Opportunities for Urban Innovation in India & the global South

Opportunities for Urban Innovation in India & the global South iihs

14thWinelands Conference: Innovation for an Urban AgeStellenbosch 2 April 2014

Aromar [email protected] @AromarRevi

www.iihs.co.in

mailto:[email protected]

The Global Context: 2000-2100

There is Only One Earth and its in a small corner of

the known Universe (Gagarin, Armstrong et. al. 1960s)

Present consumption requires ~2.0 worlds

21st century Population growth needs 1.5+ worlds

Ending poverty at present throughput ~2.0 worlds

Availableonly One

World

The Challenge of the 21st century Sustainability Transition

The Sustainability traverse will be largely played out in Chinese, Indian

& African cities

Design for

Resilience

Reality is more complex: punctuated by multiple Shocks

SARS

Currency crisis

Oil peak

Asian growth

El Nino

FloodDrought

Desertification

We need to design our economic and urban systems for both performance & resilience

Wall St. crash

Himalayan Glacial melt (1921-2009)

Urbanisation is not just a ‘Megatrend’

it’s a ‘Gigatrend’

a millennial transformation of human

culture, society, economy, polity &

planetary systems

The world (of large cities) in 1900

Pop:1.5 billion Urban share:13% Gross World product:~$2 trillion Urban share:~30%

Sources: UN (2011) ; Revi, A, Satterthwaithe, D , et. al. (2014) forthcoming; De Long (1998)


Pop:2.5 billion Urban share:29% Gross World product:~$7trillion Urban share:~45%

Sources: UN (2011) ; Revi, A,, Satterthwaithe, D , et. al. (2014) forthcoming; De Long (1998)


Pop:6 billion Urban share: 47% Gross World product:~$65trillion Urban share:~68%


An (urban) world in 2013*

Pop: 7 billion Urban share:~50% Gross World product:~$70 trillion Urban share:~70%

Sources: NASA, (2012), UN (2011 ; Satterthwaithe, D , Revi, A, et. al. (2014) forthcoming; De Long (1998)Sources: UN (2011) ; Revi, A, Satterthwaithe, D , et. al. (2014) forthcoming; De Long (1998)


Pop: 8 billion Urban share: 58% Gross World product:~$85trillion Urban share:~75%


The Global Urban transformation (1900-2025)

Year Global population (billions)

Urban share (%)

Gross World Product (2012 $

tr)

Urban share (%)

1900 1.5 billion ~13% $ 2 trillion ~30%

1950 2.5 billion ~29% $ 7 trillion ~45%

2000 6 billion ~47% $ 65 trillion ~68%



Sources: UN (2011) ; Revi, A, Satterthwaithe, D , et. al. (2014); De Long (1998)

Urban transformation: Shanghai (1987)

14

Photo: REUTERS

Urban transformation: Shanghai (2012)

15

Photo: REUTERS

SDSN Proposal for 10 SDGs

1. End extreme poverty including hunger

2. Achieve development within planetary boundaries

3. Ensure effective learning for all children and youth for life and

livelihood

4. Achieve gender equality, social inclusion, and human rights for

all

5. Achieve health and wellbeing at all ages

6. Improve agriculture systems and raise rural prosperity

7. Empower inclusive, productive, and resilient cities

8. Curb human-induced climate change and ensure sustainable

energy

9. Secure ecosystem services and biodiversity, and ensure good

management of water and other natural resources

10. Transform governance for sustainable development

SDSN: Proposed Urban SDG (2015-2030)

Make all cities socially inclusive, economically productive, environmentally sustainable, secure, and resilient to climate change and other risks.

Develop participatory, accountable, and effective city* governance to support rapid and equitable urban transformation.*and metropolitan region

SDSN: Three Proposed Urban SDG Targets

a. End extreme urban poverty, expand employment and

productivity, and raise living standards, especially in slums.

b. Ensure universal access to a well-designed, secure, and

affordable built environment and basic urban services

including housing; water, sanitation and waste management;

low-carbon energy and transport; and mobile and broadband

communication.

c. Ensure safe air and water quality for all, and integrate

reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, efficient land and

resource use, and climate and disaster resilience into

investments and standards.

Urban SDG Target A - Eliminate extreme urban poverty, expand employment & productivity, & raise living standards, especially

in slums & informal settlements

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Populationwith incomes

above nationalpoverty line

Population notliving in slumsand informalsettlements

WorkforceParticipation

Rate

FemaleWorkforce

ParticipationGap

Gender WageDisparity

HouseholdsavailaingBankingServices

BANGALORE

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Population withincomes above

nationalpoverty line

Population notliving in slumsand informalsettlements

WorkforceParticipation

Rate

FemaleWorkforce

ParticipationGap (approx.)

Gender WageDisparity(approx.)

HouseholdsavailaingBankingServices(approx.)

NEW YORK CITY

NOTE : Indicative #urbanSDG set (work in progress, do not cite)

Urban SDG Target B - Ensure universal access to a secure and affordable built environment & basic services: housing, water, sanitation & waste management; low-carbon energy & transportation; & communication.

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Households withaccess to safe,

sufficientdrinking water

Householdsserved by safe

sanitationservices

Households andbusinesses with

access toaffordable and

reliable low-carbon energy

Households withaccess to cell

phones

Households withaccess to internet

Population livingin adequate

housingconditions

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Households withaccess to safe,

sufficientdrinking water

Householdsserved by safe

sanitationservices

Households andbusinesses with

access toaffordable and

reliable low-carbon energy…

Households withaccess to cell

phones(approx.)

Households withaccess to internet

Population livingin adequate

housingconditions(approx.)

BANGALORE NEW YORK CITY


Urban SDG Target C - Ensure safe air & water quality for all, & integrate reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, efficient land & resource use, &

climate & disaster resilience into investments & standards

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

Quality ofDisater Risk

Management

Quality ofClimate Change

Action

Air QualityIndex (approx.)

Water QualityIndex

NormalDifferenceVegetation

Index (approx.)

Urban GreenCover

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

Quality ofDisater Risk

Management

Quality ofClimate

Change Action

Air QualityIndex

(approx.)

Water QualityIndex

NormalDifferenceVegetation

Index…

Urban GreenCover

BANGALORE NEW YORK CITY


The Dynamics of Indian Urbanisation

(1951-2031)

India’s Coming transition (2011-2031)

• India will add at least 300 million new people to its cities in the

next 30 years

• This is on top of the current urban population of ~300 million, of

whom over 70 million are poor

• In 2031, three of the ten largest megacities in the world will be in

India: Delhi, Mumbai, Kolkata

• Over 75 other cities will have a population of over 1 million

• This will be the second largest urbanisation in human history

creating huge market opportunities and development challenges

• The only option to avoid complete systemic urban breakdown is

the simultaneous transformation of India’s cities and its villages

• A wide range of technical, institutional and social innovations will

be required to enable this

1951

> 5

1 - 5

0.5 - 1

0.1 – 0.5

< 0.1

Population Size (millions)

Source: Census of India, 1971-2001; UN, 2007; IIHS analysis,

2009-10

India

W. Pakistan

E. Pakistan

Nepal

Tibet

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031

Urb

an S

ett

lem

ents

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031

Po

pu

lati

on

(in

mill

ion

s)

Kolkata(5.7)

1961

Large Urban Settlement Growth

Urban Population Growth

> 5

1 - 5

0.5 - 1

0.1 – 0.5

< 0.1



2009-10

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031

Urb

an S

ett

lem

ents

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031

Po

pu

lati

on

(in

mill

ion

s)

Kolkata(6.9)

1971

Mumbai(5.8)



> 5

1 - 5

0.5 - 1

0.1 – 0.5

< 0.1



2009-10

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031

Urb

an S

ett

lem

ents

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031

Po

pu

lati

on

(in

mill

ion

s)

Kolkata(9)

Delhi(5.6)

1981

Mumbai(8.6)



> 5

1 - 5

0.5 - 1

0.1 – 0.5

< 0.1



2009-10

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031

Urb

an S

ett

lem

ents

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031

Po

pu

lati

on

(in

mill

ion

s)

Kolkata(10.9)

Delhi(8.2)

Chennai(5.3)

1991

Mumbai(12.3)



> 5

1 - 5

0.5 - 1

0.1 – 0.5

< 0.1



2009-10

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031

Urb

an S

ett

lem

ents

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031

Po

pu

lati

on

(in

mill

ion

s)

Kolkata(13.1)

Delhi(12.4)

Chennai(6.6)

Bangalore(5.6)

Hyderabad(5.4)

2001

Mumbai(16.1)



> 5

1 - 5

0.5 - 1

0.1 – 0.5

< 0.1



2009-10

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031

Urb

an S

ett

lem

ents

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031

Po

pu

lati

on

(in

mill

ion

s)

Kolkata(15.5)

Delhi(16.9)

Chennai(7.5)

Bangalore(7.2)

Hyderabad(6.7)

Ahmedabad(5.7)

Pune(5.0)

2011

Mumbai(20)



> 5

1 - 5

0.5 - 1

0.1 – 0.5

< 0.1



2009-10

India 2011

• 3 cities with a population > 10 m and • 53 cities with > 1m

• 833 m live in 0.64 m villages• 377 m live in ~ 8,000 urban centres

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031

Urb

an S

ett

lem

ents

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031

Po

pu

lati

on

(in

mill

ion

s)

Mumbai(28.6)

Kolkata(22.3)

Delhi(24.4)

Chennai(11.1)

Bangalore(10.6)

Hyderabad(9.9)

Ahmedabad(8.5)

Pune(7.4)

Surat(6.3)

Kanpur(5.1)

2031



> 5

1 - 5

0.5 - 1

0.1 – 0.5

< 0.1



2009-10

India’s Coming transition (2011-2031)

• India will add at least 300 million new people to its cities in the

next 30 years

• This is on top of the current urban population of ~300 million, of

whom over 70 million are poor

• In 2031, three of the ten largest megacities in the world will be in

India: Delhi, Mumbai, Kolkata

• Over 75 other cities will have a population of over 1 million

• This will be the second largest urbanisation in human history

creating huge market opportunities and development challenges

• The only option to avoid complete systemic urban breakdown is

the simultaneous transformation of India’s cities and its villages

• A wide range of technical, institutional and social innovations will

be required to enable this

The challenge of contemporary Indian cities: integration of pre-colonial, colonial, ‘modern’ & informal

[35]

Distribution of Settlements by Settlement Size (1991-2011)

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Million-plus

and larger

cities

Other Class

I cities

Class II

cities

Class III

cities

Class IV, V

and VI

cities

Very large

and large

villages

Medium

sized

villages

Small

villages

Hamlets

and smaller

Pro

po

rti

on

of

all

sett

lem

en

ts (

%)

1991 2001 2011 Source: Census of India (1991-2011); IIHS Analysis

India’s long tailed settlement structure is one of its most important 21st century development opportunities

43%

37%31%

25%19%

15%12%

20%

21%

21%

20%

19%

18%

16%

17%

18%

20%

21%

22%

23%

23%

5%8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

15%

5%4%

3%

3%

3%3%

4%

3%3%

3%

3%

3%3%

4%

2%2%

2%3%

3%3%

3%

1%2%

4%6%

7%8%

10%

3% 4% 5% 6% 9% 11% 12%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011

Pro

po

rtio

n o

f A

ll In

dia

Po

pu

lati

on

(%

)

267 m.

133 m.

182 m.

618 m.

Million-plus cities (> 1m)

Other Class I cities (0.1-1m)

Class II cities (50-100,000)

Class III cities (20-50,000)

Class IV, V & VI cities (<20,000)

Very large and large villages (>5,000)

Medium sized villages (2-5,000)

Small villages (1-2,000)

Hamlets & Smaller (<1,000)

Class I C

itiesO

ther U

rban

Large Villages

Med

ium

and

Smaller V

illages

Distribution of India’s Population by Settlement Size: 1951 - 2011

Source: Census of India, 1951-2011

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Rs

Lakh

Cro

re

Rural Urban

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Per

cen

t o

f To

tal

India: Rural-Urban GDP

Rural: Urban GDP share (1970-2009)

Rural: Urban GDP fraction (1970-2009)

Early economic reforms

Early economic reforms

Phase I economic reforms

Phase II economic reforms

Phase I economic reforms

Phase II economic reforms

Close to 60% of India’s GDP comes from Urban areas

Source: National Accounts

Statistics

Top 100 Cities : 2011

Land

Population

Output

0.24%

16%

43%

India: GDP & Employment structure (2009)

The urban informal sector with a quarter of the workers produces roughly a quarter of the GDP. The urban formal sector with 5 percent of the workers produces a similar share of the GDP.

Source: NCEUS, 2009; Kannan & Raveendran (2009)

Urban Formal : 5%

Urban Informal : 25%

Rural : 70%

Urban Formal : 25%

Urban Informal : 26%

Rural : 45%

[40]

HALT REPRODUCTION OF POVERTY & INEQUALITY

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95

Rural

Caste-wise Wealth Distribution in Rural India (2002)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95

Rural

ST

SC

OBC

FC

NH

Source: Zacharias & Vakulabharanam (2011) based on All India Debt & Investment Survey, 2002-03

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95

Urban

Caste-wise Wealth Distribution in Urban India (2002)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95

Rural

ST

SC

OBC

FC

NH

Source: Zacharias & Vakulabharanam (2011) based on All India Debt & Investment Survey, 2002-03

India: the opportunity of ten simultaneous Transitions

1. Demographic transition: population stabilisation & aging

2. Health transition: infectious + lifestyle disease burden

3. Education transition: elementary secondary tertiary

4. Energy transition: oil + coal gas + renewables

5. Environmental transition: ‘brown’ + ‘grey’ + ‘green’ agendas

6. Information transition: post phone cell phone + www

7. Livelihoods transition: agrarian green + knowledge jobs

8. Economic transition: primary + secondary tertiary-led

9. Political transition: decentralised, youth and urban

10. Urban transition: rural ‘urban’

Environmental Sustainability

Social Transformation

Unified & Robust Polity

Inclusive Economic Growth

End of Poverty and Reduced Inequality

Five national Development outcomes by the 2030s

India: key barriers to Systemic Innovation

• Gender exclusion

• Caste, class & community exclusion

• Hegemony of place (of birth)

• Hollowing out of institutional capacity &

neutral places for engagement

Stylised sites of Innovation(1950 & 60s)?

StateFirm

FaithFamily

Academy

Stylised sites of Innovation(2000s) ?

StateFirm

FaithFamily

Academy

A typical ‘soft’ Indian Innovation Cycle

Survive

Adapt

Absorb

Transform

Who manages Urban India?Top Management

• MPs & MLAs 5,300

• Higher Judiciary 650

• IAS & IPS 8,200

• CXOs (top 500 corporates) ~ 5,000

• NGO leadership ~ 1,750

Total 20,900

% educated & trained in urban practice < 5%

Middle Management

• Senior Municipal officials ~ 4,000

• Senior Engineers ~ 8,000

• Urban Planners ~ 2,000

Total ~ 14,000

% educated & trained in urban practice < 20%

India’s first independent

National Research & Innovation University

focused on urban transformation

www.iihs.co.in

iihs

IIHS Core Concept

National Scale+

Interdisciplinary Excellence+

Economic & Social Inclusion =

1,00,000 professionals (Urban Practitioners) in 20 years+

Innovative Institutional design & revenue model+

National Regulation=

Transformative National Institution

Opportunities for Urban Innovation in India & the global South

Documents

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