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Geostatistical Simulation of the Total Organic Carbon Values An Example fromPetroleum Source Rocks on the Coastal Area of Western Taurus RegionTurkeyCem Sarac a Ismail Hakki Demirel a Ozgul Sen a Nehir Varol a

a Department of Geological Engineering Hacettepe University Ankara Turkey

Online Publication Date 02 January 2004

To cite this Article Sarac Cem Demirel Ismail Hakki Sen Ozgul and Varol Nehir(2004)Geostatistical Simulation of the Total OrganicCarbon Values An Example from Petroleum Source Rocks on the Coastal Area of Western Taurus Region TurkeyPetroleumScience and Technology223367 mdash 379

To link to this Article DOI 101081LFT-120024394

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PETROLEUM SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY

Vol 22 Nos 3 amp 4 pp 367ndash379 2004

Geostatistical Simulation of the Total Organic

Carbon Values An Example from Petroleum

Source Rocks on the Coastal Area of Western

Taurus Region Turkey

Cem Sarac Ismail Hakki Demirel

Ozgul Sen and Nehir Varol

Department of Geological Engineering Hacettepe

University Beytepe Campus Ankara Turkey

ABSTRACT

Geostatistical conditional simulation is widely used and accepted as a

method of generating stochastic models of hydrocarbon reservoirs

There are many applications described in the literature using one or

more of the range of methods now available and apart from the

petroleum reservoirs simulated annealing technique is applied to the

total organic carbon values of the potential hydrocarbon sourcemdash

rocks which has been penetrated by seven wells drilled on the western

Taurus region The main source rock intervals are mostly encountered

in the autochthonous Beydaglari carbonates After a description of

Correspondence Dr Ismail Hakki Demirel Department of Geological

Engineering Hacettepe University Beytepe Campus 06532 Ankara Turkey

Fax thorn90 312 2902025 E-mail hakkidhacettepeedutr

367

DOI 101081LFT-120024394 1091-6466 (Print) 1532-2459 (Online)

Copyright amp 2004 by Marcel Dekker Inc wwwdekkercom

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the geology of the area a geostatistical study based on 440 composite

samples is presented The composite samples gave a positively skewed

distribution with a mean of 027 total organic carbon values

Experimental variograms representing three main directionsmdashstrike

plunge cross dip and downdip directionsmdashwere calculated a spherical

typemodel was fitted to variograms Amodel validation and a number

of conditional simulation were applied to the data respectively and

the best simulation senario was chosen Thus a total of 1 440 000 grid

nodes were conditonally simulated using the set of 440 data values

Simulation results indicate that the amount of organic matter that has

generated hydrocarbons increases with increasing depth and signifi-

cant source rocks rich in organic matter has concentrated on the

coastal area of the western Taurus region

Key Words Geostatical simulation Total organic carbon Western

Taurus region

INTRODUCTION

Hydrocarbon prospection studies on the autochthonous BeydaglariUnits in the western Taurus region were carried out through 1980sBecause of the negative thermal anomalies which were encountered in anumber of drillholes the petroleum system definition could not have beencompleted yet However in the second half of 1990s the region hasbecome fruitful by discovering the potential hydrocarbon source rocksof various ages The total organic carbon contents (average 8) of thesamples from the outcrops of the coastal area and Demre-1 Alakir-1wells have higher values than the samples from the northern parts ofthe region which contain less than 05 of the total organic carboncontent As mentioned in Demirel and Gunay (2000) central and north-ern parts of the Western Taurus region have an average height of2000ndash2500m with high mountains sharp peaks deep valleys narrowgorges and all the karst features such as dolines poljes underground(last) rivers and caverns Consequently rapid circulation of meteoricwaters and subsurface waters moving within the geological system influ-ence the distribution of the total organic matter content and temperaturesin the subsurface environments

This study aims to evaluate the differences between northern andsouthern parts of the area in relation to the total organic carbon(TOC) content To realize the objective geochemical data from sevenwells were integrated with the geostatistical conditional simulation as amethod of generating stochastic models of hydrocarbon explorations

368 Sarac et al

Downloaded By [TUumlBTAK EKUAL] At 0945 25 November 2008

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the geology of the area a geostatistical study based on 440 composite

samples is presented The composite samples gave a positively skewed

distribution with a mean of 027 total organic carbon values

Experimental variograms representing three main directionsmdashstrike

plunge cross dip and downdip directionsmdashwere calculated a spherical

typemodel was fitted to variograms Amodel validation and a number

of conditional simulation were applied to the data respectively and

the best simulation senario was chosen Thus a total of 1 440 000 grid

nodes were conditonally simulated using the set of 440 data values

Simulation results indicate that the amount of organic matter that has

generated hydrocarbons increases with increasing depth and signifi-

cant source rocks rich in organic matter has concentrated on the

coastal area of the western Taurus region

Key Words Geostatical simulation Total organic carbon Western

Taurus region

INTRODUCTION

Hydrocarbon prospection studies on the autochthonous BeydaglariUnits in the western Taurus region were carried out through 1980sBecause of the negative thermal anomalies which were encountered in anumber of drillholes the petroleum system definition could not have beencompleted yet However in the second half of 1990s the region hasbecome fruitful by discovering the potential hydrocarbon source rocksof various ages The total organic carbon contents (average 8) of thesamples from the outcrops of the coastal area and Demre-1 Alakir-1wells have higher values than the samples from the northern parts ofthe region which contain less than 05 of the total organic carboncontent As mentioned in Demirel and Gunay (2000) central and north-ern parts of the Western Taurus region have an average height of2000ndash2500m with high mountains sharp peaks deep valleys narrowgorges and all the karst features such as dolines poljes underground(last) rivers and caverns Consequently rapid circulation of meteoricwaters and subsurface waters moving within the geological system influ-ence the distribution of the total organic matter content and temperaturesin the subsurface environments

This study aims to evaluate the differences between northern andsouthern parts of the area in relation to the total organic carbon(TOC) content To realize the objective geochemical data from sevenwells were integrated with the geostatistical conditional simulation as amethod of generating stochastic models of hydrocarbon explorations

368 Sarac et al

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SUMMARY OF GEOLOGICAL SETTING

The western Taurus region lies in the southwestern part of Turkeyand is bordered by the Aksu Fault in the east and Aegean Sea in the westdrill-hole locations and simplified geological map of the area is shown inFig 1 The sedimentary succession autochthonous Beydaglari Unitshere act a western side of the Autochthonous Taurus Unit which belongsto the northern margin of the Gondwana (Guvenc et al 1994)

The stratigraphic section in the western Taurus region ranges inthe age from Upper Triassic to Quaternary and divided into two strati-graphic sequences as autochthonous Beydaglari Units and AntalyaNappes (Blumenthal 1951 Ozgul and Arpat 1973 Lefevre 1967Gunay and Bolukbasi 1980 Monod et al 1974 Marcoux 1979Y|lmaz et al 1981 and Senel et al 1983) Tectono-stratigraphiccolumn section of western Taurus region is given in Fig 2 In thestudy area Paleozoic succession of the Autochthonous Taurus Unitwas not penetrated in the wells Upper Triassic sequence is composedof limestones and dolomites During the Jurassic and Cretaceous timesthe autochthonous Beydaglari Units were represented by shelf carbonatesand detritals which were deposited on the continental slope to basinCarbonat platform has begun to break by a rifting occurred in thenorthern margin of the Gondwana through Middle-Upper Triassic andoceanic crust materials were accumulated on the margins of the subsidingrift areas Fine-grained sediments and ophiolites deposited in deeper con-tinental slope and basins were pushed and thrust as three different nappeslices (Lower Middle and Upper Antalya Nappes) onto the relativelyautochthonous Beydaglari carbonates by the first compressionaltectonism of the Upper Cretaceous and Early Paleocene

Following the second compressional regime in the Eocene timeyounger tectono-stratigraphic sequences namely the Elmali Nappesandor Lycian Nappes were thrust onto the Beydaglari UnitsSedimentation from Eocene to Quaternary was continued in the localbasins which were developed by the later extentional periods

DATA PROCESSING VARIOGRAM

FUNCTION AND MODELING

The data was obtained from seven petroleum vertical wells betweenthe area of Kas and Acipayam towns in western Taurus The TOC valueswere composited into a constant length of 30m from sample lengths thatvaried from 12m to 86m A histogram of the TOC values presented in

Geostatical Stimulation in Turkey 369

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Figure 1 Well locations and simplified geological map of western Taurus region

(After Demirel and Gunay 2000)

370 Sarac et al

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Fig 3 shows a positively skewed distribution with a very low coefficientof variation The 440 composite TOC values have a mean of 027 witha variance of 021

Geostatistics is used to estimate the spatial variability of differentreservoir parameters such as TOC values permeability and porosity Acharacteristic behavior or structure of the spatial variability of variablescan be discerned behind a locally erratic aspect Geostatistics considersthese parameters regionalized variables and both the random andstructured aspects of the regionalized variables are expressed by theprobabilistic language of random functions (Journel and Huijbregts1978) every point of the study area defines a random variable and theparameter at this point is interpreted as a realization of that randomvariable A random function is seen as a set of random variables definedat each point in the area and a regionalized variable is a realization of therandom function

Figure 2 Tectono-stratigraphic column section of the western Taurus region

Geostatical Stimulation in Turkey 371

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Fig 3 shows a positively skewed distribution with a very low coefficientof variation The 440 composite TOC values have a mean of 027 witha variance of 021

Geostatistics is used to estimate the spatial variability of differentreservoir parameters such as TOC values permeability and porosity Acharacteristic behavior or structure of the spatial variability of variablescan be discerned behind a locally erratic aspect Geostatistics considersthese parameters regionalized variables and both the random andstructured aspects of the regionalized variables are expressed by theprobabilistic language of random functions (Journel and Huijbregts1978) every point of the study area defines a random variable and theparameter at this point is interpreted as a realization of that randomvariable A random function is seen as a set of random variables definedat each point in the area and a regionalized variable is a realization of therandom function

Figure 2 Tectono-stratigraphic column section of the western Taurus region

Geostatical Stimulation in Turkey 371

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In geostatistics the spatial variability of a regionalized variable ischaracterized by the variogram function 2(h) (Journel and Huijbregts1978)

2ethhTHORN frac14 Var ZethxTHORN Zethxthorn hTHORNfrac12

In application

2ethhTHORN frac141

NethhTHORN

XNethhTHORN

ifrac141

zethxiTHORN zethxithornhTHORN 2

whereh the separation vector

(h) the semi-variogramZ(x) a random variable defined at the point x andz(x) an outcome of Z(x)

In most data sets the data values along a certain direction aremore coherent than along the others The direction with best continuityrepresents the maximum correlation direction of the data set and theminimum correlation direction is perpendicular to the maximum correla-tion direction (Isaaks and Srivastava 1989) The ratio between maximumand minimum correlation lengths is known as the anisotropy The similaraxis notation as in Dowd (1985) and Sarac (1998) was used in the study

Figure 3 Histogram of TOC values (View this art in color at wwwdekkercom)

372 Sarac et al

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The experimental variograms were calculated in the four main directionsand no severe anisotrophy was found Therefore only the omnidirectionalvariogram was retained and modelled The vertical variogram andomnidirectional variogram are shown in Fig 4(a) and (b) respectively

The following simple spherical type variogram model has beenadapted

ethhTHORN frac14 002thorn 0263h

2a

h

2a3

h etha frac14 650 mTHORN

ethhTHORN frac14 028 h gt etha frac14 650 mTHORN

ethhTHORN frac14 0 h frac14 etha frac14 650 mTHORN

The model variogram fitted to the experimental variogram can beseen in Fig 4(b) The model parameters were checked by the use of theback-estimation technique where the data values were removed from thedata set in turn and the estimation was made using the remaining dataand the variogram model This was repeated removing each data valuetogether with all data within a specified ellipsoid of the data value Modelvalidation results verified the chosen model

CONDITIONAL SIMULATION OF THE TOC VALUES

The goal of hydrocarbon reservoir characterization is to provide anumerical model of reservoir attributes (porosity permeability TOCvalues saturations etc) The reservoir model is fine if it providesresponse functions similar to those which would be provided by a perfectmodel based on an exhaustive drilling of hydrocarbon reservoir

Geostatistical simulation is a powerful tool for generating stochasticmodels of hydrocarbon reservoirs The purpose of simulation is togenerate functions or sets of values of a variable of reservior that areconsistent with the available information

Simulation of random fields can be classified into unconditional andconditional methods The simulation techniques commonly used inspatial random field models are

1 Non-conditional Simulation

The turning bands method (Matheron 1973)

The spectral method (Mejia and Rodriguez-Iturbe 1974)

The LUmdashlower uppermdashdecomposition methodthe ring decom-position method (Davis 1987 Sarac and Dowd 1994)

The neural network method (Dowd and Sarac 1994)

Geostatical Stimulation in Turkey 373

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Figure 4 (a) Vertical (down-dip) variogram (b) Omnidirectional variogram and

model variogram

374 Sarac et al

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2 Conditional Simulation

The LU decompositionthe ring decomposition

The non-conditional simulation technique combined withkriging technique

Sequential indicator simulation (Alabert 1987)

Techniques combined with heuristic optimization algorithm(Deutsch and Cockerham 1994)

Non-conditional simulation refers to the generation of values witha desired mean and covariance Conditional simulation which refers to asimulation in which the generated values are restricted to be equal tospecified values such as experimental reservoir characterics at theknown locations

In this study the simulated annealing technique is used for con-ditional simulation The main purpose of simulated annealing is toperturb continuously an original image until it matches some prespecifiedcharacteristics written into an objective function (average squareddifference between the experimental and the model variogram) Aperturbation is accepted if the objective function is lowered The successof the method depends on a slow cooling of the realization controlled bya temperature function which decreases with time The simulation iscomplete when the realization is frozen ie when further perturbationsdo not lower the objective function (Deutsch and Journel 1998)

0 frac14Xh

ethhTHORN ethhTHORNfrac12 2

ethhTHORN2

The conditional simulation of TOC values was done a total of 120(xmdasheasting) 150 ( ymdashnorting) 80 (zmdashvertical direction) points Thegrid spacing in x and y directions is 1000m and in z direction is 100mThe full set of 440 data values were used for conditioning Thus a total of1440000 grid nodes were conditionally simulated A set of 1440000obtained conditional simulation of TOC values which conform to thefollowing

(a) At all sampled locations (440 locations) they coincide with thedata values

(b) They have the same distribution as the data values (mean of027 variance of 021 and the same histogram characteristics)

(c) They have the same spatial dispersion ie same variogram asthe data values

Geostatical Stimulation in Turkey 375

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ORDER REPRINTS

2 Conditional Simulation

The LU decompositionthe ring decomposition

The non-conditional simulation technique combined withkriging technique

Sequential indicator simulation (Alabert 1987)

Techniques combined with heuristic optimization algorithm(Deutsch and Cockerham 1994)

Non-conditional simulation refers to the generation of values witha desired mean and covariance Conditional simulation which refers to asimulation in which the generated values are restricted to be equal tospecified values such as experimental reservoir characterics at theknown locations

In this study the simulated annealing technique is used for con-ditional simulation The main purpose of simulated annealing is toperturb continuously an original image until it matches some prespecifiedcharacteristics written into an objective function (average squareddifference between the experimental and the model variogram) Aperturbation is accepted if the objective function is lowered The successof the method depends on a slow cooling of the realization controlled bya temperature function which decreases with time The simulation iscomplete when the realization is frozen ie when further perturbationsdo not lower the objective function (Deutsch and Journel 1998)

0 frac14Xh

ethhTHORN ethhTHORNfrac12 2

ethhTHORN2

The conditional simulation of TOC values was done a total of 120(xmdasheasting) 150 ( ymdashnorting) 80 (zmdashvertical direction) points Thegrid spacing in x and y directions is 1000m and in z direction is 100mThe full set of 440 data values were used for conditioning Thus a total of1440000 grid nodes were conditionally simulated A set of 1440000obtained conditional simulation of TOC values which conform to thefollowing

(a) At all sampled locations (440 locations) they coincide with thedata values

(b) They have the same distribution as the data values (mean of027 variance of 021 and the same histogram characteristics)

(c) They have the same spatial dispersion ie same variogram asthe data values

Geostatical Stimulation in Turkey 375

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Figure 5 Block diagrams and image maps of simulated TOC values for

levels (a) thorn1000m (b) 1000m (c) 3000m (View this art in color at www

dekkercom)

376 Sarac et al

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Thirty-five different simulations were produced using the same param-etres and the best senario which means to be compatible of the existancepetroleum production areas and covers the most wide area was acceptedfor this study Figure 5(andashc) shows the simulated TOC values forthe vertical directions of thorn1000m (a) 1000m (b) and 3000m (c)respectively

RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS

A conditional simulation study is first used to evaluate the TOCvalues obtained from 7 wells in the western part of Turkey The simulatedannealing technique is applied according to Deutsch and Journel (1998)

The present study indicates that three-dimensional variograms of thearea can be modeled by a spherical model The models were then used tosimulate the total organic carbon values of 120m 150m 80m blocksA number of different simulations were applied and the best scenariowas accepted The simulation results of the total organic carbon valuesare shown in Fig 5 It is clearly seen from the figure that the TOCvalues are increasing with increasing depth

Although active source rocks has found on the coastal area it isnoticed that the actual petroleum leakages are far from coastal areaThis means that migration route is toward northern part of the studyarea so exploration studies of hydrocarbon reservoirs should carry onthe carbonates which are overlied by the Antalya Nappes in the middleand northern part of the western Taurus region

REFERENCES

Alabert F (1987) Stochastic Imaging of Spatial Distributions UsingHard and Soft Information MSc thesis Stanford University253 pp

Blumenthal M M (1951) Recherches geologiques dans le Taurusaccidental dans lrsquoarriere pays drsquoAlanya Publication 5-D MineralResearch and Exploration of Turkey Ankara 1ndash134

Davis M (1987) Production of conditional simulations via the LUtriangular decomposition of the covariance matrix MathematicalGeology 19(2)91ndash98

Demirel I H Gunay Y (2000) Tectonic and karstic effects on thewestern Taurus region southwestern Turkey relations to presenttemperature gradients and total organic carbon content EnergySources 22(5)431ndash442

Geostatical Stimulation in Turkey 377

Downloaded By [TUumlBTAK EKUAL] At 0945 25 November 2008

ORDER REPRINTS

Thirty-five different simulations were produced using the same param-etres and the best senario which means to be compatible of the existancepetroleum production areas and covers the most wide area was acceptedfor this study Figure 5(andashc) shows the simulated TOC values forthe vertical directions of thorn1000m (a) 1000m (b) and 3000m (c)respectively

RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS

A conditional simulation study is first used to evaluate the TOCvalues obtained from 7 wells in the western part of Turkey The simulatedannealing technique is applied according to Deutsch and Journel (1998)

The present study indicates that three-dimensional variograms of thearea can be modeled by a spherical model The models were then used tosimulate the total organic carbon values of 120m 150m 80m blocksA number of different simulations were applied and the best scenariowas accepted The simulation results of the total organic carbon valuesare shown in Fig 5 It is clearly seen from the figure that the TOCvalues are increasing with increasing depth

Although active source rocks has found on the coastal area it isnoticed that the actual petroleum leakages are far from coastal areaThis means that migration route is toward northern part of the studyarea so exploration studies of hydrocarbon reservoirs should carry onthe carbonates which are overlied by the Antalya Nappes in the middleand northern part of the western Taurus region

REFERENCES

Alabert F (1987) Stochastic Imaging of Spatial Distributions UsingHard and Soft Information MSc thesis Stanford University253 pp

Blumenthal M M (1951) Recherches geologiques dans le Taurusaccidental dans lrsquoarriere pays drsquoAlanya Publication 5-D MineralResearch and Exploration of Turkey Ankara 1ndash134

Davis M (1987) Production of conditional simulations via the LUtriangular decomposition of the covariance matrix MathematicalGeology 19(2)91ndash98

Demirel I H Gunay Y (2000) Tectonic and karstic effects on thewestern Taurus region southwestern Turkey relations to presenttemperature gradients and total organic carbon content EnergySources 22(5)431ndash442

Geostatical Stimulation in Turkey 377

Downloaded By [TUumlBTAK EKUAL] At 0945 25 November 2008

ORDER REPRINTS

Deutsch C V Cockerham P W (1994) Practical considerations in theapplication of simulated annealing to stochastic simulationMathematical Geology 26(1)67ndash82

Deutsch C V Journel A G (1998) GSLIB Geostatistical SoftwareLibrary and Userrsquos Guide 2nd Ed Applied Geostatistics SeriesNew York Oxford University Press

Dowd P A Sarac C (1994) A neural network approach to geostatis-tical simulation Mathematical Geology 26(4)491ndash503

Dowd P A (1985) Algorithms for three-dimensional interpolationbetween planar slices In Earnshaw R A Ed FundamentalAlgorithms for Computer Graphics Vol F17 BerlinSpringer-Verlag 531ndash554

Gunay Y Bolukbasi S (1980) Finike-Kas-Korkuteli arasinda kalanBeydaglarirsquonin jeolojisi ve petrol olanaklari Report 1450 TPAOAnkara (in Turkish)

Guvenc T Demirel I H Meshur M Gul M A Tekinli U K(1994) The Paleogeography of Anatolia During the Permian andTriassic Vol 11 (A-B) New Series ESRI Occasional Publication11ndash40

Isaaks E H Srivastava R M (1989) An Introduction to AppliedGeostatistics Oxford Oxford University Press

Journel A G Huijbregts Ch J (1978) Mining Geostatistics LondonAcademic Press

Lefevre R (1967) Un nouvel element dans la geologie du Taurus Lycienles nappes drsquoAntalya (Turquie) Comptes Rendus de lrsquoAcademie desSciences 7(D)1365ndash1368

Marcoux J (1979) Antalya Naplar|n|n genel yap|s| ve Tetis guneykenar| paleocografyas|ndaki yeri Turkiye Jeoloji Kurumu Bulteni221ndash5 (in Turkish)

Matheron G (1973) The intrinsic random functions and their applica-tions Adv Appl Prob 5439ndash468

Mejia J M Rodriguez-Iturbe I (1974) On the synthesis of random fieldsampling from the spectrum an application to the generation ofhydrologic spatial processes Water Resources Research10(4)705ndash711

Monod O Marcoux J Poisson A Dumont J F (1974)Le domaine drsquoAntalya temoin de la fracturation de laplatforme Africaine au cours du Trias Bull Soc Geol France16116ndash127

Ozgul N Arpat E (1973) Structural units of the Taurus orogenic beltand their continuation in neighboring regions Geological SocietyBulletin of Greece 10(1)155ndash164

378 Sarac et al

Downloaded By [TUumlBTAK EKUAL] At 0945 25 November 2008

ORDER REPRINTS

Sarac C (1998) Geology and ore reserve estimation at Sivrihisar sepio-lite mine (Eskisehir Turkey) Transactions of the Institution ofMining and Metallurgy 107A6ndashA12

Sarac C Dowd P A (1994) Conditional simulation by ring decom-position of the covariance matrix Sciences de la Terre SerieInformatique Geologique 321ndash14

Senel M Serdaroglu M Kengil R Univerdi M Gozler M Z(1983) Teke Toroslar| guneydogusunun jeolojisi MTA Dergisi9513ndash24 (in Turkish)

Y|lmaz P O Maxwell J C Meuhlberger W R (1981) Antalya kom-pleksinin yap|sal evrimi ve Dogu Akdenizrsquodeki yeri YerbilimleriDergisi 7119ndash127 (in Turkish)

Received August 16 2002Accepted October 15 2002

Geostatical Stimulation in Turkey 379

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