Risk selection and matching in performance-based contracting

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Pdqdjhphqw lq Khdowk Fduh/ 7+4,= 40451

Kdqfkdn Q1 D1/ Q1 Vfkodfnpdq/ dqg V1 Kduprq0Zhlvv/ 4<<9/ X1V1 khdowkfduh*v txdolw|0edvhg frp0

shqvdwlrq prgho/ Khdowk Fduh Ilqdqflqj Uhylhz/ 4:+6,= 47608<1

Kloo/ M1 Z1 dqg U1V1 Eurzq/ 4<<3/ Eldvhg vhohfwlrq lq wkh WHIUD KPR2FPS surjudp/ Sulqfhwrq=

Pdwkhpdwlfd Srolf| Uhvhdufk Lqf1/ +PSU Uhihuhqfh Qr1 ::;90836,1

53

Kropvwurp/ E1/ 4<;5/ Prudo kd}dug lq whdpv/ Ehoo Mrxuqdo ri Hfrqrplfv/ 46= 6570731

Kropvwurp/ E1 dqg M1 Wluroh/ 4<;</ Wkh wkhru| ri wkh �up/ Lq= Ulfkdug Vfkpdohqvhh dqg Urehuw

Zloolj/ hgv/ Kdqgerrn ri Lqgxvwuldo Rujdql}dwlrq/ Dpvwhugdp= Qruwk0Kroodqg1

Lqvwlwxwh ri Phglflqh/ 4<<3/ Wuhdwlqj guxj sureohpv/ Zdvklqjwrq/ G1 F1= Qdwlrqdo Dfdghp| Suhvv1

Ndplv0Jrxog/ H1/ 4<;:/ Wkh Qhz Mhuvh| shuirupdqfh pdqdjhphqw v|vwhp= d vwdwh v|vwhp dqg xvhv

ri vlpsoh phdvxuhv/ Hydoxdwlrq dqg Surjudp Sodqqlqj/ 43= 57<0881

Od�rqw/ M1 M1 dqg M1 Wluroh/ 4<<6/ D wkhru| ri lqfhqwlyhv lq surfxuhphqw dqg uhjxodwlrq/ Fdpeulgjh/

PD= PLW Suhvv/ [[LL= :381

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fduh/ Mrxuqdo ri Hfrqrplfv ) Pdqdjhphqw Vwudwhj|/ ;+6,= 6;607641

Ox/ P1/ dqg F1 D1 Pd/ 5334/ Shuirupdqfh0edvhg frqwudfwlqj dqg uhsruwlqj lqfhqwlyhv/ zrunlqj

sdshu1

Pd/ F1 D1/ 4<<7/ Khdowk fduh sd|phqw v|vwhpv= frvw dqg txdolw| lqfhqwlyhv/ Mrxuqdo ri Hfrqrplfv

dqg Pdqdjhphqw Vwudwhj|/ 6= <604451

Pd/ F1 D1/ dqg W1 J1 PfJxluh/ 4<<:/ Rswlpdo khdowk lqvxudqfh dqg surylghu sd|phqw/ Wkh Dphu0

lfdq Hfrqrplf Uhylhz/ ;:= 9;80:371

Prrnkhumhh/ G1/ 4<;7/ Rswlpdo lqfhqwlyh vfkhphv zlwk pdq| djhqwv/ Uhylhz ri Hfrqrplf Vwxglhv/

84= 7660791

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shqvdwlrq dqg frpshwlwlrq/ Ehoo Mrxuqdo ri Hfrqrplfv/ 47= 540761

Qhzkrxvh/ M1 S1/ 4<;</ Gr xqsur�wdeoh sdwlhqwv idfh dffhvv sureohpv/ Khdowk Fduh Ilqdqflqj

Uhylhz/ 44= 660751

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yhuvxv vhohfwlrq/ Mrxuqdo ri Hfrqrplf Olwhudwxuh/ 67= 45690961

Qhzkrxvh/ M1 S1 dqg G1 E|uqh/ 4<;;/ Glg phglfduh*v survshfwlyh sd|phqw v|vwhp fdxvh ohqjwk ri

vwd| wr idooB/ Mrxuqdo ri Khdowk Hfrqrplfv/ := 746091

Qruwrq/ H1 F1/ 4<<5/ Lqfhqwlyh uhjxodwlrq ri qxuvlqj krphv/ Mrxuqdo ri Khdowk Hfrqrplfv/ 44=

43805;1

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Vkruwhoo VP1/ dqg Uhlqkdugw XH/ hgv1/ Lpsurylqj Khdowk Srolf| dqg Pdqdjhphqw= Qlqh Fulwlfdo

Uhvhdufk Lvvxhv iru wkh 4<<3v/ Dqq Dueru= Khdowk Dgplqlvwudwlrq Suhvv= 4840<61

Uhlqkdugw/ X1 H1/ P1 Y1 Sdxo|/ dqg S1 M1 Khog/ 4<:</ Ilqdqfldo lqfhqwlyhv dqg wkh hfrqrplf shu0

irupdqfh ri jurxs sudfwlwlrqhuv/ lq= S1M1 Khog dqg X1H1 Uhlqkdugw/ hgv1/ Dqdo|vlv ri Hfrqrplf

Shuirupdqfh lq Phglfdo Jurxs Sudfwlfhv/ Surmhfw Uhsruw Qr1 :<0381 Sulqfhwrq/ Q1M1= Pdwkhpdw0

lfd Srolf| Uhvhdufk1

Vkhq/ \1/ 4<<;/ Vhohfwlrq lqfhqwlyhv lq d shuirupdqfh0edvhg frqwudfwlqj v|vwhp/ xqsxeolvkhg

pdqxvfulsw/ Ervwrq Xqlyhuvlw|1

Zhlvvhuw/ Z1 dqg P1 F1 Pxvolqhu/ 4<<5/ Fdvh pl{ dgmxvwhg qxuvlqj krph uhlpexuvhphqw= d fulwlfdo

uhylhz ri wkh hylghqfh/ Wkh Ploedqn Txduwhuo|/ :3= 7880<31

54

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55

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Yduldeohv Ryhudoo Suh0SEF Srvw0SEF Suh1 yv1 Srvw

Folhqw Fkdudfwhulvwlfv

Dgplvvlrq Guxj Xvh Iuhtxhqf|

32sdvw 6 prqwk 314< 3157 3149 493=77}

32sdvw 4 prqwk 3157 3155 3159 6;=:7}

rqfh2prqwk 3139 3139 313: 43=73}

5062prqwk 313: 313: 313: 31;:

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5062zhhn 3144 3143 3145 5;=96}

7092zhhn 3139 3138 3139 6=38�

rqfh2gd| 313; 3143 313: 84=7:}

5062gd| 3137 3137 3138 43=88}

7 ru pruh2gd| 313; 313: 313< 57=3:}

Vhyhulw| dw Dgplvvlrq

fdvxdo2h{shulphqwdo 313: 313: 313; :=88}

Olihvw|oh0lqyroyhg 314; 3149 314< 4<=8:}

Olihvw|oh0ghshqghqw 3165 315< 3166 66=;5}

G|vixqfwlrqdo 314< 314; 314< <=8<}

Xqghwhuplqhg 3157 3163 3153 54:=94}

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Ohjdo Lqyroyhphqw 318: 3187 3193 8<=99}

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Djh

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73 ru roghu 314< 314< 314< 3149

Hgxfdwlrq

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Sd|phqw Vrxufh

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Sulydwh Lqvxudqfh 3149 314: 3149 43=3;}

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Wuhdwphqw Prgdolw|

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Qrquhvlghqwldo 3136 3136 3136 3133

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Hydoxdwlrq 4175 53=55}

H{whqghg Fduh 4166 8=58}

Uxudo +srsxodwlrq? 8333, �3=4; �5=:;}

32sdvw 4 prqwk 314: 5=43|

rqfh2prqwk 3136 3157

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73 ru roghu 313; 4158

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05 Orj Olnholkrrg 049867174

Qrwh= -vljql�fdqfh � 3=43/ | vljql�fdqfh � 3=38/ } vljql�fdqfh � 3=34

Wdeoh 7= Hvwlpdwlrq Dqdo|vlv ri Pdwfklqj

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Kdoizd| Krxvh 31<< 9=7:} 31:8 5=:;}

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H{whqghg Fduh 313< 3155 31<5 417:

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SEF-Qrquhvlghqwldo 31:9 6=63} �3=3< �3=63

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3qfh2zhhn �3=;: �44=67} �3=79 �5=:6}

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53 ru |rxqjhu �3=8 �<=37} �3=6< �6=89}

73 ru roghu 314: 6=;4} 3137 3176

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Vwdwh �3=56 �7=:;} �3=56 �5=64|

Rxw0ri0srfnhw �3=5; �8=49} �3=75 �6=::}

Sulydwh Lqvxudqfh 314: 5=;<} 314: 415:

05 Orj Olnholkrrg 595<;18; 993<13:

Qrwh= -vljql�fdqfh � 3=43/ | vljql�fdqfh � 3=38/ } vljql�fdqfh � 3=34

58

Wdeoh 8= Hvwlpdwlrq Dqdo|vlv ri Gxpslqj

Yduldeoh Hvwlpdwh W0ydoxh

Lqwhufhsw �6=:7 �4<=5;}

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Uhvlghqwldo 31; :=39}

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H{whqghg Vkhowhu 31<8 5=75|

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H{whqghg Fduh 31:6 5=57|

Uxudo +srsxodwlrq? 8333, 3154 5=9;}

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5062prqwk �3=36 �3=55

rqfh2zhhn 314; 4159

5062zhhn 313< 31;3

7092zhhn 3176 6=63}

rqfh2gd| 3186 7=85}

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7 ru pruh2gd| 3164 5=8;}

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Olihvw|oh0ghshqghqw 3195 7=48}

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73 ru roghu 3134 3148

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05 Orj Olnholkrrg <:3415<

Qrwh= � vljql�fdqfh � 3=43/ | vljql�fdqfh � 3=38/ } vljql�fdqfh � 3=34

59