A PowerPoint presentation on

Demographic Transition and It’s Economic Implications

A Case Study of QatarPrepared by :

Abdul Razaq KunnathodiCWAS, SIS- JNU

Submitted to :

Prof. Girijehs PantDean of SIS, JNU

Research hypothesis :Population growth leads to poverty

Demographic transition model observed by American demographer Warren Thompson in 1929 mainly deals with four stages:

During the last 60 years MENA region population increased 3.7 times more than any other major world region.

The total population increased from around 100 million in 1950 to around 380 million in 2000.

Population growth rate in major world regions-1950-2010

MENA countries’ population growth rates in 2009 UAE has the highest population growth rate among MENA countries with 3.69%while THE STATE OF OMAN occupy second with 3.14% growth rate and JORDAN ranked third with 3.04%. (middle east today-2010)

TUNISIA AND IRAN are among the few states that implemented a successful family planning and birth control program several decades ago.

A great shift is seen in the total fertility of MENA region from 7 children per women in 1960 to 3.6 children per women in 2001.

Bahrain, Iran, Lebanon, Tunisia, Qatar and Turkey are among the countries those have a total fertility rate less than 3 children per women.

Iraq, Oman, Palestine, Saudi Arabia and Yemen are among the countries those have a total fertility rate more than 5 children per women.

MENA countries’ population growth rate In 2012

Country name

Pop growth rate %

Year of Estimate

Qatar 5 2012UAE 3 2012

Bahrain 3 2012Yemen 3 2012Iraq 2 2012Syria -1 2012Lebanon 0 2012Israel 2 2012Saudi Arabia 2 2012

Qatar is among the fastest growing populations in MENA region.

In 2005 Qatar recorded with highest population growth rate with 21.79%, in 2006 with 15.10%, in 2007 with 16.81% than previous years’ population.

18.9%,13.13% was recorded in 2008 and 2009 respectively.

in 2012 with 5.78% growth rate Qatar stood as the most populated country within MENA.

A high demographic shift is seen in Qatar population between 2002 to 2012

domestic population increased from 2004 towards 21%(the highest in Qatar's history) and began to decline in subsequent years.

In 2010 it reached 3.71%(the lowest) and in 2012 started growing to 5.78% (the highest among MENA countries).

In census results by Qatar statistical authority, it records a demographic transition from declining to growing .

After the 3.20%in 1997 it shows a growing trend towards 5.19% in 2004 and 14.76% in 2010 (census report of Qatar).

Qatar’s demographic transition in years……..

Qatar’s population growth

Year Population G. rate

2002 676,498 —    2003 713,859 +5.52%2004 744,029 +4.23%2005 906,123 +21.79%2006 1,042,947 +15.10%2007 1,218,250 +16.81%2008 1,448,479 +18.90%2009 1,638,626 +13.13%2010 1,699,435 +3.71%2012 1,832,903 +5.78%

year Population

G.rate.

1986 369,079 —    

1997 522,023 +3.20%

2004 744,029 +5.19%

2010 1,699,435 +14.76%

Year wise population growth rate:

Population growth rate via census:

Effects of population growth…..

Starvation and Malnutrition.

Inadequate fresh water and increased level of air pollution.

Depletion of natural resources.

Low life expectancy.

Elevated crime rate……….

What is the poverty ?????? “Poverty is hunger. Poverty is lack of shelter. Poverty is being sick and not being able to see a doctor. Poverty is not having access to school and not knowing how to read. Poverty is not having a job, is fear for the future, living one day at a time”(the world bank).

As assumed, main indicators of poverty in a society are unemployment, illiteracy and life expectancy rate…..

Unemployment in Qatar…

Qatar is one of the lowest unemployment rate country of the world.

While the unemployment rate in the Arab is the highest in the world, Qatar has an exception.

A clear decrease in unemployment rate is seen from 3.2% of 2006 to 2011 as 0.4%.

It is remarkable that the highest growth in population rate was between 2007-12 and it was not affected Qatarian economy and society

Year: Unemployment rate:

2001 2.7%

2006 3.2%

2007 0.7%

2008 0.4%

2009 0.5%

2010 0.5%

2011 0.4%

Literacy in Qatar…….

Literacy rate of Qatar increased sharply from 2003 onwards….

It holds second position among the MENA countries after Kuwait with 94.5%.

Qatar has free and compulsory education system for all residents from 6-16 years.

Literacy rate includes total population and based on common definition “the ability to read and write at a specified age”

Year: Literacy rate:

1995 79%

2003 82.5%

2004 89%

2010 96.3%

Qatar’s literacy rate from 1995to 2010

Life expectancy at birth within Qatar…..

Qatar is among those countries with high level life expectancy at birth rate…

Life expectancy rate within Qatar increased from 72.37 in 2000 to 78.09 in 2012.

Life expectancy is a measure of overall quality of life in a country.

Life expectancy rate within Qatar……Year: Life ex.

Rate:2000 72.37

2003 73.14

2006 73.9

2009 75.35

2010 75.51

2011 75.7

2012 78.09

Poverty in Qatar…..

Population under poverty line in Qatar recorded as:

A. Population in Poverty: 0.00 % (by phrase base- Qatar facts)

B. Qatar- included in population below poverty line ranks country (by CIA world fact book 2013)

C. population below poverty : NA% (www.theodora.com,Qatar economy 2013)

D. Population below poverty line :NA% (index mundi.com)E. Population below international poverty line of US$1.25

per day 2006-2011: 0% (unicef.org)

Absolutely Qatar is free from poverty ……

Hypothesis test:population growth leads to poverty ???

Hypothesis was proved negatively that population growth in Qatar does not lead to poverty …..

While the Population in Qatar increased three times during ten years, the indicators, unemployment rate fell into 0.4%in 2011, life expectancy and literacy rate increased as that of developed countries..

Year Population

G.rate

1986 369,079 —    1997 522,023 +3.20%2004 744,029 +5.19%2010 1,699,435 +14.76%

Population increases….but no poverty…..

Population under poverty remains

as 0.00%

How Qatar tackles the poverty? Qatar is one of the fastest growing economy of the world.

Petroleum is cornerstone of economy 70% of govt.revenue,60% of GDP, 85% of exports. . Oil has given Qatar a per capita GDP that ranks among the highest in the world.

Qatar is the world's fastest growing economy with a real GDP growth rate of 12% between 2008 and 2012, compared to China who was second with a growth of 9% during the same period.

Gas and oil is the largest component of nominal GDP, accounting for 58% of GDP in 2012,Services sector accounted for 29% and Non-oil Industry formed 13% of overall GDP in 2012.

How Qatar tackles the poverty? Qatar has also become one of the richest countries in the world with a GDP of $171,000 and a growth rate of 9.5%

Qatar's residents are considered to be the wealthiest in the world. Qatar’s GDP per capita (PPP) is the highest in the world at US$88,232.51. By 2015 it's expected to rise to US$116,996.84.

Qatar tackles the poverty with it’s divine blessings of oil and gas boom.

Small geographical size helps Qatar in eradicating the poverty and widening the carrying capacity of the country.

Qatar, The Free Economy …..

GDP and Population….

GDP share, by Sectors…

Oil and Gas…..

Export destinations…

References……… Arab Human Development Report Research Paper Series, United Nations Development Programme, Regional Bureau for Arab States.

The changing population published by united nations environment programme.

demographic transition and its implications on employment and international migration by population division department of economic and social affairs united nations secretariat (ESCWA).

Qatar economy2013, http://www.theodora.com/wfbcurrent/ Qatar/Qatar_economy.html, source: 2013 CIA world fact book and other sources.

Qatar Economy Profile 2013 by indexmundi.com. The Janus Face of the Demographic Transition in the Arab World , The Decisive Role of Nuptiality by Paul Puschmann - Koen Matthijs.

Labor Force Sample Survey 2012 by Qatar statistical authority. Public policy and poverty reduction in Arab region

by Ali Abdel Gadir Ali Shenggen Fan . Census report -2010 by Qatar statistical Authority.

References………

Qatar’s economy: Past, present and future , Ibrahim Ibrahim1, Frank Harrigan2 published by QScience connect, a Qatar academic foundation journal.

Demographics ,economy, of Qatar - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia.htm.

middle east today ,an enlightened discussion of important topics in the middle east by professor emeritus ,hani fakhouri, PhD, university of Michigan, flint.

population trends and challenges in the middle east and north Africa published by population reference bureau(PRB).

Qatar population status 2012 three years after launching the population policy by Qatar statistical authority.

Qatar - analysis – US energy information administration (EIA).htm.Qatar demographics profile 2013 by indexmundi.com.Qatar energy & industry sector sustainability report 2011 by ministry of energy and industries.

the state of Qatar’s population policy by the permanent population committee, the states of Qatar.

education (all levels) profile – Qatar by UNESCO institute for statistics.

THANK YOU