From brainstorming to concrete policy: a foresight analysis applied

to marine renewable energy in France

1. The frame of the study 2. The study : Method, scenarios, results 3. The key stakeholders and steps 4. Which lessons for foresight analysis? Denis LACROIX Directorate of scientific policy / Foresight analysis at Ifremer Presented to European Foresight Platform, Vienna workshop, 27-28 Sept. 2012

Moulin à marée de Birlot -île de Bréhat (Côtes d ’Armor)

1. THE FRAME OF THE STUDY

1. Increasing importance of the sea In modern issues: Climate, coastal areas, biodiversity…

2. Objectives of the EU in 2020 : Minus 20% green house effect gas Minus 20% in consumption of fossil énergies 20% of energy mix from renewable energies

3. Request of decision-makers for tools for long term

vision 4. Initiative of Ifremer President in 2007 : a collective study

Moulin à marée de Birlot -île de Bréhat (Côtes d ’Armor)

1. THE FRAME OF THE STUDY Horizon : 2030 Field : France */ Europe / World Technologies : marine Method : scenarios * Including overseas territories Questions : Which technologies for renewable marine energies? Which social and economic conditions for their development and competitiveness? Which impacts of the technologies on marine environment? Which strategic partnerships to establish or to strenghten?

Steering committee: • 32 members (4 meeting /yr) (Ifremer, ministries, agencies, 6 companies, 6 organisations, Futuribles) Decides for the key parameters of the study, incl. scenarios

•Working group • 22 members (10 meetings in 1 year) • Prepares hypothesis, scenarios, recommendations

2. THE STUDY : METHODS

2. THE STUDY : THE SCENARIOS UP TO 2030

Scenario Criteria

CRISIS COOPE -RATION

RUN for YOURSELF

LOCAL AUTONOMY

Main factor MARKET Internat’l WILL

Nat’l energy SECURITY

Local devpt + risks

Internat’l Environ.t

ENERGY EMERGENCY

KYOTO 2 & extent

PROTECTIO-NISM

Tensions & Innovation

Best technos

WIND, TIDE

ALL TECHNOS

Independant devpt

All notably Wind,

Biomass, Thermic

R&D TECHNO improvement

All technos; Offshore &

deep waters

Mature technos

Fragmented: all technos

+ new grids

2. THE STUDY : RESULTS

In Tons Oil Equivalent : from 0,7 to 6,5 Million /yr In production : from 8 to 46 TWh/an) Assesment of technologies with equivalent scenarios

Scenarios Technos

Crisis Coope -ration

Run for yourself

Local devpt

TOTAL

STREAM 1,5 3 1 1 6,5

TIDE 3 2 1 0 6

WAVE 1,5 3 1 1,5 7

BIOMASS 3 3 1 2 9

WIND 3 3 1 2 9

THERMAL 2 3 1 3 9

OSMOTIC 0 1 0 1 2

2. A CONCRETE PROPOSAL FOR TODAY FOR FRANCE

WIND (priority) : 16 parks x 50 units (5 MW) : 4000 Mw Thermal : 10 power plants (20 Mw) + 12 plants for cold (20 Mw) Stream : 5 parks x 80 turbines (1 Mw) : 400 Mw Tide : One « lagoon » type plant: 500 Mw Wave : 20 parks x 10 units (1 Mw) : 200 Mw Biomass : one plant : 0,05 Million TEO/Yr TOTAL Political target : 20 Million of Tons Equivalent Oil in 2020 Part of RME : 7,7% inclunding 5,5% from Wind energy

2. THREE PUBLICATIONS

2009 Synthesis For decision-makers (36 p.) 1000 s.

2010 Book in French & in English (360 p.) 600 s.

2009 Synthesis For decision-makers (36 p.) 1000 s.

2008 Paper in a Journal of foresight Futuribles (18 p.) 4000 s.

3. THE KEY STEPS

Interest but no support Active support

Year ACTOR

2005 - 2007 2008 - 2009 2010 - 2011

Internat’l Environt

Fossil energies not sustainable + IPCC

RME reports

Nb of works. EU : 20% of RME in 2020

Industry Studies & tests

Research Studies & tests

Regional Bodies

Studies on potential

Think tanks State National global

outlook on Envt

Key action

3. THE KEY STEPS

Interest but no support Active support

ACTOR 2005 - 2007 2008 - 2009 2010 - 2011

Internat’l Environt

World Conference of Copenhagen

RME reports

ICOE meeting in Brest

Industry Prototypes; Investments

Research Foresight study of Ifremer

Regional Bodies

Financing of projects

Think tanks

Think tank Ipanema: Resear.+Ind+Reg+State

State Call for tests; speech of Pdt on sea politics

Key action

3. THE KEY STEPS

Interest but no support Active support

ACTOR 2005 - 2007 2008 - 2009 2010 - 2011

Internat’l Environt

New politics in RME: USA, China…

RME reports

Nb of programmes on the medium term

Industry Answers to calls; nb of consortia

Research Multi-partners studies

Regional Bodies

Commitment in R&D and in answers

Think Tanks Nb of Priv/Publ Partnerships

State First call for 5 wind parks for 3000 Mw

Key action

3. THE KEY STAKEHOLDERS AND STEPS

2011 : CALL of the French government For 5 sites along the Atlantic coast. 2012 : Selection of 4 groups Total power : 2000 Mw Production : 6800 Mwh Cost : + 160 €/Mwh (to be paid by consumers) (Base: 66 €) Jobs : 6000 (on 10 years)

3. THE KEY STAKEHOLDERS AND STEPS: Position of France in Europe (RME)

4. WHICH LESSONS FOR FORESIGHT ANALYSIS?

ACTOR 2005 - 2007 2008 - 2009 2010 - 2011

Internat’l Environt RME reports

Nb of works

Industry STUDIES & tests

Research STUDIES & tests

FORESIGHT study

Regional Bodies

FINANCING of projects

Think tanks THINK TANK Ipanema:

State Pdt speech on SEA POLITICS

FIRST CALL

Financing power

Know ledge

* In relation with social acceptability

4. WHICH LESSONS? CONCLUSION

WILL (Politics) *

Financing power

Synergizers (Think tank, Cluster…) Know

ledge

Foresight analysis capacity: collective, relevant, patient, proactive

* In relation with social acceptability

4. WHICH LESSONS? CONCLUSION

WILL (Politics) *

Financing power

Synergizers (Think tank, Cluster…)

Know ledge

WILL (Politics)

Financing power

Know ledge

Foresight analysis capacity: collective, relevant, patient, proactive

* In relation with social acceptability

4. WHICH LESSONS? CONCLUSION

WILL (Politics) * *

A NEW SHAPE

Financing power

Know ledge

WILL (Politics)

Projects, Applications

Synergizers (Think tank, Cluster…)

Financing power

Know ledge

Foresight analysis capacity: collective, relevant, patient, proactive

* In relation with social acceptability

4. WHICH LESSONS? CONCLUSION

WILL (Politics) * *

Time

Thanks to

Ademe, CEA, DCNS, Ecole centrale de Nantes, Ecrin, EDF, Groupe Futuribles, LEGI, Météo France, MEEDDAT, MESR, Saipem, SG Mer, Technip, Total, Veolia Michel Paillard (head of the project), Véronique Lamblin (In charge of the methodology in the foresight analysis). O. Barbaroux*, JP Cadoret*, J Carbonne (Cefrem), Deme Be, Dong Energy Dk, ECN, EDF, Geo, D. Lacroix*, Pelamis wave power, Saipem, for pictures and figures * lfremer