Weekly Strategic(oversold ) di level terendah, tercermin dari siklus IHSG yang saat ini belum berada...
Transcript of Weekly Strategic(oversold ) di level terendah, tercermin dari siklus IHSG yang saat ini belum berada...
Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report 1
Senin, 02 Desember 2019
Weekly Strategic
Peluang Menguat vs Koreksi 5,833.46
1) Kementerian Keuangan (Kemenkeu) menyatakan potensi shortfall penerimaan pajak sampai
dengan akhir tahun 2019 berada di rentang Rp. 140 triliun – Rp. 200 triliun. Tercatatkan sampai
dengan akhir Oktober penerimaan pajak baru sebesar Rp. 1,018.47 triliun (65.56% dari target Rp.
1,577.56 triliun). Terdapat tiga hal yang mempengaruhi melebarnya shortfall pajak, diantaranya: a)
Adanya restitusi pajak atau pengembalian pajak yang besar. b) Melambatnya pertumbuhan ekonomi
global, membuat turunnya aktivitas ekspor. c) Harga komoditas yang belum menunjukkan perbaikan
secara signifikan. 2) Menurut Kemenkeu, kunci utama untuk memacu pertumbuhan ekonomi
Indomesia di level 7% dari sisi konsumsi dan investasi. Saat ini dari sisi konsumsi domestik dinilai
sangat kuat dimana mampu terus tumbuh di atas level 5%, namun dari sisi investasi pertumbuhannya
cenderung menurun seiring dengan kondisi pelemahan harga komoditas global. Agar pertumbuhan
investasi tumbuh double digit di level 12% – 13%, pemerintah berkonsentrasi melakukan perbaikan
iklim investasi secara besar besaran dengan cara: a) Terus melanjutkan pembangunan infrastruktur
dan konektivitas. b) Terus melakukan perbaikan tata birokrasi dan regulasi untuk memberikan
konsistensi pada investor terkait kebijakan, baik kebijakan antar kementerian maupun kebijakan
antara pemerintah pusat dan daerah. Adapun salah satu bentuk komitmen perbaikan iklim kebijakan
investasi adalah rencana penerbitan Omnibus Law Cipta Lapangan Kerja, UMKM, dan Perpajakan.
Adapun di tahun 2019, Kemenkeu memproyeksikan pertumbuhan ekonomi hanya tumbuh dikisaran
5.05% seiring dengan terus menurunnya ekspektasi pertumbuhan ekonomi global di level 3%
(terendah sejak krisis finansial global) dan terus menurunnya juga volume perdagangan dunia yang
hanya tumbuh sebesar 1.1% (3.6% di 2018 dan 5.5% di 2017). Kemenkeu menyatakan beberapa
pengaruh dari pelemahan ekonomi global terhadap ekonomi Indonesia saat ini, diantaranya: a)
Pelemahan ekonomi global mengakibatkan tren penurunan suku bunga global dan tingginya
ketidakpastian pada pasar finansial negara maju. Sehingga membuat derasnya aliran modal asing ke
emerging market diantaranya Indonesia, khususnya pada pasar Surat Berharga Negara (SBN), pasar
saham, dan pasar Surat Berharga Bank Indonesia (SBI). b) Belum cukupnya kepercayaan investor
pada aspek makroekonomi Indonesia yang stabil serta kurangnya kepercayaan investor pada aspek
lainnya seperti infrastruktur, ketenagakerjaan, regulasi dan perizinan membuat pertumbuhan investasi
asing langsung (FDI) masih tersendat (investor lebih memilih pasar finansial yang sangat temporer). c)
Menurunnya volume perdagangan dunia berimbas pada kinerja perdagangan barang dan jasa di
dalam negeri. Ekspor dan impor menjadi tertekan sepanjang tahun ini.
Secara keseluruhan dalam sepekan terakhir IHSG kembali melemah sebesar 1.45% atau 88.41 point,
ditutup di level 6,011.83. Akumulasi minat jual asing dalam sepekan terakhir tercatatkan mewarnai
pergerakan IHSG sebesar Rp.2.67 triliun diantaranya pada saham EXCL, DOID, BTPS, CTRA, BRPT,
ICBP, ADRO, JPFA, ISAT, ERAA. Dan dalam dua pekan sampai dengan empat pekan terakhir juga
tercatatkan akumulasi minat jual asing masing masing sebesar Rp.3.24 triliun, Rp.4.15 triliun, dan
Rp.6.71 triliun. Dalam sepekan terakhir nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dolar AS tercatatkan sideway dari
Rp.14.100 menjadi Rp.14.102. Koreksi tajam dalam sepekan terakhir belum membuat IHSG jenuh jual
(oversold) di level terendah, tercermin dari siklus IHSG yang saat ini belum berada di bawah -1
standard deviasi. Adanya kekuatan beli di akhir pekan perdagangan kemarin membuat adanya
peluang penguatan sesaat di pekan ini. Namun selama IHSG masih berada di bawah level 6,098.95,
masih berpeluang untuk menguji target koreksi selanjutnya di level 5,917.22 – 5,884.16 – 5,833.46.
Beberapa saham di LQ45 yang saat ini secara histori mendekati PE ratio terendah diantaranya ADRO,
AKRA, ASII, BBNI, BBTN, BMRI, BSDE, ERAA, GGRM, HMSP, INDF, ITMG, JPFA, JSMR, LPPF,
MEDC, MNCN, PGAS, PTBA, PTPP, PWON, SCMA, SRIL, UNTR, WIKA, dan WSKT. Berita ekonomi
luar negeri di pekan ini US ISM Manufacturing PMI & ISM non Manufacturing PMI November, US
balance of trade October, US non Farm Payrolls November, dan US Michigan Consumer Sentiment
Prei December. Sedangkan berita ekonomi domestik di pekan ini Markit manufacturing PMI
November, inflasi November, jumlah wisatawan asing Oktober, kepercayaan konsumen November,
dan cadangan devisa November.
Widhi Indratmo Nugroho Analyst
+62 21 5785 1818 (Ext.2051)
Close
Weekly Return ▼
Yield to Date ▼
PE (X)
Volume (miliar) ▲
Value (Rp. triliun) ▲
BI 7-Day RR
IDR/USD Rp.
COMPOSITE LAST
TOTAL TRANSACTION
-1.45%
ECONOMIC INDICATORS
14,102
5.00%
40.10
53.15
14.75
-2.95%
6,011.83
Sumber: Lotus Sekuritas
JCI vs Foreign Net Buy (Sell) YTD
5,700
6,200
6,700
7,200
7,700
2-Jan-19 25-Jun-19 28-Nov-19
(14,000)
1,000
16,000
31,000
46,000
Composite (LHS) Net Buy YTD in Rp.bn (RHS)
Sumber: Lotus Sekuritas
SECTOR
Agriculture ▼ -3.24% ▲ 1.83%
Basic Industry ▲ 0.10% ▼ -2.75%
Consumer Goods ▼ -1.86% ▼ -1.08%
Finance ▼ -0.32% ▲ 1.08%
Infrastructure ▼ -2.54% ▼ -0.83%
Manufacture ▼ -1.16% ▼ -1.45%
Mining ▼ -5.39% ▼ -0.07%
Misc. Industry ▼ -1.45% ▲ 0.09%
Property ▼ -2.10% ▼ -2.61%
Trade & Service ▼ -2.45% ▼ -1.02%
WEEKLY RETURN
29-Nov-19 22-Nov-19
Sumber: Lotus Sekuritas
SECTOR
Agriculture ▼ -1.02% ▲ 2.77%
Basic Industry ▼ -2.41% ▼ -6.57%
Consumer Goods ▼ -16.01% ▲ 0.65%
Finance ▲ 2.35% ▲ 55.46%
Infrastructure ▼ -9.39% ▲ 7.71%
Manufacture ▼ -27.16% ▼ -2.03%
Mining ▼ -13.04% ▼ -3.76%
Misc. Industry ▼ -4.31% ▲ 4.63%
Property ▼ -0.15% ▼ -3.19%
Trade & Service ▼ -24.16% ▲ 13.24%
29-Nov-19 22-Nov-19
WEEKLY CAPITAL FLOW
Sumber: Lotus Sekuritas
2
Weekly Strategic Senin, 02 Desember 2019
IDR Volatility
2.48%
5. 1%
0.91%
1.15%1.48%1.72%1.39%1.64%1.16%1.05%1.86%1.50%
Ave 2015, 2.1%
Ave 2016, 1.9%
Ave 2017, 0.9%
Ave 2018, 1.6%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Ave 2015
Ave 2016 Ave 2017 Ave 2018 Note: Penghitungan berdasarkan nilai tengah rupiah
Sumber: Lotus Sekuritas
Yield to Date – Sector
Y ield t o D at e 2 0 19
Agr icul tur e
-12.73%Basic Industr y
8.72%Consumer Good
-21.90%Finance
8.34%Inf r astr uctur e
3.65%Manuf actur e
-12.98%Mining
-21.31%Misc.Industr y
-16.65%Propert y &
Const ruct ion,
8.17%Trade & Service
-3.11%
-30% -20% -10% 0% 10%
Y ield t o D at e 2 0 18
Agr icul tur e
-3.21%Basic Industr y
24.01%Consumer Good
-10.21%Finance
3.05%Inf r astr uctur e
-10.09%Manuf actur e
-1.34%Mining
11.45%Misc.Industr y
0.96%Pr oper ty &
Constr uction
-9.64%Tr ade & Ser vice
-14.94%
-30% -15% 0% 15% 30%
Sumber: Lotus Sekuritas
Sector Performance of the JCI
Perf ormance 2 0 19
Agr icul tur e
Basic Industr y
Consumer Good
Finance
Inf r astr uctur e
Manuf actur e
Mining
Misc.Industr y
Pr oper ty &
Constr uction
Tr ade & Ser vice
-20 -10 0 10 20
Perf ormance 2 0 18
Agr icul tur e
Basic Industr y
Consumer Good
Finance
Inf r astr uctur e
Manuf actur e
Mining
Misc.Industr y
Pr oper ty &
Constr uction
Tr ade & Ser vice
-34 -17 0 17 34
Note: Cumulative Return Rebase to JCI = 0
Sumber: Lotus Sekuritas
Volatilitas nilai tukar rupiah terus menurun dan terjaga di bawah 2% (rata rata volatilitas 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018: 2.1%, 1.9%, 0.9%, 1.6%) seiring dengan kebijakan pre-emptive & ahead the curve untuk mendukung kestabilan nilai tukar rupiah dan pertumbuhan ekonomi. Volatilitas IDR dalam sepekan terakhir sebesar 0.16% dan selama bulan November sebesar 0.91%.
Selama 2018, sector trade & service (-14.94% ytd) menjadi driver terbesar pelemahan IHSG dan berkinerja terburuk. Sedangkan sector basic industry menjadi penopang terbesar pelemahan IHSG (+24.01% ytd). Sector manufacture walaupun melemah (-1.34% ytd) di 2018, namun koreksinya lebih kecil dibanding koreksi IHSG (-2.54% ytd) sehingga kinerja sector manufactur masih positif di tahun tersebut. Dalam sepekan terakhir sebagian besar sektor melemah. Koreksi terbesar terjadi pada sektor mining (-5.39%), dan secara keseluruhan melemah (-21.31% ytd), dan saat ini kinerjanya terburuk kedua. Sedangkan penguatan terbesar terjadi pada sektor basic industry (+0.10%), dan secara keseluruhan menguat (+8.72% ytd), dan saat ini berkinerja terbaik kedua.
Sentimen pernyataan the Fed yang pertama kali akan menaikan tingkat bunganya di akhir 2015 membuat volatilitas IDR Oktober 2015 mencapai 5.1%
3
Weekly Strategic Senin, 02 Desember 2019
Price Earning Ratio IHSG
7.38x
10.38x
13.38x
16.38x
19.38x
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
Dec-03 Jan-06 Dec-07 Jan-10 Dec-11 Dec-13 Dec-15 Dec-17 Dec-19
Sumber: Lotus Sekuritas Siklus Pergerakan Harian IHSG
J C ICy c le
Average
+1 STDEV
-1 STDEV
-
875
1,750
2,625
3,500
4,375
5,250
6,125
7,000
Jan-03 Sep-04 May-06 Feb-08 Oct -09 Jun-11 Feb-13 Nov-14 Jul-16 Mar-18 Dec-19
0.43
0.56
0.69
0.82
0.95
1.08
1.21
1.34
1.47
1.60
1.73
Sumber: Lotus Sekuritas
Siklus Pergerakan Harian Beberapa Saham LQ45 & Lainnya
Stock Cycle -1 STDEV Average +1 STDEV Area TP Upside Stock Cycle -1 STDEV Average +1 STDEV Area TP Upside
ADRO 0.95 0.83 1.04 1.25 Trading 1,576 28.1% INTP 0.95 0.91 1.12 1.32 Trading 19,321 -0.41%
AKRA 0.79 0.92 1.13 1.34 BoW 4,929 45.0% ITMG 0.96 0.91 1.12 1.32 Trading 18,958 85.41%
ANTM 0.82 0.77 0.98 1.19 Trading 1,209 61.2% JPFA 0.97 0.88 1.19 1.51 Trading 1,718 3.2%
ASII 0.92 0.90 1.12 1.34 Trading 8,025 23.5% JSMR 0.89 0.96 1.14 1.31 BoW 6,431 30.2%
BBCA 1.07 1.00 1.10 1.21 Trading 30,662 -2.3% KLBF 1.00 1.00 1.20 1.39 BoW 1,597 4.75%
BBNI 0.90 0.90 1.14 1.38 BoW 10,017 33.6% LPPF 0.93 0.02 1.54 3.07 Trading 4,783 35.50%
BBRI 0.98 0.98 1.11 1.24 Trading 4,670 14.2% MEDC 0.90 0.82 1.02 1.22 Trading 1,043 46.95%
BBTN 0.93 -4.86 1.72 8.30 Trading 2,698 26.7% MNCN 1.10 0.86 1.18 1.50 Trading 1,565 25.2%
BMRI 0.95 0.96 1.06 1.16 BoW 8,971 28.6% PGAS 0.90 0.92 1.08 1.23 BoW 2,478 29.1%
BRPT 1.67 0.75 0.86 0.97 SoS 635 -53.31% PTBA 0.80 0.78 0.94 1.11 Trading 3,509 45.0%
BSDE 0.90 0.94 1.08 1.22 BoW 1,692 35.37% PTPP 0.69 0.85 1.13 1.41 BoW 2,647 96.1%
BTPS 1.32 -8.73 3.63 15.98 Trading 0 -100.0% PWON 0.85 0.87 1.12 1.37 BoW 765 35.5%
CPIN 1.16 0.82 1.28 1.73 Trading 4,594 -31.69% SCMA 0.81 0.91 1.25 1.60 BoW 1,889 57.4%
CTRA 0.93 0.89 1.15 1.40 Trading 1,349 34.2% SMGR 0.92 0.88 0.98 1.09 Trading 13,824 20.7%
ERAA 0.78 -4.86 1.68 8.23 Trading 1,975 47.35% SRIL 0.76 0.74 0.83 0.92 Trading 420 70.7%
EXCL 1.10 0.83 1.10 1.37 Trading 3,861 15.6% TKIM 0.87 0.73 1.01 1.29 Trading 0 -100.0%
GGRM 0.70 0.89 1.18 1.48 BoW 92,451 83.5% TLKM 0.96 1.05 1.15 0.95 BoW 4,713 19.9%
HMSP 0.64 0.97 1.15 1.32 BoW 3,656 88.9% TPIA 1.38 0.83 1.03 1.24 SoS 4,568 -51.1%
ICBP 1.06 0.96 1.10 1.23 Trading 12,041 6.3% UNTR 0.86 0.84 1.08 1.33 Trading 31,008 48.2%
INCO 0.91 0.80 1.02 1.24 Trading 3,814 27.1% UNVR 0.91 0.98 1.10 1.23 BoW 45,490 8.8%
INDF 1.10 0.86 1.11 1.37 Trading 8,278 4.1% WIKA 0.82 0.88 0.95 0.80 BoW 2,832 63.2%
INDY 0.70 0.95 1.18 0.71 BoW 2,125 95.9% WSKT 0.68 0.87 1.12 1.37 BoW 2,305 88.1%
INKP 0.85 0.76 0.99 1.23 Trading 7,175 5.51%
Note: 1. TP (Target Price) Konsensus Bloomberg
2. Cycle: Posisi harga close saham di minggu terakhir
3. Posisi Cycle yang berada dibawah (-1) standard deviation, diperkirakan mempunyai ruang koreksi yang mulai terbatas
Sumber: Lotus Sekuritas
Closing 29 November 2019
Saat ini IHSG berada pada PE ratio 14.75x.
Bottom Fishing Buy on Weakness
Trading Area
Sell on Strength
Closing 29 November 2019
Krisis Global 2008
Saat ini siklus IHSG di antara
level -1 standard deviasi &
average.
4
Weekly Strategic Senin, 02 Desember 2019
Stock Pick
ADRO
AKRA
ANTM
BBCA
BBNI
BBRI
BBTN BMRI
CTRA
ERAA
GGRM
ICBP
INCO
INDF
INTP JPFA
JSMR
KLBF
LPPF
MNCN
PGAS
PTBA
PTPP
PWON
SCMA
SRIL
UNTR
UNVR
WSKT
SMGR ASII
HMSP
EXCL
CPIN
INDY
TLKM
WIKA
BSDE
INKP
ITMG
MEDC
-40%
10%
60%
110%
0.4 1.0 1.6
Sumber: Lotus Sekuritas
Saham Underprice dan mendekati PE ratio terendah
ADRO PE Band AKRA PE Band
4.27x
7.78x
11.29x
14.8x18.31x
300
1,100
1,900
2,700
3,500
Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19
11.48x
17.45x
23.42x
29.39x
35.37x
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19
Sumber: Lotus Sekuritas Sumber: Lotus Sekuritas
ASII PE Band BBNI PE Band
9.42x
13.01x
16.59x20.18x23.77x
4,000
5,750
7,500
9,250
11,000
Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19
6x
7.9x
9.8x11.7x
13.6x
2,000
4,500
7,000
9,500
12,000
Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19
Sumber: Lotus Sekuritas Sumber: Lotus Sekuritas
Fairly Price Line
Overprice Area
(Negative Alpha)
Underprice Area
(Positive Alpha)
Beberapa saham yang berada di atas fairly price line (security market line) mencerminkan kondisi underprice. Investor dapat melakukan posisi beli maupun menambah proporsi (overweight) pada saham ini. Sedangkan beberapa saham yang berada di bawah fairly price line mencerminkan kondisi overprice. Investor dapat melakukan posisi jual atau mengurangi proporsi (underweight) pada saham ini. investasi pada aset berisiko seperti saham seharusnya memberi return lebih besar dari investasi pada aset bebas risiko. Investor harus mendapat kompensasi dari investasi di aset berisiko (risk premium). Makin besar kompensasi (risk premium) yang diterima investor dicerminkan oleh gradient (m) garis fairly price line yang bernilai positif menjauhi nol (m>0).
Closing 29 November 2019
Sensitivity to Market
Expected Return
Risk Free
5
Weekly Strategic Senin, 02 Desember 2019
BBTN PE Band BMRI PE Band
5.46x
7.35x
9.24x
11.13x
13.01x
500
1,500
2,500
3,500
4,500
Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19
8.65x
11.45x
14.24x
17.03x19.83x
2,000
4,500
7,000
9,500
12,000
Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19
Sumber: Lotus Sekuritas Sumber: Lotus Sekuritas
BSDE PE Band ERAA PE Band
6.34x
11.3x
16.25x
21.21x
26.16x
500
1,200
1,900
2,600
3,300
Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19
4.02x
8.73x
14.23x
19.73x
25.23x
50
1,150
2,250
3,350
4,450
Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19
Sumber: Lotus Sekuritas Sumber: Lotus Sekuritas
GGRM PE Band HMSP PE Band
8.67x
13.65x
18.63x
23.61x28.59x
25,000
51,000
77,000
103,000
129,000
Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19
12.53x
21.82x
31.11x
40.40x
49.69x
1,000
2,500
4,000
5,500
7,000
Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19
Sumber: Lotus Sekuritas Sumber: Lotus Sekuritas
INDF PE Band ITMG PE Band
12.24x
17.2x
22.16x
27.12x32.08x
2,000
5,000
8,000
11,000
14,000
Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19
2.78x
5.26x
7.75x
10.24x
12.72x
2,000
14,000
26,000
38,000
50,000
Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19
Sumber: Lotus Sekuritas Sumber: Lotus Sekuritas
6
Weekly Strategic Senin, 02 Desember 2019
JPFA PE Band JSMR PE Band
5.75x
13.22x
20.69x
28.17x35.64x
100
1,100
2,100
3,100
4,100
Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19
20.15x
25.9x
31.65x
37.4x
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19
Sumber: Lotus Sekuritas Sumber: Lotus Sekuritas
LPPF PE Band MEDC PE Band
3.06x
11.92x
20.78x
29.64x38.49x
200
7,200
14,200
21,200
28,200
Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19
1.39x
15.02x
28.66x42.29x55.92x
50
600
1,150
1,700
2,250
Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19
Sumber: Lotus Sekuritas Sumber: Lotus Sekuritas
MNCN PE Band PGAS PE Band
7.46x
13.12x
18.77x
24.42x
30.08x
200
1,200
2,200
3,200
4,200
Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19
8.73x
14.56x
20.39x
26.22x
32.04x
500
3,000
5,500
8,000
10,500
Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19
Sumber: Lotus Sekuritas Sumber: Lotus Sekuritas
PTBA PE Band PTPP PE Band
3.17x
6.51x
9.85x13.2x16.54x
250
1,750
3,250
4,750
6,250
Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19
3.71x
11.82x
19.92x28.02x36.12x
200
1,500
2,800
4,100
5,400
Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19
Sumber: Lotus Sekuritas Sumber: Lotus Sekuritas
7
Weekly Strategic Senin, 02 Desember 2019
PWON PE Band SCMA PE Band
8.39x
12.18x
15.98x19.77x23.56x
100
325
550
775
1,000
Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19
6.39x
15.5x
24.6x
33.71x42.81x
500
1,750
3,000
4,250
5,500
Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19
Sumber: Lotus Sekuritas Sumber: Lotus Sekuritas
SRIL PE Band UNTR PE Band
3.27x
5.93x
8.6x
11.27x13.93x
50
250
450
650
850
Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19
4.41x
8.37x
12.33x16.29x20.25x
5,000
17,000
29,000
41,000
53,000
Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19
Sumber: Lotus Sekuritas Sumber: Lotus Sekuritas
WIKA PE Band WSKT PE Band
6.54x
14.5x
22.47x30.44x38.41x
100
1,300
2,500
3,700
4,900
Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19
3.68x
11x
18.32x25.64x32.97x
100
1,100
2,100
3,100
4,100
Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19
Sumber: Lotus Sekuritas Sumber: Lotus Sekuritas
8
Weekly Strategic Senin, 02 Desember 2019
Support Resistance Beta Volatility Bearish Bullish
MINING
Coal, Oil & Gas, Metal & Other Resources
Adaro Energy Tbk ADRO 1,230 1,210 1,345 0.97 6.11% 1.23% Overweight 1,200 1,255
Indika Energy Tbk INDY 1,085 1,080 1,270 1.38 8.46% -31.55% Overweight 1,050 1,115
Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk ITMG 10,225 10,225 11,775 1.09 6.60% -49.51% Overweight 9,950 10,475
Tambang Batu Bara Bukit Asam Tbk PTBA 2,420 2,410 2,630 1.17 5.80% -43.72% Overweight 2,350 2,480
Medco Energi International Tbk MEDC 710 640 730 1.30 6.34% 3.65% Overweight 685 730
Aneka Tambang Tbk ANTM 750 735 820 1.54 6.34% -1.96% Overweight 725 775
Vale Indonesia INCO 3,000 2,950 3,400 1.45 6.29% -7.98% Overweight 2,900 3,100
BASIC INDUSTRY
Cement, Chemistry, & Others
Indocement Tunggal Perkasa Tbk. INTP 19,400 19,225 20,500 1.58 5.72% 5.15% Underweight 18,700 20,100
Semen Gresik Tbk SMGR 11,450 11,300 12,300 1.42 5.04% -0.43% Underweight 11,075 11,800
Barito Pacific BRPT 1,360 1,205 1,435 1.07 6.68% 184.52% Underweight 1,325 1,395
Chandra Asri Petrochemical Tbk TPIA 9,350 8,900 9,425 0.85 5.00% 57.81% Underweight 9,150 9,525
Charoen Pokphand Indonesia Tbk CPIN 6,725 6,375 7,075 1.60 7.07% -6.92% Underweight 6,475 6,950
JAPFA JPFA 1,665 1,580 1,675 1.33 6.77% -22.56% Underweight 1,615 1,715
Indah Kiat Pulp and Paper Tbk INKP 6,800 6,750 7,475 2.08 9.35% -41.13% Underweight 6,475 7,125
Pabrik Kertas Tjiwi Kimia Tbk TKIM 9,200 9,200 11,275 2.43 11.09% -17.12% Underweight 8,675 9,700
MISC.INDUSTRY
Otomotif & Manufacturing of Garments
Astra International Tbk ASII 6,500 6,350 6,600 1.30 3.65% -20.97% Overweight 6,300 6,675
Sri Rejeki Isman Tbk SRIL 246 240 264 0.66 3.35% -31.28% Overweight 242 250
CONSUMER GOODS
Foods, Cigarette, Pharmacy & Others
Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur Tbk ICBP 11,325 11,300 11,550 0.72 3.06% 8.37% Underweight 11,125 11,500
Indofood Sukses Makmur Tbk INDF 7,950 7,725 8,000 1.19 4.22% 6.71% Underweight 7,725 8,150
Gudang Garam Tbk. GGRM 50,375 49,225 53,250 0.94 4.28% -39.76% Overweight 49,300 51,450
HM Sampoerna Tbk HMSP 1,935 1,900 2,040 1.00 4.10% -47.84% Overweight 1,890 1,980
Kalbe Farma Tbk KLBF 1,525 1,475 1,550 1.37 4.49% 0.33% Underweight 1,475 1,570
Unilever Indonesia Tbk UNVR 41,800 41,000 42,350 0.97 2.97% -7.93% Underweight 40,875 42,725
PROPERTY & CONSTRUCTION
Bumi Serpong Damai Tbk BSDE 1,250 1,230 1,360 1.50 5.34% -0.40% Overweight 1,205 1,290
Ciputra Development Tbk CTRA 1,005 960 1,050 1.71 6.71% -0.50% Overweight 965 1,040
Pakuwon Jati Tbk PWON 565 550 575 1.36 5.17% -8.87% Overweight 545 580
PP (Persero) Tbk PTPP 1,350 1,340 1,535 1.61 6.49% -25.21% Overweight 1,300 1,400
Wijaya Karya (Persero) Tbk WIKA 1,735 1,710 1,960 1.50 5.83% 4.83% Overweight 1,675 1,795
Waskita Karya (Persero) Tbk WSKT 1,225 1,215 1,385 1.55 5.73% -27.08% Overweight 1,180 1,265
INFRASTRUCTURE
Energy, Telecommunication, Transportation & Highway, Non Building Construction
Perusahaan Gas Negara Tbk PGAS 1,920 1,860 1,965 1.37 5.79% -9.43% Overweight 1,860 1,980
XL Axiata Tbk EXCL 3,340 3,070 3,590 0.97 6.64% 68.69% Underweight 3,260 3,410
Telekomunikasi Indonesia Tbk TLKM 3,930 3,800 4,070 0.97 3.41% 4.80% Overweight 3,840 4,040
Jasa Marga Tbk JSMR 4,940 4,550 5,125 1.23 4.69% 15.42% Overweight 4,800 5,075
FINANCE
Bank
Bank Central Asia Tbk BBCA 31,400 31,125 31,675 1.05 2.54% 20.77% Underweight 30,650 32,150
Bank Negara Indonesia BBNI 7,500 7,325 7,650 1.47 4.13% -14.77% Overweight 7,250 7,750
Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Persero) Tbk BBRI 4,090 4,010 4,210 1.38 3.65% 11.75% Underweight 3,960 4,220
Bank Tabungan Negara (Persero) Tbk BBTN 2,130 2,000 2,180 1.79 5.92% -16.14% Overweight 2,040 2,210
Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk BMRI 6,975 6,775 7,050 1.35 3.91% -5.42% Overweight 6,750 7,175
Bank Tabungan Pensiunan Nasional Syariah TbkBTPS 3,960 3,800 4,010 0.59 3.95% 120.61% Underweight 3,900 4,010
TRADE & SERVICE
Wholesale. Media, & Investment Company
AKR Corporindo Tbk AKRA 3,400 3,220 3,440 0.91 5.26% -20.75% Overweight 3,330 3,470
United Tractors Tbk UNTR 20,925 20,600 22,875 0.88 4.66% -23.49% Overweight 20,500 21,325
Erajaya Swasembada Tbk ERAA 1,340 1,305 1,540 1.72 10.47% -39.09% Overweight 1,285 1,390
Matahari Department Store Tbk LPPF 3,530 3,450 3,640 0.69 8.31% -36.96% Overweight 3,470 3,580
Media Nusantara Citra Tbk MNCN 1,250 1,235 1,405 0.86 6.92% 81.16% Overweight 1,225 1,275
Surya Citra Media Tbk SCMA 1,200 1,130 1,275 1.39 5.31% -35.83% Overweight 1,160 1,235
Emiten Ticker CloseWeekly Indicator
YTD PerformanceWeekly Forecast
Sumber: Lotus Sekuritas
9
Weekly Strategic Senin, 02 Desember 2019
DISCLAMER
This report has been prepared by PT. Lotus Sekuritas on behalf of itself and its affiliated companies and is provided for information purposes only. Under no circumstances is it to be used or considered as an offer to sell, or a solicitation of any offer to buy. This report has been produced independently and the forecasts,
opinions and expectations contained herein are entirely those of PT. Lotus Sekuritas.
While all reasonable care has been taken to ensure that information contained herein is not untrue or misleading at the time of publication, PT. Lotus Sekuritas
makes no representation as to its accuracy or completeness and it should not be relied upon as such. This report is provided solely for the information of clients of
PT. Lotus Sekuritas who are expected to make their own investment decisions without reliance on this report. Neither PT. Lotus Sekuritas nor any officer or
employee of PT. Lotus Sekuritas accept any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this report or its contents. PT. Lotus
Sekuritas and/or person connected with it may have acted upon or used the information herein contained, or the research or analysis on which it is based, before
publication.
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