Climate change over the Yarlung Zangbo river basin during 1961–2005

Journal ofGeographical Sciences

@ 2oo7 science in China Press Sp血 ger_Ver1ag

DOI：10．1007／s11442-007-0409-Y

Climate change over the

Basin during 1961-2005

Yarlung Zangbo River

YOU Qinglong’一，KANG Shichang’ ，WU Yanhong ，YAN Yuping

1．Institute of Tibetan Plateau Reseamh，GAS，Beijing 1 00085，China；

2．Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences，Beijing 1 00049，China； 3．State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Science，Chinese Academy of Sciences，Lanzhou 730000，China

4．Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Reseamh，CAS，Beijing 1 001 01，China；

5．National Climate Center,Beijing 1 00081，China

Abstract：The Yarlung Zangbo River(YR)is the highest great river in the world，and its basin

is one of the centers of human economic activity in Tibet．Using 1 0 meteorological stations

over the YR basin in 1 961-2005．the spatial and temporal characteristics of temperature and

precipitation as well as potential evapotranspiration are analyzed．The results are as follows．

(1)The annual and four seasonal mean air temperature shows statistically significant in·

creasing trend．the tendency is more significant in winter and fal1．The warming in Lhasa river

basin is most significant．(2)The precipitation is decreasing fr0m the 1 960s to the 1 980s and

increasinfl since the 1 980s．From 1 961 to 2005．the annual and four seasonal mean precipi-

tation is increasing but not statistically significant．especially in fall and spring．The increasing

precipitation rates are more pronounced in Niyangqu and Palong Zangbo river basins，the

closer to the upper YR is，the less precipitation increasing rate would be．(3)The annual and

four seasonal mean potential evapOtranspiratiOn has decreased，especially aRer the 1 980s，

and most of it happens in winter and spring．The decreasing trend is most significant in the

middle YR and Nianchu river basin．(4)Compared with the Mt．Qomolangma region，Tibetan

Plateau，China and global average，the magnitudes of warming trend over the YR basin since

the 1 970s exceed those areas in the same period，and compared with the Tibetan Plateau，

the magnitudes of precipitation increasing and potential evapOtranspiratiOn decreasing are

larger,suggesting that the YR basin is one of the most sensitive areas to global warming．

Keywords：Yarlung Zangbo river basm；climate change；sensitivity

1 Introduction

The Yarlung Zangbo River(YR)，the main high Himalayan stem of Brahmaputra River，

originates from the Chamyungdung glacier at all elevation of 5200 m in south—central Tibet．

It is the highest great river in the world with a mean elevation of over 4000 m a．s⋯l and it is

Received：2007—06—15 Accepted：2007—08—16

Foundation：National Natural Science Foundation of China，No．40401054；No．40121101；CAS Hundred Talents Program；

President Foundation of the Chinese Academy of Sciences；Knowledge Innovation Project of CAS， No．KZCX3一SW -339；National Basic Research Program of China，No．2005CB422004

Author：You Qinglong(1980-)，Master,specialized in modem climate change．E—mall：yqingl@126．com

WWW．scichina．com www．springerlink．com

维普资讯 http://www.cqvip.com

4l0 Journal of Geographical Sciences

2229 km long with a drainage area of 2．4x 10 km—on the northern slope of the Himalayas in

the Tibetan Plateau(The Comprehensive Scientific Exploration Team to the Qinghai—Xizang

Plateau．1984)．The YR basin is located in the 29。9L31。9 N and 81。9 -97。1 E．and has five

tributaries with a drainage area of over 1．Ox 1 0 km一．which are Duoxiong Zangbo．Nianchu

River，Lhasa River，Niyang Qu and Palong Zangbo．Among them the Lhasa River is the

biggest with a drainage area of 3．3xl km fTang and Xiong．1998)．

The YR basin is a characteristic and sensitive area to environmental evolution．Some ex—

Derts have paid much attention to the environment of this basin．Desertification in the YR

basin is a comprehensive process relating with natural factors and human ones．and the cli—

matic change and human activities have almost equal influence and effect on the develop—

ment of desertjfication(Jin et a1．，1997；Dong et a1． 1999)．The rainfall of the YR basin oc—

curring between June to September during Indian summer monsoon accounts for 60％-80％

of the tota1 precipitation．From jts 1ower reach to the upper the annua1 rainfa11 decreased dis—

tinctly from more than 5000 mm to 3 1 0 mm due to the weakening effect of the monsoon

(Liu et a1．．1 999)．Study has shown the YR basin acts as a moi sture sink from May to Octo—

ber and as a moisture source during November—April(Zhang and Tao．200 1 1．From 1 957 to

1 998．there exists a significant ascending and descending trends for summer temperature and

rainfal1 in the middle reaches of the YR．and summer temperature and precipitation have an

oscillation period of 2-3 years(Zhou and Zhang，2000；Zhou et a1．，200 1)．The annual tem—

perature and precipitation exhibit an increasing tendency from 1 96 1 to 2000．but precipita—

tion decreases in the earlier 20 years．indicating that the cold wet occu~ed in the 1 960s and

the warm wet in the 1 990s(Du et a1．．2006；Bian and Du．2006)．In the context of unprece—

dented changes in global temperature．the present study updates the datasets for the YR ba—

sin．and reports characteristics changes in climate．We hope the results will be helpful to

provide the theoretical basis for water resources management and eco—environmental protec—

tion and so on．

2 Data and method

Climatic data from 1 0 meteorolo cal stations located over the YR basin are obtained from

the National Climate Center,China Meteorological Administration(Table 1、．Stations are

identified by their WMO(Wl0rld Meteorological Organization)number and Chinese name．

According to Figure 1 and Table 1．1 0 stations are located over the YR basin with stations

altitudes varying between 2736 m (Bomi)and 4488．8 m (Jiali)．Four stations are located

above 4000 m a．s．1．and only tWO stations are situated below 3000 m．Most meteOrOlOgical

stations were established in the mid一1950s．In order to obtain complete time series．we ana—

lyze the changing trend of climate over the YR basin during the period 1 96 1-2005．A few

missing data of the 10 meteorological stations are replaced by an average of values covering

other years．

The Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO、defined a standard Penman—Monteith

model(FAO—PM)which is considered to be universally applicable to calculate potential

evapotranspiration(ET)(Allen et a1．，1998；Gao et a1．，2006)．Therefore we use the

FAO—PM model to calculate ET in this study：


YOU Qinglong et a1．：Climate change over the Yarlung Zangbo River Basin during 1961—2005 411

Table 1 List of 10 stations over the YR Basin，including the W M O number,station name，latitude，longitude and

elevation fa．s．1．1

WM O：World M eteorological Organization

Figure 1 The sketch map of the YR basin and locations of meteorological stations

0．408(Rn )+Y T E =————————————三 —————一

△+Y(1+0．34u2)

where E iS potential evapotranspiration(mm·day_。)，A iS slope of saturation vapor pres—

sure curve fkPa．℃-1)， iS psychrometric constant(kPa·℃_。)，R iS net radiation

(MJ． 2 day_。)，G iS soi1 heat flux(MJ· ~．day_。)，T iS mean temperature at 2 m above

ground surface(℃)，“2 is wind speed at 2 m above ground surface(m。s )，P is mean

saturation vapor pressure(kPa)，and Pd iS actual vapor pressure(kPa)．

Linear regression analysis rleast squares method)iS used to detect trends in al1 time series

Linear regression during the period 1961—2005 over the YR basin iS performed on seasonal

and annual estimates of 1 0 stations．Seasons are defined as follows：winter(December


412 Journal of Geographical Sciences

- February)，spring(March-May)，summer(June-August)，and fall(September-November)

The statistical significance of the trends is assessed at the 5％ significant leve1．

3 Results and analyses

3．1 Trends of annual and seasonal temperature

The annual mean temperature has a decadal increasing trend．which is similar to the trend of

fall and winter,while there is fluctuated increasing trend in spring and summer(Table 2)．

The annual an d fa11 as well as winter decadal mean temperatures attain their peak values in

the 1 990s．The mi nimum temperature in summ er appears in the 1 970s and the maximum

temperature in spring occurs in the 1 990s．

Mean linear trends f0r the YR basin as a whole during the period 1 96 1-2005 have been

increasing in four seasons and annual variations fFigure 2)．A11 seasons and annual values

are significant at the 95％ significance leve1．The linear trend of an nual mean temperature is

0．28℃／decade．The greatest increase is found in winter(0．37℃／decade)，which is slightly

larger than fall f0．35*C／decade)．The annual trend is 0．24 and 0．17*C／decade in spring and

summeL respectively．

Table 3 presents the distilbutions of the trends f0r seasonal and annual mean temperature

over the YR basin．It seems that some stations are in agreement with their surroundings，

while Jiali is an exception．Jiali has a negative trend in spring and summer．Ma and Li(2003)

also reported the abnormity of Jiali and there was a decreasing trend in temperature bef0re

1983．which was caused by the discontinuity of local data records．Lhazi station was estab．

1ished in 1 978 and the drastic warm period began in the 1 980s．which causes the largest lin．

ear trends in Lhazi f0．45℃／decade)．Stations along the Lhasa river basin have statistically

significant warming trends and the chan ging amplitude was larger than other regions，espe-

cially in Lhasa r0．43℃／decade)． Linear trends in other stations range from

0．2-0．3℃／decade．

From Figure 2 and Table 3，we can draw the conclusion that warming of annual mean

temperature is mostly due to the warmer winter and fa11．Drastic warming up occurs in

spring in Nyingchi an d Lhazi，while warming in four seasons is almost the same．Although

there is an obvious warming in seasonal variations of temperature，the increase has spatial

difference．

Table 2 Decadal mean temperature over the YR basin(unit：℃)


YOU Qinglong et a1．：Climate change over the Yarlung Zangbo River Basin during 1961-2005 413

7

6

5

4

0．0

— 1．5

- 3．0

4．5

15

14

13

12

10

9

8

7

6

5

1970 1980 1990 2000 Year

Figure 2 Regional trends for annual and seasonal mean air temperature variations over the YR basin in

1961-2005(The solid line is linear trends，Lin stands for linear trend per decade and P for significance)

Table 3 Spatial distribution of seasonal and annual mean temperature trends over the YR basin in 1961-2005

(unit："C／decade，trends in bold reached the 5％ significance leve1)

p̂ 一2Il_EJ兰【【I∞Ij}B§ 窆



3．2 Trends of annual and seasonal precipitation

Rainfall happening in summer approximately accounts for 63％ of me total precipitation

because of the influence of monsoon fTable 4)，the annua1 precipitation and precipitation in

summer have a correlation coefficient of 0．96，and precipitation in fall is higher than spring

and winter．The annua1 precipitation has a decreasing trend in the 1 960s一1 980s，while pre—

cipitation in the 1 980s iS 1ess than in other decades．Atier the 1 980s，the annua1 precipitation

shows a significant increasing trend，the difierence between the maximum and minimum

precipitation iS 63．4 mm．The precipitation in spring and summer has a fluctuating variation．

Precipitation in spring has a decrease in the 1 960s and the 1 980s and an increase in the

1990s．while a decrease in the 1970s一1980s and an increase in the 1960s and the 1990s in

SUm m er

Figure 3 shows the variation of precipitation of four seasona1 and annua1 mean from

1961—2005．It can be seen that precipitation increases slightly and exhibits no statistically

significant trends．Regionally averaged annual precipitation has a nonsignificant positive

trend of 6．75 mm／decade．Increases amount to 3．74 mm／decade in fa11，3．38 mm／decade in

spring rpassing the 90％confidence test)，1．7 1 mm／decade in summer and 0．32 mm／decade

in winter．

The trend in annua1 precipitation in Nianchu fiver basin iS not distinct，Xigaze has a slight

increase and Jiangzi has a negative trend(Table 51．There iS a larger magnitude in trends in

most stations ranging from 7—73 mm／decade．Stations along the Niyang Qu and Palong

Zangbo have a great magnitude of 1inear trends．especially in Bomi(73．5 mm／decade and

passing the 95％confidence test)．Nimu and Lhazi stations were established in the late 1970s

and there iS an obvious increasing trend of precipitation since the 1 980s(Table 4)，therefore

the magnitude of trends in Nimu(33．3 mm／decade)and Lhazi(48．6 mm／decade)is greater

when calculating the linear values．Most stations present an obvious linear trend of annual

and seasonal mean precipitation in 1961—2005．the magnitude of trends in fa11 and spring iS

greater than summer and winter．The annua1 and seasona1 mean precipitations have the same

spatial distribution，from the 1ower reach to the upper over the YR basin the magnitude of

precipitation decreases distinctly due to the weakening effect of the monsoon．

3．3 Trends of annual and seasonal potential evapotranspiration

Potential evapotranspiration in summer accounts for 33％ of the total，and spring，fall and


YOU Qinglong et a1．：Climate change over the Y~lung Zangbo River Basin during 1961—2005 415

24

18

l2

6

24

I8

l2

6

700

600

500

400

Figure 3 Regional trends for annual and seasonal precipitation over the YR basin in 1961—2005，illustrations are

the satne asinFigure 2

Table 5 Spatial distribution of seasonal and annual precipitation trends over the YR basin in 1961—2005

(unit：ram／decade，trends in bold reach the 5％ significance leve1)

0 O 0 O ) ) ∞ ∞ 如加鲫 ∞

㈣鲫 ∞ 蜘姗瑚 ∞ ∞

一葛 U)IJ0 gIdI。



winter being 31％，21％ and 15％，respectively(Table 6)．The greatest annual mean potential

evapotranspiration over the YR basin is in the 1980s and the least in 2001—2005．

Table 6 Decadal mean annual potential eVapotranspiration over the YR basin(unit：mm)

The annual and seasonal mean potential evapotranspiration shows a little decreasing trend

in 1961—2005(Figure 4)．The annual mean ootential eval3otransoiration shows significant

200

180

160

140

260

240

220

200

400

360

320

360

330

300

1150

1100

1050

1000

Fal1 Lin~ 2 42 P=O．071 ‘

．- i -I ．． lIlI ‘ _ _ i _

一一 ⋯

■ flil,llldllI lI．1Il IIlhllllllllll翩

200

180

160

140

260

240

220

200

400

360

320

360

330

300

1150

1100

1050

1000

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Year

Figure 4 Regional trends for annual and seasonal potential evapotranspiration over the YR basin in 1961—2005

the curve is polynomial regression，and the other illustrations are the same as in Figure 2

一口罾一I100譬口∞口g od啊一一_II _凸l，_



decreasing trend of一1 1 mm／decade，the decreasing trend in winter(一3．6 mm／decade and

passing the 95％ confidence test)is much greater than spring(一3．0 mm／decade)，fall(一2．4

mm／decade and passing the 90％ confidence test)and summer(一1．6 mm／decade)．Polyno—

mial regression is created by using annual and seasonal mean potential evapotranspiration，

the fitting effect is pretty good(P<0．01)．The variations of potential evapotranspiration is

very obvious：annual and seasonal mean potential evapotranspiration increases during the

1960s一1980s and then decreases，although there is a slight increasing trend in 2001—2005，

the annual mean potential evapotranspiration is less than in other decades(Table 6)．

Most of the stations show statistically decreasing trends in potential evapotranspiration

occurring mainly in spring，and 50％ of the stations have greater magnitudes in winter than

in summer(Table 7)．There is slight increasing trend of potential evapotranspiration at Lhasa

and Nyingchi stations(not passing the confidence test)，the greater magnitudes of trends

in Lhazi and Nimu are due to the latest establishment．Especially in the middle reach of the

YR and Nianchu river basins，the decreasing trend in potential evapotran spiration is signifi—

cant．

Table 7 Spatial distribution of seasonal and annual potential eVapOtranspiratiOn trends over the YR basin in

1961—2005(unit：mmldecade，trends in bold reach the 5％significance leve1．)

4 Discussion and conclusions

Depended on the reliable meteorological data，more studies(Liu and Chen，2000；Li and

Kang，2006；Wlei et a1．，2003)indicated a general warming trend of air temperature over the

Tibetan Plateau fTP)。the temperature was high in the early 1960s and decreased from the

mid一1 960s to the 1 980s，then entered into an unprecedented warin period since the late

l 980s．which was consistent with the Northern Hemisphere．The annual and seasonal mean

temperature over the YR basin is increasing step by step，the drastic warm occurs in winter,

then in fa11，spring and summer,the annual an d seasonal temperature variations are simi lar to

the Tibetan Plateau fNiu et a1．，2005)．

Using data of 36 meteorological stations from 1961 to 2000 in Tibet，Du(2001)indicated

the linear trend of the warming for annual mean temperature iS 0．26℃／decade．which iS ob—

viously higher than in other parts of China f0．40℃／100a) and the whole globe



f0．3—0．6℃／1OOa)．The linear rate of air temperature increase is 0．234℃／decade in Mt．Qo—

molangma region from 1971 to 2004，exceeding that for China(0．226℃／decade)and the

global average(0．148~C／decade)in the same period(Yang et a1．，2006)．The TP averaged

trend of annual surface air temperature is 0．24℃／decade during 1971—2000 by analyzing 77

stations(Wu et a1．，2007)．In the recent three decades(1971-2003)，the all—India mean an—

nual temperature has increased bv 0．22℃／decade while the YR basin is 0．30℃／decade in the

same period(Kothawale and Rupa，2005)．Compared with all—India，Mt．Qomolangma re—

gion，the T China and the whole globe in the same period(Table 8)，the linear trend of an—

nual mean temperature over the YR basin is of great amplitude．especially in the Lhasa river

basin．The YR basin is more sensitive to global warming especially in recent decades．Chen

f口f．f20o31 and Duan et a1．(2006)concluded that the recent climate warming over the TP

primarily results from the increasing anthropogenic greenhouse gases emissions，and im—

pacts of the increased greenhouse gases emissions upon the climate change on the plateau

are probably more seriOHS than the rest of the world．The YR basin is the political，eco—

nomical and cultural center in Tibet．the greater wanning trend may result from the green—

house gases emi ssions．

The precipitation has significant increasing trend in fal1 and spring over the YR basin

since 1 96 1 but slight increasing in summer and winter．The annual and seasonal precipitation

variation is consistent with the TP(Du and Ma．2004)．The linear trend of annual precipita—

tion is 1 9．9 mm／decade in Tibet and 1 1．9 mm／decade over the TP(Du and Ma，2004；Wu f

a1．．2007)．while the value is 24．6 mm／decade over the YR basin in the same period(Table 8)

The amplitude of increasing precipitation over the YR basin is greater than Tibet and the TR

Table 8 Climatic trends in various periods over the YR basin

The annual and seasonal mean potential evapOtranspiratiOn has shown a significant de—

creasing trend since 1 96 1．the decreasing potential evapotranspiration rates are more pro—

nounced in spring and winter as compared with summer and fa11．The annual and seasonal

potential evapotranspiration variation is consistent with previous study on the TP by Chen et

a1．(2006)．Chen et a1．(2006)analyzed the potential evapotranspiration trend for 101 sta—

tions on the TP and its su~ounding areas and showed the average annual potential

evapotranspiration rate decreased by一13．1 mm／decade from 1961 to 2000．which is larger

than the YR basin f一3．5 mm／decade)．The trend of annual mean potential evapotranspiration

is一9．14 mm／decade on the TP from 1971 to 2000 indicated bv Wu f a1．(2007)，while the

value is-29．2 mm／decade over the YR basin fTable 81．It seems that the magnitude of linear

trend of potential evapotranspiration has been larger than the TP since the 1 970s．Sunshine

duration is commonly regarded as the most significant contributor to potential evapotran—

spiration rates over the Yangtze River Basin and China(Gao et a1．，2006；Wang et a1．，2005)，

while sunshine durations is not always the most important controlling factor．Chen et a1．

f20061 concluded that wind speed turned out to be the most importan t meteorological vari—



able affecting changes in potential evapotranspiration rates on the TP,which is in accordance

with Barry(1 992)who argues that wind is probably the most important factor controlling

potential evapotran spiration rates in all high altitude environments．Therefore the decline of

potential evapotranspiration over the YR basin is mainly influenced by change of wind

speed．

From the above analysis an d discussions，some results are as follows：

(1)The annual and four seasonal mean air temperature shows statistically significant in—

creasing trend，the trend of an nual mean temperature is 0．28~C／decade，the tendency is more

significant in winter and fal1．The warming in Lhasa river basin is most significant．

(2)The precipitation is decreasing from the 1960s to the 1980s and increasing since the

1980s．From 1961 to 2005，the annual and four seasonal precipitation is increasing but not

statistically significant．especially in fall and spring．The trend of annual precipitation is 6．75

mm／decade．Increasing precipitation rates are more pronounced in Niyangqu an d Palong

Zangbo river basins，closer to the upper YR，less precipitation increasing rate．

(3)The annual and four seasonal mean potential evapotranspiration has decreased，espe—

cially after the 1 980s．The trend of annual mean potential eVap0transpirati0n is 一1 1

mm／decade，which mostly happens in winter and spring．Th e decreasing trend is most sig—

nificant in the middle YR and Nianchu river basins．

(4)Compared with the Mt．Qomolangma region，the TP,China and global average，the

magnitude of warming trend over the YR basin exceeds those areas in the same period since

the 1970s．And compared with the TP,the magnitudes of precipitation increasing and poten—

tial evapotranspiration decreasing are larger,suggesting that the YR basin is one of the most

sensitive areas to global warming．

Acknowledgements： The authors thank National Climate Center for kindly providing meteorological

data used in this paper and LI Chaoliu for his drawing．W e acknowledge the reviewers for their valuable

suggestions．

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Climate change over the Yarlung Zangbo river basin during 1961–2005

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