Post on 24-Feb-2018
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RAHMI YUNIARTI, ST.,MT
TEKNIK INDUSTRIUNIVERSITAS BRAWIJAYA MALANG
N LISIS KEPUTUS N
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Tujuan Instruksional Umum
Memahami konsep dasar dan paradigma permasalahan
keputusan, serta cara-cara yang digunakan untuk
memodelkan keputusan, ketidakpastian, dan preferensi
pengambil keputusan sehingga dapat menganalisisdan memilih alternatif terbaik menurut kriteria-kriteria
yang ditetapkan
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Clemen, Robert T., (1995), Making Hard
Decis ions, 2ndEdition, Duxbury Press
Holoway, Charles A. (1979), Decis ionMaking Under Uncertainty ; Models and
Choices, Prentice Hall
Skinner, David C., In t roduc t ion to Decis ion
Analysis, 2ndEdition., Probabilistic, 1999
Referensi
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INTRODUCTION Examples of decision Problems :
- In a cafetaria, you are to decide which food to choose
- In a factory, the engineering manager is consedering twodifferent construction sites for a factory expansion
Why Decision Analysis? Why not just using intuition?
# Basically we use analysis if the decision to make is a hard
decision problem. Hard decision requires hard thinking !
# Decision analysis provides structure and guidance for thinking
systematically about hard decisions.
# With decision analysis, a decision maker can take action with
confidence gained through a clear understanding about the
problem.
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Why Are Decisions Hard?
Simply because its complexity
- Thus, decision problems need to be structured
The inherent uncertainty in the situation
-Thus, important to understand the source of uncertainty and
able to assess uncertainty
The problem is multi objective in nature
- Thus, a tool is needed to provide a trade off among conf l icting
objectives The decisions are sensitive to changes of input or differences in
perspectives
- Thus, a method for sensitivity analysis is needed
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Contoh: Borda CountKompetisi mengarang lagu amatir di Slobonia dimana terdapat 4pengarang lagu dan 7 orang juri. Penilaian dilakukan dengan aturanbahwa lagu dengan kriteria yang ditetapkan mendapat nilai 4 dengannilai terkecil 1
Keputusan: lagu terbaik adalah C dengan ranking C B A D
Tetapi, muncul protes karena lagu D pengarangnya profesional yangsebenarnya tidak boleh ikut kompetisi.
Apakah keputusan pemenang tetap lagu C?
Lagu 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Total Nilai
A 1st 4th 3th 1st 4th 3th 1st 18
B 2nd 1st 4th 2nd 1st 4th 2nd 19
C 3th 2nd 1st 3th 2nd 1st 3th 20*
D 4th 3th 2nd 4th 3th 2nd 4th 13
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Contoh: Borda CountPenilaian diulang tanpa Lagu D
Keputusan: lagu terbaik adalah A dengan ranking A B C
Lagu 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Total Nilai
A 1st 3th 2nd 1st 3th 2nd 1st 15*
B 2nd 1st 3th 2nd 1st 3th 2nd 14
C 3th 2nd 1st 3th 2nd 1st 3th 13
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Decision analysis will not solve a decision
problem, nor is intended to. Its purpose is
to produce insight and promote creativityto help decision makers make better
decision. (Kenney, 1982)
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Definisi Analisis Keputusan
Keeney and Raiffa, 1976
Prescriptive approach designed for normally intelligent people
who want to think hard and systematically about some important
real problems
A decision analysis is an information source
A decision analysis should not replace a decision maker
but should support him
A decision analysis not only provide solution, but alsoprovide insight to:
- Situation - Objectives
- Uncertainty - Trade off
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Mengapa Analisis Keputusan diperlukan?
Secara psikologis manusia pada umumnya tidak memprosesinformasi dan membuat keputusan dengan cara yang tidak
konsisten
Membantu memahami permasalahan dengan lebih baik
sehingga dapat membuat keputusan yang lebih baikwalaupun tidak menjamin memberikan hasil terbaik
Memberikan petunjuk yang jelas dalam melakukan
perancangan penyelesaianpermasalahan real (kompleks)
secara sistematis
Untuk menyesuaikan terhadap tindakan yang diambil
sebelumnya agar keputusan tersebut benar-benar tepat
untuk dijalankan (memperbaiki kualitaskeputusan)
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An Example
Imagine that you are a manager in a company. You have
been working there for about 10 years. Your career has
been pretty good but later you feel that there is little
opportunity for promotion and the situation is boring. You
have told this to a friend of you. He suggested to you to
resign and work on your own as a consultant. Your wife
however reject that idea. She argued that it is already a good
job with a good pay you are happy with a family staying in a
relatively large and nice house. If you were that manager
what is your decision? Please analyse your decision
problem.
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The Process of Decision Analysis
1. Identify the problem
2. Identify objectives and alternatives
3. Decompose and model problem : Structure the problem
Model uncertainty
Model preferences
4. Choose the best alternative
5. Do sensitivity analysis
6. If no further analysis is required, implement the
choosen alternative
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Proses Analisis Keputusan (1)
1. Identifikasi Permasalahan
Seluruh aspek harus mendapat perhatian untukdiidentifikasi
Pemahaman yang baik terhadap permasalahanseringkali menyatakan permasalahan real yangmungkin tersembunyi
Seringkali sulit untuk dilaksanakan dengan baik
2. Identifikasi Tujuan dan Alternatif
Menentukan tujuan yang akan dicapai
Mengembangkan alternatif untuk pemecahanmasalahnya
Kunci keberhasilan Analisis Keputusan pada langkahini
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Elements of Decisions Structure
The decision to be made
The possible course of action
(alternatives) The possible outcomes that can result
The likelihood of those outcomes
Cost and benefits to be derived fromthose outcomes
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Kesimpulan
Analisis keputusan untuk membantu
seorang decision maker berpikir secara
sistematis tentang permasalahan yangkompleks dan untuk meningkatkan
kualitas keputusan yang dihasilkan