The end of an assured shorthold tenancy as a forced move. Its

incidence and experience.

Darren Baxter, The University of Yorkdarren.baxter@york.ac.uk

Why study the end of assured shorthold tenancies

• Missing information – probably increasing, if not proportionally then numerically

• Policy relevance – Shelter report

• End of assured shorthold tenancies are feeding into homelessness

• Fits within wider debates – i.e. Precarity, flexibilisation of the labour market

Evictions in the UK (1)

19901991

19921993

19941995

19961997

19981999

20002001

20022003

20042005

20062007

20082009

20102011

20122013

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

Possesion orders per 1000 of the population in the United Kingdom, 1990-2013

England and Wales - Full orders - Owner Oc-cupiedEngland and Wales - Suspended orders - Owner OccupiedNorthern Ireland - Full orders - Owner OccupiedEngland and wales - Orders - SRSScotland - Orders - SRSNorthern Ireland - Orders (combined SRS and PRS)England and Wales - Orders (Standard pro-cedure) - PRSEngland and Wales - Orders (accelarated pro-cedure) - PRS

Evictions in the UK (2)

Scotla

nd - Ord

ers - S

RS

Engla

nd and W

ales -

Orders

(Stan

dard proced

ure) - P

RS

Engla

nd and W

ales -

Susp

ended

orders - O

wner Occu

pied

Northern

Irelan

d - Ord

ers (c

ombined SR

S and PRS)

Engla

nd and W

ales -

Full o

rders - O

wner Occu

pied

Engla

nd and W

ales -

Orders (a

ccelar

ated pro

cedure)

- PRS

Engla

nd and w

ales -

Orders - S

RS

Northern

Irelan

d - Full o

rders - O

wner Occu

pied0

0.20.40.60.8

11.21.4

Possesion orders per 1000 of the population in the United Kingdom, 2012

Evictions in the UK (3)

What is an assured shorthold tenancy

• Default PRS tenancy– But also used in SRS – (6.85% of tenancies in England, 2013

(CORE, 2014)

• Established under the Housing Act (1988)– Amended under Housing Act (1996)

• Time-limited/no-security of tenure– Can become a statutory periodic tenancy

• Ended using a Section 21 notice – gives 2 months notice to quit

Research questions

• What is the incidence of moves due to the end of an assured shorthold tenancy?

• What are the reasons behind the ending of tenancies?

• What the characteristics of moves and movers?

Methodology

• Secondary data analysis of the English Housing Survey 2012/13 and EU SILC housing conditions ad hoc module, 2012– Will look at 09/10,10/11,11/12 EHS datasets for

incidence

• Weights applied to EHS to apply findings to general population

Methodology• Looking at those who:

• Moved in the last three years

• Were previously renting on an assured shorthold tenancy

• Self reported that they ‘were asked to leave by their landlord/agent’

• Methodological challenges

• Retrospective questions

• Self reporting

Incidence

Number of moves due to the end of an assured shorthold tenancy in England, 2009-2012

YearNumber of moves due to end of tenancy (England)

End of tenancy moves per 1000 of population (England)

End of tenancy moves per 1000 units of PRS housing stock, England

2009 37939 0.726850894 10.23994602

2010 67155 1.275680296 17.16641104

2011 50676 0.954220897 12.34494519

2012 42948 0.802860898 10.02053196

Source: EHS (2012/13, 2011/12, 2010/11, 2009/10); DCLG (2014) Live tables on dwelling stock (including vacants) - Table 104: by tenure, England (historical series); ONS (2013) Population Estimates Total Persons for England and Wales and Regions, Mid-1971 to Mid-2012

Does this look right?• EU SILC data shows that 30.8% of the population reported

having changed address in the last five years. 2.3% of these moves were because the ‘landlord did not prolong the contract’ (EU SILC, 2012).

• That equates to 446292 moves due to end of tenancy over 5 years, roughly 89258.4 a year.

• So a figure of between 40-60000 in England alone fits.

Incidence cont.

Owner occupied - Full orders Social rented - full orders Private rented sector - full orders

Ending by landlord of an assured shorthold tenancy

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

2

15

3

12

End of tenancy compared to traditional forms of reposession per 1000 dwelling stock, 2010-12 average

3 year average

Incidence cont.

Why are tenancies being ended?

Non paymen

t of re

nt

Difficu

lties with

paymen

t of H

ousing B

enefi

t/Local

Housing A

llowan

ce

Landlord

dissati

sfied or n

eighbours

complained

to la

ndlord

Landlord

wanted

to se

ll/use

propert

y

Problem

s with

property

Some o

ther rea

son0.00

10.0020.0030.0040.0050.0060.0070.00

11.59 3.62 0.91

62.86

0.96

23.69

Reason tenant asked to leave by their landlord, 2012

%

What are the characteristics of the moves?

Tenure (destination)

Owner occupied Private rented Social rented0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

3

74

23

Destination tenure of those moving due the forced ending of an assured shorthold tenancy

%

Age

18/24 25/34 35/44 45/54 55/64 65+0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

13

36

25

15

7

3

Age (at the point of interview) of those moving due the forced end-ing of an assured shorthold tenancy

%

Sex

Male Female48

49

50

51

51

49

Sex (at the point of interview) of those moving due the forced end-ing of an assured shorthold tenancy

%

Geographic distribution

North Ea

st

North W

est

Yorks

hire an

d the H

umber

East M

idlands

West M

idlands

East

London

South Ea

st

South W

est Total

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

37 35

5247

59

73 72

60

76

59

Moves due to the end of a tenancy by 1000 units of dwellng stock and region, 2010-2012

Conclusions

• End of AST contributes notably to mobility – more so than other forms of eviction

• Reasons predominantly to with issues with tenant (although rent arrears a key reason) – calls into question landlord side security

• Moves predominantly made into the PRS• Housing markets appear to contribute to

mobility

Bibliography• DCLG (2014) Live tables on dwelling stock (including vacants) - Table 104: by tenure, England (historical

series)• CORE Statistics (2014) DCLG: London• English Housing Survey (2012/13) • EU SILC Housing Consitions Module, 2012• Ministry of Justice (2013) Table 5: Landlord possession claims in the County Courts of England and

Wales by type of procedure and landlord, 1990 - 2013• Ministry of Justice (2013) Table 5: Landlord possession claims in the County Courts of England and

Wales by type of procedure and landlord, 1990 - 2013• Northern Ireland Courts and Tribunals Service (2014) Table: County Court Ejectment Cases Disposed• ONS (2013) Population Estimates Total Persons for England and Wales and Regions, Mid-1971 to Mid-

2012 • The Scottish Government (2013) Eviction actions against council tenants: financial year 2001-02 to

latest avaiable: Notice of Proceedings Issued; The Scottish Government (2013) Eviction actions against council tenants: financial year 2001-02 to latest avaiable: Number of cases resulting in an eviciton order

• The Scottish Government (2014) Civil law statistics Scotland main tables, 2012-13: Table 18: Repossession and eviction cases initiated and disposed of in the Sheriff Courts, by case type, 2008-09-2012-13