Turkey is on the path to Black Sea hegemony discuss. (2014)

School of Humanities

MA in Black Sea Cultural Studies

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Student ID: 2201130027 Intake: February 2014

Subject:EU and the Black Sea states.

Title of work:Turkey is on the path to Black Sea hegemony. Discuss.

Course leader:Dr. Filippos Proedrou

Submission date: 9 May 2014

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Date: 9 May 2014.

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Turkey is on the path to Black Sea hegemony. Discuss.

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Turkey is on the path to Black Sea hegemony.Discuss.

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http://www.salon.com/2012/12/03/russia_turkey_downplay_syria_differences/


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Contents:

Abstract

Introduction

Domestic Challenges of Turkey

RegimeKurdish issue

Global Challenges of Turkey:

EUEastern and South-Eastern EuropeGreece/CyprusCentral Asia and CaucasusRussia

Critical evaluation/Conclusions


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Introduction:During the 21st century attention from international community towards

Turkey is high. Turkey is going back and forth or to be more literate forth and back.

The past years, Turkey has earned credits from the international community for its

dynamic economics, its energetic and confident diplomacy, and its attempts to

confront some of its crucial foreign policy issues2. Hillary Clinton was the one who

stated that Turkey is one of seven rising powers with which the United States will

actively collaborate to resolve global problems.3 That opinion has been reversed

by the Obama government the last months undermining Turkey’s position4.

Furthermore, Turkey has not yet become the global, or even regional, player that

its government declares it to be5. Turkey has to face a variety of perplexed global

and domestic challenges. Furthermore its role in global and regional politics is still

overshadowed by the more powerful Russia. The backwardness that has

characterized Turkey’s regime lately has undermined its previous efforts for

modernization and westernization. The case for the Black Sea region is also such:

every attempt for Turkey to lead is overlapped by Russia’s advantageous

condition. In addition, the general appreciation is that opportunities for Turkey in

� �� -��. �� /�� 0�� 1#�� ,' 2�� (��' ‘’Turkey’s transformers, The AKP sees big’’ 3��#�� 4' ��"��56�5��%�#��,%��% ��%&%#��%�� 789:; <=>?@AB9C;' ‘’Άφαντη η Τουρκία στην Ουκρανική κρίση’’' DBEF>:; ��' ��#��"��"��#��"%��4� ��6 0�� 1#�� ,' 2�� (��' ‘’Turkey’s transformers, The AKP sees big’’ 3��#�� 4' ��"��56�5��%�#��,%��% ��%&%#��%��

http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/65464/morton-abramowitz-and-henri-j-barkey/turkeys-transformers

http://elladasimera.blogspot.gr/2014/03/blog-post_1239.html



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the Black Sea region were lost due to strategic -high politics- overdose which are

directly connected to the multi-frontal challenges that Turkey had to face at the

same time plus the Russian dominance in the region.

Domestic challenges:The domestic challenges of Turkey are namely two: the unstable, self

contradictory regime prone to military intervention and the Kurdish issue. Tensions

and instability between the Islamic pro-European governments and the Kemalist

pro-nationalist/modernist military has always been a pole of friction of Turkish

political life. So far -accounting four military coups6 - the military was the ‘’winner’’

while governments finally succumbed to its will. On February 2010 the police

arrested 49 military officers over suspected coup plot, an unprecedented event7.

Another landmark event is the fact that on May 2010 the Turkish parliament

approved of a constitutional reform package- a radical package that would give

politicians greater power to appoint judges and make it harder to shut down

political parties8. On the contrary backwardness on human and civil rights

protection is still escalating, causing massive protests. On 2007 the peaceful

‘’Republic protests’’ took place where people demonstrated for the promotion of

state secularism and democracy. More recently from May 2013 to present, bloody

riots -with 119 deaths and at least 8,000 injured people- took place in 78 out of 81

Turkish provinces. The demonstrations were held by a determined pro-Western

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http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE61Q19K20100227

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/8536216.stm

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/mar/22/turkey-constitutional-reform-judges

http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/turkish-police-admits-suicides-denies-link-to-gezi-park-protests.aspx?pageID=238&nID=48534&NewsCatID=341

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-22753418

http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/policeman-dies-after-falling-off-bridge-during-protests-in-southern-turkey--.aspx?pageID=238&nID=48318&NewsCatID=341


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minority10 of the population. But still the society is severely divided. The

demands11 among others were freedom of speech without experiencing fear,

arrest or torture, free media, right to assembly, end of police violence.

In addition to these, the Kurdish issue has always been a burden for the

Turkish politicians. Ethnic Kurds comprise a full fifth of Turkey’s population. After

the 1980 military coup, Turkey "Turkified": It banned the Kurdish language,

imposed new Turkish place names, and famously declared that Kurds were

actually "mountain Turks." Its government has since abandoned this extreme form

of forced assimilation. The Kurdistan Workers' Party12, has fought a brutal 25-year

battle for Kurdish independence13.14 An interesting progress has been made in

that issue. On September 2010 the Turkish President Abdullah Gul broke a

long-standing national taboo: He called the remote village of Guroymak by its

Kurdish name, Norshin15. The Kurdish issue though remains unsolved and is

prone to secessionism.

Global challenges:EU:

Turkey's application to accede to the European Union was made on 14

April 1987. It has been an associate member of the European Union (EU) since

1992 and its predecessors since 1963. After the ten founding members, Turkey

was one of the first countries to become a member of the Council of Europe in

1949, and was also a founding member of OECD16 in 1961, OSCE17 in 1973

�� W��"�� " �"�� 6XY )�� ' ‘’Turkey’s elections may ironically have dealt a blowto Democracy’’' � L��' �� 0�� *�� 0��,' ‘’Refusing oppression, Turkish protesters release a list of demands.’’' -��#�' � R�� %"�,�%�� %��%��%�� #�� QQ�� V�� 3�� ' ‘’Is Turkey renaming Istanbul, Constantinople?’’' � )��#��' ��4 ��"��4��4��"��#�� 1��" � )��"��!� �� Z! If the American Congress accuses the Turkey of genocide against theArmenians, the Kurds will have a stronger arguement for autonomy’’, )��"��' ‘’Turkey fears Kurds, notArmenians.’’ ' /��" ��G 1�� [��\� � ��0��-R�51�� 6 V�� 3�� ' ‘’Is Turkey renaming Istanbul, Constantinople?’’' � )��#��' ��4 ��"��4��4��"��#��5 [�"��,�� /�%�� 3� ��G [�"��,�� )�� /�%��

http://www.dailydot.com/news/occupy-gezi-turkish-protest-taksim-demands/

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2009/09/04/is_turkey_renaming_istanbul_constantinople

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/IJ16Ak03.html



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and is a part of the "Western Europe"18 branch of the United Nations. Turkey

signed a Customs Union agreement with the EU in 1995 and was officially

recognised as a candidate for full membership on 1999, at the Helsinki summit of

the European Council19. Negotiations were started on 2005.20 The membership

bid has become a major controversy of the ongoing enlargement of the European

Union21. Still Turkey has a long way before acquiring full membership and some of

the issues as indicated by the EU report22 that Turkey has to work on are:

Political dialogue Democracy and the rule of law Public administration Judiciary system Corruption Human rights/torture/ill treatment Freedom of expression-religion Minority rights Cyprus

Furthermore, the paradox of Turkey remains: the more Turkey adopts to

Europeanization-globalization the more Islamic it becomes.

E and S/E Europe:Turkey pursued also a more active policy in the Balkans since 1989

but it failed to carry out its high politics23 as in other regions of interest and had

to withdraw. Its policy in Kosovo has been very much in line with the Western

policy, supporting territorial integrity, despite its religious and cultural affiliation

with Albanians24. It has a special interest in Kosovo, Bulgaria and Romania

because of the existence of a sizable Turkish minority25 and in Moldova because

of the Turkic speaking Gagauz. Its affiliation in the Balkans can be also interpreted

in terms of religion since there is sizeable Muslim population in Albania, Kosovo,

�H ]�� [ �� L�� W]�[LY�4 12 December 1999�� 3 October 2005�� "��1�� O�� %��+��"��"��S��^��+��^��^/�\�_��U�"T��U��T6��3/�565�� 2�� Z’Balkans by the end of Cold War’’, ' ��,�,�' 1 ��' �44� �" �� Q ��,�� `�' \�� -�[�' \��#�� *�)’The future of Turkish-Western relations: towards a strategicplan’’,�' �� " �H�6 1#� ��'�� '�� ,��

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accession_of_Turkey_to_the_European_Union

http://eur-lex.europa.eu/smartapi/cgi/sga_doc?smartapi!celexplus!prod!CELEXnumdoc&lg=en&numdoc=504DC0656


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F.Y.R.O.M and Bosnia-Herzegovina.

Greece/Cyprus:A lot of issues remain unsolved but efforts for peaceful solutions and

neighbouring are being made since Turkey acquired the status of candidate EU

member. The so called ‘’Davutoglou Doctrine’’ for ‘’zero conflicts with

neighbours’’26 is widely known. Turkey sets on table 11 unresolved issues and

Greece 1827. Concerning Cyprus problem, Turkey due to its EU candidacy

accepted that there is an issue while before the issue was thought on part of

Turkey to be solved with the invasion of 1974. Another, interesting development in

Greek-Turkish relation was the May 2010 visit by T. Erdogan which is considered

a landmark for Greek-Turkish relations28.

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Central Asia-Caucasus:The general appreciation is that opportunities for Turkey in the

regions were lost due to strategic- high politics overdose. Furthermore in the case

of central Asia Turkey overestimated its cultural and linguistic affinity29 having at

the same time several domestic problems to face. Turkey also lacked the

economic means to provide large scale economic assistance and investment in

the region. Serious security concerns from Syria-Iraq were the real problem. In

Caucasus region though progress has been achieved. Turkey and Georgia

launched a joint initiative to create a ‘’South Caucasus Stability Pact’’30. Turkey

and Armenia signed two protocols31, with a view to opening a new chapter in

bilateral ties, as well as improving the troubled relations between Turks and

Armenians in general32. The international community though accuses Turkey of

genocide against the Armenians33 34. The Shanghai Cooperation Organization

(SCO) in Beijing in 2012 designating Turkey as a formal partner of the

organization is another sign of recognition of Turkey’s growing influence in Central

and South Asia.35 However, Turkey would not have been designated a dialogue

partner had it not been for Russia’s consent.36 Additionally, Turkey after the

dissolution of the Soviet Union initiated the BSEC37 with the aim to lead the new

order of the region but Russia’s participation meant that Turkey would once more

be just a walkon in the political theatre.

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http://www.theguardian.com/world/2010/may/13/turkey-greece-crisis-erdogan-visit

http://www.insightturkey.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=129&Itemid=58#idiz


http://www.silkroadstudies.org/new/inside/turkey/2012/120709B.html

http://www.turkeyanalyst.org

http://www.bsec-organization.org/Pages/homepage.aspx


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Russia:There has been a change of balance and improved relationship since

the end of cold war. The Turkish sympathy for Chechens, Nagorno-Karabah, the

energy issue, the Russian sale of S-300 missiles to Cyprus and Russia’s attitude

towards the Kurdish insurrection have been a source of friction for years38. On

May 2010 a high level visit by the Russian President to Turkey saw the signing of

numerous deals while Turkish support for all its major oil, gas and nuclear projects

was officially announced39. Turkey, in addition, established a strategic

partnership with Russia, with a visa-free regime and ambitious trade and

investment plans , including the construction of new pipelines and nuclear

energy facilities40. Despite the improved relations Russia and Turkey will always

look with suspicion to each other. A glance at their historical enmity which ended

up in wars for several times is one of the major justifications. Furthermore, one

must not forget the overlapping interests of the two states especially in the

Balkans, the Black Sea and in Asia.

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http://www.ericwalberg.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=222

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSLDE60C2H820100113

http://www.activistpost.com/2010/10/turkey-and-russia-defy-americas.html


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To focus on the Black Sea region, Russia is the main energy supplier.

Especially as far as gas is concerned, it is of major geopolitical value since it can

only be cheaply transported through pipelines, that most of them are owned or

controlled by Moscow. With the exception of Azerbaijan that produces and exports

energy, Russian energy firms are able to manipulate the internal political situation

by favoring specific local businesses or politicians.43 For Turkey the operation of

BTC44 pipeline since 2005 was a huge political and economical success, since it

provided a way out of the Russian energy monopoly45 from Azerbaijan through

Georgia and Turkey. This, however, did not prevent Russia from being still the

principal energy supplier, especially in gas.46

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http://www.css.ethz.ch/publications/pdfs/RAD-41.pdf


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A second issue that depicts vividly the Russo-Turkish power balance in the

Black Sea is the recent crises in Ukraine. Russia declaring the right for protection

of the Russian citizens of Crimea and the right for self-determination within a

week -after demonstrating its military forces in the area- made a referendum and

annexed Crimea to the Russian Federation. Turkey is obliged by the

circumstances to retain a neutral position. Sami Kohen indicates that Turkey with

the Ukrainian crises is going through the biggest diplomatic crises of the past

decade because on one side it is impossible to break the tight relations with

Russia or go against it and on the other end of the spectrum its Western allies

-especially the United States- have undermined the Erdogan regime in a harsh

way.53 In all these it is interesting to note the inability of Turkey to support the

Crimean Tatars54 who have already appealed for its support without response. "If

Ankara continues to proffer open support for Ukraine in Crimea, it risks angering

Moscow, with which it is enjoying the best political, economic, social and cultural

relations of the past 500 years," said Hasan Kanbolat, an Ankara-based foreign

policy analyst.55 dIf it reduces its support for Ukraine, Ankara's relations with the West,

of which it is a part, will get worse'd he added.56 To close that issue it is important to

add that the NATO bases in Turkish straits may be asked to be used against

Russia, a development which would bring Turkey in an even more harsh

diplomatic state.

Critical evaluation/Conclusions:Turkey is definitely not on the path to Black Sea hegemony for two reasons:

first because it has to face a variety of multi-frontal global and domestic

challenges that it cannot withstand simultaneously and second because Russia is

the major economical and political power in the region. Though multiple trials

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http://www.china.org.cn/world/Off_the_Wire/2014-03/05/content_31686066.htm

http://www.todayszaman.com/columnists/hasan-kanbolat_341047-turning-the-crimea-into-an-independent-entity.html


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have been made one could say that Turkey has not yet found its place in modern

world: Is Turkey a democracy? Or was the turn of Turkey towards the West just an

excuse to promote Islam and illegitimize the pro-Kemalist military interventions?

Does it belong to Europe after all? And beyond that how can Turkey resolve the

Kurdish issue and the perplex problems with its neighbours both East and West?

These are all problematics that Turkey has to resolve. At the same time Russia

also has a world-wide spread foreign policy agenda full of issues to be dealt with.

But the difference is that Russia has a consolidated regime in terms of institutions

and appeal to its citizens and is the major energy supplying power - a fact that has

turned Russia into the major player in the Black Sea region both in economic and

geopolitical terms. This supremacy allows Russia to have the upper hand and

control in the region. So far Russia has successfully managed to deal with

secessionist movements- the most known of which is the case with Chechnya57.

Furthermore, through the energy -mainly gas- supply and control of the pipelines

it has succeeded to have effect on the Black Sea, Central Asia58, Eastern

Europe59 and EU to be dependent at a great extent60. At that point one could

stress the inherited from the Soviet Union problems that the Black Sea new

nation-states are faced with. The secessionist movements and the frozen conflict

zones61 in the region trace their roots back to the Soviet policies62. That of course

provides the chance for Russia to dramatize the game of ‘’divide and rule’’

according to its interests and exercise claims at a low cost policy. Last but not

least, Russia has proved with the case of Crimea and the Ukrainian crises to have

additionally the ability of being a ‘’hard’’ power, that contrary to the Western school

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of thought, is not hesitant to use its supreme military forces to solve an issue.

Turkey has a multifrontal gap to bridge to be able to compete Russia in the Black

Sea rule. Unlike Turkey- as very shrewdly Chygankov put it- Russia succeeds

’if not by tanks, then by banks’63

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Mitrova Tatiana , "Natural gas in transition: systemic reform issues". InSimon Pirani. Russian and CIS Gas Markets and their Impact on Europe.Oxford University Press, 2009

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Stearns Monteagle, ‘’Entagled Allies: U.S. policy toward Greece,Turkey and Cyprus’’, , Council on Foreign Relations press, NY, 1992

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sees big’’ December 2009,http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/65464/morton-abramowitz-and-henri-j-barkey/turkeys-transformers

Bryansky Gleb, ‘’Russia says Turkey backs all its energy projects’’, 13January 2010 http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSLDE60C2H820100113

Chygankov P. Andrei , ‘’If not by tanks then by banks? The role of softpower in Putin’s foreign policy’’, Europe-Asia studies,Vol. 58, No. 7 (Nov.,2006), Published by: Taylor & Francis Ltd,http://www.jstor.org/discover/10.2307/20451289?uid=2129&uid=2&uid=70&uid=4&sid=21103888541713

Danforth Nick, ‘’Is Turkey renaming Istanbul, Constantinople?’’, 4September, 2009http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2009/09/04/is_turkey_renaming_istanbul_constantinople

Grigoriadis N.Ioannis, ‘’The Davutoglou Doctrine and Turkish ForeignPolicy’’, Middle Eastern Studies Programme, ELIAMEP, Hellenic Foundationfor European and Foreign Policy, Working Paper Nr.2, April 2010


http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSLDE60C2H820100113

http://www.jstor.org/discover/10.2307/20451289?uid=2129&uid=2&uid=70&uid=4&sid=21103888541713



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