Master’s thesis

Rohingya Conflict: Myanmar’s Neighboring

Countries Geopolitics

Author: Dewan Nashia Faria

Supervisor: Daniel Silander

Subject: Political Science

Level: Advanced

Course code: 5SK30E

Acknowledgement

Firstly, I would like to thank my supervisor Daniel Silander and my course coordinator Henrik

Enroth, without their assistance and help it was not possible for me to complete my thesis. My

supervisor’s professional advice drives my work at a higher level. In addition, my course

coordinator was very cooperative. I always found him beside me whenever I needed him.

Secondly, I am grateful to my friend Niazul Islam for his comments and support. Finally, I want

to thank all my other friends and fellow classmates. For giving me good advice throughout the

time of my course.

Special thanks to my father and husband who always encourage and support me during my

studies.

Abstract

This study explores a less talked issue, which is the geopolitical interests of China and India,

concerning the Rohingya conflict. These two countries share a large area of their land border

with Myanmar and supporting Myanmar's authoritative military regime for years. The study

argues that the Rohingya conflict is not simply a racial or ethnic conflict between the Buddhist

majority of the country and Rohingya Muslims, rather the geopolitical interest of the neighboring

countries and the military regime's economic interest worsen the situation, and one of the main

reasons for the Rohingya ethnic cleansing mission. Thus, the study concludes with the notion

that, without understanding the geopolitical picture of South and East Asia, it is not possible to

analyze the root causes of the Rohingya conflict and suggest solutions for repatriation of the

Rohingya community.

Keywords: Rohingya ethnic cleansing, the geopolitics of the Rohingya conflict, Myanmar’s

military, Rohingya conflict, Structural violence, realism, imperialism.

Table of Contents Table of Contents .......................................................................................................................................... 3

1. Introduction .......................................................................................................................................... 1

1.1 Research questions ......................................................................................................................... 2

1.2 Structure of the thesis .................................................................................................................... 2

2. Historical Background ........................................................................................................................... 3

2.1 Who are Rohingya ........................................................................................................................... 3

2.2 Colonial History ............................................................................................................................... 4

2.3 Historical account of Rohingya ethnic cleansing ............................................................................ 5

3. Literature Review .................................................................................................................................. 6

4. Theoretical framework ......................................................................................................................... 8

4.1 Principles of realism ........................................................................................................................ 8

4.2 Classical realism ............................................................................................................................ 10

4.3 Neorealism .................................................................................................................................... 10

4.4 Theoretical arguments .................................................................................................................. 11

5. Method ............................................................................................................................................... 12

5.1 Data source ................................................................................................................................... 12

5.2 Textual analysis ............................................................................................................................. 13

5.3 Theoretical Analysis ...................................................................................................................... 13

5.4 Limitation ...................................................................................................................................... 13

6. Empirical Analysis ................................................................................................................................ 14

6.1 China's geopolitical interest in Myanmar ..................................................................................... 14

6.2 India’s geopolitical interest ........................................................................................................... 20

7. Discussion............................................................................................................................................ 29

8. Conclusion ........................................................................................................................................... 33

9. Reference ............................................................................................................................................ 34

List of Figures

Figure 1 Kyaukphyu deep see port page 16

Figure 2 The proposed road connection is part of China’s belt and road initiative page 20

Figure 3 Kaladada project road page 23

Figure 4 Kaladan project planned route page 25

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1. Introduction

Rohingya, an Indo-Aryan ethnic group of Myanmar, is often considered the world's most

persecuted minority. Rohingya people are primarily Muslim, and most of them reside in the

Rakhine State on Myanmar's western coast. Due to the Myanmar government's systematic and

inhumane oppression, including mass killing, rape, and burning of villages against them, around

1.1 million Rohingya refugees have been compelled to live in Bangladesh, fleeing Myanmar

(Shahid, 2019). More than 723,000 Rohingya have migrated to Bangladesh since 25 August

2017 exclusively, according to the UN Refugee Agency UNHCR (Blakemore, 2019). United

Nations, human rights chief identifies the Rohingya genocide as a "textbook example of ethnic

cleansing" (BBC, 2020).

Though the humanitarian crisis of the Rohingya community has drawn the attention of world

leaders, no significant efforts have been seen to make the situation better yet. Bangladesh is a

small country with a vast population carrying the burden of Rohingya refugees on humanitarian

grounds, but this cannot be the permanent solution for Rohingya refugees.

The problem started with the hostile attitude the Myanmar government has been nurturing for

decades towards Rohingya rooted in plenty of ethnoreligious, historical and economic

backgrounds. The Myanmar government identifies all Rohingya community members as illegal

immigrants from Bangladesh though Rohingya people have been living in Myanmar for ages.

With the execution of the Citizenship Law in 1982, all forms of citizenship, including full,

associate, and naturalized, were snatched away from Rohingya (Haque, 2017, p.32).

The Myanmar government carries out crackdowns on Rohingya from time to time, claiming

them illegal aliens, leading the lion's share of them to the stateless position. The Rohingya, who

are still in Myanmar, are wretched due to systematic discrimination and oppression.

In this study I like to examine how the geopolitical interest of India and China neighboring

fueling the Rohingya conflict and aggravating the situation. With this objective the study aims to

find the geopolitical interest of India and China in relations to the Rohingya conflict. The study

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argues that India and Myanmar are supporting the Myanmar Military regime and ethnic

cleansing of the Rohingya communities because of their national interest, which is part of the

geopolitics of the region.

1.1 Research questions

1. Why India and China are supporting Myanmar’s military regime in the Rohingya

conflict?

2. What are the geopolitical interests of India and China in the Rakhine state, Myanmar,

concerning the Rohingya conflict?

1.2 Structure of the thesis

The second chapter contains the historical account of the Rohingya community and a summary

of the Rohingya ethnic cleansing. The third chapter presents a literature review. The fourth

chapter of the study discussed the study's theoretical perspectives. The fifth chapter describes the

study's methodology, where I have discussed what method, I have followed in conducting the

study. The sixth chapter shows the study's empirical analysis and the finding of my research. The

seventh chapter discusses my findings which I labeled as discussion. The study ends with a

concluding chapter in chapter eight.

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2. Historical Background

2.1 Who are Rohingya

Rohingya is a predominantly Muslim community that lives mainly in the northern Rakhine State,

situated in the western part of Myanmar. The Rakhine State was known as Arakan in the past,

and the old name of Myanmar was Burma. Rakhine state was an independent inshore empire of

Burma that lost its freedom to the Burmese Empire in 1784.According to the traditional belief of

Myanmar, the Rohingya, which means the Arakanese people, have been living in Arakan since

3000 BCE. But this claim is not strong because of not have any robust archaeological or

historical background (Topich&Leitich, 2013).

However, even the history of Rohingya is not so old, but the proof and evidence back up the

existence of the Rohingya community in Myanmar for centuries. The emergence of the Rohingya

community most probably took place in the 7th to 8th century in Arakan. Muslim settlers are an

integral part of the Rohingya population. Still, Rohingya conformed in Myanmar in the 9th

century before the arrival of Muslims (Hossain, 2020, p. 868). Initially, the Middle East's

Muslim settlers came to Arakan State and started to settle here and marry local women.

Rohingya naturally mixed with people of different ethnicities, including Bengalis, Turks,

Moguls, and Persians, which reveals the pluralistic demography of the Rohingya community's

formulation at the Rakhine state (Albert, 2018). Thus, Chittagongian, Burmese, Indian, Bengali,

Mid Asia, Southeastern Asian people, and local Arakanese and middle eastern settlers of Arakan

get titled Rohingya.

It is reported that Muslim heads and students at that time's North Arakan initiated using the term

Rohingya in the 1950s to affirm a different ethnoreligious identity for the territory's Muslim

community, which is separate from its majority Buddhist population known as Rakhine. (Leider,

2018, p.8).

Arabic word Rahm which means mercy in English is the origin of the word "Rohingya".

Referring to a myth, Arab traders arrived on the shores of Ramree Island in the 18th century as

their ship was wrecked, and the survivors sought Rahm from the local king. The king gave lands

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to them to settle, and over the course of the time, Rahm altered into Rhohang and gradually to

Rohingya (Chowdhury, 2006). There are two other explanations for the term "Rohingya". The

first one says this word has come from the Ruha people who migrated from Afghanistan to

Rakhine. The second one tells the "Roh" of the word "Rohingya", which means 'mountain' in

Sanskrit, which is why Rakhine people are called Rohingya. The area full of mountains located

in northwest India was known as Roh in history. (Mohajan, 2018, p.26-27) So, the inhabitants of

that area are called Rohingya.

2.2 Colonial History

The Myanmar government always holds an anti-Rohingya sentiment due to their demand for

sovereignty and autonomy deepened during World War II. During World War II, the Rohingya

and Burma Independent Army (BIA) supported the two opposite parties. Rohingya took the side

of British forces, and the BIA under Aung San supported Japan.

The British lost control over Burma in 1942 due to the Japanese invasion. Japan made Burma a

colony with their supported government, and Aung San started to work as Minister of Defense in

favor of Japan (Zahed, 2021, p.442).

The Japanese military trained the Burmese army, and they implemented genocide in 1942 against

the Rohingya people for taking vengeance for the loyalty of Rohingya towards Britain. The

genocide resulted in the murder of thousands of Rohingya and the departure of many people to

Chittagong of East Bengal, which is now Bangladesh.

However, the British force and 'Vforce' of the Rohingya again conquered the Arakan in 1944,

and whenever Aung San understood Japan would not grant independence of Burma, Burma also

turned against the Japanese and took the side of Britain in March 1945 (Zahed, 2021, p.442).

The British and the Burmese, rejected by Japan, promised the Rohingya a separate region of

northern Arakan but never fulfilled their promise. In this circumstance, when partition of India

based on religions was in the process, the representatives of Rohingya leaders met the All-India

Muslim League leader Muhammad Ali Jinnah in July 1947. They requested Rakhine's adjoining

to East Pakistan. But they preferred to form their own sovereign territory with the help of Ali

Jinnah. Jinnah refused their proposal and assured General Aung San, founder of the Myanmar

armed forces, about merging the Rohingya into Burma. So, with the hope of turning Arakan into

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a free Muslim State under the Burma government, an armed Mujahedeen group was created in

1947 led by Jafar Hussain Kawal.

The rebel group took control of northern Arakan. To suppress the rebels, the Burma government

executed a military operation in 1954 and killed and jailed many members of the Mujahideen

group.In 1962, all dreams of autonomy for Muslims were shattered by Ne Win's military coup.

(Zahed, 2021, p.443).

2.3 Historical account of Rohingya ethnic cleansing

The Myanmar military, known as, ‘Tatmadaw’ carried out operation ‘Dragon King’, named

initially as Operation ‘Nagamine’, in 1978. Brutal violence, persecution, and mass arrests caused

around 200,000 Rohingya to flee across the border to Bangladesh (ASHEN, 2016).

The Tatmadaw executed another operation in 1991-1992 under the military junta known as

‘Operation Clean and Beautiful Nation, officially titled Operation PyiThaya’. Wiping out the so-

called immigrants was the motive of this operation in Northern Rakhine State, which resulted in

the displacement of around 250000 Rohingya civilians (ASHEN, 2016).

In 2012, 90,000 Rohingya people were displaced again due to Rakhine State riots where ethnic

Rakhine Buddhists and Rohingya Muslims collided. The police and army eventually took part in

the riots, and the situation transformed into persecution against Rohingya (Toronto Star, 2012).

The last mass exodus of Rohingya people occurred in 2017 when Myanmar military and

Buddhist mobs burned their villages and attacked and killed civilians in response to Rohingya

Arsa militants' attacks on more than 30 police posts, causing the migration of more than 723,000

Rohingya in Bangladesh (Blakemore, 2019).

Being an ethnoreligious minority is usually blamed for this oppression and ethnic cleansing

against Rohingya. Of course, it is one of the most prominent reasons. But there are some other

significant reasons behind this systematic oppression, and it is high time we shed light on the

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3. Literature Review

China has been a close regional friend of Myanmar for years. In the article, “Motives and Rivalry

of Superpower Countries: The United States and China in Rohingya Humanitarian Crisis,”

Ismail has stated how China wants Myanmar and Bangladesh to address the Rohingya issue

through bilateral arrangements rather than overlooking the West’s influence. Beijing has offered

a three-step solution to the Rohingya displacement crisis, which involved long-term development

in the region. The current standpoint in the China Rohingya repatriation process has inefficient

diplomatic pressure from Beijing on Naypyitaw to initiate repatriation. When the Rohingya crisis

just emerged, Myanmar’s relations with the West and its need for protection in the UN Security

Council were strengthened by China’s position (Ismail, 2018, p. 109).

Both China and the US are two countries that are active in resolving the Rohingya humanitarian

conflict. The US and several developed countries vehemently opposed and imposed economic

sanctions on Myanmar. The US regretted Myanmar’s foreign policy change under Suu Kyi,

closer to the US during President Obama. United States offered a resolution by bringing the

Rohingya humanitarian crisis case to the UNSC. The US hopes to disrupt Myanmar’s conducive

conditions following China’s expectations and block China’s regional supremacy in the Asian

region (Ismail, 2018, p. 116).

However, this was opposed by China. China felt that this is a preventive measure taken by the

Myanmar government to protect its sovereignty from the Rohingya rebels. China uses resolution

for the Rohingya crisis through peaceful means since China wants to cover a similar problem in

its region, which occurred to Uighur Muslims in Xinjiang. China failed to banish the issue of the

Rohingya crisis to The United Nations Security Council (UNSC). Several countries urged the

UN to take the initiative to form a Fact-Finding Team (FFT) to see the actual conditions in

Rakhine (Ismail,2018, p. 114).

This paper highlights how the abundance of oil and natural gas reserves in Rakhine seemed to

make the Rakhine region a site of ‘struggle’ for the two countries. The actual scenario is that the

world’s cruelty in the Rakhine region results from the inter-imperialist capitalist US and the

Chinese government. Both the country aims to pursue their interests to resolve the crisis.

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The article “China, India, and Myanmar: Playing Rohingya Roulette?” the geopolitical sense and

the geo economy strategic significance of Myanmar for China and India were the focused on this

article. Before its independence in 1949, China used Burma Road for the movement of weapons.

After independence, China’s foreign policy was influenced by Myanmar, which included access

to the Indian Ocean, energy security, border stability, and bilateral economic cooperation. In

contrast, Indian governments endeavored to expand their influence in Myanmar to protect their

national interests.

The policymakers of both the countries had some similar notions toward Myanmar, but there

were also significant differences in content and results. In this article, we see the objectives,

scope, characteristics, process, and effects of the policies of China and India. It demonstrates the

influence of China and India in Myanmar and the trend of their relations with Myanmar.

China has plans in Myanmar as part of its Belt and Road Initiative, which connecting landlocked

Yunnan comprise as multi-billion-dollar China-Myanmar Economic Corridor. Nevertheless,

China is Myanmar’s most important international trade and investment partner. Chine also

executed projects in Myanmar’s private-sector in the large from state-to-state infrastructure.

2000 km long border with China’s Yunan is shared by Myanmar, which is strategically

significant to China as it connects with Southeast Asia, South Asia, and the Indian and Pacific

Oceans. It signifies the strategic security issue of China in Asia (Taufiq, 2019, p. 82).

On the other hand, India had built the 160 km India-Myanmar Friendship Road, included in the

India-Myanmar-Thailand Highway. India made a 450km pipeline as part of the shift to a gas-

based economy. Moreover, India has trained Myanmar military officers in the medical, air force,

and naval fields. India considers Myanmar a key ally in maintaining Northeast India’s security

and stability. New Delhi’s new “Act East” is to curb China’s growing influence in Southeast

Asia and the Bay of Bengal (Taufiq, 2019, p. 86).

China is gradually taking a more proactive role in ensuring that these projects are better

regulated and beneficial to Myanmar’s economy and people.

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4. Theoretical framework

Realism is defined as the pessimistic outlook of human nature which means it discusses the

negative sides of human nature. Realism was developed by the famous realist Hans Morgenthau.

Realism is recognized as one of the most important terms in international relations. In

international relations, it is identified as a tactic for the learning and practice of international

politics. Realism arose during the mid-20th century. It initiated as a serious arena of study in the

United States during and after World War II (Bell, 2021).

Realism is also considered political realism. Realism accentuates the role of the nation-state. It

creates an extensive hypothesis that all nation-states are encouraged by national interests.

Realism or realists theory includes the assessment of the economical and conflictual sides of

international relations. According to realism, the nation-state acts as the prime actor in

international relations.Realists have faith in the fact that there are no widespread doctrines with

which all countries may conduct their activities. They believe that a state must be aware of the

actions of the states around it all the time. The country must practice a realistic method to resolve

difficulties as they arise. This realism theory discusses three concepts like national interests,

national power, and national security. Every state’s preliminary objective is to fulfill its national

interests. National interest in international relations involves the rights, purposes, goals,

demands, as well as interests that a nation-state always efforts to preserve, defend, and save in

addition to secure associations with other nation-states. National Power in international relations

refers to the capability or competence of a nation-state to protect its goals and purposes. National

power helps in securing the national interests of a nation. National security in international

relations is defined as the prerequisite to upholding the continued existence of the state through

the use of financial power, diplomacy, power forecast, as well as political power (Cristol, 2020).

4.1 Principles of realism

Morgenthau has been given six principles of political realism. These are:

• Politics is administered by Objective Laws that have ancestries in Human Nature

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This principle helps learners to understand objective laws and international politics. Using this

principle a nation can express a rational theory of International Politics.

• National Interest is demarcated based on National Power

This principle is defined as the master key and core principle of Morgenthau’s Realism.

According to this principle, national power always tries to secure the goals of the national

interests of a nation. National interests and national power both act as the determining factors of

foreign policy.

• Interest is continuously vibrant

According to this principle, the interest of a country alterations with changes in the political and

societal environs. This interest is vibrant. A country must have to analyze this interest for

examining the policies and actions of that country.

• Abstract Moral Principles cannot be implemented in Politics.

According to this principle, Morality is significant but worldwide moral principles cannot be

applied to the activities of countries.

• The variance between Ethical Objectives of a Nation and the Universal Ethical

Principles.

Political realism accepts that moral laws govern the world. But the government of a country can’t

use these laws in their internal actions. The policies of a nation are different from universal

ethical principles. The national interest of a country is also different from universally applied

moral principles.

• The sovereignty of Global Political affairs.

Morgenthau's Political Realism agrees to take the independence of Global Politics as a

discipline. Morgenthau has stated that a political realist at all times thinks based on interest

demarcated as power. The political realist thinks like an economist about the interest which is

defined as wealth. The realist also thinks as the lawyer, of the conventionality of accomplishment

with authorized rules, as well as the philosopher, of the conventionality of action with ethical

doctrines (Morgenthau, 2006).

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4.2 Classical realism

Classical Realism is a category of realism. Classical realism contends that all countries search for

power, which is determined by an aspiration to attain national interests. Power includes

enhancing internal development by enhancing the economic system, technological system,

diplomatic as well as military means. Classical realists consider human nature as the most

important form of elucidation of the international system. Classical realist theory clarifies global

associations through suppositions about human nature. One of the suppositions includes that

Individuals are barely egotistic as well as morally faulty. Another one is that these individuals

cannot get rid of the corrupt circumstance that they are born to watch out for themselves (Peter,

2015).

4.3 Neorealism

Neorealism is also recognized as structural realism. Neorealism has been defined as a theory of

global relations. This theory highlights the role of power in political affairs in global

relationships. This theory understands rivalry and war as continuing structures. This theory also

understands the partial perspective for collaboration. There are some essential neo-realist

suppositions. The first one is that countries are unitary, functionally akin actors. They act as the

only significant performers in global politics. The second one is that the global system is

regarded as anarchy. The third assumption includes that the dissemination of power

competencies is the foremost, system-level variable to elucidate national actions. One of the

examples of neorealism can be the geopolitical interest of India in Myanmar. Myanmar is full of

natural resources and is the only gateway to connecting India with Southeast Asia. This

connection will help India in fulfilling its national interest. India helps Myanmar in deporting

Rohingyas from the Rakhine state where a deep seaport is going to be established. India is

helping Myanmar in establishing the port. China also possesses a great geopolitical interest in

Myanmar (Rahman, 2019).

Despite the differences of the Classicaland Neoclassical realism there are similarities in the

principles. The foundation of the realist theory relies on three, ‘S’, Statism, Survival, and self-

help. (Dunne & Schmidt, 2020, p. 138)

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Statism

According to this, the State is the prime actor in international politics and holds much power, the

state competes with other states for power and security.

Survival

The second principle is the survival of the state. In the anarchic world system, all states focus on

surviving from different odds of the world. According to this view, the state will try to gain as

much power as possible and will try to gain a hegemonic position in international politics. In this

regard Henry Kissinger said, a nation’s survival is its first and ultimate responsibility, it cannot

be compromised or put to risk’ (Dunne & Schmidt, 2020, p. 140).

Self-help

There is no higher authority in the international system, and a state must rely on its self-help for

security. A state must rely on its own security and work to achieve its own security. (Dunne &

Schmidt, 2020, p. 140)

4.4 Theoretical arguments

This study will examine the geopolitical interest of India and China with the principle of the

international realist theory. Though millions of Rohingya were persecuted by Myanmar’s

military, India, the biggest democratic country of the world, and China supported the

authoritative military regime. One of the core arguments of the realist theory is that the state will

first look for its interest and security. In the case of the Rohingya conflict, India and China’s

concern is for their national interests and security rather than the protection of the millions of

Rohingya.

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5. Method

This study is qualitative in nature. To examine the Rohingya conflict, this study will utilize a

case study research method. According to Yin, when the research question tries to find out ‘why

and how social phenomena’ occurred, the more it tends to be a case study research method. He

described that the case study research method tends to find out in-depth studies of the recent

social phenomenon(Yin, 2018, p 33). There are other definitions of the case study research

method.

According to Verschuren,“A case study is a research strategy that can be qualified as holistic in

nature, following an iterative-parallel way of proceeding, looking at only a few strategically

selected cases, observed in their natural context in an open-ended way, explicitly avoiding (all

variants of) tunnel vision, making use of analytical comparison of cases or sub-cases, and aimed

at description and explanation of complex and entangled group attributes, patterns, structures or

processes.” (Verschuren 2003, p. 137). Dul and Hakdescribe, ‘A case study is a study in which

(a) one case (single case study) or a small number of cases (comparative case study) in their real-

life context are selected, and (b) scores obtained from these cases are analyzed in a qualitative

manner (Dul and Hak 2008, p. 4)’. In addition, Gilham tells, ‘A case can be an individual; it can

be a group – such as a family, or a class, or an office, or a hospital ward; it can be an institution –

such as a school or a children’s home, or a factory; it can be a large-scale community – a town,

an industry, a profession. All of these are single cases; but you can also study multiple cases: a

number of single parents; several schools; two different professions. (Gillham 2000, p. 1,).

Considering the earlier discussion, this study finds qualitative case studies research method will

be appropriate for the present study.

5.1 Data source

The study relies on secondary data sources. Data has been gathered from various books and

journals. BBC, Aljazeera, research journal’s articles, National dailies of Bangladesh and Burma,

UN reports have been used for data collection. I have also collected data from different websites

which are reliable. National Geography, CNN, Reuters websites are used as data sources. All the

data has been cross checked with other sources to maintain the rigor of the research.

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5.2 Textual analysis

The study employs textual analysis to analyze the data. As per Mckee textual analysis method

can be considered most effective method for researchers of information gathering and

understanding how other human race make sense of the earth. To them it is a data collecting

process under which the researchers try to understand various cultures and subcultures where the

member of the community makes meanings of their existence and how they fit into the society

where they reside (McKee, 2003, p. 1). Thus, with the help of textual analysis, we can

understand how people lived in a society, what their ideas were and how they are represented in

the texts. In addition, he asserts that there are various methods of interpreting text and there is

not only one ‘correct’ methodology to collect information from text. It depends on how we view

the world from our own positions. The same text can be possible to interpret in various ways to

answer the same question (Mckee, 2003, P. 2).

5.3 Theoretical Analysis

According to the realist theory discussed earlier there are four principals

a) The international system is anarchic

b) States run by its own interest

c) The primary concern of a state is its own self-interest.

For the defense of own country, the state develops its own military, which later creates a security

dilemma. Moreover, one of the key aspects of realist theory is national security (waltz,

1988). Having the core concept of the realist theory in mind, here I will try to examine the

geopolitical interest of the Rohingya conflict.

5.4 Limitation

Though in the study I have tried to follow the triangulation method to validate the data, however,

I cannot say that all the data are free of biases of the actual author. In a same event diverse ways

can be found based on different text and all of them can be as truthful and accurate as each other.

If all we say of them is ‘accurate’ or ‘inaccurate’, then we never get to the interesting part of the

analysis of how these texts tell their stories, how they represent the world and how they make

sense of it (Mckee, 2003, p.18). Moreover, the geopolitical interest is a vast issue which is not

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easy to express in a short period of time and space, therefore there are gaps in the information in

the study. However, I have tried to present a neutral picture of the issue.

6. Empirical Analysis

6.1 China's geopolitical interest in Myanmar

China is the second-largest country in Asia and Myanmaris one of the most resourceful countries

in Southeast Asia. China and Myanmar both are neighboring countries. China and Myanmar both

share an international border. The name of the border is Chin Shwe Haw-Laukkai border. This

border connects China to Kokang of Myanmar. This border is used for trading purposes between

the two countries. There is a treaty and diplomatic friendship between the Peoples’ Republic of

China and Myanmar. Myanmar was the first country that declare China an independent country

in 1949. The treaty relationship was established strongly in 1954. In 2020, the age of this treaty

friendship turned 70. Both the neighboring countries also maintain a bilateral relationship. China

is the biggest trading partner of Myanmar(Than, 2003).

National Interest of China

China and Myanmar call each other "Paukphaw". Paukphaw means Siblings. China is recognized

as the biggest investor in Myanmar. China has always sustained good impetus for high-level

connection and solid political mutual trust with Myanmar. The China-Myanmar relationship was

established on five principles of Peaceful Coexistence. These five principles include

• Mutual esteem for independence and regional integrity

• Mutual non-aggression

• Non-interference in each other's internal affairs

• Equal opportunity and mutual profit

• Peaceful coexistence (Asia Pacific , 2020).

The neighboring countries have made several agreements for extending the bilateral trades.

These are the Oil and natural gas pipelines connection project, SEZ and Deep-Sea port in

Kyaukphyu and China Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC), etc.

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Shwe Gas Project (Oil and natural gas pipelines connection project)

China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) and Myanma Oil and Gas Enterprise (MOGE)

worked cooperatively to establish the “Shwe Gas Project”. There were four more companies

such as Daewoo Group of South Korea, OCEBV from India, Korea Gas Corporation (KOGAS),

and Gas Authority of India Limited (GAIL) that worked on this project. "The Shwe Gas Project"

supplies the natural gas in the Myanmar-China gas pipeline. The starting point of the oil and gas

pipelines is in the Rakhine state’s Kyaukphyu and the endpoint of the link is in Yunnan

province’s Kunming. Yunnan province is situated in China and Rakhine state is situated in

Myanmar. The routes of the pipeline passage are Rakhine State, Camaguey Province, Mandalay

Province, and Shan State in Myanmar and the entry of China is Ruili. There is a deep-water port

in Kyaukphyu beside the Bay of Bengal. The oil and gas pipeline project is also known as Sino-

Burma Pipelines. The CNPC of China and MOGE of Myanmar discussed this Sino-Burma

Pipeline project in 2004. In 2005, Petro-China, the parent company of CNPC offered a deal to

the Myanmar government about buying natural gas over 30 years. Myanmar's government

agreed to the proposal and Petro-China signed a deal with Myanmar. In March 2009, China and

Myanmar contracted an agreement. The agreement was about constructing a natural gas pipeline.

And in June of the same year, the two countries signed a contract to construct a crude oil

pipeline. The two countries arranged an inauguration program on 31 October 2009 on Maday

Island before starting work. The Myanmar government completed its work on constructing the

gas pipeline on 12 June 2013. They started to flow gas to China on 21 October 2013. The oil

pipeline project was accomplished in August 2014. The Sino-Burma gas pipeline authorizing

program was observed in Mandalay on 28 July 2013. The pipelines are recognized as China’s

most tactically vital investment in Myanmar. This is an important energy sanctuary asset, and it

will lessen Beijing’s dependence on shipping through the slender choke-point of the Malacca

Strait. During constructing this project some ethnic people protested that the pipelines would

impact badly on the environment. But the CNPC declared that it is a non-polluting ecological

project. Moreover, the project has a sewerage treatment plant. The pipelines were made so

nicely, and it didn’t hamper the monuments, flora, and fauna of Myanmar. This project will help

greatly the two countries to improve their economic system (Business Report, 2013).

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Kyaukphyu Special Economic Zone and Deep Sea Port

The Kyaukpyu Special Economic Zone

(SEZ) and Deep-Sea Port are defined as

one of the three most important ports as

well as coastal progress projects

in Myanmar. The port is established on the

Bay of Bengal in Kyaukphyu, Ramree

Island, Rakhine State. The KPSEZ has

planned to make a deepwater port facility,

an industrial zone, then a high-end

housing project across a total of 4,300

acres. The two governments of the two

countries announced the project in 2013.

But now the project is conducted by a

private company. China International

Trust and Investment Corporation (CITIC)

Consortium is controlling the work of the

deep seaport. The deepwater seaport is

mainly the joint venture of the Chinese

consortium CITIC Myanmar Port

Investment Limited and the KPSEZ management committee. The KPSEZ project is tactically

and economically significant for the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC). The project

is recognized as a vital element of the Chinese infrastructure-focused Belt and Road Initiative.

The deepwater port will link China to the Indian Ocean through Myanmar. It will create the

economical path between China and India shorter. The port will permit Chinese trade to go

around the crowded Passage of Malacca near Singapore. It will also help in enlarging the

development in the non-coastal Yunnan Province of Myanmar. This will be a portion of the

China Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC). It will help China and India to trade easily (BRI

Monitor, 2022). China has invested in Kyaukphyu deep seaport around the US $1.3 billion. And

China has spent in Kyaukphyu Special Economic Zone (KPSEZ) around the US $1.5 billion

(BANERJEE & RAJAURA, 2021).

Figure 1: China funded Kyaukphyu deep see port and

economic zone, also the Sino-Myanmar gas line. The green

area is the Rakhaine state. Source: Bapler, 2020

17

The KPSEZ also plans to build an industrialzone. The zone will contain amenities for textile and

garment manufacturing, building materials processing, food processing, medicines, electronics,

marine provisions and services, and research (LWIN, 2020).

Financial Interest

Myanmar has a great economic dependency on China. We all know that China is the largest

trading companion of ASEAN countries including Myanmar. China has a major share in both the

importation and exportation sectors of Myanmar. In 2019, the two-sided trade raised at about

USD 12 billion out of around USD 36 billion. In 2019, China gained a 31.7 % share in its

exports and a 34.7 % share in its imports. It was huge than any other country including India.

Since 2001, Myanmar is importing a large number of goods and commodities from China. And

this is increasing the economic growth of China. Meanwhile, China has invested a huge amount

in the Sino-Burma Pipeline project, Kyaukphu port project, and Belt and Road Initiative project.

The oil and gas pipeline project has increased the economic profits level of Myanmar greatly.

The Belt and Road Initiative Project has great importance in the economy of Myanmar and

China (Samsani, 2021).

The Belt and Road Initiative Project

Previously the Belt and Road Initiative is known as the One Belt One Road Initiative (OBOR). It

is recognized as a global infrastructure development strategy. It is mainly a Chinese economic

and strategic schema by which the two ends of Eurasia, as well as Africa and Oceania, are tied

closely. The Initiative has tied the two countries via two routes- one overland and one maritime.

Belt and Road Initiative includes the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor. There is also a project

named BCIM economic corridor. BCIM includes Bangladesh, Myanmar, China, and India.

These corridors enhance the path of trading greatly and in an easy way. Again, China has many

other projects that the country wants to implement in Myanmar. These are Mee Lin Gyaing

LNG, New Yangon City project, Chinshwehaw CBECZ, Kanpiketi CBECZ, Kyaukphyu Power

Plant, and many more under its Belt and Road Initiative. China has invested US $2.5 billion and

the US $1.5 billion in Mee Lin Gyaing LNG and the New Yangon City project. The Mee Lin

Gyaing LNG project is ongoing. There is a reason behind these heavy investments of China in

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various improvement projects in Myanmar. The reason is that China is reassuring and

reaffirming its solid grasp in not only the infrastructural and economic affairs of the nation but

also at the tactical level at large. Myanmar Military Junta assures China that they can perform

their work without any hinder (BANERJEE & RAJAURA, 2021). These projects not only

benefit the economy of the two countries but also benefit local people. These projects have

created job opportunities for many local people. China also invests in the agriculture sector of

Myanmar. China has become one of the chief bases of FDI (Foreign Direct Investment) for

Myanmar. This FDI has helped the country to reach USD 21 billion as of March 2020 (Samsani,

2021).

China Myanmar Economic Corridor

China Myanmar Economic Corridor is very important for China’s geopolitical fortune. Today’s

China is one of the most influential countries in the world. The day is not so far when it will

regime the whole world. It has proved its success in every aspect and is proving still. This

economic corridor project is known as part of Beijing's larger approach of expanding its sources

of imported energy. The project also includes increasing China’s commercial incorporation with

Myanmar (YANG, 2012). China Myanmar Economic Corridor links China through to the Bay of

Bengal and Myanmar oil and gas fields there. China also has an economic corridor with Pakistan

which is known as China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. The CPEC project aims to develop the

lives of the people of Pakistan and China by constructing an economic corridor. It also aims to

encourage two-sided connectivity, construction; to discover potential bilateral investment,

economic and trade, logistics, and people-to-people interaction for local connectivity.

Socio-cultural Interest

There is a big similarity among Chinese and Burmese people. It is their religion. Both the

neighboring countries are Buddhist. This similarity also has influenced the two countries to

become closer. Many Chinese people live in Myanmar. It is about 80,000. Myanmar is full of

natural resources and natural beauty. Chen Hai, the Chinese ambassador of Myanmar said that

Myanmar is a state plentiful with tourism assets, comprising natural and cultural resources.

These assets fascinate foreign tourists, involving China. Many Chinese Tourists come to visit the

beauty of Myanmar every year. Myanmar’s hospitality industries are gaining high profits by

providing great facilities to customers. Around 320,882 Chinese tourists come to visit Myanmar

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and the amount is rising continuously. Myanmar government provides on-arrival visas for

Chinese tourists. In addition to tourism, Myanmar- China maintains a relationship for education

purposes. In 2019, Hau stated that the number of Burmese students studying in China had

extended to 140. He also added that the number of Chinese students in Myanmar had extended to

251. China always provides higher study facilities to BIMSTEC countries. And Myanmar is a

part of BIMSTEC. Myanmar is also an active member of BRI construction. China always plays a

major role for BIMSTEC and ASEAN countries (Zhuoyan, 2019). During This pandemic, China

has helped Myanmar greatly. The country is the prime provider of COVID vaccines in Myanmar.

Till now China has supplied over 16.6million COVID vaccines to Myanmar. Among 16.6

million doses of COVID-19, the country has donated 3.9 million to Myanmar (Huaxia, 2021).

Military cooperation

China is supporting the Myanmar Military regime concerning Rohingya Conflicts (Rohingyas

are an ethnic group of Myanmar). Myanmar's Military plays a major role in governing the

country. Myanmar Military ruled in Myanmar from 1962 to 2011. In 2021, they again returned to

the regime. This year they have completed one year of their regimes. Since the starting of the

bilateral friendship between the two countries, China has been maintaining a great relationship

with Myanmar Military. Various factors are working behind this relationship and there are many

reasons for supporting the Myanmar military against the Rohingya issues. One is China’s

geopolitical interests in Myanmar’s natural assets, another is it exports a huge number of

products and services like military aid, jet fighters, etc. China has become the top supplier that

supplies military aid to Myanmar since 1988 (SAMSANI, 2021). China is one of the main

countries that supply weapons to the Myanmar military. Moreover, China and Myanmar signed

a huge number of deals like the Belt and Road Initiative, SEZ and Deep-Sea port in Kyaukphyu,

Sino-Burma Pipelines project, etc. All these influences China in supporting the Myanmar

military regarding Rohingya conflicts. But in 2018, Premier Li Keqiang told the country’s

frontrunner Aung San Suu Kyi that China supported the Myanmar government’s efforts in

shielding domestic stability. Li Keqiang also offered Aung San Suu Kyi to sit with the

Bangladesh government for solving the Rakhine state issue via dialogue and consultation (Staff,

2018).

20

Figure 2: The proposed road connection is part

of China’s belt and road initiative. Source:

Motaher, 2019

6.2 India’s geopolitical interest

India and Myanmar are both neighboring countries. Previously Myanmar was a province of

British India and in 1937 the country got separated from British India. Mahatma Gandhi, the

father of the Indian nation influenced the citizen of Burma to protest against the British. In 1922,

Gandhiji said that he was not able to be happy about Burma being a part of British India as the

Burmese had a civilization of their own (Singh, 1998). India built political associations after

getting independence from Britain in 1947 and after Myanmar's freedom from Britain in 1948.

Now, there is a very close relationship between these two countries, and they maintain a two-

sided relationship. This relationship includes political, financial, and socio-cultural relationships.

This relationship was rooted in 1951 after the visit of Indian prime minister “Rajib Gandhi” in

Myanmar. China, Bhutan, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Myanmar are neighboring countries of

India. All the countries share land borders with India. But Myanmar is the only country that

shares both land and sea borders with India. This has made the Indo-Burma relationship more

powerful. In 2017, Narendra Modi, the Prime minister of India talked about the role of Burma in

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India’s independence and said, “Burma is the holy acreage where Netaji Subhash Chandra Bose

gave the slogan of 'give me blood and I will give you freedom'”. Myanmar is significant for India

as Myanmar has large geographic, historical, cultural, and economic impacts on the overall

development of North-Eastern Indian states. India not only maintains a good relationship with

the Myanmar government but also with the Myanmar Military. Myanmar is identified as the

most important and the only way to enter Southeast Asia for India

Political Interest of India

Geopolitics involves relationships between the interests of global politically aware actors. These

actors pay particular attention to a zone, a planetary, or a geographic component, associations

that generate a geopolitical scheme. The geopolitical interest of India is to connect with

Southeast Asia through Myanmar (KUMBUN, 2020). Myanmar is known as “The Land Bridge”

in India, as India can not only link with Southeast Asia but also East Asia and South Asia

through Myanmar. Myanmar also shares borders with the North-eastern region of India such as

Mizoram, Manipur, Nagaland, and Arunachal Pradesh (Ashraf, 2008). Moreover, Myanmar has

an entrance via the seaside to the Bay of Bengal and this entrance extends to the Indian Ocean.

Its western and northern edges link Bangladesh, China, also the remaining Northeastern states of

India. Its Southeast seaside is also adjacent to India’s Nicobar Islands. All these make the

geographical importance of Myanmar higher. That’s why India is getting more prone to raising

its relationship with Myanmar. Myanmar wants to lessen its reliance on China. For this,

Myanmar is also blossoming its connection with India. The Indian government is planning to

create the India-Myanmar-Thailand highway with the Myanmar government. It has a large

security interest for its North-eastern region. For this reason, it maintains a great relationship

with the Myanmar military named Junta. Again, Myanmar raised a hand to India to lead

combined operations inside its independent terrain to comprise rebellion in the Northeast in June

2015 against rebels belonging to the National Communist Association of Nagaland-

Khaplang(Rao, 2021). Myanmar also helped India during the Indian independence movement.

The Indian government also provides training to Myanmar Military. New Delhi, the capital of

India has created to foreign policy “Act East” and “Neighborhood First” to conduct this

relationship properly. India also helps the Myanmar Military in Rohingya warfare. When most of

the countries are against Myanmar as it is doing wrong with the Rohingya Muslims, India

22

supports the country. On the contrary, the other neighboring country of Asia “China” is the rival

country of India and it also has a great geopolitical interest in Myanmar. This issue has also

increased the political interest of India in Myanmar.

Financial interest of India

Myanmar is greatly important to India for economic purposes. Myanmar has a huge amount of

natural assets. Both India and China have economic interests in Myanmar’s assets. But India

provides many types of facilities to Myanmar. For this, the Indo-Burma liaison is developing

rapidly. They maintain bilateral trade partnerships. India is identified as the 4th largest trading

partner of Myanmar. India is also recognized as the second-largest export market of Myanmar

after Thailand. Moreover, Myanmar has declared India as the seventh most significant source of

its imports. India has set a policy called ‘Look East’. To fulfill the objectives of this policy, India

is trying hard and soul to strengthen its relationship with Myanmar. They are gradually obtaining

to fulfill this purpose. Indian and Myanmar governments had set an objective of attaining $1

billion in 2006-07 mutually and by 2017 they attained US$1.3 billion. India also helps

economically to Myanmar Military along with the Myanmar Government. The reason for this

help is that Myanmar Military owns the two biggest business corporations such as Myanmar

Economic Corporation (MEC) and Myanmar Economic Holding Ltd (MEHL). Again, the Indian

regime has been working on extending its airlines, land routes, and sea routes so that the Indo-

Burma trade relationship may remain stronger. Moreover, the country is also collaborating with

Myanmar in several fields such as agronomy, communications, oil and gas segments, etc.

Though the relationship between the governments of the two countries is blossoming, the private

sectors of India fear investing in Myanmar. The Indian government is trying to help Myanmar in

other fields like pharmaceutical, cement, steel, fertilizer, IT, as well as food processing. India

started using the borders with Myanmar in 1994. A bilateral border trade agreement is signed

between the two countries. The two neighboring countries conduct two border trade points and

these are Moreh (India)-Tamu(Myanmar) and Zowkhatar(India) –Rhi(Myanmar) on the 1643 km

lengthy border. Moreh border trade post is situated at Manipur and Zowkhatar border trade post

is situated at Mizoram. There is also another border trade point of India in Nagaland. And the

name of the trade point is the Lungwa border trade point. India also shares international border

trade with Myanmar through this border trade point. India sells betel nut, dried ginger, green

23

mung beans, turmeric roots, resin, medicinal herbs, cotton yarn, etc to Myanmar. India also

imports natural gas from Myanmar.

But the border trade between India-Myanmar has not been making profits properly. The Two

countries are working on developing this trade. It is recommended that a contract should be made

with the United Bank of India, Moreh branch and Myanmar Economic Bank, Tamu branch. This

contract will help to empower smooth trade processes at the Manipur border post (Mujtaba,

2007).

India has signed various projects with Myanmar. And they are working on these projects in

Myanmar. These projects are: -

Kaladan Multi-Modal Transport Transit Project

Kaladan Multi-Modal Transport Transit Project is recognized as a tactical scheme from the

Indian viewpoint. This project offers an alternative path to non-coastal NE states for plummeting

the distance from Kolkata to Assam by nearly 50%. The governments of India and Myanmar

abstracted this project in 2008. They started the work of this project in 2010. The budget for this

project is over 20,000 crores. This project includes the Dredging of River Kaladan between

Sittwe and Paletwa.

Figure 3: Kaladada project road, it will reduce and enhance connectivity of the between west

and east states Source: Wiki commons

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This project also includes a new jetty in Sittwe Port in Rakhine State, An internal water transport

access strip to Paletwa in southern Chin State, A highway from Paletwa to the India-Myanmar

boundary (DH News Service, 2017). India is paying concentration on the Kaladan Multi-Modal

project effectively. Most of the works have been completed. They have targeted to accomplish

the project by 2023. This project is a revolutionary project for India as the country will be able to

link with Southeast Asian nations by providing a shorter path via Myanmar-Thailand and further

towards the East (Sharma, 2021).

India-Myanmar-Thailand Trilateral Highway Project

The India-Myanmar-Thailand Trilateral Highway Project includes the connection between India,

Myanmar, and Thailand. India will link to Thailand via Myanmar. The highway will be 3660

km long. This project will help India to connect with ASEAN countries. This project is very

profitable for India. It will help in the trade sectors of both India and Myanmar. This project will

be involving three borders of three countries Moreh (India) -Bagan (Myanmar) -Mae Sot

(Thailand). India has been working on the “Act East Policy” to advance its activities with

Southeast Asia. This project is one of the largest examples of this work. In 2012 ASEAN-India

Commemorative Summit was arranged. In this summit, the committee had decided to lengthen

the Trilateral Highway to Lao PDR and Cambodia for expanding the India-ASEAN associations.

The expectation for accomplishing this project was within 2021. But due to the COVID-19

pandemic, the project’s work was delayed. But India is expecting to complete the work from its

side by 2023. Bangladesh's government has also shown interest to the Indian government to

connect with this project which helps the country to increase its association with Southeast Asia

(TANDON, 2020).

25

Figure 4: Kaladan project planned route. Source: wikipedia

The Socio-Cultural interest

Socio-cultural aspects act as an important part of a persons' progress and work. There are several

types of socio-cultural factors such as ethos or culture, language, religious conviction, level of

education, customer preferences, etc. Myanmar is a country where most of the citizens are

Buddhists. Myanmar always finds a strong connection in India. As India is the birthplace of Lord

Buddha, Myanmar considers India as the pilgrimage for them. Since ancient times, Myanmar is

known as “Swarnabhumi” or “The Land of Gold” because of its fertility and magnificence. It has

become an anthropologist’s heaven due to its antiquity, cultural variety, and unexplored virgin

property. Myanmar and India have always been maintaining good relations with each other.

Besides, political and economic relationship, the socio-cultural relationship is also great between

the two neighboring countries. Many Indian live in Myanmar and many Burmese live in India.

They share a great cultural bond. In 2017 The prime minister of India visited Naypyidaw in

Myanmar. There he announced that India would offer no-cost visas to Myanmar citizens for

visiting India. It will help the countries to increase their social bonds. Moreover, India provided

26

vaccines to Myanmar during the COVID-19 pandemic. India provided help to Myanmar when a

natural disaster like an earthquake occurred in 2010 at Shan state. It also provided relief to the

people of Myanmar during Cyclone mora, Komen(Wikipedia, n.d.). Many people live in India

who follows Buddhism. This is also another reason that makes the path of exchanging cultures

clear. The Burmese script is made based on the Grantha script of India. Burmese script is defined

as the script, which is based on alphabets used for contemporary Burmese, Mon, Shan, Rakhine,

Jingpho, and Karen. The Grantha script is mainly known as a South Indian script. This script

originated mainly in Tamil Nadu and Kerala (Trivedi, 2018). India increases its tourism facilities

for citizens of Myanmar. India wants to create an academic partnership with Myanmar.

Education is defined as a vital area. Education is a must for all people. It is one of the basic needs

of every human being. The education sector of Myanmar requires more investment for

improvement. India helps Myanmar greatly in this purpose. In 2012, Manmohan Singh, the ex-

prime minister of India, visited Myanmar and this helped greatly in exploring durable

educational collaboration between the two nations. India helps Myanmar to improve its school

education system and English spoken skills. India also provides education facilities to other

countries. India has been recognized as the second largest provider of higher education in the

world. And it continuously attracts students from the BIMSTEC countries. BIMSTEC countries

are Bangladesh, India, Myanmar, Srilanka, Bhutan, Nepal, and Thailand. One of the examples of

creating the traditional linkage of Myanmar and India regarding the education sector is that

Bengali novelist Sarat Chandra Chatterjee spent many years for teaching purposes at Yangon

University (Mishra & Das, 2020). Overall, the political, socio-cultural, and economic relations

between the two neighboring countries are great.

Anti-Muslim Sentiment

In 1961, the Myanmar parliament recognized Buddhism as the state religion, amending their

constitution. But Ne Win 1 Removed the unique honor of Buddhism and separated state and

religion with the purpose of mitigating the impact of Buddhist nationalist organizations and

movements (Ikuno, 1982).

1 Ne Win was a military commander who later served as the president of the country for several years. He is also

known as a military dictator.

27

But the decision was proved to boomerang for Ne Win. A student movement occurred in 1988,

called the '1988 uprising' protesting economic deprivation, and received the support of Buddhist

monks (Zahed, 2021, p.446).

Aung san Suu Kyi, the National League for Democracy (NLD) leader, supported the monks in

protesting against the military junta government. This movement ended in Ne Win descendance

and Saw Maung2 come into power.

After this movement, the military government intentionally promoted Buddhism and a

revolutionary Buddhist movement to secure their power, which encouraged the Buddhist

leadership towards communal and religious conflict. Though military government promoted a

theory that voting NLD would weaken Buddhism as many Muslim support NLD but still, NLD

and USDP (Union Solidarity and Development Party) asked for support from ultra-nationalist

Buddhist group, MaBaTha with giving it financial backup. MaBaTha3 proposed the Race and

Religion Protection Law, and millions of Buddhist citizens supported it.

Thousands of people and monks gathered in Mandalay on 2 September 2012 to show their

support to President Thein Sein4. He announced a proposal to resettle the Rohingyas in third

countries and delivered hate speech toward Rohingya Muslims supported by thousands of people

and monks (Kipgen, 2013, p. 306).

Economic Reason

Rakhine State, the abode of Rohingya Muslims, holds an enormous economic value that is one of

the most prominent reasons the Myanmar government is performing persecution against the

Rohingya community. Rakhine state is enriched with natural resources, including oil and gas,

mostly unused to date. The fertile land and a long coastline made this state economically

attractive due to its potential to grow corps and be a trade hub. Besides, Rakhine is an economic

corridor that connects the country to regional centers in Africa, the Middle East, and India.

The Rohingya minorities are also paying regional prices. The Rakhine State is significant for its

geographical position. It is located between China and India, two big powers of today's economic

and political world, and they have always been attracted to Rakhine’s natural resources. Having a

2 Was a five-star military general 3 An extreme Nationalist Buddhist organization support the military government. 4 A retired military general, who later became a politician with the support from Buddhist organization

28

powerful position in Rakhine is a part of the strategy of China and India to show dominance in

this region.The Myanmar government is accused of attempting to wipe out the Rohingya

community to take control over the natural resources of this state. Besides, the military

government is confiscating acres after acres of land in the name of economic development.

Rakhine State has become an enchanting place of foreign investment, including Singapore, South

Korea, China, Japan, Malaysia, and India, due to having oil and gas in huge amounts as Rakhine

State has the largest oil and gas deposits in Southeast Asia and the Bay of Bengal. (Myint, 2019)

China signed an agreement with Myanmar in 2012 that allows them to import gas from the Shwe

reserve for 30 years. China financed the Kyaukpyu special economic zone and the Myanmar

government confiscated 4289.32 acres of land for managing land for this zone in December

2015. (Kasumata& Nagata, 2019, p.341-342)

China financed and built a deep seaport worth US$1.3 billion at Kyaukpyu in Rakhine, and also

constructed a US$1.5 billion crude oil pipeline and a US$1 billion natural gas pipeline to connect

the Indian Ocean port of Kyaukphyu to its Yunnan Province. (Pie, 2018)

Myanmar and Japan initiated joint ventures for fishing trade and cold storage in Rakhine.

India is not lagging as well. Kaladan Multi-Model Transit Transport Project is very important for

India, and they invested US$135 million to construct the Sittwe seaport in Rakhine State, which

is part of the project. India also got permission to explore natural gas and oil in the Rakhine area

and came with a deal of 150 million dollars with the Myanmar government for it. (Sidhu, 2020,

p.98-99)

These examples imply how foreign investors are benefiting the Myanmar government. To pave

the path of investors to Rakhine State and implement several development projects, the Myanmar

government is driving out Rohingya from Rakhine.

To wrap up, we can say that the factors that play a vital role in the Myanmar government's ethnic

cleansing against the Rohingya community are not only their identity as a religious and ethnic

minority. The root of this persecution is ingrained in the Rohingya's history of desiring

autonomy, geopolitics, and economic advantages of the Rakhine State. However, no matter what

causes such brutality, the human rights of Rohingya must be secured and elevated by the world

community.

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7. Discussion

Historical realism in Rohingya conflict

The Rohingya conflict is complex in nature, and it has a historical root. One of the major

historical changes occurred at the time of British colonialism. At that time, colonialism changed

the geographical map of Burma (Myanmar, whose previous name was Burma). Tribal chiefs

ruled many ethnic areas. Later these areas became an area of conflict when the British left the

Indian subcontinent. The consequences of British rule are now visible in the case of the

Rohingya conflict. At the time of the British period, identity politics started in the region

(Latremouille, p. 20).

The military regime of Myanmar perceives the Rohingya community as a threat to their interest

and the country’s security. Because of historical reasons, the Rohingya community wanted a

separate nation for their own safety as they didn’t feel secure in Myanmar. However, later it

backfired and became a curse for the entire community. Now the military regime systemically

runs ethnic cleansing in the name of the country’s security. The Rohingya community is the most

persecuted community in the world.

The popular notion of the Rohingya conflict is, an ethic conflict between Buddhis and Muslim

Rohingya people. However, it is too simple an explanation of the Rohingya conflict when we

consider the overall geopolitical picture of international politics. Among many other reasons, two

important causes are more vital than others. The geopolitical and geo resource interests of other

countries are intensifying the Rohingya conflict.

One of the founding principles of the realist theory is that the state will act for its national

interest in international politics. If we consider the case of the Rohingya conflict, we will observe

that the realist view of the state is present. Every state is acting for its national interest without

considering the sufferings of millions. One of the realist views is that humans are selfish in

nature, and that is visible in the acting of the present military government of Myanmar. The

military government and its officials are run by their personal interests and selfishness. It is so

dire that they are killing their citizens when their interest is hampered.

30

Power Balance

All countries of the world practice realism for maintaining international political relations. It is

known to us that all states seek to increase their power for the welfare of their citizens. They

search for lessening power against their opponents. The states who have less power see the other

powerful states as their rivals. According to realism people are avaricious, insecure, as well as

aggressive. So, the states these greedy people govern have also similar features. This does not

mean that the states will start a war against powerful states. They will try to adopt the same

power or balance the power by shaking hands with the powerful countries as per realism.

China is one of the most powerful countries today and maintains a bilateral relationship with

Myanmar. When Myanmar shook hands with India, China felt threatened as India is a rival

neighbor of China. Therefore, China and India by any means like to maintain a good relationship

with Myanmar for their national interest (Hongwei, 2012). But this does not mean that Myanmar

has announced war against China. They still maintain a good relationship because of their self-

national interest. Such an India, China and Myanmar military regime is sharing and balancing the

power in this region and Rakhaine state of the Rohingya community is a key element of the

power balance.

China’s interest and geopolitical hegemony

China is historically a friend of Myanmar for various reasons. The two countries not only share

bilateral trade relationships but also geography, antiquity, ethnicity, culture, and economic

relationships.

Aforediscussed empirical analysis clearly shows that China has vast economic and geopolitical

interest in Myanmar. Myanmar's deep seaport is important for china. China does more than 85 %

of their business by the sea route. Which is through the strait of Malacca, near singapore. China

knows any time US and its allies can close this sea route if there is any conflict with the west,

therefore, if China can use the land and seaport of Myanmar there will be another alternative

road for Chinese business and economy.

To challenge US hegemony over southeast Asia, China wants to keep a good relationship with

Myanmar. Recently, the Myanmar government has tended to lean on ‘West’. This is a threat for

31

China's overall world political goal. Many studies show that China will be the largest economy

by 2030, and therefore they like to dominate world politics with their allies and policies. In this

regard Myanmar is geographically and economically a significant friend. No matter what the

military regime does to the Rohingya, China will not go against that unless the military regime

goes against the national interest of China. Thus, the realist view persists in this case. In addition,

the deep seaport is clearly a great advantage for China as it will reduce the distance between the

African continent and will be an easy shipping and trading line for China (figure 1).

Shwe Gas Project and deep seaport are in the Rakhine state. That also shows the geo resource

interest of China, and India is also needed to consider when we try to understand the Rohingya

conflict. Motaher in his thesis argues that to collect the natural resources of the Rakhine state

both India and China are competing, they are in a rivalry situation, trying to control over the

natural resources and establish their hegemony. The natural resources become a curse for the

inhabitants of the Rakhaine state. Overall considering the situation, Myanmar will be a great

economic corridor for China (Motaher, 2019). So, for China’s regionals and geopolitical

supremacy, Myanmar is a significant area.

China has similar issue with Uighar Muslim of Chaina. This is also one of the political reasons.

India’s interest and geopolitical hegemony

Why is India being one of the largest democratic countries supporting the Myanmar military

regime and authoritarian government? The answer lies clearly in the realist theory. India has a

vast interest in Myanmar. First, India wants Myanmar’s natural resources, and India has a big

market in Myanmar. Second, from a security perspective, India wants Myanmar on its side. India

has a rival relationship with China. Therefore, both China and Myanmar want to maintain a good

relationship with Myanmar. ‘Maintain good relationships with the neighboring countries and

Look east’, is now India’s one of the key components of the foreign policy. Under this policy,

India always wants to maintain a good relationship with Myanmar. It can be assumed that if a

conflict arises between India and China, then India wants to cut off China from entering the Bay

of Bengal. Moreover, India has real security issues near the border area of Myanmar. Naga land

has been a national security issue for India for decades. The Naga rebels often attack India’s

security forces. Therefore, for national security purposes, India fights against the Naga rebel near

32

the border area of Myanmar. Keeping this policy in mind India is heavily investing in Myanmar

in different projects and silent on the Rohingya conflict issue.

The overall politics and realism

As I have discussed earlier, the Rakhine state has an abundance of natural resources; therefore, it

has attracted the attention of the capitalist interest of the two countries. The military regime of

Myanmar engaged in millions of dollars of business in the country, especially in the brass and

jade mine business. It is an open secret that the military runs many shadow businesses in the

country, and senior military generals are involved in the business. In addition, if we consider the

arms business between China and Myanmar. China and India mainly focus on protecting national

interests, particularly ensuring their geopolitical and geo-economic security.

Myanmar is highly geopolitically significant to many countries. Geopolitical interest includes

political, socio-cultural, and economic interests. Myanmar contains natural resources like oil and

gas. The country shares borders with many countries like Thailand, India, Bangladesh along

with China. The reason behind being geopolitically significant is that Myanmar is situated at the

junction of East Asia, South Asia, and Southeast Asia. Moreover, Myanmar has become the only

access between Southeast Asia and East Asia. Myanmar also contains marine resources, forests,

minerals, etc. Myanmar is identified as the center of interest for both China and India. Both

China and India have some implementation strategies in Myanmar. These are China’s “Belt and

Road Initiative” and India’s “Act East Policy”.

China helps Myanmar in various ways like providing training to the Burmese Junta (Military),

air force, and naval personnel; providing military aid; supplying jet fighters, naval vessels, etc

(Rahman & Akon, 2019). But for many years, the relationship between Myanmar and China has

been going through a tough phase. The relationship is changing gradually, and Myanmar is

shaking hands with India over China. Though the relationship is not well, China’s helping hand

towards Myanmar has not stopped. One of the best examples of this help is that China is

supporting Myanmar against Rohingya to deport Rohingya from the country.

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8. Conclusion

It can be said surely that, Rohingya conflict is not only an ethnic, religious, or racial conflict.

There is a deep history of the conflict. The geopolitics of the area made the situation worse.

Economic interests of the inside and outside ‘actors’ are also important. It is clear that India and

China will support the military regime of Myanmar for their national interest despite the

sufferings of millions of Rohingya. Taking into consideration the realist theory it proves that the

state will act only to gain power and serve national interest. The key of Rohingya conflict

resolution lies in the geopolitics of India and China. Bangladesh should talk to both China and

India; without the help of China and India it is not possible for the repatriation of millions of

Rohingya people who are living in refugee camps of Cox bazar. The Rohinghya community also

need assurance from the state for their security, otherwise they will not repatriate from

Bangladesh. However, to restore peace in the region, we need to consider the geopolitical

interests of India and China, view the big picture of the region, and engage different stakeholders

for a sustainable solution.

34

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