Progressing through PROGRESA: An Impact Assessment of a School Subsidy Experiment in Mexico

Jere Behrman, Pilyali Sengupta and Petra Todd

by

“Progressing Through Progresa: An ImpactAssessment of a School Subsidy Experiment"

PIER Working Paper 01-033

Penn Institute for Economic Research Department of Economics University of Pennsylvania

3718 Locust Walk Philadelphia, PA 19103-6297

[email protected]://www.econ.upenn.edu/pier

http://papers.ssrn.com/abstract=286295

http://papers.ssrn.com/abstract=XXXXXX

http://papers.ssrn.com/abstract=286295

http://www.econ.upenn.edu/pier

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nrol

led

6 8 10 12 14 16

4060

8010

0

November 1999

+ + + + + +

+

+

+

+

+

+ + + + + ++

+

+

+

+

6 8 10 12 14 16

4060

8010

0

controlstreatments

Figure 1a: Percentage Enrolled by Age, All Children

age

perc

ent e

nrol

led

6 8 10 12 14 16

4060

8010

0

October 1997

++ + + + +

+

+

+

+

++ + + + +

+

+

+

++

6 8 10 12 14 16

4060

8010

0

controlstreatments

age

perc

ent e

nrol

led

6 8 10 12 14 16

4060

8010

0

October 1998

++ + + + +

+

++

+

++ + + + +

+

+

+

++

6 8 10 12 14 16

4060

8010

0

controlstreatments

age

perc

ent e

nrol

led

6 8 10 12 14 16

4060

8010

0

November 1999

+ + + + + +

+

+

+

+

+

+ + + + + ++

+

+

+

+

6 8 10 12 14 16

4060

8010

0

controlstreatments

Figure 1b: Percentage Enrolled by Age, Girls Only

age

perc

ent e

nrol

led

6 8 10 12 14 16

4060

8010

0

October 1997

++ + + + +

+

+

+

++

+ + + + + ++

+

+

++

6 8 10 12 14 16

4060

8010

0

controlstreatments

age

perc

ent e

nrol

led

6 8 10 12 14 16

4060

8010

0

October 1998

++ + + + +

++

++

+

++ + + + +

++

+

+

+

6 8 10 12 14 16

4060

8010

0

controlstreatments

age

perc

ent e

nrol

led

6 8 10 12 14 16

4060

8010

0

November 1999

+ + + + + ++

+

+

+

+

+ + + + + ++

+

+

+

+

6 8 10 12 14 16

4060

8010

0

controlstreatments

Figure 1c: Percentage Enrolled by Age, Boys Only

age

est.

impa

ct

6 8 10 12 14 16

-50

510

15

October 1998

+ + ++

++

+

+

+

+ +

6 8 10 12 14 16

-50

510

15

age

est.

impa

ct

6 8 10 12 14 16

-50

510

15

November 1999

+ + + ++ +

+

++ +

+

6 8 10 12 14 16

-50

510

15

age

est.

impa

ct

6 8 10 12 14 16

-50

510

15

1999-1997 Difference-in-Difference Estimate

++

+ ++ +

+ ++

+

+

6 8 10 12 14 16

-50

510

15

Figure 2a: Average Treatment Impacts on Percentage Enrolled by Age, All Children

age

est.

impa

ct

6 8 10 12 14 16

-50

510

15

October 1998

++

+ + + +

+

+

+

++

6 8 10 12 14 16

-50

510

15

age

est.

impa

ct

6 8 10 12 14 16

-50

510

15

November 1999

++ +

+ ++

+

++

++

6 8 10 12 14 16

-50

510

15

age

est.

impa

ct

6 8 10 12 14 16

-50

510

15


+ + +

+ +

+

+

+

+

+

+

6 8 10 12 14 16

-50

510

15

Figure 2b: Average Treatment Impacts on Percentage Enrolled by Age, Girls Only

age

est.

impa

ct

6 8 10 12 14 16

-50

510

15

October 1998

+ + +

+

+

++

+

+

+ +

6 8 10 12 14 16

-50

510

15

age

est.

impa

ct

6 8 10 12 14 16

-50

510

15

November 1999

+ + + +

++

+

+

+ +

+

6 8 10 12 14 16

-50

510

15

age

est.

impa

ct

6 8 10 12 14 16

-50

510

15


+

++

++

+ +

++ + +

6 8 10 12 14 16

-50

510

15

Figure 2c: Average Treatment Impacts on Percentage Enrolled by Age, Boys Only

age

aver

age

scho

olin

g ga

p

6 8 10 12 14 16

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

October, 1998

boysgirls

age

aver

age

scho

olin

g ga

p

6 8 10 12 14 16

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

Male-Female Difference

age

aver

age

scho

olin

g ga

p

6 8 10 12 14 16

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

November, 1999

boysgirls

age

aver

age

scho

olin

g ga

p

6 8 10 12 14 16

0.0

0.2

0.4

Male-Female Difference

Figure 3: Comparison of Schooling Gap for Girls and Boys, Control Group(Gap=Potential Grade Level-Actual Schooling Grade Level)

age

6 8 10 12 14 16

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

October 1998

++ + +

+

+ ++

+

+

+

6 8 10 12 14 16

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

age

6 8 10 12 14 16

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

November 1999

+ + ++

++

+

+

+

+

+

6 8 10 12 14 16

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

age

6 8 10 12 14 16

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2


+ + + ++

+

+ +

+

+

+

6 8 10 12 14 16

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

Figure 4a: Average Treatment-Control Schooling Gap

(Gap=Potential Grade Level-Actual Schooling Grade Level)

age

6 8 10 12 14 16

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

October 1998

+ ++ +

+

+

++ +

+ +

6 8 10 12 14 16

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

age

6 8 10 12 14 16

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

November 1999

+ + ++ +

+

+

++

+

+

6 8 10 12 14 16

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

age

6 8 10 12 14 16

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2


+ ++

++

+

++ +

+

+

6 8 10 12 14 16

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

Figure 4b: Average Treatment-Control Schooling Gap, Girls Only


age

6 8 10 12 14 16

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

October 1998

++ +

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

6 8 10 12 14 16

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

age

6 8 10 12 14 16

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

November 1999

++ +

+

+ + + +

+

+

+

6 8 10 12 14 16

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

age

6 8 10 12 14 16

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2


+ + +

+

++

++

+

+

+

6 8 10 12 14 16

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

Figure 4c: Average Treatment-Control Schooling Gap, Boys Only


age

8 10 12 14

010

2030

October 1998

+ +

+

+

+

+

++ +

++ + + +

+

+

+

+

++ +

++

+

+

+

+

+ + + ++

+ +

+

+

8 10 12 14

010

2030

bottom quartile2nd quartile3rd quartiletop quartile

age

8 10 12 14

010

2030

November 1999

++

+ ++

+ +

+

++

+ +

+

+

++

+ + +

+

+ ++

++ + + +

++

+

+

8 10 12 14

010

2030


age

8 10 12 14

010

2030


+

+

+ ++

+

+

+

++ + +

+

+

+

+

+ + ++

+

+

+

+ + + +

+

++ +

8 10 12 14

010

2030


Figure 5a: Average Treatment Impacts on Percentage Enrolled by Prob of Enrollment, All Children

age

8 10 12 14

-10

010

2030

October 1998

++

++ +

++ +

+

+

++

++

+

+

+

+

+ + + + +

+

+

+

+

+ + ++

++

+ +

+

8 10 12 14

-10

010

2030


age

8 10 12 14

-10

010

2030

November 1999

+ +

+ ++

++

+

++

++

+

+ +

+

++ +

+

+

+

+

++ ++ +

++ +

+

8 10 12 14

-10

010

2030


age

8 10 12 14

-10

010

2030


++

+ ++

+

+

+

+

++

+

+

+

+

+

++

+

+

+

++ ++ +

+ +

+

+

8 10 12 14

-10

010

2030


Figure 5b: Average Treatment Impacts on Percentage Enrolled by Prob of Enrollment, Girls

age

8 10 12 14

-10

010

2030

October 1998

++

+

+

+ +

++

+

+ ++ + +

++

+

+

++ +

++

+

+

+ ++

+ ++ +

+

+

+

+

8 10 12 14

-10

010

2030


age

8 10 12 14

-10

010

2030

November 1999

+

+

++

++

+

++ +

+ ++

+

+ +

++ +

+ +

++

++ + + +

+

+ +

+

8 10 12 14

-10

010

2030


age

8 10 12 14

-10

010

2030


++

+ +

++

+

+

+

++

+ +

+

+

+

++

+

+

+ +

+

++ + +

+

+ ++

8 10 12 14

-10

010

2030


Figure 5c: Average Treatment Impacts on Percentage Enrolled by Prob of Enrollment, Boys

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

010

2030

4050

education level

perc

ent

With Treatment

0 0 0.1 0.2 0.62

11.2

17.8

26.1

37.6

4.5

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

010

2030

4050

education level

perc

ent

Without Treatment

0.1 0 0.1 0.5 1.75

26.2

15

23.425.8

2.3

Figure 6: Simulated Education Distribution at Age 14

Table 1Monthly Transfers for School Attendance under the PROGRESA Program

SchoolLevel

Grade Monthly Payment in Pesos Payment/Payment forPrevious Grade (%)

Females/Males (%)

Females Males Females MalesPrimary 3 70 70 --- --- 100

4 80 80 114 114 1005 105 105 131 131 1006 135 135 129 129 100

Secondary 1 210 200 156 148 1052 235 210 112 105 1123 255 225 109 107 113

(a) Source: Schultz (1999a, Table 1). Corresponds to first term of the 1998-99 school year.

Table 2Percentages Working for Pay and Average Monthly Earnings

for Control Group Children by Age and Sexage Fraction working for pay Percentage of children

who attend school amongthose who work for pay

Average MonthlyEarnings in Pesos for

Children who Work forPay (# of observations in

parentheses)Females Males Females Males Females Males

6 0 0 * * * *

7 0 0 * * * *

8 1.15 1.61 100 100 130(3)

1120(1)

9 1.00 2.72 100 90 20(1)

416(3)

10 1.09 1.58 80 83 340(2)

565(4)

11 1.69 4.26 67 72 700(2)

398(12)

12 3.66 9.43 62 62 511(10)

628(28)

13 4.50 14.63 14 23 566(15)

535(43)

14 7.96 23.91 5 22 631(27)

591(78)

15 15.61 41.26 5 15 596(25)

677(128)

16 13.22 48.65 3 11 526(25)

671(112)

Table 3aProgram Impacts on Proportion Enrolled (All Children)

(T-statistics in parentheses)Variable (all are indicator variables) Oct. 1997 Oct. 1998 Nov. 1999

age 6 0.89(80.60)

0.92(83.19)

0.96(80.30)

age 7 0.94(85.16)

0.97(90.87)

0.97(89.92)

age 8 0.94(84.71)

0.96(91.37)

0.98(95.45)

age 9 0.95(80.19)

0.96(87.42)

0.98(91.09)

age 10 0.94(84.14)

0.96(86.40)

0.96(92.84)

age 11 0.92(80.72)

0.93(84.56)

0.95(84.95)

age 12 0.83(71.26)

0.81(74.63)

0.86(82.51)

age 13 0.69(55.40)

0.74(65.17)

0.74(67.66)

age 14 0.57(42.89)

0.55(45.40)

0.63(57.25)

age 15 0.39(26.52)

0.43(33.46)

0.44(36.85)

age 16 0.31(16.91)

0.29(20.52)

0.32(25.47)

age 17 0.26(8.06)

* 0.23(16.83)

age 18 0.07(0.81)

* 0.16(10.39)

treatment*age 6 0.02(1.09)

0.00(0.16)

0.00(0.32)


0.00(0.27)

0.01(0.73)


0.01(0.55)

0.01(0.62)


0.02(1.42)

0.00(0.03)


0.0(0.35)

0.02(1.52)


0.03(2.08)

0.02(1.37)

treatment*age 12 -0.01(-0.52)

0.09(6.27)

0.06(4.48)


0.07(4.60)

0.10(7.54)


0.16(10.68)

0.09(6.67)


0.05(2.94)

0.09(6.10)


0.06(3.10)

0.07(4.40)


* 0.04(2.17)


* 0.01(0.35)

p-value from chi-square test that impactsare 0 for all ages

0.5652 <0.0001 <0.0001

p-value from chi-square test that impactsare 0 for ages 12 and older

0.3456 <0.0001 <0.0001

Table 3bProgram Impacts on Proportion Enrolled (Girls)


age 6 0.89(57.95)

0.92(58.05)

0.96(57.22)

age 7 0.94(58.21)

0.97(64.49)

0.96(62.91)

age 8 0.94(60.12)

0.96(61.81)

0.98(67.05)

age 9 0.95(56.99)

0.96(61.80)

0.99(65.68)

age 10 0.93(58.19)

0.96(60.28)

0.97(66.38)

age 11 0.92(56.96)

0.94(59.54)

0.95(59.26)

age 12 0.81(47.19)

0.76(49.61)

0.83(56.78)

age 13 0.65(36.60)

0.69(41.76)

0.71(46.69)

age 14 0.52(26.62)

0.52(29.57)

0.60(37.17)

age 15 0.34(16.23)

0.36(18.89)

0.42(24.36)

age 16 0.23(8.25)

0.27(12.74)

0.28(14.57)

age 17 0.26(5.54)

* 0.24(11.76)

age 18 0(0.00)

* 0.13(5.84)


0.00(0.17)

0.00(0.14)


-0.01(-0.34)

0.01(0.69)


0.01(0.43)

0.01(0.54)


0.02(0.75)

-0.01(-0.40)


0.01(0.33)

0.00(0.13)


0.02(0.83)

0.01(0.62)


0.11(5.79)

0.07(3.88)


0.08(3.52)

0.11(5.66)


0.14(6.43)

0.12(5.99)


0.06(2.24)

0.11(4.94)


0.08(2.92)

0.09(3.84)


* 0.03(1.06)


* 0.04(1.32)


0.37 <0.0001 <0.0001


0.21 <0.0001 <0.0001

Table 3cProgram Impacts on Proportion Enrolled (Boys)


age 6 0.90(56.33)

0.91(59.90)

0.95(56.39)

age 7 0.94(62.43)

0.96(64.32)

0.97(64.30)

age 8 0.95(60.08)

0.97(67.56)

0.98(68.00)

age 9 0.96(56.72)

0.96(62.12)

0.98(63.04)

age 10 0.95(61.13)

0.95(62.22)

0.95(64.98)

age 11 0.92(57.52)

0.93(60.33)

0.95(60.92)

age 12 0.85(53.74)

0.85(56.26)

0.88(59.97)

age 13 0.73(41.96)

0.79(50.64)

0.76(49.06)

age 14 0.61(33.99)

0.56(34.75)

0.66(43.67)

age 15 0.42(21.25)

0.50(28.44)

0.46(27.72)

age 16 0.38(15.42)

0.31(16.28)

0.36(21.19)

age 17 0.27(5.89)

* 0.23(12.05)

age 18 0.14(1.15)

* 0.18(8.76)


0.00(0.05)

0.01(0.32)


0.01(0.74)

0.01(0.34)


0.01(0.38)

0.01(0.34)


0.02(1.25)

0.01(0.46)


0.00(0.16)

0.04(2.00)


0.04(2.10)

0.03(1.31)


0.06(3.05)

0.04(2.36)


0.06(2.87)

0.10(5.00)


0.18(8.66)

0.07(3.55)


0.03(1.43)

0.08(3.69)


0.03(1.46)

0.05(2.32)


* 0.05(1.97)


* -0.02(-0.75)


0.3023 <0.0001 <0.0001


0.5464 <0.0001 <0.0001

-- --

Table 4(b)Eligible Treatment Transition Matrix


3 2 1 Drop NEP(4 | G) 0.28 0.11 0.05 ... 0.12P(3 | G) 0.71 0.66 0.21 0.60 0.20P(2 | G) ... 0.23 0.62 0.40 0.37P(1 | G) ... ... 0.10 ... 0.17P(Drop | G) 0.01 0.00 0.03 ... ...P(NE | NE) ... ... ... ... 0.14No. obs 128 775 252 10.0 65.0


Grade (G)3 2 1 Drop NE

P(4 | G) 0.17 0.10 0.05 1.00 0.09P(3 | G) 0.83 0.59 0.22 ... 0.19P(2 | G) ... 0.30 0.58 ... 0.25P(1 | G) ... ... 0.14 ... 0.15P(Drop | G) ... 0.01 0.02 ... ...P(NE | NE) ... ... ... ... 0.32No. obs 70.0 468 165 1.00 53.0


Grade (G)3 2 1 Drop NE

P(4 | G) 0.11 0.01 -.00 -1.0 0.03P(3 | G) -.12 0.07 -.01 0.60 0.01P(2 | G) ... -.07 0.04 0.40 0.12P(1 | G) ... ... -.04 ... 0.02P(Drop | G) 0.01 -.00 0.01 ... ...P(NE | NE) ... ... ... ... -.18No. obs 198 1243 417 11.0 118p-value 0.16 0.03 0.71 0.00 0.19

-- --

Table 4(c)Eligible Treatment Transition Matrix


4 3 2 1 Drop NEP(5 | G) 0.19 0.06 0.03 ... ... ...P(4 | G) 0.81 0.70 0.24 0.26 0.77 0.12P(3 | G) ... 0.23 0.54 0.23 0.08 0.14P(2 | G) ... ... 0.19 0.46 0.15 0.21P(1 | G) ... ... ... 0.05 ... 0.17P(Drop | G) ... 0.00 0.00 ... ... ...P(NE | NE) ... ... ... ... ... 0.36No. obs 110 618 435 65.0 13.0 42.0P(G) 0.09 0.48 0.34 0.05 0.03 .


Grade (G)4 3 2 1 Drop NE

P(5 | G) 0.13 0.07 0.03 ... ... ...P(4 | G) 0.88 0.62 0.16 0.28 0.43 0.06P(3 | G) ... 0.30 0.60 0.17 0.43 0.31P(2 | G) ... ... 0.21 0.37 ... 0.03P(1 | G) ... ... ... 0.15 ... 0.11P(Drop | G) ... 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.14 ...P(NE | NE) ... ... ... ... ... 0.49No. obs 64.0 328 257 46.0 7.00 35.0P(G) 0.09 0.45 0.35 0.06 0.05 .


Grade (G)4 3 2 1 Drop NE

P(5 | G) 0.07 -.01 0.00 ... ... ...P(4 | G) -.07 0.08 0.08 -.02 0.34 0.06P(3 | G) ... -.07 -.06 0.06 -.35 -.17P(2 | G) ... ... -.02 0.09 0.15 0.19P(1 | G) ... ... ... -.11 ... 0.05P(Drop | G) ... 0.00 -.01 -.02 -.14 ...P(NE | NE) ... ... ... ... ... -.13No. obs 174 946 692 111 20.0 77.0p-value 0.26 0.08 0.07 0.22 0.09 0.05

-- --

Table 4(d)Eligible Treatment Transition Matrix


5 4 3 2 1 Drop NEP(6 | G) 0.26 0.06 0.02 ... ... 0.05 ...P(5 | G) 0.74 0.72 0.19 0.15 ... 0.53 ...P(4 | G) ... 0.22 0.60 0.24 0.47 0.21 0.26P(3 | G) ... ... 0.19 0.44 0.20 0.16 0.15P(2 | G) ... ... ... 0.14 0.20 ... 0.15P(1 | G) ... ... ... ... 0.13 ... 0.07P(Drop | G) ... 0.01 0.01 0.03 ... 0.05 ...P(NE | NE) ... ... ... ... ... ... 0.37No. obs 72.0 524 372 177 15.0 19.0 27.0P(G) 0.06 0.43 0.31 0.15 0.01 0.02 0.02


Grade (G)5 4 3 2 1 Drop NE

P(6 | G) 0.17 0.06 0.01 ... ... ... ...P(5 | G) 0.83 0.64 0.17 0.10 ... 0.25 ...P(4 | G) ... 0.30 0.59 0.17 0.12 0.50 0.22P(3 | G) ... ... 0.21 0.51 0.18 0.13 0.11P(2 | G) ... ... ... 0.20 0.47 ... 0.22P(1 | G) ... ... ... ... 0.12 ... 0.06P(Drop | G) ... 0.00 0.02 0.02 0.12 0.13 ...P(NE | NE) ... ... ... ... ... ... 0.39No. obs 48.0 266 223 92.0 17.0 8.00 18.0P(G) 0.07 0.40 0.33 0.14 0.03 0.01 0.03


Grade (G)5 4 3 2 1 Drop NE

P(6 | G) 0.10 -.01 0.01 ... ... 0.05 ...P(5 | G) -.10 0.08 0.02 0.05 ... 0.28 ...P(4 | G) ... -.08 0.01 0.06 0.35 -.29 0.04P(3 | G) ... ... -.03 -.07 0.02 0.03 0.04P(2 | G) ... ... ... -.05 -.27 ... -.07P(1 | G) ... ... ... ... 0.02 ... 0.02P(Drop | G) ... 0.00 -.01 0.01 -.12 -.07 ...P(NE | NE) ... ... ... ... ... ... -.02No. obs 120 790 595 269 32.0 27.0 45.0p-value 0.21 0.08 0.50 0.36 0.14 0.49 0.97

-- --

Table 4(e)Eligible Treatment Transition Matrix


6 5 4 3 2 1 Drop NEP(7 | G) 0.31 0.04 0.01 ... ... ... 0.09 ...P(6 | G) 0.67 0.75 0.20 0.15 ... ... 0.23 ...P(5 | G) ... 0.20 0.62 0.18 0.15 ... 0.23 ...P(4 | G) ... ... 0.16 0.44 0.20 0.50 0.14 0.11P(3 | G) ... ... ... 0.20 0.45 0.25 0.14 0.18P(2 | G) ... ... ... ... 0.18 0.25 0.09 0.18P(1 | G) ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 0.04P(Drop | G) 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.03 0.02 ... 0.09 ...P(NE | NE) ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 0.50No. obs 90.0 438 392 172 55.0 4.00 22.0 28.0P(G) 0.07 0.36 0.33 0.14 0.05 0.00 0.02 0.02


Grade (G)6 5 4 3 2 1 Drop NE

P(7 | G) 0.32 0.10 0.02 ... ... ... 0.06 ...P(6 | G) 0.64 0.68 0.15 0.08 ... ... 0.18 ...P(5 | G) ... 0.19 0.62 0.19 0.09 ... 0.35 ...P(4 | G) ... ... 0.20 0.49 0.11 0.67 0.12 0.04P(3 | G) ... ... ... 0.20 0.51 ... 0.12 0.17P(2 | G) ... ... ... ... 0.19 0.33 ... 0.09P(1 | G) ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...P(Drop | G) 0.04 0.03 0.01 0.05 0.11 ... 0.18 ...P(NE | NE) ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 0.70No. obs 50.0 280 230 102 47.0 3.00 17.0 23.0P(G) 0.07 0.37 0.31 0.14 0.06 0.00 0.02 0.03


Grade (G)6 5 4 3 2 1 Drop NE

P(7 | G) -.01 -.06 -.00 ... ... ... 0.03 ...P(6 | G) 0.03 0.07 0.04 0.07 ... ... 0.05 ...P(5 | G) ... 0.01 0.00 -.01 0.06 ... -.13 ...P(4 | G) ... ... -.04 -.05 0.09 -.17 0.02 0.06P(3 | G) ... ... ... 0.00 -.06 0.25 0.02 0.00P(2 | G) ... ... ... ... -.01 -.08 0.09 0.09P(1 | G) ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 0.04P(Drop | G) -.02 -.01 0.00 -.02 -.09 ... -.09 ...P(NE | NE) ... ... ... ... ... ... ... -.20No. obs 140 718 622 274 102 7.00 39.0 51.0p-value 0.82 0.00 0.51 0.44 0.22 0.65 0.82 0.55

-- --

Table 4(f)Eligible Treatment Transition Matrix


7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Drop NEP(8 | G) 0.24 0.05 0.01 ... ... ... ... 0.09 ...P(7 | G) 0.72 0.66 0.21 0.13 ... ... ... 0.26 ...P(6 | G) ... 0.15 0.65 0.19 0.13 ... ... 0.04 ...P(5 | G) ... ... 0.12 0.47 0.17 0.15 ... 0.04 ...P(4 | G) ... ... ... 0.18 0.48 0.30 ... 0.11 0.05P(3 | G) ... ... ... ... 0.18 0.30 1.00 ... 0.05P(2 | G) ... ... ... ... ... 0.25 ... 0.04 0.33P(1 | G) ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...P(Drop | G) 0.04 0.14 0.01 0.03 0.04 ... ... 0.41 ...P(NE | NE) ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 0.57No. obs 50.0 369 370 198 77.0 20.0 1.00 46.0 21.0P(G) 0.04 0.32 0.32 0.17 0.07 0.02 0.00 0.04 0.02


Grade (G)7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Drop NE

P(8 | G) 0.17 0.04 0.00 ... ... ... ... ... ...P(7 | G) 0.62 0.54 0.15 0.07 ... ... ... 0.14 ...P(6 | G) ... 0.19 0.63 0.18 0.09 ... ... 0.14 ...P(5 | G) ... ... 0.19 0.51 0.20 ... ... 0.09 ...P(4 | G) ... ... ... 0.18 0.50 0.33 0.33 0.05 ...P(3 | G) ... ... ... ... 0.17 0.33 0.33 ... 0.13P(2 | G) ... ... ... ... ... 0.11 0.33 ... ...P(1 | G) ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...P(Drop | G) 0.21 0.23 0.03 0.06 0.04 0.22 ... 0.59 ...P(NE | NE) ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 0.87No. obs 29.0 246 216 124 46.0 9.00 3.00 22.0 15.0P(G) 0.04 0.35 0.30 0.17 0.06 0.01 0.00 0.03 0.02


Grade (G)7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Drop NE

P(8 | G) 0.07 0.01 0.01 ... ... ... ... 0.09 ...P(7 | G) 0.10 0.12 0.06 0.06 ... ... ... 0.12 ...P(6 | G) ... -.04 0.02 0.01 0.04 ... ... -.09 ...P(5 | G) ... ... -.07 -.03 -.03 0.15 ... -.05 ...P(4 | G) ... ... ... -.00 -.02 -.03 -.33 0.06 0.05P(3 | G) ... ... ... ... 0.01 -.03 0.67 ... -.09P(2 | G) ... ... ... ... ... 0.14 -.33 0.04 0.33P(1 | G) ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...P(Drop | G) -.17 -.09 -.02 -.03 -.00 -.22 ... -.18 ...P(NE | NE) ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... -.30No. obs 79.0 615 586 322 123 29.0 4.00 68.0 36.0p-value 0.06 0.01 0.04 0.32 0.96 0.17 0.51 0.25 0.06

-- --

Table 4(g)Eligible Treatment Transition Matrix


8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Drop NEP(9 | G) 0.25 0.06 0.01 ... ... ... ... ... 0.01 ...P(8 | G) 0.75 0.62 0.12 0.06 ... ... ... ... 0.09 ...P(7 | G) ... 0.24 0.58 0.16 0.10 ... ... ... 0.25 ...P(6 | G) ... ... 0.11 0.58 0.17 0.15 ... ... 0.04 ...P(5 | G) ... ... ... 0.16 0.51 0.15 ... ... 0.01 ...P(4 | G) ... ... ... ... 0.17 0.44 0.20 ... 0.02 0.13P(3 | G) ... ... ... ... ... 0.18 0.40 1.00 0.01 ...P(2 | G) ... ... ... ... ... ... 0.13 ... 0.01 0.09P(1 | G) ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...P(Drop | G) ... 0.08 0.19 0.03 0.03 0.09 0.27 ... 0.57 ...P(NE | NE) ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 0.78No. obs 36.0 234 312 179 86.0 34.0 15.0 1.00 150 23.0P(G) 0.03 0.22 0.29 0.17 0.08 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.14 0.02


Grade (G)8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Drop NE

P(9 | G) 0.26 0.06 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...P(8 | G) 0.74 0.65 0.11 0.07 ... ... ... ... 0.03 ...P(7 | G) ... 0.16 0.46 0.14 0.11 ... ... ... 0.12 ...P(6 | G) ... ... 0.17 0.50 0.10 0.04 ... ... 0.01 ...P(5 | G) ... ... ... 0.18 0.39 0.15 ... ... 0.01 ...P(4 | G) ... ... ... ... 0.33 0.35 0.10 ... 0.03 0.10P(3 | G) ... ... ... ... ... 0.19 0.30 ... 0.04 0.05P(2 | G) ... ... ... ... ... ... 0.30 ... ... 0.05P(1 | G) ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 0.05P(Drop | G) ... 0.14 0.26 0.12 0.07 0.27 0.30 1.00 0.75 ...P(NE | NE) ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 0.75No. obs 34.0 139 190 121 61.0 26.0 10.0 1.00 69.0 20.0P(G) 0.05 0.21 0.28 0.18 0.09 0.04 0.01 0.00 0.10 0.03


Grade (G)8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Drop NE

P(9 | G) -.01 0.00 0.01 ... ... ... ... ... 0.01 ...P(8 | G) 0.01 -.03 0.01 -.00 ... ... ... ... 0.06 ...P(7 | G) ... 0.09 0.11 0.02 -.01 ... ... ... 0.13 ...P(6 | G) ... ... -.06 0.09 0.08 0.11 ... ... 0.03 ...P(5 | G) ... ... ... -.02 0.12 -.01 ... ... -.00 ...P(4 | G) ... ... ... ... -.15 0.10 0.10 ... -.01 0.03P(3 | G) ... ... ... ... ... -.02 0.10 1.00 -.04 -.05P(2 | G) ... ... ... ... ... ... -.17 ... 0.01 0.04P(1 | G) ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... -.05P(Drop | G) ... -.06 -.07 -.08 -.03 -.18 -.03 -1.0 -.18 ...P(NE | NE) ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 0.03No. obs 70.0 373 502 300 147 60.0 25.0 2.00 219 43.0p-value 0.89 0.10 0.02 0.07 0.15 0.29 0.71 0.16 0.08 0.63

-- --

Table 4(h)Eligible Treatment Transition Matrix


9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Drop NEP(10 | G) 0.35 0.06 0.02 ... ... ... ... ... ... 0.01 ...P(9 | G) 0.59 0.77 0.16 0.08 ... ... ... ... ... 0.05 ...P(8 | G) ... 0.14 0.54 0.14 0.10 ... ... ... ... 0.04 ...P(7 | G) ... ... 0.14 0.47 0.07 0.06 ... ... ... 0.20 ...P(6 | G) ... ... ... 0.11 0.60 0.19 0.25 ... ... 0.01 ...P(5 | G) ... ... ... ... 0.12 0.42 0.20 0.20 ... 0.02 ...P(4 | G) ... ... ... ... ... 0.17 0.40 0.20 ... ... 0.11P(3 | G) ... ... ... ... ... ... 0.05 0.20 ... 0.00 0.04P(2 | G) ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 0.40 ... ... ...P(1 | G) ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...P(Drop | G) 0.06 0.02 0.14 0.20 0.12 0.17 0.10 ... ... 0.67 ...P(NE | NE) ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 0.86No. obs 34.0 146 213 168 84.0 36.0 20.0 5.00 ... 228 28.0P(G) 0.04 0.15 0.22 0.17 0.09 0.04 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.24 0.03


Grade (G)9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Drop NE

P(10 | G) 0.29 0.05 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...P(9 | G) 0.59 0.69 0.13 0.05 ... ... ... ... ... 0.01 ...P(8 | G) ... 0.20 0.56 0.08 0.07 ... ... ... ... 0.05 ...P(7 | G) ... ... 0.08 0.27 0.07 0.13 ... ... ... 0.05 ...P(6 | G) ... ... ... 0.11 0.51 0.22 0.18 ... ... 0.04 ...P(5 | G) ... ... ... ... 0.21 0.41 0.36 ... ... 0.01 ...P(4 | G) ... ... ... ... ... ... 0.27 0.33 ... 0.01 0.10P(3 | G) ... ... ... ... ... ... 0.09 ... ... ... ...P(2 | G) ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 0.67 ... ... ...P(1 | G) ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...P(Drop | G) 0.12 0.05 0.24 0.49 0.14 0.25 0.09 ... ... 0.84 ...P(NE | NE) ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 0.90No. obs 17.0 95.0 102 92.0 57.0 32.0 11.0 3.00 ... 153 10.0P(G) 0.03 0.17 0.18 0.16 0.10 0.06 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.27 0.02


Grade (G)9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Drop NE

P(10 | G) 0.06 0.01 0.02 ... ... ... ... ... ... 0.01 ...P(9 | G) ... 0.08 0.03 0.03 ... ... ... ... ... 0.04 ...P(8 | G) ... -.06 -.02 0.06 0.03 ... ... ... ... -.01 ...P(7 | G) ... ... 0.06 0.20 0.00 -.07 ... ... ... 0.15 ...P(6 | G) ... ... ... 0.00 0.09 -.02 0.07 ... ... -.03 ...P(5 | G) ... ... ... ... -.09 0.01 -.16 0.20 ... 0.02 ...P(4 | G) ... ... ... ... ... 0.17 0.13 -.13 ... -.01 0.01P(3 | G) ... ... ... ... ... ... -.04 0.20 ... 0.00 0.04P(2 | G) ... ... ... ... ... ... ... -.27 ... ... ...P(1 | G) ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...P(Drop | G) -.06 -.03 -.09 -.29 -.02 -.08 0.01 ... ... -.17 ...P(NE | NE) ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... -.04No. obs 51.0 241 315 260 141 68.0 31.0 8.00 ... 381 38.0p-value 0.73 0.33 0.08 0.00 0.62 0.14 0.84 0.66 . 0.00 0.83

-- --

Table 4(i)Eligible Treatment Transition Matrix


10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Drop NEP(11 | G) ... 0.03 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...P(10 | G) 0.53 0.28 0.13 0.04 ... ... ... ... ... ... 0.03 ...P(9 | G) ... 0.24 0.68 0.22 0.08 ... ... ... ... ... 0.03 ...P(8 | G) ... ... 0.18 0.43 0.07 0.08 ... ... ... ... 0.02 ...P(7 | G) ... ... ... 0.13 0.40 0.08 0.25 ... ... ... 0.08 ...P(6 | G) ... ... ... ... 0.11 0.58 0.25 ... ... ... 0.01 ...P(5 | G) ... ... ... ... ... 0.15 0.06 0.33 ... ... 0.00 ...P(4 | G) ... ... ... ... ... ... 0.13 0.33 ... ... ... 0.03P(3 | G) ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 0.00 ...P(2 | G) ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...P(1 | G) ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...P(Drop | G) 0.47 0.46 0.02 0.17 0.34 0.12 0.31 0.33 ... ... 0.83 ...P(NE | NE) ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 0.97No. obs 15.0 109 130 113 83.0 26.0 16.0 6.00 ... ... 343 38.0P(G) 0.02 0.13 0.15 0.13 0.10 0.03 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.40 0.04


Grade (G)10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Drop NE

P(11 | G) 0.27 0.06 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...P(10 | G) 0.36 0.23 0.08 0.02 ... ... ... ... ... ... 0.02 ...P(9 | G) ... 0.25 0.71 0.18 0.09 ... ... ... ... ... 0.02 ...P(8 | G) ... ... 0.17 0.38 0.08 0.04 ... ... ... ... 0.02 ...P(7 | G) ... ... ... 0.06 0.25 0.12 ... ... ... ... 0.06 ...P(6 | G) ... ... ... ... 0.08 0.38 0.08 ... ... ... 0.02 ...P(5 | G) ... ... ... ... ... 0.08 0.23 ... ... ... ... ...P(4 | G) ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 0.05P(3 | G) ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 0.50 ... ... ... ...P(2 | G) ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...P(1 | G) ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 0.05P(Drop | G) 0.36 0.46 0.05 0.35 0.51 0.38 0.69 0.50 1.00 ... 0.85 ...P(NE | NE) ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 0.90No. obs 11.0 69.0 78.0 65.0 53.0 26.0 13.0 2.00 1.00 ... 204 20.0P(G) 0.02 0.13 0.15 0.12 0.10 0.05 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.38 0.04


Grade (G)10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Drop NE

P(11 | G) -.27 -.03 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...P(10 | G) 0.17 0.04 0.05 0.03 ... ... ... ... ... ... 0.00 ...P(9 | G) ... -.01 -.03 0.04 -.01 ... ... ... ... ... 0.01 ...P(8 | G) ... ... 0.01 0.05 -.00 0.04 ... ... ... ... 0.00 ...P(7 | G) ... ... ... 0.07 0.15 -.04 0.25 ... ... ... 0.02 ...P(6 | G) ... ... ... ... 0.03 0.19 0.17 ... ... ... -.01 ...P(5 | G) ... ... ... ... ... 0.08 -.17 0.33 ... ... 0.00 ...P(4 | G) ... ... ... ... ... ... 0.13 0.33 ... ... ... -.02P(3 | G) ... ... ... ... ... ... ... -.50 ... ... 0.00 ...P(2 | G) ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...P(1 | G) ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... -.05P(Drop | G) 0.10 -.01 -.04 -.19 -.17 -.27 -.38 -.17 -1.0 ... -.02 ...P(NE | NE) ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 0.07No. obs 26.0 178 208 178 136 52.0 29.0 8.00 1.00 ... 547 58.0p-value 0.10 0.73 0.32 0.05 0.29 0.20 0.05 0.22 1.00 . 0.75 0.33

Table 5P-values from Pearson Chi-Squared Tests of Equality of

Schooling Transition MatricesHypothesis Tested age 6 age 7 age 8 age 9 age 10 age 11 age 12 age 13 age 14

Eligible Treatment andEligible Control TransitionMatrices are Equal(i.e. Treatment has noimpact)

0.0007 0.0071 0.0051 0.3027 0.2541 0.0055 0.0105<0.0001 0.0671

For Girls, EligibleTreatment and EligibleControl TransitionMatrices are Equal(i.e. Treatment has noimpact for Girls)

0.3604 0.7606 0.0421 0.2022 0.4437 0.0803 0.1763 0.0877 0.1371

For Boys, EligibleTreatment and EligibleControl TransitionMatrices are Equal(i.e. Treatment has noimpact for Boys)

0.0004 0.0462 0.0972 0.3812 0.3040 0.0942 0.1793 0.0073 0.4285

Non-eligible Treatmentand Non-eligible ControlTransition Matrices areEqual(i.e. No spillover effects)

0.2833 0.3682 0.2069 0.3064 0.3008 0.6452 0.6576 0.5269 0.9515

Eligible Control Matrix forGirls Equal to and EligibleControl Matrix for Boys(i.e. No gender differencein educational progressionpatterns)

0.1842 0.1766 0.3455 0.7161 0.3643 0.2835 0.1949 0.1278 0.5170

-- --

Table 6Simulated Education Distribution at Age 14

for Treatment and Control ChildrenAfter Exposure to Treatment for 8 years, Age 6-14

grade treatment % control % treatment cdf control cdf0 0.01 0.05 0.01 0.051 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.052 0.06 0.10 0.07 0.163 0.23 0.47 0.30 0.624 0.59 1.74 0.89 2.365 1.98 4.97 2.87 7.336 11.2 26.2 14.1 33.57 17.8 15.0 31.9 48.58 26.1 23.4 58.0 71.99 37.6 25.8 95.5 97.710 4.47 2.28 100 100

_

-- --

Table A.1(a)Av erage Schooling Gap (= potential grade level - actual grade level)

by age and treatment status

Oct. 97 Oct. 98 Nov. 99 Change from97 to 99

age con trt diff con trt diff con trt diff con trt diff

6 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00( 0.00) ( 0.00) ( 0.00) ( 0.00)

7 0.20 0.18 -.02 0.25 0.21 -.04 0.27 0.24 -.03 0.07 0.06 -.02( 0.02) ( 0.02) ( 0.02) ( 0.02)

8 0.44 0.40 -.05 0.43 0.39 -.04 0.46 0.42 -.04 0.02 0.03 0.01( 0.02) ( 0.02) ( 0.02) ( 0.03)

9 0.66 0.62 -.03 0.61 0.54 -.07 0.59 0.59 0.00 -.07 -.03 0.04( 0.03) ( 0.03) ( 0.03) ( 0.05)

10 0.84 0.79 -.05 0.89 0.69 -.20 0.89 0.80 -.09 0.06 0.02 -.04( 0.04) ( 0.04) ( 0.04) ( 0.06)

11 0.99 1.00 0.01 0.93 0.89 -.05 1.03 0.89 -.14 0.04 -.11 -.15( 0.05) ( 0.05) ( 0.05) ( 0.07)

12 1.29 1.27 -.03 1.09 1.07 -.02 1.11 1.10 -.01 -.18 -.17 0.02( 0.06) ( 0.05) ( 0.06) ( 0.08)

13 1.70 1.57 -.13 1.46 1.38 -.07 1.46 1.36 -.11 -.23 -.21 0.02( 0.07) ( 0.07) ( 0.07) ( 0.09)

14 2.13 2.01 -.12 1.83 1.69 -.14 1.90 1.69 -.20 -.23 -.31 -.08( 0.08) ( 0.07) ( 0.08) ( 0.11)

15 2.62 2.62 0.00 2.31 2.27 -.04 2.54 2.23 -.31 -.08 -.39 -.31( 0.09) ( 0.09) ( 0.10) ( 0.13)

16 3.30 3.29 -.01 2.99 2.82 -.17 3.04 3.08 0.05 -.26 -.20 0.06( 0.11) ( 0.11) ( 0.11) ( 0.16)

-- --

Table A.1(b)Av erage Schooling Gap (= potential grade level - actual grade level)

for female children, by age and treatment status



6 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00( 0.00) ( 0.00) ( 0.00) ( 0.00)

7 0.18 0.19 0.00 0.22 0.21 -.01 0.27 0.25 -.02 0.09 0.06 -.02( 0.02) ( 0.02) ( 0.03) ( 0.04)

8 0.42 0.36 -.06 0.40 0.35 -.05 0.41 0.40 -.01 -.00 0.04 0.05( 0.03) ( 0.03) ( 0.04) ( 0.05)

9 0.58 0.59 0.01 0.58 0.52 -.06 0.60 0.54 -.06 0.02 -.04 -.06( 0.04) ( 0.05) ( 0.05) ( 0.07)

10 0.79 0.73 -.06 0.81 0.66 -.15 0.81 0.75 -.06 0.02 0.02 0.00( 0.06) ( 0.06) ( 0.06) ( 0.08)

11 0.94 0.93 -.01 0.82 0.83 0.01 0.94 0.78 -.16 -.00 -.15 -.15( 0.06) ( 0.07) ( 0.07) ( 0.10)

12 1.13 1.17 0.04 1.05 0.97 -.08 0.96 1.07 0.11 -.17 -.09 0.08( 0.08) ( 0.07) ( 0.07) ( 0.11)

13 1.61 1.54 -.08 1.40 1.37 -.04 1.37 1.32 -.06 -.24 -.22 0.02( 0.09) ( 0.09) ( 0.09) ( 0.13)

14 2.09 1.94 -.14 1.75 1.74 -.01 1.83 1.73 -.10 -.26 -.21 0.05( 0.11) ( 0.10) ( 0.11) ( 0.16)

15 2.47 2.60 0.13 2.35 2.27 -.09 2.33 2.17 -.16 -.14 -.43 -.28( 0.12) ( 0.13) ( 0.13) ( 0.18)

16 3.22 3.30 0.08 2.80 2.75 -.05 2.99 3.11 0.12 -.23 -.19 0.04( 0.16) ( 0.15) ( 0.16) ( 0.22)

-- --

Table A.1(c)Av erage Schooling Gap (= potential grade level - actual grade level)

for male children, by age and treatment status



6 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00( 0.00) ( 0.00) ( 0.00) ( 0.00)

7 0.21 0.18 -.03 0.29 0.22 -.07 0.28 0.23 -.04 0.06 0.05 -.01( 0.02) ( 0.03) ( 0.03) ( 0.03)

8 0.47 0.43 -.04 0.47 0.42 -.04 0.50 0.44 -.06 0.03 0.01 -.02( 0.03) ( 0.03) ( 0.04) ( 0.05)

9 0.74 0.66 -.08 0.65 0.56 -.08 0.57 0.63 0.06 -.17 -.03 0.14( 0.05) ( 0.05) ( 0.05) ( 0.07)

10 0.88 0.84 -.04 0.97 0.72 -.25 0.97 0.85 -.12 0.10 0.02 -.08( 0.05) ( 0.06) ( 0.06) ( 0.08)

11 1.05 1.06 0.02 1.05 0.94 -.11 1.12 1.00 -.13 0.08 -.06 -.14( 0.07) ( 0.07) ( 0.07) ( 0.10)

12 1.44 1.36 -.08 1.13 1.17 0.04 1.26 1.13 -.13 -.18 -.23 -.05( 0.08) ( 0.08) ( 0.08) ( 0.12)

13 1.78 1.60 -.18 1.51 1.40 -.11 1.56 1.40 -.16 -.22 -.20 0.02( 0.09) ( 0.09) ( 0.10) ( 0.14)

14 2.16 2.06 -.10 1.91 1.64 -.27 1.96 1.66 -.30 -.21 -.40 -.19( 0.11) ( 0.10) ( 0.11) ( 0.15)

15 2.75 2.63 -.12 2.26 2.26 -.00 2.73 2.28 -.46 -.02 -.36 -.34( 0.12) ( 0.12) ( 0.14) ( 0.19)

16 3.38 3.28 -.10 3.18 2.88 -.30 3.07 3.06 -.01 -.31 -.22 0.09( 0.17) ( 0.15) ( 0.15) ( 0.23)

--

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Tabl

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-.02

...P

(NE

| N

E)

...

...-.

03N

o. o

bs12

9 49

987

.0p-

valu

e0.

44

0.05

0.57

--

--

-2

-

Tabl

e A

.2(b

)E

ligib

le C

ontr

ol T

rans

ition

Mat

rix fo

r G

irls

Age

7 -

> A

ge 8

Gra

de (

G)

32

1D

rop

NE

P(4

| G

)0.

15

0.12

0.05

1.

000.

04P

(3 |

G)

0.85

0.

660.

22

...0.

17P

(2 |

G)

...

0.22

0.58

...

0.29

P(1

| G

)...

...

0.12

...

0.21

P(D

rop

| G)

...

0.01

0.03

...

...P

(NE

| N

E)

...

...

......

0.

29N

o. o

bs34

.0

212

74.0

1.

0024

.0P

(G)

0.10

0.

610.

21

0.00

0.07

Elig

ible

Con

trol

Tra

nsiti

on M

atrix

for

Boy

sA

ge 7

->

Age

8G

rade

(G

)3

21

Dro

pN

EP

(4 |

G)

0.19

0.

090.

04

...0.

14P

(3 |

G)

0.81

0.

530.

22

...0.

21P

(2 |

G)

...

0.37

0.57

...

0.21

P(1

| G

)...

...

0.15

...

0.10

P(D

rop

| G)

...

0.01

0.01

...

...P

(NE

| N

E)

...

...

......

0.

34N

o. o

bs36

.0

255

91.0

...

29.0

P(G

)0.

09

0.62

0.22

0.

000.

07

Girl

-Boy

Diff

eren

ces

Age

7 -

> A

ge 8

Gra

de (

G)

32

1D

rop

NE

P(4

| G

)-.

05

0.03

0.

011.

00

-.10

P(3

| G

)0.

05

0.12

-.00

...

-.04

P(2

| G

)...

-.

160.

01

...0.

08P

(1 |

G)

...

...-.

03

...0.

10P

(Dro

p | G

)...

0.

000.

02

......

P(N

E |

NE

)...

...

...

...-.

05N

o. o

bs70

.0

467

165

1.00

53.0

p-va

lue

0.60

0.

00

0.91

1.00

0.

58

--

--

-3

-

Tabl

e A

.2(c

)E

ligib

le C

ontr

ol T

rans

ition

Mat

rix fo

r G

irls

Age

8 -

> A

ge 9

Gra

de (

G)

43

21

Dro

pN

EP

(5 |

G)

0.06

0.

08

0.03

...

...

...P

(4 |

G)

0.94

0.

63

0.17

0.32

0.

670.

11P

(3 |

G)

...

0.28

0.63

0.

12...

0.

33P

(2 |

G)

...

...0.

15

0.36

...

...P

(1 |

G)

...

......

0.

16...

0.

17P

(Dro

p | G

)...

0.

010.

02

0.04

0.33

...

P(N

E |

NE

)...

...

...

......

0.

39N

o. o

bs34

.0

175

119

25.0

3.00

18

.0P

(G)

0.09

0.

47

0.32

0.07

0.

05.

Elig

ible

Con

trol

Tra

nsiti

on M

atrix

for

Boy

sA

ge 8

->

Age

9G

rade

(G

)4

3 2

1D

rop

NE

P(5

| G

)0.

20

0.06

0.

02...

...

...

P(4

| G

)0.

80

0.61

0.

150.

24

0.33

...P

(3 |

G)

...

0.33

0.57

0.

240.

67

0.29

P(2

| G

)...

...

0.25

0.

38...

0.

06P

(1 |

G)

...

......

0.

14...

0.

06P

(Dro

p | G

)...

...

0.01

...

...

...P

(NE

| N

E)

...

......

...

...

0.59

No.

obs

30.0

15

313

8 21

.03.

00

17.0

P(G

)0.

08

0.42

0.

380.

06

0.05

.

Girl

-Boy

Diff

eren

ces

Age

8 -

> A

ge 9

Gra

de (

G)

43

21

Dro

pN

EP

(5 |

G)

-.14

0.

02

0.01

...

...

...P

(4 |

G)

0.14

0.

03

0.02

0.08

0.

330.

11P

(3 |

G)

...

-.05

0.07

-.

12-.

67

0.04

P(2

| G

)...

...

-.10

-.

02...

-.

06P

(1 |

G)

...

......

0.

02...

0.

11P

(Dro

p | G

)...

0.

010.

01

0.04

0.33

...

P(N

E |

NE

)...

...

...

......

-.

20N

o. o

bs64

.0

328

257

46.0

6.00

35

.0p-

valu

e0.

09

0.52

0.

330.

72

0.19

0.33

--

--

-4

-

Tabl

e A

.2(d

)E

ligib

le C

ontr

ol T

rans

ition

Mat

rix fo

r G

irls

Age

9 -

> A

ge 1

0G

rade

(G

)5

4 3

21

Dro

p N

EP

(6 |

G)

0.18

0.

07

0.01

...

......

...

P(5

| G

)0.

82

0.65

0.

180.

09

...0.

20

...P

(4 |

G)

...

0.27

0.61

0.

120.

25

0.60

0.33

P(3

| G

)...

...

0.17

0.

50...

...

0.08

P(2

| G

)...

...

...

0.26

0.50

...

0.25

P(1

| G

)...

...

...

......

...

...P

(Dro

p | G

)...

0.

010.

02

0.03

0.25

0.

20...

P(N

E |

NE

)...

...

...

......

...

0.33

No.

obs

28.0

13

912

1 34

.04.

00

5.00

12

.0P

(G)

0.08

0.

41

0.35

0.10

0.

010.

01

0.03

Elig

ible

Con

trol

Tra

nsiti

on M

atrix

for

Boy

sA

ge 9

->

Age

10

Gra

de (

G)

54

32

1D

rop

NE

P(6

| G

)0.

15

0.06

0.

02...

...

...

...P

(5 |

G)

0.85

0.

61

0.16

0.10

...

0.33

...

P(4

| G

)...

0.

330.

56

0.21

0.

080.

33

...P

(3 |

G)

...

...0.

25

0.52

0.

230.

33

0.17

P(2

| G

)...

...

...

0.16

0.46

...

0.17

P(1

| G

)...

...

...

...0.

15

...0.

17P

(Dro

p | G

)...

...

0.01

0.

02

0.08

...

...P

(NE

| N

E)

...

......

...

...

...0.

50N

o. o

bs20

.0

127

102

58.0

13.0

3.

006.

00P

(G)

0.06

0.

39

0.31

0.18

0.

040.

01

0.02

Girl

-Boy

Diff

eren

ces

Age

9 -

> A

ge 1

0G

rade

(G

)5

4 3

21

Dro

p N

EP

(6 |

G)

0.03

0.

02-.

01

......

...

...

P(5

| G

)-.

03

0.04

0.

02-.

02

...-.

13

...P

(4 |

G)

...

-.06

0.05

-.

090.

17

0.27

0.33

P(3

| G

)...

...

-.08

-.

02

-.23

-.33

-.

08P

(2 |

G)

...

......

0.

110.

04

...0.

08P

(1 |

G)

...

......

...

-.15

...

-.17

P(D

rop

| G)

...

0.01

0.01

0.

01

0.17

0.20

...

P(N

E |

NE

)...

...

...

......

...

-.17

No.

obs

48.0

26

622

3 92

.017

.0

8.00

18.0

p-va

lue

0.79

0.

51

0.49

0.64

0.

540.

45

0.32

--

--

-5

-

Tabl

e A

.2(e

)E

ligib

le C

ontr

ol T

rans

ition

Mat

rix fo

r G

irls

Age

10

-> A

ge 1

1G

rade

(G

)6

5 4

32

1D

rop

NE

P(7

| G

)0.

23

0.11

0.

01...

...

...

0.14

...

P(6

| G

)0.

77

0.71

0.

190.

07

......

0.

14

...P

(5 |

G)

...

0.16

0.63

0.

26

0.09

...

0.43

...

P(4

| G

)...

...

0.16

0.

48

0.05

1.00

0.

14...

P(3

| G

)...

...

...

0.19

0.64

...

...

0.17

P(2

| G

)...

...

...

...0.

09

......

0.

08P

(1 |

G)

...

......

...

...

......

...

P(D

rop

| G)

...

0.02

0.01

...

0.14

...

0.14

...

P(N

E |

NE

)...

...

...

......

...

...

0.75

No.

obs

26.0

14

510

5 42

.022

.0

1.00

7.00

12

.0P

(G)

0.07

0.

40

0.29

0.12

0.

060.

00

0.02

0.03

Elig

ible

Con

trol

Tra

nsiti

on M

atrix

for

Boy

sA

ge 1

0 ->

Age

11

Gra

de (

G)

65

43

21

Dro

pN

EP

(7 |

G)

0.42

0.

09

0.02

...

......

...

...P

(6 |

G)

0.50

0.

65

0.12

0.08

...

...

0.20

...P

(5 |

G)

...

0.23

0.62

0.

13

0.08

...

0.30

...P

(4 |

G)

...

...0.

23

0.50

0.

160.

50

0.10

0.

09P

(3 |

G)

...

......

0.

200.

40

...0.

20

0.18

P(2

| G

)...

...

...

...0.

28

0.50

...

0.09

P(1

| G

)...

...

...

......

...

...

...P

(Dro

p | G

)0.

08

0.03

0.

010.

08

0.08

...

0.20

...P

(NE

| N

E)

...

......

...

...

......

0.

64N

o. o

bs24

.0

135

125

60.0

25.0

2.

0010

.0

11.0

P(G

)0.

06

0.34

0.

320.

15

0.06

0.01

0.

03

0.03

Girl

-Boy

Diff

eren

ces

Age

10

-> A

ge 1

1G

rade

(G

)6

5 4

32

1D

rop

NE

P(7

| G

)-.

19

0.02

-.01

...

...

...0.

14

...P

(6 |

G)

0.27

0.

06

0.07

-.01

...

...

-.06

...P

(5 |

G)

...

-.07

0.01

0.

130.

01

...0.

13

...P

(4 |

G)

...

...-.

07

-.02

-.11

0.

500.

04

-.09

P(3

| G

)...

...

...

-.01

0.24

...

-.20

-.

02P

(2 |

G)

...

......

...

-.19

-.

50...

-.

01P

(1 |

G)

...

......

...

...

......

...

P(D

rop

| G)

-.08

-.

010.

00

-.08

0.06

...

-.06

...

P(N

E |

NE

)...

...

...

......

...

...

0.11

No.

obs

50.0

28

023

0 10

247

.0

3.00

17.0

23

.0p-

valu

e0.

09

0.44

0.

410.

22

0.26

0.39

0.

66

0.75

--

--

-6

-

Tabl

e A

.2(f

)E

ligib

le C

ontr

ol T

rans

ition

Mat

rix fo

r G

irls

Age

11

-> A

ge 1

2G

rade

(G

)7

6 5

43

21

Dro

p N

EP

(8 |

G)

0.15

0.

05...

...

...

......

...

...P

(7 |

G)

0.69

0.

47

0.18

0.07

...

...

...0.

20

...P

(6 |

G)

...

0.18

0.60

0.

20

0.13

...

......

...

P(5

| G

)...

...

0.18

0.

51

0.17

...

......

...

P(4

| G

)...

...

...

0.15

0.54

0.

50...

0.

10...

P(3

| G

)...

...

...

...0.

13

0.25

...

......

P(2

| G

)...

...

...

......

...

1.00

...

...P

(1 |

G)

...

......

...

...

......

...

...P

(Dro

p | G

)0.

15

0.30

0.

030.

07

0.04

0.25

...

0.70

...

P(N

E |

NE

)...

...

...

......

...

...

...1.

00N

o. o

bs13

.0

134

115

55.0

24.0

4.

001.

00

10.0

9.00

P(G

)0.

04

0.37

0.

320.

15

0.07

0.01

0.

000.

03

0.02

Elig

ible

Con

trol

Tra

nsiti

on M

atrix

for

Boy

sA

ge 1

1 ->

Age

12

Gra

de (

G)

76

54

32

1D

rop

NE

P(8

| G

)0.

19

0.03

0.

01...

...

...

......

...

P(7

| G

)0.

56

0.63

0.

110.

07

......

...

0.08

...

P(6

| G

)...

0.

200.

66

0.16

0.

05...

...

0.25

...

P(5

| G

)...

...

0.19

0.

51

0.23

...

...0.

17

...P

(4 |

G)

...

......

0.

200.

45

0.20

0.

50...

...

P(3

| G

)...

...

...

...0.

23

0.40

0.

50...

0.

33P

(2 |

G)

...

......

...

...

0.20

...

......

P(1

| G

)...

...

...

......

...

...

......

P(D

rop

| G)

0.25

0.

15

0.03

0.06

0.

050.

20

...0.

50

...P

(NE

| N

E)

...

......

...

...

......

...

0.67

No.

obs

16.0

11

210

1 69

.022

.0

5.00

2.00

12

.06.

00P

(G)

0.05

0.

32

0.29

0.20

0.

060.

01

0.01

0.03

0.

02

Girl

-Boy

Diff

eren

ces

Age

11

-> A

ge 1

2G

rade

(G

)7

6 5

43

21

Dro

pN

EP

(8 |

G)

-.03

0.

03-.

01

......

...

...

......

P(7

| G

)0.

13

-.15

0.07

0.

00...

...

...

0.12

...P

(6 |

G)

...

-.02

-.06

0.

040.

08

......

-.

25...

P(5

| G

)...

...

-.01

0.

00-.

06

......

-.

17...

P(4

| G

)...

...

...

-.06

0.09

0.

30-.

50

0.10

...P

(3 |

G)

...

......

...

-.10

-.

15

-.50

...

-.33

P(2

| G

)...

...

...

......

-.

201.

00

......

P(1

| G

)...

...

...

......

...

...

......

P(D

rop

| G)

-.10

0.

15

0.01

0.01

-.

000.

05

...0.

20

...P

(NE

| N

E)

...

......

...

...

......

...

0.33

No.

obs

29.0

24

621

6 12

446

.0

9.00

3.00

22

.015

.0p-

valu

e0.

75

0.02

0.

480.

92

0.75

0.67

0.

220.

18

0.06

--

--

Tabl

e A

.2(g

)E

ligib

le C

ontr

ol T

rans

ition

Mat

rix fo

r G

irls

Age

12

-> A

ge 1

3G

rade

(G

)8

76

54

32

1D

rop

NE

P(9

| G

)0.

41

0.02

...

...

......

...

...

...

...P

(8 |

G)

0.59

0.

61

0.07

0.

04...

...

...

...0.

05

...P

(7 |

G)

...

0.18

0.49

0.

17

0.12

...

...

...0.

10

...P

(6 |

G)

...

...0.

14

0.50

0.

12...

...

...

...

...P

(5 |

G)

...

...

...0.

15

0.46

...

...

......

...

P(4

| G

)...

...

...

...

0.23

0.

38

0.25

...

0.02

...P

(3 |

G)

...

...

...

...

...0.

25

......

0.

020.

10P

(2 |

G)

...

...

...

...

......

0.

50...

...

...P

(1 |

G)

...

...

...

...

......

...

...

...

...P

(Dro

p | G

)...

0.

200.

30

0.15

0.

080.

38

0.25

...

0.80

...P

(NE

| N

E)

...

...

...

...

......

...

...

...

0.90

No.

obs

17.0

66

.0

94.0

54

.0

26.0

8.

004.

00

...41

.0

10.0

P(G

)0.

05

0.21

0.

29

0.17

0.

080.

03

0.01

0.

000.

13

0.03

Elig

ible

Con

trol

Tra

nsiti

on M

atrix

for

Boy

sA

ge 1

2 ->

Age

13

Gra

de (

G)

87

65

43

21

Dro

p N

EP

(9 |

G)

0.12

0.

10...

...

...

...

...

......

...

P(8

| G

)0.

88

0.68

0.

14

0.09

...

......

...

...

...P

(7 |

G)

...

0.14

0.44

0.

12

0.11

...

......

0.

14...

P(6

| G

)...

...

0.20

0.

49

0.09

0.

06...

...

0.04

...

P(5

| G

)...

...

...

0.21

0.

34

0.22

...

...0.

04

...P

(4 |

G)

...

...

...

...0.

40

0.33

...

...0.

04

0.20

P(3

| G

)...

...

...

...

...

0.17

0.

50...

0.

07...

P(2

| G

)...

...

...

...

...

...

0.17

...

...

0.10

P(1

| G

)...

...

...

...

...

...

...

......

0.

10P

(Dro

p | G

)...

0.

080.

23

0.09

0.

06

0.22

0.33

1.

000.

68

...P

(NE

| N

E)

...

...

...

...

...

......

...

...

0.60

No.

obs

17.0

73

.0

96.0

67

.0

35.0

18

.0

6.00

1.00

28

.010

.0P

(G)

0.05

0.

21

0.27

0.

19

0.10

0.

050.

02

0.00

0.08

0.

03

Girl

-Boy

Diff

eren

ces

Age

12

-> A

ge 1

3G

rade

(G

)8

7 6

54

32

1D

rop

NE

P(9

| G

)0.

29

-.08

...

......

...

...

...

......

P(8

| G

)-.

29

-.08

-.

06-.

05

......

...

...

0.05

...P

(7 |

G)

...

0.04

0.05

0.

050.

00

......

...

-.05

...

P(6

| G

)...

...

-.06

0.

010.

03

-.06

...

...-.

04

...P

(5 |

G)

...

......

-.

060.

12

-.22

...

...-.

04

...P

(4 |

G)

...

......

...

-.17

0.

04

0.25

...

-.01

-.20

P(3

| G

)...

...

...

......

0.

08-.

50

...-.

05

0.10

P(2

| G

)...

...

...

......

...

0.33

...

...

-.10

P(1

| G

)...

...

...

......

...

...

...

...-.

10P

(Dro

p | G

)...

0.

110.

07

0.06

0.02

0.

15-.

08

-1.0

0.13

...

P(N

E |

NE

)...

...

...

......

...

...

...

...0.

30N

o. o

bs34

.0

139

190

121

61.0

26

.0

10.0

1.00

69

.020

.0p-

valu

e0.

05

0.05

0.

280.

52

0.72

0.

57

0.22

1.00

0.

44

0.23

--

--

-2

-

Tabl

e A

.2(h

)E

ligib

le C

ontr

ol T

rans

ition

Mat

rix fo

r G

irls

Age

13

-> A

ge 1

4G

rade

(G

)9

8 7

6 5

43

21

Dro

p N

EP

(10

| G)

0.67

0.

04...

...

...

...

...

...

......

...

P(9

| G

)0.

33

0.76

0.

13

0.02

...

......

...

...

0.02

...

P(8

| G

)...

0.

180.

51

0.02

0.

05...

...

...

...0.

02

...P

(7 |

G)

...

...0.

11

0.28

0.

05

0.08

...

...

...0.

03

...P

(6 |

G)

...

......

0.

160.

52

0.25

0.29

...

...

0.01

...P

(5 |

G)

...

......

...

0.19

0.

500.

29

......

...

...P

(4 |

G)

...

......

...

...

...

0.14

...

...

0.01

...P

(3 |

G)

...

......

...

...

...

0.14

...

...

......

P(2

| G

)...

...

...

...

...

......

...

...

...

...P

(1 |

G)

...

......

...

...

...

...

...

......

...

P(D

rop

| G)

...

0.02

0.25

0.

51

0.19

0.

170.

14

......

0.

90...

P(N

E |

NE

)...

...

...

...

...

......

...

...

...

1.00

No.

obs

6.00

51

.055

.0

43.0

21

.0

12.0

7.

00...

...

91.0

7.

00P

(G)

0.02

0.

17

0.19

0.

15

0.07

0.

040.

02

0.00

0.

000.

31

0.02

Elig

ible

Con

trol

Tra

nsiti

on M

atrix

for

Boy

sA

ge 1

3 ->

Age

14

Gra

de (

G)

98

76

54

32

1D

rop

NE

P(1

0 | G

)0.

09

0.07

...

...

...

......

...

...

...

...P

(9 |

G)

0.73

0.

61

0.13

0.

08...

...

...

...

......

...

P(8

| G

)...

0.

230.

62

0.12

0.

08...

...

...

...0.

08

...P

(7 |

G)

...

...0.

04

0.27

0.

08

0.15

...

...

...0.

06

...P

(6 |

G)

...

...

...0.

06

0.50

0.

20...

...

...

0.08

...

P(5

| G

)...

...

...

...

0.22

0.

350.

50

......

0.

02...

P(4

| G

)...

...

...

...

...

...

0.50

0.

33...

0.

020.

33P

(3 |

G)

...

...

...

...

...

......

...

...

...

...P

(2 |

G)

...

...

...

...

...

......

0.

67...

...

...P

(1 |

G)

...

...

...

...

...

......

...

...

...

...P

(Dro

p | G

)0.

18

0.09

0.

21

0.47

0.

11

0.30

...

...

...0.

74

...P

(NE

| N

E)

...

...

...

...

...

......

...

...

...

0.67

No.

obs

11.0

44

.0

47.0

49

.0

36.0

20

.0

4.00

3.00

...

62.0

3.

00P

(G)

0.04

0.

16

0.17

0.

18

0.13

0.

070.

01

0.01

0.

000.

22

0.01

Girl

-Boy

Diff

eren

ces

Age

13

-> A

ge 1

4G

rade

(G

)9

8 7

65

43

21

Dro

p N

EP

(10

| G)

0.58

-.

03...

...

...

...

......

...

...

...P

(9 |

G)

-.39

0.

15-.

00

-.06

...

...

......

...

0.02

...

P(8

| G

)...

-.

05

-.11

-.10

-.

04...

...

...

...-.

06

...P

(7 |

G)

...

...0.

07

0.01

-.04

-.

07...

...

...

-.03

...P

(6 |

G)

...

......

0.

100.

02

0.05

0.

29...

...

-.07

...

P(5

| G

)...

...

...

...-.

03

0.15

-.21

...

...

-.02

...P

(4 |

G)

...

......

...

...

...-.

36

-.33

...

-.01

-.33

P(3

| G

)...

...

...

......

...

0.14

...

...

......

P(2

| G

)...

...

...

......

...

...

-.67

...

...

...P

(1 |

G)

...

......

...

...

...

......

...

...

...P

(Dro

p | G

)-.

18

-.07

0.04

0.

04

0.08

-.13

0.

14...

...

0.16

...

P(N

E |

NE

)...

...

...

......

...

...

...

......

0.

33N

o. o

bs17

.0

95.0

102

92.0

57.0

32

.0

11.0

3.

00...

15

310

.00.

02

0.01

0.00

0.

27

0.02

p-va

lue

0.04

0.

290.

54

0.15

0.

89

0.73

0.

431.

00

.0.

06

0.11

--

--

-3

-

Tabl

e A

.2(i)

Elig

ible

Con

trol

Tra

nsiti

on M

atrix

for

Girl

sA

ge 1

4 ->

Age

15

Gra

de (

G)

10

98

76

54

32

1D

rop

NE

P(1

1 | G

)0.

33

0.09

...

...

......

...

...

...

...

...

...P

(10

| G)

0.50

0.

17

0.10

...

......

...

...

...

...

0.03

...

P(9

| G

)...

0.

310.

77

0.15

...

......

...

...

...

0.03

...

P(8

| G

)...

...

0.10

0.

31

0.10

...

...

...

...

......

...

P(7

| G

)...

...

...

0.04

0.25

0.

11...

...

...

...

0.08

...

P(6

| G

)...

...

...

...0.

05

0.33

...

...

...

...0.

02

...P

(5 |

G)

...

......

...

...

0.11

0.

20...

...

...

...

...P

(4 |

G)

...

......

...

...

...

...

...

...

......

...

P(3

| G

)...

...

...

...

......

...

0.50

...

...

......

P(2

| G

)...

...

...

...

......

...

...

...

...

...

...P

(1 |

G)

...

......

...

...

...

...

...

...

......

...

P(D

rop

| G)

0.17

0.

43

0.03

0.

50

0.60

0.44

0.

80

0.50

1.

00...

0.

84...

P(N

E |

NE

)...

...

...

...

......

...

...

...

...

...

1.00

No.

obs

6.00

35

.030

.0

26.0

20

.0

9.00

5.00

2.

00

1.00

...

116

7.00

P(G

)0.

02

0.14

0.

12

0.10

0.

080.

04

0.02

0.

01

0.00

0.

000.

46

0.03

Elig

ible

Con

trol

Tra

nsiti

on M

atrix

for

Boy

sA

ge 1

4 ->

Age

15

Gra

de (

G)

10

98

76

54

32

1D

rop

NE

P(1

1 | G

)0.

20

0.03

...

...

...

......

...

...

...

...

...P

(10

| G)

0.20

0.

29

0.06

0.

03...

...

...

...

...

...0.

01

...P

(9 |

G)

...

0.18

0.67

0.

21

0.15

...

......

...

...

...

...P

(8 |

G)

...

...0.

21

0.44

0.

06

0.06

...

...

...

...0.

05

...P

(7 |

G)

...

......

0.

080.

24

0.12

...

...

...

...0.

05

...P

(6 |

G)

...

......

...

0.09

0.

410.

13

......

...

0.02

...

P(5

| G

)...

...

...

...

...0.

06

0.25

...

...

......

...

P(4

| G

)...

...

...

...

...

......

...

...

...

...

0.08

P(3

| G

)...

...

...

...

...

......

...

...

...

...

...P

(2 |

G)

...

......

...

...

...

...

...

...

......

...

P(1

| G

)...

...

...

...

...

......

...

...

...

...

0.08

P(D

rop

| G)

0.60

0.

50

0.06

0.

26

0.45

0.

350.

63

......

...

0.88

...

P(N

E |

NE

)...

...

...

...

...

......

...

...

...

...

0.85

No.

obs

5.00

34

.048

.0

39.0

33

.0

17.0

8.

00...

...

...

88.0

13

.0P

(G)

0.02

0.

12

0.17

0.

14

0.12

0.

060.

03

0.00

0.

00

0.00

0.31

0.

05

Girl

-Boy

Diff

eren

ces

Age

14

-> A

ge 1

5G

rade

(G

)10

9

87

65

43

21

Dro

pN

EP

(11

| G)

0.13

0.

06...

...

...

...

...

...

......

...

...P

(10

| G)

0.30

-.

120.

04

-.03

...

...

......

...

...

0.02

...P

(9 |

G)

...

0.14

0.10

-.

05

-.15

...

......

...

...

0.03

...P

(8 |

G)

...

...-.

11

-.13

0.04

-.

06...

...

...

...-.

05

...P

(7 |

G)

...

......

-.

040.

01

-.01

...

......

...

0.03

...

P(6

| G

)...

...

...

...-.

04

-.08

-.

13...

...

...

-.01

...P

(5 |

G)

...

......

...

...

0.05

-.

05...

...

...

......

P(4

| G

)...

...

...

...

...

...

......

...

...

...-.

08P

(3 |

G)

...

......

...

...

...

...

0.50

...

...

......

P(2

| G

)...

...

...

...

...

...

......

...

...

......

P(1

| G

)...

...

...

...

...

...

......

...

...

...-.

08P

(Dro

p | G

)-.

43

-.07

-.

030.

24

0.15

0.

09

0.18

0.50

1.

00

...-.

04

...P

(NE

| N

E)

...

......

...

...

...

...

...

......

...

0.15

No.

obs

11.0

69

.0

78.0

65.0

53

.0

26.0

13

.0

2.00

1.00

...

204

20.0

p-va

lue

0.32

0.

31

0.53

0.34

0.

39

0.92

0.

671.

00

1.00

.0.

07

0.55

--

--

-4

-

--

--

Tabl

e A

.3(a

)E

ligib

le T

reat

men

t Tra

nsiti

on M

atrix

, Girl

s O

nly

Age

6 -

> A

ge 7

Gra

de (

G)

21

NE

P(3

| G

)0.

15

0.04

0.02

P(2

| G

)0.

85

0.67

0.36

P(1

| G

)...

0.

270.

44P

(Dro

p | G

)...

0.

02...

P(N

E |

NE

)...

...

0.18

No.

obs

106

394

55.0

P(G

)0.

19

0.71

0.10

Elig

ible

Con

trol

Tra

nsiti

on M

atrix

, Girl

s O

nly

Age

6 -

> A

ge 7

Gra

de (

G)

21

NE

P(3

| G

)0.

12

0.07

0.05

P(2

| G

)0.

85

0.62

0.45

P(1

| G

)...

0.

300.

36P

(Dro

p | G

)0.

03

0.01

...P

(NE

| N

E)

...

...0.

14N

o. o

bs73

.0

254

42.0

P(G

)0.

20

0.69

0.11

Tr e

atm

ent-

Con

trol

Diff

eren

ces,

Girl

s O

nly

Age

6 -

> A

ge 7

Gra

de (

G)

21

NE

P(3

| G

)0.

03

-.03

-.03

P(2

| G

)-.

00

0.05

-.09

P(1

| G

)...

-.

030.

08P

(Dro

p | G

)-.

03

0.01

...P

(NE

| N

E)

...

...0.

04N

o. o

bs17

9 64

897

.0p-

valu

e0.

21

0.27

0.63

--

--

-2

-

Tabl

e A

.3(b

)E

ligib

le T

reat

men

t Tra

nsiti

on M

atrix

, Girl

s O

nly

Age

7 -

> A

ge 8

Gra

de (

G)

32

1D

rop

NE

P(4

| G

)0.

25

0.10

0.

05...

0.

13P

(3 |

G)

0.74

0.

68

0.20

1.00

0.

22P

(2 |

G)

...

0.22

0.63

...

0.31

P(1

| G

)...

...

0.09

...

0.16

P(D

rop

| G)

0.01

0.

00

0.04

...

...P

(NE

| N

E)

...

......

...

0.19

No.

obs

73.0

39

712

8 2.

0032

.0P

(G)

0.12

0.

63

0.20

0.00

0.

05

Elig

ible

Con

trol

Tra

nsiti

on M

atrix

, Girl

s O

nly

Age

7 -

> A

ge 8

Gra

de (

G)

32

1D

rop

NE

P(4

| G

)0.

15

0.12

0.05

1.

000.

04P

(3 |

G)

0.85

0.

660.

22

...0.

17P

(2 |

G)

...

0.22

0.58

...

0.29

P(1

| G

)...

...

0.12

...

0.21

P(D

rop

| G)

...

0.01

0.03

...

...P

(NE

| N

E)

...

...

......

0.

29N

o. o

bs34

.0

212

74.0

1.

0024

.0P

(G)

0.10

0.

610.

21

0.00

0.07

Tr e

atm

ent-

Con

trol

Diff

eren

ces,

Girl

s O

nly

Age

7 -

> A

ge 8

Gra

de (

G)

32

1D

rop

NE

P(4

| G

)0.

10

-.02

-.

01-1

.0

0.08

P(3

| G

)-.

11

0.02

-.02

1.

000.

05P

(2 |

G)

...

0.00

0.05

...

0.02

P(1

| G

)...

...

-.04

...

-.05

P(D

rop

| G)

0.01

-.

010.

01

......

P(N

E |

NE

)...

...

...

...-.

10N

o. o

bs10

7 60

9 20

23.

00

56.0

p-va

lue

0.38

0.

61

0.89

0.08

0.

71

--

--

-3

-

Tabl

e A

.3(c

)E

ligib

le T

reat

men

t Tra

nsiti

on M

atrix

, Girl

s O

nly

Age

8 -

> A

ge 9

Gra

de (

G)

43

21

Dro

pN

EP

(5 |

G)

0.17

0.

06

0.02

...

...

...P

(4 |

G)

0.83

0.

74

0.27

0.21

0.

630.

10P

(3 |

G)

...

0.20

0.51

0.

290.

13

0.15

P(2

| G

)...

...

0.20

0.

460.

25

0.15

P(1

| G

)...

...

...

0.04

...

0.15

P(D

rop

| G)

...

0.01

...

......

...

P(N

E |

NE

)...

...

...

......

0.

45N

o. o

bs53

.0

304

183

24.0

8.00

20

.0P

(G)

0.09

0.

51

0.31

0.04

0.

03.

Elig

ible

Con

trol

Tra

nsiti

on M

atrix

, Girl

s O

nly

Age

8 -

> A

ge 9

Gra

de (

G)

43

21

Dro

pN

EP

(5 |

G)

0.06

0.

08

0.03

...

...

...P

(4 |

G)

0.94

0.

63

0.17

0.32

0.

670.

11P

(3 |

G)

...

0.28

0.63

0.

12...

0.

33P

(2 |

G)

...

...0.

15

0.36

...

...P

(1 |

G)

...

......

0.

16...

0.

17P

(Dro

p | G

)...

0.

010.

02

0.04

0.33

...

P(N

E |

NE

)...

...

...

......

0.

39N

o. o

bs34

.0

175

119

25.0

3.00

18

.0P

(G)

0.09

0.

47

0.32

0.07

0.

05.

Tr e

atm

ent-

Con

trol

Diff

eren

ces,

Girl

s O

nly

Age

8 -

> A

ge 9

Gra

de (

G)

43

21

Dro

pN

EP

(5 |

G)

0.11

-.

02

-.01

...

...

...P

(4 |

G)

-.11

0.

11

0.10

-.11

-.

04

-.01

P(3

| G

)...

-.

08-.

12

0.17

0.13

-.

18P

(2 |

G)

...

...0.

05

0.10

0.25

0.

15P

(1 |

G)

...

......

-.

12...

-.

02P

(Dro

p | G

)...

0.

00-.

02

-.04

-.33

...

P(N

E |

NE

)...

...

...

......

0.

06N

o. o

bs87

.0

479

302

49.0

11.0

38

.0p-

valu

e0.

13

0.11

0.

060.

26

0.28

0.

39

--

--

-4

-

Tabl

e A

.3(d

)E

ligib

le T

reat

men

t Tra

nsiti

on M

atrix

, Girl

s O

nly

Age

9 -

> A

ge 1

0G

rade

(G

)5

4 3

21

Dro

p N

EP

(6 |

G)

0.22

0.

05

0.01

...

...0.

14

...P

(5 |

G)

0.78

0.

75

0.18

0.14

...

0.43

...

P(4

| G

)...

0.

190.

58

0.26

0.44

0.

290.

19P

(3 |

G)

...

...0.

22

0.46

0.33

0.

140.

19P

(2 |

G)

...

......

0.

11...

...

0.19

P(1

| G

)...

...

...

...0.

22

...0.

13P

(Dro

p | G

)...

0.

010.

01

0.03

...

......

P(N

E |

NE

)...

...

...

......

...

0.31

No.

obs

32.0

27

918

7 70

.09.

00

7.00

16

.0P

(G)

0.05

0.

47

0.31

0.12

0.

020.

01

0.03

Elig

ible

Con

trol

Tra

nsiti

on M

atrix

, Girl

s O

nly

Age

9 -

> A

ge 1

0G

rade

(G

)5

4 3

21

Dro

p N

EP

(6 |

G)

0.18

0.

07

0.01

...

......

...

P(5

| G

)0.

82

0.65

0.

180.

09

...0.

20

...P

(4 |

G)

...

0.27

0.61

0.

120.

25

0.60

0.33

P(3

| G

)...

...

0.17

0.

50...

...

0.08

P(2

| G

)...

...

...

0.26

0.50

...

0.25

P(1

| G

)...

...

...

......

...

...P

(Dro

p | G

)...

0.

010.

02

0.03

0.25

0.

20...

P(N

E |

NE

)...

...

...

......

...

0.33

No.

obs

28.0

13

912

1 34

.04.

00

5.00

12

.0P

(G)

0.08

0.

41

0.35

0.10

0.

010.

01

0.03

Tr e

atm

ent-

Con

trol

Diff

eren

ces,

Girl

s O

nly

Age

9 -

> A

ge 1

0G

rade

(G

)5

4 3

21

Dro

pN

EP

(6 |

G)

0.04

-.

020.

00

......

0.

14...

P(5

| G

)-.

04

0.09

...

0.05

...

0.23

...P

(4 |

G)

...

-.07

-.03

0.

140.

19

-.31

-.

15P

(3 |

G)

...

...0.

05

-.04

0.33

0.

14

0.10

P(2

| G

)...

...

...

-.15

-.50

...

-.06

P(1

| G

)...

...

...

...0.

22

...0.

13P

(Dro

p | G

)...

0.

00-.

02

-.00

-.25

-.

20...

P(N

E |

NE

)...

...

...

......

...

-.02

No.

obs

60.0

41

830

8 10

413

.0

12.0

28

.0p-

valu

e0.

70

0.24

0.

510.

21

0.06

0.41

0.

60

--

--

-5

-

Tabl

e A

.3(e

)E

ligib

le T

reat

men

t Tra

nsiti

on M

atrix

, Girl

s O

nly

Age

10

-> A

ge 1

1G

rade

(G

)6

5 4

32

1D

rop

NE

P(7

| G

)0.

28

0.02

0.

02...

...

...

0.18

...P

(6 |

G)

0.67

0.

77

0.21

0.11

...

...

0.18

...P

(5 |

G)

...

0.19

0.61

0.

16

0.17

...

0.27

...P

(4 |

G)

...

...0.

15

0.49

0.

171.

00

......

P(3

| G

)...

...

...

0.22

0.50

...

0.09

0.

33P

(2 |

G)

...

......

...

0.17

...

0.09

0.

11P

(1 |

G)

...

......

...

...

......

...

P(D

rop

| G)

0.04

0.

02

0.02

0.03

...

...

0.18

...P

(NE

| N

E)

...

......

...

...

......

0.

56N

o. o

bs46

.0

212

185

74.0

18.0

2.

0011

.0

9.00

P(G

)0.

08

0.38

0.

330.

13

0.03

0.00

0.

020.

02

Elig

ible

Con

trol

Tra

nsiti

on M

atrix

, Girl

s O

nly

Age

10

-> A

ge 1

1G

rade

(G

)6

5 4

32

1D

rop

NE

P(7

| G

)0.

23

0.11

0.

01...

...

...

0.14

...

P(6

| G

)0.

77

0.71

0.

190.

07

......

0.

14

...P

(5 |

G)

...

0.16

0.63

0.

26

0.09

...

0.43

...

P(4

| G

)...

...

0.16

0.

48

0.05

1.00

0.

14...

P(3

| G

)...

...

...

0.19

0.64

...

...

0.17

P(2

| G

)...

...

...

...0.

09

......

0.

08P

(1 |

G)

...

......

...

...

......

...

P(D

rop

| G)

...

0.02

0.01

...

0.14

...

0.14

...

P(N

E |

NE

)...

...

...

......

...

...

0.75

No.

obs

26.0

14

510

5 42

.022

.0

1.00

7.00

12

.0P

(G)

0.07

0.

40

0.29

0.12

0.

060.

00

0.02

0.03

Tr e

atm

ent-

Con

trol

Diff

eren

ces,

Girl

s O

nly

Age

10

-> A

ge 1

1G

rade

(G

)6

5 4

32

1D

rop

NE

P(7

| G

)0.

05

-.09

0.01

...

...

...0.

04

...P

(6 |

G)

-.10

0.

06

0.02

0.04

...

...

0.04

...P

(5 |

G)

...

0.03

-.02

-.

100.

08

...-.

16

...P

(4 |

G)

...

...-.

01

0.01

0.12

...

-.14

...

P(3

| G

)...

...

...

0.03

-.14

...

0.09

0.

17P

(2 |

G)

...

......

...

0.08

...

0.09

0.

03P

(1 |

G)

...

......

...

...

......

...

P(D

rop

| G)

0.04

-.

000.

01

0.03

-.14

...

0.04

...

P(N

E |

NE

)...

...

...

......

...

...

-.19

No.

obs

72.0

35

729

0 11

640

.0

3.00

18.0

21

.0p-

valu

e0.

47

0.01

0.

950.

57

0.27

1.00

0.

77

0.63

--

--

-6

-

Tabl

e A

.3(f

)E

ligib

le T

reat

men

t Tra

nsiti

on M

atrix

, Girl

s O

nly

Age

11

-> A

ge 1

2G

rade

(G

)7

6 5

43

21

Dro

p N

EP

(8 |

G)

0.30

0.

03

0.02

...

......

...

0.09

...

P(7

| G

)0.

70

0.64

0.

200.

13

......

...

0.30

...

P(6

| G

)...

0.

160.

66

0.13

0.

15...

...

...

...P

(5 |

G)

...

...0.

11

0.45

0.

150.

14

...0.

09

...P

(4 |

G)

...

......

0.

240.

49

0.43

...

0.17

0.08

P(3

| G

)...

...

...

...0.

17

0.14

1.

00...

0.

08P

(2 |

G)

...

......

...

...

0.29

...

0.04

0.17

P(1

| G

)...

...

...

......

...

...

......

P(D

rop

| G)

...

0.16

0.02

0.

04

0.05

...

...0.

30

...P

(NE

| N

E)

...

......

...

...

......

...

0.67

No.

obs

20.0

20

817

9 89

.041

.0

7.00

1.00

23

.012

.0P

(G)

0.03

0.

36

0.31

0.15

0.

070.

01

0.00

0.04

0.

02

Elig

ible

Con

trol

Tra

nsiti

on M

atrix

, Girl

s O

nly

Age

11

-> A

ge 1

2G

rade

(G

)7

6 5

43

21

Dro

p N

EP

(8 |

G)

0.15

0.

05...

...

...

......

...

...P

(7 |

G)

0.69

0.

47

0.18

0.07

...

...

...0.

20

...P

(6 |

G)

...

0.18

0.60

0.

20

0.13

...

......

...

P(5

| G

)...

...

0.18

0.

51

0.17

...

......

...

P(4

| G

)...

...

...

0.15

0.54

0.

50...

0.

10...

P(3

| G

)...

...

...

...0.

13

0.25

...

......

P(2

| G

)...

...

...

......

...

1.00

...

...P

(1 |

G)

...

......

...

...

......

...

...P

(Dro

p | G

)0.

15

0.30

0.

030.

07

0.04

0.25

...

0.70

...

P(N

E |

NE

)...

...

...

......

...

...

...1.

00N

o. o

bs13

.0

134

115

55.0

24.0

4.

001.

00

10.0

9.00

P(G

)0.

04

0.37

0.

320.

15

0.07

0.01

0.

000.

03

0.02

Tr e

atm

ent-

Con

trol

Diff

eren

ces,

Girl

s O

nly

Age

11

-> A

ge 1

2G

rade

(G

)7

6 5

43

21

Dro

pN

EP

(8 |

G)

0.15

-.

020.

02

......

...

...

0.09

...P

(7 |

G)

0.01

0.

17

0.01

0.06

...

...

...0.

10

...P

(6 |

G)

...

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0.06

-.

070.

02

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...

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(5 |

G)

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07

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14...

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P(4

| G

)...

...

...

0.09

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07...

0.

070.

08P

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G)

...

......

...

0.05

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111.

00

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08P

(2 |

G)

...

......

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...

0.29

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(1 |

G)

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......

...

...

......

...

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(Dro

p | G

)-.

15

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02-.

03

0.01

-.25

...

-.40

...

P(N

E |

NE

)...

...

...

......

...

...

...-.

33N

o. o

bs33

.0

342

294

144

65.0

11

.02.

00

33.0

21.0

p-va

lue

0.15

0.

01

0.21

0.38

0.

98

0.45

0.16

0.

38

0.30

--

--

Tabl

e A

.3(g

)E

ligib

le T

reat

men

t Tra

nsiti

on M

atrix

, Girl

s O

nly

Age

12

-> A

ge 1

3G

rade

(G

)8

7 6

54

32

1D

rop

NE

P(9

| G

)0.

33

0.05

0.

01...

...

...

...

...0.

01

...P

(8 |

G)

0.67

0.

58

0.14

0.05

...

...

......

0.

06...

P(7

| G

)...

0.

270.

54

0.20

0.

10...

...

...

0.27

...P

(6 |

G)

...

...0.

08

0.55

0.

12

0.20

...

...0.

02

...P

(5 |

G)

...

......

0.

180.

56

0.20

...

...0.

01

...P

(4 |

G)

...

......

...

0.17

0.

30...

...

0.02

0.

07P

(3 |

G)

...

......

...

...

0.10

0.25

1.

000.

01

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(2 |

G)

...

......

...

...

......

...

...

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P(1

| G

)...

...

...

......

...

...

......

...

P(D

rop

| G)

...

0.10

0.23

0.

01

0.05

0.

200.

75

...0.

60

...P

(NE

| N

E)

...

......

...

...

......

...

...

0.87

No.

obs

15.0

10

515

8 76

.041

.0

10.0

4.

001.

00

94.0

15.0

P(G

)0.

03

0.20

0.

300.

15

0.08

0.

020.

01

0.00

0.18

0.

03

Elig

ible

Con

trol

Tra

nsiti

on M

atrix

, Girl

s O

nly

Age

12

-> A

ge 1

3G

rade

(G

)8

76

54

32

1D

rop

NE

P(9

| G

)0.

41

0.02

...

...

......

...

...

...

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(8 |

G)

0.59

0.

61

0.07

0.

04...

...

...

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05

...P

(7 |

G)

...

0.18

0.49

0.

17

0.12

...

...

...0.

10

...P

(6 |

G)

...

...0.

14

0.50

0.

12...

...

...

...

...P

(5 |

G)

...

...

...0.

15

0.46

...

...

......

...

P(4

| G

)...

...

...

...

0.23

0.

38

0.25

...

0.02

...P

(3 |

G)

...

...

...

...

...0.

25

......

0.

020.

10P

(2 |

G)

...

...

...

...

......

0.

50...

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(1 |

G)

...

...

...

...

......

...

...

...

...P

(Dro

p | G

)...

0.

200.

30

0.15

0.

080.

38

0.25

...

0.80

...P

(NE

| N

E)

...

...

...

...

......

...

...

...

0.90

No.

obs

17.0

66

.0

94.0

54

.0

26.0

8.

004.

00

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.0

10.0

P(G

)0.

05

0.21

0.

29

0.17

0.

080.

03

0.01

0.

000.

13

0.03

Tr e

atm

ent-

Con

trol

Diff

eren

ces,

Girl

s O

nly

Age

12

-> A

ge 1

3G

rade

(G

)8

7 6

54

32

1D

rop

NE

P(9

| G

)-.

08

0.03

0.

01...

...

...

......

0.

01...

P(8

| G

)0.

08

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0.06

0.

02...

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...

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02

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(7 |

G)

...

0.08

0.05

0.

03-.

02

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...

0.17

...

P(6

| G

)...

...

-.06

0.

050.

01

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...

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02

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(5 |

G)

...

......

0.

040.

10

0.20

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...0.

01

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(4 |

G)

...

......

...

-.06

-.

08-.

25

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00

0.07

P(3

| G

)...

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150.

25

1.00

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10P

(2 |

G)

...

......

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50

......

0.

07P

(1 |

G)

...

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...

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p | G

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180.

50

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(NE

| N

E)

...

......

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...

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No.

obs

32.0

17

125

2 13

067

.0

18.0

8.

001.

00

135

25.0

p-va

lue

0.65

0.

17

0.18

0.06

0.

93

0.36

0.17

1.

000.

34

0.42

--

--

-2

-

Tabl

e A

.3(h

)E

ligib

le T

reat

men

t Tra

nsiti

on M

atrix

, Girl

s O

nly

Age

13

-> A

ge 1

4G

rade

(G

)9

8 7

65

43

21

Dro

p N

EP

(10

| G)

0.40

0.

030.

01

......

...

...

...

...0.

01

...P

(9 |

G)

0.53

0.

810.

14

0.04

...

......

...

...

0.03

...

P(8

| G

)...

0.

140.

54

0.14

0.

02...

...

...

...0.

04

...P

(7 |

G)

...

...0.

12

0.47

0.

07...

...

...

...0.

21

...P

(6 |

G)

...

......

0.

130.

63

0.25

0.14

...

...

......

P(5

| G

)...

...

...

...0.

15

0.56

0.29

...

...

0.01

...P

(4 |

G)

...

......

...

...

0.13

0.43

...

...

...0.

09P

(3 |

G)

...

......

...

...

......

...

...

...

...P

(2 |

G)

...

......

...

...

......

...

...

...

...P

(1 |

G)

...

......

...

...

......

...

...

...

...P

(Dro

p | G

)0.

07

0.02

0.19

0.

22

0.12

0.

060.

14

......

0.

70...

P(N

E |

NE

)...

...

...

......

...

...

...

......

0.

91N

o. o

bs15

.0

63.0

109

72.0

41.0

16

.0

7.00

...

...13

2 11

.0P

(G)

0.03

0.

140.

23

0.15

0.

09

0.03

0.02

0.

00

0.00

0.28

0.

02

Elig

ible

Con

trol

Tra

nsiti

on M

atrix

, Girl

s O

nly

Age

13

-> A

ge 1

4G

rade

(G

)9

8 7

6 5

43

21

Dro

p N

EP

(10

| G)

0.67

0.

04...

...

...

...

...

...

......

...

P(9

| G

)0.

33

0.76

0.

13

0.02

...

......

...

...

0.02

...

P(8

| G

)...

0.

180.

51

0.02

0.

05...

...

...

...0.

02

...P

(7 |

G)

...

...0.

11

0.28

0.

05

0.08

...

...

...0.

03

...P

(6 |

G)

...

......

0.

160.

52

0.25

0.29

...

...

0.01

...P

(5 |

G)

...

......

...

0.19

0.

500.

29

......

...

...P

(4 |

G)

...

......

...

...

...

0.14

...

...

0.01

...P

(3 |

G)

...

......

...

...

...

0.14

...

...

......

P(2

| G

)...

...

...

...

...

......

...

...

...

...P

(1 |

G)

...

......

...

...

...

...

...

......

...

P(D

rop

| G)

...

0.02

0.25

0.

51

0.19

0.

170.

14

......

0.

90...

P(N

E |

NE

)...

...

...

...

...

......

...

...

...

1.00

No.

obs

6.00

51

.055

.0

43.0

21

.0

12.0

7.

00...

...

91.0

7.

00P

(G)

0.02

0.

17

0.19

0.

15

0.07

0.

040.

02

0.00

0.

000.

31

0.02

Tr e

atm

ent-

Con

trol

Diff

eren

ces,

Girl

s O

nly

Age

13

-> A

ge 1

4G

rade

(G

)9

8 7

65

43

21

Dro

pN

EP

(10

| G)

-.27

-.

010.

01

......

...

...

...

...0.

01

...P

(9 |

G)

0.20

0.

04

0.01

0.02

...

...

......

...

0.01

...

P(8

| G

)...

-.

030.

03

0.12

-.02

...

...

......

0.

02...

P(7

| G

)...

...

0.01

0.

190.

03

-.08

...

......

0.

18...

P(6

| G

)...

...

...

-.04

0.11

...

-.14

...

...

-.01

...P

(5 |

G)

...

......

...

-.04

0.

06...

...

...

0.01

...P

(4 |

G)

...

......

...

...

0.13

0.29

...

...

-.01

0.09

P(3

| G

)...

...

...

......

...

-.14

...

...

......

P(2

| G

)...

...

...

......

...

...

...

......

...

P(1

| G

)...

...

...

......

...

...

...

......

...

P(D

rop

| G)

0.07

-.

00

-.06

-.29

-.

07

-.10

...

......

-.

20...

P(N

E |

NE

)...

...

...

......

...

...

...

......

-.

09N

o. o

bs21

.0

114

164

115

62.0

28

.0

14.0

...

...

223

18.0

0.02

0.

00

0.00

0.29

0.

02p-

valu

e0.

50

0.95

0.

860.

01

0.87

0.

47

0.67

..

0.

01

0.41

--

--

-3

-

Tabl

e A

.3(i)

Elig

ible

Tre

atm

ent T

rans

ition

Mat

rix, G

irls

Onl

yA

ge 1

4 ->

Age

15

Gra

de (

G)

10

98

76

54

32

1D

rop

NE

P(1

1 | G

)...

0.

04...

...

...

...

...

...

...

......

...

P(1

0 | G

)0.

57

0.18

0.

12

0.05

...

......

...

...

...

0.02

...

P(9

| G

)...

0.

220.

64

0.26

0.

09...

...

...

...

...

0.02

...

P(8

| G

)...

...

0.20

0.

28

0.09

...

...

...

...

...0.

02

...P

(7 |

G)

...

......

0.

210.

41

0.25

0.

22...

...

...

0.07

...

P(6

| G

)...

...

...

...0.

13

0.50

0.

33...

...

...

...

...P

(5 |

G)

...

......

...

...

0.25

...

1.00

...

...

......

P(4

| G

)...

...

...

...

......

...

...

...

...

...

...P

(3 |

G)

...

......

...

...

...

...

...

...

......

...

P(2

| G

)...

...

...

...

......

...

...

...

...

...

...P

(1 |

G)

...

......

...

...

...

...

...

...

......

...

P(D

rop

| G)

0.43

0.

55

0.04

0.

21

0.28

...

0.44

...

...

...0.

86

...P

(NE

| N

E)

...

......

...

...

...

...

...

...

......

1.

00N

o. o

bs7.

00

49.0

50.0

43

.0

32.0

4.

009.

00

1.00

...

...17

7 23

.0P

(G)

0.02

0.

13

0.13

0.

11

0.08

0.01

0.

02

0.00

0.

00

0.00

0.46

0.

06

Elig

ible

Con

trol

Tra

nsiti

on M

atrix

, Girl

s O

nly

Age

14

-> A

ge 1

5G

rade

(G

)10

9

87

65

43

21

Dro

p N

EP

(11

| G)

0.33

0.

09...

...

...

...

...

...

...

......

...

P(1

0 | G

)0.

50

0.17

0.

10...

...

...

...

...

...

...0.

03

...P

(9 |

G)

...

0.31

0.77

0.

15...

...

...

...

...

...0.

03

...P

(8 |

G)

...

...0.

10

0.31

0.

10...

...

...

...

...

...

...P

(7 |

G)

...

......

0.

040.

25

0.11

...

...

...

...0.

08

...P

(6 |

G)

...

......

...

0.05

0.

33...

...

...

...

0.02

...

P(5

| G

)...

...

...

...

...0.

11

0.20

...

...

......

...

P(4

| G

)...

...

...

...

......

...

...

...

...

...

...P

(3 |

G)

...

......

...

...

...

...0.

50

......

...

...P

(2 |

G)

...

......

...

...

...

...

...

...

......

...

P(1

| G

)...

...

...

...

......

...

...

...

...

...

...P

(Dro

p | G

)0.

17

0.43

0.

03

0.50

0.

600.

44

0.80

0.

50

1.00

...

0.84

...P

(NE

| N

E)

...

......

...

...

...

...

...

...

......

1.

00N

o. o

bs6.

00

35.0

30.0

26

.0

20.0

9.

005.

00

2.00

1.

00...

11

67.

00P

(G)

0.02

0.

14

0.12

0.

10

0.08

0.04

0.

02

0.01

0.

00

0.00

0.46

0.

03

Tr e

atm

ent-

Con

trol

Diff

eren

ces,

Girl

s O

nly

Age

14

-> A

ge 1

5G

rade

(G

)10

9

87

65

43

21

Dro

pN

EP

(11

| G)

-.33

-.

04...

...

...

...

...

...

......

...

...P

(10

| G)

0.07

0.

01

0.02

0.05

...

...

......

...

...

-.01

...P

(9 |

G)

...

-.09

-.13

0.

10

0.09

...

......

...

...

-.01

...P

(8 |

G)

...

...0.

10

-.03

-.

01...

...

...

......

0.

02...

P(7

| G

)...

...

...

0.17

0.16

0.

14

0.22

...

......

-.

00...

P(6

| G

)...

...

...

...0.

08

0.17

0.

33...

...

...

-.02

...P

(5 |

G)

...

......

...

...

0.14

-.

201.

00

......

...

...P

(4 |

G)

...

......

...

...

...

...

...

......

...

...P

(3 |

G)

...

......

...

...

...

...

-.50

...

...

......

P(2

| G

)...

...

...

...

...

...

......

...

...

......

P(1

| G

)...

...

...

...

...

...

......

...

...

......

P(D

rop

| G)

0.26

0.

12

0.01

-.29

-.

32

-.44

-.

36-.

50

-1.0

...

0.03

...P

(NE

| N

E)

...

......

...

...

...

...

...

......

...

...N

o. o

bs13

.0

84.0

80

.069

.0

52.0

13

.0

14.0

3.

001.

00

...29

3 30

.0p-

valu

e0.

21

0.58

0.

640.

05

0.16

0.

44

0.15

0.22

1.

00.

0.32

1.

00

--

--

-4

-

--

--

Tabl

e A

.4(a

)E

ligib

le T

reat

men

t Tra

nsiti

on M

atrix

, Boy

s O

nly

Age

6 -

> A

ge 7

Gra

de (

G)

21

NE

P(3

| G

)0.

12

0.08

0.03

P(2

| G

)0.

88

0.69

0.43

P(1

| G

)...

0.

230.

30P

(Dro

p | G

)...

0.

00...

P(N

E |

NE

)...

...

0.23

No.

obs

115

430

60.0

P(G

)0.

19

0.71

0.10

Elig

ible

Con

trol

Tra

nsiti

on M

atrix

, Boy

s O

nly

Age

6 -

> A

ge 7

Gra

de (

G)

21

NE

P(3

| G

)0.

14

0.10

0.02

P(2

| G

)0.

86

0.51

0.33

P(1

| G

)...

0.

360.

47P

(Dro

p | G

)...

0.

02...

P(N

E |

NE

)...

...

0.18

No.

obs

56.0

24

545

.0P

(G)

0.16

0.

710.

13

Tr e

atm

ent-

Con

trol

Diff

eren

ces,

Boy

s O

nly

Age

6 -

> A

ge 7

Gra

de (

G)

21

NE

P(3

| G

)-.

02

-.02

0.01

P(2

| G

)0.

02

0.17

0.

10P

(1 |

G)

...

-.13

-.17

P(D

rop

| G)

...

-.02

...P

(NE

| N

E)

...

...0.

06N

o. o

bs17

1 67

5 10

5p-

valu

e0.

70

0.00

0.

38

--

--

-2

-

Tabl

e A

.4(b

)E

ligib

le T

reat

men

t Tra

nsiti

on M

atrix

, Boy

s O

nly

Age

7 -

> A

ge 8

Gra

de (

G)

32

1D

rop

NE

P(4

| G

)0.

33

0.11

0.

05...

0.

12P

(3 |

G)

0.67

0.

64

0.22

0.50

0.

18P

(2 |

G)

...

0.25

0.60

0.

500.

42P

(1 |

G)

...

...0.

11

...0.

18P

(Dro

p | G

)...

0.

010.

02

......

P(N

E |

NE

)...

...

...

...0.

09N

o. o

bs55

.0

378

124

8.00

33.0

P(G

)0.

09

0.63

0.

210.

01

0.06

Elig

ible

Con

trol

Tra

nsiti

on M

atrix

, Boy

s O

nly

Age

7 -

> A

ge 8

Gra

de (

G)

32

1D

rop

NE

P(4

| G

)0.

19

0.09

0.04

...

0.14

P(3

| G

)0.

81

0.53

0.22

...

0.21

P(2

| G

)...

0.

370.

57

...0.

21P

(1 |

G)

...

...0.

15

...0.

10P

(Dro

p | G

)...

0.

010.

01

......

P(N

E |

NE

)...

...

...

...

0.34

No.

obs

36.0

25

591

.0

...29

.0P

(G)

0.09

0.

620.

22

0.00

0.07

Tr e

atm

ent-

Con

trol

Diff

eren

ces,

Boy

s O

nly

Age

7 -

> A

ge 8

Gra

de (

G)

32

1D

rop

NE

P(4

| G

)0.

13

0.02

0.

00...

-.

02P

(3 |

G)

-.13

0.

10-.

00

0.50

-.03

P(2

| G

)...

-.

130.

03

0.50

0.22

P(1

| G

)...

...

-.04

...

0.08

P(D

rop

| G)

...

-.00

0.01

...

...P

(NE

| N

E)

...

......

...

-.25

No.

obs

91.0

63

321

5 8.

0062

.0p-

valu

e0.

17

0.01

0.

921.

00

0.10

--

--

-3

-

Tabl

e A

.4(c

)E

ligib

le T

reat

men

t Tra

nsiti

on M

atrix

, Boy

s O

nly

Age

8 -

> A

ge 9

Gra

de (

G)

43

21

Dro

pN

EP

(5 |

G)

0.21

0.

07

0.04

...

...

...P

(4 |

G)

0.79

0.

66

0.22

0.29

1.

000.

14P

(3 |

G)

...

0.27

0.56

0.

20...

0.

14P

(2 |

G)

...

...0.

18

0.46

...

0.27

P(1

| G

)...

...

...

0.05

...

0.18

P(D

rop

| G)

...

0.00

0.00

...

...

...P

(NE

| N

E)

...

......

...

...

0.27

No.

obs

57.0

31

425

1 41

.05.

00

22.0

P(G

)0.

08

0.46

0.

360.

06

0.03

.

Elig

ible

Con

trol

Tra

nsiti

on M

atrix

, Boy

s O

nly

Age

8 -

> A

ge 9

Gra

de (

G)

43

21

Dro

pN

EP

(5 |

G)

0.20

0.

06

0.02

...

...

...P

(4 |

G)

0.80

0.

61

0.15

0.24

0.

33...

P(3

| G

)...

0.

330.

57

0.24

0.67

0.

29P

(2 |

G)

...

...0.

25

0.38

...

0.06

P(1

| G

)...

...

...

0.14

...

0.06

P(D

rop

| G)

...

...0.

01

......

...

P(N

E |

NE

)...

...

...

......

0.

59N

o. o

bs30

.0

153

138

21.0

3.00

17

.0P

(G)

0.08

0.

42

0.38

0.06

0.

05.

Tr e

atm

ent-

Con

trol

Diff

eren

ces,

Boy

s O

nly

Age

8 -

> A

ge 9

Gra

de (

G)

43

21

Dro

pN

EP

(5 |

G)

0.01

0.

01

0.01

...

...

...P

(4 |

G)

-.01

0.

05

0.07

0.05

0.

670.

14P

(3 |

G)

...

-.07

-.00

-.

04-.

67

-.16

P(2

| G

)...

...

-.07

0.

08...

0.

21P

(1 |

G)

...

......

-.

09...

0.

12P

(Dro

p | G

)...

0.

00-.

00

......

...

P(N

E |

NE

)...

...

...

......

-.

32N

o. o

bs87

.0

467

389

62.0

8.00

39

.0p-

valu

e0.

91

0.46

0.

270.

57

0.04

0.05

--

--

-4

-

Tabl

e A

.4(d

)E

ligib

le T

reat

men

t Tra

nsiti

on M

atrix

, Boy

s O

nly

Age

9 -

> A

ge 1

0G

rade

(G

)5

4 3

21

Dro

pN

EP

(6 |

G)

0.30

0.

07

0.03

...

......

...

P(5

| G

)0.

70

0.69

0.

19

0.16

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0.58

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(4 |

G)

...

0.24

0.63

0.

220.

50

0.17

0.

36P

(3 |

G)

...

...0.

15

0.43

...

0.17

0.09

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| G

)...

...

...

0.16

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0.09

P(1

| G

)...

...

...

......

...

...P

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p | G

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0.

000.

01

0.03

...

0.08

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(NE

| N

E)

...

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...

...

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45N

o. o

bs40

.0

245

185

107

6.00

12

.011

.0P

(G)

0.07

0.

40

0.31

0.

180.

01

0.02

0.

02

Elig

ible

Con

trol

Tra

nsiti

on M

atrix

, Boy

s O

nly

Age

9 -

> A

ge 1

0G

rade

(G

)5

4 3

21

Dro

p N

EP

(6 |

G)

0.15

0.

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......

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P(5

| G

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85

0.61

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160.

10

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G)

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0.33

0.56

0.

21

0.08

0.33

...

P(3

| G

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...

0.25

0.

52

0.23

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0.

17P

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G)

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0.

160.

46

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17P

(1 |

G)

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......

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| G)

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01

0.02

0.

08...

...

P(N

E |

NE

)...

...

...

......

...

0.50

No.

obs

20.0

12

710

2 58

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.0

3.00

6.00

P(G

)0.

06

0.39

0.

310.

18

0.04

0.01

0.

02

Tr e

atm

ent-

Con

trol

Diff

eren

ces,

Boy

s O

nly

Age

9 -

> A

ge 1

0G

rade

(G

)5

4 3

21

Dro

pN

EP

(6 |

G)

0.15

0.

01

0.01

...

......

...

P(5

| G

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15

0.07

0.

030.

06

...0.

25

...P

(4 |

G)

...

-.09

0.07

0.

020.

42

-.17

0.36

P(3

| G

)...

...

-.11

-.

09-.

23

-.17

-.

08P

(2 |

G)

...

......

0.

000.

04

...-.

08P

(1 |

G)

...

......

...

-.15

...

-.17

P(D

rop

| G)

...

0.00

-.00

0.

01-.

08

0.08

...P

(NE

| N

E)

...

......

...

...

...-.

05N

o. o

bs60

.0

372

287

165

19.0

15

.0

17.0

p-va

lue

0.21

0.

31

0.22

0.79

0.

180.

75

0.35

--

--

-5

-

Tabl

e A

.4(e

)E

ligib

le T

reat

men

t Tra

nsiti

on M

atrix

, Boy

s O

nly

Age

10

-> A

ge 1

1G

rade

(G

)6

5 4

32

1D

rop

NE

P(7

| G

)0.

34

0.05

0.

01...

...

...

......

P(6

| G

)0.

66

0.73

0.

180.

18

......

0.

27...

P(5

| G

)...

0.

210.

64

0.19

0.

14...

0.

18...

P(4

| G

)...

...

0.17

0.

41

0.22

...

0.27

0.16

P(3

| G

)...

...

...

0.18

0.43

0.

500.

18

0.11

P(2

| G

)...

...

...

...0.

19

0.50

0.09

0.

21P

(1 |

G)

...

......

...

...

......

0.

05P

(Dro

p | G

)...

0.

010.

00

0.03

0.

03...

...

...P

(NE

| N

E)

...

......

...

...

......

0.

47N

o. o

bs44

.0

226

206

98.0

37.0

2.

0011

.0

19.0

P(G

)0.

07

0.35

0.

320.

15

0.06

0.00

0.

02

0.03

Elig

ible

Con

trol

Tra

nsiti

on M

atrix

, Boy

s O

nly

Age

10

-> A

ge 1

1G

rade

(G

)6

5 4

32

1D

rop

NE

P(7

| G

)0.

42

0.09

0.

02...

...

...

......

P(6

| G

)0.

50

0.65

0.

120.

08

......

0.

20...

P(5

| G

)...

0.

230.

62

0.13

0.

08...

0.

30...

P(4

| G

)...

...

0.23

0.

50

0.16

0.50

0.

10

0.09

P(3

| G

)...

...

...

0.20

0.40

...

0.20

0.

18P

(2 |

G)

...

......

...

0.28

0.

50...

0.

09P

(1 |

G)

...

......

...

...

......

...

P(D

rop

| G)

0.08

0.

03

0.01

0.08

0.

08...

0.

20...

P(N

E |

NE

)...

...

...

......

...

...

0.64

No.

obs

24.0

13

512

5 60

.025

.0

2.00

10.0

11

.0P

(G)

0.06

0.

34

0.32

0.15

0.

060.

01

0.03

0.

03

Tr e

atm

ent-

Con

trol

Diff

eren

ces,

Boy

s O

nly

Age

10

-> A

ge 1

1G

rade

(G

)6

5 4

32

1D

rop

NE

P(7

| G

)-.

08

-.04

-.

01...

...

...

......

P(6

| G

)0.

16

0.08

0.

060.

10

......

0.

07...

P(5

| G

)...

-.

020.

02

0.06

0.06

...

-.12

...

P(4

| G

)...

...

-.07

-.

090.

06

-.50

0.17

0.

07P

(3 |

G)

...

......

-.

020.

03

0.50

-.02

-.

08P

(2 |

G)

...

......

...

-.09

...

0.09

0.

12P

(1 |

G)

...

......

...

...

......

0.

05P

(Dro

p | G

)-.

08

-.02

-.

00-.

05

-.05

...

-.20

...P

(NE

| N

E)

...

......

...

...

......

-.

16N

o. o

bs68

.0

361

331

158

62.0

4.

0021

.0

30.0

p-va

lue

0.10

0.

16

0.30

0.19

0.

720.

37

0.50

0.

72

--

--

-6

-

Tabl

e A

.4(f

)E

ligib

le T

reat

men

t Tra

nsiti

on M

atrix

, Boy

s O

nly

Age

11

-> A

ge 1

2G

rade

(G

)7

6 5

43

21

Dro

pN

EP

(8 |

G)

0.20

0.

07

0.01

...

......

...

0.09

...

P(7

| G

)0.

73

0.68

0.

21

0.13

...

......

0.

22...

P(6

| G

)...

0.

140.

65

0.23

0.11

...

...

0.09

...P

(5 |

G)

...

...0.

12

0.50

0.19

0.

15...

...

...P

(4 |

G)

...

......

0.

130.

47

0.23

...

0.04

...P

(3 |

G)

...

......

...

0.19

0.

38...

...

...P

(2 |

G)

...

......

...

...

0.23

...

0.04

0.56

P(1

| G

)...

...

...

......

...

...

......

P(D

rop

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12

0.01

0.

020.

03

......

0.

52...

P(N

E |

NE

)...

...

...

......

...

...

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44N

o. o

bs30

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161

191

109

36.0

13

.0...

23

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00P

(G)

0.05

0.

28

0.33

0.

190.

06

0.02

0.00

0.

040.

02

Elig

ible

Con

trol

Tra

nsiti

on M

atrix

, Boy

s O

nly

Age

11

-> A

ge 1

2G

rade

(G

)7

6 5

43

21

Dro

p N

EP

(8 |

G)

0.19

0.

03

0.01

...

......

...

...

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(7 |

G)

0.56

0.

63

0.11

0.07

...

...

...0.

08

...P

(6 |

G)

...

0.20

0.66

0.

16

0.05

...

...0.

25

...P

(5 |

G)

...

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19

0.51

0.

23...

...

0.17

...

P(4

| G

)...

...

...

0.20

0.45

0.

20

0.50

...

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(3 |

G)

...

......

...

0.23

0.

40

0.50

...

0.33

P(2

| G

)...

...

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......

0.

20...

...

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(1 |

G)

...

......

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(Dro

p | G

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25

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0.

030.

06

0.05

0.20

...

0.50

...

P(N

E |

NE

)...

...

...

......

...

...

...0.

67N

o. o

bs16

.0

112

101

69.0

22.0

5.

002.

00

12.0

6.00

P(G

)0.

05

0.32

0.

290.

20

0.06

0.01

0.

010.

03

0.02

Tr e

atm

ent-

Con

trol

Diff

eren

ces,

Boy

s O

nly

Age

11

-> A

ge 1

2G

rade

(G

)7

6 5

43

21

Dro

pN

EP

(8 |

G)

0.01

0.

04-.

00

......

...

...

0.09

...P

(7 |

G)

0.17

0.

05

0.11

0.06

...

...

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13

...P

(6 |

G)

...

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0.

070.

07

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-.

16...

P(5

| G

)...

...

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-.

01-.

03

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-.17

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(4 |

G)

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......

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070.

02

0.03

-.50

0.

04...

P(3

| G

)...

...

...

...-.

03

-.02

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...

-.33

P(2

| G

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...

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03...

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56P

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...

......

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......

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...P

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p | G

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18

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-.

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04

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-.

20...

0.

02...

P(N

E |

NE

)...

...

...

......

...

...

...-.

22N

o. o

bs46

.0

273

292

178

58.0

18

.0

2.00

35.0

15

.0p-

valu

e0.

21

0.21

0.

090.

22

0.92

0.

491.

00

0.22

0.

04

--

--

Tabl

e A

.4(g

)E

ligib

le T

reat

men

t Tra

nsiti

on M

atrix

, Boy

s O

nly

Age

12

-> A

ge 1

3G

rade

(G

)8

7 6

54

32

1D

rop

NE

P(9

| G

)0.

19

0.07

0.

01...

...

...

......

...

...P

(8 |

G)

0.81

0.

65

0.10

0.

07...

...

...

...

0.13

...P

(7 |

G)

...

0.22

0.61

0.

140.

11

......

...

0.21

...

P(6

| G

)...

...

0.14

0.

600.

22

0.13

...

...0.

07

...P

(5 |

G)

...

......

0.

150.

47

0.13

...

...0.

02

...P

(4 |

G)

...

......

...

0.18

0.

50

0.27

...

0.02

0.25

P(3

| G

)...

...

...

......

0.

210.

45

......

...

P(2

| G

)...

...

...

......

...

0.18

...

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0.

13P

(1 |

G)

...

......

...

...

...

......

...

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(Dro

p | G

)...

0.

050.

14

0.05

0.02

0.

04

0.09

...

0.54

...P

(NE

| N

E)

...

......

...

...

...

......

...

0.63

No.

obs

21.0

12

915

4 10

345

.0

24.0

11

.0...

56

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00P

(G)

0.04

0.

23

0.28

0.

190.

08

0.04

0.

020.

00

0.10

0.01

Elig

ible

Con

trol

Tra

nsiti

on M

atrix

, Boy

s O

nly

Age

12

-> A

ge 1

3G

rade

(G

)8

76

54

32

1D

rop

NE

P(9

| G

)0.

12

0.10

...

...

...

......

...

...

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(8 |

G)

0.88

0.

68

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09...

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P(7

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)...

0.

140.

44

0.12

0.

11...

...

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0.14

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(6 |

G)

...

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20

0.49

0.

09

0.06

...

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04

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(5 |

G)

...

...

...0.

21

0.34

0.

22...

...

0.04

...

P(4

| G

)...

...

...

...

0.40

0.

33...

...

0.04

0.

20P

(3 |

G)

...

...

...

...

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17

0.50

...

0.07

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(2 |

G)

...

...

...

...

...

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17

......

0.

10P

(1 |

G)

...

...

...

...

...

......

...

...

0.10

P(D

rop

| G)

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0.08

0.23

0.

09

0.06

0.

220.

33

1.00

0.68

...

P(N

E |

NE

)...

...

...

...

...

...

...

......

0.

60N

o. o

bs17

.0

73.0

96

.0

67.0

35

.0

18.0

6.

001.

00

28.0

10.0

P(G

)0.

05

0.21

0.

27

0.19

0.

10

0.05

0.02

0.

000.

08

0.03

Tr e

atm

ent-

Con

trol

Diff

eren

ces,

Boy

s O

nly

Age

12

-> A

ge 1

3G

rade

(G

)8

7 6

54

32

1D

rop

NE

P(9

| G

)0.

07

-.03

0.01

...

...

...

......

...

...P

(8 |

G)

-.07

-.

03

-.04

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...

...

......

0.

13...

P(7

| G

)...

0.

090.

17

0.02

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...

...

...0.

07

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(6 |

G)

...

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06

0.11

0.14

0.

07...

...

0.04

...

P(5

| G

)...

...

...

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0.12

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10...

...

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)...

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...

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22

0.17

0.

27...

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020.

05P

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...

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...

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)...

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0.

03P

(1 |

G)

...

......

...

...

...

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...

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P(D

rop

| G)

...

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-.

04-.

03

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24-1

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(NE

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E)

...

......

...

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0.03

No.

obs

38.0

20

225

0 17

080

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42.0

17

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00

84.0

18.0

p-va

lue

0.54

0.

41

0.06

0.52

0.

13

0.32

0.

401.

00

0.19

0.

83

--

--

-2

-

Tabl

e A

.4(h

)E

ligib

le T

reat

men

t Tra

nsiti

on M

atrix

, Boy

s O

nly

Age

13

-> A

ge 1

4G

rade

(G

)9

8 7

65

43

21

Dro

p N

EP

(10

| G)

0.32

0.

080.

03

......

...

...

...

...0.

01

...P

(9 |

G)

0.63

0.

750.

18

0.11

...

...

......

...

0.07

...

P(8

| G

)...

0.

140.

54

0.14

0.

16...

...

...

...0.

04

...P

(7 |

G)

...

...0.

16

0.47

0.

07

0.10

...

......

0.

18...

P(6

| G

)...

...

...

0.10

0.56

0.

15

0.31

...

...0.

02

...P

(5 |

G)

...

......

...

0.09

0.

30

0.15

0.20

...

0.04

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P(4

| G

)...

...

...

......

0.

200.

38

0.20

...

...0.

12P

(3 |

G)

...

......

...

...

...0.

08

0.20

...

0.01

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P(2

| G

)...

...

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......

...

...

0.40

...

...

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(1 |

G)

...

......

...

...

...

......

...

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(Dro

p | G

)0.

05

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0.09

0.

18

0.12

0.

25

0.08

...

...0.

63

...P

(NE

| N

E)

...

......

...

...

...

......

...

...

0.82

No.

obs

19.0

83

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4 96

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.0

20.0

13

.0

5.00

...

96.0

17.0

P(G

)0.

04

0.17

0.21

0.

19

0.09

0.

04

0.03

0.01

0.

000.

19

0.03

Elig

ible

Con

trol

Tra

nsiti

on M

atrix

, Boy

s O

nly

Age

13

-> A

ge 1

4G

rade

(G

)9

87

65

43

21

Dro

p N

EP

(10

| G)

0.09

0.

07...

...

...

...

...

...

......

...

P(9

| G

)0.

73

0.61

0.

13

0.08

...

......

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...

...

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(8 |

G)

...

0.23

0.62

0.

12

0.08

...

......

...

0.08

...

P(7

| G

)...

...

0.04

0.

27

0.08

0.

15...

...

...

0.06

...

P(6

| G

)...

...

...

0.06

0.

50

0.20

...

...

...0.

08

...P

(5 |

G)

...

...

...

...0.

22

0.35

0.50

...

...

0.02

...P

(4 |

G)

...

...

...

...

...

...0.

50

0.33

...

0.02

0.33

P(3

| G

)...

...

...

...

...

...

...

...

......

...

P(2

| G

)...

...

...

...

...

...

...

0.67

...

......

P(1

| G

)...

...

...

...

...

...

...

...

......

...

P(D

rop

| G)

0.18

0.

09

0.21

0.

47

0.11

0.

30...

...

...

0.74

...

P(N

E |

NE

)...

...

...

...

...

...

...

...

......

0.

67N

o. o

bs11

.0

44.0

47

.0

49.0

36

.0

20.0

4.

003.

00

...62

.0

3.00

P(G

)0.

04

0.16

0.

17

0.18

0.

13

0.07

0.01

0.

01

0.00

0.22

0.

01

Tr e

atm

ent-

Con

trol

Diff

eren

ces,

Boy

s O

nly

Age

13

-> A

ge 1

4G

rade

(G

)9

8 7

65

43

21

Dro

p N

EP

(10

| G)

0.22

0.

02

0.03

...

......

...

...

...0.

01

...P

(9 |

G)

-.10

0.

13

0.06

0.03

...

...

......

...

0.07

...

P(8

| G

)...

-.

08-.

08

0.01

0.08

...

...

......

-.

04...

P(7

| G

)...

...

0.12

0.

20-.

01

-.05

...

......

0.

11...

P(6

| G

)...

...

...

0.04

0.06

-.

050.

31

......

-.

06...

P(5

| G

)...

...

...

...-.

13

-.05

-.

350.

20

...0.

03

...P

(4 |

G)

...

......

...

...

0.20

-.12

-.

13...

-.

02-.

22P

(3 |

G)

...

......

...

...

...0.

08

0.20

...

0.01

0.

06P

(2 |

G)

...

......

...

...

...

...-.

27

......

...

P(1

| G

)...

...

...

......

...

...

...

......

...

P(D

rop

| G)

-.13

-.

07

-.13

-.29

0.

01-.

05

0.08

...

...-.

12

...P

(NE

| N

E)

...

......

...

...

...

......

...

...

0.16

No.

obs

30.0

12

715

1 14

579

.0

40.0

17

.0

8.00

...

158

20.0

0.02

0.

01

0.00

0.20

0.

03p-

valu

e0.

25

0.20

0.

040.

01

0.51

0.

34

0.48

0.66

.

0.04

0.

59

--

--

-3

-

Tabl

e A

.4(i)

Elig

ible

Tre

atm

ent T

rans

ition

Mat

rix, B

oys

Onl

yA

ge 1

4 ->

Age

15

Gra

de (

G)

10

98

76

54

32

1D

rop

NE

P(1

1 | G

)...

0.

02...

...

...

...

...

...

...

......

...

P(1

0 | G

)0.

50

0.35

0.

14

0.04

...

......

...

...

...

0.03

...

P(9

| G

)...

0.

250.

70

0.20

0.

08...

...

...

...

...0.

03

...P

(8 |

G)

...

...0.

16

0.53

0.

06

0.09

...

...

...

...0.

02

...P

(7 |

G)

...

......

0.

090.

39

0.05

0.29

...

...

...0.

09

...P

(6 |

G)

...

......

...

0.10

0.

590.

14

......

...

0.01

...

P(5

| G

)...

...

...

...

...0.

14

0.14

0.

20...

...

0.01

...

P(4

| G

)...

...

...

...

...

...0.

29

0.40

...

......

0.

07P

(3 |

G)

...

......

...

...

...

...

...

...

...0.

01

...P

(2 |

G)

...

......

...

...

...

...

...

...

......

...

P(1

| G

)...

...

...

...

...

......

...

...

...

...

...P

(Dro

p | G

)0.

50

0.38

...

0.14

0.37

0.

140.

14

0.40

...

...0.

80

...P

(NE

| N

E)

...

......

...

...

...

...

...

...

......

0.

93N

o. o

bs8.

00

60.0

80.0

70

.0

51.0

22

.0

7.00

5.00

...

...

166

15.0

P(G

)0.

02

0.13

0.

17

0.15

0.

11

0.05

0.01

0.

01

0.00

0.

000.

35

0.03

Elig

ible

Con

trol

Tra

nsiti

on M

atrix

, Boy

s O

nly

Age

14

-> A

ge 1

5G

rade

(G

)10

9

87

65

43

21

Dro

p N

EP

(11

| G)

0.20

0.

03...

...

...

...

...

...

...

......

...

P(1

0 | G

)0.

20

0.29

0.

06

0.03

...

......

...

...

...

0.01

...

P(9

| G

)...

0.

180.

67

0.21

0.

15...

...

...

...

......

...

P(8

| G

)...

...

0.21

0.

44

0.06

0.

06...

...

...

...

0.05

...

P(7

| G

)...

...

...

0.08

0.24

0.

12...

...

...

...

0.05

...

P(6

| G

)...

...

...

...0.

09

0.41

0.13

...

...

...0.

02

...P

(5 |

G)

...

......

...

...

0.06

0.

25...

...

...

...

...P

(4 |

G)

...

......

...

...

...

...

...

...

......

0.

08P

(3 |

G)

...

......

...

...

...

...

...

...

......

...

P(2

| G

)...

...

...

...

...

......

...

...

...

...

...P

(1 |

G)

...

......

...

...

...

...

...

...

......

0.

08P

(Dro

p | G

)0.

60

0.50

0.

06

0.26

0.

45

0.35

0.63

...

...

...0.

88

...P

(NE

| N

E)

...

......

...

...

...

...

...

...

......

0.

85N

o. o

bs5.

00

34.0

48.0

39

.0

33.0

17

.0

8.00

...

...

...88

.0

13.0

P(G

)0.

02

0.12

0.

17

0.14

0.

12

0.06

0.03

0.

00

0.00

0.

000.

31

0.05

Tr e

atm

ent-

Con

trol

Diff

eren

ces,

Boy

s O

nly

Age

14

-> A

ge 1

5G

rade

(G

)10

9

87

65

43

21

Dro

pN

EP

(11

| G)

-.20

-.

01...

...

...

...

......

...

...

......

P(1

0 | G

)0.

30

0.06

0.08

0.

02...

...

...

...

......

0.

02...

P(9

| G

)...

0.

07

0.03

-.01

-.

07...

...

...

......

0.

03...

P(8

| G

)...

...

-.05

0.

09-.

00

0.03

...

......

...

-.02

...

P(7

| G

)...

...

...

0.01

0.15

-.

070.

29

......

...

0.04

...

P(6

| G

)...

...

...

...0.

01

0.18

0.

02...

...

...

-.01

...P

(5 |

G)

...

......

...

...

0.08

-.11

0.

20

......

0.

01...

P(4

| G

)...

...

...

......

...

0.29

0.

40

......

...

-.01

P(3

| G

)...

...

...

......

...

...

...

......

0.

01...

P(2

| G

)...

...

...

......

...

...

...

......

...

...P

(1 |

G)

...

......

...

...

...

......

...

...

...-.

08P

(Dro

p | G

)-.

10

-.12

-.06

-.

11-.

08

-.22

-.

480.

40

......

-.

07...

P(N

E |

NE

)...

...

...

......

...

...

...

......

...

0.09

No.

obs

13.0

94

.012

8 10

984

.0

39.0

15

.0

5.00

...

...25

4 28

.0p-

valu

e0.

30

0.66

0.07

0.

660.

61

0.42

0.

141.

00

..

0.36

0.

54

--

--

-4

-

--

--

Tabl

e A

.5(a

)N

on-e

ligib

le T

reat

men

t Tra

nsiti

on M

atrix

Age

6 -

> A

ge 7

Gra

de (

G)

21

NE

P(3

| G

)0.

08

0.08

0.08

P(2

| G

)0.

90

0.71

0.62

P(1

| G

)...

0.

200.

15P

(Dro

p | G

)0.

01

0.01

...P

(NE

| N

E)

...

...0.

15N

o. o

bs71

.0

268

26.0

P(G

)0.

19

0.73

0.07

Non

-elig

ible

Con

trol

Tra

nsiti

on M

atrix

Age

6 -

> A

ge 7

Gra

de (

G)

21

NE

P(3

| G

)0.

20

0.10

0.06

P(2

| G

)0.

80

0.66

0.38

P(1

| G

)...

0.

240.

31P

(Dro

p | G

)...

...

...

P(N

E |

NE

)...

...

0.25

No.

obs

46.0

19

716

.0P

(G)

0.18

0.

760.

06

Tr e

atm

ent-

Con

trol

Diff

eren

ces

Age

6 -

> A

ge 7

Gra

de (

G)

21

NE

P(3

| G

)-.

11

-.02

0.01

P(2

| G

)0.

10

0.05

0.24

P(1

| G

)...

-.

04-.

16P

(Dro

p | G

)0.

01

0.01

...P

(NE

| N

E)

...

...-.

10N

o. o

bs11

7 46

542

.0P

(G)

0.19

0.

750.

07p-

valu

e0.

16

0.34

0.43

--

--

-2

-

Tabl

e A

.5(b

)N

on-e

ligib

le T

reat

men

t Tra

nsiti

on M

atrix

Age

7 -

> A

ge 8

Gra

de (

G)

32

1D

rop

NE

P(4

| G

)0.

29

0.11

0.05

0.

500.

09P

(3 |

G)

0.68

0.

670.

25

0.50

0.45

P(2

| G

)...

0.

200.

61

...0.

18P

(1 |

G)

...

...0.

08

......

P(D

rop

| G)

0.03

0.

020.

02

......

P(N

E |

NE

)...

...

...

...

0.27

No.

obs

38.0

30

561

.0

2.00

11.0

P(G

)0.

09

0.73

0.15

0.

000.

03

Non

-elig

ible

Con

trol

Tra

nsiti

on M

atrix

Age

7 -

> A

ge 8

Gra

de (

G)

32

1D

rop

NE

P(4

| G

)0.

21

0.10

0.06

0.

25...

P(3

| G

)0.

79

0.68

0.28

0.

250.

18P

(2 |

G)

...

0.23

0.57

0.

500.

45P

(1 |

G)

...

...0.

09

...0.

27P

(Dro

p | G

)...

...

...

...

...P

(NE

| N

E)

...

...

......

0.

09N

o. o

bs52

.0

176

53.0

4.

0011

.0P

(G)

0.18

0.

590.

18

0.01

0.04

Tr e

atm

ent-

Con

trol

Diff

eren

ces

Age

7 -

> A

ge 8

Gra

de (

G)

32

1D

rop

NE

P(4

| G

)0.

08

0.02

-.01

0.

250.

09P

(3 |

G)

-.10

-.

00

-.04

0.25

0.

27P

(2 |

G)

...

-.03

0.04

-.

50-.

27P

(1 |

G)

...

...-.

01

...-.

27P

(Dro

p | G

)0.

03

0.02

0.

02...

...

P(N

E |

NE

)...

...

...

...0.

18N

o. o

bs90

.0

481

114

6.00

22.0

P(G

)0.

13

0.67

0.

160.

01

0.03

p-va

lue

0.33

0.

29

0.88

0.47

0.

11

--

--

-3

-

Tabl

e A

.5(c

)N

on-e

ligib

le T

reat

men

t Tra

nsiti

on M

atrix

Age

8 -

> A

ge 9

Gra

de (

G)

43

21

Dro

p N

EP

(5 |

G)

0.25

0.

080.

03

......

...

P(4

| G

)0.

69

0.75

0.27

0.

101.

00

0.14

P(3

| G

)...

0.

160.

61

0.25

...

0.43

P(2

| G

)...

...

0.07

0.

50...

0.

14P

(1 |

G)

...

...

...0.

05

...0.

14P

(Dro

p | G

)0.

06

0.01

0.02

0.

10...

...

P(N

E |

NE

)...

...

...

...

...0.

14N

o. o

bs52

.0

235

99.0

20

.03.

00

7.00

P(G

)0.

13

0.56

0.24

0.

050.

02

.

Non

-elig

ible

Con

trol

Tra

nsiti

on M

atrix

Age

8 -

> A

ge 9

Gra

de (

G)

43

21

Dro

p N

EP

(5 |

G)

0.21

0.

070.

01

......

...

P(4

| G

)0.

79

0.70

0.15

...

0.50

...

P(3

| G

)...

0.

230.

73

0.40

...

...P

(2 |

G)

...

...0.

10

0.60

...

0.33

P(1

| G

)...

...

...

...

......

P(D

rop

| G)

...

...

......

0.

50...

P(N

E |

NE

)...

...

...

...

...0.

67N

o. o

bs42

.0

165

67.0

10

.02.

00

3.00

P(G

)0.

15

0.57

0.23

0.

030.

01

.

Tr e

atm

ent-

Con

trol

Diff

eren

ces

Age

8 -

> A

ge 9

Gra

de (

G)

43

21

Dro

pN

EP

(5 |

G)

0.04

0.

01

0.02

...

...

...P

(4 |

G)

-.09

0.

05

0.12

0.10

0.

500.

14P

(3 |

G)

...

-.07

-.13

-.

15...

0.

43P

(2 |

G)

...

...-.

03

-.10

...

-.19

P(1

| G

)...

...

...

0.05

...

0.14

P(D

rop

| G)

0.06

0.

01

0.02

0.10

-.

50...

P(N

E |

NE

)...

...

...

......

-.

52N

o. o

bs94

.0

400

166

30.0

5.00

10

.0P

(G)

0.13

0.

57

0.24

0.04

0.

01.

p-va

lue

0.24

0.

23

0.20

0.54

0.

170.

35

--

--

-4

-

Tabl

e A

.5(d

)N

on-e

ligib

le T

reat

men

t Tra

nsiti

on M

atrix

Age

9 -

> A

ge 1

0G

rade

(G

)5

4 3

21

Dro

p N

EP

(6 |

G)

0.28

0.

11

0.02

...

......

...

P(5

| G

)0.

72

0.75

0.

330.

09

...0.

75

...P

(4 |

G)

...

0.14

0.51

0.

251.

00

......

P(3

| G

)...

...

0.14

0.

41...

...

...P

(2 |

G)

...

......

0.

22...

...

...P

(1 |

G)

...

......

...

...

...0.

25P

(Dro

p | G

)...

...

...

0.03

...

0.25

...P

(NE

| N

E)

...

......

...

...

...0.

75N

o. o

bs47

.0

223

120

32.0

2.00

4.

004.

00P

(G)

0.11

0.

52

0.28

0.07

0.

000.

01

0.01

Non

-elig

ible

Con

trol

Tra

nsiti

on M

atrix

Age

9 -

> A

ge 1

0G

rade

(G

)5

43

21

Dro

pN

EP

(6 |

G)

0.28

0.

090.

01

......

1.

00...

P(5

| G

)0.

72

0.74

0.24

0.

07...

...

...P

(4 |

G)

...

0.17

0.61

0.

25...

...

...P

(3 |

G)

...

...0.

13

0.61

...

......

P(2

| G

)...

...

...

0.07

1.

00...

...

P(1

| G

)...

...

...

...

......

...

P(D

rop

| G)

...

...

......

...

...

...P

(NE

| N

E)

...

...

......

...

...

1.00

No.

obs

47.0

16

283

.0

28.0

1.

001.

00

1.00

P(G

)0.

15

0.50

0.26

0.

090.

00

0.00

0.00

Tr e

atm

ent-

Con

trol

Diff

eren

ces

Age

9 -

> A

ge 1

0G

rade

(G

)5

4 3

21

Dro

p N

EP

(6 |

G)

...

0.02

0.00

...

...

-1.0

...P

(5 |

G)

...

0.01

0.09

0.

02...

0.

75...

P(4

| G

)...

-.

03-.

11

...1.

00

......

P(3

| G

)...

...

0.01

-.

20...

...

...P

(2 |

G)

...

......

0.

15-1

.0

......

P(1

| G

)...

...

...

......

...

0.25

P(D

rop

| G)

...

......

0.

03...

0.

25...

P(N

E |

NE

)...

...

...

......

...

-.25

No.

obs

94.0

38

520

3 60

.03.

00

5.00

5.00

P(G

)0.

12

0.51

0.

270.

08

0.00

0.01

0.

01p-

valu

e1.

00

0.62

0.

470.

36

0.08

0.08

0.

58

--

--

-5

-

Tabl

e A

.5(e

)N

on-e

ligib

le T

reat

men

t Tra

nsiti

on M

atrix

Age

10

-> A

ge 1

1G

rade

(G

)6

5 4

32

1D

rop

NE

P(7

| G

)0.

11

0.07

0.

03...

...

...

0.10

...P

(6 |

G)

0.87

0.

78

0.22

0.11

...

...

0.60

...P

(5 |

G)

...

0.15

0.59

0.

25

0.44

...

......

P(4

| G

)...

...

0.15

0.

53

0.25

1.00

0.

10...

P(3

| G

)...

...

...

0.11

0.25

...

...

...P

(2 |

G)

...

......

...

0.06

...

...

...P

(1 |

G)

...

......

...

...

......

...

P(D

rop

| G)

0.02

...

0.02

...

...

...0.

20

...P

(NE

| N

E)

...

......

...

...

......

1.

00N

o. o

bs47

.0

250

123

53.0

16.0

3.

0010

.0

1.00

P(G

)0.

09

0.50

0.

240.

11

0.03

0.01

0.

020.

00

Non

-elig

ible

Con

trol

Tra

nsiti

on M

atrix

Age

10

-> A

ge 1

1G

rade

(G

)6

5 4

32

1D

rop

NE

P(7

| G

)0.

08

0.08

0.

03...

...

...

......

P(6

| G

)0.

84

0.73

0.

200.

10

......

0.

67...

P(5

| G

)...

0.

180.

58

0.12

0.11

...

...

...P

(4 |

G)

...

...0.

18

0.59

...

......

...

P(3

| G

)...

...

...

0.20

0.56

1.

00...

...

P(2

| G

)...

...

...

...0.

33

......

...

P(1

| G

)...

...

...

......

...

...

...P

(Dro

p | G

)0.

08

0.01

0.

02...

...

...

0.33

...P

(NE

| N

E)

...

......

...

...

......

1.

00N

o. o

bs37

.0

158

102

41.0

9.00

1.

003.

00

1.00

P(G

)0.

11

0.45

0.

290.

12

0.03

0.

000.

01

0.00

Tr e

atm

ent-

Con

trol

Diff

eren

ces

Age

10

-> A

ge 1

1G

rade

(G

)6

5 4

32

1D

rop

NE

P(7

| G

)0.

03

-.01

0.00

...

...

...0.

10

...P

(6 |

G)

0.03

0.

06

0.02

0.02

...

...

-.07

...P

(5 |

G)

...

-.03

0.01

0.

12

0.33

...

......

P(4

| G

)...

...

-.03

-.

060.

25

1.00

0.10

...

P(3

| G

)...

...

...

-.08

-.31

-1

.0...

...

P(2

| G

)...

...

...

...-.

27

......

...

P(1

| G

)...

...

...

......

...

...

...P

(Dro

p | G

)-.

06

-.01

-.

00...

...

...

-.13

...P

(NE

| N

E)

...

......

...

...

......

...

No.

obs

84.0

40

822

5 94

.025

.0

4.00

13.0

2.

00P

(G)

0.10

0.

48

0.26

0.11

0.

030.

00

0.02

0.00

p-va

lue

0.42

0.

23

0.97

0.38

0.

040.

05

0.85

1.00

--

--

-6

-

Tabl

e A

.5(f

)N

on-e

ligib

le T

reat

men

t Tra

nsiti

on M

atrix

Age

11

-> A

ge 1

2G

rade

(G

)7

6 5

43

21

Dro

p N

EP

(8 |

G)

0.30

0.

05...

...

...

......

...

...P

(7 |

G)

0.67

0.

68

0.18

0.18

...

...

...0.

14

...P

(6 |

G)

...

0.13

0.68

0.

17

0.06

...

...0.

43

...P

(5 |

G)

...

...0.

11

0.45

0.

310.

14

......

...

P(4

| G

)...

...

...

0.17

0.44

...

...

......

P(3

| G

)...

...

...

...0.

19

0.57

...

0.14

...P

(2 |

G)

...

......

...

...

0.14

...

...0.

33P

(1 |

G)

...

......

...

...

......

...

...P

(Dro

p | G

)0.

02

0.13

0.

030.

03

...0.

14

...0.

29

...P

(NE

| N

E)

...

......

...

...

......

...

0.67

No.

obs

46.0

22

514

6 66

.016

.0

7.00

...

7.00

3.00

P(G

)0.

09

0.44

0.

280.

13

0.03

0.01

0.

000.

01

0.01

Non

-elig

ible

Con

trol

Tra

nsiti

on M

atrix

Age

11

-> A

ge 1

2G

rade

(G

)7

65

43

21

Dro

p N

EP

(8 |

G)

0.21

0.

030.

01

......

...

...

......

P(7

| G

)0.

63

0.69

0.17

0.

13...

...

...

0.33

...P

(6 |

G)

...

0.15

0.67

0.

21

0.07

...

...0.

33

...P

(5 |

G)

...

...0.

11

0.54

0.

20...

...

0.11

...

P(4

| G

)...

...

...

0.13

0.

531.

00

......

...

P(3

| G

)...

...

...

...

0.13

...

......

0.

33P

(2 |

G)

...

...

......

...

...

......

0.

33P

(1 |

G)

...

...

......

...

...

......

...

P(D

rop

| G)

0.17

0.

120.

03

...0.

07

......

0.

22...

P(N

E |

NE

)...

...

...

...

......

...

...

0.33

No.

obs

24.0

13

798

.0

24.0

15

.0

1.00

...

9.00

3.00

P(G

)0.

08

0.44

0.32

0.

08

0.05

0.00

0.

000.

03

0.01

Tr e

atm

ent-

Con

trol

Diff

eren

ces

Age

11

-> A

ge 1

2G

rade

(G

)7

6 5

43

21

Dro

p N

EP

(8 |

G)

0.10

0.

02-.

01

......

...

...

......

P(7

| G

)0.

05

-.01

0.00

0.

06...

...

...

-.19

...P

(6 |

G)

...

-.02

0.01

-.

04

-.00

...

...0.

10

...P

(5 |

G)

...

...-.

00

-.09

0.11

0.

14...

-.

11...

P(4

| G

)...

...

...

0.04

-.10

-1

.0...

...

...P

(3 |

G)

...

......

...

0.05

0.

57...

0.

14-.

33P

(2 |

G)

...

......

...

...

0.14

...

......

P(1

| G

)...

...

...

......

...

...

......

P(D

rop

| G)

-.14

0.

00-.

00

0.03

-.07

0.

14...

0.

06...

P(N

E |

NE

)...

...

...

......

...

...

...0.

33N

o. o

bs70

.0

362

244

90.0

31.0

8.

00...

16

.06.

00P

(G)

0.08

0.

44

0.30

0.11

0.

040.

01

0.00

0.02

0.

01p-

valu

e0.

07

0.71

0.

820.

79

0.78

0.09

.

0.59

0.

51

--

--

Tabl

e A

.5(h

)N

on-e

ligib

le T

reat

men

t Tra

nsiti

on M

atrix

Age

13

-> A

ge 1

4G

rade

(G

)9

8 7

65

43

21

Dro

p N

EP

(10

| G)

0.27

0.

10

0.02

...

......

...

...

...

...

...P

(9 |

G)

0.62

0.

65

0.11

0.08

...

...

...

...

...0.

03

...P

(8 |

G)

...

0.17

0.58

0.

10

0.04

...

...

...

...0.

07

...P

(7 |

G)

...

...0.

16

0.46

0.

24...

...

...

...

0.08

...

P(6

| G

)...

...

...

0.06

0.48

0.

14...

...

...

0.01

...

P(5

| G

)...

...

...

...0.

04

0.71

...

...

......

...

P(4

| G

)...

...

...

......

0.

140.

67

......

...

...P

(3 |

G)

...

......

...

...

......

0.

50...

...

...P

(2 |

G)

...

......

...

...

......

0.

50...

...

...P

(1 |

G)

...

......

...

...

......

...

...

...

...P

(Dro

p | G

)0.

12

0.08

0.

130.

30

0.20

...

0.33

...

...0.

81

...P

(NE

| N

E)

...

......

...

...

......

...

...

...

1.00

No.

obs

26.0

12

712

2 89

.025

.0

7.00

3.00

2.

00...

99

.03.

00P

(G)

0.05

0.

25

0.24

0.18

0.

050.

01

0.01

0.

00

0.00

0.20

0.

01

Non

-elig

ible

Con

trol

Tra

nsiti

on M

atrix

Age

13

-> A

ge 1

4G

rade

(G

)9

87

65

43

21

Dro

p N

EP

(10

| G)

0.24

0.

08

0.01

...

......

...

...

...

0.01

...

P(9

| G

)0.

64

0.72

0.

17

0.05

...

......

...

...

0.01

...

P(8

| G

)...

0.

190.

51

0.05

...

......

...

...

0.07

...

P(7

| G

)...

...

0.14

0.

47

0.10

0.33

...

...

...0.

10

...P

(6 |

G)

...

...

...0.

12

0.70

...

...

...

......

...

P(5

| G

)...

...

...

...

0.05

...

...

...

......

...

P(4

| G

)...

...

...

...

...

...

1.00

...

......

...

P(3

| G

)...

...

...

...

...

...

...

...

......

...

P(2

| G

)...

...

...

...

...

...

...

...

......

...

P(1

| G

)...

...

...

...

...

...

...

...

......

...

P(D

rop

| G)

0.12

0.

01

0.17

0.

31

0.15

0.67

...

...

...0.

81

...P

(NE

| N

E)

...

...

...

...

......

...

...

...

...

1.00

No.

obs

25.0

95

.0

71.0

59

.0

20.0

3.

002.

00

......

83

.04.

00P

(G)

0.07

0.

26

0.20

0.

16

0.06

0.01

0.

01

0.00

0.

000.

23

0.01

Tr e

atm

ent-

Con

trol

Diff

eren

ces

Age

13

-> A

ge 1

4G

rade

(G

)9

8 7

65

43

21

Dro

p N

EP

(10

| G)

0.03

0.

02

0.00

...

......

...

...

...-.

01

...P

(9 |

G)

-.02

-.

07

-.05

0.03

...

...

......

...

0.02

...

P(8

| G

)...

-.

020.

07

0.05

0.04

...

...

...

...-.

00

...P

(7 |

G)

...

...0.

01

-.01

0.14

-.

33...

...

...

-.02

...

P(6

| G

)...

...

...

-.06

-.22

0.

14...

...

...

0.01

...

P(5

| G

)...

...

...

...-.

01

0.71

...

...

......

...

P(4

| G

)...

...

...

......

0.

14-.

33

......

...

...P

(3 |

G)

...

......

...

...

......

0.

50...

...

...P

(2 |

G)

...

......

...

...

......

0.

50...

...

...P

(1 |

G)

...

......

...

...

......

...

...

...

...P

(Dro

p | G

)-.

00

0.07

-.04

-.

000.

05

-.67

0.33

...

...

0.00

...P

(NE

| N

E)

...

......

...

...

......

...

...

...

...N

o. o

bs51

.0

222

193

148

45.0

10

.0

5.00

2.00

...

182

7.00

P(G

)0.

06

0.26

0.

220.

17

0.05

0.

010.

01

0.00

0.

000.

21

0.01

p-va

lue

0.97

0.

12

0.74

0.52

0.

54

0.04

0.36

1.

00.

0.72

1.

00

--

--

-2

-

Tabl

e A

.5(i)

Non

-elig

ible

Tre

atm

ent T

rans

ition

Mat

rixA

ge 1

4 ->

Age

15

Gra

de (

G)

10

98

76

54

32

1D

rop

NE

P(1

1 | G

)0.

17

0.03

...

......

...

...

...

...

......

...

P(1

0 | G

)0.

42

0.41

0.

150.

11

......

...

...

...

...0.

01

...P

(9 |

G)

...

0.13

0.69

0.

09

0.05

...

......

...

...

0.02

...

P(8

| G

)...

...

0.09

0.

49

0.13

...

......

...

...

0.01

...

P(7

| G

)...

...

...

0.08

0.40

0.

07...

...

...

...

0.10

...

P(6

| G

)...

...

...

...0.

05

0.53

...

...

...

...0.

01

...P

(5 |

G)

...

......

...

...

0.13

0.67

0.

33...

...

0.01

...

P(4

| G

)...

...

...

......

...

...

...

...

...0.

01

...P

(3 |

G)

...

......

...

...

......

...

...

...

...

...P

(2 |

G)

...

......

...

...

......

...

...

...

...

...P

(1 |

G)

...

......

...

...

......

...

...

...

...

...P

(Dro

p | G

)0.

42

0.43

0.

070.

23

0.38

0.

270.

33

0.67

...

...0.

84

...P

(NE

| N

E)

...

......

...

...

......

...

...

...

...

1.00

No.

obs

12.0

12

010

7 53

.040

.0

15.0

3.

003.

00

......

15

34.

00P

(G)

0.02

0.

24

0.21

0.11

0.

08

0.03

0.01

0.

01

0.00

0.

000.

31

0.01

Non

-elig

ible

Con

trol

Tra

nsiti

on M

atrix

Age

14

-> A

ge 1

5G

rade

(G

)10

9

87

65

43

21

Dro

p N

EP

(11

| G)

0.22

0.

06...

...

...

...

...

...

...

......

...

P(1

0 | G

)0.

33

0.31

0.

09

0.07

...

......

...

...

...

0.05

...

P(9

| G

)...

0.

170.

72

0.11

0.

08...

...

...

...

...0.

01

...P

(8 |

G)

...

...0.

11

0.39

0.

16...

...

...

...

...0.

04

...P

(7 |

G)

...

......

0.

070.

24

......

...

...

...

0.06

...

P(6

| G

)...

...

...

...0.

12

0.50

0.17

...

...

......

...

P(5

| G

)...

...

...

...

...0.

17

0.33

...

...

......

...

P(4

| G

)...

...

...

...

...

...0.

17

......

...

...

...P

(3 |

G)

...

......

...

...

...

...

...

...

......

...

P(2

| G

)...

...

...

...

...

......

...

...

...

...

...P

(1 |

G)

...

......

...

...

...

...

...

...

......

...

P(D

rop

| G)

0.44

0.

46

0.07

0.

36

0.40

0.

330.

33

......

...

0.85

...

P(N

E |

NE

)...

...

...

...

...

......

...

...

...

...

1.00

No.

obs

9.00

96

.054

.0

28.0

25

.0

12.0

6.

00...

...

...

104

6.00

P(G

)0.

03

0.29

0.

16

0.08

0.

08

0.04

0.02

0.

00

0.00

0.

000.

31

0.02

Tr e

atm

ent-

Con

trol

Diff

eren

ces

Age

14

-> A

ge 1

5G

rade

(G

)10

9

87

65

43

21

Dro

p N

EP

(11

| G)

-.06

-.

03...

...

...

......

...

...

...

...

...P

(10

| G)

0.08

0.

10

0.06

0.04

...

...

......

...

...

-.04

...

P(9

| G

)...

-.

03-.

03

-.01

-.

03...

...

...

...

...0.

01

...P

(8 |

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Progressing through PROGRESA: An Impact Assessment of a School Subsidy Experiment in Mexico

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Transcript of Progressing through PROGRESA: An Impact Assessment of a School Subsidy Experiment in Mexico