Lloyd 2013 Transition Adelaide Hills

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Transition Adelaide HillsWhere Do We Want to Go?

DAVID G. LLOYD

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Transition Adelaide Hills: Where Do We Want to Go?

David G. Lloyd, Barbara Hardy Institute, University of South Australia

Abstract: This paper describes the beginnings of a futures scenario development and implementation process which forms a key aspect of the community work of Transition Adelaide Hills (TAH). While TAH is registered as a full member of the Transition Towns movement, TAH is, like all groups, developing along lines that suit the unique environment and talents of its members. The story starts with a brief history, including the context of the study, and then describes how TAH has gone about developing a first draft of a futures scenario to guide its decision making.

Keywords: Futures Scenarios, Transition Towns, Sustainable Communities

Introduction

n this paper I describe the process for developing, and critically review the outcomes of, a project by Transition Adelaide Hills to enact the first principle of the Transition Initiatives movement-creating positive visions of desired futures (Hopkins, 2008)

for communities. The intent is to chronicle the first phase of an attempt by TAH to effect significant change in how Hills’ communities operate. The motivation for Transition Initiatives to develop futures scenarios is that “if the present path is so obviously unsound, what picture of the future can we use to guide our actions toward a global community that can endure?” (Brown, Flavin & Postel, 2008, p.760). Ogilvy (2002, p. 17) argues that “the moral fulcrum for prying a better future away from the actual presentis to be found in the shared hopes of a community, as articulated through the process of scenario planning, using the new tools of a new world view”.

Members of TAH have used futures imaging and discussion groups to develop a futures scenario for the communities in the picturesque central Mount Lofty Ranges that form the backdrop to the City of Adelaide, the capital of South Australia. Their aim is to use this futures scenario, and its iterations, to direct their activities in planning for sustainable and resilient communities knowing that peak oil and climate change will require us to live differently. The hope in developing and sharing this futures work is that it will help TAH and others to plan for and create sustainable communities that are “more holistic, more relational, more integrative, more Earth-honouring, and less arrogantly human-centred” (Wilber, 1995, p. 4).

Three aspects of the futures scenario approach will be briefly described here. The first is the processes adopted to gather participants’ ideas, the second the method used to construct the futures scenario, and thirdly an overview and critique of the themes that emerged.

The Study Context

Transition Adelaide Hills (TAH) operates predominately in the Adelaide Hills Council district which is situated in the central western Mt Lofty Ranges 12–20 kilometres from the Adelaide CBD, part of the traditional lands of the Peramangk people, custodians of this land for thousands of years. While the district (population 40,000) contains over 50 communities, most of the activity for this study is with residents of the Crafers/Stirling/Aldgate/Bridgewater area (population approx. 12 000). It is an area of outstanding natural beauty, good rainfall and productive rural land. The down side is the

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danger of bushfires in summer. The population is predominately Australian born of European descent.

The Transition Adelaide Hills (TAH) group started in 2010 from an initial group affiliated with the Sustainable Communities Network (SA). The motivation for forming both groups was to help the region move towards a more resilient and sustainable future by bringing together people interested in reducing their own carbon footprint and more generally their ecological footprint, and the footprints of their communities. TAH is managed by a dedicated group of around 10 people who meet monthly and has an e-mail distribution list of around 200.

Informing Literature

A number of literatures have been consulted in informing the futures work and three of these, pertinent to the futures scenario work, are Transition Initiatives, futures scenarios and integral futures.

Transition Initiatives

Transition Initiatives are part of “a small but growing movement of engaged citizens, community groups, businesses, and elected officials” that have “begun the transition to a post-carbon world” (Heinberg, 2010, p. 11; see also Hopkins, 2008, pp. 144–145 for Transition Initiative principles). They are part of a worldwide movement to effect world view change and sustainable living through community (Hawken, 2007; Heinberg, 2011; Hopkins, 2008, 2011; Judt, 2010) and local government action (Kaufmann, 2010). Transition Initiatives are about creating resilient and flourishing communities in light of peak oil, climate change and other trends that are detrimental or restricting of individuals and communities. The Transition Initiatives model explores the ground between what we can do personally and what is the responsibility of government-what could be achieved at a community level.

Being able to vision a livable future is particularly necessary in times of rapid change–and we are in one now (Laszlo, 2001; Lowe, 2009; Suzuki, 2010; Raskin et al., 2006). Hopkins (2008, p. 77 & p. 93) observes that “inherent within the twin challenges of peak oil and climate change is an extraordinary opportunity to reinvent, rethink and rebuild the world around us” and suggests that “we are only just beginning to scratch the surface of the power of a positive vision of an abundant future: one that is energy-lean, time-rich, less stressful, healthier and happier”. One of the most important things we have to re-learn according to Jucker (2002, p. 15), “is to develop our imagination, our ability to visualize and implement sustainable solutions”. Futures visioning is Ian Lowe’s (2009, p. 99) first step to a sustainable world-“Unless there is vision, there is no motivation to change.”

Futures Scenarios

The first principle of the Transition Initiatives movement is to develop positive futures scenarios for each initiative (Hopkins, 2008). Judt (2010, p. 218) makes the point that “We have no idea what sort of world our children will inherit, but we can no longer delude ourselves into supposing that it must resemble our own”. As responsible citizens, our challenge is to determine as best we can the future towards which we can plan. Futures scenarios are designed to do this. They take a vision and translate it into a story that can be enacted. They have the function of challenging, inspiring and stimulating thinking about future possibilities, and by reflecting upon them, to generate renewed discussions between concerned parties (Snoek, 2003; Tydeman, 1987). Futures scenario are Ian Lowe’s (2009, p. 99) second step to solving our current issues-“to picture the future we want”.

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LLOYD: TRANSITION ADELAIDE HILLS

In his book Macroshift: Navigating the transition to a sustainable world Laszlo (2001) uses two scenarios, the breakdown scenario (persistent pursuit of material goods and grandiose lifestyles overexploits resources and impoverishes the environment) and the breakthrough scenario (let’s try to live in a way that enables others to live as well). Raskin et al. (2002) build six futures scenarios around three themes, conventional world (market reform or policy reform), barbarization (breakdown or fortress world) and the great transition (eco-communalism or new sustainability paradigm). Hopkins (2011, p. 40) identifies a range of scenarios that express a “wildly eclectic mixture of opinions, models, world views and people, each with differing senses of what kind of future may lie ahead of us”. He identifies three types of scenarios, adaptation (invent our way out of trouble), evolution (a change of attitude/heart) and collapse (fracturing and disintegration society). TAH has focused on constructing a normative futures scenario (a vision of the future informed by a sense of what ought to be (Ogilvy, 2002, p. 115)) which seems on first analysis to be closer to the breakthrough, great transition and evolution type scenarios.

There are many approaches to writing futures scenarios described in the literature. The approach take here is described in the research methods section of this paper and in Lloyd, 2009, 2010, 2011; Lloyd, et al., 2010.

Integral Futures

Ogilvy (2002, p. 5) says that fresh thinking about the future calls for alternative scenarios based on new assumptions that differ from the old, not just quantitatively but qualitatively, and Cock (1991, p. 2) that “a multidimensional approach is needed that appeals not only to the intellect, but also to feeling and spirit”. Futures scenarios about sustainable and resilient communities are by their very name complex, and need to value the political, cultural/historical, ethical, social, economic, demographical, technical/scientific, environmental and spiritual (Holling, Gunderson & Ludwig, 2002; Snoek, 2003). Meadows, Randers and Meadows (2004, p. 282) see that “collapse cannot be avoided if people do not learn to view themselves and others as part of one integrated global society”. This challenge, to create futures scenarios that are inclusive of everything, is not a trivial task and will require development over much iteration and possibly multiple versions that describe different types of future worlds. To get started, a normative scenario approach that is integrally informed has been adopted.

Sustainability frameworks such as the one adopted by Australia (Ecologically Sustainable Development Working Group Chairs, 1992) value this complexity through a set of guiding principles: intergenerational equity, intragenerational equity, conservation of biodiversity, global issues, handling risk with caution and developing resilient economies. While each of these aspects have been respected in this work, a more open and less specific quadrants aspect of Wilber’s (1995, 1998, 2001, 2006) integral model has been adopted to inform the development of the TAH futures scenario. The integral framework is based on our awareness of the interrelatedness and interdependence of all phenomena–cultural (the internal world of communities–“we”; the “good”), the internal world of community members (spiritual/psychological–“I”; the “beautiful”), and the external world of natural systems (ecological and community– “Its”; the “true”) and the things that make them up (“It”; also the “true”) (Esbjörn-Hargens, 2009; Gunnlaugson, 2005; Lloyd, Smith, & Paige, 2011; Stewart, 2008; Slaughter, 2008; Wilber, 1995, 2000, 2005). The four quadrants model has been used as a heuristic/tool to organize the construction of the TAH futures scenario.

Futures scenarios that are integrally informed consider all that is understood about Kosmos (Laszlo, 2006; Wilber, 1995, 2000) in the creation and enacted process (Slaughter,

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2004). An integrally informed scenario is spiritual, scientific, ethical and political (Slaughter, 2004) and works towards “a new form of society ... that integrates consciousness, culture, and nature, and thus finds room for art, morals, and science–for personal values, for collective wisdom,and for technical know-how” (Wilber, 2000, p. 307). As Wilber points out the “present environmental crisis is due primarily to a fractured world view, a world view that drastically separates mind and body ... values and facts, spirit and matter” and a world view that “erroneously separates humans from, and often unnecessarily elevates humans above all the rest of the fabric of reality” (Wilber, 1995, p. 4).

Methodology

The research methodology is appreciative enquiry which sits within the tradition of action research but which goes beyond rational action alone to value the intuitive, the spiritual, and the aesthetic, and values both theory making and action (Cooperrider & Srivastva, 1987; Reid, n.d.; Reason & Bradbury, 2001; Zandee & Cooperrider, 2008). Appreciative enquiry has the purpose of producing ideas about who we are and what we can become and practical knowledge that is useful in the everyday conduct of our lives. In this study the process is community self-reflective enquiry on the ways it can function sustainably in the light of peak oil and climate change using a futures scenario approach. So it has the purpose of critiquing and improving our understanding of ethics towards and behaviour in our community such that we can live sustainably and flourish. The TAH task is to develop a futures scenario to inform changes in world view thinking and acting, to act to implement the scenario, to monitor progress towards the vision and modify it if needed, and to do this through a succession of cycles.

What is reported here is the first iteration of a cyclic process of reflection and improvement. While the research approach is appropriate for all the work done as Transition Adelaide Hills, the focus here is on the futures scenario aspect only.

Research Methods

Two research methods have been used to generate data-futures imaging and World Café-and to analyse and synthesise the data, integrally informed futures scenarios.

Futures Imaging

In this study futures imaging has been used with the TAH planning group and invited guests as a method of imaging what TAH would like its community to be like in 15 to 20 years. Par-ticipants produce a personal written report and discussion is recorded. Futures imaging is a well-established futures technique that has been used, for example, by Joanne Macy (1983) to image a world without war with groups of concerned citizens, and by educators with students for imaging possible, probable and preferable future times (Jones, 1998; Lloyd, 2002, 2007; Lloyd & Wallace, 2004; Wilson, 1989).

Once participants have been seated comfortably, welcomed and had explained what will happen, they are taken on a guided fantasy into the future. They are prepared for the journey by undertaking a relaxation activity and then guided to a future time and place. They are left to explore their image for about four minutes and then brought back to the present time and place. They record, without discussion with others, their journey in as much detail as they can. The group then discuss their experience. Participants’ written and recorded discussions are collected and a composite image constructed.

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World Café

Two World Café events have been used to collect data for the futures scenario. Community members through advertising, e-mail list and word of mouth are invited to attend a World Café afternoon or evening to talk about community sustainability issues. The aim is for “ambience,good food, conversation, lots of mingling and an outpouring of ideas” (Hopkins, 2008, pp. 188–190).

As a conversational process, the World Café is an innovative yet simple method for hosting conversations about questions that matter. These conversations link and build on each other as people move between groups, cross-pollinate ideas, and discover new insights into the questions or issues that are most important in their life, work, or community. As a process, the World Café can evoke and make visible the collective intelligence of any group, thus increasing people’s capacity for effective action in pursuit of common aims (http://www.theworldcafe.com/what.htm). In the case of TAH there was an added purpose, to use the material generated to develop a normative and integrally informed futures scenario with the key issues of peak oil and climate change in mind.

Futures Scenario Writing

In this study futures imaging and World Café events have been used to gather data to inform the development of an integrally informed futures scenario for the year 2030. The collected data has been analysed using the integral quadrants (I, We, It and Its), and used to develop a scenario that “people consider to be the most desirable...” (Miller, 2007, p. 344). A five step process has been used:

• Step 1–identify what the scenario is about and its purpose-the scenario question.• Step 2–identify the key variables. This step includes identifying the policies

and practices already in place or being developed that impact on theidentified issues, and trends and the assumptions and hypotheses that underpinthem, and then interrogate them (Kleiner, 1999). The quadrants tool, (the science ofthings and natural systems including humans; personal well-being;cultural/world-view considerations) is used here.

• Step 3–Deciding on the variables that are the key drivers. At this stage, all thekey variables have been used (see Table 1).

• Step 4–Selecting the form of the scenario–a normative form as discussedabove has been used at this time. The genre for the scenario is also decidedhere.

• Step 5–Write the scenario and bring it to life. The scenarios can be broughtto life by visualising it in a particular context and using an appropriate genre to tellthe story. The scenario is now used to generate policy changes and action plans(Miller, 2007).

It is hoped that at the personal and community level the scenario is useful in helping individuals and communities make decisions about projects and life styles that can bring about a transition to a flourishing life with a low carbon and ecological footprint and commitments to future generations–this is Step 6, moving from the scenario to strategic transformations to help create better personal, social and world futures. Lowe’s (2009) fourth step and Transitions Initiatives’ five additional principles (Hopkins, 2008, pp. 144–145).

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http://www.theworld-cafe.com/what.htm)


Data Set

The futures scenario discussed in this paper was constructed using material collected at four events; a Sustainable Communities Meeting (Monday 4th Jan 2010), A World Café event (Sat-urday 19t h June, 2010; 30 people), a Guided fantasy activity with a group of interested hills residents (Monday 7t h February, 2011; 10 people) and a second World Café event (Saturday 5th November, 2011; approx. 24 people).

Constructing the Futures Scenario

For Step 1 of the five step futures scenario construction process discussed earlier, the scenario will be referred to at this point in time as, “Transition Adelaide Hills 2031 (TAH): Vibrant and Flourishing”. A second iteration of the story has been completed. The first scenario was built from the first three sets of data and the second all four. To frame variables (Step 2 and 3) the integral framework of the four interrelated and interdependent perspectives discussed above has been used.

Central to the story must be carbon descent and adaptation to and mitigating of climate change. These are givens in Transition Initiatives but when workshop data is unpacked many subthemes are revealed. These are listed in Table 1 with illustrative phrases from the data.

Table 1: Scenario Themes Identified in the Data

Themes Example statements from the data/scenario Cultural/World view (“We)

Understanding of how the world operates

• No real separation between individuals and the community/naturalenvironment. Community embedded in a natural ecosystem

Values – in general • We question what gives our lives meaning – it is not about theaccumulation of goods, it’s something deeper and more connected to the people and natural world around us?

Valuing people • We value all members of the community but in particular our elders.Trust • The building of trust with each other was necessary in order to get

everyone involved in community building and sustainabilitybehaviours

Sufficiency • Stopped feeling we are entitled to have anything and everything wewant, and now have a sense of responsibility for preserving the beautyof what we already have.

Community building • This working together, rather than in isolation with local governmentleads naturally to motivated and empowered communities and thesharing of values and resource

Creativity • We have really excellent thinkers in Australia and they are nowsupported by the community and our government to ensure that greatideas are followed through ... and are not sent offshore.

Ecological and Social Systems (“Its”)

Energy distribution • Base load electricity comes from local and imported small/mediumscale wind farms and soon from the new Riverland Solar ThermalPlant.

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Land use & Natural environment

• Moratorium was placed on any zoning or other changes applying toland currently used for food production, or containing a significantproportion of native vegetation. More public space is now used ascommunity gardens and the planting of fruit and nut trees.

• The new land use policies have also ensured less noise and airpollution for all residents.

Resilient economic system

• To facilitate a mainly local economy, the Adelaide Hills Dollar hasbeen introduced.

• As a result of developing a local economy most people work fromhome, there is less travel needed to Adelaide, more opportunity forvalued community work and sharing of resources within thecommunity.

Governance • Environmental and sustainability concerns are factored into everystage of Council’s planning and decision-making– particularly inrelation to urban planning, water usage, transport, buildingregulations, energy, and resource reuse.

Food production/distribution

• Community supported agriculture and local markets are probably themost obvious visual change in this thriving Adelaide Hills economy.

Transport system • Adelaide Hills Transport Strategy has been upgraded to reflect thegrowing price in liquid fuels and the need to shift to renewableenergy, and produced a transport infrastructure that accommodatesthese more energy sustainable modes of travel.

Communications • The new National Broad Band Network (NBN) has kept hills residentin touch with adjacent communities and with the rest of the world.This computer technology lessens the need to travel and videoconferencing suits business and social groups for most purposes.

Population • What is also of significance is population size which affects allnatural and social systems in some way. We have an agingpopulation and this presents special challenges for our communities.Respecting what older people can bring to a community – as wiseelders- and their special needs for life.

Personal wellbeing (“I”) Connectivity to the natural world

• More engagement with nature, more community life.• Being in nature has a strong therapeutic effect.

General health • Belonging to a connected community that cares for each other hasresulted in better physical and mental health. People are not isolation.

Employment • Most people work 3 to 4 days per week and rarely work (for money)more than 20 hours per week, due to their almost self-sufficiency inenergy, water, food and clothing -making and repairing thanks towisdom of the Elders.

Education • Community and school education is centred on local and global issuesand the questions “what gives our lives meaning?” and “how can welive sustainability within our natural environment?”

Material wellbeing (“It”)

Energy decent/ Peak oil

• The Adelaide Hills communities are looking at all forms of renewableenergy - not just solar and wind.

• “Waste” is collected and used locally to produce bio-fuels as well asco-generation (heat and electricity) for local business.

No carbon transport • Solar powered mini-buses. Electric cars, compressed air –poweredcars, bicycles.

• Vehicle traffic has become much reduced and streets are peaceful andquiet.

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Food security • Communal space (including no longer used car parks) and public landare also used for growing fruit trees.

• Community gardens and commercial mixed farms (monoculturehaving become a thing of the past).

Resource conservation • High embedded energy goods such as concrete, aluminium and steeland rare materials used in electronics are recycling quite extensively.

• Shoppers take their own containers/bags to stores, rather than havegoods packed for them in the store.

Housing • Retro fitted houses, glassed in northern verandas, shutteredsouthern/western windows.

• New planning regulations have allowed for higher density living andsmaller, more affordable housing. Residents have much lowermortgages and can choose to make balanced, and healthier,work/home/community life choices.

Water • Storm water to recharge local aquifers.• The collection of water from roofs and stored in tanks is extensive;

large privately owned and communal underground water tanks.• In-house sewerage system treatments and use.

For Step 4-Selecting the form of the scenario—a normative form has been used, as discussed in the literature review. The genre for the scenario is also decided here–a chronicle format has been decided upon at this stage, but more imaginative forms are possible such as a newspaper article, a story with a number of chapters or a business report. The introductory paragraph to the scenario sets the scene:

We chronicle here, in the year 2031, our progress towards a flourishing Adelaide Hills community that has generated a new sense of community and is rapidly moving to zero carbon emissions and improved resilience in many areas including water storage and use, food production and transport.

And the scenario summary:

The world we live in now has changed. Consumerism, particularly the use of cheap energy in the form of coal and oil, has made way to low carbon, lower consumption communities without the loss of those things which make life worthwhile–inner well-being, cultural connectivity, adequacy of material goods and a life in harmony with the natural world. Valuing only what you have got–a monitory primary–has shifted to valuing the inner-self, the community in which we live and the environment of which we are a part. There are still challenges with respect to large population numbers, social and ecological equity and the provision of sustainable living within a resilient ecology, but the values shifts (trusting, respecting and valuing) make their resolution possible.

The final step (Step 5) is to write the scenario and bring it to life. Much of the “stitching together” of the scenario has been undertaken by the author. It is currently out for consultation and hopefully wider distribution where it can be brought to life in many ways by visualising it in a particular context using an appropriate genre to tell the story. The

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scenario can then be used to generate policy changes and action plans (Step 6) as suggested in the scenario:

These events provided the TAH planning group with a set of ideals on which to develop a 20 year strategic plan, central to which was an energy descent strategic plan. We describe here progress towards fulfilling this plan.

Next Steps and Concluding Comment

I conclude by discussing current and future challenges and directions necessary now that the futures scenario has been constructed in a second draft form. The first challenge is to establish general acceptance of the content of the scenario by the people who contributed to the workshop, visioning and World Café events; are there aspects misrepresented or not adequately covered? There is a need to evaluate the process and the product and ask the question “is there more than one scenario that can be constructed from the data?” A second challenge is to get broader community acceptance. Those taking part in the generation of the data are but a small percentage of the community and people with a particular passion/interest in futures thinking and planning. Building community acceptance of the scenario approach and trust in the process, so strongly identified as essential in the scenario, needs to be established and/or strengthened. A third and related challenge to ownership is the placing of community at the centre of public life—local community being primary to individual wants (individualism) and state governance jurisdiction (collectivism); and how do these three layers interact with the enactment of the scenario? A fourth challenge for the scenario is how well it connects to our understanding of the way the world works–what does research say? The final challenge is to have the scenario enacted—Step 6. The breadth of the content of the scenario requires that many groups of change agents take their particular interest further. There are likely to be groups already formed that have not as yet contributed but could/need to and are already involved in aspects identified in the scenario. As Senge et al. (2010, p. 293) point out “The vast changes required for creating a regenerative society will not be achieved just by reacting to crises after they arise. They will require inspiration, aspiration, imagination, patience, perseverance, and no small amount of humility. They will require networks of committed people and organisations that not only learn how to see the system shaping how things work now, but also create alternatives (Senge, et al., 2010, p. 293).

In summary, a normative scenario has been developed that is based on what community members believe ought to be, and based upon a world view consistent with the Transition Initiative Principles (Hopkins, 2008). Transition Adelaide Hills has the view that future communities should be sustainable and resilient socially, culturally and environmentally. There is a need to develop an ideal future time–not utopian (an impossibly ideal place) but eutopian (a place of ideal happiness or good order). TAH is just into the first step of transition–there is still much to do in the Adelaide Hills.

Acknowledgements

The contributions of the Transition Adelaide Hills planning group have been central to the development of this brief report.

I would also like to thank the referees for their supportive comments and Ms Louise Roberts for suggested improvements.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Dr. David G. Lloyd: A former science teacher and university lecturer in science and envir-onmental education. Currently an Adjunct Research Fellow with the Barbara Hardy Institute, University of South Australia and a member of Transition Adelaide Hill, The Old School Community Garden, Earth Communities and the Adelaide Hills Council Sustainability Advisory Committee

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The International Journal of Social Sustainability in Economic, Social, and Cultural Context is one of four thematically focused journals in the family of journals that support the Sustainability knowledge community—its journals, book series, conference, and online community. The journal focuses on socio-cultural and economic analyses of sustainability.

In addition to traditional scholarly papers, this journal invites presentations of sustainability practices—including documentation of case studies and exegeses analyzing the effects of these practices.

The International Journal of Social Sustainability in Economic, Social, and Cultural Context is a peer-reviewed scholarly journal.

ISSN 2325-1115

Lloyd 2013 Transition Adelaide Hills

Documents

Transcript of Lloyd 2013 Transition Adelaide Hills