First Quarter Report 2014 Australasian Joint Agencies Scanning Network

First Quarter Report2014Australasian Joint AgenciesScanning Network

AJASN Network

14 April 2014

Disclaimer

The material in this report has been drawn from a number of sources, and is compiled for the solepurpose of stimulating discussion of possible trends, emerging issues, and/or future directions.This report has been prepared for internal discussion purposes only, and it does not necessarilyreflect the views of any government agency, nor does it constitute official government policy orstrategy. Although due care and skill has been exercised in the preparation of this report, noneof the organisations warrant its accuracy, completeness, currency or suitability for any purpose.

To the maximum extent permitted by law, the Commonwealth, the organisations and theindividuals involved with the report, disclaim all liability, including liability for negligence, for anyloss, damage, injury or cost of expense incurred by any person as a result of using or relying uponany information set out in this report. In no event will the Commonwealth, the organisations andthe individuals involved with the report or their agents be liable for incidental or consequentialdamages resulting from the use or reliance on this report.

AJASN 1st QTR 2014 [April 23 version]

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Contents

Report summary.....................................................................................................................................3

New Items...............................................................................................................................................5

Item No. 1: Inequality.................................................................................................................5

Item No.2: University to Useful - giving researchers the ROPE they need?...............................7

Item No. 3: De-regulation ..........................................................................................................8

Item No. 4: Misinformation........................................................................................................9

Item No.5: Bugs-R-Us – the ‘human microbiome’...................................................................10

Recurrent themes (tracking) ................................................................................................................11

Item No. 6: Monitoring – Robotics and AI ................................................................................11

Periodic updates...................................................................................................................................13

Item No.7: Watch this space - Geopolitics (Update) ...............................................................13

Item No. 8: Surveillance or coveillance – if surveillance is inevitable, what form should it

take? (Update) ........................................................................................................................15

Item No. 9: ‘Citizen Google’ (Update)......................................................................................16

Item No.10: Smart phones, smarter government? (Update) ..................................................17

Item No. 11: Biodiversity (Update)...........................................................................................19

Item No.12: Climate Change (Update) .....................................................................................20

Item No.13: Putting the environment ‘in a box’ (Update) ......................................................22

Item No. 14: Understanding cognition (Update)......................................................................23

To Watch...............................................................................................................................................24

Item No. 15: Bitcoin (to watch) ................................................................................................24

Item No. 16: Changes to come in construction? .....................................................................24

External relationships / networks in 2014 ..........................................................................................26

Members in 2014..................................................................................................................................27


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About this report

Horizon scanning

Horizon scanning is the systematic examination of potential threats, opportunities, and likelyfuture developments which are at the margins of current thinking and planning. Horizonscanning may explore novel and unexpected issues, as well as persistent problems or trends(DEFRA 2002). Horizon scanning is sometimes called environmental scanning. Environmentrefers to the information environment – all media and personal communications – and scanningto the logically structured, iterative identification and monitoring of selected information sources(W Schultz 2006).

The Department of Innovation, Industry, Science, and Research (2010) describes an emerginginterest in foresighting activities to provide evidence-based scientific recommendations. ThePrime Ministers Science, Engineering and Innovation Council believe these can be used bygovernment in decision-making, leading to long-term improvements in the productivity, securityand sustainability of Australia.

Structured horizon scanning processes help organisations distinguish and combine short-term,medium-range and long-term information that they need to take into account. Scanningprovides early warning about important changes and helps detect weak signals that indicateplans might be unworkable and might need to be amended.

How to read this report

This report draws on the Australasian Joint Agencies Network core database(www.ajasn.com.au). The database contains a range of entries that summarise different journalarticles and grey literature such as government, business and not-for-profit documents, analyses,conference and meeting reports, or even conversations.

A number of items in this report identify policy challenges, knowledge gaps, new knowledge, andopportunities that could be taken up. Four icons are used to represent the particular relevanceto

Policy design, development and implementation issues

Resources impacts (budget, people, facilities and so on)

Innovation and/or opportunities

Growing the knowledge base.

Remember the point is not to be right about what will happen (in the future). When horizonscanning the point is to explore what might happen. As Peter Schwartz (Global BusinessNetwork) puts it, the purpose of tools like horizon scanning is better decisions, not betterpredictions.


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Report summary

New issues

Item No 1 Inequality The continuing aftermaths of recent disruptions (e.g. the Global FinancialCrisis, the Arab Spring, the Occupy movement, the crash(es) in SouthernEurope) have helped re-ignite the debate about income inequality – it isbeing played out more frequently in mainstream policy/public interestdiscussions.

Item No 2 University toUseful

There is an increasing focus on showcasing or measuring the societalbenefits from research, and a need for better coordination in reportingand promoting the impact of these research outcomes. However, theassociated risk is that the focus on immediate outcomes might jeopardisethe potential transformative benefits that can come through longer termblue sky research.

Item No 3 De-regulation The Australian Government established a web-site dedicated to its cuttingred tape agenda (see http://cuttingredtape.gov.au/) in March 2014. De-regulation agendas are very 'fashionable with governments announcingthem (e.g. Korea, USA, & UK) following the Global Financial Crisis in 2008(10380, 10624, 10625) to stimulate economic rebuilding of their nationaleconomies and surpluses.

Item No 4 Misinformation

Although there has always been misinformation, the explosion of websites, bloggers, Facebook, Twitter, and other new media has providedfertile ground for individuals and groups to quickly provide information(regardless of its veracity and value) to a wide and diverse audience.

Item No 5 Bugs-R-Us –the humanmicrobiome

The link between the microbes that live on us and our health is the focusof a growing number of research initiatives, and new insights are emergingrapidly. A culture shift away from extreme hygiene and ‘every bug is bad’will be needed to get results.

Tracking

Item No 6 Robotics & AI This item is a recurrent quarterly item to keep track of the fast movingdevelopments in the fields of computing, robotics, and artificialintelligence (AI) which have the potential to have cascading effectsthrough the economy and specific industry sectors.

Updates

Update No 7 Geopolitics Ageing populations, global urbanisation, income inequality, energydemand and climate change are amongst the significant, evidence-backedtrends that are useful for understanding geopolitical change and civilunrest. But, there is a lot that we do not yet understand - the scans thisquarter seem to suggest that more ‘Black Swans’ are likely to occur;change might be far faster and more transformational than expected.

Update No 8 Surveillanceor coveillance

As we have seen (2013 2nd Quarterly report) the ‘surveillance society’ isemerging as a powerful notion. But increased surveillance, statesanctioned and otherwise, may have a complicated mix of positive andnegative impacts.


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Update No 9 CitizenGoogle

Google has grown into one of the world’s most prominent globalcorporations. It has become ubiquitous and politically influential – shapinghow we work, live, participate in politics, and so on. Given their reach andpower, are technology giants like Google a new form of government (withlittle accountability to anyone): Is Google becoming nation-like with manywilling netizens benefiting from the new digital acquisitions of the Googleempire?

Update No 10Smartphones,smartergovernment?

Mobile phones / smart technologies are helping increase citizenparticipation and are already transforming the relationship betweencitizens and their government. While governments are working withcitizens more often (to collect information / help deliver outcomes),governments may not yet be fully leveraging the opportunities presented.

Update No 11Biodiversity Biodiversity needs triage for its dying species and ecosystems (or zombies)

while news is that there are plenty more fish in the sea.

Update No 12ClimateChange

A number recent reports and studies discuss whether we are able to dealeffectively with the challenges and complexities of climate change.

Update No 13Putting theenvironment‘in a box’

Does the human ambition to reproduce or control and improve nature andnatural processes change our attitudes towards and approaches toconservation, natural resources management, and climate change?

Update No 14Cognition What makes us tick? More insights are being made into how we think and

make decisions.

To Watch

Item No 15 Bitcoin Is Bitcoin a fad or the foundation for a new means of economictransaction, outside of government regulated currencies?

Item No 16 Construction The way we build may soon be rebuilt.


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New Items

Item No. 1: Inequality

The continuing aftermaths of recent disruptions (e.g. the Global Financial Crisis, the Arab Spring,the Occupy movement, the crash(es) in Southern Europe) have helped re-ignite the debate aboutincome inequality – it is being played out more frequently in mainstream policy/public interestdiscussions.

Drawing on (database) scan numbers: 10275, 10364, 10457, 10515, 10553, 10633, 10634

What’s new?

Income inequality was identified as a major risk at the World Economic Forum meeting (10275), areport by Oxfam ‘Working for the Few’ shows that the wealth of the world is divided. A roundtable by the non-profit organisation Australia 21 was about how financial inequalities affectAustralians (10411). A question being debated In the United States is ‘If we can’t have (and don’tactually want) total equality or total inequality, what is the right amount of inequality (10634)?’

The International Monetary Fund is warning that wide income inequality can slow economicgrowth and is proposing ways to reduce it. Its recommendations include: raising propertytaxes, taxing the rich more than others, and increasing the eligibility age for governmentretirement programs (10633).

– The IMF researchers found that high inequality is associated with slower growth, butthe mechanism for that slower growth comes in reduced growth spells. It's not thatcountries with high inequality have steady growth rates that happen to be a littlelower than countries with low inequality; rather, they have shorter spells of economicexpansion. A 1-point increase in a country's GINI score (measure of inequality) isassociated with a decrease of about 7 percent in the length of its growth spells.1

– They also observed that governments enjoy a win-win situation where redistributionboosts growth. Extreme redistributive policies can do more harm than good, butvery few countries they examined are engaged in a sharp enough redistribution ofwealth to have a harmful effect.

– The IMF noted (in mid-2013) that it had underestimated the pain Greece wouldexperience from a sweeping austerity package; and 2013 research published by theEuropean Commission showed austerity is more harmful than the IMF estimated and,further, claimed that the commitment to deficit reduction over economic investmenthelped deepen and lengthen the Eurozone’s recession (10635).

A study by NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center has highlighted the prospect that globalindustrial civilisation could collapse in coming decades due to unsustainable resourceexploitation and increasingly unequal wealth distribution (10457).

– Poverty and inequality in Australia are rising. The latest OECD report Society at aGlance 2014: OECD Social Indicators shows that 14% of Australians are surviving on lessthan 50% of median income, while the OECD average is only 11%. The report also

1 So countries with high inequality simply can't maintain economic booms as long as countries with lower inequality.

This is consistent with the idea that growth in these countries is driven partly by loaning money to the middle class,

which is obviously less sustainable than growth driven by an increase in middle-class wages.


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shows that Australia’s social spending as a proportion of GDP is lower at 19% than theOECD average of 22%, and that child poverty increased between 2007 and 2010.

New Zealand is engaged in a national debate about inequality (seehttp://www.inequality.org.nz), Auckland University of Technology has released a special issueof the journal New Zealand Sociology (v28:3) on inequality.

- One factor that is being discussed in the net loss of New Zealanders to overseas isthat of relative deprivation. This thinking about international migration research andthe economics of labour migration suggests that migration in recent years is drivennot by wage differences between origin and destination countries, but by relativedeprivation. In other words, being worse off than one's peers at home hurts morethan being worse off than amongst strangers while living abroad. Rather than justinequalities between countries migration is also driven by inequalities within origincountries.

The Social Progress Index (SPI) designed by Michael E. Porter (he also developed the GlobalCompetitiveness Report) provides a new way to look at the success of countries; the indexstudies 132 nations and evaluates 54 social and environmental indicators for each countrythat matter to real people. Rather than measuring a country’s success by its per capita GDP,the index is based on an array of data reflecting suicide, ecosystem sustainability, propertyrights, access to healthcare and education, gender equality, attitudes toward immigrants andminorities, religious freedom, nutrition, infrastructure and more.

- New Zealand is ranked in first place in social progress while it ranks only 25th on GDPper capita. In order, the top 10 is rounded out by Switzerland, Iceland, theNetherlands, Norway, Sweden, Canada, Finland, Denmark, and Australia.

So What?

Some remedies to reduce inequality are: investment in education, adoption of progressive taxregimes, tightening labour and financial market regulations, and widening and deepening thesocial safety net. However, there is disagreement amongst economists about whether these areappropriate remedies. Disagreement is around opinions on inequality's causes, and solutionsthat are often filtered through an ideological / partisan lens.

One disputed conclusion is that middle-class wage stagnation is bad for the economy, andperhaps one reason to favour policies that reduce inequality. The International Monetary Fundwork shows that growth appears to be more sustained when inequality is moderate than when itis extreme. Very high inequality, as well as raising troubling ethical / moral questions, can resultin social divisions that reduce the efficiency of both government and the economic system.

Conventional wisdom might be changing at the IMF. Recent IMF papers may mean that theorganisation is reassessing longstanding commitments to relatively conservative economic policybeliefs. The IMF view has been influential in Australian government policy setting in the past.


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Item No.2: University to Useful - giving researchers theROPE they need?There is an increasing focus on showcasing or measuring the societal benefits from research, anda need for better coordination in reporting and promoting the impact of these researchoutcomes. However, the associated risk is that the focus on immediate outcomes mightjeopardise the potential transformative benefits that can come through longer term blue skyresearch.

Drawing on (database) scan numbers: 10640

What’s new?

According to the Australian Research Council (ARC) the Australian Government invests in:

‘…research, science and innovation for increasing productivity and wellbeing to achieve longterm economic growth for the Australian community and to enable Australia to engageeffectively with current and future national and global challenges. Research is a key contributorto improving Australia’s productivity over the longer term.

There is an increasing focus on showcasing or measuring the societal benefits from research, anda need for better coordination in reporting and promoting the impact of these researchoutcomes. This will become increasingly important in a tight fiscal government environmentwhere returns on investment in research will need to be demonstrated in terms ofenvironmental, economic, and social impact. For these reasons and others, key stakeholdersincluding government, industry and the community require more information on the benefitsderived from investment in Australian research activities.’

Recent discussions about research impact have broadened. The Feb 2014 ARC researchopportunity and performance evidence (ROPE) statement offers some scope for providingperformance evidence from a wider range than journal publications(http://www.arc.gov.au/applicants/rope_statement.htm).

One key aspect, in addition to the usual research publication outputs (and strangely ARC inputs),is ‘further evidence in relation to research impact and contributions to the field and mostsignificant contributions to the research field’. This continues a theme of searching for a moremeaningful measure of research and University education impact. There are very good examplesof applied research evaluation already available from Rural RDCs that could be used directly or astemplates. This is an opportunity for policy makers to access and invest in better research.

University growth has been predicated on outside/international research earnings from full-feepaying students and so there has been a decade of huge international research studentgraduations and hardly any domestic research students.

So What?

ARCs recent broadening of impact (ROPE) will perhaps be a useful opportunity. People wantingto get the best researchers onto the right tasks can help their chances by providing evidence thatthe research has impact. Evaluation of the impact of research investment is a win for researchersand investors when it is provided as evidence of contributions. There continues to be a risk thatthe focus will be on immediate outcomes and will jeopardise the potential transformativebenefits that can come through longer term blue sky research.


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Item No. 3: De-regulationDe-regulation agendas are very 'fashionable2 with governments announcing them (e.g. Korea,USA, & UK) following the Global Financial Crisis in 2008 (10380, 10624, 10625) to stimulateeconomic rebuilding of their national economies and surpluses. The Australian Governmentestablished a web-site dedicated to its cutting red tape agenda (seehttp://cuttingredtape.gov.au/) in March 2014.

Drawing on (database) scan numbers: 10238, 10380, 10256, 10358, 10482, 10571, 10613, 10624,10625, 10626, 10627, & 10631

What’s new?

There are contradictory views about regulation and de-regulation as reflected in some recentarticles:

Recent Royal Commission revelations into the home insulation scheme - that the Governmentconsidered and then rejected a more onerous training regime for insulation installers due tothe regulatory burden such a regime would impose – underscore the difficulties involved inbalancing regulation and de-regulation.

One of the claimed causes of the Global Financial Crisis was insufficient regulation of thefinance / banking sector which allowed management (in the United States) to engage in loan‘pushing’ rather than ‘good lending.’ This claim is supported in some research papers (e.g.10626).

Plant scientists in Europe are calling for a move to a more pharmaceutical-like system ofregulation for GM crops. They claim it is not appropriate to have a regulatory framework thatis based on the premise that GM crops are more hazardous than crop varieties produced byconventional plant breeding (10613).

A study in the World Health Organisation Bulletin claims that ‘Market deregulation policiesmay contribute to the obesity epidemic by facilitating the spread of fast food (10482, 10627).’

A Pew report analysing the preferences of US Millennials suggests a possible generationalshift in attitudes towards regulation (10631). The survey indicates that Millennials are moreopen to the idea of an activist government that looks out for the best interests of the people.

So What?

A series of questions about when to regulate and when to choose another approach are beingraised. Can de-regulation and self-regulation be pushed ‘too far’? If governments choose not toregulate will this be viewed favourably or unfavourably? What forms of intervention, if any, willother sectors of society (business, media and civil society) be able to introduce and how mightany steps they take influence representative democracy?

2 However, the agenda is not new – de-regulation efforts have been on the table for more than ten years

under different labels in Australia and overseas (‘better regulation’, ‘smart regulation’ etc.).


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Item No. 4: Misinformation

Although there has always been misinformation, the explosion of web sites, bloggers, Facebook,Twitter, and other new media has provided fertile ground for individuals and groups to quicklyprovide information (regardless of its veracity and value) to a wide and diverse audience.

Drawing on (database) scan numbers: 9864, 10468, 10522, 10525, 10545, 10623

Some related articles from this quarter are:

Well-established science is taken by many as just one of a range of possible viewpoints,no matter the credulity of those other viewpoints. For example, parents refusing tovaccinate their children for fear it causes autism (although this link can been consistentlydisproved), belief that the threat of global warming is exaggerated (despite consensus inthe scientific community that anthropogenic climate change is real), and otherpseudoscientific beliefs and practices.

Italian researchers studied election misinformation and how it spawns (10522) and foundthat people attracted to alternative news sources because of distrust of conventionalnews sources are more susceptible to believing false or satirical content is real. Theysuggest that conspiracy theories seem to come about by a process in which ordinarysatirical commentary or obviously false content somehow jumps the credulity barrier.

University of Washington researchers found that misinformation spread widely onTwitter after the 2013 Boston Marathon bombing, despite users’ efforts to correctrumours that were inaccurate. Corrective tweets were minimal when compared with thevolume of tweets that spread incorrect information. The researchers hope to develop atool that could let users know when a particular tweet is being questioned as untrue byanother tweet. The real-time tool wouldn’t try to glean whether a tweet is true oruntrue, but it would track instances where one tweet contests another (9864, 10525).

There has been a great amount of idle speculation and misinformation about the missingflight MH370 in the media and around the web. Unverified speculation has beencompounded by journalists citing each other's articles as sources. Much of the rumourscirculating could not be traced back to a verifiably knowledgeable source (10623).

The new Spitz reading application, which promises to increase reading speeds three-fold,‘ignores the time and cognitive effort required to integrate the words in a text forcomprehension’ (10523).

Nothing made anti-vaccination parents more amenable to vaccinating their kids (10448,10468).

A new study (Robert Brulle’s 2013 article: ‘Institutionalizing delay: foundation funding andthe creation of U.S. climate change counter-movement organizations’) exposed theorganisational underpinnings and funding behind the powerful climate changecountermovement. This study marked the first peer-reviewed, comprehensive analysisever conducted of the sources of funding that maintain the denial effort (10545).

In ‘The economic power of the Golden Rice opposition’ German economists JustusWesseler and David Zilberman have quantified the price of GMO opposition in terms ofhuman health. They claim the delayed application of Golden Rice in India alone has cost1,424,000 life years since 2002 (a metric that includes not only those who have died, butthose who have suffered blindness and other Vitamin A-related disabilities). Theysuggest that the opponents of Golden Rice (e.g. Greenpeace, Sierra Club, and the USCenter for Food Safety) who have caused this harm should be held accountable.


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The rise of fact checking services is of interest. In addition, these sorts of questions havespawned a new field of study. Agnotology is the study of culturally induced ignorance ordoubt, particularly the publication of inaccurate or misleading scientific data.3

So What?

Has the modernist yearning for truth (enshrined in inferential statistical test) morphed into apost-modern tolerance of approximations of truths (sharpened on crowd-tests)?

There are many causes of inaccurate information, some are inadvertent, and other causes ofinaccurate information are more pernicious – and – sometimes information is tainted with anagenda, whether political, religious, economic, or some other (e.g. 9688). When falseinformation is reported as fact it can be incredibly damaging. The influence of this information ispowerful, so much so that some people support policies, and take actions, that are not in theirbest interests (10448, 10468, & 10623). The reality is that someone has to decide on what isfactual and what is not – especially those ‘facts’ needed to inform / elevate the level of publicdebate. Who can we trust to give us the most accurate information available?

With the advent of real-time reporting through social media the speed of disclosure is animportant challenge for governments, businesses, and not-for-profits. Speed sometimes involvesa trade-off between the reliability of information, respect for privacy, and the (premature?)release of information, so:

How do/will governments and others manage the public expectation that all information willbe released immediately, when it’s not always feasible / reasonable?

Are citizens confusing the concepts of immediate delivery of breaking news with publicinformation and government / others’ transparency?

Item No.5: Bugs-R-Us – the ‘human microbiome’The link between the microbes that live on us and our health is the focus of a growing number ofresearch initiatives, and new insights are emerging rapidly. A culture shift away from extremehygiene and ‘every bug is bad’ will be needed to get results.

Drawing on (database) scan numbers: 1045o, 10499, 9891, 9287

What’s new?

Researchers/microbiologists have studied the bacteria that reside on and within the human bodyfor some time. However, recent advances in DNA sequencing technologies and other molecularsciences have allowed for a more thorough examination of the ‘microbiome.’

Recent studies show that the microbiome may be responsible for / involved in well and poorlyfunctioning processes from food digestion to vitamin synthesis, and even brain function. Themicrobiome might also play a role in obesity and inflammatory bowel disease, and so on.

3 The term was coined by Robert N. Proctor, a Stanford University professor specializing in the history of science and

technology. Agnotology also focuses on how and why diverse forms of knowledge do not ‘come to be,’ or are ignored

or delayed. Proctor published a book in 2008 called ‘Agnotology: The Making and Unmaking of Ignorance.’ A search of

Google Scholar shows 545 articles have been published on Agnotology since about 2007.


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J. Craig Venter (involved in sequencing the first human genome) has set up a company toinvestigate how to use the genome and the microbiome to enhance human longevity –making 100 the new 60 (10450).

The notion of making the microbiome healthier is beginning to be researched (10499); thismight lead to alternative therapies and possibly reduce antibiotic use. For instance Arecently-revived medical therapy– bacteriotheraphy or fecal transplants – has hadtremendous success in treating patients with C. difficle infections by taking full advantage ofthe human microbiome’s changeability \.

So What?

Interest in microbiomes and just how important these resident microbes are to our health (theroles they play in maintaining our immune systems, contributing to the digestion of our food, andacting as a first line of defence against pathogens) is expanding. If it is true that there are manydiseases that may be the result of disturbed microbiomes; new microbiome-based medicaltreatments and applications may emerge – but – for now – they are on the horizon. A cultureshift away from extreme hygiene and ‘every bug is bad’ will be needed to get results.

Recurrent themes (tracking)

Item No. 6: Monitoring – Robotics and AIThis item is proposed to be a recurrent quarterly item to keep track of the fast movingdevelopments in the fields of computing, robotics, and artificial intelligence (AI) which have thepotential to have cascading effects through the economy and specific industry sectors.

Drawing on (database) scan numbers: 10434, 10435, 10436, 10438, 10442, 10443, 10452, 10559,10580

What’s new?

A number of developments have happened in the AI and robotics field, including discussionabout their significance.

Computing

Intel has introduced a new computer the size of an SD card, based on its 22nm transistortechnology. Intel expects it to be a big part of wearable and connected computers and hasannounced a ‘Make it Wearable’ competition with up to $1.3 million in prizes for developers(10435)

A team at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology has created an ultra-thin and ultra-flexible circuit on a parylene film just a single micrometre thick (one sixtieth of that of ahuman hair). This is thin enough that it could sit on a contact lens (10436)

Continued miniaturisation in computing may offer big opportunities for wearable andubiquitous computing.


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Artificial Intelligence

Google appears to be in the process of buying up considerable capability in artificialintelligence. It recently agreed to buy the UK AI firm Deepmind, which specialises in machinelearning, advanced algorithms, and systems neuroscience, for £400m. The firm aims todevelop computers that think like humans (10438)

Is IBM’s ‘Watson’ real artificial intelligence? There is continued debate as to what makes for‘true’ AI or not, with some arguing that instead of asking whether machines think just likehumans, we should ask in what ways are they intelligent, and what forms of intelligencewould bring benefit to our civilisation. (10442)

Are we at the Dawn of the Age of Artificial Intelligence? Some argue that we are beginning tosee the emergence of real AI and thinking machines, which combined with a vast increase inthe digital connection of the world’s population, will bring much larger changes and will trulydefine the era of computing. Rapid communications, information acquisition and knowledgesharing have become much more democratic (10443)

Robotics

MIT’s Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence Laboratory has developed a ‘soft’ roboticfish, made of soft silicone, that can perform sophisticated, agile movements (10580)

The Perpetual Robotics Laboratory in Italy have developed a ‘Body Extender’ exoskeleton forpeople which can lift 50kg in each hand and which can exert 10 times the force the userapplies to an object (10452)

The United Arab Emirates has launched a million dollar contest to develop and implement afleet of delivery drones within a year, with the intent that the drones will deliver governmentdocuments. The drones would be monitored and operated by human pilots (10559)

Convergence

Morgan Stanley has predicted that the advanced manufacturing company Tesla Motors willdisrupt both the automotive and the energy industry with its creation of a new ‘gigafactory’for building Li-ion battery packs for its electric cars. Morgan Stanley predicts that Tesla’srevenue will increase 60-fold by 2028 (from $2.5 billion in 2013) (10434)

So What?

There appears to be a growing discussion about what AI and whether we are beginning to see itsemergence. Google evidently believes that this is or soon will be a reality, with an ambitiousacquisition program stretching over AI and advanced robotics. The philosophical aspects of thediscussion about what AI is and what it means may reshape how we think about concepts such asconsciousness and sentience, in turn changing the way we think about humans and animals.

Firms that draw together these and other technological trends stand to potentially makesignificant windfalls – for instance Tesla Motors which is aiming to bring together manufacturing(using sophisticated robotics), energy storage, transport, software and services and, as oneinvestment firm has predicted, could experience a 60 fold revenue increase in 15 years because ofit.


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Periodic updates

Item No.7: Watch this space - Geopolitics (Update)Ageing populations, global urbanisation, income inequality, energy demand and climate changeare amongst the significant, evidence-backed trends that are useful for understandinggeopolitical change and civil unrest. But, there is a lot that we do not yet understand - the scansthis quarter seem to suggest that more ‘Black Swans’ are likely to occur; change might be farfaster and more transformational than expected.

Drawing on (database) scan numbers: 10510, 10524, 10574, 10604, 10628, 10629, 10630,10632

Freedom House’s annual report on political rights and civil liberties, Freedom in the World 2014,showed a decline in freedom around the world for the eighth consecutive year. The report saysthat the countries experiencing setbacks included a ‘worrying number of strategically oreconomically significant states whose political trajectories influence developments well beyondtheir borders: Egypt, Turkey, Russia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Indonesia, Thailand, andVenezuela.’ Also notable was a growing list of countries experiencing civil wars / terroristcampaigns: Central African Republic, South Sudan, Afghanistan, Somalia, Iraq, Yemen, and Syria.

Youth

The Global Youth Wellbeing Index (first released in April 2014) says that although half the world’spopulation is under 25 years old, young people in more than two dozen countries feel that theiropportunities for educational, economic, and societal advancement are limited. Australia has thehighest rate of youth wellbeing with a score of .752, while Nigeria comes in last with .375. (TheNigerian economy has recently been found to be larger than that of South Africa, following arecalculation of its GDP). When there aren’t enough jobs to employ the young, which cangalvanize conflict – as rising income inequality, unaffordable property, and so on.

Ukraine

Tensions in the eastern regions of the Ukraine continue to play out.

Russia changed its diplomatic approach in its immediate region early in 2014 by declaring Russiahad a right to intervene in neighbouring countries and by annexing Crimea. The takeoverfollowed the overthrow of Ukraine's pro-Moscow president, Viktor Yanukovich, after months ofstreet protests prompted by his rejection of a trade deal with the EU.

Noteworthy points/questions:

Can the U.S. and Russia still reach a compromise on Syria now that tensions are so high?

Will the crisis in Ukraine affect Russia – China’s negotiations over gas from Siberia? PresidentPutin is scheduled to visit China in May.

The World Bank has estimated that the Russian economy could shrink by 1.8 percent this yearif instability over Ukraine continues and Russia is hit with more Western sanctions. (Also,Russian banks have at least $30 billion of exposure in total to Ukraine.)

In economic terms, Ukraine’s global relevance is limited. The country only accounts for about0.2 percent of global GDP.

However, Ukraine is a significant agricultural exporter (3rd largest exporter of corn, 6th ofwheat). A collapse of its economy could impact food prices.


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Ukraine is an energy distribution hub (around 80 percent of Russian gas is exported toEurope and half of those exports go through Ukraine). Germany, Turkey and Italy areexposed. If they need to start buying natural gas in the spot market, rising energy costs arelikely to translate into rising manufacturing costs / inflation. The US might export energy toEurope.

China

China’s economic growth is slowing and domestic and social conditions are worsening. MorganStanley suggested in a recent report that China will soon be meeting its “Minsky Moment,” or a“disorderly unwind” of private sector and local government debt. As it becomes harder forborrowers to make money to pay back their loans, Morgan Stanley predicts that China’s GDPgrowth could slow to 4% in two years, dampening global economic growth enough to cause aglobal earnings recession.

‘China's double-digit increases to defence spending are without peer among the major powers’according to Harvard’s Belfer Centre. This might exacerbate growing tensions with Japan overthe Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea and with the Philippines and Vietnam over Chineseterritorial claims in the South China Sea.

Middle East

There is significant instability in the Middle East (e.g. Saudi Arabia, Syria, Iraq, Bahrain, Turkey,and Qatar; Iranian nuclear weapons). Restoration of Middle Eastern stability is unlikely in theshort-term – for example the possibility of a political settlement of the Syrian crisis has likelydimmed with Crimea (i.e. it depended on a Russia – U.S. brokered arrangement).

Until Egypt's military/government reaches an accommodation with its largest oppositionmovement, the Muslim Brotherhood, there will violence, instability, and radicalisation.

Venezuela

Venezuela is a highly polarized and divided country, with about half of the population supportingthe government while the other half supports the opposition. Venezuelan protests revolvearound high levels of violent crime, inflation, and the increasing scarcity of basic goods.

Energy economy

The unconventional energy revolution has already had important geopolitical implications (e.g.US energy independence). Technology advances are likely to continue to change the energyindustry, for the better (productivity, safety, and sustainability) and for the worse (cyber-attack).Geopolitical events might also affect the ability / willingness of the oil industry to maintaininvestment in large projects.

Climate Change

The latest IPCC Working Group II report warns of ever more dangerous impacts without rapidaction to curb carbon emissions, including extreme weather, sea level rise and speciesextinctions. Building on the latest report from the IPCC, a US military assessment delivered toPresident Barack Obama in March 2014 said poverty, pollution, and political instability were likelyconsequences of a warming world. The American Association for the Advancement of Scientists(AAAS) also warned of the security implications of climate change in a study called What WeKnow (see Item No. 12 of this report).


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So What?

Failed states, extreme weather events, and mass migration continue to represent real dangers toglobal stability in the coming years. Although discussing the oil industry only, the 2014 WorldEconomic Forum (10630) noted that the oil industry has faced ‘more Black Swans since 2012 thanperhaps any other time in its history not only from these geopolitical and severe weather events,but also from disruptive technologies.’ If this is generalisable (i.e. more Black Swans) as anumber of scans this quarter seem to suggest, change might be far faster and moretransformational than expected.

Item No. 8: Surveillance or coveillance – if surveillance isinevitable, what form should it take? (Update)As we have seen (2013 2nd Quarterly report) the ‘surveillance society’ is emerging as a powerfulnotion. But increased surveillance, state sanctioned and otherwise, may have a complicated mixof positive and negative impacts.


What’s new?

New surveillance technologies are offering insight into just how much information could becaptured on a day to day basis. New technologies and practices, such as 192 megapixel-camerasaffixed to landmarks or to fixed-wing aircraft, might offer significantly more information forpolice on crimes (10439). In China, drones are being used to monitor pollution levels fromindustrial facilities to help enforce air quality and emissions limits (10598). Data trails and ‘digitalselves’ may mean that computers will soon know ourselves better than we do (10447) – whichcould offer a fuller picture of our own identities, to ourselves, but also to employers, doctors, andlaw enforcement. These sorts of benefits suggest that an increase in the adoption of surveillancetechnologies are not only unavoidable but have no boundary.

It is emerging that the choice is more about how rather than why surveillance is conducted –whether it be secret and one-way or mutual and transparent coveillance, that includes watchingthe watchers (10564). This flows on to nature and operation of the World Wide Web with Sir TimBerners-Lee recently arguing for a global constitution or bill of rights, to protect the web’sopenness and neutrality from government and corporate influence (10454). Other options maybe for more tailored whistle-blower sites – such as WildLeaks which allows users to uploadinformation about poaching, wildlife tracking, and illegal logging (10568). Alternatively, businesspressures might act as a prompt for some businesses to push back against governmentsurveillance as a harm against their products and business models – e.g. for providers such asDropbox and Amazon (10506).

So What?

Surveillance looks increasingly established as a by-product of living in a digital world. The rules,and rights, and vision of the type of surveillance, however, are far from established.


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Governments, industries, and communities will likely be pulled in many directions to determinewhat is acceptable and what is not.

Item No. 9: ‘Citizen Google’ (Update)Google has grown into one of the world’s most prominent global corporations. It has becomeubiquitous and politically influential – shaping how we work, live, participate in politics, and soon. Given their reach and power, are technology giants like Google a new form of government(with little accountability to anyone): Is Google is becoming nation-like with many willing netizensbenefiting from the new digital acquisitions of the Google empire?

Drawing on (database) scan numbers: 10354, 10438, 10423, 10494, 10273, 10312, 10334, 10363

What’s new?

AJASN members, stimulated by the numerous scans relating to Google acquisitions were asked if‘Is Google becoming like a nation state or a mega-state?’ There is evidence there are people whoare affective and effective citizens of Google. Googles values (principles, volunteerism,freedoms, secrecy, promotion of its interests, and tolerance of diversity) are readily shown topervade the internet. Google's interaction with China and Russia shows it behaving like a nation– including withdrawing ambassadors and services. It has an empire-building acquisition programwith purchases such as Deep Mind AI giving new capacity and this colonial power works throughtakeovers of either useful or competitor businesses.

Google seems to be able to cheat death and taxes. Last year Google acquired anti-aging researchCalico to help protect netizens from growing old. Huge names in medical research are recruitedinto Google’s Calico research to cheat death.

Google's ability to avoid tax is well known and the rise of bitcoin, coupled with Google’svoracious global appetite, suggests it will establish either an alternative or buy-out theinternational currency next. The G20 and Malcolm Turnbull are very annoyed. Google paid just$74,176 in Australian tax last year, despite making an estimated $1 billion in revenue from theAustralian market. The G20 Finance Ministers want their tax back from offshore (Feb 2014Sydney) and their Communiqué responds to Base Erosion and Profit Shifting principles, such astaxing where economic activities deriving the profits/values are performed.

The ability to ask questions about Google’s status is eroded by Google itself. Ever since NicholasCarr’s (2008) question ‘Does Google making us stupid?’ the answers have been, generally not.Whereas just a few years ago we were shaped by what we read; now we are becoming what wesearch for. Google's netizens want to dodge the inevitability of death and tax.

So What?

Google is globally dominant and G20 responses might not be intelligent enough to keep it playingnicely. Perhaps it will soon qualify for a UN Security Council seat.


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Item No.10: Smart phones, smarter government?(Update)Mobile phones / smart technologies are helping increase citizen participation and are alreadytransforming the relationship between citizens and their government. While governments areworking with citizens more often (to collect information / help deliver outcomes), governmentsmay not yet be fully leveraging the opportunities presented.

Drawing on (database) scan numbers: 10077, 10477, 10511, 10664, 10645, 10647, 10648, 10649

What’s new?

In a first-of-its-kind study, researchers looking at smartphone-based voting found that voterswho used a smartphone to vote in a mock election made fewer errors than when they votedusing traditional methods (10477).

Using a smartphone to send information about your health to your doctor or to a nationaldatabase won’t in and of itself deliver better healthcare outcomes (10511).

A December 2013 report by the Science for Environment Policy group at the EuropeanCommission called ‘IN-DEPTH REPORT: Environmental Citizen Science (Issue 9)’ exploredacademic research into citizen science practice and theory, and outlined a number of casestudy projects.

- Overall it found that ‘the potential value of citizen science is high, but that thispotential, particularly for citizens and policymakers, remains largely untapped.’

- In addition, ‘while new technologies, such as smartphones and tablets, may enablemass participation, it is worth considering whether more valuable interactions anddiscussions between those involved in citizen science are being missed (10644).’

Although there is not (yet) much research on the quality of citizen contributions in science –it is beginning to emerge.

- Early research – more is needed – suggests that adopting an approach in which high-performing volunteers are more empowered might be worth investigating.

- According to Ned et al (2014) factors that enhance participation frequency may notnecessarily lead to enhanced contribution quality, and in some case actually detractfrom quality, calling for a more careful investigation of the effects of motivation(10645).

Smart phone tools such as quick response (QR) codes may provide a cost-effective way for

government and land managers to better understand what the community values. A

smartphone is used as a QR-code scanner, displaying the code and converting it to a standard

URL for a website, thereby removing the need for a user to type it into a web browser. This is

especially important in the environmental sector where we do not have good information on

demand.

- QR codes have been used in US parks to allow visitors to have more interactive park

experiences e.g. downloading park maps, information on flora, fauna and historic

sites. These tools also allow you to track how often/what codes are being accessed

and may thus provide better information on what public assets and services are in

demand.


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The use of smartphones in managing human and animal disease outbreaks has led to the

coining of new words – ‘infodemiology’ and ‘infoveillance’ (10647).

- Smartphones were used to improve awareness and increase reporting during an

outbreak of cyclosporiasis in Iowa in July 2013. Cyclosporiasis outbreaks are rare and

the condition may not be recognized when it does occur. The active use of Twitter

and mobile phones during the outbreak led to improved reporting and more

powerful statistical analyses, and a greater chance of finding the source of infection.

- Magpi (formerly EpiSurveyor) is a mobile data collection system widely-used in theinternational development sector. An example of its use is the investigation andcontainment of a polio outbreak in Kenya, where health workers were able to trackan emergency vaccination campaign using Magpi on smartphones (10648).

- In the animal health sector, mobile phones are often used in developing countries to

detect outbreaks of avian influenza. Disease information can be shared in real-time

during an outbreak with mapping of poultry infrastructure, such as distance between

broiler and layer operations, slaughterhouse and market locations (10649). This can

improve decision-making during the response.

So What?

Smart phones and their associated apps are increasingly being used by governments to leveragethe public’s capacity and expertise to capture useful information. Tools range from reportingcrime to monitoring and tracking changes to biodiversity.

Governments may not yet be fully grasping the full value of working with citizens opportunitiespresented by these technologies such as having citizens help (1) define policy issues / (scientific)research questions, (2) contribute local and situation-specific knowledge, (3) carry out complexanalyses and (4) participate in decision-making.

For now:

It is worth exploring the possibilities of using these types of tools to capture user datathat might one day allow us to better inform priority areas for investment andmanagement.

It might be time for public servants to turn their attention to how we can use smartphone technology to better understand public preferences for public assets and services.

Smart phone data could provide information about how people actually behave (ratherthan how they say or think they behave).

The possibilities of linking data from personal consumption and behaviours, toenvironmental and geo-locational data may offer insight correlations, causalities and theeffectiveness of government intervention and prioritising

Concerns about who controls the information collected by smart technologies and forwhat purpose it is used will need to be addressed. New technologies will not solve issuesof power and rights.


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Item No. 11: Biodiversity (Update)Biodiversity needs triage for its dying species and ecosystems (or zombies) while news is thatthere are plenty more fish in the sea.

Drawing on (database) scan numbers: 10255, 10273, 10487, 10491, 10638, 10639

What’s new?

Triage – the process of assigning a degree of urgency or priority of treatment, or of assigningresources on a basis of expediency (that is on convenience and practicability regardless of whetherimproper or immoral).

There is a wedge being driven through the ecological community. The wedge is wearing anurse’s uniform and the badge says ‘triage’. At the thin end of the wedge there is the argumentfor preserving as a whole both for intrinsic value and for ecosystem services. Moving up thewedge we are divided between ‘save all’ or ‘save what’s valuable’.

These squabbles within ecology between conservation and commercially-informed managementmethods are killing the passion, eroding the precautionary principle, and burning the idea ofwilderness.

In this quarter in Australia there has debate about a relatively rapid adoption of mainly neo-liberalmarket forces to work on biodiversity. Divisive discussions about biodiversity triage (10638 and10639 for example) among ecologists are creating a smokescreen over the policy problems. Theyare concealing an acceptance that liberal democracy has failed its conservation promise.

We now talk of zombie (living dead) ecosystems and species, and the current response is forcitizens and the green army to do something about it (10637).

With a change of language from preservation to sustainable use, there has been a loss inbiodiversity awareness. Sustainable fisheries, forestry, farming, government, and urban-livingmessaging (green wash) are mainstream now. Removal of green tape has quickly replaced theconservation paradigm that survived in harder economic times in the past and may havepreviously defined Australia’s environmental stewardship reputation. Immediate utilitarian valueovershadows longer term returns on investment (biomedicines, tourism etc?). Would a thylacineor a wheat field do more for a local economy? Rarer resources can have greater market value.

Additional complexity and confusion may have frightened people away. Functional biodiversity(rather than species richness) is highest in places like the Galápagos with only moderate speciescounts; whereas functional biodiversity is low in many classical hotspots with high speciescounts, such as the iconic coral triangle of the west Pacific.

Trends in Ecology and Evolution raises the issue of trying to save island biodiversity hot spots. Anestimated 6-19 % of the 4,500 islands in the study were expected to eventually drown. Are these‘zombie’ islands?

Does the ‘zombie’ argument also provide a smokescreen for continued unsustainable use?Humans have failed to manage wild fisheries to provide for their own food security or livelihoods.As China, India and Indonesia continue to reconfigure their fishing fleets to get deep oceantreasure there is likely to be little left to take; 85 per cent of global fish stocks are over-exploited,depleted, full exploited or in recovery from exploitation. Wild fisheries reporting isunderestimating the take according to satellite imagery of the fishing industry infrastructure.Based on current practices and trends the ‘end of the world’ for the oceans will be 2050.

When we focus on one aspect of a system we can also miss opportunities. Below the pelagic(top layer of the open sea) fish layer lies the mesopelagic which has apparently much morebiomass than scientists thought; up from 1 billion tons to more than 10 billion and making up


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something like 95 per cent of the total fish in the sea. With changing ecosystem dynamics wecould lose a resource we didn’t know we had.

So What?

When we assign one species or ecosystem to the scrapheap can we be sure of its real value andpotential? The ability to recover is also unpredictable. Many ‘zombie’ species have been savedbefore, and probably not on expediency arguments. Is it really matter of budget or a matter ofwillpower?

Actually, this is a continuing trend and the surprising thing is how steadily the paradigm haschanged. Just as accepting triage of those wounded in war avoids other questions using triage inconservation (according to David Lindenmayer), ‘makes extinction acceptable, and allowsdecision-makers to get away with allocating insufficient resources to address environmentalproblems.’

The shift in responsibility to the citizenry, and call for ‘what do you want to save’ could be aslippery slope. The triage argument rings with cried of the budget for conservation won’t saveeverything. However in a selective process we may find ourselves bidding for budgets for thefew things we can name that we do want to save. What are your priorities? How much do youneed?

Do we really want to declare the battle lost and watch resources being sent to another frontline?Are we in fact blowing up our own tanks mid-fight?

Item No.12: Climate Change (Update)A number recent reports and studies discuss whether we are able to deal effectively with thechallenges and complexities of climate change.

Drawing on (database) scan numbers: 10385, 10386, 10457, 10471, 10489, 10520, 10526, 10538,10539, 10545, 10566, 10569, 10576, 10602, 10613

What’s new?

25 years on – from the first report – the latest report ‘Climate Change 2014: Impacts,Adaptation and Vulnerabilities’ of UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) isalarming (but with added understanding of climate change impacts and greater scientificcertainty4). In fact, the IPCC now says climate change is already cutting into food suppliesand has the ability to fuel conflict.

- A new study by a physics professor Dr. Shaun Lovejoy (McGill University) ‘Scalingfluctuation analysis and statistical hypothesis testing of anthropogenic warming’published April 6 in the journal Climate Dynamics concludes ‘the natural variabilityhypothesis can be ruled out with confidence levels greater than 99 percent and with

4A recent paper that attempted to estimate the degree of scientific agreement over whether human activity was

causing global warming was published in 2013 by John Cook et al. It examined abstracts from 11,944 peer-reviewedclimate-science journal articles published between 1991-2011. Of the papers which indicated a view on the topic, 97.1per cent supported the proposition that humans were causing global warming.


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the most likely values at levels greater than 99.9 percent.’ This strongly refutes theargument the warming is natural in origin.

The public conversation/debate on climate change remains difficult – it highlights howcomplex issues at the intersection of science, policy, and politics, can be derailed. A keyproblem in dealing with climate change is not scientific uncertainty; it is the inability ofpolitical systems to deal with intergenerational and unevenly distributed risks.

- The current Australian government has significantly re-organised / rationalisedinstitutions responsible for climate change information and policy advice since it waselected.

- An Essential Poll (April 2014) by Crikey shows (see below) the older you are– the lesslikely you are to believe that human activity is leading to global warming. The level ofbelief in climate change clearly and steadily declines with age. This might be becauseyou are less likely to experience the dangerous consequences of climate change.

A second issue is that many of the changes we are seeing are essentially unstoppable (i.e. thecumulative production of carbon is the problem) so some people wonder about the value ofspending money now (i.e. there is little reward now).

- In this vein, in April, James Lovelock, (detected CFCs in the atmosphere, proposed theGaia hypotheses) suggested that society should retreat to ‘climate-controlled cities’as the regulation of the climate of these cities might be far easier, more economicand safer option in a hot climate than the regulation by geoengineering of the wholeplanet.

- The International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) released a discussion paper(April) 'How Does Climate Change Alter Agricultural Strategies to Support FoodSecurity,' that identifies climate adaptation strategies for agricultural systems, withthe aim of achieving food security and reducing poverty.

If a binding international agreement (a ‘top down’ approach) seems increasingly unlikely (asis claimed by some on social media), and a technological ‘clean energy’ breakthrough isuncertain (also asserted on social media platforms) – this might mean that climate change


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responses will likely be more ‘bilateral’, ‘local’, and ‘national.’ If so, does the question thenbecome: How do scientists / officials / others (like those at the IPCC) help decision-makersmake better decisions that taken together result in a solution? And, can a series of initiativesdeliver an outcome (in this case a reduction in emissions) effectively?

A paper by Rosen and Guenther ‘The economics of mitigating climate change: What can weknow? in Technological Forecasting and Social Change (February 2014) argues various kindsof uncertainties raise serious questions about whether or not the net costs and benefits ofmitigation over periods as long as 50 years or a century can be known accurately enough tobe useful to policymakers and citizens. This argument directly challenges commentators andothers who insist that governments should adopt policies designed to limit climate changeonly if they can make a strong economic case for doing so. Essentially, it shifts the ground ofthe debate from ‘what is affordable?’ to ‘what is survivable?’

So What?

The subject of climate change / global warming remains divisive; research has identified a numberof psychological barriers that can prevent people from believing in or acting on messages aboutclimate change.

It is also important that strategies adopted to manage climate change are consistent withpublic sentiment. We need to consider what actions taken to slow down / adapt to climatechange will achieve public buy-in. For example, does the elimination of fossil fuel subsidiesseem more doable now that the Commonwealth is thinking about how to reduce the budgetdeficit?

If we’re going to ask people to change how we live because of climate change impacts, it’simportant that we develop (further) the ability to anticipate / communicate how crops,forests and animals might be affected by change – not an easy thing to do given that mostecosystems / biological responses to climate change are likely to be non-linear i.e. there arebound to be surprises – i.e. ecosystems / non-linear systems have tipping points.

Item No.13: Putting the environment ‘in a box’ (Update)Does the human ambition to reproduce or control and improve nature and natural processeschange our attitudes towards and approaches to conservation, natural resources management,and climate change?

Drawing on (database) scan numbers: 10513, 10556, 10646

What’s new?

For several decades we have used progressively more advanced applications of science andtechnology to ‘manage’ / respond to nature, and our consumption of natural resources. Somecommentators go so far as to say that ‘the reality is that mainstream environmental discourse,especially in the political realm, has placed its faith, explicitly or implicitly, almost entirely intechno-fixes’ (10646).

The US Agency for International Development (USAID) announced the GlobalDevelopment Lab, with the goal of eliminating extreme poverty by 2030 usingtechnology-based solutions in April.


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Also in April, the UK government announced the launch of the Newton Fund, a £375m potdesigned to improve the research capacities (and strengthen ties with Britain) ofemerging powers such as Brazil, India and South Africa.

How will activities (as above) and proposals – if successful - for Sub-Biosphere 2 (a city that wouldbe submerged during rough seas), floating villages (10556), hydroponic farms in repurposedshipping containers (10513) and the like affect our relationships with/understanding of bothadvanced technologies and nature?

So What?

Does our ability to manage artificial or small scale environments blind us to the fact that wecannot control nature?

Item No. 14: Understanding cognition (Update)What makes us tick? More insights are being made into how we think and make decisions.


What’s new?

A number of items identified new insights into human cognitive and decision making processes.These included:

Emerging research from the field of ‘embodied cognition’ which suggests that the bodyand physiological stimuli can strongly influence the mind in ways that we might notexpect. Examples included a link between a fondness for sweet foods and a willingnessto help others, or that holding a warm cup of coffee makes you more likely to judgeothers as having a ‘warm’ personality (10433)

That no forms of evidence are likely to be effective in changing people’s minds on certainissues – in the case of research published in Pediatrics, parents who are anti-vaccinationfor their children. Presentation of evidence can actually make people hold on to theirposition even more firmly (10448)

Human emotions, positive or negative, are felt more intensely under bright lights (10479)

Relying on social groups to solve problems may pre-empt the motivation for independentanalytical thinking. Social networks may give people the answer, but it doesn’t help themunderstand the thinking process underlying the answer (10481)

Explicitly including the option of doing nothing along with a preferred option cantransform people’s likelihood of accomplishing their goals (10501)

Research has found that decision-making accuracy can be improved by postponing theonset of a decision by a mere fraction of a second (10527)

Induced anxiety can carry over to political beliefs – the research found that when anxietylevels are high, voters are more likely to recall negative experiences with immigrants andinterpret ambiguous information in a more negative and threatening manner (10529).


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So What?

Unconscious processes appear to be very strong, including for stimuli that are interpreted asthreatening, stressful or fundamentally challenging (bright lights, anxiety, physiological stimuli,deeply held beliefs).

Nudging or shaping the conditions of decision-making may be an important consideration forpolicy makers in a range of settings. For instance:

to increase rates of childhood vaccination different types of conversations need to occurthan one about evidence

to improve decisions/decision-making ensure appropriate settings (avoiding bright lightsor rushed decisions)

ensuring that chosen options are compared against the option of not doing anything.

To Watch

Item No. 15: Bitcoin (to watch)Is Bitcoin a fad or the foundation for a new means of economic transaction, outside ofgovernment regulated currencies?

Drawing on (database) scan numbers: 10462

What’s new?

Australian digital currency company and Bitcoin mining concern, digitalBTC, has listed on theAustralian Stock Exchange (through a backdoor listing). It is currently developing retailconsumer products around Bitcoin including digital currency mobile applications. The companyraised $9.1m as part of its listing.

So What?

There has been an increasing amount of attention to Bitcoin, including whether it is actually acurrency, the security of Bitcoins, and the legitimacy. Is Bitcoin a passing fad? Or does Bitcoin, incombination with other ‘digital currencies’, point to a possible transformation of finance?

Item No. 16: Changes to come in construction?The way we build may soon be rebuilt.

Drawing on (database) scan numbers: 10445, 10458, 10509

What’s new?

Is the construction industry soon to be disrupted? Three developments point to interestingpossibilities for buildings of the future.


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A Professor at the University of Southern California has built a colossal 3D printer that canbuild a house in 24 hours. It lays concrete according to a set computer pattern and runsalong two parallel tracks (10445)

Large tension fabric structures are being used to store commodities. The processinvolves a mechanical system with large steel tubes used to create the correct tension onthe fabric. Individual panels are attached to every frame to allow interchangeability andproper load pressure. This method offers faster installation and some degree of naturallighting (10458)

A study from the University of Oregon has identified that different architectural designcan lead to distinctive bacterial communities. Building design in the future could work topositively influence the types of bacteria in buildings and therefore contribute to bettermicrobiome (the body’s microorganisms) health (105009).

So What?

Many industries have been experiencing the effects of disruptive innovation – might it be timefor the construction industry as well? Imagine if you can build at that speed, what conventionallymight take a couple of years? In hot markets, you could begin building for conventions – forinstance – based on registrations (unwise perhaps but possible.) Would buildings bedeconstructed and re-assembled for each convention site?

Why now and not previously? People, mainly owners, are fed up with the building process asslow, difficult, and costly, and worst of all, uncertain. If automated construction can answerthose concerns, get over its regulatory and tech hurdles, it might grow quickly. If the [promise isrealised, construction jobs are bound to be reduced significantly with automation, especiallywhen you include robotics and a host of other emerging self-construction methods. Willconstruction jobs be critical to future economic development?


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External relationships / networks in 2014

AJA

SN

AJASN reports to memberorganisations internal scanning

teams/activities

Individual member organisations externalnetworks (e.g. Shaping Tomorrow, Caring

for Our Country QuickQuotes)

Australian Govt CoordinationCommitte on Innovation

(AJASN Working Group reports toAustralian Govt CCI twice yearly through

Department of Industry)

National Government ForesightOrganizations group

(High level international govt networkheaded by Policy Horizons Canada through

Prime Minister and Cabinet in Australia )

Public Sector Foresight Network

(International govt community of practiceheaded by GAO (US))

Association of ProfessionalFuturists

(Professional group for scanning expertiseonly)


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Members in 2014

1. CSIRO Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation

2. DAFF Department of Agriculture

3. DENR (South Australia) Department of Environment and Natural Resources

4. Department of Industry Department of Industry

5. DEPI (Victoria)** Department of Environment and Primary Industries

6. DTPLI (Victoria)** Department of Transport, Planning and Local Infrastructure

7. DSTO Defence Science and Technology Organisation

8. EPA (Victoria) Environmental Protection Agency

9. LANDCARE NZ LandCare New Zealand

10. LINZ Land Information New Zealand

11. Council of RRDC Council of Rural Research and Development Corporations

12. SAFE WORK Safe Work Australia

13. WRC (New Zealand) Waikato Regional Council (New Zealand)

14. UNSW (ADFA) School of Physical, Environmental, and Mathematical Sciences

15. Delaney Foresight Facilitator

** Represents two former Departments that were members in 2013

First Quarter Report 2014 Australasian Joint Agencies Scanning Network

Documents

Transcript of First Quarter Report 2014 Australasian Joint Agencies Scanning Network