Post on 31-Jan-2023
Missing Calories
A study on paradox of increasing Food Production & Declining
Food Security in India
"There are people in the world so hungry, that God Cannot
appear to them except in the form of bread.”
OBJECTIVE OF THE STUDY
To study the cause of Food Insecurity in India.
Solving the Puzzle of Increasing Food Production & Decrease in Calorie
Consumption.
Suggest a few alternatives to improve landscape of food security in India,
helping to eliminate hunger related problems.
INTRODUCTION
Despite rapid economic growth that India has experienced in the last decade or so,
malnutrition and hunger continue to present key policy challenges.
Availability of food is enough to satisfy the population’s needs-disconnect between food
production , increase in inflation & decline in nutrition levels is a worrying trend.
The United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) estimates that India is home
to more than 230 million undernourished people, which constitutes 21% of the national
population (FAO, 2009).
The country’s hunger situation is described as “alarming” on the Global Hunger Index (a
compilation of population undernourishment, child malnutrition, & mortality).
Food Insecurity
Uncertain Food Prdn. Unequal Food Distribution
India is performing even worse than the Sub-Saharan Africa
Despite compelling evidence of poor nutrition, hunger and poor
access to food in India, the extent of food security and the
characteristics of the food insecure populations have not been
adequately quantified.
INTRODUCTION
Food security- multi-faceted concept
The UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) defines food security as ‘food
that is available at all times, that all persons have means of access to it, that it is
nutritionally adequate in terms of quantity, quality and variety, and that it is
acceptable within the given culture’ (FAO, 1996).
Thus, food security may be treated as a combination of food availability, food
access and food utilization
Key Findings India is home to about 1/5 of the World’s hungry population with absolute
numbers touching 231 million, ranking 66th out of 85 countries on the Global Hunger Index, performing even worse than Sub-Saharan Africa. Average calorie intake & food grains consumption has declined over time in
India even as real consumption expenditures (and by most measures real per capita incomes) have increased.
The income share of India’s bottom 20% population has grown only marginally
from 8.8% in 1991 to 9.3% in 2012,whereas during the same period, food prices
have grown by about 400% in Real Terms.
While the government’s Food Subsidy budget has grown from Rs.2850 crores
in 1991 to Rs.75000 crores in 2012,a rise of about 2531% , Per Capita
Foodgrains availability has dropped substantially from 186.2Kgs/Per Person/
Year to 159.8Kgs/Per Person/Year or almost 14.17%.
India’s annual foodgrains output has grown nearly 25.07% from 1991,whereas
population has grown by about 41.52%,effectively meaning food output has not
kept pace with increase in population & that more people are being pushed
towards a food insecure future
Agriculture’s contribution to overall GDP has declined significantly to about
14% whereas agriculture’s share in employment is still above 50%
An increase in Per capita GNI is negatively correlated with consumption of
calories,which means that increase in Per Capita GNI explains decrease in
Calorie Consumption.
Key Findings
Methodology Adopted
STEP I 1.Divided Food Security into two-Physical & Economic dimensions.
2.Collected,Sorted & Collated data for analysis in subsequent stages
STEP II Plotted graphs using:
Ø Economic indicators in relation to Agriculture viz. YoY GDP growth, Share of
agriculture as % of GDP, YoY Total & Agricultural exports
Ø Access to food indicators (using YoY change in Foodgrains Production, Food
Subsidy, Food Stocks, Offtake under PDS & Availability in grams/person/day)
Ø Food Expenditure indicators ( using Per Capita Income, Change in income of
bottom 20% population, Rural household monthly expenditure-general, Rural
household monthly expenditure-Food, & YoY Food Inflation%.)
Ø Nutrition indicators(Calorie Consumption & Malnutrition prevelance by weight)
Methodology Adopted STEP III Studied the hypothesis in terms of trade that productivity growth(YoY
change in Yield per Hectare)>=General Inflation, Food Inflation Level.
Correlated per capita GNI with Per Capita Calorie Consumption.
Regressed non-food general expenditure on calorie consumption.
Conclusion
Food Insecurity
due to Food Budget
Squeeze
Declining foodgrains Production per head
Absence of effective deliverance mechanisms
Stagnant income share of Bottom 20% population
Pertinent Concerns/Implications
Today,it is the farmer who needs nourishment.
Since,still more than 50% of working population is directly or
indirectly engaged in agricultural activities,this decling trend is a
major cause of concern & pushing agriculture labour towards food
insecurity.
Exports per se are increasing, while agricultural exports are
declining-our farmers are being denied a lucrative market.
Pertinent Concerns/Implications
Food Stock is decreasing in recent years,YoY Food Production &
Foodgrains availability per day are nearly constant & the Food
stocks are highly volatile-pushing the country towards a food
insecure future.
Growth in food grains production has not kept pace with the rate
of increase of population
Food Security has grown from Rs. 2550 crores in 1991 to over Rs.72,000 crores in 2011 but offtake under the PDS is declining-which poses another question-Where is the money going & poses questions on efficacy of PDS.
The BIG Question?
Inflation levels have always stayed above the growth level of income share of
bottom 20% population. In the last 20 years, growth has been miniscule from 8.8%
to 9.3%Since, the income share has always remained below the YoY food inflation
levels, this effectively means that this bottom 20% section of population is unable to
purchase enough food & as a result is food insecure due to poverty & galloping
inflation levels.
Another important inference that can be drawn from the graph is the sudden
increase in general, non-food expenditure over food expenditure. Around the year
2000, the year on year expenditure on both food & non food group has fallen
drastically. However, the fall in food expenditure has been larger & consumers have
had to spend more on other commodities, resulting in a budget squeeze for buying
food grains. Since then, general commodities have had more share in the budget
than food grains.
Since, an increase in general expenditure explains a budget squeeze, it can be
safely hypothesized that an increase in general expenditure means slight reduction
in food consumption.
Pertinent Concerns/Implications
Per Capita Caloric consumption has decreased from 2270 Kcal/Day in 1972 to
2020 Kcal/day in 2009 in rural areas & from 2120 Kcal/day in 1972 to 1946 Kcal/
day in urban areas
Since,there is an increase in percapita income & overall numbers of food
production,this picture is a big paradox!
Per Capita GNI is negatively correlated with Rural Kcal/Day consumption by a factor of -.908 & Urban Kcal/Day consumption by a factor of -.826,which opposes the widely held belief that calorie consumption must increase with an increase in per capita GNI. Rather, calorie consumption decreases with increase in income which is startling!
Pertinent Concerns/Implications
The Big Concern-
YoY % change in food availability per capita is declining & therefore,
Decline in Malnutrition prevalence by weight is slowing.
Nutrition II
Role of Productivity Growth We hypothesize that Productivity Growth (or YoY Change in Yield
per Hectare) >= YoY General Inflation level,Food Inflation level for a nation to be food secure
IT CAN BE CLEARLY SEEN FROM THE GRAPH THAT FARM PRODUCTIVITY HAS BEEN INCONSISTENT & FOR A MAJOR PART HAS BEEN A LAGGARD COMPARED TO YOY FOOD & GENERAL INFLATION LEVELS. SINCE, FARM PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH HAS NOT KEPT PACE WITH INFLATION LEVELS , WE CAN SAY THAT IT EXPLAINS THE CURRENT SITUATION OF FOOD INSECURITY
Concluding the study:Interpretations
Over the past two decades, despite rising incomes, a steady increase in non-food essential expenditures has “squeezed” the food budget keeping it from increasing in real terms; making people consume lesser food
Decline in per capita output of
food
Decline in food availability points to serious anomalies in the Distribution channels since the government’s s u b s i d y h a s r i s e n magnanimously by nearly 2600% in the same period.
However, the most telling factor has been stagnant share of income of the bottom 20% population, which has risen only .5% over the course of past 20 odd years, which hasn’t kept pace with the YoY food inflation levels, pushing the poor further into poverty .
Recommendations Overhaul of agricultural practices is required by infusing latest technologies, major
infrastructure programmes- so that bulk of the country that faces shortage of water is
not dependant on rain for agriculture. It wil help to improve efficiency of agriculture by
increasing Productivity & consequently food production per head.
Direct Cash Subsidy is a great way of checking leakages in Public Distribution
System. The objectives of the Public Distribution System-PDS are good but it was
failed to accomplish that objective due to the corruption. PDS is better way to tackle
the problem of food speculation of private traders.. However, the cruel reality is that
despite this huge food production, a huge buffer stock and an extensive network of
PDS, millions of people are food insecure and many even die of starvation. Food
Insecurity and tragedy hit different parts of the country every year.
An estimate states that the government spends Rs.3.5 for every 1 Rupee to reach
the beneficiary. Thus direct cash subsidy, linked with Aadhar helps to ensure that
subsidy reaches the intended beneficiary & slash the cost by nearly half. The
government can reach out to double the number of poor using a similar amount of
subsidy as it does now.
Money saved from subsidy leakage needs to be further reinvested in generating
more employment opportunities, thereby reducing poverty & improving income of the
bottom 20% of the population.
Finally,a wrong notion is that export of food is detrimental to a nation’s food security.
I believe,it is high time farmers are given incentives to export. If Top corporations are
allowed to sell their merchandise in other countries, why deny farmers a lucrative
market? It will help in more efficient agriculture-production of more food for India and
the world & flow of good global practices in the agrarian sector.
The Right to Food must be implemented through PDS network to make sure that no
one goes hungry. Again, the money that is saved from fiscal prudence & direct cash
subsidy can be used to setup better deliverance & storage structures. Since, nearly
12% of the total food produced goes waste every year (various estimates)it is better to
distribute it to the poorest sections for free (and not destroy food deliberately and
dispose it off to alcohol distilleries-as is a widespread practice in Punjab)
Antayodaya Anna Yojna, Akshay Patra & Midday Meal schemes should be
consolidated, restructured & enforced through local civic bodies to ensure proper
penetration to the children & at-risk poor.
Scope for Further Research A lot of study has been done with regard to food insecurity in India, but most studies focus
on poverty and food insecurity in general and not much has been done to link the two with
agriculture.
It is said that agriculture plays a vital role in poverty alleviation by reducing prices,
creating employment and improving farm income and wages for farm workers. These
areas also need to be investigated to determine whether agricultural jobs that are created
through agriculture have a positive impact to food security since most jobs in agriculture
are seasonal and not sustainable employment like in other sectors.
Since there are a number of methods used to assess food security in the country, it is
essential to determine specific methods that can be adopted by agriculture to determine
the impact of agricultural contribution to food security.
Since,Increase in agricultural productivity is also one of the major solutions for this
problem,there should be extensive research on integrating inputs and outputs-the supply of
high yielding varieties of seeds, fertilizers, and irrigation, supported by credit alongside
remunerative output prices. A second “green revolution” is essential to stimulate food
production in India.
Challenges
Promotion of different crops and livestock which can enrich people’s diets need to be
considered.
The provision of appropriate support to farmers, not only to improve the quality and
quantity of outputs, but also to allow innovative farmers to move from subsistence to
more commercial and market oriented production.
Since,India is a diverse nation,food habits which are consistent with beliefs need to be
promoted. A concerted effort in this regard of research and implementation is required.