Photo courtesy of Principle Power. Artist: DOCK90

FOW Dynamic Cable Systems‘Size of the Prize’Ellen Jump (ORE Catapult)

14.12.2021

• WP3 – Market Projections

• Aims

• Approach

• Findings

• Future FOW CoE dynamic cable work

Agenda

Project StructureWork Package 1

Project Management / ScopingJanuary 2021

Work Package 2Design RequirementsFeb 2021 – May 2021

Work Package 5State of the Art Review

May – July 2021

Work Package 3Market ProjectionsMay – June 2021

Work Package 4Supply Chain Capability and

CapacityJune – July 2021

Work Package 6Technology Development /

Benchmarking Programme DesignAugust 2021

Key:

Peritus International

ORE Catapult

Deliverables

State of the Art Review ReportDetailed report made available to FOW

CoE partners and key stakeholders.

Supply Chain Assessment ReportDetailed report made available to FOW

CoE partners and key stakeholders.

Market Projections Report‘Size of the Prize’ report made publicly

available to support supply chain.

Design Requirements ReportTechnical report made available to FOW

CoE partners and key stakeholders.

1 month

4 months

2 months

3 months

1 month

2 months

WP3 Aims and Approach

Aim: Develop predicted market demand estimates for a range of inter-array cable system components, to

share with the supply chain and increase understanding of the ‘size of the prize’

• Use ORE Catapult’s FOW deployment scenarios

• Using typical inter-array cable system from WP2, and baseline ~500 MW farm layouts

• Set out assumptions by decade from 2021 to 2050

• Multiply out required quantity of components

• UK focus, but global deployment predictions presented

• No local content assumptions included – full UK requirement detailed

Deployment Scenarios

Cumulative FOW deployment based on three offshore wind deployment scenarios• 75GW, 29GW FOW• 100GW, 49GW FOW• 150GW, 95GW FOW

49GW FOW by 2050 used as baseline

UK FOW deployment

FOW deployment by 5-year period (MW)

Typical System

• Tethers optional (not base case)• Connectors optional (not base case)• Bend restrictor assumed at ‘static’ connection to

bottom-fixed substation• Cable on seabed assumed to be dynamic type

cable

Assumptions

Calculation Process

• Worked out figures per decade

• Number of ~500MW wind farms calculated based on deployment scenarios

• Split of farms by water depth, cable voltage, turbine size estimated based on assumptions

• Farm layouts developed for each variation of turbine rating and cable voltage

• Calculated required components for each farm layout

• No. of components multiplied by number of farms of each type, summed for decade

Results – UK Market Requirements• Based on 49 GW FOW (100 GW wind) scenario• Summary table generated with estimated

requirements • Actual values will vary – intended as an

indication, discussion point to show potential scale of supply

• Some areas then explored in more detail e.g. interface termination assemblies; cable protection components; connectors split by size

• Discussion also included on required services

10 Also requires bend stiffener connector assemblies.

Sensitivity Cases

• FOW Deployment variation (29GW, 95GW FOW scenarios)

• Material - Including use of aluminium as well as copper

• Use of static cables on seabed between turbines

• Discussion on TLPs, floating substations, wind farm layout

Summary

• Estimated required quantities of components using:

• ORE Catapult FOW deployment scenarios

• Findings from WP2 Design Requirements

• Assumptions based on discussions with industry (and other FOW CoE projects)

• Aiming to give supply chain foresight of what’s coming, and enable them to make strategic investment decisions

• Assumptions and sensitivity cases discussed – highlighting many areas of uncertainty and how things may

change

• We welcome feedback on these projections and the views of others in the industry

Dynamic Cables – Future FOW CoE Workplan

Next Steps

• WP6 of PR5 was development of a project plan

for follow on work

• Follow-on project PR27 – Dynamic Cable Technology Development and Qualification

• Phase 1 - Qualification Framework workstream

• Risk, Failure Mode, Reliability Assessment

• Qualification Mapping

• Qualification Framework Development

• Infrastructure Review

• Phase 2 – Technology Qualification workstream

• Phase 3 – Enabling Research workstream

Dynamic Cabling Technology Development and Qualification Programme

Dynamic Cabling Technology Development & Qualification PR5 – Dynamic Cabling Systems (Complete, Jan 2021 – Nov 2021)

Phase 1 – Risk and Failure Mode Assessment and Qualification Framework (PR27) (June 21 – May 22)

Phase 2 – Technology Development and Qualification (Spring 2022, 2+ years)

Phase 3 – Enabling Research Workstream(Spring 2022 – ongoing)

2-A- Technology Development and

Qualification (higher TRL)

3-A- Industrial Research3-B- Academic Research

3-C- Knowledge Exchange3-D- Testing, Data Analysis

3-E- Guidance, Best Practice

2-B- Technology Design and Innovation

(lower TRL)

Work Package 1 Project Management and Integration

June 2021 – May 2022

Work Package 4Technology Qualification Framework and

GuidanceFeb 2022 – May 2022

Work Package 2Risk, Failure Mode and Reliability

AssessmentJuly 2021 – Dec 2021

Work Package 5Technology Qualification Enabling

Infrastructure AssessmentFeb 2022 – Apr 2022

Qualification Framework and Guidance NotesFramework and guidance report made publicly

available

Facilities and Infrastructure ReportDetailed report made available to FOW

CoE partners and key stakeholders.

2H Offshore

Key:

AstrimarORE Catapult

Deliverables

Work Package 3Technology Qualification Review

& MappingNov 2021 – Feb 2022

Technology Qualification Review & Mapping Report

Detailed report made available to FOW CoE partners and key stakeholders.

Risk, Failure and Reliability ReportDetailed report made available to FOW

CoE partners and key stakeholders.

Phase 1 - Risk and Failure Mode Assessment, Qualification Framework (PR27)

In review

In progress

Stakeholder engagement – technology developers and certification bodies to ensure WP4 outputs useful to industry

GLASGOW

BLYTH

LEVENMOUTH

GRIMSBY

ABERDEEN

CHINA

LOWESTOFT

PEMBROKESHIRE

CORNWALL