V O L U M E 3 7 N U M B E R 0 7 M A R C H 2 8 - A P R I L 1 0 , 2 0 2 0 I S S N 0 9 7 0 - 1 7 1 0 H T T P S : / / F R O N T L I N E . T H E H I N D U . C O M

A P R I L 1 0 , 2 0 2 0 . F R ONT L I N E 3

POLITICS

Madhya Pradesh: Kamal Nath’s exit 43Chaos in the Congress 44

COMMUNALISM

In Delhi, Muslims face social boycott 47Targeted harassment 48Rebuilding lives 51Yogi Adityanath’s dog-whistle politics 55

WILDLIFE

Breathtaking Botswana 59

LITERATURE

Syed Ahmed Esar: Translating Persian to Urdu 81

ESSAY

How the powerful turn bad 83

CINEMA

Sex workers’ kids who makefilms for YouTube and more 86Interview: Bipuljit Basu 88

WORLD AFFAIRS

Saudi-Russian rivalry and the global oil price slump 93Retaking Idlib 96

COVER STORY

Coronavirus challengeThe deceptively small number of

COVID-19 cases (and deaths) in India

should not drive the nation into com-

placency: it needs to be prepared for a

massive spread of the disease 4

Interview: Dr P. Kuganantham 10

Deficient system 13

Kerala model 16

Proactive Odisha 21

Maharashtra: A state of vigil 22

Economic burden 25

Fighting it the Chinese way 28

Lessons from Italy 31

Corona in Trumpland 35

Surge in Iran 37

The bat connection 40

Interview: Yanis Varoufakis 99

BANKING

Yes Bank collapse: Cover-up of sorts 107

COLUMN

C.P. Chandrasekhar: Oil shock in reverse 91

SCIENCE NOTEBOOK 110

DATACARD

Shining sector 112

BOOKS 74

LETTERS 114

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On the Cover

In New Delhi, a rickshaw driver at work

amid coronavirus fears, on March 14.

COVER DESIGN: T.S. VIJAYANANDAN

PHOTOGRAPH:YAWAR NAZIR/GETTY IMAGES

Air Surcharge:

Colombo - Rs.20.00 and Port Blair - Rs.15.00

COVER STORY

ON DECEMBER 31, 2019, CHINA REPORTED TOthe World Health Organisation (WHO) the detection of anumber of cases of an atypical pneumonia from anunknown cause in the city of Wuhan in Hubei province,ground zero of what has now spread worldwide to be atrue pandemic. Eleven weeks afterwards, this previouslyunknown infection (“Evolving epidemic”, Frontline,February 28), now called COVID-19 (for novelcoronavirus disease 2019), has afflicted over two lakhindividuals and consumed over 8,500 lives across 168countries spanning five continents. China alone accountsfor over 81,000 of these cases, followed by Italy with over

35,000 cases. (As on March 19, the number of cases anddeaths stood at 2,09,839 and 8,778 respectively.)

Scientists are still searching for the exactepidemiological reason for this unprecedented rapidescalation in the number of cases across the globe,particularly in Italy where cases have mounted at analarming rate.

The case log in Italy has jumped from a single-digitfigure to this five-figure mark in just under a monthbeginning February 20, overwhelming the country’sresources so much that doctors and hospitals are havingto make the morally difficult ethical choice of prioritising

HEALTH WORKERS SPRAY DISINFECTANT as aprecautionary measure against COVID-19 in a residential areain Jammu on March 14.C

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VIRUS CHALLENGEThe deceptively small number of COVID-19 cases (and deaths) in India

should not drive the nation into complacency: it needs to be prepared

for a massive spread of the pandemic disease. BY R . R A M A C H A N D R A N

who should be extended intensive care and who shouldbe denied.

Even as the WHO assessed the situation on March 11(when there were 1,18,319 cases and 3,162 deaths spreadover 114 countries) and declared COVID-19, caused by apreviously unknown virus belonging to the coronovirusfamily (which has now been renamed SARS-CoV-2 fromits earlier 2019-nCoV), to be a pandemic, the dailyincrease in the number of cases in China had droppedfrom over 3,000 to one-hundredth that figure in just onemonth. “[M]ore than 90 per cent of cases are in just fourcountries [China, Italy, Iran and South Korea] and twoof those—China and South Korea—have significantlydeclining epidemics,” WHO Director-General Dr TedrosAdhanom Ghebreyesus said while declaring thepandemic. The epicentre of the continually growingglobal epidemic has now moved from China to Europe,with Italy and Spain emerging as the new hotspots.

U N P R E C E D E N T E D M E A S U R E S I N C H I N A

Extraordinary situations call for extraordinary steps. OnJanuary 23, with China accounting for 571 of the 581worldwide cases of COVID-19 (66 per cent from Hubeiprovince alone) and with the epidemic threatening tobecome huge, the Chinese authorities imposedunprecedented measures to curb the spread of the novelviral infection, some of which like those on travelrestrictions could be even viewed as going against the

WHO’s advisories. Not surprisingly, China’s strategiesgave rise to controversy, with some steps even beingtermed draconian.

Movement in and out of ground zero, Wuhan and 15other cities in Hubei province, was blocked. Travel by allmodes was severely curtailed. People in many Chinesecities were advised to stay home. According to The NewYork Times, nearly half of the people of the country wereconfined to their homes. Anthony Fauci, Director of theNational Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases ofthe United States’ National Institutes of Health, noted atthat time that China’s extreme approach could work inthe given context of rapidly escalating spread of infection.

Two months after such extensive lockdowns, some ofwhich are still in place, the daily increase in the numberof cases has now drastically reduced. So the question iswhether these extraordinary but controversial measureswere key to containing the epidemic and what lessonsthey offer to countries that are still on the upward slope ofthe epidemic and which of China’s non-pharmaceuticalinterventions were really instrumental in flattening thecurve and taking the country on a downward slope.

Assuming that each infected person would infect twoothers (a reproduction number, or R0, of 2), early modelsof the disease’s spread that did not take into account suchdrastic measures estimated that the virus would infectnearly 40 per cent of the country’s population. But,according to Adam Kucharski of the London School ofHygiene & Tropical Medicine, who has been quoted inNature online, the R0 had an amazing drop to 1.05between January 16 and 30, a period that included thefirst week of lockdowns.

On February 28, the report of a WHO-China JointMission on COVID-19, which comprised 25 national andinternational experts, made the following observation:“In the face of a previously unknown virus, China hasrolled out perhaps the most ambitious, agile andaggressive disease containment effort in history. Thestrategy that underpinned this containment effort wasinitially a national approach that promoted universaltemperature monitoring, masking, and hand washing.However, as the outbreak evolved, and knowledge wasgained, a science and risk-based approach was taken totailor implementation. Specific containment measureswere adjusted to the provincial, county and evencommunity context, the capacity of the setting, and thenature of novel coronavirus transmission there.”

It went on to say: “The remarkable speed with whichChinese scientists and public health experts isolated thecausative virus, established diagnostic tools, anddetermined key transmission parameters, such as theroute of spread and incubation period, provided the vitalevidence base for China’s strategy, gaining invaluabletime for the response…. China’s bold approach to containthe rapid spread of this new respiratory pathogen has

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changed the course of a rapidly escalating and deadlyepidemic… China is already… working to bolster itseconomy… even as it works to contain the remainingchains of COVID-19 transmission.”

However, questions have been raised inepidemiological circles about the efficacy of suchlockdowns in handling the situation when the likelysecond wave of the epidemic surfaces as restrictions arelifted. It has been argued that such lockdowns preventlarge sections of the population from being exposed tothe virus and building up “herd immunity” within thecommunity. How China phases, both spatially andtemporally, the easing of restrictions in the weeks tocome will be critical.

In this context, however, the report reassuringlysaid: “Appropriately, a science-based, risk-informed andphased approach is being taken, with a clear recognitionand readiness of the need to immediately react to any newCOVID-19 cases or clusters as key elements of thecontainment strategy are lifted [emphasis added].” Themission endorsed the belief of the Chinese authoritiesthat it should soon be possible for the country to managea resurgence in COVID-19 cases if that should occur oncethe restrictions are lifted “using even more tailored andsustainable approaches that are anchored in very rapidcase detection, instant activation of key containmentactivities, direct oversight by top leadership and broadcommunity engagement”.

In an interview to The New York Times, BruceAylward of the WHO, who led this mission, said: “…hundreds of thousands of people in China did not getCOVID-19 because of this aggressive response”.According to him, China’s counter-attack can bereplicated, “but it will require money, imagination andpolitical courage”. Added to this was nationwide people’scommitment. “There was tremendous sense of ‘We’ve gotto help Wuhan’, [and] not ‘Wuhan got us into this’. Otherprovinces sent 40,000 medical workers, many of whomvolunteered,” Aylward said.

But there is criticism that China’s slew of measurescame only after an initial phase of opaqueness about theepidemic and authoritarian dealing with any attempt byindividuals trying to speak out about cases of amysterious infection and the real ground situation,which perhaps led to a delay of two to three weeks intaking steps to contain the growing epidemic. “The delayof China to act is probably responsible for this worldevent,” Nature.com quoted Howard Markel, a publichealth specialist at the University of Michigan in AnnArbor.

A S Y M P T O M A T I C C A S E S D R O V E R A P I D S P R E A D

A study published in Science on March 16 suggests thatundocumented mild and asymptomatic cases of infectionduring the early phase of the epidemic in China beforetravel restrictions and other isolation measures were putin place drove its rapid spread across the country. Thestudy used data on people’s movement between 375Chinese cities between January 10 and 23, focussing

particularly on the time leading up to the Chinese lunarnew year, to simulate how SARS-CoV-2 spread acrossChina and has estimated that these account for 86 percent of all infections.

According to the study, while these undetected caseswere only half as infectious as the known cases, the largenumber of such cases out there became the source forover 80 per cent of the diagnosed infections across thecountry. It is thus the undocumented cases that drove thespread and growth of the outbreak, at least in the initialphase, as per the study. The researchers also found thatthe tide turned following the travel curbs, self-quarantine and physical distancing advisories andwidespread testing implemented on January 23 andthereafter, and documented cases accounted for 65 percent of all infections.

Clearly, asymptomatic transmission has indeedoccurred in China and is presumably occurring in otherparts of the world as well. “Depending on theircontagiousness and numbers, undetected cases canexpose a far greater portion of the population to the virusthan would otherwise occur,” said Jeffrey Shaman, one ofthe authors of the study. “These stealth transmissions willcontinue to present a major challenge to the containmentof the outbreak going forward,” he added, an observationthat should hold good for other affected countries as well.

According to a model simulation carried out byscientists at the University of Southampton, whichNature.com reported, if China had implemented itscontrol measures three weeks earlier than January 23, itcould have prevented 67 per cent of all cases there andwould have cut the global number of cases to 5 per cent ofthe total. A study on the containment measures used in

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296 Chinese cities says that cities that suspended publictransport and banned public gatherings and eventsbefore their first cases showed up had 37 per cent fewercases than cities that did not implement such measuresspeedily.

Several studies on the travel bans suggest that thesedid slow down the disease spread initially but not forlong. According to a study published in Science in earlyMarch, banning travel in and out of Wuhan on January23 delayed its spread to the rest of China only by three tofive days. But it had a larger immediate impact on theinternational spread of the virus; there were 77 per centfewer cases imported from mainland China than wouldhave been expected otherwise. However, this onlydelayed the international spread by a few weeks becauseby mid February importation from other places in China,like Shanghai and Beijing, where the virus had gotestablished, resulted in a rise in the global spread.

According to the study, even blocking 90 per cent oftravel slows down the spread only by a matter of weeks onits own unless other measures are implemented. Ofcourse, many countries across the world, including India,have now imposed severe travel restrictions. Theirsuccess in containing the spread will depend on theattendant national measures, such as widespreaddiagnostic testing, detection and isolation of confirmedcases, effective advisories for self-quarantine insuspected cases, physical distancing among theasymptomatic and avoidance of gathering of people.

So, does China’s aggressive approach, and itsapparent success at stemming the spread of COVID-19,provide any lessons for other countries? Are lockdownsand travel bans the answer? Even as Italy and Spain,confronted with massive surges in the number of casesand deaths—Italy, with over 4,000 deaths, has overtakenChina’s death toll of 3,242—imposed partial or totallockdowns in their different regions, it would be difficultto implement China-like measures given the latter’spolitical system. Elsewhere, adherence to such measurescan only be voluntary. The high fatality rate in Italy (8.3per cent compared with China’s current average of 4 percent) is perhaps attributable to the high fraction ofpeople above 65 years of age, who, as has become clear,are more vulnerable to COVID-19 than younger agegroups. According to another commentary, the familialsetting one obtains in much of Italy, where the veryyoung, who can be asymptomatic carriers of the virus andcan unwittingly transmit the infection, mingle andinteract with the aged could be another contributingfactor to the high mortality rate in Italy.

“Much of the global community,” noted the WHO-China Joint Mission report, “is not yet ready, in mindsetand materially, to implement the measures that havebeen employed to contain COVID-19 in China. These

are the only measures that are currently proven to

interrupt or minimise transmission chains in

humans. Fundamental to these measures is extremelyproactive surveillance to immediately detect cases, veryrapid diagnosis and immediate case isolation, rigorous

tracking and quarantine of close contacts, and anexceptionally high degree of population understandingand acceptance of these measures [emphasis added].”

Actually, the observation made by the report (in boldabove) is somewhat off the mark. The successes in SouthKorea and Singapore, the sizes of these countriesnotwithstanding, offer excellent examples of howmeasures (in italics above) can be effectively andefficiently deployed to contain the outbreak in othersettings. From the peak of 909 cases on February 29,South Korea, a country of 50 million people (very smallcompared with China or India), has brought the numberof daily cases down to about a tenth, and it has done sowithout taking any authoritarian measures or lockingdown towns and cities.

The reason for the Korean success has been theworld’s most expansive and meticulously planned andorganised testing programme, followed by effectiveisolation of confirmed cases and tracing andquarantining their contacts. According towww.ourworldindata.org, which compiles data fromofficial and other published sources, South Korea hastested more than 2,80,000 people, that is, nearly 5,700tests per million population, which is more than anyother country. In comparison, India (as of March 19) hascarried out tests on 14,175 samples (from 13,285individuals), which works out to a meagre 11.7 tests permillion people. This is far fewer than what many otherneighbouring countries, such as Thailand (about 120/million) and Vietnam (40/million), have managed toachieve.

This suggests that the number of confirmed cases inSouth Korea is closer to the total number of cases than inother countries, notes the website. South Korea’sexperience shows that diagnostic capacity at scale, caseisolation and contact tracing are key to epidemic control.After SARS-CoV-2 emerged in China, South Korearamped up its manufacturing capacity quickly incollaboration with manufacturers after the first kit wasapproved on February 7. A similar strategy has beenadopted by Singapore too, which has been in a state ofadvanced readiness, including availability of hospitals,beds and adequate intensive care and quarantinefacilities, so that the situation does not becomeunmanageable at any point of time.

T H E I N D I A N S I T U A T I O N

The Indian situation, with just 256 cases (and fourdeaths) as per the Union Health Ministry data of March21, might seem comforting, but as epidemiologists andhealth experts have pointed out, this could be a bigillusion arising out of the abysmally low level ofdiagnostic testing based as it is on some minimalistcriteria of testing individuals only if they developCOVID-19’s classic symptoms even if they have beenidentified by contact tracing or had a history of travel tocountries with the epidemic and are, therefore, potentialcarriers of the virus even though currently asymptomatic.Increasingly, studies and modelling efforts by scientists

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point to a much greater role played by asymptomaticcarriers of the virus in the spread of the epidemic aroundthe world.

Ramanan Laxminarayan of the U.S.-based Centre forDisease Dynamics, Economics & Policy said in a piece hewrote for The Hindu: “Testing is the most importantthing we could be doing right now…. We need to identifycoronavirus-infected patients in a timely manner inorder to increase our chance of preventing secondaryinfections. There is no shame in admitting that we havefar more cases than what we have detected so far…. Ifwidespread testing were to commence in India, thenumber of confirmed cases would likely climb to thethousands very quickly.”

“If the projections from Europe,” he wrote, “areapplicable in India… the prevalence rate would beupwards of 20 per cent.” This amounts “to about 200-300 million cases of COVID-19 infections and about fourand eight million severe cases of the kind that areflooding hospitals in Italy and Spain at the moment”. Healso warned that the infrastructure of the country’shealth care system, such as the number of intensive careunit beds and ventilators, was inadequate.

T. Sundararaman, former Director of the NationalHealth Systems Resource Centre, New Delhi, madesimilar observations in an interview to HuffPost Indiarecently. The narrow criteria for testing make it more orless mandatory to test only those who walk in feelingunwell or feverish. “It is a self-fulfilling prophecy. You areactually not being able to detect whether communityspread is happening or not. There is no reason why India

will not have community spread.” According to him,instead of the current 61 testing centres, there should atleast be 10 times that number; there should be at leastone testing centre for each district. “[It] is true that youcannot test every fever. But any fever with respiratorysymptoms suggestive of early pneumonia, shortness ofbreath, should be tested. You should not wait for acontact relationship. You should be offering the testmuch more widely now,” he said.

So, the illusory small number of COVID-19 cases(and deaths) in India, and the comforting statistic thatthere were a lower number of cases and deaths in thecountry in the SARS-CoV-1 and H1N1 epidemicscompared with other parts of the world, should not drivethe nation into complacency. Historical comparisons aregood when the arguments are compelling. In the presentcase, they are not. SARS-CoV-2, with its much highercontagiousness and infectivity even from asymptomaticcarriers, seems to be a different beast compared withother coronaviruses. Moreover, scientists are yet to fullyunravel the science of the virus and the disease.

The country, therefore, needs to be prepared for arapidly mounting number of cases to the tens ofthousands and more, which does not seem to be the casefrom available evidence. As Laxminarayan wrote: “This ishow epidemics move and the real numbers should spurus into positive action.” The prognosis for India by theseexperts holds an important message for the healthauthorities. One hopes that someone is listening, and it ishigh time that health measures besides shutdowns andtravel restrictions are put in place. m

A WOMAN WATCHES from a waiting area as a nurse administers a novel coronavirus test at a testing booth outside YangjiHospital in Seoul on March 17. The hospital has introduced phone booth-style coronavirus testing facilities that avoidmedical staff having to touch patients directly.

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COVER STORY

DURING THE CHOLERA EPIDEMIC IN TAMILNadu in 1992-93, Dr P. Kuganantham, then Director ofthe Communicable Diseases Hospital in Tondiarpet,Chennai, with the backing of officials of Chennai Corpor-ation, made suggestions to the government of TamilNadu that seemed to be draconian. Most of these sugges-tions—cutting down on the length of hospital stays byusing a never-before-tested protocol, insisting on in-creasing the chlorine content in drink-ing water to incredibly high levels, andmaking sure that everyone afflicted wasisolated and moved to a treatment facil-ity—worked to ensure that the numberof deaths from the affliction was keptlow. He went on to become one of themost proactive Health Officers of Chen-nai Corporation and is a sought-afterpublic health expert in India today. Ex-cerpts from an interview he gave Front-line on the coronavirus infection and itsimplications:

What has been India’s record in controlling infectiousdiseases since many such diseases are endemic to thecountry?

We have had many epidemic outbreaks in India:small pox in the 1920s and the 1960s, plague and swineflu [Spanish flu] in 1918. [At one time] there used to becholera outbreaks almost once in five years. More thanfive lakh people died in the Madras presidency in theswine flu outbreak [in 1918]. The last major epidemicwhich spread to many parts of the world was the choleraoutbreak of 1992-93. The strains of this cholera outbreakwere new and named O-139. The first strain was dis-covered in Chennai by my team, and then we had todevelop a new protocol for the management of cases. Wetreated at least 75,000 cases in the Communicable Dis-eases Hospital.

In the case of H1N1 [the swine flu pandemic in2009-10], we identified all the cases. The epicentre was

Mexico. From there it spread to California, Hong Kong,Indonesia, and so on. We decided that all those who had atravel history to these places needed to be tested. Weintercepted all passengers from these destinations andtook those who had symptoms to the CommunicableDiseases Hospital in Tondiarpet. Over a period of time,we treated about 3,500 patients. All the patients werekept under observation during the incubation period of

between 7 and 14 days. The source ofinfection is from the throat, nostrils.The infection gets into the throat ornostrils and gets into the lungs andmultiplies there.

What we thought was this: a pa-tient who has sufficient exposureneeds to be admitted in the hospitaland given a mouthwash. This is donein a slightly peculiar manner. Youraise your head to the roof and keepthe salt water or the antiseptic solu-tion in touch with the throat for a

minute. The virus is killed because of this action. This isactually like washing the throat frequently to remove thevirus, which will be a source of infection to the neigh-bourhood. Through the period of the epidemic, we man-aged to ensure that no patient died.

There are also epidemics that occur after a disaster. Ihave seen such epidemics after the Gujarat earthquake,after the tsunami [in Nagapattinam], and in Odisha[after the supercyclone in 1999]. In all these places, wehave had a small outbreak of diseases after the event.

What is the way to contain, mitigate and manage thespread of an epidemic?

The best public health approach to control an epi-demic starts with identifying all cases in a given geo-graphy. They should then be treated or isolated. Thereshould be no delay in treatment. There is no time to sitaround and discuss in an epidemic setting. In the case ofH1N1, apart from the throat wash and checks for lung

‘We cannot be obsessedwith hiding numbers’

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infection, we made sure that the virus didn’t cause in-flammation of the tissue. This is critical because the viruslodges itself in the cell and infects it. If this happens, thenopportunistic infections will affect the patient. We gavethem prophylactic vitamin A, some antibiotics like amox-icillin. With this we managed to isolate the virus. Formucus secretions to be removed, we gave them muco-lytes, and bronchodilators for five days.

Along with effective treatment, which is not [to be]delayed for any reason, it is important to undertake amassive awareness drive in society. At a clinical level, alleffort should be simultaneously made to identify theorganism, and a protocol for management and treatmentshould be developed. There should be no panic, and thereshould be no political obsession about hiding the numberof cases. If you start hiding them, the cases, which are likean iceberg in the community, will flare up. People will dieas a result.

I see the swine flu epidemic of 2009 and this epi-demic (COVID-19) in the same way. Both of these are, insome ways, like common cold infection. Even a commoncold can sometimes become very virulent because of themutation of the virus. For example, a swine flu virus isfound in wild animals, pigs, birds and human beings. Theviruses in these different hosts sometimes get togetherand mutate and develop as a new virus. This process istermed a novel virus. This is called the reassortment of avirus. H1N1 was called a novel virus. Coronavirus is alsobeing called a novel virus.

‘ D I S E A S E O U T B R E A K S O F T E N H A P P E N I N

T H E F O R E S T ’

What is the source of these frequent virus epidemics inthe global context?

One thing we forget is that disease outbreaks oftenhappen in the forest. When there is a human invasioninto the forest and a disturbance of the ecosystem in theforest, the infection will end up in the places wherehuman beings are settled. This was evident in the plaguein Surat in 1996. In Surat, wild rats in the forest moved tothe human habitation areas because of some disturbancein the forest. These rats infected domestic rats in thetown. This was the beginning of the plague.

When the British ruled India, we had surveillanceoutposts in major forests. For instance, in the Kyasanurforest near Mysore there was a surveillance centre. This isthe reason why a vector control centre was set up inHosur. Unfortunately, all the surveillance centres werelater closed by the Indian government.

What have you learnt about the coronavirus and theCOVID-19 infection?

Coronavirus is a weak virus. It’s a novel virus and itsbehaviour cannot be quantified. Here, planners have tounderstand that it affects a larger population whenpeople live in densely populated settings. In spite ofinfecting a large number of people, the deaths are low.This is exactly what we saw in H1N1: the infection ratewas very high but the number of deaths was low.

It’s also not necessary that all those infected sufferfrom the disease. There is a parallel with TB here. In mostthickly populated cities in India, almost everyone har-bours TB infection in their lungs. But they do not sufferfrom TB disease. They are infected, but it is not flaring upas a disease. It will flare up only when their immunitycomes down.

In any case, the question now is this: Has this novelvirus invaded our population significantly? From newsreports, we know that this is prevalent in many placesmainly because of the travel history of individuals. Butthis could be stopped if all these people are identified andisolated. For that, we need to insist that people are tested.At least, this should be done for those who have come incontact with a COVID-19 patient, who have a travelhistory, who are in an immunocompromised state andwho have exhibited symptoms.

Testing the whole population is difficult because thiscan lead to panic and, also, we may not have enoughfacilities. The private sector should be part of this effort tocontrol the spread of the disease. Restricting testing to afew places is not right. You have to rope in the privatesector. Only then the asymptomatic cases can be identi-fied and treated. Otherwise, though these people will notsuffer any problem, they will pass on the infection toothers.

Unfortunately, our governments are taking a verystrange decision of restrictions in testing. If a personwants to get tested today, there is no provision for it.Many are telling people that if they want to get tested,they need to get admitted in the hospital, etc., just todiscourage them.

Are private hospitals equipped to treat such patients? Infact, are government hospitals equipped to handle thesepatients?

Many private hospitals do not have infectious dis-eases wards. In the past, infectious diseases hospitalswere located outside cities. Now, in the Western world,this treatment is highly technical, and they maintain theisolation wards in a general hospital itself but maintainthe room in which an infectious patient is kept undernegative pressure. There are not many hospitals in theprivate sector with negative pressure rooms.

How do you view the restrictions imposed in China on itscitizens following the outbreak of COVID-19?

Never in the history of public health has any countrydone what China is doing now. It is difficult to imaginethe same happening in India, the U.S. and in most otherplaces. If such a disease had occurred in any of thesecountries [before it occurred in China], we would haveseen devastation similar to that seen along the path of ahurricane.

Without bothering about criticism from outside, theywent about their job of isolating, tracking travel history ofpeople, creating awareness in schools, employment ofdrones, building hospitals in just a few days, and impos-ing movement restrictions. It worked. With our limited

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experience with this pandemic, we can see that this ap-proach has saved lives.

In the event of an epidemic, does Chennai have theadequate capacity to treat everyone who may needtreatment?

For a city the size of Chennai, we need about 5,000beds. We don’t have that many beds for infectious dis-eases. We have general beds which will amount to muchmore than that number. We have only one Communic-able Diseases Hospital, which has 500 beds. All the otherhospitals should have isolation wards. If you want tohandle such pandemics in the future, there is no way butto set up a 5,000-bed hospital outside the city.

What are the lessons that were learnt from the handlingof the cholera epidemic in 1992-93?

When cholera broke out in 1992-93, the Communic-able Diseases Hospital had only 300 beds, and we addedsheds across the entire campus to handle the additionalpatients coming in. We created about 1,500 beds in all.

Daily admission was over 1,500 patients. Because ofthe epidemic, government hospitals refused to take pa-tients. That is the time I was forced to think: should Ikeep the inpatients for a week as was conventional? If Ikeep a patient for a week and if I have daily admissions of1,500, just imagine what will be the bed load. We em-ployed about 700 professionals, including about 150 doc-tors and 300 nurses. It was a war.

So I was forced to take a decision to cut down hospitalstay from one week to 48 hours. This was our researchpoint based on data and the clinical symptoms. As aresult of this research we identified a new strain of chol-era, and it was named the Madras strain. The treatmentwe simplified using antibiotics like 300 mg of doxycyc-line and five pints of ringer’s lactate, and the patientswere much better in 48 hours. Every authority, includingthe WHO [World Health Organisation], was astonishedat our management. The management was based on ourunderstanding of the bacterium, how it manifests, how itspreads and how it can be controlled.

For a cholera infection, which can be cured and thecure rate was 100 per cent, we had so many facilities. Justimagine the scale of what you require now for a pandemicthat is capable of spreading everywhere, and the treat-ment is highly problematic because a patient’s cure ratedepends on his or her health status. Fortunately, wehaven’t yet seen a massive upswing in infections.

What went right? How did those in authority at ChennaiCorporation and the Tamil Nadu government react?

The Chennai Corporation gave me the full freedom tofunction: recruit, bring patients to the hospital in a fleetof over 100 ambulances and implement innovative treat-ment protocols that we developed for that particularsituation. Remember that the cases were coming in fromall over: from neighbouring States and even farawaydistricts.

It was fortunate for this city that Mr R. Poor-

nalingam, IAS, was the special officer; he quickly under-stood the gravity of the situation. The then ChiefMinister, Jayalalithaa, too supported our efforts becausewe treated two Ministers and about half a dozen IASofficers. One of the things I forced the government to acton was to increase the level of chlorine in the drinkingwater system. This was a big struggle because there was amajor difference of opinion on my suggestion to increasethe chlorine content. But since I had an army of staffhelping me, we mapped the chlorine content in water inpublic fountains in all the wards of the Corporation. Thecorrelation was hard to miss: wherever the chlorine levelwas nil, we saw a spike in cholera cases.

There were also many press articles at that timesupporting my view or the contrary view. At a meetingwith the Chief Secretary, I showed him historical evid-ence of how cholera was controlled and suggested we dothe same here, that the culprit was water. Deaths in citiesoutside Chennai, such as Madurai, were increasing. TheChief Secretary empowered me to take a decision on thechlorine content in the water supply system.

My instruction was to increase the chlorine content to10 ppm. The WHO’s recommendation is 0.2 ppm. Whenwe checked in some of the tail-end points, we found thateven after an increase of 10 ppm at the waterworks points,the tail-end areas had barely 0.2 ppm. This is because a lotof the pipelines were laid many decades ago. In just a weekafter we increased the chlorine level, the cases in the worstaffected areas came down from 1,000 to 50-60.

‘ H A P H A Z A R D S T A T E M E N T S ’

After so many epidemics, does India have a nationalapproach to such diseases?

There is an Epidemic Task Force in all local bodies.All States have a State Epidemic Task Force. All theexperts and administrators discuss and decide on ap-proaches to an epidemic. But what is happening now ishaphazard statements from different quarters. They haveto develop an agenda for it. They have to plan a strategicroad map to handle the situation.

The U.S. has an organisation called the EpidemicIntelligence Services [EIS]. They are the first people togather information on any disease outbreak anywhere.The same system was copied and started in Delhi in 2012.It is responsible for monitoring the country.

After the Surat plague outbreak here, the U.S. sentmassive shipments of PPE [personal protective equip-ment] to India. At that time, India had not even declaredthat there was an outbreak of plague. Also, there is aNational Institute of Communicable Diseases in NewDelhi [now called National Centre for Disease Control].It too has not been talking. The disease surveillance unitsacross the country should function properly. There arevacancies across States, from what I hear. These unitshave to monitor even the smallest outbreak of disease.They should conduct epidemiological research on that.They should identify the hotspots and stamp it out assoon as possible. m

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COVER STORY

ONE OF THE THINGS THAT IS BEING LAUDEDin India is that in a population of 1.3 billion, the numberof reported coronavirus cases has been very low. Thenational address of Prime Minister Narendra Modi onMarch 19 asking people to observe a self-imposed curfewon March 22, to clap and ring bells from their balconiesto appreciate the work of doctors and health workers, andto not hoard, do not give an indication of the state ofhealth preparedness across the country.

While the efforts of the government in issuing traveladvisories, installing screening mechanisms at airportsand advising people to take precautions have been ac-knowledged, public health experts have cautioned aboutgross under-reporting of infected cases and emphasisedthat the total number of tests conducted by the IndianCouncil of Medical Research (ICMR) based on a smallsample was not enough to arrive at the conclusion thatcommunity transmission was not occurring.

There also were reports of people diagnosed withCOVID-19 interacting and moving freely in the com-munity. The revised strategy of testing issued on March

21 by the ICMR underscores the approach that cases ofCOVID-19 in India relate only to travel and local trans-mission from “imported cases to their immediate con-tacts”. The notification says that “communitytransmission of the disease has not been documented tillnow. Once community transmission is documented, theabove testing strategy will undergo changes to evolve intostage-appropriate testing strategy.”

The current testing strategy says that all asympto-matic individuals who have undertaken internationaltravel in the last 14 days should stay in home quarantinefor 14 days; that they should be tested only if they becomesymptomatic (fever, cough, difficulty in breathing) andall family members with a confirmed case should behome-quarantined. All symptomatic contacts of laborat-ory-confirmed cases, all symptomatic health-care work-ers, all hospitalised patients with Severe AcuteRespiratory Illness fever (fever, cough and breathless-ness) as well as asymptomatic high-risk contacts of aconfirmed case must be tested between Day 5 and Day 14of coming into contact with a confirmed case. This marks

Deficient systemIndia’s ill-prepared public health system faces its toughest test yet as the

number of coronavirus cases continue to increase, putting pressure on the

government’s limited resources. BY T.K. RAJALAKSHMI

A DOCTOR in aprotective suitoutside anisolation wardfor COVID-19patients at ahospital inHyderabad onMarch 15.M

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a slight shift from its earlier position of not testing allhospitalised patients with severe acute respiratory ill-nesses and fever.

‘ T E S T , T R E A T A N D T R A C E ’

“Countries must isolate, test, treat and trace,” says thelatest message from the World Health Organisation(WHO), a dictum the Indian government does not seemto be following.

These concerns have arisen against the backdrop ofIndia’s poor health care system and abysmally low publichealth expenditures as a percentage of GDP. The rise inthe incidence of COVID-19 cases in the Western econom-ies despite their advanced health systems and services hascaused consternation in India regarding the preparednessof its own health services and systems. The overemphasison self-management, isolation and “physical distancing”,as opposed to ensuring more district-level testing facilitiesand more economic and social support for those who arevulnerable has been criticised. Questions have also beenraised about the effectiveness of the Integrated DiseaseSurveillance Project (IDSP) set up in 2004 in order todetect and respond to epidemic outbreaks.

Yogesh Jain, a public health physician in rural Chhat-tisgarh who has written on the coronavirus outbreak, toldFrontline that absence of evidence does not mean evid-ence of absence. India, he said, was showing fewer casesbecause of restricted testing. “There isn’t a different epi-demiology in India and therefore community transmis-sion is already happening. There should be larger testingcriteria and the data must be shared with the people. TheICMR says it has sentinel sites from which it has pickedup the samples. But even if 10 hospitals are selected andthe cases of pneumonia are investigated, one will get anidea. Just because we are one to two weeks behind theEuropean escalation curve doesn’t mean it won’t happenhere,” he said. The strategy that the government wouldact only if there was community transmission was “non-sense”, he added. The WHO had indicated indirectly thatsome countries needed to move faster.

A shortage of testing kits was cited as a reason by anICMR official for the low rate of testing, but public healthexperts felt that it should have been addressed muchearlier. There are an estimated 168 flu testing sites underthe IDSP. In fact, given the frequent outbreak of viralagents, the Department of Health Research set up theViral Research and Diagnostic Labs under the aegis ofthe ICMR to identify and diagnose early viral infectionsof importance. There are around 85 such laboratoriesfunctioning, but whether they are testing for COVID-19is not known. “If there is an air of secrecy, people willcome to all kinds of conclusions,” said Jain.

China was successful in the lockdown of Wuhan, butto emulate physical distancing in India is not practicalgiven the high population concentration and diversifieddemography. “Even when people were diagnosed as pos-itive, they didn’t care and mingled in the community,”said Jain. The Chinese government ensured that every-one in Wuhan was taken care of in their homes so that

they did not have to step out. At least 10 per cent of thosediagnosed with COVID-19 would need to be put in anICU and on ventilator as well, he said. But the shortage ofventilators and fully equipped ICUs was a hugechallenge.

In Chhattisgarh, there were 156 ventilators for a pop-ulation of 32 million, that is, one ventilator for every twolakh people, said Jain. “Even if the prevalence is one percent, it means a thousand persons will get infected and ahundred will need ventilator support but only one personwill get it,” he said.

In recent years, global health agencies had shiftedfocus to non-communicable diseases and lifestyle-re-lated diseases such as cancer, diabetes and chronic ob-structive pulmonary disease. The re-emergence ofcommunicable diseases in the form of epidemic viraloutbreaks poses a new challenge altogether. According tothe Department of Health Research, India had witnessedsuch outbreaks and faced threats of potential infiltrationof Nipah (2001, 2007 and 2018), Avian Influenza H5N1(2006), Chikungunya (2006), pandemic influenza(2009), Ebola (2013) and Zika (2016).

The government has set many targets for itself, in-cluding increasing the number of paramedics and doc-tors as per the Indian Public Health Standards (IPHS)norms in high-priority districts by 2020 and decreasingthe proportion of households facing catastrophic healthexpenditure by 25 per cent from the current levels by2025. The government also plans to increase its healthexpenditure as a proportion of GDP from the present 1.15per cent to 2.5 per cent by 2025.

The United States and the United Kingdom havebeen facing shortages of ventilators and other ICU facilit-ies in the context of the COVID-19 outbreak. These arealso the countries which have a high level of universalhealth coverage in terms of essential services. PrimeMinister Boris Johnson of the U.K. told the media thatthe government would not track and trace the contacts ofsuspected cases and that only those admitted to hospitalswould be tested. But as the numbers burgeoned inEurope, especially Italy, he changed his position.

C H A L L E N G E O F C O M M U N I C A B L E D I S E A S E S

In India, according to the National Health Profile 2019,the average population served by government allopathicdoctors was 10,926 persons per doctor. There werearound 8.6 lakh auxiliary nurse midwives and some 20lakh registered nurses. For a population of 1.3 billion,there are only 25,778 government hospitals and 7,13,986beds. The budget for managing epidemics and naturalcalamities had never exceeded Rs.100 crore in any year.In fact, the actual expenditure ranged between Rs.50crore and Rs.60 crore from 2016 onwards. The budgetfor health sector disaster preparedness and manage-ment, including emergency medical relief and emer-gency medical services was halved in the BudgetEstimates (BE) of 2018-19 from what was allocated in2016-17 (Rs.30 crore in BE 2016-17; Rs 16.85 crore in BE2018-19).

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According to Census 2011, only 8.3 per cent of thepopulation is above 60 years, while 64.7 per cent is in the15-59 age group. The assumption that the virus wouldattack only the elderly is not true given that in the U.S.,nearly 30 per cent of the cases was in the 20-44 agegroup, though deaths have been in the older age cohorts.The government might be taking solace from the fact thatthe disease burden for communicable, maternal, neo-natal and nutritional diseases dropped from 61 per centto 33 per cent between 1990 and 2016, and for non-communicable diseases (NCDs) it grew from 30 per centto 55 per cent. But the epidemiological variationsbetween States ranged from 48 per cent to 75 per cent forNCDs and 14 per cent to 43 per cent for infectious andassociated diseases.

But according to the National Health Profile 2019,acute respiratory infections accounted for nearly 69.47per cent of the total morbidity because of communicablediseases. Mortality because of pneumonia and acute res-piratory infections accounted for 57.86 per cent of allmortality because of communicable diseases. The thirdhighest cause of mortality was acute diarrhoea, whichaccounted for 10.5 per cent. There were 9.2 lakh cases ofpneumonia alone in 2018, compared with 7.5 lakh casesthe previous year. Similarly, viral hepatitis, viral men-ingitis, swine flu, acute diarrhoea and acute respiratoryinfections went up in 2018 over the previous year.

C U R F E W A S C U R E

Yet, in India, denial that there might be more cases thanwhat has been reported continues to be the positiondespite public health experts cautioning the governmentnot to be complacent. The government seems to be fol-lowing the dictum that “prevention is better than cure” ata time when the virus may have already entered thecommunity. The emphasis on prevention and the onusfor keeping the contagion at bay has been disproportion-ately placed solely on people with the understanding thatfollowing certain behavioural and sanitation norms, suchas washing hands regularly with soap, using alcohol-based sanitisers and avoiding physical contact, can pre-vent the spread.

In the Indian context, it is next to impossible toquarantine huge sections of the population, especiallythose who have to commute for wage work. In Wuhan,the Chinese authorities ensured that people receivedfood at their doorstep and were thereby successful incontaining the spread by way of physical and social con-tact. No such effort is on in India.

The repeated exhortation by the Union Health Min-istry to citizens to wash their hands with soap and usesanitisers needs to be seen in the context of the overallaccess to clean water for drinking and bathing and othersanitation needs. Only 43.5 per cent of households in thecountry according to the National Health Profile 2018,had access to tap water, of which only in 32 per cent thewater was from a treated source. Some 33.5 per cent ofhouseholds relied on hand pumps, while 11 per centdepended on well water, of which 9 per cent used un-covered wells. Some 8.5 per cent depended on tube wells.Only 46.6 per cent of households had access to drinkingwater within their premises, while 35.8 per cent had itnear the premises and 17.6 per cent away from thepremises.

There was a wide variation observed between theStates as well. While 77.7 per cent of households in Keralahad clean drinking water within the premises, the corres-ponding figure for Chhattisgarh was only 26.5 per cent.There were 10,379 rural habitations without safe drink-ing water and with a problem of excess fluoride levels.Some 16,279 habitations had the presence of arsenic intheir drinking water supply. Latrine facilities werepresent only in 46.9 per cent of households, while 53.1per cent did not have latrines inside the premises. Some48.9 per cent of households had no drainage; only 42 percent had bathrooms; 55.8 per cent had kitchens, while31.5 per cent had no separate kitchen.

Therefore, with the limited guarantee of clean run-ning water, frequent “hand washing” with soap or sanit-iser is a luxury in the Indian context. With the scare ofCOVID-19 going up, the sale of face masks and sanitisersshot up among middle and upper middle-class sectionsand retailers had begun charging exorbitant amountsfrom panic-stricken consumers. Fears of a lockdownprompted several people to hoard food and medicines,leading to acute shortages in stores. The prices of veget-ables, too, soared.

On March 21, the Ministry of Consumer Affairs, Foodand Public Distribution, belatedly realising that somepeople were exploiting the crisis, issued an order underthe Essential Commodities Act, 1950, regulating theprice of masks and sanitisers. Retailers, the order said,would not be allowed to charge more than Rs.8 and Rs.10for the two specified categories of masks and Rs.100 for a200 ml bottle of sanitiser. This notification will be effect-ive until June 30. Yet, even at the reduced cost, sanitiseris not affordable for many. There has been no commit-ment from the government to provide these things freefor those who cannot afford to buy them.

With each passing day, the number of COVID-19cases in India is going up. A spurt is predicted in thecoming weeks, for which the Indian health care system, ahighly privatised one, does not seem to be prepared. Theoutbreak is an opportunity for the government to take ahard look at public health, reduce its dependence on theprivate sector and strengthen and reinvest in the publicsector pharmaceutical industry in the interests of thepeople. m

A spurt is predicted, for which

the Indian health care system,

a highly privatised one, does

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COVER STORY

“NOT TESTING ALONE. NOT CONTACT TRACINGalone. Not quarantine alone. Not physical distancingalone. Do it all. Find, isolate, test and treat every case, tobreak the chains of transmission…. Do not let this fireburn.”

If this recent statement of World Health Organisa-tion (WHO) Director General Tedros AdhanomGhebreyesus offers the best prescription for dealing withCOVID-19 as of now, a State in India that has attractedeveryone’s admiration with its quick and effective re-sponse to the spread of coronavirus is Kerala.

Right from early February, when three students ofWuhan University in China, then the centre of the out-break, returned to their homes in the State and werepromptly identified, tested and found to be the firstknown positive cases for coronavirus infection in India,Kerala increased its preparedness, readiness and re-sponse to the threat of the pandemic.

It effectively utilised the most valuable resources atits disposal: time, the advance notice it got after the firsttrickle of people living abroad began to return in the wakeof the pandemic threat; the well-known strengths of itsrefurbished healthcare system; and the out-of-the-blueyet hands-on experience it had gained in the past fewyears while handling two outbreaks of the deadly Nipahvirus (“Managing Nipah”, Frontline, June 22, 2018).

With early detection and prompt containment effortsfocussing on review of each case, tracing everyone whohad contact with the infected person, putting them onobservation, setting up emergency quarantine and hos-pital facilities, taking steps to ensure that people whoreturned from overseas, including tourists who showed

Kerala modelKerala’s social investments in rural health care, universal education,

decentralisation of powers and resources and women empowerment are

standing it in good stead as it leads the fight against the coronavirus.

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KERALA HEALTH MINISTER K.K. Shailaja promotes theuse of sanitisers as part of the “Break the Chain” campaignlaunched by the State government.

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symptoms of the disease and their contacts, stayed underquarantine at home, hospitals or hotels, Kerala hasoffered a vigilant, well-informed response to the spreadof COVID-19 and its consequences in the State.

These steps, based on WHO guidelines, may appearcommonplace as every other State also soon followedthem, but Kerala has demonstrated a remarkable differ-ence once again at the time of a crisis in the way itsgovernment went about implementing them, stirring upthe official machinery and ensuring the participation ofevery section of society.

Special isolation facilities and treatment protocolsbased on the Ebola model that were established followingthe Nipah outbreak were readied almost as a reflex reac-tion. A back-to-the-basics approach for infection controlwas put in place soon after the first positive case wasidentified. The government made it clear through de-tailed daily media briefings by Chief Minister PinarayiVijayan and Health Minister K.K. Shailaja that the tasksinvolved, especially in contact tracing, creating aware-ness about the need for quarantining and in traininghealthcare and hospital personnel, were more difficultthis time and sought the cooperation of the people insurveillance and containment efforts.

The entire State would wait for these daily briefings,remarkable for the competent government response tothe emerging crisis, the confidence and clarity with whicheach day’s events were analysed and the convincing man-ner in which sensitive government decisions were ex-plained and their rationale conveyed to the people at

regular intervals. Equally popular were the social mediaaccounts of the Chief Minister, which proved to be aremarkable compilation of updates on government stepsto tackle this dangerous pandemic, the enormity of thetasks involved and advice and appeals to the people.

As a result, within the shortest possible time perhaps,the whole of Kerala was made aware and vigilant aboutthe nature of the virus and its spread, the fact that itsinfectious period, transmissibility, clinical severity andextent of community spread were yet to be fully under-stood and about the difficult tasks involved if the Statewas to survive such a contagion.

The State dealt with the first stage of the crisis, suc-cessfully containing a spread of the disease by quarantin-ing the students from Wuhan who had tested positiveand providing them hospital care until they recoveredfully. But soon, a family of three with a travel history toItaly arrived at the Kochi airport, disregarded officialguidelines to report to the authorities about any visit tocoronavirus-affected countries, and chose to roam aboutin their native village and surrounding areas of Path-anamthitta district.

They later tested positive for the virus, after a relativereported sick at a local hospital and told the authorities oftheir arrival. The government had to force them to stayunder quarantine. To its horror, Kerala realised then thatit had seen the first small chain of transmission of thevirus within its territory, even as the biggest annualreligious festival in the State—a congregation of over 30lakh women devotees spread over 10 days at the AttukalBhagavathy temple—was taking place in the Statecapital.

But in its wisdom, the government let the event runits course with all its attendant risks, issuing merely

TRAINING FOR ambulance drivers is part of a specialdrive by the Kerala government to meet the needs of theState during the COVID-19 crisis.

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health advisories on the dangers involved for the parti-cipants and cautioning those with symptoms from takingpart in the festival. This was perhaps the only flaw in themeasures taken by the State ever since the first positivecases were identified.

On March 19, as the number of COVID-19 cases inIndia crossed 198, in Kerala, 25 people had tested posit-ive for the virus (after the first phase involving the threestudents from Wuhan who later recovered) and 31,173persons were under surveillance. Among them, 237 werein isolation in hospitals and the rest were on home quar-antine. The State saw an increase in suspected cases,especially after a steady flow of people began from vari-ous affected countries. On a single day, on March 19, forexample, as many as 6,103 people (7,861 the previousday) were additionally put under surveillance.

The State was surely learning that many of the stepsthe government had announced may only be successfulin the early stages of the outbreak, that the logistics ofcontinuing the containment efforts further would bechallenging, and that individual responses to govern-ment directives will be a key factor in preventing thesituation from turning bad.

There were several reports of people violating homequarantine norms and trying to hide their travel historyfrom the authorities. In a prominent instance, the func-tioning of the prestigious Sree Chitra Tirunal Institutefor Medical Sciences and Technology inThiruvananthapuram was badly affected when one of itsdoctors who had recently visited Spain came back onMarch 1 and attended duty for over 10 days. After this, ondisclosure of his travel history, he tested positive for thevirus. Several senior doctors and an unknown number ofother hospital staff had reportedly interacted with thesaid doctor and were hence forced to go on home quar-antine in order to avoid risk to patients, a large majorityof them needing critical care.

In another incident, a patient who was admitted tothe Thiruvananthapuram Medical College with injuriessustained in a road accident was provided treatment.Only later did he disclose that he was on home quarant-ine at Kollam but had violated directions to go on a bikeride when he met with the accident, forcing 16 doctorsand nine hospital staff to go on quarantine themselves,affecting hospital work at a critical juncture when re-sources were stretched to the limit.

However, such instances were the exceptions and donot take the sheen away from the outstanding way thegovernment went about containing COVID-19 and pre-paring the State for the uncertain period that lay ahead.

A reading of the prominent government initiativesduring the month after the first three positive cases wereidentified would perhaps be instructive.

Kerala was perhaps the first State to announce theimmediate closure of schools, including tuition centresand madrasas, cinemas and other establishments untilthe end of March; promote the importance of physicaldistancing and personal hygiene; gauge the need forquickly setting up more (but still not enough) testingfacilities; deliver mid-day meals to schoolchildren attheir homes until schools reopened; introduce quarant-ine facilities in all prisons in the State; utilise the servicesof prisoners to help meet the acute shortage of facemasks; encourage large-scale production of sanitisers

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locally; involve local body members in surveillance andmonitoring of those in quarantine; utilise communityorganisations to set up makeshift sanitiser kiosks atstreet corners; take steps to improve the quality andavailability of broadband Internet to help those workingfrom home; provide a dedicated app, “GoK Direct”, totackle fake news and false social media campaigns withup-to-the-minute information on government decisionsand travel guidelines; launch an interactive web portal toprovide all currently available scientific and general in-formation about COVID-19 to the public and health-carepersonnel; rope in religious and community leaders tocurtail large gatherings during prayers, rituals and fest-ivals in places of worship; launch door-to-door monitor-ing of those kept under home quarantine; providetraining to those who come in regular contact with thepublic, such as ambulance drivers and auto and taxidrivers; undertake the hard task of tracking individualcontact patterns and preparing flow charts of the timeand places of visit of all those who tested positive forcoronavirus and give them wide publicity as a warning tothose who could be at risk of infection; launch a popularand effective “Break the Chain” campaign, involving,among others, Ministers and cine artistes on televisionand social media and elsewhere, to create awarenessabout physical distancing and frequent hand washing;and take extra care to ensure that people who testedpositive were not stigmatised but blame was put squarelyon irresponsible behaviour.

Kerala also declared an economic stimulus packageto address the hardship in society that has followed thecoronavirus outbreak, the first State to do so. On March19, the Chief Minister announced a Rs.20,000-croreeconomic package for the purpose, of which Rs.500 crorewas exclusively for the health sector (besides other assist-ance), Rs.2,000 crore to provide loans through Kudum-bashree, the vast network of women’s self-help groups,and Rs.1,000 crore to provide jobs through rural employ-ment guarantee programmes.

The government also announced free ration for amonth for all families irrespective of the category towhich they belonged and made arrangements for payingwelfare pensions to all eligible sections two months inadvance.

On March 19, in a commendable gesture, the Con-gress-led Opposition coalition too joined hands with theLeft Democratic Front (LDF) government in the fightagainst COVID-19. At a joint video conference withward-level members of all the local bodies in the State,Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan and Opposition LeaderRamesh Chennithala urged them to sink political differ-ences and unite to work proactively at the local levelagainst the spread of the disease, as the State faced theprospect of community phase transmission of the virus inthe coming weeks.

Referring to the experience of many other countriesthat suggested the possibility of wide transmission in thecommunity, the Opposition Leader too supported thegovernment’s call to local administrations for an ex-tremely vigilant approach to ensure that people followedgovernment guidelines and restrictions.

But as Kerala braces for the next stage with severestrain on the health system as it struggles to keep its gripon the key areas of surveillance, contact tracing, testingand patient care with the involvement of local com-munities, it is becoming clear that the State is leaningheavily on past social investments to ensure such smallsteps mattered in the management of the pandemic.

Kerala’s quick mobilisation contrasts sharply withthe experience of many other States and is a demonstra-tion that epidemic preparedness does not start on the eveof an outbreak and that the investments in universaleducation, effective decentralisation of powers and re-sources, and women’s empowerment, among others,have silently come into play to its advantage in the waragainst coronavirus.

From the late 1990s, with decentralisation becominga reality in Kerala, as 25 to 30 per cent of the Plan fundsbecame available for local bodies and planning and re-source mobilisation began at the local level, facilities inmany grassroots-level hospitals in the State improveddramatically.

In the past decade, Kerala also invested heavily toreorient its chain of nearly 900 rural primary healthcentres, to train grassroots-level health workers to mon-itor the health status of rural households, to providequality treatment services including speciality care facil-ities at the taluk, district and general hospitals in addi-tion to the medical college hospitals, and to create apatient-friendly environment in all government hospit-als (“Reinventing healthcare”, Frontline, September 29,2017).

The wisdom of Kerala’s planners to keep the networkof government hospitals as a counterweight against theprivate sector has come to the aid of the State at thiscritical juncture too, when it is preparing for what seemsto be a long battle to try and contain the viral pandemicthat has left entire nations terrified. m

AN AWARENESS campaign for autorickshaw drivers onphysical distancing and personal hygiene.

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WITH ITS VAST EXPERIENCE IN SUCCESSFULLYhandling natural disasters, the Odisha government istackling the challenge posed by the novel coronavirus,COVID-19, with utmost caution. It is allowing its cohes-ive and well-oiled machinery to work without any fuss.

Even before anyone had tested positive forcoronavirus infection, the State Cabinet on March 12declared COVID-19 a “disaster” under the provisions ofthe Disaster Management Act, 2005.

Keeping the virus’ potential threat to communities inmind, the government approved the COVID-19 OdishaRegulations, 2020, and earmarked Rs.200 crore to aug-ment the Public Health Response Fund.

Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik’s statement in theState Assembly provided the desired seriousness to theadministration as well as the general public.

“Only a few times in the history of mankind havehuman beings as a race faced challenges beyond theircomprehension. With advances in science, this phe-nomenon has become a rarity,” he said, by way of out-lining the gigantic challenge.

“The World Health Organisation has declaredCOVID-19 as a global pandemic. It has urged upon allmember-states to take urgent and aggressive action tocontain the spread of the pandemic. This extraordinarycircumstance calls for an extraordinary response,” he

Proactive OdishaThe Odisha government declares coranavirus infection a disaster and

prepares its administration to manage and limit the transmission of

the disease effectively. BY PRAFULLA DAS

ODISHA CHIEF MINISTER Naveen Patnaik and other political leaders washing their hands at the State Assemblybuilding in view of the coronavirus alert, in Bhubaneswar on March 13.

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added. The government was aware that the State’s publichealth infrastructure was not equipped to bear the bur-den of patients influx in the stage III (community trans-mission) spread of the virus, but its strength lay inmanagement and limiting the transmission.

What came next was a well-thought-out strategy. Thegovernment constituted an Empowered Group of Minis-ters and a Committee of Secretaries under the chairman-

ship of the Chief Secretary to evaluate the emergingsituation on a daily basis.

Recognising the fact that effective communication isvital in fighting a pandemic, the government appointedSubroto Bagchi, co-founder of the information techno-logy consulting company Mindtree, as chief spokesper-son on COVID-19.

Bagchi, who heads the Odisha Skill Development

Authority, brought calmness in the dissemination systemwithout letting the seriousness of the situation fizzle out.When people became apprehensive about staying quar-antined for 14 days, he quoted the tradition associatedwith the presiding Hindu deity of Puri, Jagannath, tostrike an emotional chord with the people.

“Every year, Lord Jagannath contracts cold, which istriggered by a virus, before the annual rath yatra [the

chariot festival in June/July]. The Lord goes into quar-antine for exactly 14 days, the same number of daysprescribed for chicken pox and coronavirus cases as well.During the quarantine period, Lord Jagannath takesrest, gets the right kind of medication and takes the rightkind of food. He comes back rejuvenated,” Bagchi said.

The State governments devised a specific responseagainst the possible spread of the coronavirus from

IN Maharashtra, going by rumours, people began tosuspect that the Uddhav Thackeray government washushing up the real extent of the contagion. As onMarch 21, the State reported 62 confirmed cases ofinfection and there was the declaration that more caseswere likely by the end of the month when more than25,000 Indians from the Gulf countries would disem-bark in Mumbai.

A Health Department official says, “Why would wehush up numbers? Cases are being monitored. Yes, it isquite possible that there are many cases we don’t knowof but you cannot call that a hush-up. We are spreadingawareness, and doctors and nurses are working on awar footing.”

It is a gargantuan task. “Obviously the virus had theelement of surprise and we can only react to it. Now weare learning more and that is why you see the medicaland physical distancing advisories,” the official said.

Mumbai, with a population of more than 20 millionis an area of great concern for the country. Schools,gyms, swimming pools and malls have been closed. TheRailways cancelled 39 long-distance trains and raisedthe price of platform tickets by five times in order todeter crowds. The municipality decided that shopsselling essential items would remain open while storesselling non-essential goods would be open every altern-ate day. The Catholic Church is conducting the Sundaymass online. Most of the mosques have shut their doorsfor community prayer.

The Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC)sent teams to housing societies to check if any of itsresidents had returned from travel abroad or within thecountry. Cases from high-risk countries were noted andtold to go to Kasturba Hospital. Others were told to visittheir doctors and opt for voluntary quarantine of twoweeks. In Mumbai, Kasturba Hospital, dedicated toinfectious diseases, is the only government hospitalwith an isolation facility. When asked about the facilit-ies in the hospital following the death of a 64-year-oldman from Ghatkopar in Mumbai, who tested positivefor coronavirus, on March 17, a civic official told themedia that the isolation facility was set up according toCentral government norms and had invasive and non-invasive ventilators. However, there was no dedicated

ICU for coronavirus patients. While there is no shortageof coronavirus testing kits and the staff are trained, it isinadequate for the vast population of the city.

The BMC has opened another 20-bed isolation unitat HBT Trauma Care Hospital in the northern suburbof Jogeshwari. Nine private hospitals and one railwayfacility have been instructed to set up isolation wards.Opening new wards will take time because protectiveclothing has to be obtained, protocols have to be fixedand staff have to be trained. The hospitals have to beready to receive patients who have been screened atairports and are considered likely cases. Eight newtesting facilities will be opened. The BMC is the onlycivic body in the country to bear the entire expenditureof treating patients in its hospital. It has capped thecharges levied by private hospitals for treatment ofCOVID-19 cases at Rs.4,000 or 50 per cent of the actualfee, whichever is less. In all, 100 beds have been re-served in seven private hospitals for coronavirus cases.The government plans to turn hostels and guesthousesof Rashtriya Chemical Fertilizers, Hindustan Petro-leum, Indian Institute of Technology Bombay and soon, into quarantine facilities.

By and large the government advisories have beenpractical, doable and reliant on the citizens’ sense of

social duty. The BMC released a plan according towhich shops in various areas would be closed in aphased manner. Medical and grocery shops are exemptfrom closure.

Parul Gandhi, a small entrepreneur who used toown a glove and mask manufacturing unit in Gujarat,says she and other manufacturers were made to closedown their units some years ago. “We used to makegloves and masks but the competition from China wasso strong that I had no option but to close it down. I had50 workers and had to let them go. Our government’staxes and other stipulations killed the business. Most ofus became importers, and we all imported from China.Now China is not delivering and so we have a shortage.The manufacturing industry in India has beenstrangled by cheap Chinese goods. Maybe coronaviruswill teach the government to respect its own manufac-turers,” she said.

Some small-scale industries in the Palghar indus-trial zone have now responded to the demand formasks. From a daily production of around two lakhthree-ply surgical masks, they are now making close to10 lakh a day by working double shifts.

The patient who died on March 17 had tested posit-ive for coronavirus on March 11. He was treated in theICU of Hinduja Hospital but was shifted to KasturbaHospital. He died because of bilateral pneumonia com-plications that resulted in cardiac arrest. The man had

travelled to Dubai on February 22 and come back onMarch 5. Three days after his return he developed afever with a cough and had difficulty in breathing. Testsconducted by his doctors were inconclusive but a throatswab sent to Kasturba Hospital showed up positive. Hiswife and son are now under treatment at KasturbaHospital. No one was allowed at his funeral except themunicipal staff who wore protective suits and wrappedthe body in a plastic sheet before cremation. They wereheavily disinfected afterwards. A 59-year-old man, whohad returned from the Philippines, also tested positiveand is in a critical state and on a ventilator.

Pune district has recorded 22 cases, 12 in the indus-trial zone of Pimpri-Chinchwad and 10 in Pune. Thedistrict authorities decided to send all passengers land-ing at Pune airport from international destinations tohospital quarantine for 24 hours regardless of theirhealth status. The Divisional Commissioner warned ofstrict action against those who violated home quarant-ine norms. Small businesses have already been affected.Tea stalls and street food outlets have stopped function-ing. Three crucial sectors that are already showing signsof a downturn are the share market, real estate and thefilm industry. The share market plunged 2,000 pointsin the first hour of trading on March 16 after the govern-ment announced that India had 110 reported cases(India now has 293 cases). While markets are uncom-monly sensitive to any change, the effect of the virus hasbeen taken seriously by the Reserve Bank of India,which has infused Rs.1 lakh crore into the market. Thisis an effort to mitigate the adverse impact of the virus onthe market. With the cancellation of film shootings andtheatre screenings, film industry experts estimate theinitial losses at around Rs.800 crore.

While the administration’s response so far has beensatisfactory, given the novel nature of the virus, howdoes it plan to curtail the spread of the virus in residen-tial slums, where the population lives cheek by jowl andwhere physical distancing may not work? More thananything, the administration needs to be vigilant aboutfear-based violence. Railway officials said 18 passen-gers, who had been stamped at the Mumbai airportwith the words “Home Quarantine”, were asked to dis-embark from trains by fellow passengers and officials. Itwas done in a non-violent manner. Such actions shouldnot turn into vigilantism.

Lyla Bavadam

State of vigil in Maharashtra

COMMUTERS ona train in Mumbaitravel to work onMarch 12, ignoringthe Stategovernment’sadvisory tomaintain physicaldistance in thewake of thecoronavirusoutbreak.A

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people returning from foreign travel. Declaring thatpeople coming from abroad were the biggest source ofinfection, the government made it mandatory for suchpersons to register themselves within 24 hours of arrivalwith all contact details in the toll-free number 104 or theonline portal https://covid19.odisha.gov.in. It incentiv-ised the step by offering Rs.15,000 to each person regis-tering their details.

E N C O U R A G I N G Q U A R A N T I N E

The incentive was meant to encourage people to undergo14 days of home quarantine. In less than a week’s time,2,600 people, who had arrived from 104 countries, re-gistered their travel and contact details. This helped thegovernment in tracing the persons, sensitising themabout the need for home isolation, and keeping a watchon their health. Foreign returnees were in home isolationin all the 30 districts of the State.

Those who volunteered to be in home quarantineinclude Gita Mehta, well-known writer and Patnaik’ssister; Dibyasingha Deb, Puri’s titular king; and VineelKrishna, an Indian Administrative Service officer. Thissent out the right kind of message.

The government threatened legal action againstthose who failed to register. “The registration is mandat-ory for the sake of public health safety. There is no choice.If anyone violates the direction, relevant portions of theCrPC [Code of Criminal Procedure] and the IPC [IndianPenal Code] will be taken recourse to,” Chief SecretaryAsit Tripathy said.

Of the 60-odd suspected persons who had undergonetests, a student who came from Italy tested positive forcoronavirus infection in Bhubaneswar on March 15. Thegovernment immediately intervened to enforce physicaldistancing. It advised people to keep interactions to themost essential levels while taking all precautions.

All educational institutions were directed to stay

closed until March 31 and examinations were postponed.The government cancelled non-essential official gather-ings such as seminars, workshops and conferences.Cinema halls, swimming pools and gyms were ordered tobe closed until March 31. It subsequently extended theperiod of all regulations in force until April 15, resultingin panic buying of essential items. The government thenordered all shops selling essential commodities andmedicines to remain open. The State Election Commis-sion has postponed the panchayat byelections, whichwere to be held in 20 districts on March 24.

The government asked all religious institutions andtourist spots to restrict the number of visitors. Withindays, the flow of visitors, which used to be in lakhs at theJagannath temple in Puri, the Sun temple at Konark andthe Lingaraj temple in Bhubaneswar, came down tohundreds. Subsequently, the government stopped entryof devotees into the Jagannath temple and all temples,mosques and churches in the State.

The Puri district administration even used force toevacuate tourists from hotels and to prohibit entry oftourists into Konark and Puri. Religious events, wherelarge congregations are common, and social functions,including marriages, were regulated.

In order to keep elderly people indoors, the govern-ment released food entitlement for three months underthe National Food Security Act, including delivery at thedoorstep without the requirement of biometric verifica-tion. The government also started the process of disburs-ing three months’ pension to the aged and persons withdisabilities.

Although some of the steps taken by the governmentappeared to be small, they had a huge impact as far associal distancing is concerned. Vegetable markets wereclosed in the evening hours and the sale of subsidisedcooked food at Aahaar centres was prolonged. Thesemeasures helped disperse the crowd.

Some district administrations even imposed Section144 of the CrPC to stop mass gathering for religious andcultural events. However, the government came up withoperational guidelines under COVID-19 Odisha Regula-tions, 2020, to smoothen the response.

While the government was taking measures to com-bat COVID-19, Bagchi and his team spread awarenessamong the public about the need to wash hands, coverthe mouth with masks and keep the surroundings clean.

A three-day awareness programme was undertakenwhere local leaders were encouraged to urge villagers totake precautions against the spread of the coronavirus.Patnaik appealed to Odias to stop spitting paan, a wide-spread practice in the State.

The government has chalked out a six-month actionplan. Keeping the possible burden on public health infra-structure in mind, it released Rs.5 lakh to every pan-chayat to convert panchayat buildings into isolationwards. At many blocks, schools were declared quarantinefacilities. Three hotels in Bhubaneswar city were de-clared as pay-and-use quarantine facilities for touristsand guests. m

SUBROTO BAGCHI, the Odisha government’s chiefspokesperson on COVID-19, addressing a pressconference in Bhubaneswar on March 20.

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COVER STORY

EVEN AS THE CORONAVIRUS PANDEMICunleashes an unprecedented global assault on lives andlivelihoods, driving the world towards a downturn which,in terms of scale, could well be reminiscent of the GreatDepression, India appears to be the odd one out in itshandling of the crisis. The leadership of every majoreconomy, including the ones that have been singing pae-ans to globalisation, are undertaking some kind of gov-ernment intervention and expansionist fiscal policy.Countries as far apart as the United States, the UnitedKingdom, Italy, Germany, Japan, Singapore and Aus-tralia and also the European Union have announcedeither significant fiscal expansion or spending drives as acountercyclical measure. India, under PrimeMinisterNarendra Modi, remains steadfast in its stoic resistanceto any such move.

To be sure, there is a great deal of uncertainty aboutthe virus and what impact it will have on the economies of

the world. Nobody knows yet what the impact will be onoutput, jobs, lives and public health, but all agree that theworld’s productive capacity is going to suffer a majordislocation as supply chains break down, spending prior-ities shift for people and governments, and peoplearound the world cope with some form of lockdown.Recent estimates by J.P. Morgan reveal that China’sgross domestic product (GDP) is likely to contract by awhopping 40 per cent in the first quarter of the year,while the U.S. economy is likely to shrink by 14 per cent inthe second quarter. The European economy is expectedto contract by almost 25 per cent. As the pandemic’sepicentre shifts westward from China, with Italy, Spain,Germany, the U.S. and the U.K. being the new flash-points, the global economy is entering a zone that willmake the global financial crisis of a decade ago appear asa minor blip. The only certainty in the short term is thatexports from most major economies will be severely hit

Economic burdenAs the global economy heads towards an unprecedented collapse in

demand, India under Narendra Modi sticks to fiscal fundamentalism

when even diehard right-wing governments are trying to boost fiscal

spending. BY V. SRIDHAR

BUSINESSES CLOSED in T. Nagar, Chennai’s shopping district, following a State government order aimed at preventingthe spread of COVID-19. A March 20 photograph.

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by a combination of collapsing demand, broken supplychains and a significant reordering of national prioritiesdictated by a renewed emphasis on health care.

D E M A N D C O L L A P S E

The Indian economy, already in a prolonged slowdown,is likely to suffer a more serious shock for two reasons.First, although the Modi regime is in deep denial, despiteevidence of a severe slump in demand—preferring todescribe it in the words of its policy wonks as a “cyclical”problem—the economy is likely to suffer a severe com-pression as Indians prepare for their version of physicaldistancing and isolation and possibly worse as the virustakes hold. For instance, it is already obvious that work-from-home will have an impact on an entire ecosystemthat was clustered around organised enterprises. Manysuch businesses cannot survive for long and may wellshut shop forever, as had happened after demonetisationin 2016 or the implementation of the goods and servicestax (GST) the following year. Many small and informalbusinesses will not be able to climb back into the ecosys-tem after a sudden and forced exit. The closure or thesignificant scaling down of a range of establishmentsproviding services is likely to further lower demand.

But it will be a mistake to view the problem as oneaffecting only small or informally run businesses. Forinstance, the Indian Railways cancelled 155 pairs oftrains in the week starting March 16. It carried 55 percent fewer passengers than it did a week earlier, andearnings fell by almost 50 per cent during this period.The Indian automobile industry, already in its longest-ever slowdown, has lost hope of recovery. A componentsupplier to Tata Motors, with operations at Jamshedpurand Pune, told Frontline that the lockdown brought hisoperations to a “complete halt”. “I was expecting a recov-ery in about six months, now I dare not predict when itwill happen.”

A large part of the Indian organised industry, whileappearing to exhibit characteristics of large enterprisesin terms of their productive capacity, actually exhibitcharacteristics of small-scale informal enterprises interms of the way they engage and pay labour. Thus, alarge proportion of the labour force in the auto industry isengaged as casual workers with little or no benefits andno security of tenure. As the crisis spreads and deepens,more workers are likely to lose jobs. The most immedi-ately vulnerable are those working in informal occupa-tions. A lockdown is like a death sentence to people whowork as domestic help or the hundreds of services thatform the livelihoods of millions in urban localities—hairdressers, rickshaw-pullers, “watchmen”, driverswhether part of the gig economy or otherwise and thoseengaged as delivery agents for companies such asAmazon. Every conceivable livelihood of this kind nowhangs by a thread. Narendra Modi’s appeal to everyIndian to stay indoors, accompanied by his exhortationto private employers to continue to pay their workers, isnot going to make an iota of difference to the lives of thesepeople.

The second significant aspect of the crisis is the ex-tensive dislocation of the economy’s supply chains. In-dustries that are dependent on imports, or those that areexport-based, such as garments, will feel a severe com-pression in demand. This is likely to unleash a chainreaction; garment units, for instance, are going to see thecollapse of their entire supply chains as spinning anddyeing units shut shop. Industries, such as machine tools,which depend on a countrywide network of suppliers ofparts and inputs are likely to suffer a major dislocationthat will make it difficult for them to jump-start at shortnotice as and when there are signs of a demand recovery.

D I S T A N C I N G , N O T A B A N D O N M E N T

Physical distancing need not mean abandonment. It isnot possible to enforce a lockdown of any kind withoutproviding people with a humane solution. Since such alockdown is a purely temporary measure, just two aspectsneed to be taken care of for the most vulnerable: ameasure of income support and the assurance of basicsupplies of essentials. Both these are perfectly possible.The Modi government already has extensive informationabout the bank accounts of citizens; surely the practicalaspects of putting some money into these ought not toinvolve any great logistical problem. If the Centre hadengaged with the State Chief Ministers instead of theengaging in a high-profile interaction with SAARC rep-resentatives, it would have been able to establish a work-ing protocol for cooperative best practices to achievethese two objectives.

T H E K E R A L A E X A M P L E

Indeed, if Modi had paid attention to Kerala ChiefMinister Pinarayi Vijayan’s announcement made justprior to his own speech on March 19, he would havenoticed a completely different approach. The Keralagovernment announced a Rs.20,000-crore package,which ensures not only income support but also health,food and material supplies to its citizens during thisemergency. Even a relatively poor State like Odisha hasannounced measures that have an income-support di-mension and are backed by the delivery of essentialservices to those most affected by a lockdown.

Across the world it is clear that fiscal measures havebeen the weapon of choice for governments, even thoseled by diehard right-wing regimes. Some nations, like theU.K., added quantitative easing to the package. The un-willingness to countenance a fiscal package that has asignificant component aimed at the most vulnerable isnot only irresponsible but also sure to leave the economyin a state from which it cannot recover even when thingsimprove. Modi only announced a task force headed byFinance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman that will oversee arelief package.

There have been indications that small enterprisesmay be allowed deferred payment of their loans, or thatthe NPA (non-performing assets) classification normsmay be relaxed significantly. There is also speculationthat direct cash credits may be used as a means of provid-

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ing income support. The last mentioned is a tricky one,especially in an emergency, going by the experience ofthousands of poor people who have been unable to au-thenticate their identities through the Aadhaar system.Moreover, the experience with the PM-Kisan scheme hasbeen patchy, with many beneficiaries not getting thepromised amount that is due to them as relief. In anemergency such as the ongoing one, it would have madebetter sense for the Modi regime to have involved theStates in the actual delivery of services and support be-cause they are better positioned to do it.

The kind of measures that the regime appears to bewilling to implement can hardly be effective. For in-stance, extension of loan repayments is not going toenable a small unit to continue operations if it is not evenoperational. In the situation of collapsing demand,neither lower interest payments, engineered throughmonetary policy, nor a relaxation of terms of loan pay-ments, facilitated by a relaxation of banking regulations,is going to keep the small unit afloat. A demand collapseof the kind that is likely to happen very soon requiresincome-generating measures. For instance, the Ma-hatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guaranteescheme can provide a demand boost, even in a time suchas now when no work is actually possible. Similarly,health care expenditures undertaken, especially now,through the deployment of paramedics and medical pro-fessionals would achieve a similar purpose. All it requiresis a little imagination, one that pays attention to thenature of livelihoods, and a little empathy to figure outwhat works best in the circumstances for those affectedmost. Of course, this method is not foolproof and mis-takes may well be made in striking the right priorities,but nobody would blame a government that is trying fornot trying even more in such a situation.

T H E C A S E O F C H I N A

There is no hint that the regime has learnt anything fromthe way China has handled the impact of COVID-19.Despite being the first economy to take a massive hit,China not only kept the effects confined mostly to a singleprovince, but also sharply escalated investments in infra-

structure to engineer a revival of demand. It has reliedfundamentally on fiscal measures, issuing local govern-ment bonds to the tune of $394 billion, to back thisstrategy. The emphasis is clearly on reviving domesticdemand in a situation where the external environment isunlikely to improve in the immediate term.

Meanwhile, the Indian emphasis on Make in India,ostensibly to produce in India for the global market,remains hopelessly riddled with contradictions. TheModi regime’s utter inability to even concede a collapseof local demand, let alone put in place measures to reviveit, makes sure that India is at a dead end.

M O D I ’ S A D D R E S S : T H E S I L E N C E S

Modi’s televised address made a touching appeal to Indi-ans to prepare to face the health crisis boldly and withfortitude. But the most significant aspect of his speech layin what he did not say. Nowhere in his speech did hereveal what his government had done in the severalweeks since it became evident that India was not going toescape the wrath of the virus. Why, for instance, has theIndian government not established a transparent testingprotocol that would check for evidence of communitytransmission of the disease so that the disease can becountered at an earlier rather than later stage? Thosedefending the regime were quick to argue that this wouldbe too costly. A back-of-the-envelope calculation revealsthat at a cost of Rs.2,000 a test, one crore Indians couldbe tested for a total of Rs.20,000 crore—possibly muchless if bulk orders are taken into account. Compare thereluctance to spend on this to the alacrity with which thegovernment appears to be considering a plea fromprivate airlines for a “relief” package of Rs.12,000 crore.

The biggest danger now staring at India is of thecountry going into Stage III of the pandemic, whencommunity transmission of the virus takes root. At thatpoint, access to higher levels of treatment—involving theavailability of hospital beds, ventilators and ICU facilit-ies—becomes crucial.

The Modi regime’s handling of the epidemic suggeststhat it has bet too high on its luck. If India gets to thatstage, the costs for the economy and its people couldbecome significantly higher. In such an eventuality, Indiawould undergo not only a severe implosion of demand,but also a dislocation of production and supply networksand chains so extreme as to be impossible to recoverfrom.

If past record is anything to go by, it is likely that thetask force will provide special relief packages of the kindit has offered in the last several months at considerablecost to the exchequer. Tax breaks to the rich have beensubstantial. The telecom industry czars are alreadyqueuing up; the ones from the airline industry may benext; and many more sectarian interests, all playing theCOVID card, will queue up for relief. If anything, theModi regime’s response to the epidemic has confirmedthat the callous disregard for ordinary Indians that itdisplayed during demonetisation and GST implementa-tion is exactly what we are going to see now. m

PRIME MINISTER Narendra Modi. His address to thenation on March 19 had nothing on what the governmentproposed to do to handle the crisis.

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COVER STORY

THE WORLD HEALTH ORGANISATION (WHO)officially declared the coronavirus disease a global pan-demic, sparking broad criticism of the so-called China’soriginal sin. Some voices mention that Beijing shouldhave revealed more information about the virus in theinitial stages, disclosed the exact origin of the disease, etc.It seemed that the Chinese government had a skeleton inits closet. Biochemical weapon, artificial virus—anti-Chinese conspiracy theories went viral. So, let us see whatChina has done for battling the epidemic.

While the coronavirus has caused more than 110,000infections across 114 countries and regions, with a global

death toll of more than 8,000, China implemented strin-gent prevention and control measures at great cost,which the WHO has praised highly: Almost 60 days’ andnights’ battle against the virus, 340 medical assistanceteams, more than 42,000 health-care workers who havebeen separated from their families since the ChineseSpring Festival. Among them, 46 have died on duty and1,716 infected. Besides, the Chinese government lockeddown the virus epicentre, Wuhan, where 10 millionpeople live, on January 23. Across Hubei, as many as 60million people faced some sort of outbound restriction.Without their sacrifice, it would have been impossible for

The Chinese wayChina has pooled all its resources to fight the coronavirus and is

not only helping other countries with medical supplies and expert teams

but also sharing its frontline medical experiences with the world

in a transparent way. BY BOFENG HU

ARMY MEDICAL PERSONNEL arrive with supplies in a transport aircraft of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Air Forceat the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport on February 13.

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close to 80 per cent of the over 80,000 infected patientson the Chinese mainland to recover. Looking at theirsacrifice, any allegation based on conspiracy theories isunfair.

E C H O E S O F T H E G R E A T P L A G U E

It reminds me of the Great Plague, also known as theBlack Death, which happened in Eyam village in Eng-land, located 35 miles (one mile is 1.6 kilometres) south-east of Manchester. The plague arrived at Eyam in thesummer of 1665. As the disease began to spread aroundthe village, panic set in and some people initially sugges-ted that they should flee. It was then that a courageousrector named William Mompesson stepped in and per-suaded the villagers not to leave the village, as doing sowould put the neighbouring towns and villages at risk. Itmust have been a painful decision to take, but at lengththe villagers agreed and decided to quarantine them-selves even though it would mean death for many ofthem.

Eyam’s decision was important, as it meant thatfewer people died of the plague, which did not spreadacross the rest of England. In the end, just 35 out of 350villagers were left in the village; 259 people gave theirlives to save others. Today, there are plaques, signs andmemorials all around the village, and on the last Sundayof every August, known as Plague Sunday, a commemor-ative service is held at Eyam. This is exactly what ishappening in China, in Wuhan and Hubei. If Eyam is tobe remembered always for the heroic sacrifice, why notWuhan and Hubei? If 259 villagers could be called mar-tyrs and awarded flowers, why not for the Chinesepeople?

China has passed the peak of the virus outbreak, withnew cases trickling down and the overall epidemic situ-ation improving. China’s experience, even Eyam’s, showsthat in order to battle a highly infectious disease, the firstand foremost task is to stop it from spreading. As every-one knows, the outbreak of the virus coincided with theChinese Spring Festival holiday, when hundreds of mil-lions move from one place to another by air or by high-speed train. However, the holiday passenger volume of2020 was slashed by half and for those who needed totravel, seats were spaced out to minimise contact.

The second aspect, mass mobilisation, is indispens-able. Medical resources poured into Wuhan and othercities in Hubei, the hardest hit by the virus. A day after theWuhan lockdown, 450 military health workers arrived tohelp local doctors. During the early stages of the out-break, they faced a dire shortage of supplies. Therefore,factories that previously made garments, plastics, andeven tofu, shifted rapidly to mask production eventhough the transformation may come at a cost. Accord-ing to the Chinese Ministry of Industry and InformationTechnology, China’s output of protective clothing surgedto 500,000 pieces a day from fewer than 20,000 pieces atthe beginning of the outbreak. The daily output of N95-rated medical masks rose from 200,000 to 1.6 millionwhile the production of regular masks reached 100

million.The third aspect, policy adjustment, is flexible and

efficient. By the end of January, all provincial-level re-gions in China had activated top-level emergency re-sponse to the epidemic, cancelling mass events,suspending long-distance buses, and closing touristspots. China even postponed annual sessions of the na-tional legislative and political advisory bodies, a key eventin the Chinese political calendar. However, when thesituation began to improve, provinces took differentiatedmeasures to resume economic activities. According to anational guideline, regions with relatively low risk fo-cussed on preventing imported cases and comprehens-ively restoring the order of production and life.Medium-risk regions promoted work and productionresumption in an orderly manner while high-risk regions

such as Wuhan continued to be fully committed to epi-demic prevention and control.

The fourth aspect, the role of the tech sector, helpedthe battle with the epidemic. The Chinese governmentcalled for the acceleration of research for new-type test-ing kits, antibody medicines, vaccines, diagnosis andtreatment plans. According to sources in the Chinesemedia, a vaccine is being developed and convalescentplasma therapy has also been experimented. My col-league in China shared with me several videos thatshowed robots spraying disinfectants, drones carryingout surveillance and announcing precaution measures byusing rap in communities. Beyond robots and drones,

COMMUNITY WORKERS in protective suits disinfect aresidential compound in Wuhan on March 6.

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China also upgraded its facial recognition system to scancrowds and identify individuals suffering from fever orabnormally high body temperature. In Chengdu, a south-western city of China, the police force has been armedwith a high-tech smart helmet which looks like the one inthe American mystery film Surrogates. It can automatic-ally measure a person’s temperature when they enter afive-metre range. The helmet will ring an alarm if anyonehas a fever. Hangzhou, an eastern city in nearby Shang-hai, is the first Chinese city to adopt QR codes for medicalservice. People download an app, which is connectedwith the user’s electronic health cards and social securitycards, making everything easy, from registration to medi-cine-taking. Residents can show the QR codes at com-munity or expressway checkpoints to prove their heathcondition and this no-contact check leads to reducedvirus-transmission risk. Although some of these newtechnologies triggered concerns of privacy in Chinesesocial media, they are indeed efficient and extremelynecessary during a health crisis.

China spent two months showing the world the mosteffective ways to prevent the spread of the epidemic:wearing masks, washing your hands and eliminatingmass gathering. Not only that; on January 12, Chinashared the genome sequence of the new virus with theWHO, after identifying the pathogen on January 7. Sofar, China has shared multiple files on epidemic controlas well as diagnosis and treatment plans with over 100countries and more than 10 international and regionalorganisations. Zhong Nanshan, head of China’s NationalHealth Commission high-level expert group, also sharesChina’s solutions, discusses the clinical characteristicsand treatment difficulties of critically ill patients, andaddresses his concerns in tackling the virus with hisforeign counterparts. Doesn’t it show solidarity and co-operation between China and other countries?

At the beginning of this article, I talked about somecriticism and conspiracy theories, such as the necessity ofdisclosing the exact origin of the disease by the Chinesegovernment. I do not intend to deny that virus traceabil-

ity is important. And China is indeed going to find it out.But, at the same time, we need to take immediate stepsand precautions to battle with the fatal virus, such asresearching a vaccine under a global cooperation pro-gramme. Even if we do not know which gorilla was theexact source of the contagion of the HIV virus, we still canprotect ourselves from getting infected.

L A C K O F M U T U A L T R U S T

“Today humanity faces an acute crisis not only due to thecoronavirus, but also due to the lack of trust betweenhumans,” said Yuval Noah Harari, a philosopher andauthor of Sapiens: A Brief History of Humankind. “Todefeat an epidemic, people need to trust scientific ex-perts, citizens need to trust public authorities, and coun-tries need to trust each other.” He added: “In thismoment of crisis, the crucial struggle takes place withinhumanity itself. If this epidemic results in greater dis-unity and mistrust among humans, it will be the virus’sgreatest victory.” I could feel his regret, caused by fake,racist and extremely nationalistic news and conspiracytheories that have flooded social media. It reflects a biggap which shows the lack of mutual trust.

For example, a viral video allegedly shows a Chinesewoman enjoying the infamous “bat soup” which has beenblamed for the spread of the virus, but the fact is that thevideo was actually taken years ago and outside China.However, crazy and irresponsible posts such as these getshared many thousands of times. I understand that it isprobably because of the exacerbation of the public healthsituation and its anxieties. But policymakers and opinionshapers, whether public or corporate, must learn toscreen and provide real information. Otherwise, thecrisis will only increase multifold.

I think the first cholera pandemic (1817-1824) whichbegan in and attacked the city of Calcutta (now Kolkata)and spread throughout Southeast Asia and West Asia,eastern Africa and the Mediterranean coast is still im-printed in Indian memory. It reached as far as China.When we look back on the history of battling this pan-demic, the most critical inspiration is working togetherand finding out scientific methods and not conspiracytheories.

The virus, identified as COVID-19 by the WHO, is theenemy of all human beings, and the Chinese governmenthas set a good example in shouldering the responsibilityto control the virus, making strategic decisions and help-ing other countries by not only dispatching medical sup-plies and medical teams but also sharing China’sfrontline medical experiences with the world in an openand transparent way. Though China still needs to bevigilant for imported infections, its experience showsthat the disease can and will be contained. Do not letanyone else persuade you with their so-called survivorbias. China deserves well of the world. m

Bofeng Hu is Associate senior journalist of People’sDaily of China and a Fellow of Taihe Institution.Email: barryhbf@hotmail.com

INSIDE A SUPERMARKET in Wuhan, China, onFebruary 10.

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COVER STORY

“EUROPE IS NOW THE EPICENTRE”: WORLDHealth Organisation (WHO) Director General Dr Ted-ros Adhanom Ghebreyesus declared in Geneva on March13, as confirmed cases of novel coronavirus (COVID-19)infection rose in Italy and the virus spread to allEuropean Union (E.U.) countries.

On March 20, Italy reported 5,900-odd fresh casesand 627 deaths, the highest daily tally of mortality repor-ted from anywhere in the world. The total number ofcases in Italy had crossed 40,000 and deaths 4,000,overtaking the death toll in China. The authorities werecaught unawares. Ironically, just as the Olympic torchwas being lit in Athens, there was a blaze of COVID-19 inItaly.

As the centre of gravity of the unprecedented pan-

demic shifts decisively westward, it is pertinent to ask:Why Italy?

Europe, after the tumult of two World Wars, hadembarked on the road to recovery through mutual co-operation, exemplified by the Maastricht Treaty in 1993,which established it as a union of constituent nations, aborderless region to facilitate trade and the free move-ment of people. The union, reinforced by the post-Waremphasis on welfare, led to the western side of the con-tinent establishing some of the most advanced healthcare systems, which resulted in the high life expectancy

Lessons from Italy For a variety of reasons, Italy failed to contain the initial surge of the

pandemic. Its advanced health care network is its only solace; the focus is

now on management rather than prevention. BY DR SAI PRASATH J.

A PATIENT IN A BIOCONTAINMENT UNIT is carriedon a stretcher from an ambulance which arrived at theColumbus Covid 2 Hospital in Rome, on March 17.

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rates seen now. Indeed, deathrates exceeded birth rates, puttingthe population in a state of declinewhere the net replacement ratewas less than one. Thus, Europeaged, even as it became relativelywealthy.

Italy’s famed Colosseum andother attractions drew millions oftourists each year, making thecountry the fifth most populartourist destination. An open bor-der meant that the incoming tour-ist could travel anywhere inEurope. Perhaps these factors,that is, an ageing population, ahigh rate of internal migration,and a constant flow of touristsproved to be its undoing when thepandemic came knocking at itsdoor.

In the movie Contagion (2011), a health care thrillerrediscovered after the COVID-19 spread, an epidemiolo-gical surveillance officer explains the term R0, “the re-production number”, which in public health jargonshows how fast a disease spreads in the community. Inepidemiology, the R0 of an infection can be thought of asthe expected number of cases directly generated by onecase in a population where all individuals are susceptibleto infection. The R0 for COVID-19 has been estimated torange from 1.5 to 3.5 and to effectively stop the pandemic,we need to reduce this to less than 1. This is what is meantby “flattening the curve”, a term that has gone viral insocial media, which possibly explains why the benefits ofquarantine and physical distancing have gained socialacceptance so quickly. What makes COVID-19 differentfrom flu is the fact that humans lack antibodies to fight it,which is why it is termed “novel”. By implication, thismeans the lack of effective treatment and hence a highermortality rate. As the case count increased from a fewhundreds to several thousands, Chi-na’s apparently draconian lockdownworked to ebb the spread of the dis-ease. The measures, which appear tohave struck a wrong chord withEuropeans, have had fatal con-sequences.

Such is the field of public healththat when things are good, peoplehardly notice. Clean water, good hy-giene, good health care, are all takenfor granted until the system col-lapses. On February 20, the first caseemerged in Italy. This was a healthyyoung male who was initially not acoronavirus suspect. His only signi-ficant history was that he was at adinner with a few Chinese touriststwo weeks earlier. The health care

system was oblivious tocoronavirus; it only came to lightbecause a few diligent doctors no-tified COVID-19. An outbreak,which was initially thought of asan isolated event, was alreadyspreading in every European na-tion. Particularly alarming wasthe development of severalclusters throughout the contin-ent. Significantly, it is the relat-ively rich northern Italian regionof Lombardy which bore thebrunt of the disease. Dr GiacomoGracelli, head of intensive caremedicine, in Milan, described thisas a “big surprise”.

Lombardy, the industrial cap-ital of Italy and the fashion capitalof Europe, has had close connec-tions with China. Several thou-

sand Chinese work in factories there. Significantly, directflights connected Milan with Wuhan, the original sourceof the outbreak. All the factors had led to the failure ofidentification of the “index case” or the “case zero”, whichwould have been the first imported case in Europe. Im-portantly, contact tracing from Patient #1 did not work inItaly. The country, along with Spain (the second mostaffected country in Europe) is popular with retirementplanners. Its beaches and villas have attracted severalpost-retirement settlements. Thus, a rapidly multiplyingcluster of infections, which affected a predominantlyolder population, put a severe strain on one of the mostdeveloped health care systems in the world.

Eighty per cent of COVID-19 patients were asympto-matic, thereby reducing the total positive tests in com-parison to the prevalence of the disease. However, 40 percent of those diagnosed positive also required hospital-isation, 12 per cent required intensive care, a few amongthem the most critical equipment. Perhaps no other

disease that we know in modernmedicine has required such ahigh level of ventilator utilisa-tion. What started as a smallnumber escalated rapidly to sev-eral thousands.

On March 8, the Lombardyprovincial government ordered alockdown as the number of casesrose to 8,000. The order did notgo down well with the people andat least 10,000 people escaped tothe south. This led to the spreadof the disease to other regions ofthe country, which forced thegovernment to order a total lock-down on March 9. Hospitalswere scrambling to make beds forpatients. The ICU util-

Swine flu 2009 1.2 to 1.6 3

1918 flu 2 to 20 4

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Measles >10 >8

Chickenpox >7 >7

Mumps >10 >12

COVID-19 1.5 to 3.5 14

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isation of COVID-19 patients was particularly high andhealth care was a scarce resource. Had not some officebearers of medical organisations organised regional hos-pitals, the situation would have been far worse. The ICUswere split to treat exclusive coronavirus patients and forother medical conditions. Soon many hospitals had toconvert every ICU into a COVID-19 ICU, which severelyimpaired the response to other medical and surgicalconditions. Elective surgical operations were stopped;trauma cases were attended to with a lower standard ofcare; heart disease patients were left with no beds inICUs; and the problems compounded. Maurizio Cecconi,president-elect of intensivists (those specialised in workin ICUs) forum, warned other countries: “Do not under-estimate. It is not flu. Do not lose time.”

A significant feature of the outbreak in its early dayswas the high infection rate among health care personnel,which had a significant impact on the system’s ability totreat the surge of cases. In the first week of March, about10 per cent of the samples that tested positive turned outto be from health care professionals. This was attributedto the incorrect usage of personal protective equipment,particularly because of the shortage of such equipment.The workers who tested positive had to go into quarant-ine, creating a further shortage of manpower. Retireddoctors and university students were drafted, possiblyresulting in lowering the standard of care. The number ofnurses trained to operate ventilators was also low. Thiswas a critical bottleneck in Italy.

The administration drew up a plan: given up oncontainment and focus on management and treatment.In order to reduce infections among health care workers,six-hour shifts were allocated when the workers couldnot eat, drink water or use the restroom and had to wearhead-to-toe protective equipment. Lombardy had 700ICU beds when the epidemic broke out. A massive scal-ing up became necessary to increase the capacity to 1,200beds. But almost all the beds have been occupied bycoronavirus patients.

Perhaps the most significant aspect of this epidemicin Italy was the response from the people. They were notused to restrictions. They could not follow the stringentdiscipline enforced in China. Nearly 44,000 people havebeen booked across the country for defying prohibitionorders. Epidemiologists warn that the epidemic has notyet attained its peak in Italy. Since the incubation periodof the virus is up to 14 days, it is expected that cases wouldcontinue to pile up until at least March 23. The logic ofthis assessment is based on the 14-day interval from thelockdown initiated on March 9. Experts have argued thateven if the lockdown was only partially effective, it wouldhave helped in bringing about a quicker flattening of thepeak. The high rate of mortality has also been attributedto the drug Ibuprofen, an over-the-counter pain relieveras well as an antipyretic whose availability has been dulycurtailed since then. Ibuprofen lowered the subjects’ im-mune response, which hampered their recovery.

An unprecedented positive feature of the crisis is howItalian doctors have managed to contribute a wealth ofinformation, disseminating scientific knowledgethrough clinical papers, even as they have been handlingthe biggest medical crisis of their lives. Doctors havereported that supportive care and mechanical ventilationhave benefited patients. Younger patients reportedly re-sponded better to CPAP (continuous positive airwaypressure), a method of non-invasive ventilation.

A few cases of anecdotal evidence of success havebeen attributed to chloroquine and azithromycin com-binations. China had been using a Lopinavir/Ritonavircombination, a protease inhibitor used in human im-muno virus infection with varying levels of success. Themost significant finding released recently was the usageof Favipravir, an antiviral approved in Japan for flu,being successful with significant remissions. However,all the drugs have not been put through rigorous trial andtheir use has been observed only anecdotally. It mighttake several months before a permanent cure is ap-proved. Other therapies such as serum from recovered

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patients have also shown good results but they proved tobe costly and associated with many side-effects. Italianexperts have called other European countries to use theadvantage of time—a luxury Italy did not have—apartfrom epidemiological surveillance, contact tracing, isola-tion, physical distancing, quarantine, and, if possible,lockdown. The critical part is training the personnel toensure that they do not contract the infection.

Italy, being one of the countries with the oldest popu-lations in the world with a high rate of diabetes (5.3 percent of the population) and hypertension (35-45 percent), coincidentally contributed to more deaths. Olderpeople are not expected to survive mechanical ventilationowing to these comorbidities. The average utilisation of aventilator was at least a week in Italy, and a consciousdecision was made to use life-saving machines on thosewhose chances of survival were better, generally betweenthe old and the young.

The mortality rate among the older population hasbeen high. Italy has reported only two deaths below theage of 40. This broadly compares with the data releasedfrom China. Malnutrition and immuno compromisedstates do increase coronavirus mortality. The youngestperson to die was a 21-year-old man who was sufferingfrom leukaemia.

One glimmer of hope in this crisis is the relativesparing of children so much so that the United Kingdomtried to “#KeeptheSchoolsOpen” to generate herd im-munity, which eventually proved futile because this onlyhelped the faster spread of the infection to the elderly.However, the lower instance of hospitalisation in chil-dren needs to be taken lightly as the disease is stillevolving and its response in conditions of malnutrition indeveloping countries is unknown.

So far, there has been no evidence of reinfection.Patients are being discharged once two swabs returnnegative. Italy has been testing only symptomatic peoplesince March 10 as the testing had overwhelmed thecapacity at laboratories.

The WHO has recommended the idea of “Test, test,test”. South Korea is the best example of flattening thecurve approach to COVID-19 with tests as high as 5,200per 10 lakh population, eventually reducing transmission

and nearing containment. Italy has done 2,100, theUnited States 74 and India 5 per 10 lakh population. Thetests have been done using a method called RT-PCR,which is costly to implement in a country with a largepopulation like India. The low test rate has been a causeof concern with India reportedly having only 150,000test kits for a population of 140 crore. Scarce resourcesneed to be directed at target populations, striking a finebalance between testing and over-testing. It is also im-perative to increase capacity significantly as the generalpopulation is anxious and a sense of unrest could soontake hold.

Several vaccine candidates have been under develop-ment and the first clinical trials in the U.S. have begun.However, they are at least 18 months away from massadministration. Candidates with established clinicalsafety could get faster approvals depending on the pre-vailing pandemic proportions.

The European response has been quite different fromChina’s, characterised by varied, sometimes even bizarre,response strategies. The governments were not preparedand failed to contain the initial surge. which resulted in achain reaction. Europe’s advanced health care network isits only solace as is the fact that the focus is on manage-ment rather than prevention.

Italy is not a backward nation. It is not a poor country.It also has a long history of welfare capitalism. If a healthcare crisis can affect such a nation, it shows a general lackof preparedness to fight epidemics. It is ironical to seehow a country figuring among the highest ICU beds percapita could run out of the resource. It is imperative thatgovernments around the world realise that public healthdepartments are important and the governments doleout enough recapitalisation measures. It is also ironicalhow 10 years of progress in financial markets could bewiped out in four weeks just because we did not plan foran outbreak.

The era of public health began with John Snow map-ping the points of contaminated water supply in London150 years ago. Population health, health care modelling,outbreak modelling and epidemiological intelligenceservices need to be ramped up and such resources need tobe made available in rich and poor countries.

With a predominantly young population, India mayappear deceptively to be at an advantage. However, Indiacannot afford to be complacent. Vigilant screening andisolation of suspected cases needs to be done. The coun-try is still in stage II (local transmission), during whichtraining to health care professionals, vigorous contacttracing and improved testing capacity should be theimmediate priority. Ramping up ICU beds and arrangingfor ventilators for urgent use requires to be a key priority.The best way India can manage this epidemic is bystopping its spread in a densely populated country withhigh levels of air pollution and a high prevalence ofrespiratory diseases. Recall that tuberculosis kills 60,000Indians every year. m

Dr Sai Prasath J. is a Chennai-based medicalpractitioner.

COVER STORY

UNITED STATES PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMPwas convinced that the coronavirus was just a commonflu. On March 4, he told the television host Sean Hannitythat the coronavirus was not even as lethal as the flu,which could kill between 27,000 and 77,000 people ayear. A week later, Dr Anthony Fauci of the NationalInstitutes of Health told the U.S. Congress that “themortality of COVID-19 is multiple times what the sea-sonal flu is”. The death rate for the flu is 0.1 per cent, whilethe World Health Organisation (WHO) says that theestimated death rate for coronavirus is at 3.4 per cent.This small incident reveals how callous Trump was fromthe very first about the coronavirus and the threat it posedto the people of the world, and to the people of the U.S.

Not only was Trump publicly callous about the threatfrom this coronavirus, but his administration had cutfunding for the Infectious Diseases Rapid Response Re-serve Fund and for the Centres for Disease Control andPrevention (CDC). The CDC lost 15 per cent of its budget,which amounts to $1.2 billion, while the Reserve Fundlost $35 million. The federal Public Health EmergencyPreparedness programme lost a third of its budget

between 2002 and 2019, now down to $617 million; thishas meant a loss of trained workers who can manage apandemic at the community level. These cuts come aftera decade of austerity for public health services in the U.S.and the haemorrhaging of workers in the social servicesand public health sectors. The infrastructure that woulddeal with a pandemic had been sliced down to the bone,or indeed, even into the bone.

The cuts to the sections of the U.S. government thatare meant to prepare for pandemics came alongside theattrition of U.S. health care in general. In 2019, 30 majorU.S. hospitals filed for bankruptcy, with others barelyalive as health care costs have soared and as governmentassistance has been reduced. The Polsinelli TrBK HealthCare Services Distress Index shows the spike in bank-ruptcies over the past few years. Health care policy ex-perts consider this process the “gentrification” ofhospitals—meaning that hospitals and health carecentres that used to serve the urban and rural poor havebeen “consolidated”, which means they have closeddown, with care now turned over to mega-hospitals inwealthier areas that are hard to access (they are physic-

Corona in TrumplandDonald Trump’s buffoonery in the face of the pandemic is not an

individual failing but a symptom of a country where the state

has been emptied out and lacks the capacity to act decisively

in a time of crisis. BY VIJAY PRASHAD

PRESIDENT TRUMP with Vice President Mike Pence and industry executives at the news conference in the Rose Gardenof the White House on March 13 when he declared the coronavirus pandemic a national emergency.

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ally distant from the urban and rural poor, and they havehigher barriers for medical insurance, with many of themnot wanting to accept government assistanceprogrammes).

With rising costs in the health care system and declin-ing government support, there has been a consolidationof hospitals in the hands of a few private equity consorti-ums led by Bain Capital, KKR, and Joel Freedman. Theirinterest is money, not health care. The “efficiencies” thatthey have brought to U.S. health care have includedcutting the surge capacity of hospitals: everything ismanaged for maximum usage, maximum beds used,maximum machines used; when an emergency breaksout, these hospitals are just not equipped with enoughbeds or staff to tackle the surge.

Beneath Trump’s cavalier attitude lies a much moredangerous reality: a health system that does not have thecapacity to deal with a pandemic.

The Harvard Global Health Institute has compiledimportant data on the coronavirus and what it might do.If the trends from Italy are matched in the U.S., thenthere will be between 10 and 34 million hospital visits inthe U.S. There are insufficient beds for people, particu-larly for the estimated 200,000 people—at a minimum—who would need to be in intensive care units; there areonly about 45,000 intensive care beds in the U.S., whichwould be quickly overrun. The U.S. has 2.8 hospital bedsper 1,000 people, which is far fewer than China (4.3 bedsper 1,000) and South Korea (12.3 beds per 1,000). InWuhan, the Chinese government built two hospitals in 10days; there is no such activity at present in the U.S. Hopevests in the U.S. military saving the day.

P E O P L E W I L L S T R U G G L E T O P A Y B I L L S

Trump has begun to throw money at the problem: $8.3billion in the first instalment and then $50 billion. This isimportant, but the U.S. will not be able to hastily con-struct capacity; if hospitals can be built, that is one thing,but staff cannot be trained in such a short time. Theausterity policy allowed private equity firms to makemoney on hospitals, but it was not able to retain trainedworkers who are most needed in the time of an emer-gency. Trump’s money will go towards buying equip-ment, but even here there are limitations as the globalsupply chain has seized up and production is not going tobe restarted easily. But none of this money will go to thepeople who, without work, will struggle to pay their bills.

Last year, a Federal Reserve survey pointed out that40 per cent of people in the U.S. do not have more than$400 in their bank accounts; this means that they mightrun out of money during the period of social isolation athome. Senator Mitt Romney suggested that the Trumpadministration send everyone a cheque for $1,000; thiswould go far towards allaying the potential bankruptcyand starvation of a considerable section of the popula-tion. The Trump administration has proposed givingevery U.S. citizen $1,000 to tide over in this time ofuncertainty; the proposal was not met with a favourableresponse, although as the enforced coronavirus unem-

ployment increases, there will be political pressure forsome kind of emergency payment.

First cities began to urge people not to gather in largenumbers, and then States went into full-blown quarant-ine. Within a few days in mid March, the entire countrywaited for the storm to come. What happened in Italywas a cruel shock. No longer was it possible to think of thecoronavirus as a “Chinese” episode, nor was it possible tosimply blame China; this was, as the WHO put it, a globalpandemic, and as the Chinese Foreign Ministry sugges-ted, it was hard to know exactly where the pandemicbegan. Doubt and shock prevailed as people rushed toshops to buy supplies, including hand sanitisers andtoilet paper (both of these ran out first).

Schools had to close, but this came at a cost; 70 percent of New York City’s public-school students rely uponthe meals served at school to help them stave off hunger,which meant that when the schools stopped, they wouldnot get three meals a day. Shops closed, at another cost:despite a reasonable Bill passed by the U.S. legislature,most workers neither had paid sick leave nor were theybeing given paid coronavirus leave. Unlike Spain, theU.S. government did not quickly nationalise hospitalstemporarily; unlike France and Italy, the U.S. did nothalt mortgage and rent payments. The self-isolationcomes at great personal cost to the U.S. working class.

Trump made a series of appearances after he had beenin close proximity to people who had contracted thecoronavirus, and each time he made comments that werenot true. He said that anyone who wanted a test forCOVID-19 could get one, which is not true; he said thatthe tests would be free, which is also not true. These slips,each one trying to show the government as humane,occasioned a lack of faith in the state and therefore greatpanic in society. One of the outcomes of this long-termausterity project in the West, which has included an ideo-logy of belittling the state, has been that the institutionsthat are necessary to battle a pandemic are insufficient; ithas also meant, in this period, that the achievements of theChinese and South Korean states have been mocked asbeing somehow the work of an authoritarian government.There is simply no room to understand that in thosesocieties, the state has not been whittled down and retainsthe capacity to act decisively in a time of crisis. This is notthe case in the U.S. Trump’s buffoonery is not, therefore,an individual failing; it is a symptom of a country wherethe state has been emptied out.

Little wonder that people rushed to stores to buywhat they could, including guns and ammunition. Noeffective government official informed the public aboutwhat was going on, what to expect and how the socialisolation would be managed by the state. People weretold to fend for themselves: wash your hands and hide inyour homes. There was no credible preparation, no cred-ible statements. As I write these lines, most people areunder a lockdown that might last at least two weeks.Classes are being taught online, workers bite their nailsas their jobs vanish and the elderly fear the flutter of theangel of death. m

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COVER STORY

IRAN IS AMONG THE COUNTRIES WORST HITby the coronavirus pandemic. As of March 19, the countryreported 1,248 deaths and 18,407 confirmed COVID-19cases. Iran currently has the third highest recorded infec-tion rate after China and Italy, closely followed by Spainwith 18,077 confirmed cases and 833 deaths. Unlike inmost of the other 160 countries, the coronavirus spike inIran has hit top levels of the government. Among thosewho tested positive for the virus are Vice President Ma-soumeh Ebtekar and Deputy Health Minister Iraj Harir-chi. Masoumeh Ebtekar is President Hassan Rouhani’sdeputy for women’s affairs and the highest-ranking wo-man in the government. More than nine other top offi-cials, including members of parliament, senior clericsand military officers, have succumbed to the epidemic.

Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, wasforced to issue an edict in the second week of Marchprohibiting his countrymen from undertaking unneces-sary travel. He warned that more than a million Iranians

were at risk from the virus. In the third week of March,the government ordered temporary release of 85,000prisoners in order to curtail spread of the virus in prisons.To mark the Persian New Year, Nowruz, on March 20,Khamenei pardoned 10,000 prisoners, many of thempolitical detainees. But the government found it difficultto keep people from travelling and crowds from visitingthe bazaars in view of Nowruz.

However, medical experts believe that many moreIranian lives could have been saved if easy access tolife-saving drugs and good hospital care had been avail-able. The draconian sanctions imposed on the country bythe United States have severely hampered the govern-ment’s ability to tackle the epidemic effectively.

President Hassan Rouhani, in a letter to a number ofworld leaders, emphasised that a united global effort wasneeded to combat the pandemic. “No country can man-age this huge dangerous crisis alone, let alone if it hasmany difficulties accessing international financial mar-

Surge in Iran Iran, its health care system crippled by U.S. sanctions, appeals for a global

effort to curtail the spike in coronavirus infection as the death toll and

confirmed cases in the country keep mounting. BY JOHN CHERIAN

PATIENTS infected with the new coronavirus, at a hospital in Tehran, on March 8.

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kets” He urged the international community to come tothe aid of Iran at this critical juncture as the death tollfrom the disease was rising at an alarming rate. “There isno doubt that this is a global crisis. Tehran and Qom arenot far away from Paris, London or New York, and anypolicy that weakens the economic structure and medicalsystem, and limits financial resources for crisis manage-ment, will have direct effects on the fight against theepidemic in other countries…. It is time for the interna-tional community to stand up to the illegal and inhu-mane bullying and not let the unjust U.S. sanctionsagainst Iran affect the fight against the deadly virus,” hestated in the letter.

The U.S. sanctions and policy of “maximum pressure”have, in the past two years, had a disruptive effect onIran’s economy and health care system. Internationalbanks decline to do business with Iran even on loansrelating to the purchase of essential medicines and med-ical devices. The Donald Trump administration has ob-jected, on flimsy grounds, to the despatch ofhumanitarian aid to Iran. Even as the pandemic wasraging, the Trump administration imposed additionalsanctions on Iran in mid March as part of its “maximumpressure campaign” against the country. Influential lob-bying groups close to the Trump administration havebeen working overtime to put pressure on pharmaceut-ical firms to end all business dealings with Iran, includingthose relating to the supply of life-saving drugs.

Tyler Cullis, a U.S. lawyer specialising in sanctionslaw, told The Intercept, a web journal, that these “outsidegroups” had sought to “impose reputational costs oncompanies that engage in lawful and legitimate tradewith Iran, including humanitarian trade”.

I R A N S E E K S E M E R G E N C Y F U N D I N G

Iran has requested a $5-billion loan from the Interna-tional Monetary Fund (IMF) as “emergency funding” tocombat the pandemic. The IMF rejected a similar re-quest made by the Venezuelan government on the pre-text that the government in Caracas lacked internationallegitimacy. Venezuela, too, like Iran, faces unilateral U.S.sanctions, and the cash-strapped Nicolas Maduro gov-ernment is waging an uphill battle against the pandemicwith the help of Cuba and China.

The Iranian government has said that since the re-imposition of U.S. sanctions in 2018, the country has lost$200 billion in foreign exchange income and investment.China has stepped in by sending medical staff and tonnesof medical supplies. China and Russia have called uponthe U.S. to lift the sanctions on Iran. The Chinese ForeignMinistry said that sanctions were hampering Iran’s ef-forts to counter the virus and the delivery of humanit-arian aid. There is a shortage of testing kits and othermedical equipment in the country. Iran until recentlyhad one of the best public health systems in the region.

The Russian Foreign Ministry stated that the sanc-tions were “anti-human” and that they were “a powerfulobstacle to the effective fight against the infection”. Onpaper, humanitarian aid is exempted from U.S. sanctions

but the fact is that companies and banks have stoppedinteracting with Iran, fearing secondary U.S. sanctions.

“Unlawful U.S. sanctions drained Iran’s economicresources, impairing its ability to fight COVID-19,” Iran’sForeign Minister Javad Zarif tweeted. “They literally killinnocents”. Zarif praised the European Union (E.U.) fordespatching humanitarian aid to combat the pandemic.However, he wanted the E.U. to do more and totallysidestep the unilateral U.S. sanctions.

U.S. policy–makers, however, seem to be betting thatthe virus would cause enough death and sow confusion inthe Iranian leadership that would impact decision-mak-ing. The American media are already full of stories aboutalleged infighting in the Iranian government regardingthe handling of the pandemic. General Kenneth McKen-zie, head of the U.S. Central Command responsible forWest Asia, said that because the virus affected the upperechelons of the Iranian leadership, they would find “it alot harder” to make decisions.

Ali Shamkhani, secretary of Iran’s Supreme NationalCouncil, admitted that the virus had had “a strategicimpact” as it had complemented the U.S. strategy offurther isolating Iran. Neighbouring countries have allshut their borders with Iran.

By mid March, Iranian authorities had tested morethan 14 million citizens for the coronavirus. The countryhas a population of 83 million. Health Minister SaeedNamaki said that the screening process helped in thereduction of hospital referrals. Iran has taken stringentmeasures to contain the virus. The government hasordered the shutting down of important shrines in Qom,Mashad and Tehran that are visited by tens of thousandsof pilgrims every day. In all, 234 Indian pilgrims whowere in Iran have tested positive for the virus.

Ayatollah Khamenei issued an order in the secondweek of March for the country’s armed forces to bedeployed to combat the virus. Major General Mo-hammad Bagheri, the chief of staff of Iran’s armed forces,said that volunteers attached to the armed forces wouldcheck every household to identify infected people and setup field hospitals to treat them.

Many leading Iranian clerics have criticised the orderon the closure of mosques. Demonstrations broke out inMashad and Qom. They want the pilgrimage sites to beopened despite the rapid spread of the virus. Millions ofpeople from the region visit the holy Shia sites in Iran andIraq annually. Qom is suspected to have been the epi-centre of the virus in Iran. The first two coronavirusdeaths were reported in the third week of February. TheFatimeh Masumah shrine in Qom is considered a place ofhealing by the Shia faithful. Pilgrims who visited theshrine from Azerbaijan, India, Pakistan and other coun-tries in the region have come down with the virus.

Deputy Health Minister Harirchi, who had testedpositive and is in quarantine, issued an emotional appealto all Iranians to take care of themselves. “This is ademocratic virus, and it does not distinguish between thepoor and the rich, statesman and ordinary citizen. It mayaffect a number of people,” he cautioned. m

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COVER STORY

WHY ARE BATS (CHIROPTERA) A PREFERREDhost for so many zoonotic diseases? Some of their charac-teristics (food choices, colonial or solitary nature, popu-lation structure, ability to fly, seasonal migration anddaily movement patterns, torpor and hibernation, lifespan, roosting behaviours, ability to echolocate, virussusceptibility, and so on) make them exquisitely suitable.Recent observations of outbreaks and epidemics of newlyrecognised human and livestock diseases caused by vir-uses transmitted by various megachiropteran and mi-crochiropteran bats have drawn attention anew to theseremarkable mammals. According to literature, 66 vir-uses have been isolated from bats.

Bats are abundant, diverse, and geographically wide-spread. These mammals provide us with resources, buttheir importance is minimised and many of their popula-tions and species are at risk, even threatened or en-dangered. Whereas other mammals, such as rodents and

carnivores, may possess traits in common with bats, suchas the ability to hibernate, no group of mammals sharesthe full suite of attributes that make bats unique.

Bats evolved early and have changed relatively littlein comparison with mammals of other taxa. Although thefossil record of bat evolution is incomplete, a recentanalysis of 17 nuclear genes dated the origin of chiropter-ans to the Eocene period (52 to 50 million years ago),coincident with a significant rise in global temperature.The correspondingly ancient origins deduced for certainzoonotic viruses maintained in bats suggest a long historyof co-speciation. Viruses that evolved with bats may haveused for replication cellular receptors and biochemicalpathways which are conserved in mammals that evolvedlater and which underwent radiation in later geologicalperiods and, therefore, these conserved cellular receptorsand pathways could enhance the capacity for transmis-sion of bat-associated viruses to other mammals.

Bat connection Basic research into the epidemiology of coronavirus needs to be taken up

on a war footing. BY P.K. RAJAGOPALAN

HEALTH OFFICIALS inspect bats to be confiscated and culled in the wake of thecoronavirus outbreak at a live animal market in Solo, Indonesia, on March 14. (Right) Theconfiscated bats, after sedation, being burnt.

AP

We do not know enough about bat biology and we aredoing too little in terms of bat conservation. There re-main a multitude of questions regarding the role of batsin disease emergence. Of the more than 4,600 recognisedspecies of mammals, 925 (about 20 per cent) are bats.Bats are unique among mammals in their ability to fly.Bats fly daily in pursuit of food, and bats of many speciesfly long distances during seasonal migrations. For ex-ample, bats of the Myotis spp. may travel 200 to 400miles (one mile is 1.6 kilometres) from their winter hi-bernation sites. Mexican free-tailed bats (Tadarida bra-siliensis mexicana) migrate at least 800 miles betweentheir summer caves in Texas and New Mexico and theiroverwintering sites in Mexico (they are otherwise verywidely distributed).

R A B I E S A N D B A T S

In France, rabies virus infections have been associatedwith the migratory routes of Nathusius’ pipistrelle(Pipistrellus nathusii) bats. Silver-haired bats (Lasio-nycteris noctivagans) seasonally range from Alaska,across Canada, and south to Texas. Rabies virus vari-ants associated with silver-haired bats and the EasternPipistrellus (Pipistrellus subflavus) have been identi-fied from numerous locations throughout the geo-graphic range of these bats and the same variants havebeen identified as the cause of the majority of cases ofindigenously acquired human rabies in the UnitedStates and Canada.

Different patterns of migration within the same spe-cies of bat, as occurs with relatively solitary species suchas the silver-haired bat and colonial cave-dwelling spe-

cies such as Mexican free-tailed bats may permit ex-change of novel viruses or virus variants betweenmigrating and non-migrating subpopulations of bats ofother species. A Mexican free-tailed bat infected with arabies virus variant normally associated with hoary bats(Lasiurus cinereous) suggests interspecies transmission.

In the field, rabid bats of one species have beenobserved to be aggressive toward bats of other species.Moreover, Shankar et al, in a study of the phylogeniesof divergence of rabies viruses from bats and terrestrialanimals in Colorado, found that bats of different spe-cies had the same genotypic variants, indicating activeinterspecies transmission of the rabies virus. They con-cluded that, at least in Colorado, animal rabies occursprincipally in bats and that identification of bat-associ-ated variants of rabies viruses in domestic cats, greyfoxes (Urocyon cinereoargenteus), and striped skunks(Mephitis mephitis) demonstrates the importance ofrabies virus spillover from bats to domestic and ter-restrial wild vertebrates. Among Microchiroptera,members from two families, Rhinolophidae and Ves-pertilionidae, are important because some dangerousviruses (Kyasanur forest disease, or KFD, from Rhino-lophus rouxi, Corona from Rhinolophus sinicus andEbola from Miniopterus inflatus) have been isolatedfrom them.

Ever since the implication of the horseshoe bat, Rhino-lophus rouxi, in the epidemiology of KFD—the virus wasisolated from these bats and their tick ectoparasite, calledOrnithodoros, by this writer in 1969 [Ind.J.Med.Res.Res,57(5)]—one would have thought that interest in the role ofbats would have been stimulated. A few articles on the roleof bats have also been published since (“Tracking arbovir-uses”, Frontline, August 4, 2017; “Viral challenge”, Front-line, March 1, 2019; J.Com.Dis, 51(4), 2019). It is reallyunfortunate that present-day researchers in India are notlooking at bats while investigating the recurrence of KFD inJanuary 2019 and the sporadic occurrence of KFD cases indifferent pockets all along the Western Ghats region. Ofcourse, Ebola has not yet become a problem in India, but itcan invade India anytime, just as coronavirus has donenow. The Zika virus almost came to India, but we escaped. Ithink we forgot Zika afterwards, but will rush into actiononly when it comes back. Are we prepared?

It is pertinent to talk about the coronavirus naturalcycle here. Not much is known about the epidemiology.Proactive measures might ensure that the disease doesnot take a toll as it did in China, Italy, Iran, and Spain. Atthe time of writing this, India has about 100+ cases andhas had only two deaths. We do not know what thescientific community is doing, except making statementsabout a potential vaccine which would be ready in acouple of years. But what about basic studies on theepidemic itself? Earlier, I had written about the leadgiven by Ugandan scientists regarding the Zika virus(“Zika control, the Ugandan way”, Frontline, November25, 2016). That was about four years ago. Now we haveanother inspiring story from the investigators of theChinese coronavirus epidemic. Their example is inspir-A

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ing and worth emulating (“How China’s ‘Bat Woman’Hunted Down Viruses from SARS to the NewCoronavirus”, Jane Qiu, Scientific American, March 11,2020) and I quote below:

I N S P I R I N G E X A M P L E

“Beijing—the mysterious patient samples arrived atWuhan Institute of Virology at 7 p.m. on December 30,2019. Moments later, Shi Zhengli’s cell phone rang. Itwas her boss, the institute’s director. The Wuhan Centerfor Disease Control and Prevention had detected a novelcoronavirus in two hospital patients with atypical pneu-monia, and it wanted Shi’s renowned laboratory to in-vestigate. If the finding was confirmed, the new pathogencould pose a serious public health threat—because itbelonged to the same family of bat-borne viruses as theone that caused severe acute respiratory syndrome(SARS), a disease that plagued 8,100 people and killednearly 800 of them between 2002 and 2003. ‘Dropwhatever you are doing and deal with it now,’ she recallsthe director saying.

“Shi—a virologist who is often called China’s ‘batwoman’ by her colleagues because of her virus-huntingexpeditions in bat caves over the past 16 years—walkedout of a conference in Shanghai and hopped on the nexttrain back to Wuhan. ‘I wondered if [the municipalhealth authority] got it wrong,’ she says. ‘I had neverexpected this kind of thing to happen in Wuhan, incentral China.’ Her studies had shown that the southern,subtropical areas of Guangdong, Guangxi and Yunnanhave the greatest risk of coronaviruses jumping to hu-mans from animals—particularly bats, a known reservoirfor many viruses.…

“While Shi’s team at the Chinese Academy of Sciencesinstitute raced to uncover the identity and origin of thecontagion, the mysterious disease spread like wildfire.…The epidemic is one of the worst to afflict the world inrecent decades. Scientists had warned that the rate ofemergence of new infectious diseases is accelerating—especially in developing countries where high densities ofpeople and animals increasingly mingle and moveabout....

“To Shi, her first virus-discovery expedition felt like avacation. On a breezy, sunny spring day in 2004, shejoined an international team of researchers to collectsamples from bat colonies in caves near Nanning, thecapital of Guangxi. Her inaugural cave was typical of theregion: large, rich in limestone columns and—being apopular tourist destination—easily accessible. ‘It wasspellbinding,’ Shi recalls, with milky-white stalactiteshanging from the ceiling like icicles, glistening withmoisture.

“But the holiday like atmosphere soon dissipated.Many bats—including several insect-eating species ofhorseshoe bats that are abundant in southern Asia—roost in deep, narrow caves on steep terrain. Oftenguided by tips from local villagers, Shi and her colleagueshad to hike for hours to potential sites and inch throughtight rock crevasses on their stomach. And the flying

mammals can be elusive. In one frustrating week, theteam explored more than 30 caves and saw only a dozenbats.

“These expeditions were part of the effort to catch theculprit in the SARS outbreak, the first major epidemic ofthe 21st century.… Before SARS, the world had littleinkling of coronaviruses—named because, seen under amicroscope, their spiky surface resembles a crown—saysLinfa Wang, who directs the emerging infectious dis-eases programme at Singapore’s Duke-NUS MedicalSchool. Coronaviruses were mostly known for causingcommon colds. ‘The SARS outbreak was a game changer,’says Wang, whose work on bat-borne coronaviruses got aswift mention in the 2011 Hollywood blockbuster Conta-gion. It was the first time a deadly coronavirus withpandemic potential emerged. This discovery helped tojump-start a global search for animal viruses that couldfind their way into humans….

“In those first virus-hunting months in 2004,whenever Shi’s team located a bat cave, it would put a netat the opening before dusk—and then wait for the noc-turnal creatures to venture out to feed for the night. Oncethe bats were trapped, the researchers took blood andsaliva samples, as well as fecal swabs, often working intothe small hours. After catching up on some sleep, theywould return to the cave in the morning to collect urineand fecal pellets.

“But sample after sample turned up no trace of ge-netic material from coronaviruses. It was a heavy blow.‘Eight months of hard work seemed to have gone downthe drain,’ Shi says. ‘We thought coronaviruses probablydid not like Chinese bats.’ The team was about to give upwhen a research group in a neighbouring lab handed it adiagnostic kit for testing antibodies produced by peoplewith SARS.

“There was no guarantee the test would work for batantibodies, but Shi gave it a go anyway. ‘What did we haveto lose?’ she says. The results exceeded her expectations.Samples from three horseshoe bat species contained an-tibodies against the SARS virus. ‘It was a turning pointfor the project,’ Shi says. The researchers learned that thepresence of the coronavirus in bats was ephemeral andseasonal—but an antibody reaction could last fromweeks to years….

“Shi’s team used the antibody test to narrow downlocations and bat species to pursue in the quest for thesegenomic clues. After roaming mountainous terrain in themajority of China’s dozens of provinces, the researchersturned their attention to one spot: Shitou Cave on theoutskirts of Kunming, the capital of Yunnan—where theyconducted intense sampling during different seasonsthroughout five consecutive years….

“The team discovered hundreds of bat-bornecoronaviruses with incredible genetic diversity.”

When will we have someone like Shi Zhengli to in-spire and enthuse our scientists? They should go and lookfor the source of the virus in bats in the wilderness ofIndia. This is basic. m

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POLITICS

MADHYA PRADESH ChiefMinister Kamal Nath submitted hisresignation to Governor Lalji Tan-don around 1 p.m. on March 20, anhour before the trust vote was sched-uled to be held in the Assembly. Hisresignation put the seal on the waythings started shaping up whenJyotiraditya Scindia wrote to interimCongress president Sonia Gandhi(letter dated March 9) tendering hisresignation from the party. At a pressconference in Bhopal around noon,Kamal Nath announced his decisionto resign and accused the BharatiyaJanata Party (BJP) of “murderingdemocracy”.

The fate of the Kamal Nath gov-ernment was perceived to be hangingin the balance with JyotiradityaScindia’s resignation followed by hisformal induction into the BJP. (So-nia Gandhi expelled him soon afterhe tweeted his resignation letter stat-ing that he was unable to “serve thepeople of his State and country” as amember of the Congress.) Withinhours of these developments onMarch 10, 22 Congress Members ofthe Legislative Assembly, who werekept in seclusion in Bengaluru, senttheir resignations to the Governor,turning the Kamal Nath governmentinto a minority one. (The Congresshad 114 seats in the 230-seat As-sembly, while the BJP had 107.)

Congress leaders had kept up abrave face at media appearances aslong as they could, but on March 20the signs of imminent defeat wereclear and senior leader DigvijayaSingh was reported to have said thatthe government would lose the trust

vote. Jyotiraditya Scindia greeted thenews of Kamal Nath’s resignation,saying it was a “victory for thepeople”.

T R U S T V O T E

There was no trust vote, after all. Inthe days leading up to Kamal Nath’sresignation, however, there wasmuch political activity around thetrust vote. Assembly Speaker N.P.Prajapati said he was unable to goahead with the vote unless he met therebel legislators in person and con-firmed that they had not resignedunder duress. Governor Lalji Tan-don, in a late night correspondenceon March 14, asked Kamal Nath to

prove his government’s majority inthe Assembly. By this time, thestrength of the Congress governmenthad reduced from 114 to 108 becausethe Speaker had accepted the resig-nations of six of the 22 MLAs. OnMarch 16, Kamal Nath, amid claimsthat his government was safe, wroteto the Governor asserting that a floortest “will be undemocratic sinceMLAs are being held captive inBengaluru”.

The BJP filed a petition in theSupreme Court demanding a floortest at the earliest. The Congress ar-gued in court that “the floor test canhappen only when all the electedlawmakers are present in the As-sembly”. It also said that a trust votecould be held only after byelectionsto the constituencies falling vacantwere held. Prajapati, on his part, ad-journed the Assembly’s budget ses-sion, scheduled to commence onMarch 16, until March 26, citing theCOVID-19 outbreak.

The Supreme Court, however,ordered the floor test on March 20,stating that it could appoint an ob-server who would visit the defectorsin Bengaluru and arrange for theirinteraction with the Madhya Pra-desh Speaker through a video confer-ence.

C O N G R E S S E F F O R T S T O A V E R T

C R I S I S

The Congress had deployed its trus-ted troubleshooter in Karnataka,D.K. Shivakumar, to try and defusethe crisis. On March 18, DigvijayaSingh and Shivakumar tried to meetthe 22 MLAs who were holing up in

CHIEF MINISTER Kamal Nath atthe press conference where heannounced his decision to resign,in Bhopal on March 20.

Losing trust The Bharatiya Janata Party is about to recapture power in Madhya

Pradesh as an elected government falls, once again, to political

machinations. BY A N A N D O B H A K T O

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JYOTIRADITYA Scindia’s partingof ways with the Congress is symp-tomatic of much that is wrong withthe grand old party at the nationallevel. That Scindia did not getalong with the Kamal Nath dis-pensation was no secret. The Con-gress leadership turned outsingularly inadequate in handlingthe situation.

Party insiders blame RahulGandhi’s penchant for back-seatdriving for the chaos that marksthe party’s functioning. A seniorCongress leader who has been closeto Sonia Gandhi said: “Rahulwants to control everything frombehind, without coming forwardand taking full responsibility. Helikes to wield control and does noteven listen to Soniaji.” Senior lead-ers say that this tug of war betweenmother and son is proving detri-mental to the party.

It is well known that Scindiawas close to Rahul Gandhi. Butonce Rahul Gandhi resigned afterthe Congress’ Lok Sabha debacle in2019, Scindia found himself alien-ated in the party. Sidelined by theKamal Nath dispensation in hishome State, the ambitious youngleader not unexpectedly looked forgreener pastures beyond the Con-gress.

There have been rumblingsfrom other Congress leaders else-

where in the country—Milind De-ora, Sanjay Nirupam, Sachin Pilot.After the crisis in Madhya Pradesh,Sanjay Nirupam said it was timefor Rahul Gandhi to come forwardand take full control of the partywith a completely new team.

In Rajasthan, there are prob-lems between Chief MinisterAshok Gehlot and Deputy ChiefMinister Sachin Pilot, thoughthings have not reached a breakingpoint there.

P.L. Punia, a senior Congressleader, said: “There is no doubtthat the crisis in Madhya Pradeshis a failure of leadership at alllevels, both at the State and at thenational level. It is unfortunatethat a State which we won displa-cing the BJP after 15 years of itsmisrule, we could not hold for even15 months.”

But he felt that it was primarilyfor the State leadership to take cor-rective measures in time. “I thinkthe top leadership can advise, dir-ect and order, which it did, at leastthree times in the last few months,but eventually it is for the Stateleadership to take action. If theyrefuse to do so, what can the topleadership do?”

But other senior leaders pointto the confusion at the top. “Soniajiis president, but Rahul Gandhi isrunning the show from behind. He

does not listen to her, he does notreach out to senior leaders in timesof crisis, and neither does he have ateam that can manage conflictamong senior leaders. There iscomplete chaos at the top. Priy-ankaji also has stopped interferingbetween them, she busies herselfwith Uttar Pradesh, in whichRahul does not interfere at all. Thatis the situation and nobody can doanything about it,” a senior leadersaid.

Asked why Rahul Gandhi doesnot take full control of the party,another leader said: “Having takena moral high ground once, perhapshe finds it difficult to backtrack.”The dilemma, meanwhile, is cost-ing the party dear. With electionsdue in Bihar soon, this state ofthings has Congress workers wor-ried. Lack of cohesion and planningat the top has already cost the Con-gress dear in the Delhi election.

DE L H I D I S A S T E R

The party appointed as its cam-paign in-charge in Delhi KirtiAzad, who lost his deposit in the2019 Lok Sabha election fromDhanbad in Jharkhand and hadbeen out of Delhi’s political scenefor a long time. His wife was a can-didate and could muster only 2.6per cent of the votes.

The party’s failure at all levelswas reflected in its tally of zero forthe second consecutive time. Itsvote percentage plummeted from9.7 per cent in 2015 to an all-timelow of 4.25 per cent in 2020. In 63of the 66 seats that the Congresscontested, its candidates lost theirdeposits.

A top leader said: “There is nohonest conversation happening atthe top level now. The top leader-ship should sit with State leadersand have open and honest talks.Instead, we see sycophants singpaeans at these meetings, andnothing substantial comes out.”This lack of honest conversationleads to wrong decisions beingtaken, further damaging the party.

Purnima S. Tripathi

AT A PUBLIC meeting in Bhopal in February 2019, Rahul Gandhi, thenthe Congress president, flanked by Jyotiraditya Scindia and Kamal Nath.

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Bengaluru, but they were not al-lowed to meet the latter. Addressingthe media shortly afterwards, Singhclaimed the MLAs were being kepthostage. “BJP MLA Arvind Bhador-iya and an MP are holding them cap-tive. Why can’t I meet my MLAs, myvoters [for the Rajya Sabha elec-tion], my own party people? What isthe BJP doing in between?” he said.

Meanwhile, there was muchspeculation about what was going onbehind the curtains. There was aview that some of the 22 defectingMLAs had resigned to court supportfor Scindia and were taken by sur-prise when their leader decided tojoin the BJP. These MLAs were saidto be in two minds now about follow-ing in Scindia’s footsteps. Congressinsiders even claimed that the BJPhad moved a couple of them to As-sam in order to isolate them further.The story, if true, would reflect thefragile trust between the BJP and itsnew allies in Madhya Pradesh.

The latest version of “OperationLotus”, a sobriquet the BJP’s mach-inations to topple elected govern-ment have earned for the party,began early in March, though thefirst attempt ended in failure. Asenior State leader of the BJP wassaid to have flown out eight MLAs ofthe Congress and its allies to a hotel

in Gurugram. But the Congress wasable to thwart the plan. (Accordingto Congress sources, four of the eightwere Congress MLAs, one was anindependent, and the rest were fromthe Bahujan Samaj Party and theSamajwadi Party.)

Kamal Nath was quick to claimthat his government was immune toattempts at engineering defections.“We have full faith in all our MLAs,we have no doubt about their integ-rity and honesty. The truth of thisblack money earned from corruptionand scams has been revealed and allBJP’s conspiracies will fall flat ontheir face,” he said. Yet, internalsquabbles were reportedly already attheir peak in the State Congress,even if Scindia appeared to be on thesame page with Kamal Nath. “This is100 per cent an attempt to poach[MLAs]. We are united and our gov-ernment is stable. We have countedthe numbers and there is no threat tothe government,” Scindia said as hejoined Kamal Nath in lambasting theBJP’s attempt to usurp power in theState.

A L O S T E L E C T I O N

A N D A B U N G A L O W

It is not clear exactly what changedso quickly for Scindia to desert, aweek later, the party which he had

served for 18 years and which hisfather, Madhavrao, belonged to. Butfor over a year there had beensporadic manifestations of his frus-tration at being sidelined. Accordingto one reading of the development,the final estrangement was triggeredby the last-minute denial of a RajyaSabha berth. The Congress in Mad-hya Pradesh was hopeful of winningtwo of the three Rajya Sabha seats forwhich elections were scheduled. Oneseat was reportedly reserved forDeepak Saxena, who vacated his Ch-hindwara legislative seat for KamalNath after he became Chief Ministerin December 2018. Scindia was ap-parently sure of securing the other.Digvijaya Singh’s emergence as astrong contender for it is said to haveeventually prompted his exit.

However, Frontline has learntfrom reliable sources that the BJPstarted making overtures to Scindiasoon after the Congress’ compre-hensive defeat in the May 2019 gen-eral election. Scindia lost more thanhis family bastion of Guna, a con-stituency that had in the past electedhim for four consecutive terms, inthat election. (He lost it to formeraide Krishna Pal Singh Yadav by over1,25,000 votes.) He also lost the 27,Safdarjung Road bungalow in Luty-ens’ Delhi, which was earlier allotted

FORMER CHIEF MINISTER Shivraj Singh Chouhan (fourth from left, second row) celebrates with his colleagues in theBJP after Kamal Nath’s resignation on March 20.

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to Madhavrao Scindia before it cameto him as an MP and had been hishome for decades. In July 2019, theUnion government declined his re-quest to be allowed to retain the bun-galow, to which he is believed to be“emotionally attached”. Sourcesfrom the Scindia camp and theDigvijaya Singh-Kamal Nath campseparately confirmed to this reporterthat former Finance Minister ArunJaitley reached out to Scindia some-time between May and July 2019.The rewards offered were a Cabinetberth for Scindia, plum postings forMLAs loyal to him in Madhya Pra-desh, and the bungalow.

More than two rounds of parleyswere reportedly held between Scin-dia and Jaitley regarding his futurerole and position within the BJP be-fore Jaitley’s death interrupted theprocess. Yet there were signs that allwas not well. Scindia’s support forthe Modi government’s move to re-voke Article 370 in Kashmir nowseems to be a piece of deliberatepolitical posturing. “I support themove on #JammuAndKashmir &#Ladakh and its full integration intounion of India. Would have been bet-ter if constitutional process had been

followed. No questions could havebeen raised then. Nevertheless, thisis in our country’s interest and I sup-port this,” he said in a tweet.

C O N F L I C T I N G A M B I T I O N S

Meanwhile, the rift between Scindiaand Kamal Nath kept widening. TheKamal Nath camp says an over-am-bitious Scindia had been eyeing tthepost of All India Congress Commit-tee president. The Scindia camp saysthat though Jyotiraditya contributedsignificantly to the Congress’ victoryin the December 2018 election,Digvijaya Singh called the shots inbureaucratic postings and in thenomination of party functionaries.Pankaj Chaturvedi, a Scindia loyalistwho was also the State spokespersonof the Congress, said: “I was in theCongress party along with Scindiajiand I have resigned from the Con-gress party along with Scindiaji. Asper our assessment, as many as10,000 office-bearers of the Con-gress across the State have tenderedresignation to support Scindiaji’s de-cision to join the BJP. The KamalNath government has lost its major-ity and a floor test will prove that aswell. This is a government dictated

by a bundle of arrogance. It has beenblind to the free run of mafias in theState though it claims to be workingto end their impunity. This govern-ment’s only objective is to make asmuch money as possible as it knewfrom the beginning that its days werenumbered.”

Some other Congress leaders andfunctionaries close to Scindia tried tojustify his claim that he was unable toserve the country and the State whilebeing in the Congress. In his letter toSonia Gandhi, Scindia wrote: “Whilemy aim and purpose remain thesame as it has always been from thevery beginning, to serve the people ofmy State and country, I believe I amunable to do this anymore with thisparty.” A Scindia aide told this re-porter: “We won on a loan waiverpromise to the farmers. But we failedto do so within 10 days. It has beenover a year since we assumed power,but we have reneged on our mani-festo agendas.” Leaders loyal toKamal Nath were dismissive. Asenior Madhya Pradesh CongressCommittee functionary, who reques-ted not to be named, said Scindia hadmade up his mind to join the BJP asearly as November 2019. He claimedthat the BJP’s central leadership wasonly delaying the move to time itwith Rahul Gandhi’s resumption ofhis role as Congress president,whenever that happened, in order toscore a point against his leadershipabilities. “We have incontrovertiblereports that he [Scindia] had alertedhis MLAs about a possible defection.We know it for a fact he had toldthem ‘to make the maximum out oftheir office’ as they might have toremit it next year [2020],” said theKamal Nath aide. This person fur-ther claimed that Scindia was offeredthe post of PCC president but heshowed little interest. “His ambi-tions were bigger; he did not want tobe the Deputy Chief Minister or thePCC president. He was offered both[posts] but he insisted that his aideTulsi Silawat be made Kamal Nath’sdeputy. This was turned down byKamal Nath as there were peoplesenior to Silawat in rank and experi-ence and it was next to impossible tosideline them.” m

JYOTIRADITYA SCINDIA with Home Minister Amit Shah in New Delhi onMarch 12, a day after joining the BJP.

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COMMUNALISM

MOHAMMED GULFAM, A 54-year-old bike mechanic, was the lastshopkeeper in his lane who contin-ued working when a 2,000-strongmob chanting “Jai Shri Ram” andcarrying iron rods, batons and stonesrushed towards Bhagirathi Vihar inNorth East Delhi on February 24.Most others had downed their shut-ters by mid afternoon. Gulfam wasrepairing a motorcycle he had prom-ised to deliver that evening.

A man with a distinctly Muslimappearance and salt-and-pepperbeard, Gulfam ran for his life whenhe saw the mob advancing towardshis lane. There was no time to safe-keep the two bikes or anything else inhis shop. He left the bikes behind,including his own parked inside theshop and that of his customer out-side. Even as a lathi struck him on hisankle and another on his right heel,tearing the flesh, he continued run-ning, with the mob closely behind.Finally, as he crossed over to theMuslim-dominated Mustafabad, themob retreated, screaming, “Hindus-tan mein rehna hai to Jai Shri Ramkehna hoga” (If you need to stay inIndia you will have to say Jai ShriRam).

Once safe from the attackers,Gulfam tried to contact his family inShiv Vihar on a mobile phone bor-rowed from a man who had givenhim shelter. His mobile had fallenfrom his kurta pocket as he ran.Worse news awaited him.

His house, too, had been at-tacked by a mob. Although his wife,daughter and son escaped with theirlives, the mob looted his house.Gulfam’s wife had got a few suits

stitched for their daughter’s weddingscheduled for end-May. There wassome jewellery too. All were looted.The mob did not spare even the kit-chen stove, tubelights and fans in hisrented accommodation.

It took Gulfam another 10 days torecover even partially from theshock. On March 7, he went back tohis shop to resume his business. Theowner of the shop premises, a HinduJat, refused to let him in. Gulfam wasnot allowed to even take a picture of

his bike the rioters had burned. In-terestingly, the bike he was painstak-ingly repairing earlier had been leftuntouched. It belonged to a Hinducustomer. The attackers had chosentheir targets methodically.

“I have worked in the locality forclose to 14 years. I have had custom-ers from both religions. Today, how-ever, the owner of the shop says,‘Tum kahin bhi jao. Meri dukaanchhhoro. Mujhe musalman ko nahindeni apni dukaan (go wherever you

Hindutva apartheidAfter the violence, it is economic and social boycott that faces Muslims

who are trying to pick up the fallen pieces of their lives. BY Z I Y A U S S A L A M

MOHAMMED RASHID with his wife outside his burned down house in Ashok Nagar in North East Delhi.

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wish. Leave my shop. I do not want torent out my shop to a Muslim).’”

Gulfam’s landlord in Shiv Vihartoo similarly asked the family to va-cate his house immediately. Sittingat the residence of a man helping outwith relief measures in Mustafabad,Gulfam asks, “Tell me, where do I go?I cannot go home to Shiv Vihar to thehouse I called home for six years be-cause the landlord does not want aMuslim tenant. Same for the shop.”

O M I N O U S F U T U R E

It is social and economic boycott thatstares Muslims in the face after theorganised violence in North EastDelhi which left 53 killed, 450 in-jured, thousands displaced, and sev-eral houses and shops gutted. Thosewho made bold to go back home dis-covered that, except in a few cases,their neighbours either gave themthe cold shoulder or actually askedthem to move out, not ready to riskanother attack by a mob.

“When a Muslim’s house is set onfire, the adjacent houses of Hindustoo are affected,” a man told 20-year-old Junaid, who runs a grocery inShiv Vihar along with pursuing His-tory honours from Delhi University.“The mob looted my shop and house.At the shop, they took away all theexpensive chocolates and colas. Theyleft only the local biscuits and rusks.Now I have been opening the shopfor four days. But there are no cus-tomers. People do not want to buyfrom me,” says Junaid, hoping thatone day when chocolates and colascome back to the shop, so will thecustomers. It will not be an easy task,however, for him. “Little boys andgirls who used to come for a Re.1-toffee are all gone. And the shop-keeper next door advises me to windup, saying, ‘Why are you wastingyour time here? Go somewhere else.’”

R U N N I N G F O R T H E I R L I V E S

Rukhsar ran for her life fromBhagirathi Vihar when violencestruck. A widow, she had set up asmall bangle-colouring unit in herhouse. More than a week later, after acouple of sessions with counsellors inEidgah, she went back home only toreturn in the evening. “As I entered

MORE than three weeks after thetargeted violence in North EastDelhi, graffiti on a wall in KhajuriKhas, one of the affected areas,speaks volumes about the residents’plight. It reads: “Revolution load-ing...who do you call when the po-lice murders”. While it conveys thehelplessness of the common man inthe face of organised violence, it alsospeaks eloquently of loss of faith inthe institution meant to safeguardlives. Indeed, throughout the periodof pogrom, allegations flew in thickand fast of policemen acting in col-lusion with attackers. Nothing haschanged since. The proof comesfrom the lanes of Khajuri Extension,Chand Bagh, Mustafabad, Shiv Vi-har, Jafrabad and Kardampuri,where the residents face what thenoted human rights activist S.R.Darapuri calls “a double jeopardy.First they were attacked and killed.Now the survivors face arrest.” Thelocals allege: “There is not a lane inMuslim-dominated areas fromwhere nobody has been arrested.”

Their faith in the local policeshaken, men in North East Delhitake turns to guard their lanes everynight. After the last prayer of the dayuntil early morning, they stayawake, calling out to each other justin case the man next door dozes off.With their houses looted andburned, 19 mosques either reducedto ashes or damaged, and dozenskilled, what are they seeking to pro-tect? They are guarding against po-licemen, not rioters. Every nightdescends with a pall of fear and fore-boding. Residents allege that po-licemen swoop down withoutwarrants on Muslim men in the 18-25 age group and arrest them.

The arrests started as soon as theviolence abated and came to a haltonly around March 15. While most

of those arrested were releasedwithin a few hours, some are still indetention and their families havelittle clue about what is happeningto them. Residents of Shiv Viharand Mustafabad believe that closeto 3,000 men were picked up bypolicemen. Shabbir Ahmed, a resid-ent of Shiv Vihar, said: “It could beanybody. It could be a man talkingto another on the streetside orsimply a man parking his bike out-side a shop. A policeman, usually incivilian clothes, would point a pistolat the man and ask him to accom-pany him. The men are taken some-times to the local thana. Often theyare sent to a faraway station. Whythey are picked up, nobody knows.Their families are not informed.”

Sajid Ali, a resident of Musta-fabad, who is in food catering, said:“Four or five boys have been pickedup from every lane. They [police]just ask the name and put the boysunder detention. Charges are fab-ricated to implicate the innocent.”

Dilshad Ali, father of ShadabAlam, who was picked up from theSamrat Medical Store where heworked, said the same thing. On theafternoon of February 24, Alam re-turned from a Tablighi Jamaat con-gregation in Qasabpura and thenwent to the medical store. Violencewas raging in some parts of the cityat the time. Ali said: “The chemistshowed the police CCTV footage ofAlam being at work at the phar-macy. But he was still arrested,though the arrest was shown from adifferent location.”

Altaf Hussain, a resident ofMustafabad who was helping outwith the relief exercise, said: “UntilMarch 12, dozens, even hundreds, ofboys were picked up. The modusoperandi was similar. Police wouldcatch boys in the 18-25 age group.

Usually the boys were picked upfrom the roadside or even theirshops. A policeman would just takea boy aside, ask his name, then askhim to sit in the jeep. Most of theboys returned after some five orseven hours and they did not com-plain of violence at the station.Some, however, were sent to an-other police station far away, even asfar as Sunlight Colony which issome 24 kilometres away. In the ini-tial days, the police picked up boyswho had been involved in somestray cases of chain snatching orpicking pockets in the past. Later,they started picking up boys at ran-dom. The police claimed that theboys were detained on the basis ofvideographic evidence. Like, if theboys were seen in a video of the daysof violence, police picked them up.”

That is how Usman Saifi, whostood guard at Nehru Vihar’s Ramtemple in a Muslim-dominated areain Mustafabad, was picked upthough the video showed residentson a vigil to protect the temple. Saifiwas aware that there could be reper-cussions of the attacks on mosquesin the vicinity and decided to patrolthe lane to protect the temple. Hestood, along with others, bothHindus and Muslims, at the begin-ning of the lane to ward off attack-ers. On the night of March 8, aSunday, the police arrested Saifi forrioting and took him to Dayalpurpolice station. The temple’s guardput in a word in Saifi’s defence butthe police were not convinced. Thenthe local Shri Ram Dharmik Samitistepped in and wrote to the magis-trate appealing for his release. “Inour area, Hindus and Muslims havemaintained unity,” the samiti said,hailing Saifi’s role in protecting thetemple. “Kindly release this personon bail. Aapki ati kripa hogi [itwould be extremely kind of you],”the letter read. But even this did notsecure Saifi’s release. Their onlyconsolation was that Saifi was notalone. There were hundreds, if notthousands, of Muslim men in a sim-ilar situation. Among them werepeople whose homes had been

burnt down. They were arrestedwhen they returned home afterspending a few days at a reliefcamp in Eidgah. In one case, aman was picked up because avideo of his house being set onfire went viral, and the man him-self was accused of doing it.

The noted activist and authorHarsh Mander, who helped withrelief work, said: “People are liv-ing in fear. The arrests are all partof intimidation tactics. The ideais that the victims should not seekjustice as equal citizens of thecountry. Make sure no FIRs [firstinformation reports] are filednaming any culprits. That’s whyno guilty person will be nabbed.”

Comparing the situation tothe 2002 Gujarat carnage, HarshMander said: “I would like to saywe should go to the National Hu-man Rights Commission andother similar bodies. But thereare hardly any institutions left forredress today. When the 2002 vi-olence happened we had the me-dia and various rights-protectionbodies that were ready to sup-port. This time who do we turnto?”

Darapuri, however, felt thatlegal redress might provide theanswer. Not mincing words in in-dicting the police, Darapuri,himself a retired policeman, said:“What the police are doing todayamounts to persecution of theMuslim community. Those whosuffered in the violence are beingtargeted. The victims are beingbooked in false cases. It is doubleinjustice. We know about the roleof the police during the riots. Thepolice acted as colluders to sup-port the rioters. The police des-troyed the Farooqia Masjid. Firstthey demolished the CCTV cam-eras, then burned the mosque.The local Hindus issued a state-ment asking why they should beblamed. It was the policemenwho had done it! The way for-ward is these arrests should bethrough courts. The court shouldbe asked to restrict the police

from arbitrary arrests. I know ofthe case of Khalid Saifi, a humanrights activist. He was called bythe police to the Khureji anti-CAA [Citizenship (Amendment)Act] protest site and arrested.Later, we saw his photographswith both his legs heavily band-aged. With such actions of thepolice, it is the Muslims who suf-fer. Earlier the violence tookplace in connivance with the po-lice. Then, too, the police usedweapons not to control the ri-oters but against Muslims seek-ing to defend themselves. Nowthe police are doing what the ri-oters did. They are persecutingthe innocent under the garb ofpolice action. The boys are pickedup and sent to other stations.Then one by one, they are bookedunder various provisions. It isdone at the time of terrorismcases, too.”

Do these arbitrary arrests notopen up the possibility of disaf-fected young people taking to vi-olence in the future?

Darapuri said: “Not every-body is rational. Some youngpeople cannot bear injustice.They can go for retaliation. Whenyou push a community to thewall, what do you expect? Havingsaid this, we should look closelyat the role of Delhi Police. Thepolice are the power arm of thestate. In the case of Delhi, thepolice force reports directly to theUnion Home Minister. AmitShah said at the time of the viol-ence that he was monitoring thesituation from the control room.It was both monitored and direc-ted. The same thing hadhappened in Gujarat. The gentle-man was sitting in the police con-trol room when the pogrom wasgoing on. It is tragic, but if wewant justice we have to fight atvarious levels. We have to go tothe courts.”

To begin with, hundreds ofboys have to be released. “Therecan be no peace without justice,”he said.

Targeted harassment Muslims are made to suffer and are being blamed for the

violence that had been unleashed in a targeted manner.

BY Z I Y A U S S A L A M

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my house, I realised there was noth-ing left. The door, the windows, theclothes, the bangles, all were gone. Ijust sat there. A little later, a few boyscame and said, ‘Mil gayee azaadi?Leave before you are burned alive.’ Ifled.”

For Rukhsar it is a doublewhammy as she owns the house shehas been forced to leave. In her latetwenties, Yasmin Sheikh was a regu-lar at the protest against the Citizen-ship (Amendment) Act (CAA) inMustafabad. She had given up herjob at a clothes showroom to devoteherself to the 24-hour protest. Everyevening, alongwith a couple of hun-dred other women, she raised slo-gans against the CAA, sang songs like“Hum dekhenge” before going homeclose to midnight, having concludedthe sessions with the national an-them. Occasionally, with other pro-testers, Yasmin Sheikh raisedslogans of freedom from hunger, in-equality, and so on.

Tall, fair complexioned, withkohl-lined eyes, she was easily recog-nisable in a crowd of hijab-clad wo-men. That proved to be her undoing.On the day the mob attacked anyMuslim they could lay their handson, Yasmin Sheikh was specially tar-geted. As the men attacked her two-storeyed house in Shri Ram Pur, Yas-min Sheikh ran towards the roof withher mother. This was followed by ob-scene comments and actions. Mov-ing from one roof to another in thecongested colony, Yasmin Sheikh fi-nally got down close to a mosque.

A week later, she went back to thehouse along with a couple of socialactivists. As she went about clearingthe wreckage that had hit her house,a man whom she identifies as “prob-ably a property agent” came up toher. “Leave the premises for now.Nothing will happen if you do. If youstay, the men will come back at nightwith the azaadi rant. Go away. Aftersome time, you can sell the house. Iwill help you,” he said. Not ready toconfront men ready to strip to harassa woman, she went back to a relat-ive’s house in Welcome, some fivekilometres away.

Worse fate awaited Imanuddin,the sole breadwinner of a family of

eight in Shiv Vihar. The day thebloodthirsty mob attacked hiscolony, he shut the door of his housefrom inside and stood against it toguard against anyone breaking in. “Ilocked the door and stood holdingmy children tightly against mychest.” His wife supported his father,a Parkinson’s disease patient, and hismother.

Like many others, Imanuddin’sfamily ran away using the roof andfound refuge in Chaman Park. Threedays later, the family shifted to theEidgah relief camp only to vacate itsoon as his father frequently lostbladder control. “It inconveniencedothers. So I brought my father backhome to Shiv Vihar. But we are allscared. No neighbour comes to offereven a glass of water or say a word ofsympathy. Our lane had only a hand-ful of Muslim families. Most wereHindus. Today, we are the onlyMuslim family back. Nobody talks tous. After sunset I cannot even go out.We spend the night taking turns toguard against any attack. I have livedhere for 15 years. It has never been sobad. People who used to meet andgreet me every day bolt their doors onseeing me now.”

Social and economic boycott ofMuslims is the new reality of NorthEast Delhi. Already a Twitter andFacebook campaign calling for aneconomic boycott of Muslims is un-der way.

“Many Hindus had put up saf-fron flags around the time of the viol-ence. I thought it was to guardthemselves from an attack byMuslims. Now I realise it was asubtle way of telling the attackers

that the houses without a saffron flagbelonged to Muslims and could beattacked, looted or burnt,” says Mo-hammed Rashid, whose house wasburnt down in Ashok Nagar.

Gurbax Singh, a social activistwho helped rescue many womenfrom Chand Bagh, says, “This is all aconcerted attack on the community.An attempt to humiliate them. Firstthey attacked the businesses toweaken them economically. Thenthey attacked their places of worship,planted saffron flags. It was an openprovocation to the community.”

A day later, at the People’sTribunal on Delhi Carnage–Ana-tomy, Arson, Relief and Road Ahead,the jury reiterated this. “The EastDelhi riots were found similar to the1984 anti-Sikh riots, as the minorit-ies have been systematically attackedin a planned manner like in the past.And the state was complicit,” it said.

A speaker added, “It was an at-tack on the identity of Muslims, anattack on their struggle to be treatedas equal citizens of the country.When you attack the business of acommunity and also its places ofworship, you send out a signal that itis not wanted here. In this case, it isworse because social and economicboycott have followed the violence.”

Indeed, even an innocuous press-wali (a woman in the business ofironing clothes) in Gokulpurideemed it wise to hang a small plac-ard of a Hindu goddess by her table,to ward off the Hindutva mob. “I donot accept clothes from Muslim fam-ilies. I do not hate them. They havesuffered a lot. But if Hindu strong-men see me ironing a burqa or theirkurta-pyjama, they will force me toshut my business. I hope youunderstand.”

Displaced Muslims live in fear inNorth East Delhi. As do poorHindus. It is the rule of the thugs andtheir socio-economic boycott ofMuslims that prevails in the area.The writ is: do not purchase anygoods from Muslims or do any busi-ness with them; do not rent out tothem your house or shop; do notmingle with them. Clearly, it isHindutva apartheid that is ruling inthe pogrom-hit capital. m

JUNAID, whose shop and homewere looted.

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COMMUNALISM

MORE than three weeks havelapsed since riots engulfed parts ofNorth East Delhi from February 23to February 25, claiming 54 lives andleaving hundreds scarred. Homes,shops, shrines and schools weretorched with gas cylinders and otherinflammable materials, causing co-lossal economic and social damage.The irony is that even a month afterthe riots, the rebuilding of homesand establishments is yet to seriouslybegin. Not much attention is beingpaid to the deep social divisions thathave opened up after the violence.

Frontline visited some of theworst-affected areas in the secondweek of March, only to find thatpeople displaced by the riots werestill staying either in governmentcamps or with relatives, while somehad packed up and left for their vil-lages. Restoring confidence amongriot survivors does not seem to be apriority for either the State or theCentral government. Efforts to facil-itate the rebuilding of homes and re-habilitation of riot victims are tardy.Both the State and the Central gov-ernments seem reluctant to offergenerous compensation packages,and people say little assistance isforthcoming to help them rebuildtheir homes and lives.

G E N E R A L N E G L E C T

Charred homes and shops remain avisible testament to the recent viol-ence. Frontline spoke to people inthe camps and in the lanes andbylanes of Khajuri Khas Extension,Brijpuri, Shiv Vihar and KarawalNagar, some of the worst affected

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MOIUDDIN, whose house was blasted with a gas cylinder. The daily wageearner and his family have been staying at the Idgah Relief Camp.

The aftermath Lives and livelihoods in North East Delhi remain shattered as riot

survivors struggle to reconstruct burnt homes and rebuild shops and

other businesses. BY T . K . R A J A L A K S H M I

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neighbourhoods, only to hear storiesof disappointment, hopelessness anddespair. People in these generallyimpoverished areas queued up forrelief, both riot survivors and thosenot affected by the riots. Even a soapcosting Rs.10 or a small packet ofbiscuits was received with gratitude.Precautions of social distancing toward off COVID-19 infection madelittle sense.

The riot-affected areas are in-habited mostly by people working inthe unorganised sector, self-em-ployed people and daily wage work-ers: loaders; tailors; bakers; grocers;confectionery owners; painters; car-penters; scrap dealers; welders; rick-shaw pullers; auto drivers; barbers;embroidery workers; wedding bandmusicians; electricians; petty shop-keepers who sold mobiles, electricaland electronic equipment, hosieryand garments; petty salesmen;mechanics and people working inauto service centres. The slightly bet-ter off among them, not more than adozen in all, were owners of two-wheeler showrooms, auto servicecentres, footwear stores or medicalshops. Frontline met two practition-ers of Ayurveda, too, one in Shiv Vi-har and the other in KhajuriExtension, whose shops had beenlooted and burnt.

Congested roads, narrow lanes,dwellings and establishmentsheaped together cheek by jowl,garbage mounds and open drainstold a tale of neglect of the govern-ment in Delhi’s underbelly, whichcontributes substantially to the eco-nomy. A Jan Swasthya Abhiyan teamthat had set up medical camps forriot victims found there was noprimary health care centre or a mo-halla clinic in densely populatedMustafabad. Volunteers and doctorsof the team found themselves attend-ing to the general population forcommon ailments.

Victims spoke to Frontline oflosses ranging from Rs.1 lakh toRs.15 lakh, of homes that had to bebuilt from scratch, vehicles that hadbeen burnt, and production unitssuch as bakeries that had been des-troyed. People who had to flee theirhomes suddenly in the night could

not collect the money they had athome. Some showed burnt remnantsof cash in their torched homes. Some125 motorcycles were recovered froma drain that cut across the entirearea.

In Brijpuri, a footwear store andan auto showroom were ransackedand burnt. Haji Ajmeri, the owner ofthe four-and-a-half-floor high FaizalFootwear, the biggest footwearshowroom in the area, was in deepshock. He refused to leave his shopand slept there amid the charred in-teriors. “We had all the brands. I havelost close to Rs.1.75 crore worth ofgoods in the shop and the godown,which was on the top floors,” he toldFrontline. Mohammad Zaid who ransome coaching centres in the Hindu-dominated areas of Brijpuri andYamuna Vihar said that people wereadvising him to relocate. “There is afear of economic and social boycottnow,” he said.

A F R A I D T O R E T U R N

Most of the Hindus and Muslims inShiv Vihar, the worst affected in theriots, had migrated from parts of Ut-tar Pradesh. Most of those who fledtheir homes in this neighbourhoodin the intervening night of February23 and 24 sought shelter in thenearby Muslim-dominated Musta-fabad, where Haji Yunus of the AamAadmi Party defeated Jagdish Pra-dhan, the sitting MLA of the Bhar-atiya Janata Party, with a decisivemargin. Mustafabad stands out as adensely populated Muslim-domin-ated area surrounded by the “mixedlocalities” of Bhagirath Vihar, ShivVihar and Karawal Nagar, whereHindus are numerically stronger. Afew lanes in Shiv Vihar that werehome to Muslims were targeted inthe riots, and so were Muslim homesand shops in “mixed community”lanes. Survivors spoke of the “dangai”[rioters] wreaking havoc on the “Pa-chees Foota” (25-foot road), theNaala Road (road along the drain)and the lanes connecting these roadsas the main areas of attack.

Phases 6 and 7 of Shiv Vihar werethe worst affected. Witnesses toldFrontline that the rioters gatherednear a cremation ground at the

Naala and targeted Muslim homesone by one. In lanes number 20 and21, almost all the Muslim dwellingswere attacked. Lanes 13, 14 and 23were also attacked. Shops owned byHindus but rented out to Muslims,displaying Muslim names, werelooted and burnt. The tenants wereunsure of receiving any compensa-tion. At a people’s tribunal organisedby Anhad, Aman Biradari and othersin Delhi, a saree shop seller namedNaimuddin from Maujpur said hehad suffered a loss of up to Rs.17lakh. “It all happened because ofKapil Mishra,” he said.

‘ E V E R Y B O D Y K N O W S ’

“The rioters came from KarawalNagar, Dayalpur, Gangapur andJohripur. Some may have come frombeyond Loni [in Uttar Pradesh],which is 15 to 20 minutes from hereby road,” said a young man in ShivVihar. He and his friends mentionedJagdish Pradhan, former BJP MLAfrom Mustafabad, and Nand KishoreGujjar, sitting MLA from Loni, as theinstigators.

Two shops owned by Hinduswere burnt, one belonging to a res-taurant owner and the other a gro-cery next to the Medina Masjid. The

AT THE IDGAH RELIEF CAMP

in Mustafabad.

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restaurant owner, Ram Prakash, saidhe had lost goods worth Rs.14 lakh. Adoctor, Amar Pal Singh, said hisclinic, owned by a Muslim, wasburnt. “I hope I will get some com-pensation,” he said. Some better-offbusinessmen in Shiv Vihar, such asMohammad Arif, suffered biggerlosses. His year-old four-floor ready-made garment showroom was ran-sacked and burnt. He has receivedonly Rs.25,000 as compensation. Heclaimed he had incurred losses run-ning into Rs.15 to 20 lakh. “It startedfrom lane number 20. My son was inthe shop. He told me the shutter wasbeing broken. I told him to escapefrom the side entrance,” he said.“They came from across the drain.”

According to several eyewit-nesses, the rioters came from the sideof the drain next to the cremationground. They were stopped byMuslim men, and on February 24also by paramilitary soldiers. But thepeace was short-lived, and manypeople fled because they had no pro-tection. On February 25, there wasno one to stop the rioters. At 1 a.m.the “force” arrived and escorted thosewho had stayed back to ChamanPark. “Even though it is less than akilometre from here, it felt like fivekilometres that day,” said Arif.

For four to five days, those whofled from Shiv Vihar stayed with

people who were from their com-munity but whom they had notknown before. Help in the form ofrations and clothes were brought byseveral groups and individuals whoreached out to riot victims, supple-menting the efforts of the Delhi gov-ernment. A Delhi solidarity andrehabilitation committee wasformed, which included prominentindividuals like Wajahat Habibul-lah, Brinda Karat and HarshMander, with the Delhi unit of theCommunist Party of India (Marxist)as a nodal office for coordinating re-lief. Displaced families were re-settled in a camp in Mustafabad withthe joint efforts of the Delhi govern-ment and the Waqf Board. Thesewere the families of people who didnot have relatives in the city and whowere mainly from the lower middleand working-class sections.

Asif, whose pedal rickshaw wasburnt in lane number 17 in Shiv Vi-har, is afraid to return. Father tothree young motherless daughters(the eldest, Arsala, is 12), Asif fearsfor his family’s safety. “We did not seewho the rioters were. We left at 9:30p.m. on February 25 and hid at Med-ina Masjid. It was only in the morn-ing that we were taken to ChamanPark, and now we are here,” he said.Asif came to Delhi, which he hasmade his home, from Gujarat eightyears ago. Like many others in ShivVihar, he stayed on rent. His land-lord was also a Muslim.

E C O N O M I C H A V O C

Moiuddin’s two-roomed dwelling inShiv Vihar was blasted with a gascylinder. He said his was the smallestdwelling in Shiv Vihar and he wouldrequire over Rs.2 lakh to rebuild itand restart his provision shop. Hesaid that he was fearful that the po-lice would pick him up, as they hadbeen randomly arresting peoplefrom the area. “I went back to startrebuilding my house when somepeople in civil dress came, showedme a video, asked me to identifysome people. They took my photo-graph too. I am afraid of even step-ping out alone to answer nature’scall,” he said. His fears were not un-founded. Farah, a young woman

with four children, said her husband,Dilshad, had been picked up by thepolice and she did not know hiswhereabouts.

In the same camp was a 30-year-old daily wager, Imran, from lanenumber 14. He had a bandage on hishead. “Forty nine stitches,” he said,pointing to the bandage. He showeda photograph of his scalp with deepcuts, which had been stitched up. Hewas attacked by a mob as he returnedhome on February 24. He wasamong the few who survived. “I don’tfeel safe. I have two children, a wifeand an old mother,” he said. All theMuslim families in that lane hadpacked up and left. Imran said heearned around Rs.300-350 a day buthe did not have work on all days ofthe month. With the riots, things hadbecome even more uncertain.

Thirty-three-year-old Jamalud-din of House No. 508 in lane number10 was the co-owner of a home-basedbakery unit. He and his three broth-ers were in their village for a weddingwhen his Hindu neighbour, Billu,phoned him to say that his house-cum-factory unit had been brokeninto. Jamaluddin rushed back on hisBullet motorcycle and reached ShivVihar on the evening of February 27.He was close to his home when hewas attacked and killed. The 10-year-old baking unit was looted and ma-chine parts were stolen. The familywas yet to come to terms with thetragedy. While Billu aggressively as-serted that “outsiders” were involved,Jamaluddin’s Muslim neighboursdisagreed: “Local residents were in-volved. How would outsidersidentify the Muslim homes?”Jamaluddin’s younger brother,Kamaluddin, told Frontline thatthey were all daily wagers earlier andhad set up the bakery unit 10 yearsago. Muslim homes were easily iden-tifiable as many had name plates ortiles with Quranic inscriptions onthem. Some even wrote “Jai ShriRam” on their doors to avoid gettingattacked.

There were close to 30 bakerymanufacturing units in Shiv Vihar,which supplied to shops and indi-vidual retailers. All those directlyand indirectly dependent on these

F RONT L I N E . A P R I L 1 0 , 2 0 2 0 54

units have suffered loss of livelihood.Most of the Hindus in the area be-longed to the Pal community (her-ders) and were engaged in class fourgovernment jobs. The rioters, it wasbelieved, came from nearby KarawalNagar and Johripur and Loni andBulandshahr in Uttar Pradesh. Themajority were teenagers and men intheir early twenties. Hindu estab-lishments and homes at the Shiv Vi-har Tiraaha (a junction of threeroads) were also burnt. This placewas known as the “border”, demarc-ating Muslim-dominated Musta-fabad from Shiv Vihar and KarawalNagar, both dominated by Hindus.The roughly 8-km stretch affected byriots had several temples andmosques. No damage to any templein Muslim residential areas was re-ported.

The riots caused widespread eco-nomic havoc. In lane number 19, 12Muslim homes needed to be rebuiltentirely. On an average, losses run upto Rs.14 lakh for every house that waslooted and burnt. The government,however, announced a compensa-tion of only Rs.5 lakh for completelydamaged houses. Tenants who hadsuffered damage would get Rs.1 lakh,while landlords would get Rs.4 lakh.The amount is pathetically inad-equate, especially when victims havealso lost all earnings.

Government-appointed and in-dependent surveyors are trying to es-timate the damage. Irfan, ashop-owner in Khajuri Khas Exten-sion, said: “We cannot leave the siteof damage as the enumerators comehere asking for details. Everyonenotes down something or the other,but funds for reconstruction are notbeing released. What is there toverify? It’s all there, visible to theopen eye.”

For damage to commercial prop-erties, the compensation is Rs.5 lakh.For all families who suffered damageto household goods, an immediaterelief of Rs.25,000 was announced.But many riot survivors told Front-line that they had not received eventhat. The only building where recon-struction work had started on a warfooting was Arun Modern School inBrijpuri, owned by a former Con-

gress legislator. The compensation tofamilies that lost an adult to the riotswas Rs.10 lakh, which many felt wasinadequate. Most adults who werekilled were young men in their twen-ties and thirties and were breadwin-ners for their families.

Irfan’s Hindu acquaintances,Mukesh and Ishwar Chand, arguedthat for “every action, there would bea reaction”. Ishwar Chand, whoclaimed to have witnessedeverything, said that “stoning beganfrom lane numbers 4 and 5” and win-dows of Hindu establishments, in-cluding Mohan Nursing Home innearby Yamuna Vihar, were broken.“Why didn’t you intervene when ourshops were being burnt,” asked Irfan,to which Ishwar Chand had no an-swer. Other eyewitnesses said thatMuslims tried to prevent the riotersfrom entering the lanes and stoneswere thrown in self-defence. No shopowned by a Hindu suffered any dam-age in this area, barring one BalajiSweets. In lane number 5, Mo-hammad Ilyas’ five-floor house fromwhere he operated a boutique wasburnt.

A R S O N A N D L O O T

Hurma, a student at Maulana AzadMedical College, said her father soldreadymade garments and the familyhad a godown in their house. OnFebruary 24, the family fled Shiv Vi-har, leaving everything behind. “Wehave been in the camp for 22 daysnow,” said Hurma’s mother,Naseem, unsure of what lay ahead.

“I have lived in Old Delhi all mylife, near the Sheesh Mahal,” saidHasmuda, a woman in her seventies.“I shifted to Shiv Vihar 15 years ago. Iregret it now. We sold everything tosettle here. We have to go back, butthe people look at us with anger. I amnot blaming anyone as I have to liveand die among them only. My Hinduneighbours call me Amma, but nonehave bothered to inquire about mywhereabouts,” she said with a smile.

Shabnam, a tenant from lanenumber 21, was determined not toreturn. “They burnt my husband’sauto-rickshaw worth Rs.5 lakh. Theylooted everything but did not touchthe house as it belonged to a Hindu,”

she said. Shabnam, her husband,Ikramuddin, and their little son fledwith four other families to house No.339, but the rioters burnt it. Severalbikes were set on fire. No compensa-tion has been announced for these,though some compensation has beendeclared for damaged rickshaws.

Nasiruddin had taken a loan tobuy a house in Shiv Vihar. Heshowed burnt notes of Rs.500, cashthat had been kept at home. Somefamilies in lane number 18 said theirlivestock had been stolen.

Similar incidents of damage andloot took place on the 33-foot road inKarawal Nagar, formerly represen-ted by the BJP’s Kapil Mishra. TheGokulpuri market of tyres, vehiclerepair shops and tarpaulin was gut-ted along with a dozen tractors thatwere parked for repair. The lossesrun into crores of rupees. In Garhi-mendu village near Bhajanpura, 25to 30 homes were looted and burnt.

In Khajuri Khas area, nearly 200shops and homes were burnt. Therioters knew whom to target. Lanenumbers 4, 5 and 29 were targeted asthey had Muslim homes. A shop withthe board “Maharashtra Band”,owned by Md Sharif, was looted—the instruments and outfits of thewedding band players were takenaway—and burnt. Two others sellingthe same things were burnt andlooted. Sharif said that they hadbrought down the shutters of theshops on February 24. “We soughtrefuge in Bihari Masjid and inChandu Nagar in the safety of ourcommunity members,” he said.

G H E T T O S A N D G A T E S

The violence ripped apart social andeconomic relationships between thetwo communities. Muslims who hadlived for more than three decades inmixed localities were afraid of re-turning as they were aware that someof their Hindu neighbours were com-plicit in the riots. Some Hindus hadalso sheltered their Muslim neigh-bours and helped them to escape, butsuch instances were few. In all theareas revisited by Frontline, resid-ents were installing iron gates at theentrance of every lane, reflecting thenew fears. m

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COMMUNALISM

IN a blatant display of oppressivestate propaganda, the YogiAdityanath-led Bharatiya JanataParty (BJP) government in UttarPradesh has put up 100 posters atbusy intersections in the capital Luc-know which contain the photo-graphs and addresses of 60 peoplewho were served recovery notices forallegedly indulging in violence dur-ing the anti-Citizenship (Amend-ment) Act (CAA) protests. Theyinclude civil society activists andmembers of the Muslim community;many of them had nothing to do withthe protests, which the governmentcites as the provocation for its ex-tralegal move. In fact, the protestscame up spontaneously in differentparts of the country, including UttarPradesh, in December last year in thewake of the CAA. In the police ex-cesses that followed, the State wit-nessed the detention of 1,640persons, including minors, and theregistration of 450 cases, 27 of theseunder the Gangster Act.

Rajeev Yadav of Rihai Manch,which has collated data on police ex-cesses, stated that at least 23 peoplehad been killed in these incidents.Samajwadi Party (S.P.) presidentand former Uttar Pradesh ChiefMinister Akhilesh Yadav also asser-ted that almost all the deaths werefrom police bullets and that by put-ting up these posters, the Uttar Pra-desh administration and the policehad demonised the very victims ofviolence.

The posters played a role in de-fining the “enemy of the State” as a

“Muslim” or anyone who opposedthe government’s policies. It furthersought to implant this “enemy of theState” impression in the minds of thepublic which would pass them dailyon the streets, on their way to work orschool. This fulfilled the dual pur-pose of strengthening the mobilisa-tion of hatred against the “enemy” bythe many Hindutva-oriented outfitsof the Sangh Parivar on the one handand the setting up of a public mech-anism to intimidate those opposingthe CAA on the other. The chain im-pact of all this, argued many activistsof the Sangh Parivar, would also in-fluence many with anti-CAA posi-tions to withdraw their support tothe protesters for fear of getting pen-alised and humiliated like them.

E X T R A L E G A L M O V E

The blatant extralegal nature of thisgovernment operation was high-lighted at various levels from DayOne. Several legal experts, politi-

cians and former bureaucrats poin-ted out that there was no law or rulein Indian criminal procedures orState laws supporting this kind ofaction. The momentum of this de-bate resulted in the suo motu cognis-ance of the matter by the AllahabadHigh Court.

On March 8, Chief JusticeGovind Mathur and Justice RameshSinha convened a special hearingand ordered the Yogi Adityanathgovernment to take the postersdown. But the State government per-sisted with its plans and refused tocomply with the court order. It notonly appealed against the HighCourt dictum in the Supreme Courtbut also issued an ordinance invok-ing the Gangster Act against thosewho were portrayed in the posters.

Sources in the State bureaucracyrevealed that several plans were fren-etically being advanced to overcomethe High Court order immediatelyafter it came out. The Gangster Actwas finally identified as the most po-tent instrument. However, doubtsstill persist in the bureaucracywhether this move would stand up tolegal scrutiny. Indications are thatthe Chief Minister has personallydirected the Legal and Home depart-ments to continue efforts to rustle upa proper legal defence for its adven-turist exercise.

Even as these efforts are on, theordeal of those named and shamed inthe posters continues. By promin-ently exhibiting the details of theseindividuals, the government has notonly painted them as criminals but

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CHIEF MINISTER YogiAdityanath. His government haspassed an ordinance that sanctionsclaim of damages from protesters.

Dog-whistle politics The Yogi Adityanath government in Uttar Pradesh has resorted to

naming and shaming activists in the State in order to further its plan to

delegitimise dissent. BY D I V Y A T R I V E D I AND V E N K I T E S H R A M A K R I S H N A N

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also exposed them to danger.Hindutva vigilantes and des-peradoes among them could welltake the government exercise as asignal to take the law into their ownhands and “punish” those seen in theposters. On one poster, underHazratganj thana, those showcasedinclude activist Sadaf Jafar, retiredIndian Police Service officer S.R.Darapuri, Shia cleric Maulana SaifAbbas, human rights defender Mo-hammed Shoaib, theatre personalityDeepak Kabir and several ordinaryMuslim men. The State claimsRs.64, 37, 637 collectively as dam-ages from 28 of them.

In Muzaffarnagar, notices weresent to 53 Muslims for a recovery ofRs.23.41 lakh. “When a person is so-cial or political, they find the courageto fight injustice. But these are ordin-ary non-political people and are eas-ily scared,” Usman Ahmad of theRashtriya Lok Dal told Frontline.Apparently, on December 20, 2019,a day of Jumma, or Friday, prayer,the Muslims of Meenakshi Chowk, apredominantly Muslim neighbour-hood, had gathered for prayers. Itwas only after BJP Member of Par-liament Sanjeev Balyan visited thelocal police station and demandedaction that the police targeted thearea and blamed its people for riot-ing.

“Actually, the administration iswary of pursuing the cases as theyknow they are without any substanceand they were asking people to signnotes stating they were not involvedin the violence,” said an activist, oncondition of anonymity.

In Lucknow, 15 boys were pickedup from Parivartan Chowk, which isclose to a protest site, while they weresleeping at night. They were brutallybeaten up in police custody. Theywere daily-wage labourers workingin eateries around the area. Some ofthem, who hailed from Assam andWest Bengal, were branded asBangladeshis by the administration,thereby justifying their arrest. It is tobe noted that Bangladeshi Muslimswere being designated as “enemies ofthe state” under the right-wingregime.

By generalising false claims

about the entire Muslim com-munity—that its members destroyedpublic property, were troublemakersor anti-nationals—the YogiAdityanath government is trying toexploit pre-existing biases againstthe minority and further entrenchthe hatred against them. This trope isnot very different from what wasdone in Germany under Hitler.

G E N E R A L I S I N G F A L S E C L A I M S

In fact, posters were the Nazis’ fa-vourite mode of hate propaganda.Posters across Germany depictedAdolf Hitler as an angelic hero andJews as ugly and reprehensible,which became a precursor to the Fi-nal Solution. In a similar pattern, inIndia, too, the Hindu Rashtra is glor-ified, and its leaders like Prime Min-ister Narendra Modi and YogiAdityanath are provided cult statuswhile Muslims and their supportersare systematically demonised. Theseposters are part of the propagandathat extends from rewriting schooltextbooks to producing films thatpromoted stereotypes.

Narrating her ordeal once shewas arrested, Sadaf Jafar said she feltlike a Jew in Hitler’s Germany. Shewas picked up while making a videoof the police turning a blind eye toSangh Parivar rioters. Thereafter,she was slapped, abused with com-munal slurs and kicked in the abdo-men by a policeman. “It almost felt asif they wanted to kick the womb thatbegets Muslim children,” she toldFrontline. The doctors at the hos-pital made communal remarks, ig-nored her bruises and sent her backto custody after alleging that she wasdoing natak (drama) of feigning ill-ness so she could lie down in thecomfort of a hospital.

Sadaf Jafar is known in her fam-ily circle as someone who will, nomatter the time or place, pick up ac-cident victims and transport them tohospital for treatment. She said it didnot matter to the current dispensa-tion whether she was a practisingMuslim or not, it simply connectedher with her immediate identity ofbeing a Muslim. “I am everythingthat Yogi and his kind detest. I am a

A BILLBOARD installed by the authorities displaying pictures, names andaddresses of people accused of vandalism during protests in December againstthe CAA, in Lucknow on March 9.

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Muslim, a woman, a firm believer inthe Constitution and the rule of lawand ask uncomfortable questions tothe government. They simply cannottolerate this combination,” she said.She was released on bail after nearly20 days as the police could not bringanything against her in a court. Shesaid she would challenge the allega-tions against her in every legal av-enue available and not getintimidated by the scare tactics.

S.R. Darapuri, also named in theposters, was picked up by the UttarPradesh police on December 20while he was still under house arrestafter he posted on Facebook a photo-graph of himself holding a placard“Save Citizenship” outside his house.

“At 11 in the morning, the policecalled me down and took me to athana. But the arrest was shownfrom some other place at 7 in theevening. My detention was totally il-legal. They said they had arrested 39people and I was the 40th. They didnot give me food or a blanket, anddidn’t let me call a lawyer or recordmy statement. The magistrate alsodid not listen to me and sent me to 14days’ judicial custody. Apart fromMohammed Shoaib, who is an ad-vocate, and I, everybody else there

was badly beaten. The Muslims werebeaten twice. Many of them werepicked up randomly from shops, res-taurants, streets and homes. TheRSS [Rashtriya SwayamsewakSangh] cadre, who were the actualrioters, were all released once some-body called from the BJP office. I sawfirst-hand the shocking communal-isation of the police that has takenplace,” he told Frontline. Under theYogi Adityanath government therewas an open communal and auto-cratic culture that had come to thefore, he added. He was being tar-geted for raising his voice againstfake encounters in the State, whichran into thousands, he said.

“They have nothing [to prove]against me. I have not given a call forany protest. There is nothing on mysocial media handles wherein I haveinstigated agitators. In fact, my postcondemned the violence of Decem-ber 19. I was not named in the FIR[first information report] or firststatement of the complainant. Myname was added subsequently. It is awell-planned operation to terroriseand dishonour me and to shut mymouth as a human rights activist. Iam an eyesore for some policemen. Iam the vice president of the PUCL

[People’s Union for Civil Liberties]in Uttar Pradesh, which had filed aPIL [public interest litigation] peti-tion in the Supreme Court in 2018asking for an SIT [special investiga-tion team] to be constituted to probethe encounters,” he said.

P O L I C E P E R S E C U T I O N

Police persecution in Uttar Pradeshhas become an ongoing and perman-ent ritual in the past few months aspeople, especially Muslims, are ran-domly picked up on a daily basis. Forinstance, the police detained twopeople who had come to deliver foodto the women sitting on the GhantaGhar protest site in Lucknow andtook the car in which they came.When the women asked the policewhat their fault was, they were told tostop videorecording the detention.

Countering these posters, theCongress and the S.P. also put upposters of BJP legislators and Minis-ters charged with grievous offences,amongst them rape accused KuldeepSengar, Chief Minister YogiAdityanath, Keshav Prasad Maurya,Radha Mohan Das Agarwal, Muzaf-farnagar riots-accused Sangeet Som,Sanjeev Balyan, Umesh Malik,Suresh Rana and Sadhvi Pragya.They asked when a recovery wouldbe made from these people. Congressworkers Ashwani Yadav and Sud-hanshu Bajpai were arrested for thisand reportedly beaten up in custody.

Justifying the harsh measure, theChief Minister said in the State As-sembly that these individuals weremore dangerous than the coronavirus, which was causing a pandemicacross the globe. Talking to Front-line, Sadaf Jafar asked whether bymaking such statements the ChiefMinister intended to throw them tothe wolves.

“We are sitting on a ticking timebomb,” she said. By mentioning theiraddresses all over the city, the statehad exposed their family members tothe risk of being attacked. Question-ing the justification for such an act,Sadaf Jafar asked whether the Mum-bai terror attack convict AjmalKasab’s parents, too, had been killedfor his crime.

To the activists, given the polit-

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ical climate of the country and thespate of mob lynchings which hasgone on with impunity ever since theBJP came to power, the risk of beinglynched is very real. Student activistsUmar Khalid and Kanhaiya Kumarbarely managed to escape murder-ous attacks on them after a section ofthe television media branded themenemies of the state. In such cases,the regime need not send an assassin,but all the recipients of the mediamessage become potential assassins,doing the bidding of the state. Thesewere not empty polemics but thatwhich enraged the masses against acommunity and specific individualsand in the end justified whatever be-fell them, including arrests, murdersand lynchings. The hate propagandawas turning India into an aggressivepolity with violence as the norm in away that the authorities could neverbe held responsible for them, theysaid.

According to the procedure inlaw, a crime has to be proven beforeany punitive measures can be taken.“We are not convicted yet, only ac-cused. First prove our crime, other-wise how is it that you are penalisingus?” Sadaf Jafar asked.

On March 8, a Sunday, a bench ofthe Allahabad High Court compris-ing Chief Justice Govind Mathur andJustice Ramesh Sinha convened a

special hearing and took suo motucognisance of the posters andordered the Yogi Adityanath govern-ment to take them down. It said thatthe state action was an “unwarrantedinterference in privacy of people”and violated Article 21 of the Consti-tution. The Uttar Pradesh govern-ment challenged this order in theSupreme Court. On March 12, a va-cation bench of the Supreme Courtcomprising Justices U.U. Lalit andAniruddha Bose told the State gov-ernment that action should be takenagainst the rioters but as of nowthere was no law that backed suchstate action. They did not stay theHigh Court order but referred thematter to a larger Supreme Courtbench.

T H E O R D I N A N C E R O U T E

The very next day, the Uttar PradeshCabinet approved the Uttar PradeshRecovery of Damage to Public Prop-erties Ordinance, 2020, which sanc-tioned such state action. Section19(2) of the ordinance states: “Assoon as the order of recovery fordamage has been passed the prop-erty of the respondent to be attached,the authorities shall be directed topublish the name, address along withphotograph with a warning for pub-lic at large not to purchase propertyattached.” According to the ordin-

ance, a claims tribunal will be set upand its decision will be final, whichcannot be challenged in any court.

However, the ordinance itselfwas challenged through a PIL peti-tion in the Allahabad High Court.According to Darapuri, the ordin-ance cannot be applied to their casewith retrospective effect and theywould challenge it in a court of law.Meanwhile, given the pending hear-ing in the Supreme Court, the Alla-habad High Court extended the timegiven to the Uttar Pradesh govern-ment to file a compliance report onApril 10.

It is an illegal process in its en-tirety, said Rajeev Yadav. So far, withthe exception of a cheque for Rs.5lakh that community members hadhanded over to the authorities in Bu-landshahr, no recovery of any prop-erty across the State had beeninitiated, he told Frontline. “Com-pensation is a state responsibility,they cannot pass it on to individuals.This defies common sense and willnot hold when challenged in a courtof law. They want to crush theprotests against the CAA at any cost,”he said.

Despite repressive measures, theCAA protests across Uttar Pradeshshowed no signs of dissipating. Thegovernment needed effective ways tocurb them and influence the atti-tudes of people towards the CAA andit hoped the posters would help buildconsensus around delegitimisingdissent.

In Mein Kampf, Hitler wrotethat to achieve its purpose, propa-ganda must “be limited to a very fewpoints and must harp on these inslogans until the last member of thepublic understands what you wanthim to understand by your slogan. Assoon as you sacrifice this slogan andtry to be many-sided, the effect willpiddle away.” The Sangh Parivar hasalready penetrated most of the In-dian media, commands the digitalmedia space, controls and spreadsdisinformation via social media plat-forms and effectively uses mass me-dia such as WhatsApp and TikTok.The posters are one more mediumthat simplifies its task in the propa-ganda machinery. m

A PROTEST against the CAA and the NRC near the Ghantaghar in Lucknowon January 20.

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WILDLIFE

BREATHTAKING

BOTSWANAA 700-kilometre drive through protected wildlife areas of the

landlocked country in southern Africa provides a window to the

varied range of animals there, perhaps like nowhere else in Africa.

Text by A.J.T. JOHNSINGH and S. MURALI. Photographs by A.J.T. JOHNSINGH

59 F RONT L I N E . A P R I L 1 0 , 2 0 2 0

THE red hot ball of the setting sun was sliding behindan umbrella thorn tree. It was August 31, 2019. We, 12wildlife enthusiasts from India, were standing in line atthe immigration office in Kazangula, Zimbabwe, waitingto get our visa to enter Botswana as we had planned tospend 15 days visiting different wildlife areas in the coun-try. Earlier in the day, we made a short visit to the VictoriaFalls National Park in Zimbabwe and, while a femalebushbuck (Tragelaphua scriptus) resting amidst thebushes watched us, paid homage to the statue of theexplorer and missionary Dr David Livingston. Later,while waiting for some of our colleagues to return fromthe helicopter ride they had taken to see the falls and thesurrounding landscape from the air, we observed threewarthogs (Phacochoreus africanus) feeding on tendergrass and rooting for tubers on bended knees near thehelipad. It is Africa’s only pig species and is active duringthe day. After we got the visa, we were allowed to enterBotswana only after we had stepped on a disinfectantmat, which is a precaution the government of Botswanatakes to control the spread of foot-and-mouth disease tocattle. After mining and wildlife tourism, beef exportcontributes significantly to the country’s economy.

Our night halt was in Kwalape Safari Lodge inKasane. The lodge is close to the Chobe National Parkand is surrounded by an electric fence to keep animalsaway. In the morning, we observed that the most com-mon visitor to the camp was a southern yellow-billedhornbill (Tokus leucomelas), which was totally habitu-ated to visitors. Our plan was to visit to the Chobe Na-tional Park (11,700 sq. km), the Moremi Game Reserve(5,000 sq. km) and the Kalahari Game Reserve (52,800sq. km).

Botswana is a landlocked country in southern Africacovering an area of 5,82,000 sq. km. It has an estimatedpopulation of 1.5 million people and a cattle populationof 1.7 million, and its protected areas cover about 18 percent of its land. These protected areas are part of the5,20,000 sq. km Kavango Zambezi Transfrontier Con-servation Area, which includes protected areas of neigh-bouring Angola, Namibia, Zambia and Zimbabwe.

The Botswana government has adopted a low-volume, high-paying tourism policy, which restricts thenumber of beds and campsites in national parks andgame reserves. Tourist groups can stay only in the camp-ing sites, and the management is strict about entry andexit timings.

Around 10 a.m. on September 1, we entered theChobe National Park via the Sedudu gate, its main en-trance, which is just 3 km from Kasane town. The animalthat immediately caught our attention was an adultSouth African giraffe (Cape giraffe, or Giraffa camelo-pardalis), which was towering over the shrub vegetationaround it. The neatly pruned woolly caper bushes (Cap-paris tomentosa) nearby point to the fact that giraffeshave a liking for the species. Adult giraffes seldom browsebelow the two-metre mark, and their mouths, lips andtongues are highly specialised to feed on a variety ofbrowse, be it spiny or thornless. They are fond of feeding M

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A BIRD’S-EYE VIEW of

the magnificent Victoria

Falls, which is on the

border between

Zambia and Zimbabwe.

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on the young fruits of the sausage tree (Kigelia africana),which may be at a height of 6 m. Bats are attracted to thisspecies, which has attractive green foliage and blood-redflowers that bloom at night on long rope-like stalks, forits nectar. It has been introduced in many places in India.

In 2016, the giraffe population in Africa was estim-ated at 31,500, of which Botswana had about 13,000.After local extinctions in many places, the South Africangiraffe has been reintroduced in many places and issurviving. Yet, the International Union for Conservationof Nature (IUCN) has moved the species from a status of“Least Concern” to “Vulnerable” in its Red List ofThreatened Species report.

A study in Tanzania found that when there is a de-cline of primary prey—black wildebeest (Connochaetsgnou) and plains zebra (Equus quagga)—for lions (Pan-thera leo), giraffe calves become exceedingly vulnerableto lion predation. In Chobe and the Moremi Game Re-

serve, we saw 25 giraffes but only two calves with theirmothers.

Our drive to the Chobe riverfront was along a roadthat runs parallel to the river. It was slow going as theroad was sandy and several elephants (Loxodonta afric-ana), including some magnificent bulls, crossed the roadto go to the river. They paid little attention to our vehicles.The Chobe National Park is reported to have about50,000 elephants, and the Great Elephant Census, whichwas completed on August 31, 2016, reported that Bot-swana had about 1,30,000 elephants. Satellite data showthe distribution of elephants in and around Botswana: in2005-10, a good number of elephants were found outsideBotswana in Angola, Zambia and Namibia, and in 2011-14, most of them had taken refuge in Botswana wherethey are fairly well protected.

But in a country dominated by arid landscapes thatare frequently battered by drought, there is not enoughroom for all the elephants, and their impact on the hab-itat is enormous. Everywhere we went, we saw the skelet-ons of dead trees debarked and killed by elephants.Human-elephant conflict—crop raiding and the killingof people—is a serious problem that is on the rise. Poorpeople living in elephant landscapes rightly demand thatelephant numbers be controlled. This has forced thegovernment to allow the sport hunting of bulls. It hasplanned for the hunting of about 200 bulls in the firstyear, which will fetch the government about Rs.60 crore.Besides the trophy fee, hunters will also pay a significantamount of money as guide fees and for their stay inresorts, which could be for as long as three weeks. Sellingthe meat for human consumption and as pet food and thesale of skins will also bring in a reasonable amount ofmoney. The killing of the bulls will not reduce the ele-

A YOUNG MALE LEOPARD, glowing in the golden light of the setting sun.

ONE OF THE TWO SIGHTINGS we had of a giraffe with its young.

FIVE CUBS PLAYING

with a massive lion, maybe

their father, at Savuti.

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phant population as the bull population is in the thou-sands, but the money can be used for the welfare of thepeople living there. Botswana takes poaching seriously;its soldiers patrol the territory, but they have to coverlong distances, and poachers are greatly incentivised asthe money involved in wildlife trafficking is enormous.

Botswana lions are known to kill calves and youngelephants, yet we saw 28 calves and a total of 160 ele-phants. Interestingly, while elephants often walked pastthe tented camps or fed or drank water near them, theydid not raid them, which is a common occurrence inIndia. It is difficult to explain, but one likely reason maybe the cleanliness of the camps: over the years elephantsmay have learnt that there is very little for them to eat inthe camps. We had seven sightings of lions in Savuti,which is in the heart of the Chobe National Park, and saw20 lions, including cubs. One remarkable sighting was ofa female with two small cubs and a kill of kudu (Tra-gelaphus strepsiceros) lying nearby. The sun was quitewarm, and the lion was resting in the scanty shade.Baker, our driver and guide, told us that the lioness had totravel 5 km to get water, which lactating lionesses need inplenty. It appears that even Savuti lions are able to gowithout water for a certain period of time, but the climaxof this capability is achieved by the Kalahari lions.

One evening, when the forest was bathed in thegolden light of the setting sun, we saw five cubs playingwith a massive lion, maybe the father. When one cubapproached another lion lying some 15 m away andstarted playing with it, the “father” lion aggressivelyrushed towards the other male, which made it run away.One morning, in a marshy area, we saw a large malefeeding on the carcass of a Cape buffalo (Syncerus cafer).Two lionesses and three cubs were waiting patiently tofeed on the kill, which the lion left only after eating his fill.The cubs went next, followed by the lionesses.

One major difference in the social organisation ofmost African and Gir (in Gujarat) lions is that malecoalitions of the latter join the prides only when there is alarge kill or the females are in oestrus. African male lionsare part of prides. This difference is due to the averageweight of the prey lions kill. In Gir, the most commonlykilled prey is cheetal, whose average weight is around 40kg and, therefore, will not provide enough meat for afemale group consistently accompanied by males. InAfrica, the average weight of the prey is around 150 kg.

It is often said that the difference between an Africanand a Gir lion is the presence of a belly fold in the Gir lion.Other than the British zoologist Reginald Innes Pocock(1863-1947), no one had talked about the possibility of

A CAPE BUFFALO BULL,

a formidable but favouredprey of the lion.

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A PLAINS ZEBRA and a group of elephants.

MIK

E J

OH

NS

ING

H

AFRICAN WILD DOGS in the Moremi Game Reserve. The species is one of the four pack-hunting canids of the world.

69 F RONT L I N E . A P R I L 1 0 , 2 0 2 0

African lions having the belly fold. We were pleasantlysurprised to see a fine male lion in Savuti with a clearbelly fold.

The African wild dog (Lycaon pictus) is one of thefour pack-hunting canids of the world, the other threebeing the Asiatic wild dog, or dhole (Cuon alpinus); thewolf (Canis lupus); and the South American bush dog(Speothos venaticus). According to the IUCN, the statusof the African wild dog is endangered as it has disap-peared from 25 of the 39 countries where it occurred inthe past, and its present population is confined to easternand southern Africa. It is said that the population estima-tion of 3,000 to 5,500 dogs is unreliable. The largestsubpopulations might well be below 250 adult animals.The African wild dog population, like that of the dhole,fluctuates because of diseases such as rabies, mange andcanine distemper, which are largely contracted fromfree-ranging dogs.

We were lucky to see the dogs both in Savuti andMoremi, and in both the places one or two individuals ofthe pack had been radio-equipped so that their rangingpatterns could be studied. In Savuti, the pack was restingin the shade; in Moremi, it was on the hunt and was noteasy to follow as cantering dogs can reach speeds of closeto 10 km/hr. This is one of the species in Africa on whichextensive research has been carried out. The ecologicalrole of the wild dog is to weed out unfit animals from preypopulations. Since the dogs occur in a group, they boldlytrot through the savannah where there are lions andleopards (Panthera pardus), the way dholes saunterthrough the forests where there are tigers (Pantheratigris) and leopards. We had four sightings of leopards:one in Savuti and the rest in the Moremi Game Reserve.One young leopard was with a kill of a small animal undera large bush, and the other two, seen in different places,were comfortably stretched out on branches up in trees,

TREES DEBARKED AND KILLED

by elephants. Their impact on the

habitat is enormous.

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THE ACACIA TREE, on which the sociable weaver buildsits nest, faces a great threat from elephants.

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basking in the soft light of the evening sun. Leopards arebeautiful animals, and they look even more gorgeous inthe golden light of the evening sun. The presence ofclimbable trees is important for their survival in a habitatwhere there are a good number of lions. Wild dogs alsoharass them, forcing them to go up trees.

During the drive, we saw nine species of antelopes(Botswana has 22 species). The most graceful amongthem is the impala (Aepeceros melampus), which is com-monly seen in Chobe and in the drier and more forestedtracts of the Okavango Delta. It weighs around 40 kg.Although it can survive without drinking water, the im-pala prefers to live near water and is largely absent fromthe Kalahari, where its place has been taken by thespringbok (Antidorcas marsupialis). Their small sizemakes them ideal prey for the cheetah (Acinonyx

jubatus). The tsessbe antelope (Damaliscus lunatus),which weighs between 125 kg and 140 kg, is suitable preyfor the lion. We saw more of this antelope in the initialpart of our drive from Savuti to Khwai, in the acaciawoodlands. Another beautiful antelope we saw, morealong the Khwai river than elsewhere, was the red lechwe(Kobus leche), which weighs between 80 kg and 100 kg. Itneeds dry land on which to rest but is otherwise adaptedto life in the seasonal floodplains that border lakes andrivers.

But for the white necklace on the upper part of theneck and white ring on the rump, the sudden sighting of afemale common waterbuck (Kobus ellipsiprymus) in itsgrassland habitat, with its large ears, may make wildlifeenthusiasts from India think they had seen a femalesambar deer. Waterbucks need to drink regularly, so they

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usually do not stray far from water and graze on short,nutritious grasses. We saw more of this antelope, whichcan attain a maximum weight of 270 kg, along the Khwairiver and near the Okavango Delta. We saw the steenbok(Raphicerus cempestris), one of the smaller antelopes ofAfrica, which weighs around 10 kg, in several places thatare dry.

In Botswana in the middle of the 20th century, theblue wildebeest (Connochaetes taurinus) was the mostnumerous large herbivore, forming herds estimated at aquarter of a million individuals. Although it is still foundthroughout Botswana, its numbers have fallen drastic-ally. We saw eight of these antelopes while travellingfrom Savuti to the Khwai camp. Since adults weigh morethan 200 kg, it is a favoured prey of lions. We saw manykudus in Savuti and, closer to the Moremi Game Reserve,

three of the very rare roan antelopes (Hippotragusequinus). The male sable antelope (H. niger) with its jetblack body, white face, underbelly and rump, and longcurved horns is a strong contender for the title of Africa’smost beautiful antelope. While travelling from Chobe toSavuti in the gathering darkness, we had a fleetingglimpse of a male sable before it turned and ran awayfrom the road on seeing our vehicle.

Along with the elephant, the lion and the Nile cro-codile (Crocodylus niloticus), the hippopotamus (Hippo-potamus amphibious) stands out as one of the mostdangerous animals of Africa. It spends most of the daysubmerged in water but emerges at night to graze on theshore. Being strongly territorial, the dominant male ofthe group, usually around 10 in number, will defend itsterritory to the death. We saw a total of 50 of them in

A GREATER KUDU eating flowers of the Capparis species.A ROAN ANTELOPE (MALE), a rare sighting.

THE IMPALA, the most graceful of Botswana’s 22antelope species.

S.

MU

RA

LI

TSESSBE ANTELOPES, which weigh between 125 kg and 140 kg, are suitable prey for the lion.

THE STEENBOK, one of the smallest antelopes inAfrica, weighing in at 10 kg.

THE WILDEBEEST is found throughout the country and is a favoured prey of the lion. (Right) The female waterbuck lookslike a female sambar except that the latter has no white ring on its rump.

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Chobe, Khwai and the Okavango Delta. We saw nearly20 plains zebras. It weighs around 320 kg and is an idealprey for the lion. It often mixes with the wildebeest, andtogether they often form large herds. We saw about 40buffaloes, mostly in Moremi near the Okavango Delta asthey are heavily dependent on water. Like the gaur (Bosgaurus) of Asia, large herds of buffaloes are fairly peace-ful, but solitary old bulls can be very nervous and aggress-ive. The buffalo, which weighs around 700 kg, is one ofthe lion’s favourite prey animals.

We also saw some chacma baboons (Papio ursinus)and vervet monkeys (Cercopithecus aethiops), and al-though they are capable of stealing from the tents, we didnot suffer any loss at the hands of these monkeys. Severaltimes, we saw honey badgers (Mellivora capensis), alsoknown as ratel, which weigh around 12 kg, coming closeto our camps at night. It has been reported that it has lost

its fear of people and started scavenging from safaricamps.

We saw about 50 species of birds, prominent amongthem being the southern carmine bee-eater (Merops nu-bicoides), the go-away bird (Corytherixoides concolor),the helmeted guinea fowl (Numida meleagris) and themarabou stork (Leptoptilos crumeniferus), which isclosely related to Asia’s critically endangered greater ad-jutant (L. dubius) and the southern ground hornbill(Bucorvus leadbeateri). Among the above five species, theground hornbills are in the IUCN’s category of “Vulner-able to Extinction”.

We had all the above wildlife sightings during our700-km drive from the Victoria Falls to Maun in Bot-swana, which also includes the drives within wildlifeareas. Surveys indicate that Botswana, of all Africancountries, provides tourists with an overall top-quality

safari experience, and as a result, in 2016, 2.6 to 2.7million tourists visited the country. We could sense dis-cipline in the country in its efforts to manage wildlife.

We saw an abundance of the inedible and strong-smelling wild sage (Pechnel-Loeschea leubnitziae) in theOkavango Delta and Savuti. It can reduce the habitatquality for ungulates the same way the Lantana camaradoes in India. We hope that the dedicated people of andthe Government of Botswana will be able to save theirprecious wildlife and its habitat for posterity. m

A.J.T. Johnsingh is with the Nature ConservationFoundation, WWF-India and the Corbett Foundation.S. Murali is a retired professor of Ayya Nadar JanakiAmmal College, Sivakasi, Tamil Nadu.The authors thank Madhavi Sethupathi for readingthrough the article and Mervin Johnsingh for editingthe pictures.

THE SUPPORT STAFF (from left), Teenage, Baker(driver and guide), GG and Gottyma, the cook.

AN ADULT AFRICAN

elephant and a black-backed

jackal at an artificial

waterhole in Savuti.

F RONT L I N E . A P R I L 1 0 , 2 0 2 0 74

THE reference in Eco-nomic Survey 2020 to

the integration of “As-semble in India for theWorld” with the now-for-gotten “Make in India” slo-gan is a good starting pointto review this work on thestate of scientific research,innovation and laborator-ies in India. Pankaj Sekh-saria’s seminal researchwork, published as Instru-mental Lives, is an oppor-tunity to understand whatis happening in Indianlaboratories. Going beyondthe government’s rhetoricand policy statements iskey to knowing the state ofscientific research in thecountry.

“Make in India”, un-veiled in September 2014,has been almost laughedout of circulation by inter-national economists, who,in an era of internationalproduction networks,found the slogan strange.Now, in 2020, we have “As-semble in India for theWorld”. Against the back-ground of China’s achieve-ments as a factory of theworld, is it one more sloganby the Narendra Modi gov-ernment to mask the se-quential failures in thisarea?

Finance MinisterNirmala Sitharaman, inher recent Budget speech,identified “two cross-cut-ting developments”: “a)proliferation of technolo-gies and b) India having

ing of the sector to foreigndirect investment.

When every policy stepis in the direction of dis-mantling public education,questions do arise, espe-cially about the relation-ship between the state andthe market. The authordoes address these ques-tions in his research. It is aunique work on a laborat-ory that is now defunct.

Interestingly, from apublic policy perspective,the research for this bookstarted in 2010 and tra-versed the Science, Tech-nology and InnovationPolicy of 2013, the “Makein India” slogan and the“Technology Vision 2035(TV 2035)” document re-leased in 2016.

M I L E S T O N E S

We know from the subtitlethat the book relates to alaboratory, basically two

laboratories, one workingon scanning tunnelling mi-croscopes (STMs) and theother on scanning forcemicroscopy (SFM), at thephysics department ofSavitribai Phule Univer-sity, Pune. These were,possibly, “the indigenousand in-house creation ofamong the earliest, if notthe first STMs and atomicforce microscopes (AFMs)in India”.

The book is the out-come of a study by the au-thor on one of thelaboratories as part of hissix-year doctoral researchspanning five nanosciencelaboratories; except forone in the footnote, there isno mention of the otherfour laboratories.

In the second chapter,titled “1986-2014: Makingof the STM”, Sekhsariamakes a brief historical ac-count of Dr C.V. Dharmad-hikari’s foray intoconstructing an STM andforegrounding the globalcontext that includes theaward of the Nobel Prize inPhysics in 1986 for the suc-cessful development of theSTM (which was inventedin 1981). It is the develop-ment of such instrumentsthat spawned the now-ex-panding field of nanos-cience. By an extraordinarycoincidence, it was also in1986 that Dharmadhikari’sSTM journey began, notbecause of the Nobel Prizebut because of the coming

the world’s highest num-ber of people in the pro-ductive ages, 15-65”,adding that “this combina-tion is special to contem-porary India”. It wasembellished with the fol-lowing statement: “The ef-forts we have made in thelast five years and the en-ergy, enthusiasm and theinnovation of our youth arethe ignition required topush forward.”

What would be the ba-sic requirements to acquirethe skills and augment thehuman capital that canreap the benefits of “As-semble in India for theWorld”? Also, can publicpolicy be divorced fromeducation, skilling and re-search in educational insti-tutions and laboratories?This has to be viewed in thecontext of the reduction inallocation for education inthe Budget and the open-

State of labs in India The book gives an insight into the state of laboratories in India and

scientific research and innovation done in them. BY L A W R E N C E S U R E N D R A

Instrumental Lives

An IntimateBiography of anIndian Laboratory

By Pankaj Sekhsaria

Routledge, 2019

Pages: 148

Price: Rs.695

BOOKS in review

75 F RONT L I N E . A P R I L 1 0 , 2 0 2 0

together of “probe micro-scopists”, whom Sekhsariarefers to as an “Instru-mental Community”, us-ing a term developed byCyrus Mody, a historian ofscience and technology(S&T) at Maastricht Uni-versity.

Dharmadhikari’s re-cruitment to the com-munity was “integral butnot central”: “Integral, be-cause this was the com-munity that became hisprimary reference; notcentral, because he did notseem to have had any sig-nificant influence on thecommunity or its develop-ment and also because heremained on the geo-graphical margins of thecommunity that was loc-ated primarily in Europeand North America.”

Although Dharmadhi-kari’s contribution was ac-knowledged onlymarginally in the scientificcommunity in India, whathe accomplished was sig-nificant in the annals ofscience in India, given thathe was successful in mak-ing an instrument at thefrontiers of global scienceand in such quick time.

‘ T E C H N O L O G I C A L

J U G A A D ’

The full and actual story ofthe laboratory is examinedin Chapter 5 under theheading “Dharmadhikari’smicroscopes and technolo-gical jugaad”. I am of theview that this business of“jugaad” is a distraction inthe book. The authordefines “technologicaljugaad” as: “The elementof reconfigured materialitythat is implicated verycentrally in the processesinvolved—in materials touses not imagined initially,giving fresh meaning andpurpose and creating new

worth and value”. Thiscould be motivating forscientists, technologistsand researchers engagedin similar exercises and inunderstanding the “suc-cess of Dharmadhikari inhis laboratory in creatingthe first indigenous STMand SFMs”.

The preceding chapterfocusses on “Jugaad and itsmany avatars”. The authorhas chosen “jugaad” as theprism through which toview the work of Dhar-madhikari’s laboratory,and this, in my view, seri-ously restricts the scope ofhis work. At the same time,one must acknowledgethat the author doespresent all the criticalviews on “jugaad”, includ-ing trenchant critiques ofthe concept by scholarssuch as Thomas Birchnell.

Jugaad aside, one mustemphasise that there isright through the work aninnate intellectual honestyand authenticity. For ex-ample, in the chapter onscience and technology inmodern India, he con-cludes the section on “Con-textualising themethodology” with a quotefrom Amit Prasad, whosays there is “a surfeit ofacademic analyses of sci-ence as well as governmentpolicy documents on sci-entific research in India,but these provide little in-sight into how particulartechno-scientific re-searches are conducted inIndia”.

In the latter context,Sekhsaria makes his ownconclusion: “There arevery few ethnographicstudies in the Indian con-text of life and work withinthe laboratory, of the inter-sections of the manyworlds within science andtechnology or indeed of so-

ciety’s complex interfaceswith this science and tech-nology. The specific detailsof work done by and inlaboratories—the nuts andbolts of what happensthere—is missing becausethere has been a seriousdeficit in the efforts at en-tering the black boxes ofscience and technology.”

Similar to what AmitPrasad says, it follows thatin works such as that ofSekhsaria it is difficult toavoid the bad intellectuallegacy of our so-called crit-ical S&T policy researchersand their muddled viewsregarding the market andthe state. These views arisefrom a combination ofreasons.

One is the mixed-upnotions of non-market, in-cluding socialist, solutionsas alternatives; two, tryingto integrate “Gandhian”views as “alternatives” andending up as intellectualfashion statements; and,finally, intellectual dishon-esty on the part of the re-searchers. The latter ismainly because they workin state institutions of apexscience bodies but do littleto make their own institu-tions more publicly ac-countable. As an alibi, theyengage in mega critiques ofthe S&T policy that are oflittle or no consequence.

In areas such as agri-culture and S&T policy,these researchers get for-eign funding for their so-called agricultural policyresearch and make visits torural areas to publish, andclimb the academic ladder.After they have securedtheir personal and aca-demic fortunes in state-funded public institutions,post-retirement they areindividually more likely tomove to well-fundedprivate universities. This

after great pronounce-ments about the marketand the state. It may be le-gitimate to ask what istheir knowledge contribu-tion to rural societies?Have they triggered anychain of creative change orinnovation?

Semi-academic effortsto strike out new paths, forinstance through well-meaning manifestos suchas “Knowledge Swaraj”cited in the book and sim-ilar attempts to chart outcitizens science manifes-tos, do not really succeed inwhat they set out to do.They also remain withinexclusive elite circles andclosed networks (largelynon-governmental organ-isations acting as “civil so-ciety”), often patronised byWestern scholars, whichare lionised as contribut-ors to “alternative think-ing” on the one hand, andto vehement anti-Westernattitudes in the name of“patriotic peoples’ science”on the other.

There is little or no ef-fort to look at other devel-oping countries, rid of theGandhian cloak, especiallyin Asia because subcon-sciously there is an attitudeof superiority as Indians toother societies, be it in Asiaor Africa. They are likewhat the American juristand writer Oliver WendellHolmes called “BostonBrahmins”, referring to theNew England elite in earlyAmerica. The Indian ver-sion of “Boston Brahmins”abounds in S&T policydiscussions.

S T R I K I N G N E W P A T H S

New, creative work cancome only if young schol-ars strike completely newpaths in working on anS&T policy in India. Fortu-nately, this is happening

F RONT L I N E . A P R I L 1 0 , 2 0 2 0 76

from emerging young sci-entists, and Sekhsaria’swork is definitely in thatdirection. His work, hope-fully, will inspire morework in this direction as hehimself keeps emphasisingat different points in hisbook. From that perspect-ive one can see the excite-ment and passion withwhich Sekhsaria was at-tracted to the work ofDharmadhikari and hisco-workers and theirachievements in the labor-atory. Truly inspiring, butin a country like Indiawhere such dedicationdoes not find recognition,the instruments he madecame to be finally junked.They did not even reach amuseum or a teaching in-stitution to inspire others.

As in many other do-mains in India, one sensesa kind of “apartheid” atwork. I see it often when Ivisit a science college in atier-II city, smaller town ora university which choosesto locate itself in a ruralarea and does such ex-traordinary work in notonly making higher educa-tion accessible to ruralchildren but embarks onnew paths of research andtechnology creation inareas critical to society andthe economy, such as en-ergy and waste.

These rural universit-ies are not eligible for De-partment of Science andTechnology funds or otherCentral funding becausethe “Boston Brahmins” inour S&T establishmenthave their own networksfor funding and are reluct-ant to support good workof younger scholars mostlyworking in smaller institu-tions on the periphery.How then will the grandi-ose pronouncements suchas those in the Budget

translate into real out-comes on the ground?

Sekhsaria is able tomake explicit the subcon-scious “apartheid” per-spectives that influenceinstitutional policy andthat of the high priests ofS&T working in thesepolicy-making institu-tions. Referring to the TV2035 document producedby TIFAC (Technology In-formation, Forecastingand Assessment Council),he points out how “in spiteof invoking complexity anddiversity as the key con-stituents of an India of thepresent and future” it re-duces Indians of 2035 to“six specifically articulatedcategories”.

These six non-exclus-ive segments are as fol-lows: a) Rooted andRemote; b) Globalised andDiaspora; c) Left out orLeft behind; d) AlternativeLifestyles and WorldViews; e) Creative, Innov-ative and Imaginative; andf) Beehives and ProductionLines. Sekhsaria makes asalient point about theTIFAC policy document bysaying: “There are manythings to be underscoredin the subtext of the lan-guage and visual repres-entations offered.”

He points out that “theman representing theRooted and Remote in TV2035 wears a kurta and hasa turban for headgear; therepresentative of the Glob-

alised and Diaspora is aman of his youth in suitand tie; while the womanwho represents the LeftOut or Left Behind Indianis dark, has long plaitedhair and prominent ringshanging from her earlobes”. He raises a numberof fundamental questionsabout the meanings ofsuch classifications andtheir implications.

Talking of the future ofIndia’s food and agricul-ture in the TIFAC policydocument, he points to theabsence of the farmer inthe highly technology-ori-ented statement and asks:“If a majority stakeholderlike a farmer is missing soprominently in the fineprint, can one really expectthat more marginalisedsections that might in-clude tribals, Dalits, fisher-folk and industrial labourhave been included?”

Sekhsaria’s book andhis work as a youngerscholar in this depressingscenario has to, however,provide hope for researchon S&T policy. This is inspite of the fact that hisbook ends on the depress-ing note of Dharmadhi-kari’s instrument beingjunked. It is rather touch-ingly captured in a conver-sation Sekhsaria has withone of Dharmadhikari’sdoctoral students, SumatiPatil, in the presence of theeminent scientist A.K.Raychaudhury who foundthat the Indian Institute ofScience (IISc), Bengaluru,junked the instruments hemade once he left the insti-tution.

Ultimately, what is thevalue of “making” and “cre-ating” even in a laboratoryin India amidst its greatplans captured in slogansof “Make in India” and “As-semble in India for the

World”. It made me reflecton the larger questions of“making” and “creating”, ofactual labour with thehand, of crafting anddesigning. The contro-versy created over T.M.Krishna’s book on mrid-angam makers readilycame to mind. Distancingoneself from the “material-ity”, the cow’s skin in themaking of the mridangam,and the material made thebook the centre of an un-necessary controversy. Thecreators and makers andthe materiality they fash-ion to make music pos-sible, in this case themridangam makers, areasked to be invisible. Thecreative act and labourthat produces the instru-ment that elevates the mu-sic were not to be spokenabout.

In the melancholy ofmy reflections spurred bySekhsaria’s work on Dhar-madhikari’s instrumentsand their being junked, Iwas reminded of Sub-ramanya Bharathi’s song“Nallathor veenai seithe”:“After making a goodveena,/ does anyone let itgather dust and throw itaway?/ Tell me goddessSivasakthi/You have cre-ated us with the power ofknowledge and wisdom,/to make this country livewith a purpose/Give uspower and strength so ourregion can be of value.”

The Finance Ministerfreely quoted Indian poetsin her Budget speech, butthe reality is that we areunable to translate theirthoughts to shape and in-fluence reality. What wehave in the end are wordsand slogans and the emptyrhetoric of public policystatements, be this in S&Tor aesthetic pursuits suchas music. m

There is, right

through the

work, an innate

intellectual

honesty and

authenticity.

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FORMER MumbaiCommissioner of Po-

lice (C.P.) Rakesh Maria isperhaps the most well-known of the city’s “supercops”. When he retired inJanuary 2017, it was hardto imagine a Mumbai po-lice force without him. Inhis tenure of 36 years,Maria had been part of al-most every major investig-ation in Mumbai involvingthe underworld; terror at-tacks; rape cases, notablythe Shakti Mills rape case;and murder cases, includ-ing the Sheena Boramurder.

This February, RakeshMaria made a sensationalcomeback with the releaseof his memoirs, titled Letme say it now. The book,which chronicles his life asan Indian Police Service(IPS) officer, has stirred ahornet’s nest with its ex-plosive revelations onhigh-profile cases, includ-ing the ongoing SheenaBora murder case. It will beinteresting to see whetherthese revelations have animpact on the trial.

A few months before hewas to retire, Maria was“promoted” as DirectorGeneral of Police (DGP),Home Guards. The trans-fer made headlines as hehad just begun investigat-ing the Sheena Boramurder case in which thepower couple, the media

that Maria belonged to afilm family and knew theart of creating drama.Javed, who replaced Mariaas C.P. and whom the lattercalls “a Mukerjea-friendlyC.P.” in the book, said hiscomments were in “poortaste” and “bereft of truth”.

The other controversialchapter is Maria’s investig-ation of Ajmal Kasab, thelone terrorist nabbed in the26/11 terror attacks onMumbai. Maria was thefirst to interrogate Kasab,who was responsible for theattack on the ChhatrapatiShivaji Terminus and thekilling of three top policeofficers, Hemant Karkare,Vijay Salaskar and AshokKamte. He says in the bookthat he found a “chink inhis armour”. “If all hadgone well, he [Kasab]would have been dead with

a red string tied around hiswrist like a Hindu,” hewrites. Maria explains thatthe Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT)wanted the world to be-lieve that the Mumbai ter-ror attacks were “Hinduterror” unleashed on itsown people. Questions arenow being raised by oppos-ition parties on why hewithheld this angle duringthe investigation.

Maria’s story could bethe chronicle of crime inthe maximum city over thelast three decades. Usingthe analogy of a film open-ing, Maria begins his nar-rative with hiscontroversial removal asC.P. but quickly shifts tothe traditional format of anautobiography by describ-ing his childhood as a“Bandra boy”, his familybackground, and his de-termination at a veryyoung age to become a po-liceman.

Those who have inter-acted with Maria knowhim as tough and ruthless.The charming personal an-ecdotes provide a glimpseinto his softer and humor-ous side, particularly hisexperiences as a youngmarried man posted in thedistricts.

Maria’s language issimple, even somewhatcolloquial, but his accountsof the several cases hecracked are gripping andabsorbing. While in office,Maria rarely opened up tothe media even during the26/11 attacks. Hence, hisversion of events in thisbook could be considereddocumentation of whatreally happened duringsome of the worst cases ofcommunal violence andterror attacks in Mumbai.

mogul Peter Mukerjea andhis wife Indrani Mukerjea,had been arrested.

In his tell-all page-turner, Maria explains howand where it all happened.He alludes to two officersas being behind his trans-fer and to the scuttling ofan investigation thatshould have started muchearlier. When the book wasreleased, it sent the Stateadministration into a tizzyas one of the officers, De-ven Bharti, is the currentMaharashtra Police Anti-Terror Squad (ATS) chiefand the other, AhmedJaved, is a former IndianAmbassador to Saudi Ara-bia.

Bharti responded toMaria’s allegations in thebook saying that they werea marketing strategy to at-tract publicity. He also said

Biting the bulletA book of explosive revelations by the former

Mumbai police chief Rakesh Maria.

BY A N U P A M A K A T A K A M

Let Me Say It Now

By Rakesh Maria

Westland, 2020

Pages: 624

Price: Rs.799

BOOKS in review

F RONT L I N E . A P R I L 1 0 , 2 0 2 0 78

In every chapter, he ac-knowledges all the police-men who helped him.

Maria’s tenure beganin the early 1990s at a timewhen crime in Mumbai(then Bombay), especiallygangland warfare, was atits worst. The first import-ant case he worked on waspursuing the notoriousdon Varadarajan Mud-aliar. Maria’s pursuit even-tually led to Mudaliarfleeing Mumbai, never toreturn.

B O M B A Y R I O T S

Maria was a junior officerwhen Mumbai was in thegrip of communal violencefollowing the Babri Masjiddemolition on December6, 1992. Interestingly,while he is a loyal police-man, Maria is also candidabout the police and theirfailures. The Mumbai Po-lice were accused of biasand were held culpable formuch of the violence dur-ing the riots in December1992 and January 1993.

In the chapter on theriots titled “God disposes”,Maria writes: “Wheneverything else was failing,the police were the onlyones left holding the baby.Restoring discipline was apriority for which we hadto be harsh; assuaging vic-tims’ grief also became ourjob where we had to shedour harshness…. The riotsraged on till mid-January.Thereafter, the situationimproved slowly, but notbefore taking its toll on thepolice force which cameunder severe criticism forfailing to control the situ-ation, being biased andsiding with the Hindus.”

The riots led to theserial blasts in 1993. Mariawas back on the streets,trying to keep a restive cityunder control. He says that

his beloved city was underattack and that the policewere doing all they couldto help people. When hewas chosen to lead the in-vestigation, he was amongthe most junior IPS of-ficers in the State. Hewrites: “History bearstestimony, and time andagain it had been proven,how easy it is to brand apoliceman a failure andmake a scapegoat out ofhim…. An opportunity notjust to prove myself, but toserve my commissioner,my force and my nation.Which Bombay officerworth his salt would havesaid no?”

Maria was singularlyresponsible for crackingthe blast case which hadbeen masterminded bysome of the most danger-ous underworld dons inthe country.

The case and investiga-tion is well-documented inbooks and films. Yet,Maria’s version managesto plug so many holes andcorroborate several as-pects of the story, such asthe abandoned Maruti carstashed with a cache ofarms that led the police toa flat owned by TigerMemon in the Al Hussainibuilding. A scooter keyfound in the flat led themto one of the vehicles usedto plant the bombs. In alater chapter, Maria writesabout the funeral of YakubMemon, who was hangedfor being a main perpet-rator of the blasts, but doesnot comment on the exe-cution.

There are chapters de-voted to the killing of DilipKhatau, a mill owner; therise of the Indian Mu-jahideen; the 2003 Mum-bai serial blasts; chasingthe erstwhile IPL chiefLalit Modi; and a few in-cidents involving film per-sonalities from Bollywood.

T H E 2 6 / 1 1 A T T A C K S

Of course, Maria dedicatesseveral chapters to theworst terror incidentMumbai has witnessed. Asa senior police officer, theC.P., Hasan Gafoor, placedMaria in the control room,while Maria himself be-lieves he should have beenfighting at the front.Maria’s sorrow and regretat losing three top policeofficers in the attack comesthrough in severalchapters. He even ad-dresses the charges againsthim by Vinita Kamte, thewife of slain officer AshokKamte, who accusedMaria of mismanaging theshootout.

Referring to the ATSchief Hemant Karkare’sdeath, he says: “What theMumbai police and itsControl Room hadhandled that night wasmany times more, in termsof horror, gravity and sor-row. It was pure distilledterror.” When Mariacircles back to the most im-portant investigation of hiscareer, that of breaking ahardened, indoctrinatedjehadi, he regains histhreatening police de-meanour. He providesevery detail of the interrog-

ation, including Kasab’scapitulation and reverenceto him. The final chaptersdeal with the horrificSheena Bora case, whereIndrani Mukerjea, alongwith an accomplice, re-portedly strangled her owndaughter. Unfortunatelyfor Maria, as he began theinterrogation, he was notonly taken off the case butalso transferred to a softpost. He reproduces adverbatim in the book hisdialogue with the ChiefMinister and his justifica-tion of the sequence ofevents.

While Maria writesbriefly about the mediaand the condition of thepolice force, he does nottouch the subject of polit-ical control over the force.As an officer who did nottoe the line, this is an un-usual distancing but per-haps a wise one. While hewas in service, there washearsay about Maria’smethods of interrogationto extract informationfrom the accused. He doesnot directly address thisbut says there are differentforms of third degree.

Rakesh Maria’s roleand personality were suchthat characters in filmshave been modelled onhim. A web series on hiscareer is reportedly in themaking. Using the samefilm analogy, Maria endsthe book, saying: “(Animaginary voice asks) Andjust one confirmation,please. If you take rebirth,would you want to be backin khaki, as a Mumbai cop?That’s final? (Maria says)Yes, sir, back at your ser-vice. And the packed audi-ence of Mumbaikars trailout of the subconscioustheatre to pour out into thestreets of the City ofDreams.” m

Rakesh Maria’s role and

personality were such that

police officers in films have

been modelled on him.

79 F RONT L I N E . A P R I L 1 0 , 2 0 2 0

SHORTLY after theformer President A.P.J.

Abdul Kalam passed awayin July 2015, the Govern-ment of India honouredhim by promptly naming aroad in Lutyens’ Delhi afterhim. The choice of the roadwas interesting. Aurang-zeb Road was renamedAPJ Abdul Kalam Road.Aurangzeb the bigot givingway to Kalam, widely re-spected in pluralist circlesfor his intellect and wis-dom. It proved to be a con-clusion in haste.

Days after the renam-ing, there was a demandfrom within the rulingBharatiya Janata Party(BJP) to rename AkbarRoad after a Rajputprince.

It spoke of a nationkeen to erase its pluralistethos and soon paved theway for more outrageousclaims; that the Taj Mahalwas a Siva temple and Ak-bar was a foreigner. Thatthe government of the daywas respectful of such de-mands became apparentwhen the Uttar Pradeshgovernment, in 2017, in-cluded nondescriptHindu and Buddhisttemples in its list of must-visit places in the Stateand excluded the Taj Ma-hal from it.

The attempt to wipeout the memory of Akbar,

the Jains and theBuddhists.”

“Unfair fate” is a milddescription for the emperorwho gave the nation one ofits early philosophies of tol-erance, even appreciationof differences. His Sulh-i-Kul, in many ways, can beseen as a preceptor to themodern Indian nationwhere the Constitution, notnecessarily the govern-ment, gives every Indianthe right to equality and thefreedom to practice andpropagate any religion.Back in the 16th centurywhen the faith of the rulerusually decided the faith ofthe empire, Akbar talked interms of uniting peopleacross the barriers ofdogma. He not only gavethem freedom of religion,he respected the divergentviews of scholars of differ-

ent faiths. In the chapter titled

“Conquering India’s Heartand Mind, and Uniting itsSpirit”, Sharma comesacross as a nuanced racon-teur. Rather than statingthe obvious with respect tothe amalgamation of ad-hesive principles of variousfaiths in Sulh-i-Kul, henarrates the fascinatingtale of the origin of theIbadat Khana.

“When Akbar returnedto Fatehpur Sikri in 1575from the conquest ofBengal, he carried withhim a favourable impres-sion of something that thelate Sultan SulaimanKararani of Bengal used todo. That, coupled with hisown inner churning, wasmanifested in a buildingthat housed the first nurs-ery of what is today calledsecularism in India. It wasthe Ibadat Khana.… TheIbadat Khana became avery unique experiment inimproving the theologicaldiscourse. It was a bid toend conflicts among rivalreligions by creating amiddle ground. To whatextent it managed toachieve that objective issubject to debate, but itcertainly had an impact onthe Mughal state systemand distanced it furtherand further from thechurch. This separation ofthe state from the churchwas a stellar achievementof Akbar’s empire.”

It is a lesson today’s In-dia would do well to imbibeat a time when the idea of aHindu Rashtra is raising adin, and the RashtriyaSwayamsewak Sangh, theideological parent of theBJP, is emphasising theidea of every Indian being a

the Mughal emperor whowas hitherto seen as one ofthe greatest Indian rulers,and the Taj was part of anelaborate exercise to eraseall Muslim contributionsto the nation.

Manimugdha S. Shar-ma says in his perceptiveand cogently argued book,Allahu Akbar: Under-standing the Great Mughalin Today’s India: “Theoverarching narrativethough is this: Muslimrulers were bad for Indiaand Indians [readHindus]. And because ofthis, Akbar who wasalready not quite visible,has been almost buried….And that’s quite a spectac-ularly unfair fate of theman who in his lifetimeand even afterwards wasconsidered to be an avatarof Vishnu by the Hindus,

Relevance of AkbarThe author chooses events in history to give a lesson

about the present times that will find favour with

people who believe in peaceful coexistence.

B Y Z I Y A U S S A L A M

Allahu Akbar

Understanding the Great Mughalin Today’s India

By Manimugdha S. Sharma

Bloomsbury

Pages: 306

Price: Rs.599

BOOKS in review

F RONT L I N E . A P R I L 1 0 , 2 0 2 0 80

Hindu. Sharma tells usthat the Ibadat Khana“was constructed aroundwhat was once the room ofShaikh Abdullah NiyaziSirhindi, a disciple ofShaikh Salim Chishti wholater became a devotee ofLord Shiva. That thiswhole journey of theIbadat Khana began fromthe room of a Sufi who be-came a follower of Shivamakes it a very interestingbeginning.” The place soonbecame a meeting pointfor not only Islamic schol-ars but also Brahmins,Christians, Jains,Zoroastrians, Jews andscholars of other religiousdenominations for a freeand frank exchange ofviews.

Here Sharma weavesin a story about Abd al-Qadri Badauni, historianof the Mughal era and aman given to intolerance.A Shia scholar namedMullah MohammedYazidi, who had come fromPersia, allegedly spoke inan unflattering mannerabout the companions ofthe Prophet. Badauni, who

thought the scholar wishedto turn the emperor into aShia, responded withwords that showed him inpoor light.

“Badauni’s frustrationis that of every bigot’swhen surrounded by liber-als and progressives,”Sharma writes. Incident-ally, Akbar had asked theulema of his time to writecommentaries of theQuran. As each scholarhad his own interpreta-tion, it often led to fiercedebates with even Hindusjoining in. Once a HinduRaja, Deb Chand RajahManjholah, claimed thatAllah had great respect forthe cow as the animal wasmentioned in the firstchapter of the Quran. Hewas not banished for stat-ing his views. It showed theempire as a place wherefree exchange of views wasfavoured. Coming to mod-ern India, the Mughalperiod has been reduced toa 300-year rule. Whileboth Babur and his sonHumayun are treated in acursory manner, somejustice is sought to be done

to Akbar, Jahangir, ShahJahan and Aurangzeb.There, too, stereotypesflourish, preventing a nu-anced approach to eachemperor and his times. Ithas been no different sinceIndia attained Independ-ence. Films made in the1950s and the early 1960s,which often talked of thecountry’s shared past andNehruvian socialism, sim-ilarly failed to do justice tothe Mughals.

M U G H A L S I N F I L M S

Sharma devotes a chapterto the media’s depiction ofAkbar. Beginning withHindi cinema, he writes:“Despite having ruled In-dia for 300 years, leavingbehind a tall and robustsociocultural legacy, therepresentation of theMughals in mass mediahas been less than satis-factory. In the 70 yearssince Independence, therehave been only two note-worthy period films withAkbar as the protagon-ist—K. Asif’s Mughal-e-Azam (1960) andAshutosh Gowariker’s

Jodhaa Akbar (2008)….Jodhaa Akbar was alargely fictionalised takeon Akbar and the le-gendary Jodha Bai, hisqueen consort.” To hiscredit, Gowariker consul-ted historians for themovie. They told him Ak-bar did not have a wifenamed Jodha Bai. ButGowariker went aheadwith the project and cameup with a film replete withbloomers all the waythrough. Lopsided as thefilm’s depiction of theMughal emperor was, itwas still yards ahead of atelevision serial on Maha-rana Pratap, the man whowas defeated by Akbar inthe Battle of Chittor, andwho, in these days of revi-sionist history, is hailed asthe winner of that battle.The TV serial reduced Ak-bar to a caricature, a vil-lainous extra in the life of abrave Rajput prince.

Allahu Akbar is not atypical history book, eventhe title is far from theusual. Its back-and-forthstyle of narration defies thestereotypes of recountingthe past. The author picksand chooses events in his-tory to give the reader alesson about the times.

The book may notplease those looking for aprofound understandingof the emperor or expect-ing a well-rounded depic-tion of the man who wasboth a warrior and a philo-sopher. It will rankle thosegiven to bigotry but willsurely find favour withpeople who believe inpeaceful coexistence andunderstand that everybodyin this land is an immig-rant. All that matters ishow far back in time yougo. Allahu Akbar couldwell nudge a few fence-sit-ters. m

A STILL from the movie “Jodhaa Akbar”. There have been only two noteworthy periodfilms with Akbar as the protagonist, “Mughal-e-Azam” and “Jodhaa Akbar”.

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LITERATURE

WITH the recent publication ofSyed Ahmed Esar’s magnum opus,an Urdu translation of the 13th cen-tury Persian poet Rumi’s extendedmystical poem Masnavi, the 97-year-old Urdu poet and translatorbased in Bengaluru feels that he hasfinally finished everything that he setout to accomplish. If we add these sixvolumes to his past published work,the total comes to 19 books, which isa sizeable corpus for a man who saidthat before his first translation waspublished in 1997, he “never expec-ted that there’ll be a single book inmy name”.

The Urdu translation of Masnavihas been published by the NationalCouncil for the Promotion of UrduLanguage and is slated to belaunched in Bengaluru soon. Thenonagenarian, whose takhallus, orpen name, is Esar, which he has per-manently suffixed to his name, hasworked relentlessly on translating ca-nonical Persian literary works intoUrdu since he retired from the IndianForest Service as the Chief WildlifeWarden of Karnataka in 1980.

It is appropriate perhaps thatthis elderly resident of the city livesin the oldest locality of Bengaluru.The jumble of narrow bylanes abut-ting Avenue Road in the founda-tional quarter of Bengaluru is calledthe pete area and was laid out duringKempegowda’s reign in the 16th cen-tury. Esar has lived in an ancienthouse in Sher Khan galli (lane) heresince 1948. Belying his advanced age,Esar excitedly shows off the freshlyprinted six volumes of Masnavi thatlie on his table before he launches

into a story of how he became fascin-ated with Persian poetry.

Esar was born in 1922 in the gar-rison of Mysore Lancers, which is inMunireddy Palya in Bengaluru andstill remains under the control of theIndian Army. His early life was spentin the garrison as his father was asoldier in this military regiment ofthe Mysore princely State who sawaction during the First World War inEgypt. “He saved a fellow soldierfrom drowning in the Nile,” Esar saidin English, adding that his father wasa terrific swimmer. It was here whilelistening to a sermon as a child at thegarrison mosque that Esar firstheard a verse from Rumi’s Masnavi:“Tan bajaan jumbad, nami beeni tu-jaan/ Lekin az jumbee dane tan jaanbadan” (“The body’s quickened bythe soul, yet you don’t see the soul/But by the body’s quickening knowthe soul.”)

“When I first heard this, I re-mained stupefied although I didn’tunderstand the deeper meaning ofthis verse at the time,” Esar said, re-

counting this life-changing momentfrom almost nine decades back. Esarwas sitting comfortably in a loungechair as he spoke and his publishedworks were stacked in a tall tower inthe table in front of him. A table nextto him was piled high with a varietyof 19th-century Persian dictionaries,the most distinguished of which wasa three-volume dictionary of Arabicand Persian titled Furhung-e-Anandaraj, published in 1888 inhonour of Ananda Gajapati Raj Ma-haraj, the princely ruler of Viz-ianagaram. The title page of the firstvolume was falling apart but thewell-used set of dictionaries hadclearly helped Esar in his mammothtranslation as he handled them rev-erentially. The massive bookshelf be-hind him held an eclectic collectionof books reflecting the varied in-terests of Esar. There was an Urdutranslation of Plato’s Republic, avolume of poetry by Ghalib, exegesesof the Quran, Dominique Lapierre’sFreedom at Midnight, a book titledSanctuaries and Wildlife of

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Rumi’s translatorWith the publication of his Urdu translation of Rumi’s Masnavi,

97-year-old poet and translator Syed Ahmed Esar feels that he has

accomplished everything he set out to do. B Y V I K H A R A H M E D S A Y E E D

F RONT L I N E . A P R I L 1 0 , 2 0 2 0 82

Karnataka and a book on the philo-sophy of Al-Ghazali.

It was as a child that he alsobegan to read the poetry of medievalPersian poets like Omar Khayyam,Shams Tabrez, Saadi and Rumi.“Since the script of Urdu and Persianis the same, I would read the poetryeven if I didn’t understand it com-pletely,” Esar said, explaining hisautodidactic learning of Persian.While in middle school, Esar was in-troduced to the work of AllamaMuhammad Iqbal (1877-1938),whose poetry is steeped in philo-sophy, and he immediately fell inlove with the work of this astoundingpoet. “When I was in college, I re-member that I had copied his Asrar-e-Khudi [The Secrets of the Self] inentirety as I could not afford to buythe book itself, which had the veryhigh price of Rs. 6!”

Esar, who continues to have aprodigious memory and can recitemany Persian and Urdu coupletswithout a moment’s hesitation, saysthat he first started doing this duringhis long walks from his home in Mu-nireddy Palya to Central College.Preferring to walk alone, he wouldrepeat these verses as he walked.After his graduation, he joined theForest Department and was evensent for an advanced postgraduatecourse to the University of Washing-ton in Seattle in the United States.He spent two years between 1954and 1956 in the U.S. before he re-turned home by ship. “It was a longjourney, and I left on August 19,1956, and reached Bangalore [nowBengaluru] only on October 19 viaSouthampton, London, Cape Town,Colombo and Madras,” he said.

He continued to work in theForest Department and supervisedkheddah operations to capture ele-phants. Considering his long career asa forester, he has many interestingtales from the jungles to narrate, in-cluding close encounters with tigers.His constant companion through histime in many of these lonely outpostsin the wilderness of Karnataka was hisUrdu and Persian poetry. “It was onSeptember 17, 1977, when I was in thejungles of Sagar, that I translated myfirst Persian verse into Urdu, which

was the 70th quatrain from theRubaiyyat of Omar Khayyam,” hesaid, recalling the moment when heembarked on his translations. “Mymind was blown when I did this and Ihad to go to the [Forest Department’s]depot, but nothing registered in myhead,” he continued. He finished thetranslation of 772 quatrains of OmarKhayyam within a year and picked upthe work of Saadi and Hafez for trans-lation. He continued translating Saadiand Hafez even after his retirement in1980, but left this work incompletewhen he was driven to translate thePersian poetry of Iqbal.

C H A L L E N G I N G A S S I G N M E N T

Iqbal’s deeply philosophical poetry isa challenging assignment for anytranslator, especially for someonealready in his sixties, but Esar hurledhimself into this project headlongand completed the translation of allhis seven volumes by 1992. His firsttranslation of Iqbal’s work, titledPayam-e-Mashriq (A Message fromthe East), was published in 1997while the remaining volumes werepublished subsequently. These in-clude Asrar-e-Khudi, Rubooz-e-Bekhudi (Hints of Selflessness),Javednama (Book of Javed), Zu-boor-e-Ajm (Persian Psalms), PasChih Bayad Kard (What ShouldThen be Done?) and Armaghan-i-Hijaz (The Gift from the Hijaz).

Critics have commented that histranslations retain the essence of thephilosophy and the rhythm of thepoetry, which is a complicated featconsidering the profundity ofsomeone like Iqbal. Notable ad-mirers of these translations includeJaved Iqbal, the son of Iqbal; Sham-sur Rahman Faruqi, a leading Urduwriter; and Prof. B. Sheik Ali, thehistorian from Mysuru. A Japanesescholar of Urdu from Osaka Univer-sity, T. Matsumura, has also relied onhis work to translate Iqbal into Ja-panese. Esar’s work on Iqbal by itselfcould have been sufficient for mostscholars of Persian and Urdu andhad already, in a way, made him im-mortal in literary circles, but Esarwas not done yet.

After completing his translationsof Iqbal’s Persian works, Esar re-

turned to his translation of Rumi’swork. Masnavi consists of 27,720verses spread over six volumes.Translating this took up almost twodecades of Esar’s life and with itspublication, Esar has completed thegoal that he had set for himself. Inbetween his gargantuan work on theMasnavi, Esar has also translatedand published the Persian poetry ofOmar Khayyam, Saadi and Tabrez.He has also published a collection ofhis own poetry and an acclaimedautobiography which was publishedin 2014.

The Karnataka governmentpresented him with the RajyotsavaAward in 2016, which is the secondhighest civilian honour in the State.He has been feted several times bythe Karnataka Urdu Academy and afew of his books have receivedawards from the Urdu academies ofUttar Pradesh and Maharashtra.Considering his vast corpus of workand his wide contribution to theworld of translation and Urdu liter-ature, this limited recognition re-mains grossly disproportionate to hislong career and prodigious output.

Mohammed Azam Shahid, anUrdu writer and journalist based inBengaluru, said that Esar had done“commendable work which can in-spire writers in the present genera-tion” and blamed the north Indianbias in the Urdu world of letters forEsar’s marginalisation. “Esar’s work,translating from Persian to Urdu,has to now be taken forward andthese works can be further translatedinto Indian languages like Kannada.Translations strengthen the multi-cultural legacy of our country, whichis much needed in these times,”Shahid added.

People who know Esar well saythat he maintains a low profile andhas never sought public recognitionfor any of his literary feats. Throughhis interview, he said many timesthat he was “…a man from thejungles, Persian poetry accompaniedme during my sojourns in the forestsand I have done all this work withoutany expectations because of my lovefor language and poetry. I derived adeep sense of satisfaction from mywork and it was also a lot of fun!” m

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THERE is a strange allure of the powerful. Historyshows how hero-worship turns heads and thepowerful become wicked. This is especially true of

a society which has little tradition of democratic gov-ernance. The examples of Margaret Thatcher, Tony Blair,George W. Bush and Donald J. Trump show that even insocieties with long experience of democratic governanceand deep popular commitment to democratic values,people do succumb to the charm of the “strong” man onlyto discover his feet of clay. By which time a lot of damageis done. Those who help in the rise to power of the strongare devoured by them when they acquire supreme power.

David Motadel demonstrates that Adolf Hitler couldnot have grabbed total power but for the support of theformer royals and a conservative aristocracy. He mighthave added the democratic socialists who, like very manyin Britain, preferred Hitler to Communist Soviet Union,which they dreaded and loathed. His article entitled“What do the Hohenzollern Deserve?” in The New YorkReview of Books (March 26, 2020) is an eye-opener.Kaiser Wilhelm II, the last German Emperor of the Ho-henzollern dynasty, fled by train into exile in the Nether-lands on November 10, 1918, after Germany’s defeat in theFirst World War. He bore no small responsibility for it.

David Motadel records that German Conservatives“helped Hitler to power in 1933” and explains it thus:“Crucial to Hitler’s ascent to power was a coalitionbetween the Nazis and Germany’s old conservative elites,who hoped they could use and control him for their ownends. It was they who arranged Hitler’s appointment asReich Chancellor, plotted in the backrooms of gentle-men’s clubs, in officers’ messes, and at dinners and shoot-ing parties on grand estates. The German historian KarlDietrich Bracher demonstrated as early as 1955, in hisDie Auflosung der Weimarer Republik, that it was their

actions that destroyed Weimar democracy, not an inevit-able political crisis. ‘What is more disturbing to our peaceof mind,’ Hannah Arendt noted around the same time inThe Origins of Totalitarianism, ‘is the unquestionableattraction these movements exert on the elite, and notonly on the mob elements in society.’ Hitler’s regime wassupported by a broad spectrum of right-wing groups,including the royalist right, which were united in theirhatred of liberal democracy, communism, and Jews. TheNazis were initially eager to get backing from the mon-archists. It was only after their consolidation of powerthat they lost interest in the former royal family.”

Indira Gandhi split the Congress in 1969 and gov-erned with the support of Communists and Socialists.She rode to power on the plank of “Garibi Hatao”, andthen discarded the allies and the ideology. She grabbedpower in the guise of a bogus Emergency. Her fall wasforetold.

Narendra Modi won allies when he was Chief Minis-ter of Gujarat—businessmen, industrialists,

HOW THE POWERFULTURN BAD

Stories of bad emperors of past

ages show how the acquisition of

power may not so much corrupt

as allow our own worst qualities

to slide out and harm us.

BY A . G . N O O R A N I

ADOLF HITLER, whose rise to power was enabled byGermany’s former royals and a conservative aristocracy.

AP

ESSAY

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Hindutvaites and others who yearned for a “strong”leader. The Old Guard was shoved aside. He becamePrime Minister in 2014 and set about fulfilling theRashtriya Swayamsewak Sangh’s (RSS) triple agenda—auniform civil code, Ram temple in Ayodhya and theabrogation of Article 370 of the Constitution.

But his calculations have begun to go awry. Kashmiris spinning out of control. The agitation against theCitizenship (Amendment) Act (CAA) has put him on thedefensive. The sheen of international prestige has wornoff. But he has assets. The RSS does not like men whoacquire a persona of their own. A senior functionary hasalready sounded an alarm. But the constituency of BigBusiness and Hindutva is intact, though frayed. Largesections of media—print and, more so, electronic—viewith one another to praise Modi. The Cabinet system isdestroyed. The civil service is suborned. The SupremeCourt, mostly a frail reed, is increasingly quiescent. Theopposition is fractured. But public opinion remains adecisive factor and public opinion has begun to turnagainst him.

C. Rajagopalachari sensed all this years before Inde-pendence. While in jail, he made the following entry inhis diary: “Elections and their corruptions [sic], injusticeand life power and tyranny of wealth and inefficiency ofadministration will make a hell of life as soon as freedomis given to us. Men will look regretfully back to the oldregime of comparative justice and efficient, peaceful,more or less honest administration.

“The only thing gained will be that as a race we will besaved from dishonour and subordination. Hope lies onlyin universal education by which right conduct, fear ofGod and love will be developed among the citizens fromchildhood. It is only if we succeed in this that Swaraj willmean happiness. Otherwise it will mean grinding in-justices and tyranny of wealth.”

At the end of the Constituent Assembly’s labours, DrB.R. Ambedkar warned that it was “quite possible for thisnew born democracy to retain its form but give place todictatorship in fact…. If we wish to maintain democracynot merely in form, but also in fact, what must we do? Thefirst thing, in my judgment, we must do is to hold fast toconstitutional methods of achieving our social and eco-nomic objectives…. It means that we must abandon the

method of civil disobedience, non-cooperation andsatyagraha…. [They are] the Grammar of Anarchy andthe sooner they are abandoned, the better for us.”

R O A D T O D E G R A D A T I O N

The rest is so strikingly relevant to the situation today asto bear quotation in extenso: “The second thing we mustdo is to observe the caution which John Stuart Mill hasgiven to all who are interested in the maintenance ofdemocracy; namely, not ‘to lay their liberties at the feet ofeven a great man, or to trust him with powers whichenable him to subvert their institutions’. There is nothingwrong in being grateful to great men who have renderedlife-long services to the country. But there are limits togratefulness. As has been well said by the Irish Patriot,Daniel O’Connell, no man can be grateful at the cost ofhis honour, no woman can be grateful at the cost of herchastity and no nation can be grateful at the cost of itsliberty. This caution is far more necessary in the case ofIndia than in the case of any other country. For, in India,Bhakti or what may be called the path of devotion orhero-worship, plays a part in its politics unequalled inmagnitude by the part it plays in the politics of any othercountry in the world. Bhakti in religion may be a road tothe salvation of the soul. But in politics, Bhakti or hero-worship is a sure road to degradation and to eventualdictatorship.”

Let us go to the original source, John Stuart Mill:“There are nations who will not voluntarily submit to anygovernment but that of certain families, which have fromtime immemorial had the privilege of supplying themwith chiefs. Some nations could not, except by foreignconquest, be made to endure a monarchy; others areequally averse to a republic….

“But there are also cases in which, though not averseto a form of government—possibly even desiring it—apeople may be unwilling or unable to fulfil its conditions.They may be incapable of fulfilling such of them as arenecessary to keep the government even in nominal exist-ence. Thus a people may prefer a free government, but if,from indolence, or carelessness, or cowardice, or want ofpublic spirit, they are unequal to the exertions necessaryfor reserving it; if they will not fight for it when it isdirectly attacked; if they can be deluded by the artifices

MARGARET THATCHER, Tony Blair, George W. Bush and Donald Trump. Their examples show even societies with longexperience of democratic governance succumb to the charm of the “strong” leader only to find the leader has feet of clay.

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used to cheat them out of it; if by momentary discourage-ment, or temporary panic, or a fit of enthusiasm for anindividual, they can be induced to lay their liberties atthe feet even of a great man, or trust him with powerswhich enable him to subvert their institutions; in allthese cases they are more or less unfit for liberty” (JohnStuart Mill, Representative Government, 1861).

Mill adds: “Of what efficacy are rules of procedure insecuring the ends of justice, if the moral condition of thepeople is such that the witnesses generally lie, and thejudges and their subordinates take bribes? [Or are su-pine.] Again, how can institutions provide a good muni-cipal administration if there exists such indifference tothe subject that those who would administer honestlyand capably cannot be induced to serve, and the dutiesare left to those who undertake them because they havesome private interest to be promoted? Of what avail is themost broadly popular representative system if the elect-ors do not care to choose the best Member of Parliament,but choose him who will spend most money to be elected?How can a representative assembly work for good if itsmembers can be bought, or if their excitability of tem-perament, uncorrected by public discipline or privateself-control, makes them incapable of calm deliberationand they resort to manual violence on the floor of theHouse, or shoot at one another with rifles?…

“Whenever the general disposition of the people issuch that each individual regards those only of his in-terests which are selfish, and does not dwell on, or con-cern himself for, his share of the general interest, in sucha state of things good government is impossible.… Gov-ernment consists of acts done by human beings; and ifthe agents, or those who choose the agents, or those towhom the agents are responsible, or the lookers-onwhose opinion ought to influence and check all these, aremere masses of ignorance, stupidity, and baleful preju-dice, every operation of government will go wrong; while,in proportion as the men rise above this standard, so willthe government improve in quality; up to the point ofexcellence, attainable but nowhere attained, where theofficers of government, themselves persons of superiorvirtue and intellect, are surrounded by the atmosphere ofa virtuous and enlightened public opinion.

“The first element of good government, therefore,being the virtue and intelligence of the human beingscomposing the community, the most important point ofexcellence which any form of government can possess isto promote the virtue and intelligence of the peoplethemselves.”

The historian Professor Josiah Osgood did not select,translate and publish the Roman biographer Gaius Su-etonius Tranquilius’ biography Lives of the Caesars forfun. It covers altogether 12 Caesars beginning with JuliusCaesar. Prof. Osgood has selected four instructive cases –Julius Caesar, Tiberius, Gaius Caligula, and Nero (How toBe A Bad Emperor: An Ancient Guide to Truly TerribleLeaders, Suetonius, Princeton University Press, 2020,288 pages). It is part of a series published by the Prin-ceton University Press very creditably, titled Ancient

Wisdom for Modern Readers. It comprises 10 studies,including Cicero’s How to Run A Country.

F A S C I N A T I O N W I T H G R E A T P O W E R

Prof. Osgood reveals the purpose of his work in detail.“What is the purpose of gathering together Suetonius’stories of bad emperors? One answer is that they help toexplain features of our own time. Our fascination withgreat power and with great personalities owes somethingto the Romans, even to the Lives of the Caesars in particu-lar. Suetonius spawned many sequels in antiquity andbeyond, and through translation and adaptation—in-cluding Robert Graves’ famous Claudius novel—he hasgiven us a sense that to be a Caesar is to be outsize,outrageous, out-of-this-world. It is no coincidence thatone of Las Vegas’ longest-running casinos is calledCaesars Palace.

“We are shocked by Caligula’s cruel put-downs orNero’s mania for performance, but we also find theirtransgressions just a little bit pleasurable—find the menthemselves almost entertaining. In the twenty-first cen-tury, we see better than ever how politicians can buildmovements around their personalities. Suetonius helpsus to understand why. In giving free rein to their owndesires, Caesars may tap into our hidden wishes too.

“But then they pull us up short. We see just how badlythey dealt with the challenges they faced, for the buck didstop with them. In a reversal of the usual self-help for-mula, How to Be a Bad Emperor becomes a guide to howyou can be a good leader, whatever your role in life.Caesar refusing to stand to greet the Senators when theycome bearing honours: a lesson in how to treat col-leagues. Tiberius trying to win glory from a disastrousfire: a reminder that you shouldn’t always try to takecredit for your accomplishments. Caligula brutalisingthose around him, even forcing his father-in-law to cuthis throat with a razor; brutalise, and you will be brutal-ised back. Nero meeting the threat of rebellion by loadinghis wagons with organs for the theatres and concubineswith buzz cuts: your pet projects may fatally undermineyou and your organisation.”

Reading Lives of the Caesars from cover to cover canbe daunting; so many details are included. The stories ofthe bad emperors and the weird worlds they constructedmake for an entertaining selection. They are also a medit-ation on how the acquisition of power may not so muchcorrupt, as the old adage has it, as allow our own worstqualities to slide out and harm us. Unrestrained powermay be thrilling, but in the end proves ineffective. Thepolity is wrecked; the people are deceived.

History teaches by analogy, not identity, Henry Kis-singer often remarks. No two cases are identical. AncientRome presents a different case. We are concerned notwith the details of their abuse of power, murders andsexual excesses but with their techniques, which thereader will find relevant. They are disturbingly identicalto those we have seen in our times, as the reader willdiscover for himself—take allies, win power, discardthem and rule ruthlessly. m

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CINEMA

KALIGHAT, in central Kolkata,is one of the most sacred pilgrimagecentres in the country. As is the casewith many other such destinations,right next to it there is a red-lightarea, one of oldest in the city. For atleast more than a century, the sacredand the sacrilegious have existed sideby side.

The Kalighat red-light area, loc-ated in the midst of one of the busiestresidential parts of the city, is a shad-owy, enigmatic world that stands onthe periphery of mainstream society,which neither accepts it nor com-pletely denies its existence. It is anocturnal world of labyrinthine nar-row lanes and cubbyhole dwellings; a

world that appears sinister, brutaland violent, with its own rules andlogic. It is a society whose very exist-ence is unsettling to the “respectable”and whose inhabitants are trappedin it forever branded by a mark ofshame created by the world outside.

In this grey world that exists out-side the purview of middle-classmorality, where no differentiation ismade between the coins of the villainand the virtuous, a group of youngboys and girls grew up with hopesand aspirations that until recentlyseemed likely to remain confined totheir dreams. The film-makerBipuljit Basu came across theseyoungsters while working on his

short film Midnight Blues, the storyof a little boy growing up in a brothel.They had formed a group calledCam-On and were making smallfilms on the lives of people living inthe red-light area and putting themup on the Internet. Basu decided tocollaborate with them for his filmand roped them in at every stage ofthe production, making members ofCam-On the line producers of Mid-night Blues. This project is perhapsthe first “participatory” film to bemade in the red-light area of Kolkataand has opened up a window of hopeand opportunity for these youngpeople.

“From script to make-up, loca-

From red lightto limelight

The film-maker Bipuljit Basu collaborates with youngsters from

Kalighat to make what he claims is the first participatory film in a

red-light area in Kolkata, but more importantly, he provides them an

opportunity to reimagine their lives. BY S U H R I D S A N K A R C H A T T O P A D H Y A Y

THE DIRECTOR BIPULJIT BASU (extreme right) with team Cam-On.

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tion hunting to grooming artistes,Cam-On members became an integ-ral part of the film. This is a hugeexperience both for them and for me.For those boys and girls, this is theirfirst professional project with veter-ans of film production and is amassive boost to their confidence.For me, it is a thrill to make what ispossibly the first ever participatoryfilm in India,” Basu told Frontline.

“We are often stigmatised forhailing from the red-light area. Wewant people to be aware that there istalent here as well and acknowledgethat it is not just the dregs of societywho come from here. There are manygood people here who can go far withthe right guidance and direction.

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Working with Bipuljitda is allowingus to dream a new dream for ourfuture,” said Raju Mondal, presidentof Cam-On. He is the oldest memberof the group and has been a mentorand a teacher to many of the childrenof the Kalighat red-light area. Hepointed out that though there weremany non-governmental organisa-tions working with sex workers’ chil-dren, nobody but those who grew upthere could understand the life andthe problems of the community.Cam-On hopes to identify talentamong the children and youngpeople living there and include themin its future projects. The group’smembership has been growing in thelast couple of years: from six young-sters when it started out to 25 now.

In those little hole-in-the-wallrooms where a large, high bed occu-pies most of the space, members ofthe Cam-On group, like all the otherchildren of brothels, grew up withthe love of struggling mothers whorefused to give them up. There is apainful yearning in them to be accep-ted for who they are and to not bejudged for where they come from.

In many ways, the formation ofCam-On is what has saved the chil-dren from going down the path ofself-destruction in such an environ-ment. “Kids our age after a point tendto stray and fall victim to drug addic-tion or get into bad company. Just aswe avoided those pitfalls and formed

BIPULJIT BASU directing a scene for “Midnight Blues”. (Below) Shooting in progress.

PEPSI AND KALPANA ofKalighat have been working handin hand with Cam-On.

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Cam-On, we want to help other chil-dren do the same. Most important isthat Cam-On allows us to express ourproblems. Through our films we ex-press our pain, our hurt, our littlevictories and defeats. It is all our cre-ation,” said 22-year-old MousumiShaw, who is studying masscommunication.

E A R L Y D A Y S

Initially, before the idea of forming agroup came into being, the boys andgirls mostly amused themselves byshooting images using their mobilephones. Their common passion forcinema brought them together, andthey decided to take up film-makingseriously. The Cam-On group cameinto being even though they had notyet named themselves. They pooledtheir resources to buy a second-handvideo camera for Rs.11,000 and, withthe new equipment, made their mostsuccessful film (in terms of viewer-ship) to date, Poltu’s Life, which is ashort film on the travails of a youngboy growing up in the red-light areaof Kalighat. The role was played bythe 12-year-old son of a sex worker.“Our biggest encouragement was thepopularity of Poltu’s Life on You-Tube [uploaded on February 5,2017]. Till date it has receivedaround 18,000 views. This was ahuge thing for us and strengthenedour resolve to not give up,” said Ra-bin Bag, who is a graduate in educa-tion. So far Cam-On has uploaded sixfilms, made between 2017 and 2019,

on YouTube: Poltu’s Life, AncientRing, Speechless, Love Decision,Amader Chhoke Elaakar Khobor(“The news of the neighbourhoodfrom our eyes”, which is a document-ary) and Wish. “All our films have asocial message and are not more than20 minutes long,” said 26-year-oldRupesh Chaturvedi, who is inter-ested in the editing aspect of cinema.

It was not just love for cinemathat was the driving force behind theformation of Cam-On; it was also adesperate need to project the realityof their lives. “We grew up here andfaced all the usual problems a childcan face growing up in a red-lightarea: the abuse, the drunks, beingkept down, and so on. When we star-ted watching movies, particularlyBollywood films, we realised thatwhat was being shown was not thereality that we face. So we resolved todepict our reality through the filmswe made with Cam-On,” Chaturvediadded.

The youth of the Kalighat red-light area realise that their participa-tion in Midnight Blues may be a hugestep towards their social inclusion, sowhen the local political goons ini-tially created problems for Basu andhis crew, Cam-On stepped in and,with the support of the red-lightcommunity, forced the hoodlums toback off. “We told them clearly thatwe would not allow them to interfereas the future of the children of thiscommunity was at stake,” said RajuMondal.

THE film-maker and musicianBipuljit Basu has tried a unique ex-periment by making a “participat-ory film” for the first time in ared-light area of Kolkata. He dis-covered a group of young amateurfilm-makers, all children of sexworkers, and roped them in as lineproducers for his upcoming shortfilm, Midnight Blues. In an exclus-ive interview with Frontline, Basutalks of his experience working withthe youth from Kalighat. “They havethe capability to go a long way. Nowwhat they need is recognition fromthe Indian mainstream film in-dustry,” he says. Excerpts:

Tell us something about “MidnightBlues”. Where do you plan to gowith the film?

Before starting my career infilm, I used to work as a music com-poser. In 2008, I got in touch withthe brothel children through a me-dia project in Kolkata, and soon Ideveloped bonhomie with them. Isaw there the women receive “cus-tomers” in their tiny rooms to earn aliving; the little children have nospace to stay till midnight. Be itmonsoon or winter, they roamaround the roadside, and so manyuntold stories are born there everynight.

It affected me so much that Iscored a song for the children in2008. It was recorded in 2013. Youcan find it on YouTube as “Tormukh” [Your face]. That song hadbeen lingering in my ears for years.In August 2019, I conceptualisedthe film project on the red-light areachildren in Kalighat and startedwriting the screenplay. If I hadn’twritten the song, the film MidnightBlues wouldn’t have happened.

I am planning to float the filmon every conventional and non-con-ventional film domain, includingthe international film festival cir-cuit, national and foreign universit-

ies, film institutes, chambers ofcommerce, social clubs and consu-lates and finally on OTT [over-the-top media services]. I have enteredinto a partnership with Independ-ent Film Circle [United States]. Ihave spoken to Surjyodoy Chatter-jee, Film Division, Goethe-Institut,so that the film can reach audiencesin the U.S. and European film cir-cuits. The French actress TiphaineMayran has acted in this film. Idon’t want to leave any stone un-turned to let the audience know thechildren’s story, which is unknownto the rest of the world, and theunique film production process thathappened in India for the first time.

How did you come across Cam-On(the group of young amateur film-makers)?

I wanted to make it a completelyparticipatory film. Otherwise, therewas no point in making it. Myyoung, energetic producer, AbhijitDutta, and I agreed on this. But wecouldn’t find a way [to do this]. Be-cause it [the red-light area] is anovertly sensitive area, and we hardlygot a chance to enter there with myunit. With a small team, we startedspending time in the Kalighat red-light area from October and startedspeaking to various people, localclubs and NGOs. But we were not

getting any response from them.Then, an unprecedented incidenttook place. During our meetingswith various people in Kalighat, weidentified a group of young peoplewho happened to be sex workers’children, and all of them are creat-ive amateur short-film makers whoupload their videos on YouTube. Istarted motivating them to collab-orate with us as a technician team.Soon, their mothers also joinedthem. They belong to a vulnerablegroup, and keeping them motivatedand focussed to join a mainstreamfilm was my initial challenge. Ab-hijit Dutta supported me whole-heartedly to form the group, givingevery effort and resource.

What was it like working with theseyoung people from Kalighat?

Let me tell you an interestingincident. I always found the decon-struction theory of Jacques Derridavery difficult to understand. I amnot ashamed of admitting it.

In a script-reading session, Iread the screenplay to the sex work-ers, mothers and children, andasked them to get back to me withtheir perspective. One week later,when they got back to me, what atransformation they had made! Onthat day, I understood what “decon-struction” is! What I couldn’t un-derstand from reading hundreds ofpages for years, they taught me injust an hour.

They have groomed and trainedthe actors to act like them. The act-ors—Manosree, Sylvia, PrabalBhadra, Sania and Deep Sarkar[child actor]—themselves spentweek after week with the sex workercommunity, and I thank them for it.

The women worked on the cos-tume and make-up, sharing theirknowledge and the way they dressup every day. The Cam-On teamand the community have been in-volved from location hunting, art

setting and production con-trolling to acting, casting final-isation, assisting in directionand editing. They are also mak-ing a documentary on the en-tire process of how they haveemerged as a film productionhouse, the first from a red-lightarea in India. My entire team isastonished with their perform-ance. I must thank my team:My producer Abhijit Dutta,DOP [director of photo-graphy] Pravatendu Mondal,art director Ranajit Garai, ed-itor Anirban Maity, sound de-signer Partha Burman, associatedirector Mousumi Bilkis.Without their spontaneous sup-port, the Cam-On formationwouldn’t have been possible.

Working on this film with youhas given the youngsters a lotof hope. Where do you thinkthey can go from here?

It’s a mainstream film, andthey have designed a main-stream film’s production. So, itshows they have the capabilityto go a long way. Now, whatthey need is recognition fromthe Indian mainstream film in-dustry. They need to get a tech-nician card from the cineemployees’ association so thatthey can work on other filmproductions.

Do you plan to work with Cam-On again?

My next feature film will bebased on 10 tribal Muslim girlswho challenged religious patri-archy in their mohalla. I amlooking for collaboration for it,and I will want the Cam-Onteam working as a line produ-cer unit. I want to see a mar-ginal group like themdesigning another sublimestory creatively on the screen.In Indian cinema, this ap-proach has also never been ex-perimented with. Onlymainstream cinema can bringabout such a social impact.

‘What they need is recognition’

BIPULJIT BASU with Abhijit Dutta,his producer, between shots.

Interview with the film-maker Bipuljit Basu. BY S U H R I D S A N K A R C H A T T O P A D H Y A Y

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A SCENE from “Midnight Blues”.

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One of the main problems thatchildren of red-light areas face in theoutside world is the stigma attachedto their background. The exposureand recognition Midnight Blues willgive them will be a crucial step in thelong struggle for social acceptancefor the children of Kalighat. “Wehope to make people understandthat the children here are like allother children. We do not want thechildren of today to face the sameproblems we faced when we weregrowing up here. Getting an oppor-tunity to work on this film is a hugelearning experience for us,” said 26-year-old Ranajit Majumder.

C O M M U N I T Y P A R T I C I P A T I O N

If the community of the red-lightarea was initially reluctant to be apart of the project, under Cam-On’sinfluence it too began to get involvedin different ways. For example,Shampa Saha and Kalpana Jana areoverseeing the make-up of the act-resses. “There is a particular way inwhich we girls do our make-up whenwe go out. We ensure that the make-up of the actresses remains authen-tic,” said Shampa. Kalpana pointedout that it was Cam-On’s presence inthe project that drew her to it. “Myson acted as Poltu in Cam-On’s filmPoltu’s Life. It was one of theproudest moments of my life to real-ise he had so much talent. It gave mehope that with Cam-On’s help myboy will be able to find his way in theworld. Cam-On helps us and we helpCam-On. These are all our children,

our little brothers and sisters,” shesaid.

Such was the cooperation and in-volvement of the sex workers’ com-munity that on some nights theactresses themselves stood in “theline” on the road, with the sex work-ers dropping to the background butkeeping a protective eye on them.They had trained their wards so wellthat even local residents were fooled.“They allowed us to shoot the film atnight and even enter the most in-terior parts of the area,” said Basu,acknowledging their help at the costof their business.

One unique thing about theKalighat red-light area is that thecriminal elements there do not con-trol the sex workers and hence can-not always exert their influence. “Thewomen of the area are independentand self-contained, which is thereason they can stand up to the hood-lums and the political bullies. Theirsense of empowerment allowed meto film there.” Their independence iswhy something like Cam-On couldcome into existence. The level of edu-cation is also considerably higher inKalighat compared with other red-light areas.

With Midnight Blues, Cam-Onno longer remains just a medium ofself-expression for the youth ofKalighat but is a vehicle of progressand emancipation. The membershave recently applied for the outfit tobe registered as a “society” and havebig plans for the future. “We may inthe future make it a private trust or a

private limited company working onfilm production,” said Raju Mondal.

Subhojit Maity, who is studyingphilosophy at Jadavpur University,said that one idea is to venture intotheatre. “Doing theatre is also an ex-ercise for mental health. In our com-munity, we see many childrensuffering from depression. We arethinking of forming a theatre groupand doing workshops,” he said. Also,the group does not wish to restrictitself to the red-light community butwants to coordinate with other mar-ginalised, poor people, particularlyin rural areas. “For so long weworked without any support. Evenour equipment was bought second-hand. With Midnight Blues, we aregetting paid for our work for the firsttime. Through Cam-On we want toreach out and extend the kind of helpwe never got,” said Mousumi Shaw.

Basu also has big plans for thefilm after it is completed. He will betaking it to international film fest-ivals and plans to screen it in uni-versities, chambers of commerceand consulates. Whether the filmwins critical acclaim or not, it hasalready achieved something veryspecial: it has given recognition totalent that would otherwise haveremained unnoticed; it has openeda window of opportunity for thosewho have been banging on closeddoors all their lives; and, most im-portant, it has injected hope andenthusiasm in a community thathas always been shrouded in dark-ness and despair. m

SEX WORKERS helping the heroine with her make-up.

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MEMBERS OF CAM-ON setting up lights before a shot.

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THE cooperation between theOrganisation of the PetroleumExporting Countries (OPEC)

and some non-OPEC oil exporters,including oil major Russia, to limitproduction and supply of oil and helphold oil prices has collapsed. In a dra-matic post-COVID-19-pandemicturn, discussions to extend this agree-ment among OPEC-plus countriesbroke down at the end of the firstweek of March. The agreement hadbeen arrived at in December 2016and had been strengthened as re-cently as December 2019, when pro-duction cut commitments wereraised from 1.2 to 1.7 million barrels aday.

The trigger for the breakdown oftalks was the damaging effect that thecoronavirus shock has had on globalgrowth and consequently the demandfor oil. The International EnergyAgency’s forecast indicates that forthe first time since 2009 there wouldan absolute fall in oil demand in2020. Falling demand has alreadyresulted in a steep decline in oilprices, with the price of Brent crudemoving from close to $70 a barrel at

price collapse, with the price of Brentcrude falling from close to $39 a bar-rel to just above $32 a barrel betweenMarch 10 and 13.

T W O I M P L I C A T I O N S

Unless a new agreement helps re-dress the demand-supply imbalancethat is driving down prices, the cur-rent situation has two implications.One is that the increase in global oilsupplies as a result of the surge inproduction of shale oil in the UnitedStates is likely to see some correction,since shale oil reserves at a number oflocations can be competitively ex-ploited only at prices higher than thecurrent levels. Lower shale outputwould moderate the adverse effect ofthe demand-supply imbalance onprices. The other implication, how-ever, is that even if the oil price de-cline tapers off, prices of the resourceare likely to remain depressed forsome time to come.

This turn of events is surprising,given that the agreement on a furtherdose of production cuts had beenstruck as recently as December 2019.Moreover, in early March Russia had

the beginning of January to around$45 a barrel by the time of the OPEC-plus meet on March 10. This re-quired additional production cuts toalign supply with demand and re-verse the price decline, which waswhat the March discussions soughtto secure.

In those discussions, Saudi Ara-bia’s demand was that Russia, theother dominant producer in thepost-2016 oil-exporter alliance,should join OPEC in ensuring a fur-ther 4 per cent fall in global produc-tion. Russia demurred, making itdifficult for Saudi Arabia or OPEC togo ahead with production cuts, sinceincreased Russian production couldpush down prices even further. Thiswould imply that oil revenues ofcountries enhancing productioncurbs could be hit by a combinationof lower sales and lower prices. Facedwith that possibility, Saudi Arabiadecided instead to increase sales soas to offset falling prices with in-creased production. But the an-nouncement that it, too, wouldincrease output at a time when de-mand was falling only intensified the

Oil shock in reverseThe steep fall in oil prices impoves India’s manoeuvrability to address

an economic recession. However, the government’s decision to

increase the excise duty on fuel betrays an attempt to appropriate for

itself the benefits that may have otherwise accrued to the citizens.

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said that following a call from SaudiArabia’s King, the two countrieswere planning “to further co-ordin-ate their actions” to stabilise theglobal oil market. Russia’s decisionto go back on that commitmentseems to have been influenced by re-cessionary fears and the demandsfrom public and private sector bar-ons close to the Vladimir Putin ad-ministration who rule the oil sectorand who are looking to keep shaleproduction down and increase Rus-sia’s market share. The governmentdecision was also spurred by its ex-treme dependence on oil. Oil and gasaccount for close to two-fifths of Rus-sia’s GDP, pointing to the inadequatediversification of the country’s eco-nomy which makes it dependent on arange of imports.

Oil and gas also account for morethan 60 per cent of the country’s ex-ports. So, any cutback in oil produc-tion not only directly affects the GDPand its growth, but also limits theability of the country to access crucialimports. Clearly, President Putinand his team have calculated that,given the economic threat posed bythe COVID-19 pandemic, a price fallwill be less damaging than the loss inoutput and export revenues that pro-duction cuts imply. Financial Timesreports that Russia had declared thatit could survive with oil at $25-$30 abarrel for a decade, drawing on itsnational wealth fund for budgetaryresources aimed at keeping the eco-nomy running.

However, what the Russian au-

said: “Based on the price of oil, I’vealso instructed the Secretary of En-ergy to purchase at a very good pricelarge quantities of crude oil for stor-age in the U.S. strategic reserve.” Oilprices immediately rose 5 per cent.

I N D I A N S C E N A R I O

The government in oil import-de-pendent India has decided to garnerfor itself the benefits from the oilprice drop. With the dollar price of asignificant import falling, the coun-try looks to benefit in the form of alower import bill and lower trade andcurrent account deficits. That im-proves the manoeuvrability of a gov-ernment that has to address aneconomic recession. But, rather thanallow lower oil prices to translateinto lower prices paid by consumers,which is what should happen in anostensibly market-determined pri-cing system, the government has de-cided to increase the excise dutylevied on petrol and diesel by Rs.3 alitre. It presumably hopes to make upfor revenues lost because of corpor-ate tax concessions doled out to mit-igate the effects of the recession onthe profits of Indian business and usethe money to meet its self-imposedfiscal deficit targets.

National Democratic Alliancegovernments have relied heavily onthis source of revenue, with the ex-cise duty per litre levied in the case ofpetrol rising from Rs.9.48 in January2014 to Rs.22.98 currently, and thatin the case of diesel from Rs.3.56 toRs.18.83. So the response to theglobal oil price seeks to appropriatefor the government the benefits thatmay have accrued to the citizens itgoverns. That, however, may havebeen a good idea when the economywas performing well. Raising theprice of a universal intermediate thatenters into the cost of production ofmultiple commodities is to court in-flation. Rising prices, even of essen-tials, would depress demand furtherand intensify the recession. The un-intended outcome could be stagfla-tion in a country that is onlybeginning to experience the eco-nomic effects of the COVID-19 pan-demic that, as expected, has crossedits borders as well. m

thorities may not have taken into ac-count is the Saudi response and theconsequent magnitude of the oilprice decline that decision could pre-cipitate. A steep decline hurts Russiabecause its ability to expand produc-tion to compensate for lower prices islimited, given the production capa-city it has in place. Saudi Arabia, too,is a heavily oil-dependent country,perhaps even more than Russia. Butit has substantial leeway on the pro-duction front, and would not only bein a better position to offset fallingprices with enhanced production butis also better placed in terms of thecosts of exploiting its reserves to winback market share by displacing U.S.shale producers. The latter, giventheir costs, would not be able to stayin production as prices fall belowsome threshold.

Beyond a point, Russian oil facil-ities, too, face a similar cost problem.According to one industry estimate,Saudi Arabia can allow prices to godown to as low as $13 a barrel andstill cover cost and turn a profit.Whereas, at exchange rates that pre-vailed until recently, Russian produ-cers would be looking for price levelscloser to $40 a barrel to cover costs,though rouble depreciation can helpbring that dollar figure down.

Outside of the OPEC-plus group-ing, countries have responded to theconsequences of the Russia-SaudiArabia stand-off very differently.The U.S.’ position is ambiguous.While that country had earlier al-ways pushed for lower oil prices, thefact that it is now self-sufficient hasaltered its stance. It still would needto keep pump prices low to appeasean automobile-dependent popula-tion. But when oil prices trend toolow they threaten the viability of theshale industry. That would have re-percussions elsewhere in the eco-nomy, especially the financial sector,since shale investments were sub-stantially financed with credit, in-cluding with junk bonds. Notsurprisingly, Donald Trump came tothe rescue of beleaguered U.S. oilfirms and their financiers with a de-cision to order purchase of oil ostens-ibly to shore up the country’sstrategic reserve. On March 13, he

TALKS TO EXTEND theagreement to limit oil productioncollapsed in the first week of March.

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Mohammed bin Salman, the de facto ruler of the king-dom, ordered the ramping up of production and a cut inthe price of Saudi crude by 10 per cent. It was the biggestcut in two decades. The Saudis are hoping to cut intoRussia’s market share. By drastically cutting prices,Saudi Arabia is hoping to teach Russia a lesson for nottoeing the Saudi line on production caps. Asian countriesimporting Saudi oil were offered a special discount.

The Russians have followed suit in a tit-for-tat moveby upping their own production. The result was that by

GLOBAL OIL PRICES HAVE PLUNGED AFTERthe bitter parting of ways between Saudi Arabia andRussia. After a meeting in Vienna in the first week ofMarch, attended by the oil Ministers of the Organisationof the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and Rus-sia, the unity that was on show for many years crumbleddramatically. Russia opposed the Saudi proposal to cutoil output further in order to stabilise global prices afterthe coronavirus pandemic adversely impacted global de-mand. The Saudi demand for a cut in oil production by1.5 million barrels a day, amounting to 1.5 per cent ofworld supply, was rejected by Russia. Russia said it fa-voured continuing with the current production levelsagreed upon with OPEC until the middle of the year.

Saudi Arabia reacted with anger, and Crown Prince,

CRUDE WARS

AT AN OILFIELD near Almetyevsk, Tatarstan, Russia, onMarch 11. Saudi Aramco’s plans to boost its oil output raisesthe stakes in a price and supply war with Russia and U.S.shale producers.

ANDREY RUDAKOV/BLOOMBERG

The downturn in the global economy precipitated by thecoronavirus is made worse as Saudi Arabia and Russia fall out overcrude oil production levels and engage in a price war resulting in a

free fall of fuel prices. BY JOHN CHERIAN

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the second week of March, global oil prices had plungedby 25 per cent. It was the fastest decline recorded since1991. The CEO of Saudi Aramco, Amin Nasser, an-nounced in mid March that his company would furtherdeluge the market in the month of April. He said that

production would be set at “300,000 barrels a day overthe company’s sustained capacity of 12 million bpd [bar-rels per day]”. Saudi Aramco is the world’s single biggestexporter of oil. According to experts, Saudi Arabia hasstarted “a price war” against Russia, promising to sell itsoil at a discount in order to maximise its own revenues.

The turmoil in the oil industry coincided with thedownturn in the global economy precipitated by thecoronavirus pandemic. The demand for jet fuel, petroland diesel drastically declined while the energy market isfacing a supply-and-demand crisis. The stock marketsaround the world were already plunging when the three-year-old alliance between the Saudis and the Russiansfell apart. Saudi Aramco’s shares—the company had re-cently gone public—was one of the most affected. Theyfell by 9 per cent after Russia ended its agreement withOPEC. The authorities in Russia are confident that theywill be able to outlast the low oil prices as they will be ableto produce oil at the lowest cost, at around $20 per barrel.The Saudis too can produce oil cheaply but will have tosell it around $75 a barrel if they have to balance thenational budget.

A prolonged oil-price collapse is beneficial to energy-dependent countries such as India, China and Japan. Itis, however, not good news for the United States’ oilindustry, which has become overly dependent on oilextracted from tar sands and fracking. The U.S. recentlybecame the largest oil producer in the world, overtakingSaudi Arabia and Russia. But with the price of oil remain-ing low for the last seven years, many small oil companiesin the U.S. have either closed down or gone bankrupt.According to oil industry analysts, for small shale oilcompanies in the U.S. to remain profitable, oil pricesshould be at least $50 a barrel.

One of the key reasons why Saudi Arabia decided tojoin hands with Russia was to keep the U.S. oil companiesfrom undercutting them. The U.S. has become a bigexporter of oil since 2014, cornering markets in countriessuch as India that until recently depended mainly on oiland gas imports from West Asia. In just seven years, U.S.shale production jumped from 0.4 million bpd to 4 mil-lion bpd. The last time OPEC had allowed oil prices to fallwas in 2014, increasing production to offset the threatposed by rising sales of shale oil producers from the U.S.The price of oil had crashed to $30 a barrel that year.

Russia joined with OPEC in 2016 to stabilise the priceof crude. The two sides coordinated in setting up produc-tion quotas until their break-up in the first week ofMarch. Russia was convinced that the Saudi proposal ofenforcing further cuts in production at this juncturewould only benefit U.S. shale oil producers. Russia hasnow decided to take the U.S. shale industry head-on. Acold and calculated decision was taken by Russia tosacrifice the budding friendship with the Saudi mon-archy. “The Kremlin has decided to sacrifice OPEC+ tostop U.S. shale producers and punish the U.S. for mess-ing with Nord Stream 11,” said Alexander Dynkin, thehead of the Russian think tank the Institute of WorldEconomy and International Relations (OPEC+ is an ac-

PRINCE ABDULAZIZ BIN SALMAN AL SAUD,

Minister of Energy of Saudi Arabia, arrives for the 178thmeeting of OPEC in Vienna, Austria, on March 6.

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ronym for the short-lived alliance between the oil carteland big exporting nations like Russia). Stocks in small-and medium-size U.S. shale companies are already infree fall.

The U.S. had earlier imposed sanctions on companiesinvolved in Nord Stream 11, which supplies gas to Germanyand the Russian oil giant, Rosneft. The U.S. governmenthad imposed sanctions on the state-owned Russian oilcompany for marketing oil from Venezuela. German Chan-cellor Angela Merkel strongly criticised the U.S. move onthe Russian pipeline and urged the U.S. to desist frominterfering in the internal affairs of European countries.

O I L P R I C E S T O R E M A I N L O W

The price of oil in the second week of March was about $34a barrel. Most oil industry experts predict that oil prices willremain low for the foreseeable future as there was a glut inthe oil market. The low revenues from oil will also bedetrimental to the economies of even the rich OPEC mem-bers like Saudi Arabia. For the Saudis to sustain theircurrent level of governmental spending, oil revenues haveto be at least $80 a barrel. After the Arab spring uprisings,the monarchies in the region had to dole out more subsidiesto the populace to stave off unrest. Oil accounts for nearly70 per cent of Saudi Arabia’s fiscal income. With theireconomies doomed to be dependent on oil for the foresee-able future, social unrest could be a distinct possibility if theprice continues to remain low for a long period. Russia has$150 billion in reserves to cover a budget deficit for up to 10years even if oil sinks to $25 a barrel. Oil and gas provides40 per cent of Russia’s fiscal income.

The Saudi-Russian break-up also occurred at a timewhen the fissures within the Saudi royal family werebecoming more and more visible. Recent events have casta shadow on the privatisation of Saudi Aramco and theambitious Vision 2030 programme. Saudi Aramco an-nounced in the third week of March a 20.1 per cent dropin the profits for 2019. The world’s most valuable firmalso announced that it was slashing expenditure for thisyear. The oil spat with Russia and the coronavirus pan-demic have already had an impact on the Saudi economy.

At least four senior members of the ruling royal fam-

ily have been put under arrest. They include PrinceAhmed bin Abdulaziz, the brother of King Salman, oncharges of plotting a coup. The others are his son, PrinceNayef bin Ahmed bin Abdulaziz, the head of the LandForces Intelligence and Security Authority; the formerCrown Prince, Muhammad bin Nayef; and his half-brother, Nawaf bin Nayef. Prince Ahmed bin Abdulazizis a direct descendant of the founder of the Saudi king-dom, Ibn Saud. He has openly criticised the presentgovernment’s policies, especially those relating to Yemenand its immediate neighbourhood.

The head of the International Energy Agency (IEA),Fatih Birol, meanwhile, warned that the Saudi-Russia oilprice war could put at risk the ongoing fight against thecoronavirus pandemic. “The world is facing a major chal-lenge in fighting against the coronavirus,” Birol told theFinancial Times. “I find it at best irresponsible that theyare having a price war now. The people of the world willnot forget who was on the side of fighting the virus, andwhich countries were on the side of making the fightmore difficult.” Birol said that oil-dependent economiessuch as those of Nigeria, Algeria and Iraq would facelarge budget shortfalls as a result of the ongoing pricewar. The situation of oil-exporting countries likeVenezuela and Iran, already reeling under U.S. sanc-tions, is even more dire. The IEA chief also warned that itwould be a mistake to write “the obituary” of the shale oilindustry in the U.S.

The Trump administration is unhappy with both itsally Saudi Arabia and its strategic rival Russia for trigger-ing the oil price war. It has not only had an adverse effecton the oil industry in Texas, a State Donald Trump has towin if he has to retain his presidency, but also on the U.S.stock market. The country has witnessed the sharpestdrop in its equity market since 2008. Trump’s supportersin the Congress are openly urging him to apply pressureon the Saudi Crown Prince into reversing his decision onoil prices.

Texas Senator John Cornyn, speaking on behalf of theshale oil lobby, suggested that Trump urgently speak tothe Saudi Crown Prince and remind him of Saudi Ara-bia’s dependence on the U.S. for its security. m

A FILE PHOTOGRAPH of Muhammad bin Nayef (right),when he was Crown Prince, with Mohammed bin Salman,who was then Deputy Crown Prince. Saudi authoritiesarrested Muhammad bin Nayef and three others oncharges of plotting a coup.

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A FRACKING OIL FIELD in California, U.S., a file photograph.DAVID MCNEW/AFP

peace talks with his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin.After more than six hours of talks, a ceasefire agreementon Idlib province was announced. Under the terms of theagreement, a “security corridor” is to be created to helpcivilians fleeing the conflict zone. The safe zone for civil-ians will be six kilometres wide and situated along theimportant M-4 highway. It will be jointly supervised bythe Russian and Turkish militaries.

The Syrian army had recaptured much of the highwayand the key town of Saraqib during its recent offensive.Many observers of the region describe the battle forSaraqib as the first open confrontation between thearmies of Turkey and Syria. Saraqib is situated at theconfluence of the M-4 and M-5 highways in eastern Idlib.The Russian Defence Ministry stated that it would de-ploy its forces to counter Turkish attempts to retake thetown. Rebel control of the town had blocked trafficbetween Damascus and Aleppo, Syria’s commercial cap-ital. The highways had come under the control of therebel forces soon after the civil war in Syria started inearnest in 2013.

Turkey has been loath to allow the Syrian govern-ment to retake Idlib, which is along its border. Erdoganfelt that a comprehensive Syrian military victory wouldsend hordes of civilian refugees into Turkey. When thewar started, Turkey had actually instigated Syrian civil-ians to cross over in order to manufacture a humanit-arian crisis that would provide the basis for open foreignmilitary intervention in Syria. But after Erdogan’sdreams of a quick-fire regime change failed to materialiseand the fighting intensified, around three million Syrianrefugees poured into Turkey.

The Erdogan government also feels threatened by thegrowing assertiveness of the Kurds. Turkey invadednorthern Syria last year with the aim of nipping in thebud the rise of an autonomous Kurdish-dominated state-let on its borders. A military defeat in Idlib would encour-age the Kurds to regroup and pose another challenge toTurkey. Erdogan wants to settle Syrian refugees in theKurdish-dominated areas of northern Syria.

In a televised address to the nation in February,Erdogan justified his targeting of Kurdish militias inSyria. “If we do not clear our borders of terrorists now, wemight have to fight bigger wars inside Turkey later on,” hesaid.

Turkey angered Russia and other governments in theregion by sending hundreds of rebel fighters it hadtrained to fight in Syria to Libya. It is helping the interna-tionally recognised government in Libya to fight againstthe forces of Khalifa Haftar, the warlord who controlsmuch of the country and its oil resources. Haftar has thetacit backing of Russia, France, Egypt, the United ArabEmirates and some other countries. The governmentbased in Tripoli survives on the military support of Tur-key, Qatar and a few other countries. Turkey’s interven-tion and the role of the Syrian rebels helped prevent thefall of Tripoli under the Haftar-led military juggernaut.

In early February, the Syrian army escalated itsground and air assault on the rebels holed up in Idlib with

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most potent militant group in Idlib is the Hayat Tahriral-Sham, led by fighters who until a couple of years agoswore allegiance to Al Qaeda. The group has been desig-nated as a “terrorist” outfit by the United Nations.

In the first week of March as fighting raged in Idlib,President Erdogan flew to Moscow to hold emergency

THE SYRIAN ARMY, WITH THE SUPPORT OFthe Russian Air Force, made a concerted effort to driveout the last remnants of the jehadi forces from the north-eastern Idlib province in early February. It is the onlySyrian province where the extremist forces are still hold-ing out with the support of the Turkish Armed Forces.But the latest onslaught by the Syrian army has madetheir presence tenuous. The Syrian government was de-termined to liberate every inch of its territory and removeforeign fighters from its soil.

The Syrian army launched an assault on Idlib inDecember 2019, signifying the collapse of the Sochiagreement of September 17, 2019. The army has beenmaking a steady advance since then in the province. TheSochi agreement had called for the establishment of“de-escalation zones” separating the Syrian army fromthe rebel forces. Under the agreement, the TurkishArmed Forces was supposed to remove all “radicalgroups” from the province by October 15, 2019, alongwith tanks, rocket launchers and artillery under theircontrol. Turkey had played a big role in the arming andtraining of the radical groups. Ankara failed to live up toany of the commitments it made in Sochi last year.

That is why the Syrian government ordered its milit-ary to start the much-delayed process of liberating Idlibprovince. By early February, the Syrian army had sur-rounded many Turkish army posts within Idlib whileinflicting heavy losses on the terrorist groups it wasbacking.

The Recep Tayyip Erdogan government, which hadmasterminded the abortive bid at regime change inDamascus with the open support of the West and theGulf monarchies, is still attempting a rearguard battle tocarve out an enclave in Idlib province to help providesanctuary for terror groups that have refused the Syriangovernment’s offers of amnesty and safe passage. The

RetakingIdlib

SYRIANS CLIMB atop Turkish military vehiclesas they attempt to block traffic on the M-4 highway,which links the Syrian provinces of Aleppo andLatakia, before the joint Turkish and Russianmilitary patrols arrive, at al-Nayrab, about 14 kmfrom Idlib on March 15.

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The Syrian army makes a concerted

effort to liberate every inch of Idlib

province from Turkish army-backed

jehadi forces. BY JOHN CHERIAN

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the support of Russia. The Syrian artillery shelling andair attacks killed more than 58 Turkish soldiers who hadforcefully intervened to help the jehadi forces. Turkeyhad initially alleged that it was the Russian Air Force thatwas involved in the attack that claimed 36 of its soldiers.The Russian Defence Ministry strongly denied the claimsbut at the same time insisted that Turkish troops “were inbattle formation with terrorist groups” when the attacktook place.

Turkey retaliated by launching “Operation SpringShield”, in continuation of its undeclared war on Syria,deploying 10,000 soldiers in Idlib, inside Syria. Turkeyclaimed that it had shot down two Syrian jets, eighthelicopters and a large number of tanks in retaliation forthe killing of its soldiers. Ankara claims to have killedmore than 2,000 Syrian troops. The figures trotted outare mainly for the consumption of a domestic audience.

Both sides have suffered heavy casualties but a full-scale war between Turkey and Syria has been avoided forthe time being. Such a war would have drawn in foreignpowers once again into the region and started a potentialface-off between Russia and the North Atlantic TreatyOrganisation (NATO).

The European Union foreign policy chief, Josip Bor-rell, issued a warning that the serious military clashes inSyria could quickly escalate “into a major open interna-tional military confrontation”. The U.N. Secretary-Gen-eral, Antonio Guterres, issued an appeal to both sides to“step back from the edge of further escalation”.

T U R K E Y T H R E A T E N S T O O P E N B O R D E R S

In the wake of the looming confrontation with Russiaover Idlib, Erdogan called for military help from hisNATO partners, but the NATO headquarters in Brussels

did not oblige. Turkey then threatened to open its bor-ders once again and allow refugees to flood Europe. Infact, Ankara briefly allowed some refugees to cross intoGreece and neighbouring European countries, prompt-ing strong protests from Brussels and the European gov-ernments.

Erdogan has been saying that if the West does nothelp him find a solution to the refugee problem, he hasthe option of letting them loose. Already more than ahundred thousand Syrian citizens have been given Turk-ish citizenship, and this has not gone down well with thegeneral populace. A range of opposition parties want theexpulsion of Syrian refugees.

The U.S. has adopted a “carrot-and-stick” policy withTurkey. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said that theU.S. was evaluating Turkey’s request for military aid. “Wefirmly believe that our NATO partner Turkey has the fullright to defend itself from the risk that is being created bywhat [Bashar al-] Assad, the Russians and the Iraniansare doing inside of Syria,” Pompeo said in the first week ofMarch. But Defence Secretary Mark Esper and the U.S.Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. Mark Milley,told Congress that the Donald Trump administrationhad no plans to “re-engage in the civil war” in Syria.

The Trump administration indicated that Turkeywould have to first disentangle itself from close politicaland economic ties it had established with Russia to bene-fit from any meaningful military help. The U.S. andNATO are particularly unhappy with Turkey’s deal topurchase the sophisticated S-400 surface-to-air missilesfrom Russia. In February, after its forces suffered a milit-ary reverse, Turkey specifically asked the U.S. to deployits Patriot missile batteries along its border with Syria tocounter Russian and Syrian air power. Washington re-fused to oblige. The Russian Air Force is in full control ofthe air space over the Idlib province.

R U S S I A - T U R K E Y T I E S

Bilateral relations between Russia and Turkey seem tohave been papered over for the time being following thenew agreement on Idlib. The Putin-Erdogan summitemphasised the durability of bilateral relations. Er-dogan said the relations between the two countrieswere “at a high point” although Turkey had to makesignificant concessions, including accepting a new “de-escalation zone”, which reflected the advances made bythe Syrian army. Both sides have reaffirmed their com-mitment to the sovereignty and territorial integrity ofSyria.

The majority of Turkey’s fortified “observation posts”are now surrounded by Syrian forces. Meanwhile, theSyrian government has stressed that it will not rest untilit liberates every inch of its territory. “Syria fights terror-ism on behalf of the whole world and it will continue to doso until it fully liberates Syrian land,” said BouthainaShaaban, President Bashar al-Assad’s political and me-dia adviser. She said the ceasefire deal was possible onlybecause of the major gains and sacrifices made by theSyrian army. m

RUSSIAN PRESIDENT Vladimir Putin (right) and hisTurkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan during thepeace talks in Moscow, Russia, on March 5.

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YANIS VAROUFAKIS IS AN INTERNATIONALLYknown Marxist economist and a Greek politician whoserved as Minister of Finance in Greece from January2015 to July 2015. At present, he is engaged in mobilisingpeople for a better and inclusive world with a progressiveeconomic and political vision. Before entering activepolitics, he taught economics at various universitiesacross the world, including the University of Cambridge,the University of Sydney and the University of Athens. AsFinance Minister, he led negotiations with Greece’s cred-itors during the government debt crisis. After Greecesurrendered to the austerity demands of the EuropeanCommission and accepted another loan without debtrestructuring, Yanis resigned from Alexis Tsipras’ Syriza(Coalition of the Radical Left) government on July 6,2015. Since then, he has been actively involved in politicsin Europe, and Greece in particular. In February 2016, helaunched the Democracy in Europe Movement 2025(DiEM25) with the aim of transforming the EuropeanUnion (E.U.). It is an alliance of “people of the Left andliberalism, greens and feminists”.

On the formation of DiEM25, he says: “The main ideais twofold. First, since our main crises [private and publicdebt, banking, poverty, xenophobia, and climate] aretransnational, we need a transnational movement, with asingle, coherent agenda. Secondly, political parties thatconfine themselves to the nation-state are no longerrelevant to the struggle against globalised banking andauthoritarianism. On the basis of a new transnationalpolitics, and with our Green New Deal as a unifyingagenda, we are seeking to unite workers, the precariouslyemployed, intellectuals, etc.”

In March 2018, he founded the European RealisticDisobedience Front (MeRA25), the “electoral wing” ofDiEM25 in Greece with the stated aim of freeing Greecefrom “debt bondage”. MeRA25 secured nine seats in theHellenic Parliament. Yanis returned to Parliament in2019. In December 2018, he launched Progressive Inter-national, a grass-roots movement for global justice withthe United States Senator and Democratic Party leader,Bernie Sanders. He supports and advocates the idea ofbasic income.

For a global movementwith a radical agendaInterview with Marxist economist and former Greek Finance Minister

Yanis Varoufakis. BY J I P S O N J O H N & J I T H E E S H P . M .

YANIS VAROUFAKIS: ”If anything, the first few pages ofthe Communist Manifesto describe today’s globalisationfar more pertinently than it described 19th or 20th centurycapitalism. “

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Yanis has authored several bestselling books address-ing issues such as the European debt crisis, the financialimbalance in the world and game theory. They includeAdults in the Room, And the Weak Suffer What TheyMust?, The Global Minotaur, Foundations of Economics:A Beginner’s Companion, Economic Indeterminacy, andA Game Theory: A Critical Text.

Yanis contributes articles to Project Syndicate, TheGuardian, The New York Times, CNN, The Economist,The New Statesman, Financial Times and other interna-tional publications.

In this interview, the first to Indian media, Yanisspeaks elaborately on the 2019 British election, Brexit,the E.U. crisis, the 2020 U.S. presidential election, theglobal financial crisis, rising ultra-national forces, theneed for a progressive international movement, theDiEM25, rising inequality and the Greek crisis. Excerpts:

How important is this year’s U.S. presidential electionfor the world? What were the challenges BernieSanders faced in electoral politics? What did you lookfor in Sanders’ candidature? How do you view PresidentDonald Trump’s years in the White House?Every American election is significant given that its pur-pose is to elect the most powerful political operative inthe world. However, none will be as crucial as the onethat took place in 2016. Donald Trump’s election [thatyear] was transformational. Even if the liberal establish-ment returns to the White House, for instance a JoeBiden presidency, there will be no going back to theearlier model of U.S. hegemony. What died in 2016 wasthe post-War pattern of U.S. domination of a coordin-ated alliance of Western powers, with the U.S. determin-ing the common line, and Europe, on the one hand andJapan-Australia-New Zealand on the other toeing thatline. The new, Trumpian model of U.S. hegemony isbased on what I call the bicycle wheel principle: The U.Sbeing the hub and all other powers the spokes of thewheel that is global political economy.

Trump correctly discerned that the multilateralNATO-G20-ANZUS-TTIP-TPP [North Atlantic TreatyOrganisation-Group of 20-Australia, New Zealand,United States Security Treaty-Transatlantic Trade andInvestment Partnership-Trans-Pacific Partnership]model was incapable of reproducing the U.S. hegemonyas the size of the U.S. economy shrank proportionately.But, the bicycle wheel principle is different in the sensethat the hub will always be stronger than any individualspoke.

In practical terms, this means that the U.S. downsizesor even blows up the institutions it helped create, NATO-G20-ANZUS-TTIP-TPP, and replaces them with bilat-eral agreements and relations. Trump’s loathing of theE.U. and his determination to fragment it [his supportfor Brexit, Marine Le Pen in the 2017 French presidentialelection, Matteo Salvini in Italy] must be seen in thiscontext. What will change if someone like Biden is elec-ted? Very little, I fear. Any member of the liberal estab-lishment, Democrat or Republican, that manages to

reclaim the White House will give some nice speeches,alluding to the importance of multilateralism, but, inpractice, will neither manage nor want to shift away fromTrump’s bicycle wheel model. And, thus, the world willcontinue to move in the direction of global feudalismunder the military and monetary hegemony of a U.S.decoupling increasingly from both the supply lines ofcountries such as China and global capitalist institutionssuch as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and theWorld Trade Organisation (WTO).

In this context, only Sanders could make a real differ-ence. He is the only potential U.S. President who coulddo what Franklin D. Roosevelt did to Herbert Hoover-like policies that every other President would continue.This is precisely why he was targeted the same way that[Labour leader] Jeremy Corbyn was in the UnitedKingdom.

You ask me about the challenges Sanders faced in thiselectoral year. His greatest foe is the Democratic Party’sbureaucracy and power brokers. As in 2016, they wouldmuch rather see Trump re-elected than Sanders win. IfSanders wins the primaries, the Democratic Party appar-atchiks will do their damnedest to re-elect Trump, ex-actly as the so-called radical centre of the Labour Partywas so relieved that Boris Johnson beat Corbyn.

I suppose that the lesson that progressives all over theworld must draw from the United Kingdom and the U.S.,from the Corbyn and Sanders experiences is this: centristparties that used to be in the business of civilising capital-ism, of restoring some balance between capital and la-bour, have become the greatest brake on progressivepolitics. Why? Because they were central in, first, un-

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leashing the financial genie that caused 2008 [recall thatit was Democrat and Labour administrations that dereg-ulated fully Wall Street and the City of London in the1990s] and, then, were central during 2009 in re-floatingthe bankers after their paper pyramids collapsed. Inshort, since the 2008 crash of Western financialisedcapitalism, centrists have been responsible for imple-menting socialism for the financiers and harsh capital-ism for the many. The resulting discontent led to twointertwined phenomena: the nationalist internationalled by Donald Trump, on the one hand, and centristparties, on the other hand, whose top priority is to pre-vent progressives like Sanders and Corbyn from challen-ging the nationalist international.

The 2020 U.S. presidential election must be seenthrough this prism. It is why the Progressive Interna-tional is such an important project.

In the December 2019 British election, the ConservativeParty under Boris Johnson won a historic mandate. Howdoes it reflect on Britain’s domestic politics, the E.U. and

the world? What went against Corbyn although the

Labour had a promising manifesto?

There is a tendency to over-think this result. The situ-ation is clear: Johnson took advantage of the voters’collective fatigue with a never-ending Brexit process andof a Parliament incapable of making up its mind, to unitethe Leave vote under a single ticket and with a simpleslogan [Get Brexit Done!]. On the opposite side, theRemain vote was split between Labour, LibDems, theSNP [Scottish National Party] and Plaid Cymru [Partyof Wales]. The final result was the culmination of theworst own goal in British politics scored by the hardRemainers who, on the one hand treated Leavers likevermin and on the other they attacked Corbyn, the onlyleader who could deliver them the second referendumthey craved for.

Corbyn’s assessment, which has been ridiculed adnauseam since it was delivered, was right: Labour wonthe argument but lost the election. What he meant, andwhere he was right, was that the Labour manifesto reson-ated with the views of a large majority: On the need for amassive investment in a green industrial revolution; for aNational Investment Bank to work in conjunction withthe Bank of England; for the extension of the NationalHealth Service to a National Care Service; for transfer ofshares from capital to labour; for an end to the U.K.’scarte blanche support of foreign wars. Alas, none of thatmattered in the end. Why?

Brexit eclipsed the popularity of the Labour mani-festo because of the coup in the Labour party and, inparticular, by The Guardian and the BBC. Ever sinceCorbyn was elected leader of the Labour party, thecentre-left’s establishment made it its top priority tooverthrow him. A series of coups took place within theparty, but they failed because hundreds of thousands ofnew members kept supporting Corbyn. The plotters werebanking on the 2017 general election, hoping that aterrible result would help them oust a party leadershipthat challenged the privileged classes’ capacity to repro-duce their privileges by co-opting the young and theworking class. Alas, in 2017 the then Prime Minister,Theresa May, made the error of going to the polls beforeshe had an over-ready Brexit deal. That gave Corbyn theopportunity to campaign on the basis of an anti-auster-ity, progressive Labour manifesto. The result was a re-markable 40 per cent of the vote and denying the Toriesan overall majority.

From the next day, the internal campaign to unseatCorbyn took a nastier turn: they attacked his character,with anti-Semitism as the tip of their spear. And theyridiculed, as indecisiveness, his worthy attempt to behavelike an honest broker of unity between working-classLeavers and Remainers.

For two years The Guardian and the BBC adoptedtwin tactics. First, they chose a turn of phrase wheneverthey referred to Corbyn that indirectly, but surely, insinu-ated that he was of suspect character and, most certainly,an enabler of anti-Semitism. Secondly, and morepoignantly, they pushed hard the view that “they are allthe same”, successfully building on the majority’s dislikeof politicians by portraying everyone, from Johnson andNigel Farage to Corbyn and John McDonnell, as differ-ent sides of the same coin. Moreover, their incessantcampaign to cancel Brexit by any means helped turnprogressive Leavers away from a Labour party in whichCorbyn struggled to keep Leavers and Remainers unitedby keeping alive the prospect of resorting to…demo-cracy—to a second referendum.

Given that most of the media were always in thepocket of the Tory party, ready and willing to promoteJohnson when it mattered, having the only outlets ofanti-Brexit, non-Tory, opinion (The Guardian and theBBC in particular) taking a neutral stance on the basis of“they are all the same” proved a decisive advantage for theincumbent Tories. If “they are all the same”, why not votefor Johnson, who will at least end once and for all theBrexit saga? Thus, Brexit trumped the popularity of La-

BRITISH PRIME MINISTER Boris Johnson (right) andLabour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn during the stateopening of Parliament on December 19, 2019. “Brexiteclipsed the popularity of the Labour manifesto becauseof the coup in the Labour party,” Yanis says.

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“How do I place China? Certainly not a socialist country, it is

nevertheless a fascinating experiment in combining markets,

planning, common purpose, individuality, high technology and a

refreshing scepticism over globalised finance.”

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bour’s manifesto, giving a magnificent opportunity toCorbyn’s opponents within Labour to take back the lead-ership of the working class’ party and, once more, turn itagainst the working class, against the precariously em-ployed, against the young (who voted overwhelmingly forCorbyn), against those on the fringes of a failing Britishcapitalism.

The lesson from the 2019 U.K. general election is thesame as the lesson from Greece’s 2015 referendum: Atcrucial moments when people get a chance to win power,their worst enemy emerges not within the ranks of theestablishment’s servants but within their own progress-ive block’s, or party’s, nomenklatura.

Britain is no longer a member of the E.U. What would beits political and economic implications in theinternational system and Europe, in particular? Wouldother E.U. member-countries choose the path of Britainin the future?The main impact will be on the E.U. itself. Already, thefunding gap that the U.K.’s departure caused has made itnecessary for Brussels to distribute cuts among the re-maining member-states. The E.U., like all cartels, is quitegood at distributing gains but awful at distributinglosses. It is not so much the missing money. What mat-ters is the manner in which the need to distribute losses isexposing existing rifts within the E.U.. While I do notenvisage other ‘exits’, Brexit is already causing the exist-ing bonds within the E.U. to weaken. The E.U.’s greatestdanger, therefore, is that policy agendas on migration,banking, debt, etc., are re-nationalising. In the limit, theE.U. runs the serious danger of ending up formally intactbut, in reality, an empty shirt. And would that not bemusic in Trump’s ears?

Because of the memories of the World Wars and thetraumatic past experiences, most of the European Leftis more in favour of an integrated Europe and alsosceptical about the demands for exit or separation. Youwere personally against Brexit. Why so? Don’t you smella ‘revolt against Capital’ in Brexit? You advocated‘Greece exit’ earlier when Greece was in the crisis. Whytwo different positions?Brexit and Grexit are like chalk and cheese: very, verydifferent propositions. Brexit was a home-made cam-paign and aspiration. It reflects an essential incongruitybetween British and Continental capitalism and, import-antly, a commitment of the British [bourgeoisie andworking class] to parliamentarianism that is absent onthe continent. In contrast, Grexit was never a home-grown campaign in Greece. In fact, Grexit was a threatinvoked by the European establishment to make Greeceaccept new loans to pass on to the French and Germanbanks: “Take these loans on condition of stringent aus-terity or we throw you out of the eurozone.” Also, whereasBrexit was about exiting the E.U. by a member-state thatnever adopted the euro, Grexit was about Greece return-ing to its national currency [exiting the eurozone] butnot the E.U. itself. You are correct to say that I cam-

paigned against Brexit. Why? Because it was always go-ing to reinforce the British ruling class, divideprogressives and magnify xenophobia. The events of thelast year or so confirmed this prediction. As for Grexit,while I never advocated it, my reply to the Europeanestablishment was clear: If you are forcing us to choosebetween permanent debtor’s prison and Grexit, we shalltake Grexit, thank you very much.

How would you trace the economic and political interestbehind the establishment of the E.U.? You had earliersaid that “Europe is disintegrating”. Whether Brexit andsimilar demands point to a fundamental discontentagainst the E.U. set-up other than just reading thesedevelopments as demands of right-wing populism?Also, Alternative for Deutschland (AfD) campaigned for“Germany exit” from E.U. ahead of the Europeanelection last year.

The E.U. was set up as a big business cartel, inimical evento bourgeois democracy. Following the 2008 global fin-ancial crisis, the E.U. began to disintegrate. To keep ittogether, its establishment imposed a class war againstthe weak across Europe [from Greece to Germany andfrom Latvia to Portugal] while printing mountains ofmoney to re-float the failed banks. Is it any wonder thatgood, progressive people began to question the desirabil-ity of this E.U.? However, it is one thing to come up withthe above diagnosis and it is quite another to advocate thedisintegration of the E.U. The latter will only blow freshwind into the sails of deflation and the ultra-Right. As forthe fact that the ultra-right has advocated exiting/disin-tegrating the E.U., it reinforces my point and reminds usof how in the 1920s and the 1930s, the Fascists followedthe strategy of adopting elements of the Left’s critique ofexisting institutions before taking them over andweaponising them against the people.

As a Finance Minister of Greece in 2015, you presentedthe Greece Debt Restructuring plan before theestablishment of Brussels. What were your keysuggestions in the “debt restructuring plan” then toaddress the crisis?I knew that the German government could not “sell” anoutright haircut to the German Parliament. So, to make itmore palatable for them, I proposed a series of debtswaps. For instance, swapping existing debt obligations

that specified fixed interest rates and repayments withnew bonds specifying repayments and interest rates thatwere analogous to Greek gross domestic product [GDP]size and growth rate. More precisely, I was proposing tolink the total amount to be repaid by, say 2040, toGreece’s total GDP between 2015 and 2040 and the rateof repayment to the rate of Greece’s GDP growth.

What was the reason put forward by the establishmentin Brussels for not accepting your plan of restructuringGreece’s debt?No economic reason whatsoever. In fact, behind closeddoors they agreed that it was the obvious thing to do.Alas, they rejected it because the German leaders had liedto Germany’s Parliament in two ways. First, they had toldtheir members of parliament that the loans were for theGreek people, covering up the fact that they were abailout of French and German bankers. Secondly, thatthey would get every penny back from the Greek state,even though they knew perfectly well that it was im-possible to retrieve monies lent to an insolvent entity,especially if you forwarded the loans on conditions ofstringent austerity that would shrink the already lowincomes of the insolvent. Tragically, having issued theselies in Germany’s federal parliament, the German Chan-cellor did not want to return with a debt restructuringproposal that, in effect, was tantamount to an admissionthat she had lied to them. In short, they rejected myproposals in order to avoid admitting to having lied totheir own people—a rejection that, interestingly, costtheir taxpayers serious money (in the sense that myproposals would have allowed the Greek state to repaymore of its loans in the long run).

The Greek debt crisis and the ultimatum given by thetroika (the European Commission, the European CentralBank (ECB) and the IMF) in 2015 was a classic caseexposing the face of institutions such as the IMF and theECB. As the Finance Minister of Greece at that time,could you speak about the unfolding of the crisis? My precise expression was that it was as if the eurozonecrisis, which erupted in Greece before spreading like abushfire across Europe, was designed. No one intendedit, of course. But, the crisis was inevitable given the designof the euro, Europe’s common currency. Think about it:They created a central bank, the ECB, without a state tohave its back during a crisis while, at the same time, 19states shared did not have a central bank to have theirback [since the ECB was banned from monetising thestates on whose behalf it issued the euro].

To boot, they preserved separate banking systems [aGerman, an Italian, a Greek, and so on] that had to bebailed out, without any help from the ECB, by the na-tional governments, which could not rely on the ECBeither. The sequential bankruptcy of states and bankswas, therefore, a designer feature of the eurozone. Thefact that it was not the intention of the euro’s designersdoes not make it less of a designer feature of the commoncurrency they produced.

DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL hopefuls former U.S.Vice President Joe Biden and Senator Bernie Sandersgreet each other with an elbow bump as they arrive forthe 11th Democratic Party 2020 presidential debate in aCNN Washington Bureau studio in Washington, D.C., onMarch 15. “His [Sanders] greatest foe is the DemocraticParty’s bureaucracy and power brokers. As in 2016,they would much rather see [Donald] Trump re-electedthan Sanders win.”

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Even a leftist government that came into office with thepromise of a restructuring plan different from that ofthe troika, surrendered before the troika. It led to yourresignation from the Cabinet.You have to ask them. The moment my comrades, thePrime Minister in particular, surrendered, I resigned,joined many progressives around Europe to form theDemocracy in Europe Movement and, eventually, to re-turn to Greece’s Parliament to carry on the fight thatmust be fought against the orchestrated misanthropythat passes for economic policy.

What are the lessons nations, especially countries of thetricontinental, should learn when dealing withinternational agencies. What does the case of Greecetell the world?It is a lesson that has been learnt a long time ago, duringthe developing world’s debt crisis in the 1970s and the1980s, in the case of South East Asia in the late 1990s,and today in Ecuador and Argentina. And it is this. TheIMF operates as a bailiff on behalf of international credit-ors. Their job is to come in after a government fails tomeet its debt repayments and impose, in exchange ofstabilising the currency, cruel conditions that amount tothe expropriation of the majority’s assets and publicservices. The trick is to, in the first place, avoid a build-upof debts to foreign financiers in a currency that your statedoes not control and, if this has failed, to be ready to shunthe IMF even if the price is a default and a sharp devalu-ation of one’s currency. Accepting IMF loans on condi-tions that turn your country into a debtors’ prison is nevera good idea, whatever the local oligarchy [who alwaysbenefit from IMF programmes] say.

In this context, it is worth quoting the idea of delinkingchampioned by Marxists such as the late Samir Aminand Prabhat Patnaik. They talk about the delinking ofThird World countries from the vortex of globalisation.As an economist and a politician, what is your take onthis idea? What are its practical implications? How coulda country not willing to bow down before the neoliberalfinancial capital meet the transitional economicdifficulties when it dares to delink and also maintain analternative path of economic development? Boliviadeclared total independence from the World Bank andthe IMF. Yet, its economic indicators show improvement.As I already said, it is crucial to delink from private loansthat are denominated in a foreign currency or a currencythat your government does not control. This is what iscrucial, since it immunises you to IMF interventions.This does not mean, of course, turning to autarky. Jointventures, collaborating with foreign companies on thebasis of mutual advantage, technology transfers, etc.,cannot and should not be avoided.

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Along with democrats from various political traditions—green, radical Left and liberal—you founded DiEM25 to

repair the E.U. What are you looking forward to “repair”through such a movement? How do you propose to“mobilise, organise and hold” the movement? What arethe alternatives you are looking at to see this movementthrough?Our objective is not to repair the E.U. but to transform it.You repair something that used to work well but is notbroken. The E.U. was always a big business, anti-demo-cratic cartel which could not handle the 2008 crisis andits aftermath without massive doses of misanthropy. Thisis why DiEM25 is not about its repair but its transforma-tion. The main idea is twofold. First, since our main crises(private and public debt, banking, poverty, xenophobia,climate) are transnational, we need a transnationalmovement, with a single, coherent agenda. Secondly,political parties that confine themselves to the nation-state are no longer relevant to the struggle against global-ised banking and authoritarianism. On this basis, of anew transnational politics, and with our Green New Dealas the unifying agenda, we seek to unite workers, theprecariously employed, intellectuals, and others.

On the issue of inequality, Thomas Piketty’s researchand proposal for a global wealth tax has received muchappreciation in many progressive and liberal circles.How could it be implemented in a world context wherebig capitalists control every organ of states in mostparts of the globe? You proposed universal wealthdividend. Could you elaborate?I have no quarrel with a wealth tax, except that it won’t domuch either to restore justice or to stabilise capitalism.Take for instance Elizabeth Warren’s proposed wealthtax, the most radical variant of Piketty’s idea. If imple-mented, it will not raise more than 1 per cent of thenational income.

In my view, nothing will do short of redistributingproperty rights over capital. A first step is DiEM25’suniversal basic dividend. It would work very simply bymaking it a legal obligation of all large companies to pass,say, 10 per cent of their shares to an international wealthfund, with the accumulating dividends divided amongstthe population. A second step would be to increase thatpercentage in proportion to automation. A third stepwould be to re-write corporate law. My dream would beto live in a world where shares are non-tradable andwhere each member of staff has a single share grantingher or him a single vote on all matters pertaining tomanagement and to the distribution of a firm’s net reven-ues. That would end the wage-profit divide, indeed itwould end… capitalism!

You say that “social democratic new deal paradigm isfinished and it cannot be revived”. Could you explain? Social democracy lost its soul when social democrats[from the SPD in Germany, Tony Blair’s Labour, BillClinton’s Democrats, and so on] got into bed with thebankers, cutting a deal according to which social demo-crats would let the bankers run riot and the bankers, inreturn, would give them a cut to finance their campaigns

and, partly, the welfare state. So, when in 2008 bankerswent bust social democrats lacked both the analyticalpower and the moral strength to expropriate the bankerswhile saving the banks. Instead, it acted as social demo-crats that imposed austerity on the many and socialismfor the bankers. That’s when the social democratic pro-ject died.

Can it be revived? No, it can’t be. Global capitalismcan no longer be restrained by national governmentsseeking some historic compromise between national in-dustrial capital and the nation’s trade unions. We nowneed a transnational movement which targets both fin-anciers and multinationals. Social democrats are neitherinterested in nor capable of being part of such a move-ment. This is why we created DiEM25. This is why we areworking hard to put together a Progressive International,to which we invite our friends and comrades from Indiato be part of.

How do you analyse the present state of capitalism?Capitalism suffered a large blow in 2008, inaugurating athird post-Second World War phase that poses a lethalthreat both to capitalism and to humanity.

The first phase [Bretton Woods, 1944-1971] wasbased on a highly regulated global system with fixedexchange rates, capital controls and a U.S. whichprovided the global currency but which also recycled itssurpluses to Europe and Asia, thus stabilising capitalism.That phase ended when the U.S. turned from a surplus toa deficit economy and could no longer stabilise globalcapitalism without becoming insolvent.

The second phase began with the end of the fixed

exchange rate regime [of Bretton Woods] and was typi-fied by the important role of the U.S. current accountdeficit which provided huge demand to net exporters inEurope and in Asia, in exchange for 70 per cent of Asianand European profits that flowed back into Wall Street,thus closing the loop and funding the U.S. [currentaccount and government budget] deficits. On the back ofthese capital flows, Wall Street built up financialisation,which in 2008 imploded.

The third phase began with that 2008 implosion.Even though the policy of bailouts for the bankers andausterity for the people re-floated banking and returnedthe U.S. current account deficit to its original levels, WallStreet and the rest of global finance could not recovertheir capacity to fund investment in real capital. Thus,since 2008 capitalism suffers a massive imbalancebetween savings and investment, leading to low-qualityjobs and negative interest rates. The remarkable techno-logical innovations [the rise of machine learning, 3Dprinters, etc.] that come on top of this failure to balancesavings and investment are now magnifying the politicaland economic pressures upon globalised capitalism. Bar-barism, xenophobia and Donald Trump are mere symp-toms of this congruence.

“The old is dying and the new cannot be born; in thisinterregnum a great variety of morbid symptomsappear.” Antonio Gramsci explained the inter-Warperiod thus. Would you draw a similar conclusion aboutthe present world situation?Absolutely. This is why it is crucial that we speed up theevolutionary process, by means of a radical, transnationalmovement with a radical, transnational agenda that caninspire peoples from across the world: to help the new beborn and end the interregnum that only benefits thevarieties of authoritarianism damaging humans and theplanet.

There is an upsurge of right-wing nationalist/fascistmovements across the spectrum of the globe indifferent forms. This phenomenon can’t be analysed inisolation from the trajectory of neoliberal capitalism andits predatory nature. Samir Amin called it “the return offascism in the contemporary capitalism”. And you saidthat the 2008 financial crisis also is one of the reasonsfor such an uprising. How dangerous is the threat? Isthere enough “political infrastructure” to counter it?2008 was not one of the reasons: it was the reason, inprecisely the same way that the crash of 1929 was thereason that the dark side of humanity took over, leadingto tens of millions of deaths.

On November 30, 2018, you formed ProgressiveInternational. Is it a political counter to right-wingupsurge?Yes, I believe Progressive International is the onlyweapon we have against, on the one hand, global financeand, on the other, the nationalist international that thecrash of 2008 has given rise to. This is why, together with

PRIME MINISTER Alexis Tsipras (right) and Varoufakis,at the Greek parliament in Athens on February 18, 2015.

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Sanders; Katrin Jakobsdottir, the Prime Minister of Ice-land; Fernando Haddad, Lula’s stand-in candidate inBrazil; and many others we inaugurated Progressive In-ternational in Vermont [U.S.] in November 2018.

Developments in 2019 proved beyond doubt the Pro-gressive International’s importance. To put it bluntly, theprogressives’ lack of coordination, of a common pro-gramme, of common institutions, led to 2019 being ourcollective annus horribilis all over the globe: From theE.U, where in May 2019 European Parliament election,regressives and authoritarians triumphed, to the unchal-lenged dominance of Narendra Modi, Boris Johnson,Benjamin Netanyahu, Jair Bolsonaro, and the new con-servative Greek government. Everywhere we turned in2019 we saw progressives lost, defeated or, at the veryleast, on the back foot.

This is why in 2020 we shall do our utmost to giveProgressive International a boost. We begin in Februarywith the launch of a board comprising progressive lead-ers from around the world, each of whom will join notjust symbolically but in order to pursue a particularproject on behalf of Progressive International; e.g., toorganise a global trade union recruitment and coordina-tion exercise or a consumer boycott of multinationalspushing workers into precariousness and small businessinto bankruptcy. Then, in the Fall of 2020, we plan ourfirst large-scale event where a common programme and amanifesto will be hammered out.

You opinioned that Chinese economic management isthe most adorable in the world. And, China helped a lotin managing the 2008 financial crisis. Still, you havedifferences with the Chinese mode of governance. Howdo you see their economic growth and povertyalleviation in the last decades? Do you think China is stillon the socialistic track? If not, where do you placeChina?I opined that the Chinese government proved to be anadept macroeconomic manager and, also, that withoutChina’s massive investment drive after 2008, global cap-italism would have been in a far, far worse state.

What is my problem with China? The abject authorit-arianism, the manner in which workers have been denieda voice, the environmental damage wilfully inflicted…How do I place China? Certainly not a socialist country, itis nevertheless a fascinating experiment in combiningmarkets, planning, common purpose, individuality, hightechnology and a refreshing scepticism over globalisedfinance. Future socialist experiments have a lot to learnfrom contemporary China.

In Europe, the refugee influx has been used by right-wing political movements to increase their appeal. Itseems that not only the right but even liberal politicianshold anti-immigrant views. “Europe must curbimmigration to stop right-wing populists,” said theformer U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. Youcriticised her for this comment. Could you talk about theso-called “European refugee crisis”? How does the Left

politically engage with this?There is no such thing as a European refugee or immigra-tion crisis. Europe is large, rich and comprising half abillion people. One or two million wretched souls arriv-ing on our coasts and crossing our borders would nothave been an issue if it were not for the deep crisis ofEuropean capitalism which, as always, gives a splendidopportunity to xenophobes to jump on a soap-box andpoint the finger at the “brown people” as the reason forthe crisis.

How should the Left engage with this phenomenon?By denouncing politicians of the Hillary Clinton varietywho advocate “racism lite” as an antidote to the Right’sfull-blown racism. No version of racism can counter itstrue-blue variety. Only radical humanism can do it. Ittakes courage but it is our only option. This is whyDiEM25 states clearly: Let them in! Europe has beencolonising the world for 1,000 years. Now that we aregetting older, as a continent, the migration flows havereversed. No walls can change this. Let’s embrace theimmigrants. Let’s see them as a gift. Let’s fight fascismwith the only worthy weapon we have: radicalhumanism.

The world has changed in many ways from the time ofKarl Marx. How relevant is the analytical frameworkand revolutionary theory of Marxism in understandingour times and for changing the world?More than ever. If anything, the first few pages of theCommunist Manifesto describe today’s globalisation farmore pertinently than it described 19th or 20th centurycapitalism. As if to disgrace social democratic notions of amixed economy and a middle-class liberal democracy,capitalism has recently destroyed both the mixed eco-nomy and the middle class; as if to confirm Marx’s pro-gnostication that capital accumulation, once globalised,creates a dynamic that polarises humanity between a tinyruling class and a massive precarious proletariat.

You taught economics across the world beforeassuming the post of Finance Minister in Athens in 2015.While in office, you saw “how power and itsestablishments work”. As a Marxist, what did you learnabout the opportunities and limitations when workingwithin the state?That it is utterly possible to disrupt the establishment bymeans that even authentic liberals would approve (e.g.denying bailout funding from the IMF). And that theworst enemy is not the ruling class but, alas, our owncomrades who can ever so easily be lured by the establish-ment in surrendering—and, at once, turning against thecommon cause. m

Jipson John and Jitheesh P.M. are fellows atTricontinental: Institute for Social Research andcontribute to various national and internationalpublications, including The Hindu, The Caravan, TheIndian Express, The Wire, Frontline and Monthly Review.The writers can be reached at jipsonjohn10@gmail.comand jitheeshpm91@gmail.com.

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BANKING

INDIA’S biggest bank rescue actcould not have happened at a moreinopportune time. The collapse ofYes Bank—an oddly sounding namefor a bank that is now on life sup-port—and the rescue package initi-ated by the government divertsresources and distracts attentionfrom an unprecedented pandemicthat the government has its handsfull with. What happened on March5, when the Reserve Bank of India(RBI) announced a moratorium onwithdrawals from Yes Bank and atemporary takeover as its custodian,would have surprised only those whowere habitually used to looking theother way when there was ampleevidence that the private bank was aserial offender not just in terms ofbanking regulations but also interms of dressing up balance sheets.

The RBI’s “draft” reconstructionscheme did not leave much room fordoubt that the central bank was act-ing at the behest of the Finance Min-istry. The diminishing autonomy ofthe RBI in recent years, not only as aregulator but also as a systemicwatchman, had set the ground forthis directed script. In keeping withthe penchant for using other state-owned financial institutions—as wasthe case with Life Insurance Corpor-ation’s takeover of IDBI Bank in2018—the Yes Bank rescue is beingcompered by State Bank of India,India’s biggest bank.

Yes Bank had assets to the tune ofRs.3 lakh crore, but assets as definedin the banking industry are a pecu-liar artefact of accounting practices.

Assets in banking are actually loansthat have been extended, and theyare assets only because they generatereturns for a bank, which is whatassets are supposed to deliver. Butwhen assets turn bad, non-perform-ing assets (NPAs) in banking par-lance, they are very different from

the way assets function in otherrealms of the economy. An asset inthe hands of other entities can beliquidated to generate capital, but inthe case of a bank when an assetturns bad the bank starts bleeding itscapital base. Now for some specificcontext to the story of Yes Bank,

Rescue act, again

RANA KAPOOR, Yes Bank founder, in ED custody on March 8.

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By forcing SBI to take over Yes Bank, the government and the Reserve

Bank of India appear to have abdicated their responsibility to ensure

the systemic safety of the Indian banking system. BY V . S R I D H A R

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which was the darling of the mediafor its buccaneering spirit.

When the entire Indian bankingindustry was locked into a creditfreeze, partly because of its unwill-ingness to lend because of impairedbalance sheets and also the poor de-mand for credit following the eco-nomic slowdown, Yes Bank seemedto be on a different planet altogether.Its advances increased by a whop-ping 338 per cent between 2013-14and 2018-19 (see chart). The otherside of this apparently rosy picture ofa heavier loan book lay in its account-ing practices, of which the RBI wasfully aware as early as 2017. The RBIdiscovered huge holes in the bank’sbooks, especially in the manner inwhich it concealed NPAs in order toinflate profits.

Hemindra Hazari, the intrepidfinancial analyst well known forspeaking his mind, had pointed outin October 2017 that Yes Bank was aserial offender in this regard. Hepointed out that for fiscal year 2015-16 Yes Bank disclosed its gross NPAsas Rs.7,490 crore but the RBI estim-ated these to be Rs.49,257 crore, ashocking divergence of 558 per cent.Incidentally, the RBI also found di-vergences to the extent of 155 percent by Axis Bank and of about 20

per cent in the case of ICICI Bank.In the following year, 2016-17,

the sordid story was repeated.Whereas the Yes Bank managementreported gross NPAs of Rs.20,186crore, the RBI found these to actuallyamount to Rs.83,378 crore, a diver-gence of Rs.63,552 crore. Con-sequently, the net profit for 2016-17was scaled down from Rs.33,301crore as claimed by the bank, toRs.23,161 crore, a scaling down byRs.10,140 crore.

Obviously, this dressing of ac-counts was intended to conceal thetrue extent of provisions that neededto be made, with obvious con-sequences for profitability. In otherwords, the only reason for concealingthe NPAs was to boost profits asshown in its books. The RBI’s revi-sion resulted in the scaling down ofnet profit by a whopping 22 per centfor 2016-17. Not just that, the revi-sion also resulted in the scaling downof the bank’s capital base (Tier-1) byabout 4 per cent. Hemindra Hazaripointed out in a 2017 report that YesBank did not report this significantdivergence discovered by the RBI asit went shopping for a fresh bout ofequity injection (at Rs.1,500 a share)from institutional investors,amounting to $750 million, in

March 2017. He pointed out that thelead merchant bankers to the issuefailed to conduct due diligence. Haz-ari also pointed out that Yes Bankwas excessively top heavy even whencompared with its peers amongprivate banks. In 2015-16, for in-stance, Yes Bank, with assets ofabout Rs.1.65 lakh crore, had a “topmanagement” strength of 146,whereas ICICI Bank, commandingassets to the tune of Rs.7.09 lakhcrore, had a “top management” ofjust 32. Hazari also found a signific-ant churn in the extent of the “topmanagement,” which he character-ised as being odd.

Yet, the RBI, despite mountingevidence that it was well aware of thereckless ways of the top managementat Yes Bank, allowed the promoterand CEO, Rana Kapoor, to completehis term in January 2019. Neitherthe RBI nor the Finance Ministrythought it fit to send a clear messagethat it intended to curb the buccan-eer banker. The flurry of cases filedagainst him by the Central Bureau ofInvestigation (CBI) and the Enforce-ment Directorate serve no purpose asthe damage has already been done.In any case, these cases now underscrutiny have no relevance either tothe health of the bank or to bringing

AT A YES BANK branch in Mumbai, depositors waiting to withdraw money.

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him to book for having driven it tothe ground.

The normal process of bank-ruptcies cannot be allowed to pro-ceed in the case of banks, especiallylarge ones like Yes Bank, simply be-cause an uncontrolled collapse posessignificant systemic risk to the entirebanking system. A significant aspectof this relates to the need to protectthe interests of depositors, althoughthe Narendra Modi regime has timeand again tried to change the rules ofprotection but has only stalled in theface of protests.

S A V I N G A B A N K

So the question was never aboutwhether to save Yes Bank but abouthow to get it done. The choice of SBIas the adopting parent of a waywardchild is indicative of its sheer hypo-crisy. While the Modi governmenthas gone out on a limb arguing thatgovernments ought not to be in busi-ness, or that business institutionsought to focus sharply on their busi-ness interests, it nevertheless seesnothing wrong in thrusting a dudasset in the hands of its tallest childin the banking sector, SBI.

The restructuring plan that isnow operational makes Yes Bank allbut a subsidiary of SBI. It can own upto 49 per cent of the bank (currentlyjust below it), of which 26 per cent issubject to a lock-in of three years. Itis clear to anyone in the bankingworld that the capital infusion ofRs.10,000 crore needs to be followedby much, much more fund injection.Given the state of the economy andthe rising risk aversion, as evidencedby the collapse of markets world-wide, this is going to be a costly affairif it materialises at all. What thismeans is that SBI will need to throwmore good money after the bad it hasalready sunk in this venture.

Matters have been worsened bythe uncertainty surrounding YesBank’s Additional Tier-1 (AT-1)bonds valued at almost Rs.11,000crore. The initial draft restructuringplan advocated a complete write-offof these bonds, which are of a veryspecial class. Such bonds exist in“perpetuity” until they are extin-guished at certain pre-specified trig-

ger points. Since these bonds areakin to equity, which carry a highlevel of risk, all over the world theyare sold only to institutions, never toindividuals. But Yes Bank, in keepingwith its status as an innovator parexcellence, mis-sold them to retailcustomers too; moreover ProvidentFund and pension fund investmentshave also been made in these instru-ments, which are now in jeopardy.Faced with mounting protests, thedecision to cancel these bonds hasbeen kept out of the finalised schemefor restructuring the bank. However,since these instruments generallycarry a higher rate of interest, sup-posedly reflecting the higher risk as-sociated with them, it is now likelythat the interest rate on fresh issuesof such bonds in order to bolster thecapital base of the bank would resultin higher costs for the bank becauseof the higher risk premium that goeswith investments in a sagging bank.

The reliance on public sector

banks as saviours at a time when theyare already reeling under the burdenof NPAs is fraught with serious risk.The case of IDBI’s takeover by LIC isthe most recent example of how awell-performing institution issaddled with a dud asset. Even if oneaccepts the logic that only public sec-tor banks are available for such atakeover, there is nothing in eitherthe rule books or economic logic thatprevents the government from fund-ing the salvage operations. Both theRBI and the government, being re-sponsible for protecting the systemicsafety of the financial sector, have thepower as well as the wherewithal toundertake the task directly instead ofoffloading it to a bank, knowing fullywell that this poses systemic risk aswell. For now, the RBI has extendeda line of credit of Rs.60,000 crore.The fact that depositors have notmade a rush to the exit could well bebecause of these measures. But asmore NPAs come to light the line ofcredit may well be inadequate tostaunch their hurried exit.

It is possible that at some pointdown the road SBI may be forced totake over the rump of a bank that itnow holds albeit only partially in the-ory. If and when that happens, thefull weight of responsibility for hav-ing contrived a crisis at India’sbiggest bank would well fall on boththe RBI and the Finance Ministry.For now, a cover-up of sorts has beenmanaged as other weighty and ur-gent issues grab the attention of thecountry. m

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THANKS to a new discovery made by

scientists at Michigan State University

(MSU), led by Robert Quinn, and pub-

lished in the latest issue of “Nature”,

the textbook description of the role of

bile acids and their role in the human

digestive system is likely to change.

Much of our knowledge about bile

has not changed. Bile is produced in

the liver, stored in our gall bladder and

injected into our intestine when we eat,

where it breaks down fats.

The first bile acid was discovered

in 1848, and Heinrich Otto Wieland,

the German chemist who revealed

the structure of bile acids, won the

1927 Nobel Prize for Chemistry for

his work that he began in 1912. He had

isolated three bile acids and dis-

covered that they had similar struc-

tures and were structurally related to

cholesterol.

“Since then, our understanding of

the chemistry of bile production in the

liver was that the cholesterol back-

bone of the bile acid structure is linked

to the amino acids glycine or taurine to

produce our primary bile acids,” said

Quinn, the lead author of the study. “It

begs the question of how the new bile

entists from MSU, the University of

California San Diego and a number of

collaborating institutions, showed that

microbes in the gut produce unique

bile acids by conjugating the choles-

terol backbone with myriad other

amino acids. This represents a fifth

mechanism of bile acid metabolism by

the microbiome that greatly expands

our understanding of mammalian bile,

the release said.

While much of the study was con-

ducted in mice, these novel bile acids

were also found in humans. Interest-

ingly, the study found that these acids

are particularly abundant in the guts of

people suffering from gastrointestinal

diseases, such as Crohn’s disease and

cystic fibrosis.

“These molecules can alter sig-

nalling pathways in the human gut that

result in a reduction of overall bile acid

production, representing a new mech-

anism where our gut bacteria can ma-

nipulate our own physiology,” Quinn

said.

“Clearly, our understanding of

these compounds is in its infancy. This

exciting new discovery opens more

questions than answers about these

compounds and their role in our

health,” he said.

acids we've discovered have remained

hidden during the past 170 years of bile

acid chemical research.”

These new bile acids are not pro-

duced by our enzymes; they are made

by microbes in our gut. This discovery

will change how medical textbooks ad-

dress digestion, and it contributes to

an ever-growing body of knowledge

supporting the importance of the mi-

crobiome, the collective community of

bacteria and other microorganisms

living in our guts.

According to the MSU press re-

lease, Quinn’s team, comprising sci-

STRUCTURE of cholic acid, theprimary bile acid, showing relationshipto other bile acids.

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New bile acids discovered

A FIRST long-term analysis of

the impact of Bt cotton in India

has found that production gains

were due to changes in insect-

icide and fertilizer use and not

the adoption of Bt cotton itself.

The study has implied that the

intrinsically produced insect-

icide (Cry toxin) by the trans-

genic cotton, which has the Bt

gene genetically inserted, is not

good enough to combat insects

in the Indian context.

The analysis, published in

the journal “Nature Plants”, is

authored by Glenn Davis Stone,

anthropologist at Washington University in St. Louis, and

K.R. Kranthi, entomologist and the former director of In-

dia’s Central Institute for Cotton Research who is currently

at the Washington-based International Cotton Advisory

Committee. Genetically modified (GM) Bt cotton was intro-

duced in India in 2002 and today accounts for 90 per cent of

all cotton grown in the country. The apparent increased

yields and reduced pesticides have been used to justify its

large-scale cultivation. Bt cotton has been credited with

tripling cotton production between 2002 and 2014. But the

recent study dismisses the claim.

According to its authors, the production gains came

before widespread seed adoption and must be viewed in line

with changes in fertilization practices and pest population

dynamics.

“Since Bt cotton first appeared in India there has been a

stream of contradictory reports that it has been an unmitig-

ated disaster, or a triumph,” Stone said, noting the charac-

teristic deep divide in conversation about GM crops. “But

the dynamic environment in Indian cotton fields turns out to

be completely incompatible with these sorts of simplistic

claims.” The earlier positive assessments were based on

shorter time frames. The new study spans 20 years.

Stone said: “There are two devastating caterpillar pests

for cotton in India. From the beginning, Bt cotton did control

one of them, the American bollworm.... It initially controlled

other one too, the pink bollworm, but that pest quickly

developed resistance and is now a worse problem than

ever. Bt plants were highly vulnerable to other insect pests

that proliferated as more and more farmers adopted the

crop.” “Yields in all crops jumped in 2003, but the increase

was especially large in cotton. But Bt cotton had virtually no

effect on the rise in cotton yields because it accounted for

less than 5 per cent of India’s cotton crop at the time,” Stone

pointed out.

AN INDIAN farmerspraying pesticide to hiscotton field.

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Bt cotton no match for Indian pests

Stories compiled by R. Ramachandran

MEDICINE / MATERIALS SCIENCE/ BIOCHEMISTRY / AGRICULTURE

WHILE the greater use of electric vehicles might benefit the

environment, further growth hinges on continued availabil-

ity of critical battery components such as cobalt. Cell

phones and other electronics also depend on the element’s

availability. Supplies of cobalt are adequate in the short

term, but there could be shortages down the road if refining

and recycling are not ramped up or made more efficient,

according to research published in “Environmental Science

& Technology” of the American Chemical Society.

The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) provides

roughly 60 per cent of all mined cobalt, according to the

paper. The element is often recovered

as a by-product from mining copper

and nickel, meaning that the demand

and pricing for those metals affect the

availability of cobalt. Half of the cur-

rent supply of cobalt is incorporated

into cathodes for lithium-ion batteries,

and many of those batteries are used

in consumer electronics and electric

vehicles. Demand is increasing for these vehicles and their

batteries. To determine potential cobalt supply and demand

through 2030, Elsa Olivetti and co-workers analysed vari-

ables, including electric vehicle demand; cobalt mining,

refining and recycling capacity; battery chemistry trends;

socio-economic and political trends; and the feasibility of

substituting other materials for cobalt.

These variables could be affected by political instability

in the DRC, policy decisions favouring electric vehicles,

disruptions in China (which refines around half of the cobalt

supply), and fluctuations in copper and nickel prices. The

researchers feel cobalt supply is ad-

equate in the short term. They estim-

ate that supply will reach 320-460

thousand tonnes by 2030, while de-

mand will reach 235-430 thousand

tonnes. The team recommends that

the industry invest in additional effi-

cient refining and recycling capacity so

it can continue to meet demand.

High demand for Li-ion batteries can affect cobalt supply

IN a study published in a recent issue of “Nature”, scient-

ists from the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution

(WHOI) describe how micro-organisms survive in rocks

nestled thousands of feet beneath the ocean floor in the

lower oceanic crust. The first analysis of messenger RNA,

the genetic material containing instructions for making

different proteins, from this region, coupled with meas-

urements of enzyme activities, microscopy, cultures and

biomarker analyses, has provided evidence of a low bio-

mass but diverse community of microbes that includes

heterotrophs that obtain their carbon from other living (or

dead) organisms.

“Organisms eking out an existence far beneath the sea

floor live in a hostile environment,” says Paraskevi (Vivian)

Mara, a WHOI biochemist and one of the lead authors of the

paper. Very little resources find their way into the seabed

through seawater and subsurface fluids, which circulate

through fractures in the rock and carry inorganic and

organic compounds.

The researchers collected rock samples from the

lower oceanic crust, spending over three months aboard

the International Ocean Discovery Program Expedition

360. The research vessel travelled to Atlantis Bank, an

underwater ridge that cuts across the southern Indian

Ocean. Tectonic activity there exposes the lower oceanic

crust at the sea floor, “providing convenient access to an

otherwise largely inaccessible realm”, the authors write.

“We applied a completely new cocktail of methods to

explore these precious samples,” says Virginia Edgcomb, a

microbiologist at WHOI and the principal investigator of the

project. By isolating messenger RNA and analysing the

expression of genes, the researchers found evidence that

micro-organisms under the ocean floor express genes for

various survival strategies. Some microbes appeared to

have the ability to store carbon in their cells for use in times

of shortage. Others showed indications they could process

nitrogen and sulphur to generate energy, produce Vitamin

E and B12, recycle

amino acids, and

pluck out carbon

from the hard-to-

break-down com-

pounds called pol-

yaromatic

hydrocarbons.

The findings

provide a complete

picture of carbon cyc-

ling by illuminating

biological activity

deep below the

oceans.

Microbes deep beneaththe ocean floor

A STUDY reveals life in theplutonic rocks of the loweroceanic crust. Shown here is athin section photomicrographmosaic of one of the samples.

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LETTERS

ANNOUNCEMENT

Letters, whether by surface mail or e-mail,must carry the full postal address and the fullname, or the name with initials.

CORRECTION

In the article “Flash in the pan” (March 27), thefirst sentence of the second paragraph underthe subheading “Supreme Court’s record”should read as follows and not as published:“The human rights advocate... seeking regis-tration of FIRs against Anurag Thakur, KapilMishra, Parvesh Verma and Abhay Verma andtheir arrest.”

Delhi riots

THE orchestrated violence against the

minorities in Delhi is a serious threat to

the very foundations of democracy

(Cover Story, March 27). Sadly, the RSS

and its cohorts have succeeded in carry-

ing out their nefarious designs and gag-

ging rightful protests. One has to accept,

grudgingly, that the RSS brigade has

scored a pyrrhic victory. While its cynical

triumph is palpable, the response of the

secular parties has been muted. It is a

blot on the Fourth Estate that most of the

mainstream media have not exposed the

treachery of the Sangh Parivar and have

acted hand in glove with the BJP.

The naked communalism exhibited by

India’s rulers, in tandem with goons and

the security apparatus in Delhi, makes a

mockery of the basic tenets of the nation.

S. MURALI

VELLORE, TAMIL NADU

IT was sad and shocking that the cap-

ital, known for its rich cosmopolitan cul-

ture, was rocked by communal riots for

three successive days. The riots were a

calculated attempt by vested interests to

tear apart the fabric of society. That the

violence coincided with the visit of the

U.S. President Donald Trump to New

Delhi appeared to be part of a nefarious

design by anti-social/national elements

to show the nation in poor light.

Communal riots affect the common

man irrespective of his religion. The fail-

ure of the law enforcement agencies to

crack down on the rioters in the initial

phase of the riots made matters worse.

The reports of people protecting their

neighbours of a different faith in several

pockets of the riot-torn city were the only

silver lining.

Although the crisis has been defused,

all stakeholders need to strive to erase

the scars of the riots. It is also time for

citizens to redeem the pledge that they

are Indians first and last.

B. SURESH KUMAR

COIMBATORE, TAMIL NADU

THE high death toll in the riots is a

clear sign that they were pre-planned.

U.S. Democratic presidential hopeful

Bernie Sanders’ comments slamming

Trump for remaining silent on the riots,

which happened during his visit to India,

were shocking. Similarly, it was totally

unnecessary for the Organisation of Is-

lamic Cooperation to term the violence in

Delhi as alarming when it keeps silent

about the systematic blatant human

rights violations in Pakistan against the

minority communities.

As the situation was limping back to

normalcy, Congress leaders finding fault

with BJP functionaries when its own

leaders were coming out with various

statements to keep the pot boiling is a

clear indication that that there was lar-

ger conspiracy behind the whole episode.

K.R. SRINIVASAN

SECUNDERABAD, TELANGANA

INDIA slipped 10 places in Democracy

Index 2019 of the Economist Intelligence

Unit, and the press freedom index is

around 133 out of 180 (“The media cir-

cus”, March 27). Unlike in the West

where misinformation campaigns

backed by foreign elements have been

launched against countries, in India, it is

our very own political parties that are

churning out an enormous amount of

misinformation. We are routinely fed

fake news, rants and divisive propaganda

by television and social media platforms.

Deepfake, a recent technology innova-

tion, is making inroads into India’s media

landscape. Its insidious impact is to cre-

ate a society where people no longer care

to distinguish truth from fabrication. Di-

gital deception is the painless way to do

it.

Unfortunately, the media as a whole is

at the receiving end of a sustained cam-

paign against them. Disparaging com-

ments like “presstitute”, urban naxals

and fake news are made against them. A

free press and media are the guard rails

of democracy, without which the country

will slide into authoritarianism. In the

current climate, the media have now to

manage how news stories are handled,

which topics/events can be covered and

which ones have to be dropped.

H.N. RAMAKRISHNA

BENGALURU

Published on alternate Saturdays. Postal Regn. No. HQ/SD/506/2020-22, RNI No. 42591/1984