Volume JCI Index - Sinarmas Sekuritasfinancial.sinarmassekuritas.co.id/info/research/Tahun... ·...
Transcript of Volume JCI Index - Sinarmas Sekuritasfinancial.sinarmassekuritas.co.id/info/research/Tahun... ·...
1
Today’s Market:
IHSG diperkirakan bergerak melemah. Bursa AS ditutup
melemah pada perdagangan Jumat (06/03). Harga batu-
bara turun ke level USD 65,90 per Mt. Crude oil turun ke
level USD 32,89 per barrel. Rupiah stabil terhadap Dollar
AS di level Rp 14.273. 10Yr Government Bonds Yield stabil
di level 6,83%.
Dari global, Jepang mencatatkan GDP kuartal-IV 2019
turun 1,8% QoQ / -7,1% YoY.
Dari dalam negeri, Bank Indonesia menurunkan proyeksi
pertumbuhan kredit di tahun 2020 menjadi 9-11%, dari
sebelumnya 10-12%.
Sehubungan dengan emiten, Wijaya Karya Bangunan Ge-
dung (WEGE) mencatatkan pendapatan sepanjang 2019
sebesar Rp 4,6 tn (-20,7% YoY), dan laba bersih Rp 452
bn (+1,7% YoY). Hasil tersebut tercatat di bawah esti-
masi.
Sehubungan dengan emiten, Aviva International Holding
Ltd akan menyerahkan sebanyak 50% kepemilikan sa-
hamnya dalam perusahaan patungan PT Astra Aviva Life
kepada Astra International (ASII).
Secara teknikal indeks hari Senin (09/03), IHSG diprediksi
bergerak di kisaran 5452-5535.
Source: Bloomberg, Sinarmas Investment Research See pg. 6-8 for Technical Corner
www.sinarmassekuritas.co.id See important disclaimer at the end of this report
Monday, March 9, 2020
ID X Stat ist ics C lo sing
JCI 5,498.54
Transaction Value Regular M arket (IDR tn) 4.465
Transaction Volume Regular M arket (mn shares) 3,243
Foreign Net Buy (Sell) (IDR bn) (1,310)
Foreign Net Buy (Sell) (0.46)
Total M arket Capitalization (IDR tn) 6,386.64
LQ45 887.03 (3.55) (12.56)
EIDO 21.29 (2.56) (17.03)
IDX 18.54 (2.65) (18.06)
DOW JONES 25,864.78 (0.98) (9.37)
S&P 500 2,972.37 (1.71) (8.00)
NASDAQ 8,575.62 (1.87) (4.42)
FTSE 6,462.55 (3.62) (14.32)
NIKKEI 20,749.75 (2.72) (12.29)
HANG SENG 26,146.67 (2.32) (7.25)
STRAITS TIM ES 2,960.98 (1.90) (8.12)
KLSE 1,483.10 (0.53) (6.65)
USD/IDR 14,273.00 0.39 2.80
EUR/IDR 16,174.99 1.71 4.08
JPY/IDR 137.41 2.53 6.86
SGD/IDR 10,343.49 0.92 0.58
AUD/IDR 9,416.00 0.49 (3.01)
GBP/IDR 18,360.95 0.00 2.34
Crude Oil (USD/barrel) 32.89 7:58:32 AM (46.28)
Coal (USD/mn tons) 65.90 3/6/2020 (2.66)
Natural Gas (USD/mmBtu) 1.71 7:58:14 AM (24.67)
Gold (USD/ounce) 1,699.05 8:08:33 AM 11.89
Nickel (USD/mn tons) 12,560.00 8:08:31 AM (10.34)
Tins (USD/mn tons) 16,875.00 3/6/2020 (1.75)
CPO (M YR/mn tons) 2,448.00 3/6/2020 (19.50)
Rubber (JPY/kg) 158.40 8:03:14 AM (10.38)
Wheat (USD/bushel) 516.00 7:00:00 AM (7.65)
Corn (USD/bushel) 372.25 7:57:24 AM (4.00)
C o mmo dit ies
Other Indices C lo sing 1-D ay C hg (%)YT D
C hg (%)
C urrency Spo t R ate R ate ( ID R ) 1-D ay C hg (%)YT D
C hg (%)
P riceLast
T ransact io n
YT D
C hg (%)
IHSG turun sebanyak 139.6 poin (2.48%) ke level 5498.54.
Sementara LQ45 turun sebanyak 32.6 poin (3.55%) ke level
887.03. Foreign net sell sebesar Rp 1310.44 miliar.
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
5,500
6,000
6,500
7,000
Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20
Millio
ns
Volume JCI Index
2
Daily Corporate and Industry News
Badan Koordinasi Penanaman Modal (BKPM) mengeklaim telah mendapatkan komitmen investasi dari sebuah negara di Asia dengan nilai US$ 3 miliar sampai US$ 4 miliar. Source: Investor Daily Bank Indonesia menurunkan proyeksi pertumbuhan kredit di tahun 2020 menjadi 9-11%, dari sebelumnya 10-12%. Source: Kontan Sejumlah proyek listrik dalam program 35.000 Megawatt (MW) diproyeksikan molor akibat merebaknya virus Corona (Covid-19) di China dan sejumlah negara. Salah satunya PLTU (Pembangkit Listrik Tenaga Uap) Jawa 7 di Banten. Source: Bisnis Indonesia Wijaya Karya Bangunan Gedung (WEGE) mencatatkan pendapatan sepanjang 2019 sebesar Rp 4,6 tn (-20,7% YoY), dan laba bersih Rp 452 bn (+1,7% YoY). Source: Kontan Kalbe Farma (KLBF) berencana menambah pabrik baru yang memproduksi benang operasi di Pulogadung, Jakarta yang ditargetkan dapat berproduksi secara komersial di tahun 2021. Source: Kontan Aviva International Holding Ltd akan menyerahkan sebanyak 50% kepemilikan sahamnya dalam perusahaan patun-gan PT Astra Aviva Life kepada Astra International (ASII). Source: Investor Daily ‘
www.sinarmassekuritas.co.id See important disclaimer at the end of this report
3
World Equity Indices
Source: Bloomberg, Sinarmas Investment Research
www.sinarmassekuritas.co.id See important disclaimer at the end of this report
WOR LD EQUIT Y IN D IC ES
N O T IC KER
1 INDU Index 29,568.57 24,680.57 (2,673.66) (9.37) 18.33 16.53 3.86 3.70 7,580.98 7,580.98
2 SPX Index 3,393.52 2,722.27 (258.41) (8.00) 19.45 17.25 3.27 3.07 25,581.35 25,581.35
3 CCM P Index 9,838.37 7,292.21 (396.99) (4.42) 32.95 23.54 4.48 4.32 13,296.35 13,296.35
4 SPTSX Index 17,970.51 15,891.94 (888.41) (5.21) 16.11 14.77 1.74 1.59 2,470.83 1,841.98
5 M EXBOL Index 45,955.41 38,265.51 (2,152.24) (4.94) 15.72 13.63 2.03 1.77 5,176.18 256.41
6 SX5E Index 3,867.28 3,216.44 (513.08) (13.70) 17.31 12.77 1.51 1.44 2,837.94 3,208.29
7 UKX Index 7,727.49 6,431.44 (1,079.89) (14.32) 18.56 11.94 1.58 1.49 1,722.41 2,239.65
8 CAC Index 6,111.41 5,117.57 (838.95) (14.03) 18.72 13.08 1.47 1.41 1,586.16 1,793.15
9 DAX Index 13,795.24 11,266.48 (1,707.14) (12.89) 19.95 12.73 1.41 1.34 1,068.70 1,208.16
10 IBEX Index 10,100.20 8,310.40 (1,173.60) (12.29) 18.39 11.15 1.20 1.12 526.67 595.40
11 FTSEM IB Index 25,483.05 19,535.50 (2,706.48) (11.51) 14.80 10.36 1.05 0.99 467.51 528.52
12 AEX Index 632.12 528.49 (73.29) (12.12) 17.96 14.86 1.72 1.71 710.67 803.41
13 SM I Index 11,270.00 9,228.86 (880.12) (8.29) 20.50 15.72 2.47 2.37 1,172.70 1,250.48
14 AS51 Index 7,197.20 5,865.60 (808.18) (12.09) 18.05 15.82 1.88 1.81 1,871.38 1,241.10
15 AS30 Index 7,289.70 5,928.10 (865.90) (12.73) 18.09 16.02 1.83 1.80 2,035.14 1,349.71
16 SHSZ300 Index 4,223.51 3,556.26 41.93 1.02 14.75 12.10 1.88 1.64 33,012.85 4,761.77
17 SHASHR Index 3,444.44 2,814.01 (16.01) (0.50) 14.61 11.09 1.48 1.27 35,043.26 5,054.63
18 SZASHR Index 2,035.92 1,524.76 201.59 11.19 39.63 18.88 2.81 2.76 26,485.57 3,820.27
19 HSI Index 30,280.12 24,899.93 (2,043.08) (7.25) 10.95 10.18 1.15 1.06 17,230.41 2,217.53
20 HSCEI Index 11,881.68 9,731.89 (711.13) (6.37) 8.43 7.99 1.11 0.99 12,789.15 1,645.94
21 SENSEX Index 42,273.87 35,987.80 (3,677.12) (8.91) 22.99 20.32 2.93 2.84 70,418.79 949.17
22 NIFTY Index 12,430.50 10,637.15 (1,179.00) (9.69) 21.49 19.50 2.68 2.57 82,347.09 1,109.95
23 JCI Index 6,636.33 5,288.37 (801.00) (12.72) 16.77 13.06 1.57 1.80 6,386,643.40 446.49
24 LQ45 Index 1,059.65 846.02 (127.44) (12.56) 14.69 13.10 2.11 1.94 4,099,711.35 286.61
25 KSE100 Index 43,468.22 28,670.98 (2,515.41) (6.18) 8.86 6.29 1.16 1.02 6,085.18 39.44
26 NKY Index 24,115.95 19,777.42 (3,799.91) (16.06) 17.57 15.79 1.48 1.45 336,465.19 3,189.85
27 NEY Index 356.77 291.70 (57.34) (16.39) 12.38 11.96 0.95 0.93 398,018.92 3,773.41
28 TPX Index 1,747.20 1,407.34 (310.70) (18.05) 13.41 12.44 0.99 1.00 560,939.78 5,317.97
29 FBM KLCI Index 1,694.89 1,456.08 (105.66) (6.65) 16.57 15.44 1.47 1.39 956.03 229.15
30 NZSE Index 2,019.39 1,615.17 (66.18) (3.44) 26.91 26.27 2.22 2.26 155.05 98.52
31 PCOM P Index 8,419.59 6,700.75 (1,044.88) (13.37) 14.51 13.50 1.58 1.53 8,435.60 167.01
32 FSSTI Index 3,415.18 2,959.16 (261.85) (8.12) 11.47 12.29 1.02 0.99 516.91 374.93
33 KOSPI Index 2,277.23 1,891.81 (215.51) (9.81) 17.83 11.08 0.77 0.81 1,320,119.34 1,110.31
34 TWSE Index 12,197.64 10,180.04 (675.33) (5.63) 18.06 15.34 1.68 1.76 34,211.10 1,140.03
35 SET Index 1,748.15 1,317.45 (215.27) (13.63) 16.02 14.56 1.45 1.46 14,639.35 464.45
36 SET50 Index 1,164.72 884.05 (154.28) (14.44) 16.02 15.20 1.71 1.57 10,240.79 324.90
37 VNINDEX Index 1,028.97 872.46 (69.55) (7.24) 13.87 12.88 2.05 2.07 3,053,215.95 131.56
T railing
12M2020E
D o main
C urrencyUSDLOW P OIN T %
T railing
12M2020E
A sia/ P acif ic
A merica
52-WEEK C H A N GE YT D P ER (x) P B V (x) M A R KET C A P (B n)
Euro pe
H IGH
4
LQ45
Source: Bloomberg, Sinarmas Investment Research
www.sinarmassekuritas.co.id See important disclaimer at the end of this report
LQ45 Index
HIGH LOW POINT %Trailing
12M2020E
Trailing
12M2020E
1 ADRO IJ 1,175 1,715 1,010 (380) (24.44) 6.53 6.87 0.71 0.62 37,583,505
2 AKRA IJ 2,540 5,550 2,390 (1,410) (35.70) 14.11 12.31 1.24 1.17 10,197,325
3 ANTM IJ 630 1,175 540 (210) (25.00) 18.82 15.97 0.76 0.75 15,139,382
4 ASII IJ 6,050 8,025 5,525 (875) (12.64) 11.28 10.56 1.66 1.54 244,925,496
5 BBCA IJ 32,175 35,300 25,700 (1,250) (3.74) 27.77 24.80 4.56 4.05 793,274,947
6 BBNI IJ 6,825 10,250 6,550 (1,025) (13.06) 8.27 7.32 1.04 1.01 127,277,080
7 BBRI IJ 4,150 4,760 3,660 (250) (5.68) 14.77 13.06 2.46 2.32 511,885,112
8 BBTN IJ 1,720 2,750 1,620 (400) (18.87) 88.32 7.72 0.76 0.86 18,214,800
9 BMRI IJ 7,600 8,175 6,275 (75) (0.98) 12.91 11.61 1.73 1.73 354,666,667
10 BRPT IJ 1,015 1,525 592 (495) (32.78) 493.15 35.60 5.32 0.87 90,351,859
11 BSDE IJ 1,100 1,580 965 (155) (12.35) 6.95 8.46 0.73 0.72 21,171,366
12 BTPS IJ 4,060 5,125 2,090 (190) (4.47) 22.31 18.79 7.83 4.82 31,277,022
13 CPIN IJ 6,500 8,000 4,190 0 0.00 29.29 31.10 5.33 5.00 106,587,000
14 CTRA IJ 920 1,335 855 (120) (11.54) 16.87 18.25 1.16 1.13 17,075,479
15 ERAA IJ 1,790 2,260 965 (5) (0.28) 16.06 19.25 1.22 1.12 5,710,100
16 EXCL IJ 2,480 3,730 2,290 (670) (21.27) 37.39 22.70 1.39 1.30 26,506,142
17 GGRM IJ 50,950 93,500 49,175 (2,050) (3.87) 10.57 9.91 2.07 1.98 98,032,284
18 HMSP IJ 1,785 3,860 1,640 (315) (15.00) 14.81 14.45 6.50 5.79 207,627,767
19 ICBP IJ 10,950 12,550 8,950 (200) (1.79) 25.64 25.37 5.33 5.21 127,697,893
20 INCO IJ 2,670 4,320 2,290 (970) (26.65) 32.26 23.41 0.96 0.93 26,530,024
21 INDF IJ 7,200 8,300 5,850 (725) (9.15) 12.95 13.53 1.74 1.75 63,219,071
22 ACES IJ 1,485 1,920 1,395 (10) (0.67) 25.54 24.28 5.69 5.31 25,467,750
23 INKP IJ 6,250 11,150 5,300 (1,450) (18.83) 7.74 - 0.60 - 34,193,643
24 INTP IJ 15,000 22,875 14,050 (4,025) (21.16) 32.40 33.39 2.47 2.37 55,218,475
25 ITMG IJ 10,900 24,475 9,800 (575) (5.01) 6.49 6.95 0.94 0.93 12,316,183
26 JPFA IJ 1,520 2,430 1,280 (15) (0.98) 10.06 9.10 1.65 1.46 17,824,394
27 JSMR IJ 4,890 6,450 4,500 (285) (5.51) 18.35 17.27 1.96 1.87 35,490,990
28 KLBF IJ 1,330 1,690 1,175 (290) (17.90) 24.28 24.02 4.07 3.89 62,343,912
29 LPPF IJ 2,980 4,500 2,900 (1,230) (29.22) 6.13 6.04 4.55 3.25 8,358,552
30 TBIG IJ 1,110 1,365 608 (120) (9.76) 35.11 28.29 6.76 6.48 25,149,269
31 MNCN IJ 1,340 1,780 725 (290) (17.79) 7.52 8.89 1.50 1.59 19,129,979
32 PGAS IJ 1,425 2,530 1,255 (745) (34.33) 11.22 10.00 0.93 0.88 34,544,149
33 PTBA IJ 2,460 4,260 2,110 (200) (7.52) 6.60 7.56 1.51 1.50 28,340,822
34 PTPP IJ 1,160 2,550 1,065 (425) (26.81) 6.15 6.00 0.55 0.54 7,191,881
35 PWON IJ 545 815 510 (25) (4.39) 9.01 9.83 1.82 1.79 26,246,983
36 SCMA IJ 1,150 1,870 1,045 (260) (18.44) 13.77 12.97 3.25 3.32 16,990,873
37 SMGR IJ 11,100 14,450 9,600 (900) (7.50) 28.81 32.38 2.11 2.05 65,839,872
38 SRIL IJ 208 372 173 (52) (20.00) 3.42 2.92 0.51 - 4,254,053
39 TKIM IJ 7,600 13,475 5,575 (2,675) (26.03) 11.04 - 1.21 - 23,660,499
40 TLKM IJ 3,830 4,500 3,340 (140) (3.53) 18.73 18.36 3.81 3.55 379,408,290
41 TOWR IJ 860 900 600 55 6.83 21.07 19.50 5.13 4.81 43,872,578
42 UNTR IJ 18,025 28,900 16,550 (3,500) (16.26) 5.94 6.54 1.16 1.02 67,235,686
43 UNTR IJ 18,025 28,900 16,550 (3,500) (16.26) 5.94 6.54 1.16 1.02 67,235,686
44 WIKA IJ 1,830 2,500 1,710 (160) (8.04) 7.38 7.88 1.04 1.04 16,415,011
45 WSKT IJ 1,010 2,230 890 (475) (31.99) 9.89 5.53 0.75 0.66 13,709,691
MARKET CAP
(Mn)LQ45 Index
CHANGE YTD PER (x) PBV (x)
5-Mar-20
52-WEEK
5
Macro data
Source: Bloomberg, Sinarmas Investment Research
D escript io n 1-D ay (%) 5-D ays (%) 1-M o nth (%) YT D (%)
Property (2.20) (1.16) (7.27) (16.21)
Basic Industry (2.38) 2.09 (12.13) (20.81)
Trade (1.74) (0.80) (7.48) (13.50)
Finance (3.06) (1.23) (8.45) (8.91)
M iscellaneous Industry (4.96) 2.25 (10.07) (17.34)
Consumer (1.45) 3.91 (8.87) (11.77)
Infrastructure (2.56) 4.02 (5.16) (12.51)
Agriculture (0.96) 2.75 (13.23) (22.03)
M ining (1.05) 1.27 (5.03) (12.43)
F eb-20 Jan-20
0.66 3.61
2.98 2.68
0.28 0.39
130.40 131.70
F OR EX Spo t R ate 1-D ay (%) 1-M o nth (%) YT D (%)
USD/IDR 14,265.00 - (3.88) (2.80)
USD/CNY 6.93 0.06 0.55 0.44
USD/EUR 0.88 (0.70) (3.98) (1.33)
USD/JPY 104.11 1.23 5.44 4.32
USD/SGD 1.38 0.12 0.92 (2.24)
USD/AUD 1.51 0.41 1.14 6.13
USD/GBP 0.76 (0.23) (1.27) 1.35
( in %)
5.36
0.60
1.46
6.00
6.83
7.29
Inflation M oM (in %)
Foreign Reserves (in USD bn)
Secto rs
Eco no mic Indicato rs
Inflation YTD (in %)
Eco no mic P arameters
Inflation YoY (in %)
Indonesia 5-Year Government Bonds Yield
Indonesia 10-Year Government Bonds Yield
Indonesia 15-Year Government Bonds Yield
Lending and D epo sit R ates
JIBOR (in IDR)
LIBOR (in GBP)
SIBOR ( in USD)
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Technical Corner
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JCI : MELEMAH
Last price : 5.498
Support : 5.452, 5.415
Resistance : 5.535, 5.557
JCI pada hari ini kami perkirakan akan bergerak MELEMAH dengan range 5.452 - 5.535. JCI breakdown
Support 5516, berpeluang melanjutkan pelemahan dengan menguji Support 5.452 dan 5.415. Namun, jika JCI
bertahan diatas 5.516, berpeluang mencoba Resistance 5.535 dan 5.557. Indikator Stoc osc mengindikasikan
pola Uptrend dan MACD masih membentuk pola Downtrend.
Jakarta Composite Index (JCI)
Summary of portfolio:Stock Recommendation Comment
LSIP HOLD LSIP breakdown Support 1.000, berpeluang melanjutkan pelemahan denganmenguji Support 980 dan 965. Namun, jika LSIP bertahan diatas Support
1.000, akan mencoba Resistance 1.020 dan 1.045.
SMRA REDUCE SMRA berhasil break Support 815 sebagai level Stop Loss, SMRA masihberpeluang melanjutkan pelemahan dengan menguji Support 790 dan 765.
UNVR BUY ON WEAKNESS UNVR berhasil bertahan diatas Support 7.375, berpeluang mencoba Resistance7.500 dan 7.600. Namun, jika UNVR gagal bertahan diatas 7.375, akan
menguji Support 7.300 dan 7.225.
EXCL REDUCE EXCL berhasil break Support 2.420 sebagai level Stop Loss. EXCL masihberpeluang melanjutkan pelemahan dengan menguji Support 2.290 dan 2.270.
LSIP : HOLD
Last price : 990Target price : 1.095 (7.4%)Stop loss : 965 (-5.4%)
LSIP breakdown Support 1.000, berpeluang melanjutkan pelemahan dengan menguji Support 980 dan 965. Namun,jika LSIP bertahan diatas Support 1.000, akan mencoba Resistance 1.020 dan 1.045. Indikator MACD mengindikasikanpola Downtrend dan Stoc osc mengindikasikan pola Downtrend.
SMRA : REDUCE
Last price : 805Stop loss : 815 (-4.1%)
SMRA berhasil break Support 815 sebagai level Stop Loss, SMRA masih berpeluang melanjutkan pelemahan denganmenguji Support 790 dan 765. SMRA dilihat dari Indikator MACD dan Stoc osc mengindikasikan pola Downtrend.
Support : 980, 965Resistance : 1.020, 1.045
Support : 790, 765Resistance : 815, 835
Summarecon Agung Tbk (SMRA)
PP London Sumatra Indonesia Tbk (LSIP)
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Unilever Indonesia Tbk (UNVR)
Excelcomindo PratamaTbk (EXCL)
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UNVR : BUY ON WEAKNESS
Last price : 7.450Target price : 7.700 (4.4%)Entry point : 7.375Stop loss : 7.100 (-3.7%)
UNVR berhasil bertahan diatas Support 7.375, berpeluang mencoba Resistance 7.500 dan 7.600. Namun, jika UNVRgagal bertahan diatas 7.375, akan menguji Support 7.300 dan 7.225. UNVR dilihat dari Indikator MACD dan indikatorStoc osc mengindikasikan pola Uptrend.
EXCL : REDUCE
Last price : 2.310Stop loss : 2.420 (-4.0%)
EXCL berhasil break Support 2.420 sebagai level Stop Loss. EXCL masih berpeluang melanjutkan pelemahan denganmenguji Support 2.290 dan 2.270. EXCL dilihat dari Indikator MACD dan Stoc osc mengindikasikan pola Downtrend.
Support : 7.375, 7.300Resistance : 7.500, 7.600
Support : 2.290, 2.270Resistance : 2.360, 2.420
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