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BOOK OF ABSTRACTS

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This Book of Abstracts is published by: Finland Futures Research Centre Turku School of Economics University of Turku, Finland www.utu.fi/ffrc NB There can be changes in the schedule. All changes will be updated on the conference website and the persons concerned will be informed personally. Each presentation is scheduled to last 20 minutes including conversation. Working Group presentations will be available on-line after the conference.

Conference website: www.futureinfinite.fi

TABLE OF CONTENTS:

WG 1: Forests and Climate Change: From Global Trends to Local Landscapes ...................................... 3

WG 2: Institutional Analysis and Energy Transitions ............................................................................... 7

WG 3: North-South Research Collaborations – For Whom and For What? .......................................... 13

WG 4: Climate Change and Corporate Actions ..................................................................................... 18

WG 5: Arctic Futures 2033 – Opportunities and Threats for Sustainability .......................................... 20

WG 6: Climate Change Mitigation Opportunities in Rural Futures ....................................................... 22

WG 7: Climate Governance in the South: Policies and Politics in Mitigation and Adaptation A .......... 27

WG 8: Climate Governance in the South: Policies and Politics in Mitigation and Adaptation B .......... 32

WG 9: Urban Adaptation in a Changing Climate ................................................................................... 38

WG 10: Urban Sustainability ................................................................................................................. 42

WG 11: Reasons and Implications of Climate Change .......................................................................... 45

WG 12: Methodological and Theoretical Perspectives to Climate Change and Futures Studies .......... 47

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WG 1: Forests and Climate Change: From Global Trends to Local Landscapes

Chairs: Salla Rantala University of Eastern Finland/University of Helsinki and Markku Kanninen, University of Helsinki

Room: E103

Wednesday 11th June

13:00−15:00

New and enhanced policy measures for the sustainable use of natural resources in agriculture and forestry

Hujala Teppo1, Rintamäki Heidi2, Ervola Asta1, Rikkonen, Pasi2 and Uusivuori Jussi1. 1 METLA Finnish Forest Research Institute, Vantaa, Finland; firstname.lastname@metla.fi; 2 MTT Agrifood Research Finland, Economic Research, Helsinki and Mikkeli, Finland; firstname.lastname@mtt.fi In this paper, new and enhanced climate-motivated policy measures for the sustainable use of natural resources are investigated using the Delphi method. The objective is to examine the desirability and feasibility of nine novel policy measures relating to agriculture and forestry. Moreover, the effectiveness as well as the economic and social impacts of the measures are assessed.

The Delphi study was carried out by two rounds of an online questionnaire. On the first round a173 experts evaluated the policy measures according to a prepared evaluation framework. On the second round a summary of the first round results was presented to the experts within the questionnaire.

The second survey round concentrated on those policy measures which on the first round gained the greatest positive support from the panel or contained the highest standard deviation as for the advocacy of the measure and its objective. Those six measures were 1) a subsidy for the land consolidation, 2) an obligation to farm perennial grasses on peat soils, 3) subsidies for under 100kVA biogas plants, 4) an investment subsidy for manure handling (best available technology), 5) a revised taxation system for private forestry and 6) reallocation of forestry subsidies. As a conclusion the potential of each scrutinized measure are analysed statistically according to the evaluation framework. In the analysis quantitative results were complemented with the experts’ qualitative argumentation.

Key words: Delphi method, policy formulation, forestry, agriculture, sustainable use of natural resources

Forests for Carbon Sinks: Some Plausible, Probable and Desirables for India

Kumar E. N. Ashok and Sreeganthan Priya 2 Professor and Director, School of Social Sciences, Solapur University, India, email: erantik@gmail.com 2 Student, Finland Futures Research Centre, University of Turku, Finland. email:priya.sreeganthan@gmail.com Responding to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), India as a developing nation has commissioned several missions to mitigate the challenges of climate change. National Mission for Green India one such prominent initiative. Being a tropical country and a country striving for ensuring better standards of living for its population, the Mission is largely associated with expanding forest cover. The challenge is of conservation versus development. Currently, the annual

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growth rate of forests in India is about 0.5 per cent and is expected to accomplish 33 per cent of the geographical area from 23 per cent, at present. Under Millennium Development Goals of UN, India is committed to reduce the poverty level. Against this backdrop, the study identifies demography, economy, social and cultural factors, technology and governance as the key driving forces influencing the future scenario of forest expansion and carbon sinks. The study employs morphological matrix to arrange the set of interrelated variables and combination of situations are worked out and classified as plausible, probable and desirable scenarios. Out of these scenario types, five most desirable scenarios are chosen for detailed analysis using statistical techniques and qualitative narratives.

Value of carbon stocks in land use scenarios

Larjavaara Markku 1,2 and Kanninen Markku 1 1 Viikki Tropical Resources Institute (VITRI), University of Helsinki; 2 Corresponding author: markku.larjavaara@gmail.com Valuing future carbon stocks is nontrivial even if timing of land use change and carbon stocks in land uses are known. This is because the speed of change of carbon stocks after a land use change varies and secondly, in most applications near future is more important than distant future. Often changes in carbon stocks are unrealistically assumed to happen suddenly and average carbon stocks of a fixed period of time are quantified and compared. Commonly used “Land use change matrix” typically quantifies the proportion of the original land use class converted to another land use annually. We suggest that similar matrices and models are used to model biomass and soil carbon change after land use change. Instead of focusing on a fixed period we suggest weighting near future more, following again the same model of constant relative decrease per unit time in weight. Here we present carbon implications of land use scenarios developed with a participatory approach in the Peruvian Amazon and computed with a user friendly spreadsheet application.

Anticipating surprise: Exploring climate adaptation in coupled human and natural systems

Johnson Bart R. 1, Nielsen-Pincus Max 2, Evers Cody 3, Hulse David W. 1, Ager Alan A. 4, Ribe Robert 1 and Bolte John P. 5 1 Landscape Architecture, University of Oregon, USA; 2 Environmental Science and Management, Portland State University, USA; 3 Institute for a Sustainable Environment, University of Oregon, USA; 4 Pacific Northwest Research Station, USDA Forest Service, USA; 5 Biological & Ecological Engineering, Oregon State University, USA. Landscape planners typically derive a single “best” solution for every problem. But rapid global change is forcing human societies to face conditions unlike those ever experienced before. Looking toward the 50−100 year future reveals key uncertainties about climate change impacts and people’s responses that make it impossible to identify the best solution to many problems. We developed an interactive modeling system to simulate the interactions and feedbacks among climate change, wildfire, forest succession, urbanization, and land management within a GIS framework using an agent-based model of human decisions. We performed 50 simulations for each of 12 contrasting scenarios (two climate x two land-use x three wildfire management scenarios) for 50 years (2007-2056) in an 80,000 ha area in Oregon, USA.

We partitioned wildfire risk in space and decomposed risk over time to identify when, where and under what circumstances wildfire may occur and homes may be threatened. Our approach allows planners and citizens to explore large numbers of potential future landscapes so as to identify robust policy approaches that appear likely to perform well despite the uncertainties of global change impacts. Furthermore, our results reveal the complexity of attempting to manage climate impacts while maintaining multiple types of ecosystem services.

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Spatial peculiarities of phenological reactions of trees on climate change of European territory of Russia

Minin Alexander A. 1, Ilyina Irina N. 2, Voskova Alla V. 3 and Pliseckij Evgenij E. 4 1 Research and design Institute of Master plan of Moscow, Head of the department “Preservation and development of the natural complex”, National research university “Highterschool of economics”, Institute for regional studies and urban development of the National research university “Highterschool of economics”, chief research fellow, Doctor of biology sciences, aminin@pochta.ru; 2 Institute for regional studies and urban development of the National research university “Highterschool of economics”, Doctor of economy sciences, iilina@hse.ru; 3 Research and design Institute of Master plan of Moscow, Senior scientist, Candidate of geography sciences, avoskova@yandex.ru; 4 Institute for regional studies and urban development of the National research university “Highterschool of economics”, Research fellow, Candidate of geography sciences, epliseckij@hse.ru. The paper presents the results of the analysis of the ranks of the dates of the deployment of the first leaves and duration of vegetation period of birch (Betula pendula Roth. (B. verrucosa Ehrh.)), as well as the start of flowering bird cherry tree ordinary (Padus avium), mountain ash (Sorbus aucuparia) and Linden (Tilia cordata Mill.) for the period 1970–2010 in the Central part of European Russia to assess trends. Was noted the effect of the differences in phenological reactions in homogeneous climate change amongst the trees of the same species from the Northern and southern parts of areas. If in the Northern part (taiga zone) spring events began to occur to 3–7 days earlier, in the southern broad-leaved forests, forest-steppe) trends do not exist or are positive. This may indicate that the implementation of different mechanisms of adaptation of trees to climate change. In the Northern part there are opportunities for reducing the period of winter rest within the conditions of warming and increasing of the duration of the vegetation period. In the southern part of the further reduction in the duration of the period of winter rest is impossible (in plants are certain biochemical processes), so the change of dates of the onset of phenophases not observed. Proceeding from this, one should expect a further warming (up to certain limits) when reaching the optimal values of the duration of the periods of vegetation and winter rest in the Northern part of the area also stabilize the timing of seasonal events in the trees. Key words: climate change, phenological reaction

15:30–16:30

Multilevel governance for legitimate and effective REDD+ in Mexico

Rantala Salla 1, Hajjar Reem 2 and Skutsch Margaret 3 1 Dr., University of Eastern Finland/University of Helsinki; salla.rantala@helsinki.fi; 2 Dr., University of British Columbia/Rights and Resources Initiative, Forest Sciences Centre, Canada, reem.hajjar@gmail.com; 3 Dr., Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, mskutsch@ciga.unam.mx. Reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD+) requires policy measures globally and nationally as well as effective action at the local level. The concept of multilevel governance (MLG) is increasingly applied to describe and to analyze policy processes and regimes characterized by cross-scale and cross-sector participation by multiple public and private actors, often relying on ad hoc structures and networks beyond democratically elected bodies. While MLG is expected to result in higher environmental performance compared to traditional state-centric governance, it is also said to challenge democracy and to entail legitimacy and accountability deficits, with potential consequences for the sustainability of the regimes. The current study explores the processes and consequences of promoting multilevel engagement in REDD+ planning in Mexico, where the civil society participates actively and many individual states are developing their own strategies. Through attention to existing

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and emerging institutional structures and distribution of power resources in actor networks from the national to regional, state and local levels in Quintana Roo state, we identify factors that affect the procedural legitimacy of the REDD+ process. We combine the mapping of influence pathways with interpretive analysis of the various actors’ conceptualization of the challenges and opportunities for reducing deforestation and forest degradation. Finally, we discuss the implications of the actors’ varying influence in defining REDD+ priorities and strategic action for the effectiveness of the REDD+ regimes.

Responsive Governance in Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation: Participatory Land Use Planning in Angai Village Forest Reserve, Southeast Tanzania

Hyle Maija Licentiate of Administration Sciences, University of Vaasa; PhD Student, University of Eastern Finland, maija.hyle@gmail.com There is a need to understand better how governance related to the climate change is revealing itself in different developing country contexts where governance in general is facing challenges. Climate change is a serious risk to poverty reduction and it threatens to undo decades of development efforts. Adaptation and mitigation strategies, e.g. REDD, may seem to unfairly limit and hinder development, as global North was able to develop their societies without such limitations. United Nations REDD programme offers a possibility for conserving forest and mitigating the effects of climate change. According to the United Republic of Tanzania’s REDD Strategy lack of land use plans is one of the drivers of deforestation and forest degradation in Tanzania, which in turn are remarkable drivers of climate change. At the moment Participatory Land Use Planning is on-going in 24 villages in Angai Village Forest Reserve, Southeast Tanzania. The aim of this research is to study how REDD related interventions, and especially PLUP, effects to responsive governance and what impact the interventions has to the governance. This study would concentrate on few villages and their land use plan processes. Governance here is studied through concepts of decision-making, rights, responsibility and accountability.

Expectations Meeting the Reality on the Ground – Two Cases of REDD+ in Cambodia

Thuon Try1 and Jespersen Kristjan 2 1 Part-time lecturer/researcher with Royal University of Phnom Penh (RUPP) & Research Associate with Finland Future Research Centre (FFRC), Finland, trythuon@gmail.com; 2 PhD Fellow, Copenhagen Business School, kje.ikl@cbs.dk . The reduction of emissions from deforestation and forest degradation, REDD+, is a forest carbon initiative designed to support developing countries, like Cambodia, to preserve their forests in return for providing carbon credits to developed and industrialized countries. At the forefront, these carbon projects have been touted as initiatives that combine livelihood benefits through carbon credits, while sustaining key forest ecosystem functions in the overarching desire for biodiversity protection. Through the study of two Cambodian projects – Seima Biodiversity Conservation Area (SBCA) and Oddar Meanchey Community Forestry Program (OM-REDD+) – an analysis as to the evolution of forest management in one of the least carbon emitting countries is explored. Institutionally, the nature of these initiatives, which require dynamic structures and that are sufficiently isomorphic in nature so as to maximize stakeholder participation are not without their detractors. The focus of this article rests on the local stakeholder dynamics that provide important consideration when interpreting the Cambodian Governments push for the large scale establishment of REDD+ projects within the country. Still further, the tensions resulting from economic land concessions (ELCs) and large-scale development projects pose significant concerns to those living in areas demarcated as forest protection zones. Recommendations, as to processes and policies advocated by inter-governmental as well as national and local actors are presented so as to support the further roll-out of REDD+ initiatives as well as support the Cambodia government’s initiative to maintain forest cover at 60% of the total land area.

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WG 2: Institutional Analysis and Energy Transitions

Chairs: Arho Toikka, University of Helsinki and Laura Kainiemi, Aalto University, Finland

Room: E104 Wednesday 11th June

13:00–15:00 Systems, Policies and Transitions

Sustainable energy in rural areas

Prandecki Konrad Institute of Agricultural and Food Economics, National Research Institute, Poland, kprand@interia.pl Access to energy is one of the most important factors in the development of modern civilization. It is estimated that in developed countries, daily electricity consumption attributable to the person is compared with the work of about 150 people. Furthermore, many modern processes cannot be carried out without a stable access to energy.

Rural development must also take into account the problems of energy supply. Today, it is important not only to ensure the sustainability of access to energy, but also its impact on the environment. For this reason the increasingly important role play concepts of sustainable and low-carbon energy. The purpose of this article is to present the theoretical aspects of providing energy in accordance with the principles of sustainable development. This means not only the use of appropriate technology, but a holistic systemic approach to these issues. It is worth mentioning, that sustainability must take into account not only environmental issues, but also social one, which means, being not only environmentally friendly, but also affordable. The text is mostly based on critical analysis of existing literature.

A framework for overall sustainability assessment of local small-scale energy production – demonstration of an approach

Sokka L. 1, Havukainen J. 2; Sinkko T. 3; Väisänen S.2 and Niskanen A.2 1 VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland; 2 Lappeenranta University of Technology, Finland; 3 MTT Agrifood Research Finland, Finland; Corresponding author: laura.sokka@vtt.fi. Climate change is one of the most difficult challenges facing the humankind during this century. Stabilization of the atmospheric CO2 concentration on acceptable levels implies deep cuts in anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. In order to achieve this, drastic changes in energy supply and use systems are required. New energy production systems need to be designed so that they match these requirements. Sustainable local, small-scale energy systems based on renewable energy sources are one way of addressing this challenge. However, also renewable energy could cause negative environmental or other sustainability impacts, such as eutrophication or emissions of toxic substances. Therefore, comprehensive tools are needed to ensure that the sustainability of the systems is actually materialised.

The purpose of this study is to develop an assessment framework for analysing the overall sustainability (i.e. environmental, economic and social sustainability) of local, distributed energy systems. The assessment framework provides a tool for policy- and other decision-makers to assess the sustainability of different local energy production solutions. It covers all the aspects of the decision-making process ranging from energy availability to the actual measuring of the sustainability impacts. Application of the framework will be demonstrated through case studies.

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Foresight for accelerating system transition towards renewable energy and energy efficiency in housing

Dufva Mikko, Wessberg Nina, Kohl Johanna and Kivisaari Sirkku VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland, Finland Due to climate change there is a clear need, to radically transform many of our existing socio-technical systems to become sustainable. However, there is a lack of ways and methods supporting the transformation process in society. By combining transition management and foresight our paper proposes a new approach that aims at accelerating the transition of a socio-technical system. The approach is based on multi-level perspective and case studies in Finland, in Austria and in the Netherlands in the context of renewable energy and energy efficiency solutions in housing. We describe a participatory process to identify the carriers and barriers of system transition. We tested the process in a full-day workshop aimed at discussing preferable energy options for a new housing district and drivers and barriers for their implementation with different key stakeholders. We analysed the results using the functions of innovation system as structure and drew policy recommendations aiming at accelerating the adoption of the use of renewable energy in housing districts. We argue that the described approach enables moving from images of preferred futures to policy recommendations through the analysis of innovation system dynamics. Therefore, the approach is highly valuable for policy makers and foresight practitioners.

Creative destruction or mere niche creation in policy mixes for low energy transitions? Empirical insights from Finland and the UK

Kivimaa Paula 1 and Kern Florian 2

1 Finnish Environment Institute SYKE, Finland, paula.kivimaa@ymparisto.fi; 2 SPRU Science and Technology Policy Research, University of Sussex, UK; f.kern@sussex.ac.uk. Recently, the innovation literature has paid increasing attention to policy mixes, particularly to the issue of how policy instruments might interact in facilitating innovation. We argue that an area in which policy mixes are particularly important is the field of sustainability transitions, examining change at the level of socio-technical systems from the perspective of environmental sustainability. Transitions imply not only the development of disruptive innovations but also of policies and policy frameworks aiming for systemic change, which is challenging, because it presents a contradictory ideology to that of traditional innovation policy. We argue that ideally innovation policy mixes for transitions might include elements of ‘creative destruction’ aiding sustainability niches to gain ground by also inducing the destabilisation of existing unsustainable socio-technical regimes. Therefore, we propose that policy mixes favourable to sustainability transitions need to involve both policies aiming for the ‘creation’ of new and for ‘destroying’ the old. This paper conceptualises innovation policy mixes for sustainability transitions and applies this to low-energy innovation policy mixes in Finland and the UK. We first develop a novel analytical framework. Subsequently, we analyse whether present policies in Finland and the UK add up to an innovation policy mix suitable for fostering low-energy transitions.

Towards a bright future? The systems intelligent perspective on the management of light pollution

Lyytimäki Jari Finnish Environment Institute, jari.lyytimaki@ymparisto.fi. Light pollution resulting from extensive or excessive use of electric light has become a global environmental change profoundly altering nocturnal environment. Various ecological and health effects are caused because of the disruption of natural cycles of light and dark. Energy production for lighting is also an important source of atmospheric carbon dioxide. The emissions of artificial light into the night environment have increased rapidly during the past decades. This trend is likely to continue or

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accelerate because of adoption of new lighting technology. Additional measures to address the light pollution problem are needed. Based on the results from a public online survey, the household-level efforts taken to reduce light pollution are reviewed and obstacles of action are discussed. The concept of systems intelligence is proposed as useful approach for light pollution management. Systems intelligence builds from systems thinking. It emphasizes personal and active involvement with systems characterised by complex cross-scale interactions and non-linear feedbacks. Systems intelligent approach may be the key for future energy-efficient and low-carbon outdoor illumination that enhances human well-being and produces minimum amount of light pollution. Key words: Artificial light, Environmental assessment, Environmental management, Light pollution, Lighting system, Sustainability 15:30–16:30 Institutions and Transitions for Transport and Mobility

The European Union and assembling biofuel development – governing emissions instead of practices

Humalisto Niko Doctoral student, University of Turku, department of geography and geology, niko.humalisto@utu.fi Based on a topological approach that studies law, policy and space intertwined, I present an analysis how the renewable energy governance of the European Union (EU) has influenced the development of transport biofuels globally. Indeed, my analysis highlights how the implications of the multiple political and legal instruments of the Union should be approached in spatial terms. The EU instruments of governance regulate the spaces of producing, consuming and trading biofuels. On the other hand, the rapid development of biofuels has created externalities, impacts that are mediated from these well-governed spaces into other locations, which I discuss under the rubric of the dislocated spatiality of biofuels. I use this concept to explicate the shortcomings and challenges that are not tackled by the EU. Moreover, my analysis reveals how the recent biofuel policy of the European Commission is increasingly built on a set of instruments that are grounded through the calculation of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, subsequently denoting a drastic change in logic of promoting biofuels in the EU. Instead of focusing on the actual practices of producing, trading and consuming biofuels, the future of biofuels is being construed through the quantitative realm of climate change mitigation.

Road transport CO2 futures according to future makers

Liimatainen Heikki Dr., Transport Research Centre Verne, Tampere University of Technology, Finland, heikki.liimatainen@tut.fi Road transport accounts for around 20% of CO2 emissions in Western countries. Hence, it is necessary to decrease the emissions from road transport in order to mitigate climate change. EU target for 2050 is to achieve a 60% reduction in transport CO2 emissions. This paper presents four CO2 scenarios for year 2050 for both car transport and truck transport in Finland. The scenarios are produced by the future makers, i.e. the students of transport and logistics in the Tampere University of Technology as a part of their education on the environmental effects of transport. The scenarios describe a variety of alternative developments using a systematic approach based on forecasting the changes in indicators such as modal split, fuel consumption and energy CO2 content. The scenarios forecast reductions of 57-95% in car transport CO2 emissions and 19-53% reductions in truck transport CO2 emissions. The paper provides an interesting new insight to the traditional expert scenario dominated discussion on the future of sustainable mobility.

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Building a vision and a roadmap for a national transport research programme − Smart, low-carbon transport system 2030

Tuominen Anu and Auvinen Heidi VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland, anu.tuominen@vtt.fi TransSmart, Smart Mobility Integrated with Low-carbon Energy, is a national transport research programme launched in the beginning of 2013. The programme consists of four research themes: Low carbon energy, Advanced vehicles, Smart transport services and Sustainable transport system. TransSmart pursues to combine knowledge and competences around the four themes and to enable transport research to effectively facilitate establishment of collaboration, strategic partnerships and networks between the industry, the research community and the public sector. The outcomes of the TransSmart programme will contribute to reaching targets for transport greenhouse gas emission reduction and energy efficiency and to generating profitable domestic and international business activity.

To promote synergies within the TransSmart programme and to encourage new collaboration and novel research activities, a roadmapping exercise to support integration and innovation was set up. The paper presents the working process and methods used and the results achieved in the developed, participatory approach. The main outcomes of the work are the programme-level vision of smart, low-carbon transport system 2030 and the system transition roadmap visualising research activities in reaching this vision. Other results include theme-specific vision statements, transport system illustrations differentiating research areas of each theme and two detailed roadmap visualisations, constructed as examples of two research areas combining research topics from all four programme themes.

Thursday 12th June

13:00–15:00 Institutional Transition Issues in Developing Countries

“Rough roads to sustainability – Energy scenarios for fast growing Mekong countries”

Akgün Orkide, Luukkanen Jyrki, Korkeakoski Mika and Kaivo-oja Jari University of Turku, Finland Futures Research Centre, orkide.akgun@utu.fi This study examines the future fuel shares of the three fast growing countries in Mekong region; Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar and their CO2 emission results based on the scenarios constructed with LINDA (Long-range Integrated Development Analysis) model. The LINDA model is an integrated model for the analysis of economy and energy system based on the given input.

The study specifically focuses on the fuel share and CO2 emission scenarios where the inputs to LINDA model are the economic growth rate in different economic sectors and the energy intensities. The impact of economic growth on emissions are analysed based on the slow and fast growth scenarios as well as industrialisation senarios. In additions, the impacts of the changes in energy efficiency on the emissions are compared to baseline scenarios of the countries. The study also includes an analysis of the potential of agricultural residues and forestry residues in Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar as biomass energy sources. The potential to reduce CO2 emissions through substituting the fossil fuel consumption by biomass residue utilization is analysed. Therefore, scenarios for the biomass residue potential in the countries is constructed to 2050, and compared with the LINDA scenarios of energy use.

In nutshell, this study aims to construct scenarios for the energy consumption trends and related CO2 emissions in the fast-growthing Mekong Region countries: Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar. The poossibilities to increase the energy use sustainability is analysed by estimating the potential of biomass residues as energy sources in these countries.

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Forecasting Energy Demand for Barbados: An Eclectic Approach

Mamingi Nlandu Professor of Economics, University of the West Indies, Cave Hill Campus, Barbados Unquestionably, energy is at the core of economic growth/development or better, sustainable development of countries. In this context, the importance of getting accurate forecasts of future energy demand does not need to be elaborated. While forecasting energy demand exercise has been undertaken for many developed countries with various degrees of success, the story is a little bit different for developing countries for which there is rather a paucity of forecasting energy demand studies. Against this background, the present study deals with forecasting energy demand for Barbados, a developing small island country of the Caribbean. Starting from the premise that no model is perfect for forecasting to the extent that each model suffers from some limitations, we use a battery of models (among others, time series: trend, seasonal and cyclical components, ARIMA forecasting models, and regression models including VAR) as foundation for forecasting. The paper particularly targets forecast encompassing and forecast combination to boost the accuracy of energy demand forecasts. As the study is not completed yet, we can only speculate on the results: the eclectic approach will enable us to get reasonably good forecasts of energy demand for Barbados in the short and the long runs.

Proposed Electricity Generation Plan for Jamaica

Brown Noel Associate Professor, School of Engineering, University of Technology, Jamaica

Up until 1995, the Jamaica Public Service Company (JPSCo) held a monopoly on the generation, transmission and distribution of electricity in Jamaica. In 1995, the generation regime was liberalized to include generation of electricity by private producers for their own use or for sale to the national grid. Currently, JPSCo accounts for only 69% of the generation capacity. The remaining 31% of the power is generated by Independent Power Producers (IPP) under the Independent Power Purchase Agreements.

Net Generation in 2013 was 4,725 GWh and it is expected to grow at an average rate of 4.0% for the next twenty (20) years. Also the Net System Peak demand in 2012 was 686.5 MW, this is also projected to grow at an average rate of 3.8% for the next twenty (20) years.

The average age of the generating units owned by the JPSCo is 37.3 years old. These units are characterized by low thermal efficiencies. As a result of these and other issues, Jamaica currently has one of the highest costs of energy in the region.

The proposed expansion plan seeks to replace old and inefficient plants, lower the cost of energy in Jamaica, diversify the fuel option and guarantee energy security. Two options were proposed in the expansion plan; Option 1 adheres strictly to the fuel matrix outlined in the National Energy Policy, while Option 2 takes into account the limitation of resources existing in the country.

Human Mobility in the Context Sustainable Energy Services in Brazil

Moula Md. Munjur E.1, Törrönen Maritta, Maula Johanna, Paatero Jukka and Järvinen Mika 1 Corresponding Author: Dr. Md. Munjur E. Moula, Postdoctoral Research, School of Engineering, Aalto University, Finland, & Research Associate, Department of Social Research, University of Helsinki, Finland munjur.moula@aalto.fi, munjur.sa@gmail.com Human mobility in the context of sustainable energy services in Southern American countries has received great attention from various global actors. In Brazil, for example, many projects, programs, and studies have already been taken to find peoples social positions in structural energy services. It has, however, become evident that human mobility research, which has both socio-economic and socio-cultural impact of ensuring sustainable energy services, has not durably received comprehensive treatment by the previous research. Drawing largely from data qualitatively collected via observation,

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focus group discussions, semi-structured interviews from thirty five people of Sao Paulo state of Brazil. This study examines how existing energy systems have been constructed in Brazil. The results show that non-ethics and politically exploitative energy services cause uncontrolled human mobilization resulting in very high urban unemployment. This study provides theoretical and methodological reflection on the relationship between human mobility and energy services that help policy maker to construct new policies and programs to control rural-urban migration in the context of sustainable energy services in Brazil. Key words: Human Mobility; Energy services; Empowerment.

The Millennium Development Goals and Environmental policy in Bangladesh

Professor Dr. Rahman A. K. M. Motinur and Associate Professor, Dr. Hossain Mohammad Zulfiquar Department of Politics and Public Administration, Islamic University, Bangladesh

Among others protecting our common environment, resolving to “intensify cooperation to reduce the number and effects of natural and man-made disasters” are the major objectives of the Millennium Declaration of September 2000. Bangladesh is one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change due to global warming. The geographical location and socio-demographic features of Bangladesh make it one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change, variability and extreme events. Impacts of climate change are visible in Bangladesh in the form of temperature extremes, erratic rainfall, and increased number of intensified floods, cyclones, droughts, prevalence of rough weather in the Bay. This paper intends to examine the initiatives and policies taken by the government during the last decade and how they are implemented and what are the changes of the policy to adapt and mitigate climate change in order to protect environmental degradation and climate change in Bangladesh? This paper is quantitative in nature and based on the secondary information.

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WG 3: North-South Research Collaborations – For Whom and For What?

Chairs: Eva Kagiri, UniPID, University of Jyväskylä, Kajsa Ekroos, UniPID, University of Helsinki & Kaisa Korhonen-Kurki, University of Helsinki

Room: E105 Wednesday 11th June

13:00–15:00

Climate change immigrants or refugees – adapting to or denying climate change?

Ketola Tarja Adjunct Professor, University of Turku, Finland, tarja.ketola@utu.fi Nowadays most immigrants are well-to-do executives, experts and skilled workers employed by multinational corporations or free academic and artistic souls. At the other extreme are the refugees fleeing persecution. Many of them have been somewhat cynically labelled economic refugees as their motives are intertwined: they come from war zones or otherwise chaotic societies where their life or freedom is threatened and wish to build a normal life with a good livelihood in a peaceful, orderly society. The rich–poor polarization may increase or decrease in the future, depending on how countries and the global community respond to new challenges. Immigration is a part of globalization, just like climate change. The unpleasant future prospect of immigration is climate change immigration, which has taken place all through the ages, but not on such a scale as predicted now.

Currently climate change immigration does not qualify for a refugee status according to the refugee convention. A family from the sinking South Pacific nation of Kiribati tried to challenge this view in New Zealand in 2013, but the fact that the Kiribatians are facing risk to their health and lives as rising ocean levels are contaminating drinking water, killing crops and flooding homes did not convince the High Court. Soon billions of people will have to leave their homes on all continents because of rising sea levels, or persistent droughts and water shortages, or unrelenting storms, floods and contaminated water.

At our longitude the direction of climate change exile is from Africa to Southern Europe, then to Central Europe, and finally to Northern Europe, when drought and water shortage drive the masses further north. In North and South America and Asia the development will be more complicated since all three extreme weather phenomena interact there. The same applies to Australia: intolerable heat, drought and water shortage are spreading from the centre of the continent towards the coastal areas on which the sea water is rising; simultaneously storm floods make the strip of land in between uninhabitable. It is predicted that the whole population of the Australian continent will have to be evacuated – only the island of Tasmania will be inhabitable in the late 2030s. Hence a responsible government would start looking for more land elsewhere and negotiate on its purchase or lease. The Maldives are already saving all their tourist revenue for the purchase of a new homeland.

Bigger nations have bigger problems, but any developed country can afford to plan organized climate change immigration, if they do not deny its need. Conversely, most inhabitants of developing countries will be left to their own devices, and these billions of refugees will cause a global chaos, if the global community does not acknowledge the situation and start cooperating to adapt to the human consequences of climate change.

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Climate Refugees as Mobile Technology Users in the Future. Scenario-Based Insights on the Challenges and Possibilities.

Rissanen Kati PhD candidate, University of Turku, Finland One of the likely consequences of climate change will be environmental migration. For example rising sea levels, increased droughts, floods and severe storms, as well as human conflicts increase the likelihood of permanent or temporary relocation of population internally and internationally. We know there are already mobile technology users among the refugees in today’s world. Mobile technology is for example being used to connect family members, and applications can help to provide education in refugee camps. Most likely the climate refugees in the future will also have mobile devices with them in active use. What is not so certain is the nature of the climate migration in the future, which reflects on the challenges that using mobile devices might face, and the possibilities that mobile technology can offer.

This paper will examine the dynamics and possible relationships of climate migration and mobile technology innovations in the future by incorporating methods such as literature study, expert interviews and futures table to form three scenarios: Slow Adaptation, Rapid Events and Mobile Way of Life. The scenarios address the questions of climate change adaptation and migration, urbanization, population mobility and its policies, technological development and mobile innovations, hardware and software solutions.

Grass-roots Images of Futures about the Global South

Van Leemput Maya Dr., Reelfutures – Agence Future, Belgium, maya@reelfutures.net, mvleempu@vub.ac.be While climate change is a global issue, communities in the global South are hit particularly hard by its impact on their environments1. Yet, members from these communities are rarely consulted about the futures that may emerge for them. If civil society actors and developing countries are limited in their engagement in global governance for sustainable development2, then members from rural and urban communities in Africa are even more disenfranchised.

This paper proposes that research collaborations, introducing participatory approaches and methods for the intercultural co-creation of images of the futures, can empower communities in the global South who face the impact of climate change. Such participatory futures projects, resulting a.o. in a range of grass roots images of the futures, aim to inspire and move into action citizens and policy makers from the global North and South alike.

As a case study this paper presents research based on the co-creation of images of the futures with 40 young adults and 16 artistis from Lubumbashi in the Democratic Republic of the Congo conducted by the author from 2012 till 2014.This paper focuses on the relevance of the participatory and intercultural approach of the Maono project to the actors involved as well as the nature of collected images concerning sustainable development and climate change.

Roberts, J. Timmons and Bradley C. Parks. A climate of injustice: Global inequality, north-south politics, and climate policy. The MIT Press, 2007. Fisher, Dana R. and Green, Jessica F. Understanding Disenfranchisement: Civil Society and Developing Countries' Influence and Participation in Global Governance for Sustainable Development. In: Global Environmental Politics, August 2004, Vol. 4, No. 3, Pages 65-84

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Connections of Bhutan’s Gross National Happiness Education Policies and Global Education for Sustainable Development

Ahonen Päivi Faculty of Education, University of Oulu, Finland, paivi.ahonen@fcg.fi; paivi.ahonen@oulu.fi The global community has shown a lot of interest in Bhutan’s development policy of Gross National Happiness, GNH. Reasons for the interest are the world leaders’ efforts to find ways to move towards sustainable wellbeing, including policies of education for sustainable development.

The final paper, based on the ongoing research for doctoral thesis, will analyze Bhutan’s GNH- based education and draw parallels with the global sustainable education development strategies. The multi-disciplinary expert group report of the UN initiative “Happiness: Towards a New Development Paradigm”, contributing to the process of post 2015 development agenda, submitted from Bhutan to UN on 13th of Dec 2013, will be reviewed in this conference paper (http://www.newdevelopmentparadigm.bt/2013/12/13/bhutan-submits-the-ndp-report-to-the-un/ )

Bhutan’s education policies and practices will be also analyzed in the context of UN Decade of Education for Sustainable Development, 2005−2014.

Twenty eights interviews in July 2012 in Bhutan, on GNH and sustainable development, were carried out in the Ministry of Education, Royal Education Council, higher education and research institutions, municipality education authorities and teachers.

On becoming a disciple of the disciplines: how development of learning organisation capabilities supports organisational sustainability

Lehto Marise MSc Educational Management, marise.lehto@mla.fi Purpose: Managing change successfully is arguably challenging for organisations today. Whilst many rise successfully to meet this challenge, the speed of change adds to an already extremely complex area. Therefore, development of learning organisation capabilities may help cope with this change thus ensuring development of organisational sustainability. This paper explores ways of developing those capabilities and reports on an empirical study done with a Finnish learning consultancy.

Design/Methodology: Drawing on the principles of action research, the study was conducted with employees using two instruments: a survey and semi-structured interviews. By using a social constructivist approach to grounded theory, a model for organisational sustainability was developed.

Findings: The main conclusions were that ongoing exploration of mental models is vital with reflexivity playing a key role in developing organisational sustainability.

Research limitations / implications: Action research is a highly contextualized approach and therefore the conclusions reached may not be applicable to others. However, the practical model of inquiry developed to conduct and implement an action research investigation may be of use.

Key words: sustainability, learning organisation, reflexivity, action research

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15:30–16:30

Higher Education Institution and its role on new multidisciplinary concepts to mitigate the Climate Change.

Ing. Pas. Costa Orlando Escalona 1, Ing.Msc.PA. Seisdedos Luis Vasquez 2, Lic.Pas. Henriquez Jorge Luis Bonzon 1, Ing. Diaz David 2, Ing.PI. Toranzo Noel Machado 1, Ing.PI. Ofarril Francisco Deler 1. Ing.Msc.PA. Castillo Alvaro Aguilera 2 and Ing. PI. Milanes Alfredo Perez 2

1 Applied Renewable Energy Group, Mechanical Engineering Faculty, Universidad de Oriente, Venezuela, orlando@fim.uo.edu.cu , orlandoescacosta@gmail.com 2 Energy Data Analysis Group, Department of Automatic Control, Electrical Engineering Faculty, Universidad de Oriente, Venezuela, lvazquez@fie.uo.edu.cu , lvazquez0211@gmail.com A preliminary study to mitigate the Climate Change in Cuba is presented. From a university perspective as a Higher Education Institution, a set of proposed strategies are combined. Starting from a right background on the renewable energy issue, the authors introduce new concepts. They take into account of advantage the own possibilities of a university as to be the alma mater in higher education from human resources education coming from several provinces. University framework permits human resources availability with engineering students coming from different town. University placement is benefited with itself human resources location and also with the feasibility in the correspondent location of natural renewable sources. These facts are integrated by their authors permitting a link between the theorist and practical knowledge. Examples are shown on application such as: solar cooking, solar heating, photovoltaic application, co-generation by sugar cane bagasse in sugar cane factories, etc. Keywords: Climatic change, renewable energy, human resource education, energy data processing.

Measures of Growth: Examining the pertinence of educational testing futures to climate change engagement

Rich-Tolsma Matthew Executive Director, Experience Integral Foundation; Certified Lectical Consultant, Research Intern: Lectica, Inc; Utrecht, The Netherlands

The last century has seen enormous advances in the science of learning, and formal education even at post-secondary level has become accessible to steadily increasing numbers of people across the planet; subsequently significant development has occurred in the field of standardized testing, the systematic entrenchment of which has led to a burgeoning educational testing industry. The first part of this paper will attempt a meta-theoretical contextualization of the development and contemporary role of educational testing--particularly with reference to constructing an argument concerning the pivotal role testing plays in supporting and transforming worldview formation--and use this as a basis for imagining preferred educational testing futures. This will be attempted through employing an adapted form of Inayalatullah's Causal Layered Analysis (CLA) incorporating elements of Scharmer's Theory U (a combination which Hampson & Rich-Tolsma previously employed in examining the movement from late-modernism to reconstructive post-modernism).Through this process the role of testing as a lynch-pin in educational transformation will be established. The second part of the paper will advance an argument concerning the ways in which educational testing's role in the transformation of worldview is indispensable to transforming the ways in which the wicked dilemma of climate change is engaged.

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Taiwan’s Scientific Research on Climate Change: its Evolution, Influence and Future

Gin-Rong Liu 1, Ho-Ching Lee 2, Chia-Chi Lee 3, Yi-Chang Chiang 3 1 Center for Space and Remote Sensing Research, National Central University, Taoyuan County, Taiwan (R.O.C.), 2 Center for General Education, National Central University, Taoyuan County, Taiwan (R.O.C.) 3 Center for Environmental Studies, National Central University, Taoyuan County, Taiwan (R.O.C.), Corresponding author: Chia-Chi Lee, d94544001@ntu.edu.tw This article firstly discusses the importance of scientific research through knowledge production, sociology of knowledge, policy implementation and the research-policy nexus and then analyzes the scientific research impact to Taiwan. Secondly, the past scientific research on climate change of Taiwan is focused exploring its origin, context, evolving process and real benefits. Thirdly, the weaknesses of past Taiwan’s scientific research on climate change are specified: (1) a lack of transdisciplinary research, (2) a lack of social scientific research and (3) being incapable of filling the gaps between research and policy. We finally conclude that the need of more and more adaptation research is urgent and propose the adaptation roadmap for a sustainable future of Taiwan. Key words: Climate change, Scientific research, Research-policy nexus, Taiwan

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WG 4: Climate Change and Corporate Actions

Chair: Marileena Koskela, University of Turku, Finland

Room: E105 Thursday 12th June

13:00–15:00

Visions for the mining industry in the future low-carbon society in Finland

Tuusjärvi M.1,*, Kihlman S.1, Lehtilä A.2, Mäenpää I.3, Vuori S.1, Koljonen T.2 and Lauri L.S.1 1 Geological Survey of Finland; 2 VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland; 3 Thule institute, University of Oulu; Corresponding author: mari.tuusjarvi@gtk.fi. Finland has undergone a marked growth in mining activity in recent years, driven by a persisting demand in international markets. At the same time, the pressures towards lowering the carbon intensity of societies are increasing and encourage seeking breakthroughs in energy technology development. The focus of this study was to model the role of the Finnish mining industry in reaching the 80% GHG emission reduction target, with special emphasis on the resources of high-tech metals, which are closely associated with the key energy technologies of the future. The results show variations in the intensity of mining and related GHG emissions between the studied scenarios. Greater investments to a low carbon society lead to an increasing need for high-tech metals but may reduce the demand for base metals, which dominate the present metallic mining production in Finland. Opposite development could be triggered by unstable political or economic conditions or in case of implementing policy-as-usual. The key aspect of the mining industry in reaching the reduction target is to invest in energy efficiency and use of biofuels. In addition, investments in clean-tech mining machinery and processing technology support the reductions in climatic and other environmental effects of mining in the future.

Climate change in corporate social responsibility reports

Koskela Marileena 1 and Aarras Nina 2 1 University of Turku, Finland Futures Research Centre, marileena.koskela@utu.fi; 2University of Turku, Turku School of Economics, Finland Climate change is today undoubtedly the major environmental concern facing the humanity. Energy intensive industry is the main contributor to the climate change and, therefore, their actions are urgently needed. One way for the corporations to highlight their climate change actions is to report them in the corporate social responsibility (CSR) reports. The content analysis research on CSR reports is popular but we discovered there is a research gap in the analysis of reported climate change actions. The aim of this paper is to explore the climate change disclosure of three case companies. We analysed the meanings that the case companies place on climate change in the CSR reports.

Three Finnish companies, all representing three different business sectors (aviation, energy, financing), are used as case studies here. The content analyse includes CSR reports of each company from five years period. In the analysis, we focused on the keywords addressing climate change and issues closely related to climate change.

The importance of climate change is clearly understood in the case companies. The five years of reporting resulted in total of 3275 sections dealing with climate change. The corporate meanings of

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climate change can be categorized in three groups: First, climate change is seen as the most significant environmental issue. Second, climate change acts as a pressure to develop the technology and the corporate actions. Third, climate change is represented both as an economic risk and an economic opportunity.

This research contributes to the research of content analysis of CSR reports by adding evidence on corporate reporting of climate change. The reported corporate actions related either with the climate change mitigation actions or with adaptation actions. However, the adaption actions did not receive the same emphasis as the mitigation actions in the reports. We conclude that this indicates the companies’ uncertainty in estimating the actual impacts of the climate change to the operating environment in the future.

The business case for environmental sustainability: embedding long-term environmental strategies that enhance economic performance

Dooley Ken Doctoral Candidate, Aalto University School of Engineering, Finland, kenneth.dooley@aalto.fi The business benefits that can be harnessed by embracing sustainability have been widely discussed and verified, however the potential has only been fully realised by a small portion of organisations. This paper aims to present a clear business case for corporate sustainability in order to increase investments in this area. The core focus is on the tangible economic benefits that can be realised through environmental strategies such as risk reduction and efficiency gains. The aim is to show that sustainability can be an opportunity rather than an obligation and that not only can environmental and economic performance be optimised simultaneously but that economic performance can be optimised through environmental strategies. This will increase competitive advantage while supporting climate change mitigation. The paper also highlights the current drivers that provide motivation for environmental performance improvement such as global trends towards resource efficiency and the exposure to long term environmental risks. Sustainability is a multidimensional subject that involves a diverse range of operational processes and it is argued that a greater portion of sustainability resources should be invested in strategically integrating sustainability into core business practices. Embedded sustainability is used to describe companies that have a high level of sustainability integration. Keywords: Sustainable business, sustainable enterprise, environmental economics, embedded sustainability, resource efficiency

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WG 5: Arctic Futures 2033 – Opportunities and Threats for Sustainability

Chair: Sirkka Heinonen, University of Turku

Room: E122 Wednesday 11th June

13:00–15:00

Uncharted Waters: Alternative Futures of the Arctic

Sweeney, John A.1 and Yeoman, Guy2 1Hawaii Research Center for Futures Studies, USA, john.sweeney@hawaii.edu 2 Arctic Futures In September 2013, the successful voyage of the Nordic Orion − the first bulk-freighter to traverse the Northwest Passage − ignited debates and enlivened new concerns over the Arctic's accessibility for shipping and resource extraction. Competing claims over the region's potential riches have escalated in recent years. In December 2013, Canada claimed that Santa and Mrs. Claus lived in North Pole, Canada, and issued them passports. This symbolic gesture was accompanied by a petition to the U.N. requesting an expansion of the country's Atlantic sea boundary. In response, Russia re-deployed “combat-ready” troops to the Arctic, and it was only seven years earlier that Russia sanctimoniously planted a flag on the Arctic's sea floor. Given the complex geopolitical dynamics surrounding the Arctic, some expect tensions to complicate, if not overwhelm, the limited mandate of the Arctic Council, which is an inter-governmental forum convened to promote “cooperation, coordination and interaction among the Arctic states.” In light of recent events, climate forecast models, and a host of emerging issues, from geoengineering proposals to the potentiality for armed conflict, this paper utilizes the Manoa School scenario modeling method to explore alternative futures for the Arctic with an emphasis on governance and security challenges and opportunities.

Governing adaptive change towards sustainable economy in the Arctic

Similä J.1, Juutinen A. 2, Tuusjärvi M. 3*, Vuori S.3, Tolvanen A.2, Tuulentie S. 2, Eilu P. 3 and Naskali A.2 1 University of Lapland, Finland; 2 Finnish Forest Research Institute, Finland; 3 Geological Survey of Finland, Finland; Corresponding author: mari.tuusjarvi@gtk.fi. One key driver shaping the future of the Arctic in Finnish Lapland is the development of mining industry. Recent international evaluation have placed Finland as the globally most favoured country for targeting mining operations (Wilson et al. 2013) and these operations remain focused on the northern and eastern parts of the country. Large-scale mining may negatively affect other livelihoods which depend on green infrastructure, such as tourism, forestry and reindeer herding. The tension between livelihoods calls for mechanisms that are able to support change towards sustainable economy in an adaptive fashion. In our approach spatial geological knowledge and mining scenarios are combined to improve the understanding of the diversity of mining projects. This, in turn, contributes to a better identification and anticipation of risks. Furthermore, we will proceed to incorporate the results of this analysis into an integrated spatial assessment of the economic, ecological and social values of competing land uses in Arctic conditions. Analyses of adaptive law and conflict resolution that seek to articulate mechanisms for

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adaptive change towards a sustainable economy will complement the study. Ultimately, the goal is to support policy making, legal drafting and implementation in the Arctic.

Imagining the future of the Arctic: How to simulate the Greenhouse Effect of methane under the Sea Ice of the Arctic

Xiao Yi 1, Chu Jianxun 1 and Sun Liguang 2 1 Science Communication Research Center, University of Science and Technology of China; 2 Institute of Polar Environment, University of Science and Technology of China; corresponding author: Dr. Jianxun CHU chujx@ustc.edu.cn According to the climate models and scenarios raised by IPCC(International Panel on Climate Change) and ACIA(Arctic Climate Impact Assessment) in their current reports, such as the AOGCM(Atmosphere-Ocean Global Circulation Model), Arctic area is projected a large mean temperature increase by the mid-21st century compared to the present climate. However temperature sensitivity of Greenhouse Effect by the methane(CH4) production has been proven stronger than carbon dioxide(CO2). Continuous melting of sea ice in Arctic Ocean will drastically increase methane emission to atmosphere, which impacts significantly on regional and global carbon cycles and climate systems in the future. The Arctic research group from the Institute of Polar Environment(IPE) by USTC(University of Science and Technology of China) and CAAA(Chinese Arctic and Antarctic Administration) integrated the climate change models and the future policy-making analysis to show a general understanding about how sea ice in Arctic affected regional and global climate change, as well as the Chinese environment, energy and trade circumstance. Finally, this paper will give some policy suggestions to strengthen international cooperation between Arctic and Near-Arctic countries in the future. Note: This research supported by the CAAA (Chinese Arctic and Antarctic Administration) with the strategy project No. JDZX20110405-GP-3-1. He, X., Sun, L., Xie, Z., Huang, W., Long, N., Li, Z., & Xing, G. (2013). Sea ice in the Arctic Ocean: Role of shielding and consumption of methane. Atmospheric Environment, 67, 8-13.

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WG 6: Climate Change Mitigation Opportunities in Rural Futures

Chairs: Vilja Varho & Pasi Rikkonen, MTT Agrifood Research Finland

Room: E110 Wednesday 11th June

13:00–15:00

Analysis of Farmer’s Livelihoods under Climate Change and Adaptation at the Shores of Lake Chad, Nigeria

Mustapha S.B. 1; Undiandeye U.C.1 and Gwary D.M. 2 1 Department of Agricultural Extension Services, University of Maiduguri, Nigeria 2 Department of Crop Protection, University of Maiduguri, Nigeria The study analysed livelihoods of farmer’s in changing climatic condition at the shores of Lake Chad, Nigeria. Multi-stage random samplings techniques were used to select 180 respondents that were administered with interview schedules. Data were analysed by use frequencies, percentages, means scores and logit regression analysis. The results indicated that majority of the respondents were youth (61%), male (83%) and married (76%). Thes results equally revealed that most (63%) of the respondents had 6-12 years of farming experience having attended one formal education or the other. The study indicated that livelihood strategies for most of the respondents were crop farming and irrigated farming. Most of the respondents reported that the effects of climate change on their livelihoods were high. The study indicated that the most important adaptation strategies employed under the changing climatic condition were drought tolerant crops, changing planting dates and irrigated farming. The binary logit model revealed that farming experience, educational level, access to extension services and access to credit facilities were statistically significant and positive to influence the adaptation strategies employed under the changing climatic condition among the respondents in the study area. The study further revealed that the most important factors required by respondents for sustainable livelihoods under the changing climatic condition were finance and capacity building on climate change adaptation. The study recommended that credit facilities should be provided, improved extension services should also be pursued with vigour coupled with capacity building on climate change adaptation issues in the study area. Key words: Climate change, Livelihoods, Shores, Lake Chad, Nigeria

Resilience of the poorest: coping strategies and indigenous knowledge to live with the floods in Northern Namibia

Hooli Lauri Department of Geography and Geology, University of Turku, Finland, lauri.hooli@utu.fi Northern Namibia has always experienced extreme droughts and floods. However, only recently, the annual floods have turned to become major socioeconomic disasters. This is a result of rapid changes in environment and social structures, combined with the failures of spatial planning and increases in annual rainfalls. Taking a critical approach to the socio-ecological resilience this research studies local resident’s coping strategies to survive with these increased floods. Particular interest is placed on learning processes and the role of indigenous knowledge which has been emphasised as a potential

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source of resilience in both theory and practice. The data is based on hybrid ethnographic methods, including a household questionnaire, focus group meetings, interviews and field observations. The findings reveal that the rapid changes associated with urbanisation, modernisation and population growth, together with the multiple stressors related to the poverty, have vitiated the communities coping strategies setting residents more vulnerable to the flood events. Especially these changes have brought challenges to the use of indigenous knowledge, as it is based on depth understanding and the observations of the local environment. Keywords: resilience, indigenous knowledge, floods, Namibia

Factors affecting women's land ownership in Namibia

Partio Hanna University of Helsinki, Finland, hanna.partio@helsinki.fi

Land ownership in Namibia is divided into private commercial ownership and communal land tenure. Women seldom own land even though they take care of 90 per cent of the cultivation in communal land areas and produce most of the food. With unsecure land rights and limited opportunities for earned income, women have less capacity to invest in improved conservation practices. Thus, the effects of climate change can be mitigated by improving women´s land rights. This study examines the factors affecting women´s land ownership in Namibia; the study is based on a literature review. According to earlier studies, cultural and social norms and customs are the most significant factors that restrict women's land ownership. The lack of education also affects women's land ownership strongly. Rural women, especially, are often unaware of legislation affecting their rights. The resettlement and land distribution programs, supported by the government, are not considered effective in promoting women's land ownership. This is caused by the weak financial position by women. It would be possible to mitigate the effects of climate change indirectly by developing and monitoring land laws and reforms in order to make progress in women´s land ownership in Namibia's rural areas.

Organic and Biodynamic: fading the differences in strategic presentation of the alternative food system?

Mikkola Minna1 & Asioli Daniele2 1 University of Helsinki Ruralia Institute, Finland, minna.mikkola@helsinki.fi 2 Consumer and Sensory Science, Division of Food Science – NOFIMA, Norway, daniele.asioli@nofima.no The organic food presents undoubtedly the best known ‘alternative’ food production mode as one member of the family of extensive agriculture. The biodynamic production mode seems to be far less available on the market and understandably has gained more limited recognition by consumers. However, both production modes may also be seen to join the ‘rescue’ operation for more sustainable food systems. Organic and biodynamic produce seem to be deploy the same market channels such as organic retail chains. Furthermore, there seems to be consolidation of ownership structures including both organic and biodynamic farmers in large wholesaler operations. However there are also important differences between these two production modes, rendering their contributions highly dissimilar. This paper analyses first the conceptual differences of these two production modes and second, explores their contribution in terms of socio-economic structural novelties for ‘healing’ the food system. The paper deploys Danish, German and Italian case data to find out that there are significant restructuring efforts made on the biodynamic sector regarding both more equal income generation and inclusion into large-scale corporate structures of biodynamic farmers. Both novelties can be seen to signal a challenge to more conventional food system structures, infested with their lamented socio-economic inequalities and environmental destruction.

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Initial Designs of a Photovoltaic PEM Electrolysis System for the Production of Hydrogen for Domestic Cooking

Reid Dwight, Wilson Earl and Baker Steve University of Technology, Kingston, Jamaica The preparation of meals is an essential part of everyday human life; however the continuing increase in the cost of energy has made this essential task more and more difficult from an economic perspective. This is most evident in developing countries but it is widely accepted that the current usage of fossil fuels for essential purposes is unsustainable, so as time goes by this problem could also become pervasive in some socioeconomic sections of developed countries as well. The problem is further compounded by the substitution of trees for cooking fuel which causes widespread deforestation that worsen the effects of climate change. This paper presents the initial research and design of a system for the production of hydrogen from sustainable solar power and the necessary technologies for its safe and reliable use for domestic cooking. The photovoltaic and polymer electrolyte membrane (PEM) electrolysis system design is presented as well as a working roadmap and current progress in establishing parameters and developing technologies necessary for the safe storage, monitoring, control and burning of hydrogen gas for everyday cooking in the home. Key words: Hydrogen, PEM Electrolysis, Photovoltaic, Sustainability, Climate Change

Renewable energy futures – A Delphi study of the opportunities and obstacles in distributed renewable energy growth up to 2025

Varho Vilja, Rikkonen Pasi, Koistinen Laura and Rasi Saija Agrifood Research Finland MTT, Finland, corresponding author: vilja.varho@mtt.fi Decentralised energy production and markets for renewable energy technologies are expanding. Policies play a major role, as growth is supported by, e.g. EU policies for renewable energy and subsidy systems introduced in all EU member states.

Small-scale energy production in households, farms or small enterprises has received relatively little attention to date. Distributed systems can, however, help in achieving the official targets, as well as offer economic opportunities for small-scale energy producers and the producers, retailers and installers of energy devices. The opportunities and challenges of this sector in Finland were assessed in this study.

Data was gathered using a Delphi-based method. 26 experts within the renewable energy technology chain answered a questionnaire in interviews or online. Second-round questionnaire was sent online. Results were discussed and further elaborated in a workshop.

Based on preliminary results, prevailing attitudes, imperfect steering mechanisms and lack of reliable information and know-how were, among others, obstacles for distributed energy production in Finland. Adequate subsidies and administration, as well as service oriented business concepts were raised as potential means for creating growth in the distributed energy sector.

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15:30–16:30

Combining expert future views and farm level modeling in the evaluation of three mitigation measures – improving the base of decisions for the future

Rikkonen Pasi1, Rintamäki Heidi1, Huan-Niemi Ellen1, Niskanen, Olli1 and Tapio, Petri2 1 MTT Agrifood Research Finland, Economic Research, Helsinki and Mikkeli, Finland; heidi.rintamaki@mtt.fi, pasi.rikkonen@mtt.fi; 2 University of Turku, Finland Futures Research Centre, Turku, Finland; petri.tapio@utu.fi This paper focuses on the improvement of using both quantitative and qualitative approaches in generating research results of the climate change mitigation measures within agriculture. This is done by integrating interactively farm level model simulations with the future views of an expert panel. A Delphi method as an expert method is utilised and alternative farm types are modelled as a ground for evaluating the effects of changing mitigation policy measures.

We present results of a conducted Delphi process in where model simulations and expert panel evaluations were combined. We present farm level model simulations that delivered projections to serve as benchmarks for expert panel to evaluate and foresee the possible introduction of alternative policy measures. As policy measures three simulations were made according to the farm models among 21 mitigation measures overall during the Delphi process. These simulations were namely 1) the benefits (decreased emissions) and costs of requiring farms with organic soils to cultivate perennial grass on them 2) Requiring livestock farms to intensify and change feeding to decrease emissions (increasing rape oil in feeding) and 3) storing feed grain without drying (avoiding mainly fossil fuel use). Key words: Delphi method, farm model simulations, mitigation measures, climate policy

Varying recipes for mitigation in agriculture

Rintamäki Heidi1, Rikkonen Pasi1 and Tapio Petri2

heidi.rintamaki@mtt.fi, pasi.rikkonen@mtt.fi, petri.tapio@utu.fi 1 MTT Agrifood Research Finland, Economic Research, Helsinki and Mikkeli, Finland; heidi.rintamaki@mtt.fi, pasi.rikkonen@mtt.fi; 2 University of Turku, Finland Futures Research Centre, Turku, Finland; petri.tapio@utu.fi The climate and energy strategy of the European Union presents the aims for all economic sectors to cut carbon dioxide emissions. In this paper, the objective is to study how mitigation measures will develop in agriculture in the light of the aims of climate and energy policy in next 20 years.

In this study Delphi method is produced to the evaluation of the expert panel –method and in it inquiry technique and interview technique utilizing the alternative realization alternatives of the future. The expert panel evaluated 20 different mitigation measures 1) probability of the use, 2) desirability, 3) acceptability, 4) the scope of the introduction, 5) the effectiveness of the means to reduce emissions and 6) importance. Some of these methods among others were the restricting of the growth of the organic soils, reallocation of pieces of arable land, changes in the manure handling, changes in the feeding and biogas production.

Altogether 28 experts participated in the Delphi process. The first round of the Delphi study was carried out by semi-structured interviews and the second feedback round by means of an online questionnaire. Background information of the first round was presented to the experts who responded with their views on developments of mitigation measures between 2013 and 2033. Five most important mitigation measures evaluated by the experts were manure handling without extra field, biogas production, wintertime vegetation, focused nitrogen fertilization and precision farming. Alternative scenarios were then constructed from these dimensions with cluster analysis in line with the

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Disaggregative Policy Delphi (DPD) approach. Quantitative statements were complemented with the experts’ argumentation.

Key words: Delphi method, mitigation measures, climate policy, energy policy

Ways to climate smart agriculture? – Views of Finnish farmers, educators and advisers

Savikko Riitta, Mäkinen Hanna, Rimhanen Karoliina and Himanen Sari MTT Agrifood Research Finland, Finland, firtname.surname@mtt.fi Agriculture is a one of the sectors directly influenced by proceeding climate change, and for which both mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions and adaptation to altered production conditions are important issues. Finnish national Climate Change and Countryside –project has organized 12 workshops for farmers, educators of farmer students, rural developers, decision-makers and researchers around Finland during years 2012-2014, with altogether ca. 270 participants. In each workshop, there have been group discussions and a written questionnaire which aimed to gather the views of the participants on possibilities and challenges of climate change mitigation and adaptation, as well as strengths and weaknesses for becoming more climate-smart at Finnish farms. Qualitative analysis of these workshop materials revealed e.g. rich renewable natural resources, sound society and cooperation between farmers and advisers were considered as major strengths for climate change mitigation and adaptation. The weaknesses included current low profitability of farming, farmers feeling of inferiority, lack of smooth farmer co-operation, dispersed and concentrated location of cereal and domestic animal farms, and short-term and inconsistent farming and energy policies. According to participants, the current high workload, inability to sufficient investments and fears for increasing bureaucracy limit proactive preparation. However, methods creating multiple benefits for farmers such as increasing carbon sinks simultaneously improving soil quality, ensuring yields by utilizing high quality research and knowhow, and producing on-farm renewable energy were seen as concrete and inspiring means towards climate smart agriculture.

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WG 7: Climate Governance in the South: Policies and Politics in Mitigation and Adaptation A

Chairs: Louis Lebel, Chiang Mai University, Thailand & Mira Käkönen, University of Helsinki & Visa Tuominen, University of Turku

Room: Hall G Wednesday 11th June

13:00–15:00 Adaptation

The governance of adaptation projects in Lao PDR and Cambodia: legitimacy, interests and accountability

Lebel Louis1, Va Dany2, Thuon Try3 and Voladet Saykham4 1 Chiang Mai University, Thailand, llebel@loxinfo.co.th; 2 Royal University of Phnom Penh, Cambodia danyenvironment@gmail.com; 3 independent researcher, Cambodia, trythuon@yahoo.com; 4 Saykham Voladet, National Economic Research Institute, Lao PDR, saykhamv@yahoo.com Climate change adaptation projects and programs in least developed countries often appear to be driven by the international organizations providing funds and the knowledge of associated foreign experts. This raises issues of legitimacy and accountability like: Do local communities support the proposed interventions? And, who is responsible for maladaptation when a project fails? The purpose of this study was to evaluate specifically how the way problems and solutions are framed in the rationales and design of adaptation projects shapes how projects are governed and ultimately influence whose interests are served and who is to be held accountable for a project’s promised benefits and unforseen shortcomings. The analysis is based on public statements by politicians and senior bureaucrats, interviews and content analysis of project and program documents. A few selected case studies are explored in greater depth to illustrate key mechanisms of interaction and influence. The ways adaptation to climate change is framed in programs and projects show many similarities across countries reflecting the influence of global climate change discourses and the shared historical importance of centralized planning. Several mechanisms by which issue and policy framing can influence key dimensions of adaptation governance were identified. This study shows that the ways in which adaptation is framed can have important consequences for governance, in particular, the representation of vulnerable groups, and ultimately for whose interests are prioritized and who (if anyone) is responsible for shortcomings.

Aquaculture insurance: Innovative risk transfer under integrated risk management system for sustainability

Kallayanamitra Chalisa 1, Potapohn Manoj 2 and Lebel Louis 3 1 Faculty of Economics, Chiang Mai University, c.kallayanamitra@gmail.com; 2 Faculty of Economics, Chiang Mai University, potapohnm@gmail.com; 3 Unit for Social and Environmental Research (USER), Chiang Mai University, louis@sea-user.org. The inland aquaculture sector in Thailand contributes to the economy and household livelihoods. The sector has suffered substantially from the effects of natural disasters which may become more frequent and intense as a result of climate change. Ensuring that the growth in aquaculture will be sustainable is

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a significant technical and governance challenge. Currently there is no insurance market for this sector, but there are some modest private and public-sponsored compensation and relief assistance schemes in place. This paper describes an effort to support the design of aquaculture insurance, especially for small-scale farmers, as a risk transfer instrument for improving the sustainability of inland aquaculture in northern Thailand. Two contrasting aquaculture systems are considered: in cages in rivers and earthen ponds on private land. Institutional and stakeholder analyses show that insurance can fill a void in the existing risk management system. Government has a role in providing the enabling legal and policy conditions for insurance and perhaps subsidies toward the payment of insurance premiums for small-scale farmers. Insurance companies, however, can only offer a service if governments do not provide overly generous compensation. We suggest that government only provide funding for risks that cannot be covered by the insurance sector. 15:30–16:30 Mitigation

Rendering climate change and environment governable through carbon accounting: The effects of Clean Development Mechanism in Cambodia

Käkönen Mira1 and Thuon Try2 1 University of Helsinki, Finland mira.kakonen@helsinki.fi; 2 Royal University of Phnom Penh, trythuon@gmail.com This paper explores neoliberalisation of environmental governance that leans on market based mechanisms through the case of clean development (CDM) projects in Cambodia. It also looks at new climate change related arguments for hydropower development. Cambodia is important to future CDM discussions as it has been a leading country among the LDCs in gaining CDM projects. Currently it has 10 CDM projects registered out of which 4 are large-scale hydropower projects. The relatively short history of CDM projects has been accompanied with criticism especially over the CDM’s potential to bring about the promised sustainable development benefits. In Cambodia the CDM projects now in the pipeline have performed quite modestly in terms of sustainable development benefits, some projects have fallen short of their promises and some projects have also had some negative impacts. These shortcomings can be understood in relation to the very logic of the market mechanisms as well as in relation to the practices related to carbon accounting. What kind of effects the CDM has on environment and energy governance in a country like Cambodia? With regards to dam development: how does the CDM change the way how the river basins are governed and viewed? The projects require complex project design and implementation rules of projects and thus new technical, human and institutional capacities. What kind of new configurations of expertise and knowledge are being created? The research material consists of policy and project documents, key informant interviews as well as community-level fieldwork.

Small-scale carbon projects and sustainable development: identifying storylines for measuring development impacts

Karhunmaa Kamilla & Tuominen Visa Finland Futures Research Centre, University of Turku, kamilla.karhunmaa@utu.fi; visa.tuominen@utu.fi There has been increased interest in the voluntary carbon markets towards small-scale carbon projects, which claim to produce both global emissions reductions and local development benefits in the developing countries they are implemented in. There is, however, an imbalance as the production of emissions reductions is subject to strict monitoring and accounting practices, while the production of local development impacts is monitored only by some voluntary standards, and these have also been subject to criticism. Simultaneously, ‘value for money’ demands by a range of actors have increased, and created pressure to demonstrate that carbon projects are delivering development impacts. This paper

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uses storylines (Hajer 1995) to analyse how a variety of actors involved in small-scale carbon projects justify why and how the development impacts of carbon projects should be measured. The material is based on 15 interviews with project developers, donors and NGOs, and related policy documents and publicity material. Four main storylines addressing what creates a sustainable carbon project in small-scale energy technology are identified. The debate on measuring the development impacts of carbon projects is dominated by the storylines that focus on how the energy technologies create health benefits, especially for women and children, and positive impacts to local markets. How the end-users of the energy technology benefit and are able to participate in assessing the development impacts of carbon projects received less attention. The dominance of health benefits and market-orientation implies that development benefits are likely to be viewed through the lenses of marketization and technocratization, while local participation and end-user concerns are more likely to be sidelined. Thursday 12th June

13:00–15:00 Adaptation and Mitigation/General Discussion

Using scenarios for information integration and science policy facilitation: case from the Tonle Sap Lake, Cambodia

Keskinen Marko 1, Kummu Matti 1, Paradis Someth 2, Salmivaara Aura 1 & Sokhem Pech 3 1 Aalto University, Finland; 2 Institute of Technology of Cambodia, Cambodia; 3 Hatfield Consultants Partnership, Canada; Corresponding author: marko.keskinen@aalto.fi. We looked at water−energy−food−climate nexus in Cambodia’s unique Tonle Sap area in a two-year interdisciplinary research project (http://bit.ly/1dciGTn). The area feels increasing pressure both internally (notable demographic transition) and externally (Mekong hydropower development that is likely to bring major changes to the lake and its exceptional flood pulse system). The aim of our study – implemented in collaboration with governmental Tonle Sap Authority – was to understand better these two major drivers and their possible implications for the future development of the area.

We used several approaches, ranging from hydrological modeling to policy analysis, and from socio-economic database analysis to household surveys. These more traditional research methods were then complemented with scenario approaches. We synthesized our research results through four alternative scenarios created for the Tonle Sap in 2040, indicating radically different but nevertheless plausible futures for the area (see the Figure on the following page).

Our experience indicates that scenarios facilitate integration of diverse, discipline-specific information, as they allow creation of future storylines combining information from different sources. Moreover, possibility to discuss alternative storylines allows better consideration of the uncertainty and complexity included into the analyses.

Scenarios also provided a powerful way to consider the views of different stakeholders, strengthening the linkage between science and policy.

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Rendering climate change governable in the least developed countries: policy narratives and expert technologies in Cambodia

Käkönen Mira1, Lebel Louis2, Karhunmaa Kamilla3, Va Dany 4 and Thuon Try5 1 University of Helsinki, mira.kakonen@helsinki.fi; 2 Chiang Mai University, llebel@loxinfo.co.th; 3 University of Turku, Kamilla.karhunmaa@utu.fi; 4 Royal University of Phnom Penh, danyenvironment@gmail.com; 5 independent researcher, trythuon@yahoo.com Global discourses on climate change have significantly shaped how climate change is viewed as a problem and issue to be governed. This paper discusses the role of policy narratives and expertise in the rendering of climate change governable in the so called least developed countries (LDCs). The main arguments are illustrated with examples from Cambodia. There are three key findings. First, climate change policy narratives are an important product and driver of the shifting rationalities of government with respect to adaptation and mitigation. In the case of Cambodia policy narratives of donors have dominated, but have also been co-opted by national government. Second, most responses to climate change are framed in technical terms that draw on expert knowledge, tools and technologies. In Cambodia mitigation has been viewed through the currency of carbon credits, as in CDM projects, that downplay other ecosystem services and natural values as well as the livelihood dimensions of intervention projects. Third, the combination of donor-driven policy narratives and expert technologies is potent: it strongly depoliticizes climate change as an issue rendering it more easily governable through existing bureaucratic planning processes and without challenging the current structures of political economy. In Cambodia, opportunities for meaningful public engagement in shaping national responses to climate change remain limited despite significant opportunities for complementarities with sustainable development policies and concerns with adverse impacts and trade-offs associated with large-scale projects.

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Reporting Obligations under the Climate Regime: One step forward and two steps back

Deleuil Thomas PhD Candidate and Research Assistant, CERIC (Centre for Studies and Research in International and European Law) Aix-Marseille University, deleuil3@gmail.com. The last decisions of climate Conferences of the Parties (COP) have strengthened States reporting obligations under the regime. Thus, developed countries will submit biennal reports on mitigation measures and the implementation of the Convention1. Additionally, they will submit a complete national communication every four years2. At the same time, Non-Annex I parties will submit biennal reports on mitigation actions as well3. These reinforced obligations testify of the importance of reporting in the regime as “a method largely used […] for ensuring compliance”4. However, States parties often do not respect their reporting obligations, or submit their reports really late, forcing the COP to call regularly for their submission5. Furthermore, it is very difficult for the bodies of the regime to verify the submitted information. At a time when the regime is negotiating its very own future with the 2015 Paris COP in the horizon, this paper aims at assessing the extent and purpose of reporting obligations in the regime, giving insights on their future role. Décision 2/CP.17 Outcome of the Work of the Ad Hoc Working Group on Long-term Cooperative Action under the Convention, 15 mars 2012, Doc. FCCC/CP/2011/9/Add.1, Part. II, A], §13. 2 Décision 2/CP.17 Outcome of the Work of the Ad Hoc Working Group on Long-term Cooperative Action under the Convention, op. cit., Part. II, A], §13. 3 Décision 2/CP.17 Outcome of the Work of the Ad Hoc Working Group on Long-term Cooperative Action under the Convention, op. cit., Part. II, B], §41. 4 KISS (A.), « Reporting Obligations and Assessment of Reports », in BEYERLIN (U.), STOLL (P.-T.), WOLFRUM (R.), Ensuring Compliance with MEAs: a Dialogue between Practitioners and Academia, Nijhoff, Leiden, 2006, p. 229. 5 Décision 2/CP.17 Outcome of the Work of the Ad Hoc Working Group on Long-term Cooperative Action under the Convention, op. cit., Part. II, B], §32. Decision 9/CP.16 National communications from Parties included in Annex I to the Convention, 15 mars 2011, Doc. FCCC/CP/2010/7/Add.2.

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WG 8: Climate Governance in the South: Policies and Politics in Mitigation and Adaptation B

Chair: Sari Jusi, University of Turku, Finland

Room: E108 Wednesday 11th June

13:00–15:00

Adaptation Strategic Assessment Framework: An ex-ante assessment framework for better climate change adaptation policy planning

Huang Ping-Lun, Lin Hai-Chen, Li Albert C.T., Lo Liang-Huey, Wu Yueh, Lai Yeun-Jeng and Chen, Yi-Ju Science & Technology Policy Research and Information Center, STPI, NARLabs , Taiwan; corresponding author: plhuang@stpi.narl.org.tw. It is a great challenge for policy makers to ascertain that climate change adaptation options would respond to climate change risks properly because of the long process of policy planning, from risk and vulnerability assessment, options formulation and prioritization to final decision making. Besides, it is difficult for them to take cross-sector climate change impacts into consideration during the planning process, partly due to their departmentalism, and partly due to the inadequacy and complexity of supporting evidences on climate change impacts. Furthermore, by reason of uncertainty of climate change, it is an uneasy task to reach consensus among stakeholders as well.

For reasons above, this paper suggests that an overall ex-ante assessment framework, named as “Adaptation Strategic Assessment Framework”, is crucial for better policy planning. We propose three basic and complementary elements in this framework. The first one is an integrated checking-format for a quick and comprehensive ex-ante assessment, which aims to ensure all important dimensions and criteria being considered. The second one is a design of cross-sector coordination mechanism for linking multi-sector adaptation solutions to the most critical climate change risks and for avoiding maladaptation. The third one is a stakeholder engagement procedure to supplement knowledge base of adaptation and to strengthen consensus-building moreover. This framework could be a useful tool in the early stage of planning to make adaptation options more robust and facilitate the most effective adaptation actions. Key words: climate change adaptation policy planning, Adaptation Strategic Assessment Framework, ex-ante assessment framework

Climate change adaptation in Cameroon: role of information and knowledge circulation in the policy arena

Pérez-Terán A.S.1*, Chia E.L.1, Munoh A.2 and Tiani A.M.1 1 Centre for International Forestry Research (CIFOR), Central Africa Regional Office, Cameroun; Corresponding author: a.perezteran@cgiar.org; 2 Consultant Since the emergence of adaptation in the UNFCCC process, different concepts have been generated overtime, producing information and knowledge relevant for the design and implementation of adaptation policies in regions and countries where adaptation is a need. However, little is known on the

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uptake of the adaptation information and knowledge in the climate change adaptation policy arena in these countries. This study builds on review of the evolution of UNFCCC adaptation policy design concepts and semis-structured interviews conducted with national stakeholders in Cameroon, to analyze the state of the art of information and knowledge circulation in the adaptation policy arena. It further explores the implication of information and knowledge gaps on national adaptation policy and instruments, by hypothesizing that suitable communication channels are relevant for transforming policy making arenas. The study suggests that there is need to improve information and knowledge sharing through context and actor specific channels. Key words: Adaptation, concepts, communication, policy change.

Responding to Climate Change: Developing Water Resources Governance in Lao PDR

Jusi Sari Postdoctoral Researcher, D.Sc. (Admin.), Turku School of Economics, Finland Future Research Centre, sari.jusi@utu.fi Water resource management and development are becoming increasingly complex and demanding with the rapid increase in water projects of different usages at the same time as the challenges related to climate change, population growth, and urbanization are growing. Climate change occurrences in Lao PDR include an increase in temperatures (droughts) and changes in rainfall patterns (floods) which are likely to be accentuated in the near future. The country is very vulnerable to the impacts of climate change due to its high socio-economic dependence on climate-sensitive sectors such as water and agriculture, and low adaptive ability associated with widespread poverty and weak technical and institutional capacity. Water resource management and planning are seen as necessary in order to tackle risks and challenges connected with the climate change and environmental challenges, such as scarcity of water and deteriorating water quality.

The research paper is focusing on analysing current water development, management and planning processes and related institutional and policy development from the point of climate change adaptation and mitigation in Lao PDR. The aim is to examine how water resources governance can contribute to and increase the ability to respond to climate change related challenges.

Land Reform Governance in Bangladesh: Rhetoric or Reality?

Professor Asaduzzaman Mohammed & Professor Rahman AKM Motinur Department of Politics and Public Administration, Islamic University, Bangladesh, Corresponding author: asaduzzaman.mohammed@gmail.com The issue of land reform (LR) has got a mammoth significance due to the effects of climate change, global food crisis, natural catastrophes, environmental disasters and rapidly increasing population of the developing world over the last more than three decades. The paper aims to examine the LR policies introduced by the various regimes of Bangladesh since its independence 1971. The paper also intends to investigate the consequences and impacts of land reform policies on poverty and landlessness people in Bangladesh. The main research question of this paper is what kinds of land reform policies have been taken by the various regimes of Bangladesh since 1971? In addition, two other specific research questions are: who are the real beneficiaries of those policies and how do these policies effect on eradicating massive poverty in Bangladesh? This paper is based on the secondary data. Land is a vital source of empowerment of poor people, strengthens networks that give them a voice and contribute to a more participatory socio-economic and political culture. Therefore, the paper assumes that good governance, poverty reduction, adopting climate change policies and achieving MDGs are difficult without an inclusive, feasible and operative LR policy.

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Public Financing to Address the Impacts of Climate Change in Bangladesh: an Assessment

Prof. Dr. Banu Nasim Dept. of Politics and Public Administration, Islamic University, Kushtia, Bangladesh, nasimbanu411@ yahoo.com A significant portion of budget of Bangladesh is detailed to mitigate the adverse effects of Climate Change. Over the last 35 years Bangladesh has invested over USD 10 billion to the activities at reducing the adverse impacts of climate change. With the adaptation of Bangladesh Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan (BCCSP) in 2009 the financing of climate change has become an integral part of public financial management in Bangladesh. The government has created Climate Change Trust Fund by the virtue of Climate Change Trust Act, 2010 and also set up Bangladesh Climate Change Resilience Fund to mitigate the climate change adversities. The government is committed to allocate BDT 07 billion to the fund every year. With this reality the paper intends to review the public finance management system, budget and expenditure for climate change mitigation in Bangladesh. However, consulting the government documents, related literature and having unstructured interview with the concerned people/officials the paper is prepared. Studying the period form 2009-10 to 2011-12 it is observed that around 20−25% of the government budget and expenditure is on climate related programs; there are 37 Ministries having projects with climate dimensions; and expenditure & commitment of resources has increased by 16%. The paper is concluded with the remarks that the programs relating to mitigate the climate change adversity represent a significant annual undertaking in financial term and suggested that some consideration is to be given that climate change expenditure should be focused exclusively on the activity dealing with the impacts and consequences arising from climate variables. 15:30–16:30

Disaster Management in Bangladesh: Response and Recovery from the Affected Areas

Dr Hossain Mohammad Zulfiquar Associate Professor, Department of Politics and Public Administration, Islamic University, Kushtia, Bangladesh, zulfiiu@yahoo.com

Natural disasters severely hamper the progress and achievements of the objectives of development. The physical, social and economic losses caused by these disasters are particularly harsh for developing countries since they have a long-range effect in the development process. Bangladesh is not an exception from this trauma. Unanimously, Bangladesh is widely rated as one of the world’s most vulnerable countries to climate change. The paper aims to highlights the government based initiatives, government action and the programs related to disaster response and recovery which engage communities to deal with disaster risks. This paper also highlights the vulnerability of women due to various natural disasters across the country. This is an empirical research. However, the landscape of social science is very complicated due to the cultural, social, political, economic and geographical variation of the society. Therefore, various techniques of quantitative and qualitative research have been applied in order to collect primary and secondary data. Primary data has been collected through interviewing different categories of people from the research units.

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Cross-Regional Coastal Impacts and Climate Adaptation

Yi-Chang Chiang1, Han-Pi Chang2 and Pei-Chun Shih2 1 Department & Graduate Institute of Architecture and Urban Design, Chinese Culture University, Taiwan 2 Department of Hakka Language and Social Sciences, National Central University, Taiwan, Corresponding author: chiang106@gmail.com A ship carrying pesticides and herbicides packages sank off in March 2012 near the coast of China. The packages were later found on Taiwan’s coast due to cross flows in the Taiwan Strait. Since the cross flows occur northeastward during the winter monsoon and may increase under climate change, coastal adaptation is addressed. Based on the vulnerability concept on exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity, we establish interdisciplinary communications to foster public understanding of cross-regional coastal impacts faced with future climate. Whilst oceanic research provides evidence-based information on impacts, interviews with local residents reflect their risk perceptions and responses. Given the northwest coastal areas of Taiwan are sensitive to the event, we conclude that the locals need to raise awareness of climate adaptation where robust messages on impacts are the key for proactive responses recognizing that perceptions may be influenced by experiential factors, including affect and values.

Proposal on science-based solutions “Climate change, agriculture and food security” for the rural poor and most vulnerable farmers in developing countries

Bhadra Manash Climate change is a major threat to rural livelihoods and to food security in the developing world − i.e., to society. Climate change is already being felt in terms of gradual increases in temperature, increased variability in annual rainfall regimes and a greater prevalence of extreme events such as drought and floods. Rural communities must adapt to these changes if any development progress is to continue and if further impoverishment is to be avoided. Fundamental changes in agricultural systems are needed for rural communities in less developed countries to adequately adapt to climate change. Climate change poses new and serious challenges for farmers and other resource users, for policy makers and those who invest in rural and agricultural development and poverty alleviation—and for science. The changes in agricultural systems and their management that are needed to enable the rural poor, resource managers and policy-makers to adapt to these stresses and challenges will not come about in sufficient time unless the best of science based solutions (e.g., agro biodiversity, water use) and policy (e.g., land use planning, insurance schemes) to a changing environmental baseline) are developed and the best of delivery mechanisms are put in place. The proposal is aiming to provide science-based solutions which accelerate successful adaptation of agricultural systems to climate change for the rural poor and most vulnerable farmers in developing countries. These solutions (e.g., practices, technologies, policies) will enhance the capacity of farmers, other natural resource users and policymakers to better manage land, the environment and food security. Key words: science, based, solutions, climate, agriculture, food security

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Thursday 12th June

13:00–15:00

The use of Early Warning Systems for improved food security: Case studies in Malawi and Zambia

Sohn Minchul1 and Pilli-Sihvola Karoliina2 1 Hanken School of Economics, Finland, minchul.sohn@hanken.fi 2 Finnish Meteorological Institute, Finland, karoliina.pilli-sihvola@fmi.fi Food security is a pertinent concern in many Sub-Saharan countries. For instance, poverty, inefficient farming techniques and abnormal weather events can cause poor yields or total loss of harvests. Furthermore, prolonged dry-spells and floods create pressure to subsistence farmers and to the national food security situation. Climate change is projected to increase the risk of extreme hydro-meteorological events, thus deteriorating the food security situation and increasing the importance of effective Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR). Decision-making for DRR, particularly for preparedness and response, is significantly improved by the use of early warning information (in particular seasonal outlooks for dry spells and short-range early warnings for floods) by key stakeholders. It also forms an integral part of climate change adaptation measures.

The purpose of this study is to assess the challenges in sharing and utilising early warning information for the purposes of DRR and climate change adaptation, and to propose actions to improve the current situation. The study is based on 45 semi-structured interviews conducted in Malawi and Zambia, including the government and private sector, NGOs, UN agencies, and other civil actors. Particularly, this study investigates how different stakeholders organise and participate in coordination efforts to prepare and respond to extreme events. Key words: Climate change adaptation, Disaster risk reduction, Early warnings, Food security, Sub-Saharan Africa

Climate Change Adaptation Strategies among Small Holder Farmers: Case of Chihota Communal Area, Zimbabwe.

Mavengere Faith Eupharasia University of Jyväskylä, Finland, femavengere@gmail.com That climate change is happening is no longer an assumption but a fact backed by extensive evidence. In fact, the phenomenon is now being recognized as one of man’s greatest global environmental challenge for the 21st century. Although there has been considerable research on climate change rather less attention has been paid to understanding adaptation of rural populations to the effects of climate change. Thus, the purpose of this research is to fill this gap by exploring from a social scientific perspective climate change adaptation strategies implored by small scale farmers in Chihota communal area in Zimbabwe. Social vulnerability theoretical approach was used as a basis of analysis in answering the research questions. The research was primarily qualitative and data was collected using individual interviews, group interviews, secondary sources and observation. The findings of this research suggests that although these small scale farmers are trying by all means to adapt to climate change, there are other man made political, economic and sociocultural factors which determine their adaptation decisions. This research’s findings brings fundamental social issues in understanding climate change adaptation by small scale farmers which needs to be fully taken into consideration by policy makers. Key words: climate change, adaptation, adaptive capacity, social vulnerability, small scale farmers

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Global warming, chilling injury, rice yield in Northeastern three provinces of china (NTPC)

Zhao Zhang1*, Xiao Song1, Xing Wei1, Pin Wang1, Yi Chen1 and Fulu Tao2 1 State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology/Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Beijing Normal University, China 2 Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, China Northeastern three provinces of China (NTPC) is the main marketable rice base in China, and more than 60% of commodity japonica rice is produced here. Although a significant increase in air temperature had been observed, the frequency and intensity of chilling disaster have not correspondingly decreased as public are expected in the area. Consequently, quantitative evaluation of the potential loss of chilling on crop productivity is vital for agricultural sustainable development. In this study, a series of records, including crop phonology, yield, natural disasters over a period of 10 years from 19 agricultural experiment stations (AES) throughout NTPC, together with the meteorology records at 42 meteorological stations nearby the AES over the last three decades (1980-2009) were used to construct a vulnerability model which identifies the relationships between hazard (chilly) intensity and yield loss. Our study tried to link the yield loss evaluation to the agricultural insurance practice, and discussed their potential application for designing the related policy to ensure agricultural sustainable development in China.

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WG 9: Urban Adaptation in a Changing Climate

Chairs: Johanna Mustelin Griffith University, Australia & Sirkku Juhola, University of Helsinki, Finland

Room: E109 Wednesday 11th June

13:00–15:00

Anticipatory governance for social ecological resilience

Boyd Emily 1, Nykvist Björn 2, Borgström Sara 3 and Stacewicz Izabela A. 1 1 School of Archaeology, Geography and Environmental Science (SAGES) University of Reading, emily.boyd@reading.ac.uk; 2 Stockholm Environment Institute and Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Sweden; 3 Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Sweden Anticipation is increasingly central to urgent contemporary debates, from climate change to the global economic crisis. Anticipatory practices are coming to the forefront of political, organizational and citizens’ society. Research into anticipation, however, has not kept pace with public demand for insights into these anticipatory practices, their uses and limitations. Where research exists, it is deeply fragmented. This paper seeks to firstly review the development of the concept to date in the field of resilience and governance, and to secondly identify anticipatory practice to address individual, social and global challenges. To address the second objective, we draw on an empirical case study of urban water governance networks in Mälardalen region, Sweden. We illustrate how varying forms of anticipatory governance are enhanced by multi-scale regional networks and technologies, and by the agency of individuals. Finally, we discuss how an anticipatory approach can inform adaptive institutions, decision-making, strategy formation and societal resilience. Key words: Anthropocene; Anticipation; Governance; Complexity; Networks; Knowledge

Designing Enduring Cities for an Era of Rapidly Changing Climate

Johnson Bart R. Associate Professor, Department of Landscape Architecture, University of Oregon, USA, bartj@uoregon.edu Urban areas may be particularly vulnerable to climate change due to their dynamic ecological context (e.g., floodplains, coastal areas), and the fragility of their infrastructure to extreme climatic events (e.g., heat waves). Climate change impacts appear unavoidable, yet they present three key types of uncertainties: How much climate change will occur? How will ecosystems respond to climate change? How will people respond to climate and ecosystem change? I draw on a framework of climate adaptation through strategies of resistance (managing landscapes to oppose climate change impacts), resilience (managing landscapes to buffer ecosystems and people from harm or to support quick recovery) and facilitation (helping ecosystems and people transition toward new states better adapted to changing conditions). I provide examples of each strategy for different types of impacts: sea level rise, heat waves, drought, floods, and wildfire. Resistance may be most appropriate for short-term responses when uncertainty is high. Resilience strategies can provide a bet-hedging advantage when directional impacts are likely but their magnitude is still uncertain. Facilitative strategies may be most

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useful when both trends and their magnitude are reasonably predictable. Finally, I argue that shifting from resistance to facilitation requires a change from site-specific solutions to landscape-scale interventions.

Assessing climatic impacts through the lifecycle of an urban environment

Kosunen Hanna Urban Design and Planning, Oulu School of Architecture, University of Oulu, hanna.kosunen@oulu.fi Climate change adaptation and mitigation have led to a phenomenon of assessing the climatic impacts of urban environment with various assessment tools. Few assessments still take account the whole lifecycle of the urban environment, and the assessments do rarely cover the various levels of urban planning. In the paper, the assessment of climatic impacts is outlined from the point of view of various levels of urban planning.

The question is approached by using research through design as a method, applying available assessment tools to an urban plan. The research is part of a multidisciplinary research project Integrative Urban Development Concept: Case Sustainable Winter City (2012-2014), based on a Living Lab experiment in city of Oulu, northern Finland, where a new Hiukkavaara neighborhood for 20 000 inhabitants is being constructed.

As a conclusion it is shown that the impact assessment methods can be characterized depending on the planning level. By recognizing these methods, the climatic impacts can be assessed through the whole lifecycle of an urban environment.

The economics of green economy strategies at a cityscale: can low carbon and energy efficient development approaches be extended to urban resources efficiency?

Topi Corrado 1,2 and Govigli Valentino Marini 3 1 Stockholm Environment Institute, York, United Kingdom, corrado.topi@gmail.com; 2 Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, UK; 3 Department of Biological Applications and Technologies, University of Ioannina, Greece, valentino_govigli@hotmail.com Implementing green and bottom-up strategies is a core challenge of modern city-planning. Several approaches have been proposed to the economics of low carbon development strategies for cities, as the ELCC developed by SEI and CCCEP. Yet, the impact of cities goes well beyond GHG emissions: they are major consumer of resources (water and food), and producers of waste.

The purpose is to investigate whether it is possible to extend low carbon approaches to include other priority resources, adapting the ELCC energy efficiency framework to the water sector.

We studied the water domestic sector of Bologna (Italy), identifying and prioritizing several efficiency measures. Measures were evaluated through their capital investment, annual values of savings, payback period and reduction in consumption.

The results shows that, with an upfront investment of € 22.4 million, all Bologna’s households could be equipped with the cost-effective measures, generating annual savings of € 12.2 million and reducing water consumption of 30% by 2020.

Finally, we showcase a possible approach to the prioritization of water efficiency measures and describe a city-level financial delivery mechanism. Sensitivity analysis on the optimal discounted rate was also conducted.

We encourage further trials in additional case studies to reinforce the methodology.

References Gouldson, A., Kerr, N., Topi, C. Dawkins, E., Kuylenstierna, J., Sullivan, R. and Webber, P. (forthcoming - 2014) ‘The Economics and Financing of Low Carbon Cities’ in Dixon, T. and Eames, M. (eds) Urban Retrofitting for Sustainability: Mapping the Transition for 2050, Routledge.

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Gouldson, A., Kerr, N., Topi, C. Dawkins, E., Kuylenstierna, J. and Pearce, R. (2013) ‘The Economics of Low Carbon Cities: A Mini-Stern Review for Birmingham and the Wider Urban Area’, published by the Centre for Low Carbon Futures. Gouldson, A., Kerr, N., Topi, C. Dawkins, E., Kuylenstierna, J. and Pearce, R. (2013) ‘The Economics of Low Carbon Cities: A Mini-Stern Review for the Humber’, published by the Centre for Low Carbon Futures. Gouldson, A., Kerr, N., Topi, C. Dawkins, E., Kuylenstierna, J. and Pearce, R. (2012) ‘The Economics of Low Carbon Cities: Approaches to a City-Scale Mini-Stern Review’ in Simpson, R. and Zimmerman, M. (eds) The Economy of Green Cities: A World Compendium on the Green Urban Economy, Springer. Gouldson, A., Kerr, N., Topi, C. Dawkins, E., Kuylenstierna, J. and Pearce, R. (2012) ‘The Economics of Low Carbon Cities: A Mini-Stern Review for the Leeds City Region, published by the Centre for Low Carbon Futures. Gouldson, A., Kerr, N., Topi, C. Dawkins, E., Kuylenstierna, J. and Pearce, R. (2012) ‘The Economics of Low Carbon Cities: A Mini-Stern Review for the Sheffield City Region’, published by the Centre for Low Carbon Futures.

Towards Developing Green Housing Solutions: Case integrating renewable energy solutions to housing in Lagos, Nigeria

Linna Paula1, Virtanen Maarit1, Adedoyin Lasisi K. S. 2 & Babawale Aduroshakin2: 1 Lahti University of Applied Sciences, Finland, paula.linna@lamk.fi, maarit.virtanen@lamk.fi 2 Lagos State Ministry of the Environment, Nigeria, ladedoyin@yahoo.com, bobbywal@yahoo.com Construction sector, including housing, is booming in Nigeria and particularly in big cities, like Lagos. In fact, Lagos is one of the fastest growing cities in the world, and there is a huge shortage of housing. In addition, there are major problems related to energy supply, which has led to use of diesel generators in households and industries.

In new residential areas, renewable energy could be integrated into housing technology. One of the main questions is how to make them affordable enough for the end-users. This study will focus on analyzing the future prospects of implementing renewable energy solutions in Nigerian housing sector. The research question is two-folded: what is the current status of ‘green housing’ in Lagos and what is done to promote renewable energy solutions in the housing sector.

This paper is based on empirical research in Lagos, involving field visits, interviews and co-operation with Lagos State Ministry of the Environment. The study is still at infancy, therefore in the paper we will provide some preliminary findings on the current situation and will offer some practical recommendations on how to promote ‘green housing’ in Lagos. 15:30–16:30

Islands of Change: Science, Policy, & Foresight Linkages in Hawaii's Climate Change Priority Guidelines

Sweeney John A. 1, Yee Aubrey1, Asuncion Leo2 and Morison Nathalie2 1 Hawaii Research Center for Futures Studies, USA 2 Office of Planning, State of Hawaii, USA In 2011, the State of Hawaii, Office of Planning (OP) commissioned the Hawaii Research Center for Futures Studies (HRCFS) to organize an alternative futures exercise focusing on climate change in the islands. Using 2060 as a time horizon, HRCFS utilized the "Manoa School" method to craft experiential scenarios for the workshop's participants, including representatives from state and county agencies, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), as well as stakeholders from academia, business, and Native Hawaiian communities. The results of the workshop and input from the broader community laid the foundation for the Hawaii’s Climate Change Adaptation Policy that was signed into law by governor Abercrombie on July 9, 2012. Introduced as part of the governor’s legislative package, Act 286 amends the Hawaii State Planning Act (HRS Chapter 226) to include Climate Change Adaptation

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Priority guidelines intended "to improve the quality of life for Hawaii's present and future population through the pursuit of desirable courses of action". This paper recounts the process and highlights the science, policy, and foresight linkages that were critical to the development of Act 286. Additionally, this paper looks ahead in forecasting possible, probable, and preferable aspects of Act 286’s present and future implementation.

Strategic planning and epistemology of change: Probing the fitness of urban and planning systems with resilient spatial strategies

M.Arch. Rantanen Annuska & D.Sc. (Tech.), M.Arch. Joutsiniemi Anssi Tampere University of Technology, School of Architecture, Finland, annuska.rantanen@tut.fi, anssi.joutsiniemi@tut.fi

The aim of this paper is to question the fitness of our state-of-the-art planning system, planning practices and urban systems to adapt to rapid changes in operational environment and recover from shocks. Furthermore, we claim that the proposed gap science/policy/planning can also be seen to be embedded in current planning paradigms. Due to the very interdependence of urban agencies the impacts of climate change are unpredictable and non-manageable by hierarchical top-down planning strategies. The approach builds on theories of complex adaptive systems that have come of age to be applied in urban planning. We argue that in an attempt to help cities adapt to uncertain futures, strategic planning should be better informed by the epistemology of complex systems and better recognise recursive emergent processes between urban metabolism and morphology. Drawing on the literature, we aim to apply the resilence metaphor as a tool to trace the conceptual gaps between strategic and operational planning as well as the vulnerability factors of cities from a systemic viewpoint. We aim to introduce a robust assessment framework based on resilience, referring to self-organising criticality embedded in co-evolving complex systems and paying special attention to physical agency and robustness of spatial practices. Key words: urban system, planning system, complex adaptive systems, resilience.

Transport climate policy choices in the Helsinki Metropolitan Area 2025 – views of transport officials and politicians.

Varho Vilja Agrifood Research Finland MTT, Finland, vilja.varho@mtt.fi; vilja.varho@fidea.fi Transport policy is increasingly concerned with the reduction of CO2 emissions. However, the use of passenger cars has not been reduced in the Helsinki Metropolitan Area, and more effective measures are needed. There are numerous different types of policy tools available, and many are needed simultaneously, forming policy packages.

In this research, the views of 14 policy makers (transport planners in city administration as well as elected city council members) in the Helsinki Area are studied. The views were collected using interviews and a questionnaire, where the respondents estimated the effectiveness and acceptability of various instruments, as well as which instruments would be in use in the Helsinki Area in 2025 in probable and preferable futures.

The results include four policy packages that have been composed of the future images envisioned by the policy makers. In addition, barriers to the uptake of effective policies are identified and discussed. Examples of such barriers are the differing objectives of various actors, lack of communication and trust, and uncertainty about the effectiveness and societal acceptability of policy tools.

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WG 10: Urban Sustainability

Chairs: Jarmo Vehmas & Burkhard Auffermann, University of Turku, Finland

Room: E124

Wednesday 11th June

13:00–15:00

Population and consumption futures: Compound effects in the global urban transition

Terämä Emma Institute for Sustainable Resources, University College London, UK, e.terama@ucl.ac.uk A measure of human environmental impact can be given through the compound effect of consumption and population structure and dynamics. At the same time the consumption of materials, renewable or otherwise, is shifting as the world is turning more urban and wealthy. Urbanisation translates into intra-country population dynamics and is related to increased economic activity and wealth. Urban living is thought to increase consumption as a whole, while proximity of people and places may produce economies of scale in some sectors such as transport. Fertility differentials play a role in shaping population (and household) structure for many decades to come, while age, household size and composition have been shown to correlate with different consumption levels. Added complexity arises through cultural consideration of consumption habits. A sustainable future for our environment requires fast responses to the compound population – consumption challenge.

This study investigates the joint impact of population and consumption change at sub-national level. Earlier work concentrated on country level comparisons (Mace et al. 2013). Our project unveils the net effect of urbanisation and consumption using comparable national statistics as well as microdata. We contrast demographic change in cities vs. rural areas for India by making use of the population life table, and apply vegetable/meat consumption and CO2 emissions indicators. The impact trajectories represent a net effect of population x consumption on the environment. Through the impact trajectories we can demonstrate possible consequences of different fertility and consumption scenarios across an urban-rural divide. The trajectories may be used to inform policy options with respect to consumption/emissions as well as meeting the need for family planning.

Reference: Mace, G., E. Terama and T. Coulson. 2013. Perspectives on International Trends and Dynamics in Population and Consumption. Environmental and Resource Economics 55: 555–568.

Low carbon solutions for humanitarian construction

Kuittinen Matti Aalto University, Finland, matti.kuittinen@aalto.fi The amount of refugees is estimated to reach 0,4… 1 billion by 2050. The primary reason seems to be climate change, as it causes extreme weather events, scarcity of resources and political tensions. Building temporary shelters and reconstructing homes even for a fraction of the amount of future refugees would cause significant greenhouse gas emissions that further accelerate man-made climate change.

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My research of temporary homes from Haiti, Japan, Pakistan, Indonesia and other countries shows that the GHG emissions from building temporary buildings for refugees has high variation. Worst temporary homes cause over 270% higher GHG emissions per capita than the annual national average. Thus it seems to be highly important to find case- and country-specific solutions that are both humanitarian and environmental at the same time. By applying latest sustainability standards from CEN and ISO, a draft method for such assessment of environmental impacts of humanitarian housing is developed. I propose that per capita GHG emissions should be taken into accountability evaluation of humanitarian work. Survivors and refugees should be given a possibility to continue their lives in safe settlements in a manner that does not permanently increase their per capita carbon footprint.

The Tempered Edge: Waterfront development in an age of climate change

Bradbury M.A. Department of Landscape Architecture, Faculty of Creative Industry and Business, UNITEC, New Zealand, mbradbury@unitec.ac.nz. Urban waterfront development has followed the Baltimore waterfront model since the 1970s. This model is characterised by the formation of a thin promenade of public space with carefully choreographed event architecture, behind which lies the retail, commercial and residential development. The sustainability of this model has recently been called into question by the consequence of climate change manifested in recent storm events such as Hurricane Sandy.

This paper proposes an alternative waterfront design model, one that builds environmental resilience into the typical waterfront development while still generating the expected real estate returns. The author proposes a development methodology that uses hydrological modelling tools to measure the production of urban stormwater within the larger urban catchment. Using this data the author develops a dispersed stormwater remediation network that also acts as a protective buffers for storm surges. This work suggests a way in which the contemporary waterfront can become more resilient to the consequences of climate change while at the same time retaining an expected commercial return. A test case site in Auckland New Zealand is used to model the proposed methodology. The initial results show that to accommodate the hydrological consequence of climate change a radically reconfigured master plan must be adopted. This plan suggests a new urban typology, one that is both resilient while at the same time offering the citizens of this new quarter a more equitable environment.

Community initiative network − a catalyst of transition towards low carbon society in Finland

Tikkanen Jukka and Virkkula Outi Oulu University of Applied Sciences, School of renewable Resources, Finland, jukka.tikkanen@oamk.fi. In this paper we present preliminary results of an international research project TESS – Towards European Societal Sustainability that aims at strengthening innovative potentials of community-based initiatives to enhance low-carbon societies, particularly in local and regional level.

Climate change is calling for withdrawal from dominant growth oriented economy towards low carbon society. Community based, grass root initiatives have widely seen as catalysts in this change. Anyhow, a broad gap exists between global or national plans and community-based initiatives for transition.

The TESS will bridge this gap through an analysis of multiple European community-based initiatives in terms of their “climate efficiency”. The first task of the project is to map the state-of-art of community initiatives in several European countries. Mapping will be based on the interviews within relevant community initiatives in the domains of energy, food, transport and waste, which are the domains where the most essential reductions in green house gas emissions are possible.

The paper will give an overview on the “landscape” of community initiatives in Finland by the aid of qualitative content analysis and by the formal network analysis. Results will be briefly compared with the first results from Germany, Italy and Scotland.

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15:30–16:30

Resilience of the Finnish food system in a changing climate – scenarios 2050

Tapiola Titta Master’s degree 2nd year student of Futures Studies, University of Turku, titta.t.tapiola@utu.fi or titta.tapiola@mtt.fi Modern food systems face global drivers such as climate change, a growing population, urbanization, and economic crises affecting food prices. In addition possible peak oil costs, structural changes in food systems such as homogenization and concentration, and diminishing natural resources also entail challenges for futures food systems. Because of all these major global drivers, it is no longer possible to optimize or solve one single problem at a time. That is why resilience thinking, provides better opportunities to understand the complex food systems.

According to resilience thinking complex adaptive systems evolve through four phases: rapid growth, conservation, release and reorganization. Three properties of a system: connectedness, potential (wealth) and resilience, shape the future of that system weather being economic, ecologic, social or social-ecologic system. In this paper this framework is used to construct scenarios of futures of Finnish food system.

In addition by using behavior-based indicator framework for assessing resilience of an agroecosystem (Cabell and Oelofsen, 2012) expert opinions are collected by using electronic survey and very preliminary discussion of resilience of Finnish food system may be possible.

Paper will be based on master’s thesis work.

Reference: Cabell, J. F., & Oelofse, M. (2012). An indicator framework for assessing agroecosystem resilience. Ecology and Society, 17(1), 18. doi:10.5751/ES-04666-170118

Toilet Cultures/Futures: Sustainability and Climate Futures

Bussey Marcus Sustainability Research Centre, University of the Sunshine Coast, Queensland, Australia, mbussey@usc.edu.au This paper explores climate change futures via the futures of the toilet as a site that is both intimate and social. Toilets are part of all collective spaces whether they be the home or the civic centre. Thus toilets are spaces for both practical and cultural engagements with climate change. In this engagement issues of hygiene and social action are tied to social practices and also to questions of identity, value and taboo. As a cultural artefact the toilet has both a practical and also a metaphoric role in efforts to establish both sustainable cultures and also to challenge dominant colonial practices in which the toilet is a metaphor of ‘civilisation’ and the pedestal toilet in particular represents the West. As such toilets are contested spaces with global geographies and histories of toilets mapping the tensions in sustainability practice and futures in vivid and striking ways. This paper explores these tensions and maps out a set of possible futures scenarios (flushed away; compost; squat; cyber-toilet) for both developing and developed countries and their responses to climate change.

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WG 11: Reasons and Implications of Climate Change

Chair: Jouni Räisänen, University of Helsinki

Room: E109 Thursday 12th June

13:00–15:00

Is uncertainty in future climate projections a reason for users to postpone their decisions on adaptation?

Ylhäisi Jussi S. 1, Räisänen Jouni 1 and Perrels Adriaan 2

1 University of Helsinki, Department of Physics, Finland, Corresponding author: jussi.s.ylhaisi@helsinki.fi 2 Finnish Meteorological Institute, Finland Many climate change adaptation problems benefit from the use of climate models. However, there are shortcomings related to both the state of scientific knowledge in the models and the spatial/temporal resolution needed by the local end-users. Overcoming them is the objective for a major proportion of climate research and is most typically done by studying various processes in the earth system and improving their representation in the climate models. As the models thus become more sophisticated, this is hoped to accordingly improve the estimates of the extent of climate change. However, based on literature and our recent findings, there may be structural limits to this assumption, partly stemming from the climate system itself. As a result of recent model development, uncertainty estimates of climate model predictions have increased and may never be considerably reduced. Various risk analysis approaches would demand more emphasis in adaptation assessments. Decision makers at several levels would benefit from mutual interaction with climate modelers. Without this, some adaptation decisions might be postponed only because of the large uncertainty related to climate projections. This can be highly unwise, if proper risk management applications, such as option value theory, are not applied to the problem at hand.

Climate Warming: is there evidence in Africa?

Cárcel Hector1 and Gil-Alana Luis A. 2 1 University of Navarra, ICS, Navarra Centre for International Development, Pamplona, Spain, alana@unav.es 2 University of Navarra, Faculty of Economics and ICS, Navarra Centre for International Development, Pamplona, Spain [Gil-Alana Luis A. acknowledges financial support from the Ministry of Education of Spain]. In this paper we have examined the temperature time series across several locations in Africa. In particular, we focus on three countries, South Africa, Kenya and Côte d’Ivoire, examining the monthly averaged temperatures from three weather stations at different locations in each country. We examine the presence of deterministic trends in the series in order to check if the hypothesis of warming trends for these countries holds, however, instead of using conventional approaches based on stationary I(0) errors we allow for fractional integration, which seems to be a more plausible approach in this context. Our results indicate that temperatures have only significantly increased during the last 30 years for the case of Kenya. Key words: Africa; climate warming; fractional integration

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Reason for Major Climate Changes

Kauppinen Jyrki Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Turku, Finland, jyrki.kauppinen @utu.fi According to our paper (1) we were able to derive an expression for the change of the global mean temperature. The temperature change can be calculated using the changes in CO2 concentration and in relative humidity or in low cloud cover (2). We will present an experimental proof of the above statement. This is done in the case of relative humidity from year 1970 to this day and in the case of low cloud cover between years 1983 and 2008. In both cases the temperature change is equal to the observed temperature anomaly within experimental error limits and the contribution of CO2 is less than 10%. Using the changes of the observed relative humidity our expression explains a tiny decrease in temperature that has happened during the last 17 years. IPCC has predicted an increase of about 0.3°C in the same time period. Kauppinen J., Heinonen J. T., and Malmi P. J. ”Major Portions in Climate Change: Physical Approach”. International Review of Physics, Vol.5. N.5. 260-270 (2011) Jyrki Kauppinen, Jorma Heinonen and Pekka Malmi “Influence of Relative Humidity and Clouds on the Global Mean Temperature” Energy&Enviroment (in Press).

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WG 12: Methodological and Theoretical Perspectives to Climate Change and Futures Studies

Rooms: Hall F and E110

Wednesday 11th June

13:00-15:00 (Hall F)

Chair: Sohail Inayatullah, Tamkang University, Taiwan

What is futures studies?

Höjer Mattias & Svenfelt Åsa Environmental strategies research, Dept of Sustainable development, Environmental science and Engineering, KTH – Royal Institute of Technology, Sweden The futures studies field is characterized by plurality in disciplines involved and methods used, but also regarding the theories and assumptions that form its basis. Several authors have contributed to an epistemology for the field, and the name of the field has been debated. Fewer authors have defined and discussed what futures studies is, and even fewer what it is not. In this paper we address and expand the discussion by exploring the question “What is futures studies and what is not? Hence, the overall aim of this paper is to contribute to and inspire the discussion on what futures studies is. We discuss four different types of studies that could potentially be considered futures studies: forecasts, science fiction, spatial planning, and contemporary studies of issues potentially important for the future. Based on this, we define what kind of studies we consider to be futures studies and why and define four accompanying characteristics that futures study should fulfill. Futures studies should: aim at preparing for several different futures or understand how a certain target can be attained; include descriptions of the future; include analysis of the descriptions of the future and focus on uncertain, or certain but undesired, futures.

It takes a climate of change to tackle climate change − Reflecting on a foresight culture in service of sustainability transitions

Vrščaj Darja 1, Fraikin Iris 1 and Nevens Iris 2 1 Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences, Maastricht University, the Netherlands, darja.vrscaj@student. maastrichtuniversity.nl, i.fraikin@student.maastrichtuniversity.nl 2 VITO − The Flemish Institute for Technological Research, Belgium, frank.nevens@vito.be Typically ‘wicked’ sustainability issues such as climate change cover complex, systemic settings and hence ask for radical and integrated changes at multiple societal levels and from diverse actors. In this paper, we reflect on the essentials of a transdisciplinary framework that combines the fields of Future Studies, Transition Management, Science and Technology Studies, Human Development, and Sustainability Science in favour of that purpose. We examine the co-contribution of these fields with regards to specific essentials of (a) stirring sense of urgency, (b) detecting and deploying tipping points, (c) assessing common capabilities, needs and values, (d) connecting diverse actors (e) accelerating/up scaling ongoing (grass root) dynamics, (f) offering orientation and guidance, (g) co-creating desirable

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futures, ownership and engagement and (h) dealing with uncertainty and complexity rather than avoiding them.

Our general hypothesis is that rather than in a mechanistic and ‘systematic’ way, different disciplinary fields should be deployed in a profoundly coherent and ‘systemic’ way. The latter asks for a climate of change towards a new culture throughout science, business, policy, life styles, etc. And in that, we are not that much in an era of change, but rather in a change of era.

The futures of privacy: balancing trends and images of the future in studying social institutions

Minkkinen Matti M.A., University of Turku, Finland, matmin@utu.fi The methodological working group paper examines studying the possible futures of a social institution. The paper takes the case of privacy and defines privacy as a normative social institution that changes over time as it is challenged by new technologies and practices. The meta-theoretical approach is influenced by critical futures studies. Critical futurists emphasise that ways of thinking about the future are connected to cultural discourses and societal interests. However, the epistemological viewpoint differs from that of critical futures studies. While critical futurists see futures as discursively produced, in the paper futures are viewed as the result of path-dependent processes as well as past and present actions. Possible futures are examined as the dialectic of objective processes and subjective images of the future. The main aim of the paper is to seek a balance between these two aspects: culturally conditioned ways of thinking about the future and objective trends and processes which shape future possibilities. Although the paper discusses privacy in particular, the methodological findings are applicable to studying the futures of normative institutions in general and they contribute to futures studies as the study of societal change.

Chair: Jyrki Luukkanen, University of Turku, Finland

"Sustainability Window" as a tool for combining social and environmental dimensions of sustainability

Panula-Ontto Juha, Luukkanen Jyrki, Vehmas Jarmo and Kaivo-oja Jari Finland Futures Research Centre, University of Turku, Finland, juha.panula-ontto@utu.fi Definition and measurement of sustainability remains an important challenge for environmental and social science as well as for policy-making. In addition to the environmental aspect of sustainability, considerations of social and economic aspects are often incorporated into the definition of sustainability. Weighted indicator sets are often used in attempts to quantitatively assess sustainability defined by multiple dimensions. Sustainability Window is a novel quantitative method that enables the assessment of economic expansion from both environmental sustainability and social sustainability points of view. It provides an alternative approach to indicator sets for assessing multi-dimensional sustainability. Sustainability window allows for quantitative definition of lower and upper boundaries of economic growth for national economies in respect to socio-economic sustainability and environmental sustainability.

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Prospects for a Sustainable Low-Carbon Future for Jamaica

Abdulkadri Abdullahi Department of Economics, University of the West Indies, Jamaica

The high cost of energy in Jamaica, one of the highest in the Caribbean region, is usually cited as a hindrance to industrial development and efficiency, especially in the manufacturing sector. High energy cost is also considered to be a national energy security issue and the government is taking steps to ensure adequate supply of energy at affordable prices. In the current National Development Plan, the government has set a target for renewable energy to supply 15% of the country's energy need by 2020. Using energy planning models, this paper examines how realistically this target could be achieved with different renewable energy mixes and the associated cost of attaining a particular energy mix. The potential for carbon emissions reduction associated with each mix is also examined. The findings will inform energy policy and national developing planning in Jamaica. 15:30-16:30 (Hall F)

Chair: Jyrki Luukkanen, University of Turku, Finland

The Economic Impact of Climate Change on Energy Demand in Jamaica

Evans Alecia & McKenzie Sidonia University of the West Indies, Jamaica, alecia.evans02@uwimona.edu.jm, sidonia.mckenzie@gmail.com

It has been unanimously agreed upon that Jamaica must take steps to reduce reliance on fossil fuel energy sources in order to reduce its enormous energy bill. This paper is an empirical investigation of the economic rationale for adaptation and mitigation measures relating to energy use in Jamaica. It utilizes the Stock-Watson Dynamic OLS (DOLS) approach to estimate the relationship between climate change and energy demand in Jamaica using seasonal temperature changes and energy consumption, respectively as proxy variables. The results indicate a long run relationship between temperature and electricity consumption which implies that climate change adaptation measures becomes critical for sustainable energy in Jamaica. Additionally, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) alternative climate scenarios, A2 and B2, is compared to the baseline situation of no climate change. Under these scenarios, the economic cost of changes in energy demand influenced by climate change is calculated for Jamaica. Other major factors that contribute to the growth in energy demand in Jamaica are also highlighted. The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of any of the institutions to which the authors are affiliated. Key words: Climate change, energy, DOLS

Solar resource modelling for tropical regions using the Markov transition probability matrix method

Chambers Therese University of Technology, Jamaica, tchambers@utech.edu.jm

As measured solar insolation data is not available for all locations; modelling the resource is important in the planning of energy systems that include the use of PV panels. Extraterrestrial insolation is predictable and can be calculated for any location. Sunshine duration and intensity vary depending on the season, month and latitude of the particular location. Therefore the insolation throughout the day

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can be predicted using parameters that represent the month, latitude and additional location information. However, due to the presence of atmospheric variations, air mass changes and clouds, the insolation is rendered stochastic. These effects are defined by the clearness index. The clearness index is the ratio of the measured solar insolation to the extraterrestrial insolation in each time step. The Markov transition probability matrix (MTPM) method for modelling the clearness index was used to develop the half hourly clearness index time series model. The clearness index time series was then applied to the calculated half hourly extraterrestrial insolation time series to determine the beam, diffuse and reflected insolation on a tilted solar collector for each half hour. The three insolation types were summed to find the solar insolation for each time step for one year. Key words: Solar resource, clearness index, modelling, Markov Thursday 12th June (E110)

13:00−15:00

Chair: Jari Kaivo-oja, University of Turku, Finland

The social and cultural dimensions of sustainable development, mitigation and scenarios: Grasping the opportunities for human development.

O’ Mahony Tadhg 1, and Dufour Javier 1,2 1 Systems Analysis Unit, IMDEA Energy Institute, Spain, tadhg.omahony@imdea.org 2 Department of Chemical and Energy Technology, Rey Juan Carlos University, Spain. The concept of national development pathways has been identified as an appropriate method to explore both sustainable development and effective mitigation with policy and methodological implications. A dominant focus within national development policy on economic and technological development is unlikely to engender sustainable development. It is also conceptually erroneous as social, cultural and political dimensions have been acknowledged as the ´ultimate drivers´ of change in future scenarios. As a process, this is akin to moving from the concept of ´green economy´ to ´green society´. Operationalising these dimensions in both analysis and policy can be achieved through awareness of unifying concepts such as human development, “the good life” and lifestyle. In analysis these can be implemented by exploratory or backcasting scenarios. Such scenarios could then be used to articulate truly integrated long term national sustainable development strategies. National development policy would then be structured around sustainable development, encompassing economic development and mitigation policy, illuminated by underlying social, cultural and governance factors and objectives. Focussing on societal and personal human development therefore offers a promising approach both methodologically and for sustainable development policy. The ultimate objective of such an approach is actualising well-being, in tandem with cost and environmentally effective mitigation.

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Global Transport Biofuel Futures in Energy-economy modeling – a review

Ahlgren Erik O., Börjesson Martin and Grahn Maria Department of Energy and Environment, Chalmers University of Technology, Sweden, erik.ahlgren@chalmers.se. The high oil dependence and the growth of energy use in the transport sector have increased interest in alternative fuels as a measure to mitigate climate change and improve energy security. More ambitious energy and environmental targets and larger use of alternative energy in the transport sector increase system effects over sector boundaries, and while the stationary energy sector (e.g., electricity and heat generation) and the transport sector earlier to large degree could be considered as separate systems with limited interaction, integrated analysis approaches now grow in importance.

In recent years, the scientific literature has presented an increasing number of energyeconomic systems analysis modeling studies treating the transport sector as an integrated part of the energy system and/or economy. Many of these studies provide important insights regarding transport biofuels. To clarify similarities and differences in approaches and results, the present work reviews studies within this field. The work investigates what future role comprehensive energy-economy modeling studies portray for transport biofuels in terms of their potential and competitiveness. This includes a mapping of what future transport biofuel utilization and market shares the studies describe, an analysis of which factors influence this, and a discussion of what conclusions that might be drawn.

Strong sustainability: a matter of intergenerational justice

Hormio Säde Social and Moral Philosophy, Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Helsinki, Finland, sade.hormio@helsinki.fi Future generations are inescapably linked to climate change. Climate economists have to incorporate future people into their models, despite not knowing their preferences. Neumayer (2013) argues that cost-benefit analyses tend to assume that environmental damage can be compensated by growth in material benefits, i.e. they make a normative assumption of perfect substitutability. Furthermore, he claims that the validity of this “perfect substitutability paradigm” boils down to “a matter of belief” only. I argue that this is not so. We do not know what future people want, but given that natural capital offers the raw materials for man-made capital, preserving natural capital allows future generations to make decisions about the form their capital takes. If we consume “more than our share” of natural resources, we might ultimately curb future generations’ options drastically. Intergenerational justice requires we favour strong sustainability over weak sustainability, i.e. we should reject the perfect substitutability paradigm. I also argue that proponents of strong sustainability do not need to show that individuals have lexicographic preferences with respect to environmental amenities, nor do they have to be committed to the view that anything that inflicts harm on future generations is unjustified and cannot be compensated.

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FINLAND FUTURES RESEARCH CENTRE

Turku School of Economics FI-20014 University of Turku

Turku: Rehtorinpellonkatu 3, FI-20500 Turku

Helsinki: Korkeavuorenkatu 25 A 2, FI-00130 Helsinki Tampere: Yliopistonkatu 58 D, FI-33100 Tampere

utu.fi/ffrc tutu-info@utu.fi