The Development of Real Sectors in Indonesia: Significant Role of Conventional and Islamic Banking
Transcript of The Development of Real Sectors in Indonesia: Significant Role of Conventional and Islamic Banking
1 Presented in 6th International Colloquium on Business & Management 2013, Bangkok, Thailand
The Development of Real Sectors in Indonesia:
Significant Role of Conventional and Islamic Banking
Fitri Hastuti, SE, M.Si
Dr. Nury Effendi, SE, MA
Faculty of Economics and Business
University of Padjadjaran Indonesia
Abstract
This paper mainly focused in comparing the role of conventional and Islamic
banking on the development of real sectors in Indonesia. This study also included the
analysis for economic sector growth. The Growth Regression Cross Sectional was used
as quantitative analysis to capture the significant effect of both conventional and Islamic
banking credit on the development of economic sector in different provinces in
Indonesia. This research captured the lending activity of Islamic banks and conventional
banks in 9 provinces with the highest Islamic banking activities from 2007 until 2010.
Although overall Islamic bank financing activity did not affect output in province
samples significantly, based on economic sector analysis Islamic banks had a major role
in the development of agricultural, transportation, and services sectors. Lending activity
from Islamic banking statistically affect the increase of output in those sectors, with the
confidence level of 95%. The increase of Rp. 1 billion lending value from Islamic banks
will give impact as follows: 1) an increase in agricultural sector output of Rp. 10.5
billion 2) an increase in transportation sector output of Rp. 14.15 billion 3) an increase in
service sector output of Rp. 1.22 billion. The margin of financing rate from Islamic and
conventional bank also played a major role in increasing output of agricultural,
electricity gas and water, as well as transportation sector. The smaller the margin rate
between Islamic and conventional bank would increase output in agriculture sector.
Keywords: Development of Real Sector, Banking Sector, Financing Activity,
Financing Margin
2 Presented in 6th International Colloquium on Business & Management 2013, Bangkok, Thailand
I. Introduction
This paper mainly focuses in analyzing the role of conventional and Islamic
banking on the development of real sector in Indonesia, including the analysis for
economic sector growth. In the 1950s and 60s, it was quiet a popular thought that
banking sector could promote economic growth. As mentioned by Miwa and Ramseyer
(2000), Alexander Gerschenkron claimed that banks facilitate economic growth among
“backward” countries. The same notion also occurred 1990s and 2000s, where many
theorists claim the importance of banks in promoting growth. Banks have significant
roles particularly because of their superior monitoring and screening capabilities.
Through those qualifications, banks can reduce the asymmetric information, moral
hazard and adverse selection problems, and thereby improve the credit allocation.
Montiel (2003) stated that a financial system can contribute to economic growth in
three channels, incentive creation for accumulation of physical and human capital,
capital allocation to the most productive activities, and decreasing the amount of
resources used in the process of intermediation. Levine (1997:691) differentiated five
basic functions of financial systems, including the facilitation of risk management,
resources allocation, monitoring of managers and control over corporate governance,
savings mobilization, easing the exchange of goods and services, and finance causes
growth
Burzynska (2008) affirmed evidence that there is a long-run equilibrium
relationship between economic growth and financial development. The presence and
direction of causality is affected by the type of bank as well as type of loan. There is
bidirectional Granger-causality between economic growth and credit extended by policy
banks. Similar causality exists between economic growth and operations of rural credit
cooperatives. Also state-owned commercial banks and other commercial banks are
economically related to economic growth. However, there is only a unidirectional
causality from economic growth to financial development in their case. The effects of
activity of distinct banks are partially mirrored in the results of Granger-causality for
different types of loans. Loans to construction sector, which can be linked to policy
banks’ projects, are proved to Granger-cause economic growth. There is also
unidirectional causality from economic growth to loans to commercial sector. In
sustaining the growth he suggested to further develop financial services, ensure better
3 Presented in 6th International Colloquium on Business & Management 2013, Bangkok, Thailand
credit allocation and improve access to financing for private as well as small and
medium-sized enterprises.
The central bank act number 23 of 1999 amended by act number 3 of 2004 stated
that Indonesia has conducted both Islamic and conventional monetary operations. The
banking act number 7 of 1992 and amended by act number 10 of 1998 has allowed the
implementation of Islamic banks along with the conventional ones. Rifki Ismal (2011)
affirmed the ideal practices of Islamic banks should directly extend funds to the real
sector and seek profit directly from the robust performance of the real sector. He also
pointed out that most of Islamic banks in Indonesia are retail banks which extend
financing directly to real sector. However, limited number of Islamic banks holds back
the industry to optimally meet the domestic demand from Moslem population.
Lacey (2009) stated that Indonesian Islamic banks are performing below
expectations. He mentioned the combination of Islamic banking and finance industry,
comprising banking and bonds, financing government debt, consumer and loans to small-
and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), needs to go for volume if it is to impact
significantly on the vigorous Indonesian economy, still growing at 4.5%. However Bank
lending and bank capitalization were growing despite the global downturn. There lies the
basic problem of the Islamic banks. They start from such a small base that they can hardly
keep up. That problem gets bigger when they need to make gains from their share of
capital growth or lending. The problem he underlined is mathematical as well as about the
political will of the government and lack of capacity of the Islamic banking and finance
private sector. Firstly, Islamic banking and finance remains weak in Indonesia, accounting
for only 3% of banking assets and 2.1% of bank lending. While Islamic banking
worldwide deploys US$250 billion with a 15% growth rate. However, Indonesia, with
15% of the world’s Muslim population, deploys only 2.1% of global Islamic banking
assets. Secondly, the average asset growth of Islamic banking in Indonesia, averaged 60%
between 1999 and 2004 and fell to an average 46% from 2005 to 2009, compared with a
steady average 13% growth in the capital base of conventional banks in the same period.
In order to catch up and start gaining ground, Islamic banking needs higher growth rates
than anything they have achieved in the past.
Muliaman D Hadad (2009) assumed unless Islamic banking in Indonesia changes its
mindset and goes for volume, it might never catch up with the growth rate of conventional
banking and never significantly increase its market share of lending or share of capital. He
4 Presented in 6th International Colloquium on Business & Management 2013, Bangkok, Thailand
stressed that Islamic banks need to target larger local corporations and growth sectors like
agriculture, Indonesian food, energy, healthcare, technology and education. To match the
Malaysian performance on percentage volume of national banking capital deployed
(15%), Indonesian Islamic banking would need to mobilize US$44 billion within five
years, or about US$91 billion within 10 years.
Rifki Ismal (2011) mentioned the challenge for Islamic banking industry in
Indonesia covers three aspects, specifically small market share, lack of human resources
and lack of product development. First problem arises due to limited involvement of
government funds, non comprehensive understanding of depositors, business partners
and public, as well as the limited number of Islamic banks and windows. However, this
problem can be solved through ways such as the willingness of the government to locate
hajj funds (USD 2.6 billion) in Islamic banks, invest assets of state owned companies
(USD250 billion) in Islamic banks and convert at least one of 4 state banks (total assets
of USD111.5 billion) into Islamic banks. This solution can increase Islamic banking
market share significantly. Second problem, number of offices accelerates 44.5% and it
needs additional human resources that cannot be fulfilled because of the limited formal
and informal institutions teaching Islamic banking/finance, lack of books on Islamic
banking and finance and no Islamic banking and finance curriculum in all level of the
national education system. Ideally, human resources should understand both the
conventional and Islamic finance perfectly. However, almost all of the government and
private universities in Indonesia do not have Islamic banking/finance program. Third
problem, the Islamic banking has limited products where all the existing contracts are
classic types. Nonetheless, even though there are a variety of banking products it will be
useless if the public is less understood.
Yusuf Wibisono (2011) revealed since Islamic banking has the focus to micro-
financing, financing carried out by Islamic banking will encourage economic growth in
the real sector and hence will improve income distribution. Finally it will reduce the
inequalities of income and enhance the people welfare.
Yet, due to the lack of success in implementing risk-sharing financial techniques,
many observers point out that Islamic banks are reluctant to invest in long-term projects.
By concentrating on financing of working capital and short-term trade in commodities,
Islamic banks negatively discriminate long-term investment projects and therefore
reduce the prospects for economic growth and development.
5 Presented in 6th International Colloquium on Business & Management 2013, Bangkok, Thailand
II. Overview of Empirical Research
2.1. The Role of Banking Sector to Economic Growth
As a summary, the table below describes some studies that reveal the contribution
of the banking sector to economic growth.
Table 1
Banking Sector and Economic Growth
No Finance causes Growth Finance not causes Growth
1 King and Levine (1993; 1993a)
80 countries, period between 1960 and
1989.
Financial services are importantly
linked to economic growth and
productivity improvements.
The level of financial development
predicts future economic growth and
future productivity advances. In other
words, finance does not merely follow
economic activity.
Demetriades and Hussein (1996)
Time series analysis to 16 countries for
the period between 1960 and 1990.
They strongly oppose the use of cross-
section equations; differences in financial
sector development may reflect different
institutional characteristics, different
policies, and differences in their
implementation.
It cannot be concluded that it universally
holds that finance cause growth nor that
finance follows growth.
2 De Gregorio and Guidotti (1995)
98 countries from 1960 to 1985.
The impact of financial development
on growth is broadly positive. It
changes according to regions, time
periods, and levels of income.
The positive effect is strong in middle
and low-income countries.
It is stronger in the 1960s than in the
Neusser and Kugler (1998)
Time-series analysis on a sample of 13
OECD9 countries for 1970 to 1991.
It is not possible to make a general
statement whether financial development
is truly an engine of growth or just a sign
of the evolution of the whole economy
due to independent factors. The causal
link is empirically weak for most of the
6 Presented in 6th International Colloquium on Business & Management 2013, Bangkok, Thailand
1970s and 1980s.
The effect is due mainly to its impact
on the efficiency rather than the
volume of investment.
smaller countries, which the authors
explain by different degrees of capital
mobility.
3 Odedokun’s (1996)
71 developing countries, varying
periods that generally span the 1960s
and 1980s.
Financial intermediation promotes
economic growth in roughly eighty
five percent of the countries and that
the growth-promoting patterns of
financial intermediation are practically
invariant across various countries and
regions.
Koivu (2002)
25 countries during 1993-2000.
It is not clear whether financial
intermediation is more important for
economic growth in the short or long run,
even though there is more evidence in
favor of the long run.
4 Levine (1998)
43 countries from 1976 to 1993.
His results show that there is a
statistically significant and
economically large relationship
between banking development
(measured as credit allocated by
commercial and other deposit-taking
banks to the private sector divided by
GDP) and long-run rates of economic
growth.
Favara (2003)
85 countries in the sample; 1960-1998.
The effects of financial development
vary considerably across countries and
that there is no obvious pattern related to
geographic location, the level of
economic development, or institutional
characteristics
Business cycles and measurement errors
are the driving force of these findings
5 Calderon and Liu (2003)
109 countries from 1960 to 1994 using
Geweke decomposition test.
a) financial development generally
leads to economic growth; b) the
Granger causality from financial
development to economic growth and
Shan (2005) and Zang and Kim (2007)
Variance decomposition analysis, 1985
to 1998, quarterly data, and panel
analysis, similar results.
Financial development is no more than a
contributing factor and, almost certainly,
not the most important factor.
7 Presented in 6th International Colloquium on Business & Management 2013, Bangkok, Thailand
the Granger causality from economic
growth to financial development
coexist; c) financial deepening
contributes more to the causal
relationship in the developing
countries than in the industrial
countries; d) the longer the sampling
interval, the larger the effect of
financial development on economic
growth; e) financial deepening propels
economic growth through both a more
rapid capital accumulation and
productivity growth, with the latter
channel being the strongest.
Highlights the inappropriateness of cross-
sectional analysis.
6 Fink et al. (2005)
11 transition countries (1990-2001).
Financial sector development triggers
short run growth effects rather than
spurring long term growth.
2.2. The Advantage of Islamic Banking: Zero Interest
Below are some scientific discussions about the benefit of the existence of Islamic
banking, zero interest rate:
a. Maurice Allais (1947) reached the conclusion that the optimum real interest rate is
zero.
b. M.Sidrauski (1967) by using a dynamic utility function in which money was
inserted, reached the conclusion that in order zero down welfare cost, interest rate
must be equal to that of social marginal cost. Applying it to money it amounts to
zero interest.
c. B.P.Pesek, and T.R. Sving (1967) have argued that the essential characteristic of
8 Presented in 6th International Colloquium on Business & Management 2013, Bangkok, Thailand
money is its non-interest bearingness, and that if money were to bear interest it
would cease to be used as money.
d. Professor M. Friedman (1969) reached the conclusion that zero nominal interest
rate is the necessary condition for optimal allocation of output factors.
e. US Federal Reserve Economists of Minneapolis District (1998), showed that for
optimal allocation of output factors, not only is zero interest necessary condition,
but it is sufficient too.
In summary the studies propose the importance of zero interest rate. This is what
has been carried out in Islam, which begins with sanction against interest (Riba), and
ends with the welfare state; the one ideally achieved in Islam.
Furqani & Mulyany (2009) examined the dynamic interactions between Islamic
banking and economic growth in Malaysia by employing the co-integration test and
vector error model (VECM) to see whether the financial system influence growth and
growth transforms the operation of the financial system in the long run. They use time
series data of total Islamic bank financing and real GDP per capita, fixed investment and
trade activities to represent real economic sectors. Their research found that in the short
run only fixed investment that granger cause Islamic bank to develop from 1997:1 –
2005:4. Whereas in the long run, there is evidence of a bidirectional relationship between
Islamic bank and fixed investment and there is evidence to support demand following
hypothesis of GDP and Islamic bank, where increase in GDP cause Islamic bank to
develop and not vice versa.
III. Method of Analysis
The methods of analysis are qualitative and quantitative analysis. Quantitative
analysis used is Growth Regression Cross Sectional, to capture the significant effect of
both conventional and Islamic banking credit on the development of economic sector in
different provinces in Indonesia.
The sample would be the lending activity of Islamic banks and conventional banks
in 9 provinces with the highest Islamic banking activities from 2007 until 2010.
Yit = f (IBcreditit, CBcreditit, Infrastructureit, MIBCBit) … Eq (1)
9 Presented in 6th International Colloquium on Business & Management 2013, Bangkok, Thailand
The analysis itself can be categorized into two main discussions: 1) output for each
province sample, 2) output per economic sector in each province sample.
For the first discussion, the followings explain about the data used:
Yit : total output in province i for period t (billion rupiah)
IBcredit it : value of credit from Islamic banking in province i for period t
(billion rupiah)
CBcreditit : value of credit from conventional banking in province i for
period t (billion rupiah)
MIBCBit : margin between Islamic banking lending rate to conventional
banking lending rate in province i for period t (percentage)
Infrastructureit : length of road, highway, bridge, and flyover in province i for
period t (kilometers)
For the second discussion, the period sample is decreased, only from 2009 until 2010
because the complete data for economic sector per province in Indonesia was only
available since 2009. Hence the variables used become:
Yjit : economic sector j output in province i for period t (billion
rupiah)
IBcreditjit : value of credit from Islamic banking to economic sector j in
province i for period t (billion rupiah)
CBcreditjit : value of credit from conventional banking to economic sector
j in province i for period t (billion rupiah)
MIBCBjit : margin between Islamic banking lending rate to conventional
banking lending rate to economic sector j in province i for
period t (percentage)
IV. Data
Annex 1 describes historical data of financing activities of Islamic banks since
2007 until August 2012 for the whole province in Indonesia. The data is significant in
10 Presented in 6th International Colloquium on Business & Management 2013, Bangkok, Thailand
deciding the province samples whose lending activities are higher than Rp. 3,000 billion.
Later on, these province sample will be collected other important variables such as
commercial banks lending activities, output in economic sectors that receive dominant
credit from Islamic banks, conventional banks, the difference in interest of lending
activities between Islamic banking and conventional banking, as well as infrastructure
conditions. Initially the time range of this study is from 2007 until 2011. However, due
to the limitation in economic sector output data, this study is performed from 2007 until
2010.
From the mentioned annex, it is clear that Islamic banks’ lending activity is
dominant in 9 provinces, DKI Jakarta, West Java, East Java, Central Java, North
Sumatera, Banten, West Sumatera, South Sumatera and South Sulawesi. Hence, we will
focus the discussion based on the data from these provinces.
Graph 1
Conventional Bank Lending Value in 2010 (Billion Rp)
Source: www.bi.go.id
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
Banten West Java CentralJava
East Java SouthSulawesi
WestSumatera
SouthSumatera
NorthSumatera
Agriculture Mining Manufacturing
Electricity G&W Construction Trade R&H
Transportation W&C Business Services Social Services
11 Presented in 6th International Colloquium on Business & Management 2013, Bangkok, Thailand
Graph 1 describes lending value from conventional banking for each economic
sector. Manufacturing and trade sectors received most lending from conventional banks
in Banten, West Java, Central Java, North Sumatera, and South Sumatera. Specifically in
East Java province, conventional banks gave most lending to manufacturing compare to
other sectors. In South Sulawesi, manufacturing and constructions dominates the lending
while in West Sumatera, manufacturing and agricultural have most access to
conventional banks.
Graph 2
Islamic Bank Financing Value in 2010 (Billion Rp)
Source: www.bi.go.id
Graph 2 shows alternative credit access for economic sectors to banking. Quiet
different to conventional banking, Islamic banks in province samples gave most of their
financing to business service and trade sectors. A quiet significant lending in agricultural
sector existed in North Sumatera.
Graph 3 shows lending value from conventional and Islamic banking in Jakarta
province. Lending value from conventional banks relatively high compare to other
provinces, its gap is also quiet significant from Islamic banks.
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
Banten WestJava
CentralJava
East Java SouthSulawesi
WestSumatera
SouthSumatera
NorthSumatera
Agriculture Mining Manufacturing
Electricity G&W Construction Trade R&H
Transportation W&C Business Services Social Services
12 Presented in 6th International Colloquium on Business & Management 2013, Bangkok, Thailand
Graph3. Lending Value of Conventional Bank and Islamic Bank
in Jakarta, 2010 (Billion Rp)
Source: www.bi.go.id
V. Findings
In order to answer the effect of lending activity from Islamic banking and
conventional banking to the development of real sector in provinces sample, we run
equation 1 with cross section data. The results are as follows:
logY = 8.6 + 0.0218 logIB + 0.26 logCB + 0.00000212 Infr + 0.0126 MIBCB
t-stat (39.57) (1.195) (8.75) (0.885) (2.214)
Prob (0.00) (0.252) (0.00) (0.391) (0.044)
R2 0.99992
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
Islamic Bank Conventional Bank
13 Presented in 6th International Colloquium on Business & Management 2013, Bangkok, Thailand
_BANTEN--C -0.284203
_DKI--C 0.464553
_JABAR--C 0.748550
_JATENG--C 0.291848
_JATIM--C 0.744190
_SULSEL--C -0.779469
_SUMBAR--C -0.800500
_SUMSEL--C -0.219334
_SUMUT--C -0.165636
There several points to noted from the equation above:
a. The lending activity of Islamic banks in Banten, DKI Jakarta, West Java, Central
Java, East Java, South Sulawesi, West Sumatera, South Sumatera, and North
Sumatera during period of estimation did not affect the output in those provinces
significantly.
b. The lending activity of conventional banks in provinces samples during period of
estimation affects the output in those provinces significantly at 99 confidence level.
The increase of 1% lending value from conventional banks will increase the output
by 0.26%, ceteris paribus.
c. The greater the margin between Islamic lending rate and conventional banks
lending rate will increase the output by 0.0126%, ceteris paribus.
Table 2
Equation 2 Regression Result
Independent
Variables
Dependent Variable: Sectoral Output
Agri Manuf EGW Constr TRH TWC Services
Islamic Bank
Lending 10.5 -3.68 5.87 3.31 14.54 14.15 1.22
(Prob) (0.00)* (0.46) (0.24) (0.46) (0.29) (0.00)* (0.02)*
Conventional
Bank Lending -0.1 0.53 -0.43 -0.84 -0.01 0.26 -0.00
(Prob) (0.00) (0.18) (0.23) (0.04) (0.74) (0.01) (0.95)
Financing Rate
Margin between
Islamic Bank and
Conventional
Bank
-353.85 -915.62 186.33 272.62 824.09 1041.19 924.15
(Prob) (0.00) (0.39) (0.02) (0.19) (0.51) (0.00) (0.21)
Banten -15476.5 -882.17 64.46 -10515.1 -16737.2 172.5 -11324.7
Jakarta -20688.6 -45962.6 5739.5 47768.8 19326.6 -16006.4 20433.7
West Java 20867.1 91078.3 4021.5 -734.2 27964.3 3473.02 3867.4
Central Java 13331.3 19441.7 -1480.2 -2709.9 -1028.4 1638.9 3135.7
14 Presented in 6th International Colloquium on Business & Management 2013, Bangkok, Thailand
East Java 29287.7 32138.02 1576.6 29.2 66770.1 15588.9 14074.5
South Sulawesi -7405.9 -27123.5 -2513.5 -9485.3 -24550.2 -2891.3 -9270.1
West Sumatera -12275.6 -28586.4 -2605.9 -11615.1 -26857.6 -1654.7 -8256.3
South Sumatera -9601.9 -23135.9 -2705.6 -8188.3 -25688.2 -3680.3 -9229.2
North Sumatera 1962.2 -16967.6 -2096.9 -4550.1 -19199.5 3359.3 -3431.1
Agri : Agriculture, Hunting and Agriculture Facility
Manuf : Manufacturing
E, G, W : Electricity, Gas and Water
Const : Construction
TRH : Trade, Restaurants and Hotels
TWC : Transportation, Warehousing and Communication
Although overall Islamic bank financing activity did not affect output in province
samples significantly, based on economic sector analysis Islamic banks has a major role
in the development of agricultural, transportation, and services sectors. Lending activity
from Islamic banking statistically affect the increase of output in those sectors, with the
confidence level of 95%. The increase of Rp. 1 billion lending value from Islamic banks
will give impact as follows: 1) an increase in agricultural sector output of Rp. 10.5
billion 2) an increase in transportation sector output of Rp. 14.15 billion 3) an increase in
service sector output of Rp. 1.22 billion.
The margin of financing rate from Islamic and conventional bank also played a
major role in increasing output of agricultural, electricity gas and water, as well as
transportation sector. The smaller the margin rate between Islamic and conventional bank
would increase output in agriculture sector.
VI. Conclusions
The role of Islamic banking in Indonesia is still not as large as conventional
banking. This study seeks to assess the potential of the Islamic banking in promoting
economic growth in Indonesia compared to conventional banking in provinces where
Islamic banking lending activities grow significant. Although Islamic banks financing
activity is still low relatively to conventional banking, its significant role can be seen
from the development in agriculture, transportation, and service sectors. Hence, in the
future not only Islamic banks market will grow faster, it can push the development in
sectors that is neglected by conventional banks.
References
15 Presented in 6th International Colloquium on Business & Management 2013, Bangkok, Thailand
Badun, Marijana. 2008. Financial Intermediation by Banks and Economic Growth: a
Review of Empirical Evidence. Institute of Public Finance, Zagreb.
Bjorvatn, Kjetil. 1998. Islamic Economics and Economic Development. Forum for
Development Studies.
Furgani, Hafas & Mulyany, Ratna. 2009. Islamic Banking and Economic Growth:
Empirical Evidence from Malaysia. Journal of Economic Cooperation and
Development. 59-74.
Miwa, Yoshiro & Ramseyer, J Mark. 2000. Banks and Economic Growth: Implications
from Japanese History. Harvard Law School. Discussion Paper No. 289.
www.bi.go.id
16 Presented in 6th International Colloquium on Business & Management 2013, Bangkok, Thailand
Annex 1.
Financing Activity of Islamic Banks
per Province in Indonesia
(Billion Rp)
Province 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
August
DI Aceh 279 538 849 1,617 2,338 2,597
North Sumatera 1,668 2,369 2,840 3,133 4,936 6,210
West Sumatera 398 602 833 1,833 2,476 3,081
South Sumatera 509 761 1,052 1,566 2,272 3,006
Bangka Belitung 39 41 37 135 286 376
Jambi 145 275 411 712 1,194 1,547
Bengkulu 175 201 235 311 421 497
Riau 696 893 1,047 1,589 2,323 2,751
Kepulauan Riau 297 337 401 852 1,380 1,652
Lampung 235 368 515 922 1,501 1,782
DKI Jakarta 12,959 18,172 21,158 26,900 38,981 48,760
West Jawa 3,065 3,766 4,666 8,029 11,945 14,419
Banten 962 841 1,111 2,086 3,707 4,048
Central Jawa 1,240 1,958 2,611 4,170 6,503 7,211
DI Yogyakarta 318 508 629 868 1,451 1,614
East Jawa 1,774 2,566 3,519 5,627 9,075 10,773
Bali 44 73 115 298 545 728
West Kalimantan 364 476 588 720 1,080 1,538
Central
Kalimantan
21 25 37 772 196 323
East Kalimantan 575 706 1,048 924 2,193 2,394
South Kalimantan 570 795 847 1,156 1,477 1,830
North Sulawesi 73 114 145 240 356 427
Gorontalo 71 63 86 168 221 251
West Sulawesi - - 7 53 131 194
Central Sulawesi 98 136 163 390 642 757
South East
Sulawesi
161 180 157 187 310 391
South Sulawesi 858 978 1,098 1,672 2,844 3,436
Maluku 14 16 13 28 54 69
North Maluku 33 36 35 87 123 138
NTB 200 261 396 556 895 1,149
NTT 15 24 33 75 156 182
West Irian Jaya 35 42 62 89 114 127
Papua 53 77 140 272 348 473
Outside Indonesia - - 3 145 183 217
Total 27,944 38,195 46,886 68,181 102,655 124,946
Source: www.bi.go.id
17 Presented in 6th International Colloquium on Business & Management 2013, Bangkok, Thailand
Annex 2.
Regression Result
Dependent Variable: LOG(PDRB?)
Method: Pooled Least Squares
Date: 11/28/12 Time: 13:44
Sample: 2007 2009
Included observations: 3
Cross-sections included: 9
Total pool (balanced) observations: 27
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C 8.600449 0.217325 39.57405 0.0000
LOG(IB?) 0.021758 0.018211 1.194731 0.2520
LOG(CB?) 0.260152 0.029730 8.750470 0.0000
INFR? 2.12E-06 2.40E-06 0.885137 0.3910
MIBCB? 0.012624 0.005703 2.213612 0.0440
Fixed Effects (Cross)
_BANTEN--C -0.284203
_DKI--C 0.464553
_JABAR--C 0.748550
_JATENG--C 0.291848
_JATIM--C 0.744190
_SULSEL--C -0.779469
_SUMBAR--C -0.800500
_SUMSEL--C -0.219334
_SUMUT--C -0.165636
Effects Specification
Cross-section fixed (dummy variables)
R-squared 0.999920 Mean dependent var 11.64827
Adjusted R-squared 0.999851 S.D. dependent var 0.851925
S.E. of regression 0.010390 Akaike info criterion -5.989788
Sum squared resid 0.001511 Schwarz criterion -5.365867
Log likelihood 93.86214 Hannan-Quinn criter. -5.804264
F-statistic 14565.99 Durbin-Watson stat 2.392260
Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000