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Supertrends: Toward a Social Democracy

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The focus of this essay will use Edward Cornish’s (2005)

“Futuring: The Exploration of the Future” as a guide, and shall be

supplemented by peer reviewed literature. In his book, (2005),

Cornish discusses six “supertrends”, which are the main forces of

change currently shaping the future of the world. The three films

selected for this essay cannot be described merely through the

use of one supertrend, however attractive it might be to simplify

the answer as to how they are all interrelated. Technological

progress, economic growth, and environmental decline are the

three main supertrends which tie the aforementioned documentaries

together. In order to further simplify these supertrends, their

relationship to each film will be examined, in order to show that

capitalism is the driving force behind the grim forecast for the

future of humankind, and the Earth itself. Moreover, the negative

aspects of these supertrends can be averted, or changed into

favorable outcomes if changes in human action are made

immediately.

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The Supertrends

The Great Transformation (Cornish, 2005) can be defined as

the “current metamorphosis of human life as we now know it, and

we can add that it affects not only humans everywhere but also

the natural world around us” (p. 9). In this age of rapid and

constant change, it is crucial to have an understanding of

trends, how to analyze them, and their future implications. The

interconnected nature of these trends characterizes the Great

Transformation.

The first supertrend discussed by Cornish (2005) is

technological progress. This progress can be traced back to the

dawn of civilization, with the use of tools. Cornish (2005) sees

this trend as paramount in comparison to the others, and goes so

far as to say that it is not merely a supertrend, but additionally

it is a superforce (p. 22). This is because it generates change on

a huge scale, while also giving life to other supertrends, or

agents of change. Arguably, technology is the most important

supertrend because of its potential to create social change.

Human progress could benefit from technological progress in many

ways, and yet, technology is not meeting the needs of those it

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should serve. Information and Communication Technology (ICT) is

an example of where technology is falling short of human

progress. “Structural relationships in societies

and between them have remained the same and they might be getting

worse. This is the reason why the expansion in connectivity has

not improved the reality in which we live, nor the mood of the

people around the world” (Radovan, 2013). ICT is meant to connect

people, and it does, but there is a dark side to connectivity.

The use and marketing of information technology does not foster

knowledge of how or why the technology works, and this is highly

problematic.

Cornish (2005) states that economic growth is “the most

obvious supertrend produced by technological progress” (p. 22).

This is due to the fact that technological advancements hold the

potential to improve the efficiency and quality of life.

Merchandises and amenities could be produced at a lower cost, and

higher quality because of new technologies, and this is why there

is such a high demand. This “techno-economic growth” (Cornish,

2005) has ramped up the rate at which life is transforming, and

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this is set to continue increasing exponentially. “Growth

continues in the twenty first century, though the rate of growth

is often viewed as unsatisfactory because it remains inadequate

for the world’s needs, let alone its greeds” (p. 24).

Environmental decline is the final supertrend to be

discussed. It is the result of over-population, and economic

growth (Cornish, p.27). Climate change, or global warming, is a

scientific fact, however it is treated as a myth by right wing

politicians, and skeptics with religious ideological strategies.

The International panel on Climate Change (IPCC) recently

reported, “warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and

since the 1950’s, many of the observed changes are unprecedented

over decades to millennia” (IPCC, 2013, pg. 3). Despite

scientific proof that climate change is the direct result of

human action, humans are also failing to act to stop it. Numerous

reports have been released in late 2013 regarding the fact that

it might already be too late to stop a global catastrophe. The

ever increasing demand for petroleum, the declining supply of

freshwater globally, over-fished oceans, and the extinction of

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countless animal and plant species are some of the other major

concerns besides global warming (Cornish, 2005, p. 27).

Futurists such as Edward Cornish believe that in order to

understand where humanity is headed, the employment of

supertrends is a reliable methodology for creating an image of

what life on Earth might be like. This scenario is based on the

assumption that things will continue on into the future the way

that they are going today; that those who have the power to

change the world will either choose to do nothing, or be

powerless to act regardless. Supertrends are likely to change,

particularly because of how they are interconnected. Improving

health, increasing mobility, and increasing deculturation round

out the other three supertrends to make six in total. These six

trends work separately, and together to create the landscape of

modern life. Cornish insists that “trends are not forces of

destiny; they can and do change” (p. 36). This means that

although there are some bleak visions of the future, all is not

lost. At least, not yet. The potential for humankind’s survival

is still tangible, and the prognosis for the future does not have

to be Armageddon, or doomsday. The main tool to avert total

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destruction is knowledge. “Ignorance is the soil on which all

sorts of radical and extreme attitudes can be successfully

cultivated, spread, and practiced” (Radovan, 2013). In order for

society to be informed about its choices, political policies must

change in order to empower the people, and work away from

capitalism as it is known today, and toward social democracy.

The Documentaries

Now that the relevant supertrends have been defined, it is

possible to analyze and synthesize the three documentaries

selected for this essay.

Meltdown: The Secret History of the Global Financial Collapse

The Canadian Broadcasting Corporation’s documentary,

“Meltdown” (Doczone, 2010), is an exploration into the causes

behind the global economic collapse of 2008. The main takeaway

was that Alan Greenspan, the former head of the Federal Reserve,

had made a grievous error in judgment when he assumed that free

markets would self-regulate. In reality, the housing boom of

2005, and credit lending to risky consumers led to the bursting

of the bubble. This set off a chain of events, which caused

catastrophic consequences to the global economy. It seems on the

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surface preposterous that a miscalculation regarding the greed of

men could result in a breakdown of economic power worldwide, but

that is precisely what occurred.

Edward Cornish (2005) describes the international financial

crisis of the early 1930’s, in an effort to show how society can

learn from the past in order to predict the future.

“Globalization, telecommunications, and the Internet now have

linked financial systems to each other more closely than ever.

This may make the world more subject to a chain reaction of bank

and business failures that leaves little economic strength

anywhere” (Pg. 117). This interconnectivity of global markets is

a direct result of techno-economic growth; the supertrend power

couple. Technology connects and entwines economic systems

together, but it does not serve to inform them of impending

disaster.

In terms of economic growth, the financial crisis can be

seen as a direct result of the failure of the capitalist system.

Costas Panayotakis (2010) stated, “in short, far from seeing the

rise of a global social democratic movement capable of

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ameliorating the economic and ecological crises befalling

humanity and the planet, we are seeing an ever-stronger

determination on the part of capitalist elites to continue with

business as usual” (p. 2)”. The inaction of the United States

government to regulate Wall Street and bring those who

participated in illegal lending practices to risky borrowers to

justice compounds this fact. In 2013, few of the participants who

began the domino effect that resulted in the global financial

meltdown have yet to be charged, or tried for their crimes.

Wealth that was earned and invested by millions of Americans for

retirement has vanished. Where did it go? It still exists

somewhere, but it has changed hands and is now the property of a

person or a group of people that it does not belong to. This is

grand theft, capitalist style. The supertrends of technology and

economic growth convey how flawed the system truly is, and the

projections for the future are not positive if trading practices

continue to go unregulated.

Visions of the Future: The Intelligence Revolution

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The next documentary to be analyzed is BBC Four’s “Visions of

the Future” (Panic, 2007). This film was narrated by theoretical

physicist, professor, and futurist Michio Kaku, and describes how

technology is guiding, and shaping the future of humankind.

Clearly, Visions of the Future directly relates to the supertrend of

technological progress. One example of this is the discussion of

biotechnology in the program. Cornish states that “the most

important applications [for biotechnology] lie in it’s potential

for enhancing the physical, mental, and emotional capabilities

for humans themselves” (pg. 19). Ray Kurzweil, futurist,

inventor, and current director of engineering at Google, has come

up with a concept called “the singularity”. Kurzweil defines this

as "... a future period during which the pace of technological

change will be so rapid, its impact so deep, that human life will

be irreversibly transformed” (Kurzweil, 2005). This “singularity”

will be a merging of man and machine, to create a “transhuman”

race. Cornish’s (2005) concept of The Great Transformation can be

applied to the concepts presented in this documentary, as the

human body itself, both internally and externally, has been

forecasted to change along with the world outside it. Kurzweil’s

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work at Google has brought out “Google Glass”, which is

essentially a cybernetic set of eyes; glasses that have a camera,

and computer screen built in.

“The Transhumanist Movement articulates a vision of

transcending – going beyond our current limitations as biological

humans. One way to do that is to reprogram our biology, and that

process, called biotechnology, is well underway and will reach

its mature phase in one to two decades” (Kurzweil, 2013). This

might seem impossible, but the scientific community are

discussing this in a serious tone. Beyond the concept of the

singularity, or transhumanism, the future as seen through the

lens of technological progress is one whose fate depends on the

choices made by policymakers. Fei-Yue Wang (2012) suggests that

“even in the absence of a technological singularity, we have to

find a way to avoid [a] proposed technological catastrophe. The

difficulty lies in the fact that this is not a purely technical

problem; it is a political problem— more precisely, a societal,

human problem” (p.3). Kurzweil (2013) recently said in an

interview that although his technological ideology is consistent

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with that of “transhumanism”, he feel that the term is not

completely accurate. “My views are certainly consistent with the

Trans- humanist movement. My only hesitation is that I don’t like

the term Transhumanism because it implies that we will transcend

our humanity. The way I articulate this is that we will remain

human but transcend our biological limitations” (p. 6).

The supertrend of economic growth pushes technology forward,

and this is set to continue. One issue that threatens

technological progress is the final supertrend in this analysis;

environmental decline. The development of technologies creates

pollution and waste. It also creates a deepening “digital

divide”, which is characterized by only the wealthiest people

having access to technology, while those who cannot afford it are

left without it. This could be a global cultural catastrophe.

Conversely, technology could help societies communicate more

efficiently, and help to support social progress. “It seems that

technological and functional uni cation of the world incites fi

cooperation and creates a sense of mutual connectedness of all

people. There surely are such tendencies, but the process of

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bringing humanity together in constructive cooperation is slow

and it is often hindered by power-holders who purposely separate

their communities from others and who seek excuses for aggressive

behavior toward others” (Radovan, 2013, p. 305). It becomes very

clear that the capitalistic ideology of corporate greed fuels the

constant outflow of new technologies at a dizzying rate. Special

attention should be taken to assure that all people have access

to information technology. This is a challenge, as capitalism

thrives upon profit, and the socially democratic ideology of

equality does not support the capitalist ethos. “Although

technological innovation is presupposed of social justice, in

globalized capitalist societies, effective application of

principles of equality reduces the profit incentives for

technological innovation” (Papaioannou, 2011).

The 11th Hour

Hollywood star Leonardo DiCaprio’s documentary, The 11th

Hour (Conners & DiCaprio, 2007), is a feature length film

which is a series of interviews with various climate

scientists, physicists, global cultural leaders, and seeks

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to create a dialogue about the impending global

environmental catastrophe. It is a warning that human

progress is actually killing the planet. The supertrends of

technological progress, and economic growth have given birth

to the supertrend of economic decline, and The 11th Hour

supports this fact. As human progress ultimately destroys

nature, human progress will destroy itself. The basis of all

life in the known universe exists on Earth.

It is apparent within the scientific community that

national and international policymakers are those who hold

the key to slowing or halting climate change, but this is

not happening quickly enough, and this is one main theme of

this documentary. Joel Wainright (2010) suggests that,

“although this growing attention to social processes and

political advocacy has generated much discussion among

climate scientists, it has received relatively little

scholarly attention. Such consideration is overdue” (p.

984). The global financial crisis is also linked to the

global climate crisis, as capitalism continually commodifies

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natural resources for its own means in order to grow. Could

capitalism be killing the earth? François Houtart (2010)

states, “According to a report prepared for the British

Government in 2007 by Nicholas Stern (2006) of the World

Bank, we can, if nothing is done, expect between 150 and 200

million climate migrants by mid-century, i.e. people who

will no longer be able to live where they live now” (p. 12).

People will be displaced from their homes, and this will

change the cultural geography of the world. The changes

which must be made by corporate industries will be

expensive, and this is not considered favorable. The

capitalist ideology is one which does not consider nature as

the precious, fragile, and limited resource that it is.

Houtart (2010) adds, “this too is the fruit of the same

logic: considering nature as a resource for capitalist

growth, and refusing to integrate into the balance sheet the

externalities of the productive system” (p. 12).

Conclusion

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Through the lens of Edward Cornish’s (2005)

supertrends, the interrelated elements of Meltdown

(Doczone,2010), Visions of the Future (Panic, 2007), and The 11th

Hour (Conners & DiCaprio, 2007) crystallize, and illuminate

the fact that the underlying cause of the social issues in

each film are undoubtedly the result of rampant capitalism.

The global economic crisis, and the climate crisis share

many similarities (Leichenko, et al., 2010). Technological

progress, which is the main feature of Visions of the Future

(2007), is in danger of being stunted or completely halted

because of the economic and climate crises. Moreover,

technology is not succeeding in making people smarter, but

is actually alienating its consumers. The problem with the

global economy is that there are only a small number of

corporate powers in the world who hold all of the economic

power. This is the result of globalization. “Within a

capitalist economy, inequalities in wealth and power make it

difficult to build coalitions around shared sacri ce. fi

Inequality also entrenches the capacity of the wealthy—who

bene t disproportionately from economic growth—to prevent fi

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the conversion of our carbon-intensive economy into a more

sustainable alternative” (Wainright, 2010). Globalization is

here to stay; social democracy must change in order to

accommodate trade, and capitalism must be altered or

destroyed completely in order to allow the implementation of

environmental policymaking that brings an end to the

impending climate, and economic global disasters facing

humanity. “This places social democracy and the mainstream

Left in a paradoxical position. Having accepted capitalism,

they cannot ground their political identity on a rejection

of that system. Thus, the only way they can establish a

political raison d’être for themselves is by posing as

purveyors of a “good” capitalism that is to be distinguished

from the “bad” (or ersatz) capitalism of their opponents”

(Panayotakis, 2010). Therefore, the answer might not be to

do away with capitalism, but to adapt it to the needs of the

citizens of the world, and create a social democracy. In

this age of Great Transformation, there is a sense that a

social revolution is coming.

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