Tgs-2 Contoh-YK
35
Nama : Yadi Kurniadi NIM : 41606110072 DATA PENJUALAN JPSPT-50 GAN PT. JST INDONESIA t d Ft 0,75 T FIT FIT=Ft+T 1 178 171.5 0.0 171.5 2 160 176.375 0.7 177.1 3 130 164.09375 -1.2 162.9 4 190 138.5234375 -4.9 133.7 5 251 177.130859375 1.6 178.8 6 221 232.53271484375 9.7 242.2 7 231 223.883178710937 7.0 230.8 8 242 229.220794677734 6.7 235.9 9 253 238.805198669434 7.1 246.0 10 263 249.451299667358 7.7 257.1 11 273 259.61282491684 8.0 267.7 12 356 269.65320622921 8.3 278.0 13 165 334.413301557302 16.8 351.2 14 175 207.353325389326 -4.8 202.6 15 143 183.088331347331 -7.7 175.4 16 164 153.022082836833 -11.1 142.0 17 176 161.255520709208 -8.2 153.1 18 213 172.313880177302 -5.3 167.0 19 243 202.828470044326 0.1 202.9 20 254 232.957117511081 4.6 237.6 21 267 248.73927937777 6.3 255.0 231 4548 4426.75357354074 4E+01 4468.435189 t d d - d' Id - d'I 1 178 171.5 6.5 6.5 42.25 2 160 177.1 -17.1 17.1 292.6237891 3 130 162.9 -32.9 32.9 1080.642347 4 190 133.7 56.3 56.3 3175.281999 Peramalan dengan metode Exponential Smoothing with Trand Ad a = 0,75 & b =0,2 b = 0,15 FIT b = 0,15 (d-d) 2 T Feb =( 1−β ) T t−1 + β ( F t −F t−1 ) FIT=F t + T t
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Transcript of Tgs-2 Contoh-YK
Nama : Yadi KurniadiNIM : 41606110072
DATA PENJUALAN JPSPT-50 GANPT. JST INDONESIA
t d Ft 0,75 T FITFIT=Ft+T
1 178 171.5 0.0 171.52 160 176.375 0.7 177.13 130 164.09375 -1.2 162.94 190 138.5234375 -4.9 133.75 251 177.130859375 1.6 178.86 221 232.53271484375 9.7 242.27 231 223.883178710937 7.0 230.88 242 229.220794677734 6.7 235.99 253 238.805198669434 7.1 246.0
10 263 249.451299667358 7.7 257.111 273 259.61282491684 8.0 267.712 356 269.65320622921 8.3 278.013 165 334.413301557302 16.8 351.214 175 207.353325389326 -4.8 202.615 143 183.088331347331 -7.7 175.416 164 153.022082836833 -11.1 142.017 176 161.255520709208 -8.2 153.118 213 172.313880177302 -5.3 167.019 243 202.828470044326 0.1 202.920 254 232.957117511081 4.6 237.621 267 248.73927937777 6.3 255.0231 4548 4426.75357354074 4E+01 4468.435189
t d d - d' Id - d'I1 178 171.5 6.5 6.5 42.252 160 177.1 -17.1 17.1 292.62378913 130 162.9 -32.9 32.9 1080.6423474 190 133.7 56.3 56.3 3175.281999
Peramalan dengan metode Exponential Smoothing with Trand Adjustment a = 0,75 & b =0,2
b = 0,15
FIT b = 0,15 (d-d)2
TFeb=(1−β)Tt−1 + β(Ft−Ft−1 )
FIT=Ft+Tt
5 251 178.8 72.2 72.2 5215.7491636 221 242.2 -21.2 21.2 451.33475037 231 230.8 0.2 0.2 0.025317558 242 235.9 6.1 6.1 36.778311769 253 246.0 7.0 7.0 49.69759087
10 263 257.1 5.9 5.9 34.5556818411 273 267.7 5.3 5.3 28.5497638112 356 278.0 78.0 78.0 6084.52354313 165 351.2 -186.2 186.2 34677.604614 175 202.6 -27.6 27.6 760.621921515 143 175.4 -32.4 32.4 1049.15902416 164 142.0 22.0 22.0 485.357046917 176 153.1 22.9 22.9 524.612975518 213 167.0 46.0 46.0 2112.62725919 243 202.9 40.1 40.1 1606.40367520 254 237.6 16.4 16.4 270.462890821 267 255.0 12.0 12.0 143.6603326231 4548 4468.435189468 8E+01 714.3915161 58122.52198
MSE = 58122.5219821
SEE = 55.3089513926802 MSE = 2,768
SEE=√∑ (d−d')2
(n−f )
SEE=√364133886.321−2
MSE=∑ (d−d' )2
n
(d - d'/d)1003.65
10.6925.2929.66
Peramalan dengan metode Exponential Smoothing with Trand Adjustment
28.779.610.072.512.792.241.96
21.91112.8615.7622.6513.4313.0121.5816.496.474.49
365.8930257
MAPE = 365.893025745184 MAD = 714.39151608374921 21
MAPE = 17.42348 MAD = 34.01864
MAPE=(100n )∑|At−FtAt
|
Nama : Yadi KurniadiNIM : 41606110072
DATA PENJUALAN JPSPT-50 GANPT. JST INDONESIA
t d Ft 0,75 T FITFIT=Ft+T
1 178 171.5 0.0 171.52 160 176.375 0.2 176.63 130 164.09375 -0.4 163.74 190 138.5234375 -1.6 136.95 251 177.130859375 0.4 177.56 221 232.53271484375 3.1 235.77 231 223.883178710937 2.5 226.48 242 229.220794677734 2.7 231.99 253 238.805198669434 3.0 241.8
10 263 249.451299667358 3.4 252.911 273 259.61282491684 3.7 263.412 356 269.65320622921 4.1 273.713 165 334.413301557302 7.1 341.514 175 207.353325389326 0.4 207.715 143 183.088331347331 -0.9 182.216 164 153.022082836833 -2.3 150.717 176 161.255520709208 -1.8 159.518 213 172.313880177302 -1.1 171.219 243 202.828470044326 0.4 203.320 254 232.957117511081 1.9 234.921 267 248.73927937777 2.6 251.4231 4548 4426.75357354074 3E+01 4454.251316
t d d - d' Id - d'I1 178 171.5 6.5 6.5 42.252 160 176.6 -16.6 16.6 276.18285163 130 163.7 -33.7 33.7 1136.4483774 190 136.9 53.1 53.1 2821.570062
Peramalan dengan metode Exponential Smoothing with Trand Adjustment a = 0,75 & b =0,2
b = 0,05
FIT b = 0,05 (d-d)2
TFeb=(1−β)Tt−1 + β(Ft−Ft−1 )
FIT=Ft+Tt
5 251 177.5 73.5 73.5 5402.0391496 221 235.7 -14.7 14.7 214.76474197 231 226.4 4.6 4.6 21.006327448 242 231.9 10.1 10.1 102.12005959 253 241.8 11.2 11.2 124.8920404
10 263 252.9 10.1 10.1 102.98330911 273 263.4 9.6 9.6 93.0935381712 356 273.7 82.3 82.3 6772.14322813 165 341.5 -176.5 176.5 31153.0899214 175 207.7 -32.7 32.7 1071.57698415 143 182.2 -39.2 39.2 1539.59125416 164 150.7 13.3 13.3 176.608156417 176 159.5 16.5 16.5 273.198460418 213 171.2 41.8 41.8 1749.6005719 243 203.3 39.7 39.7 1578.53664620 254 234.9 19.1 19.1 365.488700621 267 251.4 15.6 15.6 244.6954712231 4548 4454.25131614239 9E+01 720.6683023 55261.87984
MSE = 55261.8798421
SEE = 53.9306961927176 MSE = 2,632
SEE=√∑ (d−d')2
(n−f )
SEE=√364133886.321−2
MSE=∑ (d−d' )2
n
(d - d'/d)1003.65
10.3925.9327.96
Peramalan dengan metode Exponential Smoothing with Trand Adjustment
29.286.631.984.184.423.863.53
23.12106.9718.7127.448.109.39
19.6416.357.535.86
364.9101242
MAPE = 364.910124222416 MAD = 720.66830227206421 21
MAPE = 17.37667 MAD = 34.31754
MAPE=(100n )∑|At−FtAt
|
Nama : Yadi KurniadiNIM : 41606110072
DATA PENJUALAN JPSPT-50 GANPT. JST INDONESIA
t d Ft 0,1 T FITFIT=Ft+T
1 178 171.5 0.0 171.52 160 176.375 0.5 176.93 130 164.09375 -0.8 163.34 190 138.5234375 -3.3 135.35 251 177.130859375 0.9 178.16 221 232.53271484375 6.4 238.97 231 223.883178710937 4.9 228.78 242 229.220794677734 4.9 234.19 253 238.805198669434 5.4 244.2
10 263 249.451299667358 5.9 255.411 273 259.61282491684 6.3 265.912 356 269.65320622921 6.7 276.413 165 334.413301557302 12.5 346.914 175 207.353325389326 -1.4 205.915 143 183.088331347331 -3.7 179.416 164 153.022082836833 -6.4 146.717 176 161.255520709208 -4.9 156.418 213 172.313880177302 -3.3 169.019 243 202.828470044326 0.1 202.920 254 232.957117511081 3.1 236.021 267 248.73927937777 4.4 253.1231 4548 4426.75357354074 4E+01 4464.839207
t d d - d' Id - d'I1 178 171.5 6.5 6.5 42.252 160 176.9 -16.9 16.9 284.34390633 130 163.3 -33.3 33.3 1109.1813944 190 135.3 54.7 54.7 2996.908958
Peramalan dengan metode Exponential Smoothing with Trand Adjustment a = 0,75 & b =0,1
b = 0,1
FIT b = 0,1 (d-d)2
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 210
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
d
TFeb=(1−β)Tt−1 + β(Ft−Ft−1 )
FIT=Ft+Tt
5 251 178.1 72.9 72.9 5321.5741546 221 238.9 -17.9 17.9 320.44288937 231 228.7 2.3 2.3 5.064261718 242 234.1 7.9 7.9 61.86855819 253 244.2 8.8 8.8 77.68954573
10 263 255.4 7.6 7.6 58.392822311 273 265.9 7.1 7.1 49.7668157812 356 276.4 79.6 79.6 6343.07148213 165 346.9 -181.9 181.9 33095.7464114 175 205.9 -30.9 30.9 955.148921915 143 179.4 -36.4 36.4 1321.96047716 164 146.7 17.3 17.3 300.715249517 176 156.4 19.6 19.6 386.045436118 213 169.0 44.0 44.0 1935.42695219 243 202.9 40.1 40.1 1607.74550920 254 236.0 18.0 18.0 322.657605421 267 253.1 13.9 13.9 193.4968772231 4548 4464.83920678899 8E+01 717.6696241 56789.49822
MSE = 56789.4982221
SEE = 54.6710248586646 MSE = 2,704
SEE=√∑ (d−d')2
(n−f )
SEE=√364133886.321−2
MSE=∑ (d−d' )2
n
(d - d'/d)1003.65
10.5425.6228.81
Peramalan dengan metode Exponential Smoothing with Trand Adjustment
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 210
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
d
29.068.100.973.253.482.912.58
22.37110.2617.6625.4310.5711.1620.6516.507.075.21
365.8713733
MAPE = 365.871373299721 MAD = 717.66962411533821 21
MAPE = 17.42245 MAD = 34.17474
MAPE=(100n )∑|At−FtAt
|
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 210
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
d
Nama : Yadi KurniadiNIM : 41606110072
DATA PENJUALAN JPSPT-50 GANPT. JST INDONESIA
t d Ft 0,9 d - d' Id - d'I1 178 171.5 6.5 6.5 42.252 160 177.4 -17.4 17.4 301.02253 130 161.7 -31.7 31.7 1007.1102254 190 133.2 56.8 56.8 3229.2511025 251 184.3 66.7 66.7 4446.5758116 221 244.3 -23.3 23.3 544.36985817 231 223.3 7.7 7.7 58.780228588 242 230.2 11.8 11.8 138.45482069 253 240.8 12.2 12.2 148.27125
10 263 251.8 11.2 11.2 125.83604911 273 261.9 11.1 11.1 123.693694112 356 271.9 84.1 84.1 7074.85826413 165 347.6 -182.6 182.6 33338.6634314 175 183.3 -8.3 8.3 68.2090696715 143 175.8 -32.8 32.8 1077.53891116 164 146.3 17.7 17.7 313.906660317 176 162.2 13.8 13.8 189.660853518 213 174.6 38.4 38.4 1472.80749319 243 209.2 33.8 33.8 1144.9911220 254 239.6 14.4 14.4 206.892889521 267 252.6 14.4 14.4 208.4667354231 4548 4443.49315301935 1E+02 696.6874138 55261.61097
MSE = 55261.6109721
SEE = 53.9305649929648 MSE = 2,632
Peramalan dengan metode Exponential Smoothing with a = 0,9
(d-d)2
Ft=Ft−1+α(At−1−Ft−1 )
SEE=√∑ (d−d')2
(n−f )
SEE=√364133886.321−2
MSE=∑ (d−d' )2
n
SEE MSE MAPE MAD0.75 53.1552980671127 2,556 17.38856188 34.712346320.8 53.2900716133332 2,569 17.15838057 34.184603990.85 54 2,594 16.92989516 33.670486740.9 53.9305649929648 2,632 16.70836487 33.17559113
(d - d'/d)1003.65
10.8424.4129.9126.5710.563.324.864.814.274.07
23.63110.66
4.7222.9610.807.82
18.0213.925.665.41
350.8756624
MAPE = 350.875662358421 MAD = 696.68741376029921 21
MAPE = 16.70836 MAD = 33.17559
Peramalan dengan metode Exponential Smoothing with a = 0,9
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 210
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
d
MAPE=(100n )∑|At−FtAt
|
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 210
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
d
Nama : Yadi KurniadiNIM : 41606110072
DATA PENJUALAN JPSPT-50 GANPT. JST INDONESIA
t d Ft 0,85 d - d' Id - d'I1 178 171.5 6.5 6.5 42.252 160 177.0 -17.0 17.0 289.8506253 130 162.6 -32.6 32.6 1059.7466394 190 134.9 55.1 55.1 3037.8767995 251 181.7 69.3 69.3 4797.9921846 221 240.6 -19.6 19.6 384.54695857 231 223.9 7.1 7.1 49.822699858 242 229.9 12.1 12.1 145.41412569 253 240.2 12.8 12.8 164.0657851
10 263 251.1 11.9 11.9 142.117930211 273 261.2 11.8 11.8 138.961620912 356 271.2 84.8 84.8 7185.65277613 165 343.3 -178.3 178.3 31785.4576214 175 191.7 -16.7 16.7 280.318499915 143 177.5 -34.5 34.5 1191.03722916 164 148.2 15.8 15.8 250.376472117 176 161.6 14.4 14.4 206.597310718 213 173.8 39.2 39.2 1533.19421619 243 207.1 35.9 35.9 1286.90108620 254 237.6 16.4 16.4 268.337506321 267 251.5 15.5 15.5 238.923535231 4548 4438.37479145547 1E+02 707.0802215 54479.44162
MSE = 54479.4416221
SEE = 53.5475399309324 MSE = 2,594
Peramalan dengan metode Exponential Smoothing with a = 0,85
(d-d)2
Ft=Ft−1+α(At−1−Ft−1 )
SEE=√∑ (d−d')2
(n−f )
SEE=√364133886.321−2
MSE=∑ (d−d' )2
n
(d - d'/d)1003.65
10.6425.0429.0127.608.873.064.985.064.534.32
23.81108.05
9.5724.139.658.17
18.3814.766.455.79
355.5277983
MAPE = 355.52779827255 MAD = 707.08022154023821 21
MAPE = 16.9299 MAD = 33.67049
Peramalan dengan metode Exponential Smoothing with a = 0,85
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 210
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
d
MAPE=(100n )∑|At−FtAt
|
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 210
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
d
Nama : Yadi KurniadiNIM : 41606110072
DATA PENJUALAN JPSPT-50 GANPT. JST INDONESIA
t d Ft 0,80 d - d' Id - d'I1 178 171.5 6.5 6.5 42.252 160 176.7 -16.7 16.7 278.893 130 163.3 -33.3 33.3 1111.55564 190 136.7 53.3 53.3 2844.3022245 251 179.3 71.7 71.7 5136.0728896 221 236.7 -15.7 15.7 245.44611567 231 224.1 6.9 6.9 47.150964628 242 229.6 12.4 12.4 153.0993259 253 239.5 13.5 13.5 181.5666303
10 263 250.3 12.7 12.7 161.161330211 273 260.5 12.5 12.5 157.226186212 356 270.5 85.5 85.5 7311.58340413 165 338.9 -173.9 173.9 30240.6676214 175 199.8 -24.8 24.8 614.032942715 143 180.0 -37.0 37.0 1365.74132516 164 150.4 13.6 13.6 185.19977717 176 161.3 14.7 14.7 216.73029118 213 173.1 39.9 39.9 1595.55129719 243 205.0 38.0 38.0 1443.15428220 254 235.4 18.6 18.6 345.877201521 267 250.3 16.7 16.7 279.5435134231 4548 4432.804888705 1E+02 717.8766838 53956.80292
MSE = 53956.8029221
SEE = 53.2900716133332 MSE = 2,569
Peramalan dengan metode Exponential Smoothing with a = 0,80
(d-d)2
Ft=Ft−1+α(At−1−Ft−1 )
SEE=√∑ (d−d')2
(n−f )
SEE=√364133886.321−2
MSE=∑ (d−d' )2
n
(d - d'/d)1003.65
10.4425.6528.0728.557.092.975.115.334.834.59
24.02105.3914.1625.848.308.36
18.7515.637.326.26
360.3259919
MAPE = 360.325991940271 MAD = 717.87668381936221 21
MAPE = 17.15838 MAD = 34.1846
Peramalan dengan metode Exponential Smoothing with a = 0,80
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 210
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
d
MAPE=(100n )∑|At−FtAt
|
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 210
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
d
Nama : Yadi KurniadiNIM : 41606110072
DATA PENJUALAN JPSPT-50 GANPT. JST INDONESIA
t d Ft 0,75 d - d' Id - d'I1 178 171.5 6.5 6.5 42.252 160 176.4 -16.4 16.4 268.1406253 130 164.1 -34.1 34.1 1162.3837894 190 138.5 51.5 51.5 2649.8364875 251 177.1 73.9 73.9 5456.6499376 221 232.5 -11.5 11.5 133.00351177 231 223.9 7.1 7.1 50.649145268 242 229.2 12.8 12.8 163.30808879 253 238.8 14.2 14.2 201.4923848
10 263 249.5 13.5 13.5 183.567280711 273 259.6 13.4 13.4 179.216456712 356 269.7 86.3 86.3 7455.76879413 165 334.4 -169.4 169.4 28700.8667414 175 207.4 -32.4 32.4 1046.73766415 143 183.1 -40.1 40.1 1607.0743116 164 153.0 11.0 11.0 120.514665217 176 161.3 14.7 14.7 217.399669618 213 172.3 40.7 40.7 1655.36034619 243 202.8 40.2 40.2 1613.75181920 254 233.0 21.0 21.0 442.802903421 267 248.7 18.3 18.3 333.4539176231 4548 4426.75357354074 1E+02 728.9592727 53684.22854
MSE = 53684.2285421
SEE = 53.1552980671127 MSE = 2,556
Peramalan dengan metode Exponential Smoothing with a = 0,75
(d-d)2
Ft=Ft−1+α(At−1−Ft−1 )
SEE=√∑ (d−d')2
(n−f )
SEE=√364133886.321−2
MSE=∑ (d−d' )2
n
(d - d'/d)1003.65
10.2326.2327.0929.435.223.085.285.615.154.90
24.25102.6718.4928.036.698.38
19.1016.538.286.84
365.1597994
MAPE = 365.159799407095 MAD = 728.95927273467621 21
MAPE = 17.38856 MAD = 34.71235
Peramalan dengan metode Exponential Smoothing with a = 0,75
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 210
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
d
MAPE=(100n )∑|At−FtAt
|
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 210
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
d
Nama : Yadi KurniadiNIM : 41606110072
DATA PENJUALAN JPSPT-50 GANPT. JST INDONESIA
No. Bulan PS 5TP Bulan
1 Jan-07 23924 Jan-082 Feb-07 26397 Feb-083 Mar-07 12104 Mar-084 Apr-07 11840 Apr-085 May-07 11389 May-086 Jun-07 22332 Jun-087 Jul-07 12529 Jul-088 Aug-07 15250 Aug-089 Sep-07 11690 Sep-08
10 Oct-07 5855 Oct-0811 Nov-07 12964 Nov-0812 Dec-07 4823 Dec-08
t y t x y
1 178 178 12 160 320 43 130 390 94 190 760 165 251 1255 256 221 1326 367 231 1617 498 242 1936 649 253 2277 81
10 263 2630 10011 273 3003 12112 356 4272 14413 165 2145 16914 175 2450 19615 143 2145 22516 164 2624 256
t2
17 176 2992 28918 213 3834 32419 243 4617 36120 254 5080 40021 267 5607 441231 4548 51458 3311
t Demand (d) Forcase (d') d - d' Id - d'I1 178 198.0 -20.0 20.02 160 199.9 -39.9 39.93 130 201.7 -71.7 71.74 190 203.6 -13.6 13.65 251 205.4 45.6 45.66 221 207.3 13.7 13.77 231 209.1 21.9 21.98 242 211.0 31.0 31.09 253 212.9 40.1 40.1
10 263 214.7 48.3 48.311 273 216.6 56.4 56.412 356 218.4 137.6 137.613 165 220.3 -55.3 55.314 175 222.1 -47.1 47.115 143 224.0 -81.0 81.016 164 225.9 -61.9 61.917 176 227.7 -51.7 51.718 213 229.6 -16.6 16.619 243 231.4 11.6 11.620 254 233.3 20.7 20.721 267 235.1 31.9 31.9231 4548 4548 -6E-13 917.42857143
MSE = 57265.42857121
SEE = 54.8996350152898 MSE = 2,727
SEE=√∑ (d−d')2
(n−f )
SEE=√364133886.321−2
MSE=∑ (d−d' )2
n
PS 5TP Avearage
11398 1766111466 18931.59128 106169694 107679419 1040410771 16551.510952 11740.510562 129066228 8959
5855129644823
b =
b = 3003016170
b = 1.857143
a = n n
a = 4548 42921 21
a= 196.1429
n∑y.t - ∑y ∑tn ∑t2 - ( ∑t)2
∑y b t ∑
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21050
100150200250300350400 Demand (d)
Forcase (d')Linear (Forcase (d'))
(d - d'/d)100400 11.24
1588.5918367 24.915142.9387755 55.16184.18367347 7.142076.755102 18.16
188.08163265 6.21477.73469388 9.46
961 12.811611.4489796 15.872331.5102041 18.363184.1836735 20.6718925.897959 38.643056.5102041 33.512222.4489796 26.94
6561 56.643826.3061224 37.722674.3673469 29.38274.6122449 7.78
133.89795918 4.76429.08163265 8.161014.877551 11.93
57265.428571 455.4457232
MAPE = 455.445723152899 MAD = 917.42857142857121 21
MAPE = 21.68789 MAD = 43.68707
(d-d)2
MSE=∑ (d−d' )2
nMAPE=(100n )∑|At−
FtAt
|
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 210
50100150200250300350400 Demand (d)
Forcase (d')Linear (Forcase (d'))
PERBANDINGAN METODA PERAMALAN
SEE MSE MAPE MADRegresi linier 54.90 2,727 21.69 43.69
53.16 2,556 17.39 34.71 53.29 2,569 17.16 34.18 53.55 2,594 16.93 33.67 53.93 2,632 16.71 33.18 53.93 2,632 17.42 34.17 54.67 2,704 17.38 34.32 55.31 2,768 17.42 34.02
Exponential smooting a =0,75Exponential smooting a =0,8Exponential smooting a =0,85Exponential smooting a =0,9ES with Trend a = 0,75 ; b = 0,1ES with Trend a = 0,75 ; b = 0,05ES with Trend a = 0,75 ; b = 0,15
Nama : Yadi KurniadiNIM : 41606110072
DATA PENJUALAN JPSPT-50 GANPT. JST INDONESIA
No. Bulan Quantity1 Jan-07 1782 Feb-07 1603 Mar-07 1304 Apr-07 1905 May-07 2516 Jun-07 2217 Jul-07 2318 Aug-07 2429 Sep-07 253
10 Oct-07 26311 Nov-07 27312 Dec-07 35613 Jan-08 16514 Feb-08 17515 Mar-08 14316 Apr-08 16417 May-08 17618 Jun-08 21319 Jul-08 24320 Aug-08 25421 Sep-08 267
Nama : Yadi KurniadiNIM : 41606110072
DATA PENJUALAN JPSPT-50 GANPT. JST INDONESIA
No Bulan Tahun
Satuan2007 20081 Januari 178 165 Pcs2 Februari 160 175 Pcs3 Maret 130 143 Pcs4 April 190 164 Pcs5 Mei 251 176 Pcs6 Juni 221 213 Pcs7 Juli 231 243 Pcs8 Agustus 242 254 Pcs9 September 253 267 Pcs10 Oktober 263 Pcs11 November 273 Pcs12 Desember 356 Pcs
Jumlah 2748 1800 Pcs
Januari
Februari
MaretApril
Mei
Juni
Juli
Agustus
September
Oktober
November
Desember
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Tahun 2007Tahun 2008
Januari
Februari
MaretApril
Mei
Juni
Juli
Agustus
September
Oktober
November
Desember
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Tahun 2007Tahun 2008
