Post on 29-Apr-2023
Economic Analysis of the Tornado Impact upon Two Communities
by
Maribel Martinez, M.S.
A Dissertation
In
WIND SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING
Submitted to the Graduate Faculty of Texas Tech University in
Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for
the Degree of
DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY
Approved By
Bradley Ewing, Chair
Jamie Kruse
Daan Liang
Fred Hartmeister Dean of the Graduate School
May, 2009
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
It is with deepest appreciation that I thank my advisor Dr. Bradley Ewing for his
assistance, guidance, and mentoring throughout my research. I am also grateful to
committee members Dr. Jamie Kruse of the Center for Natural Hazards Research and Dr.
Daan Liang for the time, ideas, and support they have contributed over the course of the
dissertation. I would also like to thank all my family for being there for me throughout
my college career in the ups and downs, and helping me in too many ways to mention.
To Homero and Maria Martinez, Alfonso and Cynthia Martinez, Andy and Alma
McElhannon, and Homer Martinez, words can not express my gratitude for your
unending support and unconditional love. I also thank God whose strength and guidance
have carried me through.
Funding for this research was provided by the National Science Foundation
Interdisciplinary Graduate Research and Training (IGERT) program under Grant No.
022168. Additional resources were provided by the City of Amarillo and gratitude is
expressed to all Office of Emergency Management staff for their support and mentorship.
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS................................................................................................ ii ABSTRACT........................................................................................................................ v BIOGRAPHY…………………………………………………………………………...viii LIST OF TABLES.............................................................................................................. x LIST OF FIGURES .......................................................................................................... xii CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION ..................................................................................................... 1
Objectives and Scope.............................................................................................. 5
2. LITERATURE REVIEW ......................................................................................... 7 3. TULIA, TX TORNADO......................................................................................... 15
Storm Synopsis ..................................................................................................... 15 Damage Summary................................................................................................. 25 Local Demographics and Economy...................................................................... 33 Direct and Indirect Impacts................................................................................... 39 Historical and Current Economic Overview......................................................... 49
4. CLOVIS, NM TORNADO ..................................................................................... 67
Storm Synopsis ..................................................................................................... 67 Damage Summary................................................................................................. 74 Local Demographics and Economy...................................................................... 82 Direct & Indirect Impacts ..................................................................................... 88 Historical and Current Economic Overview......................................................... 93
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5. DISCUSSION....................................................................................................... 100
Comparison of Results........................................................................................ 104
6. CONCLUSIONS AND FUTURE WORK ........................................................... 108 REFERENCES ............................................................................................................... 112 APPENDIX A: SWISHER COUNTY IMPLAN OUTPUT .......................................... 118 APPENDIX B: CURRY COUNTY IMPLAN OUTPUT .............................................. 121 APPENDIX C: SWISHER COUNTY CONSOLIDATED FEDERAL FUNDS REPORT ........................................................................................................... 124 APPENDIX D: CURRY COUNTY CONSOLIDATED FEDERAL FUNDS REPORT 2007 .................................................................................................. 131 APPENDIX E: DISASTER DECLARATION PROCESS - A SUMMARY OF DEM-62 DISASTER RECOVERY MANUAL ................................. 140
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ABSTRACT
The aftermath of hurricane landfalls like Katrina and Rita in 2005 and the
tornadoes of Moore, Oklahoma (1999) and Greensburg, Kansas (2007), remind us of not
only the power such systems can contain but of the great human loss, social and
emotional effects, economic loss, substantial infrastructural damage, and political and
environmental impacts such storms carry with them. Although the number of people
killed by all disasters has been generally decreasing due to better warning dissemination,
the number of people affected by disasters and costs incurred by them remains high and
continues to increase.
Tornado damage does produce a negative effect on some business operations;
however, direct damage is only one of several factors that contribute to business loss.
Damage and disruption of utilities, transportation, reduced traffic, and reduced employee
productivity can all additionally incur loss that may be as large as physical losses.
Research on the short-term and long-term economic effects after a tornadic event is
sparse, especially for small to mid-size communities. These communities often lack the
political and economic influence of larger cities when it comes to preparing and
recovering from an event. Although large metropolitans may have more population at
risk, large urban areas often have the resources, training, and funds to deal with hazards
and disasters.
This study fills a void in the literature by focusing on the impact placed on two
relatively small communities of Clovis, New Mexico and Tulia, Texas after tornadoes hit
on March 23, 2007 and April 21, 2007 respectively. Over 450 residential structures and
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33 businesses were damaged in Clovis. In Tulia, the business district took the brunt of
the storm, completely destroying 24 businesses in the town with a population of 5100.
This study sets a framework for future study and focuses on the collection, compilation
and documentation of engineering, atmospheric, and economic data with implications for
a rapid response economic impact analysis using primary data directly from impacted
businesses, higher reliability data than traditional regional studies. Such analysis
provides for more accurate economic estimates that would be available to federal and
state officials who decide whether to issue a Presidential Declaration and the amount of
funds to disperse to a community suffering from a disastrous event based on numbers
reported to the state. It is important that these smaller jurisdictions properly account for
all impacts since economic impacts may be larger than direct damage impacts and may be
the difference in obtaining declaration status. Additionally, local officials will be able to
determine where to exert these funds in a way that would be more economically feasible
and towards effective mitigation planning, paving the way towards a faster recovery and
leading towards greater local sustainability.
Results of the study indicated that infrastructure such as power or water services
did not play a role in business disruption as power was restored quickly in both cases.
The people in the community came together along with many others from surrounding
communities to help in the cleanup process. Debris was cleared within the week. Those
businesses that sustained major damage not only to the structure but inventory as well,
took longer to recover, between two to nine months. Additionally, permanent job loss
impacts estimated by the economic impact analysis show significant immediate impact to
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Swisher County, spiking unemployment by nearly 36% and a loss of 22 jobs. Swisher
County had an estimated $1,000,000 in output impact due to the decision of Alco not to
rebuild. Additionally, research showed that when businesses are hit by a tornado, some
experienced demand surge. This included auto repair shops and service firms such as
insurance agents. Others continued to operate or recovered quickly by changing
locations or operating out of their homes. However, establishments in sectors such as
manufacturing/dairy/retail sustained longer lasting periods of business interruption.
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BIOGRAPHY
Maribel Martinez was born in 1979 in Spearman, TX, a small town in the
northern Texas Panhandle. After graduating from Spearman High School in 1998, she
attended Texas Tech University and graduated in December 2001 with a B.S. in
Geosciences/Geophysics. As an undergraduate she was accepted into the Significant
Opportunities in Atmospheric Research and Science (SOARS) Program at the National
Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and was a protégé at the center for four
summers. She was involved in the Severe Thunderstorm Electrification and Precipitation
Study (STEPS 2000) based in Goodland, Kansas and numerous field projects throughout
her undergraduate career. In the summer of 2003, she worked at the National Severe
Storms Laboratory (NSSL) analyzing polarimetric radar and lightning data. Maribel
accepted a Teaching Assistantship at Texas Tech University while working on her
masters. Her master’s research included analysis of lightning behavior in severe storms.
She graduated with a M.S. in Atmospheric Science in December of 2003.
Upon completion of her Masters, Maribel worked as a research assistant where
she developed radar display code in Matlab for various hurricane analyses and profiler
and West Texas Mesonet data. In August 2004, she was offered an NSF Integrated
Graduate Education Research and Training (IGERT) Ph.D. Fellowship in Wind Science
and Engineering at Texas Tech University. Maribel was a NSF Diversity Scholarship
Recipient, a member of the Society for Chicanos and Native Americans in Science
(SACNAS), Texas Tech Student Chapter of the American Meteorological Society
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(AMS), National AMS, Hispanic Alumni Association, a regular participant in the Texas
Tech University Storm Intercept Team, and has been deployed for eight hurricanes as
part of Hurricane Research Team.
Maribel was accepted into the Hispanic National Internship Program in the spring
of 2006 under the U.S. Department of Agriculture Farm Service Agency in Dodgeville,
Wisconsin where she worked on various GIS related projects and she did volunteer work
with the Wisconsin Emergency Management Division. Additionally, she spent several
months working and visiting every small community in the West Texas area (and also has
quite a collection of water tower pictures for each community) as part of a hazard
planning and mitigation project with the South Plains Association of Governments.
After seeing firsthand the impacts of disasters through the various avenues of field
research, Maribel decided to enter the arena of emergency management and utilize her
experiences to enhance preparation, mitigation, and recovery strategies at the local level.
She was hired by the Amarillo/Potter/Randall Office of Emergency Management as the
Assistant Emergency Management Coordinator in March of 2008.
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LIST OF TABLES Tornado storm report information for April 21, 2007 . .................................................... 17 EF rated tornadoes on April 21, 2007 . ............................................................................. 18 Businesses receiving damage in Tulia, TX....................................................................... 31 2000 U.S. Census statistics for Tulia, TX ........................................................................ 33 Top employment by industry sectors for Tulia based on 2000 U.S. Census .................... 36 Employment by industry in 2000 ..................................................................................... 38 Businesses receiving damage in Tulia, TX....................................................................... 43 Population data for Swisher County . ............................................................................... 56 Unemployment, income, poverty, property values, and sales activity . ........................... 57 Industry employment for Swisher County . ...................................................................... 58 1992-2007 Property Tax rates for Swisher County . ........................................................ 58 Swisher County, TX Single-Family Building Permit . ..................................................... 59 Swisher County, TX 2-4 Family Building Permit . .......................................................... 60 Swisher County, TX 5+ Family Building Permit ............................................................ 61 Sales Tax, Taxable Sales Report, from 2002-2008 for the City of Tulia . ....................... 62 Sales Tax, Taxable Sales Report, from 2002-2008 for the Swisher County . .................. 64 Tornado storm report information for March 23, 2007 . .................................................. 69 Businesses receiving damage in Clovis, NM.................................................................... 81 2000 U.S. Census information for Clovis, NM. ............................................................... 83 Major employers for the Clovis area . .............................................................................. 85
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Major industry sectors for Clovis .................................................................................... 86 Curry County employment by industry . .......................................................................... 88 Businesses impacted in Clovis, NM. ................................................................................ 91 Curry County civilian labor force and unemployment rate . ............................................ 97 Curry County housing estimates ...................................................................................... 97 Curry County new residential permits . ............................................................................ 98 Summary of impacts for Swisher County, TX................................................................ 102 Summary of impacts for Curry County, NM. ................................................................. 103 Output multipliers - Swisher County…………………………………………………...117 Employment multipliers - Swisher County……………………………………………..118 Labor income multipliers - Swisher County……………………………………………119 Output multipliers - Curry County……………………………………………………...120 Employment multipliers - Curry County……………………………………………….121 Labor income multipliers - Curry County……………………………………………...122 Swisher County consolidated federal funds report 2007……………………………….123 Curry County consolidated federal funds report 2007………………………………….130 Types of resources……………………………………………………………………...144
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LIST OF FIGURES
Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Storm Reports for April 21, 2007................................... 19 0000 UTC 22 April 2007 surface map. ........................................................................... 20 Upper air analysis 250 mb observations and isotachs for 0000 UTC on 22 April 2007................................................................................................................................... 22 Upper air analysis 500 mb observations and isotachs for 0000 UTC on 22 April 2007................................................................................................................................... 22 Upper air analysis 700 mb observations and isotachs for 0000 UTC on 22 April 2007................................................................................................................................... 23 Upper air analysis 850 mb observations and isotachs for 0000 UTC on 22 April 2007................................................................................................................................... 23 Lubbock radar (KLBB) base reflectivity image at 0056 UTC. ........................................ 24 Tornado path through Tulia, TX ...................................................................................... 27 Tornado damage track with shaded areas of EF0, EF1, and EF2 damage in Tulia, TX. .................................................................................................................................... 28 Damage survey photos of the Tulia tornado track . .......................................................... 29 Tornado tracks on April 21, 2007 . ................................................................................... 30 Swisher County population estimates 2000-2008............................................................. 37 Unemployment rate trend from 2000 to 2008................................................................... 51 Swisher County state expenditures from 2000-2007 ....................................................... 66 Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Storm Reports for March 23, 2007. .............................. 68 Upper air analysis 250 mb observations and isotachs for 0000 UTC on 23 March 2007................................................................................................................................... 71 Upper air analysis 500 mb observations and isotachs for 0000 UTC on 23 March 2007................................................................................................................................... 71
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Upper air analysis 700 mb observations and isotachs for 0000 UTC on 23 March 2007................................................................................................................................... 72 Upper air analysis 850 mb observations and isotachs for 0000 UTC on 23 March 2007................................................................................................................................... 72 Surface observations and isotachs for 0000 UTC on 23 March 2007. ............................. 73 Cannon AFB base-level radar reflectivity imagery at 01:58 UTC as the tornadic circulation passes through Clovis. .................................................................................... 74 Clovis, New Mexico tornado track (red) on March 23, 2007........................................... 76 Geocoded damage information for structure, roof covering, and accumulated building.. ........................................................................................................................... 78 Damage photos in Clovis, NM . ........................................................................................ 79 Curry County population estimates 2000-2008 . .............................................................. 87 Curry County annual unemployment rate ........................................................................ 95 Presidential declaration process………………………………………………………...143 Small Business Administration declaration process……………………………………144 USDA disaster declaration process……………………………………………………..145
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CHAPTER I
INTRODUCTION
From the years 1973 to 2003, over 6,367 natural disasters have killed more than 2
million people and caused over $1.4 trillion in damage worldwide (Guha et al., 2004).
The aftermath of hurricane landfalls like Katrina and Rita in 2005 and the tornadoes of
Moore, Oklahoma (1999) and Greensburg, Kansas (2007), remind us of not only the
power such systems can contain but of the great human loss, social and emotional effects,
economic loss, substantial infrastructural damage, and political and environmental
impacts such storms carry with them (NOAA, 2006).
Tornadoes occur most frequently in the United States, averaging about 1,200
reports each year (Grazulis, 1993). The unique geography of the U.S. allows warm,
moist air from the Gulf of Mexico and colder air from the Rockies to converge, resulting
in disturbances that are associated with cyclogenesis and severe weather. Damage paths
can be in excess of one mile wide and 50 miles in length. Every state is at some risk
from this hazard but they occur most frequently east of the Rockies during spring and
summer. On average they account for 70 deaths and more than 1,500 injuries
(Tornadoes, 2007).
Although the number of people killed by all disasters has been generally
decreasing due to better warning dissemination (Simmons and Sutter, 2005), the number
of people affected by disasters and costs incurred by them remains high and continues to
increase (Freeman et al., 2003). Interactions and changes between hazardous events,
social and demographic characteristics of communities, and the constructed environment
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all play a role in disaster losses (Mileti, 1999; Kates, 1971). More people are exposed to
more disasters because they choose to live near hazardous places and often choose
inadequate construction designs that fail to limit destruction when that hazard occurs. It
is up to researchers, decision makers, emergency management officials, policy makers,
and U. S. citizens to prepare and plan for possible disastrous events by being committed
to building resiliency and enhancing local sustainability through mitigation,
preparedness, and response and recovery.
Direct property damage is almost always reported in the aftermath of a natural
disaster due to pressures to determine replacement investment requirements and the
extent of insured losses. In recent years some indirect business interruption losses have
been estimated and reported as well. However, indirect effects have not been studied or
modeled to the same extent as direct losses and determining these impacts have proved
challenging since they are generally spread over a much wider area as they ripple
throughout the local economy.
The purpose of this research is to economically quantify these impacts placed on
smaller communities specifically by tornadic wind damage. Although studies exist on
various aspects of impacts from these storms, many analyses concentrate only on large
urban areas and the need for more research, especially for smaller communities still
exists. Of course, one major reason that prior studies have focused on larger metro areas
and not on smaller, rural communities is due to data availability. Thus, this research is
the first attempt in the literature at a comprehensive approach to disaster impact analysis
for the smaller community in which relevant economic data do not exist or are sparse at
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best. Research here aims to investigate the impact using a case study approach to the
Tulia, TX and Clovis, NM communities that combines and utilizes engineering,
atmospheric, and economics data, including a establishment-level business survey.
Collection, compilation and documentation of engineering, atmospheric, and economic
data could have implications for a rapid response economic impact analysis.
When it comes to tornadoes, Tornado Alley (an area of greatest risk for tornado
formation) is comprised mainly of these smaller communities like those of Clovis and
Tulia. When disaster does strike, it is heavily felt by the entire population, unlike those in
larger urban areas (Cross, 2001). Rural areas, which contain approximately a quarter of
the country’s population, have a lower tax base and fewer resources in general (Mileti,
1999). Federal resources to alleviate hardships only become fully available to local and
state governments when a presidential declaration is made and mainly come in the form
of low interest loans (Bazan, 2005). Only if the demand for assistance and services
exceeds local and state capacities or if local government revenues are substantially
threatened, do federal resources become engaged. For example, if a tornado destroyed
only houses located along a city block, the revenue of local government would not be
severely impacted and would thus not qualify for federal assistance (Clower, 2006).
Therefore, it is important for assessments to include the total (direct and indirect)
economic impact placed on a community in order to better understand the extent of the
impact and attain disaster declaration status. It is in the understanding of the overall
impacts that these jurisdictions can properly account for damages which are often missed
in traditional methods in order to increase the probability of a presidential declaration and
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open the availability of federal assistance. Since the amount of assistance an area may
receive is a positive function of the reported amount of damage, accounting for total
impacts is vital to smaller communities who unlike larger communities may find it
difficult to meet the threshold of damage for declaration status without including
additional economic impacts. Additionally, by understanding losses or gains for different
industries in the impact area, local officials can exert these funds in a way that would be
more economically feasible and advantageous for the community, paving the way
towards a faster recovery and possibly build up a better local economy.
Through the use of economic impact analysis, losses such as those from backward-
linked production due to closed or damaged businesses or spending reductions from
suffering businesses will be investigated. Economic gains such as positive job growth,
production generated from rebuilding, and multiplier effects of these gains will also be
determined. Overall, a clearer picture of which industry sectors thrive and which suffer
the most will be obtained. Whether it be through the reinforcement of structures, more
effective land-use planning, identification of vulnerable industries through economic
impact analysis, or better allocating federal funds for minimal economic activity
interruption, a better understanding of the total loss of disasters will assist policymakers
in designing and implementing cost effective mitigation polices that in the end will
reduce losses in future disasters. Additionally, a methodology for smaller communities
who are impacted by these devastating storms in the future will be determined in order to
quickly assess economic impacts on the community and qualify them for federal aid.
Current studies often use official labor market and economic statistics like those from the
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Bureau of Economic Analysis, Census Bureau, and the Bureau of Labor Statistics which
have a relatively larger measurement error associated with them for smaller populated
counties than those with more population. Obtaining primary data directly from the
businesses and or local officials improves reliability and thus adds to the value of this
research.
Objectives and Scope The research presented here includes the following observations for both case studies of
Tulia, TX and Clovis, NM:
1. The spatial distribution of the tornado path using the Enhanced Fujita damage
scale.
2. The number and extent of residential and business areas affected, people
impacted, and extent of infrastructure damage and disruption.
3. The impact on regional industrial sectors.
The collective and multidisciplinary approach to disaster research for small, rural
communities is unique and will provide a framework for future research, as well. Data to
fulfill objective #1 was obtained through field damage assessment and working with the
National Weather Service. Data to fulfill objective #2 was obtained through local and
state government research, and an establishment-level survey was conducted with
impacted businesses in both cases to determine the impacts to complete objective #3. For
each case, the local economy, storm synopsis, direct and indirect impacts of the storm
using collected data, and grant money received and possible allocations, are discussed
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and examined. .Finally, a summary chapter synthesizes the findings of the two cases,
including discussion of results and comparison to previous work, and discusses
possibilities of future work.
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CHAPTER II
LITERATURE REVIEW
Disasters can cause direct loss through physical destruction to buildings, homes
and infrastructure and indirect effects through interruptions of economic activities and
businesses. Rose (2004) along with other researchers cited in his study, found that direct
and indirect business interruption losses can be as large as physical losses. A study on
the Midwest flood and Northridge Earthquake by Tierney (1997) showed that most
businesses cited disruptions to water, electric power, and sewer and wastewater services
as most likely effects of business disruptions. Employment income, ability to ship and
receive goods, reduced employee productivity, and loss of income are also associated in
loss in secondary and tertiary employment. Even if a certain area is spared, damage to
nearby business and residential areas can result in reduced traffic, thus affecting
businesses that escaped direct damage. A report by Alesch et al. (2001) on small
business impact after various natural disasters, found that only 60% of the business were
back to normal four years following the disaster. Structural, merchandise, and equipment
damage were the cause of some failures while the impact on business and customer base
left others to close two or three years later. On the other hand, some industries and
business may even see potentially huge increases in their business activities resulting
from a disaster and the economic region may be better off after the disaster (Mileti, 1999;
Gordan et al., 2005; Okuyama, 2000; Ewing and Kruse, 2002; Skidmore and Toya,
2002). Although the impacts of disasters are very complex, advances in economic
analysis of natural disasters have increased our understanding of what goes on after these
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events. Techniques such as surveys, econometric models, time series analyses, input-
output models, general equilibrium models, and economic accounting models have all
been used to assess the indirect and direct income effects of disasters (Cochrane, 2004;
Chang, 2003; Zimmerman et al., 2005). Ewing, Kruse, and Sutter (2007, 2009 in press)
provide a literature survey and overview of the economic impacts of Hurricane Katrina.
Input-output models are popular tools among the disaster-related research
community as they can estimate secondary or indirect effects at a regional level
(Cochrage, 1997; Wilson, 1982; Boisvert, 1992; Guimaraes et al., 1993; West and Lenze,
1994; Gordon and Richardson, 1996; Rose et al., 1997; Rose and Benavides, 1998; and
Okuyama et al., 1999). The input-output model IMPLAN is a software and database
package widely used to estimate local economic impacts. The data for IMPLAN consists
of 528 distinct producing industry sectors collected by the U.S. Department of
Commerce, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, and other federal and state government
agencies. Data includes outputs and inputs from other sectors, value added, employment,
wages and business taxes paid, imports and exports, final demand by households and
government, capital investment, business inventories, marketing margins, and inflation
factors nationwide and at the county level. Estimation of multiplier effects between
industries are determined from the direct, indirect, and induced effects. Input-output
models are able to reflect the interdependencies within a regional economy and can also
be integrated with engineering models or other data to estimate indirect effects that may
be more sensitive to changes in physical destruction (Rose, 2004). Some disadvantages
such as its static nature, lack of linearity, lack of behavioral content, lack of
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interdependence between price and output do exist but many of the inaccuracies
associated with it are due to the inability to use it correctly rather than shortcomings of
the model itself (Mulkey and Hodges, 2007).
HAZUS, which incorporates an imbedded input-output model similar to
IMPLAN, is frequently used for assessing impact for flood, hurricane, and earthquake
hazards for planning purposes. Currently, HAZUS does not incorporate a tornado model.
Relationships between tornado damage scale and loss have been made by the North
Texas Council of Governments (NCTCOG) (Rae and Stefkovich, 2000) and Wurman et
al. (2007). Rae and Stefkovich used the May 3, 1999 Oklahoma outbreak tornado tracks
over the Dallas-Fort Worth area. Appraisal records, land use classifications,
demographic data, employment center, building locations, aerial photographs were used
to determine detailed densities, structure values, wind velocity contours, and parcels.
Instead of using a previous tornado path, which could likely underestimate the full
damage potential, Wurman et al. (2007) simulated tornado winds using high resolution
wind fields derived from mobile radars. Based on these estimates, tornado tracks and
wind swaths of simulated tornadoes were applied to different urban areas. The number of
residents impacted, deaths, number of housing units impacted and degree of damage were
obtained from varying intensities. Both studies only included estimates of damage to
structures and did not incorporate an estimate of contents of the buildings, utility,
infrastructure, or business interruption.
Other frameworks becoming widely used within disaster impact analysis are
computable general equilibrium (CGE) and time series analysis (Brookshire and McKee,
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1992; Okuyama, 2003; Rose 2004). Most CGE models are intended for longer-term
economic effects (Rose and Liao, 2005). Rose (2004) summarized a methodology for
incorporating disequilibria and recalibrating CGE model parameters using an application
to a disruption of water services in Portland. He stated that the methodology could be
adapted to other applications of CGE models for response to other types of disasters as
well as used as a tool for emergency planners in benchmarking mitigation policies and
measures. Rose and Guha (2004) also used a CGE model to determine the economic
impact of electricity outages resulting from an earthquake. Ewing, Kruse, and Thompson
(2005) looked at the impact and recovery on the employment rate of Corpus Christi from
the disruption of Hurricane Bret (1999) using a time series analysis.
Much of the previous work to assess the economic impact of a disaster that has
been done has focused on the total economic loss incurred by a region. Such case studies
include: Hurricane Hugo (Guimaraes et al., 1993), Hurricane Andrew (West and Lenze,
1994), the Northridge (Rose et al., 1997), and Kobe (Chang, 1996) earthquakes.
Regionally, and in some cases nationally, disasters do have an immediate impact on the
economy. Output, income, market values, housing price index, employment growth, and
bank performance for various events have been used in previous literature in order to
determine the extent of impact on the region and to investigate the intermediate and long
term effects on the economy. Labor markets are a method to evaluate economic
performance because they are measured in terms of employment. The amount of output
that is produced will rise with increases in employment (Romer, 1996). Increases in
employment growth should provide economic benefits to the local economy. Less
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variance, or volatility, in the employment growth rate suggests a more stable economic
environment and is preferred over a more volatile labor market.
Evidence on the economic impact of severe wind activity is mixed. In many
cases reconstruction, funded by disaster relief programs, compensated for output, wealth,
jobs, and state tax revenues. Such was the case during Hurricane Hugo for South
Carolina (Gillespie, 1991), in the coastal counties of Alabama after Hurricane Frederick
(Chang, 1983), and a positive short-term impact on Florida was seen after Hurricane
Andrew (West and Lenze, 1994). Ewing and Kruse (2001) examined unemployment
after Hurricane Bertha and found a longer term improvement in the economy in
Wilmington, NC. Likewise, Ewing, Hein, and Kruse (2006) did not see any adverse
impacts on profit by commercial banks from wind events and in some cases saw positive
effects. Burrus et al. (2002) focused on low intensity hurricanes that impacted the
Wilmington, N.C. region. They questioned whether the impacts would differ from those
seen in high intensity hurricane events. Results indicated that during low intensity
hurricanes, regional impacts focus more on business interruption than on structural
damage and these are not offset by external funds. The average business interruption
time across the various industries was 7.01 days, with tourism suffering the longest.
Manufacturing, health care, and commercial construction industry sectors returned to
normal operations quicker. Indirect business sectors such as real estate, auto sales,
grocery, and miscellaneous retail were impacted the most.
Regional differences will exist due to the characteristics of the region and local
labor markets. Each hazard (i.e. flood, earthquake, hurricane, tornado) may also impact
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the economy in different ways. In the arena of tornado research, various studies exist on
the impact placed by tornadoes that hit Nashville, TN (April 16, 1998), Oklahoma City,
OK (May 3, 1999), and Fort Worth, TX (March 28, 2000). Studies by Ewing et al.
(2005a) investigated the regional labor market effect induced by each of the three
tornadoes. The business districts of Nashville and Fort Worth were hit, inflicting severe
damage to historical buildings, high rise office complexes, and some residential homes.
Many residential homes and some commercial building were destroyed in the Oklahoma
City tornado. Findings showed that employment growth rates for Nashville and
Oklahoma City remained unchanged while Fort Worth did experience a reduction in
employment growth. Impact on the industrial sectors of construction, finance, insurance
and real estate, government, manufacturing, mining, services, transportation and public
utilities, and wholesale, retail and trade were examined for the Oklahoma City tornado.
A short-lived drop in employment growth followed in the aftermath of the tornado. A
positive long run impact in the construction sector appeared. In the service,
transportation and public utilities sectors the mean employment growth did not change
but the service sector did become more stable. Employment growth was seen in the real
estate, wholesale, retail and trade sectors. Only the government sector had an adverse
effect on employment growth. Overall, the total labor market and half of the industry
sectors that were significantly affected by a tornado, experienced employment growth
and most had a more stable market in the aftermath of the tornado (Ewing et al., 2005b,
Ewing et al., 2004).
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De Silva et al. (2005, 2006) examined the relationship between the Fujita damage
scale (F-scale) of the tornado to the reduction in property market value from the May 3,
1999 Oklahoma tornado. De Silva et al. looked at the value of the property before and
after the tornado, year built, parcel ID, area in square feet, roof type, number of floors,
location, zip code, and the percentage of damage. Ordinary least squares and spatial
economic models were used to analyze damage on 89 residential dwellings. For total
dollar loss per parcel and loss ratio, the loss in market value increased significantly in F-
1, F-3, and F-4 wind damage. Dollar losses for the lower F-0 rating ranged from $7000
to $83000. The model loss ratio for all F-scales was between 80-90%. They found that
the number of square feet is a predictor of total loss as observations indicated almost a
$23 per square foot loss in market value. Additionally, tracking over time of the
reconstruction of damaged homes showed that the tax base relative to undamaged
properties was restored about three years later.
So how do the impacts on rural communities differ from these urban areas? Do
these smaller communities undergo an economic boom after a disaster or do they slowly
recover to pre-tornado conditions? Which industries suffer the most/least? Will such
economic impact analysis better qualify these smaller communities for federal aid? Or
can mitigation measures be taken before disaster strikes based on these analysis? All
these are viable questions yet research on the impact of tornadoes on rural communities is
sparse. Each year rural communities like those of Jarrell, TX (1997), Siren, WI (2001),
Mulhall, OK (1999), Stroud, OK (1999), or Greensburg, KS (2007) are faced with
picking up the pieces after a tornado strikes. For some communities it’s a chance to
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rebuild better facilities and infrastructure or enhance organization and mitigation
strategies. The town of Siren has rebuilt their buildings with architecture reflecting its
history. They have also geared more industry towards tourism, becoming a popular
destination for fishing, hunting, and getaways. Other communities may struggle. The
community of Stroud, OK suffered substantial loss when a tornado hit on May 3, 1999.
Fifty percent of its tax revenue was destroyed when the 44-store Tanger Outlet Mall was
hit. Three hundred jobs were lost at the mall as well as ten workers from the city.
Another major employer, the Sygma Food Distribution Center, was also lost and the roof
off the only hospital was blown off, forcing it to close. A medical center opened up two
years later, employing only 42 people. Due to the destruction of three of its major
employers, managers and public officials used IMPLAN to determine industries that
would be potential recruitment targets. Industries that would create jobs, attract new
business, and retain and expand current businesses were determined by identifying local
strengths and weaknesses (Homm et al., 2003).
The need exists for investigating issues related to hazard loss estimation. A
variety of work to assess economic impacts from hurricanes, earthquakes and floods do
exist. A few cases (Ewing et al., 2005ab, De Silva et al., 2005; 2006; Wurman et al.,
2007; Rae and Stefkovish, 2000) have looked at the amount of damage, deaths and
associated economic loss from varying intensity of tornados in major cities, yet further
research is needed to determine short-term and long-term economic impact in smaller
communities since it is these type of communities that are more often hit and more than
often already struggling to survive.
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CHAPTER III
TULIA, TX TORNADO
Storm Synopsis Thunderstorms developed in the western South Plains in the early evening hours
of April 21, 2007. A large upper level low pressure system near the 4-corners region was
responsible for the outbreak, with the large majority of the tornadoes touching down in
the South Plains and Panhandle of West Texas. A total of twenty tornadoes were
reported in two distinct family clusters. The most widespread damage occurred in Moore
and Swisher counties, but tornado induced damage was reported in a total of seven Texas
counties in about a two hour time period. The time and location of each as reported to the
weather service is shown in Table 1 (SPC Tulia, 2007). The majority of the activity, with
the exception of Cactus and Tulia, was confined to open country side, damaging farm and
irrigation equipment, power poles, fences, and barns. Damage investigation by officials
looked at different indicators (which include such things as automobiles, structures,
residential areas, towers, trees, etc) to define degrees of damage (DOD) to each indicator.
For each varying DOD, an expected wind speed value was assigned which then
corresponded to an Enhanced Fujita (EF) damage rating. The EF scale was implemented
in place of the Fujita Scale operationally on February 1, 2007. Five of the nineteen
tornadoes on April 21, 2007 were rated as EF2 with maximum wind speeds between 50
m/s to 60 m/s, eight were rated as EF1 with maximum wind speeds between 38 m/s to 49
m/s, and six were rated as EF0 with maximum wind speeds between 29 and 38 m/s
(Table 2). As shown in Figure 1, one cluster of tornadoes (depicted in red) occurred in
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the northeastern portion of the Panhandle while the second was mainly concentrated in
the southern portion of the Panhandle. Accompanying tornadic activity, large hail and
strong and damaging winds impacted the region (green and blue dots on the map
respectively).
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Table 1: Tornado storm report information for April 21, 2007 (SPC Tulia, 2007).
Time Location County State Comments 2329 8 SE CAMPO BACA CO (PUB)
2345 5 WNW BOYS RANCH OLDHAM TX (AMA)
2353 3 SE CHANNING HARTLEY TX (AMA)
0000 1 SE OLTON LAMB TX
Tornado with damage in vicinity of Olton on Highway 70...barn destroyed...other buildings damaged (LUB)
0000 5 NE CHANNING HARTLEY TX (AMA)
0008 5 W HALFWAY HALE TX Large tornado remains on the ground northwest of halfway (LUB)
0015 15 NE CHANNING MOORE TX
4 miles north of 722 Hartley/Moore county line. (AMA)
0016 7 NW EDMONSON SWISHER TX
Damage to farm and irrigation equipment northwest of Edmonson (LUB)
0020 12 NE CHANNING POTTER TX
4 north 722 Hartley/Moore county line (AMA)
0042 CACTUS MOORE TX
Tornado moved through residential part of town. Power lines and poles were downed...trailer homes...semis and cars were overturned (AMA)
0048 5 ESE FOUR WAY MOORE TX
Corroborated with damage reported by NWS employee (AMA)
0048 4 SE PLANKINTON AURORA SD (FSD)
0055 TULIA SWISHER TX Tornado reported vicinity of Tulia (LUB)
0055 5 ESE PLANKINTON AURORA SD 4-5 brief touchdowns (FSD)
0107 6 SE DUMAS MOORE TX
Rope tornado - near farm to market road 1284 - spotter 6 miles east of Dumas looking south southwest (AMA)
0122 14 E HAPPY SWISHER TX Reported by WDTB meteorologist...5 miles southwest of Wayside (LUB)
0125 10 NE DUMAS MOORE TX Power flashes reported (AMA) 0139 5 NE SUNRAY SHERMAN TX (AMA) 0154 5 SW SUNRAY MOORE TX (AMA)
0156 5 NE CARTHAGE KINGSBURY SD Debris circulating at the ground. (FSD)
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Table 2: EF rated tornadoes on April 21, 2007 (SPC Tulia, 2007).
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Figure 1: Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Storm Reports for April 21, 2007. Red dots are tornado reports, green dots represent large hail reports, and blue depict high wind reports (SPC Tulia, 2007).
The day held all three necessary ingredients for the development of thunderstorms
and the potential of the development of strong tornadoes. The Storm Prediction Center
(SPC) issued a moderate risk for the day, a usual indication of an enhanced chance for a
significant severe storm outbreak including multiple tornadic supercells with very large
hail and widespread damaging winds. A surface map (Figure 1) from 0000 UTC 22 April
2007 showed moist air from the Gulf of Mexico being advected northward by southerly
winds. Dewpoints throughout the area were in the mid to upper 50s ahead of the dryline
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and in the 20s behind the front. The dryline was stationed near the New Mexico border,
extending southward from the low pressure center which was located west of Amarillo
right at the New Mexico border.
Figure 2: 0000 UTC 22 April 2007 surface map. Depicted are the dryline (brown), cold front (blue), and warm front (red). Dewpoint temperatures greater than 50 degrees F are shaded in green every 5 degrees F.
Coupled with the moisture availability, the environment was characterized by
moderate instability with a favorable wind shear structure. Storms developed as a high
amplitude shortwave trough, shown through upper air analysis at 0000 UTC on April 22,
2007 at height levels of 250 mb, 500 mb, 700 mb, and 850 mb (Figure 3 - Figure 6),
entered the region. A 75 knot (86 mph) core of jet stream winds aloft provided ample
wind energy and wind shear. The environment had a large 0-6 km layer shear of about
25 m/s with 1500 to 2000 J/kg mixed convective available potential energy (MLCAPE)
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based on a 100 hPa mixed layer. MLCAPE values between 1000-2500 J/kg characterize
moderately unstable environments.
As a result of the upper level trough, several surface boundaries across West
Texas served as an initiation points for deep moist convection. As discussed earlier and
depicted by the surface conditions in Figure 2, moist Gulf air drawn up by southerly
winds formed a dryline near the New Mexico border. A warm front extended from the
low pressure center eastward while a cold front ran along a north and south line from the
low pressure center. Convergence along the fronts and dryline, the lifting mechanism
and the third final ingredient, helped initiate the storms. They created what is known as a
triple point, an intersection between boundaries, that is often the focus point of
thunderstorms development. Once initiated, these storms had an environment favorable
for tornadogenesis. Tornadic activity concentrated along the warm front and along the
dryline.
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Figure 3: Upper air analysis 250 mb observations and isotachs for 0000 UTC on 22 April 2007.
Figure 4: Upper air analysis 500 mb observations and isotachs for 0000 UTC on 22 April 2007.
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Figure 5: Upper air analysis 700 mb observations and isotachs for 0000 UTC on 22 April 2007.
Figure 6: Upper air analysis 850 mb observations and isotachs for 0000 UTC on 22 April 2007.
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Convection initiated at approximately 2200 UTC in the far western Texas
Panhandle. The particular supercell that impacted Tulia, spawned a tornado early on near
Fieldton and south and east of Olton at approximately 0000 UTC, damaging several
structures and equipment along its path. The tornado persisted for nearly 40 minutes as
the cell moved northeastward. As the tornado dissipated, a new mesocyclone developed.
The storm then reached the community of Tulia, TX at 0056 UTC. Base Reflectivity
radar imagery from the Lubbock Doppler Radar in
Figure 7 shows the supercell entering Tulia as the tornado is reported on the
ground. The tornado, later given an EF2 damage rating, hit at 0101 UTC, and traveled a
total of 3.5 miles through the community and covered a maximum width of 200 yards.
No fatalities were directly associated with the event but three injuries were later reported.
Figure 7: Lubbock radar (KLBB) base reflectivity image at 0056 UTC.
TTuulliiaa
KLBB 4/22/2007 00:56:12 GMT 0.44 elev.
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Damage Summary
The tornado touched down near the power plant at the intersection of Broadway
and U.S. Highway 87. It was along U.S. 87 where the most significant damage occurred,
hitting the Tulia business district head on. Figure 8 shows the path of the tornado as it
made its way through the community with the areas of most severe damage circled. This
included a large metal building, ALCO store, mobile homes, and residential area. The
damage path is shown in
Figure 9 with shaded levels of EF rated damage (EF0 in yellow, EF1 in pale
orange, and EF2 in darker orange). The darker orange depicts the area of most intense
wind speeds and thus greater damage. As the tornado progressed northward from the
intersection of Broadway and U.S. 87, four large overhead doors failed and resulted in
major damage to a large metal building. The damage was consistent with wind speeds of
110 to 120 mph (EF2). Further along on U.S. 87, a large portion of a local retail store
was removed and an exterior wall collapsed inward. Winds at the store were estimated to
be near 125 to 135 mph (EF2). Additional damage occurred to a Ford dealership where
close to 41 vehicles received damage. The Highland Elementary School sustained minor
damage to the roof and air conditioning units. Just west of the school, five mobile homes
in a mobile home community were destroyed (an estimated 85-95 mph winds or EF1
category), two of which the walls and roofs separated, leaving them of no use to the
occupants (approximately 105 to 125 mph or EF2 category winds). Pictures of the
damage in the area taken by National Weather Service officials are shown in Figure 10.
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The tornado continued its track north across western Tulia and induced significant
damage to a subdivision along NW 9th and 11th Streets. Garage doors on several homes
along NW 9th street failed, resulting in moderate roof damage and scattering debris to a
southern field. Winds were estimated to near 100 to 110 mph (EF1) in this area. Along
NW 11th, roofs were torn off and exterior walls failed on those homes closer to the airport
road. Wind speeds were estimated to be near 125 to 135 mph (EF2). Further north, farm
houses on CR13 sustained weak to moderate damage indicative of 95-105 mph (EF1)
winds. Center pivots and storage structures were also damaged before the tornado lifted
just northeast of the Tulia/Swisher County Municipal Airport. A complete path of the
Tulia supercell is shown in Figure 11 as it made its way through four counties and
eventually to Tulia and Swisher County.
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Figure 8: Tornado path through Tulia, TX (Source LBB NWS, 2007).
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EF-2 damage to residences
EF-2 damage to Alco, large
metal building
EF0-EF2 damage to
mobile homes
Figure 9: Tornado damage track with shaded areas of EF0, EF1, and EF2 damage in Tulia, TX.
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Photos above show the damage to the ALCO store. Damage was in the EF2 scale range. (Photos by Steve Cobb and WCM Brian LaMarre)
Photos above show the damage to the Ford dealership and a large metal building. Forty-one vehicles were damaged. (Photos by Steve Cobb and WCM Brian LaMarre)
Aerial photo taken on 22 April 2007 on the north side of Tulia along NW 9th Street where homes sustained moderate damage (100-110 mph winds). (Photo taken by Darrin Davis and Zane Price) Figure 10: Damage survey photos of the Tulia tornado track (Source LBB NWS, 2007).
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Figure 11: Tornado tracks on April 21, 2007 (Source LBB NWS, 2007).
Damage assessment reports issued to the Texas Division of Emergency
Management for disaster declaration purposes, cited 150 damaged residential homes, 4
condemned houses, and 15 totaled structures. The business district, which took a direct
hit, reported 29 businesses heavily damaged or destroyed with 24 of those being a total
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loss. Table 3 lists the businesses that sustained damage due to the tornado as provided by
the City of Tulia. Several businesses and homes were uninsured and have since decided
not to rebuild. The Alco, the town’s main retail store, was declared a total loss and
demolished on May 17, 2007. The company decided not to rebuild. The Ford Company
was expected to rebuild but has yet to fully recover. City wide, over 500 people were
displaced with 50 people out of work temporarily or permanently. After the initial hit,
500-700 were without power. Two days later, 120 remained without power and by the
third day, power was completely restored.
Table 3: Businesses receiving damage in Tulia, TX.
Business Name Eugene Hurt dba Eugene's Used Cars Walco International (2 locations) Young & Ellis (2 locations) (Swisher tire) David Malone Bar W Ford Ken Love Car Wash Allsup's #29 Richard Bernal dba Ernie's Bar B Que Mid Plains Rural Telephone Cosby Motor Co dba Double R The Sandra Corp dba Alco Discount Ed Rogers Insurance Ken Love Real Estate Richard McDowell dba McDowell Plumbing, Heating & A/C WTG Inc Texas Bollweevil Eradication Phillips 66 City of Tulia Power Plant Swisher County barns Leija's used tires Hong Kong Restaurant
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A state disaster proclamation by Governor Rick Perry was issued for the Tulia
area on April 25, 2007 and was approved on May 1, 2007 by the federal government.
The declaration covered damage incurred on April 21 in Moore County and Swisher
County as well as the April 24 Eagle Pass tornado. The declaration invoked the Federal
Stafford Act, making funds available from the Individual Assistance program.
Homeowners and property owners not covered by insurance were eligible to receive
financial assistance, temporary housing, repair funds, tax relief, legal services, crisis
counseling, and disaster unemployment assistance (FEMA, 2009). Additional funds were
also made available for costs incurred by those not met by insurance or low interest loans.
This included:
Disaster Housing Assistance: Funds for repairs, temporary housing, rental assistance or reimbursement for hotel/motel lodging costs for residents who lost their homes.
The Individual and Households Program: Necessary expenses and serious needs not met by insurance, loans or other forms of assistance, which may include medical, dental and funeral expenses.
The Small Business Administration: Provided low-interest loans to homeowners, renters and businesses affected by the disaster. Loans up to $1.5 million for small businesses that have suffered disaster-related cash flow problems and need funds for working capital to recover from the disaster's adverse economic impact. This loan in combination with a property loss loan cannot exceed a total of $1.5 million. Low-interest loans to cover residential losses not fully compensated by insurance. Loans available up to $200,000 for primary residence; $40,000 for personal property, including renter losses.
Crisis counseling was made available to anyone in the designated disaster area. Disaster Unemployment Assistance administered by the Texas Workforce
Commission provided benefits for up to 26 weeks after a disaster declaration to persons who lost their jobs directly due to the disaster.
Farm Service Agency: Loans up to $500,000 for farmers, ranchers and aquaculture operators to cover production and property losses, excluding primary residence.
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Local Demographics and Economy
Tulia, Texas, the seat of Swisher County, is located in the southern portion of the
Texas Panhandle along I-27 and covers a total area of 3.5 square miles. According to the
2000 U.S. Census (Census, 2008), the city had a population of 5,117 people with 1,698
households and 1,222 families residing in the town. The corresponding number of
employed civilians (over 16 years of age) was reported as 1,870 or about 48.7% of the
population. Four percent (137 people) were listed as unemployed. About 16.0% of
families and 19.3% of the population were below the poverty line, including 26.7% under
the of age 18 and 14% of those of age 65 or older. Estimated population growth between
the years 2000-2005 show a decline of 7.89%.
Table 4: 2000 U.S. Census Statistics for Tulia, TX (Census, 2008). Population 5,117
Number of Households 1,698
Number of Families 1,222
Employed (over 16) 1,870 (48.7%)
Unemployed 137 (4%)
In Poverty 988 (19.3%)
The Tulia Independent School District is comprised of two elementary schools,
one junior high, and one high school. Total student enrollment for students K-12 in 2006
was 1,053 students and the student to teacher ratio was 12 to 1. In regards to educational
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attainment, 18% of the population has received a high school diploma or equivalent;
while more than 21% have some college or have obtained a higher degree.
The majority of the people in Tulia are employed in the educational, health, and
social services industry sector according to the 2000 census data.
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Table 5 shows top employment broken down by industry sectors for Tulia (PRPC, 2009).
The educational, health, and social service sector accounts for 21% of all employment,
employing 390 people. In Tulia, this sector would mainly be comprised of the Tulia
Independent School District, Swisher Memorial Hospital, and clinics. The second top
employer is the agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting, and mining sector with 211
employees, followed closely by the retail trade industry. Arts, entertainment, recreation,
accommodation and food services; manufacturing; other services; public administration,
transportation, warehousing, and utilities; and wholesale trade are all fairly equal,
employing between 148 and 114 employees. The information sector, comprised of
establishments such as telecommunications, computer services, and publications, makes
up the smallest percent at 1.3%.
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Table 5: Top employment by industry sectors for Tulia based on 2000 U.S. Census (PRPC, 2009)
INDUSTRY NUMBER PERCENT Educational, health and social services 390 20.9Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting, and mining 211 11.3Retail trade 204 10.9Arts, entertainment, recreation, accommodation and food services 148 7.9Manufacturing 145 7.8Other services (except public administration) 138 7.4Public administration 139 7.4Transportation and warehousing, and utilities 137 7.3Wholesale trade 114 6.1Construction 97 5.2Finance, insurance, real estate, and rental and leasing 76 4.1Professional, scientific, management, administrative, and waste management services 47 2.5Information 24 1.3
As a county, according to U.S. Census 2000 data, Swisher had a population of
8,378 people. The number of employed civilians was 3,332 or about 53% of the
population with a median household income of $27,794 and a median family income of
$32,415 (Census, 2008). Top employment industry for Swisher County was the Services
Sector, employing 1,175 people. Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting and Mining
employed the second highest number of people of 648. Other industries such as Retail
Trade, Transportation, Warehousing, and Utilities, Manufacturing, and Public
Administration employed from 312 to 227 people (Table 6). Overall Swisher has seen a
decline in population due to agricultural consolidation and the development of more
efficient equipment as well as the lack of through traffic. The U.S. Department of
Agriculture’s Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) has set aside an increasing amount
of acreage, thus decreasing money spent locally on seeds, implements, and implement
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supplies, including tires and oil. The remaining land still hosts agriculture and ranching,
producing wheat, cotton and sorghum crops and cattle ranching. U.S. 87 runs along
western Tulia and the stores, service stations, and motels along the highway are now
struggling or closing as I-27 diverts traffic away from Tulia. Major retail centers near
Tulia include those in Amarillo and Lubbock which are respectively 50 miles and 74
miles away. A look at the trend of population using data estimates generated by the
Census Bureau, show the steadily decline from 2000 to 2007 (Figure 12). Total county
population in 2007 for Swisher County was 7700, down 0.6% from 2006. Of interesting
note and what will be discussed further, is the 3.8% increase from the years 2007 to 2008.
8360
8234
80267966
78687756 7747
7700
7995
7300 7400 7500 7600 7700 7800 7900 8000 8100 8200 8300 8400
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Year
Swisher County Population Estimates 2000-2008 (U.S. Census Bureau)
Figure 12: Swisher County population estimates 2000-2008 (data from Census, 2009).
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Table 6: Employment by industry in 2000 (Census, 2008). EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY IN 2000
Agriculture, Forestry,
Fishing and Hunting, and
Mining
Construction ManufacturingWholesale
Trade Retail Trade
Transportation, Warehousing, and Utilities
Information
Finance, Insurance
, Real Estate,
and Leasing
Services Public
Administration
Texas 247,697 743,606 1,093,752 362,928 1,108,004 535,568 283,256 630,133 3,812,328 417,100 Panhandle Region 14,189 12,577 19,419 7,081 21,858 10,439 3,568 9,383 69,495 9,426
Swisher County 648 150 279 152 312 235 31 123 1,175 227
Tulia 211 97 145 114 204 137 24 76 723 139
SOURCE: 2000 Census
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Direct and Indirect Impacts
After a disastrous event, it is up to local officials to respond to the needs of the
community. Once there is no longer a threat to lives or property, the physical impact of
the disaster must be measured through a rapid assessment. This includes deaths, injuries,
and property damage and is typically completed one to three hours after the event. If the
extent of the situation is beyond the capabilities of the local jurisdiction, a request is
made to the state for assistance. State and Federal officials then conduct a preliminary
damage assessment (PDA), usually three to four days after the event, to estimate the
extent of the disaster and its impact on individuals and public facilities. The PDA helps
determine if the severity and magnitude is beyond an effective response by the State and
the local government and that Federal assistance is necessary. Normally, the PDA is
completed before the Governor's request for a Presidential Disaster Declaration.
However, when an obviously severe or catastrophic event occurs, the Governor's request
may be submitted prior to the PDA. Once the President approves the request, assistance
through various Federal programs becomes available (GDEM, 2006). The Presidential
Disaster Declaration process is discussed in further detail in Appendix E.
As reported in the Damage Summary section, direct damage reported initially to
the State by Swisher County included 150 damaged residences of which 4 homes were
condemned and 15 were totaled. A total of 29 businesses were heavily damaged or
destroyed with 24 of them being a total loss. The event displaced 500 people and 50
people were out of work temporarily or permanently. No deaths were reported and there
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were 3 injuries. Using these numbers, a rapid request was sent to the State. The State
declared a state disaster and pushed it to the Federal level without an initial PDA. PDA
by State and Federal officials later estimated $2.0 million in direct damage and economic
loss induced by the tornado in Swisher County.
Communication with the City of Tulia and damaged businesses revealed the
extent of the initial impact and the process to recovery. The City of Tulia provided a list
of damaged businesses, this was also the list reported to the state to obtain disaster
declaration status. An establishment-level business survey was created and conducted
with each business via telephone or person. Questions asked included:
How many days did the business remain un-operational?
What type of damage, infrastructure interruption (internet, power, utilities,
etc..), and/or loss of manpower make the business become un-operational?
At what percent capacity was the business functional during the time
period from tornado impact to “normal” operations?
How long did it take to get back to “normal” operations?
Not all businesses responded in part to skepticism, fears of confidentiality thus data may
be incomplete. Continued correspondence with the city and research through the use of
local media provided progress on the rebuilding process. The methodology provides a
unique approach since such surveys are not typically done for larger metro areas due the
number of businesses involved and time constraints. The study here aims to setup a
framework, that when developed further, could be used in future cases. Future efforts
may help build trust with local community and citizens and result in better assessments.
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Table 7 shows the information gathered, as given by impacted businesses and
allowed (i.e., the business gave consent) for use in this study, including the extent of
damage, the number of days the business was un-operational, the time it took to return to
“normal”, and the capacity it was able to run at while un-operational.
Many of the structures had to be demolished and so businesses were forced to
work at alternate locations in other parts of the town, at home, or through FEMA trailers
or makeshift trailers onsite. On average, the majority were not able to conduct business
for about a week while they were sorting out the damage, conducting debris removal, and
setting up an alternate location. After this time many were running at only limited
capacity. The establishments that took longer to get back to “normal” were those that had
to rebuild completely. Eugene’s Used Cars was declared a total loss including 15-20
vehicles that sat in the lot. The building had to be demolished and as they were able to
get new inventory to sell, they were able to return to normal operations within two
months. Bar W Ford sustained significant damage to the building and 30-40 cars in
inventory that at first were unsure if rebuilding would be economically feasible. They
ran at 20% capacity for 2-4 months, only able to perform oil changes while insurance
money came in for them to rebuild and start building up car inventory to sell. The Texas
Boll Weevil Eradication structure was flattened on three sides and had to be demolished.
McDowell Plumbing, Heating, and A/C received minor damage but still had to clean
debris in the area that caused it to be un-operational for a week.. The Mid Plains Rural
Telephone sustained structural damage and had to be rebuilt, running at 60% capacity.
Alco, the only retail store at the time in the community, sustained major damage and
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decided not to rebuild. A total of 20 employees lost their jobs as a result. Walco
International was also heavily damaged and was operating at 75% capacity for two
months as well. Young & Ellis was the last facility to rebuild, completing reconstruction
of a new site in late February 2008. They were able to run out of other locations and
were actually one of the few businesses to see an improvement in business following the
event as people needed to change flat tires or do other automotive repair and maintenance
from damage induced by the tornado.
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Table 7: Businesses receiving damage in Tulia, TX.
Business Category Damage Information #Days Un-operational
Time to get back to Normal
Capacity
Eugene Hurt dba Eugene's Used Cars Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers
Demolished, operated across the street 1 week 2 months 50%
Walco International (2 locations) Veterinary Services Damage, finished repair 1 week ~2 months 75%
Young & Ellis (2 locations) (Swisher tire)
Automotive Repair & Maintenance
Bulldozed April 25; 2 buildings 4 gas/diesel pumps; complete 02/08 0 150%
David Malone Insurance Relocated 50%
Bar W Ford Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers
Semi-relocated; only able to do oil changes
2 weeks, 4 months 20%
Ken Love Car Wash Miscellaneous Retailer
Allsup's #29 Gasoline Station
Richard Bernal dba Ernie's Bar B Que Food Services & Drinking 1 week 100%
Mid Plains Rural Telephone Telecommunication Demolished, rebuilt 60%
Cosby Motor Co dba Double R Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers
Building torn down, relocated
The Sandra Corp dba Alco Discount General Merchandise Stores
Will not rebuild; 20 employees lost job 0%
Ed Rogers Insurance Insurance Agencies Rebuilding new, relocated 1 week 1 month 50%
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Business Category Damage Information #Days Un-operational
Time to get back to Normal
Capacity
Ken Love Real Estate Real Estate Relocated 1 month
Richard McDowell dba McDowell Plumbing, Heating & A/C
Services to Buildings & Dwellings 1 week
WTG Inc Natural Gas Distribution Demolished, rebuilding 3 months
Texas Bollweevil Eradication Agriculture & Forestry Support Activities 3 months
Phillips 66 Oil and Gas
City of Tulia Power Plant Power Generation and Supply Operational 3 days
Swisher County barns Ag Support
Leija's used tires Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers Rebuilding, relocated 1 week 3 months 60%
Hong Kong Restaurant Food Services & Drinking Rebuilding 3 months 0%
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Using the information in Table 7, an economic impact analysis can be performed.
Economic impact analyses are frequently performed in order to assess the change in
overall economic activity as a result of some change or shock in one or several economic
sectors. It can help determine the economic importance an economic development
project or program would have on the local economy or be used to reveal information on
how new businesses, closings of businesses, business expansion, or retail and residential
development would result in the addition or loss of revenue, jobs, or income to the local
economy. The initial change (direct effect) has indirect or multiplier effects that ripple
throughout other sectors of the local economy as they are impacted by changes in local
spending.
For example, a closing of a business within a local area will result in the loss of a
certain amount of jobs and expenditures related to operating the business (direct effect).
The secondary or indirect effects the area would experience would be those changes in
inter-industry transactions as supplying businesses respond to the lack of demand from
that particular business closing. The induced effect would be the reduction in household
spending resulting from income changes in both the direct business closure and
subsequent indirectly affected businesses. Each industry or business that produces goods
and services generates demand for other goods and services, which in turn generates
demand for other goods and services, and on and on until leakages from the region such
as imports, wages, or profits stop the cycle. Initially when a business or industry closes,
demands for goods and services for that business cease and thus impact all business
within that cycle systemically. These iterations or cycles are known as multiplier effects
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and represent the total level of activity that results from the initial closing and the
interdependency between economic sectors in the area’s economy. Economic impact
analyses seek to estimate these multiplier effects.
IMPLAN is frequently used for these types of economic impact analyses. The
data for IMPLAN, a software and database package that was developed by the Minnesota
Implan Group (MIG, Inc.) in Minneapolis, consists of 528 distinct producing industry
sectors collected by the U.S. Department of Commerce, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics,
and other federal and state government agencies. Data is available nationwide, statewide,
and at that county level. It includes outputs and inputs from other sectors, value added,
employment, wages and business taxes paid, imports and exports, final demand by
households and government, capital investment, business inventories, marketing margins,
and inflation factors. IMPLAN is based on an input-output model and is driven by
changes in final demand (sales to final consumers) in order to provide the means to
examine relationships within the impact study area. Local level multipliers are
constructed within IMPLAN to describe the response to a change in demand or
production. That response is usually in the form of gain or loss of jobs or income. The
estimation of multiplier effects between industries are determined from the direct effects,
indirect effects, and induced effects. Input-output models only trace backward linkages
where linkages are defined as those links between industries and consumers. Backward
linkages would be those links between an industry and its supplier or a household and the
producer of household goods and services.
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In IMPLAN, three different multipliers can be estimated to determine economic
impact: Type I, II, and Type SAM. Type I multipliers are those that capture only the
direct and indirect effects (or business to business transactions). Type II multipliers
capture all three effects, the direct, indirect, and induced. Type SAM multipliers also
capture all three effects but also include income that is not normally re-spent immediately
within the area. This includes wages of the people who commute, social security and
income taxes, savings, and money set aside for retirement. Total effect multipliers are
then interpreted as output multipliers, income and employment multipliers, and value
added multipliers. Output multipliers are those changes to final demand by one industry
to total changes in output (dollar value of a good or service produced or sold) by all the
other industries in the local area. Income (money earned within the region) and
employment multipliers are those changes in direct income/job to changes in total
income/job changes within the total economy. For example, if the employment multiplier
was found to be 1.9, the creation of one new job would result in 1.9 jobs in the local
economy. Lastly, value added multipliers relate changes in value added in the industry
experiencing the direct effect to total changes in value added to the local economy.
According to the information provided in Table 3 (as reported to the Texas
Division of Emergency Management) upwards of 50 people were either permanently or
temporarily out of work. The survey data shows that 20 of these people were employed
at Alco which shut down operations completely. A quick analysis of the data suggests
that one immediate impact was an increase in the number of unemployed persons by
36%. Moreover, if we assume that it generally took affected businesses three months to
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fully return to normal (i.e., the mode in the survey responses) then the full time
equivalent job loss was 12.5 jobs. Additionally, a sustained loss of 20 full time jobs was
lost from the closing of Alco.
For the economic impact analysis (EIA) associated with temporary job loss, the
consumption function for households with disposable income of $15,000 - $25,000 was
used to correspond with the per capita income levels for the local area. The EIA was run
using the IMPLAN software and data for Swisher County (the smallest level of
aggregation available) and does not include property damage. The results indicate the
total local impacts were as follows:
Output impact $207,143 Employment impact 0.7 jobs Household income impact $17,305 Indirect business tax impact $5,624
Total economic impact on Swisher County economy was estimated to be nearly
$207,000. This is an all-inclusive measure of the impact on total economic activity.
Employment measures the impact on jobs in terms of the total number of positions and
was estimated to be 0.7 jobs. The direct temporary job loss was expected to reach
$17,305 in local household income. A portion of the direct, indirect and induced
household income will be spent on taxable items. The indirect business tax impact was
found to be over $5,000.
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A separate analysis pertaining to the permanent job loss associated with the closing of
Alco was also conducted. The total impacts represent ongoing losses are as follows:
Output impact $1,073,809 Employment impact 22 jobs Household income impact $377,810 Indirect business tax impact $126,894
The closing of the Alco led to 20 permanent job losses that led to an estimated total
economic impact on Swisher County economy of just over $1,000,000. In total, this led
to an estimate of 22 job losses in Swisher County. The total impact on household income
would be almost $378,000 with an indirect business tax impact of nearly $127,000.
Historical and Current Economic Overview
In order to accurately interpret the above results, one has to put things in
perspective by describing the economy in general over time. Looking at different
economic indicators for Swisher County from years before the tornado in 2007 and after,
also helps to evaluate the impact on the community. Economic indicators include
unemployment and employment, building permits, home sales, poverty rate, tax sales,
and property rate. As discussed in the Local Demographics and Economy portion of the
paper, in 2000 the Services industry employed the most people in Swisher County
followed by the Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting and Mining sector and the
Retail Trade sector. The county overall was struggling and population was on a decline.
Population rates were down between 2006 and 2007 and had been so since 2000 Census
as seen in Table 8. The percentage change from 2006 to 2007 was -0.6%. However,
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after 2007 the county saw increase in people, going from 7700 people to 7995, an
increase of 3.8% (Census, 2009).
The annual unemployment rate for Swisher County (Table 9) steadily increased
from the years 2000 to 2004 from 4% to 5.5%, meaning there were more unemployed
people in 2004 than in 2000. It then declined from 2004 to 2007 from 5.5% to 4.4% as
more people found jobs. The year before the tornado in 2006, 0.1% more of the labor
force did not have jobs meaning more people were employed in 2007. In 2008, a year
after the tornado, unemployment was at 4.6% rising again, a 0.2% change between the
years of 2007 and 2008 (Texas EDGE Data Center, 2009). Unemployment is an
economic condition that defines the number of individuals actively seeking jobs but still
remain unhired. It is expressed as a percentage of the total available workforce and the
level of unemployment varies with economic conditions and other circumstances. When
workers are unemployed, their families lose wages, the community loses goods or
services that could have been produced, and the purchasing power of the workers
decreases, which in the end can lead to unemployment for other workers.
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Swisher County Annual Unemployment Rate
4
4.3
4.8
5.2
5.5
4.64.7
4.4
4.5
3.5
4
4.5
5
5.5
6
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Year
Un
emp
loym
ent
Rat
e (%
)
Figure 13: Unemployment rate trend from 2000 to 2008.
The poverty rate in 2007 for Swisher County was at 18.6% (Table 9). The
previous year, the poverty rate was higher at 19.2% meaning that the percentage of
persons who were poor fell from the years 2006 to 2007 by 1.6% or an annual change of -
1.6%. The average annual change from 2002-2007 is -0.4% so fewer people were below
the poverty line or better off in 2007 than the average since 2002 (Texas EDGE Data
Center, 2009).
Employment by industry (Table 10) reveals significant distribution in industry
employment. The greatest decline in employment occurred in the Transportation and
Warehouse where 36.7% less people were employed by this industry. That number was
drastically higher than the average 4 year annual growth percentage of 2.9%. The
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Construction industry also saw a loss of 20% of employees, where the average 4 year
annual growth was -2.4%. Industries that did exhibit growth included the Professional
and Business Services and Financial Activities. Professional and Business Services
sector was at an increase of 11.1% where the average 4 year annual growth was 1.8%.
Financial Activities was up 9.3% with an average 4 year annual growth of -2.0%. The
Government industry, which comprises the largest percentage of county employment saw
only a -0.1% change from 2006 to 2007. The second highest employer sector, Natural
Resources and Mining was down 7.7% (Texas EDGE Data Center, 2009).
Total property value in the year 2007 was $419,850,389 with a property value per
capita of $54,526 (Table 9). Property values increased from the previous year 8.9% with
a 9.6% increase of property value per capita. Both these numbers were significantly
higher than the average annual percent change from the years 2002-2007 which were
3.3% and 4.3% respectively Property values are affected by social, economic,
governmental and environmental forces. Low mortgage rates can drive home prices up
by giving buyers more purchasing power and a higher demand for housing. Additionally,
communities that have a strong job base will have a higher housing demand thus causing
higher sale prices. Communities that are struggling economically will have less demand
for housing and thus lower property values will exist. Total property tax rates did not
change from 2006 to 2007, remaining at 0.71% as shown in Table 11 (Texas EDGE Data
Center, 2009).
Home sales data was not able to be obtained for the county. New residential
construction in Swisher County has been non-existent since 2000 based on building
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permit data (Table 12 - Table 14). Building permit activity serves as an economic
indicator because it reveals the number of authorized permits for new residential
construction or additions which can mean more investment into the community. The
average value of the unit is also an indirect economic indicator of the amount of
disposable income invested in housing because the higher the value, the more money
people are spending on house development or improving existing housing. Data from
1980 to 2007 for single-family, 2-4 family, and 5+ family building permits (U.S. Bureau
of Census and Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University, 2009). One building permit
for a single family home was issued in 2007 for an average value of $164,000. No
permits have been issued for 2-4 family units since 1993, and 5+ family housing units
since 1980 (Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University, 2009).
A look at sales tax from 2002 to 2008 for both Tulia (Table 15) and Swisher
County (Table 16) reveals that there were less gross sales in 2007 than in 2006, down
2.5%. The average annual percent change from the years 2003 to 2007 was -0.6 so there
were fewer taxable sales in 2007 than on average from previous years. Gross sales were
$89,841,198 with $16,928,725 subject to tax for the county in 2007 and $99,014,349 with
$17,369,165 subject to tax in 2006. However, gross sales were fairly comparable to
sales in years previous to 2006. Looking at the towns individually in Swisher, taxable
sales during 2007 in the city of Tulia $14,901,626, down 5.0% from 2006. In the other
two communities sales were up from 2006, 65.0% from 2006 in Happy at $666,073 and
up 9.4% in Kress at $437,090 (Texas EDGE Data Center, 2009).
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A look at state expenditures the county from 2007 to 2000 reveals the highest
amount in 2007 with a total of $31,706,808 up 20% from 2006. State expenditures
money provided to the county for services and are broken down into categories of
Intergovernmental Payments, Labor Costs, Public Assistance, Highway Construction and
Maintenance, Operating Expenses, Capital Outlays, and Miscellaneous (Texas EDGE
Data Center, 2009). Definitions of each are listed below:
Intergovernmental Payments include grants to schools, colleges and local
governments; allocations of mixed beverage tax to cities and counties, and
textbooks for public schools and distribution of Foundation School Program funds
to local school districts.
Labor Costs are salaries and wages, employee benefits payments, travel expenses
and fees for professional consultant services. Also included is the state’s share of
retirement contributions on behalf of state employees and public school teachers.
Public Assistance is composed of Temporary Assistance for Needy Families,
Medicaid, grants-in-aid, child support payments and similar types of state
services. Expenditures for Placement Services.
Highway Construction and Maintenance includes purchases of highway right-of-
way and the expenses of constructing and maintaining the state’s roads and
bridges.
Operating Expenses are those for supplies, maintenance, utilities, rentals and
leases, printing and non-capitalized equipment.
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Capital Outlay expenditures are for land and buildings, major improvements to
state property, computer equipment, motor vehicles, aircraft and capitalized
purchases of furniture and equipment.
Miscellaneous includes all expenditures not covered above, such as fees, court
costs, interest on debt, lottery payments and payment of claims and judgments.
In 2007, more money was spent in Labor Costs, Intergovernmental Payments, and
Miscellaneous expenditures for the county than in 2006. Less money was spent in
Highway Construction and Maintenance and Capital Outlay.
Agriculturally, agricultural cash values in Swisher County averaged $157 million
annually from 2004 to 2007. County total agricultural values in 2007 were up nearly
92.6 % from 2006. Major agriculture related commodities in Swisher County during
2007 included corn, cotton, fed beef, other beef, and wheat.
Overall, analysis of the estimated changes from the EIA and the historical and
current economy suggest large impacts to Swisher County considering the small
economy. Yet the impacts on business loss as estimated from the EIA are likely
underestimated due to full data availability. The framework established here will help
produce a method that if developed further, could be used in the future and be used as an
extra tool for emergency managers to quickly and more thoroughly estimate impacts and
be able to disseminate the information to the appropriate levels for eligibility of disaster
relief funds.
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Table 8: Population data for Swisher County (Texas EDGE Data Center, 2009).
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Table 9: Unemployment, income, poverty, property values, and sales activity (Texas EDGE Data Center, 2009).
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Table 10: Industry employment for Swisher County (Texas EDGE Data Center, 2009).
Table 11: 1992-2007 Property Tax rates for Swisher County (Census, 2009).
County 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Swisher 0.53 0.6 0.63 0.63 0.62 0.64 0.64 0.64 0.64 0.63 0.63 0.68 0.68 0.673 0.71 0.71
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Table 12: Swisher County, TX Single-Family Building Permit (Source: U.S. Bureau of Census and Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University, 2009). .
Number of Dwelling
Units
Average Value per Dwelling
Unit ($)
YearUnitsPercentChange Value
PercentChange
1980 12 - 23,200 -1981 0 -100 - -1982 2 - 47,500 -1983 4 100 75,800 601984 4 0 51,400 -321985 3 -25 48,300 -61986 1 -67 20,000 -591987 3 200 32,500 621988 2 -33 67,900 1091989 1 -50 122,000 801990 2 100 67,500 -451991 1 -50 30,000 -561992 3 200 108,300 2611993 0 -100 - -1994 0 - - -1995 2 - 82,500 -1996 0 -100 - -1997 3 - 73,300 -1998 2 -33 69,000 -61999 3 50 129,300 872000 0 -100 - -2001 0 - - -2002 0 - - -2003 0 - - -2004 0 - - -2005 0 - - -2006 0 - - -2007 1 - 164,000 -
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Table 13: Swisher County, TX 2-4 Family Building Permit (Source: U.S. Bureau of Census and Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University, 2009).
Number of Dwelling
Units
Average Value per Dwelling
Unit ($)
YearUnitsPercentChange Value
PercentChange
1980 0 - - -1981 0 - - -1982 0 - - -1983 30 - 30,600 -1984 2 -93 33,000 81985 0 -100 - -1986 0 - - -1987 0 - - -1988 0 - - -1989 0 - - -1990 2 - 48,500 -1991 0 -100 - -1992 2 - 16,000 -1993 0 -100 - -1994 0 - - -1995 0 - - -1996 0 - - -1997 0 - - -1998 0 - - -1999 0 - - -2000 0 - - -2001 0 - - -2002 0 - - -2003 0 - - -2004 0 - - -2005 0 - - -2006 0 - - -2007 0 - - -
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Table 14: Swisher County, TX 5+ Family Building Permit (Source: U.S. Bureau of Census and Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University, 2009).
Number of Dwelling
Units
Average Value per Dwelling
Unit ($)
Year UnitsPercentChange Value
PercentChange
1980 0 - - -1981 0 - - -1982 0 - - -1983 0 - - -1984 0 - - -1985 0 - - -1986 0 - - -1987 0 - - -1988 0 - - -1989 0 - - -1990 0 - - -1991 0 - - -1992 0 - - -1993 0 - - -1994 0 - - -1995 0 - - -1996 0 - - -1997 0 - - -1998 0 - - -1999 0 - - -2000 0 - - -2001 0 - - -2002 0 - - -2003 0 - - -2004 0 - - -2005 0 - - -2006 0 - - -2007 0 - - -
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Table 15: Sales Tax, Taxable Sales Report, from 2002-2008 for the City of Tulia (Texas EDGE Data Center, 2009).
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Table 16: Sales Tax, Taxable Sales Report, from 2002-2008 for the Swisher County (Texas EDGE Data Center, 2009).
Texas Tech University, Maribel Martinez, May 2009
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0
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
30,000,000
35,000,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Year
Swisher County State Expenditures 2000-2007
INTERGOVERNMENTAL PAYMENTS LABOR COSTS
PUBLIC ASSISTANCE HIGHWAY CONSTRUCTION & MAINTENANCE
OPERATING EXPENSES CAPITAL OUTLAYS
MISC.
YEAR TOTALINTER
GOVERNMENTAL PAYMENTS
LABOR
COSTS
PUBLIC
ASSISTANCE
HIGHWAY CONSTRUCTION &
MAINTENANCE
OPERATING
EXPENSES
CAPITAL
OUTLAYSMISC.
2000 25,007,431 10,947,911 4,381,226 4,609,224 4,728,265 207,954 12,180 120,6712001 30,748,030 12,117,315 7,865,121 6,386,309 3,951,851 290,695 6,219 130,5192002 27,454,259 10,239,054 8,538,533 7,133,078 1,185,496 233,018 0 125,0792003 27,977,246 12,158,497 8,102,427 6,949,287 357,077 291,201 600 118,1582004 27,345,064 11,403,689 8,712,001 6,323,767 547,604 275,596 900 81,5062005 29,157,998 10,600,960 10,521,615 6,042,023 1,593,704 300,009 19,875 79,8122006 26,354,963 9,917,465 6,364,612 6,069,494 3,402,741 556,450 3,475 40,7262007 31,706,808 11,474,112 10,683,494 6,622,088 2,395,711 451,058 3,150 77,195
Figure 14: Swisher County state expenditures from 2000-2007 (Texas EDGE Data Center, 2009).
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CHAPTER IV
CLOVIS, NM TORNADO
Storm Synopsis
Over ten tornadoes were confirmed in eastern New Mexico on March 23, 2007 as
steep lapse rates, deep layer shear, and rich moisture destabilized the environment and
made it conducive for supercellular formation. As seen in Figure 15, tornado reports
(depicted in red) were concentrated along the eastern New Mexico border and were
accompanied by reports of high damaging winds (depicted in blue) and large hailstones
(depicted in green). The system trekked northward, where the tornadic threat diminished
and evolved into a large linear line that produced a significant hail event over the
northern Texas Panhandle and central Kansas. While over eastern New Mexico, the
counties of Quay, Lea, Roosevelt, and Curry received the most significant damage from
tornadic winds including damage to roofs, mobile homes, and homes. The time and
location for each of the tornado touchdowns on March 23, 2007 is shown in Table 17.
The most severe damage was reported in Logan and Clovis, New Mexico.
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Figure 15: Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Storm Reports for March 23, 2007. Red dots are tornado reports, green dots represent large hail reports, and blue depict high wind reports (SPC Clovis, 2007).
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Table 17: Tornado storm report information for March 23, 2007 (SPC Clovis, 2007).
Time Location County State Comments
2125 LOGAN QUAY NM Rooftop torn off church in town of Logan. Several mobile homes demolished. Some injuries. (ABQ)
2231 16 WNW LOVINGTON
LEA NM (MAF)
2308 10 N MCDONALD
LEA NM Tornado touched down west of Tatum and north of McDonald. (MAF)
2321 7 NW TATUM LEA NM (MAF)
2334 12 N TATUM LEA NM Tornado touchdown on SH 206 between Tatum and Crossroads. (MAF)
0004 3 N CROSSROADS
LEA NM
Media reported a car overturned by a brief tornado 3 north of Crossroads on State Highway 206...Awaiting further information. (MAF)
0005 1 S MILNESAND
ROOSEVELT NM Barns damaged (ABQ)
0124 2 N ARCH ROOSEVELT NM Large tornado (ABQ) 0128 ROGERS ROOSEVELT NM Home destroyed in Rogers (ABQ)
0142 10 NE PORTALES
ROOSEVELT NM Tornado near curry county line. South of Texico just north of hwy 202 -ABQ
0154 6 SE CLOVIS CURRY NM *** 2 injuries *** houses destroyed on Curry county road 4
0158 10 ESE LAKEWOOD
EDDY NM Rope tornado reported 10-12 miles east southeast of Lakewood. (MAF)
0200 15 E LAKEWOOD
EDDY NM Public reported a rope tornado on the ground east of Lakewood. (MAF)
0205 3 S FARWELL PARMER TX Relayed by KLBK viewer. No details known at this time on damage. (LUB)
0420 7 SW MORTON
COCHRAN TX
Law enforcement reports southwest gin destroyed 7 sw Morton. House damaged 3 nw Morton. Multiple reports from local fire departments of tornado sightings (LUB)
0859 MCLEAN GRAY TX
Path length of 2 miles and width of 50 yards. Ef1 tornadic damage on south and east sides of McLean centered on south FM 3143 (AMA)
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Steep lapse rates and deep layer shear supportive of supercells characterized the
environment for the day. A vigorous upper level low, as depicted in the 0000 UTC
March 24, 2007 upper air analysis (Figure 16-Figure 19), was located across eastern
Arizona. As the system progressed northward toward southwestern New Mexico, storm
development increased. Aloft, winds were strong south-southwesterly. Flow at 500 mb
showed a 50-70 kt southerly jet streak into eastern New Mexico which aided in ample
wind energy and wind shear. Strong low level southerly winds, gusting to around 40 kts,
maintained the moisture field into eastern New Mexico and Western Texas where surface
dew points rose to the upper 50s and lower 60s (Figure 20). Coupled with the moisture
availability, the environment was characterized by moderate instability with a favorable
deep layer wind shear structure. The potential existed for isolated tornadoes across
southern New Mexico and eastward into the Transpecos/South Plains region of Texas.
MLCAPE values of 1000-2000 J/kg based on a 100 hPa mixed layer were present in the
region. MLCAPE values between 1000-2500 J/kg characterize moderately unstable
environments.
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Figure 16: Upper air analysis 250 mb observations and isotachs for 0000 UTC on 23 March 2007.
Figure 17: Upper air analysis 500 mb observations and isotachs for 0000 UTC on 23 March 2007.
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Figure 18: Upper air analysis 700 mb observations and isotachs for 0000 UTC on 23 March 2007.
Figure 19: Upper air analysis 850 mb observations and isotachs for 0000 UTC on 23 March 2007.
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Figure 20: Surface observations and isotachs for 0000 UTC on 23 March 2007.
Storms began to develop along central New Mexico in the afternoon hours. As
the cells moved northeastward they converged into a line extending from the Concho
Valley in Texas upward to central Kansas. The particular supercell that impacted Clovis,
first produced a tornado out in Curry County, 12 miles south of the city at 0133 UTC,
prompting a tornado warning for the county. The storm reached the community of Clovis
at 0154 UTC. Cannon AFB base-level radar reflectivity imagery at 0158 UTC (Figure
21) shows the tornadic circulation passing through Clovis with a large hook echo region
over the community. The tornado, later given an EF2 damage rating, traveled an
intermittent 3 mile path through the community. Additionally, the storm was
accompanied by large hail that resulted in over 3600 auto claims (Damage, 2007). In
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Clovis, 35 injuries were reported and two fatalities were associated with damage induced
to a mobile home.
Figure 21: Cannon AFB base-level radar reflectivity imagery at 01:58 UTC as the tornadic circulation passes through Clovis.
Damage Summary
A damage assessment visit to Clovis and communication with the Albuquerque
National Weather Service, revealed that the first primary damage track was observed on
the south side of Clovis, west of Highway 70/18 south of Curry Road as shown in Figure
22. Homes and mobile homes along this path received significant damage and the Clovis
Body Shop was completely destroyed. As the tornado progressed northward, extensive
damage was sustained to a residential area along the highway and east to S. Oaks Street.
The majority of businesses that sustained damage were located just east of Highway
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70/18 and Highway 60/84/70. This included businesses such as CarQuest, Premier
Distributing Company, and ASCO Equipment. The damage track continued north along
Maple Street and a few blocks west of Sycamore Street up to Airport Highway, damaging
mobile homes, power poles, trees, and the roofs of substantial buildings and homes were
heavily damaged or blown off. Three schools sustained damaged in this area; however,
spring break was in effect so school was not impacted by the cleanup and rebuilding
process. More structures were also damaged north of Jonquil Park Drive before the
storm system headed out of town.
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Figure 22: Clovis, New Mexico tornado track (red) on March 23, 2007.
Data from the City of Clovis Building Inspection Department was obtained for a
deeper look at damage estimates.
Figure 23 below shows areas of no damage, minimum damage, moderate damage, and
severe damage as relates to the structure, roof covering, and accumulated building.
Looking at the structure integrity, 409 buildings along the path received no damage, 40
received minimum damage, 52 received moderate damage, and 72 received severe
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damage. The most severe structure damage concentrated along the southernmost track
segment with the least damage along the middle track segment. Roof covering analysis
revealed 84 buildings receiving no damage, 243 receiving minimum damage, 122
receiving moderate damage, and 133 receiving severe damage. Structures near all three
paths received an equal amount of damage with a slighter increased severity along the
southernmost path. Overall accumulated building analysis conferred that the strongest
wind speeds occurred just south of Clovis with still significant wind speeds through
Clovis. Four hundred and seven buildings received no damage, 50 sustained minimum
damage, 18 with moderate damage, and 107 with severe damage.
Damage surveys from the Weather Forecasting Office in Albuquerque estimated
maximum wind speeds ranging from 120 to 125 mph or an EF2 rated tornado. Although
the tornadic circulation stayed above tree level for the majority of the time, according to
National Weather Service officials, significant damage occurred to many residential and
business structures. The major business district was spared from any damage.
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No Damage – 409 Minimum – 49 Moderate – 52
Severe - 72
No Damage – 407Minimum – 50Moderate – 18
Severe - 107
No Damage –84Minimum – 243Moderate – 122
Severe - 133
Figure 23: Geocoded damage information for structure, roof covering, and accumulated building. Units with no damage are shown in green, minimum damage in yellow, moderate damage in orange, and severe in red.
SSTTRRUUCCTTUURREE RROOOOFF CCOOVVEERRIINNGG AACCCC BBLLDDGG
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Figure 24: Damage photos in Clovis, NM (courtesy KAMR-TV Amarillo).
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The tornado displaced 15 families to local hotels and motels and over 200 people
were sheltered. According to local officials, 90% of the area impacted were already
facing economic hardship. Approximately 9 square miles of the town was without
power, affecting 3,000 residents. Cannon Air Force base and the National Guard closed
for a day after the storm to render aid in debris removal and other recovery efforts. The
county landfill had accepted 7,296 tons of debris as of April 3, 2007 yet several resident
owners had not been able to be contacted regarding cleanup. Clovis damage assessment
figures reported to the New Mexico Office of Emergency Management listed 154
affected, 249 damaged, and 55 destroyed residential structures for a total of 458
structures. Business structures impacted included 5 affected, 27 damaged, and 1
destroyed for a total of 33 structures. Table 18 below is a list of businesses in the Clovis
area receiving damage based on communication with the Curry County Emergency
Management Coordinator. Two agriculture structures were also completely destroyed.
The Grande Vida Dairy received damage in the amount of $3-4 million. Over 300 cows
were killed and owners estimated a 4-6 month period to rebuild and become operational
again. Further detail on the impacts will be discussed in later sections.
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Table 18: Businesses receiving damage in Clovis, NM.
Business
Clovis Body Shop
Car Quest Premier Distributing Co ASCO Equipment Autoworld Mainline Bowl Smith RV & Marine Denton W T Warehouse Grande Vida Dairy Yucca Junior High Lakewood Elementary Parkview Elementary
A state disaster proclamation by Governor Bill Richardson was issued for Curry
and Quay counties on March 29, 2007 and was approved on April 2, 2007 by the federal
government as a Presidential declaration of a major disaster for the State of New Mexico.
The declaration covered damage incurred on March 23-34 in Curry County and Quay
County invoking the Federal Stafford Act. Funds from the Individual Assistance
program were made available and Hazard Mitigation funds were made open to the state.
Homeowners and property owners not covered by insurance were eligible to receive
financial assistance, temporary housing, repair funds, tax relief, legal services, crisis
counseling, and disaster unemployment assistance. Additional funds were also made
available for costs incurred by those not met by insurance or low interest loans. Over
$750,000 in state funds were released for roads, power lines, infrastructure, and to cover
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overtime wages for emergency response. Through federal aid programs, assistance for
affected individuals and families included:
Rental payments for temporary housing (3 months for homeowners, 1 month for renters)
Grants for home repairs and replacement of essential household items not covered by insurance.
Grants to replace personal property and help meet medical, dental, funeral, transportation, and other serious disaster related needs (FEMA 75% and state 25%).
Unemployment payments up to 26 weeks for workers who temporarily lost jobs and do not qualify for state benefits (those who are self-employed).
Low interest loans to cover residential losses not covered by insurance ($200,000 residential, $40,000 personal property, $1.5 million business property loss).
Loans in the amount of $1.5 million for small businesses that have suffered disaster-related cash flow problems.
Loans up to $500,000 for agriculture purposes.
Local Demographics and Economy
Clovis is located in the far east-central portion of New Mexico in the Llano
Estacado. Serving a nine-county area consisting of mainly small rural communities (a
total population of 104,075), the city of Clovis spans 22.5 square miles and is the county
seat for Curry County. According to the 2000 U.S. Census (Table 19), Clovis had a
population of 32,667 people with 12,458 households and 8,596 families residing in the
city. The corresponding number of employed civilians (over 16 years of age) was
12,708 or about 54%. There were 937 people or 4% that were unemployed. About 17%
of families and 21% of the population were below the poverty line, including 28% of
those under age 18 and 15% of those age 65 or older. The median income for a
household in the city was $28,878, while the median income for a family was $33,622
(Census, 2008).
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Table 19: 2000 U.S. Census information for Clovis, NM (Census, 2008). Population 32,667
Number of Households 12,458
Number of Families 8,596
Employed (over 16) 12,708 (54%)
Unemployed 937 (4%)
In Poverty 21%
The Clovis Independent School District is home to 13 elementary schools, 3
junior high schools, and 1 high school. Total student enrollment for students K-12 is
8,225 and the student to teacher ratio is 14 to 1. Colleges and universities in the area
include Clovis Community College where about 74% of the student population is
enrolled part-time and a Wayland Baptist University campus located downtown. The
closest four year university is Eastern New Mexico University (about 5,000 students),
located in nearby Portales (18.4 miles). As far as educational attainment, 27.9% of the
population have received a high school diploma or equivalent, while more than 30% have
some college or a higher degree (Census, 2008)
Economically, Clovis is the principal city of the Clovis Micropolitan Statistical
Area and the larger Clovis-Portales Microplex Combined Statistical Area (customer base
of 50,000) created in 2003. Clovis saw a record year for breaking economic development
in 2004 with the development of many new stores and restaurants as well as new hotels in
the northern and mid-sections of town. The launch of new residential construction and a
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Super Wal-Mart in the northern part of town, has brought businesses such as Lowe’s
Home Improvement, a Dollar Tree store, Town & Country gas station, Payless Shoes,
Quizno’s, Rib Crib, Chili’s Bar and Grill, Applebee’s, Snyder’s Cleaners, a car
dealership and a strip mall with several specialty shops to the area. In mid-town, a
refurbished Furr’s grocery store has been transformed to the Master’s Center which
houses a Christian bookstore, the Java Loft, All About Sports, National Travel Systems,
and a Trinity Family Medicine. Additionally, a Hobby Lobby, Sprint, Dollar Tree,
Hastings Bookstore, IHOP and other specialty shops fill the shopping center across the
street. In 2005, the Southwest Cheese Company, one of the largest plants of its type in
the world, began operations and produces in excess of 2.3 billion pounds of milk yearly.
The plant has provided a substantial boost to the local economy, employing over 200
personnel. Clovis is also home to the Cannon Air Force Base and a small Army National
Guard located 8.6 miles away. The base has over 3,200 authorized active military
personnel and an additional 900 civilian employees assigned to the base, making it the
major employer for the Clovis area. Table 20 below lists the other top employers. Clovis
Municipal Schools is the second top employer with just over 1,000 employees (Clovis,
2008).
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Table 20: Major employers for the Clovis area (Clovis, 2008).
MAJOR EMPLOYERS NUMBER Cannon AFB Combat-Fighter Wing 3,281 Clovis Municipal Schools 1,050 Cannon AFB Civilian Personnel 900 Plains Regional Medical Center 592 Burlington Northern Santa Fe Railroad 525 Wal-Mart 412 Federal Employees 368 City of Clovis 360 Eastern NM Rehabilitation Service 300 State of New Mexico 215 ENMR/Plateau Telecommunications 215 Allsups 200 Clovis Community College 170 McDonalds 135 Curry County 120 K-Barnett & Sons 115 Sears Roebuck 102
Overall, the diverse economy of Clovis and Curry County is based on agriculture,
railroad, military and light manufacturing. The area hosts agriculture and ranching,
including peanut and cotton farming and cattle ranching, for meat and dairy production.
Education, health, and social services comprise the majority of the industry sector in
Clovis employing 23.9% as seen below in Table 21. This sector includes establishments
such as schools, colleges, universities, and training centers while the health care and
social services are comprised of establishments providing health care and social
assistance for industries. In Clovis, the educational, health and social services would
mainly be consisted of the Clovis School District, Clovis Community College, Wayland
Baptist University campus, and the Plains Regional Medical Center. The retail trade
sector, those establishments that sell merchandise in small quantities to the general
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public, is the second top industry with 2,231 employees or 17.6% of all industries. The
remaining sectors such as public administration, manufacturing, agriculture, and
construction are fairly equally distributed. Wholesale trade makes up the smallest
percent of all industries at 1.7%.
Table 21: Major industry sectors for Clovis (Clovis, 2008)
INDUSTRY NUMBER PERCENTEducational, health and social services 3,033 23.9Retail trade 2,231 17.6Arts, entertainment, recreation, accommodation and food services 1,095 8.6Transportation and warehousing, and utilities 966 7.6Public administration 936 7.4Other services (except public administration) 752 5.9Manufacturing 723 5.7Professional, scientific, management, administrative, and waste management services 702 5.5Construction 657 5.2Finance, insurance, real estate, and rental and leasing 652 5.1Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting, and mining 465 3.7Information 283 2.2Wholesale trade 213 1.7
Curry County had a population of 45,044 people in 2000. As shown in Figure 25,
the population in the county has fluctuated, decreasing from the years 2000 to 2002. A
significant increase occurred between the years of 2003 and 2004 during the development
boom in Clovis. Since then, it has gradually decreased but between 2007 and 2008, there
was an increase of approximately 2.9%. In 2000, there were 16,766 households and
11,870 families residing in the county. The median income for a household was $28,917,
and the median income for a family was $33,900. About 19% of the population was
below the poverty line (Census, 2008). Major industry of employment (Table 22) was
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the educational, health and services sector, employing 22.3% or 3788 people of the
county labor force. Retail trade followed with 16.3% and Public Administration with
8%. Remaining categories were fairly equal distributed around 7.9 to 4.8% with the
Wholesale Trade sector accounting for the least at 1.9% or 316 people of the labor force.
45044
44648 4468745004
45788 4585345626
45328
46648
43500
44000
44500
45000
45500
46000
46500
47000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Year
Curry County Population Estimates 2000-2008 (U.S. Census Bureau)
Figure 25: Curry County population estimates 2000-2008 (data from Census, 2009).
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Table 22: Curry County employment by industry (Census, 2008).
INDUSTRY Number Percent Educational, health, and social services 3788 22.3Retail Trade 2763 16.3Public Administration 1365 8Arts, entertainment, recreation, accommodation and food services 1346 7.9Transportation and warehousing, and utilities 1271 7.5Construction 1072 6.3Other services (except public administration 1060 6.2Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting, and mining 996 5.9Manufacturing 914 5.4Professional, scientific, management, administrative an d waste management services 893 5.3Finance, insurance, real estate, and rental and leasing 823 4.8Information 376 2.2Wholesale Trade 316 1.9
Direct & Indirect Impacts
As reported in the Damage Summary section, direct damage reported initially to
the State by Curry County included 154 affected homes, 249 damaged, and 55 destroyed
homes for a total of 458. A total of 33 businesses were reported with 5 affected, 27
damaged, and only 1 destroyed. The event displaced 15 people and 200 were taken into
shelters. Using these numbers, a rapid request was sent to the State where a State
declared disaster was issued and pushed to the Federal level pending a PDA. Upon
completion of the State and Federal officials’ damage survey, a Presidential Disaster was
declared.
Communication with the City of Clovis and damaged businesses revealed the
extent of the initial impact and the process to recovery. The City of Clovis provided a list
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of damaged businesses and an establishment-level business survey was created and
conducted with each business via telephone or person. Questions asked included:
How many days did the business remain un-operational?
What type of damage, infrastructure interruption (internet, power, utilities,
etc..), and/or loss of manpower make the business become un-operational?
What was the extent of the damage and did the business have to relocate?
How many employees does the business have?
How long did it take to get back to “normal” operations?
Not all businesses responded in part to skepticism, fears of confidentiality thus data may
be incomplete. Continued correspondence and research through the use of local media
provided progress on the rebuilding process.
A list of impacted businesses is shown in Table 23 below. Information gathered,
as given by impacted businesses and allowed for use in this study, included the extent of
damage – whether damaged or destroyed, if the business relocated, the number of
employees, the number of days the business was un-operational, and any additional
comments.
The business district in Clovis was not as impacted as in the case of Tulia. The
Clovis Body Shop sustained major damage, deemed structurally unsafe, and was
relocated to another location. They were un-operational for about a week while the
clean-up was complete. AutoWorld also sustained major damage to the building and to
its car inventory. They estimated damage to be between $130,000 to $140,000 and were
out of operation for 5 days. Smith RV and Marine also sustained major damage
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destroying 28 out of the 30 units they had available to sell. Although they stated they
were not un-operational for any length of time, they did relocate and bring in new
vehicles to sell. ASCO, Premier Distributing Company, and CarQuest each had minor
damage with no real impact. Three schools also received minor damage but since
students were on spring break, no major interruptions occurred. The most extensive
damage was sustained to the Grande Vida Dairy where an estimated $3-4 million in
damage occurred. This included 2000 head of cattle plus an additional 350 dairy cows,
additional production loss, $100,000 in damage to structures, and wheat crop loss. Farm
operations were ongoing as barns and cleanup continued but dairy production ceased for
4 months.
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Table 23: Businesses impacted in Clovis, NM.
Business Damaged Destroyed Relocated #Employees#Days Un-operational
Comments Category
Clovis Body Shop
x x 5 1 week
whole building structurally unsafe, at a new location, waiting on insurance
Motor vehicle and parts dealers
Car Quest x 3 none
has several location throughout Clovis, felt no impact
Motor vehicle and parts dealers
Premier Distributing Co x -- none none
Food & beverage store
ASCO Equipment
x 11 0
85% roof off, 8 big doors, N-S walls, fence, some equipment; w/o phone for a day, internet -1 week, business wise back to normal, in office trailers & no sign
Automotive equipment rental and leasing
Autoworld
x 8 5
27 cars damaged, windows, sign, about 130-140,000 in damage
Motor vehicle and parts dealers
Mainline Bowl x 5 9 months destroyed, rebuilt 12/07 Bowling Centers
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Business Damaged Destroyed Relocated #Employees#Days Un-operational
Comments Category
Smith RV & Marine
x x 7 0 28 out of 30 units destroyed
Motor vehicle and parts dealers
Denton W T Warehouse x x n/a n/a
whole building structurally unsafe
Warehousing and storage
Grande Vida Dairy
x 5 ~4 months
Rebuilding, 2000 head of cattle to replace, $100,000 in damage, wheat crop lost
Cattle ranching and farming
Yucca Junior High
x n/a n/a roof, a/c units, students on spring break
State & local education
Lakewood Elementary x n/a n/a
students on spring break
State & local education
Parkview Elementary x n/a n/a
students on spring break
State & local education
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Using the information in Table 23 the EIA for temporary job loss was estimated
using multipliers from a combination of Curry and Roosevelt counties due to the location
of the dairy and does not include property damage. The full time equivalent job is the
establishment’s number of employees multiplied by the proportion of the year it was un-
operational. From the survey data there are 6 full time equivalent jobs. As in the Tulia
case, a consumption function for households based on disposable income of $15,000 to
25,000 was used to correspond with the per capita income levels for the local area. The
results indicate the total local impacts were as follows:
Output impact $102,504 Employment impact 0.8 Household income impact $16,873 Indirect business tax impact $3,301
Total economic impact on both Counties economy was estimated to be just over
$102,000. This is an all-inclusive measure of the impact on total economic activity.
Employment measures the impact on jobs in terms of the total number of positions and
was estimated to be 0.8 jobs. The direct temporary job loss was expected to reach
$16,873 in local household income. A portion of the direct, indirect and induced
household income will be spent on taxable items. The indirect business tax impact was
found to be over $3,000.
Historical and Current Economic Overview
In order to accurately interpret the above results, one has to put things in
perspective by describing the economy in general over time. Looking at different
economic indicators for Clovis and Curry County from years before and after the tornado
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in 2007, also helps to evaluate the impact on the community. Economic indicators
include unemployment and employment, building permits, home sales, poverty rate, tax
sales, and property rate. As discussed in the Local Demographics and Economy portion
of the paper, in 2000 the Educational, Health, and Social Services employed the most
people in Clovis followed by the Retail Trade sector and the Arts, Entertainment,
Recreation, Accommodation, and Food Services sector. The county population was
fluctuating with a decline since 2005 after the development boom of 2004. However,
after 2007 the county saw an increase in populate rate, rising from 45328 people to
46648, the sharpest increase the county had seen since 2000.
The annual unemployment rate for Curry County remained fairly constant from
the years 2000 to 2005 from 4.7% to 4.3% (Figure 26). It then declined from 2005 to
2006 from 4.3% to 3.5% as more people found jobs. In 2007, it dropped yet again from
3.5% to 2.7%. In 2008, a year after the tornado, unemployment rose slightly, a 0.2%
change between the years of 2007 and 2008. Employment and labor force numbers from
2000 to 2008 in Table 24 show an increase from 21,278 to 21,550 between the years
2007 and 2008, an additional 282 eligible employees. Median household income
increased 6.3% from the years 2006 to 2007 from $33,160 to $35,243 (Table 25).
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Curry County Annual Unemployment Rate
4.7
4.3 4.3
3.5
2.9
4.5
4.4
2.7
4.8
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Year
Un
em
plo
ym
en
t R
ate
(%
)
Figure 26: Curry County annual unemployment rate (Census, 2008).
Covered wage and salary employment by major industry reveals significant shifts
in industry employment specifically from the years 2006 and 2007 (Table 22). The
greatest decline in employment during the two years occurred in the Information sector
where 18.1% less people were employed. Arts, Entertainment & Recreation also had a
drop of 14.8% and Transportation & Warehousing dropped 12.9%. The Construction
industry saw a loss of only 2.4%. Top industries that exhibited growth included the
Administrative & Waste Services and Wholesale Trade at 21.6% and 15.6%
respectively.
Overall housing units in Curry County in 2007 increased from the previous year.
In 2006 there were 20,122 units and in 2007 there were 20,357 units. This was an
increase of 1.2%. New residential construction or additions (
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Table 27) in Curry County based on new residential building permits in 2007 saw a
decline of about 100 permits from the previous year or a 39% decrease. A total of 98
single family permits and 55 multi-family permits where issued for a total of 153 in the
year 2007 where 2006 saw 147 single family permits and 104 permits for multi-family
units. The years 2006 and 2004 saw the most multi-family permits due to the business
development boom of 2004. The total value of the units in 2007 for single family permits
was $20,569,281, $5,873,201 for multi-family permits with an overall total of
$26,442,482.
Agriculturally, total value of agricultural products in Curry County for 2007 was
about $347 million. Market value of production between the years 2002 and 2007 were
up 49%. Major agriculture related commodities in Curry County during 2007 included
wheat, forage-land used for all hay and haylage, sorghum, and corn. Curry County held
the second highest value of sales in the state for grains, oilseeds, dry beans, and dry peas
($27 million), cattle and calves ($100 million), and milk and other dairy products from
cows ($209 million). (Census of Agriculture, 2009).
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Table 24: Curry County civilian labor force and unemployment rate (Clovis, 2009). Civilian Labor Force, by County (Annual Averages)
Civilian UnemploymentLabor Force Employment Number Rate (%) Year
Curry 18,723 17,848 875 4.7 2000Curry 18,876 18,060 816 4.3 2001Curry 19,253 18,333 920 4.8 2002Curry 19,830 18,931 899 4.5 2003Curry 20,326 19,428 898 4.4 2004Curry 20,737 19,854 883 4.3 2005Curry 21,178 20,432 746 3.5 2006Curry 21,278 20,710 568 2.7 2007Curry 21,550 20,933 617 2.9 2008
Table 25: Curry County housing estimates (Clovis, 2009).
July 1, July 1, July 1, July 1, July 1, July 1, July 1, 20002007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 Census
20,357 20,122 19,987 19,786 19,563 19,457 19,327 19,212
2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 200035,243 33,160 33,548 31,824 30,823 29,698 29,472 29,703
Per Capita Personal Income*, New Mexico Counties 2000-2006
Housing Unit Estimates
Median Household Income
2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 200020619 22894 23434 24,301 25,727 27,017 28,173
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Table 26: Employment by industrial sectors for Curry County (Clovis, 2009).
COVERED WAGE AND SALARY EMPLOYMENT # BY MAJOR INDUSTRIAL SECTOR CURRY COUNTY
Sector 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Grand Total 14,015 14,601 15,169 15,607 16,034 16,449 16,702
Total Private 10,567 11,175 11,730 12,231 12,681 13,150 13,364 Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting D D D D D D D Mining D D D D D D D Utilities 82 81 85 85 82 80 79
Construction 686 779 903 929 1,033 1,014 990
Manufacturing 335 330 344 350 443 617 576 Wholesale Trade 347 332 361 422 439 468 541 Retail Trade 2,162 2,165 2,228 2,355 2,335 2,260 2,350 Transportation & Warehousing 304 302 298 439 441 381 332
Information 389 399 414 243 237 226 185
Finance & Insurance 471 511 522 553 572 538 506 Real Estate & Rental & Leasing 133 139 150 153 145 154 151
Professional & Technical Services D D D D D D D Management of Companies & Enterprises D D D D D D D Administrative & Waste Services 279 323 403 395 354 407 495 Educational Services 6 D D D D D 11
Health Care & Social Assistance 2,083 D D D D D 2,662 Arts, Entertainment & Recreation 82 88 109 92 78 88 75 Accommodation & Food Services 1,564 1,523 1,524 1,517 1,617 1,719 1,668 Other Services, ex. Public
Administration 391 436 442 435 453 451 443 Unclassified 0 0 2 12 5 3 3
Total Government 3,448 3,427 3,439 3,376 3,353 3,300 3,339
Federal Local 2,227 2,221 2,245 2,197 2,141 2,106 2,208
856 915 886 869 878 853 782 State 323 306 320 325 335 341 349
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New Residential Building Permits
Single Multi Single MultiArea Family Family Total Family Family Total YearClovis 39 0 39 4,260,524 0 4,260,524 2000Clovis 55 25 80 6,021,410 1,182,693 7,204,103 2001Clovis 85 45 130 10,512,675 1,087,778 11,600,453 2002Clovis 93 56 149 15,151,448 2,641,503 17,792,951 2003Clovis 184 97 281 27,999,787 6,364,987 34,364,774 2004Clovis 157 4 161 24,400,100 117,408 24,517,508 2005Clovis 147 104 251 32,593,919 10,198,621 42,792,540 2006Clovis 98 55 153 20,569,281 5,873,201 26,442,482 2007
Number of Units Value
Table 27: Curry County new residential permits (Clovis, 2009).
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CHAPTER V
DISCUSSION The purpose of this research was to economically quantify the impacts placed on
smaller communities by tornadic wind damage. Research was conducted to help answer
some of the questions that remain when it comes to small towns and their resiliency to
disasters. After all, it is these communities that are the in the path of these violent storms
year after year. Yet, only 1% of all disasters become disaster declared, making funds
available that maybe would help the community not only recover from the event but
perhaps give it the boost it needs to get back towards positive growth.
Investigation in the immediate aftermath of the tornado strike in both Tulia and
Clovis yielded some interesting results. Infrastructure such as power or water services
did not play a role in business disruption as power was restored quickly in both cases.
The people in the community came together along with many others from surrounding
communities to help in the cleanup process. Debris was cleared within the week. Tulia,
which sustained the more severe business loss, noted an average business disruption of
about seven days except for essential services like Automotive Repair & Maintenance
who were busy fixing flats for response vehicles. Small communities only have a
handful of businesses that provide these services so when a disaster such as this takes
place, business picks up. Young & Ellis saw a 150% increase in business. In Clovis,
business interruption was minimal except for the businesses that were totaled.
Businesses that sustained damaged were able to repair the damage and clear debris the
following day. In both cases, businesses whose structures were condemned relocated to
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different locations to run business. The exception was Mainline Bowl in Clovis that
closed down for nine months in rebuild a newer, modern bowling alley. Bar W Ford in
Tulia suffered a major loss but was still able to perform automotive repair, running at
only 20% capacity. Those businesses that sustained major damage not only to the
structure but inventory as well, took longer to recover, between two to nine months.
Economic impact analysis and historical and current economy analysis was
performed to obtain a clearer picture of industry sectors that thrive and those that suffer.
A summary of the two cases is given below in Table 28 and Table 29.
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Table 28: Summary of impacts for Swisher County, Texas.
Impact Temporary Job Loss Permanent Job Loss
Output $207,143 $1,073,809
Employment 0.7 jobs 22 jobs
Household Income $17,305 $377,810
Indirect Business Tax $5,624 $126,894
Impact % Change
Population 3.8% Unemployment -0.1% Poverty Rate -1.6% Property Values 8.9% Property Values Per Capita 9.6
Taxable Sales -2.5% (Tulia -
5.0%) State Expenditures 20% Ag Values 92.6% Employment by Industry
Transportation and Warehousing -36.7%
Construction -20%
Natural Resources and Mining -7.7%
Retail Trade -7.7% Wholesale Trade -0.8% Government -0.1%
Education and Health Services 0%
Manufacturing 0.7%
Leisure and Hospitality 3.5% Other Services 5.1% Financial Activities 9.3%
Professional and Business Services 11.1%
Information - Unclassified - Utilities - Total -2.80%
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Table 29: Summary of Impact for Curry County, NM.
Impact Temporary Job Loss Output $102,504 Employment 0.8 jobs Household Income $16,873 Indirect Business Tax $3,301
Impact % Change Population 2.9% Unemployment -0.7% Median Household Income 6.3% Housing Permits -39.0% Housing Units 1.2% Ag Values 49.0% Employment by Industry Information -18.14 Arts, Ent, & Recreation -14.77 Transp. & Warehousing -12.86 Manufacturing -6.65 Finance & Insurance -5.95
Accommodation & Food Services -2.97
Construction -2.37
Real Estate & Rental & Leasing -1.95
Other Services, ex Public Administration -1.77
Utilities -1.25 Unclassified 0.00 Retail Trade 3.98 Wholesale Trade 15.60
Administrative & Waste Services 21.62
Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing, & Hunting n/a
Mining n/a
Professional & Technical Services n/a
Management of Companies & Ent. n/a
Educational Services n/a Health Care & Social n/a Grand Total 1.54
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Comparison of Results
The EIA for both cases revealed similar Employment, Household Income, and
Indirect Business Tax impacts due to temporary job loss while the output impact was
twice as large for Swisher County. Both counties would only lose one job and encounter
an estimated $3,000 to $5,000 impact to Indirect Business Tax. Tulia is a smaller
community and since output multipliers are those changes to final demand by one
industry to total changes in output (dollar value of a good or service produced or sold) by
all the other industries in the local area, businesses in smaller communities rely heavily
on each other. Additionally, permanent job loss impacts estimated by the EIA show
significant immediate impact to Swisher County, spiking unemployment by nearly 36%
and a loss of 22 jobs. Swisher County had an estimated $1,000,000 in output impact due
to the decision of Alco not to rebuild.
Swisher County overall saw an increase in population and a decline in
unemployment rates and poverty rates. Property values and property values per capital
increased. Taxable sales were down by 2.5% but state expenditures for the county went
up 20%. Agriculture values went up 92.6%. Employment by industry shows the major
industries negatively affected included Transportation and Warehousing, Construction,
Natural Resources and Mining, and Retail Trade. Wholesale Trade, Government,
Education and Health Services and Manufacturing remained fairly even. Leisure and
Hospitality, Other services, Financial Activities, and Professional Business Services were
industry sectors that saw a positive impact.
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Curry County saw an increase in population and a decline in unemployment as
well. Median household income increased but housing permits declined nearly 40%.
Housing units increased only 1.2% and agriculture values increased 49%. Employment
by industry shows the main major industries negatively affected included Information,
Arts, Entertainment, & Recreation, Transportation & Warehousing, Manufacturing,
Finance & Insurance. Administrative & Waste Services, Wholesale Trade, and Retail
Trade were industry sectors that saw a positive impact.
So how do the impacts on rural communities differ from urban areas? Studies by
Ewing et al. (2005a) investigated the regional labor market effect induced by tornadoes in
Nashville, TN, Oklahoma City, OK, and Fort Worth. Although much larger
communities, findings showed that employment growth rates for Nashville and
Oklahoma City remained unchanged while Fort Worth did experience a reduction in
employment growth. Here in both cases, unemployment rates decreased. In Oklahoma
City a positive long run impact in the construction sector appeared. Other studies have
had similar results with manufacturing and construction companies often show gains
following a disaster and employment growth in these sectors (Durkin, 1984; Kroll et al.,
1990; Webb, Tierney, and Dahlhamer, 2000). Employment in the construction sector
was down 20% in Swisher County and down 2.3 in Curry County.
Questions have been asked as whether these smaller communities undergo an
economic boom after a disaster or do they slowly recover to pre-tornado conditions.
Mileti, 1999; Gordon et al., 2005; Okuyama, 2000; Ewing and Kruse, 2002; Skidmore
and Toya, 2002 all showed a positive impact on community growth as the recovery
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process is a chance to rebuild better facilities and infrastructure or enhance organization
and mitigation strategies. The town of Siren, a small town hit by a tornado in Wisconsin,
has rebuilt their buildings with architecture reflecting its history. They have also geared
more industry towards tourism, becoming a popular destination for fishing, hunting, and
getaways (Homm et al., 2003). Other towns struggle to recover, such as was the case in
Stroud, OK. As discussed in Chapter 3, Tulia was struggling pre-tornado and had seen a
decline in population and new development. Impact analysis, as discussed above,
suggest that after the immediate impact Tulia has begun to see a positive effect from the
disaster. The tornado hit many abandoned buildings, houses, and mobile homes. Over
$190,000 from the Office of Rural Community Affairs provided the match for Swisher
County to conduct debris removal. The community was able to use these funds to clear
out areas that had needed to be demolished pre-tornado and allow space for new
development. A Family Dollar opened in Tulia on May of 2008. Other new construction
in Tulia has included new wrecker services, new manufacturing, farming, and the county
will begin wind development. Additionally $59,000 in federal funds was given to the
community to install three outdoor warning sirens to the eight already available in the
community. Cactus, who also was included in the disaster declaration with Swisher
County, obtained money for a community shelter.
Clovis has struggled but yet as discussed in the impact analysis, local economy
remained fairly unchanged although different sectors did react differently. Consolidated
Federal Funds for 2007 for both Swisher County and Curry County are attached as
Appendix C and D respectively. Curry County received over $1.8 million in Physical
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Disaster Loans, another $1.8 million in Small Disaster Loans, $235,660 in Emergency
Shelter Grants, $15,199 in Crop Disaster, and $18,805 in Emergency Food and Shelter.
The City of Clovis indicated that additional funds were needed for recovery, yet federal
officials felt the extent of the damage was not beyond the capability of the city or state
and thus offered limited amounts. A more extensive economic impact analysis could
have yielded more federal aid in this case. Swisher County received $436,300 in
Physical Disaster Loans, $223,610 in Emergency Loans, and $43,667 in Crop Disaster.
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CHAPTER VI
CONCLUSIONS AND FUTURE WORK
The research conducted focuses on the impact placed on the relatively small
communities of Tulia, Texas and Clovis, New Mexico following a tornadic event.
Research was predicated on a multidisciplinary approach to better understand how these
tornadoes affected these communities. In particular, elements from the disciplines of
Economics, Atmospheric Science, Geospatial Information Systems, and Emergency
Management were utilized. Collection, compilation and documentation of engineering,
atmospheric, and economic data could have implications for a rapid response economic
impact analysis to better understand the overall impacts involved in the event of a tornado
for small rural communities. It is in the understanding of the overall impacts, both in
direct damages and consequential economic loss, that these jurisdictions can properly
account for damages which are often missed in traditional methods. This may increase
the probability of a presidential declaration and availability of federal assistance. Unlike
larger communities who may find it relatively easier to meet the threshold of damage for
declaration status without including additional economic impacts, smaller communities
need to account for the entire impact. The amount of assistance an area may receive is a
positive function of the reported amount of damage so accounting for total impacts is
vital. Official labor market and economic statistics like those from the Bureau of
Economic Analysis, Census Bureau, and the Bureau of Labor Statistics have a relatively
larger measurement error associated with them for smaller populated counties than those
with more population. Obtaining primary data directly from the businesses and or local
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officials improves reliability and thus adds to the value of this research. Additionally,
smaller communities as a whole or specific impacted sector may have more of a regional
impact unlike larger communities. Businesses may be net importer of goods and services
or net exporters as was the case of the Grande Vida Dairy which sold most of its product
to those in other areas. If the sector hit were a net exporter, then the regional multiplier
effect would be larger and the damage impact greater than if the business were not an
exporter.
Results determined by the study here can be generalized to other communities.
Damage assessments by atmospheric and engineering teams can yield a tornado footprint
that can be overlaid with community GIS or other widely and freely available mapping
programs. Using a series of queries, specific businesses affected can be determined by
the impacted jurisdiction. Although the total or “real” economic impact will likely be
greater than reported insured losses (as the IMPLAN results show the increase in
damages is above and beyond standard valuation methods), a quick classification of
associated sector to each business affected can help to rapidly identify the extent of
temporary versus longer term (or permanent) damage impacts. Results in this study
showed that when businesses are hit by a tornado, some experience the phenomenon
know as “demand surge”. This included auto repair shops and service firms such as
insurance agents. Others can continue to operate or recover operations quickly by
changing locations such as operating out of their homes or makeshift buildings.
However, establishments in sectors such as manufacturing/dairy/retail sustain longer
lasting periods of business interruption as was determined by survey responses.
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Ultimately, a more complete understanding of the impacts by tornadic activity on
small rural communties could lead to more complete loss-estimation tools. HAZUS-MH,
which is a common risk assessment tool used for analyzing potential physical and
economic losses from events such as floods, hurricane winds, and earthquakes does not
currently calculate loss induced by tornadic activity. Estimating losses is important to
decision makers at the national, state, and local levels of government because they
provide a basis for developing emergency preparedness, mitigation plans and policies,
and planning for response and recovery. Additionally, other decision support systems
that include a deeper understanding of tornado impacts can facilitate management by
automatically analyzing information from digital databases such as building inventories,
infrastructure, demographics, and risk. By understanding the impacts placed on the small
communities, more accurate economic estimates would be available to Federal and State
officials who must decide the amount of funds to disperse to a community suffering from
a disastrous event. Furthermore, local officials will be able to determine where to
allocate these funds in a way that would be more economically feasible, paving the way
towards a faster recovery.
It is in recovery itself and planning for recovery, where jurisdictions can build
more resilient communities to minimize disaster impacts before or in the event of another
strike. Knowing which population and economic sectors will have the most difficulty
recovering from the disaster, determining and planning for recovery demands, and having
procedures in place that address for essential tasks, can expedite the recovery process and
provide for a more efficient response and recovery. Jurisdictions should know their
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community and determine which industries are vital and should receive immediate
attention in the disaster aftermath so that they can stimulate local investment and
consumption and speed recovery to other industries. Prior contact with agencies
responsible for damage assessment, debris removal, rezoning, service restoration, and
permit processing can be done prior to a disaster. More importantly, the recovery process
is a unique time to enact polices for hazard mitigation. Small communities can use
economic impact analysis to determine mitigation planning and put procedures in place in
sectors that receive the most damage and may take longer to recover in order to minimize
future ripple effects throughout the community. Preemptive research and planning
should be conducted to determine vulnerabilities within the community including better
construction methods and construction materials or rezoning possibilities. A community
that performs pre-disaster planning for post-disaster recovery will build a disaster
resilient community.
.
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Clower, T. 2006. Economic applications in disaster research, mitigation, and planning. Chapter 18 in Disciplines, disasters and emergency management textbook. Arlington, Center for Economic Development and Research at the University of North Texas. Clovis, cited 2009: Bureau of Business & Economic Research [Available online at: http://bber.unm.edu/bber_data.html ] Cochrane, H. 2004. Economic loss: Myth and measurement. Disaster Prevention and Management 13(4): 290-96. Cochrane, H. 1997. Predicting the economic impact of a Midwest earthquake. In Economic Consequences of Earthquakes: Preparing for the Unexpected. New York: National Center for Earthquake Engineering Research. Cross, J. M. 2001. Megacities and small towns: different perspectives on hazard vulnerability. Global Environmental Change, Part B: Environmental Hazards. 3(2): 63-80. De Silva, D. G., et al. 2006. Catastrophe induced destruction and reconstruction. Natural Hazards Review 7(1): 19-25. De Silva, D. G., et al. 2005. Fujita scale and dollar losses: Evidence from the May 1999 Oklahoma City Tornado. Chapter 2 of Economics and the Wind. New York: Nova Science Publishers, Inc. Ewing, B. T. and J. B. Kruse. 2002. The impact of Project Impact on the Wilmington, North Carolina labor market. Public Finance Review 30: 296-309. Ewing, B. T. and J. B. Kruse. 2001. Hurricane Bertha and unemployment: a case study of Wilmington, NC. Proceedings of the Americas Conference on Wind Engineering. Ewing, B. T., et al. 2006. The response of insurer stock prices to natural hazards. Weather and Forecasting 21(3): 395-407. Ewing, B. T., et al. 2005a. Analysis of local labor market responses to tornadoes. Chapter 3 of Economics and the Wind. New York: Nova Science Publishers, Inc. Ewing, B. T., et al. 2005b. Transmission of labor market shocks across regions: evidence from the May 3, 1999 Oklahoma City Tornado. Prepared for U.S. Department of Commerce, National Institute of Standards and Technology. Ewing, B. T. et al. 2005c. An empirical examination of the Corpus Christi unemployment rate and Hurricane Bret. Natural Hazards Review 6(4): 191-196.
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Ewing, B. T., J. Kruse and D. Sutter, “Hurricanes and Economic Research: An Introduction to the Hurricane Katrina Symposium,” Southern Economic Journal, Volume 74, Number 2, 2007, pp. 315-325. Ewing, B. T., J. Kruse and D. Sutter (2009 in press) “An Overview of Hurricane Katrina and Economic Loss,” Journal of Business Valuation and Economic Loss Analysis, Volume 4, Issue 2. FEMA, cited 2009. Federal Aid Programs for Texas Disaster Recovery. [ Available online at: http://www.fema.gov/news/newsrelease.fema?id=35892 ] Freeman, P., et al. 2003. Dealing with increased risk of natural disasters: challenges and options. IMF Working Paper No. 03/197. Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund. Gillespie, W. 1991. Economic impact of Hurricane Hugo. Internal Re., Budget and Control Board, Office of Economic Research, Columbia, S.C. Gordon, P. and H.W. Richardson. 1996. The business interruption effects of the Northridge Earthquake. Lusk Center Research Institute, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA. Gordon, P. et al. 2005. The economic impact of a terrorist attack on the Twin Ports of Los Angeles-Long Beach. A report by the Center for Risk and Economic Analysis of Terrorism Events. Los Angeles: University of Southern California. Grazulis, T. P., 1993. Significant Tornadoes: 1680-1991. Environmental Films, 1326 pp. Guha, S., et al. 2004. Thirty years of natural disasters 1974-2003: The numbers. Presses Universitaires de Louvain: Louvain-la Neuve, ID n202. Guimaraes, P. et al. 1993. Wealth and income effects of natural disasters: An economic analysis of Hurricane Hugo. Review of regional studies 23: 97-114. Homm, L. et al. 2003. Rebuilding after natural disaster: a targeted economic development approach. Journal of the community development society 34: 107-124. Kates, R. 1971. Natural Hazard in Human Ecological Perspective: Hypotheses and Models. Economic Geography 47: 438-51. LBB NWS, cited 2007: Tulia, TX Tornado. [Available online at http://www.srh.noaa.gov/lub/events/2007/20070421/tulia_damage.php]
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Mileti, D. 1999. Disasters by design: A reassessment of natural hazards in the United States. Washington, DC: Joseph Henry Press. Mulkey, D. and A. W. Hodges. 2000. Using IMPLAN to assess local economic impacts. Gainesville: University of Florida. Database on-line. Available from Extension FE168 http://edis.ifas.ufl.edu. NCTCOG, cited 2007: Tornado Damage Risk Assessment. [Available online at http://www.nctcog.org/weather/study/ ] NIMS, cited 2007: Homeland Security Presidential Directive/HSPD-5. [Available online at http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2003/02/20030228-9.html ] NISAC, cited 2007: Analysis of hypothetical hurricane scenarios for 2006. [Available online at http://www.emat-tx.org/2006_hurricane_scenarios.ppt ] NOAA, cited 2006: NOAA reviews record-setting 2005 Atlantic hurricane season. [Available online at http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2005/s2540.htm ] Okuyama, Y. 2003. Economics of natural disasters: A critical review. In 50th North American Meeting, Regional Science Association International in Philadelphia, PA, November 20-22, 2003. Okuyama, Y. et al. 1999. Economic impacts of an unscheduled, disruptive event: a Miyazawa multiplier analysis. Understanding and Interpreting Economic Structure. Berlin: Springer. PRPC, cited 2009: Swisher County demographics. [Available online at http://www.prpc.cog.tx.us/demographics/swisher.htm ] Rae, S. and J. Stefkovich. 2000. The tornado damage risk assessment predicting the impact of a big outbreak in Dallas-Fort Worth, Texas. Extended Abstracts, 20th Conference on Severe Local Storms. Orlando: American Meteorological Society. Romer, D. 1996. Advanced macroeconomics. New York, NY: McGraw-Hill. Rose, A. 2004. Defining and measuring economic resilience to disasters. Disaster Prevention and Management 13(4): 307-14. Rose, A. 2004. Economic principles, issues and research priorities in hazard loss estimation. Chapter 2 of Modeling spatial and economic impacts of disasters. Berlin: Springer.
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Rose, A. and S-Y. Liao. 2005. Modeling regional economic resilience to disasters: a computable general equilibrium analysis of water service disruptions. Journal of Regional Science 45: 437-458. Rose, A. and G. S. Guha. 2004. Computable general equilibrium modeling of electric utility lifeline losses from earthquakes. Chapter 7 of Modeling spatial and economic impacts of disasters. Berlin: Springer. Rose, A. and J. Benavides. 1998. Regional economic impacts. In engineering and socioeconomic impacts of earthquakes. New York: Multidisciplinary Center for Earthquake Engineering Research. Rose, A., et al. 1997. The regional economic impact of an earthquake: Direct and indirect effects of electricity lifeline disruptions. Journal of Regional Science 37: 437–58. Skidmore, M. and H. Toya. 2002. Do natural disasters promote long-run growth? Economic Inquiry 40: 664-687. Simmons, Kevin M., and Daniel Sutter. 2005. “WSR-88D Radar, Tornado Warnings, and Tornado Casualties.” Weather and Forecasting, 20(3):301-310. SPC Clovis, cited 2007: Storm Reports for 032307. [Available online at: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/070323_rpts.html] SPC Tulia, cited 2007: Storm Reports for 042107. [Available online at: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/070421_rpts.html] Storm Stats, cited 2007. 2007 tornado fatality information. [Available online at: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/torn/2007deadlytorn.html ] Texas Edge Data Center, cited 2009. Texas Economic Data for Growth and Expansion (EDGE) Data Center. [Available online at: https://fmx.cpa.state.tx.us/businessobjects/enterprise115/desktoplaunch/InfoView/logon/logon.do ] Texas Governor’s Division of Emergency Management (GDEM). 2006. Disaster Recovery Manual. ftp://ftp.txdps.state.tx.us/dem/recovery/recoverymanual0606.pdf. Tierney, K. 1997. Impacts of recent disasters on businesses: The 1993 Midwest Floods and the 1994 Northridge Earthquake. In Economic Consequences of Earthquakes: Preparing for the Unexpected. New York: National Center for Earthquake Engineering Research.
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APPENDIX A: SWISHER COUNTY IMPLAN OUTPUT Table A- 1: Output Multipliers - Swisher County.
Output Multipliers July 8, 2008
# Description Direct Effects
Indirect Effects
Induced Effects
TotalType I
Multiplier
Type II Multiplie
r
18
Agriculture and forestry support activities
1 0.04497 0.174204 1.219 1.044968 1.219173
19 Oil and gas extraction 1 0.21926 0.066117 1.285 1.219262 1.28538
30 Power generation and supply
1 0.09035 0.052625 1.143 1.090348 1.142973
31 Natural gas distribution
1 0.81643 0.059877 1.876 1.816432 1.876309
401 Motor vehicle and parts dealers
1 0.12402 0.109304 1.233 1.124016 1.233319
407 Gasoline stations 1 0.11076 0.074097 1.185 1.110761 1.184857
410 General merchandise stores
1 0.16422 0.094212 1.258 1.164223 1.258435
411 Miscellaneous store retailers
1 0.08744 0.125837 1.213 1.087436 1.213274
422 Telecommunications 1 0.23651 0.047557 1.284 1.236507 1.284063
428
Insurance agencies- brokerages- and related
1 0.06902 0.090171 1.159 1.069023 1.159195
431 Real estate 1 0.14397 0.045098 1.189 1.143966 1.189064
449 Veterinary services 1 0.10403 0.066643 1.171 1.104032 1.170675
458 Services to buildings and dwellings
1 0.08557 0.123949 1.21 1.085565 1.209514
481 Food services and drinking places
1 0.20813 0.073735 1.282 1.208131 1.281866
483
Automotive repair and maintenance- except car
1 0.11293 0.073846 1.187 1.112932 1.186778
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Table A- 2: Employment Multipliers - Swisher County.
Employment Multipliers July 8, 2008
# Description Direct Effects
Indirect Effects
Induced Effects
TotalType I
Multiplier Type II
Multiplier
18
Agriculture and forestry support activities
38.2708 0.39502 1.657477 40.32 1.010322 1.053631
19 Oil and gas extraction 1.12584 0.42834 0.629076 2.183 1.380456 1.939216
30 Power generation and supply
2.97666 0.24678 0.500706 3.724 1.082904 1.251115
31 Natural gas distribution
5.83101 1.10263 0.569703 7.503 1.189097 1.286799
401 Motor vehicle and parts dealers
12.0879 1.0446 1.039975 14.17 1.086417 1.172451
407 Gasoline stations 12.6124 0.93295 0.704996 14.25 1.073971 1.129868
410 General merchandise stores
23.4387 1.38326 0.896381 25.72 1.059016 1.09726
411 Miscellaneous store retailers
39.4296 0.73647 1.197288 41.36 1.018678 1.049043
422 Telecommunications 3.99659 1.37223 0.45248 5.821 1.343351 1.456568
428
Insurance agencies- brokerages- and related
26.104 1.3025 0.85794 28.26 1.049897 1.082763
431 Real estate 6.56051 1.08422 0.429085 8.074 1.165264 1.230668
449 Veterinary services 18.5497 0.97392 0.634078 20.16 1.052503 1.086686
458 Services to buildings and dwellings
10.0364 0.91372 1.179324 12.13 1.09104 1.208545
481 Food services and drinking places
23.7549 1.4943 0.701557 25.95 1.062905 1.092438
483
Automotive repair and maintenance- except car
15.3275 1.10327 0.70261 17.13 1.07198 1.11782
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Table A- 3: Labor Income Multipliers - Swisher County.
Labor Income Multipliers July 8, 2008
# Description Direct Effects
Indirect Effects
Induced Effects
Total Type I
Multiplier Type II
Multiplier
18
Agriculture and forestry support activities
0.76378 0.01539 0.039552 0.819 1.020146 1.07193
19 Oil and gas extraction 0.241 0.05472 0.015011 0.311 1.227051 1.289339
30 Power generation and supply
0.21171 0.02367 0.011948 0.247 1.111815 1.168252
31 Natural gas distribution
0.06905 0.19876 0.013595 0.281 3.878653 4.07554
401 Motor vehicle and parts dealers
0.4554 0.03349 0.024816 0.514 1.073529 1.128024
407 Gasoline stations 0.30151 0.02991 0.016823 0.348 1.099189 1.154986
410 General merchandise stores
0.37704 0.04434 0.02139 0.443 1.117604 1.174336
411 Miscellaneous store retailers
0.53922 0.02361 0.02857 0.591 1.043782 1.096766
422 Telecommunications 0.16286 0.04985 0.010797 0.224 1.306071 1.37237
428
Insurance agencies- brokerages- and related
0.38027 0.02304 0.020473 0.424 1.060592 1.114429
431 Real estate 0.16231 0.0394 0.010239 0.212 1.242776 1.305861
449 Veterinary services 0.2667 0.03138 0.015131 0.313 1.117655 1.174389
458 Services to buildings and dwellings
0.52142 0.03297 0.028142 0.583 1.063235 1.117206
481 Food services and drinking places
0.28552 0.04428 0.016741 0.347 1.155068 1.213701
483
Automotive repair and maintenance- except car
0.29869 0.0316 0.016766 0.347 1.105794 1.161925
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APPENDIX B: CURRY COUNTY IMPLAN OUTPUT Table B- 1: Output Multipliers - Curry County.
Output Multipliers August 30, 2008
# Description Direct Effects
Indirect Effects
Induced Effects
TotalType I
Multiplier Type II
Multiplier
11 Cattle ranching and farming 1 0.74451 0.086932 1.831 1.744507 1.831439
400 Warehousing and storage 1 0.11347 0.253825 1.367 1.113474 1.367299
401 Motor vehicle and parts dealers 1 0.12354 0.219724 1.343 1.123536 1.34326
405 Food and beverage stores 1 0.12326 0.216114 1.339 1.123262 1.339376
432
Automotive equipment rental and leasing 1 0.31771 0.131888 1.45 1.31771 1.449598
477 Bowling centers 1 0.2979 0.167855 1.466 1.297901 1.465756
503 State & Local Education 1 0 0.423272 1.423 1 1.423272
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Table B- 2: Employer Multipliers - Curry County.
Employer Multipliers August 30, 2008
# Description Direct Effects
Indirect Effects
Induced Effects
TotalType I
Multiplier Type II
Multiplier
11 Cattle ranching and farming
5.07827 5.79043 1.218513 12.09 2.140238 2.380184
400 Warehousing and storage
13.1725 1.36557 3.557837 18.1 1.103668 1.373764
401 Motor vehicle and parts dealers
13.4574 1.5447 3.079849 18.08 1.114785 1.343645
405 Food and beverage stores
22.5947 1.54128 3.029252 27.17 1.068214 1.202283
432
Automotive equipment rental and leasing
7.76391 4.53474 1.848661 14.15 1.58408 1.822189
477 Bowling centers 34.6987 3.72659 2.352809 40.78 1.107399 1.175205
503 State & Local Education
25.6549 0 5.932961 31.59 1 1.231261
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Table B- 3: Labor Income Multipliers - Curry County.
Labor Income Multipliers August 30, 2008
# Description Direct Effects
Indirect Effects
Induced Effects
TotalType I
Multiplier Type II
Multiplier
11 Cattle ranching and farming
0.00878 0.1966 0.027427 0.233 23.394918 26.519108
400 Warehousing and storage
0.56567 0.034 0.080081 0.68 1.060106 1.201674
401 Motor vehicle and parts dealers
0.47397 0.04514 0.069322 0.588 1.095238 1.241497
405 Food and beverage stores
0.46554 0.04504 0.068184 0.579 1.096747 1.243208
432
Automotive equipment rental and leasing
0.20112 0.11047 0.04161 0.353 1.549252 1.756141
477 Bowling centers 0.2992 0.09737 0.052958 0.45 1.325415 1.502413
503 State & Local Education
1 0 0.133541 1.134 1 1.133541
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APPENDIX C: SWISHER COUNTY CONSOLIDATED FEDERAL FUNDS REPORT Table C- 1: Swisher County Consolidated Federal Funds Report 2007 (Grants, 2009). SUMMARY TOTALS FY 2007 AMOUNT DIRECT EXPENDITURES OR OBLIGATIONS RETIREMENT / DISABILITY
PAYMENTS FOR INDIVIDUALS (DR) 21,080,423
OTHER DIRECT PAYMENTS FOR INDIVIDUALS (DO) 14,487,513
DIRECT PAYMENTS OTHER THAN FOR INDIVIDUALS (DX) 24,921,985
GRANTS (BLOCK, FORMULA, PROJECT, AND COOPERATIVE AGREEMENTS) (GG) 8,619,926
PROCUREMENT CONTRACTS (PC) 323,702
SALARIES AND WAGES (SW) 1,722,223 TOTAL DIRECT EXPENDITURES
OR OBLIGATIONS 71,155,772 EXHIBIT TOTAL DIRECT EXPENDITURES
OR OBLIGATIONS - DEFENSE 332,000 TOTAL DIRECT EXPENDITURES
OR OBLIGATIONS - NON DEFENSE 70,823,772
OTHER FEDERAL ASSISTANCE DIRECT LOANS (DL) 2,481,170 GUARANTEED/INSURED LOANS
(GL) 2,165,954 INSURANCE (II) 28,663,464
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Retirement & Disability Payments for Individuals (DR)
PROGRAM PROGRAM NAME FY 2007
AMOUNT 17.FEC FEDERAL EMPLOYEES
COMPENSATION 16,933 57.001 SOCIAL INSURANCE FOR
RAILROAD WORKERS 156,789 64.102 COMPENSATION FOR SERVICE-
CONNECTED DEATHS FOR VETERANS' DEPENDENTS 1,089
64.104 PENSION FOR NON-SERVICE-CONNECTED DISABILITY FOR VETERANS 142,244
64.105 PENSION TO VETERANS SURVIVING SPOUSES AND CHILDREN 2,060
64.109 VETERANS COMPENSATION FOR SERVICE-CONNECTED DISABILITY 856,369
64.11 VETERANS DEPENDENCY & INDEMNITY COMPENSATION FOR SVC-CONNECTED DEATH 103,081
96.001 SOCIAL SECURITY DISABILITY INSURANCE 1,924,655
96.002 SOCIAL SECURITY RETIREMENT INSURANCE 11,463,328
96.004 SOCIAL SECURITY SURVIVORS INSURANCE 4,805,264
96.006 SUPPLEMENTAL SECURITY INCOME 515,075
DR.100 FEDERAL RETIREMENT AND DISABILITY PAYMENTS--MILITARY 332,000
DR.200 FEDERAL RETIREMENT AND DISABILITY PAYMENTS--CIVILIAN 761,536
Retirement & Disability Payments for Individuals Total: 21,080,423
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Other Direct Payments for Individuals (DO)
PROGRAM PROGRAM NAME FY 2007
AMOUNT 10.551 FOOD STAMPS 1,176,913 14.197 MULTIFAMILY ASSISTED
HOUSING REFORM AND AFFORDABILITY ACT 176,513
64.1 AUTOMOBILES AND ADAPTIVE EQUIPMENT FOR CERTAIN DISABLED VETERANS 4,515
64.117 SURVIVORS AND DEPENDENTS EDUCATIONAL ASSISTANCE 1,472
64.124 ALL VOLUNTEER FORCE EDUCATIONAL ASSISTANCE 17,773
84.032 FEDERAL FAMILY EDUCATION LOANS 207,415
93.773 MEDICARE-HOSPITAL INSURANCE 7,083,689
93.774 MEDICARE-SUPPLEMENTARY MEDICAL INSURANCE 5,819,223
Other Direct Payments for Individuals Total: 14,487,513 Direct Payments Other than for Individuals (DX)
PROGRAM PROGRAM NAME FY 2007
AMOUNT 10.051 COMMODITY LOANS AND LOAN
DEFICIENCY PAYMENTS 318,367 10.055 PRODUCTION FLEXIBILITY
PAYMENTS FOR CONTRACT COMMODITIES 12,838,205
10.069 CONSERVATION RESERVE PROGRAM 4,523,769
10.45 CROP INSURANCE 6,879,586 10.918 GROUND & SURFACE WATER
CONSERVATION ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY INCENTIVES PROGR 153,930
14.195 SECTION 8 HOUSING ASSISTANCE PAYMENTS PROGRAM-SPECIAL 99,798
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ALLOCATIONS
14.85 PUBLIC AND INDIAN HOUSING 108,132 DX.100 U.S. POSTAL SERVICE--OTHER
EXPENDITURES (NON-SALARY/NON-PROCUREMENT) 198
Direct Payments Other than for Individuals Total: 24,921,985 Grants (Block, Formula, Project, and Cooperative Agreements) (GG)
PROGRAM PROGRAM NAME FY 2007
AMOUNT 10.073 CROP DISASTER PROGRAM 43,667 10.555 NATIONAL SCHOOL LUNCH
PROGRAM 860,927 14.191 MULTIFAMILY HOUSING
SERVICE COORDINATORS 36,366 14.871 SECTION 8 HOUSING CHOICE
VOUCHERS 140,420 14.872 PUBLIC HOUSING CAPITAL
FUNDS 76,764 20.205 HIGHWAY PLANNING AND
CONSTRUCTION 38,058 84.01 TITLE I GRANTS TO LOCAL
EDUCATION AGENCIES 315,622 84.358 RURAL EDUCATION
ACHIEVEMENT PROGRAM 31,940 93.558 TEMPORARY ASSISTANCE FOR
NEEDY FAMILIES 215,284 93.563 CHILD SUPPORT
ENFORCEMENT 85,423 93.568 LOW INCOME HOME ENERGY
ASSISTANCE 30,802 93.6 HEAD START 594,748 93.667 SOCIAL SERVICES BLOCK
GRANT 116,977
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93.767 STATE CHILDREN'S INSURANCE PROGRAM (CHIP) 191,450
93.769 DEMONSTRATION TO MAINTAIN INDEPENDENCE AND EMPLOYMENT 8,559
93.776 HURRICANE KATRINA RELIEF -43,821 93.777 STATE SURVEY AND
CERTIFICATION OF HEALTH CARE PROVIDERS AND SUPPLIERS 11,138
93.778 MEDICAL ASSISTANCE PROGRAM 5,665,629
93.786 STATE PHARMACEUTICAL ASSISTANCE PROGRAMS -165
93.959 BLOCK GRANTS FOR PREVENTION AND TREATMENT OF SUBSTANCE ABUSE 125,302
94.002 RETIRED AND SENIOR VOLUNTEER PROGRAM (RSVP) 74,836
Grants (Block, Formula, Project, and Cooperative Agreements) Total: 8,619,926 Procurement Contracts (PC)
PROGRAM PROGRAM NAME FY 2007
AMOUNT PC.200 PROCUREMENT CONTRACTS--
ALL FED GOVT AGENCIES OTHER THAN DEFENSE & USPS 9,510
PC.300 PROCUREMENT CONTRACTS--U.S. POSTAL SERVICE 314,192
Procurement Contracts Total: 323,702
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Salaries and Wages (SW)
PROGRAM PROGRAM NAME FY 2007
AMOUNT SW.500 SALARIES AND WAGES--ALL FED
GOVT CIVILIAN EMP EXCEPT DEFENSE & USPS 447,000
SW.600 SALARIES AND WAGES--U.S. POSTAL SERVICE 1,275,223
Salaries and Wages Total: 1,722,223 Direct Loans (DL)
PROGRAM PROGRAM NAME FY 2007
AMOUNT 10.404 EMERGENCY LOANS 223,610 10.406 FARM OPERATING LOANS 1,613,260 10.407 FARM OWNERSHIP LOANS 208,000 59.008 PHYSICAL DISASTER LOANS 436,300
Direct Loans Total: 2,481,170 Guaranteed/Insured Loans (GL)
PROGRAM PROGRAM NAME FY 2007
AMOUNT 10.406 FARM OPERATING LOANS 1,274,724 14.117 MORTGAGE INSURANCE HOMES 782,555 64.114 VETERANS HOUSING
GUARANTEED AND INSURED LOANS 108,675
Guaranteed/Insured Loans Total: 2,165,954
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Insurance (II)
PROGRAM PROGRAM NAME FY 2007
AMOUNT 10.45 CROP INSURANCE 28,163,456 64.103 LIFE INSURANCE FOR
VETERANS 76,508 97.022 FLOOD INSURANCE 423,500
Insurance Total: 28,663,464
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APPENDIX D: CURRY COUNTY CONSOLIDATED FEDERAL FUNDS REPORT 2007
Table D- 1: Curry County Consolidated Federal Funds Report 2007 (Grants, 2009).
SUMMARY TOTALS FY 2007 AMOUNT
DIRECT EXPENDITURES OR OBLIGATIONS RETIREMENT / DISABILITY
PAYMENTS FOR INDIVIDUALS (DR) 134,340,438
OTHER DIRECT PAYMENTS FOR INDIVIDUALS (DO) 50,986,946
DIRECT PAYMENTS OTHER THAN FOR INDIVIDUALS (DX) 18,543,868
GRANTS (BLOCK, FORMULA, PROJECT, AND COOPERATIVE AGREEMENTS) (GG) 73,207,499
PROCUREMENT CONTRACTS (PC) 74,600,639 SALARIES AND WAGES (SW) 162,974,730 TOTAL DIRECT EXPENDITURES OR
OBLIGATIONS 514,654,120
EXHIBIT TOTAL DIRECT EXPENDITURES OR
OBLIGATIONS - DEFENSE 244,419,838
TOTAL DIRECT EXPENDITURES OR OBLIGATIONS - NON DEFENSE 270,234,282
OTHER FEDERAL ASSISTANCE DIRECT LOANS (DL) 1,838,000 GUARANTEED/INSURED LOANS (GL) 22,860,833 INSURANCE (II) 64,709,827
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Retirement & Disability Payments for Individuals (DR)
PROGRAM PROGRAM NAME FY 2007
AMOUNT
10.03 INDEMNITIES 755,085 17.307 COAL MINE WORKERS'
COMPENSATION 13,040 17.FEC FEDERAL EMPLOYEES
COMPENSATION 648,771 57.001
SOCIAL INSURANCE FOR RAILROAD WORKERS 11,719,533
57.AAA SOCIAL INSURANCE FOR RR WORKERS - UNEMPLOYMENT & SICKNESS BENEFITS 84,046
64.102 COMPENSATION FOR SERVICE-CONNECTED DEATHS FOR VETERANS' DEPENDENTS 1,124
64.104 PENSION FOR NON-SERVICE-CONNECTED DISABILITY FOR VETERANS 483,367
64.105 PENSION TO VETERANS SURVIVING SPOUSES AND CHILDREN 133,767
64.109 VETERANS COMPENSATION FOR SERVICE-CONNECTED DISABILITY 10,356,722
64.11 VETERANS DEPENDENCY & INDEMNITY COMPENSATION FOR SVC-CONNECTED DEATH 1,894,205
86.001 PENSION PLAN TERMINATION INSURANCE 34,650
96.001 SOCIAL SECURITY DISABILITY INSURANCE 15,015,877
96.002 SOCIAL SECURITY RETIREMENT INSURANCE 42,680,753
96.004 SOCIAL SECURITY SURVIVORS INSURANCE 16,973,446
96.006 SUPPLEMENTAL SECURITY INCOME 1,596,786 DR.100 FEDERAL RETIREMENT AND
DISABILITY PAYMENTS--MILITARY 20,508,000 DR.200 FEDERAL RETIREMENT AND
DISABILITY PAYMENTS--CIVILIAN 11,356,312
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DR.300 RETIREMENT AND DISABILITY PAYMENTS-COAST GUARD/UNIFORMED EMPLOYEES 23,601
DR.500 RETIREMENT AND DISABILITY PAYMENTS--FOREIGN SERVICE OFFICERS 15,812
DR.700 FEDERAL RETIREMENT AND DISABILITY PAYMENTS--PUBLIC HEALTH SERVICE 45,541
Retirement & Disability Payments for Individuals Total: 134,340,438
Other Direct Payments for Individuals (DO)
PROGRAM PROGRAM NAME FY 2007
AMOUNT
10.551 FOOD STAMPS 6,955,865 64.101 BURIAL EXPENSES ALLOWANCE FOR
VETERANS 2,012 64.116 VOCATIONAL REHABILITATION FOR
DISABLED VETERANS 24,101 64.117
SURVIVORS AND DEPENDENTS EDUCATIONAL ASSISTANCE 220,230
64.124 ALL VOLUNTEER FORCE EDUCATIONAL ASSISTANCE 1,322,980
84.007 FEDERAL SUPPLEMENTAL EDUCATIONAL OPPORTUNITY GRANTS 47,360
84.032 FEDERAL FAMILY EDUCATION LOANS 21,105
84.033
FEDERAL WORK STUDY PROGRAM 67,647 84.063
FEDERAL PELL GRANT PROGRAM 1,789,738
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93.773 MEDICARE-HOSPITAL INSURANCE 20,950,434 93.774
MEDICARE-SUPPLEMENTARY MEDICAL INSURANCE 19,585,474
Other Direct Payments for Individuals Total: 50,986,946
Direct Payments Other than for Individuals (DX)
PROGRAM PROGRAM NAME FY 2007
AMOUNT
10.051 COMMODITY LOANS AND LOAN DEFICIENCY PAYMENTS 69,754
10.055 PRODUCTION FLEXIBILITY PAYMENTS FOR CONTRACT COMMODITIES 6,669,821
10.069 CONSERVATION RESERVE PROGRAM 6,893,589
10.08 MILK INCOME LOSS CONTRACT PROGRAM 275,962
10.45 CROP INSURANCE 3,727,814 10.918
GROUND & SURFACE WATER CONSERVATION ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY INCENTIVES PROGR 67,236
14.157 SUPPORTIVE HOUSING FOR THE ELDERLY 160,602
14.181 SUPPORTIVE HOUSING FOR PERSONS WITH DISABILITIES 244,457
14.195 SECTION 8 HOUSING ASSISTANCE PAYMENTS PROGRAM-SPECIAL ALLOCATIONS 5,814
14.85 PUBLIC AND INDIAN HOUSING 427,728 DX.100
U.S. POSTAL SERVICE--OTHER EXPENDITURES (NON-SALARY/NON-PROCUREMENT) 1,091
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Direct Payments Other than for Individuals Total: 18,543,868 Grants (Block, Formula, Project, and Cooperative Agreements) (GG)
PROGRAM PROGRAM NAME FY 2007
AMOUNT
10.073 CROP DISASTER PROGRAM 15,199
10.555 NATIONAL SCHOOL LUNCH PROGRAM 2,493,903
10.557 SPECIAL SUPPLEMENTAL FOOD PROGRAM FOR WOMEN, INFANTS, AND CHILDREN 1,428,237
11.302 ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT-SUPPORT FOR PLANNING ORGANIZATIONS 150,000
14.231 EMERGENCY SHELTER GRANTS PROGRAM 235,660
14.25 RURAL HOUSING AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT 300,000
14.856 LOW INCOME HOUSING ASSISTANCE PROGRAM-SECTION 8 MODERATE REHABILITATION 2,000
14.87 RESIDENT OPPORTUNITY AND SUPPORTIVE SERVICES 40,000
14.871 SECTION 8 HOUSING CHOICE VOUCHERS 4,104,632
14.872 PUBLIC HOUSING CAPITAL FUNDS 240,098 16.606
STATE CRIMINAL ALIEN ASSISTANCE PROGRAM 36,672
16.71 PUBLIC SAFETY PARTNERSHIP AND COMMUNITY POLICING GRANTS -2,810
16.738 EDWARD BYRNE MEMORIAL JUSTICE ASSISTANCE GRANT PROGRAM 27,383
17.269 COMMUNITY BASED JOB TRAINING GRANTS 1,270,705
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20.106 AIRPORT IMPROVEMENT PROGRAM 266,583
20.205 HIGHWAY PLANNING AND CONSTRUCTION 1,032,652
84.01 TITLE I GRANTS TO LOCAL EDUCATION AGENCIES 1,881,478
84.031 HIGHER EDUCATION-INSTITUTIONAL AID 574,446
84.041 IMPACT AID 757,828 84.042
TRIO-STUDENT SUPPORT SERVICES 235,689 84.047 TRIO-UPWARD BOUND 250,000 84.126
REHABILITATION SERVICES-VOCATIONAL REHABILITATION GRANTS TO STATES 656,430
84.334 GAINING EARLY AWARENESS AND READINESS FOR UNDERGRADUATE PROGRAMS 468,000
84.335 CHILD CARE ACCESS MEANS PARENTS IN SCHOOL 35,174
84.358 RURAL EDUCATION ACHIEVEMENT PROGRAM 62,153
93.558 TEMPORARY ASSISTANCE FOR NEEDY FAMILIES 2,900,454
93.563 CHILD SUPPORT ENFORCEMENT 277,687 93.568 LOW INCOME HOME ENERGY
ASSISTANCE 325,643 93.767 STATE CHILDREN'S INSURANCE
PROGRAM (CHIP) 906,068 93.768
MEDICAID INFRASTR GRANTS TO SUPPORT THE COMPETIT EMPLOY OF PEOPLE W/ DISA 24,638
93.777 STATE SURVEY AND CERTIFICATION OF HEALTH CARE PROVIDERS AND SUPPLIERS 26,080
93.778 MEDICAL ASSISTANCE PROGRAM 52,021,509 93.959 BLOCK GRANTS FOR PREVENTION
AND TREATMENT OF SUBSTANCE ABUSE 73,291
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94.002 RETIRED AND SENIOR VOLUNTEER PROGRAM (RSVP) 18,041
94.011 FOSTER GRANDPARENT PROGRAM 53,171
97.024 EMERGENCY FOOD AND SHELTER NATIONAL BOARD PROGRAM 18,805
Grants (Block, Formula, Project, and Cooperative Agreements) Total: 73,207,499 Procurement Contracts (PC)
PROGRAM PROGRAM NAME FY 2007
AMOUNT
PC.100 PROCUREMENT CONTRACTS--DEPT OF DEFENSE 70,224,838
PC.200 PROCUREMENT CONTRACTS--ALL FED GOVT AGENCIES OTHER THAN DEFENSE & USPS 2,647,741
PC.300 PROCUREMENT CONTRACTS--U.S. POSTAL SERVICE 1,728,060
Procurement Contracts Total: 74,600,639 Salaries and Wages (SW)
PROGRAM PROGRAM NAME FY 2007
AMOUNT
SW.100 SALARIES AND WAGES--DEPT OF DEFENSE (ACTIVE MILITARY EMPLOYEES) 136,242,000
SW.200 SALARIES AND WAGES--DEPT OF DEFENSE (INACTIVE MILITARY EMPLOYEES) 691,000
SW.400 SALARIES AND WAGES--DEPT OF DEFENSE (CIVILIAN EMPLOYEES) 16,754,000
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SW.500
SALARIES AND WAGES--ALL FED GOVT CIVILIAN EMP EXCEPT DEFENSE & USPS 2,274,000
SW.600 SALARIES AND WAGES--U.S. POSTAL SERVICE 7,013,730
Salaries and Wages Total: 162,974,730 Direct Loans (DL)
PROGRAM PROGRAM NAME FY 2007
AMOUNT
10.406
FARM OPERATING LOANS 10,000 59.008
PHYSICAL DISASTER LOANS 1,828,000
Direct Loans Total: 1,838,000 Guaranteed/Insured Loans (GL)
PROGRAM PROGRAM NAME FY 2007
AMOUNT
10.406
FARM OPERATING LOANS 1,550,000 10.407
FARM OWNERSHIP LOANS 445,000 14.108
REHABILITATION MORTGAGE INSURANCE 100,684
14.117
MORTGAGE INSURANCE HOMES 10,592,308 59.012
SMALL BUSINESS LOANS 1,807,898 64.114
VETERANS HOUSING GUARANTEED AND INSURED LOANS 8,364,943
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Guaranteed / Insured Loans Total: 22,860,833 Insurance (II)
PROGRAM PROGRAM NAME FY 2007
AMOUNT
10.45 CROP INSURANCE 15,294,395 64.103
LIFE INSURANCE FOR VETERANS 162,054 97.022 FLOOD INSURANCE 49,253,378
Insurance Total:
64,709,827
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APPENDIX E: DISASTER DECLARATION PROCESS - A SUMMARY OF DEM-62 DISASTER RECOVERY MANUAL
DEM-63 Disaster Recovery Manual (GDEM, 2006) provides a step-by-step
approach to local jurisdictions requesting aid. Summarized here are the initial stages of
assessments and the different types of resources available. It is within these processes
where a quick economic impact analysis may be of benefit to the jurisdiction in order to
obtain disaster declaration status. Generally, a detailed assessment is less likely needed
in the wake of a catastrophic incident to qualify for State and/or Federal assistance. The
more marginal the event, the greater the need for a detailed assessment.
Assessments
In the immediate aftermath of a local disaster, it is up to the local emergency
management coordinator to begin the damage assessment process in order to determine
the impact and magnitude of the disaster, the resulting unmet needs of individuals,
businesses, and the public sector, and amount of assistance that is needed. A Rapid
Assessment or an initial size up of the affected areas is first completed. Information
included in this assessment focuses on humanitarian and emergency needs (i.e. life
safety – search and rescue, injuries and fatalities, mass care, hazardous material; life lines
– utilities and transportation systems; and critical facilities).
As emergency needs are met and debris is cleared, a Windshield Assessment is
performed where the main priority is assessing residential damage. The form used for the
Windshield Assessment for the state of Texas is included at the end of this appendix.
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Damage is categorized by the type of residential property (single, mobile, or multi-
family), the relative income of the residents (low, middle, or high), severity of the
damage (affected, minor, major, or destroyed), and the estimated insurance coverage (%).
Guidelines the state has set for estimating insurance coverage:
Renters are less likely to have insurance
Low-income residents are less likely to have insurance.
Homeowners who are still paying off their mortgage will normally have the
appropriate type of insurance.
The severity of the damage, whether classified under affected, minor, major, or
destroyed) is defined by the following:
Affected − If the living unit, porch, carport, garage, etc., was damaged but in the
inspector’s judgment the living unit is still habitable, the Affected category should
be used. A few shingles, some broken windows, damage to cars.
• Minor −Minor damage is when the home is damaged and uninhabitable, but may
be made habitable in a short period of time with home repairs. Any one of the
following may constitute minor damage:
o Can be repaired within 30 days
o Has less than 50% damage to structure
• Major − Major damage is when the home has sustained structural or significant
damages, is uninhabitable and requires extensive repairs. Any one of the
following may constitute major damage.
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o Substantial failures to structural elements of the residence (e.g., walls,
floors, foundation, roof)
o Has more than 50% damage to structure
o Damage that will take more than 30 days to repair
Destroyed − Destroyed is used when there is a total loss or damage to such an
extent that repairs are not economically feasible. Any one of the following may
constitute a status of destroyed: (Should be obvious)
o Structure is not economically feasible to repair
o Structure is permanently uninhabitable
o Complete failures to major components of structure (e.g., foundation,
walls, roof w/noticeable distortion of the walls)
o Unaffected structure that will require demolition as a result of the disaster
(e.g., floodplain)
Requesting Assistance
Upon completion of the damage assessment, the situation must be analyzed to
determine if assistance is actually needed. The following questions should be posed to
the County Judge/Mayor to determine if an effective response for the incident is beyond
the capabilities of the jurisdiction:
Is the damage primarily agricultural? If there is a need for agriculture assistance
only, the County Judge needs to obtain a Flash Situation Report from the local
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Farm Service Agency (FSA) and submit a letter of request for agricultural
assistance to the Governor.
Are uninsured damages and unmet needs of disaster victims beyond the capability
of the local government, the American Red Cross (ARC), The Salvation Army
(TSA), the Mennonite Disaster Service, and other local volunteer agencies?
Will the extent of damage to residential property require a significant and long-
term need for temporary housing?
Are there significant uninsured business losses? Have business losses created a
severe impact on jobs, production and/or revenue?
Does the jurisdiction’s budget have sufficient funds to make needed repairs to
Public Property? If not, can the jurisdiction re-prioritize non-disaster related
projects and use those funds to recover?
If assistance is deemed necessary, the County Judge/Mayor must submit:
A request letter to the Governor
A local State of Disaster Declaration
A Disaster Summary Outline (see outline document at the end of this appendix)
The state reviews the submitted items and determines whether a State and Federal
assessment will be required. If denied, the state will hear an appeal by the jurisdiction
only if new information is presented that helps the case. However, after the initial denial
of funds, the Small Business Administration (SBA) and the United States Department of
Agriculture (USDA) will not consider any appeals. If the request for assistance is
approved, the request is forwarded to the Federal Emergency Management Agency
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(FEMA), SBA, the USDA, or other state or federal agencies. A flow chart of the
Presidential Disaster Declaration Process is given in Figure E- 1 with the associated time
frame and information needed for the varying types of assistance in Table E- 2.
Similarly, Figure E- 2 and Figure E- 3 show the steps through the SBA declaration
process and USDA declaration process respectively. A least 25 homes and/or businesses
must have sustained uninsured losses of at least 40% of their replacement value or at least
3 business have sustained uninsured losses of at least 40% of their replacement value and
as a direct result of the disaster, at least 25% of the workforce in the community would be
unemployed for at least 90 days for a jurisdiction to qualify for SBA assistance.
Figure E- 1: Presidential Declaration Process (GDEM, 2006).
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Table E- 2: Types of Resources (GDEM, 2006).
Figure E- 2: Small Business Administration Declaration Process (GDEM, 2006).
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Figure E- 3: USDA Disaster Declaration Process (GDEM, 2006).
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Disaster Summary Outline
GENERAL Jurisdiction (County/City): _________________________ Population: ___________ Type of Disaster (Flood, Hurricane, Tornado, etc.) ________________________________________________________________________ If this is a flood event, does the City/County participate in the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP)? Yes/No Inclusive dates of the disaster: ______________________________________________ Was a local disaster declaration issued? Yes/ No (Not applicable for Agriculture assistance only) Contact Person: ___________________________ Title: _________________________ Address: _____________________ City: ________________ Zip Code: _____________ Phone ( )_______________ Fax ( ) _______________ Pager ( )_____________ 24-Hour Duty Officer/Sheriff’s Office ( )________ INDIVIDUAL ASSISTANCE Casualties: (Contact local area hospitals) A. Number of Fatalities _______________ B. Number of Injuries _______________ C. Number Hospitalized _______________ Number of homes isolated due to road closure (high water, etc.):__________________________________ Agricultural Losses: (Contact the Farm Service Agency in your county)
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Is agricultural assistance needed? Yes/ No If yes, please attach USDA flash situation report. Residential Losses - Primary Residence Only: (Local Damage Assessment) See guidelines on page 4.
Type of Homes
Destroyed
Major Damage
Minor Damage
Affected
% Covered by Insurance
Single Family Homes
Mobile Homes
Multi-Family Units
Totals
Estimated number of persons whose situation will not be satisfied by volunteer organizations (Contact local volunteer organizations) _________________________ Are shelters opened? Yes/No How many? ______________ Name, location, capacity, and current occupancy of shelters? ________________________________________________________________________ Business Losses/Impacts:
Number # Covered by Adequate Insurance
Total estimated repair cost
Major Damage(greater than )
$
Minor Damage (less than 40%)
$
Totals $
How many businesses have ceased operations: _______________________ How many businesses have experienced economic injury: _______________ Estimated number of persons unemployed because of this disaster__________________ (Contact affected businesses and the local Texas Workforce Commission Office)
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PUBLIC ASSISTANCE NOTE: All disaster related costs should be separated into the seven damage/work categories listed below: Category
Subcategory
No. of Sites
Estimated Repair Costs
Anticipated Insurance *
Debris Clearance $ $
Emergency (EMS, Fire, Police)
$ $
Road & Bridge Roads - Paved $ $
Roads - Unpaved $ $
Bridges - Destroyed $ $
Bridges - Closed & Repairable
$ $
Bridges - Damaged & Serviceable
$ $
Culverts - Totally washed away
$ $
Culverts - Damaged & still in place
$ $
Water Control Facilities (Dams, levees, dikes)
$ $
Buildings & Equipment
$ $
Public Utility Systems (Gas, Electric, Sewer, Water)
$ $
Other (Recreational Facilities, Airports, etc.)
$ $
Totals $ $
* Anticipated insurance is normally calculated by subtracting any deductible, depreciation or uncoverable loss from the estimated repair cost.
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Total annual maintenance budget (i.e. Public Works, Road & Bridge): $_____________ Start of Fiscal Year: Month____________ Others (Contact non-profit or governmental, medical, emergency, utility, educational, custodial care facilities, etc.) Organization/ Facility
No. of Sites
Estimated Repair Costs
Anticipated Insurance *
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
Totals
$
$
This form is for damage assessment reporting purposes only. In accordance with the State Emergency Management Plan, if a Mayor/County Judge determines that a situation is of such severity and magnitude that an effective response is beyond the affected jurisdiction’s capability to recover, a letter outlining the disaster impact and the need for supplemental State and/or Federal assistance must accompany this DSO. Once this form is completed, submit pages 1-3 to your local Disaster District Committee, and to: Texas Department of Public Safety Division of Emergency Management P.O. Box 4087 Austin, Texas 78773 or FAX to: 512-424-2444
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RESIDENTIAL LOSS GUIDELINES Destroyed: Structure is permanently uninhabitable and can not be repaired. Look for the following: Structure gone, only foundation remains; Major sections of walls missing or collapsed; Entire roof gone with noticeable distortion of the walls; Structure has shifted off of its foundation; More than 4 feet of water, over 12" for mobile homes. Major: Structure is currently uninhabitable and extensive repair is required to make it habitable. Look for the following: Portions of the roof, including decking, missing; Twisted, bowed or cracked walls; Penetration of structure by trees or cars, etc.; 2 to 4 feet of water, 6" to 12" for mobile homes. Minor: Structure is habitable with minor repairs. Look for the following: Many missing shingles, broken windows and doors; Siding loose, missing or damaged; Minor shifting or settling of foundation; Damaged septic systems (flood); 6" to 2 feet of water, less than 6” for mobile homes. Affected: Structure is habitable. Some minor damage may be eligible for assistance. Look for the following: A few missing shingles; Some broken windows; Damage to cars; Damage to Air Conditioner Compressor only; Less than 6” of water. Estimating Insurance: The following are general guidelines to estimating insurance coverage. Renters are less likely to have insurance. Low income residents are less likely to have insurance. Homeowners who are still paying off their mortgage will normally have the appropriate type of insurance.