Needsassessmentforclimateinformationondecadaltimescales

andlongerCarolinaVera

CentrodeInvestigacionesdelMarylaAtmósfera(CIMA)FCEyN/UniversityofBuenosAires‐CONICET

BuenosAires,Argentina

With:M.Barange2,O.P:Dube3,L.Goddard4,D.Griggs5,N.Kobysheva6,E.Odada7,S.Parey8,J.

Polovina9,G.Poveda10,B.Seguin11,K.Trenberth12

2PlymouthMarineLaboratory,UnitedKingdom,3UniversityofBotswana,Botswana,4IRI/UniversityofColumbia,USA,5MonashUniversity,Australia,6VoeikovMain

GeophysicalObservatory,Russia,7UniversityofNairobi,Kenia,8ElectricitedeFrance,France,9PacificIslandsFisheriesScienceCenter/NOAA,USA,10UniversidadNacionalde

ColombiaatMedellin,Colombia,11InstitutNationaldelaRechercheAgronomique,France,12NationalCenterforAtmosphericResearch,USA.

SectorbasedAssessment

HEALTH

ENERGY

AGRICULTURE AND FOOD PRODUCTION

WATER MANAGEMENT

MARINE FISHERIES AND ECOSYSTEMS

LAND DEGRADATION AND FIRE MANAGEMENT

TRANSPORTATION

ClimateVariability&Change

PrecipitationanomaliescomputedinaboxoverthestateofColoradointheUS(FromL.GoddardandA.Greene,

IRI,USA)

“Climatechange”signal

Filteredanomaliesondecadaltimescales

Filteredanomaliesoninternnualtimescales

Observationalevidencesmakeclearthattheanthropogenicclimatechangesignalatregionallevelcanbestronglymodulatedbynaturalclimatevariations,particularlythosedrivenbythedecadalormulti‐

decadaloceanicvariability

PrecipitationanomaliesineasternArgentina:(black)lineartrend,(blue)multidecadalvariability,(red)decadal

variability.(VeraandSilvestri,2009)

PacificDecadalVariabilityInterdecadalPacificOscillation(IPO)andLFcomponentof

SOIandNiño3.4(Poweretal.2006)

(MeehlandHu2006)

PacificDecadalOscillation(PDO)IndexbasedontheleadingEOFSSTpatternforthePacificbasinnorthof20°N.(Mantua

etal.1997)

AtlanticMultidecadalOscillation

DuringwarmphasesoftheAMO,thenumbersoftropicalstormsthatmatureintoseverehurricanesismuchgreaterthanduringcoolphases,(adaptedfromGoldenbergetal,2001).

Impactodelaamoenlaprecipitacion

Tengoladezhangenfigurasposibles

WarmNorthAtlantic(+AMO)linkedto:

Enhancedrainfall,from

IndiathruSaheltoCaribbean

Decreasedrainfall,in

NortheastBrazilandtheUS

Units(cm/day)GFDLCM2.1CoupledModelsimulation(CourtesyT.Delworth)

AnnualSSTanomaliesaveragedovertheNorthAtlantic((TrenberthandShea,2006).

WaterManagementandDecadalClimateVariability

TenyearrunningmeaninflowstotheheadwatercatchmentsoftheMurrayRiverandmodelledinflowsusingPDO(McGowanet

al.2009)

RegionalindexoffloodriskinNewSouthWalesAustraliaunderpositiveandnegativeInter‐decadalPacificOscillation(IPO)phasecondition(Kiemetal.,2003)

RecentchangesinphenologyintheSouthof

FranceDATE DE DEBUT VENDANGES A CHATEAUNEUF DU PAPE depuis 1945

1‐sept

6‐sept

11‐sept

16‐sept

21‐sept

26‐sept

1‐oct

6‐oct

11‐oct

1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000Evolution des dates de début de semis du Maïs dans quatre UE

30-mars

9-avr

19-avr

29-avr

9-mai

19-mai

29-mai

8-juin

1969

1970

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1989

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2003

Année

Date

Mirecourt Colmar Le Pin Auzeville

BenoitetdelaTorre2004

BrissonetHuard2005Sitewww.avignon.inra.fr/veille_agroclimatique

Ganichot2002

Datesoffruittreeflowering

Datesofvineharvest

Datesofmaizesowing

ChangesinthedurationofthemaizecycleinTolouseascomputedwithcrop

models

AgricultureandFoodProductionandDecadalClimateVariability

EvolutionofmalariaincidenceindicesinColombia

API:ratiobetweenthenumberofcasesreportedandthepopulationatriskper10,000inhabitants,computedasthetotalofcasesofbothP.vivax(A.V.I.)andP.falciparum(A.F.I.).(Povedaetal.,2000).

HealthandDecadalClimateVariability

Temporal evolution of levels of diseaserisk in Cuba

Projected cases of acuterespiratory infections and dengue

fever for May 2004

Ortiz Bultó et al. (2006)

Marinefisheriesandecosystemsanddecadalvariability

Acloselinkhasbeenobservedbetweenbiologicalprocesses,andlarge‐scale

climatepatterns,likethePDOandNAO(Lehodeyetal.2006).

ModeledChanges in

therecruitmentsuccess in

Atlantic Coddue to a

slowdown ofthe

TermohalineCirculation

(Vikebø et al.2007)

Simulated distribution of 4–6 months old cod.The color scale indicates wet weight in

milligram.

Control

ReducedTHC

RecommendationsfromSectorBasedAssessment

Moreresearchandinvestmenttotranslatethedecadalscaleclimateinformationintothe

spatialscalesandrelevantvariablesrequiredfordecisionswillbenecessary.

Thatmustinclude…

Tofacilitateeffectiveuseofclimateinformationondecadaltimescalesindecision‐makingprocesses:

Improvedknowledgeofthemulti‐scalenatureofthefullrangeofclimatevariability,inwhichdecadalvariationis

embeddedandincludingclimate‐changetrend,impactingonaspecificsocio‐economicsector.

RecommendationsfromSectorBasedAssessment

NormalizedstreamflowanomaliesofParaguay‐ParanaRiversinSouthAmerica(RobertonandMechoso

1998)

ExtremeHeatWaveSummer2003Europe>50,000deaths

Developmentofquantitativeclimateinformationondecadaltimescalesforawiderangeofvariables.

RecommendationsfromSectorBasedAssessment

Projectedchangesofthehydropowergenerationpotential(%)bymid‐21stcenturyfromCMIP3models.

Energy power generation(thermoelectric, nuclear, hydro power stations, wind

turbines)Tailored climate product Impacts, threats

Daily air humiditydistribution and dust stormprobability

Operating irregularity ofcooling water ponds

95 and 99% quantiles ofdaily and monthlyprecipitation sums

Power supply change:-sterile spill;-drawdown lower thanheadwater elevation-power underruns

Mean wind speed; calms,rated and storm wind speedprobability

Estimation of the windturbines resource potential

(Voeikov Main Geophysical Observatory)

• Manysectorsasenergydemandplanning,hydrologicpredictions,etc.requirethedeterminationofaclimatebaseline.

• Untilrecently,thisbaselinethatistherepresentationofclimatologically“normal”conditionsforacertainareawasconstructedfromhistoricalinformationofthelastdecades.Butthatstationaryinformationmayresultanunrepresentativesample.

• Reliableestimationsofnearfuturebaselineconditionsareurgent.Decadalpredictionsmightbeanappropriatetooltocombinerecentobservationsandpossiblefutureconditions.

NEEDFORRELIABLEBASELINECLIMATECONDITIONS

Maximum summer daily temperature &Trends

1960-2003

1970-2003

S. Parey,EDF

Characterizationoftheuncertaintiesassociatedwithdecadal‐scaleclimatepredictionsincludingproperlyaccountingfor

thoseaspectsthatareandarenotpredictable.

RecommendationsfromSectorBasedAssessment

SpatialdistributionandtemporalevolutionoftheleadingpatternofLow‐frequencyrainfallvariabilityfromobservationsandGFDLCM2.1modelsimulations(ZhangandDelworth,2006)

Modeluncertainty

Tailoringofthelargerscaleinformationondecadal‐scaleclimatevariabilityandchangetolocalscales,whichwill

oftenneedtobesiteand/orproblemspecific

RecommendationsfromSectorBasedAssessment

From APECClimate Centre

Seasonal prediction of precipitation anomalies

Probabilistic Fields

Probabilistic fields at regional scales

RecommendationsfromSectorBasedAssessment

• Maintainingandsustainingtheglobalclimateobservingsystemandparticularlyinleastdevelopedregionsisessential.

• Enhancementoftheglobaloceanobservingsystemisnecessaryforitsfundamentalroleindecadalpredictionsystems.

• Waystoassemble,quality‐check,reprocessandreanalyzedatasetsrelevanttodecadalpredictionshouldbespecificallyaddressed.

• IPCCAR4demonstratesshortcominginmanyclimaterecords,especiallythosefromspace.Coordinationamongthemajorspaceagenciesishighlydesirabletoagreeonalgorithmsandcalibrationprocedures.

Besidesthevaluethatdecadalpredictionoutputsmayadd,valuable

climateinformationcanstillbeextractedfromobservations.

OBSERVATIONNEEDSRegional‐to‐localscaleverification

workofthedecadalpredictionsmustbepursued.

Surfacechlorophyllclimatology(witholigotrophicgyresinblack)

fromSeawiFS

Needsformoreandsustainedoceanobservations

NPacific

SPacific

NAtlantic

SAtlantic

Polovinaetal.(2008,GRL)

Trends of the area of thesubtropical gyres expanding

in 4 major oceans

Buildingeffectingpartnershipsystemslinkingstakeholders,usersanddecisionmakingsectors,andclimateinformationproviders(including

thoseinclimateprediction,climateobservationsandanalysisaswellasoperationalclimate

sectors),iscrucial.

RecommendationsfromSectorBasedAssessment

(AdaptedfromTrenberth2008)

Systemsbuildingoninterdisciplinary(fromsocialtoclimatesciences)andtrans‐sector(fromstakeholderstoresearchers)arethewaytoprovidetheclimateinformationthatcanbeeffectivelyusedbythe

differentsocietysectors

• Theassessmentofthesocietalneedsforclimateinformationondecadaltimescalesconfirmsitsrelevanceasapotentialdriverinsectordecisionmaking.Thisdriverwouldbepresentevenintheabsenceofthehumanimpactonclimate.

• Gapsbetweenthecurrentprovisionofthedecadal‐scaleclimateinformationandsocietalneedsarelarge.Theassessmenthasallowedtheidentificationoffundamentalissuesthatneedtobeaddressedinordertofacilitatetheeffectiveuseofclimateinformationondecadaltimescalesinthedecision‐makingprocesses.

• Therecommendationsdescribedbefore,mightnotonlyberestrictedtotheuseofclimateinformationondecadaltimescales.Theyarelikelytobesimilartothoserelatedwiththeclimateinformationneedsintheseasonaltointerannualbandaswellasinthelong‐termclimatechange.

• Infact,manyofthelessonsalreadylearnedbytheexperienceintheuseofseasonal‐to‐interannualclimatevariabilityinformationneedtobe‘re‐learned’bymuchofthe(shortandlong‐term)climatechangecommunity.Abetterappreciationof‘learningfromclimatevariabilitytomanageclimatechange’wouldbebeneficial.

CONCLUDINGREMARKS