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The International Journal of Climate Change: Impacts and Responsesseeks to create an interdisciplinary forum for discussion of evidence of climate change, its causes, its ecosystemic impacts and its human impacts. The journal also explores technological, policy, strategic and social responses to climate change.

The International Journal of Climate Change: Impacts and Responsesis peer-reviewed, supported by rigorous processes of criterion-referenced article ranking and qualitative commentary, ensuring that only intellectual work of the greatest substance and highest significance is published.

Impacts & Responses

CLIMATECHANGE

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JOURNALT H E I N T E R N AT I O N A L

of

Volume 2, Number 4

Tourism Adaptation to Climate Change in China: APolicy Review

Min Jiang

THE INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATE CHANGE: IMPACTS AND RESPONSES http://www.Climate-Journal.com First published in 2011 in Champaign, Illinois, USA by Common Ground Publishing LLC www.CommonGroundPublishing.com ISSN: 1835-7156 © 2011 (individual papers), the author(s) © 2011 (selection and editorial matter) Common Ground All rights reserved. Apart from fair dealing for the purposes of study, research, criticism or review as permitted under the applicable copyright legislation, no part of this work may be reproduced by any process without written permission from the publisher. For permissions and other inquiries, please contact <cg-support@commongroundpublishing.com>. THE INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATE CHANGE: IMPACTS AND RESPONSES is peer-reviewed, supported by rigorous processes of criterion-referenced article ranking and qualitative commentary, ensuring that only intellectual work of the greatest substance and highest significance is published. Typeset in Common Ground Markup Language using CGPublisher multichannel typesetting system http://www.commongroundpublishing.com/software/

Tourism Adaptation to Climate Change in China: APolicy ReviewMin Jiang, Victoria University, VIC, Australia

Abstract: As a climate sensitive sector, tourism is highly vulnerable to climate change impacts. Indeed,the tourism sector has already been experiencing impacts rising from climate change such as warmingtemperatures, sea level rise, coral bleaching, and increase in frequency and intensity of tropical cyc-lones, etc. While China is a major source market for many destinations all over the world, it is risingin the ranking of the world’s top tourism destinations by achieving the fourth position in terms of in-ternational tourist arrivals in 2004. It has been projected by the World Travel and Tourism Councilthat China is to become the second largest travel and tourism economy in the world over the next tenyears. On the other hand, China is one of “climate-tourism hotspots” where climate change can havea major adverse effect on tourism. The projected impacts of climate change in China include morecommon heatwaves, change of precipitation and water availability, increase in frequency of tropicalstorms, sea level rise and coastal erosion. Although how these climate change projections would affectChina’s tourism has yet to be assessed, it will inevitably need to adapt to future impacts of climatechange. Aware of this situation, Chinese government has been making efforts to develop policies toaddress adaptation issues. This paper aims to review China’s recent policy development in tourismadaptation to climate change. Based on the understanding of the current policies, it concludes withrecommendations for future policy development.

Keywords: Tourism, Climate Change, Adaptation, China

Introduction

AS A CLIMATE sensitive sector, tourism is highly vulnerable to climate changeimpacts. Indeed, the tourism sector around the globe has already been experiencingdirect climatic and indirect environmental impacts rising from climate change suchas warming temperatures, sea level rise, coral bleaching, increases in frequency

and intensity of tropical cyclones, biodiversity loss, water availability, and costal erosion,etc. While communities around the world have been making efforts to mitigate climatechange by reducing green house gas emissions, economic sectors that are highly climatesensitive, like tourism, will inevitably need to take immediate actions to adapt to climatechange.

Over a decade of flourishing growth, China’s tourism has become one of its most importantindustries but is also expected to lead the world in the near future. China currently ranks asthe only Asian destination to be ranked among the world’s top ten tourism destinations andis currently fourth in international tourist arrivals and fifth in international tourism receipts.It has been projected that China will become the largest or second largest tourism economyin the world within 15 years.

Threatened by climate change impacts such as changes in precipitation and water availab-ility, more common heatwaves and so on; China is a ‘climate-tourism hotspot’ where climate

The International Journal of Climate Change: Impacts and ResponsesVolume 2, Number 4, 2011, http://www.Climate-Journal.com, ISSN 1835-7156© Common Ground, Min Jiang, All Rights Reserved, Permissions:cg-support@commongroundpublishing.com

change may have a major adverse effect on tourism. In order to assist the tourism sectordrive China’s and global economic growth, there is a need for China to develop policies andstrategies to reduce vulnerability and build resilience in its tourism sector. The Chinesegovernment is aware of this situation and has been working on its policy development toaddress adaptation issues.

Despite the significance of tourism adaptation to climate change, the issue is yet to befully addressed both in literature and in policy. Compared to other sectors, specifically agri-culture and water that have been actively engaged for some time in adaptation research,tourism adaptation research just started in recent years. Hence knowledge on tourism vulner-ability and adaptation, especially at destination level, remains very limited. Similarly, tourismadaptation policies and strategies remain under developed in most countries, which havealso resulted in policy gaps to address climate change issues.

This paper aims to provide an overview of the climate change policy environment inChina, and more importantly, make recommendations for the development of future tourismadaptation policies. The next section looks at the importance of China’s tourism as an eco-nomic sector followed by an overview of climate change and its potential impacts on tourismin China. This paper then reviews climate change policy development of China from atourism adaptation perspective. Based on this policy analysis, this paper concludes with itskey findings of the policy review and makes recommendations for future policy developments.

Tourism in ChinaOver a decade of flourishing growth, tourism has become one of the most important industriesin China. The latest statistics report that tourism contributed RMB1,290 billion (US$188.6billion) towards the Chinese economy which is approximately 4% of China’s Gross DomesticProduct [GDP] (NBSC, 2010). Tourism has also increasingly played a significant role inChinese economy as a job creator. According to the remarks that the Director of China’sNational Tourism Administration (NTAC) made in February 2010, tourism direct employmentaccounts for over 11 million jobs and indirectly 65 million jobs. This represents 9.6% of thetotal national employment (NTAC, 2010).

China is the only country in Asia to rank among the world’s top ten tourism destinations.It was ranked fourth behind France, the United States and Spain, and ahead of Italy, with53.0 million international tourist arrivals at frontiers (excluding same-day visitors) in 2008(UNWTO, 2009). In the ranking of international tourism receipts, China is fifth with US$40.8 billion in 2008, after the United States, Spain, France, and Italy (UNWTO, 2009).

It has been projected by the World Travel and Tourism Council that China is forecastedto become the second largest travel and tourism economy in the world in the period between2007 and 2016 (WTTC, 2006). According to the remarks made by the secretary general ofthe UNWTO at the opening ceremony of the 2010 Boao International Tourism Forum inMarch, the UNWTO’s latest forecasts were even more optimistic. China is expected to makea key contribution to the global tourism growth in 2010, and is going to become the world’sNo. 1 tourism destination by 2015 (Xinhua News, 2010a; Xinhua News, 2010b).

China also has the world’s largest domestic tourism market in terms of number of tourists(People’s Daily, 2008). In 2009, 1.9 billion domestic tourists generated US$ 148.9 billionin tourism revenue (NBSC, 2010). This means that the number of domestic tourists in Chinahas grown by more than 250 percent and domestic tourism revenue by nearly 400 percent

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since 2000. As the following figure shows (see Figure 1), both domestic and internationalvisitor arrivals have steadily increased over the decade with the exception of 2003 becauseof the impact of SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome). During the Global FinancialCrisis in 2008 and 2009, the domestic tourism market maintained growing while there wasa slight decrease in international visitor arrivals (NBSC, 2010).

Figure 1: Growth in Visitor Arrivals in China between 2000 and 2009

(International visitors include ethnic Chinese arriving from Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan.Data from NBSC, Statistical Communique on the National Economic and Social Developmentof People’s Republic of China 2001-2010)

Climate Change and Tourism in ChinaChina’s temperature rise has basically kept pace with global warming, with the averagesurface temperature increasing by 1.1 ° C from 1908 to 2007, slightly higher than the globalaverage (China State Council, 2008). During the last 50 years, temperature warming in Chinahas been more pronounced in winter than summer (NDRC, 2007). It is projected that tem-peratures in China will rise by 1.3° C to 2.1 ° C by 2020, 2.3 ° C to 3.3 ° C by 2050, and 3.9° C to 6.0 ° C by 2100 (NDRC, 2007; PRC, 2004). Increases in frequency and intensity ofclimatic extremes, such as heatwaves, severe droughts, extreme rains, and tropical cycloneshave also been projected and considered a result of climate change in China (NDRC, 2007).

In the twentieth century the mountain glacier area of China has declined by 21 percent.This trend is projected to continue and at an accelerated rate. Relatively sea levels in Chinaare reported to have risen during last 50 years an average of 1.0 mm-3.0mm per annum. Thesea level rise projections of China range from 31 cm to 65 cm by the end of the twentiethfirst century (Cruz et al., 2007).

China’s precipitation is forecasted to increase by 2-3 percent by 2020 and 5-7 percent by2050 (NDRC, 2007). In different parts of China however, the projected changes in precipit-ation are diverse. As shown in Figure 2, annual mean rainfall will increase in West China

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and South-East China, while North China and North-East China will have decreasing trendsin annual rainfall (Cruz et al., 2007).

Figure 2: Climate Change in China

As a climate sensitive sector, tourism is highly vulnerable to climate change impacts. Amongother tourism destinations around the world such as: Alpine Europe, Islands in South Pacificand Indian Oceans, North-eastern USA, Northern and Eastern Mediterranean, South-easternUSA, Mexico and Caribbean, and Western Europe; China is considered a ‘climate-tourismhotspot’ where climate change is likely to have a major adverse effect on tourism (Beckenand Hay, 2007). Climate change impacts on tourism can be categorized into four types: directclimatic impacts, indirect environmental impacts, impacts of mitigation policies on touristmobility, and indirect societal change impacts (UNWTO et al., 2008). Because of theknowledge gap in tourism vulnerability and adaptation to climate change, especially at localdestination level, how the climate change projections (highlighted in the previous paragraphs)affect China’s tourism is yet to be assessed. It could be argued however, that China’s tourismis likely to be affected by climatic and environmental impacts rising from climate change:

• Direct climatic impacts: Climate itself is a principal resource for tourism by co-determ-ining the suitability of locations for a wide range of tourist activities and a principaldriver of the seasonality of demand (UNWTO et al., 2008) In China, these direct climateimpacts on tourism could include warmer winters, more heatwaves, extreme rains, andmore frequent and intense tropical cyclones.

• Indirect environmental change impacts:Because environmental conditions are criticalto tourism, a wide range of climate-induced environmental changes will have profoundeffects on tourism (UNWTO et al., 2008). For example, water shortages are likely to

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become a major challenge for many destinations in China. Others include coastal erosion,damage to infrastructure and attractions, and biodiversity loss etc.

Climate Change Adaptation Policy Development in ChinaChina’s tourism is confronted by a range of challenges resulting from climate change. Inorder to support the sustainable development of tourism and assist the sector drive China’seconomic growth, China will inevitably need to develop adaptation policies and strategiesto reduce vulnerability and build resilience in its tourism sector to the risks and impacts ofclimate change. The Chinese government is aware of the situation and has been making effortsto address climate change adaptation issues.

National Climate Change (Adaptation) Policies in ChinaChina signed the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)in 1992 and ratified it in 1993. In 2004, China’s Initial National Communication on ClimateChange (INC) was produced to fulfil China’s obligations under the UNFCCC. The Commu-nication presented an overview of the national circumstances related to climate change issues,presented a Greenhouse Gas (GHG) inventory, climate change impacts and adaptation, andmitigation policy measures (PRC, 2004).

In 2006, the Ministry of Science and Technology, the State Meteorological Administration,and Chinese Academy of Sciences jointly released the Initial National Assessment Reporton Climate Change (NAR). This included: a report on historic changes in the climate andfuture climate change projections for China; climate change impacts on China’s ecosystems,environment, economic and social development; and socio-economic assessments of climatechange mitigation and adaptation (China State Council, 2006). This initial assessment reportis currently under review and a second report is expected to be completed later in 2010.

As a major implementation of UNFCCC, China promulgated the National Climate ChangeProgramme (NCCP) in 2007. The Programme established the guiding principles for respond-ing to climate change, climate change mitigation, and 2010 adaptation objectives. Sectorsthat have been identified as highly vulnerable to climate change include agriculture, forestry,water, and coastal resources (NDRC, 2007).

One of the adaptation strategies highlighted in the Programme is to improve and strengthenresearch and education in climate change issues. In order to implement this component ofthe Programme, the Ministry of Science and Technology, in collaboration with other relevantagencies, has endorsed ‘Specific Science – Technology Action on Climate Change’ [SSTA](MOST et al., 2007). The Chinese government has committed to investing in human andfinancial resources in climate change adaptation research and education (e.g. developingclimate change vulnerability assessment models), adaptation solutions, and risk managementsystems, etc. (MOST et al., 2007).

At the local level Provincial Programmes for Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation(PPCCMA) have also been developed to implement the National Climate Change Programme.These have been supported by international development finances from UNDP, EU and theNorwegian government. The provincial programmes selected 14 provinces as capacitybuilding pilots and two local areas for adaptation case studies (NDRC, 2008).

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In 2008, the central government of China published a White Paper on Policies and Actionsfor Addressing Climate Change (WP), which stated the policies and actions that China hasadopted to respond to climate change and reviewed its progress. Climate change adaptationhas been addressed in the following ways (China State Council, 2008):

• Mitigation and adaptation are the two responses to climate change that are to work to-gether and complement each other to reduce the risks of climate change.

• Four sectors have been identified as the most vulnerable to climate change: agriculture,forestry, water, and coastal resources. Various measures have been undertaken to improvetheir adaptive capacity.

• Climate change research activities are encouraged and facilitated so that the developmentof national climate change policies and strategies can be based on solid scientific inform-ation.

• Programmes are promoted to raise public awareness to climate change and build capacityto address the related issues.

• Climate change should be ‘mainstreamed’ into economic and social planning at eachgovernment level and in different sectors.

Policy Development in Tourism Adaptation to Climate Change in ChinaAlthough tourism has not yet been identified as a highly vulnerable sector to climate change,the national climate change policies have acknowledged the potential impacts of climatechange on both natural and cultural tourism resources (NDRC, 2008), which necessitatesthe mainstreaming of climate change issues into the sectoral policies.

The National Tourism Administration (NTA) promulgated Suggestions on Tourism Re-sponding to Climate Change in 2008, which provides guiding principles on how the tourismsector should respond to climate change. The main principle for adaptation are summarised(NTA, 2008):

• Tourism’s vulnerability to climate change should be assessed at destination level basedon the climate change projections for the specific region.

• Tourism is likely to be adversely affected by climate change in three ways: the deterior-ation of the environment upon which tourism resources are dependent, the increasingcosts of tourism product development, and affected tourism flows and demands due toclimatic extremes.

• Climate change also results in some beneficial opportunities for tourism in some destin-ations, which needs to be understood and taken advantage of.

• Climate change needs to be integrated into the planning process of tourism development.• Disaster risk reduction measures should be undertaken to protect tourism resources and

infrastructure.

Conclusion and Recommendations for Future Policy DevelopmentTo summarise, China has developed a range of national policies and actions to respond toclimate change which mostly address both mitigation and adaptation issues (see Figure 3).These policies and actions have identified four sectors (agriculture, forestry, water, and

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coastal resources) that are most likely to be affected by climate change and acknowledgedthe importance of reducing their vulnerability and building resilience to climate change im-pacts. These sectors are closely related to tourism as an integral part of the tourism system,and therefore, their adaptation to climate change will definitely contribute to the resiliencebuilding of the tourism sector.

Figure 3: Mapping out the Climate Change Policies in China

Despite the fact that tourism has not been among those most vulnerable sectors indentifiedin the policies, its vulnerability to climate change is recognized. Suggestions on TourismResponding to Climate Change is an initial effort that the sector has made to mainstreamclimate change issues into sectoral policies, which underpins the future development oftourism specific climate change policies. Nevertheless, some major tourism adaptation issuesare yet to be addressed in the current policy environment of China.

Among others, the following two issues are noteworthy for China to develop its tourismadaptation policies:

• Awareness programmes should be introduced to educate both the government and industrystakeholders on matters related to tourism and climate change.

• A vulnerability assessment of China’s tourism, as well as vulnerability assessments atlocal destination level, should be undertaken to better understand the both negative impactsand positive opportunities for the sector/destination rising from potential climate change.

ReferencesBecken, S. and Hay, J. (2007): Tourism and Climate Change: Risks and Opportunities, Clevedon,

Channel View Publications.China State Council (2008): White Paper on China’s Policies and Action s for Addressing Climate

Change, in Chinese, available at http://www.gov.cn/zwgk/2008-10/29/content_1134378.htmChina State Council (2006): Initial National Assessment Report on Climate Change Released, in

Chinese, available at http://www.gov.cn/fwxx/kp/2006-12/27/content_480242.htmCruz, R.V. et al. (2007): Asia, Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contri-

bution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the IntergovernmentalPanel on Climate Change, M. L. Parry et al Eds., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge,UK, 469-506.

Ministry of Science and Technology of China (MOST), et al. (2007): Specific Science and TechnologyAction on Climate Change of China, in Chinese, Beijing, China.

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National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBSC) (2010): 2009 Statistical Communique on the NationalEconomic and Social Development of People’s Republic of China, in Chinese, available athttp://news.xinhuanet.com/politics/2010-02/25/content_13047677.htm

National Development and Reform Commission of China (NDRC) (2007): The National ClimateChange Programme of China, Beijing, China.

NDRC (2008): New Bulletin on Provincial Programmes for Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptationin China, Issue 1, June 2008, in Chinese, available at http://qhs.ndrc.gov.cn/gndt/qhbhfa/t20090205_259511.htm

National Tourism Administration of China (NTA) (2010): China Tourism Employment Accounted for9.6% of Total National Employment, in Chinese, available athttp://www.cnta.gov.cn/html/2010-2/2010-2-26-10-6-22283.html

NTA (2008): Suggestions on Tourism Responding to Climate Change, in Chinese, Beijing, China,available at http://www.cnta.gov.cn/html/2008-11/2008-11-4-9-30-89391.html

People’s Daily (2008): China has world’s largest domestic tourism market, People’s Daily, availableat http://english.people.com.cn/90001/90778/6493119.html

People’s Republic of China (PRC) (2004): Initial National Communication on Climate Change, Beijing,China.

UNWTO (2009): Tourism Highlights 2009 Edition.UNWTO, UNEP, and WMO (2008): Climate Change and Tourism – Responding to Global Challenges,

UNWTO, Madrid, Spain.WTTC (2006): China, China Hong Kong SAR and China Macau SAR: the Impact of Travel and

Tourism on Jobs and the Economy, London, the UK.Xinhua News (2010a): China to become world’s top tourist destination by 2015: UNWTO, Xinhua

News, 22 March 2010, available at http://news.xinhuanet.com/english2010/china/2010-03/22/c_13219683.htm

Xinhua News (2010b): China key to global tourism growth in 2010: UNWTO official, Xinhua News,21 March 2010, available at http://news.xinhuanet.com/english2010/china/2010-03/21/c_13218819.htm

About the AuthorDr. Min JiangResearch Fellow in tourism adaptation to climate change, PhD in environmental law. Spe-cialises in environmental law and policy, and has published on Pacific tourism adaptationto climate change, Chinese law, water law and policy, water allocation mechanisms, andwater rights trading. Currently working on tourism adaptation to climate change and is co-ordinating the AusAID Australian Development Research Award Pacific Tourism ClimateAdaptation Project (PT-CAP). Research interests include adaptation to climate change, waterlaw and policy, Chinese law and policy.

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Amareswar Galla, The University of Queensland, Australia. Bill Cope, University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign, USA. EDITORIAL ADVISORY BOARD

Viraal Balsari, Vice President, ABN Amro Bank, Mumbai, India. Erach Bharucha, Bharati Vidyapeeth Univeristy, Pune, India. Tapan Chakrabarti, National Environmental Engineering Research Institute, Nagpur, India. Thomas Krafft, Geomed Research Corporation, Bad Honnef, Germany. Shamita Kumar, Bharati Vidyapeeth Univeristy, Pune, India. R. Mehta, Ministry of Environment and Forests, Government of India, New Delhi, India. Kranti Yardi, Bharati Vidyapeeth Univeristy, Pune, India.

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