FACETs - NOAA National Severe Storms Laboratory
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FACETs Forecasting A Continuum of Environmental Threats Kodi Berry FACETs Program Lead National Severe Storms Laboratory
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Transcript of FACETs - NOAA National Severe Storms Laboratory
FACETsForecasting A Continuum of Environmental ThreatsKodi BerryFACETs Program LeadNational Severe Storms Laboratory
Current Warning System
• Inherently “binary”, in/out• Large false alarm area
Courtesy Patrick Marsh
Current Warning System
• Inherently “binary”, in/out• Large false alarm area• Messy• Designed for teletype era
What is FACETs?
Forecasting A Continuum of Environmental Threats•Modernization of NOAA’s
entire forecast & warning process • Requires integration of
physical & social/behavioral/ economic sciences
FACETs is a Framework
FACETs Goal
To produce a continuous stream of high-resolution probabilistic hazard information (PHI) extending from days to within minutes of an event – for all environmental hazards
FACETs will enable …
• Better individual decision making•More consistent
communication & decision support services•Meaningful quantification of
hazard probabilities
Facet 1: Probabilistic Hazard Information
• Grid-based probabilities• Already exists in some of the NWS product suites• Serves as the foundation for decision support services
Facet 2: Observations & Guidance
• What forecasters use to make decisions• Radar data, satellite data, model output, observations, etc.
Facet 3: The Forecaster
• The person making the forecast & warning decisions• As essential as ever to the entire forecast & warning process• Knowledge, skills, abilities
• New paradigm = new training
Facet 4: Threat Grid Tools
• What forecasters use to create the probabilistic hazard information • Hardware & software
Facet 5: Usable Data
• What the end users see & hear• Graphical, textual, auditory, digital, etc.• Social/behavioral sciences are key
Facet 6: Effective Response
• What the end users do• The physical/social interface• The most important facet• Where social & behavioral science research pays off
Facet 7: Verification
• Evaluating system effectiveness• Measuring more than just forecast skill … measure responses, too!
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Southern Region Western Region
Central Region Eastern Region
Television PhoneNotification
Internet Siren WeatherRadio
BroadcastRadio
Wordof Mouth
SocialMedia
Television PhoneNotification
Internet Siren WeatherRadio
BroadcastRadio
Wordof Mouth
SocialMedia
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Kodi BerryFACETs Program LeadNational Severe Storms [email protected]
