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World Bank’s adjustm ent lending policy, 1980-1989: Towards understanding the socio-political dimensions o f adjustm ent

Saburi-Haghighi, Neda, Ph.D.

The American University, 1991

Copyright ©1991 by Saburi-Haghighi, Neda. All rights reserved.

UMI300 N. Zeeb Rd.Ann Aibor, MI 48106

WORLD BANK'S ADJUSTMENT LENDING POLICY 1980 - 1989: TOWARDS UNDERSTANDING THE SOCIO-POLITICAL

DIMENSIONS OF ADJUSTMENT by

Neda Saburi-Haghighi submitted to the

Faculty of the College of Arts and Sciences of the American University in Partial Fulfillment of

the Requirements for the Degree of

Doctor of Philosophy in

SociologySignatures of Committee:

ujlvA

Chair:

the College/3 Û àjuiIjuJ' /99/Date 0

1991The American University Washington, D.C. 20016

fHE AMERICAN UNIVERSITY LIBRARY

@ COPYRIGHT

BY

NEDA SABURI-HAGHIGHI

1991

ALL RIGHTS RESERVED

WORLD BANK'S ADJUSTMENT LENDING POLICY 1980 - 1989: TOWARDS UNDERSTANDING THE SOCIO-POLITICAL

DIMENSIONS OF ADJUSTMENT by

Neda Saburi-Haghighi ABSTRACT

The World Bank's policy of structural adjustment was analyzed to test the utility of a qualitative technique, textual analysis, for assessing the coherence of the formulation and implementation of public policy. This treatise provides an approach for examining the various components of an articulated policy. It especially evaluates the coherence of the socio-political themes as they were reflected within selected official internal documents issued by the Bank during the years 1980 - 1989, to examine the Bank's policy and general approach as it was exhibited towards the regions of Africa, Latin America, and the Caribbean.

The adopted methodology, based upon the sociology of knowledge, developed a cognitively based system for coding verbal protocols or social knowledge (meanings, perceptions, and biases). In practice, the methodology transforms textual information into a set of conceptual maps through

ii

the use of computer-assisted techniques. The methodology related social (geographical proximity) with cognitive (Bank loan agreement) data at multiple points in time. The maps were then combined to demonstrate differences and similarities within their shared knowledge.

Some of the resulting conclusions were that the World Bank's policy has changed over time and its ideological framework has shifted from an emphasis on basic needs, (1980-1985) and to the encouraging of efficiency and acknowledgement to a reduction of the social costs of adjustment and assistance to vulnerable groups (1985-1989). Attention to individual country political systems, their environment, and their ability to absorb the "shock" and timeliness of the policy's implementation has increased over time; this was reflected within the Bank's efforts to incorporate the input of governments within the process of adjustment, especially in the latter part of the decade. Also, the policy varied as a function of its targeted regions of implementation, yet countries within each region were treated uniquely.

When the technique is employed in conjunction with quantitative data, such as demographic changes, it can be used to explore potential changes within a country or region through the use of computer simulation. The general approach of data collection, data structuring, and information activity and analysis produced a toolkit for

iii

conducting cost-effective and highly valid analyses of qualitative social research.

IV

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

I would like to acknowledge my committee, without whose help this dissertation would not have been possible: Professors Ken Kusterer, and Gay Young of The American University, Kathleen Carley of Carnegie-Mellon University, and Michel Noel, Division Chief of the Social Dimensions of Adjustment Unit of the World Bank.

I especially owe gratitude to Dr. Ken Kusterer, whose scholarship was the guiding force throughout this paper; his support of my academic accomplishments as a graduate student have been a constant source of encouragement during my professional growth.

I am grateful to Dr. Kathleen Carley, whose patience and guidance in developing the methodology for my coding system and cognitive mapping made my analysis possible.

I am thankful to Mr. Michel Noel, who was kind enough to serve on my committee; without the access that he provided to the World Bank and its various research facilities, this dissertation would never have been possible.

I am indebted to my professors and mentors at the American University in the schools of Government, Economics, International Service, and the Department of Sociology, who have been germane to my intellectual growth for the past

V

twelve years.I am indebted to my friends who were supportive of my

work and gave me their fidelity.Finally, I owe my personal growth to my parents

especially my mother and grandmother, two courageous women who believed in me and my abilities and have constantly given me their understanding and loving support.

VI

DEDICATION

In memory of my uncle, Darioush Jalali

Vll

TABLE OF CONTENTS

ABSTRACT ................................................ ÜACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ....................................... vD E D I C A T I O N ................................................ V ÜLIST OF T A B L E S .......................................... xiLIST OF FIGURES........................................... xiiiLIST OF G R A P H S ............................................ xivChapter

I . INTRODUCTION ................................... 1Statement of the Problem ................... 2Research Strategy ............................ 4Objective of the S t u d y ...................... 7Methodology ................................... 8Source Materials ............................ 10Delimitations ................................. 11Organization of the S t u d y ...................... 13

II. REVIEW OF THE L I T E R A T U R E .......................... 14Introduction ................................. 14The Policy of Lending: A Historical........... 15

OverviewPolicy Issues ................................. 17

Meaning of Adjustment ................... 17Definitions of Adjustment ............... 18Current Adjustment Policy ............... 19The Paradigm of Adjustment..................20World Bank Adjustment L o a n s ................21Issues Addressed in Loans ............... 22A Critique of Adjustment ................. 22

Operational Issues .......................... 25How Countries Qualify ................... 25The Social Dimensions of

Adjustment (SDA) Project Unit ......... 27The Social Dimensions of

Adjustment................................. 28The Origins and Evolution

of SDA P o l i c y .............................29

Assessing Social Dimensions ofAdjustment ............................... 34

Welfare and the Economyof the Household...........................35

SDA Analysis ofHousehold Behavior ...................... 37

SDA's Policy Framework ................... 39SDA's Empirical Framework ............... 47The Political Dimensions of

Adjustment ............................... 58Adjustment and Political

S t a b i l i t y ................................. 61The Political Challenges

of Managing Adjustment ................. 66The World Bank's Adjustment Lending

Policy; What are the Retrospects?. . . . 68III. M E T H O D O L O G Y ....................................... 71

The Theoretical Foundation ................. 71The Research Program ........................ 78The Research D e s i g n .............................80The Source Documentation . . . . . . . . . . 83

Reports and Recommendationsof the P r e s i d e n t ...........................84

Memorandums and Recommendationsof the P r e s i d e n t ...........................85

Staff Appraisal Reports ................... 85Programs Performance Audit

Reports ................................... 86Data Selection and Analysis.................... 86

Parameters Examined ........................ 86Analytical Tools: Coding

Data as M a p s ............................... 88Software Application ...................... 91

Analytical Techniques ........................ 93Descriptive M a p s .............................93Cognitive M a p s ............................... 96Tabular M a p s ................................ 100

IV. DATA A N A L Y S I S .................................... 105Tabular Map Results............................106

Towards Understanding the SocialDimensions of Adjustment ............... 108Diagnosis of the Social Problems . . . . 108 Prescription of the Social

Strategies..............................114Reflections on the Social Impact . . . . 120

Towards Understanding the PoliticalDimensions of Adjustment ............... 126Diagnosis of the Political

Problems................................ 126

Prescription of the PoliticalStrategies.............................. 132

Reflection on the PoliticalConsequences .......................... 137

The Bank's Socio-Historical Evolution and the Social Formation of the Bank's Institutional Approach: A Framework forD i a l o g u e ................................ 144

Cognitive Map Results ........................ 147Discussion of the Results................... 157

V. SOME PROVISIONAL CONCLUSIONS..................... 162Methodological Issues ........................ 165Suggested Strategy for Improving the Quality

of Socio-political Analysis ............... 168A Qualitative Method for Monitoring the

Socio-Political Dimensions of Adjustment:Data Collection and Analysis...............170

Some Practical Conclusions ................. 171Appendix

I. A P P E N D I X .............................................174II. A P P E N D I X .............................................183

III. A P P E N D I X .............................................186IV. A P P E N D I X .............................................226

BIBLIOGRAPHY ............................................. 229

LIST OF TABLES

1. Proportions of Occurrences Covered in RRPs and PPARs for Latin America: Social Issues;Years Covered, 1980-1989 .................... 109

2. Impact Factor Scores for Latin America:Social Issues .............................. 109

3. Proportions of Occurrences Covered in RRPs and PPARs for Africa: Social Issues; Years Covered, 1980-1989 .......................... Ill

4. Impact Factor Scores for Latin America:Social Issues .............................. Ill

5. Proportions of Occurrences Covered in RRPs and PPARs for Latin America: Social Strategy; Years Covered, 1980-1989 ......... 115

6. Impact Factor Scores for Latin America:Social S t r a t e g y .......... 115

7. Proportions of Occurrences Covered in RRPs and PPARs for Africa: Social Strategy;Years Covered, 1980-1989 .................... 117

8. Impact Factor Scores for Africa: Social Strategy.......................................118

9. Proportions of Occurrences Covered in RRPs and PPARs for Latin America: Social Impact;Years Covered, 1980-1989 .................... 122

10. Impact Factor Scores for Latin America:Social Impact .............................. 122

11. Proportions of Occurrences Covered in RRPs and PPARs for Africa: Social Impact; Years Covered, 1980-1989 .......................... 124

12. Impact Factor Scores For Africa: SocialI m p a c t .........................................125

XI

13. Proportions of Occurrences Covered in RRPs and PPARs for Latin America: PoliticalIssues, Years Covered, 1980-1989 ............ 127

14. Impact Factor Scores for Latin America:Political Issues .......................... 127

15. Proportions of Occurrences Covered in RRPs and PPARs for Africa: Political Issues; Years Covered, 1980-1989 .......................... 129

16. Impact Factor Scores for Africa: Political I s s u e s .........................................130

17. Proportions of Occurrences Covered in RRPs and PPARs for Latin America: Political Strategy; Years Covered, 1980-1989 .......... 134

18. Impact Factor Scores for Latin America:Political Strategy .......................... 134

19. Proportions of Occurrences Covered in RRPsand PPARs for Africa: Political Strategy; Years Covered, 1980-1989 .......................... 135

20. Impact Factor Scores for Africa: Political Strategy .................................... 136

21. Proportions of Occurrences Covered in RRPS and PPARs for Africa: Political Impact; Years Covered, 1980-1989 .......................... 139

22. Impact Factor Scores for Africa: Political Impact ...................................... 140

23. Proportions of Occurrences Covered in RRPs and PPARs for Latin America: PoliticalImpact; Years Covered, 1980 -1989 142

24. Impact Factor Scores for latin America:Political Impact ............................ 1431980-1989

Xll

LIST OF FIGURES

1. The Initial Parameters Used for Organizing the Extracted Data, for Presenting Structural Adjustment Policy (SAP) ............................ 10

2. A Sample Descriptive Map for Examined JamaicanLoan D o c u m e n t s .......................................95

3. A Sample Cognitive Map For an Examined JamaicanLoan Documents: 1983 ............................. 99

4. Concepts Covered in RRPs and PPARs for Africa,Latin America and the C a r i b b e a n .................... 100

5. Proportions of Occurrences Covered in RRPs and PPARs for Latin America: Social Issues;1980-1989 103

6. Perceived Dimensions within the World Bank'sSocial World ....................................... 146

Xlll

LIST OF GRAPHS

1. Graphical Representation of All Facts Used in16 of the 30 African C a s e s ...........................151

2. Graphical Representation of All Facts Used in6 of the 10 Latin American Cases .................. 152

3. Graphical Representation of All Facts Used inAny of the 30 African Cases ........................ 153

4. Graphical Representation of All Facts Used inany of the 10 Latin American C a s e s .................. 154

5. Graphical Representation of SelectedAfrican Cases ..................................... 155

6. Graphical Representation of Selected LatinAmerican and Caribbean Cases ...................... 156

XIV

CHAPTER I INTRODUCTION

The main goal of the World Bank is to improve economic conditions within the Third World. The Bank has adopted policies of economic modernization to assist Third World governments with changes in their economic conditions, in striving for growth with equity, and in the improvement of their living conditions. The current policy for economic reforms is implemented through structural adjustment programs - a "shock therapy" economic reform program aimed at establishing and stabilizing a market economy.

The thesis that follows is an interpretive approach to the study of a public policy, in general, and the World Bank's articulated policy of structural adjustment in particular. It is aimed to test the validity of such an approach through the qualitative technique outlined and applied in this dissertation. Subsequently, various componential elements of the World Bank's general model of the policy of lending - for the purposes of an evaluation of the coherence of the Bank's socio-political analysis - within a general framework is presented here as it led to the presentation of the socio-historical evolution and

2social formation of the Bank's institutional approach or mental model.

This analysis is based upon the Reports and Recommendations of the President of the World Bank and the Audit Reports of the Operations Evaluations Unit as they were presented to the Bank's Board of Directors on behalf of the developing nations of Africa, Latin America, and the Caribbean during the years 1980-1989.

Statement of the Problem The present analysis assumed the form of an

exploratory case study because of the problems associated with studying public policy - especially those that impact on developing nations - due to a lack of appropriate methodological tools.‘

Therefore, there was a need to develop a tool for evaluating an institutional policy of this nature.Structural adjustment policy was then selected as a case study, and the utility of certain qualitative techniques - such as textual analysis - was tested against the present

* Such an assertion and its further elaboration on the theoretical problems in policy analysis with a complete review of the relevant literature is found in Digna Gonzalez, "The Venezuelan National Scholarship Foundation: Examining theImplementation of a Social-Educational Policy," Ph.D. dissertation, the Pennsylvania State University, 1987, 2-5 and 164-173. See also Barney G. Glaser and Anselm L. Strauss, The Discovery of Grounded Theorv: Strategies for QualitativeResearch. New York: Aldine Pub. Co, 1967, and Ann Majchrak, Methods for Policv Research. Beverly Hills: Sage Publications, 1984.

3thesis.2 The challenge was, for example, to aid the World Bank in the recognition of their successes and failures in carrying out their design, implementation, and evaluation of structural adjustment policy.

The methodology employed was based upon the works of Hans-Georg Gadamer, Alfred Schütz, and applied through the research design of Kathleen Carley of Carnegie-Mellon University in Pittsburgh.^

The technical approach, therefore, to this interpretive exploratory study - data collection, data structuring, information activity and analysis - resulted in the generation of a new tool for social science research.

A qualitative method enabled the present researcher to tie together clusters of policy instruments that relate to policy decision-making, and to "see" the complete adoption process, i.e., policy, the construction of its social meanings, and outcomes. The interpretation of these meanings could then be triangulated to increase the validity of the employed method, and also to reduce the skewing possibilities within the results (see Norman Denzin, "Logic," 166-67, 171. For "trangulation," see 167 and 177. See also Todd D. Jick, "Mixing Qualitative and Quantitative Methods: Triangulation in Action." Administrative Science QuarterIv 24 (Dec. 1979): 602- 610. Further support of Denzin's method can be found in Digna Gonzalez, "The Venezuelan National Scholarship Foundation," 260, 266). One advocacy for qualitative research and itsbenefits in the field of international development can be found in Lawrence F. Salmen, "Beneficiary Assessment Improving the Design and Implementation of Development Projects," Evaluation Review 13/3 (June 1989): 273-291.

Works consulted included Hans-Georg Gadamer, Truth and Method. New York: Continuum, 1975; Alfred Schütz, ThePhenomenoloav of the Social World. Evanston, 111. : Northwestern University Press, 1967. Kathleen Carley's seminal work which provided the bulk of my methodological apparatus included "An Approach for Relating Social Structure to Cognitive Structure," Journal of Mathematical Socioloav 12/2 (1986): 137-189.

which can be used to conduct policy analyses from a historical perspective, through an examination of the institutional documentation, to provide a clear picture of the coherence in which the policy was designed, implemented, and evaluated.

Research StrateavTo trace the evolution of policy through an

institutional approach and its mental model, it was necessary to identify the forces which contribute to the formation of social actions within organizations as they were embedded in the examined texts. The study of policy­relevant knowledge thus requires a unique application of sociological inquiry in order to construct its social reality.4

To determine the social realities as they had been constructed, through an evaluation of the realities of language and social structure, the present analysis was employed. Consequently, policy-relevant knowledge is represented here as a social object which undergoes examination. Objects have meanings, and meanings are perceived, evaluated, and interpreted. This process of understanding textual meanings requires a deconstructive,

* Peter Berger and Thomas Luckman, The Social Construction of Reality. Garden City, N.Y.: Anchor, 1967.

See Vincent B. Leitch, Deconstructive Criticism; An Ad­vanced Introduction. New York: Columbia University Press,1982.

5hermeneutical approach which "is both a form of experience and grammatical analysis at the same time."® Using this method, social meanings (inter-subjectives) were then interpreted. The extracted meanings eventually became part of interpretive schemes which reflected upon the Bank's experiences within lending countries, their own interpretations of their experiences, and finally, how they ultimately attempted to structure the social world. These meanings, therefore, echo the Bank's conduct, belief systems, values, and knowledge. They also provide a socio­economic structure within an inter-subjective world in which developing countries can survive;? in other words, the language examined shows how the Bank structures experience, and also how it views the social structures in which people exist. It is in this process of reformulating institutional thinking, in which extracted meanings are combined with facts, that the Bank's thinking became prevalent.

The method of analysis used within this dissertation has been known by the classification deconstructive hermeneutics, which is defined here as "one mode of deconstruction -an apparently constricted and utilitarian one - [which] focuses on texts, on ways of reading texts and comprehending textural signification," (Ibid., 260). Although this method is frowned upon by linguists and rhetoricians, it has received endorsements and applications within the sociology of knowledge theories of Karl Mannheim.

® Jurgen Habermas, Knowledge and Human Interest. Boston: Beacon Press, 1968, 162.

? Egon Bittner, "Objectivity and Realism in Sociology," in George Psathas (ed.). Phenomenological Socioloav: Issues and Applications. New York: John Wiley, 1973, 109-125.

6Finally, through the isolation of facts, concepts

became prominent. This was done through the relation of social structures (geographical proximity) with cognitive data (Bank loan agreement)® at multiple points in time, which contributed to the construction of a framework, or a social "reality" of approach, corresponding to the Bank's thinking processes concerning adjustment policy. Because the examined texts represented mostly economic reports on a given country, certain parameters were identified by the researcher to isolate the social and political concepts from the economic and structure-related (sectoral) concepts.This dissertation examines the relative emphasis that the World Bank placed on social and political concerns, as the Bank modified its structural adjustment policy for sustain­able growth in selected countries that received adjustment loans during the period 1980-1989.

* Kathleen Carley, "An Approach for Relating Social Structure to Cognitive Structure," Journal of Mathematical Sociology. 12/2 (1986): 187.

7Objective of the Study

The objective of this study is a temporal® comparison of the institutional mental models of the Bank's adjustment policy. It is aimed to elicit values, biases,^ and experiences of policy decision-making, to present a view of the Bank's institutional mentality as it affected official lending procedures.

It is in this spirit that the mode of inquiry used here - a phenomenological approach - has been selected to link the philosophy and method through which the similarity of World Bank policies in dealing with different regions has

® "Time as 'temporality'. . . is the transcendentalhorizon in which beings are surpassed toward being itself and the sense of being is articulated and divided into various meanings." This exerpt is from an in-depth explanation of the nature of temporal interpretation and hermeneutic philosophy based on such an interpretation in Ott Poggeler (translated by Theodore Kisiel), "Temporal Interpretation and Hermeneutic Philosophy," in Phenomenology; Dialogues and Bridges, edited by Ronald Bruzina and Bruce Wilshire, State University of New York, Albany: State University of New York Press, 1982, 79-97.

"The central question of historical hermeneutics is to establish the ground of legitimate prejudices . . . the'undeniable task of critical reason' to distinguish legitimate from illegitimate prejudices . . . This task is accomplished through the effect of the concept temporal distance: effective historical consciousness. Effective historical consciousness is the acknowledgement of the fact that the effect of historical events influences our study of them . . . Central to the understanding of effective-historical consciousness is the fact that it has the structure of an experience . . . the phenomenon that occurs when effective-historical consciousness operates as the 'fusing of horizons'. . . [The] concept of horizon, as the 'range of vision that includes everything that can be seen from a particular vantage point'." From Susan J. Hekman, Hermeneutics and the Sociology of Knowledge. 103-104. See also Hans-Georg Gadamer, Truth and Method. 246, 267-269, and 310.

8been tested. This analysis demonstrates whether or not the policy has been articulated rigidly, and if, in recognizing and responding to each country and region's unique needs, the policy has been stated coherently. Consequently, the following questions were raised: 1) has Bank policy changedover time? 2) does policy vary as a function of its targeted regions of implementation?; 3) have the socio­political dimensions of adjustment changed over time? This analysis considers the relative weight placed on social versus economic issues.

MethodologyIn forming a "cognitively based system" for coding verbal protocols or social knowledge," a number of texts were coded into a set of concepts or occurrences (nearly 3000). Each concept represents a statement that either occurred explicitly in the verbal written protocols or could be directly inferred. By employing a standard set of abstracting tools rather than creating a new set of

" A description of the theory of knowledge and what is considered to be social knowledge is given in the following excerpt: "Social knowledge is the set of information shared by the members of the society. All knowledge is articulable . . . The individual's language is viewed as an articulation of his or her knowledge . . . Knowledge is viewed as a relational phenomena; that is, the pieces of information interrelate. Meaning is a function of this interrelationship. In order to increase the precision of these ideas, and to specify knowledge acquisition and dissemination schemes, a knowledge representation scheme is needed." See also Kathleen Carley, "Formalizing the Social Expert's Knowledge," Sociological Methods and Research. 17/2 (1988): 167-168.

9vocabularies, tied together were related concepts within World Bank policies which were not readily apparent within individual documents, allowing the researcher to gain the ability to examine trends apparent within existing policy. These products convey policy-relevant knowledge, which were extracted through an adaptation of indicative abstracting. The products which resulted included conceptual maps or mental models generated with the help of a protocol analysis software known as Frame Technology. These maps facilitated 'the tracing of an organization's "thinking pattern," i.e., its organizational approach towards the formulation, implementation, and subsequent evaluation of public policy which when combined, presented the institutional mental model.

Furthermore, the extracted concepts or raw data is presented as descriptive maps which lend themselves to a further study of individual countries, and their parameters can be used in the examination of World Bank policy and its componential elements towards their subsequent regions.Once the data was transformed into the various tables and diagrams, general trends were discussed which were based upon their observation. The descriptive maps were further coded to reflect more general concepts for the purposes of further analysis.

10The findings were based upon the reduced concept list,

or the extracted data and synthesis of two additional implied techniques: the tabular maps which resulted were used to examine the coherence of the articulated socio­political policy statements and the cognitive maps which resulted were used to examine policy rigidity, and the overall institutional approach or mental model. Figure 1 demonstrates the logical sequence of data reduction as it was applied to more measurable units within the analysis.

Designeconomic issues political issues social issues structural issues

SAP Implementationeconomic strategies political strategies social strategies structural strategies

Evaluationeconomic impacts political impacts social impacts structural impacts

Descriptive MapsCognitive Maps Tabular Maps

FIGURE 1THE INITIAL PARAMETERS USED FOR ORGANIZING THE EXTRACTED DATA, FOR PRESENTING STRUCTURAL ADJUSTMENT POLICY (SAP)

Source Materials The material presented in this study was obtained from

1) publicly available World Bank and collateral literature;

11and 2) various strata of internal Bank documents (materials held by the World Bank Internal Documents Unit) , which were extracted from their "For Official Use Only" database.

DelimitationsThe President's Reports and the Bank's Audit Reports

were then sampled to gauge the evolution of policy inherent in structural adjustment loan policy. The analysis is based on a sample of 44 presidential and financial reports addressing 24 African countries and 21 comparable documents for 10 Latin American and Caribbean nations, spanning the period 1980-1989.

Since the review of the Bank's collateral literature in this dissertation highlighted the studying of social and political facets within adjustment policy and highlighted the importance of incorporating a more thorough socio­political analysis into development planning and implementation, a high priority was placed upon the trends within the socio-political dimensions of the policy, independent of its financial dimensions. Thus, the examined formal and internal documents of the World Bank did not suggest the same amount of relevance. Having observed such a discrepancy, the researcher was prompted to trace the Bank's past experiences within their social and political analysis.

12This study addresses structural adjustment policy, but

does not include its corresponding stabilization policy. Stabilization measures supported by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) are not formally linked with the Bank's adjustment loans. However, the Bank needs the IMF's approval before lending procedures can occur.^

Moreover, the research examines the social realities within the policy, but it will not attempt to analyze the events which occurred within the examined regions.

Further, it has been reported that while Asian countries expand, Latin American nations remain impoverished, and there is no hope of economic recovery for Sub-Saharan Africa in this century.^ In light of this, the geographical regions selected for examination are Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean, mainly because of the external economic shocks faced by these regions during the 1980s.

Due to the political uncertainty and a lack of completed adjustment programs in Eastern Europe and Asia," this study does not attempt to examine the implications of their adjustment efforts.

" See also Peter Nicholas, The World Bank's Lending for Adjustment; An Interim Report. World Bank Discussion Paper no. 34, Washington, D.C.: The World Bank, 1988.

" Richard Feinberg, "The Adjustment Imperative and U.S. Policy," in Adjustment Crisis in the Third World. 3.

" The World Bank, "Structural Adjustment Policies and Challenges," in World Development Report (1989): 10-13.

13Organization of the Study

What follows in Chapter II is an overview of the historical perspective on the policy of lending, with an emphasis upon structural adjustment lending and its operational issues.

Chapter III presents the methodology, the description of the data sources, and the research instrument.

Chapter IV concerns itself with the findings and analysis of the data, based upon the proposed tool of research.

Chapter V summarizes the findings and presents some provisional conclusions, based upon an interpretive approach.

Importance of the Studv This research presents a comprehensive analysis of

World Bank adjustment lending policy since its inception in 1980. It is one of the first non-World Bank reviews that elicits values, biases, and the experiences of policy decision-making as it was reflected within World Bank publications, and presents the Bank's past experiences with socio-political analysis and demonstrates the Bank's institutional mentality as it affected official lending procedures. This "usable knowledge" is provided for decision makers, to give them both insights and suggested actions which can result in improving policy and policy­making.

CHAPTER II REVIEW OF THE LITERATURE

IntroductionThis chapter presents an overview of the origins of

the World Bank's policy of lending. The literature reveals that the introduction of the World Bank's lending policies throughout the past decade were quite profound in their effects, and in turn, the impact of the policy along with its global economic, and political factors have significantly influenced the structural and social goals of borrowing countries.

Since the goal of this study is to examine the component elements within the World Bank's adjustment policy and its institutional approach during 1980-1989, the literature analyzed deals with the policy, in general, and the various operational issues, since its inception which have also involved its management. Moreover, as it relates to the scope of this study, this dissertation presents an overview of the social and political dimensions of adjustment which became of sociological relevance, since an analysis of this type requires references to economic, political, and policy-oriented debates and discussions.

14

15The Policy of Lending: A Historical Overview

In order to examine the Bank's adjustment lending policy during the 1980s, it was important to understand the nature of its historical coming of age. The summary of the Bank's lending history below is presented from the standpoint of an outsider to its cloistered environment.^

For quite some time, perhaps since the World Bank's inception following World War II, the primary goal of the Bank has been to assist nations to reconstruct.% Reconstruction has meant to establish a sound economic policy, and to present an orientation towards more macroeconomic policy objectives which, traditionally, have been balance-of-payments and price stability measures which usually lead to economic growth. This approach dominated the Bank's ideology until the 1970s.® During this period, however, economic crises affected by world trade deficits brought about policy reform with an emphasis on growth with

* The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (The World Bank Group) is considered the largest supplier of development assistance to the Third World, and it serves as the most dynamic agency for implementing development policies. For a complete overview of the Bank's early experiments in the field of development, see John Prior Lewis and Ishan Kapur, editors. The World Bank Group. Multilateral Aid and the 1970s. Lexington, Ma.: Lexington Books, 1973.

2 Ibid., 17.® George Psacharopoulos, "Recovering Growth with

Equity: World Bank Poverty Alleviation Activities in Latin America," Internal Discussion Paper, Human Resources Division, Washington, D.C.: Overseas Development Council, 1989.

16equity, which came to occupy an even greater role within the Bank's various strategies.

Policy reform known as structural adjustment came about during the late 1970s, in response to the Western economic crises that ensued from the second oil embargo and economic imbalances, e.g., recession and high interest rates. Structural Adjustment Lending (SAL) programs were initiated by the World Bank in 1980 to alleviate poverty, stimulate economic growth, and provide basic human needs which were not addressed by member nations due to recession, decreases in exports, high oil prices and interest rates.'* Since the 1980s, The World Bank has introduced structural adjustment programs to developing countries facing economic calamity and experiencing austerity.® Further, in accordance with the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF), other bilateral assistance programs have been established to complement structural adjustment programs.

'* Richard E. Feinberg and Valeriana Kallab, Adjustment Crisis in the Third World. U.S. - Third World Policy Perspectives no. 1, Washington, D.C.: Overseas Development Council, 1984, 83-97.

® Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), The Sahel Facing the Future; Increasing Dependence or Structural Transformation. Paris: OECD, 1988, 76.

17Policy Issues

Meaning of Adjustment Adjustment has frequently been defined as significant

changes in economic management and policy to achieve certain desirable objectives. Adjustment implies the involvement of the World Bank in macroeconomic reform, which can include reforms in sectors that normally look after themselves, such as the agricultural industry. In other words, it is therefore aimed at projecting investment or supporting general importation to achieve balance-of-payments. Adjustment relates primarily to the acceleration of the overall pace of development and growth. The phrase "structural adjustment" is meant to distinguish a certain kind of lending from previously used methods. This is due to: a) country debts which are much more severe and requirea greater economic and social response; b) stabilization programs which are almost never implemented without corresponding structural adjustment loans being put into place; and c) the social costs of a transition to new programs which have become too large to ignore.® The reasoning behind the use of adjustment language is linked to a general rather than specific understanding as to what the government would do to improve the balance-of-payments situation.

® The World Bank, "Executive Summary," in Analysis Plans, pp. 1-2.

18Definitions of Adjustment

The World Bank has identified various terminologies associated with adjustment programs and provided a summary of the "language of adjustment"; (1) Stabilization; policies to achieve a sustainable fiscal balance of payments within the current account deficit, to reduce the rate of price inflation; (2) Structural Adjustment: reforms of policies and institutions covering microeconomic, macroeconomic, and institutional interventions (changes designed to improve resource allocation, increase economic efficiency, expand growth potential and increase resilience to shocks); (3) Adjustment: policies presented to achieveinternal and external balances, and changes in the structure of incentives and institutions, or both (where the emphasis is on the former, it can be identified as stabilization and, where on the latter, as structural adjustment); (4) Structural Adjustment Lending: World Bank lending that supports structural adjustment (this generally provides import financing and is quickly disbursed); (5) HybridLending: sectoral adjustment lending closely linked to investment operations; and (6) Sector Adjustment Lending: World Bank lending in a macroeconomic-oriented environment relevant to a specific sector and focused on correcting institutional distortions. This is also quickly dispersed.®

® The World Bank, Adjustment Lending: An Evaluation of Ten Years of Experience. Policy and Research Series no. 1, Washington, D.C.: Country Economics Department of the World

19Current Adjustment Policy

Since structural adjustment policies are usually implemented as a result of austerity measures enforced during economic recessions, today the Bank's policy is modified to differentiate between alleviating poverty over the long term and the reduction of the social costs of adjustment.?

Addison and Demery, in their study of "The Economics of Poverty Alleviation under Adjustment" argued that, because of a lack of growth in the economies of developing Africa and South America, the "sheer force of [their] recession" can render their "poverty . . . [both] life threatening and alarming." Since structural adjustment programs affect the "structural output and . . . the distribution of primary claims" rather than poverty alleviation, their effectiveness has been questioned. They further suggested a number of measures to be included in adjustment programs in order to decrease poverty levels;(1) increased production access, (2) enhanced revenue returns, (3) increased employment opportunities, (4) better personnel management, and (5) increased income and

Bank, 1989, 11.? Yukon Huang and Peter Nicholas, "Protecting the Poor

during Periods of Adjustment," 27-28.

20consumption transfer.®

The Paradigm of Adjustment Structural adjustment programs rely on the

"microfoundation of the mainstream paradigm; development [based on a reliance upon] . . . market forces, with government limited to facilitating those market forces."®In turn they seek to work within the boundaries of the capitalist system, while "planning models, the role of the peasantry, gender and development, surplus value, social articulation, accumulation, classes, and the transition to socialism" are pursued by political economists who "reject . . . mainstream economics."*® However, economists who participate in structural adjustment programs are labelled as "neononinterventionist," i.e., the theory once rejected has now become "mainstream development economics.""

The general consensus among World Bank senior economists is that countries have no choice but to adjust, and that a failure to adjust would result in greater suffering within the population. This is prevalent in World

® Tony Addison and Lionel Demery, "The Economics of Poverty Alleviation under Adjustment," advance copy of a paper prepared for the World Bank Symposium on Povertv and Adjustment, London; Overseas Development Institute, 1988, 2- 3.

® Ibid., 144.Kenneth P. Jameson, James H. Weaver, and Charles K.

Wilber, "Strategies of Development," 142." Ibid.. 147.

21Bank publications on the subject of adjustment from 1980 to the present. This indicates a turning point in the Bank's perception of economic growth, and the paradigm of adjustment has been defined through concepts such as "recovering growth with equity," "restoring growth with equity," and "adjustment with growth" which tend to be common phrases in their analysis of adjustment programs.

World Bank Adjustment Loans There are two major types of adjustment loans,

structural adjustment loans and sector adjustment loans, with both types of loans used by the Bank support programs to address structural defects and achieve economic efficiency. Structural adjustment loans are a series of medium-term (up to five year) loans supporting an economy- wide program of policy and institutional reform. Adjustment programs supported by such loans are nonsectoral, or project-level oriented, and are usually directed at financing raw materials and intermediate goods. These loans are tranched, closely monitored, and subject to conditionality. Sector adjustment loans (SECALs) are less comprehensive and are more focused and functionally-oriented to such sectors as the environment, energy, education, agriculture, trade and the import development industry.*?

*? Vinod Dubey, "Importance of Policy Framework for Development," in World Bank Support for Structural Adjustment in Developing Countries. Unpublished Typescript, 1987; See also Peter Nicholas, The World Bank's Lending for

22Issues addressed in Loans

There are four issues that are currently addressed in loans: (1) a "well-defined medium-term perspective," i.e.,goals which can be accomplished in the middle of a projected implementation; (2) a linkage of program objectives with the policy instruments used to employ them; (3) interaction among all multidirectional goals; and (4) the establishment of "equilibrium" in policy design.*® Moreover, all structural adjustment lending programs must include "a statement of structural objectives," achievable within a ten-year span, a "statement of the measures" to be taken over the first five years, and "a monitorable set of actions to be taken by a government.""

A Critique of Adjustment Laid-off and redeployed workers, increases in the cost

of many basic commodities, notably food, and decreases in the standard of living in politically important urban populations are some of the consequences of adjustment measures. The problem of the social costs of adjustment has recently been receiving an increasing amount of attention from the international community, including the World Bank.

Adjustment, and Vinod Thomas, Issues in Adjustment Lending. Washington, D.C.: The World Bank, 1988.

*® Fahrettin Yagci, Steven Kamin, and Vicki Rosenbaum, Structural Adjustment Lending. 1-2, 31-33.

*“* Stein Hansen, Structural Adjustment Programs and Sustainable Development. 3.

23Therefore, criticisms leveled towards The World Bank's

structural adjustment lending programs concerning its formulation include: the lack of proper policy design to access the effects of a country's poverty level; difficulties in receiving programs; policies not initiated within their allotted time frame; a lack of research into the true conditions of the lending environment; the amount of loan burden sharing to be done by a country's own commercial banks, difficulties in the assessment of the effects of financial strain on other Bank programs; and a lack of both diplomacy and coordination of policy on behalf of all of the involved parties.*®

In addition, it has been further stated that even comparisons between countries involved in adjustment lending programs and those not involved are necessarily imperfect,"[with] too little time passed" for conducting proper observations and the "initial conditions" of the countries studied are usually too different even to attempt comparison. Two more problems acknowledged to merit further consideration by Bank policy analysts are the lack of sustainability in adjustment programs after they have been initiated, and the problem of unalterable increasing domestic debts among the affected countries. Many of the

*® The World Bank, "President's Memorandum," 2; see also Elliot Berg and Alan Batchelder, Structural Adjustment Lending: A Critical View. Washington, B.C.: The World Bank, 1985.

24adverse affects usually attributed to adjustment program implementation were really the result of "inappropriate past policies or the unfavorable international economic environment. "*®

It has been argued that the typical adjustment program incurs three types of costs: the effort to restore macroeconomic balance, which depresses output, employment and consumption; the reallocation of resources between sector and activities, which affects favored businesses and activities; and traditional implementation costs resulting in net social costs which are always more substantial than gross social costs even in the transitional period.Thereby, poverty-stricken areas feel the greatest effect from structural adjustment policies.*? Strategies to implement direct public interventions to help the poor were found to cause production to stagnate, imposing a greater burden on the poor during the implementation of adjustment programs.*® Generally, difficulties which arose in the implementation of structural adjustment loans included nationalistic prejudice towards the Bank, and a fear of the political and social costs of adjustment.*®

*® Ibid., 3-4.*? Ibid., 4-6.*® Ibid., 12-13.*® World Bank, "Structural Adjustment Lending: A First

Review of Experience," Operations Evaluation Department Report 6409, Washington: D.C.: The World Bank 1986, 6-7, 10.

25Operational Issues

How Countries Qualify In a 1980 article, E. Peter Wright of the World Bank

outlined the conditions which led to the structural adjustment lending proposals introduced in Belgrade, Yugoslavia, in October 1979.?® To qualify for World Bank lending programs, he conceded, a country must meet the following conditions: (1) adopt policy and program changesto accommodate international finance; (2) propose long-term growth objectives for economic programs; and (3) reduce current account deficits to an amount of capital that it can comfortably have available.

The general needs of all nations accepting lending programs are (1) "to improve agricultural and industrial efficiency"; (2) "to promote the expansion and diversification of exports on the basis of comparative exchange"; (3) "to develop domestic energy resources"; and (4) "to raise domestic savings rates" and "restrain consumption." Furthermore, for lending programs to be successful in developing nations, necessarily required alterations include the "composition of the public investment program," reduction in "agricultural pricing to stimulate domestic reduction," restructuring of tariffs and import controls to make "industries more competitive," and

?® E. Peter Wright, "World Bank Lending for Structural Adjustment," Finance and Development 17/3 (September 1980): 20-23.

26the "reorganization of public enterprises to reduce waste and inefficiency."?* The World Bank offers assistance to governments so that they may make the appropriate administrative changes.

A prerequisite that must be maintained by a country participating in a structural adjustment loan is the elaboration of an appropriate set of specific actions that a government will initiate, in order to increase or to save foreign exchange earnings. If a country possesses a "medium-term foreign exchange constraint," then it is eligible for a lending program. It has been found, however, that although "countries may have requested or have been offered assistance" because of poor performance, the World Bank offered assistance to countries that already had the potential to perform well, structural adjustment lending, is not meant to replace emergency lending; it exists "for member countries to obtain the Bank's assistance in introducing policy changes and carrying out difficult economic reforms."??

?* Ibid.?? Gail Stevenson, "Structural Adjustment Lending: A

Critical Review and Assessment." Ph.D. Dissertation, The American University, 1988, 5, 9.

27The Social Dimensions of Adjustment (SDA) Project Unit

To refine the raison d'etre for structural adjustment policy and to respond to its critics, the Bank began its SDA project in 1987, as a joint venture between the United Nations Development Program (UNDP) Regional Program for Africa, The African Development Bank, and The World Bank.The objective of the SDA project has been to help participating governments include social considerations in the programs that are developed. By this action, the World Bank stressed the social dimensions in development projects and growth with equity. The twenty-six participating governments of Sub-Saharan Africa, the United Nations, and donor countries have identified the reduction of poverty as one of their ultimate goals. There is also a regional statistical task force that receives input from other international agencies and serves as a think tank.?®

Three essential components of social adjustment strategy are; (1) a policy component consisting of macroeconomic policies of poverty reduction; (2) a programs and projects component consisting of design and follow-up units for specifically proposed programs; and (3) an institutional development component involved in the strengthening of regional institutions in their socioeconomic policy formulation. An additional component

?® The World Bank, The Social Dimensions of Adjustment; A Policv Agenda. Washington, D.C.: The World Bank, 1989, 1.

28of the social dimensions program is the Economic Management and Social Action Project (EMSAP), which is designed to aid in the integration of poverty reduction objectives in institutional development projects and programs. The two major goals of the social dimensions project are (1) to integrate the developed macroeconomic strategies into the policy framework paper process, and (2) to promote the participation of "community groups and NGOs in the design and implementation of socio-economic policies and programs.""

The Social Dimensions of Adjustment The social dimension concept of adjustment deals with

how structural adjustment policies affect the welfare of at- risk groups in society. The social dimension is important for the protection of poorer groups and for sustainable economic growth.

The social dimensions are the features of structural adjustment programs that "affect the distribution of social welfare": the devaluation of currency and export promotion measures; price liberalization and subsidy relaxation; employee layoffs; enterprise liquidation; salary reductions; reductions in cost recoveries and expenditures;

The World Bank, Social Dimensions of Adjustment fSDAI Project: Summarv Project Status. Interoffice communication, Washington, D.C.: The World Bank, 1988, 1-3.

29and, more rarely, built-in "expenditures to protect and assist the poor."?®

Subsequently, the Bank has already identified strategies to reduce the effect of their programs upon welfare distribution: a) economic growth, which takes the longest amount of time to aid the poorest members of a society; b) specific programs aimed at the poor to increase their earning activities, and c) social programs, e.g., nutrition, health care, water and sewerage needs, designed to be "the most immediate and effective instrument to combat poverty in the short-run."?® The social dimension concept of adjustment is meant to address the above terms and conditions.

\ s

The Origins and Evolution of SDA Policy The objective of adjustment programs in IMF

stabilization and World Bank loans has been the attainment of macroeconomic balances by bringing national expenditures in line with national income, working to allocate resources across economic sectors, and the raising of economic and

?® Elaine Zuckerman, Adjustment Programs and Social Welfare. World Bank Discussion Paper no. 44. Washington, D.C.: The World Bank, 1989, 12-13.

?® George Psacharopoulos, "Recovering Growth with Equity: World Bank Poverty Alleviation Activities in Latin America," Internal Discussion Paper, Human Resources Division, Washington, D.C.: Overseas Development Council, 1989, 9.

30living standards for the poor by raising taxes and mobilizing resources.

In this spirit, adjustment lending policy underwent three distinctive phases in which its social dimensions became prevalent. The phases of adjustment lending are the restoration of macroeconomic balances caused by overexpansionary fiscal policies, the improvement of resource allocations to promote long-time growth, during which the social dimensions of adjustment are measured, and the explicit incorporation of poverty reduction into the objectives of adjustment policy.??

Africa was chosen for the initial round of adjustment programs (1981-1984), which concentrated mainly on restoring macroeconomic balances. Imbalances existed because of excessive spending for projects undertaken during the previous fiscal years, which were underwritten by foreign loans for which the borrowing countries had the capacity to repay. The foreign loan deficit grew worse, when African countries developed distortionary trade policies which did not favor the business sector, and also hurt the rural sector.

Programs during the initial phase emphasized tight monetary and fiscal policies. Although Bank policy analysts realized that these measures would have an adverse effect upon the poor and vulnerable groups within the participants'

?? Ibid.

31respective societies, they felt that in the long run, economic incentives would work in their favor.?®

Adjustment programs in Africa entered the second phase during 1984-1986, retaining all of the policy instruments of the first phase, and also adding an expanded time frame, with an emphasis on improving resource allocation and growth. The structure of economic incentives was altered by the implementing governments, so that trade and exchange policies and institutional reforms in areas such as marketing were improved, to aid the public sector's level of efficiency and investments.

During the second phase, emphasis shifted onto the social dimensions of adjustment. Public policies were adopted, in order to assist the poor and other societally vulnerable groups affected by adjustment programs. African governments realized at this point that vulnerable groups within their societies could not wait for benefits but needed attention immediately. Emphasis during the second phase was placed upon welfare and consumption, with examples present in Ghana, Guinea-Bissau, and Senegal's third structural adjustment loan program.?®

?® The World Bank, "The Meaning and Measurement of Poverty," in Making Adjustment Work for the Poor: A Framework for Policv Reform in Africa. Washington, D.C.: The World Bank, 1990, 49-50.

?® The World Bank, "Structural Adjustment and Poverty Alleviation," in Evaluation of the Social Dimensions of Structural Adjustment in Sub-Saharan Africa. Washington, D.C.: The World Bank, 1988, 2.

32The current phase of adjustment programs (1987-

present) , such as those active in Madagascar and Cameroon, have explicitly incorporated poverty reduction as a fundamental objective of adjustment policy. This phase requires an understanding of the effects of poverty, and requires a large statistical database for policy analysts.

The future phase of structural adjustment policy will put even greater emphasis upon the poor and vulnerable groups within society, and to achieve this objective, the design of the overall adjustment program must be adapted to include pricing and institutional reforms; the revision of public finance to include its expenditure and revenue dimensions; and the exploration of new forms of external financing in order to make macroeconomic policies more poverty conscious.

In light of this, by establishing an alternative framework to the short-term concentration on fiscal imbalances, SDA has come to the realization that the time for a shift in policy reform is near. This means considering the involvement of vulnerable groups^ in the recovery

The target groups of The World Bank's socially oriented adjustment policy unit include the chronic poor, whose condition is caused by multiple deprivations (e.g., poor health care and nutrition); the new poor, whose condition was brought on by the current economic crisis; and vulnerable socioeconomic groups, who have been adversely affected by the recession and deserve structural adjustment policy consideration. See The World Bank, The Social Dimensions of Adjustment; A Policv Agenda. United Nations

33process, and measuring the impact of adjustment policy ontheir social welfare. In other words, they must probesector-related economic defaults and:

trace how structural adjustment policies will ultimately affect the well-being of the populations involved. The social dimension, however, is not only important for equity; unless human capital is protected, sustainable economic growth in many African countries will itself be threatened.Subsequently, SDA has redefined and reconceptualized

"adjustment" and identified "the policy problem" as a basisfor policy design through the inclusion of an "integratedmethodology" for incorporating SDA into the macroeconomicpolicy objective of the Bank. This integrated policy toolwill enable the unit's task managers to design tailored,country-specific programs and to establish linkages betweentheir macro, micro and mesoeconomic strategies.^ SDA's

Development Programme, Africa Development Bank, Fourth Cycle, RAF/86/037/A/01/42. Washington, D.C.: The World Bank Social Dimensions of Adjustment Project Unit, 1990, 3-5.

The World Bank, "Structural Adjustment and Poverty:A Conceptual, Empirical, and Policy Framework: Executive Summary." United Nations Development Programme, African Development Bank, Fourth Cycle, RAF 86/037/A/01/42. Washington, D.C.: The World Bank Social Dimensions of Adjustment Project Unit, 1990, 1.

The SDA conceptual framework identifies three levels of analysis within the social effects of adjustment policy: 1) a macro level which includes the design and implementation of economic policies; 2) a micro or household level which captures socio-economic data and measures and records adjustment impacts; and finally 3) a meso or sector level which establishes correlations between macro and micro levels. For more on the conceptual framework, see The World Bank, "Assessment of the Social Dimension of Structural Adjustment in Sub-Saharan Africa," v.l, Washington, D.C.:The World Bank, 1989.

34view of adjustment is that it is the implementation of comprehensive shifts in macro and micro policies, both to respond to various shocks and to rectify inappropriate past policies that have hampered economic performance, the fundamental objective of which is to restore sustainable economic growth.

The World Bank has recognized that such economic shocks affect all policy objectives, (e.g., social, economic) and pays special tribute to the impact of adjustment programs on a government's public policies to eradicate poverty. A government's clear understanding of stabilization and structural adjustment is necessary, as there are two types of adjustment responses considered crucial to restore internal and external economic equilibria. However, the invention of the new concept 'meso' (the linkage between the macroeconomy and microeconomy of enterprises) adds a new dimension to a government's understanding of the policy reform processes. Markets, economic infrastructure, and social infrastructure are major variables in this linkage.

Assessing Social Dimensions of AdjustmentThe SDA policy objectives, are to 1) recognize "the

main links between events in the macroeconomy. . . and the mesoeconomy" and 2) to identify how "these intervening

The World Bank, "Structural Adjustment and Poverty: A Conceptual, Empirical, and Policy Framework," 1.

35méso-économie variables affect individuals and households over time."^ Consequently, SDA uses social units within African societies to evaluate the effect of a particular economic strategy on a society's welfare structure. Individuals and their personal well-being are unique in African culture, since decisions are usually made by an entire household unit. Households do not necessarily have to be occupied by only one family group, nor do all of the members of a particular household have to be blood-related; they serve as a unit, where decisions are made, and where empirical data can be analyzed, since its occupants inhabit a fixed location. However, identification of particular households varies between regions, since their size and other characteristics vary from country to country. Criteria used for evaluating households include income, food sources, and type of residence.

Welfare and the Economy of the Household One valuable tool which has been used by SDA to

measure the effectiveness of an individual household is the health and nutritional level of its members. The ages and

^ Ibid.. 2. See also The World Bank, "Structural Adjustment and Poverty: A Conceptual, Empirical, and Policy Framework: Executive Summary," 2; and also The World Bank, "Structural Adjustment and Poverty," volumes 1 through 3, United Nations Development Programme, African Development Bank, Fourth Cycle, RAF 86/037/A/01/42, Washington, D.C.: The World Bank, Social Dimensions of Adjustment Project Unit, 1990.

36health of household dwellers determine their level of labor productivity. The amount of capital possessed by individual members is based upon this factor. Human capital possessions are usually broken down into categories of equipment, monetary wealth, and durable goods. Households generate income by manufacture, the sale of items, and by providing employment for others. Some households produce goods only for their own consumption, and their income is calculated accordingly, while others generate income simply from their assets, such as bank account interest, and rent out their goods or assets to others. If income is generated by a particular household, it is known as primary income, while any income transferred from another household or the government to a particular household is designated as secondary income.

A household's economic structure is determined by how it decides to use available goods and its investment decisions. If a particular household does not produce enough income to provide food and health care for its members, the productivity and earning potential of its members will decrease. It is also important for a household to save some of its assets, to replace any productive finances that may have depreciated. Whether an individual household survives

Elaine Zuckerman, "Data Approaches and Analytical Methodologies," in Adjustment Programs and Social Welfare. World Bank Discussion Paper, no. 44, Washington, D.C.: The World Bank, 1989, 6-7.

37within an economic structure is determined by its ability to maintain high levels of both product consumption and investment patterns.^

SDA Analysis of Household Behavior Events and policies initiated by the Bank or a

recipient country for adjustment measures can either hurt or help an individual household's economy. If members within a particular household are forced to leave their source of employment, they may have to sell their assets, which will eventually have an adverse effect on any household self- employment. If individual members do not maintain appropriate food consumption levels, their nutritional and health status will suffer, their labor productivity will decrease, and their chances for sufficient future employment will deteriorate. On the other hand, suitable policy intervention by the Bank may reverse all of the above.

In sum, whether individuals in African societies prosper is dependent on many interacting and complex social and economic factors. Individual decisions are actually made by social units such as families or households.

Marco Ferroni, "Concepts and Estimation of Household Incomes and Expenditures within a System of Household Accounts," in Analvsis Plans for Understanding the Social Dimensions of Adjustment. Report no. 8691-AFR, Washington, D.C.; the World Bank, 1990, 207-211.

The World Bank, Structural Adjustment and Poverty; A Conceptual. Empirical and Policv Framework. Report no. 8393- AFR, Washington, D.C.; The World Bank, 1990, 56.

38Whether someone is categorized as being welfare dependent is strongly related to their position within their social unit.

The ownership of property is another determinant of household incomes, along with interest-bearing bank accounts. Any revenues generated by households are considered to be primary incomes, distinguishable from state profits which are classified as secondary incomes. How individual household units buy and invest their monetary resources is a crucial factor in the development of their economies. Whether or not individual household units succeed depends on a healthy level within their consumption and investment activities.

Individual household economies are both favorably or unfavorably affected by employment stability, and the corresponding consumption levels which affect nutrition and health; analysts within the social dimensions of adjustment policy unit have discovered that policy interventions can improve long-term economic prospects. Whether a household unit slips into welfare depends strongly upon their behavioral response to external and internal adjustment shocks.^ In addition to the conceptual framework, SDA has designed an empirical and policy framework to assess the

Tony Addison and others, "The Causes of Macro- economic Disequilibria," in Structural Adjustment and Poverty: Volume One. A Conceptual Framework. Washington, D.C.: The World Bank Internal Document, 1989, 5.

39social dimensions of structural adjustment in Sub-Saharan Africa/*

SDA's Policy Framework The ultimate objective of policy reform is to solve

the problems of identifiable target groups without severely affecting economic mechanisms already present within a country's financial policy.

Two important issues that are of the most concern to the Social Dimensions of Adjustment Project Unit are the levels of poverty and vulnerability within a given society. Poverty levels are measured by income (or expenditures) of households according to a given standard, and the amount of vulnerability is related to the effects of external economic shocks upon individual households and their reactions to implemented adjustment p r o g r a m s . S o m e of the poverty- stricken and vulnerable groups will not be affected, while others may show positive results from structural adjustment.

The poorest groups within a society are divided into two groups, the chronic poor, which includes the ultra poor, those affected by many negative factors, e.g., poor health.

* For an outline of these programs, see The World Bank, structural Adjustment and Poverty; Volume Two. An Empirical Framework. and The World Bank Internal Document, Structural Adjustment and Poverty; Volume Three. A Policv Framework, both Washington, D.C.; The World Bank, 1989.

The World Bank, "Designing Poverty-Sensitive Adjustment Programs," in Structural Adjustment and Povertv;A Conceptual. Empirical and Policy Framework. Executive Summary, 19.

40nutrition, and a lack of financial assets. Members of this group were destitute from their lack of possessions long before structural adjustment programs began. The new poor are those whose poverty is a direct result of adjustment measures. Vulnerable groups within a given society are those whose income is directly above the poverty line, who are in danger from the results of adjustment programs. Adjustment policy should be adopted so as to include even those forgotten during the construction of local government- sponsored recession p r o g r a m s . ^

An important aspect of structural adjustment in general is the ability it provides for a country to reduce its severest levels of chronic poverty.^ Socio-economic group classification should be used to further assist the assigning of adjustment policy priorities, so that both recession and adjustment effects within a given society can be measured simultaneously.

The usefulness of employing poverty and vulnerability criteria in identifying socio-economic status in adjustment programs provides the analyst with the ability to identify target groups to address with their concerns over bank policy. Some of the target groups may be classified within

'** Elaine Zuckerman, "Solutions to Protect the Poor," in Adjustment Programs and Social Welfare. World Bank Discussion Papers, no. 44, Washington, D.C.; The World Bank, 1989, 14-19.

The World Bank, Structural Adjustment and Povertv: Volume One. A Conceptual Framework. 102.

41identifiable economic groups, while others are a combination of several categories, e.g., female-headed households.^

The hierarchical information system used by the SDA Project Unit allows the researcher the ability to set national priorities within a given country's adjustment policy.

Despite the best efforts of adjustment policy analysts to control and monitor the social dimensions of adjustment, there will always be those who profit and those who are negatively affected. This is because adjustment programs directly affect a country's economic structure of output and expenditures. For example, the wealthy do not have to be considered in adjustment policy intervention, because, over time, they are usually able to recoup their losses, but the poor must be gauged, in order to determine alternatives to aid them in coping during the transitional period.* Conclusively, since certain classes of poor people exist at a level above mere subsistence, even short-term adjustment losses can be devastating. If a short-term loss is

* For an assessment of the unusual nature of this phenomena see The World Bank, "Analysis Plan: Role of Women Under Structural Adjustment," Washington, D.C.: The World Bank, 1989, 4-6.

* Joan M. Nelson, "The Politics of Pro-Poor Adjustment," in Fragile Coalitions: The Politics of Economic Adjustment, edited by Joan M. Nelson, Washington, D.C.: Overseas Development Council, 1989, 95-105; See also Graham Hancock, Lords of Povertv: The Power. Prestige, and Corruption of the International Aid Business. New York: The Atlantic Monthly Press, 1989, 128-130.

42experienced by the poor during an adjustment program's implementation phase, then their productive assets usually have to be sold in order to provide for their current needs. These emergency actions improve the poor's chances to generate income which can lift them out of any poverty conditions that they may encounter in the future.*

The ultimate goal in aid to the poor is to keep the level of poverty at its lowest possible rate.* When adjustment programs sensitive to poverty issues are designed, they must be examined to make sure that levels of adjustment, growth, efficiency, and the reduction of macroeconomic imbalances have not been affected.*

Sometimes, but not always, the improvement of equity levels within adjustment programs can also improve efficiency within a country's economy.* But most if not all of any policy reforms implemented as adjustment measures have an adverse effect upon the poor, usually during their short-run efforts. In these instances, the most effective strategy for adjustment policy analysts is to implement

* The World Bank, "Social Action Programs," in Structural Adjustment and Povertv: Volume Three. A Policy Framework. Washington. D.C.: The World Bank. 56.

46 Ibid.. 58.* Deepak Lai, "The Political Economy of Economic

Liberalization," The World Bank Economic Review 1/2 (1987) 284.

* Ibid., 289.

43measures to complement the adjustment program without changing its overall economic structure or policy.*

The ultimate goal of the Social Dimensions of Adjustment Project Unit is therefore the elimination of poverty by aiding in the development of livelihoods. Many development programs initiated by other agencies share this objective, such as those implemented by the U.S. Agency for International Development. The Bank is concerned with the design of adjustment programs which can maximize any benefits that can be received by the poor. By stressing adjustment incentives which can aid the poor, other poverty programs also receive benefits. But the main focus of the SDA unit is problems involving individual societies when viewed as a whole, identifying areas which may not have already been covered by other programs in progress.

Adjustment programs are developed so that the economy is strengthened when governments adopt SDA's desired policies and accept financing in the areas in which it is offered.Adjustment programs at the Bank strive toward an equilibrium between both fiscal payments and the flow of

* The World Bank, "Economy-wide Modelling Techniques," in Analvsis Plans for Understanding the Social Dimensions of Adjustment, 38-40.

5° The World Bank, "The Meaning and Measurement of Poverty," in Structural Adjustment and Povertv. Report no. 8393-AFR, 1990, 66.

51 John Nellis and Sunita Kikeri, "Public Enterprise Reform: Privatization and the World Bank," World Development 17/5 (1989): 663-670.

44monetary supply. Analysts always attempt to avoid macroeconomic imbalances which destroy the levels of equality between the needs of individual households and the supplies needed to meet their demands. Some of the occurrences which affect levels of monetary equilibrium include supply shocks to the economy, and domestic policies, which tend to try to expand resources to where they will not exist. Occasionally, if levels are not properly corrected, a country can eventually lose its foreign reserve exchange and its credit rating.^ For these reasons, it is important that adjustment measures are not delayed.

Programs involving stabilization measures attempt to obtain microeconomic balances by placing restrictions on household demands. The devaluation of the unit of currency and its aggregate demand is determined by the levels of consumption undertaken by the members of society and the amount of money spent by a government on its major public needs. When government officials place restrictions on its expenditures of public funds, aggregate demand is placed in jeopardy. This condition can be avoided, if, at the same time, restrictions are placed on levels of private and

5 A discussion of this dilemma occurs in Rudiger Dornbusch, "Debt Problems and the World Macroeconomy," in Developing Countrv Debt and the World Economv. edited by Jeffrey D. Sachs, Chicago; The University of Chicago Press, 1989, 299-311.

45public investments.5* In turn, if private and public investments can be protected while the level of resources consumed by the poor and government funds spent on their behalf can be controlled, then an implemented program may be successful.

The first goal in establishing effective levels of economic stability to implement adjustment measures is the elimination of wasteful government spending and the raising of profits from those less affected by the economy. To protect the poor during the initial phases of adjustment programs, a country's government must assess the poor's capacity to meet demands for available resources, and whether or not it is possible for those not in poverty to control their consumption levels to aid the rest of the population.*

Bank analysts must also be careful not to eliminate monetary or other incentives to the working class in their quest to aid the poor. The general rule is that the elimination of working-class incentives should not exceed levels of need or consumption by the poor. If the country's government restrains the flow of monetary supply, then the increased interest rates will not encourage anyone to invest

55 For examples of this phenomenon, see Ernest Stern, "World Bank Financing of Structural Adjustment," in IMF Conditionalitv. edited by John Williamson, Washington, D.C.: Institute for International Economics, 1983, 97.

5 The World Bank, Making Adjustment Work for the Poor. 91-92.

46their savings or increase their consumption rate.* Inevitably, a restriction on monetary supplies will decrease the net income of the working class and consumption levels will drop.

If financing is provided, there is less chance that programs designed to aid the poor will have to be disturbed during periods of stabilization. If enough financing is found, there is also the remote possibility that an increase in both private and public investment levels may occur. External financing is always desirable, because it permits Bank analysts to provide additional attention to both growth and efficiency objectives, and it also gives them a chance to achieve the desired macroeconomic balances.* If most of the external deficit figures and inflation can be eliminated by export expansions and investments involving the foreign exchange, there is hope that stabilization can be transformed into a structural adjustment program.*

At this time, poverty programs specifically designed to work with structural adjustment are few, due to a lack of empirical data. If the market within a certain region is

55 Deepak Lai, "The Political Economy of Economic Liberalization," 275.

5® Ernest Stern, "World Bank Financing of Structural Adjustment," 98.

5 Stephan Haggard and Robert Kaufman, "The Politics of Stabilization and Structural Adjustment," in Developing Countrv Debt and the World Economv. edited by Jeffrey D. Sachs, Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1989, 267-273.

47Inflexible, when an adjustment program is initiated, the best method for obtaining macroeconomic policy objectives is to combine methods of design, to affect the outcome of poverty levels within output, employment and incomes.*

It is also necessary to understand the ways in which different levels of macroeconomic policy designs interact. Analysts use a variety of tools to determine whether the outcomes of macroeconomic scenarios are advantageous to the poor.* In this way, they can determine how sensitive poverty levels are to the manipulation of domestic and external economic variables.*

SDA's Empirical Framework Policies of adjustment can be divided into two

divisions, those of stabilization and those of structural adjustment. Stabilization policies are designed to improve the levels between supply and demand based on the lowering of unreasonable debt levels and inflation adjustment. Structural adjustment policies are intended to shift the productive resources in a nation's economy into more

5* The World Bank, "Monetary and Financial Policy," in Structural Adjustment and Povertv. Report no. 8393-AFR, 1990, 156-158.

5® The World Bank, "The Poor and the Vulnerable," in Analvsis Plans for Understanding the Social Dimensions of Adjustment. 50.

* Ibid.. 52-54; see also The World Bank, "Meso-Micro Analysis," in Making Adjustment Work for the Poor. 85-86.

48lucrative economic areas by encouraging changes in a country's reward and incentive structure.

The course that a country pursues usually relies on the organization of product demand and the use of fiscal and monetary instruments and reforms in their market structure. Those who write policy must select the best combination of the above to achieve the intended objectives, taking into account the organizational impact across the entire spectrum of socio-economic groups within a given society. Empirical policies are used to measure the social dimensions of adjustment within the formation of a country's fiscal structure."

The most important element within the SDA's empirical framework is the organization of a national information system. Policy makers need information which is both timely and accurate in order to schedule the structure and timing of adjustment policy. Data is necessary in order to measure the financial elements which affect macroeconomic policy.It is also important to take into account who can possibly be affected, either positively or negatively, by the reform process which is eventually adopted. Sometimes alterations in distribution levels can affect policy in a temporary or permanent manner, and on other occasions the results of

William R. Cline, "Economic Stabilization in Developing Countries: Theory and Stylized Facts," in IMF Conditionalitv. edited by John Williamson, Washington, B.C.: Institute for International Economics, 1983, 206-208.

49policy measures are from outside organizational restrictions.

Data on various societal levels is necessary to evaluate which groups are affected by the varying financial levels of adjustment. In most African countries, national management information systems have not developed to the point where policy-makers can receive data in order to effectively measure the social dimensions of adjustment.The Bank hopes that African politicians review their current information systems and introduce more statistically oriented products so that both statisticians and data users can evaluate the social costs within the variousministries. ®5

A necessary component for a country to effectively participate in a national information system is the formation of a user's committee for the promotion of relations and correspondence between adjustment planners, analysts, and their respective statistical agencies. Additionally, the organization of outside agencies, with allowances made for the training of statisticians to measure the levels affecting the social dimensions of adjustment is also necessary. A country's information must be available at each of the economic levels of adjustment (macro, meso.

" The World Bank, "A Hierarchical Information System," in Making Adjustment Work for the Poor. Washington, D.C.: The World Bank, 1990, 62-65.

®5 Ibid. . 65.

50and micro) if Bank analysts are to effectively measure the changes occurring within individual households.*

A hierarchical view of the economic levels of adjustment is helpful in viewing both data and empirical analyses presented within country studies. The information given for evaluation can be divided into analysis, actual examples of classic adjustment, or individual case studies based on empirical or raw data (e.g., a census), or constructs assembled from the collected information (national reports, statistics, or trends) .®5 An information system with a hierarchical structure can provide analysts with a method to view current data to identify gaps and deficiencies and ways in which Bank strategies can alleviate and correct them.

A useful database of country information must be able to measure country trends such as gross national product and individual incomes, outstanding debts, and aggregate expenditures. These will also include subaggregate expenditures, such as individual sector allocations and allowances made for productive resources.

* The World Bank, "Strengthening National Information Systems," in structural Adjustment and Povertv: Volume Three. A Policy Framework. Washington, D.C.: The World Bank, 1989, 58-59.

®5 The World Bank, The Social Dimensions of Adjustment in Africa: A Policv Agenda. Washington, D.C., The World Bank, 1990, 18.

51Another function of this system should aid in the

identification of lucrative operations which have a positive effect on both production and household incomes. It should be able to trace pay at locations within individual households and to separate them by income distribution levels.* One of the goals of the Social Dimensions of Adjustment Project Unit is the improvement of data collection at the micro and meso levels of adjustment to include surveys performed at both the household and community levels.*

One device used to measure and integrate information collected for the hierarchical information system is the Social Accounting Matrix (SAM). To this end, the primary aim of the SAM is to identify the most important generators of income during the transfer of funds, which are affected by the implementation of adjustment measures. It is used to calculate the entire distribution path, and it serves to identify distributional issues and individual well-being.In addition, the SAM can be used to organize data from different sources a macroeconomic level of adjustment.*Its utility is based on the availability of analyzable data

* Elaine Zuckerman, Adjustment Programs and Social Welfare. 6-7.

Ibid.The World Bank, "The Social Accounting Matrix," in

structural Adjustment and Povertv; A Conceptual. Empirical and Policv Framework. 133-138.

52and the information required for analysis and policy recommendations.

The SAM addresses the meso level of economic adjustment by measuring selected products, fluctuating resources, and individual household savings. The macroeconomic data priorities of the Social Dimensions of Adjustment Project Unit include social and geographical information which is necessary to determine trends in macroeconomic adjustment. Financial accounts in this area include national records, public records, balance-of-payment arrangements, and data on monetary resources.*

Problems existing in this type of measurement analysis include how to define the overall goal of production and the proper identification of actors within the informal sector. Indicators of social well-being are of little use to those who analyze the social dimensions of adjustment. Household information provides data on current expenditures more reliable than those provided by national accounts.

The meso level of adjustment activity is measured indirectly, since markets provide unusual problems for the analyst attempting to obtain observable data.’® National census takers can usually provide the necessary data on sectoral production and the going rates for outputs traded.

69 Ibid.The World Bank, "Information Requirements at the Meso

Level," in Making Adjustment Work for the Poor. 70-75.

53The activities of the labor market are also measured in many countries, but it is usually unreliable in providing meso- micro connected information for SDA researchers.

To obtain current data on individual households, surveys are taken to determine how adjustment affects economic and social services in terms of availability and quality. Parallel markets also provide important data which is difficult to collect, but is essential in the determination of the social dimensions of adjustment. The needs of researchers collecting microeconomic data on adjustment include the measurement of individual well-being, usually determined by the transmission of household surveys.

In some African countries, social units are chosen over households as survey models. Researchers must also be careful so that they do not overlook groups within household units, such as servants, who may help to identify microeconomic structural adjustment measures. An accounting must also be made for individuals within household allocations, so that the effect of the consequences of adjustment can be accurately m e a s u r e d .

A necessary component in the study of information on a microeconomic policy level is the grouping of individual

The World Bank, "The Household Unit," in Structural Adjustment and Povertv; Volume Two. An Empirical Framework. 28-32.

72 Ibid.

54households by their social and economic status. In grouping households in this fashion, it is necessary to use homogenous groupings by income levels, financial worth, social status, and their geographic nature, in order to focus and target the implementation of policy measures. The reason for the measurement of these particular components by the SDA unit is to determine which groups are the most vulnerable during the implementation of adjustment measures. Another important aspect of the social dimensions is how country poverty levels will be affected/"

The most prevalent traits of poverty and the range of its effects are necessary to gauge in order to evaluate the data collected during household surveys. In this procedure, the social dimensions of adjustment project unit can identify target groups within a population to survey already implemented policy." The vulnerable poor are those within a given society that have been affected by adjustment economic measures, e.g., shocks within the economy.

Other vulnerable groups which must be taken into account are those that were affected by government actions taken just before a structural adjustment loan was

" The World Bank, "SDA Household and Community Surveys," in Structural Adjustment and Povertv; A Conceptual.Empirical and Policv Framework. Executive Summary. Washington, D.C.; The World Bank, 1989, 15-17.

" The World Bank, structural Adjustment and Poverty. Report no. 8393-AFR, Washington, D.C.; The World Bank, 1990, 126.

55implemented. It has been proven impossible to choose a poverty classification system that will include all of the variously affected societal groups. While keeping all of the affected groups in mind, an analyst must still choose a s y s t e m . " Both household incomes and expenditures must be derived from the collected survey data. The researcher can also compile levels of poverty (in an index), including those affected by incidents of poverty, the frequency of economic shocks, and their levels of societal inequality.

In order to maintain both a microeconomic level of structural adjustment loan analysis and a level of coherency within the hierarchical information system, it is necessary to include a multitude of subjects within an individual household survey.

Two types of methodologies exist within the surveys given by the social dimensions of adjustment project unit; the Integrated Survey (IS), which uses a questionnaire format that attempts to measure the level of difficulty within different household groups to implement adjustment and its effect on both economic levels and their responses to government policy incentives; and the Priority Survey (PS), which is used to gauge initial essential information

" The World Bank, "Strengthened National Information Systems," in The Social Dimensions of Adjustment in Africa. 17.

56in a speedy manner." The Priority Survey is usually shorter than the integrated survey and it is usually administered to a larger sample of households. The Priority Survey assumes a monitoring role in the implementation of structural adjustment policy, since socio-economic indicators change within a nation's economy. In contrast, the Integrated Survey is used to provide more detailed information for full diagnostic analyses."

The survey conducted by the SDA Project Unit in individual households and communities addresses household size and member composition; education levels; health status; employment information concerning each member; privileges accorded to the household, due to individual member status; the monetary worth of each household member; production capacities evaluated in terms of agricultural and non-agricultural output; and food consumption and other expenditures. Priority Surveys are designed so that a participant can complete relevant information in less than one hour. Most of the data collected in a Priority Survey is centered around indicators of welfare within individual

" The World Bank, "An Analysis Plan for the SDA Priority Survey," in Analvsis Plans for Understanding the Social Dimensions of Adjustment. Report no. 8691-AFR, Washington, D.C.; The World Bank, 1990, 183-206.

" Ibid., 183-184.

57households.'^®

Usually, the SDA unit administers the Integrated Survey during its second year of adjustment, with the Priority Survey acting as a monitoring unit during the third and fourth years of the program. Some countries will require an integrated survey to be postponed until their data collection procedures have been developed to a point where complex units can be processed and analyzed.^

In this context, another important component of the SDA Project Unit Survey Program is the data collected and compiled for individual communities. Community surveys are designed in order to measure both micro and mesoeconomic patterns, in conjunction with institutional, sectoral and price-gauging surveys.

The objectives of the SDA/s hierarchical information system and the Social Dimensions of Adjustment Project Unit Survey Program are to provide tools for evaluating or monitoring alternative strategies for implementing policies, in order to predict their possible outcome, and to assess how chosen adjustment policies will affect individual

For additional information on the collection of this data, see "Structural Adjustment, Income Distribution, and Data Analysis," in Making Adjustment Work for the Poor. 59- 60.

The World Bank, "An Analysis Plan for the SDA Priority Survey," 206.

®° The World Bank, "Household and Community Surveys," in Structural Adjustment and Poverty. Report no. 8393-AFR, Washington, D.C.: The World Bank, 1990, 111-114.

58household units. Together these two components attempt to accurately gauge macro, micro and mesoeconomic linkages to assess the effect of adjustment programs upon welfare levels."

One model used in the analysis of household data is the aggregate model, due to its ease of management and applicability to a variety of country situations. It addresses the microeconomic data which may not be entirely appropriate in meso-level structures. Multi-market models used to measure the effect of price and trade policies are also beneficial in conducting analyses of mesoeconomic data.

The Political Dimensions of Adjustment Rapprochement within the current world situation may

not guarantee its commitment to equity, sustainability, and social and ethnic diversity, but it does denote a continued world acceptance of the protectionist Western economic model of development. This rapid global change may give an incentive to nation-state governments in their attempts to strengthen their social, political and economic systems to undergo processes of further development. Consequently, it may prompt developing country's governments to undertake

81 Ibid.. 112.The World Bank, "Analyzing the Meso-Economic Effects

of Structural Adjustment," in Analvsis Plans for Understanding the Social Dimensions of Adjustment. 2-3.

59sustainable institutional reform. The acceptance of this newinternational economic order requires a systematicinstitutional reform. Policy and institutional changesbrought about by economic reform programs are considereddomestic matters.®®

Lending agencies such as the World Bank hope not tointerfere within sovereign state affairs. Their policytowards development was described in a 1984 World Bankpolicy paper:

The task before donors is therefore clear and urgent. If donors increase their support for policy reforms and basic programs, they will help Africa overcome its immediate economic and financial crisis. They will also be building the prospect of a better, more hopeful future."This increased demand for a reform of public policies

demonstrates the importance of the political and economicmarket - in other words, the strong existing linkage betweenconventional economic markets and the formation ofgovernment public policy. Ubiquitous concern directedtoward the high transactional costs of designing andimplementing economic reform has its origins in the above.The high transitional costs of this reform has contributedto the inadequacies of institutional mechanisms to

®® Stanley Fischer, "Resolving the International Debt Crisis," in Developing Country Debt and the World Economv. 315, 322.

® The World Bank, Towards Sustainable Development in Sub-Saharan Africa. Washington, D.C.: The World Bank, 1984, 48.

60compensate the poor and other at-risk social groups, withadjustment costs resulting from institutional changes andpotential damage to the government's credibility toimplement reform policies. In light of the importance ofthe political economy of policy reform and the Bank'sconcern for domestic policy change, concepts such as"conditionality," "policy dialogue," and many others haveemerged in their vocabularies, to express their influence onpolicy decision-making. Conditionality and policy dialogueare meant to encourage macroeconomic, sectoral andinstitutional changes." For example, "high-conditionalitylending" has been used as an instrument by both the WorldBank and the International Monetary Fund to manage andoversee the debt crisis since 1982:

High-conditionality lending refers to the process in which international institutions make loans based on the promise of borrowing countries to pursue a specified set of policies. . .continued lending. . . could be justified by several nonmarket criteria: as a form of aid, as an investment by the creditor governments that finance the IMF and World Bank in political and economic stability of the debtor country . . .; as an extension of the foreign policy interests of the major creditor governments; as a defense of the international financial system . .

Samuel Paul, "Institutional Reforms in Sector Adjustment Operations," World Bank Working Papers, Policy, Planning, and Research, Washington, D.C.: The World Bank, 1989; See also Geoffrey Lamb, "Managing Economic Policy Change: Institutional Dimensions," World Bank Discussion Papers no. 14, Washington, D.C.: The World Bank, 1987.

Jeffrey D. Sachs, "Conditionality, Debt Relief, and the Developing Country Debt Crisis," in Developing Country Debt and the World Economv. edited by Jeffrey D. Sachs, Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1989, 275-276.

61Adjustment and Political Stability

Government officials and scholars within academia feel strongly that the conditions set by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for their loans create problems of political instability within developing countries. Aspects of the IMF policy which have had a profound effect on political stability within developing nations include: its mandate structure, which can control a country's balance-of- payments; its structure as an agent outside of normal country operations; and its tendency to preserve existing governments, which may eventually result in adverse effects."

The actual role of the IMF is to aid a nation in adopting adjustment measures, and to attempt to avoid any signs of political instability. Conditionality within a country's adjustment program can also affect a nation's economic stability, and may or may not support the desires of its economists and politicians. Countries which do participate with the IMF have a greater opportunity to impose austerity measures, if necessary, and their politicians are less likely to be bound by any economic constraints.

Paul Mosley, Conditionality as Bargaining Process: Structural Adjustment Lending. 1980-86. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University, Department of Economics, Essays in International Finance no. 168, 1987, 6.

62If a developing nation's expenditures or foreign

exchange is greater than the receipts added to its economy, then balance-of-payment difficulties may be created. The only known method for a country in this condition to solve its dilemma is to increase its income, getting other nations to help or invest in their economy, decreasing their debt service payments, and cutting absorption in the forms of consumer consumption, investments and government expenditures. ®®

The IMF can aid an ailing government by setting ceilings for credit expansion and the devaluation of its currency, to erase previous balance-of-payment deficits caused by monetary expansion. Since final goods prices, inputs by intermediate inputs by economic actors, and production factors are all affected by IMF programs, various societal groups within developing nations link their welfare to Fund policies. If the IMF imposes monetary restrictions, workers may see a reduction in their employment wages, in order to avoid later unemployment.

The amount of mobility that individuals possess is crucial to how programs implemented by the IMF will affect both their production and employment. Eventually, any decreases in monetary expansions imposed by the IMF will result in unemployment. Expenditures cannot be reduced further without firing employees, and countries without

Ibid.

63sufficient industries will not be able to provide reemployment." It is possible for the government of a developing nation to predict how economic policies will have an impact on their country's politics.

The amount of time taken for a program's implementation will also affect its progress and the country's ability to obtain stability. Furthermore, the prospect for a country to use the IMF will in itself produce internal political conditions of division, because some will repudiate debts, while others will even object to the IMF's interference. **

Because the World Bank places a strong emphasis on policy reform within its member countries, it is able to participate politically within governments. According to Geoffrey Lamb of The World Bank, Bank analysts should always be careful not to lessen the importance of political factors within institutional development issues. He asserts that it is important for adjustment programs to follow a schedule which mirrors both the political actions, and the economic policies undertaken by a member government, and analysts who implement adjustment programs at the Bank must be aware of a

Raymond Vernon, "Obsolescent Industries," in Twilight of the State-Owned Enterprise. Washington, B.C.: Economic Development Institute of the World Bank, 1988, 8-9.

Henry S. Bienen and Mark Gersovitz, "Economic Stabilization, Conditionality, and Political Stability," International Organization 39/4 (1985): 729-755.

64country's political patterns so that policies can be adjusted accordingly."

The stability of a particular government weighs heavily upon a particular adjustment program's effectiveness. Similarly, a government secure in its structure and policy undertakings will include many conditions within its adjustment programs, and will be able to customize their methods to promote serious reforms. These factors compel Bank analysts to bear in mind that the political nature of countries is unpredictable and liable to change, regardless of how carefully a particular program has been outlined.®® There are always political and economic forces and bureaucratic concerns which will override any political concerns of the actors involved, including measures implemented by industry and commerce, construction, their public works department, and the investments made on their behalf. Further, there will always be friction between government ministries which outline policy objectives and economic and financial agencies which have their own ideas on how to correct financial irregularities within stabilization and recovery measures. Again, it is important

Geoffrey Lamb, "Managing Economic Policy Change: Institutional Dimensions." World Bank Discussion Paper no. 14. Washington, D.C.: The World Bank, 1987.

®® Merilee S. Grindle and John W. Thomas, "The Political Economy of Policy Reform in Developing Countries," Unpublished Typescript, Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard Institute for International Development, 1987, 11.

65for Bank analysts to take into consideration political and economic factors, since economic agencies will provide more guidance during financial crises, with financial ministries playing a larger role only when a crisis has been placed under control.

Adjustment measures must also take into account the political objectives of elected officials, which may differ from stated policy objectives. Elected officials must answer to a variety of constituencies which possess broad interests that may influence policy. Because of the various political agents at work within a particular government, rational models of adjustment implementation are not always feasible. Yet, another component which weighs heavily upon the effectiveness of adjustment measures is the internal stability of the implementing country's government. The Bank's role in aiding policy decisions within weak governmental structures includes the holding of leaders to policy decisions that they agreed upon during their original campaign promises. The most effective way for the Bank to improve policy accountability is by educating leaders on the structures of needed policies, and their political consequences. ®®

®® Geoffrey Lamb, "Managing Economic Policy Change: Institutional Dimensions," World Bank Discussion Paper no. 14, Washington, D.C.: The World Bank, 1987, 6-10.

66The Political Challenges of Managing Adjustment The building and management of coalitions is the

primary goal of politically organized, economic adjustment programs. Although coalitions may vary in terms of their economic structure, in all of them there will be actors who stand to gain more than others. Waterbury suggests that analysts must consider how various aspects of adjustment programs will affect various coalitions within a given country." The challenge for political leaders within adjustment coalitions is to avoid offending any of the various actors. For example, in Senegal in August of 1983, President Abdou Diouf raised consumer prices, froze civil service salaries and hiring, lowered groundnut producer prices, and placed an emergency tax on the public payroll, all in the midst of a serious drought. If President Diouf had initiated reforms in anticipation of the coming drought, he would not have had to impose this series of drastic economic shocks at the same time, a measure sure to alienate him among many of the groups within his society.

Countries which undertake adjustment programs face social and bureaucratic challenges within their political structures. The social challenge within structural adjustment involves the equal distribution of the costs and

" John Waterbury, "The Political Management of Economic Adjustment and Reform," in Fragile Coalitions; The Politics of Economic Adjustment, edited by Joan M. Nelson, New Brunswick, N.J.; Washington, D.C.; Transaction Books and Overseas Development Council, 1989, 39-56.

67benefits of reforms, and how these reforms will affect various societal groups. In both bureaucratic and social challenges to adjustment programs, the governments' inability to carry out plans as they were designed derives from their desire to perpetuate their behavior, which is designed to continue their mode of life and thought, with no concern for their fellow man.®®

Ironically, the ultimate goal of a coalition leader should be to keep the size of the coalition as small as possible, for this enables the leader to maintain, limit, and focus their available resources. Since political and economic conditions are limited within a given country, coalitions are usually larger than necessary to successfully accomplish goals set forth within adjustment programs.®*

For structural adjustment to be successful, Waterbury adds, it will be necessary to allocate resources in discretionary amounts, in order to meet the required goals of allocation. Sometimes it may necessary for a government to shed unneeded coalition partners, e.g., organized labor groups, private enterprises of no inherent value, and public sector projects which may be ultimately destructive. He further concedes that the possible final effect to a party

®® Joan M. Nelson, "The Politics of Stabilization: Political Sustainability; What Governments Can do," in Adjustment Crisis in the Third World, edited by Richard E. Feinberg and Valeriana Kallab, Washington, D.C.: Overseas Development Council, 1984, 108-111.

®* John Waterbury, "The Political Management," loc. cit.

68ousted from a coalition may be political isolation, paralysis, and eventually, a loss of economic power. Consequently, it may be necessary for those who plan adjustment programs to allocate resources to preserve an existing coalition, so that special interest groups within societies do not risk isolation during the structural adjustment implementation process.

The rewards for coalition constituencies can be outlined in the form of economic outlays, designed to aid the adjustment process, and compensatory payments in various amounts, to those who incur to receive losses. This last measure is usually condemned by economic advisors, with periodic wage increases, temporary goods subsidies, and public housing seen as alternative measures."

The World Bank's Adjustment Lending Policy; What Are theRetrospects?

A review of World Bank adjustment literature since 1980 indicates a tendency towards longer-term adjustment policies, with an emphasis on sustainable growth. Based upon The World Bank's recommendations, however, governments continue to reform state-owned enterprises, and to increase privatization efforts. Cuts have been affected in government subsidies, especially in the social services, such as health and education, and consequently, infant mortality rates, malnutrition, and school dropout rates are

" Ibid., 39-41.

69on the rise. Due to the high costs imposed upon the population, especially upon the middle class, the loan receiving government runs the high political risk of losing support for economic reform." In other words, the ability of the recipient governments to sustain the adjustment process and to make sound policy decisions necessary for stable, long-term growth and development is always at risk. The fact is that governments are often challenged by the masses for immediate action, to address the consequences of adjustment. Youths and their parents, frustrated by adjustment measures resulting in unemployment and dislocation, will always demand government action to address employment-generated policies, and to bring about social welfare reform."

In sum, this chapter has presented an overview of the most current literature on the policy of lending and the various facets of its functionalities and its subsequently unmeasured impact on social structures in the developing nations which received adjustment loans. An institutional policy of such a caliber, consequently, requires a periodic assessment of its successes and failures in its formulation and implementation stages in order to preempt the possible implications which may have degredating effects on the

®® Joan M. Nelson, "Leaders' Perceptions of Risks," in Notes on the Political Economy of Adjustment. 3-4.

" The World Bank, "The Impact of Adjustment on Employment and Earnings," in Analvsis Plans. 67-69.

70recipient countries. Therefore, the following chapter proposes a method for analyzing public policy from a historical perspective through an examination of the available institutional documentation which provides a frame and displays the coherence of the articulated policy as it was presented over time. This approach also attempts to clarify the consciousness of the Bank's management, and how they manifested their policy actions on a conscious level. This theoretical treatise therefore provides an approach for examining the various componential elements of the articulated policy, and evaluates the coherence of the socio-political analysis within the examined Bank's official internal documents during the years 1980-1989. This method also presents the Bank's general approach, or mental model, as it was applied towards the regions of Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean.

CHAPTER III METHODOLOGY

The methodology adopted in Chapter III takes the Bank's policy of structural adjustment as an example to demonstrate the utility of the proposed method, and the theories presented address the global implications of this dissertation's research. This chapter presents the theoretical basis and methodology presented for analyzing the various componential elements of the World Bank's adjustment policy statements and the institutional approach which was taken towards selected countries within Africa, Latin America, and the Caribbean during the years 1980-1989. An approach is also provided here for an evaluation of the coherence within the Bank's policy statements and their social and political significance. This method also illustrates the Bank's general institutional approach, and mental model.

The Theoretical Foundation The methodological approach used here was drawn from

recent philosophical developments in phenomenological inquiry. The roots of such a scientific inquiry, in the

71

72Anglo-American tradition, can be traced to the writings ofLudwig Wittgenstein and Edmund Husserl.

Wittgenstein arose in the Western World as thestrongest influence and reaction to the structured theoriesformulated by social philosophers during the 1950s and 1960sregarding the general laws of history and society and thestructure within the explanation of social phenomena.

For example, analysts interpreting his theories arguedthat causal laws had an effect on the deeds performed bymen. These laws were viewed in an obtuse manner byphilosophers who were qualified to interpret them, and theamount of causality found within them was highly disputed.

Here, this study takes the philosophical position thatthe epistemological concepts which form the essence of anidea are "embedded in the object examined."*

This idea had its roots in the phenomenological formof analysis propounded by Husserl:

The phenomenological tenet that reality is somehow constituted by the cognitive processes through which it is grasped was applied to social experience to generate the doctrine of the 'social construction of social reality,' the thesis that social fact is the product of the 'meanings' which human beings bestow upon their interactions. This conception entailed a methodological corollary to the effect that social science must penetrate the social agents' subjective interpretation of their actions and incorporate them into a scientific picture of the social world. Given its constitutive role.

* Finn Collin, Theorv and Understanding: A Critique of Interpretive Social Science. Oxford: Basil Blackwell, 1985, X , xi.

73failure to appreciate this interpretation would be a failure to come to grips with social reality altogether.®

Also, it is based on such tenets as the belief that socialscientific research endeavors to develop a "normativeinterpretation of social reality" for the purposes ofassessing social formations.®

The rationale of such an "interpretive" approach,which lies within a hermeneutical sociology of knowledge,was derived from a phenomenological tradition as it wastraced within the works of Hans-Georg Gadamer and AlfredSchütz. Although the roots of the sociology of knowledgecover the work of Karl Mannheim and goes beyond Karl Marx,Max Weber, Emile Durkheim and August Comte, the presentresearcher has refrained from guiding the reader beyondGadamer and Schütz, contemporary phenomenologicalsociologists.'*

Gadamer's hermeneutical theory of the sociology ofknowledge includes the observation that the appropriatenessof a proposed action can be analyzed in the context of itslinguistic usage, and can be understood as a phenomenon in

® Ibid.® Ibid., xi.'* Hans-Georg Gadamer, Truth and Method. New York:

Continuum, 1975; Alfred Schütz, The Phenomenology of the Social World. Evanston, 111.: Northwestern University Press, 1967; see also Paul Ricoeur and Hans-Georg Gadamer, "The Conflict of Interpretations," in Ronald Bruzina and Bruce Wilshire (eds.). Phenomenology: Dialogues and Bridges. Albany: SUNY Press, 1982, 299-320.

74its "unique and historical concreteness."® By employing Gadamer's hermeneutical tools of textual deconstruction, one can fuse the ideas of social action and theoretical analysis into a single tool.*

Furthermore, the philosophical work of Alfred Schütz also contributed to this study. Schütz believed that the actions performed by human beings were only intelligible within an individual's personally constructed mental model. He warned analysts not to construct overly technical models which bore an abstract relationship to the social realities created by the subjects themselves. He believed that by creating a model which corresponded to a subject's mental model could an analyst draw his propositions one step further to reach hypotheses and conclusions based upon the presented material. Subjective attributes within the analysis had to also be taken into account, in order to determine the causality of the actors involved.

* Hans-Georg Gadamer, Truth and Method. 1975, 6.* Hermeneutics, or the understanding of how to

interpret texts, is based upon an effective historical consciousness, a "temporal distance," and an historical perspective which relies upon displayed biases. Gadamer asserted that the sole purpose for humans to exercise their powers of reason was to strive to identify prejudices which are seen as legitimate by the populace. To identify these areas was to obtain what he called a "fusing of horizons," i.e., a place where all of the environmental and social factors could be placed in their proper perspective. All, of them in turn, apply to the analysis of action as well as texts (Ibid.).

75Cognitive sociologists, such as Noam Chomsky, have

also propounded this theory, stressing the dependency of the realities constructed on discrete symbols, which allow the analyst to draw systematic relationships between data which originally appeared to be somewhat chaotic in its nature.® Such an interpretation is reflected in the following excerpt;

[T]he observational field of the social scientist-social reality - has a specific meaning and relevance structure for the human beings living, acting and thinking within it. By a series of common-sense constructs they have pre-selected and pre-interpreted the world which they experience as the reality of their daily lives. It is those thought objects of theirs which determine their behavior by motivating it.The thought objects constructed by the social scientist, in order to grasp this social reality, have to be founded upon the thought objects constructed by the common-sense thinking of men, living their daily life within their social world.®The presentation of parallels between the actual

actions taken (social knowledge) and their corresponding written texts therefore led this study to the presentation of a methodology which could be employed within the social

® David Kirsh, "The Role of Philosophy in the Human Sciences," in Sollace Mitchell and Michael Rose (eds.). The Need for Interpretation. N.J.; Humanities Press, 1983, 20- 21 .

®Alfred Schütz, "Concept and Theory Formation in the Social Sciences," in Fred R. Dallmayr and Thomas A. McCarthy (eds.). Understanding and Social Inquiry. Notre Dame, Indiana: University of Notre Dame Press, 1977, 223; see also David Kirsh, loc. cit.

76sciences in order to provide the "exegesis of the objectivemeaning of texts."®

The methodological core of this study, advocating theuse of such theories, is based on Denzin's postulant that

human social phenomena can be validly and productively "ordered" and thereby understood when examined "micro-historically"— that is to say, as "joint acts" of "native persons" who are subjects in the process. These acts are linguistically generated, flowing from the actors' interactive conceptions of reality, meaning, and value. These acts can be approached from both the outside and the inside in a mutually confirming manner. This is possible through the medium of speech as it constitutes «the situation and as it publicly reveals the private states of mind of the actors. "Speech," in this sense, includes actions, both as the culmination of thoughts and perceptions and as themselves forms of speech which convey meaning not only concurrently but retrospectively across time.*®Furthermore, Kathleen Carley's conception of a

"constructuralism theory" governed the corresponding aspects of data collection.

Constructuralism is predicated upon the idea that social interaction and knowledge are interrelated, and that they evolved reflexively. The individual's cognitive

® Paul Ricoeur, "The Model of the Text: Meaningful Action Considered as a Text," in Fred R. Dallmayr, and Thomas A. McCarthy (eds), Understanding and Social Inquiry. 1977, 316-334.

*® Digna Diana Gonzalez, "The Venezuelan National Scholarship Foundation: Examining the Implementation of a Social-Educational Policy," Ph.D. dissertation. The Pennsylvania State University, 1987, 12. See also Norman K. Denzin, "The Logic of Naturalistic Inquiry" in Social Forces. 50/2 (December 1971): 166-182, and his The Research Act. 2nd Edition, New York: McGraw-Hill, 1978.

77structure (i.e., his knowledge base) is composed of vast amounts of information, most of which is acquired during interactions. As individuals acquire information, they elevate their social position and with whom they are likely to interact. This shift in social position, in turn, affects what information the individual is likely to acquire. The theory of macro-level constructuralism states that groups, organizations, countries, and behavior are all affected by micro-level changes.

Subsequently, there exist two consequences within these phenomena that became important for my study. First, proximal countries received similar treatments by the World Bank. Second, institutional mental models will change. Even as individuals acquire information and change their cognitive structures, so will organizations. Consequently, for example, over a period of time, institutional definitions of major concepts such as poverty will change.

In light of this, a method for coding and comparing institutional mental models of policy was adopted." This was done by coding verbal protocols as a "map" to represent the way an institution describes a decision, or policy, and the relationships between the various established concepts.

** Kathleen Carley, "An Approach for Relating Social Structure to Cognitive Structure," Journal of Mathematical Sociology. 12/2, (1986): 137-189; see also Kathleen Carley, "Knowledge Acquisition as a Social Phenomenon," Instructional Science. 14 (1986): 381-438. It should be noted that this study was strongly influenced by Carley's method.

78The information in the verbal written protocol, or social knowledge within this study, became a network of concepts. This network represents the World Bank's view of the structural adjustment policy and its various componential elements at a particular point in time for a particular country. These networks were then combined and contrasted to determine if 1) policy has changed over time; 2) if the policy varies as a function of its targeted regions of implementation; and 3) if the socio-political dimensions of adjustment changed over time. This was done by identifying the forces which contributed to the formation of social actions within The World Bank, which in turn determined the social realities as they were constructed, through an evaluation of the realities of language and social structure.

The Research ProgramGiven the theoretical foundation of this inquiry, the

research program was structured to provide a method in which the institutional and social (economic, structural, and political) reality was constructed over time.

A method based upon a textual analysis was used to explore a number of questions for the sake of coding the verbal written protocols to examine the various componential elements of the articulated policy statements. The explored questions were; how did the Bank diagnose issues involving adjustment?; what did the Bank prescribe as strategies for

79addressing evolving issues?; how did the Bank reflect upon the impact and evaluation of adjustment? Subsequently, major issues were also raised as the research evolved and the interpretation became more focused and received a stronger grounding in its linking of social structures to cognitive structures. *®

This process ultimately contributed to an understanding of the Bank's decision-making process by conducting a trend analysis of the World Bank's thinking processes and approach, as they related to adjustment lending policy over the past decade.

The method which emerged is an approach to information utilization and analysis in decision making which links social structures to cognitive structures. This approach is appealing, since it provides a conceptual structure which gives more meanings to facts — a socio-cultural framework - - rather a mathematical structure which often lacks contextual information.*®

The approach in this research also presents simplification and minimization of information: qualitative

*® Kathleen Carley, "An Approach for Relating Social Structure to Cognitive Structure," Journal of Mathematical Sociology 12/2 (1986): 187.

*® An application of a mathematical model for decision making can be found in the "belief function theory" developed by G. Shafer, especially in "Belief Functions with Parametric Models," a discussion provided in the Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series B, 44 (1982): 322-352.

80data that is messy and complex (complex in terms of quantity, size, and type) and of a technical nature by its coding of maps, but it offers adequate user interfaces that make it easier to interact with a variety of databases. The application of the proposed approach, although nontrivial, is straightforward. The computation in terms of data entry, editing, data management, and analysis were done on an IBM PC, using a standard 8088 coprocessor, with 640K RAM and a 20 megabyte hard disk. For a more extensive maneuvering of the information, a faster and larger computer was employed.

The Research Design A logical sequence of the research design within this

dissertation connected the data to the study's initial research objectives as they were stated in Chapter I.

The design consisted of collecting data, coding, entering, and editing data, and finally, an extensive data analysis and interpretation of the presented material.

Consequently, in order to capture the rich detail and broad patterns of the domain of the articulated policy and its various componential elements, a computer-assisted approach to analyze the content of the texts was adopted. This included the application of a frame-based technique to correlate social (geographical proximity) with cognitive (bank loan agreement) data at multiple points in time.

81The basic approach for this exploratory, interpretive

study*"* was examined through a textual analysis of the verbally written protocols, resulting in the generation of qualitative data, via a series of projected conceptual maps. The production of maps reflect the domain of World Bank structural adjustment policy and enabled the researcher to define areas in which policy-relevant inquiries warranted examination. Having adopted a map of the phenomena, each elemental component could then be viewed in a dynamic fashion. Through a phenomenological, hermeneutical, and methodological tradition, this research method aided the present researcher to perceive, interpret, and construct the necessary terms to bring together a structuring of the social phenomena. The construction of the apparent content is crucial, since it highlights the gap between rhetoric and action; in other words, theory and reality.

Using the Frame Search Technology software,*® an implicit institutional mental model was extracted and coded

*"* For a more persuasive and comprehensive philosophical account of the interpretive approach and its applications in social theory, see Nicholas Greenwood Onuf,"Constructivism," in World of Our Making; Rules and Rule in Social Theorv and International Relations. Columbia, S.C.: University of South Carolina Press, 1989, 35-65.

*® The frame-based techniques used were SETUP (getting started), CODEF (coding text), and COMPRA (contrasting and combining text) programs. This software facilitated the researcher in the coding of texts as maps (a formal representation of a mental model), and then in the manipulation and analysis of these maps.

82from each of the examined reports. These models were then statistically examined.*®

The methodology employed was a very general set of approaches for coding textual data. It has been used in a variety of contexts. Once the maps were coded, one could compare the contexts of a given country's map with various factors, such as effectiveness, future performance, and many other parameters, in order to determine which elements within the content of the original Bank policy were correlated within each factor.

In summary, the methodology was based on an interpretive approach, which demonstrated especially if the Bank's policy had changed over time; if the policy differed as it related to various regions; and finally, if the Bank's understanding of the socio-political dimensions of adjustment had changed over time. The assessment was based upon what was done through an analysis of both the cognitive and the tabular maps, which involved the observation and analysis of the extracted concepts as they were embedded in the acquired social knowledge within the examined texts.The resulting conclusions were based upon the social expert's knowledge, and their understanding of how each

*® A quantitative technique later provided data on individual steps within the decision-making process, i.e., the coherence within policy statements, actions throughout the analyzed text, and the determination of rigidity within the policy.

83concept reflected upon the domain of the Bank's philosophical terrain.*’

The Source Documentation An initial bibliographic search of World Bank policy

documentation was performed, inclusive for the years 1980 through 1989, to trace the historical background of the Bank's operations. Databases employed for this phase of the research included the Online Computer Librarv Center (OCLC), based in Dublin, Ohio, which includes the holdings of the Library of Congress, the British Library, and the JOLIS automated library subsystem of the Joint-Bank Fund Library of the World Bank; a search was also performed within the Magazine Index. Newspaper Index, the Public Affairs Information Service, and the Economic Literature Index available on the DIALOG information subsystem.

Print sources consulted included the Social Sciences Citation Index, the Social Sciences Index. Books in Print, and the Cumulative Book Index.

*’ To view such a domain as it is common in phenomenological inquiries, it was necessary to look closely at the conceptual maps, and to "see" the phenomena rather than to "think" about them. Seeing a "motion in silence," which enables one to see the experience in one's consciousness, "since all experience is first-person experience by a knowing subject. I, as such a subject . . . have a chance to examine my experience directly." This excerpt is from a more detailed analysis of phenomenological, sociological practice in George Psathas, Phenomenological Socioloav; Issues and Applications. New York: John Wiley, 1973, 13-14.

84An intensive document search was also performed within

the World Bank's Internal Document Unit, using their internal information database. This search was narrowed into a list of all of the President's Reports and the Bank's Audit Reports for African, Latin American, and Caribbean countries. A total of 65 documents were selected. A compendium of these documents appears in Appendix 1. Of these documents, 40 pertained to 24 African countries, and 25 to 10 Latin American and Caribbean countries.

Summary of the Document Types Presented The following is a general outline of the document

types coded. An intensive breakdown of every loan document and its annotated description is presented in Appendix I of this dissertation.

Reports and Recommendations of the PresidentThese are selected, restricted proposals, made

available to the present researcher by the Internal Documents Unit of the World Bank. They form the bulk of the coded documents within this analysis. Reports and Recommendations of the President consist of a summary of the proposed loan, definitions of the Bank, country terminology and acronyms, a summary of the country's economic history and present status, the plan of the loan implementation and its disbursement, and various appendices of related bank country operations and legal documents.

85Memorandums and Recommendations of the President

Following the same general format as the Reports and Recommendations of the President, Memorandums and Recommendations of the President are usually presented to supplement proposals already submitted after "missions for the Structural Adjustment Program" have visited country regions and have had a chance to reflect upon the previously digested economic memorandums and reports.*®

Staff Appraisal ReportsStaff Appraisal Reports presented for analysis were

produced by the Public Sector Management Division of the World Bank. As their name suggests, these reports are concerned with the evaluation of participating countries and their representative governments, and do not directly address actual loan amounts or their affected programs; they were used only to evaluate the Bank's performance and the level in which it corresponded with their stated objectives. Staff Appraisal Reports were not used for the computer portion or any of the graphical representations of the analyzed data, but served as a textual supplement, since they contain a multitude of data on proposed and implemented Bank programs to measure socio-economic developments.*®

*® See, for example. World Bank Report No. P-5079-CM for Cameroon, May 16, 1989, 1.

*® A good example is World Bank Report No. 6693-GH for Ghana, March 20, 1987, 17.

86Program Performance Audit Reports

The Program Performance Audit Reports analyzed in this dissertation are valuable documents, for they directly show the relationship between the Bank's actions and proposed programs. Only by engaging in a direct comparison with the Program Performance Audit Reports can the entire validity of this dissertation be measured against the methods of analysis employed by the World Bank.

Program Performance Audit Reports usually consist of a summary of the implemented loan's history, including what actually took place after the loan tranches were received by a participating country. It is also interesting to note how the Bank used the terms Report and Memorandum interchangeably in some of their internal documents.’® In the Program Performance Audit Reports, the researcher can evaluate how the Bank reacts to country concerns and problems, as they were stated in the documents presented for analysis.

Data Selection and Analvsis Parameters Examined

Some of the policy elements examined include the Bank's thinking processes in their formulation, implementation and evaluation of structural adjustment programs to improve each country's educational standards.

See, for example, the table of contents of World Bank Report No. 5155 for Bolivia, June 25, 1984.

87the flow of core international transactions, and the management of the public sector.

This examination also traced the influence of industrial and trade policies on the success of implemented loans; trends involving both strategies and completed projects were compared and contrasted.

Due to the availability of both proposal and appraisal reports for these regions, the Bank's transactions were observed by comparing their structural adjustment activities in selected countries within Africa, Latin America, and the Caribbean.

This study concerns itself with the measurement of development issues, policy implementation, and operations evaluation as they related to concepts: social, how bank adjustment measures affect the concerns of the nonbureaucratic elite general population; employment, good nutrition and health facilities, population control, poverty, and urban unrest as it was created by a variety of factors; political, how strategies implemented by the Bank affected the day-to-day operations of a country's civil service, as measured by the effects of Bank adjustment measures on civil service employment and efficiency.

The political elements examined also included the amount of government stability involved in policy implementation and in their inherent social infrastructure.

88The economic aspects of Bank adjustment policy

included any qualities, strategies or effects which could be measured using financial terminology, e.g., the exchange rate, balance-of-payments, investment levels, and pricing

\ procedures; and structural elements, related to anindividual sector, such as industry, agriculture, or mining.

Each concept was cataloged under three different levels of Bank adjustment phases: the design stage, where individual country histories were categorized by the four elements above as issues; the implementation stage, categorized by the four elements as strategies, which were actual policy suggestions and recommendations as carried out by the country government, private sector, and the World Bank; and the final stage, measuring the evaluation process, listed under the same categories described above as impacts, where the benefits and risks described by the Bank President in his Reports and Recommendations for structural adjustment loans were weighed against and contrasted with the Program Performance Audit Reports for structural adjustment loans submitted by the Bank's Operations Evaluation Unit.

Analytical Tools: Coding Data as MapsTo extract concepts from the verbal protocols

(documents), the following procedures were adopted. Based on theoretical considerations, first, three categories of general concepts were extracted: design, implementation, and evaluation. Having used design, implementation and

89evaluation as conceptual categories, they were subdivided into economic, political, social and structural components, and then into issues, strategies, and impacts for each respective component. This was done so that the various employed strategies could be independently examined. This general scheme was adopted each time a text was presented for coding.

Each document was subsequently read and sections were eliminated which did not apply to the examined policy variables. Each text was then reexamined, and a list of the general concepts were extracted to compare the social vocabularies which were produced. There was also a process of elimination, where the repeated concepts were deleted, and the number of occurrences was maintained, as the list of nodes (concepts) is updated by the researcher and the data is extracted through "postelimination updating". This list eventually is formatted into a manual for the novice (coder), and an instrument for the researcher to control the variables. Thereby, this procedure produced a set of concepts that either occurred explicitly in the protocol or was inferred from it. Only those concepts that were related to the detection and tracing of the Bank's thinking processes in terms of a diagnosis of the issues, a prescription of the strategies, and finally, a reflection on the impact and evaluation of their programs were extracted. By reducing and combining the generated concepts, a

90representation which constituted the Bank's organizational approach and attitudes provided the basis for the decision and policy-making apparatus of The World Bank which was revealed.

Furthermore, for the sake of evaluating coherence within the Bank's socio-political analysis, measures of coherence within the policy related concepts were created, and a rating system was established to determine the levels of concepts within the reviewed texts, as they were measured over time.

To present the institutional approach and the mental model through the projection of a series of cognitive maps, it was necessary to reduce the nearly 3000 extracted concepts (occurrences) - which were coded as descriptive maps for each of the texts and served as a basic frame, or raw data. To do so, I then examined the content of these concepts to look for common themes, and came up with a reduced set of 22 concepts, to observe what was common between them. In coding maps, it is noted here that a number of measures may have overlapped. For the sake of specificity and clarity, judgements had to be made to decide into which category a measure should be placed. I coded all of the documents, each having its own map, using the Frame Search Technology software. Figure 4 in this chapter presents the complete set of the reduced list.

91Software Application

Using the Frame Search Technology software, the implicit institutional policy statements in each examined text were explicated and coded. The frame-based technique used involved a number of steps: the first step was to code documents as maps as the SETUP or start up process, which was only performed once. The SETUP program produced a file which describes how I designed my data analysis, how many concepts I used, and a master plan for how I wanted to code concepts employed by CODEE. This SETUP file controlled questions that the CODEF program needed for the analysis.

Second was the CODEF process, which assisted me in coding the World Bank's institutional mental model (the bank's loan agreements and its evaluation reports), by asking a series of questions about what concepts were used in the text, and if any relationships existed between these concepts. The CODEF program checked to see if each requested concept was included within the vocabulary, and then asked on a pair-by-pair basis if a relationship existed between the concepts. The output was a "*.num" file, a data file containing knowledge on the policy as it related to a particular country within a given time frame. The result consisted of a manifestation of the implicit knowledge, which was later projected into descriptive maps or a set of raw data. Then, the knowledge which manifested itself within the descriptive maps elicited 22 major concepts, and

92

generated a series of cognitive maps’* which resulted from the software programs known as COMPRA and SCOMPRA (which compared sets of two maps at a time). Both maps were reflections of the bank's institutional biases as they exhibited themselves over time.” The focus was on the concepts which were shared across maps, and also whether those concepts related to each other in the same way within different maps.

The frame-based software that was initially employed tested the practicality of computer-assisted techniques for the purposes of coding "written verbal protocol." The research later evolved in a different direction, as the process of trial and error continued. Lastly, this process of trial and error provided evidence concerning the importance of coding the textual data which, in turn, became an art unto itself. In other words, data selection and recording — two requirements of statistical data management — contributed to the creation of a new set of variables.

’* Later, it was discovered that there were limits within the number of concepts that could be coded into cognitive maps. Since there was a limitless amount of data that could be extracted, and the intent was to develop a tool to deal with a large body of data, *.num files were reformatted into a set of so-called descriptive maps, which were then statistically examined. Descriptive maps were also transformed into tabular and cognitive maps.

” Appendix II gives a clear picture of this process; see also Kathleen Carley, American Sociological Society Didactic Seminar Computer Analvsis of Qualitative Data. Overhead, 1989.

93The data set, in turn, became a file of records which were stored on computer disks.

Analytical Techniques Having projected the examined documents into coded

maps, the present researcher was able to organize a series of complex and messy data units into more organized and measurable elements through the projected tabular and cognitive maps. Since these maps were transformed into various tables and diagrams and are based on the raw data or descriptive maps, the following section will describe the characteristics and importance of each map, how the data was utilized, and how it came to be interpreted.

Descriptive Maps Having used a phenomenological, hermeneutical

approach, the written verbal protocol was coded and projected into descriptive maps or raw data which consisted of a set of concepts - two "meanings" and their relation” - an object plus an adjective or an imperative to that object (some concepts were phrased in an inactive mode).

Concepts together present an integrated picture - an inference of the perceived reality, reflecting institutional thinking and feelings, and consequently, a mental model or

” The extracted concepts presented here are based on Carley's method of isolating facts, yet the concepts are not used as in Carley's definition; See also Kathleen Carley, "Formalizing the Social Expert's Knowledge," Sociological Methods and Research 17/2 (November 1988): 169.

94"social reality" of the World Bank was created (Figure 2). Each map was shaded in different colorings, which served as a reflection of the varying degrees of intensity within the treatment of a particular issue.

Each concept has two properties: an object and a shade. An object is a statement of policy or an implemented actions statement. A shade is an expression of attitude which manifests itself in an imperative statement and its levels of implemented action. They, in turn, reflect the urgency inherent in the statements presented.^ This, then, becomes a descriptive portrait of the Bank's thinking, or mental model.

^ The researcher viewed the imperatives and made general observations, based on the frequency of the apparent imperatives, to detect the implied emotions within each examined document. Furthermore, in order to ensure that the policy objects were also traced as a relation of the graphical representations to their corresponding "social reality," the author constructed a "social reality" based on the "social facts" that were extracted from the texts, and then compared them with the Bank's "social world." The result was an overall reflection and analysis of the data observed. Additional studies could be conducted to measure the frequency of imperatives within the examined documents, to trace and quantify organizational emotions inherent within each text, and to measure them against outside variables that influence internal, short-term policy decisions.

95

Jtm aie» 1087 RRP

DESIGN

Social Ih u clarfo poverty population high life expectancy ■atUfaetory public enterprise!

Political Issue bloated public sector external sector vulnerability

Structural Issue tourism level acceptable

Economic Issue open based economy external account imbalance

Jamaica 1089 PPA R

DESIGN

Social Issuehigh unemployment levels massive skilled migration capital flight problem low capacity utilisation

Political Issue bloated civil service lack of imports

Structural Issue poor tourism trade lack of exportssevere agricultural difficulties negative economic growth

Economic Issuehigh external d eb t arrearsforeign exchange shortageshigh inflation rates unsustainable fiscal deflelts

IMPLEMENTATION

Social Strategy provide poverty programs decrease government services mitigate social costs review food subsidies

Political S trategy reduce government indebtedoese national support necessary Improve export performance

Structural S trategy improve industry performance improve tariff structure provide export Incentives finance raw material imports strengthen financial sector

Economic Strategy Remove private investment bias improve equity investments eliminate m arket distortions remove trade distortions

IMPLEMENTATION

Social Strategy reduced the public sector increase emigration improve public enterprises

Political Strategyimprove government Interventionsrenaove import restrictions

S tructural Strategy further tarifi improvements further organisational improvements restrict import access stabilise the economy

Economic Strategy restore financial viability reduce the government deficit provide official capital inflows provide floating exchange rate accelerate divestment rate improve incentive system

EVALUATION

Social Impact some risks beyond control risks are acceptable income distribution affected government services affected administrative capacity uncertain

EVALUATION

Social Impact civil service reduced unemployntent worsened poverty worsened health eervices cu t government distorted prices

Political Impact political commitment necessary government displayed wUlingnesstrade balance uncertain

Structural Im pact tariff change uncertain im port/export restriction remov^adverse external effects

Economic Im pact investor confidence necessary economic recovery dependent

Political Impactgovernment allocation towards poor special groups benefitted

Structural Impact tourism growth improved non*trade exports improved agricultural problems continued economy still uncertain

Economic Impact per capita consumption decreased tax system was simplified exchange rate improve external financing reliant

FIGURE 2A SAMPLE DESCRIPTIVE MAP FOR EXAMINED

JAMAICAN LOAN DOCUMENTS

96Cognitive Maps

Having used a network approach, through the use of Frame Technology, the written verbal protocol - a large, highly technical body of literature (descriptive maps) - was coded and analyzed simultaneously and collectively. The result was that the qualitative data generated into the cognitive maps formed a representation of The World Bank's overall mental model of how the policy had been formulated concerning structural adjustment. A statistically acceptable number of maps were created, for the sake of testing the application of this new method for coding and analyzing data, to support the foundation of this exploratory study. The cognitive maps represent all of the aspects of the analysis, namely the social, political, structural and economic dimensions.

Each cognitive map consists of nodes or concepts which are connected by lines that indicate the relationships established between concepts, i.e., articulated, segmented or isolated; in other words, they represent levels of complexity. Each concept is a concentration of isolated facts. The facts represent a knowledge base, or the data extracted. Concepts presented together represent the institutional mental model, or, a map.

Each map can be perceived and visualized as a representation of thinking processes possessing various degrees of complexity at a given time. Maps together

97represent a frame, or a focused network of concepts, consisting of perceived and structured facts.

In this application, concepts represent a broad set of social meanings common and accepted by a social unit. The concepts given may be modified and provided with social definitions, to explain the various social phenomena subject to examination. What is interesting is the process of formulating the network; i.e., the isolation, reduction, and condensation of the acquired social knowledge, and the reduction of the data into focused concepts.

The concepts may or may not have a "social definition" or a "relative definition." If they do not have definitions, then they are understood from their relationships within the network. Otherwise, as they are presented in the descriptive maps, the concepts may be coded and defined as standing alone, without being within a network or any other relationship.

In a given network, the nodes are connected but are not necessarily of a cause-and-effect relationship. Having used CODEF to create the social knowledge base, and having taken into account the limits posed in terms of the number of extracted concepts (approximately 200), the following procedure was adopted to reduce the available data into a workable number.

The nodes are collapsed forms of the 3000 concepts or occurrences in the reviewed texts. In other words, 3000

98occurrences were reduced into 22 concepts (see figure 3). Figure 4 provides a list” of the general concepts which were coded within the documents.” Each concept was coded either as a liability or as an asset. Liabilities reflected upon the concepts that denoted social, political, economic or structural costs, e.g., opposition, delay, dependence, reallocation, and so on. Conversely, any concepts which called for necessary actions or that recognized and evaluated implications were coded as assets. "Assets" reflect positive implications - reform, adjustment, alleviation, assessment, change, and many other aspects within the examined documents.

” Concepts which appeared within the extracted data for both Africa and Latin America examined adjustment loan documents and included the desirability and implementation of measures to increase the quality and quantity of agriculture and food levels (AF asset); measures taken and desired to improve the country central governments (CG asset); policies inherently damaging, and those as a result of adjustment measures undertaken which were harmful to the participating country governments (CG liability); inherent policies and those as a result of Bank actions which improved the flow of core international transactions (CIT asset); measures taken by the Bank and those implemented by the country governments which improved the existing growth and structure of production (GSP asset); policies inherently damaging within country governments or undertaken by the Bank which were harmful to the previous actions (GSP liability); policies which were both advantageous and harmful to the human resources of country governments (HR asset and HR liability); and financial programs which both helped and harmed existing country economic structures (financial asset and financial liability).

” Certain terms were extracted from the Bank literature but were used only in the specific definitions given here. See The World Bank, World Development Report 1990; Poverty. 170, 244-257.

99

AF a sse t

CE liability # ,

# CG a sse tCG liability

CIT a sse tCIT liability #

GCI a sset

• G S P assetG SP liability • '

HN asset

# HR asset

• financial a sse tfinancial liability #

FIGURE 3

A SAMPLE COGNITIVE MAP FOR AN EXAMINED JAMAICAN LOANDOCUMENT: 1983

100Concept Description

AF Agriculture and FoodCE Commercial EnergyCG Central GovernmentCIT Core International TransactionGCI Growth of Consumption and

InvestmentGSP Growth and Structure of

ProductionHN Health and NutritionHR Human Resources as well as

Poverty Related Concepts RD Rural DevelopmentUD Urban DevelopmentFinancial Economic Transactions, Aid, and

Financial Sector Activity

FIGURE 4CONCEPTS COVERED IN RRPS AND PPARS FOR AFRICA, LATIN AMERICA

AND THE CARIBBEAN

Tabular MapsThe descriptive maps utilized were coded further for

the purposes of reducing data into tabular maps. In interpreting the maps, social and political issues were centralized within the periphery of the Bank's actions, and the social and political concepts were perceived within the emanations of the other coded dimensions, i.e., structural and economic. This was done to measure the coherence within the socio-political concepts in the World Bank's thinking processes; in other words, their understanding of the social and political dimensions of adjustment. The measurement consisted of reducing the concepts (occurrences) in the

101descriptive maps into tabular maps for the purposes of measuring coherence within the socio-political thinking processes and to assign them numerical rankings. The algorithm for this study was created through a measurement of the resulting proportions. Proportions consisted of the number of occurrences divided by the number of examined texts for a given time period. The proportions were then combined and divided to create the resulting scores. The scores were then ranked, with ranking being constituted by an impact factor, which demonstrated the amount of emphasis placed upon the various componential elements of a given policy. A ranking of 1 was given to the elements which possessed the largest number of occurrences. The rating system employed here assessed the quality of coherence within the Bank's analyses under each designated category. Not all of the examined documents contained sections with social or political analyses. Therefore, each text was subjected to this ranking system for any inference or reflection on social or political elements which could be found within an entire document. The proportion of issues, strategies, and impacts measured across regions over time were then contrasted and compared.

This study of the Bank's understanding of the social and political dimensions of adjustment was conducted within several categories: 1) concepts related to the Bank'sdiagnosis of social problems and the factors which were

102affected by the general population; 2) concepts related to the Bank's prescription of social strategies in terms of employment, good nutrition, health facilities, population control, poverty, and urban unrest; 3) concepts related to the Bank's reflection on the social implications of economic reform programs; 4) concepts related to the Bank's diagnosis of political problems in the country's political environment and the factors affecting societal and governmental structures; 5) concepts related to the Bank's adoption of political strategies in terms of achieving a government consensus, popular consensus, government stability, and the government's capacity to absorb structural changes and the amount of their involvement in the process of reform; and 6) concepts related to the Bank's reflection on the political consequences of economic reform programs. Figure 5 presents a sample tabular map.

103

Political Issue 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89

Poor government management

2/2 1/2 - 2/4 - 3/6 1/6 4/7 2/6 2/5

Bloated public sector - - - - - 1/6 2/6 1/7 1/6 1/5Stable political system - 1/2 - 1/4 1/1 1/6 1/6 1/7 3/6 1/5Demand for govt

welfare system1/2 - - - - - - - -

Govt control of eco­nomic activities

1/2 - - - - - - - -

Govt encouraged pri­vate sector initia­tive

1/2 1/6 1/6 2/5

Development of private sector

- - - 2/4 - 2/6 1/6 3/7 1/6 -

Good racial, reli­gious cultural relations

1/4

Slow govt implemen­tation

- - - 1/4 - 1/6 - - 1/6 -

Short-term crisis management

- - - - - 1/6 - - - -

Well-trained dedi­cated civil servants

- - “ - - 1/6 - - - -

Reluctant to take unpopular measures

- - - - - 1/6 - - - -

Rural groups influence political decisions

- - - - “ 1/6 - - 1/6 -

Political constraints not well considered

- - - “ “ 1/6 - - 1/6 -

Political change hurt program

- - - - - 1/6 - - 1/6 1/5

Excessive state inter­vention

- - - - - - 1/6 - - -

Lack/direct govt par­ticipation

- - - - - - 1/6 - 2/6 2/5

Growing defense burden

- - - “ - - - - 1/6 -

Fragmented govt structure

- - “ - - - - - 1/6 -

Favorable climatic condition

- - - - - - - 1/6 1/5

Lagging political will - - - - - - - - - 1/5

FIGURE 6

PROPORTIONS OF OCCURENCES COVERED IN RRPS AND PPARS FOR AFRICA: POLITICAL ISSUES; YEARS COVERED, 1980-1989

104In sum, this chapter examined the analytical

techniques, and the following chapter tests the utilization of these techniques, to examine a) if Bank policy has changed over time; b) if policy varied as a function of its targeted regions of implementation; and c) if the socio­political dimensions of adjustment have changed over time. The following analysis is based upon the synthesis of the two implied techniques: the analysis of tabular maps, to examine the coherence of the articulated socio-political policy statements, and the analysis of cognitive maps, which serve to illustrate the Bank's overall institutional approach or adopted mental model towards the regions of Africa, Latin America, and the Caribbean.

CHAPTER IV DATA ANALYSIS

Chapter Four examines the various componential elements of the World Bank's stated policy for the purpose of evaluating the coherence of the overall socio-political analysis within the general framework, and to present an institutional approach or mental model of the Bank towards selected developing nations within a given continent.

This was accomplished through a temporal analysis of 21 President's Reports and Recommendations and Audit Reports of the World Bank for 10 Latin American and Caribbean countries, as well as 44 documents of a similar nature for 24 African countries.

The following generated tabular and cognitive models are based upon the perception of the meaning of organizational knowledge as it was presented within the maps and frames. Characteristics of this frame include the ability

to facilitate future communication, and alter the pattern of interaction. . .Cognitive development across the members of the social unit leads to the development of the social knowledge base; i.e., as the individuals' frames coevolve social knowledge evolves.. .the social knowledge base, that collection of facts which everyone knows, can be thought of as a standardized system of implicit signals and coding

105

106rules, an articulation of the social culture.The general findings, therefore, are predicated on a

synthesis of two implied techniques: the tabular mapanalysis, which when conducted was to examine if the socio­political dimensions of adjustment have changed over time; and the cognitive map analysis, utilized to demonstrate if Bank policy has evolved during the past decade and if policy varied as a function of its targeted regions of implementation.

Tabular Map ResultsTo evaluate the coherence of the Bank's socio­

political analysis within their formal development planning and implementation as it was reflected in the Bank's formal documents during the past ten years, the tabular maps were generated. These also, in turn, reflected upon the Bank's understanding of the socio-political dimensions of adjustment.2 An outline for measuring the coherence within

’ Kathleen Carley, "An Approach for Relating Social Structure to Cognitive Structure," Journal of Mathematical Socioloav 12/2 (1986): 145.

To produce these maps, the Bank's understanding of the structure of the economy and the various sources of disequilibrium first deserve a brief explanation, since they are embedded in the descriptive maps with their economic and structural issues, strategies, and impacts. Furthermore, such a schematic framework helped the researcher to conceptualize the socio-political dimensions of the Bank's thinking processes in terms of their design, implementation, and evaluation of structural adjustment policy which will follow. Concepts such as their neglect of agriculture, the existence of dualism in agriculture, price distortions, transportation costs, infrastructure, public enterprises,

107the socio-political concepts displayed within the World Bank's thinking processes is included in Appendix IV.

Several categories were adopted to examine their modus operandi. These categories were related to the ways in which the Bank conceptualizes, diagnoses, prescribes, and remedies whatever is needed to be taken into the design, implementation and evaluation of their socio-political analysis of adjustment lending policy; in other words, their understanding of the social and political dimensions of adjustment.

Subsequently, the data was extracted, measured, and analyzed to gauge the coherence of the Bank's thinking processes within the social and political concepts in the examined texts, including changes which transpired within

the role of the state (e.g., fiscal and monetary policy), exports and export concentration ratios, the structure of the labor market (e.g., the duality between the urban and rural or formal and informal) and the structure of product and factor markets (e.g., the existence of parallel markets; rationing) seem to be the common denominators among the structural and economic concepts that were used in their design stage of macroeconomic adjustment policy. Among the concepts used for the sake of implementation as it was designed here under strategy are: the restoration of a sustainable current account balance, the desire to reach a manageable level of debt, the controlling of inflation, the acceleration of economic growth, and the overall improvement of the quality of human welfare and resources. Moreover, the Bank evaluated implemented programs based on its examination of data on reducing the aggregate demand, such as consumption, investment, government spending, and increasing aggregate output, including an increase in the efficient use of resources and the raising of capital stock. Trade policies, domestic resource mobilization, and increased efficiency in the use of resources are three major policy instruments adopted by the Bank.

108the proportions of the occurrences over time. This analysis was done for each region separately and is followed by a general discussion of the coherence of the Bank's socio­political analysis across regions.

This section begins with an analysis of the Bank's understanding of the social dimensions, later addressing their political dimensions, and is followed by a summary of interpretations.

Towards Understanding the Social Dimensions Diagnosis of the Social Problems

The Bank's interest in poverty-related issues as it was reflected in the examined internal documents peaked in 1987, and remained at a high level of interest throughout the 1980s, with various degrees of emphasis.

In Latin America, for example, poverty (score = 5.3) arose as the bank's second most emphasized issue (Tables 1 and 2). At first it was awarded less emphasis as an issue, but increased towards the latter half of the measured adjustment period, which experienced a large concentration of emphasis.

Unlike the bank's emphasis upon socio-economic

This exploratory study aims to present a proportional breakdown of the extracted policy charts as an accurate approximation of the policy approaches taken by the Bank. This approach was and will continue to be a constant subject of debate (See also Kathleen Carley, "An Approach for Relating Social Structure to Cognitive Structure," 187-188). Additional studies will be necessary to gauge the phenomena observed within this dissertation.

109problems in Latin America, the impact factor measuring poverty in Africa (Tables 3 and 4) received the highest rating, and also received attention as an issue.

TABLE 1

PROPORTIONS OF OCCURRENCES COVERED IN RRPS AND PPARS FOR LATIN AMERICA: SOCIAL ISSUES; YEARS COVERED, 1980-1989

Social Issue 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89

Poverty 1/1 1/1 2/2 1/3 1/3 2/4 1/2 2/3Population growth 1/1 1/1 1/2 1/2 - 2/4 - 1/3Health/nutrition 1/1 1/1 - 1/2 - - 2/3 2/4 1/2 -

Life expectancy/ 1/1 - - - - 8/4 1/2 1/3infant mortality

Unemployment/ 1/1 1/1 1/2 2/2 2/3 2/3 1/4 - 2/3worker dislocation

Skilled/educated - - 1/1 1/2 - 1/3 2/4 1/2 2/3population

Source: The source for all of the data represented in the following tables were the bank documents in Appendix I.Ratio = number of occurrences over the number of documents presented.

TABLE 2

IMPACT FACTOR SCORES FOR LATIN AMERICA: SOCIAL ISSUES

Social Issue Score Rank*

Unemployment/worker dislocation 10.5 1Poverty 5.3 2Health/Nutrition 4.1 3Population growth 3.8 4Skilled/educated population 3.4 5Life expect/infant mortality 2.5 6

* Rank was determined by dividing the occurrences by the totals for the entire region examined.

110since the inception of this policy, this trend has risen marginally and increased sharply.

Population growth and family planning maintained a similar pattern across Latin America and Africa when viewed as an entire entity, although this issue experienced a significant drop in its orientation during the closing years of the 1980s.

Institutional shortfalls in Latin America such as inadequate health and nutritional facilities (Table 2, score = 4.1) showed more activity when compared with the Bank's emphasis on population growth (score = 3.8). Table 1 also examined the evolution of their thinking towards recognizing the need for better health and nutritional facilities. This need displayed a small amount of emphasis during the early years, a minimum amount of treatment during its mid-life, and the highest amount of Bank attention between the final years analyzed. Health and nutritional facilities in Africa received a large amount of emphasis during the later loan period (Table 3). Ironically, the Bank's concern with health and nutritional deficiencies was not consistently addressed in the examined documents.*

* The Bank's guiding principle regarding the evaluation of these factors is important to cite: " . . . there are many different factors that may affect food intake, and nutritional status and it may be difficult to detect the effect of specific macro policy changes;" in the World Bank, Analvsis Plans for Understanding the Social Dimensions of Adjustment. Washington D.C.: The World Bank, Report no. 8691-AFR, 1990, 129.

IllTABLES

PROPORTIONS OF OCCURRENCES COVERED IN RRPS AND PPARS FOR AFRICA: SOCIAL ISSUES; YEARS COVERED, 1980-1989

Social Issue 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89

Poverty 2/2 1/2 1/1 4/4 1/1 4 /6 4/6 5/7 4/6 4/5Population 2/2 1/2 1/1 2/4 1/1 3 /6 5/6 4/7 2/6 2/5growth

Health/nutri - 1/2 - 2/4 - - 2/6 1/7 1/6 2/5Life expect/ - - - - - 2 /6 1/6 - 2/6 1/5infant mortality

Unemploy/ 1/2 - - - - - 1/6 1/7 1/6 2/5worker dislocation

Skilied/ - - - 1/4 - - - - - -educated population

Rural labor 1/2 - - - - - 1/6 1/7 1/6 -pushed into urban/migration

Demand for 1/2 1/4 1/6 1/6 1/6 1/5social services

Poor educ. - 2/2 1/1 1/4 - 2 /6 - - - -system

Urban/rural - - - - - - 1/6 1/7 - -disparities

Illiteracy - - - - - - 2/6 1/7 1/6 1/5Scarcity of - - - - - 1/6 - - 1/6 -manpower

Rural dev. 1/4 2/6 2/6 2/6 2/5

TABLE 4

IMPACT FACTOR SCORES FOR OCCURRENCES COVERED IN RRPS, AND PPARS FOR AFRICA: SOCIAL ISSUES

Social Issue Score Rank

Poverty 8.0 1Population growth 6.6 2Poor educational system 2.5 3Health/nutrition 2.0 4Unemployment/ worker dislocation 1.8 5Rural development 1.6 6Demand for social services 1.4 7Life expectancy/infant mortality 1.0 8Rural labor pushed into urban/migration .9 9Illiteracy .8 10Scarcity of manpower .3 11Urban/rural disparities .3 12Skilled/ educated population .2 IS

112The Bank exhibited a sporadic interest in the

education of country residents and erasing the disparities between the skilled and unskilled within a given population. Education, in Latin America, for example received a rating of 6, the lowest possible score, since the level of educational achievement within the region was at an acceptable level (Table 2 ) Institutional deficiencies such as poor educational systems, in Africa, for example were ranked 3 and 4 respectively (Table 4), with a large amount of activity in their mental model towards the issue of better educational systems during the initial loan period. However, the need for a skilled and educated population (.2), illiteracy (.8), and scarcity of manpower (.3) as concepts were observed as lower in priority, with rankings of 13, 10, and 11 respectively (Table 4). Of these three mentioned occurrences, illiteracy received the greatest amount of emphasis during the later years, and no

® This was quite evident in the case of Jamaica. The examined reports commented that Jamaica possessed a highly educated population with various skills and talents; by the time of the third structural adjustment loan in 1984, the Bank's emphasis was more on country government mismanagement than on skilled manpower. Further, skilled manpower and a proximity to the North American market played an important role in understanding the social aspects of Jamaica's adjustment activity during the years 1982-1984. Unemployment remained high, and Jamaica experienced problems within its management and in its efforts to control poverty. In its 1985 appraisal report, the Bank also mentioned high levels of workers fleeing from within the country, unemployment, and the poor performance of the government. The Bank's proposed loan for 1987 outlined the severe problem of poverty, and ironically, gave the Jamaican government a satisfactory rating.

113noticeable occurrences before the middle of the decade. The demand for skilled and educated populations received little attention from the Bank during the later loan period, yet some activities measuring the occurrences of a scarcity of manpower Were described. Other social concerns expressed in late structural adjustment loan documents included the eradication of illiteracy within large portions of populations, rural development, and a popular demand for social services.

Tables 1 and 2 include the diagnosis of the social problems in Latin America and the factors affecting the general population or social institutions, with constraints such as unemployment (score = 10.5) with a high concentration of activity, which were displayed during early experiments in their design phase: these occurrences received less emphasis towards the end of the decade. In Africa, both unemployment (Table 4, score = 1.8) and life expectancy (1.0) became concepts of substance during the later period, with little and no perceived occurrences during the earlier lending phase.

These more advanced developments within the Bank's orientation towards social matters tended to rear their head in the later outlines of country issues, as adjustment activity within Latin America and Africa was nearing the end of the decade.

Concepts related to urban and rural development were

114addressed as general issues and received more attention near the end of the decade. Unlike their thinking patterns in regard to their policy in Latin America, urban and rural disparities were mentioned, but received a low ranking of 12 in their document's designated impact factor score (.3) which occurred during the end of the decade. Furthermore, migration from rural to urban (.9) and rural development(1.6) subsequently received attention throughout the middle half of the decade.

Prescription of the Social StrategiesThe heaviest area of the Bank activity in addressing

social concerns was in the area of unemployment reduction, again, with efforts made by their analysts peaking during the 1987 period.

For instance, the Bank's approach employed in their prescribed social strategies in Latin America to propose offsetting measures to assist the vulnerable country groups was observed. In other words, more occurrences were perceived and ranked higher that were related to reduce unemployment (score = 6.5) which appeared consistently throughout the early years, especially during the second half of the decade (Tables 5 and 6) in particular. However, the improvement of worker training (score = 1.3) received a low ranking of 8 and appeared sporadically during the early years. Like Latin America, reducing unemployment in Africa was rated the highest, with an overall rating of 3.1 (Table

115TABLE 5

PROPORTIONS OF OCCURRENCES COVERED IN RRPS AND PPARS FOR LATIN AMERICA: SOCIAL STRATEGY; YEARS COVERED, 1980-1989

Social Strategy 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89

Provide social 1/1 1/2 1/2 1/3 2/3 2/4 2/2 1/3services

Improve soc - - 1/2 - - 2/3 1/4 2/2 1/3sector efforts

Mitigate soc - - - - - - 1/4 1/2 1/3cost

Provide poverty - - - - - - 1/4 - 1/9programs

Reduce unemploy - 1/1 1/1 2/2 2/2 2/3 1/3 3/4 1/2 1/3Redesign food 1/1 - - - 1/2 - 1/3 1/4 - 1/3subsidies

Improve worker 1/1 - - - 1/3 - - - -training

Improve organ 1/1 - - - - 2/3 2/4 - 1/3efficiency

Reduce public - 1/1 1/2 - 1/3 2/3 4/4 1/2 3/3sector

Create growth - - 1/2 1/2 1/3 - 2/4 1/2 -opportunity

TABLE 6

IMPACT FACTOR SCORES FOR LATIN AMERICA: SOCIAL STRATEGY

Social Strategy Score Rank

Reduce unemployment 6.5 1Reduce public sector 4.9 2Provide social services 4.8 3Improve social sector efforts 2.7 4Improve organizational efficiency 2.4 5Create growth opportunity 2.3 6Redesign food subsidies 1.4 7Improve worker training 1.3 8Mitigate social cost 1.0 9Provide poverty programs .3 10

1168), and was observed throughout the decade (Table 7).

The Bank was also noticeably active in their efforts to develop sectoral strategies, such as improving the supply of nutritional and health-related materials.

Other areas in which the Bank displayed consistent if not a spectacular effort in its eradication of social evils were the training of local workers to cope with employment needs and demands, the provision of social services and food subsidies by the local governments, and the reduction of the total public sector work force, their final goal being the provision of country organizational efficiency. Reduction of the public sector (score = 4.9), a steady pattern of activity during the latter half of the decade (Table 5), the provision of social services (score = 4.8), and the improvement of social sector efforts (score = 2.7) all occurred consistently in the Latin American adjustment loan texts produced during the later years. These concepts ranked 1 through 4 respectively (Table 6). Furthermore, organizational efficiency in Africa was especially given more weight in the middle of the decade (Table 7).*

The Social Dimensions of Adjustment Unit's method of tracing the performance of individual households over time is one organizational tool currently employed by the Bank to improve the efficiency of country governments in responding to the needs of their constituents. For an overview of this and other programs see The World Bank, "Improved Macro and Sectoral Policy Management," in Structural Adjustment and Povertvr A Conceptual. Empirical and Policv Framework. Washington, D.C.: The World Bank Report no. 8393-AFR, 1990, 176-178.

117

TABLET

PROPORTIONS OP OCCURRENCES COVERED IN RRPS AND PPARS FOR AFRICA: SOCIAL STRATEGY; YEARS COVERED, 1980-1989.

Social Strategy 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89

Provide social services

2/2 - - - - - 1/6 - 2/6 2/5

Improve sociai sector efforts

- - - 1/4 “ 1/6 2/6 2/7 1/6 2/5

Mitigate soc cost

- - - - “ - 2/6 1/7 1/6 4/5

Provide poverty program

- 1/2 - - “ - 1/6 1/7 1/6 3/5

Reduce unempl 1/2 1/2 - - 1/1 2/6 2/6 2/7 1/6 -Redesign food subsidies

- - - 1/4 - 1/6 - - " 1/5

Improve worker training

1/2 2/2 - - - - - 1/7 -

Improve organ efficiency

“ 2/4 - “ 1/6 1/7 “ 1/5

Reduce public sector

- - ” - - -

Create growth opportunity

- - - - - - 1/7 1/6 2/5

Promote family planning

1/2 “ 1/1 ” ” 2/6 “ 1/6 1/5

Modernize and expand education

2/2 1/1 1/4 “ “ 1/5

Accelerate rural development

1/2 - - 1/4 - 2/6 2/6 2/7 “

Improve resource management

- - - - 2/6 2/6 - -

Assess social implications

- - - - 1/7 - 1/5

Contrast ru ra i/ urban impact

- - - - - - - - - 1/5

Redeploymentscheme

“ - " - - - - - - 1/5

Enhance commu­nity participation

- - - - “ - - 1/7 1/6 -

Provide self employment aid

1/5

118

TABLES

IMPACT FACTOR SCORES FOR AFRICA: SOCIAL STRATEGY

Social Strategy Score Rank

Reduce unemployment 3.1 1Modernize and expand education 2.7 2Promote family planning 2.1 3Provide social services 1.9 4Accelerate rural development 1.7 6Improve worker training 1.6 6Improve sociai sector efforts 1.6 7Provide poverty program 1.6 8Mitigate social cost 1.4 9Improve organizational efficiency 1.0 10Create growth opportunity .7 11Improve resource management .6 12Redesign food subsidies .6 13Assess social implications .3 14Enhance community participation .3 15Contrast rural/urban impact .2 16Redeployment scheme .2 16Provide seif-employment aid .2 16Reduce public sector

119Areas in which the Bank displayed a sporadic and

localized concern of an inconsistent nature were in the mitigation of the social costs of adjustment (with this area spawning its own organizational unit in the late 1980s) , the modernization of educational programs to meet current technological needs, the redeployment of workers into marketable fields, and the overall provision of growth with equity. Concepts which displayed the mitigation of the social costs and the provision of poverty programs in Latin America (Tables 5 and 6) appeared during the later loan period, but overall, they were not the most frequently observed occurrences within their social analysis. Concepts such as the improvement of efforts within social sectors(1.6), the mitigation of social costs (1.4), and the provision of poverty-related programs (1.5) in Africa were closely related concepts, occurring consistently during the later years.

In addressing social issues in Africa, such as the existence of a poor educational system and high population growth, the Bank appeared to be using concepts as part of its initiation period to implement social strategies, such as the modernization and expansion of education (score =2.7), with its highest occurrences in the early 1980s, and the promotion of family planning (score = 2.1), with its highest observance during the second half of the 1980s; these were placed second and third in the ranking of the

120designated text impact factor scores (Tables 7 and 8).

There were discussions regarding their equity strategy in Latin America, such as the creation of growth opportunities and the redesignation of food subsidies which were most prevalent during the later years. Despite the low rating that equity-related concepts such as the creation of growth opportunities and the redesignation of received allocations of African food subsidies (11, 10), their appearance was steady throughout the second half of the decade (Table 7).

The remaining occurrences in both Tables 7 and 8 indicated a rising consciousness on the Bank's level of thinking in terms of dealing with more micro-level social issues, and carefully addressing them in their proposals and assessments. Although the remaining concepts were not highly rated in their impact factor scores, the observed concepts indicated an evolution within their understanding of social issues and the attempts that were made to address them during the latter half of the decade.

The majority of the isolated and localized strategies occurred during the final years of the measured adjustment areas, with seemingly unrelated areas being related by a later Bank emphasis on bearing the social costs of adjustment strategies.

Reflections on the Social ImpactThe common element and guiding principle present

121within all of the examined Bank structural adjustment loan documents was the ultimately adverse effect that the Bank's battery of strategies had upon the poor.^ Intermediately, the supply of necessary goods to sustain a reasonable level of culture was increased,® but at a cost to the ruling urban elites, and finally, to the rural poor.

The effect of the Bank's activities upon the conditions faced by the poorest members of Latin American culture could be described as moderate in their total impact (Tables 9 and 10), in relation to the other factors measured by the Bank's social policy apparatus. Other programs affected during the later years of the impact phase of adjustment measures included benefits received by low income workers as a direct result of bank adjustment activities, the ability of the Bank to protect earmarked social programs from further demise, the ability of the Bank to decrease

This conclusion was also touched upon by Elliot Berg and Alan Batchelder in their Structural Adjustment Lending:A Critical View. Washington, D.C.; The World Bank, CPD Discussion paper no. 1985-21, Draft of unpublished typescript, 1985, 23: "Persistent poverty and slow economic growth are now recognized as stemming not only from resource scarcity and limited technology, but also from inappropriate domestic policies."

® Tables 11 and 12 reveal the effectiveness of social programs within adjustment measures undertaken in Africa as gauged during their impact stage. The Bank was effective in its efforts to decrease the civil service within participating African adjustment nations (impact factor score 3.0, Table 12), and, as a whole, the rural class within Africa benefitted from these measures. Employment levels also received a high social impact factor score (1.3), and wage earners at the low end of the African economic spectrum also stood to benefit.

122TABLE 9

PROPORTIONS OF OCCURRENCES COVERED IN RRPS AND PPARS FOR LATIN AMERICA: SOCIAL IMPACT; YEARS COVERED, 1980-1989

Social Impact 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89

Health/nutrition 1/1 1/2 1/4 .improved

Intermediate 1/1 - - 1/2 - - - - -goods increased

Labor productivity 1/1 - - - - 1/4 - -improved

Employment level - 1/1 1/2 2/3 2/4 2/2 -increased

Poor adversely - - 1/2 1/6 - - 1/3affected

Low income earners - - — — 2/3 - - -benefitted

Social program - - - 1/3 - - 1/3protected

Civil service - - - - 1/3 - - 1/3decreased

New graduates - - - 1/3 - - -vulnerable

Risks beyond - - 1/2 - - 1/4 - -control

Income distribution - - *• — — m 1/4 - 1/3affected

Government services - - “ — — — 1/4 - 1/3affected

Social pressure af­ - - - - - - - - 1/3fected implementation

TABLE 10

IMPACT FACTOR SCORES FOR LATIN AMERICA: SOCIAL IMPACT

Social Impact Score Rank

Employment level increased 3.6 1Health/nutrition improved 1.7 2Intermediate good increased 1.5 3Labor productivity improved 1.2 4Poor adversely affected .9 5Risks beyond control .7 6Low income earners benefitted .6 7Social program protected .6 7Civil service decreased .6 8Income distribution affected .5 8Government services affected .5 9New graduates vulnerable .3 9Social pressure affected implementation .3 10

123unnecessary levels of bureaucracies within Latin American country governments, the role of the Bank in implementing a more even level of income distribution, the provision of government services, and the ability of the Bank to predict future adjustment risks and to protect the vulnerable members of Latin American societies. These were the only common elements within all Bank document analyses of programs, benefits, and risks. Programs in which moderate or low growth was experienced within the impact factor level of adjustment within Africa (Tables 11 and 12) included the adverse effects experienced by the urban sector, actual improvements felt within health and nutritional programs, the successfulness of government servrices in their ability to maintain their stated objectives, the concerns of population growth and the desires of the business community, and the concurring impact on income levels and welfare levels.

The early years of adjustment activity tended to stress the short-term effects of the Bank's social programs, such as the immediate increases in labor productivity, while the later years showed consistent progress in the area of eradicating urban and rural disparities, related to the Bank's emphasis on reducing the bloated staffs of country governments, such thinking patterns were perceived in examined Latin American texts showing the levels of Latin American social impact, while the productivity of the labor

124TABLE 11

PROPORTIONS OF OCCURRENCES COVERED IN RRPS AND PPARS FOR AFRICA; SOCIAL IMPACT; YEARS COVERED, 1880-1989.

Social Impact 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89

Health/nutritionimproved

1/2 - - - - - - - 1/6 -

Intermediate goods increased

Labor productivity improved

“

Employment level increased

“ 1/2 “ “ 1/6 1/6 2/7 1/5

Poor adversely affected

- - - - - - 1/6 -

Low income earners benefitted

- - “ - - 1/6 1/6 1/7 - 1/5

Social programs protected

- - • - - - 1/6 -

Civil service decreased

“ 1/1 - - 1/6 2/7 1/6 -

New graduates vulnerable

- - - - - - - -

Risks beyond control

- - - - - - - -

Income distribu­tion affected

- - - - • - - -

Government services affected

- - - - - - 1/6 1/7 1/6 -

Sociai pressure affected implemen­tation

Urban areas hardest hit

- - • - - - 1/6 2/6 1/5

Rurai class benefitted

- - - - - 1/6 4/6 2/7 2/6 1/5

Population continued to grow

- - - - - - 1/6 -

Ineffective protection of local businesses

- - - - - - 1/6 “

Substantial urban population benefitted

- - - - - - 1/7 - -

Quality life adverse temporary effect

“ " - - - 2/7 - -

Sociai implications ignored

- - - 1/7 - -

Transition cost can be felt

" " - - • 1/7 - -

Impact on income/ welfare positive

- - - - - - - 1/7 - -

Living standard improved

- “ - - - - 1/6 • - -

Population growth decreased

- - - - - 1/6 ' - - “

Family planning improved

- - - - - 1/6 - - - -

Infant mortality decreased

1/6 -

125

TABLE 12

IMPACT FACTOR SCORES FOR AFRICA: SOCIAL IMPACT

Social Impact Score Rank

Civil service decreased 3.0 1Rural class benefitted 1.6 2Employment level increased 1.3 3Low income earners benefitted .9 4Urban areas hardest hit .7 5Heaith/Nutrition improved .6 6Government services affected A 7Quality life adverse temporary effect .2 8Poor adversely affected .1 9Social programs protected .1 9Population continued to grow .1 9Ineffective protection of local businesses .1 9Living standard improved .1 9Population growth decreased .1 9Family planning improved .1 9Infant mortality decreased .1 9Substantial urban population benefitted .1 9Sociai implications ignored .1 9Transition cost can be felt .1 9Impact on income/welfare positive .1 9Intermediate goods increased - -

Labor productivity improved - -

New graduates vulnerable - -

Risks beyond control - -

Income distribution affected - _

Social pressure affected implementation -

126force was revealed during the later adjustment years.’Two negative areas that continued to resurface during the final measured years were the Bank's inability to formulate an available family planning program to control population growth, and provisions for the urban elite to ease their rising tension concerning the Bank's interference within their internal affairs.

Towards Understanding the Political Dimensions Diagnosis of the Political Problems

The most persistent area where country governments faced criticism from the World Bank was in their day-to-day handling of matters on an administrative l e v e l . T h r e e areas showed a high consistency of occurrence within the region of Latin America and were justifiable as a coding element (Tables 13 and 14); these were the overall mismanagement of government by Latin American adjustment

’ The Country Economics Department has mentioned these type of activities as characteristic within the "least successful" of implemented structural adjustment loans; see for example. The World Bank, Report on Adjustment Lending. Washington, D.C.; The World Bank Country Economics Department, 1988, 90.

Recent Bank documents refer to this criticism as the "rationalization of regional institutions," in which analysts are critical of existing bureaucracies. See, for example. The World Bank, Structural Growth with Eouity: A Long-Term Perspective for Sub-Saharan Africa. Washington, D.C.: the World Bank, Report no. 8014, 1989, from which the following quotation has been extracted, 150: "Proliferation also creates an unmanageable problem of coordination . . . This is top- heavy and cumbersome . . . Moribund organizations have not been closed down- amalgamation of overlapping institutions has not taken place."

127participants, the bloated nature of their country governments, and the high amount of stability within their political systems. Mismanagement of the country governments received a higher impact factor score (6.3) than the other two political issues combined.

TABLE IS

PROPORTIONS OF OCCURENCES COVERED IN RRPS AND PPARS FOR LATIN AMERICA: POLITICAL ISSUES, YEARS COVERED, 1980-1989

Political Issue 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89

Poor government management 1/1 1/1 1/2 2/3 2/3 2/4 2/2 3/3Bloated public sector - — — 1/2 1/3 1/3 2/4 2/2 1/3Stable political system - 1/2 2/2 1/3 1/3 2/4

TABLE 14

IMPACT FACTOR SCORES FOR LATIN AMERICA: POLITICAL ISSUES

Political Issue Score Rank

Poor government management Bloated public sector Stabie politisai system

6.33.82.6

128The most prevalent political issue (Tables 15 and 16)

within African adjustment participating countries which possessed a definable character was the mismanagement of country governments by their own hands. This element received an impact factor score of 5.9, twice as high as the second largest score, 2.9, the presence of a stable political system within a region. Four other elements which were also highly rated on the political issue scale included the country government's encouragement of private sector initiatives, the existence of a bloated public sector, the existence of ideological differences within country reforms, and the lack of direct government participation within adjustment programs. Political issues which displayed marginal activity during the measured adjustment period included the ability of the government to implement adjustment in a timely manner (a concern of later programs), the vulnerability of adjustment to political change within countries, the government's ability to control a country's economic activity, the demand for a steady government welfare system, and the effect of adjustment within regions with variable and unpredictable political climates. Vocal expression of Bank discontent with country management operations reached its peak during the 1987 loan period and remained high for the duration of the decade.

129TABLE 16

PROPORTIONS OF OCCURENCES COVERED IN RRPS AND PPARS FOR AFRICA: POLITICAL ISSUES; YEARS COVERED, 1980-1989

Political Issue 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89

Poor government management

2/2 1/2 - 2/4 - 3/6 1/6 4/7 2/6 2/5

Bloated public sector - - - - - 1/6 2/6 1/7 1/6 1/5Stable political system - 1/2 - 1/4 1/1 1/6 1/6 1/7 3/6 1/5Demand for govt

welfare system1/2 - “ " •

Govt control of eco­nomic activities

1/2 “ - - - -

Govt encouraged pri­vate sector initia­tive

1/2 1/6 1/6 2/5

Development of private sector

- - “ 2/4 - 2/6 1/6 3/7 1/6 -

Good racial, reli­gious cultural relations

1/4

Slow govt implemen­tation

- - - 1/4 - 1/6 - - 1/6 -

Short-term crisis management

- - - - - 1/6 - - - -

Well-trained dedi­cated civil servants

- - - - - 1/6 - - “ -

Reluctant to take unpopular measures

- ** - - - 1/6 - - - -

Rural groups influence political decisions

- - - - - 1/6 “ - 1/6 -

Political constraints not well considered

- - “ - - 1/6 - - 1/6 -

Political change hurt program

- - - - - 1/6 - - 1/6 1/5

Excessive state inter­vention

- - ** - - - 1/6 - - -

Lack/direct govt par­ticipation

- - - - - - 1/6 - 2/6 2/5

Growing defense burden

- - - - - - - - 1/6 -

Fragmented govt structure

- - - - - - - - 1/6 -

Favorable climatic condition

- - - “ “ - - 1/6 1/5

Lagging political will - - - - - - - _ - 1/5Ideological difference

on reform1/1

130

TABLE 16

IMPACT FACTOR SCORES FOR AFRICA: POLITCAL ISSUES

Political Issue Score Rank

Poor government 5.9 1Stable political system 2.9 2Govt encouraged private sector initiative management 1.7 3Development of private sector 1.6 4Bloated public sector 1.0 5Ideological difference on reform 1.0 6Lack/direct govt participation .8 7Slow govt implementation .6 8Political change hurt program .6 10Demand for govt welfare system .5 10Govt control of economic activities .6 10Favorable climatic condition .4 11Political constraints not well considered .3 12Rural groups influence political decisions .3 12Good racial, religious, cultural relations .2 13Lagging political will .2 13Short-term crisis management .1 14Well-trained dedicated civil servants .1 14Reluctant to take unpopular measures .1 14Excessive state intervention .1 14Growing defense burden .1 14Fragmented govt stricture .1 14

131The only other areas in which the Bank displayed a

similar concern of a lesser intensity were in the areas of the choice of government for each represented region and their respective levels of stability, and the excessive numbers of civil servants necessary to perform government services.

Political issues expressed by the Bank in early adjustment documents but somewhat ignored in later recommendations included welfare issues and eligibility, excessive government interference in everyday business and financial matters, and the amount of dialogue between a participating government and the Bank's analysts.

Issues which only became apparent in later adjustment literature sponsored by the World Bank included the speed in which the government was able to implement the outlined adjustment schedules,the development of the private sector as a major player within represented countries, assuming responsibilities previously reserved for government agencies, and the amount of political change and its sometimes severe effect upon the stability of implemented adjustment programs.

Bank research into this grey area of management continues to this day: "The SDA [Social Dimensions of Adjustment] initiative will support research and operational efforts which can provide policy insight into various alternatives for ensuring that priority government services for the poor and vulnerable can be met through a combination of improved efficiencv of deliverv and administration." (Emphasis added by the present author), cited in the World Bank, Structural Adjustment and Povertv. 1990, 178.

132Prescription of the Political Strategies

Several areas of political strategies taken during structural adjustment loan implementation were consistently displayed throughout the examined time period for both Africa and Latin America; the improvement of country government resource allocations, the strengthening of the government's political capacity to control production levels, the promotion of sufficient policies to increase the smooth flow of export activity, the increase in the nation's ability to control political opinion regarding adjustment activities, and the reform of various public enterprise sectoral policies in order to improve the performance of agriculture, industry, and the overall management of private institutions within countries. Strategies in which the Bank expressed only a reoccurring, sporadic interest included the political control of public investment programming, various reforms to strengthen the public enterprise sector, and a government-sponsored training program for unskilled w o r k e r s . ^ Implemented

Management in this area currently involves the use of a "meso-micro information system" to identify areas in which government policies are deficient. See for an example, The World Bank, Making Adjustment Work for the Poor. 1990, 97.

Worker education is a highly complex area in adjustment policy. For a brief outline of important "empirical links between macro adjustment policy and the meso setting for the determination of education," see The World Bank, Analvsis Plans for Understanding the Social Dimensions of Adjustment. 1990, 110-112 ff.

133programs which surfaced late in the measured adjustment loan period included the overall reform of existing country developmental institutions, and the monitoring of a consensus for adjustment within and not within the civil service.

The reformation of the public enterprise sector in Africa was the primary area of emphasis undertaken by the bank, with an overall impact factor score of 3.4 (Tables 19 and 20). Following behind this goal was the desire within African nations to improve country resource allocations.Six areas grouped together by their political strategy impact factor scores included the improvement of African country management activity, the promotion of country export recovery, the restructuring of agricultural planning within regions, the reduction of the overall African civil service, the negotiation of timetables for political reforms, and the improvement of country-specific institutional structures within Africa. Marginal areas in which the bank expressed concern included the provision of country technical assistance, the need for the government to restrain itself in matters independent of its domain, an overall revision of the government's investment plan, and the reform of many of its established institutions. The promotion of export recovery (Tables 17 and 18) within the region of Latin America dwarfed the other political strategy impact factors with a ratio of almost 3 to 1 (Score = 6.1).

134TABLE 17

PROPORTIONS OF OCCURRENCES COVERED IN RRPS AND PPARS FORLATIN AMERICA: POLITICAL STRATEGY; YEARS COVERED, 1980-1989

Pol strategy 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89

Provide technical 1/1 1/2 1/2 1/3assistance

Improve resource - 1/1 1/2 - - 1/3 1/4 - 1/3allocation

Design appropriate - - 2/2 - 1/3 1/3 1/4 - -

remedyImprove govt restraint - - - 1/2 - 1/3 - 1/4 2/2 1/3

restraintImprove productive 1/1 - 1/2 - - - 1/4 - 1/3

capacityImprove govt - - - - - - - - 1/3

interventionReduce civil service . - - 1/2 1/3 1/3 - - -Promote export 1/1 - - - 2/2 3/3 3/3 3/3 1/2 2/3

recoveryNational support - - - - - - 1/3 - -

necessaryReform political - - - 1/2 - - - - -

institutions

TABLE 18

IMPACT FACTOR SCORES FOR LATIN AMERICA: POLITICAL STRATEGY

Political Strategy Score Rank

Promote export recovery 6.1 1Improve resource allocation 2.4 2Improve govt restraint 2.4 2Provide tech assistance 2.3 3Improve productive capacity 2.0 4Design appropriate remedy 1.9 5Reduce civil service 1.1 6Reform political institutions .5 7Improve govt intervention .3 8National support necessary

135TABLE 19

PROPORTIONS OF OCCURRENCES COVERED IN RRPS AND PPARS FOR AFRICA:POLITICAL STRATEGY; YEARS COVERED, 1980-1989

Political Strategy 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89

Provide tech assistance - 1/1 1/1 . .Improve resource

allocations- 1/1 - - 1/6 1/6 1/7 2/6 -

Design appropriate remedies

* • • - 1/6 -

Improve govt restraint - 1/2 - - - - 1/6 1/7 1/6 -

Improve productive capacity

1/6 2/7

Improve govt inter­vention

1/6 2/6 2/5

Reduce civil service - - - - 1/6 - 2/7 3/6 2/5Promote export

recovery• 1/1 1/4 • 1/6 - 1/6

National support necessary

Reform political institutions

- “ • - - - “ -

Revise govt invest- 1/2 ment plan

- - - - 1/6 2/7 - -

Institute support for 1/2 training

- - • - “ “ “

Reform development institutions

1/2 “ 1/4 “ 1/6 - -

Reform public enter­prise sector

1/2 - 3/4 - 2/6 3/6 2/7 4/6 2/5

Restructure agricul­tural planning

1/2 “ 1/4 1/6 1/6 - 2/5

Improve management activity

1/4 1/6 3/6 2/7 1/6 2/5

Strengthen policy making capacity

2/4 - “ - -

Use govt budget for development

“ “ 2/4 - - - 1/6 1/5

Draw up a reform timetable

- - - 1/1 2/6 - - - -

Improve institutional structure

- - 1/4 - 1/6 1/6 2/7 - 1/5

Govt communicate with people on reform

- - - - - - 1/7 - -

Govt justify short­term reform

- - - - - - 1/7 - -

Govt commitment to ease transition cost

- - - - - - 1/7 1/6 -

Study future adjust­ment measures

- - - - - - - 1/6 -

Use external resources wisely

- - - - 1/6 1/6 - 1/6

Govt consensus required

2/6

136

TABLE 20

IMPACT FACTOR SCORES FOR AFRICA: POLITICAL STRATEGY

Political Strategy Score Rank

Reform public enterprise sector 3.4 1Improve resource allocations 3.2 2Improve management activity 1.7 3Promote export recovery 1.5 4Restructure agricultural planning 1.4 5Reduce civil service 1.3 6Draw up a reform timetable 1.3 6Improve institutional structure 1.0 7Provide tech assistance 1.0 7Improve govt restraint .9 8Revise govt investment plan .9 8Reform development institutions .9 8Improve govt intervention .8 9Use govt budget for development .8 9Institute support for training .5 10Strengthen policy making capacity .5 10Use external resources wisely .5 10Improve production capacity .4 11Govt consensus required .3 12Govt commitment to ease transition cost .3 12Design appropriate remedies .1 13Study future adjustment measures .1 13Govt communicate with people on reform .1 ISGovt justify short-term reform .1 13National support necessary - -Reform political institutions

137Most of the political strategies displayed within the

region exhibited themselves over time, with the improvement of country resource allocations tying the improvement of government operational restraints as the second most consistent strategy emphasized by the Bank. Two other areas which were rated high within their political strategy impact factors included the provision of country technical assistance and the improvement of the country's overall productive capacity. Marginal areas of political concern expressed by the bank's political strategy impact factors included the designation of political remedies to adjustment ills, the reduction of country civil service levels, the reformation of country political institutions, and the improvement of government interventions to assist adjustment programs.

Reflection on the Political ConsequencesThe largest burden placed upon all of the examined

regions and their political machines was bearing the costs of a slow, difficult, and politically damaging form of loan known as structural adjustment.^* Other concerns which were commonly expressed in both Bank proposal and evaluation documents included the crippling effects of a lack of

The Bank has constantly stressed their largest handicap; "Serious problems arise . . . if an adjustment program is viewed as the Bank's rather than the country's program," cited in the World Bank, Report on Adjustment Lending. 1988, 93.

138political commitment among all loan participants, and an overreliance on country governments to fulfill all of the conditions for successful tranches (an unreasonable and impossible assumption), and a tendency for the Bank to place an undue amount of faith upon the displayed commitment exhibited by country officials during the preliminary, planning stages of loans. The effects of adjustment upon the political institutions within Africa are displayed in Tables 21 and 22. The largest factor having an effect upon political adjustment strategies in Africa were the problems which occurred during the implementation stages that ultimately delayed the entire process outlined by the Bank (Impact factor score 4.0). Adverse reactions displayed by members of the respective country governments and their bureaucratic elites combined with a lack of commitment on the part of country leaders and contributed to the lack of effectiveness displayed in bank strategies. Areas in which Africa as an entire region displayed a marked improvement over time included the strengthening of various government enterprises, and the occasional consensus reached within the African political arenas. These progressive elements were counterbalanced by a continental tendency to rely upon the government to solve problems beyond the reach of their authority. Marginal areas of political impact within the African political arena included the occasional postponement of necessary reforms, the instability of participating

139TABLE 21

PROPORTIONS OF OCCURRENCES COVERED IN RRPS AND PPARS FOR AFRICA:POLITICAL IMPACT; YEARS COVERED, 1980-1989

Political Impact 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89

Implementation slow/difficult 1/1 1/4 1/1 1/6 1/6 2/7 4/6 3/5Lack of political commitment - - - - 1/1 - 1/6 - 1/6 -

Institution weakened/institutional framework 1/2 - - - - - - 1/7 - -

neededLack of program specificity 1/2 - - - - - - - - -

Exports were accelerated - - - - - - - - - -

Reliance on government implementation 1/2 1/2 - - - - - - - -

Government displayed willingness/political - - - - - - - 2/7 1/6 -

commitment firmSubstantial social/political risks - - - 1/4 - - 1/6 2/7 - -

Subsidies reduced to poor/special interest - - - - - - - 1/7 - -

benefittedPublic enterprise management improved - 1/2 - 1/4 - - 2/6 - 1/6 -

National support necessary 1/2 - - - - - - - - -

Political pressure reality - - - - - - - - 1/6 -

Uncertain political environment - - - - - - - 1/7 1/6 -

Political power dispersed - - - - - - - - - -

Labor unrest experienced - - - - - - - 1/7 - -

Govt dialogue poor - - - - - - - 1/5 -

Govt timeliness in implementation - - - 1/4 - 1/6 1/6 - - 1/5Govt unstable - 1/2 . - - - - - -

Urban unrest/elite opposition/teacher strike 1/2 - 1/4 - - i /6 1/7 - -

Reform postponed before election/by political - - - 1/4 - 1/6 - 1/7 - -

and social environmentSome measures unpopular/politically difficult - - - 1/4 - - - - - -

Domestic opposition to reform - - - - - - - - - 2/5Poliburea dropped opposition on reform - - - - - - - - - 1/5Political diffîcult decision pending - - - - - - - - 1/6 -

CS adverse bureaucratic reaction - 1/2 1/1 1/4 - - - 1/7 - -

Prvt industry role increased - - 2/4 1/1 - - - - 1/5Political change hurt program - - - - - 1/6 - - - -

Govt failed to meet macroecon objectives - - - - - 1/6 - - — —

Cuts in govt social expenditures - - - - - - 1/6 - - -

Implementation delay costly - - - - - - 1/6 - - -

State/enterprise relations transparent - - - _ - _ - - 1/5Govt built consensus on reform/political - - - - - 1/6 - - 1/6 1/5

consensus difficultGovt contribution to poverty alleviation - 1/6 “ -

140

TABLE 22

IMPACT FACTOR SCORES FOR AFRICA: POLITICAL IMPACT

Political Impact Score Rank

Implementation slow/difficult 4.0 1CS adverse bureaucratic reaction 1.8 2P rv t industry role increased 1.7 3Lack of political commitment 1.3 4Public enterprise management improved 1.2 5Reliance on government implementation 1 6Govt timeliness in implementation .8 7Urban unrest/elite opposition/teacher strike .7 8Substantial social/political risks .7 8Institution weakened/institutional framework needed .6 9Reform postponed before election/by political and social environment .6 10Govt built consensus on reform/political consensus difficult .6 10Lack of program specificity .5 10National support necessary .5 10Govt unstable .5 10Government displayed willingness/political commitment firm .4 11Domestic opposition to reform .4 11Uncertain political environment .3 12Some measures unpopular/politically difficult .2 13Govt dialogue poor .2 13Poliburea dropped opposition on reform .2 13State/enterprise relations transparent .2 13Subsidies reduced to poor/special interest benefitted .1 14Labor unrest experienced .1 14Political pressure reality .1 14Political difficult decision pending .1 14Political change hurt program .1 14Govt failed to meet macroecon objectives .1 14Cuts in govt social expenditures .1 14Implemention delay costly .1 14Govt contribution to poverty alleviation .1 14Exports were accelerated . _Political power dispersed - -Private sector necessary

141country governments, and the necessity of leaders to build a national consensus in order for programs to experience their maximum effectiveness. The greatest impact in Latin America (Tables 23 and 24) was felt in the area of national support obtained for the policies recommended by bank analysts (Score = 3.3). Two other concepts which weighed heavily in the political evaluation of Latin America over time were the successful acceleration of individual country exports, and the necessity of country governments to receive an effective implementation of the desired programs. Elements which became evaluative issues in the later years of adjustment included the difficulties encountered in implementing the proposed schedule, the political risks involved for participating governments, and the overall effects felt by the civil service within borrowing nations. Marginal evaluative factors within the scoring of the overall political impact included the eventual dispersal of existing political institutions in power, the negative effects of adjustment upon the poorer members of society, and the lack of program specificity occasionally experienced when adjustment measures were implemented.

Sporadic concerns which were consistently raised as political risks and benefits of adjustment included the lack of program specificity in designed loans (a later concern), and the amount of political stability and its effect on timely implementation (an ongoing concern).

142TABLE 23

PROPORTIONS OP OCCURRENCES COVERED IN RRPS AND PPARS FOR LATIN AMERICA:POLITICAL IMPACT; YEARS COVERED, 1980-1989

Political Impact 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89

Implementation alow/ difficult

- - - - - 1/3 - 1/2 1/3

Lack of political commitment

- - - 1/2 - 1/3 1/4 -

Institution weakened/ - institutional frame­work needed

1/3 1/4

Lack of program specificity

- - - - - 1/3 - -

Exports were 1/1 accelerated

" 1/2 - 2/3 1/3 1/4 1/2 •

Reliance on govern­ment implementation

“ - - 1/4

Government displayed - willingness/political commitment firm

1/1 1/2 1/2 1/4 1/3

Substantial social/ political risks

- 1/1 1/2 - - “ - 2/2 -

Subsidies reduced to poor/special interest benefitted

1/3

Public enterprise management improved

1/3 1/4 1/3

National support necessary

" 1/1 1/2 1/2 1/3 - - 2/2 -

Political pressure reality

1/2 1/3 - 1/3

Uncertain political environment

- " - - 1/3 - - -

Political power dispersed

- - - - 1/3 1/3 - - -

Labor unrest experienced

“ “ 1/3 - - -

Govt dialogue poor - - - 1/2 - - - - -Govt timeliness in

implementation- - -

Govt unstable - - - 1/2 - - - _

Urban unrest/ elite opposition/ teacher strike

■ ■

Reform postponed before election/by political and social environment

1/2

Private sector necessary

1/3 1/4 1/3

143

TABLE 24IMPACT FACTOR SCORES FOR LATIN AMERICA: POLITICAL IMPACT

Political Impact Score Rank

National support necessary 3.3 1Exports were accelerated 3.2 2Government displayed willingness/political commitment firm 2.5 3Substantial social/political risks 2.5 3Political pressure reality 1.1 4Implementation slow/difficult 1.1 4Lack of political commitment 1.0 5Public enterprise management improved .9 6Private sector necessary .9 6Political power dispersed .6 7Govt dialogue poor .5 8Govt unstable .5 8Reform postponed before election/by political and social environemnt .5 8Subsidies reduced to poor/special interest benefitted .3 9Institution weakened/institutional framework needed .3 9Lack of program specificity .3 9Uncertain political environment .3 9Labor unrest experienced .3 9Reliance on government implementation .2 9Govt timeliness in implementation - -

Urban unrest/elite opposition/teacher strike

144The conclusion that can be highlighted from the above

analysis is that the Bank's approach has become more humanistic in its scope, since its ideological framework has shifted from "basic needs" to efficiency and acknowledgement, to a reduction of the social costs of adjustment, and assistance to vulnerable groups. Attention to individual country political systems, their environment, and their ability to absorb the "shock" and timeliness of the policy's implementation has increased over time; this is reflected through the Bank's effort to incorporate the input of governments within the process of adjustment, especially in the latter part of the decade.

The Bank's Socio-Historical Evolution and the SocialFormation of the Bank's Institutional Approach:

A Framework For Dialogue^®This section, therefore, offers a sociological

observation of the social knowledge which was acquired and the intersubjective understanding of the Bank's general approach towards forces which were attributed to the formation of their policy and its manifested social actions.

The Bank's approach towards the interplay of forces

Public policy is best studied when its various componential elements are examined by a valid analytical methodology. The employed method of analysis proposed a research model based on an interpretive approach which satisfied the criteria of needs for analyzing a policy of such a caliber. It was through the use of Gadamar and Schütz's philosophy and constitutive phenomenology that the acquired social knowledge presented here was interpreted.

145that determined the adoption of adjustment policy consists of actions that are utilitarian; the mental model portrayed assumes social and historical responsibilities that the developing world demands of it.

Through the manifestation of their supply-side economic philosophy, therefore, the Bank has created a world, a "social world," in which foods and services are produced, and material goods became the center of their thinking processes, and their social relevance was relegated to a peripheral position.

In this created world, the Bank becomes a saleable object in the global marketplace. Everything starts and ends within the Bank's philosophical terrain. It is in this spirit that the objective and imperative attitudes which characterize the modes of the Bank's being affected aspects of life within the developing world.

By analyzing the conceptual maps presented in this study, a tracing of perception within the Bank's social world became apparent. The dimensions of that social world presented below are based on two elements: a world of objects (an objective world) and a world of imperatives (an imperative world).

146

Objective World

Chronological Over time Social Reality

Imperative W o r l d ^

FIGURE 6PERCEIVED DIMENSIONS WITHIN THE WORLD BANK'S SOCIAL WORLD

The Bank's social world is both objective and imperative, since it belongs both to time and mundaneity. The imperative world is swayed by circumstances, emotions, and contingencies, and besieged by projects which place it on social and psychological ground. The objective world, with its ontological anchorage, is not contingent, and is on the level of existing reality. Relating these two worlds in daily life, one discovers that rigidity and flexibility both belong to the world of objects, one implying the other, with both being the result of a strict and inner organizational obedience.

If we apply these two illustrations to the World Bank experience, we discover that they are all elements pertaining to the formulation of policy, and are to be found in a world of objects. In formulating their thinking between 1980 and 1987, The Bank adopted inner organizational obedience, spontaneity, participation, and freedom from prejudice. Yet they never seem to have crossed the threshold of chronological time into the mundane present, and instead were creating a

147more rhythmic policy of a significant pattern towards the end of the 1980s. They became more than the author of policy - they were a transmitter of policy, for the Bank was adopting the right attitudes, and making contact with the world of reality.

The creation of a more humanistic policy, it seems, has not been merely a question of making more similar policies, but establishing an attitude which allows a more creative and rhythmic flow of words and images than had previously been accomplished. By turning their attention inwards, the World Bank will, in turn, orient the developing world towards a viable social reality.

Cognitive Mao Results The visual representations displayed below, however,

are the tendencies which were observed within the Bank's mental model. Such tendencies are a reflection of the perceived reality of the Bank's social world as it was constructed over the past decade, as they had been projected into one unified portrait. This articulation of social knowledge through the presentation of cognitive maps presupposes the Bank's modes of experience and cognition.The representations reflect upon the following notion:1. The Bank's treatment of each region within Africa and

Latin America was unique to each area (Graphs 1 and 2). The graphical representations for both examined regions exhibit rigidity to the extent that more than

148half of the sampled cases for each region shared the same nodes and the number of lines connecting them.In other words, they shared the same common facts and projected the same pattern of thinking. Looking at the nodes within the right columns of Graphs 1 and 2 and comparing them, we can see clearly that different interrelationships exist, along with many different intensities among the nodes as they related to each examined region. Graphs 3 and 4 show that all 22 nodes, whether assets or liabilities, exist in both maps, for Africa and Latin America, yet the interrelationships between the described nodes varied between regions, and were unique for each individual region. This suggests that structural adjustment lending policy is rigid, yet only a set of the available elements wereexamined over time. The examination of all of the facts used in 30 African cases and all of the facts used in 10 Latin American cases indicate that both regions shared the same concepts and connected them in a similar fashion. However, the number of lines connecting the similar nodes varied between regions (Graphs 3 and 4).

2. Although the Bank demonstrated a similarapproach towards each examined region, they did

149not exhibit a similar treatment of the countries within these regions. The cognitive maps examined for the selected countries of Africa and Latin America clearly demonstrate different levels of articulation as the number of nodes and relationships varied and only a set of the available elements were examined over time showing differently adopted strategies (Graphs 5 and 6).The Bank adopted a balanced approach regarding the pros and cons of adjustment on equal terms. This is shown within the equal numbers of asset and liability (12 each) concepts which exist for each map (Graphs 3 and 4). Since this approach employed basic knowledge to set a general frame for reform, there was more emphasis on actions taken than on goals achieved or actions assessed. This is apparent within the right columns of Graphs 3 and 4, where the assets were more intensively and vigorously related, as opposed to being connected to the liabilities within the left columns.Another point worth mentioning is the amount of activity and the level of complexity within each map. Thinking patterns were more intense in their outlines within Africa as opposed to Latin

150America. This is reflected in the dark shades within the right side of the African map, whereas in the Latin American cases, they were not as intense, and less activity was demonstrated (Graphs 3 and 4).

5. The level of complexity, however, wasdemonstrated in the lines connecting the nodes which indicate relationships; for example, the cases within Africa denote a more articulated and segmented policy than in the Latin American cases, where the nodes tended to be isolated and less articulated (Graphs 1 and 2). The concentration of the network of nodes and the high level of activity within the asset representations on the maps denotes this pattern, and may also be interpreted as the implications of the presumed and proposed actions, which were perceived with more Positivism.

151GRAPH 1

GRAPHICAL REPRESENTATION OF ALL FACTS USED IN 16 OF THE 30AFRICAN CASES

AF a sse t

• CG a sse tCG liability • '

GIT a sse t

GO! asset

GSPiiability # ' • G S P asset

HR liabiiity # ' • HR asset

financial liability • • financial a sse t

Key: AF = Agriculture and Food; CE = Commercial Energy; CG = Central Government; CIT = Core International Transaction;GCI = Growth of Consumption and Investment; GSP = Growth and Structure of Production; HN = Health and Nutrition; HR = Human Resources as well as Poverty Related Concepts; RD = Rural Development; UD = Urban Development; Financial = Economic Transactions, Aid, and Financial Sector activity Source: World Bank Documents in Appendix I

152GRAPH 2

GRAPHICAL REPRESENTATION OF ALL FACTS USED IN 6 OF THE 10LATIN AMERICAN CASES

AF asset

• CG assetCG liability • '

CIT a sse tCIT liability #

• G SP assetG SP liability

• HR assetHR liability

• financial a sse tfinancial liability •

Key; AF = Agriculture and Food; CE = Commercial Energy; CG = Central Government; CIT = Core International Transaction;GCI = Growth of Consumption and Investment; GSP = Growth and Structure of Production; HN = Health and Nutrition; HR = Human Resources as well as Poverty Related Concepts; RD = Rural Development; UD = Urban Development; Financial = Economic Transactions, Aid, and Financial Sector activity Source: World Bank Documents in Appendix I

153GRAPH 3

GRAPHICAL REPRESENTATION OF ALL FACTS USED IN ANY OF THE 30AFRICAN CASES

• AF asse tAF liability

CE a sse tCE liability «

CG assetCG liability

CIT assetCIT liability

GC assetGCI liability

G SP assetG S P liability

HN assetHN liability

HR assetHR liability

RD assetRD liability

UD liability i

financial liability «

production liability

UD asset

financial a sse t

production a sse t

Key: AF = Agriculture and Food; CE = Commercial Energy; CG = Central Government; CIT = Core International Transaction;GCI = Growth of Consumption and Investment; GSP = Growth and Structure of Production; HN = Health and Nutrition; HR = Human Resources as well as Poverty Related Concepts; RD = Rural Development; UD = Urban Development; Financial = Economic Transactions, Aid, and Financial Sector activity Source: World Bank Documents in Appendix I

154GRAPH 4

GRAPHICAL REPRESENTATION OF ALL FACTS USED IN ANY OF THE 10"LATIN AMERICAN CASES

RD liability •

UD liability •

financial liability

AF a sse tAF liabiiity

# CE assetCE liability •

CG assetCG liability

CIT assetCIT liability

GCI a sse tGCI liability

G SP a sse tG SP liability

HN a sse tHN liability

HR a sse tHR liability

RD asset

UD asset

• financial a ss e t

GSI liability

Key: AF = Agriculture and Food; CE = Commercial Energy; CG = Central Government; CIT = Core International Transaction;GCI = Growth of Consumption and Investment; GSP = Growth and Structure of Production; HN = Health and Nutrition; HR = Human Resources as well as Poverty Related Concepts; RD = Rural Development; UD = Urban Development; Financial = Economic Transactions, Aid, and Financial Sector activity Source: World Bank Documents in Appendix I

155GRAPH 5

GRAPHICAL REPRESENTATION OF SELECTED AFRICAN CASES

GSPlUbiKty #"

AFBmbAy #

CEQwaN #

ClTQabG Q assetG O asset GCIBabAy

• GSP asset GSP liabfiiy

# HN asset

» HR asset HR f v i i f /

RD

• hnaoaal asset hnanaai tiaoiirty

HRiabdsy

UO liabiiity * '

finanoal liaoiioy #

productcn iiaoilfty

• tinanaai asset

SGO LB5

AFTaoiJity AFIabiky

IC6

CGriaaily •CGKablky #

err BUIUTSabUy crrrobiiiy

• GSP B U I GSPliabuiy •

HR bodily • HR B U I HRiaoimy •

ROKabfiy

UOIiaOSIy

iinanoai liaOdity financial BUI finanaal liùilny

KY8

• G SP auM

HR BUI

' * 'i r a n c a i u s a i

Source: World Bank Documents in Appendix I

156GRAPH 6

GRAPHICAL REPRESENTATION OF SELECTED LATIN AMERICAN ANDCARIBBEAN CASES

• CG

err

GCI

• finanaai assai• finanaai assai

[• CG

or

e GSP

# finançai assat

JA3 BV4

# CG

e CIT

GSPBabrfty • GSP

HN HN

# HA

* finançai assat

CH7

• CE

; • CG

err

# GSPasaat

# HN

(JO

finançai UaûHity • • finançai aua t

VZ9

Source: World Bank Documents in Appendix I

157Discussion of the Results

This chapter tested the utility of certain qualitative techniques such as textual analysis against the originally stated thesis. The following is a general theoretical discussion of the results which address: (1) an examinationof the various componential elements of the Bank's stated policy of lending (descriptive map results); (2) anevaluation of the coherence within the Bank's stated policy and its socio-political nature (tabular map results); (3) apresentation of the institutional mental model (cognitive map results). This, in turn, illustrates the process of public policy making in general, and in particular, the Bank's structural adjustment philosophy.

The theories presented address the global implications of this thesis. It was through a hermeneutical reflection stressing the "historicity of understanding," that the interpreter's "fusion of h o r i z o n s , a n d identification of sources and their meanings found within their "internal­time consciousness"^^ that the social meanings embedded in the examined texts were interpreted. Furthermore, social structures were related to cognitive structures,^ to

For further elaboration on both concepts see Hans- Georg Gadamer, Truth and Method. New York: Continuum, 1975.

See Alfred Schütz, The Phenomenoloav of the Social World. Evanston, 111.: Northwestern University Press, 1967.

18 geg Kathleen Carley, "An Approach for Relating Social Structure to Cognitive Structure," Journal of Mathematical Socioloav 12/2 (1986): 137-189.

158understand the process of public policy making. Such an "articulation of the social culture" presented through the conceptual maps helped to identify the meaning of organizational knowledge, and in turn, their biases and values.

This assertion received validity through the course of its interaction with the generated data and lead to the following theoretical discussion:

Decision Making is a Primarily Formulative Process’’The World Bank employed a finite series of strategies

that reoccurred over time and across regions, irrespective of the unique conditions which existed within individual countries and within their respective continents.

Social, Cognitive, and Evaluative Structures can't be Decoupled if we are to Understand the Process

of Individual Decision-MakingBecause all of the "viewed elements" entailed within

the Bank's thinking processes and the various adjustment activities within the regions were affected, it was clear that the various strata within the decision-making processes were so interrelated that they could not be separated out into various units. Each country behaved in such a fashion

” The conclusions drawn based on the major points raised in this thesis are contrasted and compared with the points raised in Prof. Carley's substantive article: Kathleen Carley, "An Approach For Relating Social Structure to Cognitive Structure." Journal of Mathematical Socioloav 12/2 (1986): 145.

159that it fulfilled its individual requirements and responded to adjustment stimuli independently, according to the situation at hand. Therefore, the cognitive consensus (issues, strategies, and impacts) and their underlying components within structural adjustment policy were linked to social (economic, structural, and political) reality and all of its corresponding aspects.

At Least in the Short Run, Cognitive Development is a Byproduct of Social Interaction

The data in this analysis revealed that the increase in adjustment activity exhibited by the Bank within the various regions over time increased during the years when the social costs became more apparent, and the Bank's activity was intensified to offset the crippling effects of poverty within the various regions.

The Social Knowledge Base and the Social Structure are Affected by Individual Cognitive Development

in a Recursive FashionThe policies that were initiated and continued by the

Bank were more in response to the actions of the respective country governments; in other words, the strategies which survived during the overall adjustment process were those in which the general populations within the regions reached a form of consensus.

160The Tighter the Social Structure, the Greater the Potential

for Cognitive ConsensusWhen the social structure were more complex and

diversified, as in the case of Africa, the Bank's activity in the region was consistent in terms of its application.

The Tighter the Social Structure, the Greater the Potential for Cognitive Domination

This trait (expounded in above) exhibited itself within the various regions as the Bank's policy became overly consistent, regardless of the individual characteristics of the given countries.

Highly Cognitively Transitive Concepts are the Most Likely Concepts to be Used by All of the

Individuals in the SocietyWhenever the World Bank identified defects within

the government's performance, they injected formulaic macroeconomic activities. The low correlations that were expressed within the statistical data extracted from the displayed concepts in the examined Bank documents can be explained by the ever-changing nature of the policy elements within the Bank's adjustment strategies. The existence of these "transitive concepts" were essential for the assurance of a viable adjustment program within participating

161countries.^’ Finally, the following chapter summarizes the findings and presents ways in which Bank analysts can resolve the points raised within this analysis.

It is unreasonable to expect a Bank analyst to view adjustment data in any empirical format, and also expect him to reach a conclusion which is workable within a social accounting matrix. This dissertation clearly shows that the complexity of the "socio-cognitive" factors within the individual countries examined calls for an approach more sociological in its bearings.

CHAPTER V SOME PROVISIONAL CONCLUSIONS

This study focused on the World Bank's structural adjustment policy, how their thinking processes evolved during the formulation of adjustment lending, and how their various levels of thinking were identified in the entire policy spectrum, by linking social structures to cognitive structures. Furthermore, it highlighted the utility of a methodology for analyzing qualitative data via a series of conceptual maps; when combined, these maps reflected the domain of the Bank's adjustment lending policy, and identified policy-relevant inquiries that require reexamination. This study identified similarities within Bank policy in dealing with the different regions of Africa and Latin America. It demonstrated that the Bank has been behaving rigidly, in order to establish a policy-common form of agreement. Nevertheless, the Bank also showed dramatic evidence in the area of initiating changes towards a new pattern of thinking, reflected in their analyses of the elements within the Bank's formal documents.

In this final note, the purpose is not to recapitulate the results of the study, but to reflect on some of the conclusions that may be drawn for the sake of further

162

163inquiry - as this is in accordance with the nature of the present exploratory study. Because this study produced a large body of data, only some of the many possible conclusions have been considered. Clearly, a great deal more work, both with the data already generated and the future expansion of that data will be possible, and the importance of the study will unfold over time. Based on the findings in this research, if the amount of information presented in the World Bank's selected reports is an accurate measure of their efforts to include social and political analysis within their policies, then the Bank has failed in its duty to recommend complete structural reform. Yet the Bank's understanding of the structure of the economy and the source of disequilibrium remains in complete compliance with the traditional macroeconomic adjustment approach.’ Consequently, reform objectives remain steady -

’ The primary objectives of macroeconomic adjustment are restoration of a sustainable current account balance, achievement of a manageable level of debt, the controlling of inflation, and the acceleration of economic growth. Of secondary importance becomes the improvement of quality in human welfare and the quality of human resources. The pathways for adjustment are reducing aggregate demand (consumption, investment, government spending), and raising aggregate output (increasing the efficiency of the use of resources, raising the capital stock). It is through various instruments such as trade policies (exchange reform, export promotion, import liberalization), domestic resource mobilization (government expenditures, restraint and restructuring, revenue enhancements, monetary restraints, credit limits) and efficiency in the use of resources (public investment programs, price reforms, e.g., subsidies, wage policies, and public enterprise reforms) that the stated objectives may enter the implementation stage.

164as they are reflected herein the design elements throughout the decade - with slight variations as they related to various regions. The complexity of their level of thinking, in terms of their implementation of country policies, retains elements of their previously rigid strategies, unique within the continents of Africa and Latin America, as they were reflected in the documents examined that were written over the past ten years.

Social analyses and their various dimensions such as equity indicate changes as an issue in the domain of their thinking processes from basic needs in the early 1980s to growth with equity in the latter part of the decade, and reflect upon a more humanistic approach when it addressed the social costs and assistance to vulnerable groups between the middle and the end of the 1980s. Social nodes such as unemployment in Latin America and poverty in Africa - which contained the highest scores within their social impacts - remained consistent concepts displayed over time. Yet one observes that the problem of unemployment in Latin America received consistent attention to the point where it was assessed showing the bank's acknowledgement of their efforts to decrease unemployment. However, the poverty element in Africa remains a notable concept, but observed social strategy and social impact did not demonstrate a consistent response to the concerned issue. Yet the interjection of formulaic macroeconomic strategy was recognized as a means

165to deal with social elements such as poverty in both regions.

Political analyses which did not occur steadily throughout the examined texts indicates a long-term policy dialogue and consultative policy-reform planning, with or without the slight existence of a politically feasible analysis. What appears throughout the detected political issue concepts are political will, the government's capacity to implement the program, the legitimacy of individual country regimes, and the government's ability to control the possible severe responses of various groups within the country. Institutional shortfalls, such as a weak central governments's management ability to cope with rapid structural changes, are considered obstacles to the market orientation of the economy. Such stated concepts became prevalent during the middle of the 1980s and were strengthened toward the latter part of the decade; they remained in the design stage of their thinking. In the latter part of the 1980s, occurrences such as a lack of direct government participation indicated a marginal shift in their approach, and signalled that the Bank had increased confidence in individual country government input within the general process of adjustment.

Methodological Issues As the formal outcome of this research was achieved, two issues were herein considered; the problem of studying

166policy-relevant knowledge and subsequently, a policy such as structural adjustment and its formation, which proves to remain a complex social phenomenon, and the generation of an analytical tool for viewing and analyzing qualitative data. What this exploratory study, in turn, contributes to the study of a policy is that first, if nothing else, it demonstrates a technique for understanding the processes of policy making, not merely from a theoretical perspective, such as relating social structures to cognitive structures, but through an approach which examines the entire domain and closure of the gap between rhetoric and action.Involved within this analysis was a tracing of the evolution of policy through an institutional approach and its mental model, identifying forces which contributed to the formation of social actions within organizations; and determining the social reality as it had been constructed through an evaluation of the realities of language and social structure. The data generated are conscious elements and a frame of thinking articulated by the policy makers who by their words and actions defined the parameters and the entire domain presented here. This study thereby clarifies the consciousness of the Bank, and manifests their policy actions on a conscious level.

If the various levels of the Bank's thinking processes are as complex, with various degrees of intensity at various vantage points as they appear to be here, then one needs to

167have an even greater comprehension of the various socio­cultural and political contexts, and indeed, their historical extensions in terms of their design, implementation, and evaluation of the policy. Yet, the present researcher was able - through limited access to the Bank's database and other internal organizational access - to pull into relation a wide range of elements through the selected mode of inquiry - a phenomenological, hermeneutical, and interpretive approach - and to link the philosophy and method through which the similarity of the World Bank policies in dealing with different regions was examined and the quality of coherence within the Bank's socio-political thinking processes was measured. Through the interpretive approach - this unique path of explaining the perceived processes and their phenomena - the researcher recorded the acquired social knowledge into a smaller set.It is possible that through reduction, the researcher runs the risk of missing important interpretative policy elements or falsifying the phenomena observed.

Thus, the application of such an analytical tool results in representing knowledge through the visualizing of images. Here, frame structure representations at various level of abstractions are prototyped for the sake of this exploratory study and its visual properties. This study can serve as a potential knowledge base for an expert system to create a descriptive database, and its corresponding library

168cataloging. This study also produced a framework for future research in designing coding systems.

Suggested Strategy for Improving the Quality of Socio-political Analysis

In closing, then, what does this exploratory study suggest? There is a wide sentiment and proven evidence through this study that governments but not populations have been brought into the reform dialogue, that decisions are made for them over which they have no control, other than taking to the streets when frustration levels rise. It can be argued that in order for policy reform to become more successful, it should be designed to empower communities through community-based educational programs, with a strong communication development strategy component,% to convey

Communication here is defined as a process by which information can pass from the government to the general public and feedback can be received from the public by decision makers. This process has traditionally consisted of four scenarios; 1) identifying information and messages which need to be communicated; 2) targeting the audience — urban, rural, men, women, youths, and many other subgroups; 3) identifying the communicator — local or state government, NGOs; 4) designing strategy to communicate. The proposed strategy modifies the above process and identifies three actors. The implementing agencies, namely the government (state, local), mediating agency, and indigenous groups are all necessary components. The role of communication support strategy is to explain to the affected people the rationale behind adjustment strategy; to help them understand that despite the short-term hardships caused by structural adjustment, they stand to gain greater economic benefits in the medium and long-term. Further, it helps them make more efficient use of adjustment programs.I propose that such an approach provides a means to a) capture the active indicators of the socio-economic effects of policy measures; b) to use communication strategies to enhance sectoral policies; c) to increase popular

169the ramifications of economic reform measures through the communication of policy to the people. This does not require a reform-minded leadership with a Western-style democracy, nor a social structure more opt to absorb the shock. What is needed is the inclusion of stronger quality, and the utilization of social and political analyses in adjustment programs to secure a "bottom-up" approach in including the beneficiary in all aspects of policy reform programs.%Such an analysis can be strengthened through a method of

participation in the reform process; and d) to increase the general acceptance of reform. It can be hypothesized that if the World Bank includes development communication support strategies in its social dimensions projects, societal and political costs will be minimized. Communication support strategies will act as a catalyst to establish linkages at the macro level, where economic policies are designed and implemented, at the micro level, where the effects of socio­economic policy measures are felt, and at the meso or sector level, where the aforementioned two policy levels can be combined.

The design of such programs can be organized by sector (health, environment, agriculture, population, literacy, enterprise development, integrated development, women in development); by geographic area (Latin America, Africa, Asia, the Middle East, and by specific country); by technologies (communications systems, media channels, media products); by strategies (campaign vs. sustained efforts, awareness vs. behavior change); by target audiences (rural, urban, women, men, gatekeepers, and policy-makers). The program design should include modes of behavior and norms and values that govern them and try to anticipate subsequent reactions as the result of rapid change and the circumstances involved. It should also present norms, values, expectations and customs of the indigenous groups to help them adapt. At the implementation level, a baseline should be established at an earlier stage for a later evaluation. A monitoring system should also be established to address the projected constraints and to provide simultaneous corrections.

170data collection and analysis that has been proposed in this study, by including a new set of indicators.^

A Qualitative Method for Monitoring the Socio­political Dimensions of Adjustment;

Data Collection and AnalvsisTo gain insight into attitudes, beliefs, motives and

behaviors of populations affected by macroeconomic disequilibria, qualitative research, a formative technique such as the one proposed in this research, provides in-depth responses about what people think and how they feel. The implicit knowledge gained from the proposed technique can later be quantified through a computer-aided system to explicate implicit knowledge for the purpose of measurement

The causes of macroeconomic disequilibria have traditionally been measured by social indicators such as population growth rates, infant mortality, malnutrition, household income, educational enrollment levels, and unemployment rates. The poverty profile was outlined within the collected data through household surveys in an aggregate form. It can be argued that the household survey measures are simply passive indicators of adjustment effects. They do not, however, demonstrate how people react and what people are doing to adjust to economic disaster, only how they respond to its effects. Social stress survey measures instead are an active indicator; and so, they can be used to examine their addition to address the gap in structural adjustment policy, and the causes of macroeconomic disequilibria. Moreover, travelers and observers have periodically detected that in many developing countries, signs of social stress are beginning to be felt, and that societies are engaging in psychologically aberrant behavior. These stress indicators include rises in infanticide, spouse and child abuse, divorce, alcoholism, drug addiction, prostitution, white collar corruption, criminal behavior, mental illness, homelessness, and adolescent pregnancy; these are all active indicators of a society's tensions.Some of this information is not available institutionally, however, but there are indicators from project experience that their effects are in some areas catastrophic.

171which can be used as a primary data collection method for further research. It also provides a vehicle for project administrators to develop new ideas for developing and executing communications strategy® to reach a wider audience. Qualitative research has been successfully used in the context of projects, such as family planning and social marketing campaigns. This method allows people to speak for themselves rather than to let others speak for them, to allow for a discussion of actions taken and an expression of stress and frustration, which, in turn, contributes to a more participatory reform process. Communication research can assist program management in eliciting trends in human behavior that are cultural, so that an assessment of the effects of stress can be quickly identified.

Some Practical Conclusions It was asserted at the beginning of this study that

the objective of the present researcher was to trace the Bank's formative thinking patterns; in other words, their organizational approach towards the formulation, implementation, and subsequent evaluation of public policy. The presented "usable knowledge" provides an impetus for decision makers to improve policy and policy

® For a more comprehensive communication approach from theory and practice followed by case studies see Robert c. Hornik, Development Communication; Information. Agriculture, and Nutrition in the Third World. White Plains, N.Y.; Longman, 1988.

172making, consequently, it is up to the viewers of the generated conceptual maps to detect and presume the necessary changes to be implemented, and this can be understood in the context of policy formation.The descriptive mapping of the domain within the Bank's policy has resulted in the generation of a new analytical tool for the social scientist to examine data. For example, it can be used in the field of economics as a supplement to quantitative indicators. In the field of research and policy analysis, the analyst or user can evaluate the descriptors based on their personal knowledge and field of expertise; in the field of information resources management, it can be used to build interactive databases which employ hypertext thesauri. Furthermore, software could be generated based on the presented methodological tools which could be utilized in fulltext databases to produce ready­made quantitative analyses. The cognitive mapping adopted in this research pretests the application of this method of looking at group decision-making within a formal organization. The proposed approach of data collection, data structuring, information activity and analysis, produces a toolkit for conducting cost-effective social research analyses, and introduces an information tool which is accessible to less-developed countries (LDCs) with limited resources and expertise. It can also assist the Bank to bridge the gap with LDCs in communicating adjustment

173measures and in the collecting and analyzing of data on LDCs.

APPENDIX IA LIST OF WORLD BANK STRUCTURAL ADJUSTMENT

LOAN DOCUMENTS EXAMINED ARRANGED CHRONOLOGICALLYBY COUNTRY

Formata . Countryb . Report Numberc . Dated. Type of Documente. Type of Loanf. Amount (in US dollars)g. File Number (During the Coding Process)

Type of Document Codes and Loan CodesC . CreditEECSAC. European Economic Community

Special Action Credit MRP. Memorandum and Recommendation of

the President PAFC. Proposed African Facility CreditPC. Proposed Credit for a Structural

Adjustment Program (SAP)PDC. Proposed Development CreditPESAPPDC. Public Enterprise Sector

Adjustment Program Proposed Development Credit

PL. Proposed LoanPPAR. Program Performance Audit ReportPSAL. Proposed Structural Adjustment

LoanPTFSAOL. Proposed Trade and Financial

Sector Adjustment Operation Loan RRP. Report and Recommendation of the

PresidentSAIRPC. Social and Infrastructure Relief

Project Credit SAISPC. Structural Adjustment

Institutional Support Project Credit

SAL. Structural Adjustment LoanSAR. Staff Appraisal ReportTAG. Technical Assistance CreditTAL. Technical Assistance Loan

174

1751. a. Benin b. P-4931-BEN

d. RRPf. $4.5 Mil.

c. April 26, 1989e. PCg. be9.num

2. a. Bolivia b. P-2811-B0 d. RRP f. $50 Mil.

c. May 12, 1980 e . PSAL g. bvO.num

3. a. Bolivia b. 5155d. PPAR (1865-BO,

1980) f. $50 Mil.

c. June 25, 1984 e. SALg . bv4.num

4. a. Burundi b. P-4250-BU d. RRPf. $16.2 Mil.

C. April 30, 1986 e. PDC g . br6.num

5. a. Burundi b. P-4770-BU d. RRP f. $90 Mil.

c. May 11, 1988 e. PDC (SAP II) g. brS.num

6 . a. Cameroon b. P-5079-CM d. MRP f. $150 Mil.

c. May 16, 1989 e. PLg . cr9.num

7. a. Central African Republic

b. P-4377-CA d. RRP f. $14 Mil.;

$16 Mil.

C . August 11, 1986 e. PC; PAFC g . ar6.num

8 . a. Central African Republic

b. P-4813-CA d. RRP f. $40 Mil.

c. May 17, 1988 e. PDC g . ar8.num

9. a. Chad b. P-4806-CD d. RRPf. $16.2 Mil.;

$21.3 Mil.

c. July 5, 1988 e. PDC; PAFC g . cd8.num

10. a. Chile b. P-4131-CHd. RRPf. $250 Mil.

c. October 4, 1985e. PSALg. ch5.num

17611. a. Chile b. P-4383-CH

d. RRPf. $250 Mil.

c. Oct. 31, 1986e. PSAL (II)g. che.num

12. a. Chile b. P-4655-CH d. RRP f. $250 Mil.

c. Nov. 27, 1987 e. PSAL (III) g. ch7.num

13. a. Congo b. P—4544—COB d. RRP f. $70 Mil.

c. June 24, 1987 e. PL g. cg7.num

14. a. Costa Rica b. P-3984-CRd. RRP f. $80 Mil.

c. March 5, 1985 e. PSAL g. coS.num

15, a. Costa Rica b. P-4718-CR d. RRP f. $100 Mil.

c. Nov. 9, 1988 e. PSAL (II) g. coB.num

16, a. Dominica b. P-4512-D0M d. RRP f. $3 Mil.

C. May 13, 1987 e. PCg. do7.nura

17. a. Gabonese Republic

b. P-4742-GA d. RRP f. $50 Mil.

c. Mar. 21, 1988 e. PL g . grS.num

18. a. Gambia b. P-4362-GM d. RRP f. $5 Mil.;

$11.5 Mil.

c. Aug. 4, 1986 e. PDC; PAFC g. gae.num

19. a. Gambia b. P-4979-GMd. RRP f. $23 Mil.

c. April, 1989 Isic)

e. PDC g. ga9.num

20. a. Ghana b. P-4403-GH d. RRP f. $34 Mil.;

$81 Mil.

c. March 23, 1987e. PDC; PAFCg. gnV.num

17721. a . Ghana b. P-4493-GH

d. MRPf. $10.8 Mil.

c. March 23, 1987e. PCg. gh7.num

22. a. Ghana b. P-4915-GH d. RRP f. $120 Mil.

c. Feb. 28, 1989 e. PCg. gh9.num

23. a. Guinea b. P-4162-GUI d. RRP f. $25 Mil.;

$17 Mil.

c. Jan. 21, 1986e. PC; PAFC g. gu6.num

24. a. Guinea b. P-4805-GUI d. RRP f. $65 Mil.

c. May 24, 1988e. PC (SAP II) g . gu8.num

25. a. Guinea- Bissau

b. P-4524-GUBd. RRPf . $10 Mil.;

$5 Mil.

C. April 28, 1987e. PDC; PAFC g . gb7.num

26. a. Guinea- Bissau

b. P-4980-GUBd. RRPf. $23.4 Mil.

C. April 25, 1989e. PDC (SAP II)g . gb9.num

27. a. Guyana b. P-2935-GUA d. RRP f. $14 Mil.;

$8 Mil.

c. Jan. 12, 1981e. PSAL; PCg . gyl.num

28. a. Guyana b.d.

f.

6119PPAR(1948-GUA, 1098-GUA, 1949-GUA, $14 Mil.; $8 Mil.; $1.5 Mil.

1981)

c. March 26, 1986 e. SAL; C;

TAL (II)

g . gy 6. num

29. a. Ivory Coast

b. P-3143-IVCd. RRPf. $150 Mil.

c. Nov. 2, 1981e. PSALg. ici.num

17830. a . Ivory

Coastb. P-3613-IVCd. RRPf. $250.7 Mil.

c. June 9 , 1983e. PSAL (II)g. ic3.num

31. a. Ivory Coast

b. 5741 d. PPAR

(2058-IVC, 1981)

f. $150 Mil.

c. June 28, 1985 e. SAL (I)

g . ic5.num

32. a. Ivory Coast

b. P-4317-RCI d. RRP f. $250 Mil.

c. May 12, 1986 e. PSAL (III) g. ic6.num

33. a. Jamaica b. P-3216-JM d. RRPf. $76.2 Mil.

c. Feb. 26, 1982 e. PSAL g. ja2.num

34. a. Jamaica b. P-3559-JM d. RRPf. $60.2 Mil.

C. May 5, 1983 e. PSAL (II) g. ja3.num

35. a. Jamaica b. P-3889-JM d. RRP f. $55 Mil.

C. Oct. 23, 1984 e. PSAL (III) g . j a4.num

36. a. Jamaica b. 5762 d. PPAR

(2105-JM, 1982)

f. $76.2 Mil.

c. June 28, 1985 e. SAL (I)

g. ja5.num

37. a. Jamaica b. P-4580-JM d. RRP f. $40 Mil.

C. May 26, 1987 e . PTFSAOL g. ja7.num

38. a. Jamaica b. 8018 d. PPAR

(2315-JM, 2418-JM, 1983-1984)

f. $60.2 Mil.; $55 Mil.

C. Aug. 11, 1989 e. SAL II

SAL III

g. ja9.num

17939. a. Kenya

40. a. Kenya

b. P-2670-KEd. RRPf. $55 Mil.;

$15 Mil.b. P-3322-KEd. RRPf. $60.9 Mil.;

$62.9 Mil.

c. Feb. 11, 1980e. PC; EECSACg. kyO.num

c. June 10, 1982 e. PSAL (II);

PCg. ky2.num

41. a. Kenya b. 4934d. PPAR (999-KE,

56-KE, 1980)

f. $55 Mil.;$15 Mil.

c. Feb. 10, 1984e. C; EECSAC

g. kyS.num (sic)

42. a. Kenya b. 5682d. PPAR (2190-KE,

1276-KE, 1982)

f. $60.9 Mil.; $62.9 Mil.

C. May 31, 1985 e. SAL (II); C

g. ky5.num

43. a. Liberia b. P-3917-LBR d. RRPf. $26.8 Mil.

c. Jan. 4, 1985e. PCg. Ib5.num

44. a. Malawi b. P-3663-MAI d. RRP f. $55 Mil.

C. Nov. 29, 1983e. PCg. ma3.num

45. a. Malawi

46. a. Mali

b. 6833d. PPAR (2026-MAI,

1427-MAI, 2027-MAI, 1981-1985)

f. $45 Mil.;$55 Mil.;$1 Mil.

b. P-4734-MLId. RRPf. $40 Mil.

c. June 12, 1987e. SAL I;

SAL II;TAL I

g . ma7.num

c. June 7, 1988e. PESAPPDCg. ml8.num

18047. a. Mauritania b. P-4550-MAU

d. RRP f. $15 Mil.;

$27.4 Mil.

c. May 11, 1987e. PDC; PAFCg. mt7.num

48, a. Mauritius b. P-2999-MAS d. RRP f. $15 Mil.

c. May 4, 1981 e. PSAL g. mrl.num

49 a. Mauritius b. P-3500-MAS d. RRP f. $40 Mil.

C. Nov. 16, 1983 e. PSAL (II) g. mr3.num

50. a. Mauritius c. June 30, 1987 e. SAL I;

SAL II TAL

b. 6870d. PPAR (2010-MAS,

2361-MAS,2362-MAS,1981-1983)

f. $15 Mil.;$40 Mil.;$5 Mil.; ($4.3 Mil. balance

cancelled)

g. mr7.num

51. a. Niger b. P-4185-NIR d. RRP f . $20 Mil.;

$40 Mil.

c. Jan. 23, 1986 e. PDC; PAFC g. ng6.num

52. a. Nigeria b. P-3814-UNI d. RRP f. $300 Mil.

C. May 22, 1984 e. PSAL g. nr4.num

53. a. Panama b. P-3644-PAN d. RRPf. $60.2 Mil.

C. Oct. 19, 1983 e. PSAL g. pa3.num

54. a. Panama b. P-4376-PAN d. RRP f. $100 Mil.

c. Nov. 13, 1986 e. PSAL (II) g. pa6.num

55. a. Senegal b. P-2869a-SE d. RRP f. $30 Mil.;

$30 Mil.

C. Nov. 26, 1980e. PSAL; PDCg. sgO.num

18156. a. Senegal b. 5637

d. PPAR (1931-SE, 1084-SE, 1980)

f. $30 Mil.;

c. May 9, 1985 e. SAL; C

g. sgS.num$30 Mil. ($16.2 Mil. cancelled)

57. a. Senegal b. P-4213-SE d. RRP f. $20 Mil.;

$44 Mil.

c. Jan. 10, 1986e. PDC; PAFCg. sg6.num

58. a. Senegal b. P-4498-SE d. RRP f. $45 Mil.;

$40 Mil.

c. May 4, 1987 e. PDC; PAFC g . sg7.num

59. a. Togo b. P-3534-T0 d. RRP f. $40 Mil.

c. April 26, 1983e. PCg. tg3.num

60. a. Togo b. P—4064—TO d. RRPf. $27.8 Mil.;

$40 Mil.

c. May 1, 1985 e. PDC; C g. tg5.num

61. a. Togo b. 7361d. PPAR (3-TO,

930-TO,1270-TO,1365-TO)

f. $40 Mil.;$2.2 Mil.$3.5 Mil.

c. June 30, 1988e. C; TAC I;

TAC II

g. tg8.num

62. a. Uruguay b. P-4518-UR d. RRP f. $80 Mil.

c. May 18, 1987 e. PSAL g. ur7.num

63. a. Uruguay b. P-5071-URd. MRPf. $140 Mil.

c. May 16, 1989e. PSAL (II)g. ur9.num

18264, a. Venezuela b. P-5069-VE

d. RRPf. $402 Mil.

c. May 22, 1989e. PSALg. vz9.num

65, a. Zaire b. P-4596-ZR d. RRP f. $55 Mil.;

$94.3 Mil.

C. May 29, 1987 e. PDC; PAFC g. zrV.num

GENERAL COMMENTS ON THE DOCUMENTS REVIEWED

Future analyses could also evaluate the loan amounts as they were awarded by country, continent, or region, proposals versus the actual amounts of granted loans, and the loans themselves as arranged by years or amounts. Loan numbers 37 and 46 in this appendix were proposals for sectoral adjustment loans.DOCUMENT NUMBER IS AN EVALUATION OF NUMBER

3--------------------------------------------------228-------------------------------------------------2731-------------------------------------------------2936-------------------------------------------------3338--------------------------------------------- 35-364 1-------------------------------------------------394 2-------------------------------------------------4050--------------------------------------------- 48-4956-------------------------------------------------5561-------------------------------------------------59

SDR (Special Drawing Right Dollar amounts used for international indebtedness) were converted to US dollar amounts.

APPENDIX II AN OVERALL REPRESENTATION

The Big Picture

1 concept inv common

. , '

other sI

'Sm&MSm

Reprinted by permission from Kathleen Carley, included in the 1989 American Sociological Society Didactic Seminal Computer Analysis of Qualitative Data. Kathleen Carley, Overhead, Copyright 1989, all rights reserved.

183

184CODING TEXT AS MAPS

USER

USERi

SETUPFILE> ( SETUP

MAP> ( CODEF

Adapted from the 1989 American Sociological Society Didactic Seminal Computer Analysis of Qualitative Data. Kathleen Carley, Overhead, copyright 1989 Kathleen Carley, all rights reserved.

185APPLICATION OF COMPRA AND SCOMPRA

USER

C

SETUPFILE

UNION MAP INTERSECTION MAP

([^MATISTICsJ^

USER SETUPFILE■►( SCOMPRA ] 4

FIRST SE T

MAP

SECOND SET

MAP

STATISCAL OUTPUT

Adapted from the 1989 American Sociological Society Didactic Seminal Computer Analysis of Qualitative Data. Kathleen Carley, Overhead, copyright 1989 Kathleen Carley, all rights reserved.

APPENDIX IIIGRAPHICAL REPRESENTATIONS OF THE DATA EXTRACTED

AND PRESENTED IN APPENDIX I

186

187

• AF a sse t

• CG a sse tCG liability

CIT a sse tGIT liability • ,

GGI a sse t

G SP assetG SP liability

HN asset

HR assetHR liability

RD assetRD liability

• UD asset

• financial a sse tfinancial liability •

KYO

Key: AF = Agriculture and Food; CE = Commercial Energy; CG = Central Government; CIT = Core International Transaction; G Cl = Growth of Consumption and Investment; GSP = Growth and Structure of Production; HN = Health and Nutrition; HR = Human Resources as well as Poverty Related Concepts; RD = Rural Development; UD = Urban Development; Financial = Economic Transactions, Aid, and Financial Sector activity Source: World Bank Documents in Appendix I

188

• AF a s s e tAF liability •

CE liability # ,

• CG a sse tCG liability

CIT liability

GCI a sse t

G S P assetG SP liability

HR a sse tHR liability

RD a sse t

UD liability

financial liability • • financial a sse t

production liability •

SGO

Key: AF = Agriculture and Food; CE = Commercial Energy; CG = Central Government; CIT = Core International Transaction; GCI = Growth of Consumption and Investment; GSP = Growth and Structure of Production; HN = Heaith and Nutrition; HR = Human Resources as weii as Poverty Related Concepts; RD = Rural Development; UD = Urban Development; Financial = Economic Transactions, Aid, and Financial Sector activity Source: Worid Bank Documents in Appendix I

189

• AF asse tAF liability

• CE a sse t

# CG assetCGIiabiiity • '

• e r r a sse t

GGI assetGGI liability

G SP a sse t

HR assetHRiiability

RD asset

# financial a sse tfinancial liability •

• production a sse t

ICI

Key: AF = Agriculture and Food; CE = Commercial Energy; CG = Central Government; CIT = Core International Transaction; GCI = Growth of Consumption and Investment; GSP = Growth and Structure of Production; HN = Health and Nutrition; HR = Human Resources as well as Poverty Related Concepts; RD = Rural Development; UD = Urban Development; Financial = Economic Transactions, Aid, and Financial Sector activity Source: World Bank Documents in Appendix I

190

• AF a sse tAF liability # ,

CE assetCEIiabiiity # ,

,# CG assetC G liability • ;

• CiT a sse tCITiiabiiHy

GCI asset

G SP asset

HR assetHR liability

UD liability

financial liability # • financial a sse t

KY2

Key: AF = Agriculture and Food; CE = Commercial Energy; CG = Central Government; CIT = Core International Transaction; GCI = Growth of Consumption and Investment; GSP = Growth and Structure of Production; HN = Health and Nutrition; HR = Human Resources as well as Poverty Related Concepts; RD = Rural Development; UD = Urban Development; Financial = Economic Transactions, Aid, and Financial Sector activity Source: World Bank Documents in Appendix I

191

• AF a sse tAF liability #

CE liability # ,

# CG a sse tCG liability • '

CIT assetCIT liability

GCI asset

G SP assetG SP liability • '

HN asset

HR assetHR liability # '

• financial a sse tfinancial liability •

MA3

Key; AF = Agriculture and Food; CE = Commercial Energy; CG = Central Government; CIT = Core International Transaction; GCI = Growth of Consumption and Investment; GSP = Growth and Structure of Production; HN = Health and Nutrition; HR = Human Resources as well as Poverty Related Concepts; RD = Rural Development; UD = Urban Development; Financial = Economic Transactions, Aid, and Financial Sector activity Source: World Bank Documents in Appendix I

192

AF a sse t

CE liability

• CG a sse tCG liability #

» CIT a ss e t

GCI a sse t

G S P assetG SP liability

HN asset

HR a sse tHR liability

• financial a sse tfinancial liability

production liability •

MR3

Key; AF = Agriculture and Food; CB = Commercial Energy; CG = Central Government; CIT = Core International Transaction; GCI = Growth of Consumption and Investment; GSP = Growth and Structure of Production; HN = Health and Nutrition; HR = Human Resources as well as Poverty Related Concepts; RD = Rural Development; UD = Urban Development; Financial = Economic Transactions, Aid, and Financial Sector activity Source: World Bank Documents in Appendix I

193

AF asset

• CG assetCG liability

CIT liability

GCI liability

G SP a sse tG SP liability

HR assetHR liability

• RD asset

• financial a ss e tfinancial liability #

IC5

Key: AF = Agriculture and Food; CE = Commercial Energy; CG = Central Government; CIT = Core International Transaction; GCI = Growth of Consumption and Investment; GSP = Growth and Structure of Production; HN = Health and Nutrition; HR = Human Resources as well as Poverty Related Concepts; RD = Rural Development; UD = Urban Development; Financial = Economic Transactions, Aid, and Financial Sector activity Source: World Bank Documents in Appendix I

194

• AF assetAF liability •

• CE a sse tCE liability

,# CG a sse tCG liability #

# CIT assetCUIiability #

GCI a ssetGCI liability

G SP assetG S P liability

HR assetHR liability

• financial a sse tfinancial liability •

KY5

Key: AF = Agriculture and Food; CE = Commercial Energy; CG = Central Government; CIT = Core International Transaction; GCI = Growth of Consumption and Investment; GSP = Growth and Structure of Production; HN = Health and Nutrition; HR = Human Resources as well as Poverty Related Concepts; RD = Rural Development; UD = Urban Development; Financial = Economic Transactions, Aid, and Financial Sector activity Source: World Bank Documents in Appendix I

195

• AF asse t

# CE a sse t

M CG a sse tCG liability

CIT a sse tCIT liability

GCI a sse tGCI liability

G S P assetG SP liabiiity

HN asset

HR assetHR liabiiity

# financial a sse tfinancial liability

LBS

Key: AF = Agriculture and Food; CE = Commercial Energy; CG = Central Government; CIT = Core International Transaction; GCI = Growth of Consumption and Investment; GSP = Growth and Structure of Production; HN = Health and Nutrition; HR = Human Resources as well as Poverty Related Concepts; RD = Rural Development; UD = Urban Development; Financial = Economic Transactions, Aid, and Financial Sector activity Source: World Bank Documents in Appendix I

196

AF liability

CEIiabiiity # ,

CG liability # '

CIT liabiiity

G SP liability <

HR liability «

UD liability

financial liability •

AF a sse t

CG a sse t

O G S P asset

HN asset

• HR asset

RD asset

financial a sse t

MA5

Key: AF = Agriculture and Food; CE = Commercial Energy; CG = Central Government; CIT = Core International Transaction; GCI = Growth of Consumption and Investment; GSP = Growth and Structure of Production; HN = Health and Nutrition; HR = Human Resources as well as Poverty Related Concepts; RD = Rural Development; UD = Urban Development; Financial = Economic Transactions, Aid, and Financial Sector activity Source: World Bank Documents in Appendix I

197

AF liability # ,

CE liability # ,

CG liability

CIT liability

• AF a sse t

G SP liability

HR liability

RD liabiiity

UD liability #

financial liability

• CG asset

CIT asset

GCI asset

# G SP asset

> HR asset

RD asset

UD asset

financial a s s e t

SG5

Key: AF = Agriculture and Food; CE = Commercial Energy; CG = Central Government; CIT = Core International Transaction; GCI = Growth of Consumption and Investment; GSP = Growth and Structure of Production; HN = Heaith and Nutrition; HR = Human Resources as well as Poverty Related Concepts; RD = Rural Development; UD = Urban Development; Financial = Economic Transactions, Aid, and Financial Sector activity Source: World Bank Documents in Appendix I

198

AF a sse t

• CE asset

,# CG assetCG liability •;

e r r liability e

GCI a sse t

G SP asset

HN liabiiity

HR a sse tHR liability

UD liability • '

financial a sse tfinancial liability •

GU6

Key: AF = Agriculture and Food; CE = Commercial Energy; CG = Central Government; CIT = Core International Transaction; GCI = Growth of Consumption and Investment; GSP = Growth and Structure of Production; HN = Health and Nutrition; HR = Human Resources as well as Poverty Related Concepts; RD = Rural Development; UD = Urban Development; Financial = Economic Transactions, Aid, and Financial Sector activity Source: World Bank Documents in Appendix I

199

AF liability # ,

CG liability •

GCI liability

G SP liability

HR liability

RD liabiiity •

UD liability •

financial liability

AF a sse t

• CE asset

• CG a sse t

HR asset

RD asset

• G SP asset

• UD asset

financial a sse t

AR6

Key: AF = Agriculture and Food; CE = Commercial Energy; CG = Central Government; CIT = Core International Transaction; GCI = Growth of Consumption and Investment; GSP = Growth and Structure of Production; HN = Heaith and Nutrition; HR = Human Resources as well as Poverty Related Concepts; RD = Rural Development; UD = Urban Development; Financial = Economic Transactions, Aid, and Financial Sector activity Source: Worid Bank Documents in Appendix I

200

AF a sse t

CE liability • ,

• CG a sse tCGIiabiiity • ;

CIT asse te r r liability

GCI a sse t

G S P a sse tG SP liability

HN assetHN liability

# HR assetHR liability # '

e financial a sse tfinancial liabiiity •

GA6

Key: AF = Agriculture and Food; CE = Commercial Energy; CG = Central Government; CIT = Core International Transaction; GCI = Growth of Consumption and Investment; GSP = Growth and Structure of Production; HN = Health and Nutrition; HR = Human Resources as well as Poverty Related Concepts; RD = Rural Development; UD = Urban Development; Financial = Economic Transactions, Aid, and Financial Sector activity Source: World Bank Documents in Appendix I

201

AF a sse t

• CE assetCE liability # ,

I# CG assetCG liability # '

CIT a sse t

GCI liability

G SP assetG SP liabiiity

HN a sse t

HR assetHR liability

RD liability

# financial a sse tfinancial liability #

production liability •

BR6

Key: AF = Agriculture and Food; CE = Commercial Energy; CG = Central Government; CIT = Core International Transaction; GCI = Growth of Consumption and Investment; GSP = Growth and Structure of Production; HN = Health and Nutrition; HR = Human Resources as well as Poverty Related Concepts; RD = Rural Development; UD = Urban Development; Financial = Economic Transactions, Aid, and Financial Sector activity Source:-World Bank Documents in Appendix I

202

AF asset

• CE a sse t

• CG a sse tCG liability

CITiiabiiity

GCI asset

G S P a sse tG S P liability

HN asset

HR assetHR liability

RD liability

• financial a sse tfinancial liability •

NG6

Key: AF = Agriculture and Food; CE = Commercial Energy; CG = Central Government; CIT = Core International Transaction; GCI = Growth of Consumption and Investment; GSP = Growth and Structure of Production; HN = Health and Nutrition; HR = Human Resources as well as Poverty Related Concepts; RD = Rural Development; UD = Urban Development; Financial = Economic Transactions, Aid, and Financial Sector activity Source; World Bank Documents in Appendix I

203

• AF a sse tAF liability

• CG assetCG liability # '

• CIT asset

GCI asset

G SP assetG SP liability

HR assetHR liability

RD asset

• financial a sse tfinancial liability •

SG6

Key: AF = Agriculture and Food; CB = Commercial Energy; CG = Central Government; CIT = Core International Transaction; GCI = Growth of Consumption and Investment; GSP = Growth and Structure of Production; HN = Health and Nutrition; HR = Human Resources as well as Poverty Related Concepts; RD = Rural Development; UD = Urban Development; Financial = Economic Transactions, Aid, and Financial Sector activity Source: World Bank Documents in Appendix I

204

AF liability •

CG liability #

/CITiiabiiity •

GCI liability

G S P liability

HR liabiiity

RD liability •

UD liability •

financial liability •

AF a sse t

• CE asset

CG asset

G SP asset

• HR a ss e t

RD a sse t

UD a sse t

financial a s s e t

IC6

Key: AF = Agriculture and Food; CE = Commercial Energy; CG = Central Government; CIT = Core International Transaction; GCI = Growth of Consumption and Investment; GSP = Growth and Structure of Production; HN = Health and Nutrition; HR = Human Resources as well as Poverty Related Concepts; RD = Rural Development; UD = Urban Development; Financial = Economic Transactions, Aid, and Financial Sector activity Source: World Bank Documents in Appendix I

205

AF liability # ,

CGIiabiiity •

~G SP liabiiity • '

HR liabiiity •

UD liability

financial liabiiity •

CG a sse t

• C T asset

G SP asset

# HR asset

UD asset

financial a sse t

MA7

Key: AF = Agriculture and Food; CE = Commercial Energy; CG = Central Government; CIT = Core International Transaction; GCI = Growth of Consumption and Investment; GSP = Growth and Structure of Production; HN = Health and Nutrition; HR = Human Rouources as well as Poverty Related Concepts; RD = Rural Development; UD = Urban Development; Financial = Economic Transactions, Aid, and Financial Sector activity Source: World Bank Documents in Appendix I

206

AF liability A # AF a ss e t

C E liability

CGIiabiiity

CITiiabiiity

GCI liability

G S P liabiiity <

HR liability

UD liability •

financial liabiiity •

• C E asset

# CG asset

CIT a sse t

GCI a sse t

G SP a sse t

• HR a sse t

RD asset

financial a ss e t

GB7

Key: AF = Agriculture and Food; CE = Commercial Energy; CG = Central Government; CIT = Core International Transaction; GCI = Growth of Consumption and Investment; GSP = Growth and Structure of Production; HN = Health and Nutrition; HR = Human Resources as well as Poverty Related Concepts; RD = Rural Development; UD = Urban Development; Financial = Economic Transactions, Aid, and Financial Sector activity Source: World Bank Documents in Appendix I

207

• AF assetAF liability

• CE a sse tCE liability

, • CG asset

GIT asset

G SP a sse tG SP liability

HR assetHR liability

• financial a s s e tfinancial liability •

M R7

Key: AF = Agriculture and Food; CE = Commercial Energy; CG = Central Government; CIT = Core International Transaction; G Cl = Growth of Consumption and Investment; GSP = Growth and Structure of Production; HN = Health and Nutrition; HR = Human Resources as well as Poverty Related Concepts; RD = Rural Development; UD = Urban Development; Financial = Economic Transactions, Aid, and Financial Sector activity Source: World Bank Documents in Appendix I

208

AF a sse t

• CE assetCE liability

.# CG assetCG liability

GCI a sset

G SP assetG S P liability

HR assetHR liability

• financial a ss e tfinancial liability •

GR8

Key: AF = Agriculture and Food; CE = Commercial Energy; CG = Central Government; CIT = Core International Transaction; GCI = Growth of Consumption and Investment; GSP = Growth and Structure of Production; HN = Health and Nutrition; HR = Human Resources as well as Poverty Related Concepts; RD = Rural Development; UD = Urban Development; Financial = Economic Transactions, Aid, and Financial Sector activity Source: World Bank Documents in Appendix I

209

AF asset

• CE a sse t

I# CG assetCG liability • ;

CIT liability #

GCI liability

G SP a sse t

HR assetHR liability

• financial a s s e tfinancial liability •

production liability •

GU8

Key: AF = Agriculture and Food; CE = Commercial Energy; CG = Central Government; CIT = Core International Transaction; GCI = Growth of Consumption and Investment; GSP = Growth and Structure of Production; HN = Health and Nutrition; HR = Human Resources as well as Poverty Related Concepts; RD = Rural Development; UD = Urban Development; Financial = Economic Transactions, Aid, and Financial Sector activity Source; World Bank Documents In Appendix I

210

• AF a sse t

• CE a sse t

,# CG assetCG liability # i

CIT asset

GCI a ssetGCI liability •

G SP a sse tG SP liability

HR assetHR liabiiity

UDIiabiiity •

• financial a sse tfinancial liability •

TG8

Key: AF = Agriculture and Food; CE = Commercial Energy; CG = Central Government; CIT = Core International Transaction; GCI = Growth of Consumption and Investment; GSP = Growth and Structure of Production; HN = Health and Nutrition; HR = Human Resources as well as Poverty Related Concepts; RD = Rural Development; UD = Urban Development; Financial = Economic Transactions, Aid, and Financial Sector activity Source: World Bank Documents in Appendix I

211

AF asset

• CE a sse t

,# CG assetCG liability

CIT liability

GCI asset

G SP assetG SP liability

HR assetHR liability

# financial assetfinancial liability •

CD8

Key: AF = Agriculture and Food; CE = Commercial Energy; CG = Centrai Government; CIT = Core International Transaction; GCI = Growth of Consumption and Investment; GSP = Growth and Structure of Production; HN = Health and Nutrition; HR = Human Resources as well as Poverty Related Concepts; RD = Rural Development; UD = Urban Development; Financial = Economic Transactions, Aid, and Financial Sector activity Source: World Bank Documents in Appendix I

212

AF asse tAF liability

CE liability

• CG assetCG liabiiity •

CIT a sse t

HN a sse tHN liability

HR a sse tHR liability

RD liability

UD liabiiity

G SP liability G SP a sse t

financial liability

UD asset

financiai a s s e t

BR8

Key; AF = Agriculture and Food; CB = Commercial Energy; CG = Central Government; CIT = Core International Transaction; GCI = Growth of Consumption and Investment; GSP = Growth and Structure of Production; HN = Health and Nutrition; HR = Human Resources as well as Poverty Related Concepts; RD = Rural Development; UD = Urban Development; Financial = Economic Transactions, Aid, and Financiai Sector activity Source: World Bank Documents in Appendix I

213

AF liability •

CG liability

CIT liability <

G SP liability

HR liability

financiai liabiiity •

CG asset

CIT asse t

• G SP asset

• HR asset

financial a sse t

KY8

Key: AP = Agriculture and Food; CE = Commercial Energy; CG = Central Government; CIT = Core International Transaction; GCI = Growth of Consumption and Investment; GSP = Growth and Structure of Production; HN = Health and Nutrition; HR = Human Resources as well as Poverty Related Concepts; RD = Rural Development; UD = Urban Development; Financial = Economic Transactions, Aid, and Financial Sector activity Source: World Bank Documents in Appendix I

214

AF asset

CG liability

GSP liability

HR liability

UD liability

financiai iiability #

• CE asset

# CG asset

CIT a sse t

GCI a sse t

• G SP a sse t

HN a sse t

HR a sse t

# financial a ss e t

BE9

Key: AF = Agriculture and Food; CE = Commercial Energy; CG = Central Government; CIT = Core International Transaction; GCI = Growth of Consumption and Investment; GSP = Growth and Structure of Production; HN = Health and Nutrition; HR = Human Resources as well as Poverty Related Concepts; RD = Rural Development; UD = Urban Development; Financial = Economic Transactions, Aid, and Financial Sector activity Source: World Bank Documents in Appendix I

215

AF asse t

e CG assetCG liability # '

CIT asse te r r liability •

GCI a sse tGCI liability •

G SP a sse tG SP liabiiity

HN a sse tHN liability

HR a sse tHR liability

• financial a ss e tfinancial liability •

GH9

Key: AF = Agriculture and Food; CE = Commercial Energy; CG = Central Government; CIT = Core International Transaction; GCI = Growth of Consumption and Investment; GSP = Growth and Structure of Production; HN = Health and Nutrition; HR = Human Resources as well as Poverty Related Concepts; RD = Rural Development; UD = Urban Development; Financial = Economic Transactions, Aid, and Financial Sector activity Source: World Bank Documents in Appendix I

216

• AF asset

CE liability # ,

# CG assetCG liability

CIT assetCIT liability

GCI a sset

G SP a sse tG SP liability

HN asset

HR asset

• financiai a sse tfinancial liability #

JA3

Key: AF = Agriculture and Food; CE = Commercial Energy; CG = Central Government; CIT = Core International Transaction; GCI = Growth of Consumption and Investment; GSP = Growth and Structure of Production; HN = Health and Nutrition; HR = Human Resources as well as Poverty Related Concepts; RD = Rural Development; UD = Urban Development; Financial = Economic Transactions, Aid, and Financial Sector activity Source: World Bank Documents in Appendix I

217

AF liability # ,

• CE assetCE liabiiity • '

• CG a sse tC G liability •;

CIT a sse tCIT liability

GCI assetGCI liability

G SP assetGSP liability

HR assetHR liability

• financiai a ssetfinancial liability #

BV4

Key: AP = Agriculture and Food; CE = Commercial Energy; CG = Centrai Government; CIT = Core International Transaction; GCI = Growth of Consumption and Investment; GSP = Growth and Structure of Production; HN = Health and Nutrition; HR = Human Resources as well as Poverty Related Concepts; RD = Rural Development; UD = Urban Development; Financial = Economic Transactions, Aid, and Financial Sector activity Source: World Bank Documents in Appendix I

218

AF asset

• C G assetCG liability

CIT assetCIT liability

GCI a sse t

G SP a sse tG SP liability

HR a sse tHR liability

• financial a ss e tfinancial liability •

CHS

Key: AF = Agriculture and Food; CE = Commercial Energy; CG = Central Government; CIT = Core International Transaction; GCI = Growth of Consumption and Investment; GSP = Growth and Structure of Production; HN = Health and Nutrition; HR = Human Resources as well as Poverty Related Concepts; RD = Rural Development; UD = Urban Development; Financial = Economic Transactions, Aid, and Financial Sector activity Source: World Bank Documents in Appendix I

219

# AF asset

CE liability # ,

# CG assetCG liabiiity

• CIT assetCIT liability •

G SP a sse t

HN liabiiity

HR a sse tHR iiability

• financiai a s s e tfinancial liability •

C H6

Key: AF = Agriculture and Food; CB = Commercial Energy; CG = Central Government; CIT = Core International Transaction; GCI = Growth of Consumption and Investment; GSP = Growth and Structure of Production; HN = Health and Nutrition; HR = Human Resources as well as Poverty Related Concepts; RD = Rural Development; UD = Urban Development; Financial = Economic Transactions, Aid, and Financial Sector activity Source: World Bank Documents in Appendix I

220

• AF a sse tAF liability •

CE liabiiity • ,

# CG assetCG liability • '

CIT assetCIT liability •

# G SP a sse tG SP liability

• HR assetHR liability

I# UD asset

• financial a sse tfinancial liability •

PA6

Key: AF = Agriculture and Food; CE = Commercial Energy; CG = Central Government; CIT = Core International Transaction; GCI = Growth of Consumption and Investment; GSP = Growth and Structure of Production; HN = Health and Nutrition; HR = Human Resources as well as Poverty Related Concepts; RD = Rural Development; UD = Urban Development; Financial = Economic Transactions, Aid, and Financial Sector activity Source: World Bank Documents in Appendix I

221

• CG assetCG liability • ;

C IT assetCIT liability •

GCI liability •

G SP assetG SP liability

HN assetHN liability

HR assetHR liability

• financial a sse tfinancial liability •

GSI liability

CH7

Key: AP = Agriculture and Food; CE = Commercial Energy; CG = Central Government; CIT = Core International Transaction; GCI = Growth of Consumption and Investment; GSP = Growth and Structure of Production; HN = Health and Nutrition; HR = Human Resources as well as Poverty Related Concepts; RD = Rural Development; UD = Urban Development; Financial = Economic Transactions, Aid, and Financiai Sector activity Source: World Bank Documents in Appendix I

222

• CG assetCG liability # '

• CIT assetCITIiability

GCI asset

G SP assetG SP liability

HN asset

HR assetHR liabiiity

' • UD asset

9 financial a sse tfinancial liability •

UR7

Key: AF = Agriculture and Food; CE = Commercial Energy; CG = Central Government; CIT = Core International Transaction; GCI = Growth of Consumption and Investment; GSP = Growth and Structure of Production; HN = Health and Nutrition; HR = Human Resources as well as Poverty Related Concepts; RD = Rural Development; UD = Urban Development; Financial = Economic Transactions, Aid, and Financial Sector activity Source: World Bank Documents In Appendix I

223

• AF a sse tAF liability

CG a sse tC G liability • '

CIT assetCITIiability •

GCI assetGCI liability

G SP a sse tGSP liability

HN asset

HR asset

e financial a sse tfinancial liability •

COB

Key: AF = Agriculture and Food; CB = Commercial Energy; CG = Central Government; CIT = Core International Transaction; GCI = Growth of Consumption and Investment; GSP = Growth and Structure of Production; HN = Health and Nutrition; HR = Human Resources as well as Poverty Related Concepts; RD = Rural Development; UD = Urban Development; Financial = Economic Transactions, Aid, and Financial Sector activity Source: World Bank Documents in Appendix I

224

• AF asset

• CE a sse tCE liability # ,

CG a sse tCG liability * '

CIT asset

G SP a sse tG SP liability

HN asset

HR liability HR asset

UD asset

financial liability • • financial a sse t

VZ9

Key; AF = Agriculture and Food; CB = Commercial Energy; CG = Central Government; CIT = Core International Transaction; GCI = Growth of Consumption and Investment; GSP = Growth and Structure of Production; HN = Health and Nutrition; HR = Human Resources as weli as Poverty Related Concepts; RD = Rural Development; UD = Urban Development; Financial = Economic Transactions, Aid, and Financial Sector activity Source: World Bank Documents in Appendix I

225

A F liability # , # AF a sse t

CG liability

G SP liability

HN liability

HR liability

financial liability

CG a sse t

e r r a sse t

G SP a sse t

HN a sse t

• HR a sse t

UO asset

financial a ss e t

CR9

Key: AP = Agriculture and Pood; CE = Commercial Energy; CG = Central Government; CIT = Core International Transaction; GCI = Growth of Consumption and Investment; GSP = Growth and Structure of Production; HN = Health and Nutrition; H R = Human Resources as well as Poverty Related Concepts; RD = Rural Development; UD = Urban Development; Financial = Economic Transactions, Aid, and Financial Sector activity Source: World Bank Documents in Appendix I

APPENDIX IVOUTLINE FOR MEASURING COHERENCE WITHIN THE SOCIO-POLITICAL

CONCEPTS DISPLAYED WITHIN THE WORLD BANK'S FORMATIVE THINKING PROCESSES

I. Towards Understanding Social DimensionsA. How does the Bank diagnose social problems and factors

affecting the general population?1. Identifies the constraints on population

such as unemployment,poverty, decreasing incomes, consumption, et al.

2. Represents the level of institutional shortfalls such as weak educational systems and health and nutritional facilities, and analyzes a need for the creation of social services.

3. Identifies urban and rural disparities and equity issues and desegregates implications of the various societal groups, such as, the vulnerable groups within the military, academia, civil service, et al.

B. How does the Bank prescribe social strategy which needs to be adopted in terms of employment, good nutrition, health facilitates, population control, poverty and urban unrest?

1. Analyzes a poverty alleviation program and the issues mitigating the social costs of adjustment.

2. Discusses employment generation and training programs.

3. Discusses the provisions to improve social sector efforts in health and nutrition, family planning, and education.

226

2274. Analyzes equity strategy through credit,

extending access to resources such as credit availability and the equity of access in the institutional settings to items such as free milk to students.

C. How does the Bank reflect on the social impact of economic reform programs?

1. Acknowledges the social cost and offers solutions to mitigate those costs.

2. Analyzes lessons learned from the social impacts of adjustment within each country and similar situations and their possible inclusion in future programs.

3. Discusses improvements in terms of the social structure and living standards provided as a result of reform.

4. Discusses a monitoring program.II. Towards Understanding Political DimensionsA. How does the Bank diagnose political problems in the

country's political environment and the factors affecting societal and governmental structure?

1. Discusses the type of political system and the existence of stability.

2. Analyzes the political environment and the various reactions to economic reform.

3. Discusses governmental institutions, financial and management deficiencies and the promotion of private sector activity and involvement.

B. How does the Bank prescribe political strategy which needs to be adopted in terms of government consensus, popular consensus, government stability and the government's capacity to absorb structural changes and the amount of involvement in the process of reform?

1. Governmental communication to ease transitioncosts and gain national support.

2. Incorporates governmental input into the transitional process.

2283. Analyzes timing, speed, and sequence of

implementation.4. The government's institutional ability and

their commitment to manage and sustain political support are examined.

C. How does the Bank reflect on the politicalconsequences of its economic reform program?

1. Acknowledges the political costs and offers solutions to the cost.

2. Analyzes lessons learned from the political impact within the country or a more similar situation and a possible inclusion in future programs.

3. Analyzes the government's reliance to carry out implementation and effective dialogue.

4. Predicts a possible civil unrest.

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