Yuan: Will It Be a Global Reserve Currency

Within the Next Decade?

Written Assignment by: Cheisy Zefanya (NIM: 1401088375) Ruben Sadhu (NIM: 1401088980)

BINUS INTERNATIONAL UNIVERSITY

JAKARTA 2012

1

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

To understand the global economic condition, it is important to look at the major

players of world economy through several aspects. With the current crisis happening in the

United States (US) and European Union (EU), it is expected that the power of the West is

declining. Additionally, China’s power is rising due to its rapid growth, and predicted to

replace the stance of US and EU as superpowers. A superpower is usually defined by the

usage of its currency as the global reserve currency. These shifts in the global economic

condition (the fall of the West and the rise of China) make it important to discover whether or

not China’s Yuan will replace US Dollar and EU’s Euro as global reserve currency,

considering the dependency of the world towards China’s exports

2

Table of Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ........................................................................................................ 1

List of Figures ............................................................................................................................. 2

Chapter 1 Introduction ................................................................................................................ 3

Chapter 2 Background Theories ................................................................................................ 5

2.1: Exchange Rates ............................................................................................................... 5

2.2: Current Account .............................................................................................................. 6

2.3: Market and Planned Economies ..................................................................................... 6

2.4: Monetary Policy .............................................................................................................. 6

2.5: Export Restrictions ......................................................................................................... 7

Chapter 3 Findings ..................................................................................................................... 8

3.1: Economic Development of China, US, and EU .............................................................. 8

3.2: Exchange Rate of China, US, and EU .......................................................................... 11

3.3: Trade: China and the US and EU.................................................................................. 12

3.4: China’s Strategy in Becoming a World Leader ............................................................ 13

3.4.1: Maintaining Trade Surplus .................................................................................... 13

3.4.2: Keeping USD and Euro Reserves .......................................................................... 14

Chapter 4 Analyses ................................................................................................................... 15

4.1: China’s Falling Rate of Growth .................................................................................... 15

4.2: The Pressure to Appreciate China’s Yuan .................................................................... 16

4.3: China is Highly Dependent on Exports ........................................................................ 17

4.4: China Is Struggling to Reach Open Market Economy ................................................. 18

4.4: The Failure of China’s Strategies ................................................................................. 18

Chapter 5 Conclusion ................................................................................................................ 20

References ................................................................................................................................. 21

List of Figures

Figure 1: Top 20 exporters in 2009............................................................................................ 8

Figure 2: Economic Growth Rate of China, EU, and US ........................................................ 10

Figure 3: Prediction of Growth Rate (China, EU, and US) ..................................................... 11

Figure 4: China's Export Activities to EU and US .................................................................. 12

Figure 5: Trade Imbalances Between China and US ............................................................... 14

Figure 6: History and Prediction of GDP ( China, EU, US) .................................................... 16

3

Chapter 1

Introduction

China, an Eastern nation with remarkable growth rate, is predicted to replace the

power of the West in global economy by making its Yuan a global reserve currency. Global

reserve currency is defined as a main tradable currency in the world trade, and main reserves

of countries (EconMatters, 2010). This prediction might sound definite especially because

Western countries such as United States (US) and European Union (EU) started to crumble

due to a series of failed economic decisions. While China, with its rapid growth during the

last decade, added with unique trade and exchange rate policies, shows promising progress in

paving its way to lead the economy of the world, and making its Yuan a global reserve

currency. Nevertheless, it is important to not be deluded by the current situation, but to also

consider history and future predictions that surround China.

After a history of ups and downs in its economic activities, today China is regaining

back its glory from the past. A country that was once the most developed economies in the

world, failed and went under the radar, is now back on its way in becoming a world’s leader

once again. The Western world, on the other hand, started from the bottom of economic

competition. They began to have their share as the world leader much later after China’s

glory days. Until recently, technology and machinery found and employed in the Western

world positioned US and EU as leaders of economic developments, emphasized also by its

“openness” towards international trading, competitiveness, and capitalism, leaving China

with its no-trade policy behind.

Today, however, there is another shift in world economy’s condition. China is back as

one of the most respected economies of the world. China’s takeover can be seen from its

contribution to the world GDP that kept on increasing since 2005 to 2011 (The Conference

4

Board, 2012), higher than the EU since 1996, and the US since 2006. This trend of growth

from China led many parties into predicting that Yuan, China’s currency, will replace the

power that Euro and USD have right now as the world currency.

However, many economists have argued that this is not the case for the future; that

China will once again go through a downfall despite its rapid growth in the last decade (The

Conference Board, 2012). To predict whether or not China with its Yuan will become the

world’s superpower within a decade, it is important to look at the relationship between China

with the US and EU, as these three nations are currently the leaders of world market. Through

background theories, data, and analyses that link theories with the empirical data, this essay

will reveal the possibilities of China’s Yuan in becoming a world’s currency within a decade

from now.

5

Chapter 2

Background Theories

2.1: Exchange Rates

There are two types of exchange rate system in today’s economy: floating and fixed.

Floating exchange rate means the value of one country’s currency is determined solely on

invisible-hand or market activities, one in which central banks do not intervene in the foreign

exchange market to fix rates. (Krugman, Obstfeld, & Melitz, 2012). Explained by simple

demand-supply theories, when a currency is more demanded against another, its “price” will

increase; in other words, it will appreciate.

On the contrary, fixed exchange rate system allows a currency’s value to be of a

certain percentage of another (Krugman, Obstfeld, & Melitz, 2012). Meaning, one currency’s

value is pegged to a base country’s currency. For example, with fixed exchange rate system,

9000 Indonesian Rupiah will always be equivalent to 1 US Dollar regardless of the market’s

activities. However, most countries do not go for both extremes. US, for instance, manages

the float of its currency, meaning government intervenes in manipulating the value of

currency through either monetary or fiscal policies. While China, although using fixed

exchange rate in the past, has reformed to using strictly managed floating, allowing its Yuan

to float in a very small amount (2% band) against US Dollar, Euro, and Yen. (Goldstein,

2009)

Unlike the changes that happen to small country’s currency, the float of big

economies’ currencies has effects on the world economy. Due to the large number of trade

partners that large economies usually have, the impact of their currency fluctuation is likely

to reach many other countries in the world, thus shifting the world economy as a whole

(Krugman, Obstfeld, & Melitz, 2012).

6

2.2: Current Account

Current account is one of the primary components in the Balance of Payment of a

country. The ideal situation requires current account to be balanced with capital account. This

current account shows the value of a country’s net foreign trade. Basically, it is the amount of

net exports of goods and services to foreigners. (Krugman, Obstfeld, & Melitz, 2012). A

trade surplus shows “positive net foreign trade”, meaning there is more trade outflow than

inflow activities within a nation. A trade deficit is the opposite. In later chapters, this essay

will discuss the implications of manipulation of current account to the growth of China.

2.3: Market and Planned Economies

Planned economy, or mostly known as centralized economy, is an economic system

that gives the government of a given country total control over the economic activity and

decisions in that country. In the past, China adopted planned economy system. In contrast,

market economy, or usually called capitalistic economy, is an economy in which all the

economic planning, resources allocating, decision making, and price level are made by the

communal actions of individuals or private businesses seeking their own benefits (Mankiw,

Quah, & Wilson, 2008). Centralization and decentralization economy system will have a

different impact on the economy condition. Chapter 3 of this essay will discuss economic

developments of China, US, and EU, through the sort of economic systems that those three

economic powerhouses chose in order to achieve optimum economic condition.

2.4: Monetary Policy

Monetary policy is one macroeconomic policy employed by government to control

the economy. Expansionary monetary policy is when government tries to increase GDP of a

country by reducing interest rate. Reduction of interest rate means the gains from saving is

7

low, and the cost of loans is low as well (Mankiw, Quah, & Wilson, 2008). As savings

become less appealing, people of a country are expected to distribute more of its income in

consumption. Meanwhile, low cost of loan will result in an “easy” borrowing of money that

can be used to finance investments. The components of GDP include consumption,

investment, government spending, and net exports. A hike in the consumption and investment

is supposed to improve GDP of a nation; expansionary monetary policy is usually applied

when a country is facing recession. When a country is facing inflation, or an increase in the

average price level, the deflationary monetary policy is applied to minimize consumption.

The process is the exact opposite of expansionary monetary policy explained above. The

employment of China’s monetary policy affects its domestic economic climate, which will

then be discussed further in Chapter 3 and Chapter 4.

2.5: Export Restrictions

Government of a given country will attempt to make sure that when they are

participating in international commerce activity, the country would gain as much as they

feasibly can and lose as little as possible. Governments of both trading countries would prefer

deals and transaction processes which will make both countries better off. Thus, when a

trade activity is starting to endanger the economic climate and development of a nation, its

government will impose some trade restrictions to protect the economy from losing. Import

tariff is one of the trade policies that are generally used by governments in the world today.

Import tariff is a tax levied on goods coming in from a foreign country (Mankiw,

Quah, & Wilson, 2008). By applying tariff for imported goods, its price will increase, making

domestic producers’ price more competitive in the domestic market. Chapter 3 will further

demonstrate a particular possible trade restriction that US would imply on their trade with

China, and how it affects the chance of Yuan to become a global reserve currency

8

Chapter 3

Findings

3.1: Economic Development of China, US, and EU

In the beginning of 1950’s, China adapted Soviet-style central planning economy, in

which every private and local business was controlled by the government. Centralization

limits foreign trade and foreign investment, which proved to be a costly mistake to China’s

economic transformation. (Chow, 2002) The gap between China and more advance countries

widened, as China desperately tried to compete with the revolution and modernization of

develop countries by producing everything by itself instead of focusing on products with

comparative advantage and trading with other countries to complete its needs effectively. It is

not until the late 1970’s that China changed its economic structure from the centrally planned

system into a market-oriented one (McKinnon, 2005), leading the country to be one of the

major global economy contributors until present day, notably as the world biggest exporter in

2009.

Figure 1: Top 20 exporters in 2009

Source: www.gizmag.com

Before the reform, China’s growth rate was never above the level of 6% with extreme

fluctuations over the years. The liberalization of China, mostly achieved by making use of its

human capital abundance (increasing its labor productivity), is proven to have brought

9

dramatic change for China. Its growth rate increased to the average level of 9%, with more

stable fluctuation than pre-open market era. According to World Bank Report, with growth

rate over 10.7 % between 1990-1999, China was one of the fastest growing economies in the

world during the modern era. The next chapter will discuss China’s growth, along with

China’s strategy and policies to compete with the developed countries to be a global economy

giants.

Until present day, EU and US still hold the grip as the world largest economic force,

with combine GDP of over $30.4 billion in 2011. They represent the power of the western

world. EU and US have been a role model in terms of economic structure and integration.

Thus, every economic policy engaged by these powerhouses, would affect the global

economy as a whole.

US have the largest and most technologically powerful economy in the world as a

single country, while EU rank number 1 as a union. (Central Intelligence Agency, 2010).

With GDP of $48, 100 per capita, these market-oriented economies have led the global

economy activity with comparative advantage in technology and entrepreneurial skills.

Traced back from 1950’s, the start of the modern era; US had grown substantially in their

economic and population sectors. The reasons behind US successful economic strategy lays

on several reason; US business firms enjoyed a great degree of flexibility in making decisions

to expand capital plant, to reduce excess workforce, and to develop new products. However,

global economic downturn, sub-prime mortgage catastrophe, investment bank failures, tight

credit, and sinking home prices drive US into an economic recession in 2008 (Central

Intelligence Agency, 2010). Therefore, pressure is mounting on US on maintaining their

economic stability.

EU is an integrated economical and political partnership consisting of 27 European

countries. EU was established on the post-Second World War era with the vision of creating a

10

more cooperative economic condition within the European region and to reduce internal and

external conflict within and between the member countries (BBC News Business, 2012). The

single-market policy, the economic engine of EU, enables member countries to move

products, services, money, and labor freely. This approaches and strategy taken by EU has

proven to be very successful in elevating the EU countries living standard and constructing a

strong economic condition by having a single currency, the Euro. Unfortunately, during the

late 2000’s until present time, EU is hit with a severe debt crisis among the member nations,

started with the excessive budget deficit of Greece discovered in 2009, which reached 300

Billion Euros or 113% of its GDP (Euro standards is 60%) (BBC News Business, 2012).

This setback also dragged other member countries including Spain, Italy, Ireland, and

Portugal to budget deficit problem because these countries are highly interdependent in terms

of trade. Rating Agencies started to downgrade EU member countries bank and government

debt as more and more member countries declared their excessive budget deficit. As a result,

burden on EU to bailout their member’s debts raises significantly.

Currently, China’s growth rate is much higher than EU and US, as seen in the graph

below: Figure 2: Economic Growth Rate of China, EU, and US

Source : www.indexmundi.com

Nonetheless, future prediction of the global economic outlook shows that US and EU will be

able to regain their power with a stable growth rate (The Conference Board, 2012). US

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2004 2006 2008 2010

GD

P G

row

th R

ate

Year

Economic Growth Rate

US

CHINA

EU

11

citizens’ confidence started to recover after the 2008 shock; additionally, the negative growth

in housing market have met a solution in 2012 and is likely to even contribute for a small plus

(Kiplinger, 2012). The GDP of EU’s countries are expected to return to pre-crisis amount,

with the help of increasing productivity by re-employing skilled senior labors, boosting

public sectors, and winning in tradable goods by taking advantage of its technologies

(Roxburgh & Jan, 2011). In contrary, China’s growth rate is expected to slow down due to

exhaustion of resources, demands to increase wages, reluctance to consume, and pressures to

appreciate Yuan (Maximus, 2011).

Figure 3: Prediction of Growth Rate (China, EU, and US)

Source: www.conference-board.org

3.2: Exchange Rate of China, US, and EU

The exchange rate of China’s currency, the Yuan, is an essential part on China’s

economic development (Leonhardt, 2009). China’s new economic regime, traced back to

1978, had emphasized on the exchange rate of China, which was pegged to US dollar, and

would not change regardless of market activities. Until July 2005, China’s Yuan had been

successfully fixed at 8.28 Yuan per one USD within a narrow range of plus minus of 0.3 %

(McKinnon, 2005).

12

Afterwards, pressure from US to appreciate Yuan due to severely negative trade

deficit for the US, which means that they consumed too much and sold too little, had sent

China hanging on the edge. US pressured China by threatening to put an import tariff of

27.5% on China’s goods coming in, that predictably would decrease the consumption of

China’s goods by the US (McKinnon, 2005). As a result, China agreed to allow greater

flexibility for the Yuan against the basket of currencies to avoid US’ retaliation.

3.3: Trade: China and the US and EU

The goal behind relating China, US, and EU, besides their status as the world

economic leaders, is that these 3 parties are inevitably interdependent to one another. China,

as the world biggest exporter in 2010 as mentioned earlier, relies much on US and EU as its

trading partners, because both parties are the two largest importers of China’s goods. If trade

activities declined, China would be in danger of losing almost 35 % of its revenue from

export activity, which is the highest contributor to China’s GDP. In the spirit of becoming a

market economy, China did encourage foreign direct investment (FDI), but the number of

industries able to do this is very limited to industries that are not affecting China’s export-led

growth significantly (Loesekrug-Pietri, 2012).

Figure 4: China's Export Activities to EU and US

Source : student

0,0

100,0

200,0

300,0

400,0

1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

Am

ou

nt

(b

illio

ns

of

USD

)

year

China's Trade Activities

Export US

Export EU

13

EU relies on China because it needs China’s low-priced goods and resources. EU is

also increasing its foreign direct investment in China, which is already at the level of 20% of

China’s total FDI, mostly to locate production facilities to take advantage of several facilities

such as lower wage rates and higher labor productivity, as well as environmental conditions.

US depends on China in terms of fulfilling the demand of its highly consumptive inhabitants.

China can provide US with cheap goods, which is highly suitable for the US market, which is

undergoing recession. While US is importing a lot of goods from China, it is creating a trade

imbalance in a way that China is exporting much more than it imports from the US.

3.4: China’s Strategy in Becoming a World Leader

3.4.1: Maintaining Trade Surplus

China realized that it cannot compete with the West in terms of productions that

require high technology; therefore, China relies on the productions of cheap goods to attract

foreign trade partners (Leonhardt, 2009). The West, with its aggressive production and

consumption, is importing a lot from China, which has competency in lowering cost of

productions and thus selling lower-priced goods. Knowing US and EU’s tendency to

consume, China decided to focus on export-led growth. This decision to maintain trade

surplus, or to produce exports more than it imports, resulted in a high growth rate over the

last two decades for China. While the people of US and EU consume too much, the people of

China consume too little, resulting in economic imbalances (Trachtman, 2011). Meaning, the

export of China is much higher than its imports, leading to extreme trade surplus.

14

Figure 5: Trade Imbalances Between China and US

source : students

3.4.2: Keeping USD and Euro Reserves

Maintaining trade surplus for China has brought many benefits for the country on

their run to be a global economic leader. China’s excessive trade surplus against the US, led

the country to balance it with high investment on capital account, by buying US treasury

bonds, thus holding a high amount of USD. This has been a crucial factor as a part of their

advantage in trading with US. Holding US bonds could give China power to dump it in the

foreign exchange market, weakening the value of USD (Leonhardt, 2009).

0,0

100,0

200,0

300,0

400,0

1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

Am

ou

nt

(bill

ion

s o

f U

SD)

year

US-China's Export-Import Activities

Export

Import

15

Chapter 4

Analyses

According to US Treasury (EconMatters, 2010), to become a global reserve currency,

the characteristics to fulfill are:

the size of the domestic economy

the importance of the economy in international trade

the size, depth, and openness of financial markets

the convertibility of the currency

the use of the currency as a currency peg

correct domestic macroeconomic policies

This chapter will analyze, using the theories explained in Chapter 2 and data provided in

Chapter 3, China’s Yuan’s chance in becoming a global reserve currency within a decade.

4.1: China’s Falling Rate of Growth

As mentioned in 3.1, China went through a significant period of growth during the

last twenty years due to its low exchange rate that made its products more competitive in the

world market (Higgins & Klitgaard, 2011). Nevertheless, this trend is unlikely to continue for

the next twenty years. As China is growing, its economy became more difficult to manage.

China is forced to decelerate its growth because productivity slows down as there are

demands to increase wage and reluctance to invest due to the highly competitive price (Wei,

2010). The country went through steep period of growth that used up its resources without

having the chance to preserve some of it (AFP, 2012). For now, Yuan does not have the

required “stability and sustainability” that a global reserve currency is required to possess,

which is to continuously grow in the long term.

16

Additionally, as China is slowing down, US and EU are predicted to recover their low

growth rate (The Conference Board, 2012). Although US and EU’s growth rates were small

compared to Yuan, the current real GDP that EU and US have are much higher. For one to

become a global reserve currency it has to be important for international trade; however,

even though Yuan is catching up, it will not surpass EU and US’s importance in terms of the

size of economy, at least until the year 2025.

Figure 6: History and Prediction of GDP (China, EU, US)

Source : students

4.2: The Pressure to Appreciate China’s Yuan

China relies on its low-priced export as the highest contributor of its GDP growth

(Leonhardt, 2009). Thus, a small change in currency will have high impact on China’s

economic condition. Although Yuan has very little floating activities, a pressure to appreciate

Yuan could bring an even more dangerous problem than fluctuating exchange rate

(McKinnon, China’s New Exchange Rate Policy: Will China, 2005). This is because whether

or not Yuan will increase, is determined by the pressures from other parties outside China,

instead of by natural market forces, making Yuan highly volatile towards the decision of its

export consumers.

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

-20

16

20

17

-20

25

GD

P (

in U

SD)

year

GDP of China, US, EU

US

EU

China

17

Yuan is managed to float along with both USD and Euro, China’s main trading

partner (Wang, 2010). The recent US threat to impose extremely high tariff on China’s

product (McKinnon, China’s New Exchange Rate Policy: Will China, 2005) unless Yuan is

appreciated shows how vulnerable China is in the world currency market. Once there is

another pressure to revalue the Yuan, its value will be even higher, eliminating China’s

competency growth which is to keep its products low-priced. This means China could lose its

chance to become the new powerhouse in the world economy. Despite having this

knowledge, China appreciated its Yuan (Wang, 2010) because China is still a follower of the

West. Its economy is not sophisticated enough to become a decision-maker. In a way, Yuan is

still “pegged” to the USD and Euro, as its value is always affected by the pressures and

activities of both Euro and USD. So, despite its rapid growth, China’s Yuan does not have

enough power to become a main reserve as it is incapable to be used as a currency peg.

4.3: China is Highly Dependent on Exports

China relies heavily on the consumptive nature of the West (Leonhardt, 2009). As

mentioned before, China’s economy’s strength relies on the export industries. Its main

trading partners include the EU and US, which is very keen in producing and consuming, the

opposite of China’s nature to save (Andrew Leung International Consultants, 2011). Today,

with its low domestic consumption but high export consumption, China’s domestic economy

is not mature enough to withstand protectionism from its trading partners. Thus, a trade

restriction from the West will send China’s economy to a downfall. The recent case is the

pressure to revalue Yuan which exposed how China felt threatened by the idea of high tariff

from its trading partners. China’s dependency on export to the West reveals China’s weak

domestic economy, a criterion of being a global reserve currency that it cannot fulfill.

18

4.4: China Is Struggling to Reach Open Market Economy

Although it is on its way to open market economy after a history of planned economy

system, China’s government is reluctant to let China be fully an open market (McKinnon,

China’s New Exchange Rate Policy: Will China, 2005). For Yuan to become a global reserve

currency, it must be fully convertible, or traded freely in the market. However, judging from

the strategy employed by China this far, it is unlikely that the government of China will let its

Yuan float freely, as its competency still relies on the managed low exchange rate

(Leonhardt, 2009). The tight control over Yuan by the Chinese government will hinder the

process of Yuan being accepted as a global reserve currency, as market will be reluctant to

trade in currency which fluctuation relies on the hands of several policymakers.

FDI in China is highly limited; in order for Yuan to be a global reserve currency, it

must have the openness of financial market, thus to be fully convertible in the capital account

as well. However, the Chinese government’s policy that allows China’s citizens to invest

overseas is highly limited and is still on trial basis (Shanghai Daily, 2011). Until the people of

China are granted the full right to invest overseas, and FDI is welcomed more freely, Yuan

will not have the openness of financial market and thus will not be a global reserve currency.

4.4: The Failure of China’s Strategies

First, China’s strategy to keep its trade surplus high means that its domestic

consumption is extremely low (Leonhardt, 2009). Industries in China are encouraged to

export, and not to sell domestically (Maximus, 2011). China will lose its image as a strong

country if there is a small fall in net export because its domestic consumption is not showing

GDP growth, and its investment is highly centralized in the export sectors. In short, China’s

domestic economy is weak.

19

By holding US reserves, China is expecting high return, but it turned out that US bond

return is not profitable because US fails to correct its current account deficit (Leonhardt,

2009). One side of argument may say that China is a powerful economy because it can dump

its USD reserve, pushing USD value down, and thus take over US’s position as the world

leader. However, it is important to remember that China depends on its exports to the West;

dumping USD and driving the price of USD down will only make China’s products

expensive in the eyes of its main trade partner, USA (The Associated Press, 2011). It is

obvious that China does play a major role in the world economy, but its importance is still

under the power of the West.

The growth of China led to a domestic inflation (McKinnon, 2005). The people of

China are already very reluctant to consume and prefer to save instead, because of the shock

resulted from closing down government-owned industries and elimination of cradle-to-grave

benefits during the transition to open economic era (Leonhardt, 2009). To prevent inflation,

government would have to impose monetary policy by increase interest rate, decreasing

money circulating in the market. Judging from the nature of China’s people who are not

consumptive, a macroeconomic decision to decrease consumption even more weakens

China’s domestic economic activities.

20

Chapter 5

Conclusion

China’s remarkable growth is making China an important contributor in affecting

global economic climate. This condition created a scare among the West, especially US and

EU which are the current leaders of the economy today, especially burdened by the crisis in

the West, making growth rate highly imbalance. Furthermore, China managed to take

advantage of the West’s consumptive behavior by focusing on export-led growth. Supported

by China’s low exchange rate, holding of reserves and maintenance of trade surplus seem to

be a correct decision resulting in China’s rapid growth. This led to many beliefs that Chinese

Yuan will replace USD and Euro as global reserve currency. Nonetheless, China’s falling rate

growth due to its exhaustion of resources and disability to manage an expanding economy;

vulnerability to the West’s pressure of appreciating Yuan; highly limited “openness” in this

globalised trade climate; and failure of macroeconomic policies which weakens domestic

economy, explained in detail in chapter 4 became roadblocks that will not make China’s

Yuan a global reserve currency within the next decade.

21

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