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Consequences of economic transformation on labour market and poverty risks: comparison among Milan, Rome and Naples,
GUIDO CAVALCA
XI EURA CONFERENCE, Milan, OCTOBER 9-11, 2008
1
Consequences of economic transformation on labour
market and poverty risks: comparison among Milan, Rome
and Naples.
Guido Cavalca
Università di Milano Bicocca, Milan, Italy
guido.cavalca@unimib.it
Keywords: Labour market, Poverty, Social change
Introduction
The economic transformation, which took place in the capitalist economies in Europe and in other parts of the
“Western world” during the Seventies and Eighties, had strong consequences on societies and on cities where
social change occurred first and in a sharper manner (Mingione 2005).
Creative industries have played a very important role in the successful transformation from a Fordist to a post-
fordist system (Musterd and others 2007). Therefore, knowledge-based cities lead that process and represent an
important point of view on its social effects.
Indeed, one of the main issues of the international debate regards the possible negative effects of the economic
change on the living conditions of some „weak‟ social groups, like young people, migrants and low skilled
workers.
Sassen (1991) with the „global cities‟ pattern, but also Mollenkopf and Castells (1991) with their revised ‟Dual
city‟ hypothesis or Wilson (1987) with the „underclass‟ theory, argue that the recent economic development
affects urban society, generating a polarization between high skilled professionals and low skilled workers.
Others underline that different inequalities‟ and poverty‟s patterns exist among cities and that the social structure
is more complex than the „dual city‟ model argues (Mingione 1991). This approach, even if referred to the
specific case of global cities (London and New York and later other cities), has anyway influenced the debate on
postfordist cities.
Beck (1986), as well as other authors (Sennet 1998, Bauman 2001, Giddens 1990), identify new the risks of
post-modernity, such as individualization, as an alternative or supplementary model to the class approach.
This paper aims to contribute to this debate, analysing some Italian urban contexts.
We‟ll focus on the three Italian urban areas (the cities and the provinces around them) of Milan, Rome and
Naples, which represent three outcomes of economic development‟s and social changes‟ impact on cities. Milan
Consequences of economic transformation on labour market and poverty risks: comparison among Milan, Rome and Naples,
GUIDO CAVALCA
XI EURA CONFERENCE, Milan, OCTOBER 9-11, 2008
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is beyond doubt the best Italian example of a successful city in knowledge-based economy, passing from a
typical industrial city to an affluent post-industrial one; Rome, the bigger and capital city in Italy is a dynamic
city and it‟s trying to go towards the creative pattern; Naples is the more important city in the Southern Italy with
a scarce (public) industrial heritage and a current critical economic and social situation, facing in particular
structural unemployment and underdevelopment of service sector.
The approach on social change proposed by Mendras and Forsé (1991), in particular the focus on relations
between macro and meso/micro-level, plays a key role in order to interpret how economic transformations affect
individuals and social groups‟ concrete life and not only the social structure.
Using the data of a recent survey conducted in some urban areas in Italy1, we‟ll try to point out some main
characteristics of social change, labour market transformations, inequalities and poverty and how these
transformations differ among cities. This data set allows to analyse social transformations and individual
opportunities and risks during the last decades, comparing generations within cities and social groups among
cities, trying to identify how the post-industrial and knowledge based economy affect social conditions of
inhabitants and the difference among successful and un-(or less) successful cities.
1. Urban labour market transformation
Traditionally Italy is divided in two macro-area (three if considering the so called „Third Italy‟, the industrial
district located in some northern-centre regions) from an economic and social point of view. Northern Italy is
characterized by a very dynamic economy and labour market, thanks to the development of industries during the
fifties and sixties and later on as consequence of the transition (in some case through periods of economic crisis)
to post-industrial economy and a successful transformation of industrial production. The Central regions are in
that sense approaching that positive situation. The Southern macro-area suffers of economic, financial and
infrastructural problems and seems to keep that distance from the rest of Italy.
Also taking into account the urban areas this differentiation still holds true.
Considering in particular the labour market, it has to be underlined that the main question is the lack of job
supply in the Southern regions and urban areas. That part of Italy is traditionally underdeveloped; the industrial
development had been supported by public subventions and had never been able to develop locally and the
principal perspective for southern workers was to move towards the so-called “Industrial triangle” in the
Northern cities of Milan, Genoa and Turin, where the siderurgy, metal and engineering, textiles and auto
industries needed more labour forces than these urban areas could offer. Informal economy and the related job-
supply have always played an important role in the Southern social system.
In Naples the process towards an advanced service economy is far from being achieved: as shown in table 1,
Milan and Rome, even if with a different development‟s degree, have a large part of employment in the
knowledge based sectors.
1 The research project “Le tendenze al mutamento della società italiana (2003-2005)” („Change‟s trends of Italian society‟)
involved seven urban areas (Milan, Florence, Rome, Ancona, Naples, Bari and Cosenza), conducting a survey (2004) on
representative samples.
Consequences of economic transformation on labour market and poverty risks: comparison among Milan, Rome and Naples,
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XI EURA CONFERENCE, Milan, OCTOBER 9-11, 2008
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Tab. 1 Sectors of knowledge-based economy by local units and employees (% of total) in the province of Milan,
Rome and Naples
Milan Rome Naples
Local
Units Employees
Local
Units Employees
Local
Units Employees
Publishing 0,45 0,85 0,41 0,48 0,15 0,19
Manufacture of television and radio
transmitters and apparatus for line
telephony and line telegraphy
0,23 0,82 0,19 0,41 0,15 0,27
Software consultancy and supply 1,67 2,20 1,29 2,83 0,52 0,91
Data processing 0,88 0,84 0,68 0,60 0,45 0,38
Telecommunications 0,08 0,96 0,10 2,05 0,05 1,09
Monetary intermediation 0,56 2,57 0,51 2,91 0,43 1,66
Legal, accounting, book keeping and
auditing activities; tax consultancy;
market research and public opinion
polling; business and management
consultancy; holdings
7,52 4,21 8,08 3,55 7,13 2,62
Architectural and engineering of
personnel 4,74 1,72 4,43 1,43 3,23 1,04
Advertising 1,05 0,93 0,58 0,31 0,25 0,14
Labour recruitment and provision of
personnel 0,24 1,38 0,07 0,71 0,03 0,41
Source: Census 2001 Istat (8. Censimento dell’Industria e dei Servizi)
Many indicators can support these statements about different economic patterns in Northern and Central Italy
contrasting with the Southern urban areas. The ones related to labour market are particularly interesting, because
they show directly the consequences of economic trends on socio-economic conditions and social structure
(labour and social inclusion; class division and change) and indirectly – in particular if used with other indicators
and a socio-economic background knowledge – the „social regulation of work‟, i.e. the combination of social,
economic and juridical rules, which allow a specific form of work be compatible with social needs, promoting
therefore social inclusion.
2. Labour market participation
A basic comparison among the three cities shows clearly the cleavages described.
In Naples unemployment and low female participation are impressive, typical of a weak labour market and
suffering social situation. Rome and Milan, even if with some differences, approaches the mean European
standards thanks to an increasing female participation and a low level of unemployment. An example helps to
appreciate the dimensions of that difference: among women aged 30-34 the distance between employment rates
in Naples on the one hand and in Milan and Rome on the other reaches around the 30 percent.
Consequences of economic transformation on labour market and poverty risks: comparison among Milan, Rome and Naples,
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XI EURA CONFERENCE, Milan, OCTOBER 9-11, 2008
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Tab. 2 Activity, employment and unemployment rate (15-64 y.o) - 2004
Activity Employment Unemployment
M F M F M F
Milan 78,1 61,8 75,0 59,2 4,0 4,3
West-Northern Italy 77,2 58,0 74,6 54,5 3,2 6,0
Rome 76,0 59,2 71,2 55,3 6,3 6,6
Central Italy 75,2 55,5 71,4 50,8 4,9 8,3
Naples 75,7 37,6 60,1 28,5 20,6 24,2
Southern Italy 69,9 37,5 61,9 30,1 11,4 19,6
Italy 74,4 50,4 69,7 45,3 6,2 10,1 Source: survey‟s data for urban areas; Istat-RTFL for the macro-areas (italics)
We‟re going to describe the transformation of urban labour markets during and in consequence of the transition
between the industrial and the post-industrial phases.
Milan appears the more dynamic city, thanks to the rapid change of the production system, whereas Naples
seems to be dramatically stable: if unemployment decreases, is only because of a “discouragement effect”
(unemployed, who do not trust to find a job, become inactive on the labour market) and doesn‟t mean an increase
of job supply; the young women (except for the high educated) continue to stay mostly out of labour market and
the main social risks seem to be the “old” forms of workers‟ exploitation more than the new forms of unstable
job.
The radical change occurred in the European labour market entry, in particular among women, involves some
Italian areas more than others. With regard to the last generations we expect a postponed transition to work and a
massive growth of female participation in Milan and Rome and a static situation in Naples.
Consequences of economic transformation on labour market and poverty risks: comparison among Milan, Rome and Naples,
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XI EURA CONFERENCE, Milan, OCTOBER 9-11, 2008
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Graphs 1 Labour market entry of women in Milan, Rome and Naples – comparison among generations
Naples
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34
Rome
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34
Milan
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34
Up to 1949
1950-59
1960-69
Consequences of economic transformation on labour market and poverty risks: comparison among Milan, Rome and Naples,
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XI EURA CONFERENCE, Milan, OCTOBER 9-11, 2008
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As the graphs show, Naples does not experience any relevant change in female labour market: the majority of
women keep on staying out of paid work, reinforcing the industrial household‟s model of male breadwinner,
who indeed is at risk of being unemployed. The last generation of women living in Milan and Rome, on the
contrary, accelerates the social change: only 20% of women aged between 35 and 442 in Milan and 30% in
Rome do not enter in the labour market with a consistent decrease in comparison with the decade and the
generation before.
Maintaining the observation on young-adult women in the three urban areas, we focus on the two
patterns of women social role, which are clearly opposing Milan and Rome on one side and Naples on the other.
Among women aged 25-35 almost half of the sample has already left home in Milan and Rome and 40% in
Naples. Their labour market condition in the new households is interesting. In the north-central urban areas they
are mostly working, whereas in Naples the half of them are housewives. Milan in particular shows an extremely
work-oriented social behaviour: largely more than the 80% of women, also among the ones who‟re still living
with their parents, is employed. The image of Milan so far is of a post-industrial city, with a very high work
participation, which steers the household structure towards a new pattern, particularly innovative for the Italian
case, the „two-income households‟.
Tab. 3 Occupational structure – women 25-35 y.o.
Milan Rome Naples
Left home
(46,1%)
Employment 86,0 75,9 39,4
Unemployment 1,8 6,3 6,1
Housewifes 8,0 15,2 51,7
In education and other inactives 4,2 2,6 2,8
Total 100 (49,7) 100 (48,8) 100 (40,4)
Still with parents
(53,9%)
Employment 84,1 70,0 39,9
Unemployment 4,3 10,9 26,0
Housewifes 12,3
In education and other inactives 11,6 19,1 22,0
Total 100 (50,3) 100 (51,2) 100 (59,6)
In order to analyse the social change, we worked on a dynamic analysis of women‟s mobility towards activity in
the labour market, comparing two generations, dividing individuals between the ones with some working
experience and the ones never entered in the labour market.
As we can observe in the table 4, women mobility towards an active role is higher in Milan than in Rome and
even more than in Naples, where only less than a third of women has work experience and a never-active
mother.
Also considering the young-adult women (30-44 y.o.), the level of change towards involvement in the labour
market is lower in Naples than in Rome and Milan.
2 It‟s actually the youngest generation which has completed the potential transition to work.
Consequences of economic transformation on labour market and poverty risks: comparison among Milan, Rome and Naples,
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TAB. 4 Intergenerational female transition from inactivity to activity
Tertiary
education
Upper
secondary
education
Lower
secondary/prime
education
Total
Milan immobile active 38,4% 33,2% 23,9% 30,2%
mobile active 52,3% 49,3% 40,4% 46,1%
immobile inactive 6,0% 11,1% 24,5% 15,9%
mobile inactive 3,2% 6,4% 11,2% 7,9%
N 281 639 678 1598
Rome immobile active 44,9% 31,3% 16,0% 28,2%
mobile active 44,4% 43,9% 33,1% 40,0%
immobile inactive 6,2% 16,9% 37,2% 22,4%
mobile inactive 4,5% 7,8% 13,7% 9,4%
N 243 537 468 1248
Naples immobile active 32,8% 11,4% 3,8% 10,3%
mobile active 56,3% 40,5% 15,7% 29,4%
immobile inactive 7,1% 37,3% 67,5% 49,3%
mobile inactive 3,8% 10,9% 13,1% 11,0%
N 183 405 689 1277
It‟s very interesting to observe the role played by education: if we consider graduate women the differences
among the three Italian cities in regard to this specific form of mobility disappear. Taking into account 100
women with tertiary education living in Naples, 56 are or have been in the labour market even if their mothers
never worked and only 6 maintain the same position of their inactive mothers. Then the educational inequalities
in the southern city strongly affect the social roles and opportunities; the highest level of education plays the role
of social improvement‟s tool for women. In fact, we also know that high educated women living in Southern
Italy, not only tend to work instead of being housewife, but also reach similar labour market performance as the
other European women, in terms of activity, employment and unemployment rates (Eurostat, Regional Labour
Market Statistics3)
This radical and differentiated transformation has to be set into a more general frame of social change,
which affects the transition to adulthood. Among the last generations all the relevant stages are postponed in the
individual biographies, in particular for the high educated subjects: studies completion, first job4, work
stabilization5 and home leaving are shifted forth (Benassi and Novello 2007
6).
This is a general phenomenon which includes all the Italian larger cities; the postponement of leaving home is
particularly important in the Italian context and has to be analysed together with the other elements of transition
to adulthood.
The age of becoming independent from parents is traditionally high, because of typical social norms, but also of
the social regulation‟s model of work and unemployment. On one hand, in fact, many young Italians tend to wait
at home for the “right” job (in terms of stability and income), according to the Italian pattern of labour market
3 Eurostat website:
http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page?_pageid=1996,45323734&_dad=portal&_schema=PORTAL&screen=welcomere
f&open=/reg/reg_lmk&language=en&product=EU_MASTER_regions&root=EU_MASTER_regions&scrollto=102 4 First job is considered the first workplace after that activity in the labour market has become the main one. Then small jobs,
which are usually the first experiences in the labour market, are excluded. 5 It‟s the first stable and regular work place as the subject perceived it. It is a proxy indicator of stabilization, because the
perception of what a stable and regular job is changes over time. 6 The authors analyse the stage of leaving home as part of the transition to adulthood, using the same survey‟s data on Italian
cities.
Consequences of economic transformation on labour market and poverty risks: comparison among Milan, Rome and Naples,
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XI EURA CONFERENCE, Milan, OCTOBER 9-11, 2008
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entry (Reyneri 2005; Gallie and Paugam 2000). The „familistic‟ Welfare regime (Ferrera 1998, Esping-Andersen
1999, Mingione 1999) drives them to stay at home, protected by one or two working parents and by the local
social network. A similar social mechanism protects unemployed young people from poverty (Reyneri 2005).
The extension of the cohabitation with parents, together with the postponement of the other biographical steps
towards adulthood, reinforce the role of family as the key element of social integration in Italy, also in the more
affluent, dynamic and changing urban areas.
3. Social structure and social mobility
The difference in economic development among the three cities should affect also their social structure and
social mobility.
We expected to find out a larger high-middle class (professionals, entrepreneurs and managers) in Milan and
Rome than in Naples, because a knowledge-based city needs more qualified people working in the advanced
economic sectors.
Some differences, indeed, emerge in the social classes‟ composition, but this information has to be crossed with
the economic/production sectors, as they are shown in Tab. 1. The main distinction, in fact, has to do with each
class‟s composition (in term of economic sector and type of contract) than in its extent, which slightly
differentiates among cities.
Tab. 5 Social classes (%)
Milan Rome Naples Total
Professionals - entrepreneurs 10,8 10,6 11,8 11,0
High middle class (management) 7,7 8,0 4,9 7,1
White collars middle class 49,7 51,3 44,7 48,8
„Traditional‟ middle class 7,5 8,1 9,5 8,2
Workers class 24,3 21,9 29,1 24,9
Total 3691 2519 2326 8536
As a second step we look at the inter-generational and intra-generational social mobility. Cities, which succeeded
in economic transformation and need nowadays qualified expertise and labour demand, should be more dynamic
than others, giving more opportunities to improve one‟s social position. In Milan and Rome a higher social
mobility is expected taking into account both individuals in respect to their parents and individuals‟ career.
Consequences of economic transformation on labour market and poverty risks: comparison among Milan, Rome and Naples,
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Tab. 6 Intergenerational absolute social mobility (%)
Parents’s class/
Current class
Professionals
- high middle
class
White collars
middle class
„Traditional‟
middle class
Workers
class Total
Milan
Professionals - high middle class 47,6 39,7 2,3 10,4 100,0
White collars middle class 25,3 60,2 4,9 9,6 100,0
„Traditional‟ middle class 22,9 42,5 14,0 20,5 100,0
Workers class 14,1 42,1 8,3 35,6 100,0
Total 23,1 45,6 7,4 23,9 100,0
Rome
Professionals - high middle class 45,2 40,9 3,0 10,9 100,0
White collars middle class 25,2 60,4 2,2 12,2 100,0
„Traditional‟ middle class 21,9 41,0 13,4 23,7 100,0
Workers class 12,2 44,3 7,7 35,8 100,0
Total 22,7 48,2 6,0 23,1 100,0
Naples
Professionals - high middle class 37,3 44,7 5,0 13,0 100,0
White collars middle class 20,1 59,9 4,4 15,6 100,0
„Traditional‟ middle class 15,2 36,9 18,1 29,8 100,0
Workers class 10,8 31,8 6,6 50,8 100,0
Total 17,3 41,4 7,7 33,6 100,0
Milan shows the highest rate of both inter-generational and intra-generational mobility. According to our data
almost half of the interviewed in Milan (46%) moved upwards compared with their parents‟ social class and 40%
conserved the same position. In Rome the social mobility is rather lower but similar, whereas Naples shows, as
seen before, a higher level of stability, which is obviously a bad signal. In the southern city, in fact, almost the
half of the sample stays in the same social class of their parents and the upwards movement is considerably low
(36%).
Tab. 7 Intergenerational social mobility rates (%)
Immobility rate
Upwards mobility rate
Downwards mobility rate
Milan 39,6 46 14,5
Rome 42 41,8 16,2
Naples 46 36,1 18,0
If we consider the intra-generational mobility the difference in social dynamic among cities is similar: almost a
third of the interviewed in Milan and Rome improve their position in the social hierarchy, in Naples only one
fourth. Also in this case the southern city shows the highest level of social immobility, which involves more than
2/3 of the sample, the 10% more than in Milan.
Tab. 8 Intragenerational social mobility rates (%)
Immobility rate
Upwards mobility
rate
Downwards
mobility rate
Milan 58,9 32,1 9,0
Rome 63,1 29,0 7,9
Naples 68,1 22,6 9,3
Consequences of economic transformation on labour market and poverty risks: comparison among Milan, Rome and Naples,
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4. How risks change
One of the main issues about post-industrial cities regards the living and work conditions of low classes and low
skilled workers, who are presented as the other side of the coin of globalization. On the “main” side we
frequently see the international managers, their brilliant levels of living around the world. The “bad” size,
involves the economic and social conditions of manual workers in industrial and service sectors and, among
these, migrants. Their activities integrate the high skilled and intellectual working activities of professionals and
managers living in the steering international cities (Sassen 1991).
From another point of view the post-industrial (or global) living style and living conditions are described as
critical to a larger extent, involving not only the low classes, but also the middle and higher classes, which, even
if they‟re possessing the main part of national or urban resources, run a risk of economic and social difficulties,
and even poverty, stronger than during the industrial phase (Beck, Sennet, Bauman).
According to Beck (1986) and Mayer (2003), individuals in post-industrial cities make experience of instability
in every social sphere, work, social relations, family and economic conditions, which ineluctably complicate
their whole biographies. During the Fordist phase it was quite easy to resume and design a model for an
occidental citizen, differentiating at most between men and women.
This change of biographic trajectories influences also the subjective perception of living conditions and this will
be handled by the analysis.
In this part of the paper the analysis will be shifted on “objective” and subjective work and economic conditions,
in order to answer the question whether a knowledge-based city like Milan (and in part Rome) has changed its
pattern of inequalities and social risks as an effect of structural transformations. The hypothesis is that in
Postfordist urban contexts the instability in labour market and the economic risks have increased – at least in
some part of the urban society, if not at every social level. Moreover, the gap between risk‟s patterns in Milan
and Naples, considered as extremes in the Italian case, should be greater than before, because of the successful
post-industrial economy in the first case and the dramatic stability in the other. We expect to find a “new” and a
“traditional” set of inequalities, the first as typical of knowledge-based cities, the second of an underdeveloped
city.
Finally, we‟ll try to find evidence about the Beck‟s hypothesis of „the society of risk‟, obviously without any
pretence to be exhaustive, focusing on the labour market frame.
4.1 Unstable job, precariousness, insecurity
First of all, we deal with work instability and the concept of precariousness, often discussed by social sciences
and very popular in the public debate.
The idea that new generations are at risk of lasting unstable jobs is far from being proved empirically. So far it‟s
possible to argue that young people have to pass through new forms of unstable job and in this sense they‟re less
„safe‟ than their parents who worked during the Fordist period. The question is, indeed, whether the new
economic system creates a whole generation at risk, in other words whether this phenomenon is really
widespread – within every social class and educational level or concentrated in some – and, finally, which are
the real consequences.
We can draw three possible outcomes for the case of a knowledge-based urban economy (here Milan).
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First of all, if instability affects mainly the manual workers, it should be possible to strengthen Sassen‟s point of
view; if it involves the whole society or a large part of it, Beck‟s hypothesis will be supported; finally, if work
instability regards the young managers and professionals more than the others, it could be argued that this kind
of instability is not a classic form of inequality, but a „worthy risk‟. In this last case, in fact, the professional and
economic goal, which lies at the end of a hurdle racing of temporary, bad paid and irregular jobs, is valuable in
terms of income (not necessary of work place‟s stability: self-employment). Furthermore, the possible fall is
often cushioned by social relations and family.
Unstable work can take a “post-industrial” form (new kind of formal temporary jobs) and a steady form,
which is the informal (off-the-books) employment, which have been used also during the high regulated Fordist
period.
Milan offers more opportunities of stable jobs than Rome (with a small difference) and Naples, but the spread of
regular temporary employment is very similar in the three cities, in particular among men (between 7 and 8%; it
varies between 12 and 16% within women).
What really makes a difference is the irregular employment in Naples, which affects a similar proportion of
labour force and has not been strongly reduced by temporary job, unlike its promoters claimed.
Both forms of instability involve young people in Naples but differentiated among social levels: informal jobs
concern the ones with secondary and tertiary education whereas the irregular employment is stronger among
people with primary and low-secondary education with a manual employment (workers and „traditional‟ low-
middle class – „relative autonomous middle class‟ according to Sylos Labini‟s definition (1974) – as traders and
handicraftsmen).
Irregular employment is extremely low in Milan and plays a role only among young women.
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Tab. 9 Type of employment by age and urban area
14-30 31-40 41-50 50 + Total
Milan
M
Stable 74,8 93,7 98,3 97,2 92,0
Temporary 23,5 5,7 1,0 2,1 7,1
Irregular employment 1,8 0,6 0,7 0,7 0,9
N 226 351 297 282 1156
W
Stable 69,0 87,6 91,2 93,8 85,8
Temporary 26,5 10,8 8,1 5,6 12,4
Irregular employment 4,5 1,7 0,7 0,7 1,8
N 200 362 284 144 990
Rome
M
Stable 70,6 88,9 98,5 93,7 89,9
Temporary 26,9 7,7 1,0 3,9 7,8
Irregular employment 2,5 3,4 0,5 2,4 2,2
N 119 235 206 206 766
W
Stable 57,9 82,5 93,3 90,6 82,4
Temporary 37,6 17,5 6,2 7,2 16,1
Irregular employment 4,5 0,5 2,2 1,5
N 133 223 194 138 688
Naples
M
Stable 65,3 88,0 91,7 90,7 85,7
Temporary 16,0 6,3 5,2 4,9 7,3
Irregular employment 18,8 5,7 3,1 4,4 7,0
N 144 192 229 226 791
W
Stable 59,0 76,9 86,9 96,5 78,9
Temporary 26,0 19,7 11,1 15,3
Irregular employment 15,0 3,4 2,0 3,5 5,8
N 100 147 99 86 432
Temporary jobs are concentrated among young people, women and highly educated, but equally distributed
within classes.
Then, they could be considered mostly a tool (maybe unwanted and undesirable, at least a “necessary evil”) for
young, highly educated subjects who want to achieve a high social level and work satisfactions, probably with
good chances and some risks of failure.
We can figure a profile of temporary workers in the three cities: a young manual worker and a young
professional under 30 y.o. who are making experiences on the labour market and who could use their educational
and working skills to improve their position and, if possible and with more chance in Milan, to move towards a
higher class.
Instability can also be hard, such as in periods of unemployment or even low income and furthermore without
any possibility to leave home and to start a family. These problems are well-known and related to the
postponement of transition to adulthood. At the same time, not all young people working with temporary
contracts have that kind of skills and for them the risk of the so called “entrapment” is definitely higher.
Nevertheless, it cannot be argued that among young people temporary employments tend to be a path to
precariousness, whereas among adults work instability definitely means precariousness.
Among people aged 31-40 y.o. the quote of temporary employment decreases strongly in every considered urban
area and among older men living in Milan and Rome it becomes insignificant. So, instability starts to be
problematic when we consider adults in Naples and, most of all, women.
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Instability is strongly related to gender‟s inequality, because women with the same age and skills of men run a
higher risk of having an instable position even after 30 y.o. and that can be considered a form of precariousness.
The level of female work instability is quite uniform among cities and seems to be stronger than men‟s one
related to the level of education.
Tab. 10 Type of employment by level of education and urban area
Tertiary
education
Upper-
secondary
education
Compulsory
education Totale
Milan
Men
Stable 89,5 92,7 92,6 92,0
Temporary 9,3 7,0 6,0 7,2
Irregular employment 1,2 0,4 1,4 0,9
N 257 532 367 1156
Women
Stable 76,7 90,1 86,8 85,9
Temporary 20,2 9,1 11,1 12,4
Irregular employment 3,2 0,8 2,1 1,7
N 253 504 235 992
Rome
Men
Stable 91,4 88,9 89,8 89,8
Temporary 8,1 9,2 5,8 8,0
Irregular employment 0,5 1,8 4,4 2,2
N 186 380 206 772
Women
Stable 77,3 83,7 85,4 82,1
Temporary 22,7 14,4 12,2 16,4
Irregular employment / 1,9 2,4 1,5
N 198 368 123 689
Naples
Men
Stable 91,4 88,6 80,3 85,9
Temporary 7,3 9,0 5,5 7,3
Irregular employment 1,3 2,4 14,2 6,8
N 151 332 310 793
Women
Stable 80,4 82,0 68,1 79,2
Temporary 19,0 12,8 15,9 15,5
Irregular employment 0,7 5,2 15,9 5,3
N 153 211 69 433
The older generations could have experienced not only the already existing forms of instability, like informal
job, fixed-term or training contracts, but also the new forms of temporary contracts recently stated7. It‟s self-
evident – and the survey‟s data confirm it – that young people are particularly affected by the new flexible
contracts; on the contrary empirical evidences are required to argue that the new generations are more exposed to
instability than their parents and grandparents.
We tackle that question using retrospective information on events of instable jobs.
7 The first important reform law was carried through in 1996. It stated the so called “interim job” and forms of „collaboration‟
(contract of services).
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TAB. 11 Fixed-term employment – n. of events
70s 80s 60s 50s until 40s Total
Milan Never 44,6 61,1 73,2 80,9 69,6
1-2 41,2 28,9 21,1 14,2 22,8
+3 14,2 10,0 5,7 4,9 7,5
N 148 339 299 492 1278
Rome Never 51,1 61,5 68,5 79,0 68,2
1-2 33,0 25,9 24,3 15,3 22,6
+3 15,9 12,7 7,2 5,7 9,2
N 88 205 181 262 736
Naples Never 52,2 58,2 76,4 75,4 68,8
1-2 30,4 32,3 16,6 18,2 22,8
+3 17,4 9,5 7,0 6,4 8,4
N 46 158 157 187 548
The increase of fixed-term employment over the decades is very strong: a half (even more in Milan) of people
born during the Seventies and the Eighties and active in the labour market have almost one experience of this
kind of contract. Among young and young-adult people (15-34 y.o.) the high educated are more exposed to
fixed-term jobs.
As expected, an even more dramatic increment involves the interim employment (not shown in the tables), but
it‟s concentrated among women in Rome and Naples, whereas in Milan it follows a similar trend between
genders. Among young people (15-34 y.o.) the lower is the education level the more frequent is the experience
of interim employment, the opposite relation just seen for fixed-term employment.
Tab. 12 Fixed-term and interim employment by education level (18-34 y.o.) – n. of events
Tertiary
education
Upper-secondary
education
Compulsory
education Total
Milan
fixed term 68,9 51,3 43,5 55,5
N total 45 78 23 146
interim 14,9 17,7 25,0 18,0
N total 47 79 24 150
Rome
fixed term 53,3 54,3 28,6 50,0
N total 30 46 14 90
interim 3,2 8,5 21,4 8,7
N total 31 47 14 92
Naples
fixed term 41,7 66,7 16,7 46,7
N total 12 21 12 45
interim 41,7 4,5 8,3 15,2
N total 12 22 12 46
Irregular work doesn‟t increase among young generations in Naples, where it‟s more pervasive, but it does in
Milan, slightly and among men, and in Rome, in a stronger manner and in particular among women. As we have
just underlined, irregular employment is at most 1-2% of the whole employment in these two cities; this suggests
that black jobs are a common but transitional condition in Milan and Rome, whereas they represent a real risk of
precariousness in the case of low educated women in Naples.
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Tab. 13 Irregular employment – n. of events
70s 80s 60s 50s fino 40s Total
Milan Never 68,9 68,7 71,4 73,5 71,2
1-2 14,9 19,4 17,8 18,2 18,0
+3 16,2 11,9 10,8 8,4 10,8
N 148 335 297 490 1270
Rome Never 53,3 59,0 61,8 65,0 61,1
1-2 17,4 22,4 20,8 21,7 21,1
+3 29,3 18,5 17,4 13,3 17,8
N 92 205 178 263 738
Naples Never 44,4 48,1 42,8 55,2 48,6
1-2 28,9 30,1 30,2 27,3 29,1
+3 26,7 21,8 27,0 17,5 22,3
N 45 156 159 183 543
4.2 Transition to stable job (stabilization)
The transition from the first job to stability8 is normally fast („Fast stabilization‟): almost the 2/3 of the sample or
more (75% in Milan; 70% in Rome; 65% in Naples) do it within a year and 6% (5% in Naples) finds a stable job
even before starting working as the main activity („Early stabilization‟; in concrete: a small job during
educational period becomes the stable one). The rest, less the ¼ of the sample (23%), increasing among the low
level of education, required almost 1 year to find a stable job („Slow stabilization‟, on the average it took 6 years
in Milan, more than 7 in Rome and rather 8 in Naples.
Tab. 14 Typology of stabilization process
Born 60-69 45-59 <45 Total
Milan
Slow stabilization 18,3 17,8 22,7 19,5
Fast stabilization 74,4 75,9 72,8 74,5
Early stabilization 7,3 6,3 4,5 6,0
N 698 922 753 2373
Rome
Slow stabilization 23,4 21,8 28,6 24,4
Fast stabilization 69,3 72,3 67,3 69,8
Early stabilization 7,3 6,0 4,1 5,8
N 482 602 490 1574
Naples
Slow stabilization 31,5 28,3 30,1 29,8
Fast stabilization 63,3 65,4 67,6 65,4
Early stabilization 5,2 6,2 2,3 4,8
N 384 561 355 1300
According to the data, the pattern of transition to work has not changed a lot over the economic periods. The
rapid stabilization seems to be rather stable trough generations in the three cities9. The only remarkable change is
the increase of the smallest subgroup of people who found a stable job very early, as they were still living with
parents and during the educational period. Then, from this point of view it cannot be argued that precariousness
and even instability are actually growing, even if the events of instable (and irregular) jobs are increasing, as
seen in the last paragraph.
8 See note 4 and 5. 9 People born after ‟69 was excluded from this analysis, because the majority of them were still living at home and this
information has been collected only on the householder and the possible partner. The ones who have already left home could
not be representative of the whole age group and in any case the results related to them go in the same direction.
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Also considering people who need more time to find a stable employment (the second larger group in the
sample), the trend seems even to improve: the average time of stabilization has decreased.
Tab. 15 Transition to work-stabilization (average n. of years)
Generation Years‟ average N
Milan
60-74 5,7 93
45-59 5,6 113
<45 7,3 127
Totale 6,3 333
Rome
60-74 5,6 89
45-59 6,7 99
<45 9,9 122
Totale 7,7 310
Naples
60-74 7,7 110
45-59 8,1 137
<45 8,4 90
Totale 8,1 337
Finally, even if the way to find a stable job is becoming more complex – more and shorter jobs – and the risks of
„entrapment‟ in instability exist, in particular for women and low educated, precariousness is not growing in
general and the new generations have to face new situations, conditions and risks, but seem to meet with
problems and find solutions as well as the older generations.
In order to make the analysis the more complete as possible, we can use another proxy indicator, the
duration of the current employment10
. We find out a confirmation that the increasing instability has limited and
specific bad effects, which have to be identified precisely, in order to avoid to lump everything together and to
find the right solution in term of policies.
In every considered city the graduates (in Rome also people with upper secondary education) experience more
stability, as their current job last proportionally longer than the others.
10 The duration of current employment is expressed by an index which eliminates the influence of different lengths of
education and employment careers. The index is the relation between current employment‟s length (in years) and the whole
work career (difference between age and first employment‟s age). It obviously reduces also the effect of education, as the
longer an individual keep on studying the shorter is normally his/her work career (in particular if the career is calculated
starting when work becomes the main activity). The higher is the score the more lasting is the current employment.
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Tab. 16 Index of current employment‟s duration (all ages)
Index Average N
Milan
Tertiary education 0,82 511
Upper-secondary education 0,79 886
Compulsory education 0,66 572
Total 0,76 1970
Rome
Tertiary education 0,86 383
Upper-secondary education 0,86 633
Compulsory education 0,72 334
Total 0,83 1351
Naples
Tertiary education 0,94 296
Upper-secondary education 0,86 455
Compulsory education 0,72 368
Total 0,84 1118
The higher educated, even if through a fragmented pathway (fixed term contracts), find more stable jobs than the
less skilled people, who, on the other hand, experience worse instability (interim jobs and irregular employment).
In terms of occupational levels the relation follows the same scheme: low and manual workers and also the
traders and handicraftsmen have the less continuous employment, on the other hand the professionals and upper
middle class have the more lasting jobs. And that holds also among young and young-adult people aged between
18 and 34.
Then, we figure out two different instability‟s outcomes. The first, often favourable, involves high
skilled workers (among them the creative workers), who cross many instable jobs and achieve to find a regular
(in term of time continuity) and normally well-paid job, even if not necessarily safe in terms of contract. The
other one, the risky, regards the low educated workers, with risks of entrapment in instability – considered as
lasting employment insecurity – and precariousness – defined as job instability after the age of 30 y.o. (an
arbitrary threshold, which however fits the Italian case) with economic and social consequences in terms of
capabilities‟ constraint. This condition involves in particular low educated women in the three cities (more in
Naples, but in a significant amount also in Milan and Rome).
The social structure of a „creative‟ urban context seems to have changed fast, but the risks‟ pattern appears to be
rather similar, changing but smoothly. The inequalities follow the classic social cleavages, education and class
structure, on one hand, and gender, on the other, which combine with each others; here social change and some
new paths of risks, related at most to labour market‟s reforms, come into play. Some of them involve again
women and lower social classes, the others tend to meet the high skilled workers, also the new social classes
linked with knowledge-based economy. But in this last case it‟s rather difficult to talk of diffuse precariousness‟s
danger and consequently of „Society of Risk‟.
4.3 A Society of Risk? On Beck’s hypothesis
The last part of the analysis on instability and risk try to verify the Beck‟s hypothesis, even if only in relation to
employment.
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The index used to analyze the labour market instability counts all the events related to work and inactivity, more
precisely each transition from a labour market condition to another (employment and type of job, unemployment,
inactivity), standardized for the labour market career‟s length11
.
The index as a whole doesn‟t vary among cities, but, looking at education level, social class and generations,
some interesting aspects come out.
In every considered city the labour market instability increases proportionally to social level (education and
occupation), inversely to age and among women, and in Milan these relations are much stronger. In brief, the
social profile of the highest level of instability is a graduate young woman working as professional/self-
employed and living in Milan (index value = 0.82, the general average = 0.2).
Tab. 17 Index of labour market‟s instability (generations and social profiles)
Generations and social profiles Index average N
Milan
60-74 0,39 1019
Graduate woman 0,82 157
Compulsory education w/m 0,21 240
45-59 0,12 960
Graduate w/m 0,12 171
<45 0,11 791
All 0,22 2770
Rome
60-74 0,40 684
Graduate woman 0,52 100
Compulsory education w/m 0,33 143
45-59 0,12 623
Graduate w/m 0,12 148
<45 0,08 532
All 0,22 1839
Naples
60-74 0,30 546
Graduate woman 0,43 69
Compulsory education w/m 0,21 161
45-59 0,12 605
Graduate w/m 0,09 130
<45 0,08 390
All 0,17 1542
On one side, this evidence supports the idea that working instability has involved the whole last generations
(within people aged between 30 and 45 y.o. have the index is higher than in the whole sample), on the other side,
the social features do matter a lot, as the lower classes make experience of a limited labour market instability, a
bit higher than the older generations but strongly lower than their coetaneous of higher social level.
Beck‟s hypothesis is only partially supported by this analysis on labour market. Instability is increasing and
individuals‟ biographies are less predictable and standardized than before, as Mayer (2003) proved more
precisely.
Anyway, it appears difficult, almost in the Italian case, to define a creative city like Milan as generally risky,
whereas this is the case of Naples as a traditionally underdeveloped urban area.
11 The sum of all kinds of jobs, of all the unemployment‟s periods and, in case of women with children, the possible leaving
and returning to work, was divided with the labour market career, started with the first job as principle activity and possibly
stopped with retirement. This index is a proxy measure of labour market transition per year.
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We can argue that more people are (and fell) unsafe than before (Sennet 1998, Bauman 2001), but we still find a
large part of society living with standardized and stable work biographies and therefore limited risks. And at the
same time, different social classes run different kind of social risks, also with very different chances of coping
with them.
Other question is to understand if well-being is increasing, declining or stable; in this sense there is also the
tendency to mythicize the fordist period.
4.4 Poverty perception and ‘economic mobility’
The last point of the paper regards the risk of poverty and its change over generations, which is normally hard to
measure on an urban level.
This survey on social change in Italian cities has collected information on subjective poverty, i.e. the individuals‟
perception of their economic conditions and of their parent‟s households.
Nowadays in Milan the economic conditions seem to be strongly better than in Naples and Rome at every social
level and age.
Tab. 18 Current economic conditions by social class
Professionals -
high middle
class
White collars
middle class
„Traditional‟
middle class
Workers
class Total
Milan
Rich/very rich 17,4% 4,9% 4,7% 1,9% 7,1%
neither rich nor poor 79,8% 88,1% 88,3% 82,5% 84,9%
poor/very poor 2,8% 7,0% 7,0% 15,6% 8,1%
N 1199 2406 383 1260 5248
Rome
Rich/very rich 12,0% 4,5% 5,2% 1,0% 5,3%
neither rich nor poor 84,7% 88,8% 89,7% 81,2% 86,2%
poor/very poor 3,3% 6,7% 5,2% 17,8% 8,5%
N 870 1896 233 937 3936
Naples
Rich/very rich 9,2% 3,4% 0,8% 1,1% 3,4%
neither rich nor poor 83,4% 85,1% 85,8% 66,6% 78,5%
poor/very poor 7,4% 11,5% 13,4% 32,2% 18,1%
N 802 2036 381 1703 4922
Using the same method adopted to analyze the social mobility, it is possible to represent the mobility of
subjective economic conditions, which can be considered a proxy of the dynamic impact of economic trends in
these urban areas.
As expected Milan seems to be the more dynamic city and this confirms the evidence about social mobility. In
the Northern city, in fact, the upwards mobility involves a quarter of the sample, in Rome 16% and in Naples
only 13%; the downwards mobility in the southern city hit another 13%, more than Rome (9%) and Milan (8%).
The stable subgroups are similar in the three cities, involving more than 2/3 of the population.
Tab. 19 Economic mobility rates (%)
Immobility rate
Upwards
mobility
Downwards
mobility
Milan 71,1 20,8 8,1
Rome 73,6 16,8 9,6
Naples 74,1 13,0 12,9
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We can argue that the higher class in Milan is not only larger than in Rome and Naples, but also more affluent
and more „open‟. In that sense Milan seems to offer good opportunities to every social level, but in particular for
people able to face instability and with high skills.
Tab. 20 Absolute economic mobility (%)
Economic conditions of
parents‟
houshold/current
economic conditions
Rich/very rich neither rich
nor poor poor/very poor Total
Milan
Rich/very rich 33,5% 63,2% 3,3% 100,0%
neither rich nor poor 5,1% 89,5% 5,4% 100,0%
poor/very poor 6,2% 75,4% 18,4% 100,0%
Total 7,2% 84,8% 8,0% 100,0%
Rome
Rich/very rich 26,5% 70,4% 3,2% 100,0%
neither rich nor poor 4,2% 90,6% 5,2% 100,0%
poor/very poor 1,4% 73,5% 25,1% 100,0%
Total 5,4% 85,9% 8,7% 100,0%
Naples
Rich/very rich 23,6% 69,1% 7,3% 100,0%
neither rich nor poor 2,6% 86,5% 10,9% 100,0%
poor/very poor 0,8% 52,7% 46,6% 100,0%
Total 3,6% 78,3% 18,1% 100,0%
Milan has always been that kind of city, which offers work and good perspective, in particular if compared with
the southern context. It‟s difficult to state if the knowledge-based economy simply represents the continuity of
the tradition, even if in other forms, or if it adds new features.
So far, it is only possible to combine this last evidence with the others in order to draw some general
observations.
Conclusions
In terms of employability Milan differs from the other two cities: as knowledge-based city it offers more
possibilities to find a qualified job, in particular in the „creative sectors‟, and good chances to improve the social
level. In Milan the job instability is concentrated among the high skilled young people, who, on the other hand,
have good chances to find a regular and well paid job.
In conclusion, it can be argued that new forms of instability and precariousness do exist, but the main social and
economic risks cannot be related only with the creative economy or, more generally, with the advanced service
economy. Even the new forms of instable jobs seem to father similar inequalities to the ones of the industrial
period. The empirical results presented in this paper suggest, in fact, that the new kinds of temporary
employment, which are strictly related to the Postindustrial economic system, are not creating more risks, but
they probably shaped differently the same social inequalities. The instable jobs, for example, seem to be risky for
low educated people and women, who were at risk also during the Fordist economic system because of low
income, the former, and scarce labour market participation, the latter. The young unskilled workers actually run
more risks of being unstable than their parents, but the more advanced the economic system is, the less they are
likely to be trapped into instability. Therefore, direct links between advanced service economy and social risks
cannot be drawn.
Consequences of economic transformation on labour market and poverty risks: comparison among Milan, Rome and Naples,
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Moreover, the evidence about the three urban areas indicate that the low class of unskilled workers have more
chances to improve their social level and economic conditions, if they live in a „creative‟ city like Milan than in
Naples, where the old forms of inequalities and workers‟ exploitation are still strong.
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