Kuliah Umum – Sesi Pagi

Adaptasi danMitigasi

Perubahan Iklim

Joseph Viandrito, SE, Msi.

Fakultas Ekonomi UNPAR Bandung

14 November 2014

Bahasan kita pagi ini:

• Apakah Perubahan Iklim itu ada atau bualan semata?

• Apa hubungannya Perubahan Iklim dengan Ilmu Ekonomi?

• Mengapa pandangan Schumpeter kian penting untuk kita?

• Apa mungkin pembangunan ekonomi tanpa fosil?

• Apa peluang kerja yang terkait Perubahan Iklim?

• Adaptasi dan Mitigasi Perubahan Iklim berbasis masyarakat itu sepertiapa?

• Sebagai akademisi, kita bisa menyumbang apa untuk adaptasi danmitigasi perubahan iklim?

Apakah Perubahan Iklim itu ada atau bualansemata?• Tahun 1998, Robert B. Laughlin, dapat Nobel bidang Fisika, yang

menegaskan tidak ada kaitannya konsumsi energi yang tinggi yang menghasilkan gas rumah kaca dengan perubahan iklim. Itu cuma halnatural, suatu siklus geologis 100 tahunan, bukan karena industry.

• Tahun 2007, Al Gore, tokoh yang rajin kampanye perubahan iklimdapat Hadiah Nobel Perdamaian

melegitimasi bahwa perubahaniklim benar adanya.

Apakah Perubahan Iklim itu ada atau bualan semata?

• Cuaca ekstrim makin seringterjadi: badai, cyclone, puting-beliung…

• Polusi udara: asap, meningkatnyaCO2

• Berkurangnya air tanah

• Seringnya tanah longsor danbanjir bandang

• Meningkatnya pencairan salju di gunung dan kutub

• Makin panas dan lamanya musimkemarau

• Naiknya temperatur udara

• Intrusi air laut ke daratan

• Naiknya permukaan air laut danhilangnya pulau-pulau

• Berubahnya musim tanam

• Seringnya gejala El Nino dan La Nina

Toba effect

• Letusan gunung Toba, 73,000 tahun laluberdampak serius, tidak hanya pada iklimglobal, tapi juga sejarah umat manusia.

• Gunung Toba menyemburkan 2,800 km3 material debu ke udara. Bandingkandengan letusan Gunung Tambora yang hanya 20 km3.dan Gunung St. Helena yang hanya 1 km3.. Akibatnya, cahaya mataharitak bisa menembus bumi selama 6 tahun, hingga bumi mengalami jaman esselama 1,000 tahun. Populasi manusiamerosot jadi hanya 10,000 orang.

• “Out of Africa” dansampailah di Indonesia

Dampak Perubahan Iklim

Climate Change Effects Impacts on Indonesia

Sea Level Rise

Ocean Warming

Increased Temperature

Increased Rainfall

Increased Evaporation

Increased Tropical Storms

Disappearing Small Islands

Salt Water Intrusion

Decline in Fisheries Harvest

Loss of Biodiversity

Increased Fire Risk

Increased Disease Risk, Range

Floods and Land Slides

Changes in Planting Season

Drought, Food Security

Transport Vulnerability

Food and Water Scarcity

Changes in mean climate,

variability, extreme events

and sea level rise

Impact on poverty and

national development

planning targetsImpact on the eight MDG

Increased temperature and

changes in precipitation

reduce agricultural and

natural resources

Change in precipitation, run-

off and variability leads to

greater water stress

Increased incidence or

intensity of climate related

disasters lead to damage to

assets and infrafstructure

Temperature, water and

vegetation changes

contribute to increase

prevalence of disease

Lowered industrial output

and labour productivity,

high inequality, impacts

on trade, and fiscal and

macro-economic growth,

and poverty-reducing

effects

Reduced productivity

and security of poor

people‟s livelihood

assets, and reduced

access for the poor to

their livelihood assets

Less effective coping

strategies among the

poor, and increased

vulnerability of poor

people

1. Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger

Food security jeopardized, more intense disasters threaten livelihood

2. Achieve universal primary education

More vulnerable livelihoods means more children engaged in employment;

infrastructure damage from disasters

3. Promote gender equality and empower women

Women make up two-thirds of world’s poor and are more adversely

impacted by disasters.

4. Reduce child mortality

Children more vulnerable to malaria and other diseases, which are spread

more widely by climate change

5. Improve maternal health

Pregnant woman particularly susceptible to malaria

6. Combat HIV/ AIDS, malaria and other diseases

Increase prevalence of mosquito-bone diseases

7. Ensure environmental sustainability

Climate change indication of unsustainable practices. Move toward more

energy-efficient model of consumption

8. Promote global Partnerships

Wider forums must acknowledge the role of climate change in impacting

MDGs

s

Impact on Indonesia

Deforestation rate (2000 – 2005) -> 2,8 Million Ha/year & Forest fire (West Borneo in 2006) -> loss of 91 Million USD (source: www.beritabumi.or.id)

Flood (February 2007) result in 8 Billion USD loss (source: www.detikfinance.com) Landslide -> 80 Million USD/year Human health : Dengue, Malaria, Diarrhea Landslide: There were > 1,400 disasters in the period of 2003-2005 and around 53%

related to hydro-meteorology (34% was flooding and 16% landslide) Rise of Sea Level The disappearing of small Island -> within 2005 – 2007, 24 small islands

disappear, the location:

• 3 island in Nanggroe Aceh Darussalam (NAD)

• 3 island in Papua

• 5 island in Riau

• 2 island in west sumatera

• 7 island in the coastal area of Jakarta (source: Ministry of Oceanary & Fishery)

Drought (Cirebon District in 2006) result in loss of 8.6Million USD (source: http://greenpena.blogspot.com)

During El Nino years (1994, 1997,2002, 2003, 2004 and 2006) shown that 8 reservoirs in Java have produced electricity below normal capacities

During El Nino 1997 has caused serious problems to coral reef ecosystems where 90-95% of coral reefs at the depth of 25m have experienced coral bleaching

Impact on Indonesia - Drought The availability of water is very dependent on the climate, due to the limited

supply of water (only covers about 37% of urban population and 8% of rural population) causing people and industries use deep groundwater resources land subsidence that creates areas vulnerable to flood and salt water intrusion

Bye-bye sukuAsmat, Bintuni, Pontianak, Banjarmasin, Palembang, Semarang, Surabaya, Jakarta….

Kalau air laut naik 2 feet (70 cm) di 2050, bagaimana wajah Indonesia?

Jakarta

Coastal

Region

in 2050

a

Mitigasi dan Adaptasi, apa bedanya?

• Respon perubahan iklim yang telah, sedang, dan akan terjadi adalah denganmelakukan upaya mitigasi perubahan iklim untuk mengatasi penyebab perubahaniklim, dan upaya adaptasi terhadap perubahan iklim untuk mengatasi akibat ataudampak perubahan iklim.

Mitigasi dan Adaptasi – definisi

• Mitigasi - suatu intervensi antropogenik (yang dilakukan manusia) untukmengurangi tekanan yang berasal dari manusia pada sistem iklim; inimencakup strategi-strategi untuk mengurangi sumber-sumber dan emisi-emisi gas rumah kaca serta upaya untuk meningkatkan penyerap gas rumahkaca

• Adaptasi - penyesuaian dalam sistem alam atau sistem manusia sebagairespons terhadap stimulus iklim yang aktual telah ada atau yang diperkirakan akan terjadi atau pengaruh-pengaruh dari stimulus tersebut, yang dapat mengurangi kerugian atau memberi peluang yang menguntungkan. Tindakan adaptasi dilakukan untuk mengurangi dampak negatif dan mengambil mafaat positifnya. Dengan kata lain mengelola hal yang tidak dapat dihindari, keniscayaan perubahan iklim.

• Perubahan iklim akan mempengaruhi risiko bencana dalam duahal, pertama dengan meningkatnya ancaman-ancaman cuaca daniklim, dan kedua dengan meningkatkan kerentanan masyarakatterhadap ancaman-ancaman bahaya alam, terutama melalui degradasiekosistem, serta perubahan-perubahan dalam penghidupanmasyarakat.

• Perubahan iklim juga akan menambah tekanan lain terhadappenurunan kualitas lingkungan hidup dan pertumbuhan perkotaan yang cepat dan tidak terencana baik, yang selanjutnya akan semakinmengurangi kemampuan masyarakat untuk mengatasi bahkan tingkatancaman cuaca yang ada saat ini.

Apa resikonya mengabaikan perubahan iklim?

PerubahanEnergi

PEMANASANGLOBAL

• Kelembapan• Angin• Perawanan

• Hujan• Suhu• Penguapan

PERUBAHANIKLIM

Mi gasi

Adaptasi:Menghadapidampak–mengelolayang dakbisadihindariMi gasi:Menghadapipenyebab–menghindariyang dakbisadikelola

PerubahanSiklusAir

Adaptasi

DAMPAKFISIK

DAMPAKNON-FISIK

GASRUMAHKACA

TANGGAP

• KebakaranHutan

• TanahLongsor

• Kekeringan

• Banjir

• KenaikanMukaAirLaut

• Badai/Pu ngBeliung

• Energi

• Kesehatan

• Infrastruktur

• Transportasi

• Pariwisata

• Irigasi

2. Apa hubungannya Perubahan Iklimdengan Ilmu Ekonomi?

Klasik, Keynes dan Schumpeter

• Mazhab klasik:

Untuk memenuhi kebutuhan diperlukanfaktor-faktor produksi:

• Tanah koloni, penjajahan

• Modal wabah cari emas

• Sumber daya alam rempah-rempah

• Tenaga kerja perbudakan

Tangan tak kelihatan yang akanmengatur segala sesuatunya menjadiefisien.

Ekonomi otomatis akan mencapaiequilibrium. Tapi kok ada stagflasi?

Keynes bilang, negara tidakboleh sepenuhnya lepastangan, perlu campur-tanganlewat intervensi fiscal

Schumpeter bilang:Itu semua tidak cukup. Pertumbuhan bisa terjadi hanyalewat: evolusikelembagaan, kewirausahaandan inovasi teknologi yang terus-menerus.

• James Watt adalah bagian dari kelas menengah masyarakat yang sedang tumbuh, haus pengetahuan, ingin cepat kaya melaluiterobosan inovasi.

• Tahun 1760 (9 tahun sebelum ditemukan mesin uap), Inggrismengimpor 1,000 ton kapas. Tahun 1850, impor kapas jadi 220,000 ton. Apa cerita selanjutnya? Cari pasar! (cari jajahan)

• Datanglah era Revolusi Industri di Barat, yang secara rakusmengkonsumsi bahan bakar dari fosil: batubara, gas dan minyakbumi.

Revolusi Industri – sang biang keladi

Mengapa revolusi industri tidak bermula di China, tapimalah Inggris, padahal ada banyak penemuan penting?

Penemuan dan inovasi di China:Mata bajak – abad 6 SM, Besi tuang/cor – 4 SM, Ubah besi tuang jadi baja –2 SM, Jembatan gantung – 1 SM, Kemudi – 1 M, Pintu air – 10 M, Mesinpintal – 12 M

Bahkan 71 tahun sebelum Columbus menemukan Amerika dengan tiga kapalkecilnya, Laksamana Ceng Ho dengan lebih dari 100 kapal besar sudahberlayar hingga Afrika, Amerika, Australia, Antartika

Ini sejalan dengan Teori Karl Marx bahwa faktor Social politik berperandalam menentukan arah keputusan ekonomi. Kondisi sospol ini menghalangiinovasi yang semestinya bisa meningkatkan keunggulan komparatifnya. perlu perjuangan kelas.

Mengapa revolusi industri tidak terjadi di Indonesia?• Kerajaan-kerajaan lama masih bermazhab merkantilis, hingga

datangnya penjajah yang justru menegaskan mazhab itu.

• Di jaman modern, lingkungan sosio-politik (seperti oligarki kekuasaandengan kolusi, korupsi & nepotismenya) sangat berpengaruh. Lihatlah Indonesia 1998, yang tadinya digadang-gadang jadi The New Emerging Tiger (PDB per kapita $1050 - 1996), malah jadi The New Beggar ($400 - 1998)

• Ulangan saat Raja Jawa (Pakubuwono) harus bayar VOC 10,000 real tiap tahunselama 20 tahun, dan 1,700 ton beras tiap tahun, 15,000 real untuk biayaitentara VOC yang menjaga kerajaan. Plus kekuasaan atas seluruh daerahpesisir utara untuk VOC.

Pertumbuhan ekonomi cuma 5 – 7%. Bisa lebih nggak sih?

• Kapal besar disubsidi malah jual solar. Ikan dicuri

• Perijinan didagangin. Pajak dimainin

• Infus (subsidi) ke perbankan untuk menyehatkan (BLBI/Century), malah infusnya yang di-”sikat”.

• Kredit untuk masyarakat untuk berinvestasi, malah lebih banyak untuk konsumsi.

• APBN dan APBD tidak memberi insentif fiscal, karena porsi anggaran rutinnya terlaludominanmoratorium PNS 5thn.

• Masyarakat tidak kreatif, apalagi inovatif, malah konsumtif: impor garam(Gandhi?), impor minyak, impor beras, impor buah, impor daging.

• Indonesia selalu juara sebagai negara paling terkorup (Transparancy International)

• Ikut pakta perdagangan bebas, tapi tidak siap jadi produsen, lebih siap jadi konsumen

• Jual sumber daya alam mentahan habis-habisan, tapi ingin dilihat dunia sebagaipenyelamat iklim (sekarang dia berhasil jadi Ketua GGGI)

Besarnya ‘Konsumsi’ katanya menyelamatkanIndonesia saat krisis ekonomiJika semua warga negara di bumi bergaya hidup seperti orang Amerika, diperlukan 4,16 bumi. Kalau ikut gaya hidup India Cuma 0,49 bumi. Gaya hidup Indonesia? Bandung?

• Konsumsi tinggi, tapi duitnya cuma dari menjual bahan mentah. Mending kalau stoknya banyak.

• Barang tambang dan minyak terus dikeduk, dijual sebanyak-banyaknya (hanya sampai 2014?) pertumbuhan ekonomi tinggi

(Of the existing 10,566 mining license (IUP), only 4,151 permits that declared as clean and clear).

Overview of major regulatory frameworks on mining...there appears to be a power struggle: Nationalist vs. Localist, Protectionist vs. Liberalist...

Resource

Nationalism

Pressure &

„Hattanomics‟

took a lead

National

Government

Fights

National

Government

Fights Back

Introduce

the CoW

framework

Power struggle:

National vs.

Local govt. &

Nationalist vs.

Liberalist

Regional

Autonomy

Law No. 22

& 25 of

1999, and

No. 32 of

2004

Law No.

9/2009 on

Coal and

Mineral

Mining (the

Mining Law).

Illegal Mining

and Bad

Mining

Practices,

Rush to

Export Raw

Material

Ministerial

Regulation

No. 7/2012

on the

increase in

Value Added/

Smelter

Huge

Mining

Investment

Drives

Competition

ANI and

APKASI

Won a

judicial

Review

from MA

towards

PP 7/2012

ESDM

Minister

Regulation

No. 11/

2012 and

No. 24/2012

?

Small miners

are dying

Disputes

on Mining

Permits,

Extensive

Illegal

Mining,

Illegal

Logging,

Corruption s

Finance Minister

Regulation

75/2012

20% tariff on

exports of 65

types of

minerals

PP No

24/2012:

Divestment

Policy 51%

PP No 23/2010:

Divestment

Policy 20%Pro Market

Supporters:

“Back to the Law

No. 11/1967”

Localist &

Pro Market

Fight

Trade Ministry

Regulation No

29/2012: Tariff

for 65 minerals

Mining Law 1967

CoW status

changes, smelter,

divestment, more

revenue & bigger

role of national

government over

local govt.

Presidential Decree No. 3

of 2012 – Establishment

of “Contract of Work

Renegotiation” Team)

Big Miners

complaints, e

ven some

refused the

smelter policy

Mining in the years aheadHuge investment, but unprepared companies

and small miners are dying

The Power of Regional Autonomy

- and the risk for WBN -

The regional authorities of the provinces, regencies and municipalities shall administer and manage their own

affairs according to the principles of regional autonomy and the duty of

assistance

(1945 CONSTITUTION Article 18 (2)

Many mining companies operate inside or close to WBN mining areas. Theyalready have IPPKH (Permits for Forest Borrow & Use for mining exploration activity - Izin Pinjam Pakai Kawasan Hutan Untuk Kegiatan EksplorasiTambang) from the Ministry of Forestry:

1. PT Adita Nickel Indonesia (#1)2. PT Adidaya Tangguh (#2 – Blok 6, dan #3 – Blok A1) 3. PT Bintara Hardasurya #4 – Blok D1, dan #6 – Blok D4)4. PT Gane Tambang Sentosa (#7)5. PT Indotama Mineral Indonesia (#11 – Blok H 3)6. PT Nusa Halmahera Minerals (#12)7. PT Zouk (#15 – Blok G2)(Source: Forestry Ministry)

• How are their ties with the local government? • Who owns those companies?

Note: WBN informed that the area has been deemed by the government as “clean and clear”, meaning that it does not overlap with other mining companies.

The provincial government has the right to cancel the license if the mining

activities destroy the environment (Law No. 32 of 2009 on the Protection and

Management of the Environment).

State-Owned Enterprise and Foreign Enterprises usually lose in court against local governments: 1). PT Tambang Batu Bara Bukit Asam Tbk. lost against 16 new mining licenses in Lahat South Sumatera. 2) PT Aneka Tambang Tbk. (Antam) lost against one local company in Konawe Utara. 3) Rio Tinto Indonesia lost against 14 new mining licenses in Morowali, Sulawesi Tengah. 4). PT Inco Tbk lost against PT Hotman Internasional in Morowali

5). Churchill Inc. lost against PT Nusantara (owned by Prabowo) in East Kutai.

Hai calon SarjanaEkonomi, apapandanganmu?

Realisasi Pengeluaran Kota Cilegon Menurut JenisTahun Anggaran 2011

• Pendapatan asli daerah hanya berkontribusi29,50% atau sekitar Rp253,212,004,831 daritotal pendapatan daerah sebesarRp858,320,973,326.

• Belanja Rutin = 81 %, Belanja Modal = 19%, Takterduga = 0.1%

• Apa kerjanya orang yang sudah menghabiskan81% itu, dan pembangunan macam apa denganhanya menyisihkan 19%?.

• Apa masih perlu kita membayar pajak, kalauternyata tidak dialokasikan untukpembangunan?

Inovasi itu rohnya pertumbuhan ekonomi

• Peran faktor produksi terhadap pertumbuhan

Sumber: Science and Technology Policy Institute

Inovasi adalah hasil kerja kreatif yang memerlukan kegigihan , eksperimen sertaanalisis cermat dan akhirnya dapat dimanfaatkan oleh users/konsumen

Faktor produksi 1970-an 1980-an 1990-an

Tenaga kerja & modal

79,2% 63,9% 58,5%

Inovasi 20,8% 36,1% 41,5%

Pilih jadi bangsa perakit, pembuat ataupemulung?• Dari “made-in” ke “innovated-in”

• Klaster teknologi tumbuh seperti jamur. Mengikuti pola Silicon Valley, Cina bikin klasterserupa di Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, dll (12 kota); India di Bangalore, Daedeok di Korea, Hsinchu di Taiwan dan Biopolis di Singapura.

• Klaster teknologi China berhasil menarik 12,000 perusahaan hi-tech, termasuk 43 perusahaan hi-tech dunia seperti Microsoft, Intel, Google, NEC.

• Bagaimana Indonesia? • Indonesia berencana membangun Bandung High Tech Valley (1996) tapi dihajar

KrisMon, Sekarang baru digagas lagi Bandung Raya Innovation Valley (BRIV), tapi masih tidakjelas.

• Konsumen rakus produk teknologi, seperti smartphone, computer, dll. bikinan China• Menurut Laporan World Economic Forum 2012-2013, ada 5 besar penghambat daya saing

Indonesia: Inefisiensi birokrasi, Korupsi, infrastruktur rendah, akses pembiayaan, inflasi.• Pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia mengandalkan ekspor bahan mentah (termasuk bahan

bakar fosil) dan konsumsi, tanpa dorongan inovasi/entrepreneurship dan produksi

Zizhu chuangxin !!(inovasi di tangan sendiri, di tanah sendiri)

• Dari “made-in” ke “innovated-in”• Klaster teknologi tumbuh seperti jamur. Mengikuti pola Silicon Valley, Cina bikin

klaster serupa di Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, dll (12 kota); India juga bikin di Bangalore, Daedeok di Korea, Hsinchu di Taiwan dan Biopolis di Singapura.

• Klaster teknologi di China berhasil menarik 12,000 perusahaan hi-tech, termasuk 43 perusahaan hi-tech dunia seperti Microsoft, Intel, Google, NEC.

• Dana riset terus meningkat: 1,49% GDP (2007) 2,5% (2020)

• Insentif penemuan baru yang dipatenkan pemotongan pajak 25%

• Jumlah paten melonjak 73%: 99,278 (2001) 171.619 (2005)

• Bandingkan pertumbuhan paten di AS 6%, Korsel 5%, Eropa 4%, Jepang 1%

Bagaimana Indonesia? • Indonesia: Dana Riset 1% PDB. Sarjana teknik 11,5%, Sarjana sains 3,6%

• Indonesia berencana membangun Bandung High Tech Valley (1996) tapi dihajarKrisMon, Sekarang baru digagas lagi Bandung Raya Innovation Valley (BRIV), tapi masihtidak jelas.

• Konsumen rakus produk teknologi, seperti smartphone, computer, dll. bikinan China

• Menurut Laporan World Economic Forum 2012-2013, ada 5 besar penghambat dayasaing Indonesia: Inefisiensi birokrasi, Korupsi, infrastruktur rendah, aksespembiayaan, inflasi.

• Pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia mengandalkan ekspor bahan mentah (termasukbahan bakar fosil) dan konsumsi, tanpa dorongan inovasi/entrepreneurship danproduksi.

• Meski demikian ada hasil karya Indonesia cukup membanggakan: Panser Anoa buatanPindad dibeli Malaysia, Fast Patrol Boat buatan PT PAL dibeli Timor Leste, PT Dirgantara bikin pesawat amfibi, Kereta Kedinasan Presiden RI dibikin PT Inka. PT PAL buat kapalbarang Star 50 berbobot 50.000 ton dijual ke Jerman.

Bercita-cita mencapai PDB 3,7 trilyun dollar di tahun 2025. PDB 2010 masih $419 milyar. Apa nggak ketinggian mimpinya?Bisa, asal ikut kata Schumpeter: Terus berinovasi. Tapi kok….

1. Masih kurang insentif dan dukungan regulasi• Proses persetujuan paten 1,5 – 3 tahun + biaya registrasi Rp2,5 juta• Tidak ada insentif atau potongan pajak buat industry yang alokasikan dana litbang

atau inovasi produk.

2. Komunikasi dan interaksi kalangan akademisi dan bisnis masih lemah• Kalangan bisnis masih enggan memanfaatkan hasil riset akademisi. Masih lebih

senang jualan barang asing/distributorship yang sudah diriset asing.• Kapasitas riset universitas tidak dimanfaatkan (diajak kerjasama, untuk riset pasar)

kasus produk “Halalku”.

3. Technopreneurship masih kurang• Kalangan UKM – techno preneurship di Taiwan menyumbang 31% omzet national

sales dan 75% employment di sektor swasta.

4. Tidak ada klaster inovasi yang tersebar.• Perlu hati-hati memaknai jargon “mari kita

tingkatkan investasi asing”, kalau itu hanyaberarti kita jadi tukang rakit, tidak akan berguna. Inovasi adalah kunci.

• Masing-masing daerah punya keunikan. Contoh: Indonesia Timur bisa melakukan banyak inovasikelautan. Seperti di Larantuka, Sucofindoberinovasi membuat pembangkit listrik tenagaarus laut, tapi terhambat besarnya dana risetdan economies of scale.

• Riset tentang potensi sumber daya laut untukmedis belum dilakukan.

5. Remunerasi peneliti (innovator) terlalu kecil.• Gaji pokok Profesor Gol. IV/E di LIPI sebesar

Rp3,6 juta + tunjangan Rp1,6 juta = Rp5,2 jutaper bulan. Bandingkan dengan gaji Guru SD golongan IV/A di Serang dengan take home pay = Rp6,5 juta per bulan. Di Malaysia, peneliti tingkatprofessor = Rp36 juta. Di Jepang = Rp60 juta. Honor konsultan riset individual di Indonesia = $400 – $1,000 per hari.

6. Fasilitas litbang tidak memadai• Lihatlah Puspiptek Serpong yang

mangkrak

7. Manajemen litbang tidak kondusif• Banyak lembaga riset jalan sendiri-sendiri:

BBSDLP, LIPI, dll.

• Kita lihat apakah pembentukanKementerian Baru yang menyatuanPerguruan Tinggi dengan Ristek bakalmemperbaiki koordinasi dan manajemenlitbang.

Kapasitas Ekonomi Indonesia 2012 2030

Peringkat Perekonomian Dunia 16 7

Penduduk Kelas Konsumen 45 juta 135 juta

Penduduk yang tinggal di perkotaan 53% 71%

Sumbangan terhadap PDB 74% 86%

• Sumber: Mc Kinsey 2012

Membuat dan menjual apa yang dibutuhkan. Tidak lebih.• Frugal innovation

Scenario: • Sedikitnya sumber daya• Lemahnya daya beli• Besarnya kebutuhan

Muncul inovasi produk yang terjangkau: Mobil Tata Motors (india) = Rp18 juta, Kacamata, jam tangan danmotor murah dari China, motor ambulans dari Afsel. Operasi by-pass jantung di Bangalore, India cuma$7,500, bandingkan dengan di Amerika $144 ribu. RS yang spesifik dan tidak perlu membeli peralatan super mahal yang tidak dibutuhkan, membuat harga operasi jadi murah. Turbin pembangkit listrik mikrohidro“Hanjuang” karya Eddy Permadi (Desa Cihanjuang, Cimahi) jadi murah karena komponen local, sehinggamudah dirawat, diganti onderdilnya.

• Crowd sourcing Penjaringan ide berhadiah: • www.apaidemu.org• IBM’s Global Innovation Jam

Apa peluang kerja yang terkait PerubahanIklim?

• Bidang pangan: Inovasi pupuk organic (biofertilizer), membuat database mikroba local, database benih lokal, bidang biologi molekuler: Benih unggultahan iklim. Sejauh ini Balai Benih Padi dan Sereal Maros baru temukan benihjagung kaya vitamin A.

• Bidang kesehatan: riset biologi berbasis keanekaragaman hayati dan budayaIndonesia, buat database vaksin (flu burung, bisaular, campak, dll.), inventarisasi sumber daya genetic (darat dan laut).

• Bidang energy: riset teknologi renewable energy aplikatif per daerah(angin, surya, arus laut, gelombang laut, biomassa, biodiesel, dll) - masa nunggu dana hibah

• Helping especially

poor, vulnerable

communities ADAPT

to climate change.

1.MITIGATING climate

change through multiple-

benefit projects that also

support adaptation

activities.

1.ADVOCATING for

just policies to

mitigate climate

change and support

poor communities‟

adaptation efforts

• Embarking on a process of

ORGANIZATIONAL

CHANGE to adapt policies

and procedures to the

realities of climate change

We can

contribute

through:

• Bidang air bersih: bersinergi dengan semua stakeholders, buat regulasi yang jaga sumber mata air (bukan buat industry air kemasan saja), mendorongpenerapan teknologi applikatif untuk menjaga sungai, danau, setu daripencemaran kimbah dan sampah.

• Bidang sosial: mendukung Desa mandiri energy, desa pemanfaat air KasusDesa klotok, tuban

• Bidang ekonomi: Pegawai/Pejabat fungsional di Kementerian (menyiasatimoratorium PNS), Konsultan desa 1 M per desa, CSR perusahaan, peluangLelang jabatan track record and hands-on experience jadi penting.

Apa mungkin pembangunanekonomi tanpa fosil?• Saat ini 85% produksi masih bergantung

pasokan energi fosil. Duniamenghabiskannya dengan sangatcepat, meski “proses membuatnya” butuhwaktu ratusan juta tahun.

• Fossil fuels take millions of years to make. We are using up the fuels that were made more than 300 million years ago. So, it's best to not waste fossil fuels. They are not renewable; they can't really be made again. We can save fossil fuels by conserving energy.

“Oil Shock” tahun 1970-an. Apa akibatnya bagi dunia?

• Negara OPEC mengembargo minyak. Harga pun melonjak.

• Denmark menerapkan pajak karbon dan banting setir ke energy angin Denmark today is the world's leading exporter of wind turbines and has an unemployment rate of about 2 percent.

• Shah Iran memacu modernisasi, malah backfire dan memicu revolusi Islam. Ayatollah Khomeini jadi popular dengan melakukan subsidi harga minyak keseluruh negeri. (Iran's government earned $44.6 billion from oil exports and spent $25 billion on subsidies).

• Negara-negara Eropa dan Jepang merespons dengan manaikkan pajak bensin. Jepang secaradrastis melakukan efisiensi energy.

• Brazil segera memproduksi ethanol dari gula tebu dan sekarang tidak lagi bergantung pada imporminyak.

• America In 1975, Congress passed the Energy Policy and Conservation Act, which established corporate average fuel economy (CAFE) standards that required vehicle efficiency for new cars—to 27.5 miles per gallon—within ten years.

• Uni Soviet, the world's second-largest oil producer, makin kuat mencengkeram Eropa Timurhingga Afghanistan.

“Enak jamanku, tho?” Opo iyo, mbah?

• Bagi Indonesia, jaman itu bukan oil shock, tapi oil boom.

• Pemerintahan Suharto ditolong oleh oil boom tahun 1970-an. Banyak duit untukmenggerakkan roda pembangunan. Minyak dikuras, disisakan sedikit buat kitasekarang.

• Cadangan minyak Indonesia cuma 9 milyar barrel. Tiap tahun diambil 500 jutabarrel. Ya sudah habis dalam 18 tahun.

• Kecukupan pangan karena revolusi hijau, tanah dipacu untuk menghasilkan dengandihamburi pupuk kimia. Memang terjadi kecukupan hasil (enak jamanku, tho?)…. Tapi setelah itu tanah menurun produktivitasnya akibat pupuk kimia yang berlebihjamannya Suharto (Ora enak jamanku saiki, goro-goro jamanmu, mbah…) proyekFAO di NTT/NTB.

• Tahun 2000, Indonesia perlu 30,8 juta ton beras dan 4,62 juta ton protein hewani. Di tahun 2020, saat penduduk 288 juta orang, kebutuhan beras jadi 42,3 juta ton dan protein hewani 6,34 juta ton.

"When oil prices became higher, the reforms became slower”

• Suharto, Brezhnev, dan banyak diktator… diberkati olehharga minyak yang tinggi. Saat harga jatuh, jatuh jugamereka…

• Akhir decade 1980-an, harga minyak Cuma $10 – $40 per barrel. Hal itu cukup untuk merobohkan tembok Berlin di tahun 1989, memecah-belah negara Soviet, dan akhirnyamenjatuhkan Suharto.

Paman Sam ngomong ke Arab Saudi:

• “Guys, here's the deal: Keep your pumps open, keep your prices low, and don't bother the Jews too much, and you can do whatever you want out back. You can treat your women badly. You can deprive your people of what­ ever civil rights you like. You can print whatever crazy conspiracy theo­ries about us you like. You can educate your children to be intolerant of other faiths as much as you like.. . . Only one thing we want from you: Just keep your pumps open, your prices low, don't hassle the Israelis too much—and do whatever you want out back."

• THOMAS L. FRIEDMAN - “Hot, Flat, and Crowded”

Kita masih tergantung energy fosil. Lalu pilihannya apa?

Komponen Energi 2005

Batubara Minyak Gas Terbarukan

Energi Nuklir – Direncanakan tahun 2016 berdiri PLTN Gunung Muria

masih ditentang masyarakat

Energi Gas – Tahun 1986 digaungkanprogram langit biru.Lho kok jumlah mobil gas malah turun: 6,000 mobil BBG (2000) jadi 2,500 mobilBBG (2008) stasiun pengisian masihterbatas.Petro China kuasai lading gas di Jambi, 2/3 energy Singapore tergantung pasokan dariJambi.

• Energi Gelombang Laut: Indonesia punya garis pantai 81.290 km, bisaproduksi energy 70 Giga Watt. (PLN tahun 2011 = 35 GW). Balai PengkajianDinamika Pantai (BPDP) di Yogyakarta sudah bangu8n prototype belumdidukung pemerintah pembuatannya.

• Energi angin: sejauh ini baru menghasilkan 1,8 Mega Watt dari total potensi 9,29 Giga Watt

• Energi Surya: belum digarap. HIVOS dan MCA baru merintis di PulauSumba.

• Energi Panas Bumi: Potensi total 28.803 Giga Watt• Energi biomassa: sampah, limbah kelapa sawit• Energi biogas: kotoran ternak• Energi air: mikro-hydro• Energi arus laut: Sucofindo sudah bikin. Feasibility study di Larantuka

sudah. Tapi masih tidak ekonomis.

Nasib Mobil Listrik

• Dasep Ahmadi, anak Depok, ciptakan mobil listrik “Ahmadi 5.0” tahun2012.

• Jarak tempuh 150 km, cukup sekali charging 4 – 5 jam

• Pakai baterai lithium ion 36 buah kapasitas 21 kWh.

• Komponen impor masih 50%, PPN 10%, tanpa insentifpemerintah, jadinya harga on-the-road = Rp200 jutaan, tapi biayaoperasional cuma Rp50-60 ribu per bulan, jarena tak beli BBM.

• Persoalannya pengisian listriknya agak report, dan tidak adaStasiun Pengisian Listrik

Nasib Yoshua masih lebih baik ketimbang Dasep

• Mark Yoshua Widjaya, lulusan ITS, bikin rancangan mobil.

• Rencananya mau bikin sendiri, tapi dihitung-hitung besar biayanya. Lagipula tidak ada subsidi dan insentif pajak dari pemerintah, lalu iajual rancangannya ke Astra Internasional dan Daihatsu, jadilah mobilAGYA dan AYLA.

Sebagai akademisi, kita bisa menyumbang apauntuk adaptasi dan mitigasi perubahan iklim?

• Brand image UI, ITB, UGM. Unpar?

• Adakah skripsi yang membahas:

Sustainable economy, forest management, Valuing Benefit of Mangroves Forest, Maritime sector, Economics of Global Warming, Sustainable Waste Management of Kali Cikapundung, Stakeholder Mapping of Leather Industry in Garut, Cost and Benefit of Land Acquisition of Chandra Asri, “Economy of exclusion”…

Pope Francis: “No to an economy of exclusion”Just as the commandment “Thou shalt not kill” sets a clear limit in order to safeguard the value of human life, today we also have to say “thou shalt not” to an economy of exclusion and inequality. Such an economy kills. How can it be that it is not a news item when an elderly homeless person dies of exposure, but it is news when the stock market loses two points? This is a case of exclusion. Can we continue to stand by when food is thrown away while people are starving? This is a case of inequality.

Today everything comes under the laws of competition and the survival of the fittest, where the powerful feed upon the powerless. As a consequence, masses of people find themselves excluded and marginalized: without work, without possibilities, without any means of escape.

Human beings are themselves considered consumer goods to be used and then discarded. We have created a “throw away” culture which is now spreading. It is no longer simply about exploitation and oppression, but something new. Exclusion ultimately has to do with what it means to be a part of the society in which we live; those excluded are no longer society’s underside or its fringes or its disenfranchised – they are no longer even a part of it. The excluded are not the “exploited” but the outcast, the “leftovers”.

Adaptasi dan Mitigasi Perubahan Iklimberbasis masyarakat itu seperti apa?

Diambil dari presentasi

“Adapting to Climate Change in Western and Eastern Indonesia”

Lessons-learned from Coastal Communities in Aceh

and Climate Smart Farmers in NTB/NTT

By: JOSEPH VIANDRITO

Presented in ASIA – EUROPE MEETING (ASEM)

Manila Conference on Disaster Risk Reduction and Management

4-6 June 2014

What we saw on the way to Tacloban...

This picture tells us a story….

After Yolanda/Haiyan typhoon, the soil have been salinated or may have water intrusion from the sea. This has fostered the colonization of acrostichum (mangrove family) that may replaced/took overthe dying coconut plants colony.

The soil condition may now more adaptive for planting mangrove and its mangrove family (Acrostychum, Acantus, Sonneratia, Casuarina, Bruguiera, etc.), and may no longer adaptive for coconut plants.

What we saw on the way to Tacloban...

The ideal soil for planting coconut is sandy soil, ashy mountain and clay soil, with a soil pH 5.2 – 8. and has a crumb structure so that the roots can develop properly. Long drought causes production reduced by 50%, while high humidity causes fungal disease.

What we saw on the way to Tacloban...

•Only two type of plants: Coconut and Nypa. No mangrove, no casuarina...•Coconut colony is rapidly replaced (took over) by Nypa Palm colony•Nypa Palm trees are looked faster in self-recovery after typhoon, than coconut trees.

What we saw on the way to Tacloban...

•No mangrove •Road construction along the river may endanger communities, if there is no wall/protection constructed/grow.

Most of coconut trees in Tacloban seems in the old age of production....So this may be the right time to replant a more productive coconut trees, IF we can prepare the right environment for them to grow... (don’t let acrostichum or nypacolonize the coconut zones)

Besides, planting mangrove (Rhizopora sp.) may be a good alternative livelihood income for communities, since Philippines still depends on import of mangroves wood (the skin part), that used as ingredient to mix it with coconut sap in order to make ‘baloc’ and ‘tuba’ (Philippines’ traditional liquor)

Typhoon Haiyan has made coconut production in Philippines dropped by more than 30%. How do we handle this?

Indonesia experience

What kind of Climate Adaptation strategy that may protect Tacloban

people from the next typhoon?

What kinds of technology and innovation, that applicable to

communities and local government?

• 1st case: technology and innovation in mangrove planting, like study of hidrology, autecology and propagule disbursement. Aceh case (Western Indonesia)

• 2nd case: the usage of technology and innovation in predicting rainfall for community’s planting season, and strategy in influencing government and people to use the rainfall modelling NTT/NTB case (Eastern Indonesia).

This presentation would try to answer below questions:

Western and Eastern Indonesia What makes it difference?

Western and Eastern Indonesia: Different Problems to Climate Change

• Indonesia is the world’s largest archipelago, consisting of 17,000 islands and spanning across two biogeographicregions – the IndoMalayan (the western part) and Australasian (the eastern part).

When the Western Indonesia get rainy season, the eastern part still

suffer by the drought

Main problems related to climate change:

In western Indonesia:

Deforestation, Forest Fires, Degradation of Peat Land and Land Conversion The Causes of Climate Change.

In eastern Indonesia:

Excessive Drought / Temperature Increase, Floods / Intense Rainfall, Sea Level Rise and Threat to Food Security The Impacts of Climate Change

Just like: the western Indonesia people did it, the eastern people get the impact…

Indonesia Government’s Climate Change Adaptation Priority

• Indonesia assigns priority to climate change adaptation programs in the four following areas:

(i) coastal areas,

(ii) food insecure areas in eastern Indonesia,

(iii) small islands, and

(iv) Java’s northern coast, the nation’s key rice production areas

(BAPPENAS, 2009).

CASE STUDY 1: Coastal Communities Adaptation

in Eastern IndonesiaMangrove Rehabilitation

in Singkil and Simeulue, Aceh

The Need for Climate Change Adaptation in Coastal Areas

Coastal areas are among the areas most affected by sea-level rise and landsubsidence-induced environmentaldegradation. Both have exposed coastal areas to regular flooding. Investing in coastal areas to adapt to sea-level rise, and protect the coastal communities from disaster, is a key to meet the MDGs.

Aceh (represents western Indonesia) also facing big tectonic hazards (quake, tsunami) also stormsurge and typhoon. Therefore through many projects, people and government respond through supporting climate adaptation practices in coastal zones. This includes planting soft barriers like mangrove trees; create programs to reduce deforestation and forest degradation in peatland; and find out new sources of livelihoods;

Donors, governments, UN, and NGOs have invested a lots of money in mangroves planting projects to respond to significant drop of Indonesia mangrove forest, from 3,7 million hectares (1993) to 1,5 million hectares (2005).

Why mangroves rehabilitation projects, that supported by government and donors, are failed in many areas?

Aim of this presentation:

If all these following challenges and risks are well noted since the beginning of project, the higher rate of mangrove planting would be better, as we did in Aceh.

LESSONS-LEARNING FROM MANGROVE PLANTING PROJECTS FAILURES

Mangrove Rehabilitation

The Causes of Failure

Many kinds of mangroves species... But why only Rhizopora sp. to be planted?

1. Monoculture of mangrove planting Rhizopora oriented

2. Beachfront planting blocks natural seeds flow and grow

Ministry of Forestry spend huge of funds for Mangrove Rehabilitation Projects, but most of them are dying or failed...

Why? It is wrong to plant mangroves like planting paddy field

3. Weak in Land Use Planning

Significant competing land uses exist by local stakeholders/ governments , economic issue is more important

4. Environments are still drastically changing (We are losing two beautiful lagoons in Cilacap – Central Java and in Singkil - Sumatera, because we are late in response...

The 1st: Segara Anakan Lake/ Lagoon, in Cilacap, Central Java (left picture) is dissapearing due to sedimentation.

No body take response action...

Government only cares with rapid onset than slow onset disaster...

The 2nd Dissapearing Beautiful Lagoon: Danau Anak Laut, Singkil, Aceh

Left picture shows natural breach that was still open in 2005. Eventually, anadditional breach has occured in the lagoon system, created by businessmen (seethe right picture). The new canal has re-directed the flow of water, which createsinternal sedimentation, as well as micro‐delta formation away from the canal.Land acquisition from palm oil business took over and give another seriuschallenge to mangrove.

5. Mangrove fails to compete with other plants colonization

• Against casuarina, coconut trees or palm trees plantation.

• No body aware and take action

6. Uplifting and Downlifting process has challenged the sustainability of mangrove planting

• Regular earthquake drives the process of land down-lifting in west coastline of Sumatera, but uplifting in Sumatera outer islands

Up-lifting of Simeulue Islands (top, left and right), Down-lifting of Singkil (below)

7. Did not care and preserve the Mother Trees.

8. Wrong asumption: Not all seashore can be planted

9. Lack of knowledge on Species Ecology and HydrologicPatterns

• Many projects are lack of attention to patterns of reproduction, propaguledistribution, and successful seedling establishment

10. Lack of local communities’ sense of belonging to maintain the mangroves forest

Mangroves grows naturally without intervention in Simeulue

(Comparison: 2006 and 2011

All they need is condusive environment to grow...

They can grow by themselves, and we do not have to spend a lot of funds to plant it

CASE STUDY 2: Climate Smart Farmers in Eastern Indonesia

Case of Climate Smart Farmers in Lombok (NTB), Sumba and West Timor (NTT)

In food insecure areas in eastern Indonesia such as NTT and NTB, strong El-Niño events normally cause the problem of false rains, shortening the length of rainy season. This condition leads to farmers experiencing repeated crop failures and rendering it possible only to plant crops once in that year.

Crop failure due to drought during the 2006/07 El-Niño forexample, increased the reliance of NTT farmers to government aid. In normal years, contribution of government aid to farmers’ total income was only 5%, but in 2006 El-Niño year, it increased to 60% (Kieft and Soekarjo, 2007).

Therefore through many projects, supporting climate adaptation practices in agriculture and water resources. Climate Smart Farmers will have to consider more crop varieties, along with better water management and storage –supported by more accurate and relevant forecasts that will help their planting and harvesting.

The Need for Climate Change Adaptation in Food Insecure Areas

Nusa Tenggara: Chronic areas for food insecurity

Disaster Risk in people’s perspective

No Identified HAZARD in any villages

West Timor

Sumba Lombok Total Villages

1 Drought and excessive rain (impact to food insecurity)

12 14 0 26

2 Landslides 11 4 4 19

3 Plant pests 0 10 0 10

4 Typhoon/ hurricane 7 3 4 14

5 Floods 3 5 0 8

6 Livestock disease 0 7 0 7

7 Earthquake 0 0 3 3

8 Prairie fires 2 3 0 5

9 Mount eruption 0 0 3 3

Total villages conducted DRA

12 14 4 42

Climate related disaster is on the top list...

To know how hard the new farming intervention would be, a baseline survey (soil and socio-economic survey) was conducted...

District Name

Number of Number of soil sample Number

of So-sec

responde

nts

District VillageFarmer

Group

Chemical

(profile)

Chemical

(composite)

Physics Biology

Lombok

Tengah 1 1 5

18 27 15 12 106

Lombok Barat 1 1 10

Lombok Timur 2 2 12

Sumba Barat 1 4 5 31 36 14 13 7

Sumba Barat

Daya4 16 24

Sumba Timur 1 1 7

Kupang 2 2 2 16 51 30 30 110

Malaka 1 3 12

Timor Tengah

Utara 1 4 33

9 14 34 11065 114 59 55 290

Challenges in marketing “new” mindset for climate smart agriculture (CSA)

• It is not easy to change the mindset of conventional agriculture into climate smart agriculture concept:

• No mechanical soil disturbance

• Permanent soil cover

• Crop rotation

Challenging to market ideas to Farmers that,

Have limited educational background: In Lombok 47.40% farmer participants are not finished elementary school while in Sumba and Timor (46.2% and 50.1% consecutively).

Have limited land ownership. In Lombok, the average dry land ownership is only 1.24 hectare per household with dominantly only single cropping pattern (82.10%). The average maize yields are 3.27 ton/hectare in Lombok. The most common land preparation by farmer is hand hoe and turning over the soil (39.5% in Lombok, 78.3% in Sumba, and 66.5% in Timor).

It is also hard to change farming practices...

• The baseline survey result also showed that mostly crop residues are intentionally burnt (43.4% in Lombok, 41.7% in Timor, and 25.5% in Sumba, which in Sumba only 38.7% respondents stated that they collect crop residue for livestock feeds. The rest is to be burned.

• In Lombok most of the farmer respondent use inorganic fertilizer for their crop (96.10% respondents) while in Sumba and Timor most farmers use organic fertilizer (56.60% in Sumba and 80.6% in Timor). In Lombok and Sumba most farmers use herbicide to control weeds (76.30% and 50.90%), while in Timor they use manual weeding (68.5%).

...and, soil fertility is low...

Level of C organic

content

Timor Lombok Sumba

Number

of sample%

Number of

sample%

Number of

sample

%

Very low (Below 1

%)24

35.82 33 76.74 22 32.84

Low (1 – 2 %) 38 56.72 10 23.26 10 14.93

Moderate (2 – 3 %) 57.46 17 25.37

High (3 – 5 %) 17 25.37

Very high above 5

%

1 1.49

Total 67 100 43 100 67 100

Soil Bio-physics Baseline Survey Results

• C organic content. Generally organic content (C in %) in almost sample site in Lombok and Timor are very low, but in Sumba generally are higher than Lombokand Timor.

The analyses result of C organic content showed that 92.54 % of soil sample from Timor have very low to low C organic content. In Lombok all soil sample have very low to low C organic content. While in Sumba 47.76 % soil sample have very low to low C organic content and 52.24 % with moderate to high C organic content.

• Climate characteristic of NTB and NTT Province.

Most areas in NTT amounting 4,334,487hectare (94.80%) and NTB 1,899,733 hectare (94.52 %) are categorized as dry area with total rainfall less than 2,000 mm per year.

To join as participants in Climate Smart Agriculture Project will certainly make them totally change their mindset and habit....

Can they?

Still, there is a hope for climate smart agriculture

• Interestingly, % farmer stated that they want to participate the project because they are interested with the methods and approach of the Climate Smart Agriculture is high: Lombok 53.9 % of respondents, Sumba 73.6 %, and Timor 82.90%.

• Why? Farmer participants expect that through CSA they will be able to improve crop yields, improve soil fertility, and have better collaboration with group members.

• In Sumba and Timor most farmers (48.10% and 73.20%) stated that their agricultural yield less sufficient for family consumption.

• Their interest to know about climate uncertainty related to crop plantings could be used as entering point to convert them into climate smart farmers. Most farmers in the target areas consider that uncertain climate rainfall as the main factor (out of other 7 factors) influencing their agricultural activities (30.20% in Lombok, 34.90% in Sumba, and 35.30% in Timor).

• In Sumba 47.20% frequently face food shortage and in Timor 34.1% stated rarely face food shortage. Food shortage in Sumba and Timor is considered caused by harvest failure (74.50% in Sumba and 50.0% in Timor) due to climateuncertainty

...and Climate Smart Farmers try...

• Left: Test plot area in Sandubaya Experimental Station before cover crops planting

• Right: Early growth stage of maize on ridge and furrows system at CA plot of Patuh Angen Farmer group in Mareje, Lombok Barat. This area never cultivated and considered by farmer as marginal land.

...and Climate Smart Farmers achieve...

Left: Pumpkins as cover crops on maize crops in Sandubaya LombokRight: The observation showed that maize with CSA techniques grow betteras compare to direct dibbling. The CA techniques were replicated duringCA training in other areas as part of practical works.

The early adopters set an example... The others will easily follow...

Predict the rainfall and set plan for planting season with communities

April 2013 Mei 2013

Rainfall prediction in TTU, West Timor

April 2013

Proyeksi Curah Hujan di Sumba TimurRainfall prediction in East Sumba

The prediction is 85% right in fact, and really help farmers in set planting season and proper varieties

Running Model

Rainfall mapping

Administrative map

Final Mapping

Involvement and engagement of as many as stakeholders will ensure sustainability

Who will support climate smart farmers and ensuring sustainability?

A Stakeholder Influence and Engagement Analysis was conducted to systematically map and evaluate influential groups (not limited to government agencies) and individuals that works on the issues of climate adaptation and DRR at provincial and district level. This will include those who are instrumental in shaping public perceptions and influencing regulatory framework, and crucial to build a foundation for ustainability.

Influence parameters to be analyzed: Coverage of Influence(local, provincial, national), Organizational Capacity, Budget profile, Personel capacity, and Program Capacity.

Engagement parameters: Enthusiasm to involve, Policysupports, Communication/Coordination, Budget Supports, and Personnel supports

Bupati BAPPEDA KAB.

BPBD PROV.

BPBD KAB.

BLHP PROV.

Dishutbun

KLH Lomteng

Kesbangpolinmas

DPRD

Dinas Sosial

Dinas Kesehatan

Dinas Pertambangan dan Energi

PMI

Pemerintah Desa

Camat

Konsorsium LSM LomtengWFP

TransformWWFSamantha

Perguruan Tinggi UNRAM

Media Lombok Post

Radar Mandalika

Nurani Rakyat

Lombok TV

WN

USAID

FF

Gapoktan HKm

KMPB

FMKR

Karang Taruna

Koperasi Mele Maju

Pondok Pesantren/ SekolahBPTP

Stakeholder's Closeness in Lombok Island-evaluation of project partners’ achievement-

0

0,1

0,2

0,3

0,4

0,5

0,6

0,7

0,8

0,9

1

0 0,1 0,2 0,3 0,4 0,5 0,6 0,7 0,8 0,9 1

Infl

ue

nce

(y)

Engagement

Stakeholder's Influence and Engagementin Lombok Island

-evaluation of project partners’ achievement-

Bupati

BAPPEDA KAB.

BPBD PROV.

BPBD KAB.

BLHP PROV.

Dishutbun

KLH Lomteng

Kesbangpolinmas

DPRD

Dinas Sosial

Dinas Kesehatan

Dinas Pertambangan dan Energi

PMI

Pemerintah Desa

Camat

Konsorsium LSM Lomteng

WFP

Transform

WWF

Samantha

Perguruan Tinggi UNRAM

Media Lombok Post

Radar Mandalika

Nurani Rakyat

Lombok TV

WN

USAID

FF

Gapoktan HKm

KMPB

FMKR

Karang Taruna

Koperasi Mele Maju

Pondok Pesantren/ Sekolah

BPTP

Terima kasih

joseph.viandrito@yahoo.com+62 (0) 821 6639 2772

Georgius Joseph ViandritoEducation:

• International Certificates on Tsunami Science and Preparedness Dual Degree, 2008, University of Washington & Asian Institute of Technology, Bangkok.

• Master Degree, Graduate of International Studies Programme 1999, University of Indonesia.

• Bachelor Degree, Economics Science and Development Studies, Faculty of Economics, UNPAR Bandung

Selected Recent Assignments:

Climate Change Expert – Transtec, Belgium (2014)

Senior Socio-Economics at Hatfield International, Canada (present)

M&E Expert FAO for “Reducing Disaster Risk Caused by Changing Climate in NTB and NTT Provinces in Indonesia” project (2013 – present)

Senior Specialist at Millennium Challenge Account (present)

Final Evaluator for the European Union to review and assess the impact of EU/ECHO-funded assistance programs in Indonesia from 2007–2012

Chief of Party of Climate Adaptation & Disaster Resilience Project, USAID, Indonesia, 2011-2012

Project Manager at Asian Disaster Preparedness Center (ADPC) in Bangkok, Thailand, 2009-2010

Hub Coordinator for ASEAN Humanitarian Task Force in Myanmar, 2008-2009

Final Evaluator for the USAID/World Neighbors’ project: “Adapting to Climate Change in Eastern Indonesia”

Final Evaluator for UNDP/UNODC project: “Countering Illegal Logging and the linkage between Forest Crime and Corruption in Indonesia”

Legal Research & Disaster Management Consultant for International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) Asia Pacific - Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia in 2012, to conduct a research to analyze the impact of Law No.24/2007 and its subsequent regulations

Consultant for AUSAID/AIFDR (Australian-Indonesian Facility for Disaster Reduction) in 2010 to facilitate the process of making Standard Operation Procedure (SOP) for BNPB’s Rapid Assessment Task Force

UNDP Program Manager for Integrated IDPs Settlement and Development Programme in Southeast Sulawesi, 2004-2005

Managing Editor at World Wild Fund for Nature (WWF) 1994 - 1998