Aboriginal Population and Households Projections, State of New South Wales (NSW), Australia, 2011 to...

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Aboriginal Housing Office Regions Family and Community Services Districts Indigenous Regions Remoteness Areas SEPTEMBER 2013 ABORIGINAL POPULATION AND HOUSEHOLDS PROJECTIONS, NEW SOUTH WALES 2011 TO 2031

Transcript of Aboriginal Population and Households Projections, State of New South Wales (NSW), Australia, 2011 to...

Aboriginal Housing Office RegionsFamily and Community Services Districts Indigenous RegionsRemoteness Areas

SEPTEMBER 2013

ABORIGINAL POPULATION AND HOUSEHOLDS PROJECTIONS, NEW SOUTH WALES 2011 TO 2031

NSW Aboriginal Population and Households Projections, 2011–2031 Page i

© NSW Aboriginal Housing Office, 2013

ISBN 978-0-646-92011-5

National Library of Australia Cataloguing-in-Publication entry:

Author: Dr Khalidi, Noor Ahmad.

Title: Aboriginal population projections, New South Wales, 2011 to 2031 / Noor A. Khalidi.

Publisher: NSW Aboriginal Housing Office, 2013.

ISBN: 978-0-646-92011-5 (pbk.)

Subjects: Aboriginal Australians–New South Wales–Population –Statistics.

Torres Strait Islanders–New South Wales–Population-Statistics.

Population forecasting–New South Wales–Statistics.

Other Authors/Contributors:

NSW Aboriginal Housing Office, Department of Family and Community Services.

This work is copyright under the Copyright Act 1968. However, use of the projected data, reproduction or quotation of any part of this publication is allowed given in all cases NSW Aboriginal Housing Office and Author Dr Noor A. Khalidi must be acknowledged as the source.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this publication are those of the author and do not represent the views of the NSW Aboriginal Housing Office, Department of Family and Community Services.

INQUIRIES: For further information and inquiries regarding this publication contact:

NSW Aboriginal Housing Office Department of Family and Community Services Level 6, 33 Argyle Street, Parramatta NSW 2150 Phone: 02 8836 9444 Fax: 02 9635 7695 Email: [email protected]

Produced for NSW Aboriginal Housing Office by: KRD Social Consulting Email: [email protected] Website: http://krdsocialresearch.com/

PREFACE iii

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS iv

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY v

1. BASE DATA AND PROJECTION METHODOLOGY 9

1.1 Methodology 9 1.2 Who is an Indigenous person? 9 1.3 Base Population and Regions 9 1.4 Births 12 1.5 Deaths 15 1.6 Migration 17 1.6.1 Interstate migration 17 1.6.2 Inter-regional migration 17 1.6.3 Inter-remoteness migration 18 1.6.4 Indigenous births to non-Indigenous mothers 19 1.7 Households 19

2. PROJECTION OUTCOMES 21

2.1. Population Projections 21 2.1.1 Population size and growth 21 2.1.2 Population age composition 24 2.1.3 Population sex composition 25 2.2 Households Projection Results 28 2.2.1 Household Types 30 2.2.2 Household tenure 30 2.2.3 Age of household heads 30 2.2.4 Household weekly income 30 2.2.5 Housing loans repayments 30 2.2.6 Average persons per household 30

2.3 Detailed Population Projection Outcomes 33 2.3.1 NSW Indigenous population 33 2.3.2 NSW Aboriginal Housing Office (AHO) regions 34 2.3.3 Family and Community Services (FACS) regions 37 2.3.4 NSW Indigenous regions (IREGS) 52 2.3.5 Remoteness Areas 59

2.4 Detailed Household Projections Results 64 2.4.1 Indigenous households types 64 2.4.2 Indigenous households by tenure status 71 2.4.3 Indigenous households by tenure status by FACS regions 75 2.4.4 Indigenous households by age group of household heads by FACS regions 79 2.4.5 Indigenous households by household type by FACS regions 83 2.4.6 Indigenous households by % of household income repayment of housing loans by FACS regions 87 2.4.7 Indigenous households by equalized weekly household income by FACS regions 91

3. APPENDICES 95

4. EXPLANATORY NOTES 113 Fertility 113 Sex ratio 113 Trends 113 Projections 113

5. REFERENCES 114

TABLE OF CONTENTS

NSW Aboriginal Population and Households Projections, 2011–2031 • Page ii

NSW Aboriginal Population and Households Projections, 2011–2031 Page iii

Aboriginal1 population and household projection data for future years are required for needs analysis, policy formation, program and project planning, and service delivery.

The 2011 Census of Population and Housing data has been released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) at various geographic and subject levels. The count of Aboriginal people in Australia increased by 20.5% between the 2006 and 2011 Censuses.

This large increase in Aboriginal population estimates presents a challenge, particularly for the delivery of housing to Aboriginal people. Housing is central to overcoming Indigenous disadvantage, including overcrowding and homelessness. Housing enables a stable and real opportunity to access services such as health, education, employment, recreational and community services, all of which are required to improve quality of life for Aboriginal people and help break the cycle of disadvantage that many Aboriginal people face. To assess future housing needs, updated population and household projections are needed.

To fulfil the urgent need for demographic data for future years, the NSW Aboriginal Housing Office (AHO) is pleased to present this report which the Department of Family and Community Services as well as other agencies, and data users may find useful.

The projections in this report were compiled by Noor A. Khalidi, a highly experienced demographer who worked on the AHO’s well received Indicative New South Wales Indigenous Population Projections 2006 to 2011. Dr Khalidi is a member of the Australian Bureau of Statistics’ Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Demographic Statistics Expert Advisory Group.

Mandy Young A/Chief Executive NSW Aboriginal Housing Office Department of Family and Community Services

PREFACE

NSW Aboriginal Population and Households Projections, 2011–2031 • Page iv

We would like to acknowledge the valuable assistance and timely comments provided to us by Dr Vincent Ogu and Mr John Baker of the NSW Aboriginal Housing Office, Department of Family and Community Services, during the planning and implementation of this project.

Valuable data, insights and comments were also provided to the project team by Mr Shan Shanmugamany and his staff from Housing NSW. We would like to extend our gratitude for such valuable assistance.

The project team would also like to thank members of the project steering committee for their assistance and comments.

N. Khalidi Director KRD Social Consulting

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

NSW Aboriginal Population and Households Projections, 2011–2031 Page v

Population and households projections were carried out by: New South Wales (NSW) total Indigenous and Aboriginal Housing Office (AHO) region, Family and Community Services (FACS) districts, Indigenous regions (IREG) and by the Accessibility/Remoteness Index of Australia (ARIA). The standard demographic cohort-component method of population projections was used based on the estimated resident Indigenous population on 30 June 2011 (2011 Census of Population and Housing).

These projections show that the total Indigenous population of NSW will increase from 208,364 persons on 30 June 2011 to 343,630 persons on 30 June 2031. Over the next 20 years, all NSW regions will experience positive Indigenous population growth.

Over the next 20 years, the NSW Indigenous population will grow, on average, 2.50% per year. Projections show that Indigenous populations of regional areas (both inner and outer regional areas) grow faster than the NSW Indigenous average. The Indigenous populations of Major Cities and Remote/Very Remote areas experience slower growth rates than the average NSW Indigenous population growth (Tables 12 and 13).

At 2.73% per annum and 2.61% per annum, the growth rate in the AHO Northern Region and Western Region respectively are estimated above the total NSW Indigenous population average growth rate. However, at 2.16% per year, the Sydney and South Eastern Region growth rate is slower than the average NSW Indigenous growth rate. Nevertheless, these regions cover very large and diverse areas with average annual growth rates obscuring many local variations. These local variations are better reflected in the estimated growth rates for FACS districts.

For the past 20 years, Indigenous fertility in NSW has been steadily rising. An increase in the Indigenous women’s fertility rate – measured as total fertility rate (TFR) – from 2.57 in 1996 to 2.61 in 2006 and 2.78 in 2011 has been observed. However, Indigenous fertility rate is higher in inner and outer regional areas (2.98) and much higher in remote and very remote areas (3.15).

Combined with very slow improvements in adult-age mortality rates, this has resulted in a young age-structure population. The indigenous fertility rate is not anticipated to decline in the immediate future. The projected median age is also anticipated to show little change over the next 20 years. This means the Indigenous population will remain a young-age structure for the next 20 years.

The results of the 2011 Census show that, while there are more Indigenous baby girls aged 0 to 4 than baby boys (sex ratio=97.2), the overall sex ratio (the proportion of males to females) of the Indigenous population is almost even (sex ratio=100.9). Projections show that the sex composition of NSW’s Indigenous population measured by sex ratio will not alter over the next 20 years.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

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Summary Table 1 presents the projected increase in the number of Indigenous people in the projected year by region. The table only shows the number of people added to the 2011 base-year population.

SUMMARY TABLE 1: PROJECTED NUMBER OF INDIGENOUS POPULATION INCREASE IN THE PROJECTED YEAR SINCE 2011 BY REGION

Regions 2016 2021 2026 2031

Total NSW Indigenous Population 26,529 58,550 94,831 135,266

AHO Northern Region 11,897 26,352 42,847 61,373

AHO Sydney/South Eastern Region 8,392 18,298 29,325 41,250

AHO Western Region 6,241 13,900 22,659 32,642

FACS Central Coast 1,556 3,388 5,447 7,718

FACS Far West 534 1,150 1,816 2,573

FACS Hunter New England 6,795 14,946 24,163 34,547

FACS Illawarra Shoalhaven 1,638 3,611 5,874 8,400

FACS Mid North Coast 1,701 3,798 6,214 8,937

FACS Murrumbidgee 1,619 3,599 5,895 8,543

FACS Nepean Blue Mountains 1,292 2,863 4,619 6,492

FACS Northern NSW 1,954 4,357 7,093 10,169

FACS Northern Sydney 413 861 1,331 1,833

FACS South Eastern Sydney 812 1,728 2,692 3,706

FACS South Western Sydney 1,514 3,449 5,756 8,264

FACS Southern NSW 937 2,065 3,355 4,823

FACS Sydney 809 1,647 2,460 3,314

FACS Western NSW 3,759 8,388 13,677 19,618

FACS Western Sydney 1,193 2,697 4,435 6,324

IREG Dubbo 2,348 5,207 8,490 12,326

IREG North Eastern NSW 3,262 7,107 11,472 16,522

IREG North Western 945 2,090 3,375 4,782

IREG NSW Central and North Coast 8,877 19,629 31,775 45,261

IREG Riverina-Orange 2,582 5,795 9,505 13,625

IREG South Eastern NSW 2,129 4,672 7,602 11,035

IREG Sydney Wollongong 6,387 14,051 22,612 31,716

NSW Inner Regional Areas 11,712 25,857 41,917 60,173

NSW Major Cities 10,215 22,181 35,396 49,665

NSW Outer Regional Areas 3,762 8,562 14,217 20,593

NSW Remote Areas 543 1,279 2,183 3,218

NSW Very Remote Areas 295 670 1,118 1,616

NSW Aboriginal Population and Households Projections, 2011–2031 Page vii

Projections show that over the next 20 years the number of Indigenous households will increase 135% compared with a 65% increase in the total Indigenous population growth in NSW. The increase is mainly due to growth in lone-person households and couple families without children (Table 19).

However, the average annual household growth rate is expected to slow from 6% during the period 2011–16 to 4.3% during the period 2026–31.

It is expected the fastest Indigenous household increase—5.3% per year—will occur in the Far West Region (Dubbo). The slowest Indigenous household increase—3.0% per year—will occur in the Sydney Region.

Summary Table 2, presents the projected increase in Indigenous households in the projected year by region. The table only shows the number of households added to the 2011 base-year households.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY (con’t)

NSW Aboriginal Population and Households Projections, 2011–2031 • Page viii

SUMMARY TABLE 2: PROJECTED NUMBER OF INDIGENOUS HOUSEHOLDS INCREASE IN THE PROJECTED YEAR SINCE 2011 BY REGION

Region name 2016 2021 2026 2031

Total NSW 26,016 61,141 79,496 99,956

AHO Northern Region 11,023 26,087 34,433 43,806

AHO Sydney/South Eastern Region 8,974 20,818 26,397 32,431

AHO Western Region 6,019 14,228 18,660 23,709

FACS Central Coast 8,264 19,532 25,681 32,501

FACS Far West 1,023 2,958 3,999 5,149

FACS Hunter New England 697 1,347 1,684 2,067

FACS Illawarra Shoalhaven 6,528 15,023 19,687 24,941

FACS Mid North Coast 1,314 3,496 4,641 5,919

FACS Murrumbidgee 1,933 4,117 5,339 6,717

FACS Nepean Blue Mountains 1,594 3,759 4,921 6,261

FACS Northern New South Wales 1,185 2,984 3,872 4,820

FACS Northern Sydney 1,904 4,393 5,777 7,334

FACS South Eastern Sydney 133 634 872 1,126

FACS South Western Sydney 467 1,613 2,101 2,614

FACS Southern New South Wales 1,568 3,947 5,114 6,383

FACS Sydney 839 2,027 2,680 3,422

FACS Western New South Wales 296 1,262 1,673 2,105

FACS Western Sydney 4,888 9,953 12,629 15,635

IREG Dubbo 1,647 3,628 4,507 5,463

IREG North Eastern NSW 10,674 25,253 33,379 42,616

IREG North Western 1,973 4,716 6,376 8,317

IREG Central and North Coast 2,860 6,749 8,957 11,510

IREG Riverina-Orange 1,064 2,468 3,120 3,832

IREG South Eastern NSW 2,831 6,636 8,511 10,596

IREG Sydney Wollongong 1,833 4,350 5,835 7,571

Major Cities 7,190 16,685 21,014 25,621

Inner Regional 10,401 24,178 30,864 38,083

Outer Regional 3,864 9,177 12,039 15,265

Remote 707 1,664 2,119 2,646

Very Remote 371 864 1,090 1,342

This fragmentation of the Indigenous household structures will have considerable implications for housing needs of NSW Indigenous people. Projection outcomes suggest noticeable changes in the tenure type of Indigenous dwellings over the next 20 years.

NSW Aboriginal Population and Households Projections, 2011–2031 Page 9

1.1 METHODOLOGY

The standard demographic cohort-component method of population projection was used for this study. Projections are based on:

• initial base population by males and females populations in five-year age groups; • initial base fertility levels and assumed future changes in fertility; • initial base mortality levels and assumed future changes in mortality; and • initial base estimates of migration and assumed future changes.

1.2 WHO IS AN INDIGENOUS PERSON?

Since 1996, a standard Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander identification question has been used by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) in censuses. In the 1996 Census, for the first time, people were given the choice to identify themselves as being of both Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander origin. The accompanying instruction to the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander identification question was changed for the 1996 Census to allow people to mark both of the ‘yes’ boxes (ABS, 2011):

A definition of an Aboriginal or Torres Strait Islander person was given in a High Court judgement in the case of Commonwealth v. Tasmania (1983) 46 ALR 625. This definition states that an Aboriginal or Torres Strait Islander is a person of Aboriginal or Torres Strait Islander descent who identifies as an Aboriginal or Torres Strait Islander and is accepted as such by the community in which he or she lives.

Although the census question relates to descent, some respondents will interpret the question to mean both descent and identification. The question also does not take into account the third part of the definition—community acceptance.

1.3 BASE POPULATION AND REGIONS

The most recent Census of Population and Housing was conducted by the ABS on 9 August 2011. We have used the 2011 Census outcomes as the basis for projections in this report.

Population and households projections are presented by NSW total Indigenous and the following regions:

• three NSW Aboriginal Housing Office (AHO) regions; • fifteen Family and Community Services (FACS) regions; • seven Indigenous regions (IREG); and • five remoteness areas (RA).

1. BASE DATA AND PROJECTION METHODOLOGY

Is the person of Aboriginal or Torres Strait Islander origin?

For persons of both Aboriginal or Torres Strait Islander origin, mark both ‘Yes’ boxes.

q No

q Yes, Aboriginal

q Yes, Torres Strait Islander

Table 1 shows counts of persons at places of usual residence on Census Night (9 August 2011) by various NSW regions and remoteness area.

TABLE 1: INDIGENOUS POPULATION (INGP) BY SEX (SEXP), NSW REGIONS AND REMOTENESS AREAS, PERSONS BY PLACE OF USUAL RESIDENCE ON CENSUS NIGHT, 9 AUGUST 2011

NSW regions and remoteness areas* Males Females Persons

Aboriginal Housing Office (AHO) regions:

Northern 34,090 35,395 69,485

Sydney/South Eastern 31,073 31,934 63,007

Western 19,399 19,821 39,220

No Usual Address/Migratory/Offshore etc. 521 392 913

AHO Regions Total 85,083 87,542 172,625

Family and Community Services (FACS) regions:

Central Coast 4,433 4,587 9,020

Far West 1,431 1,592 3,023

Hunter New England 19,117 19,885 39,002

Illawarra Shoalhaven 5,317 5,441 10,758

Mid North Coast 4,962 5,121 10,083

Murrumbidgee (including Albury) 5,129 5,196 10,325

Nepean Blue Mountains 4,594 4,618 9,212 Northern NSW 5,578 5,802 11,380 Northern Sydney 1,231 1,239 2,470

South Eastern Sydney 2,960 2,884 5,844

South Western Sydney 6,234 6,837 13,071

Southern NSW 2,850 2,818 5,668

Sydney 2,566 2,773 5,339

Western NSW 12,368 12,651 25,019

Western Sydney 5,792 5,706 11,498

No Usual Address/Migratory/Offshore etc. 521 392 913

FACS total 85,083 87,542 172,625

Indigenous Regions (IREG)*:

Dubbo 5,585 5,754 11,339 North Eastern NSW 8,415 8,768 17,183

North Western NSW 3,702 3,988 7,690

NSW Central and North Coast 25,688 26,631 52,319

Riverina-Orange 10,086 10,085 20,171 South Eastern NSW 5,383 5,451 10,834 Sydney Wollongong 25,699 26,471 52,170 No Usual Address/Migratory/Offshore etc. 525 394 919

IREG total 85,083 87,542 172,625

Remoteness areas:

Major Cities of Australia 37,029 38,219 75,248

Inner Regional Australia 28,440 29,242 57,682

Outer Regional Australia 15,176 15,461 30,638

Remote Australia 2,552 2,756 5,308

Very Remote Australia 1,364 1,472 2,836

No Usual Address/Migratory/Offshore etc. 521 392 913

Remoteness areas total: 85,083 87,542 172,625

Source: Regional sums are derived from ABS 2011 Census local government area (LGA) data releases using the Table Builder 2013. Remoteness data are extracted from ABS 2011 Census releases using the Table Builder 2013. * ABS Australian Standard Geographic System (ASGS) 2011.

NSW Aboriginal Population and Households Projections, 2011–2031 • Page 10

NSW Aboriginal Population and Households Projections, 2011–2031 Page 11

Australia’s first national census was held in 1911. Since 1961 there has been a census every five years (the frequency specified in the Census and Statistics Act 1905). The objective of the census is to count the number of people in Australia on Census Night to identify the key characteristics of the people and of the dwellings in which they live.

Following changes to the Australian Constitution as a result of the 1967 referendum, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples were included in official estimates of the Australian population. From the 1971 Census onwards, the ABS used improved strategies to count Australia’s Indigenous population.

However, for several reasons, the reported counts of people at places of usual residence on Census Night (as presented in Table 1) cannot be used for population projections. Firstly, the base population for projections needs to be the mid-year (30 June) estimate, rather than the census night estimate—census counts should be adjusted with births, deaths and migration data from 9 August back to 30 June. Secondly, the census count needs to be adjusted for possible under-coverage/under-reporting using the post enumeration survey (PES) results. The estimates resulting from these adjustments are known as the estimated resident population (ERP) at 30 June 2011.

Base population for population and household projections are the estimated resident Indigenous population of NSW at 30 June 2011. ABS published preliminary estimates of the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander and non-Indigenous resident population as at 30 June 2011 in Australian Demographic Statistics (cat. no. 3101.0) on 27 September 2012. The ERPs are adjusted population census counts to 30 June 2011 taking into consideration births, deaths, PES estimates and migration estimates.

2011 Census estimates were published by five-year age groups, sex and state/territory. No further disaggregation will be available until final estimates are compiled and released. Based on the above adjustments, the estimated resident Indigenous population of NSW at 30 June 2011 was 208,364 persons (Table 2) compared to the census counts of 172,625 persons on 9 August 2011. This represents an increase of 20.7%.

1. BASE DATA AND PROJECTION METHODOLOGY (con’t)

TABLE 2: ESTIMATED RESIDENT INDIGENOUS POPULATION IN FIVE-YEAR AGE GROUPS, AT 30 JUNE 2011, NSW

Age groups Males Females Persons Males Females Persons

0–4 13,217 12,849 26,066 12.7% 12.3% 12.5%

5–9 12,615 11,827 24,442 12.2% 11.3% 11.7%

10–14 12,729 12,066 24,795 12.3% 11.5% 11.9%

15–19 12,113 11,539 23,652 11.7% 11.0% 11.4%

20–24 9,356 8,879 18,235 9.0% 8.5% 8.8%

25–29 7,194 7,238 14,432 6.9% 6.9% 6.9%

30–34 5,598 5,894 11,492 5.4% 5.6% 5.5%

35–39 5,818 6,490 12,308 5.6% 6.2% 5.9%

40–44 5,756 6,558 12,314 5.5% 6.3% 5.9%

45–49 5,093 5,864 10,957 4.9% 5.6% 5.3%

50–54 4,648 4,854 9,502 4.5% 4.6% 4.6%

55–59 3,443 3,640 7,083 3.3% 3.5% 3.4%

60–64 2,556 2,681 5,237 2.5% 2.6% 2.5%

65–69 1,641 1,736 3,377 1.6% 1.7% 1.6%

70–74 972 1,146 2,118 0.9% 1.1% 1.0%

75 and over 965 1,389 2,354 0.9% 1.3% 1.1%

All ages ERP at 30 June 2011 103,714 104,650 208,364 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

Source: Australian Demographic Statistics, Table 11, Cat. No. 3101.0, 18 Dec 2012.

At the national level, the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people count increased by 20.5% between the 2006 and 2011 Censuses. These estimates of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Australians (based on the 2011 Census and PES results) were higher than expected when compared with the corresponding 2006 estimates.

The estimated preliminary resident Aboriginal population of NSW at 30 June 2011 constitutes 31% of the total Indigenous population of Australia and 2.9% of the total NSW population.

At sub-state levels, the ABS has published estimates of Aboriginal population by sex but not by age-groups. As a result, the base population by age-groups and sex for various regions used in these projections have been derived by prorate. The census counts of place of usual residence by age-groups and sex were adjusted using the final rebased estimated resident population by state level age-groups.

1.4 BIRTHS

Annually, on average, Indigenous mothers give birth to 2,500 babies in NSW. In addition, there are about 1,400 births by non-Indigenous mothers and Aboriginal fathers. These births are also classified as Indigenous births and represent about 36% of the total Indigenous births (Table 4).

The observed fertility level and pattern of the non-Indigenous mothers differs from the Indigenous mothers. These figures are presented separately—to combine them would result in incorrect, low estimates of fertility rates for Indigenous mothers during the years projected. Indigenous births to non-Indigenous mothers are treated in this report as a special form of migration. This is because this form of population influx affects the population size of people under the age of one year.

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NSW Aboriginal Population and Households Projections, 2011–2031 Page 13

1.4 BIRTHS (CON’T)

To determine the level and age pattern of Indigenous fertility in NSW we used two different approaches. First, data on registered births to Indigenous women by age for years 2006– 2010 were used to provide estimates of the level and pattern of Indigenous fertility (direct estimation method). This method is also known as ‘period fertility’. Secondly, estimates of the level and pattern of Indigenous fertility in NSW were obtained by applying an indirect method of fertility estimation using census data on the number of women by age groups by number of children ever born (CEB). We then compared the results of these two estimation methods to find out the fertility regime of the Indigenous women in NSW.

The 2006 and 2011 Census data on CEB by age groups of mothers have been extensively used in these projections.

A comparison of the results of the two fertility estimation methods suggests that Indigenous birth registration data in NSW are still not complete enough to provide reliable fertility estimates. Therefore, the results of the indirect fertility estimates based on census outcomes appear more reliable and are used in these projections.

The outcomes of the CEB indirect fertility estimation from 1996, 2006 and 2011 Censuses show consistent patterns of fertility. They also show a marginal increase in the Indigenous women’s fertility rate from 2.57 in 1996 to 2.61 in 2006 and 2.78 in 2011.

The observed fertility rates for the 2011 base year are presented in Table 3 below by three broad remoteness areas. Due to the small number of observations in some areas, we have combined the ABS five remoteness areas (Major Cities, Inner Regional Areas, Outer Regional Areas, Remote Areas and Very Remote Areas) into three broad remoteness areas (Major Cities, Regional Areas and Remote Areas).

Table 3 shows that Indigenous fertility differs by remoteness in NSW. With a mean childbearing age of 26.8 years, the TFR of Indigenous women in Major Cities is estimated at 2.49. In Regional NSW the mean childbearing age is estimated to be slightly younger than Major Cities at 25.4 years with a TFR of 3.0. In Remote NSW the mean childbearing age is estimated to be younger than Major Cities and Regional NSW at 24.7 years with a higher TFR of 3.15.

1. BASE DATA AND PROJECTION METHODOLOGY (con’t)

TABLE 3: CALCULATION OF BASE YEAR ABORIGINAL WOMEN’S FERTILITY RATES, FROM INFORMATION ON CHILDREN EVER BORN AND WOMEN WHO RESPONDED IN NSW 2011 CENSUS OF POPULATION AND HOUSING

Totalchildren

ever born

Totalwomen

responded

Mean number of children ever born

Fertilityconsistent with

CEB (ASFR)*

Major Cities

15–19 years 259 3,402 0.076 0.048

20–24 years 1,351 2,789 0.484 0.106

25–29 years 2,738 2,386 1.148 0.164

30–34 years 3,886 1,939 2.004 0.134

35–39 years 4,808 2,045 2.351 0.025

40–44 years 5,338 2,126 2.511 0.014

45–49 years 4,960 1,924 2.578 0.005

Mean age of childbearing: 26.79

Total fertility rate: 2.49

Regional

15–19 years 487 4,310 0.113 0.074

20–24 years 2,583 3,129 0.826 0.192

25–29 years 4,610 2,562 1.799 0.175

30–34 years 5,658 2,238 2.528 0.114

35–39 years 7,587 2,603 2.915 0.037

40–44 years 7,795 2,666 2.924 0.004

45–49 years 7,042 2,387 2.950 0.001

Mean age of childbearing: 25.36

Total fertility rate: 2.98

Remote and Very Remote Areas

15–19 years 78 349 0.223 0.117

20–24 years 287 291 0.986 0.166

25–29 years 440 230 1.913 0.207

30–34 years 608 211 2.882 0.129

35–39 years 822 264 3.114 0.002

40–44 years 879 272 3.232 0.006

45–49 years 768 241 3.187 0.002

Mean age of childbearing: 24.67

Total fertility rate: 3.15

NSW

15–19 years 824 8,061 0.102 0.065

20–24 years 4221 6,209 0.680 0.151

25–29 years 7,788 5,178 1.504 0.172

30–34 years 10,152 4,388 2.314 0.127

35–39 years 13,217 4,912 2.691 0.031

40–44 years 14,012 5,064 2.767 0.008

45–49 years 12,770 4,552 2.805 0.003

Mean age of childbearing: 25.92

Total fertility rate: 2.78

*Estimation of age-specific fertility rates (ASFR) using Arraiga’s approach for one point in time (Mortara).

The observed fertility levels from the 2011 Census by remoteness areas were incorporated in population projection processes. A description of the methods of fertility estimation used in this paper is included in the explanatory notes

NSW Aboriginal Population and Households Projections, 2011–2031 • Page 14

NSW Aboriginal Population and Households Projections, 2011–2031 Page 15

1.5 DEATHS

Mortality levels are a key component of Indigenous population projection. These are generally measured by the expectations of life at birth and age-sex pattern of mortality and are usually taken from Indigenous life tables.

The ABS publication Experimental Life Tables for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Australians, 2005-2007 indicates that the NSW expectation of life at birth for Indigenous males, for the period 2005–2007, was estimated at 69.9 years and 75.0 years for Indigenous females (ABS, May 2009, p. 32).

Previously published estimates of life expectancies were 60.0 years for Indigenous males and 65.1 years for Indigenous females (ABS 2006, Deaths Australia 3302.0, p. 77).The ABS 2009 estimates, if correct, dramatically reduce Indigenous mortality levels. This will have considerable implications on the projected size of the Indigenous population in future years.

Subsequent to this ABS publication, Queensland Health published a discussion paper presenting, for the first time in Australia, estimated Indigenous life tables by remoteness (Queensland Health, 2012). This is a major advance in our understanding of Indigenous mortality levels and patterns in regional and remote areas as it is widely believed that mortality differs by remoteness. This is the case for the general as well as the Indigenous population. However, until the Queensland Health publication there was no hard data to support this belief.

Mortality differs by remoteness because of differences in the availability of health and medical services in major cities, regional and remote areas, and people’s unequal access to such services (Table 4).

1. BASE DATA AND PROJECTION METHODOLOGY (con’t)

TABLE 4: INDIGENOUS PROBABILITIES OF DEATH FROM AGE (X) TO THE NEXT AGE GROUP BY SEX AND BY QLD REMOTENESS CATEGORIES AND TOTAL NSW, 2005–2007

Using the Queensland estimated mortality differentials by remoteness and the estimated levels of mortality for NSW by the ABS, we have estimated the probable mortality levels by remoteness in NSW (Table 5).

We also examined the NSW death registration data (adjusted for completeness) and estimated ERPs by sex for the years 2006 and 2011. This revealed a positive trend in the resultant mortality rates for Indigenous people of NSW. The estimated life expectancies at birth show a 0.369 year improvement per year for males and 0.256 years improvement per year for Indigenous females. Estimates for projection years are presented in Table 5.

To improve population projection outcomes, the estimated mortality differentials by remoteness and the expected trends are incorporated in the projections.

Qld 2005–07 Major Cities*

Qld 2005–07 Regional*

Qld 2005–07 Remote and Very Remote*

NSW 2005-07**

M F M F M F M F

Age (x) q(x,n) q(x,n) q(x,n) q(x,n) q(x,n) q(x,n) q(x,n) q(x,n)

0 0.0109 0.0093 0.0113 0.0072 0.0125 0.0068 0.0097 0.0077

1 0.0015 0.0008 0.0028 0.0015 0.0055 0.0018 0.0016 0.0013

5 0.0015 0.0005 0.0017 0.0007 0.0030 0.0020 0.0008 0.0006

10 0.0025 0.0008 0.0016 0.0011 0.0032 0.0023 0.0008 0.0004

15 0.0043 0.0025 0.0036 0.0026 0.0070 0.0047 0.0027 0.0007

20 0.0061 0.0035 0.0062 0.0046 0.0134 0.0060 0.0062 0.0016

25 0.0091 0.0046 0.0091 0.0061 0.0193 0.0086 0.0081 0.0057

30 0.0122 0.0048 0.0126 0.0071 0.0262 0.0126 0.0119 0.0076

35 0.0150 0.0069 0.0185 0.0115 0.0320 0.0215 0.0223 0.0095

40 0.0170 0.0134 0.0254 0.0167 0.0439 0.0330 0.0237 0.0125

45 0.0252 0.0228 0.0398 0.0279 0.0541 0.0393 0.0329 0.0176

50 0.0372 0.0309 0.0583 0.0318 0.0720 0.0577 0.0473 0.0251

55 0.0487 0.0416 0.0856 0.0518 0.0972 0.0711 0.0690 0.0378

60 0.0745 0.0501 0.1125 0.0738 0.1651 0.1339 0.1100 0.0698

65 0.1151 0.0684 0.1701 0.1198 0.2505 0.1620 0.1634 0.1103

70 0.1847 0.1246 0.2332 0.1805 0.2761 0.2143 0.2285 0.1841

75 0.2492 0.1588 0.3872 0.2480 0.3138 0.2154 0.3281 0.2637

80 0.3033 0.3570 0.5038 0.3681 0.3952 0.3153 0.4745 0.3985

85 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000Life expectancy at birth 73.88 76.88 68.66 74.21 64.53 70.71 69.88 75.05

Sources: *Queensland Health, 2012. **ABS, May 2009, p. 32.

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TABLE 5: ESTIMATED INDIGENOUS LIFE EXPECTANCIES BY REMOTENESS 2006, 2011 AND 2031, NSW

Estimated observed changes in mortality from 2006 to 2011:Males 0.369 Years per year improvement Females 0.256 Years per year improvement

1.6 MIGRATION

In the absence of international migration (and apart from the effects of births to Indigenous mothers and deaths), population influx due to interstate migration affects the size, age and sex distribution of NSW’s total Indigenous population. Regional population numbers are also affected by inter-regional migration. Similarly, Indigenous births to non-Indigenous mothers affect the size of the Indigenous population.

The 2001 and 2006 Census returns did not register any significant evidence of population influx due to change of identification. This phenomenon is yet to be examined for the 2011 Census outcomes. Identification change is therefore not factored in these projections.

Population and household data on place of usual residence from the 2011 Census counts and place of usual residence 5 years before the 2011 Census were extracted using the ABS online services (Table Builder). Internal migration data at the state and regional levels were derived from the census question on places of usual residence 5 years before the census. These were compared with data on places of usual residence on Census Night.

1.6.1 Interstate migrationInterstate migration continues to negatively affect the size of the NSW Indigenous population. The 2011 Census data on places of usual residence 5 years before the census shows that, on average, the state annual net Indigenous migration is around -317 persons. The derived similar figure from the 2006 Census was -350 (AHO, 2008, p. 8).

1.6.2 Inter-regional migrationInter-regional migration data were derived from the census question on places of usual residence 5 years before the census compared with data on places of usual residence on Census Night. Local government area (LGA) data were used as the basis for deriving regional aggregates. Cross tabulation of LGAs against the above questions provided a matrix from which we could construct in-migrants, out-migrants and net LGA migration data by age groups and sex. We then incorporated the above data in the population projections.

1. BASE DATA AND PROJECTION METHODOLOGY (con’t)

* Estimated by the author using Queensland remoteness differentials (Queensland Health, 2012) and the ABS estimates for NSW (ABS, 2009).

Years Sex Major Cities* Regional* Remote/Very Remote* State

Qld 2005–07 Males 73.88 68.66 64.53 68.75

Females 76.88 74.21 70.71 73.99

NSW 2005–07 Males 75.12 69.81 65.61 69.90

Females 77.94 75.23 71.68 75.00

NSW 2011 Males 76.96 71.65 67.45 71.75

Females 79.22 76.50 72.96 76.28

NSW 2031 Males 78.81 73.50 69.30 73.59

Females 80.49 77.78 74.23 77.56

TABLE 6: REGIONAL AND REMOTENESS MIGRATION FROM 2006 TO 2011, NSW

1.6.3 Inter-remoteness migrationABS will release detailed census data by remoteness areas in August 2013. We therefore had no option but to derive migration estimates using the available data by LGAs and the ABS LGA to remoteness concordances (ABS, January 2013). For the remoteness areas, the data were derived from aggregating LGAs by remoteness. LGAs were assigned to remoteness areas based on the remoteness classification of the place of usual residence of most of their population.

Regions and Remoteness 5- year net migration Annual net migration

Males Females Persons Males Females PersonsAHO regions

AHO Northern 597 611 1208 119 122 242

AHO Sydney/South Eastern -337 -326 -663 -67 -65 -133

AHO Western -87 -89 -176 -17 -18 -35

NSW Excluding Undefined/NA 173 196 369 35 39 74NSW Undefined/NA/NS/No UR -1007 -947 -1954 -201 -189 -391

NSW Including Undefined/NA -834 -751 -1585 -167 -150 -317

FACS regions

Central Coast 147 158 305 29 32 61

Far West 2 15 17 0 3 3

Hunter New England 302 224 526 60 45 105

Illawarra Shoalhaven 102 77 179 20 15 36

Mid North Coast 96 70 166 19 14 33

Murrumbidgee -83 21 -62 -17 4 -12

Nepean Blue Mountains -30 -59 -89 -6 -12 -18

Northern NSW 52 159 211 10 32 42

Northern Sydney 42 30 72 8 6 14

South Eastern Sydney ‐-19 ‐-15 ‐-34 ‐-4 ‐-3 ‐-7

South Western Sydney ‐-153 ‐-236 ‐-389 ‐-31 ‐-47 ‐-78

Southern NSW 15 92 107 3 18 21

Sydney ‐-4 19 15 ‐-1 4 3

Western NSW ‐-23 ‐-119 ‐-142 ‐-5 ‐-24 -28

Western Sydney ‐-273 ‐-240 ‐-513 ‐-55 ‐-48 ‐-103

NSW Excluding Undefined/NA 173 196 369 35 39 74

NSW Undefined/NA/NS/No UR ‐-1007 ‐-947 ‐-1954 ‐-201 ‐-189 ‐-391

NSW Including Undefined/NA ‐-834 ‐-751 ‐-1585 ‐-167 ‐-150 ‐-317

REMOTENESS AREAS

Major Cities of Australia 8 ‐-50 ‐-42 2 ‐-10 ‐-8

Inner Regional Australia 504 709 1213 101 142 243

Outer Regional Australia ‐-138 ‐-267 ‐-405 ‐-28 ‐-53 ‐-81

Remote Australia ‐-130 ‐-129 ‐-259 ‐-26 ‐-26 -52

Very Remote Australia ‐-71 ‐-67 ‐-138 ‐-14 ‐-13 -28

NSW Excluding Undefined/NA 173 196 369 35 39 74

NSW Undefined/NA/NS/No UR ‐-1007 ‐-947 ‐-1954 ‐-201 ‐-189 ‐-391

NSW Including Undefined/NA ‐-834 ‐-751 ‐-1585 ‐-167 ‐-150 ‐-317

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TABLE 7: BIRTHS OF ABORIGINAL AND TORRES STRAIT ISLANDER PEOPLES, NEW SOUTH WALES, 2006 TO 2010

1.6.4 Indigenous births to non-Indigenous mothersAnnually in NSW, about 36% of the total Indigenous births are to non-Indigenous women and Indigenous fathers (Table 7). In these projections, births to non-Indigenous mothers are treated as a special type of population influx (migration) that will affect the size of the population under the age of one year during the projected years. In projecting the number of Aboriginal births to non-Indigenous mothers with Indigenous fathers (paternal fertility), we applied age-specific fertility rates of non-Indigenous mothers to the estimates of the Indigenous male population by age group 5 years older than mothers. This was because Indigenous fathers were more than 3 years older than the non-Indigenous mothers.

1.7 HOUSEHOLDS

In the 2011 Census an Indigenous household is defined as:

“If a household has at least one Indigenous person who is a usual resident and who was present on Census Night it will be classified as a Household with Indigenous persons.” (ABS, 2901.0, Census Dictionary, 2011 - INGDWTD).

This definition is applied to all “occupied private dwellings”:

1. Household with Indigenous person(s) 2. Other Households 3. Not applicable.

Based on the above definition, the total number of persons living in Indigenous households is usually more than the total counted or projected Indigenous population for a given area. This is because the household may include non-Indigenous persons as well.

A census of population and housing is held every five years. It gives a count of households, families and individuals at the census reference date. Household projections in this report are based on household (dwellings) counts from the 2011 Census, the observed trends in the relativities over the last three censuses, ERP for 30 June 2011, and our population projections for 30 June 2016 to 2031 (Table 8).

1. BASE DATA AND PROJECTION METHODOLOGY (con’t)

2006-2010 5 Year Average

Births to Aboriginal and Torres Strait

Islander mothers

Indigenous Births to non-Indigenous

mothers

Births to Aboriginal and Torres Strait

Islander mothers

Indigenous births to non-Indigenous

mothers

Age of mother

15–19 years 2,384 1,054 477 211

20–24 years 3,862 2,121 772 424

25–29 years 2,931 1,874 586 375

30–34 years 2,061 1,297 412 259

35–39 years 1,115 667 223 133

40–44 years 148 55 30 11

45–49 years 9 0 2 0

Total Births 12,510 7,068 2,502 1,414

Source: Derived from ABS, Births, Australia, 2011, 25 October 2012

TABLE 8: NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS WITH INDIGENOUS PERSON(S), BY SELECTED HOUSEHOLD INDICATORS 2001, 2006 AND 2011, NSW

For these projections we have adapted a propensity method based on that developed by McDonald and Kippen and used in Household Trends and Projections: Victoria, 1986–2011. The method identifies relativities from the Census of Population and Housing for persons living in various household types. In these projections, we used households living arrangement types (see Table 8 above).

The trends observed in the relativities over the last three censuses were assumed to continue up to 2031. We applied this scenario to projected populations to estimate the number of households by various households living arrangements.

Source: Derived from data provided by the ABS as a special consultancy to NSW Aboriginal Housing Office, August 2013.

HOUSEHOLD INDICATORS 2001 2006 2011

Household type Couple only 6,140 8,094 11,055

Couple with dependent children 14,391 15,151 18,925

Other household 9,422 11,430 15,597

Single parent with dependent children 12,340 14,425 17,155

Single person 5,951 8,150 11,180

Total households 48,244 57,250 73,912

Households by tenure status Being purchased 9,286 13,123 19,185

Fully owned 7,549 7,588 9,868

Rented total: 28,871 33,186 40,868

Private and real estate agent 13,811 16,664 22,096

State housing authority 10,405 12,035 14,049

Community or co-operative housing 3,050 2,787 2,865

Other landlord and not stated 1,605 1,700 1,858

Other tenure type 1,332 950 1,327

Tenure type not stated 1,206 2,403 2,664

Total households 48,244 57,250 73,912

Age of household heads Under 20 1,001 1,300 1,258

20–24 4,222 4,993 5,721

25–44 26,735 28,745 34,301

45–54 8,792 11,580 16,269

55–64 4,541 6,325 9,716

65–79 2,533 3,717 5,745

80 and over 420 590 902

Total households 48,244 57,250 73,912

Households’ equalised weekly income

Above Sydney median 2,001 2,006 2,011

Below or equal to NSW median 33,627 40,533 50,210

From NSW median to below or equal to Sydney median 3,659 3,216 4,315

Total households 48,244 57,250 73,912

Housing loans repayments (% of income)

30-50% 7,125 10,391 13,897

30% or less 28,147 29,121 37,246

More than 50% 3,216 6,095 8,907

Not applicable 10,139 10,854 13,862

Total households 48,628 56,461 73,912

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TABLE 9: PROJECTED TOTAL INDIGENOUS POPULATION IN NSW BY REGIONS AND REMOTENESS AREAS, 2011 TO 2031

2.1. POPULATION PROJECTIONS

2.1.1 Population size and growthThese projections show that the total Indigenous population of NSW will increase from 208,364 persons on 30 June 2011 to 343,630 persons on 30 June 2031. During the next 20 years, all NSW regions will experience positive Indigenous population growth.

The total projected Indigenous population of NSW from 2011 to 2016, 2021, 2026 and 2031 is presented in Table 9 below by various regions and remoteness areas.

2. PROJECTION OUTCOMES

Regions 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031

Total NSW Indigenous population 208,364 234,893 266,914 303,195 343,630

NSW Aboriginal Housing Office (AHO) regions:

AHO Northern Region 84,336 96,233 110,688 127,183 145,709

AHO Sydney/South Eastern Region 76,452 84,844 94,750 105,777 117,702

AHO Western Region 47,576 53,817 61,476 70,235 80,218

Indigenous (IREG)*:

IREG Dubbo 13,759 16,107 18,966 22,249 26,085

IREG North Eastern NSW 20,850 24,112 27,957 32,322 37,372

IREG North Western 9,329 10,274 11,419 12,704 14,111

IREG NSW Central and North Coast 63,489 72,366 83,118 95,264 108,750

IREG Riverina-Orange 24,480 27,062 30,275 33,985 38,105

IREG South Eastern NSW 13,148 15,277 17,820 20,750 24,183

IREG Sydney Wollongong 63,309 69,696 77,360 85,921 95,025

NSW Family and Community Services (FACS):

FACS Central Coast 10,952 12,508 14,340 16,399 18,670

FACS Far West 3,664 4,198 4,814 5,480 6,237

FACS Hunter New England 47,463 54,258 62,409 71,626 82,010

FACS Illawarra Shoalhaven 13,058 14,696 16,669 18,932 21,458

FACS Mid North Coast 12,238 13,939 16,036 18,452 21,175

FACS Murrumbidgee** 12,829 14,448 16,428 18,724 21,372

FACS Nepean Blue Mountains 11,177 12,469 14,040 15,796 17,669

FACS Northern NSW 13,845 15,799 18,202 20,938 24,014

FACS Northern Sydney 2,991 3,404 3,852 4,322 4,824

FACS South Eastern Sydney 7,658 8,470 9,386 10,350 11,364

FACS South Western Sydney 15,858 17,372 19,307 21,614 24,122

FACS Southern NSW 6,718 7,655 8,783 10,073 11,541

FACS Sydney 5,924 6,733 7,571 8,384 9,238

FACS Western NSW 30,039 33,798 38,427 43,716 49,657

FACS Western Sydney 13,954 15,147 16,651 18,389 20,278

(continued next page)

On average, the NSW Indigenous population will grow 2.50% per year during the next 20 years. Projections show that Indigenous populations of Inner and Outer regional areas grow faster than the NSW Indigenous average, while Indigenous populations of Major Cities and Remote/Very Remote areas experience slower growth rates than the average Indigenous NSW population growth.

At 2.73% per annum and 2.61% per annum the growth rate in the AHO Northern Region and Western Region respectively are estimated above the total NSW Indigenous population average growth rate. However at 2.16% per year, the AHO Sydney South Eastern Region growth is slower than the average NSW Indigenous growth rate. These regions cover very large and diverse areas and the average annual growth rates hide many local variations. These local variations are better reflected in the estimated growth rates of much smaller FACS regions.

The projected growth rates of the Indigenous population of NSW from 2011 to 2016, 2021, 2026 and 2031 are presented in Table 10 by various regions and remoteness areas.

* ABS Australian Standard Geographic System (ASGS) 2011. **Including Albury. *** ABS Australian Standard Geographic System (ASGS) 2011.

Regions (con’t) 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031

Australian Remoteness Areas (RA)***

NSW Major Cities 85,646 95,861 107,827 121,042 135,311

NSW Inner Regional Areas 80,465 92,177 106,322 122,382 140,638

NSW Outer Regional Areas 32,041 35,803 40,603 46,258 52,634

NSW Remote Areas 6,737 7,280 8,016 8,920 9,955

NSW Very Remote Areas 3,476 3,771 4,146 4,594 5,092

NSW Aboriginal Population and Households Projections, 2011–2031 • Page 22

TABLE 9: PROJECTED TOTAL INDIGENOUS POPULATION IN NSW BY REGIONS AND REMOTENESS AREAS, 2011 TO 2031 (con’t)

NSW Aboriginal Population and Households Projections, 2011–2031 Page 23

TABLE 10: AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH RATES OF THE TOTAL INDIGENOUS PERSONS IN NSW BY REGIONS AND REMOTENESS AREAS, 2016 TO 2031

2. PROJECTION OUTCOMES (con’t)

* ABS Australian Standard Geographic System (ASGS) 2011. **Including Albury.

*** ABS Australian Standard Geographic System (ASGS) 2011.

Regions 2016 2021 2026 2031

Total NSW Indigenous population 2.40% 2.48% 2.50% 2.50%

NSW Aboriginal Housing Office (AHO) regions:

AHO Northern Region 2.64% 2.72% 2.74% 2.73%

AHO Western Region 2.47% 2.56% 2.60% 2.61%

AHO Sydney/South Eastern Region 2.08% 2.15% 2.16% 2.16%

Indigenous regions (IREG)*:

IREG Dubbo 3.15% 3.21% 3.20% 3.20%

IREG South Eastern NSW 3.00% 3.04% 3.04% 3.05%

IREG North Eastern NSW 2.91% 2.93% 2.92% 2.92%

IREG NSW Central and North Coast 2.62% 2.69% 2.71% 2.69%

IREG Riverina-Orange 2.01% 2.12% 2.19% 2.21%

IREG North Western 1.93% 2.02% 2.06% 2.07%

IREG Sydney Wollongong 1.92% 2.00% 2.04% 2.03%

NSW Family and Community Services (FACS):

FACS Northern NSW 2.64% 2.74% 2.76% 2.75%

FACS Mid North Coast 2.60% 2.70% 2.74% 2.74%

FACS Hunter New England 2.68% 2.74% 2.74% 2.73%

FACS Southern NSW 2.61% 2.68% 2.70% 2.71%

FACS Central Coast 2.66% 2.70% 2.69% 2.67%

FACS Far West 2.72% 2.73% 2.68% 2.66%

FACS Murrumbidgee** 2.38% 2.47% 2.52% 2.55%

FACS Western NSW 2.36% 2.46% 2.50% 2.51%

FACS Illawarra Shoalhaven 2.36% 2.44% 2.48% 2.48%

FACS Northern Sydney 2.58% 2.53% 2.45% 2.39%

FACS Nepean Blue Mountains 2.19% 2.28% 2.31% 2.29%

FACS Sydney 2.56% 2.45% 2.32% 2.22%

FACS South Western Sydney 1.82% 1.97% 2.06% 2.10%

FACS South Eastern Sydney 2.02% 2.03% 2.01% 1.97%

FACS Western Sydney 1.64% 1.77% 1.84% 1.87%

Australian Remoteness Areas (RA)***

NSW Inner Regional Areas 2.72% 2.79% 2.80% 2.79%

NSW Outer Regional Areas 2.22% 2.37% 2.45% 2.48%

NSW Major Cities 2.25% 2.30% 2.31% 2.29%

NSW Remote Areas 1.55% 1.74% 1.87% 1.95%

NSW Very Remote Areas 1.63% 1.76% 1.86% 1.91%

2.1.2 Population age compositionFigure 1 shows the age-structure of the NSW Indigenous males and females as a pyramid. A dent or bulge in the age-groups 20 to 39 appears to distort a perfectly shaped pyramid with a large base and a sharp peak. This seems to be as a result of a considerable decline in birth rate 30 to 44 years ago. The birth rate, thereafter, slowly started to recover. Over the past 20 years Indigenous fertility in NSW has risen steadily. Table 3 shows the increase in the Indigenous women’s fertility rate from 2.57 in 1996 to 2.61 in 2006 and 2.78 in 2011. However, Table 3 also shows that the Indigenous fertility rate is higher in regional areas (TFR=2.98) and much higher in remote and very remote areas (TFR=3.15).

FIGURE 1: NSW INDIGENOUS POPULATION AGE PYRAMID, 2011

8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 0–4 5–9

10–14 15–19 20–24 25–29 30–34 35–39 40–44 45–49 50–54 55–59 60–64 65–69 70–74 75-79

80+

Percent of Total Both Sexes

Age

-Gro

ups

Females Males

Combined with very slow improvements in adult age mortality rates, this situation has created a population with a very large base that sharply contracts in old age. In other words, a population with a very young age-structure. We have no reason to anticipate a decline in Indigenous fertility rate in the near future.

Consistent with the above observation, the projected median ages of the population show little evidence of change over the next 20 years (Table 11).

TABLE 11: MEDIAN AGE OF THE INDIGENOUS POPULATION OF NSW BY SEX, 2011 TO 2031

Median Age (Years)

Years Males Females Persons

2011 20.6 22.3 21.4

2016 21.5 22.8 22.1

2021 21.9 23.2 22.5

2026 21.6 22.8 22.2

2031 21.4 22.4 21.9

Therefore, the age structure of the Indigenous population will remain a young structure for the next 20 years as can be seen in the projected population age-pyramids for years 2021 and 2031 in Figure 2 and Figure 3.

NSW Aboriginal Population and Households Projections, 2011–2031 • Page 24

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FIGURE 2: NSW INDIGENOUS POPULATION AGE PYRAMID, 2021

8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 0–4 5–9

10–14 15–19 20–24 25–29 30–34 35–39 40–44

45–49 50–54 55–59 60–64 65–69 70–74 75-79

80+

Percent of Total Both Sexes

Age

-Gro

ups

Females Males

FIGURE 3: NSW INDIGENOUS POPULATION AGE PYRAMID, 2031

8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 0–4 5–9

10–14

15–19

20–24 25–29 30–34 35–39 40–44 45–49 50–54 55–59 60–64 65–69 70–74 75-79

80+

Percent of Total Both Sexes

Age

-Gro

ups

Females Males

2.1.3 Population sex composition

The results of the 2011 Census shows that while at ages 0 to 4 there are more Indigenous baby girls than baby boys (sex ratio=97.2), the overall sex ratio of the Indigenous population (the proportion of males to females) is almost even (sex ratio=100.9). Projection outcomes show that the sex composition of the Indigenous population of NSW measured by sex ratio will not alter over the next 20 years .

2. PROJECTION OUTCOMES (con’t)

NSW Aboriginal Population and Households Projections, 2011–2031 • Page 26

TABLE 12: SEX RATIOS OF THE INDIGENOUS POPULATION OF NSW BY REGIONS AND REMOTENESS AREAS, 2011 TO 2031

NSW, regions and remoteness areas Sex ratio 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031

NSW Indigenous population Sex ratio at birth: 97.2 96.7 96.5 96.3 96.3

AHO Northern Region Sex ratio at birth: 91.9 97.3 97.3 97.2 97.1

AHO Sydney/South Eastern Region Sex ratio at birth: 95.1 96.4 96.5 96.6 96.5

AHO Western Region Sex ratio at birth: 101.8 96.8 96.9 96.9 96.8

IREG Dubbo Sex ratio at birth: 97.8 91.0 91.9 92.3 92.8

IREG North Eastern Sex ratio at birth: 94.4 99.9 99.5 99.1 98.6

IREG North Western Sex ratio at birth: 110.8 98.6 98.5 98.3 98.0

IREG NSW Central and North Coast Sex ratio at birth: 91.2 96.0 96.2 96.2 96.1

IREG Riverina-Orange Sex ratio at birth: 101.0 101.2 100.5 100.0 99.5

IREG South Eastern Sex ratio at birth: 105.9 99.9 99.4 99.0 98.5

IREG Sydney Wollongong Sex ratio at birth: 92.8 94.9 95.1 95.1 95.1

FACS Central Coast Sex ratio at birth: 97.7 97.8 97.8 97.7 97.6

FACS Far West Sex ratio at birth: 140.8 100.5 100.0 99.6 99.1

FACS Hunter New England Sex ratio at birth: 94.0 95.7 96.0 96.0 96.0

FACS Illawarra Shoalhaven Sex ratio at birth: 107.7 94.9 95.2 95.3 95.3

FACS Mid North Coast Sex ratio at birth: 88.5 95.3 95.6 95.7 95.7

FACS Murrumbidgee Sex ratio at birth: 101.8 104.5 103.3 102.4 101.5

FACS Nepean Blue Mountains Sex ratio at birth: 98.8 93.9 94.3 94.4 94.3

FACS Northern NSW Sex ratio at birth: 84.5 103.9 102.7 102.0 101.3

FACS Northern Sydney Sex ratio at birth: 81.5 92.3 92.8 93.1 93.5

FACS South Eastern Sydney Sex ratio at birth: 89.3 96.8 96.7 96.6 96.3

FACS South Western Sydney Sex ratio at birth: 90.2 90.0 91.2 91.9 92.2

FACS Southern NSW Sex ratio at birth: 90.0 107.8 105.9 104.6 103.5

FACS Sydney Sex ratio at birth: 103.6 100.6 100.4 100.2 99.7

FACS Western NSW Sex ratio at birth: 97.1 93.9 94.5 94.7 94.8

FACS Western Sydney Sex ratio at birth: 93.0 98.3 98.0 97.8 97.5

NSW Inner Regional Sex ratio at birth: 96.9 99.3 98.9 98.7 98.3

NSW Major Cities Sex ratio at birth: 92.0 95.9 95.9 95.9 95.8

NSW Outer Regional Sex ratio at birth: 96.0 93.0 93.8 94.2 94.4

NSW Remote Sex ratio at birth: 115.2 97.5 97.2 96.9 96.5

NSW Very Remote Sex ratio at birth: 103.8 97.8 97.6 97.3 97.0

(continued next page)

NSW Aboriginal Population and Households Projections, 2011–2031 Page 27

NSW, regions and remoteness areas Sex ratio 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031

NSW Indigenous population Sex ratio of the population: 100.9 100.7 100.4 100.0 99.6

AHO Northern Region Sex ratio of the population: 101.7 101.5 101.2 100.8 100.3

AHO Sydney/South Eastern Sex ratio of the population: 100.6 100.1 99.6 99.2 98.8

AHO Western Region Sex ratio of the population: 100.1 100.2 100.1 99.9 99.5

IREG Dubbo Sex ratio of the population: 100.8 99.1 97.8 96.8 95.9

IREG North Eastern Sex ratio of the population: 102.0 102.5 102.6 102.6 102.3

IREG North Western Sex ratio of the population: 105.4 105.5 105.4 105.1 104.6

IREG NSW Central and North Coast Sex ratio of the population: 101.5 101.1 100.7 100.2 99.6

IREG Riverina-Orange Sex ratio of the population: 97.9 99.2 100.1 100.7 101.1

IREG South Eastern Sex ratio of the population: 99.1 100.0 100.5 100.7 100.6

IREG Sydney Wollongong Sex ratio of the population: 100.9 100.1 99.4 98.6 97.9

FACS Central Coast Sex ratio of the population: 101.1 100.7 100.2 99.7 99.2

FACS Far West Sex ratio of the population: 109.6 109.2 108.5 107.6 106.5

FACS Hunter New England Sex ratio of the population: 101.8 101.4 100.9 100.3 99.7

FACS Illawarra Shoalhaven Sex ratio of the population: 100.2 99.4 98.7 98.0 97.4

FACS Mid North Coast Sex ratio of the population: 100.9 100.9 100.5 100.0 99.4

FACS Murrumbidgee Sex ratio of the population: 99.8 101.4 102.5 103.3 103.7

FACS Nepean Blue Mountains Sex ratio of the population: 98.3 97.7 97.2 96.7 96.2

FACS Northern NSW Sex ratio of the population: 101.7 102.9 103.6 104.0 104.0

FACS Northern Sydney Sex ratio of the population: 98.6 97.4 96.7 96.1 95.6

FACS South Eastern Sydney Sex ratio of the population: 93.5 93.9 94.0 94.1 94.1

FACS South Western Sydney Sex ratio of the population: 107.4 105.1 102.9 101.0 99.4

FACS Southern NSW Sex ratio of the population: 96.6 99.1 101.0 102.3 103.1

FACS Sydney Sex ratio of the population: 109.8 108.7 107.7 106.9 106.1

FACS Western NSW Sex ratio of the population: 100.1 99.5 99.0 98.6 98.1

FACS Western Sydney Sex ratio of the population: 96.4 96.8 96.9 97.0 96.9

NSW Inner Regional Sex ratio of the population: 100.8 101.2 101.4 101.4 101.2

NSW Major Cities Sex ratio of the population: 100.7 100.0 99.4 98.7 98.1

NSW Outer Regional Sex ratio of the population: 100.2 99.6 99.0 98.4 97.8

NSW Remote Sex ratio of the population: 105.2 105.8 105.7 105.3 104.7

NSW Very Remote Sex ratio of the population: 106.9 106.6 106.1 105.5 104.7

Outcomes of population projections by age and sex, regions and remoteness areas are presented for years 2016, 2021, 2026 and 2031 in Section 2.3.1 Detailed projection outcomes.

2. PROJECTION OUTCOMES (con’t)

TABLE 12: SEX RATIOS OF THE INDIGENOUS POPULATION OF NSW BY REGIONS AND REMOTENESS AREAS, 2011 TO 2031 (con’t)

NSW Aboriginal Population and Households Projections, 2011–2031 • Page 28

2.2 HOUSEHOLDS PROJECTION RESULTS

Tables 13 and 14 below summarise NSW projections by selected household indicators and expected changes in these indicators over the next 20 years if the observed trends from 2001 to 2011 continue into the future.

TABLE 13: PROJECTED INDIGENOUS HOUSEHOLDS BY SELECTED HOUSEHOLDS, NSW, 2016 TO 2031

Selected household indicators 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031

Household type

Couple only 11,055 16,009 23,145 28,008 33,672

Couple with dependent children 18,925 23,779 29,637 30,888 31,954

Other household 15,597 21,881 30,714 36,073 42,079

Single parent with dependent children 17,155 21,811 27,392 28,748 29,929

Single person 11,180 16,447 24,164 29,691 36,234

Total households 73,912 99,928 135,052 153,410 173,868

Households by tenure status

Being purchased 19,185 29,060 43,614 54,442 67,136

Fully owned 9,868 12,464 15,539 16,105 16,487

Rented: 40,868 52,927 68,373 74,068 79,899

Private and real estate agent 22,096 30,121 40,773 45,946 51,224

State housing authority 14,049 17,448 21,472 22,013 22,333

Community 2,865 3,107 3,422 3,351 3,507

Other and not stated 1,858 2,251 2,706 2,759 2,834

Other tenure type 1,327 1,584 1,854 1,819 1,777

Tenure type not stated 2,664 3,893 5,674 6,974 8,569

Total households 73,912 99,928 135,053 153,408 173,868

Age of household heads

Under 20 1,258 1,447 1,643 1,568 1,496

20–24 5,721 7,118 8,721 8,893 8,964

25–44 34,301 41,869 50,401 50,286 49,380

45–54 16,269 23,660 33,986 40,473 47,439

55–64 9,716 15,203 23,466 30,027 37,817

65–79 5,745 9,206 14,571 19,154 24,826

80 and over 902 1,425 2,266 3,007 3,946

Total households 73,912 99,928 135,053 153,408 173,868

Households’ equalised weekly income

Above Sydney median 19,387 28,123 41,612 51,666 63,853

Below or equal to NSW median 50,210 66,454 86,800 94,827 102,847

From NSW median to below or equal to Sydney median

4,315 5,352 6,641 6,915 7,168

Total households 73,912 99,928 135,053 153,408 173,868

Housing loans repayments (% of income)

30% to 50% 13,897 20,157 29,089 34,934 41,413

30% or less 37,246 47,283 59,279 61,771 63,473

More than 50% 8,907 14,637 24,015 32,771 44,069

Not applicable 13,862 17,850 22,670 23,932 24,914

Total households 73,912 99,928 135,053 153,408 173,868

NSW Aboriginal Population and Households Projections, 2011–2031 Page 29

TABLE 14: CHANGES IN INDIGENOUS FAMILY STRUCTURE, NSW, 2011 TO 2031

Selected household indicators 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031

Household type

Couple only 15.0% 16.0% 17.1% 18.3% 19.4%

Couple with dependent children 25.6% 23.8% 21.9% 20.1% 18.4%

Other household 21.1% 21.9% 22.7% 23.5% 24.2%

Single parent with dependent children 23.2% 21.8% 20.3% 18.7% 17.2%

Single person 15.1% 16.5% 17.9% 19.4% 20.8%

Total households 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

Households by tenure status

Being purchased 26.0% 29.1% 32.3% 35.5% 38.6%

Fully owned 13.4% 12.5% 11.5% 10.5% 9.5%

Rented: 55.3% 53.0% 50.6% 48.3% 46.0%

Private and real estate agent 29.9% 30.1% 30.2% 29.9% 29.5%

State housing authority 19.0% 17.5% 15.9% 14.3% 12.8%

Community 3.9% 3.1% 2.5% 2.2% 2.0%

Other and not stated 2.5% 2.3% 2.0% 1.8% 1.6%

Other tenure type 1.8% 1.6% 1.4% 1.2% 1.0%

Tenure type not stated 3.6% 3.9% 4.2% 4.5% 4.9%

Total households 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

Age of household heads

Under 20 1.7% 1.4% 1.2% 1.0% 0.9%

20–24 7.7% 7.1% 6.5% 5.8% 5.2%

25–44 46.4% 41.9% 37.3% 32.8% 28.4%

45–54 22.0% 23.7% 25.2% 26.4% 27.3%

55–64 13.1% 15.2% 17.4% 19.6% 21.8%

65–79 7.8% 9.2% 10.8% 12.5% 14.3%

80 and over 1.2% 1.4% 1.7% 2.0% 2.3%

Total households 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

Households’ equalised weekly income

Above Sydney median 26.2% 28.1% 30.8% 33.7% 36.7%

Below or equal to NSW median 67.9% 66.5% 64.3% 61.8% 59.2%

From NSW median to below or equal to Sydney median

5.8% 5.4% 4.9% 4.5% 4.1%

Total households 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

Housing loans repayments (% of income)

30% to 50% 18.8% 20.2% 21.5% 22.8% 23.8%

30% or less 50.4% 47.3% 43.9% 40.3% 36.5%

More than 50% 12.1% 14.6% 17.8% 21.4% 25.3%

Not applicable 18.8% 17.9% 16.8% 15.6% 14.3%

Total households 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

2. PROJECTION OUTCOMES (con’t)

NSW Aboriginal Population and Households Projections, 2011–2031 • Page 30

2.2.1 Household typesProjections show that over the next 20 years the number of Indigenous households in NSW will increase 135% compared with a 65% increase in the total Indigenous population during this period. This large increase is mainly due to the growth in lone-person households (from 15% to 21%) and couple households with no children (from 15% to 19.4%). The fragmentation of Indigenous household structures will have considerable implications for housing needs of Indigenous people in NSW.

However, the average annual household growth rate is expected to slow down from 6% during the period 2011–16 to 4.3% during the period 2026–31.

The fastest Indigenous household increase of 5.3% is expected to occur in Far West Region (Dubbo). The slowest Indigenous household increase of 3.0% per year is expected to occur in Sydney Region.

There have been substantial changes in family structure in the last 30 years (ABS, 2002). Ageing of the population and divorce are two factors that may be contributing to these changes. The trend in changing family structure is reflected in Table 14 above.

2.2.2 Household tenure Tables 13 and 14 show Indigenous households projection outcomes by tenure types in NSW. Projection outcomes suggest noticeable changes in the tenure type of the Indigenous dwellings over the next 20 years. While the proportion of fully-owned dwellings will not change considerably, the proportion of mortgaged properties will increase from 26% in 2011 to 38.6% in 2031. On the other hand, the proportion of renting households will decrease slightly, from 55.3% in 2011 to 46% in 2031.

2.2.3 Age of household heads In 2011 nearly half of household heads were aged 25 to 44 years (46.4%). In 2031 this proportion will decrease to 28.4%. The share of those aged 45 to 54 and 54 to 64 will increase to 27.3% and 21.8% respectively.

2.2.4 Household weekly incomeProjection outcomes show that NSW Indigenous household’s weekly income will improve. Those households with an equalised weekly income above the Sydney median will increase 10 percentage points.

2.2.5 Housing loans repaymentsAs a consequence of more and more Indigenous households moving into the housing market over the next 20 years, a larger proportion of household income will be spent on housing loans.

2.2.6 Average persons per householdChanges in average number of Indigenous persons in households are presented in Table 15. Taking into account the higher-than-expected Indigenous population (2011 Census), we have estimated the equivalent re-based population for 2006 and 2001. This ensures consistency of working changes in the average household size.

NSW Aboriginal Population and Households Projections, 2011–2031 Page 31

TABLE 15: ESTIMATED INDIGENOUS HOUSEHOLDS AND PERSONS IN HOUSEHOLDS, NSW, 2001 TO 2031

Years Observed and projected households

Estimated rebased and projected indigenous

population

Average Indigenous persons per household (3 points

moving averages)

2001 48,628 135,866 2.8

2006 56,461 169,749 2.9

2011 73,912 208,364 2.7

2016 99,928 234,893 2.4

2021 135,052 266,914 2.1

2026 153,410 303,195 2.0

2031 173,868 343,630 2.0

Table 15 shows that over the next two decades, Indigenous households will become smaller. The average Indigenous household size in 2001 was 2.8 people, decreasing to 2.7 people in 2011. This is expected to decrease over the next 20 years to 2.0 persons. In reality, Indigenous households may also contain non-Indigenous persons—the above numbers indicate Indigenous persons in the household only.

This decrease in average household size is related to the increase in the number of people living alone. It may also relate to delayed marriage. In 2011 there were 11,180 Indigenous persons living alone. The proportion of people living alone will increase from 15% in 2011 to 21% in 2031. While older people are more likely to be living alone than younger people, more young people are likely to be living alone than in the past. This is one indicator of social change in Australia.

Projected regional household growth rates are presented in Table 16.

Detailed households projection outcomes are presented in Section 2.4 of this report.

2. PROJECTION OUTCOMES (con’t)

NSW Aboriginal Population and Households Projections, 2011–2031 • Page 32

TABLE 16: PROJECTED INDIGENOUS HOUSEHOLDS AND AVERAGE ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD GROWTH RATES BY REGIONS FROM 2011 TO 2031, NSW

Agency Region names 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2016 2021 2026 2031

Aboriginal Housing Office (AHO) regions

Northern 29,918 40,941 56,005 64,351 73,724 6.3% 6.3% 5.1% 4.5%

Sydney/South Eastern 27,122 36,096 47,940 53,519 59,553 5.7% 5.7% 4.5% 3.9%

Western 16,876 22,895 31,104 35,536 40,585 6.1% 6.1% 5.0% 4.4%

Indigenous regions

Central and North Coast 22,522 30,786 42,054 48,203 55,023 6.3% 6.2% 5.1% 4.5%

Dubbo 4,880 6,853 9,596 11,256 13,197 6.8% 6.8% 5.6% 5.0%

North Eastern 7,397 10,257 14,146 16,354 18,907 6.5% 6.5% 5.3% 4.7%

North Western 3,309 4,373 5,777 6,429 7,141 5.6% 5.6% 4.4% 3.8%

Riverina-Orange 8,683 11,514 15,319 17,194 19,279 5.6% 5.7% 4.6% 4.0%

South Eastern 4,665 6,498 9,015 10,500 12,236 6.6% 6.6% 5.4% 4.8%

Sydney Wollongong 22,458 29,648 39,143 43,472 48,079 5.6% 5.6% 4.4% 3.8%

Remoteness areas

Inner Regional 28,542 39,216 53,795 61,921 71,158 6.4% 6.3% 5.2% 4.6%

Major Cities 30,380 40,781 54,558 61,244 68,463 5.9% 5.9% 4.7% 4.1%

Outer Regional 11,367 15,231 20,544 23,406 26,632 5.9% 5.9% 4.8% 4.3%

Remote 2,392 3,099 4,056 4,511 5,038 5.2% 5.3% 4.2% 3.7%

Very Remote 1,234 1,605 2,098 2,324 2,576 5.3% 5.3% 4.2% 3.7%

Family and Community Services (FACS) districts

Central Coast 4,298 5,321 7,256 8,297 9,447 4.3% 5.2% 4.4% 3.9%

Far West 1,089 1,786 2,436 2,773 3,156 9.9% 8.1% 6.2% 5.3%

Hunter New England 16,554 23,082 31,577 36,241 41,495 6.6% 6.5% 5.2% 4.6%

Illawarra Shoalhaven 4,938 6,252 8,434 9,579 10,857 4.7% 5.4% 4.4% 3.9%

Mid North Coast 3,997 5,930 8,114 9,336 10,714 7.9% 7.1% 5.7% 4.9%

Murrumbidgee 4,553 6,147 8,312 9,474 10,814 6.0% 6.0% 4.9% 4.3%

Nepean Blue Mountains 4,120 5,305 7,104 7,992 8,940 5.1% 5.4% 4.4% 3.9%

Northern NSW 4,817 6,721 9,210 10,594 12,151 6.7% 6.5% 5.3% 4.6%

Northern Sydney 1,315 1,448 1,949 2,187 2,441 1.9% 3.9% 3.4% 3.1%

South Eastern Sydney 3,136 3,603 4,749 5,237 5,750 2.8% 4.1% 3.4% 3.0%

South Western Sydney 5,822 7,390 9,769 10,936 12,205 4.8% 5.2% 4.2% 3.7%

Southern NSW 2,417 3,256 4,444 5,097 5,839 6.0% 6.1% 5.0% 4.4%

Sydney 2,569 2,865 3,831 4,242 4,674 2.2% 4.0% 3.3% 3.0%

Western NSW 9,490 14,378 19,443 22,119 25,125 8.3% 7.2% 5.6% 4.9%

Western Sydney 4,797 6,444 8,425 9,304 10,260 5.9% 5.6% 4.4% 3.8%

Total NSW Total NSW 73,912 99,928 135,053 153,408 173,868 6.0% 6.0% 4.9% 4.3%

NSW Aboriginal Population and Households Projections, 2011–2031 Page 33

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2,4

82

4,6

41

2,0

08

2,0

83

4,0

90

2,20

82,

416

4,6

232,

878

2,8

315,

710

45–

49

2,0

42

2,4

284

,470

2,17

82,

595

4,7

742,

08

22,

40

44

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51,9

362,

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63,

94

22,

136

2,33

14

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7

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41,9

46

2,0

86

4,0

321,9

45

2,34

44

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82,

08

92,

515

4,6

04

2,0

02

2,32

84

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1,86

51,9

363,

80

2

55–5

91,4

301,5

60

2,9

90

1,834

2,0

05

3,8

40

1,851

2,26

74

,118

2,0

03

2,4

41

4,4

43

1,932

2,26

34

,195

60

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1,071

1,134

2,20

51,3

111,4

80

2,79

11,7

05

1,918

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231,7

392,

180

3,9

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2,35

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69

749

758

1,50

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1,039

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41,8

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4,3

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%

NSW Aboriginal Population and Households Projections, 2011–2031 Page 35

AH

O S

ydne

y/So

uth

East

ern

Reg

ion

Ind

igen

ous

Po

pul

atio

n

30 J

un

e 20

1130

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ne

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un

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ne

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31

Age

gro

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66

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99

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84

4

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All

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NSW Aboriginal Population and Households Projections, 2011–2031 • Page 36

AH

O W

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rn R

egio

n In

dig

eno

us P

op

ulat

ion

30 J

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1%

NSW Aboriginal Population and Households Projections, 2011–2031 Page 37

2.3.

3 Fa

mily

and

Co

mm

unity

Ser

vice

s (F

AC

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FAC

S C

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NSW Aboriginal Population and Households Projections, 2011–2031 • Page 38

FAC

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6%

NSW Aboriginal Population and Households Projections, 2011–2031 Page 39

FAC

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5,6

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5,58

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111,5

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1,277

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1,227

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gro

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NSW Aboriginal Population and Households Projections, 2011–2031 • Page 40

FAC

S Ill

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ra S

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have

n In

dig

eno

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ion

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8%

NSW Aboriginal Population and Households Projections, 2011–2031 Page 41

FAC

S M

id N

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h C

oas

t Ind

igen

ous

Po

pul

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n

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NSW Aboriginal Population and Households Projections, 2011–2031 • Page 42

FAC

S M

urru

mb

idge

e In

dig

eno

us P

op

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ion

30 J

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%

NSW Aboriginal Population and Households Projections, 2011–2031 Page 43

FAC

S N

epea

n B

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Mo

unta

ins

Ind

igen

ous

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pul

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n

30 J

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2.29

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NSW Aboriginal Population and Households Projections, 2011–2031 • Page 44

FAC

S N

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ous

Po

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2436

61

3324

5756

43

99

80

+6

344

015

2439

2430

5429

45

7539

46

86

All

ages

1,50

61,4

85

2,9

91

1,724

1,679

3,4

04

1,958

1,89

43,

852

2,20

42,

118

4,3

222,

46

62,

358

4,8

24

Ave

rage

ann

ual 2

011

to 2

031

gro

wth

rate

2.39

%

NSW Aboriginal Population and Households Projections, 2011–2031 Page 45

FAC

S N

ort

hern

NSW

Ind

igen

ous

Po

pul

atio

n

30 J

un

e 20

1130

Ju

ne

2016

30 J

un

e 20

2130

Ju

ne

2026

30 J

un

e 20

31

Age

gro

ups

Mal

esFe

mal

esTo

tal

Mal

esFe

mal

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tal

Mal

esFe

mal

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Mal

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mal

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Mal

esFe

mal

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0–4

94

479

81,7

42

1,025

1,06

42,

08

91,2

311,2

64

2,4

95

1,39

81,4

262,

824

1,58

01,6

01

3,18

1

5–9

86

48

201,6

84

1,157

1,076

2,23

41,2

84

1,38

52,

66

91,5

341,6

273,

161

1,74

51,8

303,

575

10–1

49

1087

61,7

86

84

58

02

1,64

71,1

381,0

582,

197

1,26

41,3

65

2,6

301,5

131,6

05

3,11

8

15–1

979

779

91,5

96

89

28

531,7

45

828

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211,0

332,

154

1,24

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382,

582

20–2

44

93

46

79

60

770

764

1,535

86

48

171,6

81

799

739

1,538

1,087

98

92,

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25–2

938

94

01

790

46

64

379

03

740

731

1,470

830

779

1,610

762

69

91,4

61

30–3

435

237

172

337

038

675

64

46

421

86

771

671

21,4

288

04

760

1,56

3

35–3

935

44

67

821

339

359

69

935

737

473

24

324

09

84

16

99

697

1,39

6

40

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399

46

28

61

343

451

794

330

345

675

348

359

707

421

392

813

45–

49

322

397

719

384

44

68

3033

04

3676

631

733

16

48

334

344

678

50–5

432

834

46

7230

638

26

88

367

431

797

315

421

736

303

317

620

55–5

925

226

751

930

833

06

3828

936

76

5634

84

1576

329

94

06

705

60

–64

170

191

361

230

252

48

328

331

359

626

735

06

1632

239

571

7

65–

69

131

112

243

149

174

323

203

231

434

251

288

539

237

322

559

70–7

476

7715

310

79

620

312

215

127

316

820

237

020

925

24

61

75-7

957

5411

155

61

115

7877

154

90

122

212

125

164

289

80

+25

7910

44

278

120

508

213

26

79

616

48

313

521

9

All

ages

6,8

63

6,9

81

13,8

45

7,78

88,

011

15,7

99

8,9

40

9,26

218

,20

210

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510

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12,2

43

24,0

14

Ave

rage

ann

ual 2

011

to 2

031

gro

wth

rate

2.75

%

NSW Aboriginal Population and Households Projections, 2011–2031 • Page 46

FAC

S So

uth

East

ern

Syd

ney

Ind

igen

ous

Po

pul

atio

n

30 J

un

e 20

1130

Ju

ne

2016

30 J

un

e 20

2130

Ju

ne

2026

30 J

un

e 20

31

Age

gro

ups

Mal

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mal

esTo

tal

Mal

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mal

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Mal

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mal

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Mal

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mal

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Mal

esFe

mal

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tal

0–4

374

334

708

46

84

539

2251

34

971,0

1054

252

41,0

66

579

558

1,137

5–9

40

633

774

34

554

148

69

573

555

1,128

64

16

201,2

61

69

26

68

1,36

0

10–1

434

534

86

93

398

331

729

44

84

08

856

564

548

1,113

632

612

1,24

3

15–1

94

06

345

751

338

341

679

391

324

715

44

039

98

3955

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81,0

94

20–2

438

033

971

939

533

472

932

732

86

5537

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96

88

426

383

80

9

25–2

930

928

058

936

832

86

9738

232

270

531

331

56

2836

329

56

58

30–3

425

924

350

230

027

457

435

932

26

81

372

316

68

830

230

86

10

35–3

930

525

255

725

323

84

91

294

269

564

352

317

66

936

531

06

75

40

–44

294

262

556

299

246

545

248

233

48

129

026

355

334

731

06

57

45–

49

223

231

454

287

255

542

292

240

532

243

226

46

928

325

653

9

50–5

422

218

64

08

216

224

44

027

924

852

828

523

351

823

622

04

56

55–5

912

916

929

821

417

939

320

921

74

2627

124

151

227

722

650

3

60

–64

124

136

260

122

161

283

203

172

375

199

208

40

825

923

24

91

65–

69

85

98

183

114

126

241

113

150

264

190

161

351

187

196

382

70–7

44

06

610

675

88

163

102

114

216

102

136

237

171

146

316

75-7

939

3574

3356

89

62

7513

78

59

818

28

511

720

2

80

+17

40

5734

518

54

173

114

65

102

167

94

137

231

All

ages

3,9

573,

701

7,6

584

,36

94

,101

8,4

704

,837

4,5

48

9,38

65,

332

5,0

1710

,350

5,8

555,

510

11,3

64

Ave

rage

ann

ual 2

011

to 2

031

gro

wth

rate

1.97%

NSW Aboriginal Population and Households Projections, 2011–2031 Page 47

FAC

S So

uth

Wes

tern

Syd

ney

Ind

igen

ous

Po

pul

atio

n

30 J

un

e 20

1130

Ju

ne

2016

30 J

un

e 20

2130

Ju

ne

2026

30 J

un

e 20

31

Age

gro

ups

Mal

esFe

mal

esTo

tal

Mal

esFe

mal

esTo

tal

Mal

esFe

mal

esTo

tal

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mal

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tal

Mal

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mal

esTo

tal

0–4

1,06

19

572,

018

927

834

1,76

11,1

191,0

202,

138

1,30

71,2

01

2,50

91,4

241,3

132,

736

5–9

1,052

957

2,0

09

1,172

1,00

52,

177

1,09

29

332,

026

1,334

1,16

72,

502

1,573

1,397

2,97

0

10–1

49

89

94

51,9

341,0

389

49

1,987

1,159

99

82,

157

1,078

925

2,0

02

1,318

1,156

2,4

74

15–1

99

63

935

1,89

897

59

361,9

111,0

259

40

1,96

51,1

45

98

62,

131

1,06

39

101,9

73

20–2

46

00

616

1,216

94

49

221,8

66

955

921

1,876

1,00

29

211,9

231,1

199

62

2,0

81

25–2

94

2353

69

5958

26

06

1,18

89

229

08

1,829

930

90

31,8

3397

48

99

1,872

30–3

438

050

08

80

410

529

939

567

598

1,16

59

03

897

1,80

09

108

91

1,80

0

35–3

938

553

79

2237

14

93

86

44

02

523

924

557

590

1,14

78

90

88

61,7

76

40

–44

373

506

879

377

528

90

536

44

85

84

939

451

39

07

548

579

1,127

45–

49

347

44

579

236

34

96

859

368

518

88

635

54

758

3038

550

28

86

50–5

433

74

2075

733

64

3377

035

34

84

837

358

506

86

434

54

63

80

8

55–5

926

730

056

732

44

06

730

325

420

745

342

470

812

347

49

18

38

60

–64

216

220

436

253

286

539

309

388

697

310

40

371

332

74

5277

9

65–

69

103

121

224

199

205

40

423

526

750

228

836

46

5229

037

86

68

70–7

476

9717

39

110

920

017

818

536

321

024

24

5225

933

058

9

75-7

94

56

511

06

28

314

576

93

169

148

159

307

176

209

385

80

+29

558

44

58

212

76

711

217

98

914

022

815

120

735

9

All

ages

7,6

46

8,21

115

,858

8,4

718,

90

117

,372

9,51

49,

793

19,3

07

10,7

5110

,86

321

,614

12,0

98

12,0

2424

,122

Ave

rage

ann

ual 2

011

to 2

031

gro

wth

rate

2.10

%

NSW Aboriginal Population and Households Projections, 2011–2031 • Page 48

FAC

S So

uthe

rn N

SW In

dig

eno

us P

op

ulat

ion

30 J

un

e 20

1130

Ju

ne

2016

30 J

un

e 20

2130

Ju

ne

2026

30 J

un

e 20

31

Age

gro

ups

Mal

esFe

mal

esTo

tal

Mal

esFe

mal

esTo

tal

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esFe

mal

esTo

tal

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mal

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tal

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esFe

mal

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tal

0–4

419

377

796

473

509

98

256

76

00

1,16

76

516

82

1,333

748

774

1,522

5–9

46

538

78

5251

852

41,0

42

595

678

1,272

711

789

1,49

98

178

90

1,70

8

10–1

44

264

298

554

5637

88

3350

951

51,0

2458

56

67

1,253

700

777

1,478

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938

633

972

54

174

178

354

48

366

814

501

502

1,00

357

66

531,2

29

20–2

420

721

34

2037

332

16

95

40

439

88

03

433

345

779

48

54

799

64

25–2

922

721

04

3719

519

739

235

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46

63

389

379

768

416

325

740

30–3

417

818

135

921

820

24

2018

518

937

534

729

56

42

376

369

745

35–3

921

719

54

1217

217

534

721

119

64

07

179

183

362

340

287

627

40

–44

213

205

418

211

187

398

167

168

335

206

188

394

174

175

349

45–

49

196

198

394

205

197

40

220

418

038

416

116

032

119

918

037

9

50–5

414

818

933

718

719

037

719

619

038

619

517

336

815

415

430

7

55–5

911

414

425

813

918

132

017

718

336

018

618

336

918

616

735

2

60

–64

94

98

192

104

136

240

128

172

300

163

174

337

173

174

347

65–

69

5659

115

82

89

172

92

125

216

113

158

271

145

160

306

70–7

452

389

04

651

96

68

7714

576

109

185

95

138

233

75-7

917

304

737

306

733

40

7450

62

112

578

814

5

80

+1

1011

1125

3526

3359

314

576

43

67

110

All

ages

3,4

163,

302

6,7

183,

84

43,

811

7,6

554

,36

94

,414

8,78

34

,979

5,0

95

10,0

735,

68

35,

857

11,5

41

Ave

rage

ann

ual 2

011

to 2

031

gro

wth

rate

2.71

%

NSW Aboriginal Population and Households Projections, 2011–2031 Page 49

FAC

S Sy

dne

y In

dig

eno

us P

op

ulat

ion

30 J

un

e 20

1130

Ju

ne

2016

30 J

un

e 20

2130

Ju

ne

2026

30 J

un

e 20

31

Age

gro

ups

Mal

esFe

mal

esTo

tal

Mal

esFe

mal

esTo

tal

Mal

esFe

mal

esTo

tal

Mal

esFe

mal

esTo

tal

Mal

esFe

mal

esTo

tal

0–4

275

285

560

430

433

86

24

374

3987

64

284

298

564

564

559

10

5–9

249

229

478

356

381

737

532

548

1,08

156

157

41,1

3557

358

41,1

56

10–1

422

221

44

3624

222

34

65

349

374

724

524

541

1,06

555

256

61,1

18

15–1

926

627

754

321

620

64

2223

621

54

5134

236

570

751

653

01,0

46

20–2

428

529

558

025

626

552

120

519

339

922

420

04

2432

834

86

76

25–2

924

529

754

227

428

355

724

425

24

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318

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220

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439

4

30–3

418

521

339

823

729

052

726

527

754

223

524

64

81

183

172

355

35–3

918

921

44

03

180

208

388

232

285

517

260

272

531

229

240

46

9

40

–44

209

255

46

418

520

839

317

620

237

822

727

850

625

526

452

0

45–

49

168

239

40

720

324

84

5118

020

238

217

219

636

822

227

14

93

50–5

418

217

936

116

223

239

419

724

14

3817

519

637

016

619

035

6

55–5

915

115

230

317

517

334

815

722

438

119

123

44

2516

919

035

9

60

–64

779

016

714

314

528

816

716

533

215

021

536

518

322

54

07

65–

69

60

61

121

718

415

513

313

526

815

515

531

014

020

234

2

70–7

426

40

66

5354

107

63

7513

811

912

224

113

914

028

0

75-7

920

3858

2134

554

44

69

053

64

117

100

105

205

80

+15

2237

214

16

326

5076

44

66

110

61

90

151

All

ages

2,8

243,

100

5,9

243,

226

3,50

76

,733

3,6

45

3,9

267,

571

4,0

524

,332

8,38

44

,48

34

,755

9,23

8

Ave

rage

ann

ual 2

011

to 2

031

gro

wth

rate

2.22

%

NSW Aboriginal Population and Households Projections, 2011–2031 • Page 50

FAC

S W

este

rn N

SW In

dig

eno

us P

op

ulat

ion

30 J

un

e 20

1130

Ju

ne

2016

30 J

un

e 20

2130

Ju

ne

2026

30 J

un

e 20

31

Age

gro

ups

Mal

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tal

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tal

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0–4

1,977

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186

2,0

544

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02,

592

2,4

48

5,0

41

2,9

302,

775

5,70

53,

280

3,11

16

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1

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1,855

1,687

3,54

22,

358

2,22

74

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52,

66

92,

458

5,12

73,

172

2,9

45

6,11

83,

60

73,

363

6,9

70

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111,8

02

3,71

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191,6

62

3,4

81

2,32

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202

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631

2,4

305,

06

13,

131

2,9

126

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3

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91,7

201,5

83

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64

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419

2,28

82,

167

4,4

542,

593

2,38

84

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1

20–2

41,2

141,1

83

2,39

71,6

69

1,539

3,20

81,8

231,7

223,

546

1,729

1,575

3,30

52,

223

2,10

04

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25–2

99

00

90

11,8

01

1,16

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44

2,30

61,6

111,4

93

3,10

41,7

581,6

69

3,4

271,6

571,5

143,

172

30–3

474

98

131,5

62

86

38

80

1,74

31,1

211,1

212,

242

1,56

31,4

66

3,0

291,7

05

1,637

3,34

3

35–3

977

09

561,7

2672

579

61,5

208

388

62

1,70

01,0

93

1,10

02,

193

1,530

1,44

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971

40

–44

853

1,00

21,8

5574

89

331,6

80

705

774

1,479

817

838

1,656

1,06

91,0

712,

141

45–

49

784

780

1,56

48

2297

51,7

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NSW Aboriginal Population and Households Projections, 2011–2031 Page 51

FAC

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NSW Aboriginal Population and Households Projections, 2011–2031 • Page 52

2.3.

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3%

NSW Aboriginal Population and Households Projections, 2011–2031 Page 53

IRE

G S

out

h Ea

ster

n N

SW In

dig

eno

us P

op

ulat

ion

30 J

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NSW Aboriginal Population and Households Projections, 2011–2031 • Page 54

IRE

G N

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SW In

dig

eno

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2%

NSW Aboriginal Population and Households Projections, 2011–2031 Page 55

IRE

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Po

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30 J

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749

1,420

625

707

1,332

586

620

1,20

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872

51,4

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67

853

1,820

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49

637

69

21,3

286

49

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1,379

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76

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1,297

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69

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156

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138

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115

180

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237

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All

ages

12,3

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24,4

80

13,5

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27,0

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15,12

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rage

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gro

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2.21

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NSW Aboriginal Population and Households Projections, 2011–2031 • Page 56

IRE

G N

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2,31

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49

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1,354

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69

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rate

2.6

9%

NSW Aboriginal Population and Households Projections, 2011–2031 Page 57

IRE

G D

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us P

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ion

30 J

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NSW Aboriginal Population and Households Projections, 2011–2031 • Page 58

IRE

G N

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NSW Aboriginal Population and Households Projections, 2011–2031 Page 59

2.3.

5 R

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SW M

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NSW Aboriginal Population and Households Projections, 2011–2031 • Page 60

NSW

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6,19

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92,

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22,

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3,0

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2,8

96

5,8

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4,3

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4,0

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8,4

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4,4

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9,20

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4,13

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42,

08

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34

,173

2,32

12,

336

4,6

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2,8

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5,6

80

4,19

73,

99

38,

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4,5

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18,

934

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92,

120

2,4

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4,6

04

2,0

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2,0

304

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2,24

32,

272

4,5

142,

786

2,73

75,

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4,0

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3,9

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40

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2,22

72,

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4,7

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2,4

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4,4

551,9

44

1,952

3,8

96

2,18

32,

186

4,3

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2,72

02,

64

25,

362

45–

49

1,94

52,

192

4,13

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138

2,4

83

4,6

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4,2

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1,86

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741

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100

4,2

00

50–5

41,8

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1,84

92,

109

3,9

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04

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397

4,4

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1,78

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592,

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1,577

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3,33

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1,931

3,54

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2,20

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99

1

65–

69

671

69

01,3

61

916

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1,84

61,1

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1,24

62,

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1,397

1,612

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1,432

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547

592

1,139

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51,5

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286

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349

551

90

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84

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1,225

All

ages

40

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44

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80

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54

5,8

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46

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92,

177

52,7

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53,5

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rage

ann

ual 2

011

to 2

031

gro

wth

rate

2.79

%

NSW Aboriginal Population and Households Projections, 2011–2031 Page 61

NSW

Out

er R

egio

nal I

ndig

eno

us P

op

ulat

ion

30 J

un

e 20

1130

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ne

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Age

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3,8

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1,837

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3,6

112,

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2,14

04

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8

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99

83

976

1,959

1,132

1,08

62,

218

1,759

1,557

3,31

61,9

63

1,822

3,78

51,7

68

1,717

3,4

86

30–3

473

98

80

1,619

94

89

571,9

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66

2,16

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569

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1,836

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41,5

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1,76

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05

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50–5

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58

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01

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103

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322

173

264

438

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All

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117

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35,8

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01

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Ave

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031

gro

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rate

2.4

8%

NSW Aboriginal Population and Households Projections, 2011–2031 • Page 62

NSW

Rem

ote

Ind

igen

ous

Po

pul

atio

n

30 J

un

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1130

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31

Age

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gro

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rate

1.95%

NSW Aboriginal Population and Households Projections, 2011–2031 Page 63

NSW

Ver

y R

emo

te In

dig

eno

us P

op

ulat

ion

30 J

un

e 20

1130

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NSW Aboriginal Population and Households Projections, 2011–2031 • Page 64

2.4

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(co

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NSW Aboriginal Population and Households Projections, 2011–2031 Page 65

Age

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Sing

le p

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91,1

281,7

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301,5

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Tota

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s4

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No

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Co

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Co

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1,89

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Sing

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1,716

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Sing

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191,6

88

2,53

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Oth

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Co

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Co

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84

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Sing

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768

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Oth

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Co

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99

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Co

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2,22

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23,

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Sing

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2,0

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3,31

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Sou

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Co

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98

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Co

uple

with

dep

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1,19

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1,979

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Sing

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1,08

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366

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(co

ntin

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nex

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e)

2.4

.1 In

dig

eno

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ous

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lds

typ

es (c

on’

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NSW Aboriginal Population and Households Projections, 2011–2031 • Page 66

Age

ncy

Reg

ion

nam

esH

ou

seh

old

typ

e20

1120

1620

2120

2620

3120

1620

2120

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31

AHO Regions

Du

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o

Co

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98

1,64

52,

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Co

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1,24

91,6

302,

106

2,26

62,

425

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Sing

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1,133

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Sing

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301,5

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Tota

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s4

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9,59

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No

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1,89

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1,716

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92,

86

93,

06

53,

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Sing

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191,6

88

2,53

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397

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No

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Co

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95

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99

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Co

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84

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Sing

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768

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Co

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99

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2,22

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513

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141,8

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Tota

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1917

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Co

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Age

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Reg

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typ

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1120

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Syd

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506

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5,75

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8,59

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5,21

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Remoteness Areas

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96

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Co

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7,30

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Sing

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6,6

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Sing

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6,4

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Oth

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Tota

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s28

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239

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Maj

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7,77

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Sing

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ren

7,0

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Sing

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Tota

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s30

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04

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54,5

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2,9

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Sing

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t with

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2,6

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4,16

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Sing

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192,

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Oth

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Tota

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Rem

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Co

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84

96

69

58

2497

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Co

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612

737

89

09

09

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Sing

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555

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Sing

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251

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Oth

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(co

ntin

ued

nex

t pag

e)

2.4

.1 In

dig

eno

us h

ous

eho

lds

typ

es (c

on’

t)

NSW Aboriginal Population and Households Projections, 2011–2031 Page 67

2.4

.1 In

dig

eno

us h

ous

eho

lds

typ

es (c

on’

t)

Age

ncy

Reg

ion

nam

esH

ou

seh

old

typ

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1120

1620

2120

2620

3120

1620

2120

2620

31

Remoteness Areas

Ver

y R

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e

Co

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y18

425

735

94

244

99

6.7

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Co

uple

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316

382

46

04

68

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3.8

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Sing

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dep

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ren

286

350

426

436

44

44

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437

54

5053

76

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Oth

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135

34

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66

246

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Tota

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old

s1,2

341,6

05

2,0

98

2,32

42,

576

5.3%

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Family and Community Services (FACS)

Cen

tral

Co

ast

Co

uple

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02

779

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31,3

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1,524

5.2%

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Co

uple

with

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1,19

91,3

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1,76

21,8

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98

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Sing

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1,839

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Tota

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s4

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85,

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7,25

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Far

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Co

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Co

uple

with

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239

333

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Sing

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266

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Oth

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Tota

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Hu

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Co

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Co

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4,3

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Sing

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3,78

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Oth

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Tota

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31,5

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Co

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Co

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1,339

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Sing

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1,18

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1,778

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(co

ntin

ued

nex

t pag

e)

NSW Aboriginal Population and Households Projections, 2011–2031 • Page 68

(co

ntin

ued

nex

t pag

e)

Age

ncy

Reg

ion

nam

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ou

seh

old

typ

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31

Remoteness Areas

Ver

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Co

uple

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425

735

94

244

99

6.7

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Co

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with

dep

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316

382

46

04

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Sing

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286

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44

44

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Sing

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54

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Oth

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Tota

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2,0

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2,32

42,

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5.3%

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Family and Community Services (FACS)

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tral

Co

ast

Co

uple

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02

779

110

31,3

03

1,524

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Co

uple

with

dep

end

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1,19

91,3

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1,76

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Sing

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98

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88

1,44

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Sing

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1,421

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Oth

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1,839

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Tota

l Ho

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old

s4

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85,

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7,25

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9,4

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4.3

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Far

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t

Co

uple

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Co

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with

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239

333

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Sing

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266

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239

36

238

101,0

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Oth

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84

62

503

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Tota

l ho

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s1,0

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1,78

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2,77

33,

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9.9

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Hu

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Co

uple

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3,8

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5,78

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Co

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ren

4,3

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7,20

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Sing

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aren

t with

dep

end

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ren

3,78

44

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46

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6,6

89

7,0

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5.3%

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Sing

le p

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40

73,

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5,4

786

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48,

380

8.5%

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55,

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7,17

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Tota

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31,5

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14

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1,156

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Sing

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1,18

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1,778

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51,9

85

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Age

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Reg

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nam

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ou

seh

old

typ

e20

1120

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31

Family and Community Services (FACS)

Mid

No

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ast

Co

uple

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974

1,337

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Sing

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Co

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96

98

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Co

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with

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end

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1,18

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291,7

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Sing

le p

aren

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dep

end

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ren

1,118

1,44

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1,976

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Sing

le p

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91,2

68

2,0

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68

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91,0

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44

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Tota

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s4

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78,

312

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Blu

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Co

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1,26

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1,20

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Sing

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831

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Sing

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48

594

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929

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6%

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Oth

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1,38

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Tota

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old

s4

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8,9

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No

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Co

uple

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93

1,06

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06

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Co

uple

with

dep

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ent c

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ren

1,19

91,5

161,8

741,9

371,9

86

4.7

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Sing

le p

aren

t with

dep

end

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ren

1,235

1,677

2,22

72,

471

2,72

26

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4.6

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Sing

le p

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98

1,018

1,451

1,729

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7.5%

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92

1,44

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2,4

372,

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Tota

l ho

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old

s4

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6,7

219,

210

10,5

94

12,15

16

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No

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ern

Syd

ney

Co

uple

onl

y29

131

44

134

524

92

1.5%

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Co

uple

with

dep

end

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ren

362

424

60

571

88

48

3.2%

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Sing

le p

aren

t with

dep

end

ent c

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ren

154

169

226

252

279

1.9%

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Sing

le p

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623

731

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238

91.9

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Oth

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538

84

124

330

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Tota

l ho

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old

s1,3

151,4

48

1,94

92,

187

2,4

41

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3.9

%3.

4%

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2.4

.1 In

dig

eno

us h

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typ

es (c

on’

t)

NSW Aboriginal Population and Households Projections, 2011–2031 Page 69

2.4

.1 In

dig

eno

us h

ous

eho

lds

typ

es (c

on’

t)

Age

ncy

Reg

ion

nam

esH

ou

seh

old

typ

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1120

1620

2120

2620

3120

1620

2120

2620

31

Family and Community Services (FACS)

Sou

th E

aste

rn

Syd

ney

Co

uple

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y51

36

03

812

914

1,023

3.2%

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9%

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Co

uple

with

dep

end

ent c

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ren

672

789

1,06

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91

1,331

3.2%

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Sing

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511

536

64

36

45

64

41.0

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Sing

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3873

49

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2.8

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Oth

er h

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02

94

11,2

65

1,421

1,587

3.2%

4.6

%3.

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%

Tota

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old

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136

3,6

03

4,7

49

5,23

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Sou

th W

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Syd

ney

Co

uple

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y79

51,0

91

1,553

1,86

22,

216

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uple

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dep

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1,58

41,8

762,

302

2,38

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44

33.

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Sing

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t with

dep

end

ent c

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ren

1,44

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122,

105

2,18

12,

242

3.4

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2%

Sing

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09

66

1,38

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1,98

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Tota

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7,39

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769

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54

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Sou

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Co

uple

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44

701

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Co

uple

with

dep

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ren

66

78

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1,170

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175.

6%

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Sing

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aren

t with

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ren

538

66

68

298

60

88

24

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Sing

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750

670

18

109

266

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Oth

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01

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631

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16

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Tota

l ho

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3,25

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5,8

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Syd

ney

Co

uple

onl

y39

24

44

60

16

7074

02.

5%4

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3.6

%3.

2%

Co

uple

with

dep

end

ent c

hild

ren

308

315

385

387

385

0.4

%2.

2%1.5

%1.1

%

Sing

le p

aren

t with

dep

end

ent c

hild

ren

49

550

16

05

60

259

30

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2.0

%1.3

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Sing

le p

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738

251,2

06

1,453

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4.1%

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Oth

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91,0

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Tota

l Ho

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old

s2,

569

2,8

65

3,8

314

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24

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2.2%

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0%

Wes

tern

NSW

Co

uple

onl

y1,3

84

2,35

33,

538

4,4

335,

49

510

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9.4

%7.

8%

6.9

%

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NSW Aboriginal Population and Households Projections, 2011–2031 • Page 70

Age

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Reg

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old

typ

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2620

3120

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with

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672

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NSW Aboriginal Population and Households Projections, 2011–2031 Page 71

2.4.2 Indigenous households by tenure status

Regions Tenure Type 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031

AHO Northern Region

Fully owned 3,994 5,106 6,444 6,756 6,991

Being purchased 7,765 11,905 18,086 22,837 28,467

Rented: 16,542 21,684 28,353 31,070 33,879

Private landlord and real estate agent 8,944 12,340 16,908 19,273 21,721

State or territory housing authority 5,687 7,148 8,904 9,234 9,470

Co-operative/community/church 1,160 1,273 1,419 1,406 1,487

Other landlord types and type ns 752 922 1122 1157 1202

Other tenure types 537 649 769 764 754

Tenure type not stated 1,078 1,595 2,353 2,925 3,633

Total occupied private dwellings 29,917 40,939 56,005 64,352 73,725

Total persons in occupied private dwelling 95,321 110,813 190,740 220,656 252,798

AHO Sydney/South Eastern Region

Fully owned 3,621 4,502 5,516 5,618 5,647

Being purchased 7,039 10,497 15,482 18,993 22,996

Rented: 14,995 19,117 24,272 25,840 27,367

Private landlord and real estate agent 8,107 10,880 14,474 16,029 17,545

State or territory housing authority 5,155 6,302 7,623 7,679 7,650

Co-operative/community/church 1,052 1,122 1,215 1,169 1,201

Other landlord types and type ns 682 813 961 962 971

Other tenure types 486 572 658 634 609

Tenure type not stated 977 1,406 2,014 2,433 2,935

Total occupied private dwellings 27,120 36,094 47,942 53,519 59,554

Total persons in occupied private dwelling 86,410 97,699 163,275 183,518 204,207

AHO Western Region

Fully owned 2,253 2,855 3,580 3,731 3,849

Being purchased 4,381 6,658 10,045 12,611 15,672

Rented: 9,330 12,126 15,747 17,158 18,652

Private landlord and real estate agent 5,045 6,901 9,391 10,643 11,958

State or territory housing authority 3,207 3,998 4,945 5,100 5,214

Co-operative/community/church 654 712 788 776 819

Other landlord types and type ns 424 516 623 639 661

Other tenure types 303 363 426 422 415

Tenure type not stated 609 892 1,307 1,616 2,001

Total occupied private dwellings 16,875 22,895 31,106 35,537 40,589

Total persons in occupied private dwelling 53,772 61,971 105,937 121,853 139,175

Indigenous Region Dubbo

Fully owned 652 855 1104 1182 1251

Being purchased 1,267 1,993 3,099 3,995 5,096

Rented 2,699 3,629 4,859 5,436 6,065

Private landlord and real estate agent 1,459 2,066 2,897 3,372 3,888

State or territory housing authority 928 1,197 1,526 1,616 1,695

Co-operative/community/church 190 213 244 246 266

Other landlord types and type ns 123 154 192 203 215

Other tenure types 87 109 133 134 135

Tenure type not stated 175 267 404 511 651

Total occupied private dwellings 4,879 6,852 9,599 11,257 13,198

Total persons in occupied private dwelling 15,551 18,547 32,682 38,601 45,256

(continued next page)

NSW Aboriginal Population and Households Projections, 2011–2031 • Page 72

Regions Tenure Type 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031

Indigenous Region North Eastern NSW

Fully owned 988 1,279 1,628 1,717 1,793

Being purchased 1,919 2,983 4,568 5,804 7,301

Rented: 4,089 5,433 7,162 7,896 8,689

Private landlord and real estate agent 2,211 3,092 4,271 4,898 5,571

State or territory housing authority 1,405 1,791 2,249 2,347 2,429

Co-operative/community/church 287 320 359 357 382

Other landlord types and type ns 186 231 283 294 308

Other tenure types 133 162 194 195 193

Tenure type not stated 267 399 595 743 932

Total occupied private dwellings 7,395 10,256 14,147 16,354 18,908

Total persons in occupied private dwelling 23,565 27,766 48,176 56,077 64,838

Indigenous Region North Western

Fully owned 442 545 665 674 677

Being purchased 859 1,271 1,866 2,281 2,757

Rented: 1,830 2,315 2,926 3,103 3,280

Private landlord and real estate agent 990 1,317 1,745 1,925 2,103

State or territory housing authority 629 763 919 923 917

Co-operative/community/church 128 136 147 140 144

Other landlord types and type ns 83 99 116 116 116

Other tenure types 59 69 80 76 72

Tenure type not stated 119 170 243 292 352

Total occupied private dwellings 3,310 4,371 5,778 6,427 7,138

Total persons in occupied private dwelling 10,544 11,831 19,677 22,040 24,481

Indigenous Region NSW Central and North Coast

Fully owned 3,007 3,840 4,838 5,061 5,218

Being purchased 5,846 8,953 13,581 17,106 21,247

Rented: 12,453 16,306 21,291 23,272 25,286

Private landlord and real estate agent 6,733 9,280 12,696 14,436 16,211

State or territory housing authority 4,280 5,376 6,687 6,916 7,068

Co-operative/community/church 873 957 1066 1053 1110

Other landlord types and type ns 566 693 843 867 897

Other tenure types 406 488 577 571 563

Tenure type not stated 812 1,200 1,766 2,192 2,713

Total occupied private dwellings 22,523 30,788 42,054 48,202 55,027

Total persons in occupied private dwelling 71,758 83,330 143,231 165,278 188,677

Indigenous Region Riverina-Orange

Fully owned 1,159 1,437 1,763 1,805 1,828

Being purchased 2,254 3,348 4,947 6,102 7,445

Rented: 4802 6098 7755 8302 8860

Private landlord and real estate agent 2,596 3,471 4,624 5,150 5,680

State or territory housing authority 1,651 2,010 2,435 2,467 2,477

Co-operative/community/church 336 358 388 375 389

Other landlord types and type ns 218 259 307 309 314

Other tenure types 156 183 210 204 197

Tenure type not stated 313 449 643 782 950

Total occupied private dwellings 8,683 11,514 15,317 17,195 19,280

Total persons in occupied private dwelling 27,669 31,162 52,171 58,963 66,110

(continued next page)

2.4.2 Indigenous households by tenure status (con’t)

NSW Aboriginal Population and Households Projections, 2011–2031 Page 73

Regions Tenure Type 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031

Indigenous Region South Eastern NSW

Fully owned 623 810 1,038 1,102 1,161

Being purchased 1,211 1,890 2,912 3,726 4,725

Rented: 2,578 3,442 4,565 5,070 5,623

Private landlord and real estate agent 1,394 1,959 2,722 3,145 3,605

State or territory housing authority 887 1,135 1,433 1,507 1,572

Co-operative/community/church 181 203 229 230 247

Other landlord types and type ns 117 146 181 189 199

Other tenure types 84 103 124 124 125

Tenure type not stated 168 253 379 477 604

Total occupied private dwellings 4,664 6,499 9,017 10,499 12,237

Total persons in occupied private dwelling 14,861 17,591 30,707 36,000 41,956

Indigenous Region Sydney Wollongong

Fully owned 2,999 3,698 4,503 4,564 4,559

Being purchased 5,829 8,623 12,641 15,428 18,565

Rented: 12,417 15,704 19,816 20,990 22,095

Private landlord and real estate agent 6,713 8,937 11,817 13,021 14,165

State or territory housing authority 4,268 5,177 6,223 6,238 6,176

Co-operative/community/church 870 921 991 950 970

Other landlord types and type ns 565 668 784 782 784

Other tenure types 403 470 537 515 492

Tenure type not stated 810 1,155 1,644 1,976 2,369

Total occupied private dwellings 22,457 29,648 39,141 43,474 48,080

Total persons in occupied private dwelling 71,555 80,256 133,308 149,069 164,863

NSW Major Cities

Fully owned 4,056 5,086 6,277 6,430 6,492

Being purchased 7,886 11,860 17,619 21,734 26,435

Rented: 16,798 21,599 27,621 29,570 31,462

Private landlord and real estate agent 9,082 12,292 16,471 18,342 20,171

State or territory housing authority 5,774 7,120 8,674 8,788 8,794

Co-operative/community/church 1,178 1,268 1,383 1,338 1,381

Other landlord types and type ns 764 919 1,093 1,101 1,116

Other tenure types 545 645 749 726 700

Tenure type not stated 1,095 1,588 2,292 2,784 3,375

Total occupied private dwellings 30,381 40,778 54,557 61,244 68,464

Total persons in occupied private dwelling 96,801 110,386 185,810 210,003 234,757

NSW Inner Regional Areas

Fully owned 3,811 4,891 6,190 6,501 6,748

Being purchased 7,409 11,404 17,373 21,975 27,477

Rented 15,783 20,770 27,235 29,897 32,700

Private landlord and real estate agent 8,534 11,820 16,241 18,545 20,964

State or territory housing authority 5,425 6,847 8,553 8,885 9,140

Co-operative/community/church 1,107 1,220 1,364 1,353 1,435

Other landlord types and type ns 717 883 1,078 1,113 1,160

Other tenure types 512 621 738 736 728

Tenure type not stated 1,029 1,528 2,260 2,815 3,506

Total occupied private dwellings 28,543 39,214 53,796 61,923 71,159

Total persons in occupied private dwelling 90,945 106,144 183,216 212,326 243,999

2.4.2 Indigenous households by tenure status (con’t)

(continued next page)

NSW Aboriginal Population and Households Projections, 2011–2031 • Page 74

Regions Tenure Type 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031

NSW Outer Regional Areas

Fully owned 1,518 1,900 2,364 2,457 2,525

Being purchased 2,950 4,429 6,635 8,306 10,283

Rented: 6,285 8,067 10,401 11,301 12,238

Private landlord and real estate agent 3,397 4,591 6,202 7,010 7,846

State or territory housing authority 2,161 2,659 3,266 3,358 3,421

Co-operative/community/church 441 474 520 512 537

Other landlord types and type ns 286 343 412 421 434

Other tenure types 204 241 283 277 272

Tenure type not stated 409 593 863 1,064 1,313

Total occupied private dwellings 11,366 15,229 20,545 23,404 26,632

Total persons in occupied private dwelling 36,214 41,228 69,969 80,254 91,318

NSW Remote Areas

Fully owned 319 387 467 474 478

Being purchased 620 901 1,310 1,602 1,945

Rented: 1,321 1,641 2,054 2,179 2,314

Private landlord and real estate agent 715 934 1,225 1,352 1,484

State or territory housing authority 454 541 645 648 647

Co-operative/community/church 92 97 103 98 101

Other landlord types and type ns 60 70 81 81 82

Other tenure types 43 50 55 54 51

Tenure type not stated 86 121 171 205 248

Total occupied private dwellings 2,389 3,100 4,056 4,513 5,036

Total persons in occupied private dwelling 7,614 8,384 13,813 15,476 17,271

NSW Very Remote Areas

Fully owned 164 201 241 244 244

Being purchased 320 467 678 825 995

Rented: 681 850 1,062 1,122 1,185

Private landlord and real estate agent 368 484 634 696 759

State or territory housing authority 234 280 334 334 331

Co-operative/community/church 48 50 53 51 52

Other landlord types and type ns 31 36 42 42 42

Other tenure types 23 26 29 27 26

Tenure type not stated 45 63 89 105 128

Total occupied private dwellings 1,233 1,606 2,099 2,323 2,578

Total persons in occupied private dwelling 3,929 4,342 7,145 7,970 8,834

NSW Total

Fully owned 9,868 12,464 15,539 16,105 16,487

Being purchased 19,185 29,060 43,614 54,442 67,136

Rented total: 40,868 52,927 68,373 74,068 79,899

Private landlord and real estate agent 22,096 30,121 40,773 45,946 51,224

State or territory housing authority 14,049 17,448 21,472 22,013 22,333

Co-operative/community/church 2,865 3,107 3,422 3,351 3,507

Other landlord types and type ns 1,858 2,251 2,706 2,759 2,834

Other tenure type 1,327 1,584 1,854 1,819 1,777

Tenure type not stated 2,664 3,893 5,674 6,974 8,569

Total households 73,912 99,928 135,053 153,408 173,868

Total persons in occupied private dwelling 235,503 270,484 459,953 526,029 596,179

2.4.2 Indigenous households by tenure status (con’t)

NSW Aboriginal Population and Households Projections, 2011–2031 Page 75

Num

ber

of H

ouse

hold

s by

Ten

ure

Stat

us

Fam

ily a

nd

Com

mun

ity S

ervi

ces

(FA

CS)

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lly

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unity

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co-

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ativ

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Land

lord

not

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ated

Rent

ed: P

rivat

e La

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rd a

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al

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te a

gent

Rent

ed: S

tate

ho

usin

g au

thor

ity

Rent

ed: O

ther

la

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rd (i

ncl.

resi

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ial p

ark)

Oth

er

tenu

re

type

Tenu

re ty

pe

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tate

dTo

tal

hous

ehol

ds

Central Coast

200

157

636

04

815

80

525

524

574

32,

183

200

68

40

40

74

715

1,136

357

45

41

84

2,97

2

2011

1,337

564

5926

1,625

417

7570

125

4,2

98

2016

1,78

86

3058

322,

00

64

47

111

7517

45,

321

2021

2,6

1677

06

24

42,

710

523

179

8726

57,

256

2026

3,18

878

456

503,

04

851

124

08

533

68,

297

2031

3,8

44

789

49

553,

393

49

332

08

24

219,

44

7

Far West

200

112

016

317

912

121

106

5830

368

25

200

615

213

116

86

138

124

66

256

787

7

2011

217

176

117

024

816

379

276

21,0

89

2016

390

262

114

04

9727

212

335

93

1,78

6

2021

565

313

89

08

01

365

154

3611

32,

436

2026

66

530

457

01,0

49

399

157

3111

12,

773

2031

767

290

360

1,34

84

2715

625

107

3,15

6

Hunter New England

200

11,9

251,5

89

709

104

2,9

171,9

5123

127

221

59,

913

200

62,

99

21,7

45

679

120

3,56

12,

369

269

206

48

112

,422

2011

4,4

81

2,26

06

95

95

4,9

83

2,8

44

310

286

60

016

,554

2016

7,0

972,

913

716

877,

023

3,6

07

376

333

929

23,0

82

2021

10,8

973,

64

171

677

9,59

64

,436

44

337

61,3

95

31,5

77

2026

13,8

85

3,77

759

457

10,8

80

4,5

264

3335

21,7

3736

,24

1

2031

17,4

733,

86

84

86

41

12,18

44

,56

14

1832

52,

138

41,4

95

Illawarra Shoalhaven

200

16

1356

017

427

80

976

751

95

62

3,15

8

200

687

452

613

518

1,022

84

64

44

012

63,

631

2011

1,278

69

213

626

1,413

1,08

36

974

167

4,9

38

2016

1,79

178

811

727

1,84

41,2

83

86

7424

16

,252

2021

2,6

49

94

710

730

2,53

91,6

05

112

7936

68,

434

2026

3,27

09

49

81

282,

917

1,675

123

704

65

9,57

9

2031

3,9

98

94

36

126

3,32

01,7

3113

36

158

410

,857

2.4

.3 In

dig

eno

us h

ous

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lds

by te

nure

sta

tus

by F

AC

S re

gio

ns

(co

ntin

ued

nex

t pag

e)

NSW Aboriginal Population and Households Projections, 2011–2031 • Page 76

Num

ber

of H

ouse

hold

s by

Ten

ure

Stat

us

Fam

ily a

nd

Com

mun

ity S

ervi

ces

(FA

CS)

Year

Bei

ng

purc

hase

dFu

lly

owne

d

Rent

ed: C

omm

unity

or

co-

oper

ativ

e ho

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Rent

ed:

Land

lord

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st

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Rent

ed: P

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gent

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ity

Rent

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ther

la

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ark)

Oth

er

tenu

re

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Tenu

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pe

not s

tate

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tal

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ds

Mid North Coast

200

135

636

322

724

815

46

79

14

655

2,4

44

200

66

3235

322

634

1,014

546

103

48

145

3,10

1

2011

875

507

208

281,4

196

89

102

5911

03,

997

2016

1,479

725

218

312,

177

96

611

978

137

5,9

30

2021

2,27

79

45

208

313,

04

31,2

3412

79

415

68,

114

2026

2,9

171,0

2416

626

3,53

81,3

1111

29

414

89,

336

2031

3,6

93

1,097

130

224

,06

61,3

779

89

313

810

,714

Murrumbidgee

200

156

24

5416

831

755

66

48

49

54

52,

858

200

68

394

7315

231

1,011

856

68

7614

13,

64

7

2011

1,124

564

123

45

1,414

872

108

100

203

4,5

53

2016

1,636

673

104

60

2,0

47

1,00

714

211

536

36

,147

2021

2,34

479

08

68

02,

916

1,14

518

312

96

398,

312

2026

2,78

476

959

88

3,4

46

1,079

196

121

933

9,4

74

2031

3,26

173

84

09

54

,015

1,00

320

711

21,3

43

10,8

14

Nepean Blue Mountains

200

18

274

5052

1870

539

239

42

372,

562

200

697

34

2637

129

63

474

43

3110

53,

06

4

2011

1,49

854

379

241,1

596

2531

5310

84

,120

2016

2,0

81

615

113

321,4

3679

224

66

145

5,30

5

2021

2,9

89

720

166

44

1,84

01,0

3720

86

201

7,10

4

2026

3,58

870

420

551

1,970

1,135

139

323

37,

99

2

2031

4,2

60

68

225

058

2,0

871,2

289

100

267

8,9

40

Northern NSW

200

152

04

7938

321

1,10

04

04

3376

723,

08

8

200

679

053

628

534

1,259

543

140

5016

03,

797

2011

1,179

679

284

331,6

48

592

122

7420

64

,817

2016

1,910

90

026

74

12,

251

754

174

88

335

6,7

21

2021

2,9

93

1,154

242

502,

974

929

241

101

526

9,21

0

2026

3,8

82

1,225

182

49

3,25

29

47

276

96

68

410

,59

4

2031

4,9

581,2

80

135

49

3,50

19

5131

09

087

712

,151

(co

ntin

ued

nex

t pag

e)

2.4

.3 In

dig

eno

us h

ous

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lds

by te

nure

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tus

by F

AC

S re

gio

ns (c

on’

t)

NSW Aboriginal Population and Households Projections, 2011–2031 Page 77

Num

ber

of H

ouse

hold

s by

Ten

ure

Stat

us

Fam

ily a

nd

Com

mun

ity S

ervi

ces

(FA

CS)

Year

Bei

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lly

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Northern Sydney

200

123

122

59

336

571

2727

289

86

200

627

519

73

638

297

2212

541,0

48

2011

387

256

213

48

476

2531

321,3

15

2016

46

826

539

252

56

423

3824

1,44

8

2021

679

330

872

68

36

525

5622

1,94

9

2026

80

533

515

81

727

5423

68

162,

187

2031

927

330

279

175

14

320

7912

2,4

41

South Eastern Sydney

200

133

04

2424

158

89

511

45

7010

52,

413

200

64

99

364

47

328

67

520

2533

157

2,54

4

2011

714

506

88

121,0

41

60

437

508

43,

136

2016

976

572

147

71,1

176

43

364

657

3,6

03

2021

1,497

726

276

41,3

45

768

40

48

44

4,7

49

2026

1,878

754

424

21,3

2475

137

41

285,

237

2031

2,29

176

16

321

1,26

871

432

3417

5,75

0

South Western Sydney

200

19

82

551

85

279

02

1,314

81

7810

14

,121

200

61,0

85

522

5856

1,130

1,28

84

88

020

34

,470

2011

1,69

071

213

427

1,40

21,5

186

671

202

5,8

22

2016

2,39

68

80

205

201,7

85

1,718

68

67

252

7,39

0

2021

3,50

11,1

2132

415

2,34

32,

00

571

64

325

9,76

9

2026

4,2

92

1,19

84

2910

2,57

91,9

62

63

5235

110

,936

2031

5,19

91,2

65

561

62,

80

51,8

9755

42

375

12,2

05

Southern NSW

200

125

923

117

69

433

265

514

34

91,5

16

200

64

3425

516

29

475

426

2119

48

1,84

9

2011

656

322

146

96

384

876

520

742,

417

2016

1,039

40

013

29

825

639

96

1410

13,

256

2021

1,638

49

511

99

1,06

28

3414

110

136

4,4

44

2026

2,13

550

68

88

1,130

90

117

26

153

5,0

97

2031

2,74

051

06

56

1,18

49

5820

63

168

5,8

39

2.4

.3 In

dig

eno

us h

ous

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lds

by te

nure

sta

tus

by F

AC

S re

gio

ns (c

on’

t)

(co

ntin

ued

nex

t pag

e)

NSW Aboriginal Population and Households Projections, 2011–2031 • Page 78

Num

ber

of H

ouse

hold

s by

Ten

ure

Stat

us

Fam

ily a

nd

Com

mun

ity S

ervi

ces

(FA

CS)

Year

Bei

ng

purc

hase

dFu

lly

owne

d

Rent

ed: C

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unity

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ativ

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lord

not

st

ated

Rent

ed: P

rivat

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ity

Rent

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la

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Oth

er

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ds

Sydney

200

121

320

611

336

704

554

5135

721,9

84

200

627

217

113

130

767

639

2533

122

2,19

0

2011

40

621

713

517

839

780

3629

110

2,56

9

2016

544

227

138

1087

88

95

3325

115

2,8

65

2021

86

528

216

87

1,08

91,2

1735

2514

43,

831

2026

1,125

287

168

41,1

05

1,355

3120

146

4,2

42

2031

1,44

128

816

42

1,10

51,4

85

2716

147

4,6

74

Western NSW

200

11,0

99

1,016

652

66

1,612

1,39

626

525

318

16

,54

0

200

61,6

741,0

62

599

84

1,79

41,5

5721

720

033

47,

521

2011

2,27

51,3

1456

48

32,

555

1,726

249

298

426

9,4

90

2016

3,87

61,8

736

2910

84

,08

52,

334

306

434

732

14,3

78

2021

5,8

162,

353

618

125

5,75

42,

781

331

556

1,10

919

,44

3

2026

7,25

72,

457

504

119

6,7

392,

755

298

592

1,39

622

,119

2031

8,9

48

2,53

64

07

113

7,79

92,

697

266

624

1,737

25,12

5

Western Sydney

200

16

734

7851

42

879

1,28

824

113

105

3,6

53

200

679

24

2058

281,1

45

1,39

34

956

176

4,11

7

2011

1,06

855

676

101,2

281,5

734

68

515

54

,797

2016

1,58

873

911

04

1,624

2,0

266

397

193

6,4

44

2021

2,28

79

5315

42

2,0

80

2,52

88

310

723

38,

425

2026

2,77

01,0

3218

11

2,24

02,

652

93

99

236

9,30

4

2031

3,33

61,1

1221

20

2,4

00

2,76

710

39

123

910

,26

0

Total NSW

200

19,

286

7,54

93,

050

450

13,8

1110

,40

511

551,3

321,2

06

48,

244

200

613

,123

7,58

82,

787

515

16,6

64

12,0

3511

85

950

2,4

03

57,2

50

2011

19,18

59,

86

82,

86

54

3822

,09

614

,04

914

201,3

272,

66

473

,912

2016

29,0

60

12,4

64

3,10

74

7130

,121

17,4

48

178

01,5

84

3,8

93

99,

928

2021

43,

614

15,5

393,

422

519

40

,773

21,4

7221

86

1,854

5,6

7413

,50

53

2026

54,4

42

16,10

53,

351

49

24

5,9

46

22,0

1322

66

1,819

6,9

7415

,34

08

2031

67,

136

16,4

873,

507

474

51,2

2422

,333

2359

1,777

8,56

917

,38

68

(co

ntin

ued

nex

t pag

e)

2.4

.3 In

dig

eno

us h

ous

eho

lds

by te

nure

sta

tus

by F

AC

S re

gio

ns (c

on’

t)

NSW Aboriginal Population and Households Projections, 2011–2031 Page 79

2.4.4 Indigenous households by age group of household heads by FACS regions

Number of Households by Age of Household Heads

Family and Community Services (FACS) Year Under 20

20-24 25-44 45-54 55-64 65-79 80 and over

Total households

Central C

oast

2001 57 162 1,255 378 181 126 24 2,183

2006 47 226 1,550 597 322 197 33 2,972

2011 53 309 2,007 1,000 539 327 63 4,298

2016 44 365 2,188 1,400 779 454 92 5,321

2021 39 467 2,583 2,121 1,219 682 145 7,256

2026 29 493 2,515 2,652 1,574 845 188 8,297

2031 21 510 2,402 3,253 1,994 1,028 240 9,447

Far West

2001 9 82 455 152 73 48 6 825

2006 26 79 434 151 105 71 11 877

2011 21 100 491 237 131 99 10 1,089

2016 33 159 719 437 233 190 15 1,786

2021 42 207 865 661 341 300 19 2,436

2026 45 222 857 826 411 391 20 2,773

2031 47 236 840 1,019 490 502 21 3,156

Hu

nter New

En

gland

2001 242 912 5,432 1,820 972 469 66 9,913

2006 324 1,152 6,154 2,490 1,334 842 126 12,422

2011 312 1,416 7,656 3,547 2,112 1,326 185 16,554

2016 351 1,853 9,724 5,253 3,346 2,250 306 23,082

2021 382 2,351 11,972 7,541 5,139 3,702 489 31,577

2026 345 2,472 12,215 8,972 6,540 5,047 649 36,241

2031 307 2,561 12,280 10,518 8,201 6,779 849 41,495Illaw

arra Sho

alhaven

2001 54 279 1,737 573 278 200 37 3,158

2006 96 329 1,826 717 386 235 42 3,631

2011 70 419 2,267 1,129 610 375 68 4,938

2016 64 505 2,581 1,593 889 524 95 6,252

2021 62 641 3,093 2,366 1,363 769 139 8,434

2026 50 677 3,082 2,922 1,739 940 170 9,579

2031 40 705 3,029 3,560 2,187 1,132 204 10,857

Mid

No

rth C

oast

2001 60 186 1,389 442 242 110 15 2,444

2006 85 269 1,507 663 367 176 34 3,101

2011 81 306 1,808 913 551 294 44 3,997

2016 100 429 2,380 1,468 938 541 76 5,930

2021 111 546 2,845 2,142 1,449 903 118 8,114

2026 103 576 2,815 2,588 1,853 1,249 152 9,336

2031 94 596 2,736 3,072 2,328 1,697 193 10,714

(continued next page)

NSW Aboriginal Population and Households Projections, 2011–2031 • Page 80

Number of Households by Age of Household Heads

Family and Community Services (FACS) Year Under 20

20-24 25-44 45-54 55-64 65-79 80 and over

Total households

Mu

rrum

bid

gee

2001 72 316 1,539 479 272 150 30 2,858

2006 111 398 1,775 692 384 258 29 3,647

2011 109 423 2,094 941 614 317 55 4,553

2016 131 503 2,597 1,381 989 458 87 6,147

2021 157 593 3,188 2,006 1,576 656 137 8,312

2026 156 582 3,258 2,426 2,093 782 179 9,474

2031 153 565 3,295 2,902 2,748 921 231 10,814

Nep

ean B

lue M

ou

ntains

2001 44 236 1,486 432 225 115 24 2,562

2006 71 232 1,621 622 338 163 17 3,064

2011 71 267 1,996 958 525 281 22 4,120

2016 81 282 2,303 1,399 780 437 22 5,305

2021 94 305 2,715 2,089 1,184 696 23 7,104

2026 90 272 2,642 2,573 1,483 913 19 7,992

2031 84 237 2,514 3,100 1,817 1,173 16 8,940

No

rthern

NSW

2001 74 240 1,695 599 288 167 25 3,088

2006 71 309 1,935 834 379 229 40 3,797

2011 74 341 2,197 1,112 643 375 75 4,817

2016 81 432 2,722 1,639 1,082 625 140 6,721

2021 85 528 3,254 2,330 1,755 1,004 254 9,210

2026 73 532 3,205 2,730 2,346 1,330 378 10,594

2031 62 524 3,089 3,130 3,069 1,725 551 12,151

No

rthern

Sydn

ey

2001 9 79 563 154 88 78 15 986

2006 17 58 514 234 120 82 23 1,048

2011 3 76 611 281 190 111 43 1,315

2016 1 73 601 327 255 125 65 1,448

2021 0 85 710 457 410 170 118 1,949

2026 0 81 684 521 538 187 175 2,187

2031 0 74 643 580 689 202 253 2,441

Sou

th E

astern Syd

ney

2001 33 186 1,323 438 254 149 30 2,413

2006 22 178 1,275 521 299 210 39 2,544

2011 46 202 1,429 688 429 284 58 3,136

2016 62 210 1,474 849 556 373 79 3,603

2021 95 247 1,724 1,188 817 556 122 4,749

2026 121 240 1,668 1,375 993 685 156 5,237

2031 150 230 1,588 1,566 1,189 831 196 5,750

(continued next page)

2.4.4 Indigenous households by age group of household heads by FACS regions (con’t)

NSW Aboriginal Population and Households Projections, 2011–2031 Page 81

2.4.4 Indigenous households by age group of household heads by FACS regions (con’t)

Number of Households by Age of Household Heads

Family and Community Services (FACS) Year Under 20

20-24 25-44 45-54 55-64 65-79 80 and over

Total households

Sou

th W

estern Syd

ney

2001 46 347 2,321 819 365 199 24 4,121

2006 49 347 2,278 941 513 288 54 4,470

2011 56 360 2,736 1,375 804 418 73 5,822

2016 64 373 3,125 1,887 1,219 610 113 7,390

2021 74 397 3,659 2,653 1,896 912 178 9,769

2026 72 351 3,571 3,111 2,457 1,137 236 10,936

2031 69 306 3,423 3,583 3,127 1,393 305 12,205

Sou

thern

NSW

2001 39 124 848 288 135 55 27 1,516

2006 43 188 916 370 218 103 11 1,849

2011 40 145 1,141 585 302 194 10 2,417

2016 40 140 1,387 881 447 355 6 3,256

2021 39 134 1,664 1,308 653 643 3 4,444

2026 31 105 1,635 1,592 781 951 2 5,097

2031 24 80 1,564 1,887 910 1,372 1 5,839

Sydn

ey

2001 19 186 1,127 376 174 93 9 1,984

2006 42 195 1,089 469 245 125 25 2,190

2011 48 200 1,194 547 357 198 25 2,569

2016 62 197 1,194 622 482 277 31 2,865

2021 95 228 1,405 832 767 458 46 3,831

2026 118 214 1,344 905 992 614 55 4,242

2031 143 197 1,255 961 1,252 803 64 4,674W

estern N

SW

2001 182 615 3,494 1,168 639 384 58 6,540

2006 224 700 3,690 1,515 831 497 64 7,521

2011 212 852 4,325 1,946 1,269 771 115 9,490

2016 266 1,243 5,988 3,068 2,232 1,368 213 14,378

2021 296 1,600 7,321 4,270 3,468 2,142 347 19,443

2026 273 1,714 7,445 4,945 4,481 2,790 471 22,119

2031 249 1,813 7,475 5,653 5,716 3,588 631 25,125

Western

Sydn

ey

2001 61 272 2,071 674 355 190 30 3,653

2006 72 333 2,181 764 484 241 42 4,117

2011 62 305 2,349 1,010 640 375 56 4,797

2016 68 353 2,886 1,458 976 618 86 6,444

2021 71 391 3,405 2,021 1,430 979 128 8,425

2026 62 362 3,349 2,334 1,746 1,292 159 9,304

2031 53 330 3,245 2,658 2,100 1,680 193 10,260

(continued next page)

NSW Aboriginal Population and Households Projections, 2011–2031 • Page 82

Number of Households by Age of Household Heads

Family and Community Services (FACS) Year Under 20

20-24 25-44 45-54 55-64 65-79 80 and over

Total households

Total NSW

2001 1,001 4,222 26,735 8,792 4,541 2,533 420 48,244

2006 1,300 4,993 28,745 11,580 6,325 3,717 590 57,250

2011 1,258 5,721 34,301 16,269 9,716 5,745 902 73,912

2016 1,447 7,118 41,869 23,660 15,203 9,206 1,425 99,928

2021 1,643 8,721 50,401 33,986 23,466 14,571 2,266 135,053

2026 1,568 8,893 50,286 40,473 30,027 19,154 3,007 153,408

2031 1,496 8,964 49,380 47,439 37,817 24,826 3,946 173,868

2.4.4 Indigenous households by age group of household heads by FACS regions (con’t)

NSW Aboriginal Population and Households Projections, 2011–2031 Page 83

2.4.5 Indigenous households by household type by FACS regions

Households by household type by FACS regions

Family and Community Services (FACS) Year Couple only Couple with dependent

children

Other household

Single parent with dependent

children

Single person

Total households

Central C

oast

2001 272 709 379 570 253 2,183

2006 402 849 587 755 379 2,972

2011 602 1,199 920 983 594 4,298

2016 779 1,389 1,243 1,116 794 5,321

2021 1,103 1,762 1,839 1,388 1,164 7,256

2026 1,303 1,864 2,269 1,440 1,421 8,297

2031 1,524 1,953 2,772 1,478 1,719 9,447

Far West

2001 97 218 170 249 91 825

2006 102 243 159 228 145 877

2011 168 239 214 266 202 1,089

2016 323 333 348 390 393 1,786

2021 506 379 462 466 623 2,436

2026 650 354 503 456 810 2,773

2031 820 324 537 439 1,035 3,156

Hu

nter New

En

gland

2001 1,235 3,146 1,817 2,539 1,176 9,913

2006 1,764 3,520 2,489 3,014 1,635 12,422

2011 2,554 4,364 3,445 3,784 2,407 16,554

2016 3,892 5,533 5,036 4,944 3,677 23,082

2021 5,783 6,840 7,179 6,297 5,478 31,577

2026 7,165 7,051 8,533 6,689 6,804 36,241

2031 8,803 7,208 10,057 7,046 8,380 41,495

Illawarra Sh

oalh

aven

2001 449 958 561 797 393 3,158

2006 496 1,022 670 970 473 3,631

2011 687 1,339 1,045 1,180 687 4,938

2016 865 1,605 1,458 1,406 918 6,252

2021 1,156 2,040 2,158 1,778 1,302 8,434

2026 1,295 2,174 2,678 1,885 1,547 9,579

2031 1,441 2,303 3,302 1,985 1,827 10,857

Mid

No

rth C

oast

2001 288 737 390 765 264 2,444

2006 406 741 611 947 396 3,101

2011 572 974 799 1,089 563 3,997

2016 923 1,337 1,268 1,471 930 5,930

2021 1,363 1,681 1,842 1,820 1,408 8,114

2026 1,681 1,763 2,234 1,880 1,778 9,336

2031 2,052 1,832 2,684 1,922 2,223 10,714

(continued next page)

NSW Aboriginal Population and Households Projections, 2011–2031 • Page 84

Households by household type by FACS regions

Family and Community Services (FACS) Year Couple only Couple with dependent

children

Other household

Single parent with dependent

children

Single person

Total households

Mu

rrum

bid

gee

2001 385 941 472 711 349 2,858

2006 532 990 644 980 501 3,647

2011 696 1,181 769 1,118 789 4,553

2016 985 1,429 1,021 1,444 1,268 6,147

2021 1,383 1,716 1,344 1,849 2,021 8,312

2026 1,619 1,718 1,476 1,976 2,686 9,474

2031 1,878 1,704 1,605 2,091 3,537 10,814

Nep

ean B

lue M

ou

ntains

2001 352 861 527 592 230 2,562

2006 498 936 576 697 357 3,064

2011 670 1,204 967 831 448 4,120

2016 904 1,446 1,386 974 594 5,305

2021 1,261 1,795 2,054 1,181 813 7,104

2026 1,468 1,861 2,540 1,194 929 7,992

2031 1,688 1,905 3,104 1,194 1,049 8,940

No

rthern

NSW

2001 340 936 554 849 409 3,088

2006 514 1,018 777 969 519 3,797

2011 693 1,199 992 1,235 698 4,817

2016 1,067 1,516 1,443 1,677 1,018 6,721

2021 1,606 1,874 2,051 2,227 1,451 9,210

2026 2,020 1,937 2,437 2,471 1,729 10,594

2031 2,522 1,986 2,875 2,722 2,044 12,151

No

rthern

Sydn

ey

2001 257 248 244 96 141 986

2006 204 261 243 144 196 1,048

2011 291 362 292 154 216 1,315

2016 314 424 305 169 237 1,448

2021 413 605 388 226 317 1,949

2026 452 718 412 252 352 2,187

2031 492 848 433 279 389 2,441

Sou

th E

astern Syd

ney

2001 362 496 644 462 449 2,413

2006 420 530 578 459 557 2,544

2011 513 672 802 511 638 3,136

2016 603 789 941 536 734 3,603

2021 812 1,061 1,265 643 967 4,749

2026 914 1,191 1,421 645 1,065 5,237

2031 1,023 1,331 1,587 644 1,166 5,750

(continued next page)

2.4.5 Indigenous households by household type by FACS regions (con’t)

NSW Aboriginal Population and Households Projections, 2011–2031 Page 85

2.4.5 Indigenous households by household type by FACS regions (con’t)

Households by household type by FACS regions

Family and Community Services (FACS) Year Couple only Couple with dependent

children

Other household

Single parent with dependent

children

Single person

Total households

Sou

th W

estern Syd

ney

2001 431 1,348 837 1,113 392 4,121

2006 607 1,214 911 1,224 514 4,470

2011 795 1,584 1,300 1,443 700 5,822

2016 1,091 1,876 1,746 1,712 966 7,390

2021 1,553 2,302 2,429 2,105 1,380 9,769

2026 1,862 2,381 2,849 2,181 1,663 10,936

2031 2,216 2,443 3,316 2,242 1,988 12,205

Sou

thern

NSW

2001 201 435 264 401 215 1,516

2006 278 509 355 433 274 1,849

2011 444 667 401 538 367 2,417

2016 701 881 502 666 506 3,256

2021 1,113 1,170 631 829 701 4,444

2026 1,473 1,294 661 860 810 5,097

2031 1,928 1,417 686 882 926 5,839

Sydn

ey

2001 268 315 572 439 390 1,984

2006 351 244 560 481 554 2,190

2011 392 308 701 495 673 2,569

2016 444 315 779 501 825 2,865

2021 601 385 1,034 605 1,206 3,831

2026 670 387 1,130 602 1,453 4,242

2031 740 385 1,223 593 1,733 4,674

Western

NSW

2001 732 2,087 1,186 1,734 801 6,540

2006 968 2,141 1,400 1,954 1,058 7,521

2011 1,384 2,505 1,769 2,268 1,564 9,490

2016 2,353 3,433 2,682 3,197 2,713 14,378

2021 3,538 4,161 3,596 3,984 4,164 19,443

2026 4,433 4,203 4,019 4,139 5,324 22,119

2031 5,495 4,200 4,443 4,253 6,735 25,125

Western

Sydn

ey

2001 471 956 805 1,023 398 3,653

2006 552 933 870 1,170 592 4,117

2011 594 1,128 1,181 1,260 634 4,797

2016 764 1,473 1,724 1,608 875 6,444

2021 954 1,867 2,441 1,992 1,171 8,425

2026 1,002 1,993 2,911 2,078 1,320 9,304

2031 1,049 2,117 3,455 2,157 1,482 10,260

(continued next page)

NSW Aboriginal Population and Households Projections, 2011–2031 • Page 86

Households by household type by FACS regions Heads

Family and Community Services (FACS) Year Couple only Couple with dependent

children

Other household

Single parent with dependent

children

Single person

Total households

Total NSW

2001 6,140 14,391 9,422 12,340 5,951 48,244

2006 8,094 15,151 11,430 14,425 8,150 57,250

2011 11,055 18,925 15,597 17,155 11,180 73,912

2016 16,009 23,779 21,881 21,811 16,447 99,928

2021 23,145 29,637 30,714 27,392 24,164 135,053

2026 28,008 30,888 36,073 28,748 29,691 153,408

2031 33,672 31,954 42,079 29,929 36,234 173,868

2.4.5 Indigenous households by household type by FACS regions (con’t)

NSW Aboriginal Population and Households Projections, 2011–2031 Page 87

2.4.6 Indigenous households by % of household income repayment of housing loans by FACS regions

Households by % of household income repayment of housing loans by FACS regions

Family and Community Services (FACS) Year 30% - 50% 30% or less More than 50%

Not applicable

Total households

Central C

oast

2001 426 1,105 192 460 2,183

2006 680 1,359 401 532 2,972

2011 864 1,997 678 759 4,298

2016 1,024 2,392 1,034 871 5,321

2021 1,322 3,125 1,719 1,091 7,256

2026 1,415 3,383 2,368 1,132 8,297

2031 1,488 3,598 3,207 1,154 9,447

Far West

2001 71 483 42 229 825

2006 119 463 75 220 877

2011 167 579 79 265 1,089

2016 332 913 133 408 1,786

2021 546 1,187 186 518 2,436

2026 741 1,275 214 543 2,773

2031 994 1,354 245 563 3,156

Hu

nter New

En

gland

2001 1,395 5874 568 2,076 9,913

2006 2,293 6468 1,226 2,435 12,422

2011 3,008 8,515 1,885 3,146 16,554

2016 4,468 11,154 3,298 4,162 23,082

2021 6,444 14,186 5,603 5,345 31,577

2026 7,704 14,957 7,889 5,691 36,241

2031 9,067 15,525 10,937 5,966 41,495Illaw

arra Sho

alhaven

2001 483 1782 176 717 3,158

2006 736 1736 464 695 3,631

2011 1,095 2,358 550 936 4,938

2016 1,583 2,789 782 1,099 6,252

2021 2,416 3,483 1,173 1,362 8,434

2026 3,075 3,627 1,469 1,408 9,579

2031 3,869 3,733 1,817 1,438 10,857

Mid

No

rth C

oast

2001 481 1,325 174 464 2,444

2006 711 1,441 403 546 3,101

2011 896 1,816 609 676 3,997

2016 1,357 2,482 1,152 939 5,930

2021 1,866 3,081 1,982 1,184 8,114

2026 2,121 3,161 2,819 1,235 9,336

2031 2,360 3,173 3,921 1,260 10,714

(continued next page)

NSW Aboriginal Population and Households Projections, 2011–2031 • Page 88

Households by % of household income repayment of housing loans by FACS regions

Family and Community Services (FACS) Year 30% - 50% 30% or less More than 50%

Not applicable

Total households

Mu

rrum

bid

gee

2006 499 1,775 322 646 3,242

2001 315 1,808 141 594 2,858

2011 790 2,413 483 867 4,553

2016 1,251 2,988 804 1,104 6,147

2021 1,955 3,649 1,321 1,387 8,312

2026 2,534 3,697 1,799 1,445 9,474

2031 3,233 3,687 2,413 1,482 10,814

Nep

ean B

lue M

ou

ntains

2001 401 1,467 165 529 2,562

2006 625 1,562 315 562 3,064

2011 776 2,133 507 704 4,120

2016 1,019 2,642 823 821 5,305

2021 1,377 3,367 1,374 985 7,104

2026 1,545 3,561 1,905 982 7,992

2031 1,699 3,693 2,590 959 8,940

No

rthern

NSW

2001 596 1,655 210 627 3,088

2006 762 1,797 492 746 3,797

2011 1,020 2,079 759 959 4,817

2016 1,466 2,559 1,385 1,311 6,721

2021 2,027 3,031 2,429 1,724 9,210

2026 2,298 2,943 3,494 1,858 10,594

2031 2,534 2,780 4,889 1,949 12,151

No

rthern

Sydn

ey

2001 136 468 101 280 986

2006 149 513 124 263 1048

2011 247 604 144 319 1315

2016 326 639 157 326 1448

2021 519 819 207 404 1949

2026 684 865 225 413 2187

2031 885 900 241 415 2441

Sou

th E

astern Syd

ney

2001 359 1,239 215 599 2413

2006 489 1,207 295 554 2544

2011 595 1,472 429 640 3136

2016 727 1,621 587 667 3603

2021 1,012 2,032 915 790 4749

2026 1,167 2,112 1,182 776 5237

2031 1,328 2,164 1,505 753 5750

(continued next page)

2.4.6 Indigenous households by % of household income repayment of housing loans by FACS regions (con’t)

NSW Aboriginal Population and Households Projections, 2011–2031 Page 89

2.4.6 Indigenous households by % of household income repayment of housing loans by FACS regions (con’t)

Households by % of household income repayment of housing loans by FACS regions

Family and Community Services (FACS) Year 30% - 50% 30% or less More than 50%

Not applicable

Total households

Sou

th W

estern Syd

ney

2001 543 2,566 282 730 4121

2006 875 2,224 566 805 4470

2011 1,181 2,916 740 985 5822

2016 1,702 3,395 1,100 1193 7390

2021 2,526 4,071 1,684 1488 9769

2026 3,138 4,087 2,158 1553 10936

2031 3,841 4,041 2,725 1,598 12,205

Sou

thern

NSW

2001 218 918 56 323 1,516

2006 310 1,018 195 325 1,849

2011 428 1,270 300 419 2,417

2016 616 1,575 552 513 3,256

2021 877 1,935 1,009 622 4,444

2026 1,023 1,947 1,510 617 5,097

2031 1,157 1,898 2,190 594 5,839

Sydn

ey

2001 302 1,205 165 313 1,984

2006 436 1,158 267 329 2,190

2011 497 1,376 340 356 2,569

2016 587 1,467 444 367 2,865

2021 825 1,863 691 452 3,831

2026 955 1,946 883 457 4,242

2031 1,092 2,009 1,117 457 4,674W

estern N

SW

2001 746 4,027 317 1,450 6,540

2006 1,108 4,178 636 1,599 7,521

2011 1,398 5,253 804 2,035 9,490

2016 2,280 7,634 1,417 3,046 14,378

2021 3,308 9,862 2,220 4,053 19,443

2026 4,018 10,671 2,913 4,516 22,119

2031 4,851 11,474 3,798 5,001 25,125

Western

Sydn

ey

2001 467 2,258 232 696 3,653

2006 781 2,190 496 649 4,117

2011 936 2,465 600 796 4,797

2016 1,419 3,033 968 1,024 6,444

2021 2,069 3,588 1,502 1,266 8,425

2026 2,516 3,541 1,942 1,306 9,304

2031 3,014 3,443 2,475 1,327 10,260

(continued next page)

NSW Aboriginal Population and Households Projections, 2011–2031 • Page 90

Households by % of household income repayment of housing loans by FACS regions

Family and Community Services (FACS) Year 30% - 50% 30% or less More than 50%

Not applicable

Total households

Total NSW

2001 7,125 28,147 3,216 10,139 48,628

2006 10,391 29,121 6,095 10,854 56,461

2011 13,897 37,246 8,907 13,862 73,912

2016 20,157 47,283 14,637 17,850 99,928

2021 29,089 59,279 24,015 22,670 135,053

2026 34,934 61,771 32,771 23,932 153,408

2031 41,413 63,473 44,069 24,914 173,868

2.4.6 Indigenous households by % of household income repayment of housing loans by FACS regions (con’t)

NSW Aboriginal Population and Households Projections, 2011–2031 Page 91

2.4.7 Indigenous households by equalized weekly household income by FACS regions

Households by equalized weekly household income by FACS regions

Family and Community Services (FACS) Year Above Sydney median

Below or equal to NSW median

From NSW median to below or equal

to Sydney median

Total households

Central C

oast

2001 509 1,460 214 2,183

2006 733 2,049 191 2,972

2011 1,173 2,837 288 4,298

2016 1,546 3,534 241 5,321

2021 2,252 4,788 216 7,256

2026 2,739 5,440 118 8,297

2031 3,302 6,145 361 9,447

Far West

2001 104 666 55 825

2006 115 727 36 877

2011 172 871 45 1,089

2016 305 1,438 43 1,786

2021 456 1,952 27 2,436

2026 564 2,209 64 2,773

2031 685 2,471 60 3,156

Hu

nter New

En

gland

2001 1,671 7,528 713 9,913

2006 2,492 9,217 712 12,422

2011 3,960 11,622 972 16,554

2016 6,312 15,629 1,141 23,082

2021 9,750 20,475 1,352 31,577

2026 12,470 22,459 1,312 36,241

2031 15,743 24,524 1,227 41,495Illaw

arra Sho

alhaven

2001 695 2,252 212 3,158

2006 799 2,641 191 3,631

2011 1,204 3,459 275 4,938

2016 1,574 4,384 294 6,252

2021 2,225 5,861 348 8,434

2026 2,641 6,597 341 9,579

2031 3,123 7,410 324 10,857

Mid

No

rth C

oast

2001 246 2,065 134 2,444

2006 409 2,571 121 3,101

2011 584 3,209 205 3,997

2016 1,018 4,646 266 5,930

2021 1,577 6,187 349 8,114

2026 2,027 6,923 386 9,336

2031 2,570 7,719 424 10,714

(continued next page)

NSW Aboriginal Population and Households Projections, 2011–2031 • Page 92

Households by equalized weekly household income by FACS regions

Family and Community Services (FACS) Year Above Sydney median

Below or equal to NSW median

From NSW median to below or equal

to Sydney median

Total households

Mu

rrum

bid

gee

2001 485 2,140 233 2,858

2006 651 2,805 190 3,647

2011 865 3,424 264 4,553

2016 1,228 4671 248 6,147

2021 1,744 6,330 238 8,312

2026 2,084 7,231 159 9,474

2031 2,488 8,271 55 10,814

Nep

ean B

lue M

ou

ntains

2001 835 1,471 256 2,562

2006 1,031 1,817 216 3,064

2011 1,515 2,324 281 4,120

2016 2,044 3,008 253 5,305

2021 2,886 3,993 225 7,104

2026 3,414 4,452 126 7,992

2031 4,006 4,934 316 8,940

No

rthern

NSW

2001 380 2,506 202 3,088

2006 657 2,938 202 3,797

2011 914 3,632 271 4,817

2016 1,538 4,853 330 6,721

2021 2,415 6,384 411 9,210

2026 3,132 7,038 424 10,594

2031 3,999 7,722 430 12,151

No

rthern

Sydn

ey

2001 588 318 80 986

2006 598 404 46 1,048

2011 778 458 79 1,315

2016 842 548 58 1,448

2021 1,130 762 57 1,949

2026 1,263 883 41 2,187

2031 1,404 1,017 19 2,441

Sou

th E

astern Syd

ney

2001 1,071 1,146 197 2,413

2006 1,106 1,279 159 2,544

2011 1,409 1,545 182 3,136

2016 1,615 1,830 159 3,603

2021 2,141 2,454 154 4,749

2026 2,376 2,753 108 5,237

2031 2,625 3,073 52 5,750

(continued next page)

2.4.7 Indigenous households by equalized weekly household income by FACS regions (con’t)

NSW Aboriginal Population and Households Projections, 2011–2031 Page 93

2.4.7 Indigenous households by equalized weekly household income by FACS regions (con’t)

Households by equalized weekly household income by FACS regions

Family and Community Services (FACS) Year Above Sydney median

Below or equal to NSW median

From NSW median to below or equal

to Sydney median

Total households

Sou

th W

estern Syd

ney

2001 1,161 2,588 373 4,121

2006 1,247 2,938 285 4,470

2011 1,772 3,669 381 5,822

2016 2,299 4,734 357 7,390

2021 3,150 6,269 350 9,769

2026 3,650 7,030 256 10,936

2031 4,212 7,859 134 12,205

Sou

thern

NSW

2001 336 1,078 102 1,516

2006 445 1,298 107 1,849

2011 687 1,592 138 2,417

2016 1,014 2,078 164 3,256

2021 1,523 2,720 201 4,444

2026 1,906 2,986 205 5,097

2031 2,366 3,269 204 5,839

Sydn

ey

2001 762 1,085 137 1,984

2006 815 1,247 127 2,190

2011 1,087 1,359 123 2,569

2016 1,239 1,520 106 2,865

2021 1,731 1,998 102 3,831

2026 2,000 2,175 68 4,242

2031 2,295 2,354 25 4,674W

estern N

SW

2001 1,028 5,049 463 6,540

2006 1,250 5,885 386 7,521

2011 1,918 7,037 535 9,490

2016 3,164 10,566 648 14,378

2021 4,715 13,992 736 19,443

2026 5,861 15,581 677 22,119

2031 7,222 17,316 587 25,125

Western

Sydn

ey

2001 1,089 2,276 288 3,653

2006 1,154 2,717 246 4,117

2011 1,347 3,172 277 4,797

2016 1,735 4,422 286 6,444

2021 2,196 5,943 286 8,425

2026 2,346 6,741 217 9,304

2031 2,499 7,630 132 10,260

(continued next page)

NSW Aboriginal Population and Households Projections, 2011–2031 • Page 94

Households by equalized weekly household income by FACS regions

Family and Community Services (FACS) Year Above Sydney median

Below or equal to NSW median

From NSW median to below or equal

to Sydney median

Total households

Total NSW

2001 10,959 33,627 3,659 48,244

2006 13,501 40,533 3,216 57,250

2011 19,387 50,210 4,315 73,912

2016 27,671 67,660 4,597 99,928

2021 39,771 90,247 5,034 135,052

2026 47,874 101,157 4,379 153,410

2031 57,314 113,108 3,446 173,868

2.4.7 Indigenous households by equalized weekly household income by FACS regions (con’t)

NSW Aboriginal Population and Households Projections, 2011–2031 Page 95

3. Appendices

Family and Community Services 2011 Census Place of Usual

ResidenceEstimated Resident Population

30 June 2011

FACS Age groups Males Females Persons Males Females Persons

Central Coast 0–4 528 526 1,055 644 629 1,273

5–9 556 521 1,078 678 623 1,301

10–14 629 564 1,192 767 674 1,440

15–19 600 513 1,113 731 614 1,345

20–24 421 376 796 513 449 962

25–29 243 311 555 297 372 669

30–34 227 243 470 277 291 568

35–39 203 252 455 248 301 549

40–44 230 283 514 281 339 619

45–49 214 285 500 261 341 602

50–54 200 209 409 244 250 494

55–59 122 153 274 148 183 331

60–64 106 138 243 129 165 293

65–69 67 80 148 82 96 178

70–74 49 63 113 60 76 136

75–79 35 30 65 43 36 79

80+ 34 57 91 42 68 110

All ages 4,466 4,606 9,072 5,445 5,505 10,950

Far West 0–4 143 205 348 174 245 419

5–9 165 166 331 201 198 399

10–14 185 156 341 226 186 412

15–19 160 187 347 195 223 418

20–24 139 144 282 169 172 341

25–29 122 98 220 148 118 266

30–34 72 73 146 88 88 176

35–39 99 95 194 120 114 234

40–44 67 124 191 82 148 230

45–49 84 103 187 102 124 225

50–54 64 79 144 78 95 173

55–59 44 48 92 54 58 112

60–64 37 51 88 45 61 107

65–69 19 29 48 23 35 58

70–74 19 21 40 23 25 49

75–79 8 13 21 10 16 25

80+ 8 8 16 10 10 19

All ages 1,436 1,601 3,037 1,750 1,914 3,664

APPENDIX 1: 2011 CENSUS COUNT OF INDIGENOUS POPULATION BY AGE GROUPS AND SEX, BASED ON PLACE OF USUAL RESIDENCE AND ESTIMATED RESIDENT POPULATION AT 30 JUNE 2011 BY FAMILY AND COMMUNITY SERVICES , NSW

(continued next page)

NSW Aboriginal Population and Households Projections, 2011–2031 • Page 96

Family and Community Services 2011 Census Place of Usual

ResidenceEstimated Resident Population

30 June 2011

FACS Age groups Males Females Persons Males Females Persons

Hunter New England 0–4 2,571 2,464 5,035 3,134 2,946 6,080

5–9 2,453 2,380 4,833 2,990 2,845 5,835

10–14 2,407 2,391 4,799 2,934 2,859 5,793

15–19 2,280 2,181 4,461 2,779 2,607 5,386

20–24 1,544 1,570 3,114 1,882 1,877 3,759

25–29 1,158 1,274 2,431 1,411 1,523 2,934

30–34 987 1,039 2,025 1,203 1,242 2,445

35–39 1,081 1,208 2,289 1,317 1,444 2,761

40–44 1,049 1,249 2,298 1,279 1,493 2,771

45–49 940 1,108 2,049 1,146 1,325 2,471

50–54 890 998 1,888 1,085 1,193 2,278

55–59 641 727 1,368 782 869 1,651

60–64 503 537 1,040 613 642 1,255

65–69 367 357 724 448 427 875

70–74 225 260 485 274 311 585

75–79 125 155 279 152 185 337

80+ 71 134 205 87 160 247

All ages 19,292 20,031 39,323 23,517 23,945 47,462

Illawarra Shoalhaven 0–4 670 736 1,406 817 880 1,697

5–9 664 598 1,262 810 714 1,524

10–14 703 652 1,355 857 779 1,637

15–19 642 610 1,252 783 729 1,511

20–24 475 414 889 579 495 1,074

25–29 366 358 724 446 427 874

30–34 277 285 562 337 341 678

35–39 281 322 603 342 385 728

40–44 272 329 601 331 394 725

45–49 242 324 567 296 388 683

50–54 231 252 484 282 301 583

55–59 192 183 375 234 219 453

60–64 131 133 263 159 158 318

65–69 80 102 183 98 122 221

70–74 53 64 118 65 77 142

75–79 34 47 81 42 56 98

80+ 37 58 95 45 70 115

All ages 5,352 5,468 10,820 6,524 6,537 13,061

APPENDIX 1: 2011 CENSUS COUNT OF INDIGENOUS POPULATION BY AGE GROUPS AND SEX, BASED ON PLACE OF USUAL RESIDENCE AND ESTIMATED RESIDENT POPULATION AT 30 JUNE 2011 BY FAMILY AND COMMUNITY SERVICES , NSW (con’t)

NSW Aboriginal Population and Households Projections, 2011–2031 Page 97

Family and Community Services 2011 Census Place of Usual

ResidenceEstimated Resident Population

30 June 2011

FACS Age groups Males Females Persons Males Females Persons

Mid North Coast 0–4 694 627 1,321 846 749 1,596

5–9 640 630 1,270 780 753 1,533

10–14 640 651 1,291 780 778 1,558

15–19 561 549 1,111 684 657 1,341

20–24 376 371 747 459 443 902

25–29 304 298 602 370 357 727

30–34 238 257 496 291 307 598

35–39 256 292 548 312 349 661

40–44 260 332 592 316 397 714

45–49 243 303 547 297 363 659

50–54 239 269 509 292 322 614

55–59 199 210 409 243 251 494

60–64 122 140 261 148 167 315

65–69 95 95 190 115 114 229

70–74 56 64 121 69 77 146

75–79 32 33 65 39 40 79

80+ 40 20 60 49 24 73

All ages 4,997 5,143 10,140 6,091 6,148 12,239

Murrumbidgee 0–4 705 733 1,438 860 876 1,735

(Including Albury) 5–9 626 677 1,303 763 810 1,573

10–14 712 624 1,336 868 746 1,614

15–19 603 581 1,184 735 695 1,430

20–24 419 393 812 511 469 980

25–29 359 356 714 437 425 862

30–34 269 302 572 328 361 690

35–39 285 325 610 347 388 736

40–44 270 304 574 329 364 693

45–49 274 318 592 335 380 715

50–54 226 237 463 275 283 558

55–59 182 172 354 222 206 427

60–64 172 122 294 209 146 355

65–69 84 92 176 102 110 212

70–74 42 64 106 51 76 127

75–79 17 35 52 21 42 63

80+ 23 26 49 28 31 59

All ages 5,267 5,361 10,628 6,420 6,408 12,829

(continued next page)

APPENDIX 1: 2011 CENSUS COUNT OF INDIGENOUS POPULATION BY AGE GROUPS AND SEX, BASED ON PLACE OF USUAL RESIDENCE AND ESTIMATED RESIDENT POPULATION AT 30 JUNE 2011 BY FAMILY AND COMMUNITY SERVICES , NSW (con’t)

NSW Aboriginal Population and Households Projections, 2011–2031 • Page 98

Family and Community Services 2011 Census Place of Usual

ResidenceEstimated Resident Population

30 June 2011

FACS Age groups Males Females Persons Males Females Persons

Nepean Blue Mountains 0–4 550 554 1,105 671 663 1,334

5–9 588 476 1,064 716 569 1,285

10–14 624 542 1,166 760 648 1,409

15–19 533 535 1,069 650 640 1,290

20–24 456 420 876 556 502 1,058

25–29 308 318 626 375 381 756

30–34 242 270 513 296 323 619

35–39 261 310 571 318 371 689

40–44 247 299 546 301 358 658

45–49 211 278 490 258 333 590

50–54 197 212 409 240 253 494

55–59 146 153 299 178 183 360

60–64 122 104 226 148 125 273

65–69 66 77 144 81 92 173

70–74 42 34 76 52 41 92

75–79 25 20 45 31 24 55

80+ 5 28 33 6 34 40

All ages 4,623 4,634 9,257 5,636 5,539 11,175

Northern NSW 0–4 774 668 1,442 944 798 1,742

5–9 709 686 1,394 864 820 1,683

10–14 746 733 1,479 910 876 1,785

15–19 654 669 1,323 797 799 1,597

20–24 404 391 795 493 467 959

25–29 320 335 655 389 401 790

30–34 289 310 599 352 371 723

35–39 291 390 681 354 467 821

40–44 327 387 714 399 462 861

45–49 264 332 596 322 397 719

50–54 269 288 557 328 344 672

55–59 207 223 430 252 267 519

60–64 139 160 299 170 191 361

65–69 108 94 201 131 112 243

70–74 63 64 127 76 77 153

75–79 46 45 92 57 54 111

80+ 20 66 86 25 79 104

All ages 5,630 5,841 11,472 6,864 6,983 13,846

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APPENDIX 1: 2011 CENSUS COUNT OF INDIGENOUS POPULATION BY AGE GROUPS AND SEX, BASED ON PLACE OF USUAL RESIDENCE AND ESTIMATED RESIDENT POPULATION AT 30 JUNE 2011 BY FAMILY AND COMMUNITY SERVICES , NSW (con’t)

NSW Aboriginal Population and Households Projections, 2011–2031 Page 99

Family and Community Services 2011 Census Place of Usual

ResidenceEstimated Resident Population

30 June 2011

FACS Age groups Males Females Persons Males Females Persons

Northern Sydney 0–4 116 96 212 141 115 256

5–9 116 105 221 141 126 267

10–14 129 129 257 157 154 311

15–19 121 121 241 147 144 291

20–24 119 98 217 145 118 262

25–29 69 101 171 85 121 206

30–34 73 85 159 90 102 192

35–39 86 99 185 104 119 223

40–44 91 93 184 110 112 222

45–49 84 76 160 102 91 193

50–54 53 65 119 65 78 143

55–59 70 52 123 86 62 148

60–64 39 28 67 48 34 81

65–69 27 40 67 33 48 81

70–74 24 19 43 29 23 52

75–79 14 3 17 17 4 21

80+ 5 28 33 6 34 40

All ages 1,236 1,242 2,477 1,506 1,484 2,990

South Eastern Sydney 0–4 307 279 586 374 334 708

5–9 333 282 615 406 337 743

10–14 283 291 574 345 348 693

15–19 333 288 621 406 345 751

20–24 312 283 595 380 339 719

25–29 254 234 488 309 280 589

30–34 212 203 415 259 243 501

35–39 251 211 461 305 252 558

40–44 241 219 460 294 262 556

45–49 183 193 376 223 231 454

50–54 182 156 338 222 186 408

55–59 106 142 247 129 169 298

60–64 102 114 215 124 136 260

65–69 69 82 152 85 98 183

70–74 33 55 88 40 66 107

75–79 32 29 61 39 35 74

80+ 14 33 47 17 40 57

All ages 3,247 3,095 6,342 3,958 3,700 7,658

(continued next page)

APPENDIX 1: 2011 CENSUS COUNT OF INDIGENOUS POPULATION BY AGE GROUPS AND SEX, BASED ON PLACE OF USUAL RESIDENCE AND ESTIMATED RESIDENT POPULATION AT 30 JUNE 2011 BY FAMILY AND COMMUNITY SERVICES , NSW (con’t)

NSW Aboriginal Population and Households Projections, 2011–2031 • Page 100

Family and Community Services 2011 Census Place of Usual

ResidenceEstimated Resident Population

30 June 2011

FACS Age groups Males Females Persons Males Females Persons

South Western Sydney 0–4 870 801 1,671 1,061 957 2,018

5–9 863 801 1,664 1,052 957 2,009

10–14 811 791 1,602 989 945 1,934

15–19 790 782 1,572 963 935 1,898

20–24 492 515 1,007 600 616 1,216

25–29 347 448 795 423 536 959

30–34 312 418 730 380 500 880

35–39 316 449 765 385 537 922

40–44 306 423 729 373 506 878

45–49 285 373 657 347 445 793

50–54 277 352 628 337 420 758

55–59 219 251 470 267 300 568

60–64 177 184 361 216 220 436

65–69 85 101 186 103 121 224

70–74 62 81 144 76 97 173

75–79 37 54 91 45 65 110

80+ 24 46 70 29 55 85

All ages 6,273 6,870 13,143 7,647 8,212 15,859

Southern NSW 0–4 344 315 660 419 377 797

5–9 381 323 705 465 387 852

10–14 349 359 708 426 429 854

15–19 317 283 600 386 339 725

20–24 170 178 348 207 213 420

25–29 186 176 362 227 210 437

30–34 146 152 298 178 181 359

35–39 178 163 341 217 195 412

40–44 175 172 347 213 205 419

45–49 161 166 327 196 198 394

50–54 122 158 279 148 189 337

55–59 94 121 214 114 144 258

60–64 77 82 160 94 98 193

65–69 46 49 96 56 59 115

70–74 42 32 74 52 38 90

75–79 14 25 39 17 30 47

80+ 0 8 8 0 10 10

All ages 2,803 2,761 5,565 3,417 3,301 6,718

(continued next page)

APPENDIX 1: 2011 CENSUS COUNT OF INDIGENOUS POPULATION BY AGE GROUPS AND SEX, BASED ON PLACE OF USUAL RESIDENCE AND ESTIMATED RESIDENT POPULATION AT 30 JUNE 2011 BY FAMILY AND COMMUNITY SERVICES , NSW (con’t)

NSW Aboriginal Population and Households Projections, 2011–2031 Page 101

Family and Community Services 2011 Census Place of Usual

ResidenceEstimated Resident Population

30 June 2011

FACS Age groups Males Females Persons Males Females Persons

Sydney 0–4 225 238 463 275 285 559

5–9 204 192 396 249 229 478

10–14 182 179 361 222 214 436

15–19 218 232 450 266 277 544

20–24 233 247 481 285 295 580

25–29 201 248 449 245 297 542

30–34 152 178 330 185 213 398

35–39 155 179 334 189 214 403

40–44 171 213 384 209 255 463

45–49 138 200 338 168 239 407

50–54 149 150 299 182 179 360

55–59 124 128 251 151 152 303

60–64 63 75 139 77 90 167

65–69 49 51 101 60 61 121

70–74 21 33 54 26 40 65

75–79 16 32 48 20 38 58

80+ 12 18 30 15 22 36

All ages 2,315 2,593 4,908 2,822 3,099 5,921

Western NSW 0–4 1,622 1,606 3,228 1,977 1,920 3,897

5–9 1,522 1,411 2,933 1,855 1,687 3,542

10–14 1,568 1,507 3,075 1,911 1,802 3,713

15–19 1,411 1,324 2,735 1,720 1,583 3,302

20–24 996 989 1,985 1,214 1,183 2,397

25–29 738 753 1,491 900 901 1,800

30–34 614 680 1,294 749 813 1,562

35–39 632 800 1,432 770 956 1,727

40–44 700 838 1,538 853 1,002 1,855

45–49 643 652 1,296 784 780 1,564

50–54 548 566 1,114 668 676 1,344

55–59 469 453 922 572 541 1,113

60–64 350 361 711 426 432 858

65–69 231 254 486 282 304 586

70–74 153 164 318 187 197 383

75–79 70 110 180 85 132 217

80+ 49 99 148 59 119 178

All ages 12,315 12,570 24,885 15,012 15,026 30,038

APPENDIX 1: 2011 CENSUS COUNT OF INDIGENOUS POPULATION BY AGE GROUPS AND SEX, BASED ON PLACE OF USUAL RESIDENCE AND ESTIMATED RESIDENT POPULATION AT 30 JUNE 2011 BY FAMILY AND COMMUNITY SERVICES , NSW (con’t)

(continued next page)

NSW Aboriginal Population and Households Projections, 2011–2031 • Page 102

Family and Community Services 2011 Census Place of Usual

ResidenceEstimated Resident Population

30 June 2011

FACS Age groups Males Females Persons Males Females Persons

Western Sydney 0–4 750 711 1,461 914 850 1,764

5–9 737 656 1,392 898 784 1,682

10–14 716 601 1,317 873 718 1,591

15–19 713 614 1,327 870 734 1,603

20–24 512 507 1,019 624 606 1,231

25–29 421 423 843 513 506 1,018

30–34 346 358 704 422 427 849

35–39 346 373 719 422 445 867

40–44 306 364 670 373 435 808

45–49 260 296 556 316 354 671

50–54 210 226 436 256 270 527

55–59 175 213 388 213 255 468

60–64 139 177 316 169 211 381

65–69 105 84 189 128 101 228

70–74 38 63 102 47 76 122

75–79 38 38 76 47 46 92

80+ 16 26 42 20 31 51

All ages 5,828 5,730 11,557 7,104 6,849 13,953

NSW 0–4 10,871 10,560 21,431 13,252 12,623 25,875

5–9 10,557 9,904 20,461 12,869 11,839 24,708

10–14 10,685 10,168 20,853 13,025 12,155 25,180

15–19 9,936 9,470 19,406 12,112 11,321 23,433

20–24 7,067 6,896 13,963 8,615 8,243 16,858

25–29 5,395 5,733 11,128 6,577 6,853 13,429

30–34 4,458 4,854 9,312 5,435 5,802 11,237

35–39 4,718 5,469 10,187 5,751 6,538 12,289

40–44 4,712 5,629 10,341 5,744 6,729 12,473

45–49 4,227 5,009 9,236 5,153 5,988 11,141

50–54 3,859 4,216 8,075 4,704 5,040 9,743

55–59 2,990 3,227 6,218 3,645 3,858 7,503

60–64 2,278 2,406 4,684 2,777 2,876 5,653

65–69 1,499 1,591 3,090 1,828 1,902 3,730

70–74 925 1,084 2,009 1,127 1,296 2,423

75–79 544 671 1,215 664 802 1,466

80+ 359 657 1,016 438 785 1,223

All ages 85,080 87,545 172,625 103,714 104,650 208,364

APPENDIX 1: 2011 CENSUS COUNT OF INDIGENOUS POPULATION BY AGE GROUPS AND SEX, BASED ON PLACE OF USUAL RESIDENCE AND ESTIMATED RESIDENT POPULATION AT 30 JUNE 2011 BY FAMILY AND COMMUNITY SERVICES , NSW (con’t)

NSW Aboriginal Population and Households Projections, 2011–2031 Page 103

2011 Census Place of Usual Residence

Estimated Resident Population 30 June 2011

AHO Regions Age groups Males Females Persons Males Females Persons

AHO Western 0–4 2,499 2,599 5,098 3,065 3,121 6,186

5–9 2,355 2,283 4,638 2,888 2,741 5,630

10–14 2,506 2,328 4,834 3,074 2,796 5,869

15–19 2,206 2,109 4,315 2,706 2,533 5,238

20–24 1,584 1,535 3,119 1,943 1,843 3,786

25–29 1,235 1,228 2,463 1,515 1,475 2,989

30–34 975 1,060 2,035 1,196 1,273 2,469

35–39 1,029 1,244 2,273 1,262 1,494 2,756

40–44 1,067 1,272 2,339 1,309 1,527 2,836

45–49 1,006 1,087 2,093 1,234 1,305 2,539

50–54 859 907 1,766 1,054 1,089 2,143

55–59 712 686 1,398 873 824 1,697

60–64 565 551 1,116 693 662 1,355

65–69 355 371 726 435 446 881

70–74 224 266 490 275 319 594

75–79 118 149 267 145 179 324

80+ 85 148 233 104 178 282

All ages 19,380 19,823 39,203 23,770 23,804 47,574

AHO Northern 0–4 4,547 4,267 8,814 5,577 5,124 10,701

5–9 4,319 4,207 8,526 5,297 5,052 10,349

10–14 4,382 4,318 8,700 5,375 5,185 10,560

15–19 4,060 3,895 7,955 4,980 4,677 9,657

20–24 2,727 2,707 5,434 3,345 3,251 6,595

25–29 2,015 2,206 4,221 2,471 2,649 5,120

30–34 1,748 1,850 3,598 2,144 2,222 4,365

35–39 1,815 2,134 3,949 2,226 2,563 4,789

40–44 1,848 2,232 4,080 2,267 2,680 4,947

45–49 1,665 2,022 3,687 2,042 2,428 4,470

50–54 1,587 1,737 3,324 1,946 2,086 4,032

55–59 1,166 1,299 2,465 1,430 1,560 2,990

60–64 873 944 1,817 1,071 1,134 2,204

65–69 611 631 1,242 749 758 1,507

70–74 364 442 806 446 531 977

75–79 223 256 479 274 307 581

80+ 149 256 405 183 307 490

All ages 34,099 35,403 69,502 41,823 42,513 84,336

APPENDIX 2: 2011 CENSUS COUNT OF INDIGENOUS POPULATION BY AGE GROUPS AND SEX, BASED ON PLACE OF USUAL RESIDENCE AND ESTIMATED RESIDENT POPULATION AT 30 JUNE 2011 BY ABORIGINAL HOUSING OFFICE (AHO) REGIONS, NSW

(continued next page)

NSW Aboriginal Population and Households Projections, 2011–2031 • Page 104

Family and Community Services 2011 Census Place of Usual

ResidenceEstimated Resident Population

30 June 2011

AHO Regions Age groups Males Females Persons Males Females Persons

Sydney/South Eastern 0–4 3,758 3,649 7,407 4,609 4,382 8,991

5–9 3,815 3,371 7,186 4,679 4,048 8,727

10–14 3,738 3,475 7,213 4,585 4,173 8,758

15–19 3,604 3,430 7,034 4,420 4,119 8,539

20–24 2,715 2,621 5,336 3,330 3,147 6,477

25–29 2,110 2,265 4,375 2,588 2,720 5,308

30–34 1,706 1,926 3,632 2,092 2,313 4,405

35–39 1,841 2,068 3,909 2,258 2,483 4,741

40–44 1,771 2,097 3,868 2,172 2,518 4,690

45–49 1,535 1,874 3,409 1,883 2,250 4,133

50–54 1,389 1,556 2,945 1,704 1,868 3,572

55–59 1,089 1,226 2,315 1,336 1,472 2,808

60–64 822 903 1,725 1,008 1,084 2,093

65–69 526 578 1,104 645 694 1,339

70–74 325 371 696 399 446 844

75–79 199 263 462 244 316 560

80+ 138 249 387 169 299 468

All ages 31,081 31,922 63,003 38,121 38,333 76,454

Total NSW 0–4 10,804 10,515 21,319 13,251 12,627 25,878

5–9 10,489 9,861 20,350 12,865 11,841 24,706

10–14 10,626 10,121 20,747 13,033 12,154 25,187

15–19 9,870 9,434 19,304 12,106 11,329 23,434

20–24 7,026 6,863 13,889 8,617 8,241 16,859

25–29 5,360 5,699 11,059 6,574 6,844 13,418

30–34 4,429 4,836 9,265 5,432 5,807 11,239

35–39 4,685 5,446 10,131 5,746 6,540 12,286

40–44 4,686 5,601 10,287 5,747 6,726 12,473

45–49 4,206 4,983 9,189 5,159 5,984 11,142

50–54 3,835 4,200 8,035 4,704 5,043 9,747

55–59 2,967 3,211 6,178 3,639 3,856 7,495

60–64 2,260 2,398 4,658 2,772 2,880 5,652

65–69 1,492 1,580 3,072 1,830 1,897 3,727

70–74 913 1,079 1,992 1,120 1,296 2,416

75–79 540 668 1,208 662 802 1,464

80+ 372 653 1,025 456 784 1,240

All ages 84,560 87,148 171,708 103,714 104,650 208,364

APPENDIX 2: 2011 CENSUS COUNT OF INDIGENOUS POPULATION BY AGE GROUPS AND SEX, BASED ON PLACE OF USUAL RESIDENCE AND ESTIMATED RESIDENT POPULATION AT 30 JUNE 2011 BY ABORIGINAL HOUSING OFFICE (AHO) REGIONS, NSW (con’t)

NSW Aboriginal Population and Households Projections, 2011–2031 Page 105

2011 Census Place of Usual Residence

Estimated Resident Population 30 June 2011

Indigenous Regions IREG Age groups Males Females Persons Males Females Persons

Dubbo 0–4 792 791 1,583 965 946 1,911

5–9 723 619 1,342 881 740 1,621

10–14 724 709 1,433 883 848 1,730

15–19 647 609 1,256 789 728 1,517

20–24 434 446 880 529 533 1,062

25–29 361 354 715 440 423 863

30–34 278 315 593 339 377 715

35–39 282 365 647 344 436 780

40–44 296 358 654 361 428 789

45–49 258 275 533 314 329 643

50–54 230 284 514 280 340 620

55–59 207 210 417 252 251 503

60–64 157 153 310 191 183 374

65–69 88 109 197 107 130 238

70–74 59 67 126 72 80 152

75–79 37 49 86 45 59 104

80+ 12 41 53 15 49 64

All ages 5,585 5,754 11,339 6,808 6,878 13,686

North Eastern NSW 0–4 1,168 1,126 2,294 1,424 1,346 2,770

5–9 1,050 1,043 2,093 1,280 1,247 2,527

10–14 1,055 1,048 2,103 1,286 1,253 2,539

15–19 949 923 1,872 1,157 1,103 2,260

20–24 646 655 1,301 787 783 1,570

25–29 490 557 1,047 597 666 1,263

30–34 418 509 927 510 608 1,118

35–39 462 524 986 563 626 1,190

40–44 461 538 999 562 643 1,205

45–49 422 480 902 514 574 1,088

50–54 412 434 846 502 519 1,021

55–59 285 300 585 347 359 706

60–64 242 227 469 295 271 566

65–69 168 163 331 205 195 400

70–74 94 123 217 115 147 262

75–79 60 67 127 73 80 153

80+ 33 51 84 40 61 101

All ages 8,415 8,768 17,183 10,258 10,481 20,739

APPENDIX 3: 2011 CENSUS COUNT OF INDIGENOUS POPULATION BY AGE GROUPS AND SEX, BASED ON PLACE OF USUAL RESIDENCE AND ESTIMATED RESIDENT POPULATION AT 30 JUNE 2011 BY INDIGENOUS REGIONS (IREG), NSW

(continued next page)

NSW Aboriginal Population and Households Projections, 2011–2031 • Page 106

2011 Census Place of Usual

ResidenceEstimated Resident Population

30 June 2011

Indigenous Regions IREG Age groups Males Females Persons Males Females Persons

North Western NSW 0–4 405 459 864 494 549 1,042

5–9 443 450 893 540 538 1,078

10–14 432 393 825 527 470 996

15–19 379 405 784 462 484 946

20–24 301 321 622 367 384 751

25–29 223 240 463 272 287 559

30–34 198 209 407 241 250 491

35–39 226 273 499 275 326 602

40–44 225 289 514 274 345 620

45–49 225 236 461 274 282 556

50–54 183 210 393 223 251 474

55–59 169 148 317 206 177 383

60–64 116 137 253 141 164 305

65–69 89 78 167 108 93 202

70–74 40 62 102 49 74 123

75-79 20 35 55 24 42 66

80+ 28 43 71 34 51 86

All ages 3,702 3,988 7,690 4,513 4,767 9,280

NSW Central and North Coast 0–4 3,375 3,142 6,517 4,114 3,756 7,870

5–9 3,266 3,162 6,428 3,981 3,780 7,761

10–14 3,327 3,273 6,600 4,056 3,913 7,968

15–19 3,112 2,972 6,084 3,793 3,553 7,346

20–24 2,078 2,052 4,130 2,533 2,453 4,986

25–29 1,529 1,648 3,177 1,864 1,970 3,834

30–34 1,336 1,334 2,670 1,629 1,595 3,223

35–39 1,353 1,614 2,967 1,649 1,929 3,579

40–44 1,383 1,696 3,079 1,686 2,027 3,713

45–49 1,239 1,543 2,782 1,510 1,845 3,355

50–54 1,176 1,302 2,478 1,434 1,556 2,990

55–59 881 1,002 1,883 1,074 1,198 2,272

60–64 636 715 1,351 775 855 1,630

65–69 443 468 911 540 559 1,099

70–74 275 318 593 335 380 715

75-79 160 192 352 195 230 425

80+ 119 198 317 145 237 382

All ages 25,688 26,631 52,319 31,313 31,835 63,148

APPENDIX 3: 2011 CENSUS COUNT OF INDIGENOUS POPULATION BY AGE GROUPS AND SEX, BASED ON PLACE OF USUAL RESIDENCE AND ESTIMATED RESIDENT POPULATION AT 30 JUNE 2011 BY INDIGENOUS REGIONS (IREG), NSW (con’t)

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NSW Aboriginal Population and Households Projections, 2011–2031 Page 107

2011 Census Place of Usual Residence

Estimated Resident Population 30 June 2011

Indigenous Regions IREG Age groups Males Females Persons Males Females Persons

Riverina-Orange 0–4 1,305 1,346 2,651 1,591 1,609 3,200

5–9 1,188 1,215 2,403 1,448 1,452 2,901

10–14 1,349 1,223 2,572 1,644 1,462 3,106

15–19 1,187 1,095 2,282 1,447 1,309 2,756

20–24 851 769 1,620 1,037 919 1,957

25–29 649 639 1,288 791 764 1,555

30–34 499 539 1,038 608 644 1,253

35–39 522 603 1,125 636 721 1,357

40–44 547 624 1,171 667 746 1,413

45–49 519 576 1,095 633 689 1,321

50–54 445 414 859 542 495 1,037

55–59 338 330 668 412 394 807

60–64 287 262 549 350 313 663

65–69 175 186 361 213 222 436

70–74 127 135 262 155 161 316

75-79 62 65 127 76 78 153

80+ 36 64 100 44 77 120

All ages 10,086 10,085 20,171 12,295 12,056 24,350

South Eastern NSW 0–4 645 698 1,343 786 834 1,621

5–9 706 645 1,351 861 771 1,632

10–14 683 678 1,361 833 810 1,643

15–19 625 557 1,182 762 666 1,428

20–24 392 347 739 478 415 893

25–29 333 333 666 406 398 804

30–34 269 298 567 328 356 684

35–39 310 335 645 378 400 778

40–44 314 323 637 383 386 769

45–49 276 329 605 336 393 730

50–54 249 298 547 304 356 660

55–59 191 208 399 233 249 481

60–64 159 153 312 194 183 377

65–69 106 105 211 129 126 255

70–74 76 62 138 93 74 167

75-79 29 46 75 35 55 90

80+ 20 36 56 24 43 67

All ages 5,383 5,451 10,834 6,562 6,516 13,078

APPENDIX 3: 2011 CENSUS COUNT OF INDIGENOUS POPULATION BY AGE GROUPS AND SEX, BASED ON PLACE OF USUAL RESIDENCE AND ESTIMATED RESIDENT POPULATION AT 30 JUNE 2011 BY INDIGENOUS REGIONS (IREG), NSW (con’t)

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NSW Aboriginal Population and Households Projections, 2011–2031 • Page 108

2011 Census Place of Usual

ResidenceEstimated Resident Population

30 June 2011

Indigenous Regions IREG Age groups Males Females Persons Males Females Persons

Sydney Wollongong 0–4 3,114 2,953 6,067 3,796 3,530 7,326

5–9 3,115 2,722 5,837 3,797 3,254 7,051

10–14 3,053 2,799 5,852 3,722 3,346 7,068

15–19 2,974 2,873 5,847 3,625 3,434 7,060

20–24 2,325 2,272 4,597 2,834 2,716 5,550

25–29 1,776 1,934 3,710 2,165 2,312 4,477

30–34 1,434 1,629 3,063 1,748 1,947 3,695

35–39 1,531 1,730 3,261 1,866 2,068 3,934

40–44 1,457 1,776 3,233 1,776 2,123 3,899

45–49 1,264 1,546 2,810 1,541 1,848 3,389

50–54 1,140 1,256 2,396 1,390 1,501 2,891

55–59 898 1,013 1,911 1,095 1,211 2,306

60–64 664 751 1,415 809 898 1,707

65–69 420 473 893 512 565 1,077

70–74 248 310 558 302 371 673

75–79 171 215 386 208 257 465

80+ 115 219 334 140 262 402

All ages 25,699 26,471 52,170 31,326 31,644 62,971

Migratory/No Usual Address 0–4 40 50 90 49 60 109

(NSW) 5–9 24 19 43 29 23 52

10–14 18 18 36 22 22 43

15–19 57 43 100 69 51 121

20–24 52 45 97 63 54 117

25–29 42 44 86 51 53 104

30–34 44 48 92 54 57 111

35–39 54 30 84 66 36 102

40–44 62 22 84 76 26 102

45–49 50 22 72 61 26 87

50–54 42 16 58 51 19 70

55–59 16 15 31 20 18 37

60–64 10 13 23 12 16 28

65–69 8 3 11 10 4 13

70–74 3 3 6 4 4 8

75–79 0 0 0 0 0 0

80+ 3 3 6 4 4 8

All ages 525 394 919 640 471 1,111

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APPENDIX 3: 2011 CENSUS COUNT OF INDIGENOUS POPULATION BY AGE GROUPS AND SEX, BASED ON PLACE OF USUAL RESIDENCE AND ESTIMATED RESIDENT POPULATION AT 30 JUNE 2011 BY INDIGENOUS REGIONS (IREG), NSW (con’t)

NSW Aboriginal Population and Households Projections, 2011–2031 Page 109

2011 Census Place of Usual Residence

Estimated Resident Population 30 June 2011

Indigenous Regions IREG Age groups Males Females Persons Males Females Persons

NSW 0–4 10,844 10,565 21,409 13,219 12,630 25,848

5–9 10,515 9,875 20,390 12,818 11,805 24,622

10–14 10,641 10,141 20,782 12,971 12,123 25,094

15–19 9,930 9,477 19,407 12,104 11,329 23,433

20–24 7,079 6,907 13,986 8,629 8,257 16,886

25–29 5,403 5,749 11,152 6,586 6,873 13,459

30–34 4,476 4,881 9,357 5,456 5,835 11,291

35–39 4,740 5,474 10,214 5,778 6,544 12,322

40–44 4,745 5,626 10,371 5,784 6,725 12,510

45–49 4,253 5,007 9,260 5,184 5,985 11,170

50–54 3,877 4,214 8,091 4,726 5,038 9,763

55–59 2,985 3,226 6,211 3,639 3,856 7,495

60–64 2,271 2,411 4,682 2,768 2,882 5,650

65–69 1,497 1,585 3,082 1,825 1,895 3,720

70–74 922 1,080 2,002 1,124 1,291 2,415

75–79 539 669 1,208 657 800 1,457

80+ 366 655 1,021 446 783 1,230

All ages 85,083 87,542 172,625 103,714 104,650 208,365

APPENDIX 3: 2011 CENSUS COUNT OF INDIGENOUS POPULATION BY AGE GROUPS AND SEX, BASED ON PLACE OF USUAL RESIDENCE AND ESTIMATED RESIDENT POPULATION AT 30 JUNE 2011 BY INDIGENOUS REGIONS (IREG), NSW (con’t)

NSW Aboriginal Population and Households Projections, 2011–2031 • Page 110

Remoteness areas2011 Census Place of Usual

ResidenceEstimated Resident Population

30 June 2011

RA Age groups Males Females Persons Males Females Persons

Major Cities 0–4 4,020 3,770 7,790 5,209 4,790 9,998

5–9 4,002 3,516 7,518 5,185 4,467 9,652

10–14 3,933 3,634 7,567 5,096 4,617 9,713

15–19 3,904 3,681 7,585 5,058 4,677 9,735

20–24 3,013 2,907 5,920 3,904 3,693 7,597

25–29 2,208 2,500 4,708 2,861 3,176 6,037

30–34 1,815 2,034 3,849 2,352 2,584 4,936

35–39 1,902 2,140 4,042 2,464 2,719 5,183

40–44 1,848 2,206 4,054 2,394 2,803 5,197

45–49 1,635 2,000 3,635 2,118 2,541 4,659

50–54 1,446 1,622 3,068 1,874 2,061 3,934

55–59 1,135 1,284 2,419 1,471 1,631 3,102

60–64 837 956 1,793 1,084 1,215 2,299

65–69 542 608 1,150 702 772 1,475

70–74 330 407 737 428 517 945

75–79 226 264 490 293 335 628

80+ 144 290 434 187 368 555

All ages 32,940 33,819 66,759 42,679 42,968 85,647

Inner Regional 0–4 4,144 4,094 8,238 5,369 5,202 10,571

5–9 3,920 3,779 7,699 5,079 4,801 9,880

10–14 4,016 3,947 7,963 5,203 5,015 10,218

15–19 3,628 3,512 7,140 4,701 4,462 9,163

20–24 2,448 2,409 4,857 3,172 3,061 6,232

25–29 1,885 1,904 3,789 2,442 2,419 4,861

30–34 1,605 1,647 3,252 2,080 2,093 4,172

35–39 1,636 1,955 3,591 2,120 2,484 4,604

40–44 1,719 2,023 3,742 2,227 2,570 4,798

45–49 1,501 1,725 3,226 1,945 2,192 4,136

50–54 1,410 1,517 2,927 1,827 1,927 3,754

55–59 1,060 1,132 2,192 1,373 1,438 2,812

60–64 809 803 1,612 1,048 1,020 2,068

65–69 518 543 1,061 671 690 1,361

70–74 340 371 711 441 471 912

75–79 154 233 387 200 296 496

80+ 129 204 333 167 259 426

All ages 30,922 31,798 62,720 40,064 40,400 80,464

APPENDIX 4: 2011 CENSUS COUNT OF INDIGENOUS POPULATION BY AGE GROUPS AND SEX, BASED ON PLACE OF USUAL RESIDENCE AND ESTIMATED RESIDENT POPULATION AT 30 JUNE 2011 BY REMOTENESS AREAS (RA), NSW

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NSW Aboriginal Population and Households Projections, 2011–2031 Page 111

Remoteness areas2011 Census Place of Usual

ResidenceEstimated Resident Population

30 June 2011

RA Age groups Males Females Persons Males Females Persons

Outer Regional 0–4 1,625 1,591 3,216 2,105 2,021 4,127

5–9 1,510 1,474 2,984 1,956 1,873 3,829

10–14 1,628 1,527 3,155 2,109 1,940 4,049

15–19 1,437 1,286 2,723 1,862 1,634 3,496

20–24 910 880 1,790 1,179 1,118 2,297

25–29 759 768 1,527 983 976 1,959

30–34 570 693 1,263 739 880 1,619

35–39 661 771 1,432 856 980 1,836

40–44 659 763 1,422 854 969 1,823

45–49 618 751 1,369 801 954 1,755

50–54 583 644 1,227 755 818 1,574

55–59 460 473 933 596 601 1,197

60–64 369 378 747 478 480 958

65–69 261 261 522 338 332 670

70–74 152 171 323 197 217 414

75–79 110 103 213 143 131 273

80+ 44 86 130 57 109 166

All ages 12,356 12,620 24,976 16,009 16,034 32,043

Remote Areas 0–4 284 334 618 368 424 792

5–9 311 322 633 403 409 812

10–14 297 290 587 385 368 753

15–19 258 262 520 334 333 667

20–24 187 199 386 242 253 495

25–29 136 167 303 176 212 388

30–34 137 146 283 178 185 363

35–39 135 184 319 175 234 409

40–44 144 180 324 187 229 415

45–49 155 162 317 201 206 407

50–54 126 135 261 163 172 335

55–59 121 98 219 157 125 281

60–64 98 79 177 127 100 227

65–69 67 59 126 87 75 162

70–74 35 57 92 45 72 118

75–79 20 23 43 26 29 55

80+ 23 21 44 30 27 56

All ages 2,534 2,718 5,252 3,283 3,453 6,736

APPENDIX 4: 2011 CENSUS COUNT OF INDIGENOUS POPULATION BY AGE GROUPS AND SEX, BASED ON PLACE OF USUAL RESIDENCE AND ESTIMATED RESIDENT POPULATION AT 30 JUNE 2011 BY REMOTENESS AREAS (RA), NSW (con’t)

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NSW Aboriginal Population and Households Projections, 2011–2031 • Page 112

Remoteness areas2011 Census Place of Usual

ResidenceEstimated Resident Population

30 June 2011

RA Age groups Males Females Persons Males Females Persons

Very Remote 0–4 143 151 294 185 192 377

5–9 138 169 307 179 215 394

10–14 131 126 257 170 160 330

15–19 126 135 261 163 172 335

20–24 104 112 216 135 142 277

25–29 84 80 164 109 102 210

30–34 65 76 141 84 97 181

35–39 97 91 188 126 116 241

40–44 87 107 194 113 136 249

45–49 88 87 175 114 111 225

50–54 71 78 149 92 99 191

55–59 63 59 122 82 75 157

60–64 41 57 98 53 72 126

65–69 31 30 61 40 38 78

70–74 13 21 34 17 27 44

75–79 7 15 22 9 19 28

80+ 7 18 25 9 23 32

All ages 1,296 1,412 2,708 1,679 1,794 3,473

All RAs 0–4 10,216 9,940 20,156 13,236 12,629 25,865

5–9 9,881 9,260 19,141 12,802 11,765 24,567

10–14 10,005 9,524 19,529 12,963 12,101 25,064

15–19 9,353 8,876 18,229 12,118 11,277 23,395

20–24 6,662 6,507 13,169 8,632 8,267 16,899

25–29 5,072 5,419 10,491 6,572 6,885 13,457

30–34 4,192 4,596 8,788 5,431 5,839 11,271

35–39 4,431 5,141 9,572 5,741 6,532 12,273

40–44 4,457 5,279 9,736 5,775 6,707 12,482

45–49 3,997 4,725 8,722 5,179 6,003 11,182

50–54 3,636 3,996 7,632 4,711 5,077 9,788

55–59 2,839 3,046 5,885 3,678 3,870 7,548

60–64 2,154 2,273 4,427 2,791 2,888 5,679

65–69 1,419 1,501 2,920 1,839 1,907 3,746

70–74 870 1,027 1,897 1,127 1,305 2,432

75–79 517 638 1,155 670 811 1,480

80+ 347 619 966 450 786 1,236

All ages 80,048 82,367 162,415 103,714 104,650 208,364

APPENDIX 4: 2011 CENSUS COUNT OF INDIGENOUS POPULATION BY AGE GROUPS AND SEX, BASED ON PLACE OF USUAL RESIDENCE AND ESTIMATED RESIDENT POPULATION AT 30 JUNE 2011 BY REMOTENESS AREAS (RA), NSW (con’t)

NSW Aboriginal Population and Households Projections, 2011–2031 Page 113

FERTILITY

Total fertility rate (TFR) is the total number of children a woman will give birth to during her entire reproductive life given that the age-specific fertility rates remain constant.

MORTPAK for Windows 2003 procedure FERTPF is used to derive fertility estimates using information on children ever born (CEB) by age of mother. The essential methodology was developed by G. Mortara (1949). The variation included here was proposed by Arriaga (1983) and has the advantage of providing estimates of fertility change over time. In the same 1983 article, Arriaga presented an extension of the P/F technique originally developed by Brass (Brass and others, 1968). The Arriaga extension, presented in FERTPF, allows the demographer to estimate fertility at two points in time under conditions of fertility change. CEB data and the pattern of age-specific fertility is necessary from two enumerations when fertility has not been constant.

SEX RATIO

The total number of males divided by the total number of females and expressed in 100. A sex ratio over 100 is referred to as a high-sex ratio while a sex ratio below 100 is referred to low-sex ratio.

TRENDS

As numbers get smaller, confidence in their accuracy is reduced. Although no formal sampling has been carried out, it becomes more obvious that there is increased potential for error. Statistical methods can be used to model trend data in various ways and incorporate appropriate assumptions about the nature of the trend in the past, present and future. Projecting rates into the future gives an estimate of future occurrence rates.

In this project, we have used average annual percent change to calculate a projected rate/relativity. This is accomplished through linear extrapolation by iteratively increasing or decreasing the number or rate according to the average annual percent change of the observed.

PROJECTIONS

Procedure PROJUCT of the United Nations’ MORTPAK version 4.0 software has been used to produce projection outputs. The procedure projects annually a population by age and sex for up to 100 years, based on the initial population (by five-year age groups and sex) and an assumption of future changes in fertility, mortality and migration. The methodology used is cohort-component (see Shryock and Siegel, 1973). The steps are (1) estimation of projected levels and age patterns of mortality, fertility and migration for each single-year projection period; (2) estimation of the male and female populations by single years of age from the data in five-year age groups given as input; (3) sequential application of these annual age-specific mortality and fertility rates and migration to the population to provide annual projected populations by age and sex and demographic indicators.

4. EXPLANATORY NOTES

NSW Aboriginal Population and Households Projections, 2011–2031 • Page 114

Australian Bureau of Statistics 2013, Local Government Area 2011 to Remoteness Area 2011, cat. no. 1270.0.55.006.C123, ABS, Canberra.

Australian Bureau of Statistics 2012, Information Paper, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Demographic Statistics Work Program and Release Plans, cat. no. 3238.0.55.003), ABS, Canberra.

Australian Bureau of Statistics 2012, Australian Demographic Statistics, cat. no. 3101.0, ABS, Canberra.

Australian Bureau of Statistics 2011, Information paper, Rebasing Population Estimates, Australia, cat. no. 3101.0.55.001, ABS, Canberra.

Australian Bureau of Statistics 2011, cat. no. 2901.0 – Census Dictionary, ABS, Canberra.

Australian Bureau of Statistics, 2009, Experimental Life Tables for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Australians, 2005-2007 cat. no. 3302.0.

Australian Bureau of Statistics 2012, Births Australia, cat. no. 33010.

Australian Bureau of Statistics 2008, Discussion Paper, Assessment of Methods, for Developing Life Tables, for Aboriginal and Torres, Strait Islander Australians, cat. no. 3302.0.55.002.

Australian Bureau of Statistics 2008, Experimental Estimates of Resident Australian Indigenous Population, 2006 cat. no. 32380.55.001, ABS, Canberra.

Australian Bureau of Statistics 2002, Census of Population and Housing: Selected Social and Housing Characteristics, Australia, 2001, cat. no. 2015.0, ABS, Canberra.

Australian Bureau of Statistics and Australian Institute of Health & Welfare, 2005, The Health and Welfare of Australia’s Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Peoples, ABS, cat. No. IHW 14, Canberra.

Aboriginal Housing Office 2008, Indicative NSW Indigenous Population Projections 2006 to 2021, NSW Aboriginal Housing Office.

Australian Institute of Health & Welfare and Australian Bureau of Statistics, 2006 Recent Developments in the collection of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Health and Welfare Statistics, 2005, cat. no. IHW 15, AIHW, Canberra.

Australian Bureau of Statistics 1998, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander People, NSW 1996, cat. no. 2034.1. 1996, ABS, Canberra.

Arriaga, EE 1983, Estimating Fertility from Data on Children Ever Born by Age of Mother, International Research Document No. 11 U.S. Bureau of the Census, Washington D C.

McDonald, P & Kippen, R 1998, Household Trends and Projections: Victoria, 1986-2011, Victorian Department of Infrastructure, Melbourne.

Queensland Health 2012, Discussion Paper, Experimental Life Tables by Remoteness, Queensland, 2002-04 and 2005-07, Indigenous Information Strategy Team, Health Statistics Centre, Queensland Health, Queensland.

5. REFERENCES

Artwork created by Lorraine Brown and Narelle Thomas from the Coomaditchie United Aboriginal CorporationPrinted July 2014