Post on 09-Jan-2023
zurab Jvanias saxelobis saqarTvelos
sazogadoebriv saqmeTa institutisamarTlisa da politikis skolis saerTaSoriso
politikis samagistro programa
ruseTis samxedro Zala
iluzia da realoba
(sadiplomo naSromi)
studenti:
tato kvamlaZe
xelmZRvaneli:
daviT TevzaZe
Tbilisi
2010
daviT TevzaZe – aibi evro-kavkasiuri universitetis sruli
profesori,
reqtoris moadgile, universitetis strategiuli
Sefasebisa da marTvis problemaTa institutis
prgoramebis samecniero xelmZRvaneli,
saerTaSoriso urTierTobaTa da erovnuli
usafrTxoebis akademiuri programebis lideri,
samxedro wodeba – general-leitenanti
guliTad madlobas vuxdi im adaminaebs,
romlebmac gamiwies daxmareba aRniSnul
sadiplomo naSromis daweraSi:
kote laSxia;
TamTa bokuCava;
Tako geldiaSvili;
Tamuna sifraSvili;
naTia bokuCava.
0
sarCevi
anotacia 2
1 Sesavali 31.2 kvlevis mizani 31.3 kvlevis SekiTxva 31.4 kvlevis hipoteza 31.5 kvlevis meTodologia da naSromis dizaini 41.6 literaturis mimoxilva 4
2 erovnuli saxelmwifo saerTaSoriso sistemaSi 62.1 erovnuli interesebi 8
2.1.1 uzenaesi interesebi2.1.2 sasicocxlo interesebi2.1.3 strategiuli interesebi2.1.4 taqtikuri interesebi
2.2 erovnuli Zala 112.2.1 politikuri Zala 2.2.2 kulturuli Zala 2.2.3 samxedro Zala
2.3 erovnuli usafrTxoeba 132.4 samxedro strategia 172.5 samxedro mSenebloba 182.6 birTvuli iaraRi 202.7 safrTxeebi 212.8 samxedro strategia – dokumenti 212.9 samxedro doqtrina 23
3 SedarebiTi analizi – iluzia3.1 ruseTis erovnuli usafrTxoeba 253.2 ruseTis erovnuli interesebi 263.3 ruseTis samxedro politika 27
3.3.1 samxedro usafrTxoeba3.3.2 samxedro mowyoba
3.4 samxedro doqtrina post sabWoTa periodSi 283.4.1 elcinis era3.4.2 putinis era3.4.3 medvedevis era
4 analizi - realoba 4.1 ruseTis SeiaraRebuli Zalebi dRes 344.2 ruseTis sazRvrebi 374.3 birTvuli safrTxe 38
5 daskvna 40
bibliografia 43
danarTebi i - v
ruseTis samxedro Zala tato kvamlaZe
saqarTvelos sazogadoebriv saqmeTa instituti 1
`yvela imis mizani, visac ki odesme omi dauwyia,
yovelTvis imaSi mdgomareobda, rom Tavad
gamdidrebuliyvnen, xolo mteri ufro gaeRaribebinaT.
sxva arafrisTvis ar sWirdebaT gamarjveba, xolo
mosaxveWeli ki imitom undaT, rom kidev ufro
gazardon Tavisi Zala da daasuston mowinaaRmdege.
aqedan gamomdinareobs, rom yovelTvis, roca
gamarjvebam ufro Raribi gagxada, vidre manamde iyavi,
xolo dapyrobebma dagasusta, maSin Sen an gascdi im
miznis sazRvrebs, risTvisac omi daiwye, an ver
miaRwie mas~1
nikolo makiaveli
1 makiaveli, nikolo – mTavari, mTarg. baCana bregvaZe, gamomcemloba `sabWoTa
saqarTvelo~; Tbilisi, 1984. gv 97
ruseTis samxedro Zala tato kvamlaZe
saqarTvelos sazogadoebriv saqmeTa instituti 2
anotacia
2008 wlis `agvistos omis~ Semdeg aqtualuri gaxda ruseTis samxedro
SesaZleblobebisa da misi strategiis ganxilva qarTul sazogadoebaSi.
aRniSnuli sadiplomo naSromic gankuTvnilia ruseTis samxedro
SesaZleblobaze da mis startegiis ganxilvaze. pirvel TavSi axsnilia
saxelmwifos legitimuri arseboba da misi marTva. aseve, Tu ra
procedurebi aris gasavleli saxelmwifos Zlier qveynad
CamoyalibebisaTvis da ra rols asrulebs samxedro strategia qveynis
erovnuli interesebis ganxorcielebaSi. meore TavSi aRwerilia
ruseTis samxedro doqtrinebi sabWoTa kavSiris daSlidan 2008 wlis
`agvistos omamde~. xolo, Semdeg TavSi ganxilulia ruseTis
SeiaraRebuli Zalebis SesaZleblobani DdRes. Tu ra pirobebSi
cxovrobs da moRvaweobs ruseTis federaciis SeiaraRebuli Zalebis
piradi Semadgenloba, aseve misi SeiaraRebisa da teqnikis
qmediTuanrianoba.
ruseTis samxedro Zala tato kvamlaZe
saqarTvelos sazogadoebriv saqmeTa instituti 3
1 Sesavali
1.2 kvlevis mizani
sadiplomo naSromis mizania im samxedro transformaciis analizi,
romelic ruseTis federaciam ganaxorciela, sabWoTa kavSiris daSlis
Semdeg, sakuTari SeiaraRebuli Zalebis formirebis procesSi.
1.3 kvlevis SekiTxva
ruseTi iTvleba iseT saxelmwifod, romlis azric gasaTvaliswinebelia
saerTaSoriso mSvidobisa da usafrTxoebis ganmtkicebis
uzrunvelsayofad; magram, rac dro gadis miT ufro sustdeba ruseTis
samxedro SesaZleblobebi. Cndeba kiTxva _ Seswevs Tu ara ruseTs imis
unari, rom aRasrulos Tavisi samxedro doqtriniT gawerili qmedebebi
sakuTari interesebis dasacavad? ufro konkretulad, im sagareo
politikis uzrunvelsayofad, romlis ganxorcielebac surs msoflios
masStabiT?
1.4 kvlevis hipoTeza
ruseTis SeiaraRebuli Zalebis SesaZleblobebis ganxilva saSualebas
gvaZlevs davaskvnaT, rom ruseTi aRar warmoadgens iseT zesaxelmwifos,
romelsac SeuZlia globaluri sakiTxebi iaraRis ZaliT gadaWras.
Tanamedrove msoflioSi igi aRar ganixileba imdagvar safrTxed,
rogorsac warmoadgenda sabWoTa kavSiri civi omis dros.
dResdReisobiT ruseTi aris mxolod seriozuli regionuli Zala,
romelic evropasa da azias Sorisaa gadaWimuli.
1.5 kvlevis meTodologia da naSromis dizaini
sadiplomo naSromi warmoadgens konkretul sociologiur kvlevas da
ZiriTad meTodologiad gamoyenebulia Tvisobrivi kvelva, sadac
monacemTa Segrovebisa da analizis procesSi mniSvneloba eniWeba
informaciis moZiebis teqnikas. Tvisobrivi kvleva moicavs midgomaTa
mTel rigs. amgvari kvleva xSirad koncentrirdeba erT konkretul
SemTxvevis garSemo da axdens gansaxilveli movlenis siRrmiseul
ruseTis samxedro Zala tato kvamlaZe
saqarTvelos sazogadoebriv saqmeTa instituti 4
analizs, e.w. Case Study. Tvisobrivi kvelvis strategiisTvis
damaxasaiTebelia interpretivizmi2.
garda empiriuli ganxilvisa, naSromSi aseve eyrdnoba meoradi
monacemebis analizs: sadiplomo Temis problematikaze arsebuli
samxedro literaturis Seswavlasa da arsebuli samxedro strategiebis
analizs.
Sedegad, naSromi moicavs: Sesavals, sam Tavsa da daskvnas. pirvel TavSi
axsnilia saxelmwifos legitimuri arsebobis mniSvneloba da misi
marTva. aseve, Tu ra safexurebi aris gasavleli saxelmwifo rom Zlier
qveynad Camoyalibdes da ra rols asrulebs samxedro strategia qveynis
erovnuli interesebis ganxorcielebaSi. meore TavSi aRwerilia
ruseTis samxedro doqtrinebi sabWoTa kavSiris daSlidan 2008 wlis
`agvistos omamde~, xolo bolo TavSi, ganxilulia ruseTis
SeiaraRebuli Zalebis drevandeli SesaZleblobani.
1.6. literaturis mimoxliva
sadiplomo naSromze muSaobisas gamoyenebuli literatura moicavs:
samxedro saxelmZRvaneloebs, samecniero publikaciebsa da
monografiebs, normatiul aqtebs, oficialuri iuriduli da samxedro
saxis dokumentebs, analitikur statiebs, internetSi ganTavsebuli
samecniero xasiaTis masalas, statistikur monacemebs. kvelvis ZiriTadi
nawili eyrdnoba sam monografias, esenia:
Cas frimanis wigni `Zalauflebis xelovneba~, sadac aRwerilia
saxelmwifos marTva da misi erovnuli interesebis ganxorcieleba;
viliamson miurei - `strategiis Seqmna~. aq avtori saubrobs
strategiis mniSvnelobaze, mis warmarTvaze da saxelmwifosTvis
sasurveli politikis dasaxvaze;
kolin grei – `Tanamedrove strategia~, sadac ganixilulia
Tanamedrove realobaSi moqmedi erovnuli startegiebis praqtika
da Teoria.
2 Bryman, Alan - Social Research Methods 2nd ed; 2003. pg. 19-24
ruseTis samxedro Zala tato kvamlaZe
saqarTvelos sazogadoebriv saqmeTa instituti 5
2 erovnuli saxelmwifo saerTaSoriso sistemaSi
“politikuri mizani aris omis mTavari motivi. igi Seqmnilia mTavari
ganmsazRvreli samxedro miznebis miRwevisaTvis da aseve im ZalebisTvis,
romlebic saWiroa am miznebis misaRwevad”.
karl fon klauzevici
Tanamedrove msoflio wesrigi didad ar gansxvavdeba imisgan, rac iyo
mravali saukunis win. aRsaniSnavia, rom antikur xanaSi berZnul
polisebSi damkvidrebul demokratiasac emuqreboda safrTxe sxva
polisebisa an saxelmwifoebisagan, romlebTaTvisac totalitarizmi da
oligarqia ufro miRebul wyobad miiCneoda. saxelmwifoebi, imperiebi,
regionaluri kavSirebi erTiandebodnen saerTo safrTxis winaSe,
romelic emuqreboda maT erovnul interesebs; magram, aRniSnuli
problemis daZlevisa da maTi gaZlierebis Semdeg, wina planze
gadadioda erovnuli interesebi da aqedan gamomdinare, isini ukve
safrTxes warmoadgendnen erTmaneTisTvis; Tumca, rac yvelaze
mniSvnelovania, yovelTvis daculi iyo wonasworobis principi. erTi
saxelmwifo an imperia, romelic miaRwevda ganviTarebis piks, ukve
iwyebda ngrevas da ukusvlas, radgan mis siZlieres veRaravin egueboda
da erTiandebodnen mis winaaRmdeg. amas Cven vxedavT istoriaSi:
aleqsandre makedonelis uzarmazari imperiis daSla, romis imperiis
aRzeveba da daqucmaceba, Cingis xanis mier naSenebi monRolebis imperia,
espaneTi Tavisi Zlieri flotiT, napoleonis safrangeTi, inglisi,
nacisturi Ggermania da bolos _ sabWoTa kavSiri. siaxleebi,
gansakuTrebiT politikur sferoebSi, arastabilurobis sawindaria.
istoriulad imperia unda iyos statikuri, Tumca ZalTa balansis
sistemac arastabilurobiT xaisaTdeba. mudam arsebuli riski gaxda
sistemis rRvevis mizezi. teqnologiurma cvlilebebma omis Rirebuleba
warmoudgenlad gazarda. samoqalaqo sazogadoebisa da demokratiis
ganviTarebam SeuZlebeli gaxada amoraluri azrovneba, romelic
aucilebeli iyo ZalTa balansis sistemis funqcionirebisaTvis.
miuxedavad amisa, realuri alternativis ar arsebobis gamo, igi dRemde
SemorCa; xolo 1945 wlis Semdeg warmoqmnili sistema ufro Zvelis
ruseTis samxedro Zala tato kvamlaZe
saqarTvelos sazogadoebriv saqmeTa instituti 6
kulminaciaa, vidre raime axali. evropaSi arsebuli mravalmxrivi ZalTa
balansi msoflio teroris ormxriv ZalTa balansad iqca. Tumca es ar
iyo grZelvadian perspeqtivaze gaTvlili sistema. ZalTa balansi ver
ergeba meoce saukunis bolosTvis damaxasiaTebel moralistur
suliskveTebas. gauTavebeli omebis fonze saerTaSoriso urTierTobebi
evropul saxelmwifeobs Soris wonasworobis principis damkvidrebam
daaregulira. ramdenad samarTliani iyo es regulacia _ sxva sakiTxia3.
(politikaSi samarTlianobaze msjeloba, miT umetes, sagareo
urTierTobebSi, saerTod uadgiloa). XX sauknis meore naxevari iyo ara
marto ZalTa balansis, aramed imperiuli mizanswrafulobis
aRsasrulic. garkveul etapze es ori erTad moiazreba. imperiaTa
umravlesoba daiSala: osmaleTi, germania, avstria, safrangeTi,
britaneTi da sabWoTa kavSiri axla mxolod istoriis nawilia.
Mmocemul situaciaSi saxeze gvaqvs qveynis ori axali tipi: pirveli es
aris axlandeli qveynebi _ xSirad yofili koloniebi _ sadac qveyanam
arseboba TiTqmis Sewyvita da warmoadgens premodernistul zonas,
sadac jer kidev aqtualuria hobsiseuli `yvelas omi yvelas
winaaRmdeg~; meore, es aris yofili imperiebi (postmodernistuli
qveynebi), romelTaTvisac usafrTxoeba gamarjvebiT aRar ganisazRvreba;
Mmesame, dResac arseboben tradiciuli, amave dros `Tanamedrove~
qveynebi, romlebic misdeven makiavelis principebs da raison d’état
(iseTi qveynebi, rogoricaa mag: indoeTi, pakistani da CineTi).
postmodernistul msoflioSi aRar aris safrTxe misi tradiciuli
gagebiT. SeiZleba iTqvas, rom qveynebi ar iWrebian erTmaneTis
teritoriaze da arc intervencias axorcieleben. maSin, rodesac
modernistul samyaroSi, klauzevicis mixedviT, omi iyo polotikis
instrumenti, xolo postmodernistul msoflioSi omi qveynis
warumateblobis niSania da qveynebi saSiSroebas erTmaneTisaTvis aRar
warmoadgenen. orive _ modernistuli da premodernistuli zonebi _
realuri safrTxea. ufro nacnobia safrTxe, romelic modernistuli
msofliodan modis. es aris qveynis klasikuri sistema, romlisganac
postmodernistuli msoflio cota xnis win ganTavisuflda. igi
ucvleli rCeba da agrZelebs imperiis da erovnuli interesebis
3 Sengelia, oTar - evropuli `wonasworoba~, strategiuli kvlevebi #3;
Tbilisi, 2010. gv 89-113
ruseTis samxedro Zala tato kvamlaZe
saqarTvelos sazogadoebriv saqmeTa instituti 7
principebidan gamomdinare moqmedebas. Tu aris stabiluroba, is
agresiuli Zalebis balansiT iqneba miRweuli. aRsaniSnavia, Tu ramdenad
cotaa iseTi adgili, sadac ar aris amgvari balansi da ramdenad
aqtualuria zogierT regionSi atomuri elementis arsebobis sakiTxi.
msoflios ramodenime mTavari cvlilebis gaerTianeba – ara Tukidides
droindelis, aramed ukanaskneli aTwleulis – gvaZlevs safuZvels,
raTa avagoT axali saxis saerTaSoriso wesrigi.
msoflio omis dasasruliT miRebuli wesrigis reformirebis
SesaZlebloba, bipolaruli mtrobisa da arastabilurobis dasasruli,
saerTaSoriso organizaciebisaTvis axali gamowvevebi, sivrce farTo
speqtris mqone SeTanxmebebSi samoqmedod da ara erTpirovnuli
diqtatura, demokratiuli normebisa da institutebis gavrceleba – es
yvelaferi erTad aRebuli gviqmnis am axal SesaZleblobas4.
2.1 erovnuli interesebi
politikis sxeuls qmnis saxelmwifoTa erTianoba, romelic gamoixateba
mTavrobebis mier garkveul teritoriaTa marTviT. saxelmwifos
daarsebis mizania konkretuli sazogadoebrivi interesebisa da
miswrafebebis dacva, xolo mTavroba arsebobs, raTa dadasturdes
xalxis suverenuli damoukidebloba, uzrunvelyos maTi keTildReoba
da mSvidoba. am yvelafris misaRwevad aucilebelia pirvel rigSi
davisaxoT mizani, romelsac warmoadgens erovnuli interesebi. igi aris
urTierTobis saxe, romelsac konkretuli mTavroba aRwevs, raTa
sakuTari miznebis ganxorcieleba SeaTavsos sxva saxelmwifos
SesaZleblobebsa da ZalauflebasTan. saxelmwifos erovnuli
interesebi warmoadgens mmarTvelobis ierarqias, romlis meSveobiTac
uwevT sakuTari gadawyvetilebebisa da moqmedebebis saerTaSoriso
arenaze gatana. xalxis norma dgindeba maTi erovnuli kulturiTa da
identurobiT. isini qmnian erovnuli faseulobebis kanons, romelTa
msajuli mxolod eria da mxolod igi wyvets ra aris swori da ra ara,
ra aris miRebuli da ra miuRebeli. sazogadoebis Rirebulebebi maT
erovnul ideologiaSi gamoixateba. es ideologia qmnis maT
saerTaSoriso miswrafebebs da STaagonebs sakuTari qveynis erovnuli
4 Russett, Bruce M. – Grasping the Democratic Peace: principles for a post-Cold War
world, Princeton University Press; New Jersay, 1992. pg 56
ruseTis samxedro Zala tato kvamlaZe
saqarTvelos sazogadoebriv saqmeTa instituti 8
interesebis xelSewyobasa da dacvas. ideologiisa da interesebis
erToblioba warmoqmnis erovnul interesebs. isini axdenen erovnuli
yuradRebis fokusirebasa da mxardaWeras. ideologiiT damuxtuli
sakiTxebi aRvivebs emociebs da acocxlebs erovnul nebas, Tumca Tavis
mxriv aseTi sakiTxebi adgenen, Tu rogori mgznebareba eqneba maT
ganxilvas. aqedan gamomdinare, saxelmwifo moxeleebi unda iSveliebdnen
am damuxtul sakiTxebs, raTa STaagonon erovnuli interesebi,
romelTac SeuZliaT gaamyaron qveynis ganviTarebisa da dacvisken
mimarTuli politika. sakiTxebi gansxvavdeba insteresebisagan, Tumca
Sinagani harmoniisa da keTildReobisaTvis Zalian mniSvnelovania
qveynis erTguleba misi sakiTxebisadmi, romelic swor yofaqcevaSi
gamoixateba, xolo Sinagani harmoniisa da keTildReobis SenarCuneba
nebismieri saxelmwifos erovnuli interesia.5
2.1.1 uzenaesi interesebi
saxelmwifosa da misi warmomSobi wyobilebis gadarCena upirveles
interess unda warmoadgendes da aqedan gamomdinare, saxelmwifo
nebismieri xerxiT da nebismieri interesis fasad unda Seecados daicvas
sakuTari damoukidebloba. saxelmwifosaTvis TviTgadarCena aris misi
uzenaesi erovnuli interesi da misi xelyofa iwvevs oms.6
2.1.2 sasicocxlo interesebi
zogierTi sakiTxi da cvlileba ar emuqreba saxelmwifos gadarCenas,
magram, miuxedavad amisa, isini SeiZleba Seexon sasicocxlo interesebs:
usafrTxoebas, keTildReobas da mSvidobas. gansazRvreba `sasisocxlo~
niSnavs, rom is moicavs im xalxis umniSvnelovanes miznebs, vinc daaarsa
da Seqmna saxelmwifo. sakuTari sasicocxlo interesebis dasacavad
saxelmwifo gawiravs bevr naklebad mniSvnelovan interess da im
SemTxvevaSi, Tu CaTvlis, rom es ar avnebs uzenaes interess –
gadarCenas, didi zaralis miuxedavad igi SeiZleba omis saSiSroebis
winaSec aRmoCndes. sasicocxlo interesad aseve SeiZleba CaiTvalos:
usafrTxo sazRvrebSi erovnuli erTianobis dacva, strategiuli
5 Freeman, Chas W. JR - Arts of Power: Stratecraft and Diplomacy, US Institute of Peace;
Washington DC, 2005. pg. 126 ibid - pg. 9
ruseTis samxedro Zala tato kvamlaZe
saqarTvelos sazogadoebriv saqmeTa instituti 9
upiratesobis uzrunvelyofa da potenciuri mtris upiratesobis
daqveiTeba, erovnuli siZlierisa da keTildReobis resursebisadmi
potenciuri agresorebis ar daSveba, imuniteti, diversiuli aqtivobisgan
Tavisufleba da Sida saqmeebSi Caurevloba. sasicocxlo interesebis
mimarT safrTxeebis arsebobisas, saxelmwifos gauZneldeba dacva da
aRniSnul sakiTxSi progresis misaRwevad igi Seecdeba orive –
samxedro da diplomatiuri gziT upiratesobis xelSi Cagdebas. es aris
ZiriTadi STagoneba saxelmwifos arsebobisa.7
2.1.3 strategiuli interesebi
strategiuli interesi gamomdinareobs im sakiTxebisa da cvlilebebidan,
romlebic ar moqmedeben keTildReobasa da mSvidobaze; Sesabamisad, ar
moiTxoven dauyonebliv gadawyvetilebebs saxelmwifos mxridan
usafrTxoebis uzrunvelsayofad, magram maTdami uyuradRebobis
SemTxvevaSi isini pirdapir zemoqmedeben am sasicocxlo interesebze, an
maTi dacvisunarianobaze. saxelmwifos ganviTarebis SemTxvevaSi, misi
politika da urTierTobebi unda moergos mimdinare strategiuli
tendenciebis gadawyvetas da unda miiswrafodes am tendenciebis
udidesi upiratesobis an naklovanebisaken. moTxovnileba aris
saxelmwifos strategiuli interesi. aseTi strategiuli interesebi
unda gamomdinareobdes mowinaaRmdegis an mokavSiris dasustebidan an
gaZlierebidan, saerTaSoriso arenaze Tanasworobis cvlilebebisa da
gavlenis sferoebidan, resursebis mopovebisa da axali teqnologiebis
Seqmnidan, saerTaSoriso saxelmwifo wyobis sistemaSi cvlilebebisa da
maT farglebSi maregulirebeli reJimebidan, ekonomikuri ganviTarebis
da vaWrobis axali modelebis gamoCenisa da aseve, axali doqtrinebisa
da ideologiebis Seqmnisagan, moqalaqeebis da maTi sakuTrebis
statusisa da maTdami mopyrobis axali gamowvevebidan. saxelmwifos
strategiuli interesebi SeiZleba CaiTvalos saerTaSoriso wesrigis
mxardaWerasa da saxelmwifo sistemisa da misi damoukideblobisadmi
pativiscemaSi, mis SesaZleblobaSi iTanamSromlos sxva
saxelmwifoebTan saerTo interesis matarebeli sakiTxebis gadaWraSi an
7 Freeman, Chas W. JR - Arts of Power: Stratecraft and Diplomacy, US Institute of Peace;
Washington DC, 2005. pg. 10
ruseTis samxedro Zala tato kvamlaZe
saqarTvelos sazogadoebriv saqmeTa instituti 10
sakuTari erovnuli interesebis farTo speqtris efeqturad
xelSewyobasa da maT dacvaSi.8
2.1.4 taqtikuri interesebi
taqtikuri interesi Tavs iCens mTeli rigi aqtivobebidan, romelic
modis saxelmwifosa da mis sazRvrebs gareT myofi Tanamemamuleebis
mxridan. es aqtivobebi moicavs magaliTad: saerTaSoriso an ormxrivi
TanamSromlobis safuZvelze miRebul normaTa uaryofas, vaWrobas,
finansebs, turizms da sxva saxis kerZo warmoebis sferoebSi
ganxorcielebul ama Tu im moqmedebas, sxva qveynebis kanonebis,
dawesebulebebisa da sazRvrebis pativiscemas, saerTaSoriso
satransporto sistemaSi CarTulobas; diplomatTa, samxedroebisa da
saxelmwifo sakuTrebis statuss, mTavrobasa da xalxs Soris
damokidebulebas da urTierTobas an erovnuli Rirsebisa da
suverenitetis pativiscemas. aseTi tipis interesebis dacva warmoadgens
im masalas, romlisganac yoveldRiuri diplomatia aris naqsovi.9
2.2 erovnuli Zala
Zalaufleba aris unari marTo sxvaTa gadawyvetilebani da moqmedebani
romelic miiReba Zalisa da neba-survilisagan. Zala Tavis mxriv modis
resursebis SesaZleblobebSi transformaciisgan, xolo neba-survili –
miznebis gadawyvetilebebTan Serwymaa. strategia aZlierebs
SesaZleblobebs da aiZulebs maT sizusteSi gardasaxvas. saxelmwifos
marTvis xelovneba cdilobs strategiis meSveobiT gazardos
Zalauflebis masa, aqtualoba, biZgi da moudrekeloba. igi
xelmZRvanelobs im gzebiT, romliTac saxelmwifo Slis da iyenebs
sakuTar Zalauflebas10. igi aris mimdinare movlenaTa kontrolis
saSualeba, maT Soris, sxvaTa gadawyvetilebebisa da moqmedebebis. nebis,
potencialisa da Zalis gaerTianeba warmoSobs Zalauflebas.
amavdroulad politikaSi aucilebelia realobis aRqma. diplomatiaSi
sworad aRqmuli Zala aris WeSmariti Zalaufleba, xolo qveynebs Soris
8 Freeman, Chas W. JR - Arts of Power: Stratecraft and Diplomacy, US Institute of Peace;
Washington DC, 2005. pg. 119 ibid - pg. 810 ibid - pg. 3
ruseTis samxedro Zala tato kvamlaZe
saqarTvelos sazogadoebriv saqmeTa instituti 11
am sworad aRqmuli Zalebis balansi wyvets brZolis Sedegebs omis
gareSe. mxolod omSi gamoicdeba da ganisazRvreba WeSmariti balansi
mowinaaRmdegeebs Soris. omis pirobebSic ki, ormxrivi aRqma qmnis
gadawyvetilebebs da aqedan gamomdinare mowinaaRmdegeTa moqmedebebs.
saxelmwifos Zalaufleba izomeba misi SesaZleblobiT Secvalos da
mimarTos sxva saxelmwifoebis qmedebani. es damokidebulia mis nebaze
gamoiyenos sakuTari erovnuli Zalaufleba da potenciali sxvebTan
mimarTebaSi. sakuTari Zalauflebis Sefaseba exmareba saxelmwifos
gadawyvitos, Tu ra donis zewola gamoiyenos sakuTari Tvalsazrisis
dasacavad da ramdenad gariskos misi gadaWarbebisas. miuxedavad amisa,
saxelmwifos potenciali gauwios winaaRmdegoba oponents saboloo
jamSi SeiZleba Semowmdes mxolod da mxolod omSi11.
2.2.1 politikuri Zala
politikuri Zala izomeba SesaZleblobiT daarwmunos sxva
saxelmwifoebi sakuTari saxelmwifo politikis sisworeSi, sakuTari
mizniT gaaerTianos isini da aseve STaagonos isini daeqvemdebaron
sakuTari mizans. es aris Sedegi rogorc nacionaluri
sicocxlisunarianobisa da erTianobis, aseve prestiJis, romelic
warmoiSva kulturuli sxvaobis da ekonomikuri da samxedro
siZlieridan da aRiqmeba potencialad. politikuri Zala izrdeba
koaliciis da nebismieri farTo saerTaSoriso TanamSromlobis
farglebis SemTxvevaSi. mas SeimuSavebs qveynis diplomatiuri da sxva
warmomadgenlobebi. politikuri Zalebi ufro efeqturia, roca maTi
stimulireba xdeba kooperaciisa da TanamSromlobis mier da ara
rogorc damsjelobiTi instrumenti. es yovelive diplomatiis bazisia12.
2.2.2 kulturuli Zala
kultuluri Zala vlindeba eris SesaZleblobaSi STaagonos sxva erebi
sakuTari ideiT, aRafrTovanos miRwevebiT da gamoiyenos sakuTari ena.
kulturuli Zala agebulia sxvadasxva institutebis, xalxsa da
konkretul pirovnebebs Soris pirdapiri kontaqtiT. ekonomikuri Zala
11 Freeman, Chas W. JR - Arts of Power: Stratecraft and Diplomacy, US Institute of Peace;
Washington DC, 2005. pg. 1012 ibid - pg. 11
ruseTis samxedro Zala tato kvamlaZe
saqarTvelos sazogadoebriv saqmeTa instituti 12
izomeba eris finansuri aqtivebiT, saqonlis warmoebiTa da sabazro
SesaZleblobebiT13.
2.2.3 samxedro Zala
samxedro Zala aris erovnuli Zalauflebis yvelaze calsaxa elementi.
is aseve aris yvelaze ZviradRirebuli da uzrunvelyofs yvelaze
uSualo da sastik saSualebebs, romlis meSveobiTac mTavroba SeZlebs
gavlena moaxdinos sxva saxelmwifoebze. samxedro Zala izomeba saomari
gamocdilebiT da unar-CvevebiT, romlebic Tavis mxriv aris
rekrutirebis, wvrTnis, disciplinis, aRWurvilobis, logistikis da
meTaurobis produqti14.
2.3 erovnuli usafrTxoeba
nebismieri qveynis siZliereze metyvelebs is faqti, Tu ramdenad
Zlieria misi Tavdacvisunarianoba, ramdenad Seswevs gare safrTxis
mogeriebis unari minimaluri adamianuri, Tu samoqalaqo
infrastruqturis ganadgurebiT. aRniSnuli SesaZleblobebi
gansazRvrulia saxelmwifos mTavrobis mier strategiuli donis
dokumentebSi. qveynis erovnuli usafrTxoebis SenarCuneba da
uzrunvelyofa akisria mis SeiaraRebul Zalebs, xolo aRniSnuli
institutis politika gawerilia samxedro strategiaSi. qveynis
strategia erovnuli usafrTxoebis hologramis is segmentia, romelic
Tavis TavSi moicavs mTeli saxelmwifoebrivi sistemis suraTs15.
erovnuli usafrTxoebis uzrunvelyofa da dacva, Sida Tu gare
safrTxisagan, aris misi arsebobisa da funqcionirebis kredo. amisTvis
mas esaWiroeba Zlieri politikuri da diplomatiuri korpusi, samxedro
Zala, ekonomikuri mowyoba, sainformacio sivrce da yvela saxis
(adamianuri, materialuri Tu inteleqtualuri) resursi, romelic
warmoadgens saxelmwifos siZlieris erTian `jaWvs~, romlis erTi
rgolis amovardnis Sedegad iSleba mTliani sistema. aRniSnuli
13 Freeman, Chas W. JR - Arts of Power: Stratecraft and Diplomacy, US Institute of Peace;
Washington DC, 2005. pg. 1214 ibid - 16-1715 kaSia, janri - qarTuli kulturis paradigma da gamowvevebi cvalebad
geopolitikur dafaze, strategiuli kvlevebi #2; Tbilisi, 2009. gv. 5-27
ruseTis samxedro Zala tato kvamlaZe
saqarTvelos sazogadoebriv saqmeTa instituti 13
faqtorebis arsebobis Sedegad ukve aucilebelia maTi efeqturad
gamoyeneba, rac SesaZlebelia swori strategiis gamoyenebiT. strategia
gaazrebulia rogorc saxelmwifos mier mis politikur
mizandasaxulobaTa misaRwevad saxelmwifo Zalis instrumentebis
(politikur/diplomatiuri, ekonomikur, samxedro da informaciuli)
koordinirebuli gamoyeneba16. ixileT nax. #1, sadac ganmartebulia
erovnuli interesebisTvis gansaxorcielebeli sqematika da erovnuli
usafrTxoebasTan misi urTierTqmedeba.
naxati # 1: erovnuli interesebis ganxorciebis sqema
yuradReba minda gavamaxvilo saxelmwifos Zalauflebis elementebze,
romlebic warmoadgenen erovnuli usafrTxoebis strategiis
instrumentebs. isini warmodgenilia erovnuli usafrTxoebis
strategiaSi da Tavis mxriv warmoadgens dokuments, romelSic
mocemulia is ZiriTadi saprogramo Tezisebi, romelTa cxovrebaSi
gatareba, e.i. maTi sxvadasxva sferoSi programad qceva, uzrunvelyofs
saxelmwifos usafrTxo arsebobasa da ganviTarebas17.
16 TevzaZe, daviT - momavlis omi globalizaciis WrilSi da saqarTvelos
usafrTxoebis problema, strategiuli kvlevebi #2; Tbilisi, 2009. gv. 37-57
17 mWedliSvili, aleqsandre - erovnuli usafrTxoebis strategiis Seqmnis
principi, strategiuli kvlevebi #2; Tbilisi, 2009. gv. 109-123
ruseTis samxedro Zala tato kvamlaZe
saqarTvelos sazogadoebriv saqmeTa instituti 14
geografiuli elementi – igulisxmeba saxelmwifos ganlageba,
teritoriis sidide, sazRvrebi, klimati da topografia. demografiuli
elementi – igulisxmeba mosaxleobis raodenoba, struqtura, eTnikuri
Semadgenloba, gansaxleba, tendenciebi da a.S. am SemTxvevaSi, qveynis
eTnikuri mravalferovneba iwvevs qveynis regionebSi potenciuri
safrTxis gaRvivebas.
naturaluri resursebi da ekonomikuri elementi – resursi kritikulia
omis warmoebisa da ekonomikuri ganviTarebisaTvis, xolo ekonomika
ufro metad socialur faqtorebzea damokidebuli (mosaxleobis
ganaTlebis done, politikuri sistema, kanonmdebloba da a.S.), vidre
naturalur resursebze. saxelmwifoSi sustad ganviTarebuli ekonomika
qveynis erovnuli usafrTxoebisTvis seriozuli gamowvevaa, vinaidan
mdgradi ganviTarebis gareSe qveynis erovnuli usafrTxoebis gareSe,
qveynis ekonomikis konkurentunarianoba dabali iqneba.
samxedro elementi – samxedro Zliereba istoriulad, erovnuli
Zalauflebis yalibsa da sazoms warmoadgenda. brZolis wageba, rogorc
wesi, erovnuli Zalauflebis seriozul degradacias, xSirad ki
saxelmwifos moSlasac iwvevda; omSi gamarjveba ki seriozuli biZgi
iyo eris Semdgomi gaZlierebisa da aRorZinebisaTvis. saxelmwifos
samxedro SesaZleblobebis ganviTarebas esaWiroeba xangrZlivi da
Sromatevadi muSaoba. SeiaraRebuli Zalebi unda gaxdes ufro mobiluri
da ganaviTaros Tavisi SesaZleblobebi maRali teqnologiiT, raTa mzad
iyos meoTxe Taobis omis warmoebisaTvis, romelic efeqturi iqneba Cveni
qveynis teritoriuli simwiris gaTvaliswinebiT.
politikuri elementi – Zalauflebis es elementi ZiriTadad
ganpirobebulia saxelmwifo mmarTvelobis formiTa da xelisuflebis
unariT gardaqmnas eris potenciuri Zala realur Zalauflebad.
amasTanave mniSvnelovania, Tu rogor afasebs sociumi xelisuflebas, an
rogori unda, rom is iyos. Tu xelisufleba ver airCevs swor
politikas qveynis ganviTarebisTvis, Sedegad miviRebT areul da
daubalansebel strategias urTierTgamomricxavi da konfliqturi
miznebiT. diskusiebi Cvens qveyanaSi erovnuli usafrTxoebis
ruseTis samxedro Zala tato kvamlaZe
saqarTvelos sazogadoebriv saqmeTa instituti 15
problemebis identificirebisa da klasificirebisaTvis aucilebeli
politikuri procesi unda gaxdes. ufro metic, winaswar unda iyos
gansazRvruli da SeTanxmebuli arsebuli diskusiis terminologia,
sazRvrebi da parametrebi.
fsiqologiuri elementi – arsebuli tradiciis Tanaxmad, warmoadgens
erovnuli nebis, moraluri mdgomareobis, erovnuli xasiaTisa da
erovnuli integrirebulobis rTul nakrebs. qveynis sazogadoebaSi ar
aris erTiani neba, erTiani miswrafebebi, radgan sazogadeoba
daqsaqsulia iseT jgufebad, romlebic gansxvavebulad acnobiereben
sakuTar Rirebulebebsa da faseulobebs.
informaciuli elementi – globalizaciis epoqaSi informaciuli veli
da virtualuri sivrce iseTive realobaa, rogorc fizikuri.
komunikaciis amouwuravi SesaZleblobebi da informacia qmnian faqiz
materias. erTiani saxelmwifo sainformacio politikis da misi
ganmaxorcielebeli infrastruqturis sisustem, aseve saxelmwifo
marTvis arasakmaris da arasaTanado informaciaze dafuZnebam SeiZleba
safrTxe Seuqmnas erovnul usafrTxoebas18. informacia yovelTvis
TamaSobda sasicocxlo rols ama Tu im omis msvlelobaSi da
zegavlenas axdenda mis Sedegebze, rogorc dazvervis mopovebis saxiT,
aseve fsiqologiuri operaciebis saxiTac19.
realoba mWidrod aaxloebs strategiul dagegmarebas, ufro did
konteqstSi. politikuri miznebi sakuTar rols TamaSobs da, ra Tqma
unda, TamaSgare ar rCeba arc diplomatiuri, ekonomikuri, Tu samxedro
resursebi. yvela es elementi aSkaraa, magram strategiul azrovnebaze
zegavlenas axdens aseve sxva, ufro faqizi, magram aranakleb
mniSvnelovani elementebi. geografia gvexmareba imis dadgenaSi, Tu sad
aris mocemuli iseTi saxelmwifoebrivi mowyoba, romelSic safrTxis an
potenciuri mowinaaRmdegis agresiis SedarebiT naklebi albaToba
18 saqarTvelos erovnuli usafrTxoebis koncefcia; Tbilisi, 2005 -
http://www.mod.gov.ge/?page=-10&Id=9&lang=019 Metz, Steven & Kievit, James– Strategy and the revolution in military affairs: from theory
to policy, US Army War College; 1995. pp. 4-5
ruseTis samxedro Zala tato kvamlaZe
saqarTvelos sazogadoebriv saqmeTa instituti 16
iarsebebs. istoriuli gamocdileba gviqmnis uaryofiT Sefasebas omisa
da politikis bunebaze da SeuZlia warmoqmnas mougeriebeli
strategiuli mbrZanebloba, xolo ideologia da kultura
gadawyvetilebebis mimRebTa da maTi sociumis gaazrebuli da
gauazrebeli mimarTulebis formaa. safrTxes iwvevs ara marto iseTi
ideologia da kultura, sadac sxvadasxva perspeqtivebi arafris
momcemia, ufro metic, samTavrobo organizaciis bunebam SeiZleba
mkveTrad gansazRvros sofistikacia saxelmwifo strategiis
Sefasebebisa da im siCqaris, romliTac is SeZlebs upasuxos axal
safrTxeebsa da gamowvevebs.20
2.4 samxedro strategia
samxedro strategia uzrunvelyofs samxedro operaciebis
ganxorcielebas. imperiis generalitetis ufrosi da inglis-aSS-is
gaerTianebuli xelmZRvanelobis erT-erTi ufrosi, TiTqmis mTeli meore
msoflio omis dros, fild marSal vikont alanbruki samxedro
strategiis xelovnebas aRwerda Semdegnairad: - raTa miRweul iqnes
politikuri miznidan rigi samxedro miznebisa, unda gansazRvrul iqnes
es miznebi, im samxedro moTxovnebiT, romlebsac isini qmnian da im
winapirobebiT, romelic saWiroa TiToeuli am miznis misaRwevad. unda
ganisazRvros, agreTve, SesaZlo da potenciuri resursebi moTxovnebTan
Sesabamisad, raTa moxdes momdevno prioritetebisa da moqmedebebis
racionaluri kursis gansazRvra. samxedro strategia politikis
dasaxvewad saWiro samxedro miznebis ganawilebis da SeTanxmebis
xelovnebaa21. Tanamedrove samxedro strategiis mTavari gageba
mdgomareobs SemdegSi: imis mixedviT, Tu rogor moqmedebda da
warimarTeboda strategiis Seqmnis procesi, SeiZleba daexmaros
aRniSnuli procesis warmatebul winsvlas awymosa da momavalSi22.
uvargisi strategia Zviri jdeba. cudi strategia, maSin roca saubari
midis gadarCenaze, SeiZleba iyos sasikvdilo; xolo Zalian cudi
20 Murray, William & Knox, MacGregor & Bernstein, Alvin - The making of strategy:
Rulers, states, and war; Cambridge, 1994. pg. 1-221 Murray, William, Knox, Macgregor & Bernstein, Alvin - The making of strategy: Rulers,
states, and war; Cambridge, 1994. pg. 122 ibid - pg. 6
ruseTis samxedro Zala tato kvamlaZe
saqarTvelos sazogadoebriv saqmeTa instituti 17
strategia TiTqmis yovelTvis fataluri xdeba. Tanamedrove strategia
aris XX saukunis samyaroSi organizebuli Zalis politikuri
miznebisTvis gamoyenebis Teoria da praqtika da am gamoyenebis
saSiSroeba. misi mizania strategiis arsis aRqmis win waweva im
urTierTkavSiris axsniT, romelic arsebobs Tanamedrove omis
TandaTanobiT mzard sirTuleebsa da omis saerTo Teoriasa da
strategias Soris, romelic swori formulirebis SemTxvevaSi istoriis
specifikasTan mimarTebaSi indeferentuli xdeba23. samxedro strategiis
moTxovnis Sesasrulebad ZiriTadi problemaa, regionaluri
konfliqtebis mosagvareblad saWiro samxedro mosamsaxureebis
ukmarisoba konkretul arealSi, rac ganapirobebs dasaxuli amocanis
Seusruleblobas24. strategia gulisxmobs politikuri miznebis
mxardasaWerad samxedro Zalis gamoyenebas, magram mSvidobianobis dros
politikosebi, generlebi da admiralebic ki, iSviaTad Tu iqnebian
darwmunebulni omSi maTi samxedro instrumentebis SesaZlo
Sedegianobaze.25
2.5 samxedro mSenebloba
samxedro mSenebloba Tavdacvis politikis ganuyofeli nawilia.
aRniSnuli garemoeba rigi uwyebebis TanamSromlobas moiTxovs. am
TanamSromlobaSi monawileobs SeiaraRebuli Zalebis uSualo
marTvisgan ganze mdgomi araerTi uwyebac, romelTac usafrTxoebis
politikaSi garkveuli roli akisriaT. amdenad, pasuxismgeblobaTa
gamijvnis, koordinaciisa da gadawyvetilebaTa miRebis meqanizmis
mkafioeba gansakuTrebiTaa mniSvnelovani umaRles politikur,
intersaagento doneze26. samxedro mSeneblobis mniSvnelovani nawilia
samxedro teqnologiuri da samxedro samcniero ganviTareba. samxedro
revolucia Zlier saxelmwifoSi xdeba maSin, rodesac axali
teqnologia zegavlenas axdens rig samxedro sistemebze, romlebic
23 Gray, Colin S. - Modern Strategy, Oxford University Press; Oxford, 2001. pg. 10224 Shalikashvili, John M. - National Military Strategy of the United States: A strategy of
Flexible and Selective Engagement; Washington DC 1995. pp. ii-iii25 Gray, Colin S. - Modern Strategy, Oxford University Press; Oxford, 2001. pg. 8526 Collins, John M. - Military Strategy: Principles, Practices and Historical Perspectives, Yale
University Press; USA, 2002. p. 7
ruseTis samxedro Zala tato kvamlaZe
saqarTvelos sazogadoebriv saqmeTa instituti 18
kombinirebulni arian inovaciur operatiul koncefciebTan da maTi
organizaciuli adaptacia gardauvali xdeba. aRniSnuli cvlilebebi
fundamentalurad cvlis SeiaraRebul konfliqtTa xasiaTs, rac
TavisTavad ganapirobebs saxelmwifos SeiaraRebuli Zalebis
SesaZleblobebis ganviTarebas da Tanamedrove teqnologiebis
danergvas27. Cveni istoriis manZilze moxda sul xuTi revolucia
samxedro saqmeebSi, romlebmac Secvales SeiaraRebuli Zalebisa da
konfliqtebis xasiaTi:
1. XVII saukuneSi Tanamedrove erovnuli saxelmwifos Seqmna, romlis
simZlavres amyarebda didi masStabebis mqone Zlieri
disciplinirebuli samxedro manqana;
2. XVIII saukunis bolos franguli revolucia, romelmac masebSi
moaxdina politikisa da samxedro Zalauflebis Serwyma;
3. XVIII saukunis bolos industriuli revolucia da misi Semdgomi
periodi, romelmac xalxisTvis mimzidvelad aqcia SeiaraRebuli
Zalebi, radgan iq isini aRiWurvebodnen, ikvebebodnen, imosebodnen
da gasamrjelosac Rebulobdnen;
4. pirveli msoflio omi, romelmac gaaerTiana franguli da
industriuli revoluciebis memkvidreoba da SemdgomSi nimuSad
daedo XX saukunis omebs;
5. birTvuli iaraRis Seqmna, romelmac evropisa da Crdilo-
aRmosavleT aziis TeatrebSi yvela arsebuli precendentis
sawinaaRmdegod civi omis msvleloba `civad~ SeinarCuna.
es xuTi ZiriTadi Zvra geologiuri metaforidan Semdegnairad aris
gagebuli – es iyo miwisZvrebi. maT Seitanes sistemuri cvlilebebi
politikasa da sazogadoebaSi. isini iyvnen arakontrolirebadi,
araprognozirebadi da gauTvaliswinebelni. es biZgebi dRemde
grZeldeba Cvens civilizaciaSi28.
27 Metz, Steven & Kievit, James– Strategy and the revolution in military affairs: from theory
to policy, US Army War College; 1995. pp. 3-428 Knox, Macgregor & Murray. Williamson - The Dynamics of Military Revolution 1300-
2050; Cambridge, 2001. pg 6-7
ruseTis samxedro Zala tato kvamlaZe
saqarTvelos sazogadoebriv saqmeTa instituti 19
2.6 birTvuli iaraRi
birTvuli iaraRis ganviTareba ganapiroba revoluciam samxedro
saqmeebSi, romelic viTardeba maSin, rodesac axali civilizacia
aRmocendeba da konkurencias uwevs Zvels; rodesac mTliani
sazogadoeba gardaiqmneba da iwvevs yvela doneze samxedro
specialistebis, teqnikisa Tu SeiaraRebis cvlas. aRniSnuli cvlileba
moicavs yvela dones, dawyebuli teqnologiuri Tu kulturuli donidan
fundamentalur cvlas qveynis SeiaraRebul ZalebSi, kerZod mis
organizaciaSi, strategiaSi, taqtikaSi, wvrTnaSi, doqtrinasa da
logistikaSi. aRniSnuli jaWvuri reaqciis Semdgom periodSi
saxelmwifos samxedro politika erTiandeba mis ekonomikasa da
sazogadoebasTan, ris Sedegadac miviRebT Zlier samxedro Zalas,
romelic safrTxes Seuqmnis msoflioSi ZalTa balanss29. birTvuli
iaraRi dagvexmara mSvidobis SenarCunebaSi. diskusia exeba birTvuli
SeiaraRebis Sejibrebas, rogorc omis eqvivalenti, romelic gugunebda
aSS-sa da sabWoTa kavSirs Soris `civi omis~ dros30. birTvuli
strategia politikuri miznebis misaRwevad warmoadgens muqaras, an
Zalis gamoyenebas. am muqaris, an Zalis gamoyenebis gavlena mimdinare
movlenebze aris strategiuli efeqti. faqti imisa, rom 1960-iani wlebis
msxvilmasStabiani ormxrivi birTvuli omi ver moemsaxureboda
gonivrul politikur miznebs ar uaryofs imas, rom birTvuli iaraRi
marTlac erT-erTi WeSmariti strategiuli instrumentia. Tumca, rogori
paradoqsulic ar unda iyos, SesaZlebelia, rom strategiuli birTvuli
iaraRis gamanadgurebeli Zala, Tavis mxriv, aris kidec strategiuli
gavlenis Zlieri wyaro31. birTvuli SeiaraRebiT aRWurvili
SeiaraRebuli Zalebis raodenoba unda iyos didi. im SemTxvevaSi, Tu es
SeiaraRebuli Zalebi aris `ultima ratio regis~, maSin es ar aris
Tavdacvis Zalisxmeva, romelic zrunavs imaze, Tu romelma unda aiRos
sakuTar Tavze usasyidlo riskebi32.
29 Toffler, Alvin & Toffler , Heidi - War and Anti-War: Survival at the Dawn of the 21st
Century; Boston, 1993 pp. 20-2430 Hantington, Samuel P. – Arms Races: Prerequisites andResults in Carl J. Friedrich and
Seymour T. Harris eds., Public Policy; Cambridge, 1958. pp 40-8631 Jervis, Robert - The Meaning of the Nuclear Revolution: Statecraft and the Prospect of
Armageddon, Cornell Studies in Security Affairs; New York, 1989. pg 32232 Gray, Colin S. - Modern Strategy, Oxford University Press; Oxford, 2001. pg. 346
ruseTis samxedro Zala tato kvamlaZe
saqarTvelos sazogadoebriv saqmeTa instituti 20
2.7 safrTxeebi
sabWoTa imperiis daSlam, politikurad araaqtualuri gaxada
aRmosavleT-dasavleTis mesame msoflio omis SesaZlebloba. birTvuli
safrTxe erovnuli da saerTaSoriso usafrTxoebisTvis dRemde
arsebobs, magram is radikalurad gansxvavdeba civi omis periodis
problemisgan33. Tanamedrove omebi ar iqneba konvenciuri, romlebic
safrTxes Seuqmnian saxelmwifos arsebobis fundamentalur principebs.
omi ar iwarmoeba armiebis saSualebiT, isini `gaCaRebuli~ iqneba
mobiluri jgufebis mier, romlebsac dRes veZaxiT teroristebs,
meamboxeebs, banditebsa da yaCaRebs; magram, yvelaze mniSvnelovania is,
Tu rogor vapirebT maT damarcxebas Cven dRes da ra daerqmeva im
qmedebebs, romlebsac gamoviyenebT maT winaaRmdeg34. aqedan gamomdinare
saWiroa ara omis warmoebis strategiuli SesaZleblobebis ganviTareba,
aramed mobiluri (taqtikuri) SesaZleblobebis ganviTareba, raTa
Tanamedrove safrTxis aRmofxvra moxdes maRali profesionalizmiT da
minimumamde dayvanili danakargiT. individualuri dajgufebebi iqnebian
zomiT mcireni, magram Zalian moqnilni da maT SesaZlebloba eqnebaT
daupirispirdnen gacilebiT did da Zlier mowinaaRmdeges35.
2.8 samxedro strategia - dokumenti
dokumenti, romelic garkveuli periodisaTvis gansazRvravs
SeiaraRebuli Zalebis sasurvel struqturas, maxasiaTeblebsa da maTi
miRwevis gzebs da meTodebs warmoadgens saxelmwifos umaRles
samxedro-politikur dokuments, romelic asaxavs fundamentur
sakiTxebs qveynis SeiaraRebuli Zalebis gamoyenebis strategiis Sesaxeb
mSvidobis, krizisisa da omis dros. dokumenti, qveynis xelmisawvdomi
resursebis gaTvaliswinebiT, gansazRvravs misi SeiaraRebuli Zalebis
ganviTarebis ZiriTad mimarTulebebs arsebuli potenciuri safrTxis
maqsimalurad efeqturad gasaneitraleblad. erovnuli samxedro
strategia warmoadgens saxelmwifos Tavdacvis dagegmvis erT-erT
mniSvnelovan komponents, romlis safuZvelzec yalibdeba Tavdacvis
33 ibid - pg. 32434 Cleveld, Martin van - The Transformation of War; New York, 1991. pg 19735 Metz, Steven & Kievit, James - Strategy and the revolution in military affairs: from theory
to policy, US Army War College; 1995. pg.25
ruseTis samxedro Zala tato kvamlaZe
saqarTvelos sazogadoebriv saqmeTa instituti 21
sistemis ganviTarebis gegmebi da xorcieldeba ZalTa dagegmvis
RonisZiebebi. dokumenti moicavs iseT mniSvnelovan sakiTxebs,
rogoricaa: samxedro strategiis mniSvneloba, erovnuli samxedro
miznebi da amocanebi, saxelmwifos SeiaraRebuli Zalebis moqmedebis
principebi da ganviTarebis moTxovnebi, saWiro samxedro
SesaZleblobebi. dokumenti gansazRvravs erovnul samxedro miznebs,
qveynis SeiaraRebuli Zalebis ZiriTad amocanebs, ganviTarebisaTvis
saWiro SesaZleblobebs, romlebic gamomdinareoben `safrTxeebis
Sefasebis~ dokumentSi asaxuli safrTxidan, `erovnuli usafrTxoebis
koncefciaSi Camoyalibebuli qveynis usafrTxoebis politikis
ZiriTadi mimarTulebebidan da Tavdacvis politikidan. dokumenti
asaxavs qveynis erovnuli usafrTxoebis uzrunvelyofisa da
ganmtkicebisaTvis SemuSavebul SZ-is gamoyenebis strategias. `erovnuli
samxedro strategia~ iTvaliswinebs SeiaraRebuli Zalebis gamoyenebas
sxva saxelmwifo organoebTan koordinaciaSi, samoqalaqo da
demokratiuli kontrolis pirobebSi. `erovnuli samxedro strategia~
saSualovadiani periodisTvis gansazRvravs SeiaraRebuli Zalebis
amocanebs da warmoadgens saxelmZRvanelos operatiuli dagegmvis
ZiriTadi mimarTulebebisTvis. `erovnuli samxedro strategia~
saxelmZRvanelo dokumentia, ris safuZvelzec SeiaraRebulma Zalebma
unda Seasrulon is ZiriTadi amocanebi, romlebic emsaxureba erovnuli
samxedro miznebis miRwevas36. miRebuli praqtikiT samxedro strategia
ibeWdeba da qveyndeba. amas garda, gamocemas zogjer erTvis
saxelmwifos SeiaraRebuli Zalebis Semadgenlobis, struqturis,
misiebis, samomavlo ganviTarebis perspeqtivebis aRweriloba. masSi
yuradReba eTmoba bolo wlebis manZilze saxelmwifo usafrTxoebis
politikis analizsac. rogorc wesi, aRniSnul publikacias TeTr wigns
uwodeben. rig SemTxvevebSi, TeTr wigns Tan axlavs Tavad usafrTxoebis
strategiis SemuSavebis procesis aRweriloba. amdenad, SeiZleba iTqvas,
rom TeTri wigni erovnuli usafrTxoebis koncefciis ganmartebaa.
xSirad erovnuli usafrTxoebis Tematika iyofa cal-calke dabeWdil
Tavdacvisa da sagareo politikis TeTr wignebad.
36 saqarTvelos erovnuli samxedro strategia; Tbilisi, 2005 –
http://www.mod.gov.ge/?page=-10&Id=3&lang=0
ruseTis samxedro Zala tato kvamlaZe
saqarTvelos sazogadoebriv saqmeTa instituti 22
2.9 samxedro doqtrina
samxedro doqtrina fuZemdebluri dokumentia, romliTac samxedroebi
warmarTaven Tavis qmedebas dasaxuli amocanis gadaWris
uzrunvelsayofad. igi im zogadpolitikuri saxelmZRvanelos
safuZvelze miiReba, romlis rolsac koncefcia asrulebs. liberalur-
demokratiul samyaroSi arsebobs Camoyalibebuli praqtika Tu ra unda
eweros saxelmwifoTa usafrTxoebis strategiis amsaxvel dokumentebSi,
raTa man Tavisi funqcia - politikis siRiavisa da legitimurobis
xelSewyoba - ganaxorcielos37. samxedro doqtrina aris lakonuri
gamoxatva imisa, Tu rogor axerxebs SeiaraRebuli Zalebi laSqrobebis,
ZiriTadi operaciebis, brZolisa da sxvadasxva saqmianobis
Sesrulebisas TanamSromlobas. igi SeiaraRebul Zalebs uwesebs saerTo
miTiTebebis CarCoebs. is exmareba operaciebis standartizaciaSi da
samxedro davalebebis Sesrulebis zogadi wesebis saSualebiT aiolebs
mzadyofnas. standartizacia niSnavs, rom jariskaci sxva qvedanayofSi
gadasvlis SemTxvevaSi ama Tu im samxedro davalebebis Sesrulebisas ar
saWiroebs axali wesebis da gzebis povnas. doqtrina aiolebs
komunikacias jariskacebs Soris, xels uwyobs saerTo profesionaluri
kulturis Camoyalibebas da emsaxureba mas rogorc saswavlo gegmebis
fundamenti armiis ganaTlebis sistemaSi. SeiaraRebuli Zalebi swavlobs
organizebas. erTan erTad socialuri cvlilebebis da teqnikuri
miRwevebis saSualebiT, mudam cvalebadi saerTaSoriso viTarebis
pirobebSi, igi ganicdis evolucias. igi mudmivad anaxlebs sakuTar
doqtrinas, raTa angariSi gauwios cvlilebebs, danergos axali
teqnologiebi da ganvlili operaciebidan aiTvisos axali gakveTilebi.
aseve, doqtrina aumjobesebs ganaTlebisa da wvrTnis procesebs, raTa
miawodos samxedro mosamsaxures SesaZlodan maqsimalurad realuri da
gamomwvevi gamocdileba. igi miiswrafis samxedro mosamsaxureebsa da
qvedanayofebs mianiWos individualuri da koleqtiuri unar-Cvevebi,
codna da maTi davalebebis warmatebiT Sesasruleblad saWiro
Tvisebebi. samxedro doqtrina aerTianebs Teorias, istorias,
novatorobasa da praqtikas. misi mizania iniciativisa da kreatiuli
azrovnebis stimulireba. doqtrina warmoiqmneba codniTa da
37 O’Rourke,Ronald - Defense Transformation: Background and Oversight Issues for
Congress; Oxford, 2006. pg 56
ruseTis samxedro Zala tato kvamlaZe
saqarTvelos sazogadoebriv saqmeTa instituti 23
gamocdilebiT da ayalibebs oficialur ganacxads imis Sesaxeb, Tu
rogor unda uxelmZRvanelon samxedro operaciebs SeiaraRebulma
Zalebma. amasTanave qmnis saerTo leqsikons maT cxadsayofad. doqtrina
warmoadgens inteleqtualur xelsawyos, romlis meSveobiTac
SesaZlebelia moulodneli moTxovnebis prognozireba38.
@
38 Field Manual No 1 – Headquarters, United States Department of the Army; Washington
DC, 2005. pp 20-21
ruseTis samxedro Zala tato kvamlaZe
saqarTvelos sazogadoebriv saqmeTa instituti 24
3 SedarebiTi analizi - iluzia
omia yvela didi saqmis Semoqmedi. yvelaferi mniSvnelovani cxovrebaSi
miRweulia gamarjvebiT an damarcxebiT
heraklite
3.1 ruseTis erovnuli usafrTxoeba
ruseTis federaciis usafrTxoeba ganisazRvreba dokumentiT, romelsac
warmoadgens `erovnuli usafrTxoebis koncefcia~, igi aris sagareo da
saSinao safrTxisgan pirovnebis, sazogadoebisa da saxelmwifos
Tavisuflebis uzrunvelyofasTan dakavSirebuli SexedulebaTa sistema.
koncefciaSi Camoyalibebulia ruseTis federaciis politikis
umniSvnelovanesi mimarTulebebi. msoflio sazogadoebaSi ruseTis
rolisa da adgilis gansazRvris dros, koncefcia yuradRebas
amaxvilebs or urTierTgamomricxav tendenciaze; - pirveli tendencia
mdgomareobs saxelmwifoebis mniSvnelovani ricxvis ekonomikuri da
politikuri poziciebis gamyarebaSi da gaerTianebaSi, saerTaSoriso
procesebis mravalmxrivi mmarTvelobis meqanizmebis gaumjobesebaSi.
amasTan, sul ufro did rols TamaSobs ekonomikuri, politikuri,
samecniero-teqnologiuri, ekologiuri da informaciuli faqtorebi.
amis safuZvelze ruseTi xels Seuwyobs multipolaruli samyaros
Camoyalibebis ideologias; meore tendencia vlindeba saerTaSoriso
urTierTobebis struqturis Seqmnis mcdelobaSi, romelic emyareba
saerTaSoriso urTierTobebSi ganviTarebuli dasavluri
saxelmwifoebis dominirebas aSS-is liderobis qveS da gaTvlilia
saerTaSoriso politikaSi ZiriTadi problemebis calmxrivad,
upirveles yovlisa Zalismieri meTodebiT, mogvarebaze, saerTaSoriso
samarTlis yvela normis gverdis avliT. saerTaSoriso urTierTobebis
Camoyalibeba dakavSirebulia konkurenciasTan da agreTve rigi
saxelmwifoebis survilTan, gazardon TavianTi gavlena saerTaSoriso
politikaze, maT Soris, masobrivi ganadgurebis iaraRis Seqmnis
meSveobiT. saerTaSoriso urTierTobebSi samxedro aspeqtebi
mniSvnelovan rols TamaSobs.39 ruseTis SeiaraRebuli Zalebis
ricxovnoba msoflios xuTeulSi Sedis sididit (ixileT danarTi # 1).
39 Исаев, Б.А. & Баранов, Н.А. - Политические Отношения и Политический Процесс
в Современной России; Санкт-Петербург, 2003. ст. 234
ruseTis samxedro Zala tato kvamlaZe
saqarTvelos sazogadoebriv saqmeTa instituti 25
3.2 ruseTis erovnuli interesebi
ruseTis erovnuli interesebi aris pirovnebis, sazogadoebis,
saxelmwifos dabalansebuli interesebis erToblioba, ekonomikur, Sida
politikur, socialur, saerTaSoriso, sainformacio, samxedro,
sasazRvro, ekologiur da sxva sferoebSi. isini grZelvadian xasiaTs
atareben da ZiriTad miznebs, saxelmwifos saSinao da sagareo
politikis mimdinare da strategiul amocanebs gansazRvraven. erovnuli
interesebi ganisazRvreba samTavrobo institutebis mier, romlebic
axorcieleben TavianT funqciebs, maT Soris - urTierTqmedeben ruseTis
federaciis konstituciis da ruseTis federaciis kanonmdeblobis
farglebSi moqmed sazogadoebriv organizaciebTan. pirovnebis
interesebi mdgomareobs konstituciuri uflebebisa da Tavisuflebis
realizaciaSi, usafrTxoebis uzrunvelyofaSi, cxovrebis donis
amaRlebaSi, adamianis da moqalaqis fizikur, sulier da
inteleqtualur ganviTarebaSi. sazogadoebis interesebi mdgomareobs
demokratiis gamyarebaSi, socialuri da samarTlebrivi saxelmwifos
SeqmnaSi, erTiani sazogadoebis SeqmnaSi, ruseTis sulier ganaxlebaSi.
saxelmwifos interesebi mdgomareobs konstituciuri wyobis,
suverenitetisa da ruseTis teritoriuli mTlianobis uryeobaSi,
ekonomikur, politikur da socialur stabilurobaSi, kanonis
uzenaesobis da wesrigis uzrunvelyofaSi, Tanabari uflebebiTa da
urTierTmomgebiani saerTaSoriso TanamSromlobis SeqmnaSi.40
3.3 ruseTis samxedro politika
saxelmwifos samxedro politika, qveynis samxedro doqtrinas efuZneba.
ruseTis federaciis samxedro doqtrina warmoadgens oficialuri
Sexedulebebis erTobliobas, romelic gansazRvravs ruseTis
federaciis samxedro usafrTxoebis samxedro-politikur, samxedro-
strategiul da samxedro-ekonomikur safuZvlebs. samxedro doqtrina
TavdacviT xasiaTs atarebs, rac ganisazRvreba misi mSvidobisken
swrafvisa da erovnuli interesebis, ruseTis federaciisa da misi
mokavSireebis samxedro usafrTxoebis dacvis miznebis erTobliobiT.
samxedro doqtrinis iuridiul safuZvels warmoadgens ruseTis
40 Исаев, Б.А. & Баранов, Н.А. - Политические Отношения и Политический Процесс
в Современной России; Санкт-Петербург, 2003. ст. 241
ruseTis samxedro Zala tato kvamlaZe
saqarTvelos sazogadoebriv saqmeTa instituti 26
federaciis konstitucia, federaluri kanonebi da ruseTis federaciis
sxva normatiuli aqtebi; agreTve, ruseTis federaciis saerTaSoriso
SeTanxmebebi, samxedro usafrTxoebis uzrunvelyofasTan dakavSirebiT41.
3.3.1 samxedro usafrTxoeba
ruseTis federaciis samxedro usafrTxoebas uzrunvelyofs mis
daqvemdebarebaSi myofi Zalebisa da resursebis erToblioba.
Tanamedrove pirobebSi igi eyrdnoba im mosazrebas, rom nebismier
pirobebSi agresorisaTvis (iqneba es qveyana Tu qveyanaTa koalicia)
sapasuxo Tanaswori dartymis misayeneblad, mas sWirdeba atomuri
iaraRi. amasTan, is atomuri iaraRi, romelic ukve aris ruseTis
federaciis mflobelobaSi, ganixileba am ukanasknelis mier, rogorc
agresiis Semakavebeli faqtori, ruseTis federaciisa da misi
mokavSireebisaTvis samxedro usafrTxoebis garanti, saerTaSoriso
stabilurobisa da mSvidobis SenarCunebis saSualeba. ruseTis
federacia itovebs uflebas gamoiyenos atomuri iaraRi mis da/an misi
mokavSireebis winaaRmdeg atomuri, an sxva saxis masobrivi ganadgurebis
iaraRis gamoyenebis SemTxvevaSi, agreTve Cveulebrivi iaraRis
gamoyenebiT ganxorcielebuli farTomasStabiani agresiis winaaRmdeg,
ruseTis federaciis eronuli usafrTxoebisaTvis kritikul
situaciaSi42.
3.3.2 samxedro mowyoba
saxelmwifos samxedro mowyoba Tavis TavSi aerTianebs ruseTis
federaciis SeiaraRebul Zalebs, romelSic aseve Sedian sxva
SeiaraRebuli Zalebi, maTi formirebebi da organoebi, romlebic
gankuTvnilia samxedro usafrTxoebis amocanebis samxedro
saSualebebiT gadaWrisaTvis da agerTve - maTi xelmZRvaneli organoebi.
qveynis samxedro mowyobaSi agreTve Sedis sawarmoo da samecniero
kompleqsebis nawili, romlebic samxedro usafrToebis
uzrunvelyofazea fokusirebuli. centralizebuli xelmZRvanelobis
41 Исаев, Б.А. & Баранов, Н.А. - Политические Отношения и Политический Процесс
в Современной России; Санкт-Петербург, 2003. ст. 24242 КОНЦЕПЦИЯ НАЦИОНАЛЬНОЙ БЕЗОПАСНОСТИ РОССИЙСКОЙ ФЕДЕРАЦИИ - Утверждена
Указом Президента Российской Федерации № 24 от 10.01. 2000 г.
ruseTis samxedro Zala tato kvamlaZe
saqarTvelos sazogadoebriv saqmeTa instituti 27
mizniT xdeba ruseTis federaciis SeiaraRebuli Zalebis da sxva
SenaerTebis erTiani strategiuli da operatiuli dagegmva
TavdacvisaTvis, samxedro mSeneblobebis programul-gamiznuli dagegmva,
romelic iTvaliswinebs grZelvadiani (10-15 weli), saSualovadiani (4-5
weli) da moklevadiani (1-2 weli) dokumentebis Sedgenas43.
3.4 samxedro doqtrina post sabWoTa periodSi
samxedro doqtrinaSi aRniSnulia is safrTxeebi, romlebmac
SesaZlebelia safrTxe Seuqmnas qveynis erovnul usafrTxoebas. masSi
aseve gansazRvrulia is pirobebi, romlis safuZvelzec unda moxdes
armiis reorganizacia, raTa maT SeZlon qveynis usafrTxoebis
uzrunvelyofa. samxedro doqtrinaSi ganxilulia, agreTve, samxedro-
strategiuli da samxedro-ekonomikuri safuZvlebi, romlebic
gansazRvraven omis an SiaraRebuli konfliqtis xasiaTs, ruseTis
federaciis SeiaraRebuli Zalebisa da sxva SenaerTebis gamoyenebis
safuZvlebs, samxedro usafrTxoebis samxedro-ekonomikur
uzrunvelyofas, saerTaSoriso samxedro da samxedro-teqnikur
TanamSromlobas.44 ZiriTadi samxedro terminebis sabWoTa leqsikoni
gansazRvravda samxedro doqtrinas Semdegnairad: `saxelmwifos mier
oficialurad miRebuli sistema, romelic eyrdnoba Tanamedrove
omebTan da SeiaraRebuli Zalebis gamoyenebasTan dakavSirebul
samecniero mosazrebebs... samxedro doqtrinas aqvs ori aspeqti:
socialur-politikuri da samxedro-teqnikuri~. socialur-politikuri
mxare aerTianebs omis meTodologiasTan, ekonomikasTan, socialur
safuZvlebTan da politikur miznebTan dakavSirebul kiTxvebs. es aris
ganmsazRvreli da ufro stabiluri mxare. meore, samxedro-teqnikuri
mxare, unda iyos politikur miznebTan SeTanxmebuli. igi moicavs
samxedro struqturis Seqmnas, SeiaraRebuli Zalebis teqnikur aRWurvas,
maT gawvrTnas, Catarebuli operaciebisa da saerTod - omis formebisa
da mniSvnelobebis gansazRvra. doqtrina ar aris strategia. stategiis
nato-seuli ganmarteba mdgomareobs SemdegSi: strategia aris imis
warmoCineba, Tu rogor unda ganviTardes da gamoyenebul iqnes samxedro
43 Исаев, Б.А. & Баранов, Н.А. - Политические Отношения и Политический Процесс
в Современной России; Санкт-Петербург, 2003. ст. 26544 ibid - ст. 268
ruseTis samxedro Zala tato kvamlaZe
saqarTvelos sazogadoebriv saqmeTa instituti 28
Zala, raTa miRweul iqnas saxelmwifos, an saxelmwifoTa jgufis
miznebi. aSS-is Tavdacvis saministros strategiis oficialuri
ganmarteba _ strategia aris keTilgonivruli idea, an ideebi, Tu
rogor gamoiyeno saxelmwifo Zalis instrumentebi sinqronizirebulad,
raTa miaRwio erovnul da multierovnul miznebs. sabWoTa xedva
samxedro doqtrinasTan dakavSirebiT sruliad gansxvavebulia aSS-is
xedvisagan. sabWoTa kavSiris Tavdacvis ministri greCko 1975 wels
doqtrinas gansazRvravda, rogorc mosazrebaTa sistemas omis bunebis
da misi warmoebis meTodebis Sesaxeb da rogorc qveynisa da jaris
momzadebas omisaTvis. es mosazreba oficialurad iyo damtkicebuli
sabWoTa kavSiris xelmZRvanelobis mier.
3.4.1 elcinis era
riseTis suverenul saxelmwifod Camoyalibebisa da sakuTari
SeiaraRebuli Zalebis Seqmnis Semdeg, qveynis prezidentma boris
elcinma 1993 wels miiRo dokumenti ,,ruseTis federaciis samxedro
doqtrinis mdgomareobis Sesaxeb”, rac warmoadgenda momavali ruseTis
federaciis saxelmwifos usafrTxoebis koncefciis erT-erT ZidiTad
nawils. doqtrina mowonebul da damtkicebul iqna qveynis uSiSroebis
sabWosa da prezident elcinis mier. unda aRiniSnos rom, doqtrina
atarebda TavdacviT xasiaTs da masSi asaxuli iyo rusuli samxedro
politikis ZiriTadi aspeqtebi da gadmocemuli iyo ruseTis
SeiaraRebuli Zalebis reformebis axali mimarTulebebi. miRebuli
doqtrina Sedgeboda sami nawilisgan: politikuri, samxedro da
samxedro-teqnikuri, romelic ZiriTadad moicavda or periods. pirveli
iyo winasareformo-mosamzadebeli 1996 wlamde, romlis mTavari mizani
SeiaraRebuli Zalebis restruqturizacia da aseve raodenobis
Semcireba iyo, anu armiis Semadgenloba unda gansazRvruliyo mTliani
mosaxleobis 1%-iT (ixileT danarTi #2), es ki unda yofiliyo
daaxloebiT 1,3 milioni samxedro mosamsaxure, da aseve, im samxedro
danayofebis ukan gamowveva, romlebic imyofebodnen sxva qveynis
teritoriaze, garda im qveynebisa, sadac specialuri xelSekrulebis
safuZvelze dadgindeboda am qveyanaSi dislocirebuli jarebis
statusi. xolo meore periods warmoadgenda 1996-2000 ww. - am periodSi
unda momxdariyo rusuli jaris gadayvana Sereuli kompleqtaciis
ruseTis samxedro Zala tato kvamlaZe
saqarTvelos sazogadoebriv saqmeTa instituti 29
sistemaze, unda danergiliyo jarSi sakontraqto samsaxuri Dda aseve,
unda Seqmniliyo axali, Tanamedrove samxedro infrastruqtura.
aRniSnul doqtrinaSi gansazRvruli iyo, Tu unda aRiqvas ruseTis
federaciam, mis teritoriaze warmoqmnili SeiaraRebuli konfliqtebi,
romlebic Tavs iCens nacionalizmisa da religiuri umciresobebis
agresiuli qmedebebis safuZvelze; arsebuli da potenciuri omebi da
SeiaraRebuli konfliqtebi, gansakuTrebiT mis mezobel qveynebSi
arsebuli dapirispirebebi; ucxo qveynis jarebis Seyvana ruseTis
mezobel da mokavSire qveynebis teritoriaze gaeros dadgenilebis
darRveviT; mcdeloba ruseTis Sida saqmeebSi Carevisa da
destabilizaciis gamowveva; mcdeloba moiSalos arsebuli
konstituciuri sistema Zalis gamoyenebiT; aralegaluri SeiaraRebuli
Zalebis formireba; organizebuli kriminalisa da kontrabandistuli
qmedebebis zrda, romelic safrTxes Seuqmnis sazogadoebas; SeiaraRebis
aralegaluri distribucia ruseTis teritoriaze sabotaJis an
teroristuli aqtis mowyobis mizniT; sxva saxelmwifoSi ruseTis
moqalaqeebis uflebebis, Tavisuflebisa da legitimuri interesebis
xelyofa da saerTaSoriso terorizmi45. ori mniSvnelovani garemoeba,
romelic aRiniSneboda ruseTis federaciis doqtrinaSi, aris is, rom
masSi gansazRvruli iyo ruseTis aqtiuri monawileoba agresiisa da
SeiaraRebuli konfliqtebis winaaRmdeg brZolaSi, maTi Tavidan
acilebis mizniT da aseve, ruseTis mzadyofna gaeros egidiT
samSvidobo operaciebis Casatareblad msoflios nebismier mxares da
gansakuTrebiT `demokratiul saxelmwifoTa Tanamegobrobis~ (СНГ)
masStabiT; Dda meore mniSvnelovani punqti - ruseTis federaciis
doqtriniT atomuri iaraRi ganisazRvreboda ara rogorc samxedro
moqmedebis iaraRi, aramed rogorc SesaZlo agresiis Semakavebeli
politikuri atributi. dokumentis mixedviTYruseTi kisrulobda
valdebulebas daecva 1968 wlis ivlisis xelSekruleba atomuri
iaraRis mflobeli qveynebis mier misi argamoyenebisa da strategiuli
iaraRis Semcirebis Sesaxeb. Tumca ukve 2000 wlis doqtrinaSi,M ruseTis
federacia itovebs uflebas gamoiyenos atomuri iaraRi mis wiinaaRmdeg
atomuri an sxva masobrivi ganadgurebis iaraRis gamoyenebis SemTxvevaSi
45 ВОЕННАЯ ДОКТРИНА РОССИЙСКОЙ ФЕДЕРАЦИИ - Утверждена Указом Президента
Российской Федерации от 2 ноября 1993 г.
ruseTis samxedro Zala tato kvamlaZe
saqarTvelos sazogadoebriv saqmeTa instituti 30
da aseve gamoiyenos atomuri iaraRi farTomasStabiani agresiis
winaaRmdeg Cveulebrivi SeiaraRebis dros, kritikul momentSi erovnuli
usafrTxoebisaTvis. ruseTis federacia ar gamoiyenebs atomur iaraRs im
qveynebis winaaRmdeg, romlebic arian atomuri iaraRis gauvrcevlebobis
Sesaxeb SeTanxmebiis monawileebi, da arc im qveynebis winaaRmdeg,
romlebic ar floben atomur iaraRs, mxolod im SemTxvevaSi, Tuki ar
moxdeba Tavdasxma ruseTis federaciaze da safrTxis winaSe ar dadgeba
ruseTis erovnuli usafrTxoeba. erT-erTi mTavari momentia is, rom
ruseTs ar hyavda gare mtrebi an mowinaaRmdegeebi. nuTu dResac ki,
ruseTis samxedro manqana ar emzadeba SeiaraRebuli
dapirispirebisaTvis? realoba ki imaSi mdgomareobs, rom ukve didi
xania, rac moskovis samxedro olqi aRar aris ruseTis Tavdacvis wina
xazi, romlis gamoc ruseTis administraciuli da industriuli
Suaguli mudam imyofeboda yvelaze mcire taqtikuri safreni aparatebis
sabrZolo radiusSi46.
3.4.2 putinis era
elcinis momdevno prezidentis vlademer putinis saTaveSi mosvlis
Semdeg ruseTis federaciaSi uSiSroebis sabWos mier 2000 wlis 11
agvistos miRebul iqna rigiT meore samxedro doqtrina. es doqtrina
moicavda gegmas, romelic unda miRweuliyo 2010 wlamde da romelic
iTvaliswinebda ruseTis federaciis samxedro struqturis
gaumjobesebas. igi agerTve aseve moicavda ruseTis SeiaraRebuli
Zalebis gaZlierebasa da ganviTarebas 2001-2005 wlebis periodSi47. 2003
wels aRniSnul doqtrinaSi iqna miRebuli danamati, radgan msoflio
politikaSi mniSvnelovani cvlilebebis gamo, ruseTis federaciis
winaSe dadga axali amocanebi. 2003 wels ruseTis federaciis
imdroindelma Tavdacvis ministrma - sergei ivanovma warmoadgina
dokumenti, romelic iyo ruseTis samxedro doqtrinis danamati. masSi
gansazRvruli iyo moulodneli safrTxeebi ruseTis federaciis
46 Sergunin, Alexander – In Search of a New Paradigm: the Russian Nationl Security
Concept of 1997 in Peace and Security, GESIS – Leibniz Institute for the Social Sciences;
Mannheim, 2000. pg 2447 ВОЕННАЯ ДОКТРИНА РОССИЙСКОЙ ФЕДЕРАЦИИ - Утверждена Указом Президента
Российской Федерации от 21 апреля 2000 г.
ruseTis samxedro Zala tato kvamlaZe
saqarTvelos sazogadoebriv saqmeTa instituti 31
usafrTxoebisa da interesebisaTvis. ra unda moimoqmedos ruseTis
federaciam moulodneli safrTxeebis Tavidan asacileblad?
strategiuli atomuri SeiaraRebis mzadyofna mtris dasasuteblad
nebismier dros, saWiroebis SemTxvevaSi; SeiaraRebuli Zalebis wvrTna,
iaraRiT aRWurva da mzadyofna, raTa mtris Tavdasxmis SemTxvevaSi
SeZlos mobilizacia; lokaluri Tavdacvis saTanado doneze
organizebuloba; aqtiuri saerTaSoriso urTierTobebis damyareba
mosalodneli safrTxis Tavidan acilebis mizniT. ekonomikuri da
politikuri kuTxiT ruseTis moqalaqeebis dacva, romlebic cxovroben,
an stumroben konfliqtur zonebs; biznes organizaciebis usafrTxoebis
uzrunvelyofa ruseTis federaciis kanonis farglebSi; saxelmwifos
erovnuli interesebis dacva Sida wylebSi, kontinetur Selfze, savaWro
ekonomikur zonebSi da msoflio okeaneebSi. mokavSire saxelmwifoebTan
erTad erToblivi sawrTvneli operaciebis Catareba; teroristebis,
politikuri eqstremistebisa da separatistebis winaaRmdeg brZola;
samSvidobo operaciebSi monawileoba gaerosa da dsT-s egidiT;
bunebrivi katastrofebis Tavidan acileba; SeiaraRebuli Zalebis
gamoyeneba ruseTis usafrTxoebis dasacavad. maT unda daicvan ruseTis
federacia mtris mier SeiaraRebuli konfrontaciis SemTxvevaSi,
romelic iyofa oTx kategoriad: SeiaraRebuli konfliqti, lokaluri
omi, regionuli omi da farTomasStabiani omi. aqve gansazRvruli iyo
isic, rom ruseTis federaciis armias unda SeZleboda saWiroebis
SemTxvevaSi erTdroulad or frontze brZola. unda aRiniSnos isic,
rom 2000 wlis doqtrinaSi aSS, nato da evropa ukve aRar ganixileboda
ruseTisTvis, rogorc bunebrivi mokavSire. aSS da gansakuTrebiT nato
(da ra Tqma unda misi gafarToeba) ganixileboda rogorc safrTxe
ruseTis erovnuli usafrTxoebisaTvis.
3.4.3 medvedevis era
2008 wlis agvistos TveSi ruseTis mier saqarTvelos winaaRmdeg
ganxorcielebulma qmedebebma cxadyo, rom ruseTis armia garkveul
modernizebas saWiroebs48. swored am omis Semdeg, ruseTis federaciis
prezidentma dimitri medvedevma ganaxorciela reformebi ruseTis
48 The Military Balance 2009-10 - International Institute for Strategic Studies, London:
Oxford University Press, 2010. pg 212
ruseTis samxedro Zala tato kvamlaZe
saqarTvelos sazogadoebriv saqmeTa instituti 32
samxedro sferoSi, romlebic moicavda Semdegs: yvela qvedanayofi
gadavida mudmiv sabrZolo mzadyofnis mdgomareobaSi da nebismier
dros unda iyos mzad sabrZolo operaciebSi Casabmelad umaRlesi
mTavarsardlis - anu ruseTis federaciis prezidentis brZanebis
safuZvelze; SeiaraRebuli Zalebis marTvisa da kontrolis
efeqturobis gazrda; samxedro swavlebis gaumjobeseba; SeiaraRebuli
Zalebis xelaxali SeiaraReba Tanamedrove da maRalteqnologiuri
sabrZolo iaraRiT; socialuri sargeblis gazrda samxedro da
samoqalaqo pirebisaTvis, ris safuZvelzec moxdeba sabrZolo
motivaciis zrda.
ruseTis samxedro Zala tato kvamlaZe
saqarTvelos sazogadoebriv saqmeTa instituti 33
4 analizi - realoba
eri, romelic ver Seinaxavs Tavis jars – Seinaxavs sxvisas
napoleoni
4.1 ruseTis SeiaraRebuli Zalebi dRes
ruseTis samxedro Zala Zalauneburad iwyeba sabWoTa kavSirisgan
memkvidreobiT miRebuli organizaciebiT, koncefciebiT, samxedro
SenaerTebiTa da aRWurvilobiT. es memkvidreoba ki dakavSirebulia im
drosTan, rodesac moskovis samxedro Zala iseTive Zlieri iyo, rogorc
danarCeni msofliosi. dRes ruseTis SeiaraRebuli Zalebi - odesRac
Semzaravi wiTeli armiis gadmonaSTi – krizisSi imyofeba. sabWoTa armia
iyo didi da efeqturi Zala, sul mcire - didi intensivobis
konfliqtisTvis Seqmnili. mas gaaCnda valdebulebis grZnoba,
urTierTSeTanxmebis maRali xarisxi da hqonda Warbi raodenobiT
aRWurviloba. sabWoTa kavSiris daSlam es yvelaferi gaanadgura49.
dResdReisobiT ruseTis generaliteti doqtrinis problemebis,
cocxali Zalis Sevsebis da ucxoeTis samxedro samsaxurebis
mxardaWeris Sesustebis winaSe dgas. ruseTis ekonomikis
warumateblobis da misi politikuri liderebis meryevi mxardaWeris
fonze am problemebis gadawyvetis gzebi saukeTeso SemTxvevaSi saeWvoa.
SeiaraRebuli Zalebis reabilitaciis mTavari programis gareSe,
romelic unda daiwyos maTi mniSvnelobis naTeli warmosaxviT da
gagrZeldes operatiuli cvlilebebisTvis da misi mosamsaxureebisTvis
sabazo sasisocxlo pirobebisTvis aucilebeli finansuri mxardaWeriT,
es krizisi gaxdeba ufro mkacri da ruseTis sazogadoebis
stabilurobaSi warmoqmnis mniSvnelovan safrTxeebs50.
civi omis dasasrulis Semdeg, ruseTis samxedro manqana ibrZoda
sakuTari TavisTvis axali rolis gansasazRvrelad da ganicdida
naklebobas rogorc resursebSi, aseve ucxo mtris siaSkaraveSi.
odesRac erisgan sayvareli, amJamad ganicdis identurobis dakargvas da
aris yvelasgan saZageli da kuTxeSi momwyvdeuli. oficerTa korpusis
49 Dick, Charles J. – A Bear without Claws: The Russian Army in the Nineties, Research
Paper C89, CSRC (RMA Sandhurst); June 1996. pg 150 Duggleby, Robert W. - The Disintegration of the Russian Armed Forces, The Journal of
Slavic Military Studies; June 1998. pg 15
ruseTis samxedro Zala tato kvamlaZe
saqarTvelos sazogadoebriv saqmeTa instituti 34
motivaciisa da moralis daqveiTebis ramodenime mizezi arsebobs da am
mizezebs Soris gansakuTrebulad ikveTeba da mravali socialuri
problemis safuZvelia prestiJis dakargva, romelic Tan daerTo
oficerTa statuss. ruseTis samxedro prestiJis daknineba daiwyo
avRaneTis omis periodSi pirveli warumateblobebis etapebze da
dRemdec ki ar kargavs Tavis aqtualurobas qaotur ekonomikur da
politikur klimats Soris, romelic nebismieri pozitiuri cvlilebis
pirveli mteria. ruseTis federaciis SeiaraRebuli Zalebis piradi
Semadgenloba mimdinare periodSi, ukeTes SemTxvevaSi, yvelaze saSinel
jurRmulebSi an satanko fardulebSi cxovrobs, maTi ar arsebobis
SemTxvevaSi karvebSic ki uwevT cxovreba. zogierT SemTxvevaSi iqac ki,
sadac dabinaveba ar aris problema, iseTi sabazo komponentebi,
rogoricaa wyali an eleqtrodeni, ar aris xelmisawvdomi.
sacxovrebeli pirobebis umetesoba ar moicavs iseT sabazo saWiroebebs,
rogoricaa bavSvebze zrunva, skolebi, hospitlebi da maRaziebi. xSir
SemTxvevaSi sayofacxovrebo problemebs gadawonis xolme sakvebis
ukmarisobis problemebi51. rusuli armia ara marto ganicdis sakmarisi
piradi Semadgenlobis naklebobas, aramed yvelaferTan erTad kargavs im
mcireoden kompenteturobas, romelic mas gaaCnda. Tavdacvis
saministros samxedro-sawvrTneli institutebi ver uzrunvelyofen
rusuli armiisTvis sakmarisi oficrebis raodenobas. savele
aRWurvilobis SekeTeba da remonti SeuZlebelia, radgan SesakeTebeli
da saremonto dawesebulebebi, saTadarigo nawilebi da saremonto
teqnikosebis didi deficitia. zemoTqmuli exeba rogorc sahaero
Zalebsa da armias, aseve sazRvao flotsac. ruseTis SeiaraRebuli
Zalebi, agreTve, ganicdian sabrZolo sawvrTneli sistemebis,
Tanamedrove simulatorebis da kompiuteruli teqnikis simcires.52 bolo
8 weliwadis ganmavlobaSi SeiaraRebis sistemebis damzadebis da SeZenis
dafinansebam seriozuli dacema ganicada. sahaero da sazRvao
xomaldebisTvis, saxmeleTo aRWurvilobisa da komunikaciebisTvis
damzadebis grZelvadiani programebis mxolod erTeulebi arsebobs,
romlebmac ukve miaRwies wina-dasamzadebel statuss, magram ar
51 Isby, David C. - The Hungry Army”, Jane’s Intelligence Review; February 1993. pg 5152 Marshall-Hasdell, Dennis J. - The Russian Air Force – Prospects for the Future”, Jane’s
Intelligence Review; December 1993, pg 532
ruseTis samxedro Zala tato kvamlaZe
saqarTvelos sazogadoebriv saqmeTa instituti 35
SeuZliaT winsvla manam, vidre ar ganxorcieldeba maTi normaluri
dafinanseba. dResdReisobiT ruseTis mTavroba ar akmayofilebs yvelaze
aucilebel saWiroebebs: xelfasebs, kvebas, sacxovrebel adgilebs da
adekvatur samedicino momsaxurebas, romelic esaWiroeba ruseTis
samxedro mosamsaxureebs. Sedegad isini ewirebian moralur
degradacias, dezertirobas, samxedro samsaxurisgan Tavis daRwevas da
rac yvelaze SemaSfoTebelia, dabal sabrZolo mzadyofnas53.
SeiaraRebuli Zalebis reabilitaciis mTavari programis gareSe,
romelic unda daiwyos maTi mniSvnelobis naTeli warmosaxviT da
gagrZeldes operatiuli cvlilebebisTvis da misi mosamsaxureebisTvis
sabazo sasisocxlo pirobebisTvis aucilebeli finansuri mxardaWeriT,
es krizisi gaxdeba ufro mkacri da ruseTis sazogadoebis
stabilurobaSi warmoqmnis mniSvnelovan safrTxeebs. ruseTis
SeiaraRebuli Zalebi dRes dReisobiT ver uzrunvelyofen warmatebul
brZolas, gansakuTrebiT Tanamedrove aRWurvilobis da ukanaskneli
teqnologiuri miRwevis mqone mowinaaRmdegesTan, magaliTad iseTTan,
rogoricaa nato an SeerTebuli Statebi. ruseTis armia faqtiurad
kolapsis piras dgas da misi nebismieri mcdeloba mimarTulia ruseTis
aucilebeli usafrTxoebis zomebis gadarCenisa da dacvisaken.
adekvaturi, gawvrTnili, xarisxiani cocxali Zala udavod nebismier
sabrZolo davalebaSi misaRwevi warmatebis safuZvelia. ruseTis mier
gamoqveynebuli samxedro Zalis moTxovnebze dayrdnobiT igi cocxali
Zalis danakliss ganicdis da misi samxedro mosamsaxureebis xarisxi
bevr SekiTxvas badebs sxvadasxva instanciaze. ruseTis samxedro
SenaerTebis umravlesoba Sefasebulia rogorc araefeqturi da
ganuviTarebeli; amasTan resursebi, romlebsac isini moixmaren SeiZleba
sxva ufro mniSvnelovan sferoSi daixarjos. ufro metic, saxalxo
mobilizacia, romelic mimdinare gawvevasTan aris dakavSirebuli,
pirdapir kavSirSia evropaSi sabWoTa kavSiris nato-sTan
dapirispirebasTan. ruseTma aseve memkvidreobiT miiRo profesional
oficerTa uzarmazari korpusebi, romlebic SeCveulni iyvnen
privilegirebul statuss, dasaqmebas cxovrebis bolomde, sakmaod
mdidar resursebs da usityvo morCilebas mis qvemoT mdgomTagan.
53 Duggleby, Robert W. - The Disintegration of the Russian Armed Forces, The Journal of
Slavic Military Studies; June 1998. pg 2
ruseTis samxedro Zala tato kvamlaZe
saqarTvelos sazogadoebriv saqmeTa instituti 36
moskovs arc sWirdeboda da arc SeeZlo Seenaxa oficerTa es
raodenoba, magram armiidan daTxovnis procesis dawyebam warmoSva
pensiebis, gansaxlebisa da xelaxla dasaqmebis problemebi. im
oficrebisaTvis ki, romlebic SemorCnen ruseTis armias Sokis
momgvreli aRmoCnda cvlilebebi samxedro sferoSi, sadac statusi aRar
iyo sakmarisi; ar arisebobda araviTari resursebi; SenaerTebi
savalalo mdgomareobaSi iyo, xolo kariera praqtikulad ararealuri
gaxda.
4.2 ruseTis sazRvrebi
ruseTis mimdinare sazRvrebi sakmaod aramdgradia da ruseTis
mosaxleoba ergeba da eZebs sakuTar Tavs sruliad axal saerTaSoriso
garemoSi. ruseTis dasavleTiT da samxreTiT dominireben yofili
sabWoTa respublikebi, romlebic maRali xarisxis politikur-
ekonomikuri da socialuri arastabilurobiT gamoirCevian da am
arastabilurbis wyalobiT sakmaod ioli samizneebi xdebian iseTi
gavlenis sferoebisTvis, rogoricaa magaliTad radikaluri islamuri
fundametalizmi. zogierTs ki sruliad safuZvliani dava aqvs
erTmaneTsa da ruseTis federacias Soris. moskovis sabWoTa stilis
armia SeuTavsebeli aRmoCnda ruseTis demokratiul transformaciasTan.
politikur reformas rogorc wesi mosdevs samxedro reforma, magram
ruseTis demokratizacia iyo Seferxebuli, aradamajerebeli da
dausrulebeli54. ruseTis politikuri sistema ar aris arc
srulfasovani diqtatura da arc Camoyalibebuli demokratia, aramed
warmoadgens raRac Sualedurs am ors Soris. igi moZraobs
avtokratiulobisaken. ruseTma aseve memkvidreobiT miiRo
Camoyalibebuli Tavdacvis saministro da mTavarsardloba, romelic
SeCveuli iyo samoqalaqoebsa da samxedroebs Soris urTierTobis
totalitarul sistemas, daubrkolebel saSvs saxelmwifo resursebze,
politikur gavlenas da socialur sxvaobebs. am samxedro wyobam erT
dRes Tavisi Tavi demokratiis Senebis procesis centrSi aRmoaCina. misi
avtoriteti kiTxvis niSnis qveS dadga; resursebze xeli ar miuwvdebaT,
socialuri statusi daeca da aRmoCnda, rom isini pasuxs ageben
54 Miller, Steven E. - Moscow’s Military Power: Russia’s Search for Security in an Age of
Transition in Anne Read ed., The Russian Military; Boston, 2004. pg 103
ruseTis samxedro Zala tato kvamlaZe
saqarTvelos sazogadoebriv saqmeTa instituti 37
samoqalaqo maRalCinosnebis winaSe, Tavdacvis saministros samoqalaqo
maRalCinosnebis CaTvliT.
4.3 birTvuli safrTxe
dasavleTis SeSfoTebisa da yuradRebis koncentraciis erT-erTi
ZiriTadi mizezi sabWoTa kavSirSi arsebuli atomuri iaraRisgan
gamowveuli safrTxe iyo. sabWoTa kavSiris daSlis Semdeg aRmoCnda,
rom msoflios udidesi atomuri iaraRis rezervebi ruseTis xelSi
gadavida. es warmoaCens moskovis ambicias iyos zesaxelmwifo. ufro
metic, ruseTis tradiciuli SesaZleblobebis Semcirebam, romelic
ekonomikuri situaciiT iyo gamowveuli, TvalSisacemi gaxada qveynis
atomuri arsenali, romelsac ruseTSi sakuTari usafrTxoebis
uzrunvelyofisaTvis idealur saSualebad miiCneven. yvelafris
miuxedavad, CineTis strategiuli birTvuli potenciali 2010-2015 ww-Si
SeiZleba gaizardos misi amJamindeli 300 erTeulidan 600-900 erTeul
birTvul qobinamde. es sagonebelSi Caagdebs ruseTis birTvul
SesaZleblobebs. dRevandeli ruseTisTvis, Tavisi amJamindeli
taqtikuri birTvuli arsenalis gamoyeneba CineTTan samxedro
dapirispirebaSi kiTxvis niSnis qveS dgas, radgan ruseTis yvela
ZiriTadi qalaqi da samxedro Stabi uSualo siaxloveSi imyofeba
CineTis sazRvarTan. arastrategiuli birTvuli SeiaraRebis gamoyeneba
SesaZlebeli gaxdeba mxolod maSin, Tu oficialuri moskovi
gadawyvets Sori manZilis taqtikuri birTvuli SeiaraRebis gamoyenebas
da daemuqreba CineTis siRrmiseul teritorias da ZiriTad qalaqebs,
romlebic ruseT-CineTis saerTo sazRvars miRma imyofebian. potenciuri
aRmosavluri frontidan Tavdacvis am dilemebis amocnobiT ruseTma
unda ganaviTaros axali Taobis taqtikur birTvuli SeiaraReba da
dabali dazianebis mqone sabrZolo maragebi, romlebic mizans miaRweven
orive – taqtikuri da strategiuli - miznis miRwevis sistemebiT;
magaliTad iseTiT, rogoric aris axali iskander 400 km mokle manZilis
raketa55.
55 Arbatov, Alexei G. – The transformation of Russian Military Doctrine: Lessons Learned
from Kosovo and Chechnya in The Marshall Center Papers No.2, The George C. Marshall
European Center for Security Studies, Garmisch-Partenkirchen, 2000. pp 16-23
ruseTis samxedro Zala tato kvamlaZe
saqarTvelos sazogadoebriv saqmeTa instituti 38
ruseTi ar iyenebs e.w. iaraRs masiuri TavdacvisTvis, romelic
warmoadgens eleqtromagnitur, kinetikur da ara-sasikvdilo qimiur
elementebs, aRniSnuli iaraRi aris ufro humanuri vidre sxva
saSualebebi. mas iyeneben diplomatiis mxardasaWerad, rom ar gamoiyenon
agresiuli qmedebebi da ar gaurTuldes saxelmwifos iaraRis
gamoyenebis gamarTlebis mcdelobisaTvis rTuli da xangrZlivi
argumentacia. aseve, misi mizania msxverplis minimumamde dayvana rogorc
samxedro da samoqalaqo mosamsaxureebis, aseve garemosi56.
manam, sanam agresiuli, pozitiuri zomebi ar iqneba miRebuli sabazo
sakiTxebis gamosasworeblad, romlebic Tavisi mdgomareobiT Wirs
aCenen ruseTis samxedro birTvze, SorsmWvreteli reformebi ver
daeuflebian situacias da ruseTis SeiaraRebuli Zalebis
SesaZlebloba - efeqturad CaerTos sabrZolo moqmedebebSi - eWvqveS
iqneba.
56 Morris, Chris, Morris, Janet & Baines, Thomas - Weapons of Mass Protection:
Nonlethality, Information Warfare and Airpower in the Age of Chaos, Airpower Journal, vol.
9, #1 Spring; 1995. p. 5
ruseTis samxedro Zala tato kvamlaZe
saqarTvelos sazogadoebriv saqmeTa instituti 39
5 daskva
istoriis bu Ramis frinvelia. warsuli mTlianobaSi Seucnobelia da
mxolod dRis bolos Tu gamoavlens is Tavis mkrTal konturebs.
momavals verasdros gansazRvrav da mxolod warsuli Tu gvikarnaxebs,
rom cvlileba xSirad radikaluri da gauTvaliswinebeli ufroa, vidre
mzardi da gansazRvruli. Tumca, amdeni gaurkvevlobis miuxedavad,
istoriuli gamocdileba rCeba erTaderT xelmisawvdom megzurad
orivegan, awymosa da alternativebis rigTan, romelsac Tan axlavs
momavali.57
kargi strategia ar cnobs permamentuli gamarjvebis cnebas. aseTi
gamarjvebebi ubralod ar arsebobs, arsebobs mxolod fazis garkveuli
monakveTebi permamentul brZolaSi, raTa xeli SevuwyoT da davicvaT
Cveni erovnuli interesebi. yoveli fazis monakveTze safrTxeebi unda
damarcxdnen an maT ukan daixion. saerTaSoriso sistema icvleba imis
mixedviT, Tu rogor eSveba Zveli Zalebi da Cndebian axlebi; da saxlSi
resursebi gadanawildeba axali prioritetebis mxardasaWerad.
dokumentebis umetesobas, romelsac iReben ruseTSi, maleve iviwyeben da
aranair gavlenas ar axdenen politikaze. Zalian cotas Tu axsovs ra
ewera Zvel koncefciaSi, an saerTod arsebobda Tu ara igi. ar aris
gamoricxuli, rom aseve umniSvnelo iqneba bolo dokumentic.
ruseTisa da nato-s urTierTobebze saubrisas sifrTxilis gamoCena
gvmarTebs. am urTierTobebis status-qvo mudmivad icvleba da amitom
maTi grZelvadiani prognozireba moklebulia saR azrs. Tumca es
urTierTobebi mniSvnelovan rols TamaSoben ruseTis samxedro
reformisTvis: Tu aSS (an nato) ar aris oponenti, maSin ruseTs
dasWirdeba armiis aRmSenebloba iq, sadac strategiuli seqtori
Semcirebuli iqneba mis minimumamde, xolo ZiriTadi yuradReba daeTmoba
profesionaluri, kompaqturi SeiaraRebuli Zalebis ganviTarebas,
romelTac ar gauWirdebaT efeqturi sabrZolo moqmedebebis warmoeba
ruseTis federaciis farglebSi da mis gareT. Tu ruseTi gaxdeba
57 Knox, MacGregor – What History Can Tell Us About “New Strategic Environment” in
Williamson Murray ed., Brassey’s Mersbon American Defense Annual, 1995-1996;
Washington DC, 1996. pp 1-25
ruseTis samxedro Zala tato kvamlaZe
saqarTvelos sazogadoebriv saqmeTa instituti 40
dasavleTis grZelvadiani partniori, ar iarsebebs axali masiuri
xomaldmSeneblobis programis saWiroeba58.
mxolod erovnuli interesebi rCeba SedarebiT mudmiv cnebad da axali
pirobebsa da garemoSi, axali gamowvevebis winaSe strategebisa da
kompetenturi pirebisagan xelSewyobasa da dacvas moiTxovs.
ruseTis samxedro Zala ukve aRar warmoadgens saSiSroebas
saerTaSoriso sazogadoebisaTvis da msoflioc aRar aris mxolod
moskovis mokavSire da mowinaaRmdege banakebad gayofili. ruseTi
ZiriTadi samxedro Zalaa evraziaSi, Tumca mis mniSvnelobas
mniSvnelovnad gansazRvravs atomuri iaraRis qona.
ruseTi ar aris mxolod axali saxelmwifo; igi imyofeba fondamenturi
politikisa da socialuri transformaciis centrSi, romlis mizania
demokratizacia, Ria da gamWvirvale sazogadoeba da sabazro ekonomika.
ruseTs dasWirdeba Seqmnas axali samxedro aparati, romelic upasuxebs
mis axal adgilobriv politikur realobas. sabWoTa kavSirisgan
memkvidreobiT miRebuli samxedro organizacia da Tavdacvis
biurokratia erTmniSvnelovnad aRar gamodgeba demokratiis gzaze
mdgomi ruseTisaTvis. es mZime administracia aris im totalitaruli
warsulis gamoZaxili, romlis daviwyebas cdilobs rusebis
umravlesoba. sabWoTa kavSiris Tavdacvis saministros hqonda farTo
avtonomiuri struqtura, romlis moTxovnebsa da saWiroebebsac
emsaxureboda qveyana da sazogadoeba. misi moqmedebebi ar
kontrolirdeboda arc sazogadoebis arc politikis mier. es sqema aRar
aris misaRebi demokratiuli ruseTisaTvis.
ruseTma ver Seqmna memkvidreobiTi samTavrobo struqtura, raTa
gaetarebinaT efeqturi, an racionaluri Tavdacvis politika. man ver
ganaxorciela efeqturi, samoqalaqo, demokratiuli kontroli samxedro
SenaerTebze, paramilitarul da personalurad kontrolirebad
samxedro Zalebze. man ver Seqmna da verc ganaviTara ruseTis erovnuli
58 Lt. Col. Skelton, Jill S. - National Defense Fellow, Institute for the Study of Conflict,
Ideology and Policy, Boston University; 2000. pg 34
ruseTis samxedro Zala tato kvamlaZe
saqarTvelos sazogadoebriv saqmeTa instituti 41
interesebis koncefcia, an strategia maTi dacvisaTvis ruseTis realuri
potencialisa da Zalebis gaTvaliswinebiT; ar Seuqmnia arc ruseTis
erovnuli interesebis safrTxeebis sapirwone Zala, arc ganusazRvria
erovnuli interesebi an safrTxeebi. arc qveynis SigniT politikuri
transformacia, arc saerTaSoriso cvlilebebi, arc biujetis
katastrofuli kleba, arc omSi marcxi ar aRmoCnda sakmarisi ruseTSi
Zirfesviani samxedro reformis dasawyebad. Sesabamisad, ramdenadac
Zlierad ar unda Candes ruseTSi reformebis survili, faqtiurad
SeuZlebelia mis win arsebuli winaaRmdegobebis daZleva.
ruseTis samxedro SesaZleblobebis gansazRvraze muSaoba Cemi
molodinebisgan gacilebiT gansxvavebuli aRmoCnda ori ZiriTadi
mizezis gamo: upirveles yovlisa, am konkretul sakiTxze informaciis
raodenoba imdenad didia, rom nebismieri daikargeboda am did
informaciul morevSi, xolo meores - mxriv aRniSnul sakiTxze sruli
analitikuri namuSevris mopoveba, romelSic ganxilulia ruseTis
samxedro manqanis aqtualuri problemebi, praqtikulad SeuZlebelia.
unda aRiniSnos, rom ruseTis SeiaraRebul Zalebs SesaZleblobebi jer
kidev did gza aqvs gasavleli im armiidan, romelic man memkvidreobiT
miiRo, im armiamde, romelic upasuxebs ruseTis saSiano da sagareo
mdgomareobas.
ruseTis samxedro Zala tato kvamlaZe
saqarTvelos sazogadoebriv saqmeTa instituti 42
bibliografia
wignebi:
makiaveli, nikolo. 1984 – mTavari, mTarg. baCana bregvaZe,
gamomcemloba `sabWoTa saqarTvelo~; Tbilisi;
Cleveld, Martin van. 1991 - The Transformation of War; New York;
Russett, Bruce M. 1992 – Grasping the Democratic Peace: principles for a post-
Cold War world, Princeton University Press; New Jersay;
Toffler, Alvin & Toffler, Heidi. 1993 - War and Anti-War: Survival at the Dawn of
the 21st Century; Boston;
Murray, William & Knox, MacGregor & Bernstein, Alvin. 1994 - The making of
strategy: Rulers, states, and war; Cambridge;
Metz, Steven & Kievit, James. 1995 - Strategy and the revolution in military affairs:
from theory to policy, US Army War College;
Gray, Colin S. 2001 - Modern Strategy, Oxford University Press; Oxford;
Knox, Macgregor & Murray. Williamson 2001 –The Dynamics of Military
Revolution 1300-2050; Cambridge;
Collins, John M. 2002 - Military Strategy: Principles, Practices and Historical
Perspectives, Yale University Press;
Bryman, Alan. 2003 - Social Research Methods 2nd ed;
Freeman, Chas W. Jr. 2005 - Arts of Power: Stratecraft and Diplomacy, US
Institute of Peace; Washington DC;
Исаев, Б.А. & Баранов, Н.А. 2003 - Политические Отношения и
Политический Процесс в Современной России; Санкт-Петербург,
analitikuri statiebi:
kaSia, janri. 2009 - kulturis paradigma da gamowvevebi cvalebad
geopolitikur dafaze, strategiuli kvlevebi #2; Tbilisi;
TevzaZe, daviT. 2009 - momavlis omi globalizaciis WrilSi da
saqarTvelos usafrTxoebis problema, strategiuli kvlevebi #2;
Tbilisi;
mWedliSvili, aleqsandre. 2009 - erovnuli usafrTxoebis strategiis
Seqmnis principi, strategiuli kvlevebi #2; Tbilisi;
Sengelia, oTar. 2010 - evropuli `wonasworoba~, strategiuli
kvlevebi #3; Tbilisi;
ruseTis samxedro Zala tato kvamlaZe
saqarTvelos sazogadoebriv saqmeTa instituti 43
Hantington, Samuel P. 1958 – Arms Races: Prerequisites andResults in Carl J.
Friedrich and Seymour T. Harris eds., Public Policy; Cambridge;
Jervis, Robert. 1989 - The Meaning of the Nuclear Revolution: Statecraft and the
Prospect of Armageddon, Cornell Studies in Security Affairs; New York;
Isby, David C. 1993 - The Hungry Army, Jane’s Intelligence Review; February;
Marshall-Hasdell, Dennis J. 1993 - The Russian Air Force – Prospects for the
Future”, Jane’s Intelligence Review; December;
Shalikashvili, John M. 1995 - National Military Strategy of the United States: A
strategy of Flexible and Selective Engagement; Washington DC;
Morris, Chris, Morris, Janet & Baines, Thomas. 1995 - Weapons of Mass
Protection: Nonlethality, Information Warfare and Airpower in the Age of Chaos,
Airpower Journal, vol. 9, No.1 Spring;
Dick, Charles J. 1996 - A Bear without Claws: The Russian Army in the Nineties,
Research Paper C89, CSRC (RMA Sandhurst);
Knox, MacGregor. 1996 - What History Can Tell Us About “New Strategic
Environment” in Williamson Murray ed., Brassey’s Mersbon American Defense
Annual, 1995-1996; Washington DC;
Duggleby, Robert W. 1998 - The Disintegration of the Russian Armed Forces, The
Journal of Slavic Military Studies; June;
Sergunin, Alexander. 2000 - In Search of a New Paradigm: the Russian Nationl
Security Concept of 1997 in Peace and Security, GESIS – Leibniz Institute for the
Social Sciences; Mannheim;
Lt. Col. Skelton, Jill S. 2000 - National Defense Fellow, Institute for the Study of
Conflict, Ideology and Policy, Boston University;
Arbatov, Alexei G. 2000 - The transformation of Russian Military Doctrine: Lessons
Learned from Kosovo and Chechnya in The Marshall Center Papers No.2, The
George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies, Garmisch-Partenkirchen;
Miller, Steven E. 2004 - Moscow’s Military Power: Russia’s Search for Security in
an Age of Transition in Anne Read ed., The Russian Military; Boston;
O’Rourke, Ronald. 2006 - Defense Transformation: Background and Oversight
Issues for Congress; Oxford;
oficialuri dokumentebi:
saqarTvelos erovnuli samxedro strategia; 2005 –
http://www.mod.gov.ge/?page=-10&Id=3&lang=0;
ruseTis samxedro Zala tato kvamlaZe
saqarTvelos sazogadoebriv saqmeTa instituti 44
saqarTvelos erovnuli usafrTxoebis koncefcia; 2005 -
http://www.mod.gov.ge/?page=-10&Id=9&lang=0;
Field Manual No. 1 – Headquarters, United States Department of the Army;
Washington DC, 2005. pp 20-21
ВОЕННАЯ ДОКТРИНА РОССИЙСКОЙ ФЕДЕРАЦИИ - Утверждена Указом Президента
Российской Федерации от 2 ноября 1993 г.
ВОЕННАЯ ДОКТРИНА РОССИЙСКОЙ ФЕДЕРАЦИИ - Утверждена Указом Президента
Российской Федерации от 21 апреля 2000 г.;
КОНЦЕПЦИЯ НАЦИОНАЛЬНОЙ БЕЗОПАСНОСТИ РОССИЙСКОЙ ФЕДЕРАЦИИ -
Утверждена Указом Президента Российской Федерации № 24 от 10.01. 2000 г.
publikaciebi:
The Military Balance 2009-10. 2010 - International Institute for Strategic Studies,
Oxford University Press; London.
saqarTvelos sazogadoebriv saqmeTa instituti i
danarTi # 1
suraTi # 1: msoflioSi SeiaraRebuli Zalebis raodenoba saxelmwifos mixedviT 2008 wlis monacemebiT
saqarTvelos sazogadoebriv saqmeTa instituti ii
danarTi # 2
2,629.6
4,823.2
7,305.6 8,943.2
10,830.5
13,283.2
17,048.1
21,624.6
25,882.9
32,998.9
1.4 19.0 171.5 610.7 1,428.5
2,007.8 2,342.5
41,660.0 40,510.0
39,310.0
-
5,000.0
10,000.0
15,000.0
20,000.0
25,000.0
30,000.0
35,000.0
40,000.0
45,000.0
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
diagrama # 1: ruseTis federaciis mTlaini Sida produqti (pSp) rusul rublSi 1991-2010 wlebSi
saqarTvelos sazogadoebriv saqmeTa instituti iii
0.960
2,803C C C P
2,376C C C P
1.500 1.450
1.400 1.300
1.200
0.960
1.195
1.195
1.195 1.162
1.162
1.207
1.207
1.027 1.027 1.027
1.027
0.500
1.000
1.500
2.000
2.500
3.000
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
diagrama # 2: ruseTis federaciis SeiaraRebuli Zalebis raodenoba 1991-2010 wlebSi
SeniSvna: 1992 wlis 7 maiss Seiqmna ruseTis federaciis SeiaraRebuli Zalebi
saqarTvelos sazogadoebriv saqmeTa instituti iv
5,86%C C C P
4.50%
4.20%
4.67%
3.45%
3.18%
3.47%
2.85%
2.29%1.96%
2.45%
2.43%
2.46%
2.53%
2.45% 2.48%
2.48% 2.41%
3.17%
3.87%
0.00%
1.00%
2.00%
3.00%
4.00%
5.00%
6.00%
7.00%
8.00%
9.00%
10.00%
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
diagrama # 3: ruseTis federaciis Tavdacvis biujetis wili msp-dan procentebSi 1991-2010 wlebSi
SeniSvna: 1992 wlis 7 maiss Seiqmna ruseTis federaciis SeiaraRebuli Zalebi
saqarTvelos sazogadoebriv saqmeTa instituti v
0.82 9.01 72.03 406.26
495.69 801.85
814.00
817.65
1,345.67
2,140.54
2,852.88 3,379.12 3,445.23
4,114.72
6,573.88 6,660.26
8,214.80
10,409.00
12,119.00
12,532.00
-
2,000.00
4,000.00
6,000.00
8,000.00
10,000.00
12,000.00
14,000.00
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
diagrama # 4: ruseTis federaciis Tavdacvis biujeti rusul rublSi 1991-2010 wlebSi
SeniSvna: 1992 wlis 7 maiss Seiqmna ruseTis federaciis SeiaraRebuli Zale