HOUSING CARRYING CAPACITY APPROACH AS THE BASIC OF INFRASTRUCTURE PLANNING IN BOGOR CITY

I n t e r n a t i o n a l C o n f e r e n c e 2 1 - 2 2 O c t o b e r 2 0 1 3 I TB , B a n d u n g

1

HOUSING CARRYING CAPACITY APPROACH AS THE BASIC OF

INFRASTRUCTURE PLANNING IN BOGOR CITY

Handini PRADHITASARI1, Fernando SITUNGKIR

2, Kartika Haridjono

TJOKRONEGORO3

Abstract

Basically, infrastructure and transportation planning always considering the basic

needs and regional economic development. In recent years, the economic growth in

big cities has given the spillover effects to their surroundings. In the urban

constellation of Jabodetabekjur, Jakarta is the core city, which is supported by its

neighbor cities, including Bogor. The most distinctive impact of Jakarta and Bogor

economic developing corridor is population growth, especially urban community or

commuter. This has been implied in the housing needs as well as its supporting

facilities. Nevertheless, the growing population is limited by the land capacity. The

availability of land for the sake of housing, roads and other infrastructures has to be

basic consideration for planning. Thus, we need to figure the real carrying capacity in

order to sustaining the urban land for years. In Bogor City Spatial Plan (RTRW Kota

Bogor), it is stated the build area for housing and its facilities in a term called

carrying capacity, in this paper examines the carrying capacity for housing needs.

The planned area for housing (carrying capacity) is 52% of the total area. This will

be used as a threshold for the population projection. Therefore, Bogor City is trying

to provide the housing people’s need as well as to achieve its vision as a service and

trade city with environmental orientation. This paper examines thecarrying capacity

as a tool for housing planning in order to achieve the optimal level of service and

controlling the city’s development.

Keywords: carrying capacity, housing, population, projection, service

1. Introduction

Rapid population growth in the city of Jakarta was no longer able to be accomodated

by the availability of land for housing, so that the land for housing becomes very

limited at the very expensive rate. At particular point, this condition will lead the

urbans to look forward such a proper place to live outside Jakarta. Jakarta as the

main core of economic activities attract demand from its surrounding in form of

1,2,3

Graduate Student in Infrastructure and Transportation System, Planning Department Bandung

Institute of Technology, Indonesia, [email protected], [email protected],

[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]




2

worker as well as land. Eventually, the movement from Jakarta to its surrounding has

created a phenomenon called suburbanization. It is simply defined as the outward

growth of urban development which may engulf surrounding towns into a larger

urban agglomeration.

The commuters’ movement from the fringe area to the urban center (esp. center

business district/CBD) in big cities was triggered by some factors, such as housing

development along the hinterland, and the attractiveness of the CBDs which lead to

agglomeration. This is implied to the urban internal structure (Bryant in Rohjan,

2003). In the term of transportation, comuting phenomenon is occured because of the

spatial mismatch. Miharja (2005) described spatial mismatch as a spatial structure

character related to the locational connection between workplace and livingplace

which caused a big trip volume. In the case of Metropolitan Jabodetabek, Jakarta is

the development and economic core, and surounded by satelite cities. One of the

most correlated city to Jakarta is Bogor. Bogor has a very distinguished role as a

satelite city or buffer area.

Bogor city has been developed as a buffer area for Jakarta which lead the city to the

more challenges. The city itself has a limited land for housing, industries, services,

and other social – economic activities. But because of its well connected access to

Jakarta (by highway and railway), this city keeps attracting more people to come.

Rapid population along with the economic growth implies to the high demand of the

basic infrastructure and its supporting facilities, including housing. Housing plays a

central role in urban planning, since land use for housing has the largest proportion in

urban area. Thus, land availability for the residential use is one of the most critical

element in urban planning. Moreover, this element could be used as a threshold to

determine the portion of city’s build up area and development planning.

In recent years, Bogor City has a tremendous changes in terms of transportation,

economy and spatial aspects. As a trading city, where trade and activities related has

a strategic development position, Bogor City has to strengthened its infrastructure

services to coupe with overflowing demand. Demands from both internal growth and

Jakarta’s spillover need to be fullfilled as well as to preserved the environment. The

city of Bogor also has an important role in stabilizing the surrounding environment

and to preserve its natural resources. On a national scale, the city is also chosen as a

pilot project developing the Green City Program (P2KH) of the Ministry of Public

Works to create action plans green city. Moreover, in the international forum, Bogor

city was declared to be green city (Al Khaer) by the Moeslem Nations.

Those facts implied that the city is faced with so much burdensome factors that

pushing it to the limit, while there is an implicit task from the national government as

well as international forum to keep its area preserved. Therefore, the physical

development of Bogor City has to be maintained as balance as possible along with

the environmental preservation efforts by using the carrying capacity element. Bogor

spatial plan (RTRW Kota Bogor) has stated that the build area for housing and its

facilities is 52% of the total area. This proportion will be used as a threshold for the


3

population projection and to determine whether the area has met their limits. Later,

we will use this population projection to distribute population density and estimate

the housing needs and its supply throughout the Bogor City.

The phenomenon of economic and social problem in Bogor City indicates the lack of

clear awareness on the carrying capacity. In the face of capital-led mechanism in the

city development realm, which focuses in commercial and trading fulfillment,

carrying capacity approach is crucial to clearly draw the limit of urban development.

This paper discusses the development of land carrying capacity approach as the

potential tool to control urban development level in order to maintain acceptable

housing and infrastructure level of service.

2. Literature Review

2.1 Suburbanization

Suburbanization can be defined as the outward growth of urban development which

may engulf surrounding village and towns into a larger urban agglomeration

(coolgeography.co.uk). According to the Ptáček and Szczyrba (2007),

suburbanization is understood as a spatial overspill of a city beyond its limit into the

open landscape and new activities. The location of new activities is focused in the

territory of metropolitan area outside of the compactly built-up area. Suburbanization

is a very complex and conditioned process and to the most visible changes on the

face of cities. It has two main functional forms: residential and commercial

suburbanization and also two main morphological forms: regulated suburbanization

(smart growth) and unregulated suburbanization (urban sprawl).

Jakarta is the most suburbanized mega – city in South East Asia (Murakami, et al,

2003). Since the 1990s, the population of Jakarta’s suburbs has surpassed that of its

metropolitan core (Hudalah & Firman, 2012). Similar to other Asian mega cities,

Jakarta peripheral zones have been pushed by urbanization much beyond their

previous extents and have spilled into rural village or towns surrounding the cities.

Large scale development has become a major feature of Jakarta’s suburbanization.

Past studies conducted on Jakarta’s suburbanization generally restricted their scope

of analysis to land development lying within the formal boundaries of the Jakarta

Metropolitan Area (Jabodetabek), consists of Jakarta as the metropolitan core,

surrounded by its inner suburbs including kotas (municipalities) and kabupatens

(districts) adjacent to Jakarta, which are also called Bodetabek. The total area of

Jabodetabek is 5.897,52 km2.


4

Figure 1 Jakarta Metropolitan Region

Source : Modified from Hudalah, 2012 and Murakami 2003

The growth has been rapid over the past several decades, causing rural – to – urban

conversion of large areas surrounding the cities, uncontrolled development, housing

shortages, and expansion of squatter settlements (Murakami, et.al, 2003). The

process shows that the innermost zone of each city was the most populous, as it

continues to be the center of maximum socio-economic activity. This zone became a

magnet for people from outside the metropolitan area (Cadwaller, 1001; Morril, 1992

in Murakami, et al (2003). Later, the urbanization process of innermost zone helped

to expand the urban areas and increase the diversity of land use on the fringes of the

metropolitan areas.

2.2 Population Projection and Carrying Capacity

Expansion of urban areas to the fringes of the city also influenced the distribution of

population density. Therefore, we need to project the population trend in terms of

growth and distribution. Projection is not a prediction or forecast, but is an indication

of future demographic change buit on assumptions about future patterns in fertility

(births), mortality (Deaths), and migration (BPS, BAPPENAS and UNFPA, 2005).

The population projection is very useful to planning. Besides controling the

population density, projection is oriented to provide citizen services and improving

economic condition. Eventually, is aimed to meet an ideal condition, when level of

service of the infrastructure and transportation is sufficient to the communities.

To get into the balance condition, there is a need to determine an optimal scale which

is obtained through infrastructure planning. In analyzing optimization scale, the most

fundamental thing to do is determining carrying capacity element. Carrying capacity


5

is a critical factor in planning, dealing with environmental condition and available

resources. On the Regulation of Indonesian Environmental Ministry no. 17 year 2009

carrying capacity is the ability of the environment to support human and other

creatures’ life. Moreover, in the context of sustainability, carrying capacity is the size

of the population that can be supported indefinitely upon the available resources and

services of supporting natural, social, human, and built capital

(http://www.sustainablemeasures.com/node/33).

Figure 1

Visualization of Carrying Capacity Curve

Land use and land capacity determine the the optimal number of family or individu

who are capable to stay in a new region, or the maximum number whom can be held

to live in the previously developed area. In fact, population growth in a city keeps

increasing and tends to surpass its carrying capacity, especially in an emerging city.

This is implied to the increasing demand of land for housing and its supporting

infrastructures. Hence, to estimate demand for housing is such an imperative task and

the very basic tool to determine the carrying capacity.

Carrying capacity of the environment in the context of the availability of land for

housing is included: (1) determination of the ability of the allocation of land for

housing space utilization and (2) calculation of population projections and land space

requirements. Later in this paper, housing demand projection will be derived from

some scenarios based on assumption and proportion of housing types, both vertical

and horizontal in accordance with the city spatial plan. All these steps are taken as

the basic for other infrastructure planning in order to meet the optimum level of

service that a city could carry.

2.3 Housing

Based on Law no 1 circa 2011 about Housing and Residential area, housing is a

group of home which is part of the settlement in both urban and rural, are equipped

within frastructure, facilities, and public utilities attempted to achieve decent

housing. Regarding to its natural as a primary need, housing has a close relationship

City

Population

CC

1

2

Now N+T1 t

http://www.sustainablemeasures.com/node/33


6

with the development of a city. According to Sumantri (1986) Several housing

factors may influence development city, in terms of its physical condition,

environmental, and locational.

Housing needs could be seen by the potential demand and effective demand.

Potential demand means the demanded house based on the number of population

who needs it, regardless their affordability. Meanwhile, effective demand is the

magnitude of the housing potential demand considering their affordability. followed

by a review of the needs of his people, which can be reflected in the amount of

income allocated to housing sector (Danial, 1988). Furthermore, scopes of housing

needs are the quantity and type of house (related to price, size, location and facilities)

The existing housing needs is heavily influenced by factors, including: Housing

Construction to meet the housing demand from households which has yet a home at

this time, and the improvement for sub-standard house. Meanwhile, future housing

needs is affected by the number of population, migration, household size, housing

production and obsolences.

The Regulation of Ministry of Public Housing no. 12 circa 2012 about

Implementation of the Housing and Settlement Areas with Balanced Residential

Arrangement has regulated residential development based on the principle of benefit,

fair, equitable, togetherness, self-confidence, affordability and environmental

sustainability. Using a standard ratio of 1: 2: 3, which is considered to be

proportional, where the construction of luxury housing units type 1 have followed the

construction of medium housing units type 2 and 3 units are simple types. Location

of residential areas has to be in line with land use plans which has been settled in the

Regional Spatial Plan local or other spatial planning documents established by the

local regulation.

3. Methodology

3.1. Population Projection Analysis

There are several methods and formulation order to project the number of population

in a certain area. Each method is implied regarding to time and causal factor, such as

economic condition, social and culture matter. Due to the characteristic and

population trend, it is revealed that Bogor City has an exponential trend, which is

tend to increase and slowly remained constant into the asymptote. The asymptote is

the indicator for which we desired the population has no longer grow (diminishing)

due to limit of carrying capacity. Carrying capacity is a measurement to determine

whether a city or region could carry its burden, regarding to is land and water

availability. Hence, the population projection is conducted by using the double

exponential method. Double exponential method was chosen because its approach to

project population aggregately during the desired time period.

The mathematical formulation of double exponential projection is:


7

………………………………………………………………………….(1)

…………………………………………………………………………...…(2)

……………………………...………………………….(3)

Where:

Pn = number of population in projected year (estimated year)

P≈ = threshold for a accepted number of population

a, b = coefficient

t = time

This method allow us to carry out the threshold or limit of the accepted population in

the area, this is what we called carrying capacity. In population projection, threshold

is determined by the supply of land availability for housing combined with housing

development scenario which stated in Bogor City Spatial.

Along with the double exponential method, this research also using a linear

arithmetic method to predict population acceleration in negative way. This method is

going to be implied in the overcapacity area, which population has surpass the

threshold or its carrying capacity. After we determine the population projection

through its carrying capacity, the next step is to analyze the housing needs using the

basic needs standard.

Table 1. Bogor City Housing Scenario Based on Spatial Plan in 2011-2031 Scenario Proportion of Horizontal

Housing Type

Proportion of vertical

Housing Type

District

1 100% 0 All district

100m2 house 60%

200m2 house 30%

400m2 house 10%

2 90% 10% All district

100m2 house 60%

200m2 house 30%

400m2 house 10%

Assumed that a vertical

house has a density of 400

person/hectare

3 80% 20% All district

100m2 house 60%

200m2 house 30%

400m2 house 10%

Assumed that a vertical


person/hectare

4 80% 20% North Bogor,

Central Bogor and

Tanah Sareal

90% 10% South Bogor, East

Bogor

100m2 house 60%

200m2 house 30%

400m2 house 10%

Assumed that vertical


persons/hectare

Source : Bogor City Spatial Plan in 2011-2031


8

3.2. Analysis of Supply and Demand of Housing

This analysis is relies on the fact that housing is an important element to be fulfilled

as a basic needs for the citizen. Generally, the method that is used to analyze demand

in housing and settlement of Bogor City is descriptive comparative by comparing the

land demand and supply considering the environmental carrying capacity, and

minimum service standard.

4. Area Description

4.1. Physical Aspect and Topography

Geographically, the city of Bogor lies at the 190 m - 330 m above sea level. Bogor

city is located in the center of Bogor regency and located very close to the State

Capital with a distance about 60km. It is a strategic potential for economic growth

and development and services, the national center for industry, commerce, transport,

communications, and tourism. Bogor City has an area of 11,850 hectares.

Administrative Bogor consists of 6 districts, 31 sub districts and 37 villages, 210 sub

villages, 623 RW, 2712 RT and surrounded by a region Bogor Regency is as follows:

(1) North Side adjacent with Kemang District, Bojong Gede, and Talbot District, (2)

East Side adjacent with Talbot District and Ciawi District (3) West Side adjacent

with Darmaga District and Ciomas District (4) South Side adjacent with Cijeruk

District and Caringin District

Climatic conditions in the Bogor City average temperature of each month 26 'C with

a minimum temperature of 21.8' C with the highest temperature of 30.4 'C. Humidity

70%, the average rainfall per year is about 3500-4000 mm with the heaviest rainfall

in December and January. Bogor city tilt ranged between 0-15% and a small sloped

area between 15-30%. The type of soil in nearly all regions are reddish brown with

Lotosil effective soil depth of more than 90 cm with soil texture is smooth and is

rather sensitive to erosion. For more complete can be seen in Table 4.3.

Table 2. Slope Land Bogor City No. District Slope Land ( HA )

0 - 2 % 2 - 15 % 15 - 25 % 15 - 40 % More than 40 %

1 South Bogor 169,1 1.418,40 1.053,89 350,37 89,24

2 East Bogor 182,30 722,62 56,03 44,25 9,80

3 North Bogor 137,85 1.565,65 - 68,00 0,50

4 Central Bogor 125,44 560,47 - 117,54 9,55

5 West Bogor 618,40 2.502,14 - 153,81 10,65

6 Tanah Sereal 530,85 1.321,91 - 31,24 -

TOTAL 1.763,94 6.993,95 1.109,92 765,21 119,74 Sumber: Bogor City in Number 2011


9

Figure 3 Administration Map of Bogor City

Source: http://www.kotabogor.go.id

http://www.kotabogor.go.id/


10

Bogor city divides its area into what so called under sub-district level to order and

arrange the spatial planning, namely Urban Zone Sub-Division (Sub Bagian Wilayah

Kota). The Urban Zone Sub-Division is a part of zonation unit of city that classified

based on the similarity of its function, such as the similarity of land use, the presence

of its own central, feasibility of access, the boundaries either physically or

administratively. There are 9 Urban Zone Sub-Divisions in Bogor City, include

Mekarwangi, Bubulak, Menteng, South Tanah Baru, Pamoyanan, Genteng, North

Tanah Baru, Cibogor, and Katulampa.

Table 4. Area of Sub Division Zone in Bogor City

No

Sub-Division Zone

(BWK) Area (Ha) Proportion

1 Mekarwangi 1.501 12,56%

2 Bubulak 1.688 14,12%

3 Menteng 1.688 14,12%

4 Tanah Baru Utara 802 6,71%

5 Cobogor 801 6,70%

6 Tanah Baru Selatan 1.305 10,92%

7 Katulampa 1.445 12,09%

8 Pamoyanan 1.217 10,18%

9 Genteng 1.508 12,61%

Bogor City 11.955 100,00% Source : Bogor City Spatial Plan in 2011-2031

Bogor City has a tremendous changes, especially regarding to the city quality. In an

independent report, it is stated that the urban quality of Bogor has been depleted. The

diminishing quality of the city was shown by three indicators; transportation,

economy and spatial aspects. Like other emerging city in Indonesia, Bogor City also

faced some spatial issues dealing with land use changes. This implies as the

consequences of policy to determine Bogor as a trading and services city. Therefore,

carrying capacity measurement has to be settled to direct the demands to the

underdeveloped area and to control or reduce development in the the overcapacity

area to keep the city’s level of service.

5. Analysis

5.1. Estimation of Carrying Capacity of Bogor City

In determining the limit of Bogor City population, this study mostly refers to The

Spatial Plan of The City of Bogor in 2011-2031. The Spatial Plan allocates 80% of

the land into the built area while the others are allocated into the green open space

area. The 80% of the area with approximation of 9.48 Ha, are also allocated into the

residential, non-residential area and transportation space following the proportion of

65%, 20%, and 15%. These proportions are assumed based on the city plan and the


11

expected future condition. Based on those assumptions, the proportion of land

development can be given following in the table below.

Table 3. Estimation of Carrying Capacity of Land Space in Bogor City No Sub-

District

Area

(km2)

Green

Open

Space

Built

Area

Allocation on Built Area (80%)

Total Residential Non-residential Transportation

20% 80% 65% 20% 15%

1 South Bogor 3081 616 2464.8 1602.12 492.96 369.72

2 East Bogor 1015 203 812 527.80 162.40 121.80

3 North Bogor 1772 354 1417.6 921.44 283.52 212.64

4 Central

Bogor

813 163 650.4 422.76 130.08 97.56

5 West Bogor 3285 657 2628 1708.20 525.60 394.20

6 Tanah

Sareal

1884 377 1506.2 979.68 301.44 226.08

Total 11850 2370 9480 6162 1896 1422

Percentage of Total Area 20 80 52 16 12

Based on the estimation of carrying capacity that are showed by table above, the

development of residential area should be planned not to be more than 6,164 Ha or

equal to 52% of total area of Bogor City, so the other remaining land can be allocated

into non-residential function, such as industry, commercial and service, and

transportation. Beside of that, it is important to persistently keep the green open

spaces remain at 20% of total city area or equal to 2,730 Ha like stated in Law no. 26

circa 2007 about The Spatial Plan. Later, this 52% of land are called the carrying

capacity for residential area.

In this study, the residential carrying capacity are acquired by subtracting the planned

residential area with the existing built residential area. The difference of these both

will be used as the reference to estimate the population that are going to be carried by

the remaining land of Bogor City which are developed to be the residential area. As

the existing built residential area of Bogor City are 4,155.79 Ha, the remaining area

that can be used to develop residential area, or this remaining land later can be

viewed as the existing carrying capacity if there are no land use shifting happened

until 2031, are 2,008.21 Ha.

After estimating the amount of remaining land available to be developed into

residential area, it is important to estimate the demands that will fill these land. To

estimate these demands, this study use the population projection methods from 2011

to 2031. The demands in this case are the sum of population that later are assumed as

the starting point to estimate the amount of future house by using the assumption of

family size of Bogor City while one house is lived by one family only. As explained

in previous section, this study uses 4 scenarios to develop the residential area on each

sub-district based on the housing type, either horizontal or vertical type.

In developing the residential area based on Bogor City carrying capacity, the

scenario 4 is then chosen based on its combination of large proportion of vertical and


12

horizontal housing type. The horizontal housing that are going to be developed are

80% of the remaining area following the proportion of 1:2:3 with 1 for the large-size

house (400 m2), 2 for the medium-size house (200 m

2), and 3 for the small-size house

(100 m2). Meanwhile, the vertical housing are 20% of the same remaining area, so

then the calculation of each housing area are now determined in this table below.

Table 4. The Estimation of Carrying Capacity of Bogor City Based on Housing

Development Housing CC 6164 Ha

Existing 5400 Ha

Remaining 764 Ha

Large

House

Medium

House

Small

House

Total

80% Horizontal

(Ha)

Ha 102 204 306 611

m2 1,018,667 2,037,333 3,056,000 6,112,000

611.2 Ha unit 2.547 10,187 30,560 43,293

person 12,733 50,933 152,800 216,467

20% Vertical

(Ha) 152.8

1 Ha = 400

persons

61,120 persons

Initial CC horizontal + vertical

Existing

Population

967,398.00

Actual CC 1,244,987,67

From the table above, it is known that the size of population can be carried by Bogor

City capacity are 1,244,985 persons. Further in this study, the result of the population

limitation can be used as we conduct the population projection analysis to acquire the

condition about the population amount over the carrying capacity. The modified

exponential and double exponential analysis are used in this study to project the

population.

5.2 The Case of Population Projection over the Carrying Capacity

Before discussing the population projection of each sub-district to their carrying

capacity, it is important to know the population projection of Bogor City to its

carrying capacity. By using the double exponential analysis, we can estimate the total

population of Bogor City in 2013 to 2033. The assumptions are used to use this

methods are: (1) the increasing of Bogor City population happens in one certain time

and (2) there is a carrying capacity that limits the increasing of population. By using

this assumption and applying the methods, it is known that in 2033 the population is

1,178,311 persons. By comparing these numbers to Bogor City carrying capacity, we

can conclude that the population of Bogor City in 2030 are still allowed to be carried

by the city.


13

Figure 4. Projected Population of Bogor City

In this section, some cases of comparing the population projection to carrying

capacity will be presented in order to gain the insight of what the planner should be

doing about it. First of all, the insight about the general conditions of population

projection are needed to know the population description of Bogor City. By using the

scenario 4, the carrying capacity of each sub-district can be presented in the

following table below.

Table 5. Carrying Capacity of Sub-Districts in Bogor City Sub-District Planned Population

Carrying Capacity

(in persons)

Total of

Population in

2011 (in persons)

Actual Carrying

Capacity (in

persons)

Predicted

Population in

2033 (in persons)

80% of Horizontal and 20% of Vertical Housing

North Bogor -63133 173732 186170 185501

Central Bogor -23091 103830 85415 87841

Tanah Sareal -39757 195742 197937 197937

90% of Horizontal and 10% of Vertical Housing

South Bogor 235336 184336 323696 225335

East Bogor -11002 96617 106638 105315

West Bogor 203084 214826 345129 267780

From table above, we can classify the sub-districts into three group: (1) sub-districts

whose population are carrying capacity, (2) sub-districts whose population are

balance with carrying capacity, and (3) sub districts whose population are over

carrying capacity. The members of group 1 are North Bogor, South Bogor, East

Bogor, and East Bogor Sub-District. The member of group 2 is Tanah Sareal Sub-

District, and the member of group 3 is Central Bogor Sub-District. As the sub-

districts whose population are under carrying capacity, North Bogor, South Bogor,

East Bogor, and West Bogor Sub-District are allowed to develop housing like the

plan which is explained in previous table, while the development of housing in

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

201

2

201

3

201

4

201

5

201

6

201

7

201

8

201

9

202

0

202

1

202

2

202

3

202

4

202

5

202

6

202

7

202

8

202

9

203

0

203

1

203

2

203

3

Population Projection Carrying Capacity


14

Tanah Sareal Sub-Districts are already full enough and the development of housing

in Central Bogor Sub-District are better to be decreased.

Figure 5. Population Projection of South Bogor Sub-District

Figure 6. Population Projection of Tanah Sareal Sub-District

90,000

92,000

94,000

96,000

98,000

100,000

102,000

104,000

106,000

108,000

201

2

201

3

201

4

201

5

201

6

201

7

201

8

201

9

202

0

202

1

202

2

202

3

202

4

202

5

202

6

202

7

202

8

202

9

203

0

203

1

203

2

203

3


195,500

196,000

196,500

197,000

197,500

198,000

198,500

201

3

201

4

201

5

201

6

201

7

201

8

201

9

202

0

202

1

202

2

202

3

202

4

202

5

202

6

202

7

202

8

202

9

203

0

203

1

203

2

203

3



15

Figure 1. Population Projection of Central Bogor (Over Carrying Capacity)

Like the population projection of the sub-districts previously presented, the modified

and double exponential regression are also used to project the population in each

Urban Zone Sub-Divisions. The result is that they can be also classified into 3

groups: (1) the Urban Zone Sub-Division whose population projection are under the

carrying capacity, (2) the Urban Zone Sub-Divisions whose population projection are

the same with the carrying capacity, and (3) the Urban Zone Sub-Divisions whose

population projection are over the carrying capacity. The Urban Zone Sub-Division

of Mekarwangi, Bubulak, Menteng, South Tanah Baru, Pamoyanan, and Gentengare

grouped into group 1 while the Urban Zone Sub-Division of Cibogor, North Tanah

Baru, and Katulampa are grouped into group 3. By the results of the population

projection of the Urban Zone Sub-Divisions relative to their carrying capacity, it was

later known how to develop the residential area and its supported facilities.

5.3 Further Housing Development based on Population Projection

By using residential development in applying the function of carrying capacity,

further analysis will use the result of previous analysis to develop the residential

planning in Bogor City. Basically, the residential development are feasible to be

conducted in Bogor City because generally the population in the end of projection

year are still under the carrying capacity yet doing this is not as easy as developing it.

By reviewing the population projection in the scope of Urban Zone Sub-Division, it

is known that 3 of 9 sub-divisions’ population by the end of 2033 are over their

carrying capacity. It makes the residential development in this sub-divisions become

impossible or even the reduction of existing residential areas are ideally needed. By

knowing that the Urban Zone Sub-Division of Cibogor is located in Central Bogor

Sub-District which become the center of many kinds activities in Bogor City, it is

logically accepted why the explosion of housing development are happened in this

sub-division, referring to the common phenomenon in Indonesia cities which all

activities are mostly concentrated in the center of the city and followed by the

development of facilities and it creates the attraction factor that makes people move

75,000

80,000

85,000

90,000

95,000

100,000

105,000

201

3

201

4

201

5

201

6

201

7

201

8

201

9

202

0

202

1

202

2

202

3

202

4

202

5

202

6

202

7

202

8

202

9

203

0

203

1

203

2

203

3



16

towards the center and later built their home there, either the well managed

residential area or the uncontrolled poor managed residential area.

Facing the facts that the population in this sub-division by the year of 2033 are over

its carrying capacities and also the presence of some facilities that support the

existing residential area are already there, the reduction of residential area in this

sub-division will face some obstacles which include the impossibility to reduce, or

technically to destroy, the residential areas or the housing structures, the difficulty to

restrict community movement to this sub-divisions since they are located in city

center, and so on. The feasible actions that can be accounted as the solutions to these

obstacles are the restriction of potential development that can stimulate the

residential development in this sub-division and the transfer of housing demand that

arise from this sub-divisions to the other sub-divisions.

Figure 2. Population Projection of The Urban Zone Sub-Division of Genteng

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

201

2

201

3

201

4

201

5

201

6

201

7

201

8

201

9

202

0

202

1

202

2

202

3

202

4

202

5

202

6

202

7

202

8

202

9

203

0

203

1

203

2

203

3

F CC


17

Figure 3. Population projection of The Urban Zone Sub-Division of Bubulak

Figure 4. Population Projection of The Urban Zone Sub-Divison of Pamoyanan

The residential development area used in this study use the comparison 1:2:3 of

house size. The result of housing demand projection shows that in 2033, the demand

of housing are approximately 895 units for house type 1, 1,789 units for house type

2, and 2,684 units for house type 3. These numbers are including the excess demands

for housing in the Urban Zone Sub-Division of Cibogor, while the housing

development in Urban Zone Sub-Division of North Tanah Baru and Katulampa are

not conducted. By knowing that there are 3 sub-divisions that have so much

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

201

2

201

3

201

4

201

5

201

6

201

7

201

8

201

9

202

0

202

1

202

2

202

3

202

4

202

5

202

6

202

7

202

8

202

9

203

0

203

1

203

2

203

3

F CC

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000

200,000

201

2

201

3

201

4

201

5

201

6

201

7

201

8

201

9

202

0

202

1

202

2

202

3

202

4

202

5

202

6

202

7

202

8

202

9

203

0

203

1

203

2

203

3

F CC


18

remaining space for population growth (Genteng, Bubulak, and Pamoyanan), it is a

possibility then to do the population growth potential transfer to these sub-divisions.

Doing such transfer are basically possible but there are some conditions to be done

first, such as the restriction of any development that can generate the population

attraction into the city center and transfer this attraction into the 3 sub-divisions. The

transfer of the attraction can be applied by dispersing the city activities, especially to

these 3 sub-divisions along with the development of its supporting facilities.

6. Conclusion

Population growth is a major consideration that influence the decision making in

urban planning, later as the effect of activities developments. Infrastructure planning

as the supporting system to the urban planning are needed because it has an ability to

develop the infrastructure in terms of what, where, and when, it can support urban

activities. As the population continuously grow, the urban planning will someday

face the new challenge that is the overpopulation. Overpopulation in this case refers

to the conditions when the population of the city are excesses it capacity. Later, in

this study, the overpopulation becomes a new concern to develop a new perspective

in infrastructure planning. The proposal of carrying capacity in infrastructure

planning comes as a result of the further consideration to overpopulation problem.

By comparing the population projection of sub-districts and urban zone sub-divisions

of Bogor City, this study conclude that there are some impossible population

projection that later become a consideration on further infrastructure development.

The population projection in 2033 of Sub-District of Central Bogor shows that it will

face the overpopulation, while the others still have spaces to be developed. The same

things are also happened at the scope of urban zone sub-divison where 3 of 9 of sub-

divisions are facing the overpopulation relative to its carrying capacity in 2033. As

this study use the housing development as the tools to determine the carrying

capacity, restriction of housing development in the overpopulated area are needed to

control its number. Potential solution are founded when there are 3 subdivisions have

many remaining space that can accommodate the excess population. Transfer of

population by transfer the activities from the city center along with its supporting

infrastructures are proposed in this study in order to accommodate the population

growth and provide the house for them to live in.

Acknowledgement

First and foremost, the writers wish to thank all the rest of committee who supported

this study, especially Bapak Miming Miharja and Ibu Harkunti Pertiwi Rahayu for

being the part of this study. Also thank you to all the fellow participants of Class

Infrastructures Planning Studio of 2013 who have been amazing help throughout

undertaking activity of data collection in Bogor city. This study is a part of the main

project of Class Infrastructure Planning Studio of 2013 titled “Infrastructure and

Transportation Planning of Bogor City in 2013-2033”, which was financed by

Bandung Institute of Technology.


19

References

Danial dkk, 1988, Kemiskinan dan Perumahan di Bandar:Peranan Pemerintah dan

Penyelesaian, Amazon.com, viewed 27 september 2013.

Hudalah, D., J. Woltjer, T. Firman & D. Viantari (2012) Contesting the centrality of

Jakarta: Have industrial centres promoted deconcentration? Paper presented at

the32nd International geographical Congress, Cologne, 26-30 August 2012.

Hudalah, D. &T. Firman (2012) Beyond property: Industrial estates and post-

suburban transformation in Jakarta Metropolitan Region. Cities 29(1) 40–48.

Miharja, Miming. 2005. Eksplorasi Empirik terhadap Fenomena Spatial

Mismatch sebagai Penyebab Masalah Transportasi di Wilayah Bandung Raya.

KK Rekayasa Sistem Wilayah dan Kota. Departemen Teknik Planologi. Institut

Teknologi Bandung.

Murakami, A. et al (2005) Trends in urbanization and patterns of land use in the

Asian mega cities Jakarta, Bangkok, and Metro Manila. Landscape and Urban

Planning 70: 251–259.

Ptáček, P and Szczyrba, Z. (2007). Current Suburbanisation Trends in The Czech

Republic And Spatial Transformation Of Retail. Revija za geografijo 1-2, 2007, 55-

65

Regulation of Ministry of Housing Affair No. 12 Year 2012 in Implementation of

Housing and Residential Area with Balanced Settlement

Regulation of Indonesian Environmental Ministry no. 17 year 2009 in Guidelines on

the Determination of Environmental Carrying Capacity in Regional Spatial Planning

Rohjan, J. 2003. Investigasi Model Ridesharing Program untuk Kawasan

Perumahan di Kawasan Pinggiran Kota Bandung. Tesis Program Magister

Transportasi. Institut Teknologi Bandung.

Republic of Indonesia, Law No. 1 Year 2011 in Housing and Residential Area

Regional Planning and Development Agency. 2012. Bogor City Spatial Plan 2011 -

2031. Bappeda Kota bogor

Statistic Central Agency, Bogor City in Figure 2011

Sumatri, P. S. 1986, Kebijakan Pembangunan Perumahan dalam Skala Besar, Prisma

15(5), Bandung.


20

http://www.coolgeography.co.uk/Alevel/AQA/Year%2013/World%20Cities/Suburba

nisation/Suburbanisation.htm accessed Saturday, 5th of October 2013

http://www.kotabogor.go.id

http://www.coolgeography.co.uk/Alevel/AQA/Year%2013/World%20Cities/Suburbanisation/Suburbanisation.htm

http://www.coolgeography.co.uk/Alevel/AQA/Year%2013/World%20Cities/Suburbanisation/Suburbanisation.htm

http://www.kotabogor.go.id/

HOUSING CARRYING CAPACITY APPROACH AS THE BASIC OF INFRASTRUCTURE PLANNING IN BOGOR CITY

Documents

Transcript of HOUSING CARRYING CAPACITY APPROACH AS THE BASIC OF INFRASTRUCTURE PLANNING IN BOGOR CITY