Global Aging: Emerging Challenges
25
THE PARDEE PAPERS / No. 6 / August 2009 Global Aging: Emerging Challenges Alexandra Crampton
Transcript of Global Aging: Emerging Challenges
THE PARDEE PAPERS / No. 6 / August 2009
Global Aging: EmergingChallenges
Alexandra Crampton
Global Aging: Emerging Challenges
Alexandra Crampton
THE PARDEE PAPERS / No. 6 / August 2009
The
Par
dee P
aper
s ser
ies f
eatu
res w
orki
ng p
aper
s by
Pard
ee C
ente
r Fel
low
s and
ot
her i
nvite
d au
thor
s. Pa
pers
in th
is se
ries e
xplo
re c
urre
nt a
nd fu
ture
cha
lleng
es b
y an
ticip
atin
g th
e pa
thw
ays t
o hu
man
pro
gres
s, hu
man
dev
elop
men
t, an
d hu
man
w
ell-b
eing
. Thi
s ser
ies i
nclu
des p
aper
s on
a w
ide
rang
e of
topi
cs, w
ith a
spec
ial
emph
asis
on in
terd
iscip
linar
y pe
rspe
ctiv
es a
nd a
dev
elop
men
t orie
ntat
ion.
Serie
s Edi
tor:
Prof
esso
r Adi
l Naj
am
The
Fre
deric
k S.
Par
dee
Cen
ter f
or th
e St
udy
of th
e Lo
nger
-Ran
ge F
utur
e at
B
osto
n U
nive
rsity
con
vene
s and
con
duct
s int
erdi
scip
linar
y, p
olic
y-re
leva
nt, a
nd
futu
re-o
rient
ed re
sear
ch th
at c
an c
ontr
ibut
e to
long
-ter
m im
prov
emen
ts in
the
hu
man
con
ditio
n. T
hrou
gh it
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gram
s of r
esea
rch,
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licat
ions
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eve
nts,
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e Pa
rdee
Cen
ter s
eeks
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entif
y, a
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e, a
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nhan
ce th
e lo
ng-t
erm
pot
en-
tial f
or h
uman
pro
gres
s, in
all
its v
ario
us d
imen
sions
.
The
Fre
deric
k S.
Par
dee
Cen
ter f
or th
e St
udy
of th
e Lo
nger
-Ran
ge F
utur
eB
osto
n U
nive
rsity
Pard
ee H
ouse
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ay S
tate
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osto
n, M
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chus
etts
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ax: 6
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dee
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ail:
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ee@
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er p
hoto
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h by
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urdo
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ws
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esse
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er r
epre
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e of
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or(s
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cess
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ws o
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deri
ck S
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nger
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utur
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oduc
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e Pa
rdee
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ter
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ent a
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e ra
nge
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ersp
ecti
ves
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h th
e in
tent
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oste
ring
wel
l-inf
orm
ed d
ialo
gue
on p
olic
ies a
nd is
sues
crit
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to h
uman
de
velo
pmen
t and
the
long
er-r
ange
futu
re.
Prod
uced
by
Bos
ton
Uni
vers
ity C
reat
ive
Serv
ices
©
200
9 Tr
uste
es o
f Bos
ton
Uni
vers
ity
Prin
ted
on re
cycle
d pa
per
0809
984
125
Rece
nt P
ublic
atio
ns
The
Pard
ee P
aper
s se
ries
Glo
bal A
ging
: Em
ergi
ng C
halle
nges
Ale
xand
ra C
ram
pton
(No.
6),
Aug
ust 2
009
Man
agin
g H
azar
dous
Che
mic
als:
Long
er-R
ange
Cha
lleng
esH
enrik
Sel
in (N
o. 5
), M
arch
200
9
Beyo
nd G
DP:
The
Nee
d fo
r New
Mea
sure
s of P
rogr
ess
Rob
ert C
osta
nza,
Mau
reen
Har
t, St
ephe
n Po
sner
, Joh
n Ta
lber
th
(No.
4),
Janu
ary
2009
Doe
s Nuc
lear E
nerg
y H
ave a
Fut
ure?
Moe
ed Y
usuf
(No.
3),
Nov
embe
r 200
8
21st
Cen
tury
Tra
de A
gree
men
ts: Im
plic
atio
ns fo
r Lon
g-Ru
n D
evelo
pmen
t Pol
icy
Rac
hel D
enae
Thr
ashe
r and
Kev
in P
. Gal
lagh
er (N
o. 2
), Se
ptem
ber 2
008
Issu
es in
Brie
f ser
ies
Lear
ning
from
the P
ast:
The
Fut
ure o
f Mal
aria
in A
fric
aM
eliss
a G
rabo
yes (
No.
8),
June
200
9
Food
Cri
ses i
n D
evelo
ping
Cou
ntri
es: T
he R
ole o
f Nat
iona
l Gov
erna
nce
Abi
d Q
aiyu
m S
uler
i (N
o. 7
), M
ay 2
009
Seei
ng H
unge
r thr
ough
New
Eye
s: Fr
om L
ack
to P
ossib
ility
Fran
ces M
oore
Lap
pé (N
o. 6
), A
pril
2009
Susta
inab
le D
evelo
pmen
t in
Afri
ca: A
gric
ultu
re, T
rade
, and
Clim
ate C
hang
eK
ati K
ulov
esi (
No.
5),
Mar
ch 2
009
Tran
spor
tatio
n in
Meg
a-C
ities
: A L
ocal
Issu
e, A
Glo
bal Q
uesti
onN
adaa
Tai
yab
(No.
4),
Nov
embe
r 200
8
For a
com
plet
e list
and
PD
F ve
rsio
ns o
f pub
licat
ions
by
the F
rede
rick
S. P
arde
e Cen
ter f
or th
e St
udy
of th
e Lon
ger-
Rang
e Fut
ure,
visit
ww
w.bu
.edu/
pard
ee/p
ublic
atio
ns.
Glo
bal A
ging
: Em
ergi
ng C
halle
nges
Ale
xand
ra C
ram
pton
Abs
trac
t
Agin
g po
licy
fram
ewor
ks w
ere d
evise
d du
ring
a d
emog
raph
ic a
nd ec
onom
ic
cont
ext i
n w
hich
pop
ulat
ion
agin
g se
emed
confi
ned
to w
ealth
y na
tions
. The
se
coun
trie
s cou
ld a
fford
retir
emen
t pol
icie
s tha
t sup
port
ed o
lder
wor
kers
, dec
reas
ed
unem
ploy
men
t am
ong
youn
ger w
orke
rs, a
nd d
ecre
ased
fam
ily p
ressu
re to
pro
vide
ol
d ag
e car
e. T
his c
alcu
latio
n w
as b
ased
in p
art o
n fa
ilure
to a
ntic
ipat
e thr
ee
dem
ogra
phic
tren
ds: c
ontin
ual d
eclin
e in
fert
ility
belo
w re
plac
emen
t rat
e, co
n-tin
ual g
ains
in lo
ngev
ity, a
nd th
e rise
of p
opul
atio
n ag
ing
in p
oor a
nd “u
nder
-de
velo
ped”
coun
trie
s. T
hese
thre
e tre
nds n
ow fu
el a
sens
e of c
risis
. In
the g
loba
l N
orth
, the
re is
fear
that
incr
easin
g nu
mbe
rs o
f old
er a
dults
will
dep
lete s
tate
pe
nsio
n an
d he
alth
care
syste
ms.
In th
e glo
bal S
outh
, the
fear
is th
at p
opul
atio
n ag
ing
coup
led w
ith fa
mily
“br
eakd
own”
requ
ires s
uch
state
inte
rven
tion.
Nat
u-ra
l disa
ster m
etap
hors
, suc
h as
“age
quak
e” a
nd “a
ge-t
suna
mi,”
illu
strat
e fea
rs
of a
“gra
ying
glo
be”
in w
hich
pop
ulat
ion
agin
g im
plie
s pop
ulat
ion
deca
y an
d ec
onom
ic d
estr
uctio
n. Y
et, g
loba
l agi
ng tr
ends
dev
elop
over
dec
ades
and
are
not
ea
sily
reve
rsed
. Lon
ger-
rang
e tre
nds c
an b
e add
resse
d th
roug
h re
visin
g po
licy
fram
ewor
ks to
inco
rpor
ate h
ow g
row
ing
old
is m
ovin
g fro
m g
loba
l exc
eptio
n to
ex
pect
atio
n.
Th
e a
uth
or w
ould
lik
e t
o t
han
k t
he F
rederic
k S
. P
ardee C
en
ter f
or t
he S
tudy o
f t
he L
on
ger-
Ran
ge F
utu
re f
or s
up
po
rt
fo
r w
rit
ing t
his
pap
er.
Th
e a
uth
or is a
lso
grate
ful to
Marah
Curti
s,
Kate
Co
on
ey, an
d p
arti
cip
an
ts o
f t
he S
ocia
l W
elf
are C
ollo
quiu
m f
or t
ho
ugh
tful co
mm
en
ts
an
d in
cis
ive q
uesti
on
s, an
d t
o R
uth
Dun
kle
, Sco
tt G
ero
n, an
d R
ob
ert
Hudso
n f
or t
heir
co
nstr
ucti
ve r
evie
ws.
1
Glo
bal A
ging
: Em
ergi
ng C
halle
nges
3
I. IN
TR
OD
UC
TIO
N
For m
ost o
f hum
an h
istor
y, re
achi
ng o
ld a
ge w
as a
n ex
cept
ion.
Sch
olar
s es
timat
e th
at g
loba
l life
exp
ecta
ncy
up u
ntil
the
mid
-18t
h ce
ntur
y w
as o
nly
25
year
s (Va
llin
2002
). R
each
ing
old
age
was
cau
se fo
r cel
ebra
tion.
For
exa
mpl
e,
the
Briti
sh c
row
n be
gan
a pr
actic
e in
the
early
20t
h ce
ntur
y of
send
ing
spec
ial
birt
hday
con
grat
ulat
ions
to su
bjec
ts o
n th
eir 1
00th
birt
hday
. In
1917
, sev
en
men
and
17
wom
en re
ceiv
ed th
is gr
eetin
g. O
ver t
he n
ext f
ew g
ener
atio
ns, t
he
Que
en b
ecam
e qu
ite b
usy
as o
ld a
ge in
Wes
tern
Eur
ope
mov
ed fr
om e
xcep
-tio
n to
exp
ecta
tion.
By
1952
, the
ave
rage
num
ber o
f birt
hday
tele
gram
s was
20
0. In
200
7, th
e nu
mbe
r was
8,4
39 (T
he R
oyal
Hou
seho
ld 2
008/
9).
Toda
y, de
mog
raph
ers n
ote
that
pop
ulat
ion
agin
g is
a tr
end
spre
adin
g ac
ross
th
e w
orld
. Glo
bal l
ife e
xpec
tanc
y re
ache
d ab
out 4
7 ye
ars b
y 19
50, h
as re
ache
d ag
e 67
toda
y, an
d is
proj
ecte
d to
rise
to 7
5 by
205
0 (A
AR
P 20
07; U
nite
d N
atio
ns 2
009)
.1 Due
to d
eclin
ing
fert
ility
, the
pro
port
ion
of o
lder
adu
lts
in th
e gl
obal
pop
ulat
ion
is al
so in
crea
sing.
The
glo
bal p
opul
atio
n of
peo
ple
60-p
lus i
s exp
ecte
d to
rise
from
10.
8 pe
rcen
t in
2009
to a
lmos
t 22
perc
ent
by 2
050
(Uni
ted
Nat
ions
200
9). W
omen
are
mak
ing
even
gre
ater
gai
ns th
an
men
. For
exa
mpl
e, fe
mal
e lif
e ex
pect
ancy
con
tinue
s to
surp
ass t
hat o
f men
by
a ra
nge
of th
ree
to se
ven
addi
tiona
l yea
rs w
orld
wid
e (U
nite
d N
atio
ns 2
009)
.2 In
200
5, o
lder
wom
en (6
0-pl
us) o
utnu
mbe
red
olde
r men
by
67 m
illio
n (U
nite
d N
atio
ns 2
005)
. Pol
icy
mak
ers d
escr
ibe
thes
e tr
ends
as a
“gr
ayin
g gl
obe;
” a
mor
e ac
cura
te im
age
may
be
“the
gra
nnyi
ng o
f the
glo
be.”
Ana
lysts
des
crib
e th
is tre
nd a
s par
t of a
“lo
ngev
ity re
volu
tion”
in w
hich
mor
e pe
ople
are
reac
hing
“old
-old
” ag
e of
80-
plus
.3 Thi
s age
gro
up is
the
faste
st gr
ow-
ing
segm
ent o
f old
er a
dults
wor
ldw
ide
(Uni
ted
Nat
ions
200
5). T
hose
nat
ions
of
ferin
g sp
ecia
l birt
hday
gre
etin
gs w
ill b
ecom
e bu
sier b
y 20
50, w
hen
a pr
ojec
ted
2.3
mill
ion
peop
le w
ill b
ecom
e ce
nten
aria
ns (K
alac
he e
t al.
2002
).
1. L
ong-
rang
e de
mog
raph
ic st
atist
ics o
ften
incl
ude
a lo
wer
, med
ium
, and
hig
her r
ange
of p
roje
cted
ch
ange
. The
stat
istic
s use
d to
des
crib
e po
pula
tion
agin
g tr
ends
and
to c
reat
e po
pula
tion
pyra
mid
s use
a
med
ium
-ran
ge p
roje
ctio
n.2.
Gen
der d
iffer
ence
s are
mor
e pr
onou
nced
in la
ter a
ges.
3.
As d
escr
ibed
by
Kin
sella
and
Phi
llips
, “A
lmos
t one
-hal
f of p
eopl
e bo
rn to
day
can
expe
ct to
reac
h ag
e 80
” (K
inse
lla a
nd P
hilli
ps 2
005)
.
4
Th
e Pa
rdee
Pap
ers
| No.
6 |
Aug
ust 2
009
G
loba
l Agi
ng: E
mer
ging
Cha
lleng
es
5
In th
e pa
st, p
opul
atio
n ag
ing
was
thou
ght t
o be
the
resu
lt of
succ
essfu
l dev
elop
-m
ent.
Agi
ng p
olic
y, th
en, w
as c
onfin
ed to
cou
ntrie
s defi
ned
as e
ither
dev
elop
ed
or w
ell o
n th
eir w
ay. S
ome
argu
ed th
at th
ere
was
“no
agin
g” in
poo
rer n
atio
ns
of th
e gl
obal
Sou
th w
here
old
er a
dults
wer
e pr
otec
ted
by c
ultu
ral n
orm
s and
the
state
cou
ld re
ly o
n fa
mily
to c
are
for r
elat
ivel
y fe
w a
ging
rela
tives
(Coh
en 1
998)
.4 To
day,
olde
r adu
lts m
ay se
em to
hav
e a
grea
ter p
rese
nce
in w
ealth
y na
tions
of
the
glob
al N
orth
bec
ause
the
prop
ortio
ns o
f peo
ple
60 a
nd 8
0-pl
us a
re h
ighe
r (T
irrito
200
3).5 H
owev
er, m
ost p
eopl
e ag
ed 6
0-pl
us a
nd a
bout
hal
f of t
hose
ag
ed 8
0-pl
us li
ve in
the
glob
al S
outh
. By
2050
, 69
perc
ent o
f the
old
est o
ld
will
be
livin
g in
that
regi
on (U
nite
d N
atio
ns, 2
009)
. Thi
s is i
n pa
rt d
ue to
the
grea
ter o
vera
ll po
pula
tion
num
bers
in
the
glob
al S
outh
, and
also
due
to
faste
r rat
es o
f inc
reas
e am
ong
olde
r pop
ulat
ions
in th
ese
regi
ons
(Uni
ted
Nat
ions
200
9; D
emen
y an
d M
cNic
oll 2
006)
. Whi
le th
e po
pula
tion
of p
eopl
e 60
-plu
s will
in
crea
se fr
om 2
31 m
illio
n to
395
m
illio
n be
twee
n 20
00 a
nd 2
050
in th
e gl
obal
Nor
th, f
or e
xam
ple,
th
e ol
der p
opul
atio
n in
the
glob
al S
outh
will
incr
ease
from
374
mill
ion
to 1
.6
billi
on d
urin
g th
e sa
me
perio
d (U
nite
d N
atio
ns 2
002)
.
Popu
lati
on A
ging
: Dev
elop
men
t Suc
cess
Sto
ry o
r Mod
ern
Polic
y C
risi
s?
Dem
ogra
pher
s des
crib
e po
pula
tion
agin
g as
a m
oder
niza
tion
succ
ess s
tory
. T
his i
s bec
ause
the
key
driv
ers o
f pop
ulat
ion
agin
g ar
e de
crea
sing
mor
tal-
ity a
nd fe
rtili
ty, w
hich
hav
e be
en im
port
ant g
oals
in d
evel
opm
ent p
olic
y an
d pl
anni
ng fo
r the
pas
t tw
o ge
nera
tions
. Yet
, the
disc
ussio
n of
old
age
in
polic
y di
scou
rse
has b
een
muc
h m
ore
pess
imist
ic. A
neg
ativ
e re
latio
nshi
p is
4. In
this
pape
r, th
e te
rms “
glob
al N
orth
and
Sou
th”
refe
r to
regi
ons c
onsid
ered
mod
ern
and
deve
lope
d (t
he N
orth
) in
cont
rast
to th
ose
still
dev
elop
ing
(the
Sou
th).
Des
pite
the
prob
lem
s with
this
appr
oach
, th
ese
term
s are
use
d gi
ven
the
tend
ency
in a
ging
pol
icy
to b
ifurc
ate
conc
ern
betw
een
a gl
obal
Nor
th o
f w
ealth
ier,
agin
g po
pula
tions
and
a g
loba
l Sou
th o
f rel
ativ
ely
poor
and
you
thfu
l pop
ulat
ions
. 5.
For
exa
mpl
e, th
e pr
opor
tion
of o
lder
adu
lts in
dev
elop
ed re
gion
s is p
roje
cted
to in
crea
se fr
om o
ne-
fifth
to o
ne-t
hird
of t
he re
gion
al p
opul
atio
n be
twee
n 20
05 a
nd 2
050.
Dur
ing
the
sam
e pe
riod,
the
prop
ortio
n of
old
er a
dults
in th
e gl
obal
Sou
th is
pro
ject
ed to
incr
ease
from
8 p
erce
nt to
one
-fift
h of
the
regi
onal
pop
ulat
ion
(Uni
ted
Nat
ions
200
5).
posit
ed b
etw
een
agin
g an
d de
velo
pmen
t, in
whi
ch th
e ro
le a
nd so
cial
stat
us
of o
lder
adu
lts d
eclin
es a
s cou
ntrie
s mod
erni
ze a
nd d
evel
op. S
tate
inte
rven
-tio
n be
com
es n
eces
sary
to p
rovi
de jo
bs fo
r you
nger
wor
kers
and
to su
ppor
t re
tiree
s. O
ld a
ge th
en e
mer
ges
in p
olic
y as
a li
fe s
tage
cha
ract
eriz
ed a
s un
prod
uctiv
e an
d de
pend
ent.
Agi
ng p
olic
y fo
cuse
s on
the
prob
lem
s of p
en-
sions
and
eld
er c
are.
The
chi
ef m
easu
re fo
r pol
icy
plan
ning
is d
epen
denc
y ra
tios,
whi
ch c
alcu
late
the
boun
dary
bet
wee
n pr
oduc
tive
citiz
ens r
elat
ive
to
the
depe
nden
t. T
his b
ound
ary
is se
t by
the
chro
nolo
gica
l age
des
igna
ted
as
old.
Dem
ogra
phic
ally
you
nger
nat
ions
tend
to c
hoos
e ag
e 50
as t
he b
ound
-ar
y w
hile
agi
ng n
atio
ns u
se 6
0 or
65.
Agi
ng p
olic
y th
us u
ses b
irth
days
to
divi
de p
opul
atio
ns b
etw
een
thos
e w
ho g
ive
and
thos
e w
ho ta
ke fr
om th
e fo
rmal
eco
nom
y an
d so
cial
wel
fare
syst
em.
Giv
en th
e ch
arac
teriz
atio
n of
agi
ng a
s los
s, po
licy
anal
ysts
und
erst
anda
bly
view
glo
bal a
ging
tren
ds w
ith a
larm
. At a
n ex
trem
e, m
etap
hors
of n
atur
al
disa
ster
are
use
d to
war
n of
an
impe
ndin
g “g
ray
daw
n” th
at th
reat
ens t
o “b
ankr
upt”
stat
e w
elfa
re sy
stem
s (Pe
ters
on 1
999)
. Mea
nwhi
le, e
lder
adv
o-ca
tes s
ound
a d
iffer
ent a
larm
in d
evel
opin
g co
untr
ies.
The
y ar
gue
that
cou
n-tr
ies a
re b
ecom
ing
“old
bef
ore
they
are
rich
.” T
he in
form
al p
olic
y of
rely
ing
upon
fam
ilies
for e
lder
car
e is
ther
efor
e un
sust
aina
ble.
Rat
her t
han
a bu
rden
to
the
stat
e, o
lder
adu
lts a
re a
t risk
of b
urde
ning
fam
ilies
.
Step
s to
war
d Lo
ng-R
ange
Agi
ng P
olic
y
In ta
king
a lo
nger
-ran
ge v
iew,
it is
impo
rtan
t to
rem
embe
r a p
revi
ous p
opu-
latio
n cr
isis.
Fear
of “
popu
latio
n ex
plos
ion”
beg
an in
the
1950
s (D
emen
y an
d M
cNic
oll 2
006)
. The
con
cern
was
that
gai
ns in
mor
talit
y m
ade
poss
ible
th
roug
h su
cces
sful
pub
lic h
ealth
and
med
ical
inte
rven
tions
wou
ld re
sult
in e
xpon
entia
l pop
ulat
ion
grow
th u
nles
s che
cked
by
fert
ility
dec
line.
Pol
icy
inte
rven
tions
focu
sed
on d
ecre
asin
g bi
rth
rate
s thr
ough
pop
ulat
ion
and
fam
-ily
pla
nnin
g. W
hat w
as u
nkno
wn
in 1
969,
whe
n th
e U
N P
opul
atio
n Fu
nd
(UN
FPA
) was
cre
ated
, was
that
glo
bal b
irth
rate
s wer
e pe
akin
g be
twee
n 19
65–1
970
(Sad
ik 2
002)
. Con
cert
ed p
olic
y ef
fort
s wer
e th
eref
ore
impl
e-m
ente
d ju
st a
s tre
nds b
egan
to c
hang
e. S
ucce
ssfu
l int
erve
ntio
n th
roug
h po
licy
then
hel
ped
acce
lera
te fe
rtili
ty d
eclin
e (C
aldw
ell 2
002)
. Tod
ay, s
ome
coun
trie
s are
faci
ng a
new
fear
of b
irth
dea
rth
as fe
rtili
ty ra
tes f
all p
ast t
he
desir
ed r
ates
. For
exa
mpl
e, fe
ar o
f pop
ulat
ion
impl
osio
n he
lps d
rive
pro
-
Whi
le th
e po
pula
tion
of p
eopl
e 60
-pl
us w
ill in
crea
se fr
om 2
31 m
illio
n to
39
5 m
illio
n be
twee
n 20
00 a
nd 2
050
in th
e gl
obal
Nor
th, f
or e
xam
ple,
the
olde
r pop
ulat
ion
in th
e gl
obal
Sou
th
will
incr
ease
from
374
mill
ion
to 1.
6 bi
llion
dur
ing
the
sam
e pe
riod.
6
Th
e Pa
rdee
Pap
ers
| No.
6 |
Aug
ust 2
009
G
loba
l Agi
ng: E
mer
ging
Cha
lleng
es
7
nata
list p
olic
ies i
n W
este
rn E
urop
e an
d pa
rts o
f Asia
(Mar
tin 1
991;
Rob
ert-
son
2007
).
Thi
s pas
t cris
is w
as m
et w
ith a
reac
tion
narr
owly
focu
sed
on o
ne p
olic
y so
lutio
n (f
amily
pla
nnin
g pr
ogra
ms)
to re
duce
bir
th ra
tes.
The
cur
rent
cris
is no
w c
ente
rs o
n th
ose
who
reac
h an
age
of d
epen
denc
y at
the
othe
r end
of
the
lifes
pan.
Giv
en th
e gl
obal
eco
nom
ic c
risis,
it is
not
surp
risin
g th
at su
ch a
po
pula
tion
wou
ld b
e ex
amin
ed w
ith a
larm
. At t
he sa
me
time,
dem
ogra
pher
s pr
ojec
t tha
t pop
ulat
ion
agin
g is
begi
nnin
g to
slow
. The
glo
bal
grow
th in
old
er a
dults
is c
ur-
rent
ly p
eaki
ng, a
nd is
pro
ject
ed
to st
abili
ze b
y 20
25 (A
AR
P 20
07).
In a
dditi
on, t
he ra
te o
f po
pula
tion
agin
g is
begi
nnin
g to
slo
w in
the
“old
est”
cou
ntry
pop
-ul
atio
ns e
ven
as th
at ra
te is
beg
inni
ng to
take
off
in th
ose
coun
trie
s in
whi
ch
yout
h cu
rren
tly o
ccup
y po
licy
mak
ers’
atte
ntio
n.6 A
sign
ifica
nt p
ropo
rtio
n of
old
er a
dults
in th
e fu
ture
will
com
e fr
om th
ese
yout
hful
pop
ulat
ions
. T
he e
ndur
ing
chal
leng
e is
not h
ow to
sim
ply
redu
ce e
ither
the
num
ber o
r de
pend
ency
of o
lder
adu
lts. N
or c
an c
ount
ries w
ait u
ntil
they
are
wea
lthy
enou
gh to
supp
ort n
atio
nal p
ensio
n an
d he
alth
car
e pr
ogra
ms.
The
long
-ra
nge
polic
y ch
alle
nge
is ho
w e
cono
mic
and
hum
an d
evel
opm
ent p
olic
y an
d pl
anni
ng sh
ould
incl
ude
agin
g an
d th
e ex
pect
atio
n of
reac
hing
old
age
.
Thi
s pap
er a
ddre
sses
this
chal
leng
e th
roug
h ex
amin
atio
n of
dem
ogra
phic
tr
ends
, pol
icy
disc
ours
e, a
nd e
thno
grap
hic
data
. The
hist
oric
al e
xper
ienc
e in
Wes
tern
Eur
ope
has p
rovi
ded
a cl
assic
mod
el fo
r exp
lain
ing
how
agi
ng
beco
mes
an
impo
rtan
t dem
ogra
phic
and
pol
icy
issue
. In
this
mod
el, p
opul
a-tio
n ag
ing
tren
ds e
mer
ge sl
owly
thro
ugh
mod
erni
zatio
n an
d de
velo
pmen
t.
Thi
s is a
ccom
pani
ed b
y er
osio
n of
eld
er st
atus
. By
the
time
agin
g be
com
es a
so
cial
pro
blem
dem
andi
ng p
olic
y at
tent
ion,
the
stat
e is
prep
ared
to su
ppor
t ol
der a
dults
thro
ugh
pens
ions
and
hea
lth c
are.
Indi
vidu
al c
ount
ries c
an
be a
naly
zed
as p
re-t
rans
ition
, in
tran
sitio
n, o
r pos
t-tr
ansit
ion.
In lo
okin
g
6. F
or e
xam
ple,
whi
le th
e av
erag
e ag
e of
the
U.S
. pop
ulat
ion
is pr
ojec
ted
to in
crea
se b
y ab
out t
hree
yea
rs
over
the
next
20
year
s, th
e av
erag
e ag
e in
Mex
ico
is pr
ojec
ted
to in
crea
se b
y 20
yea
rs (H
ewitt
200
4).
tow
ard
the
long
er-r
ange
futu
re, h
owev
er, a
sing
ular
mod
el b
ecom
es in
crea
s-in
gly
insu
ffici
ent.
Dem
ogra
phic
tren
ds a
re o
utgr
owin
g th
e cl
assic
mod
el,
and
new
pol
icy
chal
leng
es h
ave
emer
ged.
The
se c
halle
nges
are
exa
cerb
ated
by
pol
icy
in w
hich
old
age
is n
arro
wly
defi
ned
by c
hron
olog
ical
age
and
as
dep
ende
ncy
and
loss
. Eth
nogr
aphi
c st
udy
of o
lder
adu
lts p
rovi
des d
ata
for e
xpan
ding
pol
icy
fram
ewor
ks. T
he d
ata
in th
is pa
per d
emon
stra
te h
ow
peop
le b
ecom
e ol
d (u
nrel
ated
to b
irth
days
) and
how
they
rely
on
fam
ily
and
info
rmal
net
wor
ks fo
r car
e. O
ld a
ge c
are
is th
us n
ot o
nly
a pr
oble
m fo
r th
e st
ate
but p
art o
f a so
cial
con
trac
t bet
wee
n th
e st
ate
and
the
fam
ily in
pr
ovid
ing
care
and
wor
kfor
ce p
rodu
ctiv
ity. G
iven
dem
ogra
phic
tren
ds, t
his
pape
r con
clud
es w
ith re
com
men
datio
ns fo
r re-
conc
eptu
aliz
ing
agin
g an
d th
e pr
oble
ms o
f old
age
in p
olic
y an
d pl
anni
ng.
II. P
OPU
LAT
ION
AG
ING
BY
NU
MBE
RS:
DEM
OG
RA
PHIC
TR
END
S
How
do
popu
latio
ns a
ge? D
emog
raph
ers u
se se
vera
l mea
sure
s to
defin
e po
p-ul
atio
n ag
ing,
incl
udin
g ab
solu
te n
umbe
rs, r
ates
of i
ncre
ase,
and
pro
port
ion
in re
latio
n to
you
nger
coh
orts
. The
mos
t com
mon
mea
sure
s are
ave
rage
life
ex
pect
ancy
at b
irth
, and
the
prop
ortio
n an
d ra
te o
f inc
reas
e in
old
er p
opul
a-tio
ns re
lativ
e to
you
nger
coh
orts
(for
exa
mpl
e, se
e U
nite
d N
atio
ns 2
009)
. Yo
ung
popu
latio
ns a
re th
ose
in w
hich
mor
e th
an 3
0 pe
rcen
t of t
he p
opul
a-tio
n is
unde
r 15
and
less
than
6 p
erce
nt o
f the
pop
ulat
ion
is ol
d (d
efine
d as
60-
or 6
5-pl
us).
Old
pop
ulat
ions
are
the
reve
rse,
and
are
par
ticul
arly
no
ted
whe
n th
e ra
te o
f inc
reas
e is
grea
test
am
ong
olde
r coh
orts
(Cow
gill
1974
). A
noth
er m
easu
re is
the
med
ian
age
of a
pop
ulat
ion.
Thi
s is t
he a
ge
divi
ding
the
popu
latio
n in
hal
f. Fo
r exa
mpl
e, th
e m
edia
n ag
e in
Chi
na is
pr
ojec
ted
to in
crea
se fr
om 4
1 to
55
by 2
050
(Uni
ted
Nat
ions
200
9). T
his
mea
ns th
at h
alf o
f the
pop
ulat
ion
will
be
over
55
and
half
will
be
unde
r 55.
By
con
tras
t, th
e m
edia
n ag
e fo
r Nig
er a
s the
wor
ld’s
youn
gest
pop
ulat
ion
is 15
toda
y an
d pr
ojec
ted
to b
e ag
e 20
by
the
year
205
0 (U
nite
d N
atio
ns
2009
). D
emog
raph
ic tr
ends
are
mea
sure
d an
d pr
ojec
ted
thro
ugh
hist
oric
al
and
curr
ent a
vera
ges i
n fe
rtili
ty, m
orta
lity,
and
mor
bidi
ty ra
tes.
(Mor
bidi
ty
refe
rs to
cau
se o
f dea
th.)
Cur
rent
glo
bal a
ging
tren
ds a
re p
rimar
ily d
riven
by
fert
ility
dec
line,
follo
wed
by
mor
talit
y de
clin
e. N
atio
nal a
ging
tren
ds a
re
also
affe
cted
to v
aryi
ng e
xten
ts b
y m
igra
tion.
The
long
-ran
ge p
olic
y ch
alle
nge
is h
ow
econ
omic
and
hum
an d
evel
opm
ent
polic
y an
d pl
anni
ng s
houl
d in
clud
e ag
ing
and
the
expe
ctat
ion
of re
achi
ng
old
age.
8
Th
e Pa
rdee
Pap
ers
| No.
6 |
Aug
ust 2
009
G
loba
l Agi
ng: E
mer
ging
Cha
lleng
es
9
Whe
n de
mog
raph
ers w
rite
of p
opul
atio
n ag
ing
as a
n in
dica
tion
of d
evel
-op
men
t suc
cess
, the
y ar
e re
ferr
ing
to fe
rtili
ty, m
orta
lity,
and
mor
bidi
ty
tren
ds. T
hese
are
cap
ture
d th
roug
h a
tale
of t
rans
ition
s in
whi
ch d
evel
oped
co
untr
ies h
ave
succ
essf
ully
redu
ced
fert
ility
and
mor
talit
y ra
tes.
Mor
bidi
ty
tren
ds sh
ow im
prov
ed su
rviv
al ra
tes f
rom
acu
te in
fect
ion
and
man
y ill
ness
es
(Dem
eny
and
McN
icol
l 200
6; O
mra
n 19
71; S
adik
200
2). D
evel
opm
ent
driv
es th
e de
mog
raph
ic a
nd e
pide
mio
logi
c ch
ange
from
“tr
aditi
onal
soci
et-
ies”
of n
o ag
ing
to “
mod
ern
soci
etie
s” w
ith p
opul
atio
n ag
ing.
Pol
icy
anal
ysts
th
en e
xam
ine
how
far i
ndiv
idua
l cou
ntrie
s hav
e m
oved
from
trad
ition
al
to m
oder
n de
velo
pmen
t con
text
s. W
hile
this
proc
ess u
nfol
ded
slow
ly in
Eu
rope
ove
r cen
turie
s, de
mog
raph
ic c
hang
es a
ssoc
iate
d w
ith d
evel
opm
ent a
re
now
hap
peni
ng w
ithin
dec
ades
. In
fact
, cur
rent
and
long
er-r
ange
dem
o-gr
aphi
c pa
tter
ns su
gges
t tha
t the
se m
odel
s are
incr
easin
gly
outd
ated
bot
h in
Eur
ope
(whi
ch is
now
in “
post
-tra
nsiti
on”)
and
man
y ot
her p
arts
of t
he
wor
ld. I
n pa
rtic
ular
, dev
elop
men
t has
pro
ven
to b
e a
high
ly v
aria
ble
and
com
-pl
ex p
roce
ss o
f soc
ial a
nd e
cono
mic
cha
nge.
Var
iabl
es li
nkin
g de
velo
pmen
t an
d de
mog
raph
ics o
ught
to b
e di
sent
angl
ed fr
om th
e hi
stor
ical
Eur
opea
n ex
ampl
e us
ed to
cre
ate
the
clas
sic m
odel
s. N
ever
thel
ess,
this
sect
ion
begi
ns
with
the
dom
inan
t the
oret
ical
tool
s cur
rent
ly u
sed
by p
olic
y m
aker
s with
in
this
linea
r, pr
ogre
ssiv
e m
odel
, and
then
disc
usse
s tre
nds t
hat f
all o
utsid
e th
is m
odel
usin
g co
untr
y-sp
ecifi
c ex
ampl
es.
Dem
ogra
phic
Tra
nsit
ion
Theo
ry
The
dem
ogra
phic
tran
sitio
n co
nsist
s of f
our s
tage
s. T
he fi
rst s
tage
is m
arke
d by
hig
h fe
rtili
ty a
nd m
orta
lity.
7 In
the
seco
nd st
age,
infa
nt a
nd c
hild
mor
tal-
ity d
ecre
ase,
and
fert
ility
rate
s the
n slo
wly
dec
reas
e to
repl
acem
ent l
evel
. R
epla
cem
ent l
evel
is th
e nu
mbe
r of b
irth
s per
wom
an th
at w
ould
kee
p po
pula
tion
leve
ls st
able
, and
is e
stim
ated
as 2
.1 c
hild
ren
per w
oman
. In
the
third
stag
e, in
fant
and
chi
ld m
orta
lity
rate
s sta
biliz
e at
a v
ery
low
num
ber.
Thi
s cau
ses p
opul
atio
n gr
owth
. As f
ertil
ity ra
tes f
all,
and
as a
dult
mor
talit
y ra
tes a
lso b
egin
to fa
ll, p
opul
atio
ns b
egin
to “
age.
” In
this
four
th st
age,
whe
n fe
rtili
ty a
nd m
orta
lity
rate
s are
low,
the
dem
ogra
phic
tran
sitio
n is
com
plet
e.
Popu
latio
n eq
uilib
rium
theo
ry su
gges
ts th
at p
opul
atio
n gr
owth
dec
lines
and
th
at p
opul
atio
ns e
vent
ually
stab
ilize
(Val
lin 2
002)
.8
7. F
or a
revi
ew o
f the
hist
ory
and
deba
te a
roun
d de
mog
raph
ic tr
ansit
ion
theo
ry, s
ee K
irk 1
996.
8. S
chol
ars d
ebat
e w
heth
er a
nd w
hen
popu
latio
ns st
abili
ze. L
ong-
rang
e pr
ojec
tions
of w
orld
pop
ulat
ion
Ana
lyzi
ng th
e ho
w a
nd w
hy o
f pop
ulat
ion
tran
sitio
n tie
s agi
ng to
dev
elop
-m
ent.
The
mai
n dr
iver
s are
theo
rized
not
to b
e th
e ar
rival
of i
ndus
tria
liza-
tion
as m
uch
as a
ccom
pany
ing
soci
oeco
nom
ic c
hang
es. T
he m
ain
fact
ors
are
publ
ic h
ealth
and
edu
catio
n (C
owgi
ll 19
74).
Aga
in, t
he k
ey tr
ansit
ions
ar
e ch
angi
ng fe
rtili
ty a
nd m
orta
lity
rate
s. In
the
first
pha
se o
f tra
nsiti
on,
decr
easin
g in
fant
and
chi
ld m
orta
lity
rate
s lea
d to
dec
reas
ing
num
bers
of
birt
hs. P
ublic
hea
lth is
a fa
ctor
as i
mpr
oved
sani
tatio
n an
d he
alth
inte
rven
-tio
ns im
prov
e no
t onl
y in
fant
and
chi
ld h
ealth
but
also
mat
erna
l hea
lth o
ut-
com
es. A
ssum
ing
ratio
nal c
alcu
latio
n ba
sed
on a
n id
eal f
amily
size
, wom
en
choo
se to
redu
ce th
e nu
mbe
r of p
regn
anci
es (
Jone
s et a
l. 19
97).
As c
oun-
trie
s dev
elop
, fam
ilies
also
cho
ose
to h
ave
few
er c
hild
ren
as th
e “c
ost”
per
ch
ild in
edu
catio
n an
d ot
her p
repa
ratio
n fo
r lat
er e
cono
mic
role
s inc
reas
es.
Exam
inat
ion
of fe
rtili
ty tr
ansit
ion
also
show
s a c
orre
latio
n be
twee
n de
clin
-in
g fe
rtili
ty a
nd th
e ris
e of
wom
en’s
educ
atio
n, d
elay
ed m
arria
ge, a
nd a
ge
of fi
rst b
irth
. Cha
nges
in c
hoic
es a
nd b
ehav
iors
are
thou
ght t
o ha
ppen
as
a co
nseq
uenc
e of
pol
icy.
For
exa
mpl
e, a
ging
pol
icie
s are
par
tly in
tend
ed to
re
duce
fert
ility
and
idea
l fam
ily si
ze b
ecau
se p
aren
ts n
o lo
nger
nee
d to
hav
e ch
ildre
n as
an
info
rmal
soci
al in
sura
nce
polic
y.
Epid
emio
logi
c Tr
ansi
tion
The
ory
Abd
el R
. Om
ran
first
pos
ited
epid
emio
logi
c th
eory
as a
way
to e
xpla
in th
e co
rrel
atio
n be
twee
n m
orta
lity
patt
erns
, mor
bidi
ty p
atte
rns,
and
dem
o-gr
aphi
c tr
ansit
ion
(Om
ran
1971
). T
his t
heor
y su
gges
ts th
at d
emog
raph
ic
tran
sitio
ns a
re a
ccom
pani
ed b
y an
epi
dem
iolo
gic
tran
sitio
n in
whi
ch tr
ends
in
cau
se o
f dea
th sh
ift fr
om a
cute
and
infe
ctio
us d
iseas
es to
chr
onic
and
de
gene
rativ
e co
nditi
ons.
The
se a
re d
ivid
ed in
to th
ree
stag
es: T
he A
ge o
f Pe
stile
nce
and
Fam
ine,
The
Age
of R
eced
ing
Pand
emic
s, an
d T
he A
ge o
f D
egen
erat
ive
and
Man
mad
e D
iseas
es (O
mra
n 19
71).
Whi
le th
e fir
st is
m
ost o
ften
use
d to
des
crib
e “p
rem
oder
n” ti
mes
, the
seco
nd a
nd th
ird a
re
used
to d
escr
ibe
the
mor
e re
cent
pas
t and
cur
rent
tren
ds. D
evel
opm
ent
brin
gs im
prov
ed li
ving
con
ditio
ns, p
ublic
hea
lth m
easu
res,
and
basic
med
i-ca
l int
erve
ntio
ns. T
hese
cha
nges
ena
ble
mor
e in
fant
s and
chi
ldre
n to
surv
ive
agin
g te
nd to
use
pop
ulat
ion
stab
iliza
tion
theo
ry, a
nd to
pro
ject
that
pop
ulat
ion
grow
th w
ill c
ontin
ue to
de
clin
e an
d ev
entu
ally
stab
ilize
at a
bout
9 o
r 10
billi
on p
eopl
e. T
his s
tabi
lizat
ion
will
beg
in a
roun
d 20
50
(Val
lin 2
002)
.
10
Th
e Pa
rdee
Pap
ers
| No.
6 |
Aug
ust 2
009
G
loba
l Agi
ng: E
mer
ging
Cha
lleng
es
11
into
adu
lthoo
d. M
orbi
dity
tren
ds e
vent
ually
refle
ct th
e he
alth
pro
blem
s m
ore
typi
cal o
f lat
er li
fe, s
uch
as d
iabe
tes,
obes
ity, a
nd h
eart
dise
ase.
The
se
dise
ases
are
the
so-c
alle
d “d
iseas
es o
f civ
iliza
tion”
(Bar
rett
et a
l. 19
98).
In
Euro
pe a
nd N
orth
Am
eric
a, th
ese
tren
ds a
re o
ften
ana
lyze
d as
con
sequ
ence
s of
dev
elop
men
t mor
e br
oadl
y—su
ch a
s cha
nges
in sa
nita
tion
and
hygi
ene
that
hap
pene
d ov
er ti
me.
In d
evel
opin
g co
untr
ies,
thes
e tr
ends
are
also
at
trib
uted
to c
once
rted
cam
paig
ns a
nd in
terv
entio
ns in
the
imm
edia
te
post
-Wor
ld W
ar II
per
iod,
mos
t of w
hich
hav
e de
clin
ed si
nce
1960
(Sad
ik
2002
).9 As t
his g
ener
al tr
end
is no
ted
in d
iffer
ent w
orld
regi
ons,
the
term
“h
ealth
tran
sitio
n” is
use
d to
writ
e op
timist
ical
ly o
f gen
eral
ly im
prov
ed
heal
th a
nd lo
ngev
ity a
s a lo
nger
-ran
ge tr
end
(Kin
sella
and
Phi
llips
200
5).
Popu
lati
on P
yram
ids
as D
emog
raph
ic A
ge G
auge
Sinc
e th
e 19
50s,
whe
n m
any
curr
ent p
opul
atio
n pl
anni
ng a
nd re
sear
ch
prog
ram
s firs
t sta
rted
, pop
ulat
ion
dem
ogra
phic
s hav
e be
en e
xpre
ssed
in
grap
hs c
alle
d po
pula
tion
pyra
mid
s. T
he le
ft si
de o
f the
gra
ph d
epic
ted
the
num
bers
of m
ales
in e
ach
age
coho
rt, f
rom
0–5
at t
he b
otto
m to
60-
plus
at
the
top.
The
righ
t sid
e of
the
grap
h de
pict
ed th
e nu
mbe
rs o
f fem
ales
in
eac
h co
hort
. At t
hat t
ime,
th
e ty
pica
l gra
ph a
nd th
e on
e as
sum
ed to
be
the
prem
oder
n or
pr
e-in
dust
rial n
orm
for p
opul
a-tio
ns c
reat
ed a
pyr
amid
shap
e.
The
se “
yout
hful
” po
pula
tions
ar
e ch
arac
teriz
ed b
y hi
gh fe
rtili
ty
and
mor
talit
y ra
tes.
As a
resu
lt,
the
base
of t
he p
yram
id is
alw
ays
muc
h w
ider
than
the
top.
The
se a
re p
opul
atio
ns in
whi
ch re
achi
ng o
ld a
ge
is ex
cept
iona
l and
ave
rage
life
exp
ecta
ncy
mig
ht ra
nge
from
40
to 6
0. O
ver
the
past
few
gen
erat
ions
, how
ever
, pop
ulat
ion
pyra
mid
s for
man
y co
un-
trie
s hav
e ch
ange
d sh
ape.
The
se p
yram
id p
erm
utat
ions
can
be
cate
goriz
ed
into
you
nger
and
old
er p
opul
atio
ns a
s agi
ng tr
ends
em
erge
. For
exa
mpl
e,
9. If
the
decl
ine
is sig
nific
ant,
then
it m
ay su
gges
t tha
t pop
ulat
ion
agin
g tr
ends
seen
toda
y co
uld
be le
ss
impr
essiv
e in
the
long
er-r
ange
futu
re. T
hat i
s, th
e in
fant
s and
chi
ldre
n w
ho b
enefi
ted
from
inte
rven
tions
of
the
1950
s are
the
curr
ent c
ohor
t of o
lder
adu
lts in
the
glob
al S
outh
.
Paki
stan
has
a y
outh
ful p
opul
atio
n. T
he p
opul
atio
n py
ram
id ta
kes a
cla
ssic
sh
ape
in w
hich
hig
h fe
rtili
ty ra
tes m
ean
that
the
larg
est c
ohor
ts a
lso a
re th
e yo
unge
st. M
ovin
g up
the
pyra
mid
, eac
h co
hort
tape
rs to
a sm
alle
r siz
e. A
st
eepe
r sha
pe in
dica
tes h
igh
mor
talit
y ra
tes a
s few
er p
eopl
e su
rviv
e in
to th
e ne
xt a
ge ra
nge.
Ital
y, b
y co
ntra
st, h
as a
n ag
ing
popu
latio
n. V
ery
low
bir
th-
rate
s mea
n m
uch
smal
ler y
oung
coh
orts
. Hig
h lif
e ex
pect
ancy
cou
pled
with
lo
ngev
ity tr
ends
kee
p ea
ch c
ohor
t fro
m sh
rinki
ng q
uick
ly a
s coh
orts
age
up
the
pyra
mid
. The
se sh
ape
diffe
renc
es c
an b
e co
mpa
red
in F
igur
e 1.
Figu
re 1
: Pop
ulat
ion
Pyra
mid
s fo
r Pak
ista
n an
d It
aly
Dat
a So
urce
: U.S
. Cen
sus B
urea
u, In
tern
atio
nal D
atab
ase
In d
escr
ibin
g ho
w p
opul
atio
ns a
ge, d
emog
raph
ers d
istin
guish
bet
wee
n ag
ing
“fro
m b
elow
” an
d ag
ing
“fro
m a
bove
” as
seen
in p
opul
atio
n py
ram
ids.
The
m
ain
fact
or d
rivin
g up
life
exp
ecta
ncy
over
the
past
two
gene
ratio
ns h
as
been
dec
linin
g (a
nd v
ery
low
) inf
ant a
nd c
hild
mor
talit
y. T
his i
s in
part
be
caus
e m
ost p
eopl
e w
ho su
rviv
e in
to m
atur
e ad
ulth
ood
will
surv
ive
into
ol
d ag
e. G
row
ing
old
thus
dep
ends
ver
y m
uch
on w
hat h
appe
ns a
s pop
u-la
tion
coho
rts g
row
up.
Dem
ogra
pher
s ref
er to
pop
ulat
ion
agin
g tr
ends
ca
used
by
decr
easin
g fe
rtili
ty a
nd in
fant
mor
talit
y as
“ag
ing
from
bel
ow,”
as
larg
er y
oung
coh
orts
surv
ive
child
hood
and
age
up
the
popu
latio
n py
ram
id.
Bra
zil p
rovi
des a
n ex
ampl
e of
agi
ng fr
om b
elow
. As c
an b
e se
en in
com
-pa
rison
s of p
opul
atio
n py
ram
ids f
rom
200
0 an
d 20
50 in
Fig
ure
2, la
rger
co
hort
s mov
e fr
om th
ose
at th
e lo
wer
(you
nger
) tie
rs o
f the
pyr
amid
up
into
ad
ulth
ood
thro
ugh
mid
dle
to o
ld a
ge o
ver t
ime.
Ove
r the
pas
t few
gen
erat
ions
, how
-ev
er, p
opul
atio
n py
ram
ids
for m
any
coun
trie
s ha
ve c
hang
ed s
hape
. The
se
pyra
mid
per
mut
atio
ns c
an b
e ca
tego
-riz
ed in
to y
oung
er a
nd o
lder
pop
ula-
tions
as
agin
g tr
ends
em
erge
.
12
Th
e Pa
rdee
Pap
ers
| No.
6 |
Aug
ust 2
009
G
loba
l Agi
ng: E
mer
ging
Cha
lleng
es
13
Figu
re 2
: Pop
ulat
ion
Pyra
mid
s fo
r Bra
zil,
200
0 a
nd 2
050
Dat
a So
urce
: U.S
. Cen
sus B
urea
u, In
tern
atio
nal D
atab
ase
In a
dditi
on to
agi
ng fr
om b
elow
, pop
ulat
ions
can
also
age
“fr
om a
bove
” th
roug
h de
clin
ing
mor
talit
y ra
tes a
nd o
vera
ll gr
owth
rate
s in
adul
t coh
orts
. It
aly
is on
e ex
ampl
e, a
s can
be
seen
from
the
shap
e of
its p
opul
atio
n py
ra-
mid
in F
igur
e 1.
Glo
bal v
aria
tion
in a
dult
mor
talit
y is
not a
s gre
at a
s in
adul
t life
exp
ecta
ncy
at b
irth
. For
exa
mpl
e, li
fe e
xpec
tanc
y at
bir
th ra
nges
fr
om 5
5 in
the
glob
al S
outh
to 7
7 in
the
glob
al N
orth
(Uni
ted
Nat
ions
20
09).
Thi
s refl
ects
an
over
all r
ange
in li
fe e
xpec
tanc
y at
bir
th fr
om a
ge 3
3 in
Sw
azila
nd to
age
82
in Ja
pan
and
Hon
g K
ong
(Uni
ted
Nat
ions
200
9).
The
gap
in li
fe e
xpec
tanc
y fo
r old
er a
dults
, how
ever
, is m
uch
smal
ler.
Add
ed
year
s onc
e an
indi
vidu
al re
ache
s age
60
rang
e fr
om a
n ad
ditio
nal 1
5 ye
ars
for A
fric
an m
en to
an
addi
tiona
l 25
year
s for
Nor
th A
mer
ican
wom
en
(Abo
derin
200
7). T
he p
heno
men
on o
f agi
ng fr
om a
bove
hel
ps e
xpla
in
popu
latio
n gr
owth
in c
ount
ries w
ith b
irth
rate
s at o
r bel
ow re
plac
emen
t le
vel.
For e
xam
ple,
the
birt
h ra
te in
Chi
na is
bel
ow re
plac
emen
t lev
el, a
nd
popu
latio
n gr
owth
has
slow
ed b
ut n
ot y
et st
abili
zed
(Jia
nmin
200
7). A
ging
fr
om a
bove
has
also
requ
ired
dem
ogra
pher
s to
add
tiers
to th
e to
ps o
f pop
u-la
tion
pyra
mid
s.
Of c
ours
e, th
e m
ost i
mm
edia
te w
ay in
whi
ch p
opul
atio
n ag
ing
tren
ds c
an
chan
ge is
thro
ugh
imm
igra
tion.
Alth
ough
imm
igra
tion
does
not
typi
cally
af
fect
dem
ogra
phic
tren
ds a
s muc
h as
fert
ility
and
mor
talit
y ra
tes,
this
obvi
-ou
sly d
epen
ds u
pon
imm
igra
tion
polic
y an
d m
igra
tion
flow
s. In
par
ticul
ar,
the
Uni
ted
Stat
es is
one
of t
he y
oung
er p
opul
atio
ns in
the
glob
al N
orth
larg
ely
due
to im
mig
ratio
n. T
he c
urre
nt g
loba
l mig
ratio
n ra
te is
abo
ut tw
o m
illio
n pe
ople
eac
h ye
ar (U
nite
d N
atio
ns 2
009)
. Ove
r the
nex
t 50
year
s, th
e U
nite
d St
ates
is p
roje
cted
to c
ontin
ue re
ceiv
ing
abou
t 1.1
mill
ion
peop
le
each
yea
r (U
nite
d N
atio
ns 2
009)
. Alth
ough
pop
ulat
ion
agin
g pr
essu
res
spar
k im
mig
ratio
n de
bate
in E
urop
e an
d Ja
pan,
pol
icie
s rem
ain
com
para
-tiv
ely
rest
rictiv
e.
Popu
latio
n py
ram
ids f
rom
Ger
man
y an
d th
e U
.S. c
an b
e us
ed to
com
pare
th
e im
pact
of p
opul
atio
n ag
ing
from
abo
ve w
ith th
e ad
ded
influ
ence
in th
e U
.S. o
f im
mig
ratio
n (F
igur
e 3)
. Whi
le lo
ngev
ity tr
ends
are
refle
cted
in th
e co
hort
size
of o
lder
gen
erat
ions
for b
oth
coun
trie
s, U
.S. i
mm
igra
tion
adds
m
ore
peop
le to
you
nger
coh
orts
. The
U.S
. also
has
a h
ighe
r fer
tility
rate
, w
hich
is p
artly
due
to a
rela
tivel
y yo
uthf
ul im
mig
rant
pop
ulat
ion.
The
U.S
. py
ram
id th
us ta
kes a
mor
e do
me-
like
shap
e in
con
tras
t to
the
mor
e in
vert
ed
Ger
man
pyr
amid
.
Figu
re 3
: Pop
ulat
ion
Pyra
mid
s fo
r Ger
man
y an
d th
e U
nite
d St
ates
Dat
a So
urce
: U.S
. Cen
sus B
urea
u, In
tern
atio
nal D
atab
ase
14
Th
e Pa
rdee
Pap
ers
| No.
6 |
Aug
ust 2
009
G
loba
l Agi
ng: E
mer
ging
Cha
lleng
es
15
From
Pop
ulat
ion
Pyra
mid
s to
Pop
ulat
ion
Perm
utat
ions
:
Out
grow
ing
Tran
siti
on T
heor
ies
Polic
y m
aker
s exa
min
e po
pula
tion
pyra
mid
s to
map
eac
h co
untr
y on
to th
e sta
ge
of d
emog
raph
ic tr
ansit
ion.
Ove
r tim
e, th
e py
ram
id sh
ape
is ex
pect
ed to
bec
ome
mor
e un
iform
. Ana
lyst
s use
the
chan
ging
shap
es o
f pop
ulat
ion
pyra
mid
s to
det
erm
ine
how
far a
cou
ntry
has
pro
gres
sed
and
wha
t may
be
need
ed to
co
mpl
ete
tran
sitio
n. H
owev
er, t
here
are
thre
e m
ajor
tren
ds th
at su
gges
t new
(or
at le
ast m
ore
com
plex
) mod
els a
re n
eede
d. T
he fi
rst i
s rap
id fe
rtili
ty d
eclin
e th
at
cont
inue
s bey
ond
repl
acem
ent l
evel
rath
er th
an st
abili
zing
at o
r nea
r it.
The
se
cond
is a
long
evity
tren
d in
whi
ch li
fe e
xpec
tanc
y of
adu
lts c
ontin
ues t
o ris
e.
Thi
s mea
ns th
at in
crea
sing
num
bers
of a
dults
will
reac
h ol
d an
d ol
d-ol
d ag
es. I
n so
me
coun
trie
s, th
is tre
nd h
as a
lso b
een
coup
led
with
“mor
bidi
ty c
ompr
essio
n”
in w
hich
mor
e pe
ople
live
hea
lthie
r adu
lt ye
ars b
efor
e th
ey b
ecom
e ve
ry si
ck
at th
e en
d of
thei
r life
span
(Frie
s 198
9, K
alac
he e
t al.
2002
). T
he th
ird tr
end
is ho
w m
uch
mor
e ra
pidl
y de
mog
raph
ic tr
ansit
ions
are
hap
peni
ng in
the
glob
al
Sout
h in
com
paris
on w
ith W
este
rn E
urop
e’s sl
ow tr
ajec
tory
. Thi
s mea
ns th
at
coun
trie
s are
“get
ting
old
befo
re ri
ch”
as p
opul
atio
n ag
ing
outp
aces
eco
nom
ic
deve
lopm
ent.
In a
dditi
on, t
he c
lass
ic m
odel
sugg
ests
prog
ress
ive
chan
ge fr
om
high
fert
ility
and
mor
talit
y to
low
fert
ility
and
mor
talit
y. Ye
t, fe
rtili
ty a
nd/o
r m
orta
lity
trend
s hav
e al
so re
vers
ed in
som
e co
untr
ies.
In a
dditi
on to
the
elus
iven
ess o
f a u
nive
rsal
theo
retic
al fr
amew
ork
to e
xpla
in
dem
ogra
phic
tran
sitio
n, m
orbi
dity
tren
ds in
som
e co
untr
ies c
halle
nge
the
util-
ity o
f epi
dem
iolo
gic
tran
sitio
n th
eory
. The
hea
lth tr
ansit
ion
of e
pide
mio
logi
c th
eory
was
firs
t dev
ised
in th
e 19
70s,
whe
n th
ere
was
hig
h op
timism
that
med
i-ca
l tec
hnol
ogy
wou
ld e
vent
ually
cur
e m
ost h
ealth
pro
blem
s. (B
arre
tt et
al.
1998
) D
iscov
erie
s of a
ntib
iotic
s and
vac
cina
tions
led
to c
onfid
ence
that
dise
ases
cou
ld
be e
radi
cate
d. S
ince
then
, the
re h
ave
been
man
y ex
ampl
es o
f how
wid
espr
ead
use
of th
ese
drug
s lea
ds to
a m
ore
resis
tant
and
som
etim
es m
ore
viru
lent
stra
in.
One
such
exa
mpl
e is
the
use
of c
hlor
oqui
ne, w
hich
has
led
to c
hlor
oqui
ne-
resis
tant
mal
aria
(Bar
rett
et a
l. 19
98).
In a
dditi
on, d
iseas
es c
an se
em to
be
on
the
wan
e on
ly to
retu
rn a
t a la
ter t
ime,
such
as t
uber
culo
sis. T
his d
iseas
e is
asso
ciat
ed w
ith p
oor l
ivin
g co
nditi
ons.
The
per
siste
nce
of p
over
ty w
orld
wid
e is
ther
efor
e co
nsid
ered
a m
ajor
fact
or in
dise
ase
resu
rgen
ce (B
arre
tt et
al.
1998
). In
ad
ditio
n, n
ew d
iseas
es c
an e
mer
ge th
roug
h de
velo
pmen
t bey
ond
the
“dise
ases
of
civi
lizat
ion.
” Fo
r exa
mpl
e, la
rge
com
mer
cial
farm
s eas
ily sp
read
viru
ses,
whi
ch
are
then
tran
spor
ted
thro
ugh
distr
ibut
ion
of p
rodu
cts a
nd tr
avel
by
cons
umer
s. R
athe
r tha
n a
tran
sitio
n fro
m a
cute
and
infe
ctio
us to
chr
onic
and
deg
ener
ativ
e ill
ness
as t
he m
ajor
cau
se o
f dea
th, c
ount
ries s
uch
as M
exic
o in
clud
e bo
th a
s le
adin
g ca
uses
of d
eath
(Bar
rett
et a
l. 19
98).
Mor
talit
y an
d m
orbi
dity
tren
ds a
re
thus
pro
ving
mor
e co
mpl
ex th
an w
as a
ntic
ipat
ed m
ore
than
30
year
s ago
.
One
way
to e
xam
ine
the
com
plex
inte
rpla
y of
var
iabl
es sh
apin
g po
pula
tion
agin
g tr
ends
is b
y co
mpa
ring
natio
nal p
opul
atio
ns. V
aria
tions
in sh
ape
can
be p
artia
lly e
xpla
ined
by
post
-dem
ogra
phic
tren
ds, s
peed
of t
rans
ition
, the
im
pact
of p
olic
y, th
e re
vers
al o
f tre
nds,
and
the
impa
ct o
f pan
dem
ics.
In th
e ne
xt se
ctio
n, Ja
pan
prov
ides
an
exam
ple
of a
pos
t-tr
ansit
ion
coun
try,
Mex
ico
as a
dev
elop
ing
coun
try
in ra
pid
tran
sitio
n, C
hina
as a
cou
ntry
in w
hich
po
licy
has d
ram
atic
ally
impa
cted
dem
ogra
phy,
Rus
sia a
s a c
ount
ry w
ith
tren
d re
vers
als,
and
Sout
h A
fric
a as
a c
ount
ry ra
dica
lly im
pact
ed b
y H
IV/
AID
S. E
ach
tren
d pr
esen
ts c
halle
nges
in d
evel
opin
g lo
ng-t
erm
agi
ng p
olic
y.
Post
-Dem
ogra
phic
Tra
nsiti
on: V
ertic
al E
xpan
sion
and
Shr
inki
ng B
ases
. In
post
-tr
ansit
ion
coun
trie
s, fe
rtili
ty a
nd m
orta
lity
rate
s con
tinue
to d
eclin
e pa
st
prev
ious
mod
el p
redi
ctio
ns. P
opul
atio
ns m
ay sh
rink
as fe
rtili
ty ra
tes p
lung
e be
low
repl
acem
ent l
evel
, whi
le m
orta
lity
decl
ine
brin
gs g
reat
er li
fesp
an in
ea
ch g
ener
atio
n. T
oday
, the
re is
spec
ulat
ion
abou
t wha
t the
abs
olut
e ce
iling
on
long
evity
mig
ht b
e. O
ne p
rovo
cativ
e qu
estio
n is
whe
ther
life
exp
ecta
ncy
coul
d ris
e to
the
leve
l of m
axim
um li
fe e
xpec
tanc
y, w
hich
som
e es
timat
e as
12
0 ye
ars.
Ano
ther
impo
rtan
t tre
nd
is in
cha
ngin
g fa
mily
com
posit
ion
(Ben
gtso
n 20
01; T
irrito
200
3). T
his
has e
mer
ged
as m
ore
wom
en h
ave
few
er th
an tw
o ch
ildre
n an
d m
ore
peop
le li
ve in
to o
ld-o
ld a
ge. F
am-
ily tr
ees w
ith m
any
bran
ches
beg
in
to re
sem
ble
fam
ily “
bean
pole
s”
(Ben
gtso
n 20
01).
In b
eanp
ole
fam
i-lie
s, th
ere
are
no (o
r few
) sib
lings
, co
usin
s, au
nts,
and
uncl
es. A
t the
sam
e tim
e, e
ach
gene
ratio
n ca
n liv
e lo
ng
enou
gh to
see
the
birt
h of
gre
at-g
rand
child
ren.
The
resu
lt ca
n be
four
-
Toda
y, th
ere
is s
pecu
latio
n ab
out
wha
t the
abs
olut
e ce
iling
on
long
ev-
ity m
ight
be.
One
pro
voca
tive
ques
-tio
n is
whe
ther
life
exp
ecta
ncy
coul
d ris
e to
the
leve
l of m
axim
um li
fe
expe
ctan
cy, w
hich
som
e es
timat
e as
12
0 ye
ars.
16
Th
e Pa
rdee
Pap
ers
| No.
6 |
Aug
ust 2
009
G
loba
l Agi
ng: E
mer
ging
Cha
lleng
es
17
gene
ratio
n ho
useh
olds
in w
hich
par
ents
and
gra
ndch
ildre
n su
ppor
t gre
at-
gran
dpar
ents
and
a g
reat
-gra
ndch
ild.
Japa
n pr
ovid
es a
n ex
ampl
e of
a p
ost-
tran
sitio
n co
untr
y of
hig
h lif
e ex
pec-
tanc
y, lo
w fe
rtili
ty, a
nd g
reat
long
evity
. In
1950
, it w
as o
ne o
f the
“yo
ung-
est”
cou
ntrie
s in
the
wor
ld, w
ith a
med
ian
age
of 2
2; n
ow, t
he m
edia
n ag
e is
41. B
y 20
25, m
edia
n ag
e w
ill a
ppro
ach
50 (H
ewitt
200
4). T
he b
irth
rate
is
mor
e th
an o
ne-t
hird
bel
ow re
plac
emen
t lev
el. J
apan
’s pr
ojec
ted
popu
latio
n py
ram
id d
ram
atic
ally
reve
rses
the
pyra
mid
shap
e (F
igur
es 4
and
5).
Thi
s m
eans
few
er c
hild
ren
in y
oung
coh
orts
and
a g
reat
er b
ulge
as c
ompa
rativ
ely
larg
e co
hort
s age
pas
t adu
lthoo
d in
to o
ld (a
nd o
ld-o
ld) a
ge.
Figu
re 4
: Pop
ulat
ion
Pyra
mid
for J
apan
, 195
0D
ata
Sour
ce: U
nite
d N
atio
ns W
orld
Pop
ulat
ion
Pros
pect
s: 20
08 R
evisi
on
Figu
re 5
: Pop
ulat
ion
Pyra
mid
s fo
r Jap
an, 2
00
0 a
nd 2
050
Dat
a So
urce
: U.S
. Cen
sus B
urea
u, In
tern
atio
nal D
atab
ase
Dem
ogra
phic
Tra
nsiti
on a
t Hig
h Sp
eed:
Get
ting
Old
bef
ore
Get
ting
Rich
. As p
revi
-ou
sly d
iscus
sed,
dem
ogra
pher
s hav
e tr
acke
d th
e “f
ertil
ity tr
ansit
ion”
in
whi
ch b
irth
rate
s fal
l to
repl
acem
ent l
evel
. In
the
clas
sic d
emog
raph
ic tr
ansi-
tion
mod
el b
ased
on
Euro
pean
hist
ory,
this
proc
ess t
ook
man
y ge
nera
tions
. Si
nce
the
1950
s, ho
wev
er, f
ertil
ity tr
ansit
ion
in so
me
part
s of t
he w
orld
has
re
quire
d de
cade
s rat
her t
han
gene
ratio
ns. F
or e
xam
ple,
the
fert
ility
tran
si-tio
n in
Fra
nce,
in w
hich
bir
th ra
tes f
ell f
rom
six
child
ren
per w
oman
to 2
.1
child
ren,
requ
ired
115
year
s (K
inse
lla a
nd P
hilli
ps 2
005)
. The
sam
e tr
ansi-
tion
in M
exic
o, h
owev
er, t
ook
30 y
ears
(Puj
ol 1
992)
. Mea
nwhi
le, m
orta
l-ity
rate
s hav
e al
so d
ropp
ed m
ore
quic
kly
in p
arts
of t
he g
loba
l Sou
th th
an
proj
ectio
ns b
ased
on
Euro
pean
exp
erie
nce.
For
exa
mpl
e, M
exic
o’s f
ertil
ity
tran
sitio
n w
as p
rece
ded
(bet
wee
n 19
50–1
975)
by
a ne
arly
50
perc
ent d
rop
in d
eath
rate
(Puj
ol 1
992)
. In
man
y co
untr
ies,
dram
atic
dem
ogra
phic
tren
ds
are
quic
kly
outp
acin
g ec
onom
ic
grow
th. T
his c
halle
nges
the
clas
sic
mod
el in
whi
ch p
opul
atio
n gr
owth
an
d la
ter s
tabi
lizat
ion
seem
to a
c-co
mpa
ny h
ighe
r sta
ndar
ds o
f liv
ing
and
soci
al w
elfa
re e
xpan
sion.
Inst
ead,
co
untr
ies c
an “
get o
ld b
efor
e th
ey
get r
ich.
” T
his r
aise
s que
stio
ns o
f w
ho w
ill c
are
for t
hose
old
er a
dults
as
they
bec
ome
mor
e fr
ail a
nd
depe
nden
t in
coun
trie
s whe
re re
lativ
ely
few
are
cov
ered
thro
ugh
priv
ate
or
stat
e so
cial
wel
fare
pol
icie
s.
Acc
eler
atio
n of
Dem
ogra
phic
Tra
nsiti
on th
roug
h Po
licy.
Chi
na p
rovi
des a
noth
er
exam
ple
of a
cou
ntry
in w
hich
pop
ulat
ion
agin
g se
ems t
o ou
tpac
e ec
onom
ic
grow
th. C
hina
has
a p
roje
cted
pop
ulat
ion
pyra
mid
of r
apid
pop
ulat
ion
agin
g. T
his i
s cau
sed
in p
art b
y th
e fa
mily
pla
nnin
g po
licy
ofte
n kn
own
as
the
“one
chi
ld p
olic
y.”
Thi
s effo
rt to
low
er fe
rtili
ty ra
tes b
y re
stric
ting
mos
t co
uple
s to
one
child
per
fam
ily is
est
imat
ed to
hav
e “a
vert
ed o
ver 3
00 m
il-lio
n bi
rths
” (G
reen
halg
h 20
03).
The
long
er-r
ange
cha
lleng
e is
a “4
-2-1
” pr
oble
m, i
n w
hich
one
adu
lt ch
ild w
ill n
eed
to c
are
for t
wo
agin
g pa
rent
s an
d fo
ur a
ging
gra
ndpa
rent
s. T
his p
robl
em is
exa
cerb
ated
by
the
gove
rn-
men
t’s r
educ
tion
of s
ocia
l wel
fare
sup
port
dat
ing
back
to
the
1980
s
In m
any
coun
trie
s, d
ram
atic
dem
o-gr
aphi
c tr
ends
are
qui
ckly
out
paci
ng
econ
omic
gro
wth
. Thi
s ch
alle
nges
th
e cl
assi
c m
odel
in w
hich
pop
ulat
ion
grow
th a
nd la
ter s
tabi
lizat
ion
seem
to
acc
ompa
ny h
ighe
r sta
ndar
ds o
f liv
ing
and
soci
al w
elfa
re e
xpan
sion
.
18
Th
e Pa
rdee
Pap
ers
| No.
6 |
Aug
ust 2
009
G
loba
l Agi
ng: E
mer
ging
Cha
lleng
es
19
(Jia
nmin
200
7). S
ocia
l sec
urity
is n
ot w
idel
y av
aila
ble,
and
cur
rent
ly su
p-po
rts o
nly
26 p
erce
nt o
f the
old
er p
opul
atio
n (J
ianm
in 2
007)
. To
com
pare
ho
w m
uch
Chi
na h
as c
hang
ed si
nce
the
one
child
pol
icy
and
how
muc
h m
ore
the
popu
latio
n w
ill c
hang
e, se
e Fi
gure
6.
Figu
re 6
: Pop
ulat
ion
Pyra
mid
s fo
r Chi
naD
ata
Sour
ce: U
nite
d N
atio
ns W
orld
Pop
ulat
ion
Pros
pect
s: 20
08 R
evisi
on
Tran
sitio
n Re
vers
als a
nd D
evia
tions
. Whi
le d
emog
raph
ic tr
ansit
ion
has a
c-ce
lera
ted
in c
ount
ries l
ike
Chi
na, t
his t
rans
ition
has
reve
rsed
in m
any
part
s of
Eas
tern
Eur
ope
(for
exa
mpl
e, se
e C
olem
an 2
006)
. Life
exp
ecta
ncy
has
been
dec
reas
ing
in E
aste
rn E
urop
e sin
ce th
e 19
80s (
Uni
ted
Nat
ions
200
9).
The
Rus
sian
Fede
ratio
n ha
s one
of t
he lo
wes
t life
exp
ecta
ncie
s in
the
glob
al
Nor
th (U
nite
d N
atio
ns 2
009)
. Sin
ce th
e 19
90s,
mal
e m
orta
lity
has i
n-cr
ease
d, p
artic
ular
ly in
coh
orts
who
shou
ld b
e in
thei
r pro
duct
ive
year
s. A
t th
e sa
me
time,
fem
ale
infe
rtili
ty ra
tes h
ave
incr
ease
d. P
opul
atio
n pr
ojec
tions
fo
r Rus
sia a
re a
long
er-r
ange
tren
d of
pop
ulat
ion
decl
ine
(Col
eman
200
6).
The
se sh
ifts c
an b
e se
en in
com
parin
g po
pula
tion
pyra
mid
s fro
m 2
009
and
2050
(Fig
ure
7).
Figu
re 7
: Pop
ulat
ion
Pyra
mid
s fo
r Rus
sia,
20
09
and
2050
Dat
a So
urce
: U.S
. Cen
sus B
urea
u, In
tern
atio
nal D
atab
ase
Pand
emic
s. S
chol
ars h
ave
argu
ed th
at p
ande
mic
s can
not b
e er
adic
ated
but
ar
e in
stea
d pe
riodi
c an
d in
evita
ble.
The
mos
t dra
mat
ic e
xam
ple
curr
ently
ha
s bee
n H
IV/A
IDS
in S
ub-S
ahar
an A
fric
a. In
Sou
ther
n A
fric
a, th
e ha
rd-
est h
it re
gion
, pop
ulat
ion
grow
th h
as sl
owed
to 0
.6 p
erce
nt a
nd c
ontin
ues
to d
eclin
e (U
nite
d N
atio
ns 2
009)
. Life
exp
ecta
ncy
has f
alle
n to
52
from
th
e av
erag
e of
61
year
s jus
t 10
to 1
5 ye
ars a
go (U
nite
d N
atio
ns 2
009)
. A
lthou
gh a
vera
ge li
fe e
xpec
tanc
y at
bir
th h
as fa
llen
dram
atic
ally
, the
dise
ase
has p
rimar
ily ro
bbed
pop
ulat
ions
of t
he m
iddl
e ge
nera
tion,
leav
ing
olde
r ad
ults
to c
are
for t
heir
sick
and
dyin
g ch
ildre
n as
wel
l as t
heir
gran
dchi
l-dr
en. T
here
are
cur
rent
ly 2
4.7
mill
ion
adul
ts a
nd c
hild
ren
who
are
HIV
po
sitiv
e. A
s man
y as
12.
2 m
illio
n ch
ildre
n ha
ve lo
st o
ne o
r mor
e pa
rent
to
AID
S (A
bode
rin 2
007)
. At t
he sa
me
time,
ther
e ha
ve b
een
few
er a
dults
ha
ving
chi
ldre
n w
ho su
rviv
e ch
ildho
od, p
artic
ular
ly w
hen
the
child
is a
lso
infe
cted
. Thi
s res
ults
in fu
ture
tren
ds o
f sm
alle
r coh
orts
at e
very
age
, eve
n as
th
e nu
mbe
r of p
eopl
e 60
and
ove
r will
con
tinue
to b
e sig
nific
ant.
In S
outh
A
fric
a, fo
r exa
mpl
e, o
vera
ll th
e po
pula
tion
grow
th ra
te is
in d
eclin
e (U
.S.
Cen
sus B
urea
u In
tern
atio
nal D
atab
ase
2009
). H
owev
er, t
he p
ropo
rtio
n of
pe
ople
60-
plus
is e
xpec
ted
to m
ore
than
dou
ble
from
7 to
14
perc
ent o
f the
po
pula
tion
(Uni
ted
Nat
ions
200
9). T
he p
ropo
rtio
n of
peo
ple
80-p
lus i
s ex
pect
ed to
rise
from
0.6
per
cent
to m
ore
than
2 p
erce
nt o
f the
tota
l pop
u-
20
The
Pard
ee P
aper
s | N
o. 6
| A
ugus
t 200
9
Glo
bal A
ging
: Em
ergi
ng C
halle
nges
21
latio
n (U
nite
d N
atio
ns 2
009)
. Pop
ulat
ion
pyra
mid
s fro
m 2
000,
202
5, a
nd
2050
(Fig
ure
8) h
elp
illus
trat
e ho
w p
opul
atio
n ag
ing
cont
inue
s in
the
face
of
a p
ande
mic
as f
ound
in S
outh
Afr
ica.
10
Figu
re 8
: Pop
ulat
ion
Pyra
mid
s fo
r Sou
th A
fric
aD
ata
Sour
ce: U
nite
d N
atio
ns W
orld
Pop
ulat
ion
Pros
pect
s: 20
08 R
evisi
on
To su
mm
ariz
e, b
oth
the
dem
ogra
phic
and
epi
dem
iolo
gic
theo
ries u
nder
-lie
cla
ssic
mod
els b
y w
hich
dem
ogra
phic
tren
ds h
ave
been
mea
sure
d an
d m
onito
red.
The
cla
ssic
mod
els h
ave
been
use
ful f
or e
xpla
inin
g po
pula
tion
agin
g fr
om th
e hi
stor
ical
per
spec
tive
of h
ow th
ese
tren
ds fi
rst e
mer
ged
in
Euro
pe. T
hey
also
hel
p ex
plai
n ho
w p
opul
atio
n ag
ing
tren
ds a
re le
adin
g to
gl
obal
tren
ds in
whi
ch o
ld a
ge sh
ould
be
an e
xpec
tatio
n. H
owev
er, d
evel
op-
men
t is n
ot a
uni
form
pro
cess
that
cha
nges
pop
ulat
ions
from
a p
yram
id to
a
mor
e un
iform
shap
e. W
hile
var
iabl
es a
ssoc
iate
d w
ith d
evel
opm
ent—
such
10. L
ong-
rang
e po
pula
tion
proj
ectio
ns a
re ty
pica
lly b
ased
on
curr
ent a
ssum
ptio
ns th
at th
e im
pact
of
HIV
/AID
S is
decl
inin
g, a
nd th
at th
e lo
ng-t
erm
impa
ct w
ill a
tten
uate
by
2050
.
as fo
rmal
edu
catio
n, d
elay
of m
arria
ge, a
nd re
duce
d fa
mily
size
—re
mai
n im
port
ant f
or u
nder
stan
ding
dem
ogra
phic
cha
nge,
the
inte
rpla
y of
thes
e va
riabl
es is
form
ing
tren
ds in
suffi
cien
tly c
aptu
red
by c
lass
ic m
odel
s. In
som
e w
ealth
y na
tions
, con
tinua
l inv
estm
ent i
n th
e he
alth
and
wel
fare
of p
opul
a-tio
ns th
roug
h ad
ulth
ood
help
s cre
ate
“mor
bidi
ty c
ompr
essio
n” a
s peo
ple
live
long
er a
nd h
ealth
ier l
ives
. Sur
viva
l cur
ves b
ette
r res
embl
e su
rviv
al re
ctan
gles
(K
inse
lla a
nd P
hilli
ps 2
005)
. At t
he sa
me
time,
epi
dem
iolo
gic
tran
sitio
n is
not i
nevi
tabl
e or
nec
essa
rily
endu
ring.
As t
he v
aria
ble
impa
ct o
f HIV
/AID
S de
mon
stra
tes,
how
man
y pe
ople
get
sick
and
how
sick
they
get
dep
ends
in
part
on
polic
y an
d re
sour
ces.
The
har
dest
hit
area
s of t
his g
loba
l pan
dem
ic
are
also
in th
e po
ores
t reg
ions
of t
he w
orld
.
Ove
rall,
dem
ogra
phic
tren
ds d
emon
stra
te h
ow p
opul
atio
n ag
ing
has b
ecom
e a
part
of d
evel
opm
ent r
athe
r tha
n ap
art f
rom
it a
s an
outc
ome
or re
sult.
As
one
ages
, the
env
ironm
ent,
heal
th, a
nd li
fest
yle
choi
ces m
ade
over
the
year
s im
pact
hea
lth a
nd e
very
day
func
tioni
ng in
to o
ld a
ge. G
oing
forw
ard,
pol
icy
mak
ers n
eed
to te
ase
apar
t the
inte
rpla
y of
dev
elop
men
t and
dem
ogra
phic
va
riabl
es w
ithin
eac
h co
untr
y co
ntex
t to
bett
er u
nder
stan
d th
e in
terp
lay
of d
emog
raph
y, d
evel
opm
ent i
n th
e gl
obal
Sou
th, a
nd “
post
-indu
stria
l”
deve
lopm
ent o
f the
glo
bal N
orth
. The
key
is n
ot d
evel
opm
ent a
s a li
near
pr
oces
s but
rath
er d
evel
opm
ent a
s a c
onte
xt a
ffect
ing
heal
th a
nd b
ehav
iors
of
age
coh
orts
ove
r tim
e. Y
et, a
ging
pol
icy
fram
ewor
ks te
nd to
focu
s muc
h m
ore
narr
owly
. In
agin
g po
licy
disc
ours
e, a
ging
bec
omes
a p
robl
em th
roug
h th
e pr
oces
s of d
evel
opm
ent.
Dev
elop
men
t act
s lik
e a
fulc
rum
that
tips
old
ag
e fr
om a
pos
itive
to n
egat
ive
soci
al a
ttrib
ute.
Att
entio
n is
limite
d to
old
er
adul
ts a
s fra
il, d
epen
dent
, and
vul
nera
ble.
The
lim
itatio
ns o
f cur
rent
agi
ng
polic
y ar
e ad
dres
sed
in th
e ne
xt se
ctio
n.
III.
POPU
LAT
ION
AG
ING
AS
SOC
IAL
PRO
BLEM
: PO
LIC
Y T
REN
DS
As m
entio
ned
prev
ious
ly, g
loba
l disc
ussio
n of
agi
ng p
olic
y ce
nter
s on
pen-
sions
and
eld
er c
are.
The
se k
inds
of p
olic
ies w
ere
first
cre
ated
as p
art o
f sta
te
wel
fare
syst
ems i
n W
este
rn E
urop
e. T
he e
arlie
st w
as in
Ger
man
y, w
here
so
cial
insu
ranc
e fo
r tho
se 6
5-pl
us w
as st
arte
d in
188
9. S
imila
r pol
icie
s wer
e de
velo
ped
in th
e A
mer
icas
and
in In
dia
in th
e 19
20s a
nd 1
930s
. Agi
ng
polic
y be
gan
spre
adin
g ar
ound
the
wor
ld in
195
0 th
roug
h a
conf
eren
ce o
n
22
Th
e Pa
rdee
Pap
ers
| No.
6 |
Aug
ust 2
009
G
loba
l Agi
ng: E
mer
ging
Cha
lleng
es
2
3
the
glob
al u
se o
f agi
ng p
olic
y. T
oday
, pen
sion
polic
ies a
re fo
und
in m
ost
coun
trie
s but
cov
erag
e is
ofte
n lim
ited
to p
artic
ular
gro
ups,
such
as c
ivil
serv
ants
, the
mili
tary
, and
wor
kers
in th
e fo
rmal
sect
or. O
nly
30 p
erce
nt o
f pe
ople
60-
plus
are
cov
ered
thro
ugh
pens
ion
polic
ies w
orld
wid
e (V
ince
nt
2003
).
The
hist
oric
al, e
cono
mic
, and
dem
ogra
phic
con
text
of h
alf a
cen
tury
ago
de
term
ined
the
way
in w
hich
agi
ng h
as b
een
defin
ed a
s a p
olic
y pr
oble
m.
Thi
s, in
turn
, has
shap
ed su
bseq
uent
pol
icy
solu
tions
. Thu
s, w
hile
the
cur-
rent
pol
icy
crisi
s has
bee
n id
entifi
ed th
roug
h de
mog
raph
ic st
atist
ics,
long
er-
term
solu
tions
may
lie
in re
form
ing
the
mea
ning
of a
ging
in e
cono
mic
and
so
cial
pol
icy.
Thi
s se
ctio
n be
gins
with
pop
ular
dis
cuss
ion
of a
ging
as
a “F
lorid
a pr
oble
m”
norm
ally
con
fined
to w
ealth
y na
tions
. Aca
dem
ic th
eory
lin
king
agi
ng w
ith d
evel
opm
ent i
s nex
t exp
lore
d be
fore
mov
ing
to c
urre
nt
polic
y tr
ends
for a
ddre
ssin
g po
pula
tion
agin
g. S
ugge
stio
ns fo
r new
pol
icy
dire
ctio
ns a
re m
ade
usin
g et
hnog
raph
ic re
sear
ch o
n ho
w o
lder
adu
lts a
ddre
ss
the
chal
leng
es o
f old
age
.
Popu
lati
on A
ging
as
a Fl
orid
a Pr
oble
m
Con
sider
the
follo
win
g qu
ote
from
a jo
urna
list:
W
ant t
o se
e w
hat t
he fu
ture
has
in st
ore
for
Can
ada?
For
get a
bout
cr
ysta
l bal
ls, so
oths
ayer
s and
opi
ning
pun
dits
. The
futu
re o
f the
cou
ntry
is
unfo
ldin
g in
real
tim
e in
our
favo
rite
win
ter g
etaw
ay d
estin
atio
n, th
e st
ate
of F
lorid
a (G
riffit
hs 2
007)
.
Des
pite
the
inte
rdep
ende
nce
of fa
ctor
s und
erly
ing
popu
latio
n ag
ing
and
deve
lopm
ent t
rend
s, th
e ab
ove
quot
atio
n ca
ptur
es m
uch
of th
e po
licy
dis-
cuss
ion
on p
opul
atio
n ag
ing.
The
imag
e of
Flo
rida
illus
trat
es th
e do
min
ant
asso
ciat
ions
with
agi
ng fo
und
in p
olic
y an
d po
pula
r per
cept
ion:
Old
age
m
eans
retir
emen
t; m
eans
gro
win
g in
to a
mor
e fr
ail a
nd d
epen
dent
phy
si-ca
l and
cog
nitiv
e st
ate;
mea
ns p
ress
ure
on h
ealth
and
oth
er c
are
syst
ems t
o ac
com
mod
ate
the
dem
and;
mea
ns a
ssist
ed li
ving
com
mun
ities
. In
shor
t, Fl
orid
a br
ings
up
two
of th
e m
ain
issu
es th
at d
omin
ate
polic
y di
scus
-sio
ns o
n ag
ing,
par
ticul
arly
in th
e gl
obal
Nor
th: r
etire
men
t and
long
-ter
m
depe
nden
cy.
Cou
ntrie
s’ in
divi
dual
dem
ogra
phic
tren
ds c
an b
e ex
amin
ed to
det
erm
ine
whe
n th
ey w
ill re
ach
the
Flor
ida
stag
e. T
he a
ssum
ptio
n is
that
pol
icy
will
ha
ve to
be
deve
lope
d gl
obal
ly a
s dem
ogra
phic
cha
nge
brin
gs re
gion
s with
in
the
Flor
ida
rang
e. T
he d
omin
ant t
heor
etic
al fr
amew
ork
unde
rlyin
g ag
ing
polic
y (a
s fou
nd in
Eur
ope,
the
U.S
., an
d el
sew
here
) com
es fr
om a
noth
er
clas
sic m
odel
of t
rans
ition
s. A
s disc
usse
d ne
xt, d
evel
opm
ent i
s aga
in th
e dr
iver
of c
hang
e in
this
mod
el. T
he re
sult,
how
ever
, is n
egat
ive.
Mod
erni
zatio
n (I
ndus
tria
lizat
ion)
The
ory
as a
The
ory
of A
ging
and
Dev
elop
men
t. In
the
early
197
0s, C
owgi
ll an
d H
olm
es d
emon
stra
ted
thro
ugh
com
para
-tiv
e na
tiona
l res
earc
h th
at th
e “s
tatu
s” o
f old
er a
dults
gen
eral
ly d
ecre
ases
as
cou
ntrie
s dev
elop
and
indu
stria
lize
(Coh
en 1
998;
Cow
gill
and
Hol
mes
19
72).
Sinc
e th
en, a
dditi
onal
scho
lars
hav
e cr
itiqu
ed, m
odifi
ed, a
nd a
dded
to
disc
ussio
n of
how
and
why
this
happ
ens.
As i
n de
mog
raph
ic tr
ansit
ion
theo
ry, t
he k
ey fa
ctor
s are
not
foun
d in
the
chan
ging
mod
e of
pro
duct
ion
per s
e as
muc
h as
in so
cial
stru
ctur
al c
hang
es th
at a
ccom
pany
a sh
ift fr
om
econ
omie
s bas
ed o
n ag
ricul
ture
to th
ose
of a
n in
dust
rializ
ed w
age
econ
omy.
T
hese
fact
ors i
nclu
de e
duca
tion,
mig
ratio
n, a
nd se
cula
rizat
ion.
Tha
t is,
in “
trad
ition
al”
or “
prem
oder
n” so
ciet
ies,
olde
r adu
lts c
omm
and
resp
ect
thro
ugh
cont
rol o
f res
ourc
es, k
now
ledg
e, a
nd a
scrip
tive
role
s. T
hey
own
the
land
, whi
ch is
the
sour
ce o
f wea
lth, a
nd th
ey a
re m
ost c
lose
ly a
ssoc
iate
d w
ith p
ower
ful a
nces
tors
. You
nger
gen
erat
ions
turn
to th
em fo
r adv
ice
as
they
gro
w in
to re
spon
sible
mem
bers
of t
he g
roup
. At t
he sa
me
time,
old
er
gene
ratio
ns c
an re
ly o
n ch
ildre
n an
d gr
andc
hild
ren
to h
elp
them
with
eve
ry-
day
task
s, pa
rtic
ular
ly if
thei
r phy
sical
or c
ogni
tive
func
tioni
ng d
eclin
es. A
s de
scrib
ed b
y N
ana
Apt
:
Tr
aditi
onal
ly, t
he “
fam
ily”
espe
cial
ly w
as th
e gr
eate
st fo
rce
that
gav
e se
cu-
rity
to it
s poo
r, its
chi
ldre
n, a
nd it
s old
er m
embe
rs. O
lder
per
sons
form
ed
an in
tegr
al p
art o
f the
civ
il so
ciet
y fa
bric
and
pla
yed
an im
port
ant r
ole
in
harm
oniz
ing
rela
tions
mad
e te
nse
thro
ugh
pove
rty,
war
, and
con
flict
. The
m
ost s
trik
ing
feat
ure
of tr
aditi
onal
car
e sy
stem
s in
Asia
, Lat
in A
mer
ica,
an
d A
fric
a is
that
they
are
root
ed in
com
plex
fam
ily sy
stem
s tha
t inc
lude
re
cipr
ocal
car
e an
d as
sista
nce
amon
g ge
nera
tions
, with
old
er p
eopl
e no
t on
ly o
n th
e re
ceiv
ing
end
but a
lso fu
lfilli
ng a
n ac
tive,
giv
ing
one
(Apt
20
02).
24
Th
e Pa
rdee
Pap
ers
| No.
6 |
Aug
ust 2
009
G
loba
l Agi
ng: E
mer
ging
Cha
lleng
es
2
5
Dev
elop
men
t, ho
wev
er, b
rings
in c
ompl
icat
ing
fact
ors.
The
firs
t is t
he
pres
sure
of p
opul
atio
n gr
owth
, whi
ch h
elps
pus
h yo
unge
r gen
erat
ions
out
of
rura
l are
as in
sear
ch o
f bet
ter o
ppor
tuni
ties.
Mov
ing
to c
ities
and
oth
er
coun
trie
s, th
ey tu
rn to
form
al e
duca
tion
for t
rain
ing
and
entr
y in
to th
e w
age
econ
omy.
Thr
ough
sepa
ratio
n fr
om fa
mily
and
eld
ers b
ack
hom
e, th
eir
kins
hip
ties l
oose
n an
d th
ey a
re e
xpos
ed to
bot
h se
cula
r life
styl
es a
nd o
ther
re
ligio
ns (s
uch
as C
hrist
iani
ty).
Thi
s cre
ates
a g
ener
atio
n ga
p in
whi
ch th
e yo
unge
r gen
erat
ions
eve
ntua
lly su
rpas
s the
ir pa
rent
s in
mat
eria
l and
soci
al
succ
ess.
The
se d
iffer
ence
s are
gre
ater
in th
e fir
st g
ener
atio
n of
dev
elop
men
t, an
d th
en d
imin
ish a
s the
you
nger
gen
erat
ion
beco
mes
the
olde
r coh
ort.
Ove
r tim
e, c
ontin
ued
popu
latio
n gr
owth
into
the
wag
e la
bor e
cono
my
crea
tes c
ompe
titio
n th
at is
par
tially
reso
lved
thro
ugh
retir
emen
t pol
icie
s. A
t th
is po
int,
olde
r adu
lts fi
nd th
emse
lves
dev
alue
d as
they
leav
e th
e ro
les c
on-
sider
ed p
rodu
ctiv
e an
d im
port
ant i
n m
oder
n ec
onom
ies.
In a
dditi
on, t
hey
can
no lo
nger
rely
on
youn
ger g
ener
atio
ns to
pro
vide
car
e be
caus
e of
geo
-gr
aphi
cal s
epar
atio
n an
d a
new
em
phas
is on
nuc
lear
rath
er th
an e
xten
ded
fam
ily sy
stem
s. T
he o
vera
ll re
sult
is an
inve
rsio
n of
soci
oeco
nom
ic st
atus
fr
om o
ld to
you
ng, a
s val
ues a
nd re
sour
ces s
hift
to y
oung
er g
ener
atio
ns.
In a
pplic
atio
n of
mod
erni
zatio
n th
eory
to c
urre
nt d
evel
opm
ent c
onte
xts,
som
e sc
hola
rs e
mph
asiz
e su
bjec
tive
chan
ge (A
bode
rin 2
004b
). T
hey
link
agin
g an
d de
velo
pmen
t as a
shift
in c
ultu
ral v
alue
s and
soci
al n
orm
s. O
th-
ers,
how
ever
, arg
ue th
at e
lder
resp
ect p
ersis
ts b
ut th
e pr
oble
m li
es in
the
uneq
ual b
enefi
ts o
f dev
elop
men
t as a
glo
bal p
roce
ss (A
bode
rin 2
004b
). T
he st
ress
of d
evel
opm
ent b
reak
s fam
ily so
lidar
ity a
nd m
akes
it d
ifficu
lt fo
r fam
ilies
to c
are
for o
lder
mem
bers
. Whi
le c
ultu
re p
ersis
ts, t
he o
bjec
tive
mea
ns o
f exp
ress
ing
cultu
ral i
deal
s is e
rodi
ng.
Eith
er a
ppro
ach
supp
orts
a b
ifurc
ated
theo
ry o
f agi
ng in
soci
ety:
succ
ess-
ful s
ocia
l, ec
onom
ic, a
nd p
oliti
cal c
hang
e pa
rado
xica
lly ru
ins t
he so
cial
st
ruct
ure
and
soci
al ti
es o
n w
hich
agi
ng a
dults
rely
for w
hat g
eron
tolo
gist
s ca
ll “s
ucce
ssfu
l agi
ng.”
Old
age
has
bec
ome
a ca
sual
ty o
f dev
elop
men
t. T
his a
rgum
ent h
elps
nat
ural
ize
calls
for s
tate
supp
ort a
nd fo
rmal
inte
rven
-tio
n. T
hus,
agin
g po
licy
beco
mes
self-
perp
etua
ting:
firs
t hel
ping
to p
rodu
ce
prob
lem
s of r
etire
men
t, de
pend
ence
, and
exc
lusio
n, a
nd th
en o
fferin
g po
licy
solu
tions
to e
nabl
e ol
d pe
ople
to b
e se
cure
, ind
epen
dent
, and
inte
grat
ed
with
in so
ciet
y. T
his p
roce
ss fu
els a
con
tinua
l nee
d fo
r sup
port
as m
ore
peop
le re
ach
the
age
defin
ed a
nd a
ddre
ssed
in p
olic
y as
frai
l, de
pend
ent,
and
vuln
erab
le.
Popu
lati
on A
ging
as
Long
er-R
ange
Pol
icy
Cha
lleng
e
Giv
en th
at o
ld a
ge is
ess
entia
lly d
efine
d in
agi
ng p
olic
y as
an
antit
hesis
to
deve
lopm
ent (
i.e.,
as u
npro
duct
ive
and
depe
nden
t), i
t is n
ot su
rpris
ing
whe
n po
licy
mak
ers r
egar
d lo
nger
-ran
ge d
emog
raph
ic tr
ends
with
ala
rm.
Thi
s is o
ften
exp
ress
ed th
roug
h de
pend
ency
ratio
s, in
whi
ch c
urre
nt a
nd
futu
re d
epen
denc
y of
old
er a
dults
on
the
wor
king
pop
ulat
ion
is ca
lcul
ated
as
the
num
ber o
f peo
ple
15–6
4 re
lativ
e to
thos
e 65
-plu
s.11 T
hese
ratio
s are
a
prox
y fo
r mea
surin
g th
e nu
mbe
r of p
eopl
e pa
ying
into
con
trib
utor
y pe
n-sio
n pr
ogra
ms r
elat
ive
to p
ensio
ners
. The
cau
se o
f cris
is is
part
ially
foun
d in
pr
evio
us u
nder
estim
atio
ns o
f cur
rent
pop
ulat
ion
agin
g tr
ends
. For
exa
mpl
e,
the
Uni
ted
Stat
es’ S
ocia
l Sec
urity
pro
gram
beg
an in
193
5. B
enefi
ciar
ies
had
to b
e at
leas
t 65
and
the
prog
ram
cov
ered
onl
y a
smal
l per
cent
age
of
that
gro
up. S
ocia
l Sec
urity
was
ex
pand
ed to
cov
er o
lder
adu
lts b
y th
e ea
rly 1
970s
(Hud
son
2009
). A
t tha
t tim
e, th
ere
wer
e ab
out 1
6 pe
ople
65-
plus
per
100
wor
k-in
g pe
ople
age
d 15
–64
(Uni
ted
Nat
ions
200
9). A
s bab
y bo
omer
s re
ache
d pe
ak w
orki
ng a
ges,
the
assu
mpt
ion
was
that
dep
ende
ncy
ratio
s wou
ld c
hang
e bu
t rem
ain
sust
aina
ble
(Man
ton
1991
). H
owev
er, t
his
was
bas
ed o
n th
e as
sum
ptio
n th
at li
fe e
xpec
tanc
y w
ould
rem
ain
clos
e to
65
rath
er th
an ri
se to
78
and
with
out k
now
ing
how
muc
h fe
rtili
ty ra
tes m
ight
de
clin
e (M
anto
n 19
91).
Toda
y, th
e de
pend
ency
ratio
is 1
9 (p
eopl
e 65
-plu
s pe
r 100
peo
ple
ages
15–
64) a
nd p
roje
cted
to in
crea
se to
35
as b
aby
boom
-
11. D
epen
denc
y ra
tios c
an b
e ca
lcul
ated
as e
lder
car
e ra
tios,
as e
xpre
ssed
abo
ve o
r as t
he d
epen
denc
y of
ol
der a
dults
and
chi
ldre
n re
lativ
e to
wor
king
adu
lts; t
hus,
the
num
bers
of p
eopl
e ov
er 6
5 an
d un
der 1
5 re
lativ
e to
thos
e 15
–64.
Ano
ther
stat
istic
is a
“pa
rent
supp
ort r
atio
” of
peo
ple
85-p
lus r
elat
ive
to th
ose
in th
e yo
unge
r gen
erat
ion
that
are
like
ly to
be
the
care
give
rs (a
ge 5
0–64
). A
ccor
ding
to a
200
2 re
port
fr
om th
e M
adrid
con
fere
nce
on a
ging
, “gl
obal
ly, t
here
wer
e fe
wer
than
2 ‘o
ldes
t-ol
d’ ”
peop
le fo
r eve
ry
100
peop
le a
ged
50–6
4 in
195
0. B
y 20
00, t
his r
atio
was
4 to
1. B
y 20
50, i
t is p
roje
cted
to in
crea
se to
11
peop
le 8
5-pl
us p
er 1
00 p
eopl
e 50
–64
(Uni
ted
Nat
ions
200
2).
Giv
en th
at o
ld a
ge is
ess
entia
lly
defin
ed in
agi
ng p
olic
y as
an
antit
hesi
s to
dev
elop
men
t (i.e
., as
unp
rodu
ctiv
e an
d de
pend
ent)
, it i
s no
t sur
pris
ing
whe
n po
licy
mak
ers
rega
rd lo
nger
-ra
nge
dem
ogra
phic
tren
ds w
ith a
larm
.
26
Th
e Pa
rdee
Pap
ers
| No.
6 |
Aug
ust 2
009
G
loba
l Agi
ng: E
mer
ging
Cha
lleng
es
27
ers r
etire
(Uni
ted
Nat
ions
200
9). T
his p
roje
ctio
n pr
oble
m is
not
lim
ited
to E
urop
e, N
orth
Am
eric
a, a
nd Ja
pan.
In L
atin
Am
eric
a, m
ost p
ensio
n pr
ogra
ms b
egan
in th
e 19
20s a
nd 1
930s
, whe
n lif
e ex
pect
ancy
was
abo
ut
35 (S
egur
a-U
bier
go 2
007)
. Ret
irem
ent a
ges w
ere
set a
t 45
or 5
0. O
ver
time,
thos
e pe
nsio
n pr
ogra
ms e
xpan
ded
cove
rage
and
life
exp
ecta
ncy
also
in
crea
sed.
Tod
ay, l
ife e
xpec
tanc
y ha
s rise
n by
dec
ades
. For
exa
mpl
e, li
fe
expe
ctan
cy is
72
in N
icar
agua
and
78
in C
osta
Ric
a (U
nite
d N
atio
ns 2
009)
. O
n a
glob
al sc
ale,
dep
ende
ncy
ratio
s are
risin
g. T
he g
loba
l dep
ende
ncy
ratio
rose
from
8 to
11
(peo
ple
65-p
lus p
er 1
00 w
orki
ng-a
ge p
eopl
e 15
–64)
be
twee
n 19
50 a
nd 2
005
(Uni
ted
Nat
ions
200
9). B
y 20
50, t
his r
atio
will
fu
rthe
r rise
to 2
5 (U
nite
d N
atio
ns 2
007)
.
Dan
gero
us D
epen
denc
y Ra
tios o
r a P
robl
em o
f Defi
ning
Old
Age
? Lo
okin
g at
cur
-re
nt n
umbe
rs, s
ome
argu
e th
at p
opul
atio
n ag
ing
cons
titut
es a
nat
ural
disa
s-te
r for
oth
erw
ise p
rosp
erou
s nat
ions
(Pet
erso
n 19
99).
Thi
s ala
rm is
like
ly to
sp
ike
in th
e cu
rren
t eco
nom
ic re
cess
ion.
Man
y su
gges
tions
for h
ow to
ave
rt
this
crisi
s can
be
inte
rpre
ted
as a
n ef
fort
to re
calib
rate
dep
ende
ncy
ratio
s. O
ne a
ppro
ach
is to
cha
nge
popu
latio
n de
mog
raph
ics.
For e
xam
ple,
Wes
tern
Eu
rope
an c
ount
ries a
nd Ja
pan
are
reco
nsid
erin
g an
d re
visin
g im
mig
ratio
n po
licy.
Japa
n ha
s bee
n ac
cuse
d of
tryi
ng to
“ex
port
” ol
der a
dults
by
enco
ur-
agin
g lo
ng-t
erm
car
e in
Eur
ope
and
othe
r par
ts o
f Asia
(Mar
tin 1
991)
. A
long
er-t
erm
stra
tegy
is fo
und
in th
e pr
o-na
talis
t pol
icie
s of s
ome
Asia
n an
d W
este
rn E
urop
ean
coun
trie
s, so
that
an
initi
al in
crea
se in
ove
rall
depe
n-de
ncy
ratio
s will
eve
ntua
lly p
ay o
ff in
a “
dem
ogra
phic
div
iden
d” o
f wor
kers
(R
ober
tson
200
7). S
inga
pore
, for
exa
mpl
e, o
ffers
stat
e-sp
onso
red
datin
g se
rvic
es a
s wel
l as c
hild
supp
ort (
Mar
tin 1
991)
. Ano
ther
app
roac
h is
to
rede
fine
the
boun
dary
bet
wee
n ol
d an
d yo
ung
in a
ging
pol
icy.
Giv
en h
ealth
ga
ins t
hat o
ften
acc
ompa
ny lo
ngev
ity g
ains
, the
mos
t log
ical
app
roac
h is
to
incr
ease
the
num
ber t
hat d
efine
s who
is o
ld (H
udso
n 20
09).
Seve
nty
year
s of
age
thus
bec
omes
the
new
60.
In th
e U
.S.,
for e
xam
ple,
the
age
for S
ocia
l Se
curit
y el
igib
ility
is ri
sing.
Ano
ther
pol
icy
adap
tatio
n is
to m
odify
the
defin
ition
of o
ld a
s ret
ired
and
unpr
oduc
tive
by su
ppor
ting
olde
r wor
kers
th
roug
h re
trai
ning
, ena
blin
g en
viro
nmen
ts, o
r par
t-tim
e w
ork.
For
exa
mpl
e,
Japa
n is
deve
lopi
ng te
chno
logy
, suc
h as
robo
ts, t
hat c
an e
nabl
e ol
der w
ork-
ers t
o be
pro
duct
ive
(Tirr
ito 2
003)
.12
On
the
othe
r han
d, w
hy is
chr
onol
ogic
al a
ge th
e be
st p
roxy
for o
ld a
ge? I
n po
licy,
com
mon
defi
nitio
ns o
f old
age
are
50,
60,
and
65.
Whi
le a
naly
sts
ofte
n ad
d in
the
cave
at th
at a
ge is
not
just
a n
umbe
r and
that
chr
onol
ogic
al
age
is m
erel
y a
conv
enie
nt p
roxy
fo
r agi
ng a
nd o
ld a
ge, r
elia
nce
on th
ese
num
bers
per
sists
. One
w
ay to
exp
lore
add
ition
al w
ays t
o de
fine
agin
g is
thro
ugh
ethn
o-gr
aphi
c re
sear
ch. A
s see
n in
the
disc
ussio
n ab
out a
ging
in th
e gl
obal
Sou
th, t
here
may
be
varia
-tio
ns in
soci
al n
orm
s and
cul
tura
l va
lues
that
hav
e be
en u
nder
uti-
lized
by
polic
y m
aker
s. In
add
ition
, sch
olar
s can
now
stud
y th
e lo
nger
-ter
m
impa
ct th
at a
ging
pol
icy
has h
ad in
shap
ing
the
soci
al st
ruct
ure
and
cultu
ral
mea
ning
s of o
ld a
ge.
Less
ons
from
Eth
nogr
aphi
c Re
sear
ch:
“Old
age
is ju
st a
num
ber a
nd m
ine
is u
nlis
ted”
Ethn
ogra
phic
stud
y of
agi
ng re
veal
s tha
t the
re is
a c
omm
on id
ea o
f old
ag
e. A
cros
s mos
t cul
ture
s, th
ere
is a
term
for
whe
n so
meo
ne b
ecom
es so
fr
ail a
nd d
ebili
tate
d th
roug
h ag
ing
that
they
bec
ome
tota
lly d
epen
dent
up
on o
ther
s.13 T
he e
mpi
rical
que
stio
n is
not w
heth
er b
ut w
hen,
how
, and
w
hy th
is ha
ppen
s. O
ften
, peo
ple
dela
y ge
ttin
g ol
d an
d pr
epar
e fo
r old
age
th
roug
h re
cipr
ocal
exc
hang
e an
d th
e “s
ocia
l cap
ital”
of i
nfor
mal
net
wor
ks.
In m
ore
yout
h-or
ient
ed so
ciet
ies,
not o
nly
is ol
d ag
e av
oide
d bu
t also
the
entir
e ag
ing
proc
ess.
“Ant
i-agi
ng”
effo
rts t
o im
prov
e he
alth
, pro
duct
ivity
, an
d w
ell-b
eing
then
hel
p re
aliz
e an
incr
easin
gly
popu
lar e
ffort
to e
njoy
12. J
apan
has
also
dev
elop
ed ro
bots
to re
plac
e w
orke
rs a
nd to
pro
vide
eld
er c
are
(Rob
erts
on 2
007;
Son
g-m
in, H
ada,
and
Tak
ase
2004
). In
a se
nse,
dep
ende
ncy
ratio
s cou
ld th
en b
e re
calib
rate
d as
robo
ts a
re u
sed
to re
plac
e a
proj
ecte
d 3.
5 m
illio
n w
orke
rs b
y 20
25 (N
oor 2
008)
. 13
. For
exa
mpl
e, K
ertz
er a
nd K
eith
writ
e th
at m
ost c
ultu
res i
nclu
de a
term
for “
decr
epit”
old
er a
dults
(K
ertz
er a
nd K
eith
198
4).
In p
olic
y, c
omm
on d
efini
tions
of o
ld
age
are
50, 6
0, a
nd 6
5. W
hile
ana
lyst
s of
ten
add
in th
e ca
veat
that
age
is n
ot
just
a n
umbe
r and
that
chr
onol
ogic
al
age
is m
erel
y a
conv
enie
nt p
roxy
for
agin
g an
d ol
d ag
e, re
lianc
e on
thes
e nu
mbe
rs p
ersi
sts.
28
The
Pard
ee P
aper
s | N
o. 6
| A
ugus
t 200
9
Glo
bal A
ging
: Em
ergi
ng C
halle
nges
29
the
lifes
tyle
of y
oung
er c
ohor
ts. I
n m
ore
“ger
onto
crat
ic”
(or w
hat s
ome
call
trad
ition
al) s
ocie
ties,
grow
ing
olde
r is fi
rst a
ssoc
iate
d w
ith b
ecom
ing
a m
atur
e ad
ult (
Ker
tzer
and
Kei
th 1
984)
. Agi
ng, t
hen,
is a
pos
itive
pro
cess
on
ly a
chie
ved
thro
ugh
such
life
cycl
e m
ilest
ones
as g
ettin
g m
arrie
d, h
avin
g ch
ildre
n, h
eadi
ng h
ouse
hold
s, of
ficia
ting
impo
rtan
t life
cer
emon
ies,
and
mou
rnin
g th
e de
ath
of o
ne’s
pare
nts (
for d
iscus
sion
in S
ub-S
ahar
an A
fric
a,
see
Opp
ong
2004
). T
hus,
yout
h so
ciet
ies m
ay b
e le
d by
peo
ple
in th
eir 4
0s,
and
youn
ger g
ener
atio
ns tu
rn to
eld
ers f
or a
dvic
e. In
one
’s ca
reer
, evi
denc
e of
life
long
mat
urity
is a
freq
uent
crit
erio
n fo
r cho
osin
g le
ader
s. La
ter i
n lif
e,
thos
e w
ho d
o be
com
e ol
d an
d fr
ail c
an th
en tu
rn to
thos
e th
ey p
revi
ously
he
lped
. As e
xpla
ined
in a
n A
fric
an p
rove
rb, “
Just
as e
lder
s hel
p ch
ildre
n cu
t th
eir fi
rst t
eeth
, so
shou
ld a
dult
child
ren
help
eld
ers w
ho lo
se th
eirs
.”
Des
pite
var
iatio
ns in
how
peo
ple
grow
old
acr
oss c
ultu
res,
relia
nce
on fa
mily
an
d in
form
al n
etw
orks
for o
ld a
ge c
are
is ne
arly
uni
vers
al.14
In o
ther
wor
ds,
the
cultu
ral i
deal
in w
hich
fam
ily sh
ould
pro
vide
car
e fo
r old
age
end
ures
as
an
inte
rnat
iona
l soc
ial n
orm
. In
man
y co
untr
ies,
wiv
es a
nd d
augh
ters
as
sum
e m
ost r
espo
nsib
ility
for a
ging
rela
tives
. Ins
titut
iona
lizat
ion
is av
oide
d as
una
ccep
tabl
e or
a la
st re
sort
. Onl
y in
the
very
late
stag
es o
f life
mig
ht
peop
le in
wea
lthie
r nat
ions
ent
er a
nur
sing
hom
e or
hos
pita
l. T
he a
vera
ge
nurs
ing
hom
e st
ay in
the
Uni
ted
Stat
es, f
or e
xam
ple,
is le
ss th
an th
ree
year
s (C
DC
200
9).
How
can
pol
icy
defin
ition
s of a
ging
and
old
age
bet
ter r
eflec
t soc
ial e
xper
i-en
ce? E
thno
grap
hic
rese
arch
pro
vide
s dat
a on
how
eve
ryda
y re
aliti
es m
ay
cont
radi
ct p
olic
y-ba
sed
assu
mpt
ions
. The
se d
ata
can
also
pro
vide
idea
s for
ho
w to
refo
rm p
olic
y to
bet
ter r
eflec
t cur
rent
and
futu
re so
cial
and
eco
-no
mic
tren
ds a
ffect
ed b
y po
pula
tion
agin
g. T
he fo
llow
ing
disc
ussio
n is
base
d on
fiel
d re
sear
ch a
nd in
terv
iew
s con
duct
ed in
the
U.S
. and
Gha
na
(Cra
mpt
on 2
007)
. Thi
s wor
k pr
ovid
es in
sight
into
who
is o
ld in
one
w
ealth
y, a
ging
nat
ion
and
one
deve
lopi
ng a
nd p
oor n
atio
n.
No
Agi
ng in
the
USA
? O
ne o
f the
cha
lleng
es in
con
duct
ing
rese
arch
on
old
age
in th
e U
.S. i
s a d
iscon
nect
bet
wee
n th
e co
nstr
uctio
n of
old
age
in p
olic
y,
14. F
or e
xam
ple,
Tirr
ito w
rites
that
fam
ily su
ppor
t is a
com
mon
trad
ition
(Tirr
ito 2
003)
. Abo
derin
w
rites
bot
h of
trad
ition
al n
orm
s and
end
urin
g re
lianc
e on
fam
ily su
ppor
t in
deve
lopi
ng a
nd d
evel
oped
re
gion
s (A
bode
rin 2
006)
.
prof
essio
nal,
and
advo
cacy
wor
k on
the
one
hand
and
eve
ryda
y so
cial
mea
n-in
gs a
nd p
ract
ices
on
the
othe
r. T
his d
iscon
nect
is se
en, f
or e
xam
ple,
whe
n an
adu
lt sig
ns u
p fo
r Soc
ial S
ecur
ity a
nd th
en d
eliv
ers m
eals
on w
heel
s to
seni
ors o
ut o
f sym
path
y fo
r the
eld
erly
, or w
hen
a 70
-yea
r-ol
d pr
ofes
siona
l de
liver
s a sp
eech
on
the
need
s of o
lder
per
sons
as t
he a
pex
of a
dist
ingu
ished
ca
reer
rath
er th
an a
spok
espe
rson
for t
his f
rail,
vul
nera
ble,
and
dep
ende
nt
popu
latio
n.
The
que
stio
n “W
ho is
old
?” c
an b
e th
us b
oth
easy
and
pro
voca
tive
to
answ
er. A
lthou
gh so
met
imes
take
n ab
ack,
Am
eric
ans o
ften
star
t with
the
easy
ans
wer
of a
bur
eauc
ratic
cho
ice.
One
opt
ion
is th
e ag
e of
60
used
in th
e O
lder
Am
eric
ans A
ct. A
noth
er is
the
age
of 6
5 hi
stor
ical
ly u
sed
for S
ocia
l Se
curit
y. W
hen
resis
ting
an e
asy
answ
er, h
owev
er, c
hron
olog
ical
age
is o
ften
es
chew
ed in
favo
r of c
hang
es in
iden
tity
and/
or fu
nctio
ning
. Fo
r exa
mpl
e, a
70
-plu
s per
son
said
:
M
y m
othe
r is 9
0 an
d I d
id n
ot th
ink
of h
er a
s old
unt
il sh
e ha
d a
stro
ke
and
chan
ged
quite
a b
it. S
he h
ad b
een
the
kind
of p
erso
n w
ho is
car
e-fu
l to
put o
n m
akeu
p an
d se
lect
wha
t she
wor
e be
fore
goi
ng o
ut a
nd sh
e w
as n
o lo
nger
inte
rest
ed in
that
. The
n, m
y sis
ter a
nd I
notic
ed sh
e ha
d be
com
e fo
rget
ful (
Cra
mpt
on 2
007)
.
Ano
ther
per
son
adde
d th
at p
eopl
e ca
n be
com
e ol
d in
thei
r 40s
whi
le th
ere
are
othe
rs sh
e do
es n
ot c
onsid
er o
ld w
ho a
re in
thei
r 90s
. The
diff
eren
ce is
on
e of
att
itude
and
act
ivity
. Thu
s, “o
ld”
was
defi
ned
by lo
ss o
f tra
its id
enti-
fied
with
mat
ure
adul
ts a
nd a
s a b
odily
and
soci
al e
xper
ienc
e th
at is
act
ivel
y av
oide
d. T
his p
lace
s pol
icy
mak
ers a
nd p
rofe
ssio
nals
in th
e aw
kwar
d po
si-tio
n of
serv
ing
invo
lunt
ary
clie
nts—
that
is, p
eopl
e w
ho w
ould
rath
er n
ot
iden
tify
as “
an o
ffici
al g
eeze
r.” O
ne c
linic
al so
cial
wor
ker e
xpla
ined
that
the
hard
est p
art o
f her
job
was
con
vinc
ing
an o
lder
adu
lt to
acc
ept b
eing
a c
li-en
t. A
t a se
nior
cen
ter,
staf
f oft
en se
ek o
lder
vol
unte
ers i
n th
e ho
pe th
ey w
ill
be m
ore
will
ing
to la
ter u
se th
e se
rvic
es th
emse
lves
.
Of c
ours
e, o
ld a
ge c
anno
t alw
ays b
e av
oide
d. In
this
rese
arch
and
oth
er
stud
ies,
how
ever
, mos
t old
peo
ple
still
esc
hew
old
age
serv
ices
. Ins
tead
, the
y tu
rn to
info
rmal
serv
ices
and
net
wor
ks. F
or e
xam
ple,
one
wom
an in
her
90s
re
lied
upon
nei
ghbo
rs, c
hurc
h m
embe
rs, a
nd h
er th
erap
ist. S
he w
as a
frai
d to
30
Th
e Pa
rdee
Pap
ers
| No.
6 |
Aug
ust 2
009
G
loba
l Agi
ng: E
mer
ging
Cha
lleng
es
31
live
alon
e an
d ye
t eve
n m
ore
afra
id th
at so
cial
serv
ices
pro
fess
iona
ls w
ould
m
ove
her t
o a
nurs
ing
hom
e. S
o, sh
e ch
eerf
ully
refu
sed
agen
cy h
elp
as sh
e be
cam
e in
crea
singl
y fr
ail a
nd h
ouse
boun
d. H
er p
refe
renc
e w
as to
pla
ce
new
spap
er a
ds fo
r peo
ple
to st
ay
with
her
as n
eede
d. H
er in
form
al
netw
ork
help
ed m
onito
r the
situ
-at
ion,
and
she
even
tual
ly fo
und
som
eone
who
wou
ld a
lso p
rovi
de
basic
nur
sing
care
. Eve
ntua
lly,
she
did
need
form
al in
terv
entio
n an
d m
oved
to a
nur
sing
hom
e.
How
ever
, she
was
abl
e to
avo
id th
is m
ove
for s
ever
al y
ears
in c
ompa
rison
to
if sh
e ha
d tr
ied
to li
ve e
ntire
ly in
depe
nden
tly.15
In h
er n
ew e
nviro
nmen
t, sh
e co
ntin
ues t
o bo
th g
ive
and
rece
ive
care
. Alth
ough
bed
ridde
n, sh
e ca
lls o
ut
gree
tings
to c
areg
iver
s and
read
s to
her r
oom
mat
es. S
he is
not
sim
ply
alon
e.
The
Impo
rtan
ce o
f Soc
ial T
ies a
nd R
ecip
roci
ty in
Gha
na. A
s in
muc
h of
the
glob
al S
outh
(and
per
haps
the
glob
al N
orth
), ol
d ag
e in
Gha
na is
bas
ed o
n w
heth
er o
ne c
an w
ork
and
supp
ort h
imse
lf or
her
self
(see
also
Apt
199
6). I
n a
labo
r-in
tens
ive
econ
omy,
this
ofte
n m
eans
bei
ng p
hysic
ally
fit e
noug
h to
w
ork.
The
ons
et o
f old
age
com
es w
hen
one
is no
long
er a
ble
to c
ontr
ibut
e to
one
’s ow
n ca
re o
r tha
t of o
ther
s. Fo
r man
y G
hana
ians
, thi
s bec
omes
mor
e lik
ely
as p
eopl
e re
ach
age
80 a
nd o
ver.
Unt
il th
en, m
any
deve
lop
stra
tegi
es
to e
arn
inco
me
and
cont
ribut
e de
spite
agi
ng b
odie
s.
Alth
ough
this
may
seem
to c
ontr
adic
t the
idea
that
fam
ilies
offe
r an
info
r-m
al so
cial
safe
ty n
et, i
t rai
ses a
n im
port
ant i
ssue
. The
Afr
ican
pro
verb
de
scrib
ed e
arlie
r abo
ut e
lder
s hel
ping
chi
ldre
n cu
t the
ir te
eth
is a
soci
al c
on-
trac
t. T
hat i
s, on
e do
es n
ot c
are
for e
lder
s sol
ely
as tr
aditi
on; o
ne c
ares
for
elde
rs b
ecau
se o
f wha
t the
y ha
ve d
one
for y
ou (s
ee a
lso A
bode
rin 2
004a
). T
hose
who
do
not o
r can
not p
rovi
de fo
r the
ir ch
ildre
n as
they
gro
w m
ay
find
that
ther
e is
not a
s muc
h ca
re a
s the
y gr
ow o
lder
. Thi
s is n
ot to
say
that
th
ere
is a
calc
ulat
ed e
xcha
nge
but r
athe
r tha
t res
pect
and
love
as a
n el
der h
as
15. M
ost o
lder
adu
lts li
ve a
t hom
e an
d re
ceiv
e ca
re fr
om fa
mily
, but
mos
t peo
ple
at th
e en
d of
life
rece
ive
paid
car
e in
nur
sing
hom
es, h
ospi
tals,
or h
ospi
ces.
to b
e de
serv
ed o
n so
me
leve
l. M
any
in th
e re
sear
ch st
udy
also
com
plai
ned
that
this
love
was
mor
e ab
unda
nt in
tim
es w
hen
reso
urce
s wer
e al
so m
ore
abun
dant
(Cra
mpt
on 2
007)
. In
villa
ges,
child
ren
used
to b
e ro
utin
ely
sent
to sh
are
food
with
eld
ers d
urin
g ha
rves
ts. T
his p
ract
ice
is le
ss li
kely
as
reso
urce
s dep
lete
. A re
late
d co
mm
ent w
as th
at o
ld a
ge se
ems t
o co
me
earli
er
to p
eopl
e to
day
beca
use
of st
ress
ful l
ife c
ircum
stan
ces.
At t
he sa
me
time,
pe
ople
not
ed th
at so
cial
nor
ms h
ave
chan
ged:
old
er a
dults
can
not e
xpec
t ch
ildre
n to
offe
r hel
p as
read
ily n
or fo
r you
nger
peo
ple
to se
ek th
eir a
dvic
e.
Ove
rall,
old
age
is n
ot a
par
ticul
ar a
ge o
r eve
n st
ate
of b
eing
as m
uch
as it
is
a st
atus
neg
otia
ted
with
in in
terd
epen
dent
rela
tions
hips
. Peo
ple
who
hav
e “d
one
wel
l” a
nd sh
ared
gen
erou
sly w
ith o
ther
s are
mor
e lik
ely
to e
njoy
thei
r la
ter y
ears
as o
nes o
f res
t and
a se
nse
of a
chie
vem
ent.
One
exa
mpl
e is
an
olde
r wom
an w
ho h
as b
ecom
e th
e he
ad o
f her
ext
ende
d fa
mily
. Thi
s mea
ns
her o
pini
on is
con
sulte
d fo
r im
port
ant m
atte
rs, h
er p
rese
nce
is es
peci
ally
re
ques
ted
for s
peci
al e
vent
s, an
d he
r adv
ice
is so
ught
in c
ouns
el-
ing.
She
has
ear
ned
her e
lder
st
atus
not
onl
y w
ithin
her
fam
ily
but a
lso in
the
villa
ge th
roug
h th
e ca
re sh
e ha
s giv
en to
oth
ers a
nd
for o
rgan
izin
g an
d le
adin
g va
ri-ou
s ass
ocia
tions
. For
exa
mpl
e, sh
e ha
s cre
ated
a “
prac
tical
app
roac
h”
to th
e pr
oble
m o
f old
age
in
her v
illag
e. S
he b
egan
offe
ring
help
to o
ld p
eopl
e af
ter a
trip
to Z
imba
bwe
taug
ht h
er th
at A
fric
ans m
ight
oth
erw
ise tu
rn to
cre
atin
g nu
rsin
g ho
mes
.16
Tha
t is,
she
visit
s old
peo
ple
at h
ome,
trie
s to
redu
ce fa
mily
con
flict
that
co
mpr
omise
s eld
er c
are,
lect
ures
on
reci
proc
ity a
nd c
are,
and
offe
rs h
ealth
pr
omot
ion
pres
enta
tions
. In
doin
g th
is w
ork,
she
has m
odel
ed th
e ca
re sh
e m
ay n
eed
if sh
e be
com
es o
ld.
16. A
s she
exp
lain
ed, w
hen
the
gove
rnm
ent m
ade
whi
te fa
rmer
s lea
ve, m
any
of th
e ne
w o
wne
rs w
ere
not
inte
rest
ed in
runn
ing
the
farm
s. T
he a
ble
bodi
ed st
aff l
eft,
leav
ing
olde
r peo
ple
behi
nd. T
he n
ew o
wne
rs
then
form
ed su
ppor
t thr
ough
wha
t are
effe
ctiv
ely
nurs
ing
hom
es. A
rece
nt st
udy
note
d th
at th
ere
are
13
nurs
ing
hom
es in
Zim
babw
e.
Of c
ours
e, o
ld a
ge c
anno
t alw
ays
be
avoi
ded.
In th
is re
sear
ch a
nd o
ther
st
udie
s, h
owev
er, m
ost o
ld p
eopl
e st
ill
esch
ew o
ld a
ge s
ervi
ces.
Inst
ead,
they
tu
rn to
info
rmal
ser
vice
s an
d ne
twor
ks.
Ove
rall,
old
age
is n
ot a
par
ticul
ar a
ge
or e
ven
stat
e of
bei
ng a
s m
uch
as it
is
a st
atus
neg
otia
ted
with
in in
terd
epen
-de
nt re
latio
nshi
ps. P
eopl
e w
ho h
ave
“don
e w
ell”
and
sha
red
gene
rous
ly
with
oth
ers
are
mor
e lik
ely
to e
njoy
th
eir l
ater
yea
rs a
s on
es o
f res
t and
a
sens
e of
ach
ieve
men
t.
32
Th
e Pa
rdee
Pap
ers
| No.
6 |
Aug
ust 2
009
G
loba
l Agi
ng: E
mer
ging
Cha
lleng
es
33
Polic
y Im
plic
atio
ns fr
om E
thno
grap
hic
Rese
arch
Glo
bal t
rend
s pro
ject
that
mos
t peo
ple
aliv
e to
day
will
live
into
the
chro
no-
logi
cal a
ges
defin
ed a
s ol
d. T
he lo
nger
-ran
ge fu
ture
will
also
bri
ng a
n in
crea
sing
num
ber o
f old
peo
ple
who
are
dep
ende
nt o
n th
e lo
ve a
nd k
ind-
ness
of o
ther
s for
car
e. W
hen
form
al in
terv
entio
n is
avai
labl
e, it
can
pro
vide
he
lp th
at is
muc
h ne
eded
. How
ever
, foc
usin
g on
agi
ng a
s a p
robl
em o
f ol
d ag
e is
like
writ
ing
the
end
of th
e st
ory
with
out fi
rst e
xam
inin
g th
e pl
ot
prog
ress
ions
. As s
een
in b
oth
coun
try
exam
ples
, how
peo
ple
age
and
how
(a
nd if
) the
y gr
ow o
ld d
epen
ds o
n ch
oice
s, be
havi
ors,
and
oppo
rtun
ities
fo
r hea
lth, p
rodu
ctiv
ity, a
nd su
ppor
t acr
oss t
heir
lifes
pan.
In b
oth
mor
e tr
aditi
onal
and
mod
ern
soci
etie
s, ol
der a
dults
resis
t mee
ting
the
unde
rlyin
g de
finiti
on o
f old
in so
cial
pol
icy.
In th
e U
.S.,
this
is pa
rtly
due
to a
void
ing
the
stig
ma
of o
ld a
ge. I
n G
hana
, thi
s is p
art o
f a m
ore
gene
ral l
ife st
rate
gy
and
striv
ing
for s
ocia
l suc
cess
and
eve
ntua
l eld
er st
atus
. The
se st
rate
gies
can
be
gen
eral
ized
into
exa
min
atio
n of
how
peo
ple
activ
ely
nego
tiate
aut
onom
y ac
ross
the
lifec
ours
e an
d cu
ltura
l con
text
s. T
he ti
min
g an
d im
plic
atio
ns o
f ol
d ag
e ar
e th
en e
mbe
dded
with
in a
larg
er q
uest
ion
of p
oliti
cal,
econ
omic
, an
d so
cial
rela
tions
.
Des
pite
the
impo
rtan
ce o
f fam
ily a
nd so
cial
con
text
s, cu
rren
t agi
ng p
olic
y te
nds t
o na
rrow
ly fo
cus o
n st
ate
oblig
atio
ns to
agi
ng in
divi
dual
s. T
hrou
gh
soci
al a
nd h
ealth
insu
ranc
e, th
e st
ate
resc
ues o
ld p
eopl
e fro
m p
over
ty a
nd p
oor
heal
th. O
ne w
ay o
ut o
f the
pol
icy
crisi
s of a
ging
may
be
to re
-con
cept
ualiz
e ag
ing
in so
cial
and
eco
nom
ic p
olic
y. If
this
defin
ition
wer
e ba
sed
mor
e on
et
hnog
raph
ic re
aliti
es ra
ther
than
stat
istic
al c
alcu
latio
ns, t
hen
agin
g w
ould
be
com
e pa
rt o
f hum
an d
evel
opm
ent.
Tha
t is,
agin
g po
licy
wou
ld c
onsis
t fir
st o
f und
erst
andi
ng h
ow p
eopl
e ca
n “s
ucce
ssfu
lly”
grow
from
chi
ld to
ol
der a
dult.
Tho
se a
dults
who
rece
ive
oppo
rtun
ities
to d
o w
ell a
s the
y gr
ow
up n
eed
less
form
al su
ppor
t to
repl
ace
inde
pend
ent r
esou
rces
, fam
ily ti
es,
and
info
rmal
net
wor
ks. O
nce
care
is n
eede
d, th
e iss
ue is
not
onl
y a
soci
al
cont
ract
bet
wee
n th
e st
ate
and
indi
vidu
als b
ut a
lso b
etw
een
the
stat
e an
d fa
mili
es. F
amily
pla
nnin
g w
ould
thus
requ
ire m
ore
than
pla
ns fo
r red
ucin
g fe
rtili
ty. S
uppo
rtiv
e fa
mily
pol
icy
wou
ld fo
cus o
n de
velo
ping
and
sust
ain-
ing
a he
alth
y, p
rodu
ctiv
e w
orkf
orce
. Thi
s mig
ht re
quire
labo
r pol
icy
that
re
quire
s the
stat
e or
em
ploy
ers t
o su
bsid
ize
the
care
that
fam
ily a
nd in
for-
mal
car
egiv
ers p
rovi
de th
roug
h di
rect
fund
s suc
h as
pai
d le
ave.
At t
he sa
me
time,
agi
ng p
olic
y w
ould
defi
ne o
ld a
ge a
s a c
ompo
site
varia
ble
rath
er th
an
chro
nolo
gica
l age
. For
exa
mpl
e, o
ld a
ge m
ight
be
defin
ed a
s a n
umbe
r in
com
bina
tion
with
cap
acity
to fu
lfill
wha
t ger
onto
logi
sts c
all t
he “
activ
ities
of
dai
ly li
ving
.” T
hese
are
the
activ
ities
requ
ired
to lo
ok a
fter
one
self
and
to li
ve p
rodu
ctiv
ely.
A m
ore
com
plex
var
iabl
e m
ight
redu
ce th
e nu
mbe
rs o
f ac
tive
adul
ts w
ho a
re d
efine
d by
pol
icy
as o
ld a
nd in
crea
se a
tten
tion
to th
ose
who
do
beco
me
frai
l, vu
lner
able
, and
dep
ende
nt.
CO
NC
LUSI
ON
: GET
TIN
G R
EAD
Y F
OR
GR
AN
NY
In lo
okin
g be
yond
a c
urre
nt se
nse
of c
risis
to th
e lo
nger
-ran
ge im
plic
atio
ns
of g
loba
l agi
ng, t
here
are
thre
e m
ain
poin
ts to
revi
ew. T
he fi
rst i
s tha
t dem
o-gr
aphi
c tr
ends
are
out
paci
ng c
urre
nt th
eore
tical
fram
ewor
ks. T
hese
fram
e-w
orks
incl
ude
dem
ogra
phic
, epi
dem
iolo
gic,
and
mod
erni
zatio
n th
eory
, w
hich
bes
t des
crib
e th
e hi
stor
ic ri
se o
f pop
ulat
ion
agin
g an
d po
licy
tren
ds
in W
este
rn E
urop
e. A
s pop
ulat
ion
agin
g oc
curs
aro
und
the
wor
ld, h
owev
er,
new
tren
ds se
em to
out
pace
or o
utgr
ow th
is cl
assic
mod
el. M
ost o
f the
gl
obal
Nor
th, i
n fa
ct, i
s in
a po
st-t
rans
ition
pha
se. T
his i
nclu
des p
opul
atio
n sh
rinka
ge a
s fer
tility
rate
s fal
l bel
ow re
plac
emen
t lev
el. T
his a
lso in
clud
es a
lo
ngev
ity tr
end
in w
hich
livi
ng w
ell b
eyon
d 60
or 6
5 is
incr
easin
gly
com
-m
on. M
eanw
hile
, the
dem
ogra
phic
tran
sitio
n th
at fi
rst t
ook
thre
e to
five
ge
nera
tions
in W
este
rn E
urop
e is
now
taki
ng p
lace
in o
ne o
r eve
n le
ss. I
n m
ost o
f the
glo
bal S
outh
, pop
ulat
ion
agin
g tr
ends
are
driv
en b
y a
com
bina
-tio
n of
falli
ng b
irth
rate
s and
incr
easin
g su
rviv
al ra
tes o
f the
you
ng. T
hus,
part
of t
he lo
ng-t
erm
futu
re o
f agi
ng is
foun
d in
the
“you
th b
ulge
” in
par
ts
of A
fric
a, A
sia, a
nd L
atin
Am
eric
a. W
hile
pol
icy
mak
ers m
ay b
e fo
cuse
d on
Flo
rida
toda
y, fu
ture
coh
orts
of o
lder
adu
lts w
ill in
crea
singl
y co
me
from
co
untr
ies l
ike
Bra
zil,
Nig
eria
, and
eve
n B
angl
ades
h.
The
mai
n lim
itatio
n of
cur
rent
theo
retic
al fr
amew
orks
in p
olic
y m
akin
g is
that
they
repl
ace
chan
ges o
ver t
ime
with
stag
nant
, lin
ear s
tage
s. T
his
allo
ws t
he o
dd h
euris
tic o
f ana
lyzi
ng c
ount
ries a
t one
poi
nt in
tim
e as
be
ing
early
, on
time,
or l
ate.
If c
ount
ries w
ere
anal
yzed
bas
ed o
n ch
ange
s ov
er ti
me
rath
er th
an c
hang
es in
rela
tion
to a
uni
vers
al st
anda
rd, t
hen
the
com
plex
inte
rpla
y of
dev
elop
men
t and
dem
ogra
phic
fact
ors m
ight
be
easie
r to
disc
ern.
Thi
s mig
ht h
elp
expl
ain,
for e
xam
ple,
how
a c
ount
ry c
an g
et
34
Th
e Pa
rdee
Pap
ers
| No.
6 |
Aug
ust 2
009
G
loba
l Agi
ng: E
mer
ging
Cha
lleng
es
35
old
befo
re it
get
s ric
h. A
t the
sam
e tim
e, w
e kn
ow h
ow tr
ends
can
cha
nge
thro
ugh
war
, pan
dem
ics,
and
the
failu
re to
pro
vide
supp
ort f
or h
uman
de
velo
pmen
t. W
e al
so k
now
from
the
dram
atic
exa
mpl
e of
Chi
na h
ow
polic
y ca
n im
pact
long
-ran
ge d
emog
raph
ic tr
ends
. Cou
ntry
-bas
ed st
udie
s ca
n be
a st
art f
or re
thin
king
how
to d
efine
who
is o
ld a
nd th
e ro
le o
f agi
ng
in la
bor,
heal
th, a
nd c
are
polic
ies w
ithin
thes
e co
mpl
ex c
onte
xts. 1
7
The
seco
nd p
oint
is th
e na
rrow
con
cept
of a
ging
foun
d in
cur
rent
pol
icy.
A
ging
pol
icy
tend
s to
plac
e ol
der a
dults
out
side
of e
cono
mic
and
hum
an
deve
lopm
ent.
The
se p
olic
ies w
ere
first
cre
ated
in c
ount
ries w
hen
it se
emed
th
at e
xpan
ding
eco
nom
ies a
nd w
elfa
re sy
stem
s cou
ld k
eep
pace
with
life
ex
pect
ancy
and
dep
ende
ncy
ratio
tren
ds. T
he a
ging
que
stio
n in
pol
icy
then
fo
cuse
d on
how
to m
anag
e an
d ca
re fo
r old
peo
ple
who
are
unp
rodu
ctiv
e an
d de
pend
ent.
As f
ear o
f pop
ulat
ion
expl
osio
n gi
ves w
ay to
fear
of p
opul
atio
n ag
ing,
one
solu
tion
is to
redu
ce th
e ca
lcul
ated
num
bers
of o
lder
adu
lts b
y in
crea
sing
the
chro
nolo
gica
l mar
ker o
f old
age
in p
olic
y. H
owev
er, a
noth
er
(or a
dditi
onal
) may
be
to e
xpan
d th
e po
licy
lens
on
agin
g. T
his w
ould
firs
t in
volv
e re
cogn
ition
that
agi
ng is
par
t of t
he e
ntire
life
span
and
not
sim
ply
a lo
ss su
ffere
d ar
ound
age
60.
Pub
lic h
ealth
, fam
ily p
lann
ing,
chi
ld w
elfa
re,
and
heal
th c
are
are
impl
icitl
y pa
rt o
f agi
ng p
olic
y be
caus
e th
ey a
ll im
pact
ho
w p
eopl
e ag
e an
d w
hen
they
bec
ome
old.
Not
onl
y sh
ould
agi
ng p
olic
y ex
pand
idea
s abo
ut w
ho is
old
but
also
abo
ut
who
car
es a
bout
the
proc
ess o
f agi
ng. T
his r
aise
s the
third
poi
nt, t
hat a
ging
po
licy
shou
ld in
clud
e fa
mily
and
info
rmal
net
wor
ks. W
hile
agi
ng p
olic
y ha
s fo
cuse
d on
the
resp
onsib
ility
of t
he st
ate
to a
ging
indi
vidu
als,
the
real
ity is
th
at th
e st
ate
ofte
n re
lies u
pon
fam
ilies
and
info
rmal
net
wor
ks fo
r mos
t of
old
age
care
. Lon
g-ra
nge
agin
g po
licy,
then
, req
uire
s con
sider
atio
n of
the
soci
al c
ontr
act b
etw
een
the
stat
e an
d fa
mily
. Cur
rent
exa
mpl
es a
re fo
und
in p
ro-n
atal
ist p
olic
ies.
Labo
r law
s and
soci
al w
elfa
re a
re u
sed
to su
ppor
t fa
mili
es to
bot
h ca
re fo
r chi
ldre
n an
d pr
ovid
e pr
oduc
tive
labo
r in
the
form
al
17. O
f cou
rse,
ther
e ar
e lim
itatio
ns to
usin
g co
untr
ies a
s the
uni
t of a
naly
sis—
glob
aliz
atio
n re
quire
s re
cogn
ition
of i
nter
depe
nden
t tre
nds a
mon
g na
tions
. For
exa
mpl
e, m
any
fam
ily m
embe
rs (i
nclu
ding
ol
der a
dults
) rel
y on
rem
ittan
ces f
rom
ove
rsea
s rel
ativ
es. T
his s
uppo
rt is
pro
babl
y no
t cal
cula
ted
in m
ost
depe
nden
cy ra
tios.
Sim
ilarly
, the
pro
duct
ivity
of w
orki
ng a
dults
var
ies w
ith th
e va
lue
of th
eir l
abor
w
ithin
an
incr
easin
gly
inte
rnat
iona
l eco
nom
y. O
n th
e ot
her h
and,
mos
t agi
ng a
nd so
cial
wel
fare
pol
icie
s ar
e im
plem
ente
d on
the
natio
nal r
athe
r tha
n in
tern
atio
nal l
evel
.
econ
omy.
Agi
ng p
olic
y m
ight
furt
her i
nter
twin
e la
bor a
nd so
cial
wel
fare
w
ith re
tirem
ent a
nd so
cial
secu
rity.
Pen
sion
refo
rm th
en b
ecom
es ju
st o
ne
elem
ent w
ithin
the
ques
tion
of o
ld a
ge c
are.
Thi
s app
roac
h w
ill b
e in
crea
s-in
gly
impo
rtan
t as f
amili
es tr
y to
car
e fo
r agi
ng re
lativ
es a
nd
child
ren
whi
le b
oth
wom
en a
nd
men
wor
k ou
tsid
e th
e ho
me.
As
fam
ily c
ompo
sitio
n ch
ange
s in
man
y pa
rts o
f the
wor
ld, p
olic
y m
aker
s will
incr
easin
gly
need
to
con
sider
the
“bea
npol
e” o
f m
ultip
le g
ener
atio
ns ra
ther
than
th
e ex
tend
ed b
ranc
hes o
f fam
ily
tree
s. A
s agi
ng p
olic
y sp
ans t
he g
lobe
, cul
tura
l var
iatio
ns in
defi
ning
fam
ily
will
also
requ
ire c
onsid
erat
ion.
In c
oncl
usio
n, th
ere
is no
reas
on to
fear
“th
e co
min
g ag
e of
gra
nnie
s” if
re
vise
d po
licy
fram
ewor
ks a
re a
pplie
d to
a li
fesp
an a
ppro
ach
to g
loba
l agi
ng.
Polic
y m
aker
s sho
uld
reco
gniz
e ho
w e
mph
asis
in th
e de
velo
ping
wor
ld o
n m
othe
rs a
nd c
hild
ren
has h
elpe
d la
y th
e fo
unda
tion
for t
oday
and
tom
or-
row
’s ag
ing
polic
y co
ncer
ns. A
s the
se c
hild
ren
grow
into
old
er a
dults
, cro
ss-
cultu
ral r
esea
rch
dem
onst
rate
s a c
omm
on c
once
pt o
f old
age
as d
eclin
e an
d lo
ss. H
owev
er, h
ow p
eopl
e be
com
e ol
d an
d ev
en w
heth
er th
ey b
ecom
e ol
d is
not a
que
stio
n of
chr
onol
ogic
al a
ge a
s muc
h as
a o
ne o
f soc
ial r
elat
ions
and
co
ntex
t. In
par
ticul
ar, o
lder
adu
lts a
void
and
pre
pare
for g
ettin
g ol
d th
roug
h in
terd
epen
dent
rela
tions
hips
with
fam
ily a
nd in
form
al n
etw
orks
. Thi
s hap
-pe
ns in
bot
h co
untr
ies l
ike
the
U.S
., in
whi
ch th
e st
ate
prov
ides
old
age
su
ppor
t, an
d co
untr
ies l
ike
Gha
na th
at la
ck n
atio
nal a
ging
pol
icy.
Effo
rts b
y th
e st
ate
to d
efine
who
is o
ld a
nd th
en re
plac
e in
form
al a
nd fa
mili
al su
ppor
t m
ay b
e un
sust
aina
ble.
In u
sing
a lif
espa
n ap
proa
ch, h
owev
er, a
ging
pol
icy
wou
ld b
e pa
rt o
f hum
an d
evel
opm
ent.
Agi
ng p
olic
y fr
amew
orks
cou
ld b
e re
vise
d so
that
the
stat
e su
ppor
ts in
divi
dual
effo
rt to
del
ay o
ld a
ge a
s wel
l as
fam
ily- o
r com
mun
ity-b
ased
car
e fo
r dep
ende
nt re
lativ
es. T
he lo
nger
-ra
nge
chal
leng
e is
less
abo
ut a
risin
g tid
e of
old
er a
dults
than
abo
ut h
ow
soci
al p
olic
y ca
n po
sitiv
ely
influ
ence
hum
an a
nd so
cial
dev
elop
men
t acr
oss a
le
ngth
enin
g lif
ecyc
le.
Whi
le a
ging
pol
icy
has
focu
sed
on
the
resp
onsi
bilit
y of
the
stat
e to
agi
ng
indi
vidu
als,
the
real
ity is
that
the
stat
e of
ten
relie
s up
on fa
mili
es a
nd in
form
al
netw
orks
for m
ost o
f old
age
car
e.
Long
-ran
ge a
ging
pol
icy,
then
, req
uire
s co
nsid
erat
ion
of th
e so
cial
con
trac
t be
twee
n th
e st
ate
and
fam
ily.
36
Th
e Pa
rdee
Pap
ers
| No.
6 |
Aug
ust 2
009
G
loba
l Agi
ng: E
mer
ging
Cha
lleng
es
37
BIBL
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RA
PHY
AA
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Boston University The Frederick S. Pardee Center for the Study of the Longer-Range Future
B
Pardee House67 Bay State RoadBoston, Massachusetts 02215www.bu.edu/pardeeE-mail: [email protected]: 617-358-4000Fax: 617-358-4001
The Frederick S. Pardee Center for the Study of the Longer-Range Future at BostonUniversity convenes and conducts interdisciplinary, policy-relevant, and future-orientedresearch that can contribute to long-term improvements in the human condition.Through its programs of research, publications, and events, the Pardee Center seeks toidentify, anticipate, and enhance the long-term potential for human progress, in all itsvarious dimensions.
The Pardee Papers series features working papers by Pardee Center Fellows and otherinvited authors. Papers in this series explore current and future challenges by anticipatingthe pathways to human progress, human development, and human well-being. Thisseries includes papers on a wide range of topics, with a special emphasis on interdisci-plinary perspectives and a development orientation.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Alexandra Crampton was a 2008–2009 Postdoctoral Fellow at the Frederick S. Pardee Center for the Study of the Longer-Range Future and is currently Assistant Professor in the Department of Social and Cultural Sciences at MarquetteUniversity. Her scholarship and teaching bring an anthropo-logical perspective to theoretical and practical questions onaging, social welfare policy, social work practice, negotiation,and alternative dispute resolution. She has presented her
work for the American Anthropological Association, the Gerontological Society ofAmerica, the Council on Social Work Education, and the Society for Social WorkResearch. She holds a joint PhD in Social Work and Anthropology from theUniversity of Michigan.
