Observations and Modeling of the 27 February 2010 Tsunami in Chile

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OBSERVATIONS AND MODELING OF THE 27 FEBRUARY 2010 TSUNAMI IN CHILE Hermann M. Fritz 1 , Costas E. Synolakis 2,3 , Catherine M. Petroff 4 , Patricio A. Catalán 5 , Rodrigo Cienfuegos 6 , Patricio Winckler 7 , Nikos Kalligeris 8 , Robert Weiss 9 , Gianina Meneses 10 , Carolina Valderas-Bermejo 10 , Carl Ebeling 11 , Athanassios Papadopoulos 8 , Manuel Contreras 12 , Rafael Almar 6 , Juan Carlos Dominguez 6 , and Sergio E. Barrientos 10 1 School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, Savannah, GA 31407, USA, [email protected] 2 Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA 90089, USA, [email protected] 3 Hellenic Center for Marine Research, 19013 Anavyssos, Greece. 4 LP4 Associates LLC, Mercer island, WA, USA [email protected] 5 Departamento de Obras Civiles, Universidad Técnica Federico Santa María, Valparaíso, Chile, [email protected] 6 Departamento de Ingeniería Hidráulica y Ambiental, Escuela de Ingeniería, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, [email protected] , [email protected] , [email protected] 7 School of Ocean Engineering, Universidad de Valparaíso, Chile, [email protected] 8 Department of Environmental Engineering, Technical University of Crete, Chanea 73100, Greece, [email protected] , [email protected] 9 Department of Geology and Geophysics, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX, USA, [email protected] 10 Departamento de Geofísica, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile, [email protected] , [email protected] , [email protected] 11 Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Northwestern University, Evanston, IL, USA, [email protected] 12 Departamento de Ingeniería Informática, Facultad de Ingeniería, Universidad de Playa Ancha, [email protected] Abstract: On February 27, 2010, a magnitude M w = 8.8 earthquake occurred off the coast of Chile’s Maule region causing substantial damage and loss of 331 Copyright ASCE 2011 Solutions to Coastal Disasters 2011 Downloaded 23 May 2012 to 98.159.211.250. Redistribution subject to ASCE license or copyright. Visit http://www.ascelib

Transcript of Observations and Modeling of the 27 February 2010 Tsunami in Chile

OBSERVATIONS AND MODELING OF THE 27 FEBRUARY 2010 TSUNAMI IN CHILE

Hermann M. Fritz1, Costas E. Synolakis2,3, Catherine M. Petroff4, Patricio A. Catalán5, Rodrigo Cienfuegos6, Patricio Winckler7, Nikos Kalligeris8, Robert Weiss9, Gianina Meneses10, Carolina Valderas-Bermejo10, Carl Ebeling11, Athanassios Papadopoulos8, Manuel Contreras12, Rafael Almar6, Juan Carlos Dominguez6, and Sergio E. Barrientos10

1 School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, Savannah, GA 31407, USA, [email protected] 2 Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA 90089, USA, [email protected] 3 Hellenic Center for Marine Research, 19013 Anavyssos, Greece. 4 LP4 Associates LLC, Mercer island, WA, USA [email protected] 5 Departamento de Obras Civiles, Universidad Técnica Federico Santa María, Valparaíso, Chile, [email protected] 6 Departamento de Ingeniería Hidráulica y Ambiental, Escuela de Ingeniería, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, [email protected], [email protected], [email protected] 7 School of Ocean Engineering, Universidad de Valparaíso, Chile, [email protected] 8 Department of Environmental Engineering, Technical University of Crete, Chanea 73100, Greece, [email protected], [email protected] 9 Department of Geology and Geophysics, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX, USA, [email protected] 10 Departamento de Geofísica, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile, [email protected], [email protected], [email protected] 11 Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Northwestern University, Evanston, IL, USA, [email protected] 12 Departamento de Ingeniería Informática, Facultad de Ingeniería, Universidad de Playa Ancha, [email protected] Abstract: On February 27, 2010, a magnitude Mw = 8.8 earthquake occurred off the coast of Chile’s Maule region causing substantial damage and loss of

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life. Ancestral tsunami knowledge from the 1960 event combined with education and evacuation exercises prompted most coastal residents to spontaneously evacuate after the earthquake. Many of the tsunami victims were tourists in coastal campgrounds. The international tsunami survey team (ITST) was deployed within days of the event and surveyed 800 km of coastline from Quintero to Mehuín and the Pacific Islands of Santa María, Mocha, Juan Fernández Archipelago, and Rapa Nui (Easter). The collected survey data include more than 400 tsunami flow depth, runup and coastal uplift measurements. The tsunami peaked with a localized runup of 29 m on a coastal bluff at Constitución. The observed runup distributions exhibit significant variations on local and regional scales.

INTRODUCTION On February 27, 2010 at 06:34:14 UTC (local time 03:34:14 am), a magnitude Mw = 8.8 earthquake occurred off the coast of Chile’s Maule region about 100 km north of Concepción (Lay et al., 2010; Delouis et al., 2010). The earthquake and tsunami caused substantial damage and loss of life along Chile’s continental coast, in the Juan Fernández Archipelago, and on Easter Island (Rapa Nui). The majority of the 521 fatalities are attributed to the earthquake, while the tsunami accounts for 124 victims concentrated in the coastal regions of Maule (69) and Biobío (33), Juan Fernández Archipelago’s Robinson Crusoe Island (18), and Mocha Island (4). During the 2010 Chile tsunami, the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center (PTWC) responded and issued warnings 5 minutes after the earthquake but, because the tsunami arrived within 30 minutes at many locations, official evacuations and warnings by local authorities were often not in place prior to the arrival of the tsunami. Fortunately, most coastal residents in Chile were aware of the tsunami risk and evacuated to high ground as a result of ancestral tsunami knowledge, regular evacuation drills and education programs (Marín et al., 2010). Most of the tsunami victims were Chilean tourists enjoying a late summer weekend and staying overnight in low lying coastal campgrounds. The February 27, 2010 Maule earthquake was the 5th largest event instrumentally recorded and filled the longest standing seismic gap in Chile. The epicenter was located in the center of the Concepción–Constitución area [35–37°S] in South Central Chile, identified as a mature seismic gap by Ruegg et al. (2009). Pre-event estimates of a potential earthquake of 8.0 < Mw < 8.5 based on the accumulated slip deficit over the past 175 years were conservative. The last large subduction-zone earthquake in this South Central Chile region occurred on February 20, 1835 (Darwin, 1851) and was of a similar estimated magnitude, close to Mw � 8.5 (Lomnitz, 1970; Beck et al., 1998). The rupture zone of the 2010 event was situated immediately to the north of the rupture zone associated with the great 1960 earthquake with Mw = 9.5 (Plafker and Savage, 1970; Kanamori, 1977; Cifuentes, 1989) and south of the rupture zones corresponding to the 1928 Talca earthquake (Beck et al., 1998) and the 1906 and 1985 Valparaiso earthquakes (Barrientos, 1995).

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POST-TSUNAMI RECONNAISSANCE The surveys took place using three integrated survey groups from March 7 to March 24, 2010 covering an 800 km stretch of South-Central Chilean coastline from Quintero to Mehuín, including Santa María Island in the Gulf of Arauco, Easter Island and Robinson Crusoe Island in the Juan Fernández Archipelago. A follow-up survey from May 21 to 23, 2010 focused on Mocha Island. Aerial reconnaissance flights were conducted between Pelluhue and the Arauco peninsula as well as over Robinson Crusoe and Mocha Islands. The survey teams documented tsunami runup, flow depth and inundation; wave induced deposition or erosion, structural damage and interviewed eyewitnesses using established protocols (Synolakis and Okal, 2005). The Chile survey data recorded 419 tsunami runup and flow depth measurements shown in Figure 1 (Fritz et al., 2011). At most locations, the tsunami arrived as sea levels passed through low-tide. Measured data were corrected for tide level at the time of tsunami arrival on the basis of tide predictions.

Figure 1. Tsunami flow depths and runup heights measured along 800 km of Chilean coastline from Quintero to Mehuín including the Islands of Santa María, Mocha, and

Robinson Crusoe (Juan Fernández Archipelago).

A significant variation in tsunami impact was observed along Chile’s mainland at both local and regional scales. The tsunami impact peaked with a localized maximum

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runup of 29 m at Constitución along a steep coastal bluff within 120 m of the shoreline situated less than 2 km south of the Maule River mouth (Figure 2a,b). Inside the Maule River estuary a river-crossing transect was measured (Figure 2c). The measurements along this transect documented a north-south gradient in the water surface across the Maule River. Fortunately the city of Constitución, situated on the southern bank, experienced relatively lower runup, but inundation still reached 500 m. Orrego Island in the middle of the river was completely submerged by the tsunami with a 10 m flow depth (Figure 2d). Dozens of campers enjoying the late summer weekend and anticipating scheduled fireworks over the island were washed away by the tsunami. Eyewitnesses described the Maule River branch between the island and the city falling dry prior to the onslaught of the tsunami. Some documentaries filmed at Constitución are available online (Discovery, 2010 and CCTV, 2010).

Figure 2. Tsunami impact at Constitución and along the Maule River: (a, b) Maximum runup of 29 m on a coastal bluff south of the Maule River mouth at Constitución; (c) Aerial view of Constitución with the Maule River mouth and Orrego Island (photo credit: Gustavo Latorre, 2010); (d) Maximum flow depth of 10 m marked by bark damage on a tree at Orrego Island.

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Offshore-capable fishing boats were washed more than 10 km up the Maule River, where trees bent upriver and eyewitness cell phone videos documented tsunami propagation at least 15 km from the river mouth. Inundation and damage occurred more than a kilometer inland along several other rivers such as at Coliumo and Tubul. To the north of Constitución the runup distribution exhibited a decaying trend with runup heights typically between 5 and 10 m exceeded only by a high point of 14 m runup on a coastal bluff within 70 m of the shoreline at Caleta de Mostazal, 35 km south of San Antonio. Further to the north, runup remained uniformly below 5 m with typical heights of 3 m in the greater Valparaíso area. Nevertheless, at Llolleo, a campground on low lying ground along a lagoon adjacent to the south of Chile’s main container terminal at San Antonio was washed away during the tsunami. Low lying coastal dunes stabilized by vegetation offered partial protection to some coastal communities such as Punta de Lobos. Variable runup heights within a 5 to 15 m range were observed between Constitución and Punta Morguilla some 300 km to the south. In a few significant cases, however, runup heights decreased below 5 m along this stretch of coastline. These included the epicentral area at Cobquecura as well as the east coasts inside the Bay of Concepción and the Gulf of Arauco. Further to the south between Punta Morguilla and Mehuín the runup remained mostly below 5m with exception of the greater Tirúa area. A 20 m runup spike was measured along a coastal bluff within 70 m of the exposed shoreline to the south of the Tirúa river mouth, while 13 m runup on nearby sand dunes along wide beaches to the north of the river are more representative. In sharp contrast to the variability in runup distribution, runup heights on Sumatra from the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami were sustained at levels and inundation distances exceeding runup spikes at Constitución or Tirúa (Borrero, 2005; Borrero et al., 2006). Throughout the affected area, eyewitnesses reported one to four main waves usually with an initial recession, which would correspond to the leading depression N-wave predicted by the model of Tadepalli and Synolakis (1994). At most locations, the first wave arrived within 30 minutes of the earthquake. Subsequent late arriving waves during the morning daylight hours after the earthquake were observed and recorded on cell phone videos by eyewitnesses on the south shores of the U-shaped and northward facing Bay of Dichato, the Bay of Concepción and the Gulf of Arauco, as well as on the north shores of bays located north of the rupture zone, such as the Bay of Quintero. These reports remain to be explained. OBSERVED COASTAL UPLIFT The coastline located south of the city of Concepción between 37°S and 38°S is particularly interesting regarding land-level changes. The Arauco peninsula is an elevated terrace with respect to the mean Chilean mainland shoreline. It shows evidences of both quaternary and modern uplift (Campos et al., 2002). Darwin (1851) reported 3 m of uplift at Santa María Island due to the 1835 earthquake. Furthermore, this area constitutes the limit between the rupture zones of the 1835 and 1960 earthquakes. As such, it might play an important role in the segmentation of the subducting slab. The 2010 Chile earthquake represents a unique opportunity to characterize the co-seismic seafloor displacements because the Arauco peninsula and both Santa María and Mocha Islands are in proximity of the rupture (Farías et al.,

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2010). Coastal uplift was measured on uplifted intertidal rocks, as well as on navigation and port infrastructure using high tide water lines and eyewitness accounts along a 100 km stretch of coastline between Tumbes and Punta Morguilla (Figure 3).

Figure 3. Arauco peninsula, Bays of Concepción and Dichato with measured tsunami runup and flow depths, as well as coastal uplift. Note: Direct comparison between flow depths of

the 2010 and 1960 tsunami at an individual residence at Talcahuano.

Uplift exceeded 3 m at Playa Quiapo and Caleta Piure located between Lebu and Punta Lavapie of the Arauco Peninsula. Santa María Island was uplifted more than 2 m. The coastal uplift during the earthquake prior to tsunami arrival reduced the tsunami impact. In the course of a few minutes, the Arauco Peninsula and Santa María Island acquired significant new land, mostly uplifted rocks and wide beaches. The uplift severely affects navigation at several fishing ports including: Punta Morguilla, Lebu, Punta Lavapie, Llico, Tubul and Santa María Island’s Puerto Norte and Puerto Sur (Figure 4). By comparison, co-seismic land level changes during the 1960 Chile earthquake ranged from 5.7 m uplift on Guamblin Island to 2.7 m subsidence in Valdivia (Plafker and Savage, 1970). Similarly part of Ranongga Island was uplifted by more than 3 m while adjacent Simbo Island subsided by 2 m

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during the April 1, 2007 Solomon Islands earthquake of Mw = 8.1 (Fritz and Kalligeris, 2008).

Figure 4. Coastal uplift and tsunami impact on navigation and fishing ports: (a) Llico with uplifted boat ramp; (b) Puerto Norte, Santa María Island with uplifted rocks as navigation

obstacles; (c) Navigation channel at Lebu with reduced depth and stranded boats due to uplift and tsunami; (d) Talcahuano with offshore-capable fishing vessel washed over the quay walls

and more than 200 m inland.

TSUNAMI OBSERVATIONS ON CHILE’S PACIFIC ISLANDS Mocha Island is a 12 km long island located 30 km off the coast of south-central Chile’s mainland near Tirúa and southwest of the Arauco Peninsula. During the past 6000 years Mocha experienced a 38 m fall in relative sea level primarily due to extremely rapid tectonic uplift recorded by 18 raised marine terraces (Nelson and Manley, 1992). Historical accounts also document uplift during the 1835 and 1960 great earthquakes. Coastal uplift was observed at Caleta La Hacienda fishing port after the 2010 event. The terraces resulting in gradual mild topographic slopes on the order of a few percent and the almost total absence of trees and large vegetation within the tsunami inundation zones made Mocha a unique location to compare tsunami runup from the 1960 and 2010 events. The Mocha Island tsunami survey circled the entire island from May 21 to 23, 2010. The tsunami runup peaked on the west side of the northern tip at more than 23 m and a maximum inundation of more than 600 m. Mocha Island is the only location where the 2010 tsunami reached a 20 m runup elevation at a 500 m inundation distance over marine terraces (Figure 5). All

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other locations with more than 20 m runup on Chile’s mainland are at steep coastal bluffs within close proximity of the shoreline such as at Constitución (Figure 2a). The forces involved during the tsunami's overland flooding are demonstrated by the deposition of a sandstone boulder, measuring 3 m in diameter, more than 250 m from the shoreline at an elevation of 15 m. The tsunami victims on Mocha Island were camping on the northern headland at a 400 m distance from the shoreline and 17 m elevation. Unfortunately the campers failed to evacuate after the earthquake and were washed away by the tsunami waves while inside their tents. Along Mocha’s east side, the runup gradually decreased and remained below 10 m on the southern half of the island. The inundation of the 1960 tsunami mostly exceeded that of the 2010 tsunami with the exception of Mocha’s north tip, penetrating more than twice as far (1.5 km) inland on Mocha’s west side (SHOA, 2000).

Figure 5. Observed tsunami impact on Chile’s Pacific Islands: (a) Isla Mocha wrackline at more than 600 m inundation; Robison Crusoe Island, Juan Fernández Archipelago: (b) total

destruction of San Juan Bautista, (c,d) flow depth measurements. The archipelago of Juan Fernández is located 670 km off the coast of Chile due west of Valparaíso. These volcanic islands are sparsely populated with 600 inhabitants

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concentrated in the coastal town of San Juan Bautista in Cumberland Bay. The first tsunami wave impacted San Juan Bautista 49 minutes after the earthquake as a relatively slow moving flood comparable to a rapid high tide, followed by a violent wave which destroyed approximately 160 houses and the majority of the public facilities. The 12 year old daughter of one of the local carabineros triggered a last minute evacuation by ringing the church bells, which constrained the death toll to 18 people in the devastated lowlands of this coastal town. Robinson Crusoe Island was surveyed on March 24, 2010. The field-survey documents a maximum runup of 18 m at an inundation distance of 300 m (Figure 5b,c,d). Some filmed details are available online (UK Channel 4, 2010). Juan Fernández had been impacted by the 1946 Aleutian tsunami, and the investigation of Okal et al. (2002) inferred runup of 2.7 m, based on descriptions of surviving eyewitnesses at the time of their survey in 2000. Rapa Nui (Easter Island) is located 3700 km off the coast of continental Chile almost due west of Juan Fernández. Rapa Nui was surveyed from March 20 to 22, 2010. The field survey results exhibited a maximum runup of 4 m. At Tongariki, the tsunami reached up to the ahu (stone platform) and flooded a nearby house, while the 1960 tsunami moved some of the moais (stone statues) scattered on the ground prior to the event and reached a runup of 6 m (SHOA, 2000). The runup during the 2010 event was smaller than the 8.6 m runup by the 1946 Aleutian tsunami at Hanga Roa (Okal et al., 2002). The 2010 tsunami runup at Easter Island was twice as large as the far field runup of 2 m at Lagunilla on Peru’s Paracas peninsula 2400 km northwest of the epicenter. The fishing village at Lagunilla was completely destroyed by a 6 m runup during the 2007 Pisco tsunami and had been rebuilt (Fritz et al., 2008). Okal et al. (2006) discuss the seismic gaps in Peru. TSUNAMI MODELING Tsunami propagation in the Pacific Ocean is simulated using the benchmarked tsunami model MOST, which solves the 2+1 non-linear shallow water equations in spherical coordinates (Titov and Gonzalez, 1997; Titov and Synolakis, 1998). Model inputs consist of bathymetry and initial conditions for tsunami propagation. Bathymetry is an extrapolated 4-arcmin's cell size grid extracted from the ETOPO 2-min global relief dataset. Computations stop at 5m depth and therefore runup on the coast is not simulated. For initial conditions the inversion model of Lorito et al. (2011) is utilized. The source area is discretized in 25x25 km sub-faults of variable slip. Static surface deformation field is computed by applying Okada's (1985) formulas for each sub-fault using the fault parameters for the “Best Model” given in supplementary table S1 in Lorito et al. (2011). The resulting deformation field is directly translated to the free water surface assuming an incompressible liquid layer overlying an elastic half-space. The final deformation field and maximum tsunami wave heights of the numerical simulation are shown in Figure 6. The model results highlight the directivity of the highest tsunami waves towards Juan Fernández and Easter Island during the transoceanic propagation.

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Figure 6. (a) Maximum estimated tsunami wave heights in the South Pacific Ocean computed using the MOST-model with key survey locations and arrival time contour lines;

(b) Souce deformation field by Lorito et al. (2011).

CONCLUSIONS The rapid deployment of the international tsunami survey team to Chile after the February 27, 2010 event resulted in the recovery of important data on the characteristics of tsunami impact in both the near and far fields, as well as information on coastal uplift. As with most near-field tsunamis, the waves struck prior to official warnings reaching coastal residents. Self-evacuations minimized the fatalities and demonstrated the pivotal importance of community-based education and awareness programs (Synolakis and Bernard, 2006; Sieh, 2006). This partial success was overshadowed by the vast majority of tsunami victims being campers and tourists, a population that is not easily reached by community-based education. Despite small areas of locally high runup, the 2010 Chile tsunami had significantly lower sustained runup heights and a substantially smaller overall impact than either the 1960 Chile or the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The survey team was supported by the National Science Foundation through the NSF RAPID award CMMI-1034886. REFERENCES Barrientos, S.E. (1995). Dual seismogenic behavior: the 1985 Central Chile

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