Post-secondary education and underemployment in a longitudinal study of Ontario baby boomers

• Pergamon

S0952-8733(96)00007-4

Higher Education Policy, Vol. 9, No. 2, pp. 159 174, 1996 Copyright (5 1996 International Association of Universities Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. Printed in Great Britain

0952-8733/96 $15.00 + 0.00

Post-secondary education and underemployment in a longitudinal study of Ontario baby boomers

Paul Anisef, 1 Fredriek D. Ashbury, 2 Katherine Bischoping I and Zeng Lin ~

York University, 4700 Keele Street, North York, Ontario, Canada M3J 1P3 and 2Centre for Behavioural Research and Program Education, National Cancer Institute

of Canada, 10 Alcorn Avenue, Toronto, Ontario, Canada M4V 3B1

We focus first on the changing nature of skill-job mismatch among post-secondary graduates, using longitudinal data to assess the impact of gender, socioeconomic status, field of study, and other factors, on mismatch. Second, we provide a detailed comparison between college and university graduates to determine whether predictors of mismatch are identical for these two groups. Third, we analyse the exposure of post-secondary graduates to alternative education, such as private vocational schools, and assess the relationship between skill-job mismatch and pursuit of further education. In concluding, we argue that the "school-to-work transition" for post- secondary students is becoming more complex. There is little coordination among post-secondary educational offerings and students' choices are often individualized. In order to address the skill-job mismatch problem, greater coordination between suppliers of conventional and extra-institutional forms of post-secondary education is needed. Copyright © 1996 International Association of Universities

T H E P R O B L E M OF M I S M A T C H IN CANADIAN P O S T - S E C O N D A R Y E D U C A T I O N

During the long post-war economic expansion, the development of mass public education in Canada appeared to uphold the standard human capital argument for a linear relationship between education level and labour force status in terms of income and prestige. It was a seller's market during the late 1950s and the 1960s, especially for post-secondary graduates looking for their first jobs. But much has changed in the last 15 years. Automation and mechanization have reduced the number of jobs in many industrial sectors and may have lead to the deskilling of many remaining jobs. The periodic recession has seriously curtailed overall employment, while liberalization and free trade have induced some companies to shift factories and head offices out of Canada. Hard economic times have been accompanied by a fiscal crisis for govern- ments, leading to major reductions in spending at all levels of the education system (Anisef and Axelrod, 1993; Erwin and MacLennan, 1994).

Faced with these social problems, politicians, business leaders, organized labour representatives, and other representatives of the general public have claimed that Canadian post-secondary institutions fail to equip their graduates with skills matched to the present labour market, leading to a so-called "skills shortage". This framing of unemployment issues signals a significant conceptual change in Canada 's labour

159

160 Paul Anisef et al.

market policy from a human capital approach to a strategy of human resource development (Smith and Smith, 1990). The "problem" appears particularly alarming in face of increasing enrollment in post-secondary programmes: full- and part-time enrollees in universities and community colleges numbered some 90,000 in 1951, but over 1.2 million in 1993. Canadian education expenditures, currently approaching $4 billion for community colleges and $11 billion for universities, are 21 times greater than they were four decades ago.

However, a closer look at the Canadian labour market seems to call the "skills shortage" framing of the underemployment problem into question. Evidence that skill level requirements have increased is mixed, reflecting difficulties in judging changing skill requirements and the high rate of job turnover (Levin, 1995). In the shift from manufacturing to service-sector work, the newly available jobs tend to be "McJobs" (Coupland, 1993:5), compensated with low wages and poor benefits, and are largely part-time and seasonal in nature (McDowell, 1991). These job features are usually associated with low skills, contradicting the skills shortage argument. In fact, as Livingstone (1993) argued, Canada continues to face the problem of underemployment, and in Ontario at least a third of all workers under 25 and over a third of all workers with post-secondary qualifications were underemployed. Moreover, women in particular continue to face the prospects of low status and part-time jobs (Armstrong and Armstrong, 1993; Looker and McNutt, 1989).

Just as unemployment statistics do not convey the numbers of people who have given up looking for work, employment statistics do not convey the enormous amount of underemployment in the work force. Underemployment can be divided into "visible" underemployment, in which work periods are shorter than is normal, and "invisible" underemployment, in which workers find that their skills are not fully used, that their earnings are disproportionately low, or that they are employed by firms with abnormally low productivity (Clogg and Shockey, 1984; 1LO, 1975; Hussmanns et al., 1990; Sicherman, 1991). The issue of mismatch between skills and employment gathered momentum in the 1970s when labour market absorption of post-secondary graduates became increasingly problematic. Mismatch came under scrutiny as researchers explored the inflation of job-entry credentials employers demanded (Berg, 1970), and credentialism itself became a focus of attention (Collins, 1979).

In this study, we address three critical questions. First of all, we seek to identify the causes and correlates of mismatch, placing it in the context of the gender of graduates, their families' socioeconomic backgrounds, their fields of study, and the availability of jobs in their geographic location. This expands the range of variables normally employed in examining mismatch. Several hypotheses guide the approach taken to examine employment mismatch in this paper. These are:

1. women are more likely to experience mismatch in employment compared to men (Armstrong and Armstrong, 1993; Ashton and Lowe, 1991);

2. persons of low socioeconomic status of origin are more likely to experience mismatch in employment compared to persons of middle and upper socioeconomic status of origin (Anisef et al., 1980);

3. graduates of humanities and social science programmes are more likely to experience mismatch in employment compared to graduates of science and technology fields (Country Report: Canada, 1991); and

4. persons geographically located in rural areas or small towns are more likely to

Education and underemployment in Ontario baby boomers 161

experience mismatch in employment compared to persons geographically located in cities (Brym, 1986).

Moreover, mismatch has been found to be strongly related to time of measurement, with first jobs often being poorly related to education while subsequent employment tends to be increasingly relevant to employees' interests and educational backgrounds (Anisef et al., 1994). In this study, we use a longitudinal data set that allows us to compare 1973 secondary school students' experiences in 1979 and in 1987-1988. One of the strengths of this analysis is that we have a much longer time period in which to examine changes in invisible underemployment than is available to most other researchers.

Second, we note that while the problem of mismatch has received some attention in Canada (Redpath, 1994), very little has been done to investigate the extent of mismatching for community college (or CAAT) graduates in comparison with university graduates.* However, the differences in the types of training provided by CAATs and universities lead us to ask whether predictors of match/mismatch are similar for graduates of these two types of institutions (Teichler, 1989, 1992). Is it possible to create a "post-secondary" model that treats the two groups identically? Or are they so different as to find no common ground? The answer has policy implications, since it will indicate whether the mismatch results for the fairly well researched university population can be extended to the underexplored CAAT population.

Third, vocational training is becoming an increasingly common element of the life course for Canadians (Livingstone, 1993; Thomas, 1993). Our longitudinal database has also permitted us to track the extent to which matched and mismatched graduates pursue further degree or diploma programmes, as well as vocational training (in- service, short-term training, and continuing education programmes). Over 37% of post-secondary graduates in our sample sought out additional vocational or other forms of adult training. We hypothesize that universities graduates will be more likely to pursue vocational training in order to enhance their employment opportunities and matching.

In our conclusions, we will reflect on the policy implications of our study and situate our analysis as a response to the current public policy debate in Ontario. Our research can be applied in advising the leadership of post-secondary educational institutions about programmes they might develop for their students and graduates to facilitate their entry into a turbulent world of work now and into the next century. Post-secondary institutions might expand their mandates to include considerations of employment match status of their graduates and develop mechanisms to monitor the extent to which their graduates are securing positions of employment commensurate with the education graduates received within these institutions.

DATA AND M E T H O D

A study of Ontario grade 12 students was initiated in 1973 in order to examine the efficacy of employing educational and career aspirations and expectations to predict

*Ontario's post-secondary system largely consists of universities and colleges of applied arts and technology (CAAT). Universities confer degrees upon their graduates and offer undergraduate, graduate, and professional programs. Community colleges grant terminal diplomas to their graduates and do not permit movement into graduate and professional studies. Moreover, CAAT diplomas are often linked to a specific occupation, while university degrees tend to be associated with academic disciplines.


post-secondary educational and work decisions (Anisef, 1975; Turrittin el al., 1983). The initial survey was based on a random sample of 99 secondary schools selected from across Ontario of which 97 agreed to participate. Ultimately, more than 2500 students responded to the survey during 1973, a response rate of 87%. A follow-up study implemented in 1979 yielded a response rate of 60% of the 1973 sample (n= 1522). In the summer of 1987, the relocation of the 1979 sample began, ending in the summer of 1988. Eighty percent of the 1979 sample were located and re-interviewed by telephone (n = 1222), representing just under half of the 1973 sample.*

Panel participants were approximately 33 years of age at the time of our most recent follow-up (1987/1988), and many had been in the workforce for as many as 15 years. In 1988, about 30% of the sample had undertaken no post-secondary education or training, more than 25% had community college diplomas or completed appren- ticeship programmes in skilled trades, and nearly 40% had finished a university and/or professional degree programme. Since 1979, some 23 % of respondents had completed some form of post-secondary education or formal training (Anisef et al., 1992).

The measure of mismatch we use is the National Occupational Classification (NOC) of underemployment.t- Independent variables include dummy variables for location (cities, small towns/rural areas), education (university, CAAT) and gender. Fields of study were placed in four categories for university students (pure science, applied science, social science, humanities), and a set of four different categories for CAAT students (applied arts, business, health, technology). In order to combine the university and CAAT data, a dichotomous field of study variable was also developed, consisting of science/technology areas versus all others. Family socioeconomic status in 1973 was placed into three categories (lower, middle and upper) using a factor analysis of mother's education, father's education, parents' total income, the Blishen score for father's occupation, and the Blishen score for mother's occupation. The Appendix indicates how each of these variables was coded for the logistic regressions we present.

RESULTS

Time and match/mismatch

In Table l, we see that skill-job mismatch is almost halved between 1979 and 1988, as graduates gained experience and as the labour market shifted. Community college graduates had more success in matching their education with employment in both 1979 and 1988. However, university graduates showed a rapid improvement in match

*Between the 1973 and 1979 phases, two other follow-up studies were conducted (late in 1973, and in 1974). For further information on the longitudinal research, see Anisef el al. (1980).

tThe NOC, developed in 1991, has replaced Canada's previous Canadian Classification and Dictionary of Occupations (CCDO) system and represents a new structure for undertaking analysis of the labour market (Employment and Immigration Canada, 1971). Developed by Employment and Immigration Canada (EIC--now Human Resources Development Canada), the NOC attends to innumerable changes that have taken place in Canadian jobs over the past two decades and classifies jobs using the criteria of skill level (four categories), skill type (10 categories), industry and occupational mobility (Employment and Immigration Canada, 1971). These factors were not well addressed by the CCDO. and EIC has undertaken an extensive validation process among employers and their associations, organized labour and academicians. Also, the NOC provides a superior ranking of educational requirements for jobs requiring a community college education. It does not provide a skills-type coding for management and administrative occupations; these were assigned based on extensive information on occupational duties, responsibilities and salaries.


Table 1: Comparing education~ob match status for university and community college in 1979 and 1988

Model University** Community college

Year 1979 1988 1979 1988

Mismatched (%) 54.9 35.1 27.7 21.2 Matched (%) 45.1 64.9 72.3 78.8 Total (%) 100 100 100 100 n (255) (336) (238) (216)

*P<0.05; **P<0.01.

status over time (P < 0.01), while community college graduates did not change match status significantly.

Mismatch and field of study As Table 2 shows, university graduates concentrating in the social science and

humanities obtained lower rates of employment matching than graduates in the pure and applied sciences (P<0.01 in 1979; P<0.05 in 1987/1988). Among community college graduates (Table 3), business students had the lowest match rates, while health programme graduates were much more likely to obtain employment reflecting their education. Indeed, by 1987/1988, community college graduates of health programmes experienced no mismatch in their employment. The gap between matched and mis-

Table 2: Education-job match status by field of study for university graduates

Field of study Pure science Applied science Social science Humanities

1979* Mismatched (%) 23.1 37.3 63.6 73.5 Matched (%) 76.9 62.7 36.4 26.5 Total (%) 100 100 100 100 n (26) (51) (107) (34)

1988"* Mismatched (%) 30.6 19.2 37.5 36.2 Matched (%) 69.4 80.8 62.5 63.8 Total (%) 100 100 100 100 n (36) (73) (120) (47)

*P<0.05; **P<0.01.

Table 3: Education-job match status by field of study for community college graduates in 1979 and 1988

Field of study Applied arts Business Health Technology

1979" Mismatched (%) 30.3 55.2 7.7 28.6 Matched (%) 69.7 44.8 92.3 71.4 Total (%) 100 100 100 100 n (76) (29) (52) (49)

1988"* Mismatched (%) 23.5 26.1 0.0 23.3 Matched (%) 76.5 73.9 100 76.7 Total (%) 100 100 100 100 n (51) (23) (46) (43)

*P<0.05; **P<0.01.

164 Paul Anisef el al.

matched graduates in terms of field of study narrowed from 1979 to 1988, as the previous tables illustrate. This was true for all cases except for university graduates in pure science disciplines. In these disciplines, the proport ion of university graduates who were mismatched, according to the NOC classification, increased from 23.1% to 30.6%. Nevertheless, even in 1987/1988 a substantial proportion of graduates of programmes in either university or community college (except health programme graduates), but especially university graduates, continue to experience employment mismatch.

Logistic regression models for university and community college graduates

We wanted to determine the extent to which predictors of match/mismatch status are similar for CAAT and university graduates. Is it possible to create a "post- secondary model" that treats CAAT and university graduates identically? Or are they so different as to find no common ground?

An initial model was run using a series of interaction terms between type of education and the other independent variables, as well as an interaction of gender and field of study. In the next step, interactions that proved insignificant in the initial model were omitted, giving the regression equations shown in Table 4. Variables having only main effects in these models are: location, which was of borderline significance in 1979, as city residents showed a higher match rate than residents of rural areas or small towns; and field of study, which showed a strong tendency in both 1979 and 1988 for science and technology graduates to be better matched in their subsequent employment than graduates in other areas.

The remaining variables--gender, socioeconomic status, and education in CAAT or university--show somewhat more complicated interaction relationships, indicating that prediction models for CAAT and university students' match/mismatch status do significantly differ. In order to interpret the results, which appear in the regression equations as a tangle of main effects and interactions, we have presented them graphically (see Figs 1 and 2), showing how various groups of graduates are differ- entially affected.

Figures 1 and 2 show the combined effects of education and gender for graduates

Table 4: Logistic regression for educat ion-employment matching with education, gender, location, socioeconomic status, field of study, and education interaction terms

1979 1987/1988

B SE P B SE P

Location - 0 . 1 9 0.11 0.08 - 0 . 1 2 0.10 0.22 Field of study 0.61 0.11 0.00 0.24 0.10 0.02 Education - 0 . 5 3 0.13 0.00 0.02 0.11 0.84 Gender - 0.27 0.11 0.02 - 0.29 0.11 0.00

SES SES (lower) - 0 . 1 5 0.19 0.41 - 0 . 4 7 0.17 0.00 SES (middle) 0.21 0.14 0.14 0.37 0.14 0.00

Education Interactions: Educ*gender 0.16 0.11 0.14 0.41 0.11 0.00 Educ*SES (lower) --0.33 0.18 0.08 - 0 . 2 0 0.16 0.21 Educ*SES (middle) 0.06 0.16 0.70 - 0 . 4 0 0.15 0.01

Note: for the 1979 model, - 2 log likelihood = 515.2, Z2=76.8, d.f. =9 , P<0 .0 , n=427 . For the 1987/1988 model, - 2 log likelihood = 576.1, Z2= 56.0, d . f .=9 , P<0 .0 , n=456 .


in 1979 and 1988. Here, we see that in 1979, women graduates (P<0 .05) and CAAT graduates ( P < 0.01) had the greatest success in obtaining employment that reflected their educational experiences. The regression also shows that the mild interaction apparent in the 1979 panel of the figure, such that the effects for women CAAT graduates are magnified, is not significant (P>0.10) . However, turning to the 1988 figure, we see that the interaction has become much more dramatic: employment that matches educational experience is far more likely to be held among women CAAT graduates than among any other group, with men who graduated from CAAT showing the poorest matching, and men and women university graduates fall close together in a middle ground (P<0.01).

Figures 3 and 4 show the effects of education and socioeconomic status (SES) in tandem for post-secondary graduates in 1979 and 1988. In the 1979 panel, we see that at each SES level, CAAT graduates are better matched than university graduates. Although the match status varies somewhat by SES for both CAAT and university

University - - - CAAT

1 . 0 m

1979 ~

0.5 - ~

0

-0.5 -

-1.0

- 1 . 5 I Men Women

F i g u r e 1: Interaction effects of gender and education on skil l- job match status.


1.0 - - 1987/88

0.5 -- / / / /

/ /

-1.0

- 1 . 5 I Me Women

Figure 2: Interaction effects of gender and education on skill-job match status.

/ _ _ /

/ /

/

-0.5

1 6 6 Paul An i se f et al.

1 .0 - -

0 . 5

-0 .5

- 1 . 0

- - University

- - - CAAT

1 9 7 9

-1.5 I I Lower SES Middle SES Upper S E S

Figure 3: Interaction effects o f SES and educat ion on ski l l - job match status.

graduates, the only significant relation in 1979 is this gap between CAAT and university graduates (P< 0.01). The relations change when we examine the 1988 results and see a strong interaction (P<0 .01) . In the second panel of the figure, we see that university students' chances of obtaining employment that matched their education increased with their SES. For CAAT students, interestingly, the middle SES group showed the best matching results. We suspect that the poor match rates of the high SES college graduates may reflect a poor institution-status fit for this group--i .e, that high SES students face greater expectations to attend university, and may therefore be less successful at fully implementing the skills learned in a college environment.

The implications of these findings are not clear without further analysis. For example, can we conclude from the generally higher rate of matching for CAAT student groups that colleges prepare students more directly for their employment experiences? Perhaps not: as the bivariate analyses suggested, university students appear to have improved match status over time, while the proportion of CAAT

1.0 --

0 .5

0

- 0 . 5

- 1 . 0

- 1 . 5 Lower S E S

- - University

- - - CAAT

1 9 8 7 / 8 8

_ / / / / \ \ \ \

¢ / \

_ / \ / f \

I Middle SES Upper S E S

Figure 4: Interaction effects o f SES and education on skil l -job match status.


Table 5: Logistic regression for education-employment matching with education, gender, location, socioeconomic status, field of study, and education interaction terms (eliminating field of study "health" for

community college)

1979 1987/1988

B SE P B SE P

Location -0.19 0.11 0.09 --0.09 0.10 0.39 Field of study 0.48 0.11 0.00 0.05 0.11 0.61 Education -0.45 0.13 0.00 0.11 0.11 0.31 Gender -0.17 0.12 0.16 -0 .04 0.11 0.72

SES SES (lower) -0.12 0.19 0.53 -0 .42 0.18 0.02 SES (middle) 0.18 0.15 0.22 0.28 0.15 0.05

Education Interactions: Educ*gender 0.08 0.11 0.49 0.20 0.11 0.07 Educ*SES (lower) -0.27 0.18 0.14 -0 .16 0.17 0.34 Educ*SES (middle) 0.06 -0.15 0.70 -0.36 0.15 0.02

Note: for the 1979 model, - 2 log likelihood = 485.9, ;(2=39.84, d.f. =9, P<0.0, n= 379. For the 1987/1988 model, - 2 log likelihood = 540.6 X2= 30.6, d.f.=9, P<0.0, n=412.

graduates who are "matched" has increased comparatively less (Tables 2 and 3 above). Because the two samples differ and a time-series analysis could not be conducted, we cannot test the significance of this result immediately but will return to explore it further when discussing the flow of college graduates to university education.

We might also ask whether the interaction seen in Fig. 1, showing a highly successful matching for women CAAT graduates and a low match rate for men CAAT graduates, implies that a CAAT education is most beneficial to women and least so to men? Further analysis indicates that the gender by education interaction has greater complexity. Specifically, noting that 38% of CAAT women were concentrated in health programmes of study, in contrast with only 1% of CAAT men, we hypothesized that the high match rate observed for women CAAT graduates could largely be attributed to the high match rate among this specialized health occupation group. In order to test this hypothesis, we repeated the logistic regression analysis, omitting the CAAT health graduates (Table 5). Although the majority of the trends obtained for analysis of the full sample hold true, Figures 5 and 6 show that in 1979 omission of the CAAT health graduates considerably attenuated the gender gap in matching (P > 0.10), while the advantage of CAAT students remains significant (P < 0.01).

Similarly, in 1988, the interactive effects of gender and education are reduced to borderline significance by this omission (P < 0.10). Even though the decline in sample size of 44 respondents in 1979 and 48 respondents in 1988 accounts for some of the reduced significance, an examination of the regression coefficients also indicates a much weaker effect of gender, education, and their interaction. These weakened effects are also visible when Figures 7 and 8 are compared with Figures 3 and 4. Therefore, we conclude that the differential influences of a CAAT education for women and men cannot be regarded as a simple effect of gender, but is instead significantly mediated by the field of study that is pursued.

Post-secondary education, vocational training and mismatch experiences

Between the 1979 and 1987/1988 survey phases, 120 respondents had obtained their post-secondary degrees (9.8% out of 1222 respondents). Among these respondents,

168 Paul An i se f et al.

1.0

0.5

0

-0.5

- 1 . 0 m

- - University

- - - CAAT

1979

-1.5 Men Women

Figure 5: In terac t ion effects of gende r and educa t ion on sk i l l - job ma tch s ta tus (omi t t ing C A A T hea l th graduates) .

16 had upgraded their educational attainment from community college to university (13.3% out of 120 respondents); 34 completed their university degree (28.3%); 15 completed their community college diploma (12.5%); 16 people made the transition from high school to university (13.3%); and a further 37 enrolled in community colleges (30.8%). Two respondents obtained community college diplomas after gradu- ating from university.

Vocational training and mismatch

A greater proportion of university (40%) than community college (32.7%) graduates undertook vocational training between 1979 and 1987/1988. We hypothesized that a greater proportion of mismatched than matched post-secondary graduates would pursue vocational training in the period between 1979 and 1987/1988. Our

University

- - - CAAT 1 . 0 - -

1 9 8 7 / 8 8

0.5 --

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-1 .0

- a . 5 I Men Women

Figure 6: In t e r ac t i on effects o f gende r and educa t ion on sk i l l - job ma tch s ta tus (omi t t ing C A A T heal th graduates) .


1.0

0.5

-0.5

-1.0


-- ]979

-1.5 I I Lower SES Middle SES Upper SES

Figure 7: Interaction effects of SES and education on skill-job match status (omitting CAAT health graduates).

analysis revealed, however, no suppor t for this c o n t e n t i o n - - 4 2 % of mismatched university graduates pursued vocat ional training compared to 40.2% of matched university graduates, and 37.5% o f mismatched college graduates under took vocational training compared to 36.7% o f matched college graduates.

We further hypothesized that graduates acquir ing additional vocational training would be more likely to be matched in 1987/1988 than graduates not receiving vocational training. However, we found both university and college graduates who under took vocational training were more matched in 1987/1988 than post -secondary graduates who did not pursue vocat ional training (positive movement of about 10 full percentage points for both types o f graduates), but the effect in terms of improved employment opportunit ies was significant (P < 0.05) for university graduates only. In other words, for both university and C A A T graduates, skill-job match status did not significantly affect their mot ivat ion to pursue vocat ional training.

1.0

0.5

0

-0.5 --

- 1 . 0 - -

-1.5 Lower SES


-- 1988

/ / / xN

/ \ / J f x

I

Middle SES Upper SES

Figure 8: Interaction effects of SES and education on skill-job match status (omitting CAAT health graduates).


CONCLUSIONS

The analysis of skills mismatch as reported in this paper seeks to contribute to the growing literature on the subject in a number of ways. In agreement with Halaby (1994), we introduced an objective measurement of mismatch that is more sensitive to skill levels generally associated with the educational qualifications obtained by university and community college graduates. In addition, we have attempted to conceptualize mismatch broadly by introducing factors not typically employed in the analysis of mismatch. These factors included geographical location of graduates and socioeconomic status of the family of origin. Furthermore, almost all analyses of mismatch reported in the literature examine this outcome for university graduates exclusively. We have raised the important conceptual (and practical) question: can university and community college graduates be treated identically in a post-secondary mismatch model? In this paper we have adopted the position that it is important to compare the skills mismatch experiences of university and community college graduates. Moreover, the longitudinal nature of our data provided the opportunity to examine mismatch processes over the long term. Finally, in examining the consequences of mismatch subsequent to 1979 (at which time our graduates were in early career) we identified the extent to which they obtained further vocational training (e.g. short courses), hypothesizing that mismatched post-secondary graduates would be more likely to pursue vocational training than their matched counterparts.

Our findings clearly demonstrate the importance of incorporating the employment experiences of community college graduates when considering the issue of skills mismatch. While underemployment rates for university graduates are substantially higher than those of college graduates, when we examined early job histories over time university graduates appeared to improve their match status more substantially than college graduates. While field of study in 1979 and 1988 has similar significant main effects on match status for both university and community college graduates, the presence of interaction effects of education with both gender and socioeconomic status should caution researchers, institutional administrators and policy-makers against generalizing from results based on a university population. For example, although female college graduates obtained the best match of all groups between their education and employment, it appears that the specific field of study they concentrated in (e.g. health) was the critical factor in determining match status. Moreover, the interrelated effects of education and socioeconomic status signal the need to know more about the continuing significance of class, both during and following post- secondary education.

A second conclusion of our study is that a substantial number of post-secondary graduates pursue further training after receiving their degrees, diplomas or certificates. Continuing education is obviously becoming a large part of the life course for Can- adians in general and for post-secondary graduates in particular, indicating an increasingly diverse and complex transition from school to employment. Over 37% of post- secondary graduates in our sample sought out additional vocational or other forms of adult training, including non-formal educational programmes. While we hypothesized that a greater proportion of mismatched than matched graduates will seek out vocational or other types of adult training, the results of our survey showed the reverse to be true. It appears that matched graduates have more of an opportunity to upgrade their knowledge than mismatched graduates.

At this point, we step back from the regression analyses and predictions of match


status to explore the implications of the match status distribution itself. Most of our respondents attended post-secondary institutions in the middle and late 1970s, when the transition to mass higher education had become a common part of the Canadian life course (Nobert and McDowell, 1994; Lennards, 1986). At that time, Canadian labour market policy reflected neoclassical human capital theory, which argues that people with the most ability, who exercise the most effort, and who invest most substantially in education and occupational training and upgrading, will be most successful in achieving higher status jobs. A human capital orientation had resulted in a strong message to our respondents--attaining a post-secondary education would guarantee them good jobs. Labour market policies in Canada are now more based on a human resources development paradigm, representing a shift from the neoclassical model (Erwin and MacLennan, 1994). For example, the Premier's Council in Ontario produced two reports (Premier's Council, 1988, 1990) highlighting the need for more advanced training opportunities in Ontario to position the province strategically in the changing global economy, a perspective shared in the Vision 2000 report produced by the Ontario Ministry of Colleges and Universities (1990).

The mismatch findings we reported signal a need to evaluate critically the policy view that Canadian prosperity rests on our ability to provide relevant skills. The mismatch rate in 1979 for all post-secondary graduates in our sample was 41.8%. By some eight years later, the mismatch rate had decreased significantly, yet only modestly, to 29.5%. While there are no commonly accepted norms for evaluating high, moderate or low levels of invisible underemployment, other studies of post- secondary graduates in Canada indicate comparable mismatch rates two years after graduation (Davies et al., 1994). This suggests that, over a relatively long period of time, many of our post-secondary participants encountered obstacles in finding or sustaining employment consistent with their qualifications. As we discussed earlier, that mismatch is due to an increase in the skill level of occupations, as the "skills shortage" perspective maintains, is not clear. Instead, it is reasonable to assume that the long-term mismatch rate among our highly qualified subjects was not the outcome of sharp increases in skill level requirements.

In order to render a more complete explanation of post-secondary underemployment, time-series data would be ideal. In the absence of such data, we hypothesize that changes in the number of post-secondary graduates, leading to increased competition for jobs, and the incapacity of the economy to absorb graduates are the underlying explanations for continuing high employment mismatch rates. The consequences of this trend for increased mismatch rates are revealed in results from 1988 national survey of recent college graduates working full-time. Data from this survey showed that only 58% were in jobs that required a college diploma (Goodall, 1993). Similarly, in 1979, we found that approximately 65% of college students were in full-time jobs that required a college diploma. While our study is only roughly comparable to Goodall's work, it does indicate an increasingly competitive job market. Further, many of the jobs created in Canada between 1981 and 1989 were in the service sector. While the service sector does include many of the best jobs in the economy, over 40% of service-sector employees worked in part-time, insecure, low- paying jobs that provided few challenges for growth (Krahn and Lowe, 1988).

We would argue the need for academic professionals to monitor the employment experiences of their graduates. A survey of university administrators (Anisef and Axelrod, 1993) indicated that while administrators strongly endorse the assessment of career performance among their graduates, less than a third of Ontario universities


surveyed have a system in place for monitoring graduates. Implementation of such a system would seem to be especially important in light of the changing demographic makeup of university and community college clientele. More and more post-secondary institutions are increasingly drawing upon a non-traditional student clientele (eth- nically and age diverse), who are particularly sensitive to the highly competitive labour market in which they are currently involved, or one that awaits them upon graduation, Certainly, interest in assessing graduates' employment experiences varies by faculty, department and programme, and this interest has been contingent on their resolutions of the tension between cultural and utilitarian orientations toward higher education. Sustained financial restraint has served to heighten the perceived contradiction between these values.

Administrators in universities and community colleges, policy-makers and researchers may wish to raise a number of questions around the mandate of post- secondary institutions, such as: does the responsibility for the well-being of their students end upon graduation? should institutions play a more proactive role in monitoring the employment success of its graduates and/or intervening to provide counsel to graduates who seek to improve their mismatched status? Our findings do not suggest entirely clear answers to these questions. People obtain education for more reasons than as a stepping stone to secure a particular form of employment. There are cultural orientations, for example, towards achieving a post-secondary education. Still others may enroll in post-secondary institutions because they attribute "value" to the education being offered in these institutions that goes beyond a rational calculation of the link between education and work.

In terms of educational and occupational status attainment, we need to go beyond instrumental explanations of choices people make and consider such important issues as quality of life (Bellamy, 1994). The complexity of the school-to-work transition requires researchers, post-secondary institutional administrators and policy-makers to coordinate efforts in supplying conventional and extra-institutional forms of post- secondary education.

Acknowledgements--This research was made possible by the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada under the Strategic Grants Program, Education and Work in a Changing Society. We are very grateful to Anton Turrittin for his thoughtful comments on this paper.

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174 Pau l A n i s e f et al.

A P P E N D I X

Definitions of variables jor logistic" regression

Var iab le P a r a m e t e r c o d i n g M a t h M a t c h e d = 1 M i s m a t c h e d = - 1

L o c a t i o n C i ty = 1 R u r a l / s m a l l t own = - 1

Field o f s tudy Sc ience a n d t e c h n o l o g y ( inc ludes un ivers i ty p u r e science, un ivers i ty a p p l i e d science, C A A T hea l th , a n d C A A T t e c h n o l o g y ) = 1

O t h e r fields ( includes univers i ty soc ia l sc ience, un ive r s i ty h u m a n i t i e s , C A A T appl ied ar ts , C A A T bus iness ) = - 1 E d u c a t i o n U n i v e r s i t y = 1 C A A T = -- 1 G e n d e r M a l e = 1 Fema le = - 1

SES SES l o w e r F o r lower SES SES = 1 F o r midd le SES SES = 0 F o r u p p e r SES SES = - 1

SES m i d d l e S E S = 0 SES = 1 SES = - 1

Post-secondary education and underemployment in a longitudinal study of Ontario baby boomers

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