Post on 20-Feb-2023
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The focus of this essay will use Edward Cornish’s (2005)
“Futuring: The Exploration of the Future” as a guide, and shall be
supplemented by peer reviewed literature. In his book, (2005),
Cornish discusses six “supertrends”, which are the main forces of
change currently shaping the future of the world. The three films
selected for this essay cannot be described merely through the
use of one supertrend, however attractive it might be to simplify
the answer as to how they are all interrelated. Technological
progress, economic growth, and environmental decline are the
three main supertrends which tie the aforementioned documentaries
together. In order to further simplify these supertrends, their
relationship to each film will be examined, in order to show that
capitalism is the driving force behind the grim forecast for the
future of humankind, and the Earth itself. Moreover, the negative
aspects of these supertrends can be averted, or changed into
favorable outcomes if changes in human action are made
immediately.
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The Supertrends
The Great Transformation (Cornish, 2005) can be defined as
the “current metamorphosis of human life as we now know it, and
we can add that it affects not only humans everywhere but also
the natural world around us” (p. 9). In this age of rapid and
constant change, it is crucial to have an understanding of
trends, how to analyze them, and their future implications. The
interconnected nature of these trends characterizes the Great
Transformation.
The first supertrend discussed by Cornish (2005) is
technological progress. This progress can be traced back to the
dawn of civilization, with the use of tools. Cornish (2005) sees
this trend as paramount in comparison to the others, and goes so
far as to say that it is not merely a supertrend, but additionally
it is a superforce (p. 22). This is because it generates change on
a huge scale, while also giving life to other supertrends, or
agents of change. Arguably, technology is the most important
supertrend because of its potential to create social change.
Human progress could benefit from technological progress in many
ways, and yet, technology is not meeting the needs of those it
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should serve. Information and Communication Technology (ICT) is
an example of where technology is falling short of human
progress. “Structural relationships in societies
and between them have remained the same and they might be getting
worse. This is the reason why the expansion in connectivity has
not improved the reality in which we live, nor the mood of the
people around the world” (Radovan, 2013). ICT is meant to connect
people, and it does, but there is a dark side to connectivity.
The use and marketing of information technology does not foster
knowledge of how or why the technology works, and this is highly
problematic.
Cornish (2005) states that economic growth is “the most
obvious supertrend produced by technological progress” (p. 22).
This is due to the fact that technological advancements hold the
potential to improve the efficiency and quality of life.
Merchandises and amenities could be produced at a lower cost, and
higher quality because of new technologies, and this is why there
is such a high demand. This “techno-economic growth” (Cornish,
2005) has ramped up the rate at which life is transforming, and
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this is set to continue increasing exponentially. “Growth
continues in the twenty first century, though the rate of growth
is often viewed as unsatisfactory because it remains inadequate
for the world’s needs, let alone its greeds” (p. 24).
Environmental decline is the final supertrend to be
discussed. It is the result of over-population, and economic
growth (Cornish, p.27). Climate change, or global warming, is a
scientific fact, however it is treated as a myth by right wing
politicians, and skeptics with religious ideological strategies.
The International panel on Climate Change (IPCC) recently
reported, “warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and
since the 1950’s, many of the observed changes are unprecedented
over decades to millennia” (IPCC, 2013, pg. 3). Despite
scientific proof that climate change is the direct result of
human action, humans are also failing to act to stop it. Numerous
reports have been released in late 2013 regarding the fact that
it might already be too late to stop a global catastrophe. The
ever increasing demand for petroleum, the declining supply of
freshwater globally, over-fished oceans, and the extinction of
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countless animal and plant species are some of the other major
concerns besides global warming (Cornish, 2005, p. 27).
Futurists such as Edward Cornish believe that in order to
understand where humanity is headed, the employment of
supertrends is a reliable methodology for creating an image of
what life on Earth might be like. This scenario is based on the
assumption that things will continue on into the future the way
that they are going today; that those who have the power to
change the world will either choose to do nothing, or be
powerless to act regardless. Supertrends are likely to change,
particularly because of how they are interconnected. Improving
health, increasing mobility, and increasing deculturation round
out the other three supertrends to make six in total. These six
trends work separately, and together to create the landscape of
modern life. Cornish insists that “trends are not forces of
destiny; they can and do change” (p. 36). This means that
although there are some bleak visions of the future, all is not
lost. At least, not yet. The potential for humankind’s survival
is still tangible, and the prognosis for the future does not have
to be Armageddon, or doomsday. The main tool to avert total
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destruction is knowledge. “Ignorance is the soil on which all
sorts of radical and extreme attitudes can be successfully
cultivated, spread, and practiced” (Radovan, 2013). In order for
society to be informed about its choices, political policies must
change in order to empower the people, and work away from
capitalism as it is known today, and toward social democracy.
The Documentaries
Now that the relevant supertrends have been defined, it is
possible to analyze and synthesize the three documentaries
selected for this essay.
Meltdown: The Secret History of the Global Financial Collapse
The Canadian Broadcasting Corporation’s documentary,
“Meltdown” (Doczone, 2010), is an exploration into the causes
behind the global economic collapse of 2008. The main takeaway
was that Alan Greenspan, the former head of the Federal Reserve,
had made a grievous error in judgment when he assumed that free
markets would self-regulate. In reality, the housing boom of
2005, and credit lending to risky consumers led to the bursting
of the bubble. This set off a chain of events, which caused
catastrophic consequences to the global economy. It seems on the
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surface preposterous that a miscalculation regarding the greed of
men could result in a breakdown of economic power worldwide, but
that is precisely what occurred.
Edward Cornish (2005) describes the international financial
crisis of the early 1930’s, in an effort to show how society can
learn from the past in order to predict the future.
“Globalization, telecommunications, and the Internet now have
linked financial systems to each other more closely than ever.
This may make the world more subject to a chain reaction of bank
and business failures that leaves little economic strength
anywhere” (Pg. 117). This interconnectivity of global markets is
a direct result of techno-economic growth; the supertrend power
couple. Technology connects and entwines economic systems
together, but it does not serve to inform them of impending
disaster.
In terms of economic growth, the financial crisis can be
seen as a direct result of the failure of the capitalist system.
Costas Panayotakis (2010) stated, “in short, far from seeing the
rise of a global social democratic movement capable of
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ameliorating the economic and ecological crises befalling
humanity and the planet, we are seeing an ever-stronger
determination on the part of capitalist elites to continue with
business as usual” (p. 2)”. The inaction of the United States
government to regulate Wall Street and bring those who
participated in illegal lending practices to risky borrowers to
justice compounds this fact. In 2013, few of the participants who
began the domino effect that resulted in the global financial
meltdown have yet to be charged, or tried for their crimes.
Wealth that was earned and invested by millions of Americans for
retirement has vanished. Where did it go? It still exists
somewhere, but it has changed hands and is now the property of a
person or a group of people that it does not belong to. This is
grand theft, capitalist style. The supertrends of technology and
economic growth convey how flawed the system truly is, and the
projections for the future are not positive if trading practices
continue to go unregulated.
Visions of the Future: The Intelligence Revolution
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The next documentary to be analyzed is BBC Four’s “Visions of
the Future” (Panic, 2007). This film was narrated by theoretical
physicist, professor, and futurist Michio Kaku, and describes how
technology is guiding, and shaping the future of humankind.
Clearly, Visions of the Future directly relates to the supertrend of
technological progress. One example of this is the discussion of
biotechnology in the program. Cornish states that “the most
important applications [for biotechnology] lie in it’s potential
for enhancing the physical, mental, and emotional capabilities
for humans themselves” (pg. 19). Ray Kurzweil, futurist,
inventor, and current director of engineering at Google, has come
up with a concept called “the singularity”. Kurzweil defines this
as "... a future period during which the pace of technological
change will be so rapid, its impact so deep, that human life will
be irreversibly transformed” (Kurzweil, 2005). This “singularity”
will be a merging of man and machine, to create a “transhuman”
race. Cornish’s (2005) concept of The Great Transformation can be
applied to the concepts presented in this documentary, as the
human body itself, both internally and externally, has been
forecasted to change along with the world outside it. Kurzweil’s
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work at Google has brought out “Google Glass”, which is
essentially a cybernetic set of eyes; glasses that have a camera,
and computer screen built in.
“The Transhumanist Movement articulates a vision of
transcending – going beyond our current limitations as biological
humans. One way to do that is to reprogram our biology, and that
process, called biotechnology, is well underway and will reach
its mature phase in one to two decades” (Kurzweil, 2013). This
might seem impossible, but the scientific community are
discussing this in a serious tone. Beyond the concept of the
singularity, or transhumanism, the future as seen through the
lens of technological progress is one whose fate depends on the
choices made by policymakers. Fei-Yue Wang (2012) suggests that
“even in the absence of a technological singularity, we have to
find a way to avoid [a] proposed technological catastrophe. The
difficulty lies in the fact that this is not a purely technical
problem; it is a political problem— more precisely, a societal,
human problem” (p.3). Kurzweil (2013) recently said in an
interview that although his technological ideology is consistent
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with that of “transhumanism”, he feel that the term is not
completely accurate. “My views are certainly consistent with the
Trans- humanist movement. My only hesitation is that I don’t like
the term Transhumanism because it implies that we will transcend
our humanity. The way I articulate this is that we will remain
human but transcend our biological limitations” (p. 6).
The supertrend of economic growth pushes technology forward,
and this is set to continue. One issue that threatens
technological progress is the final supertrend in this analysis;
environmental decline. The development of technologies creates
pollution and waste. It also creates a deepening “digital
divide”, which is characterized by only the wealthiest people
having access to technology, while those who cannot afford it are
left without it. This could be a global cultural catastrophe.
Conversely, technology could help societies communicate more
efficiently, and help to support social progress. “It seems that
technological and functional uni cation of the world incites fi
cooperation and creates a sense of mutual connectedness of all
people. There surely are such tendencies, but the process of
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bringing humanity together in constructive cooperation is slow
and it is often hindered by power-holders who purposely separate
their communities from others and who seek excuses for aggressive
behavior toward others” (Radovan, 2013, p. 305). It becomes very
clear that the capitalistic ideology of corporate greed fuels the
constant outflow of new technologies at a dizzying rate. Special
attention should be taken to assure that all people have access
to information technology. This is a challenge, as capitalism
thrives upon profit, and the socially democratic ideology of
equality does not support the capitalist ethos. “Although
technological innovation is presupposed of social justice, in
globalized capitalist societies, effective application of
principles of equality reduces the profit incentives for
technological innovation” (Papaioannou, 2011).
The 11th Hour
Hollywood star Leonardo DiCaprio’s documentary, The 11th
Hour (Conners & DiCaprio, 2007), is a feature length film
which is a series of interviews with various climate
scientists, physicists, global cultural leaders, and seeks
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to create a dialogue about the impending global
environmental catastrophe. It is a warning that human
progress is actually killing the planet. The supertrends of
technological progress, and economic growth have given birth
to the supertrend of economic decline, and The 11th Hour
supports this fact. As human progress ultimately destroys
nature, human progress will destroy itself. The basis of all
life in the known universe exists on Earth.
It is apparent within the scientific community that
national and international policymakers are those who hold
the key to slowing or halting climate change, but this is
not happening quickly enough, and this is one main theme of
this documentary. Joel Wainright (2010) suggests that,
“although this growing attention to social processes and
political advocacy has generated much discussion among
climate scientists, it has received relatively little
scholarly attention. Such consideration is overdue” (p.
984). The global financial crisis is also linked to the
global climate crisis, as capitalism continually commodifies
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natural resources for its own means in order to grow. Could
capitalism be killing the earth? François Houtart (2010)
states, “According to a report prepared for the British
Government in 2007 by Nicholas Stern (2006) of the World
Bank, we can, if nothing is done, expect between 150 and 200
million climate migrants by mid-century, i.e. people who
will no longer be able to live where they live now” (p. 12).
People will be displaced from their homes, and this will
change the cultural geography of the world. The changes
which must be made by corporate industries will be
expensive, and this is not considered favorable. The
capitalist ideology is one which does not consider nature as
the precious, fragile, and limited resource that it is.
Houtart (2010) adds, “this too is the fruit of the same
logic: considering nature as a resource for capitalist
growth, and refusing to integrate into the balance sheet the
externalities of the productive system” (p. 12).
Conclusion
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Through the lens of Edward Cornish’s (2005)
supertrends, the interrelated elements of Meltdown
(Doczone,2010), Visions of the Future (Panic, 2007), and The 11th
Hour (Conners & DiCaprio, 2007) crystallize, and illuminate
the fact that the underlying cause of the social issues in
each film are undoubtedly the result of rampant capitalism.
The global economic crisis, and the climate crisis share
many similarities (Leichenko, et al., 2010). Technological
progress, which is the main feature of Visions of the Future
(2007), is in danger of being stunted or completely halted
because of the economic and climate crises. Moreover,
technology is not succeeding in making people smarter, but
is actually alienating its consumers. The problem with the
global economy is that there are only a small number of
corporate powers in the world who hold all of the economic
power. This is the result of globalization. “Within a
capitalist economy, inequalities in wealth and power make it
difficult to build coalitions around shared sacri ce. fi
Inequality also entrenches the capacity of the wealthy—who
bene t disproportionately from economic growth—to prevent fi
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the conversion of our carbon-intensive economy into a more
sustainable alternative” (Wainright, 2010). Globalization is
here to stay; social democracy must change in order to
accommodate trade, and capitalism must be altered or
destroyed completely in order to allow the implementation of
environmental policymaking that brings an end to the
impending climate, and economic global disasters facing
humanity. “This places social democracy and the mainstream
Left in a paradoxical position. Having accepted capitalism,
they cannot ground their political identity on a rejection
of that system. Thus, the only way they can establish a
political raison d’être for themselves is by posing as
purveyors of a “good” capitalism that is to be distinguished
from the “bad” (or ersatz) capitalism of their opponents”
(Panayotakis, 2010). Therefore, the answer might not be to
do away with capitalism, but to adapt it to the needs of the
citizens of the world, and create a social democracy. In
this age of Great Transformation, there is a sense that a
social revolution is coming.
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