Strategies & Measures to Combat Ozone
12
For our Environment Strategies & Measures to Combat Ozone: Expectations from the NEC D TAIEX Workshop AIR QUALITY POLICY IMPLEMENTATION RELATED TO OZONE Madrid, 21/22 November 2018 Marion Wichmann-Fiebig Head of Unit II 4 „Air Quality“ Federal Environment Agency, Germany
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Transcript of Strategies & Measures to Combat Ozone
For our Environment
Strategies & Measures to Combat Ozone: Expectations from the NEC D
TAIEX Workshop AIR QUALITY POLICY IMPLEMENTATION RELATED TO OZONE Madrid, 21/22 November 2018
Marion Wichmann-FiebigHead of Unit II 4 „Air Quality“Federal Environment Agency, Germany
• EMISSION TRENDS
• IMPACT ON OZONE CONCENTRATIONS
• IMPACT OF CLIMATE AND EMISSION REDUCTIONS
• ANALYSE EFFECTS SEPARATELY AND IN COMBINATION
Implementation of NEC D
Climate Change and Ozone
Conclusions for abatment strategies
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100
200
300
400
500
600
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800
900
1.000
1.100
1.200
1.300
1.400
1.500
1.600
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
ab 2
020
2025
ab 2
030
Emiss
ione
n in
kt/
a
Entwicklung der Emissionen 2005-2016 und Reduktionsverpflichtungen der NEC-RL (EU) 2016/2284
SO2 NOx NOx ohne NFR 3 (Landwirtschaft) NMVOC NMVOC ohne NFR 3 (Landwirtschaft) NH3 PM2.5
National Emission Trends from 2005 to 2016 andreduction committment until 2020/2030 according to NECD
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Percentage Change in Concentrationsdue to NEC Implementation
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Ozone Concentrations in 2005 and in 2030 due to NEC Implementation
<- Increase of annualmean concentrationsfrom 2005 to 2030
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Decrease ofexceedance days from2005 to 2030 ->
2030 – 2005 Ozone concentrations
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• frequency of occurence of hourly concentrations in specified intervals• peak values decrease; medium range values increase
Trend of Ozone Concentrations from 1990 to 2015
KLENOS – Climate, Energie, Ozone, PMWith emission reduction: no exceedance days even under 2050 climate conditions
Without emission reduction: increase of exceedance daysunder 2050 climate conditions
Strategies: Reduce VOC and / or NOx?
• DETAILED ANALYS OF MODEL RESULTS NECESSARY
• CHOICE OF CLIMATE REGIME / REFERENCE YEAR IMPORTANT
• LESSONS LEARNT FROM 2018 (EXTREMELY HOT AND DRY)
• LIMITATION OF MODELS / EMISSION DATA TO REFLECT PEAKSTO BE TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT
E.G. CAMS FORCAST
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22.07.2018
CAMS forecast – „corrected“ values - monitored data
24.07.2018
CAMS forecast – „corrected“ values - monitored data
27.11.2018 / Hier steht der Veranstaltungstitel in 12 Punkt 12
Thanksfor your attention!Marion [email protected]: +49-340-2103-2294
http://www.umweltbundesamt.de/en/topics/air
