Climate change and water resources in the Lower Mekong River Basin: putting adaptation into the...

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Climate change andwater resources in the LowerMekong

River Basin putting adaptation into the context

M Keskinen S Chinvanno M Kummu P Nuorteva A Snidvongs

O Varis and K Vastila

ABSTRACT

M Keskinen (corresponding author)

M Kummu

P Nuorteva

O Varis

K Vastila

Water and Development Research Group

Aalto University

PO Box 15200

00076 AALTO

Finland

Tel +358 50 3824626

Fax +358 9 47023856

E-mail keskinenikifi

S Chinvanno

A Snidvongs

Southeast Asia START Regional Center

Chulalongkorn University

Chulawich 1 Building

Bangkok 10330

Thailand

Adaptation to climate change has become one of the focal points of current development

discussion This article summarises the findings from a multidisciplinary research project looking

at climate change impacts and adaptation in the Mekong River Basin in Southeast Asia

The research highlights the central role that the hydrological cycle has in mediating climate

change impacts on ecosystems and societies The findings indicate that climate change should

not be studied in isolation as there are several other factors that are affecting the hydrological

cycle In the Mekong the most important such factor is the on-going hydropower development

that is likely to induce changes at least as radical as climate change but with shorter timescales

The article concludes that climate change adaptation should broaden its view to consider

environmental changes likely to occur due to different factors at various spatial and temporal

scales It is also important to recognise that climate change adaptation is a dynamic

development-orientated process that should consider also broader socio-political context

To enable this we propose that an area-based adaptation approach should be used more actively

to complement the dominant sector-based approaches

Key words | adaptation policies climate change adaptation livelihoods Mekong Delta Tonle Sap

water resources management

ABBREVIATIONS

3D Three-Dimensional

CC Climate Change

CCCO Cambodian Climate Change Office

DIVA Dynamic and Interactive Vulnerability

Assessment a method for modular

integrated modelling

ECHAM An atmospheric general circulation

model

EEA European Environment Agency

EIA Environmental Impact Assessment

Center of Finland Ltd

IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate

Change

IUCN International Union for Conservation

of Nature

MOIT Ministry of Industry and Trade Vietnam

MONRE Ministry of Natural Resources and

Environment Vietnam

MRC Mekong River Commission

MRCS Mekong River Commission Secretariat

NAPA National Adaptation Program of Action

to Climate Change

POM Princeton Ocean Model

PRECIS Providing REgional Climates for Impacts

Studies a regional climate modelling

system

SEA START RC Southeast Asia START Regional Center

SEI Stockholm Environment Institute

doi 102166wcc2010009

103 Q IWA Publishing 2010 Journal of Water and Climate Change | 012 | 2010

SIWRP Sub-Institute of Water Resources

Planning Vietnam

SRES A2 One of the four IPCC emission scenarios

START Global Change SysTem for Analysis

Research and Training network

TKK Helsinki University of Technology

UN United Nations

UNDP United Nations Development

Programme

UNEP United Nations Environment

Programme

VIC Variable Infiltration Capacity model

VNMC Vietnam National Mekong Committee

WUP-FIN Lower Mekong Modelling Project

WWF World Wide Fund for Nature

INTRODUCTION

Climate change adaptation and water

Current estimates indicate that major environmental

changes are likely to occur due to climate change in

practically every part of the world with majority of these

changes being felt through modification of the hydrological

cycle as for example floods droughts and storms (UNDP

2006 Falkenmark 2007 IPCC 2007a Leary et al 2008a

Ludwig amp Moench 2009 Michel amp Pandya 2009) The most

recent World Water Development Report notes that

ldquoclimate change can directly affect the hydrologic cycle

and through it the quantity and quality of water resourcesrdquo

concluding that climate change is going to have a direct

impact on water availability for flora and fauna as well as

for diverse human uses (World Water Assessment

Programme 2009 68)

While the magnitude of the estimated climate change

impacts depends on the scenarios used increases in global

temperature are in any case expected to continue for

decades even if greenhouse gas emissions were stabilised

today (EEA 2007 IPCC 2007b) Actions have to be taken to

respond to these impacts and the discussion about climate

change has therefore shifted from mitigation towards

adaptation to climate change The increasing emphasis on

adaptation is also apparent in recent climate change-related

publications and events most importantly in the assessment

reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

(IPCC 2007a) as well as in the 15th Conference of the Parties

of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate

Change held in December 2009 in Copenhagen

The impacts of climate change are estimated to be

particularly severe in many developing countries including

the coastal zones and the areas prone to flooding and

drought (UNDP 2006 IPCC 2007a Michel amp Pandya 2009

World Water Assessment Programme 2009) The climate

change impacts in these areas are likely to bring new

challenges as well as to magnify already existing ones

impacting both the livelihoods and food security Yet the

implications of changing climate are not distributed equally

and some groups are likely to losemdashand some groups gainmdash

more than others Given the multiple linkages that climate

change has with development climate change adaptation

has thus become one of the focal points of current

development discussion as well (Le Blanc 2009)

This is also the situation in the Mekong River Basin in

Southeast Asia where the issue of climate change has

entered both the national and regional discussion There are

naturally good reasons for this as climate change is

estimated to have a significant impact on the regionrsquos

water resources and consequently on the livelihoods of

millions of people (Chinvanno et al 2008 Eastham et al

2008 Resurreccion et al 2008 TKK amp SEA START RC

2009) Climate change and responses to it are addressed in

different arenas and the resources available for adaptation

are increasing rapidly At the same time however there is a

danger that the current lsquoclimate change hypersquo neglects the

broader context in which the adaptation takes place

leading to overlaps as well as to actions that are not really

improving the overall capacity to respond to the multiple

environmental changes the region is facing The actions

responding to climate change impacts may also lead to

growing social injustices putting different social groups in

an increasingly unequal position (Lebel 2007 Resurreccion

et al 2008)

This article presents the key findings from an 11-month

multidisciplinary research project lsquoWater and Climate

Change in the Lower Mekong Basin Diagnosis amp rec-

ommendations for adaptationrsquo (TKK amp SEA START RC

2009) The research was carried out by the Helsinki

University of Technology (now part of Aalto University)

104 M Keskinen et al | Climate change and water resources in the Lower Mekong River Basin Journal of Water and Climate Change | 012 | 2010

Finland and Southeast Asia START Regional Center at the

Chulalongkorn University Thailand in cooperation with

several partners Due to its short duration the project was

not able to cover the entire Mekong River Basin or all the

linkages between climate and water Instead the project

focused on the hydrological impacts of climate change as

well as related adaptation strategies in the Tonle Sap Lake

area of Cambodia and the Mekong Delta of Vietnam using

results from just one climate model The project can thus be

seen as a kind of scoping study providing some indicative

results about climate change adaptation in the two areas

helping thereby to recognise the possibilities for future

research and action The research aims to provide an

overview of estimated climate change impacts in these areas

together with the broader context within which the impacts

are taking place As the more detailed descriptions of the

research methodology and findings are presented elsewhere

(TKK amp SEA START RC 2008 2009Nuorteva 2009 Vastila

2009 Nuorteva et al 2010 Vastila et al 2010) this article

focuses on more general findings as well as on their

implications to the general discussion about climate change

adaptation

The Mekong River Basin

The Mekong River in Southeast Asia is among the greatest

rivers of the world both its estimated length (4909km)

and its mean annual volume (475km3) make it the worldrsquos

tenth largest (MRC 2005 Shaochuang et al 2007) The

Mekong is also among the worldrsquos most pristine large

rivers supporting an exceptionally diverse and productive

freshwater ecosystem that provides livelihood and food for

millions of people Most important water-related resources

in the basin are rice and fish as well as other aquatic

animals and plants (MRC 2003a)

Six riparian countries share the Mekong River Basin

Cambodia China Laos BurmaMyanmar Thailand and

Vietnam The Mekong River and its tributaries have

different environmental economic social and cultural

roles in the six countries For the primarily rural economies

of Cambodia Laos and the Mekong Delta of Vietnam the

river is the lifeline of the local people as it supports

directly the livelihoods of millions of fishers and farmers

The river and its floodplains are particularly important for

the Lower Mekong floodplains downstream from the

Cambodian provincial town of Kratie in this area the

annual rhythm of the river is most visible as the flood waters

extend the river to vast floodplains supporting highly

productive fisheries and rice cultivation

The Mekong River Basin is expected to see an

increasing number of water infrastructure developments

within the coming decades particularly in form of large-

scale hydropower dams in upper parts of the basin (IUCN

et al 2007 King et al 2007 MRC 2008a Middleton et al

2009 Molle et al 2009) The current impact assessments

indicate that these planned hydropower dams are likely to

cause significant impacts in the Lower Mekong floodplains

and in the Tonle Sap system in particular affecting both water

quantity and quality and consequently the aquatic pro-

ductivity of the river-floodplain system (MRCSWUP-FIN

2007 Dugan 2008 Keskinen 2008a Kummu amp Sarkkula

2008 Molle et al 2009) In addition to hydropower dams

the basin is seeing rapid changes in land use as well as

intensifying plans for irrigation flood control structures and

other infrastructure such as roads These diverse changes

and plans have drawn considerable attention as it is feared

they will undermine the livelihoods of millions of people by

impacting negatively the availability of water-dependent

resources most importantly fish (see eg IUCN et al 2007

MRCSWUP-FIN 2007 Keskinen 2008a Rowcroft 2008

Molle et al 2009 Sarkkula et al 2009)

This article focuses on two very special areas in the

Lower Mekong Basin the Tonle Sap Lake of Cambodia and

the Mekong Delta of Vietnam (Figure 1) Both areas are

unusual in terms of hydrology the Tonle Sap has its

extraordinary flood pulse system and the Delta possesses

the diverse characteristics of deltas including floods saline

water intrusion and strong tides In both areas people have

developed methods for adapting and making use of the

exceptional hydrological regime While in the Tonle Sap

the people are still adapted to the natural water regime

(Keskinen 2006 MRCSWUP-FIN 2007) in the Delta the

decades-long adaptation has actually meant ambitious

engineering projects that have resulted in a move from

adaptation to the control of deltarsquos water regime (Biggs

2003 Miller 2003 Kakonen 2008)

The Tonle Sap Lake is known for its flood pulse system

with a remarkable but nevertheless rather regular seasonal


variation in the lakersquos water volume and level The flood

pulse is closely connected to the Mekong River during the

rainy season part of the Mekongrsquos floodwaters flow to the

lake and the lakersquos surface area quadruples and the water

level increases from mere 1m up to 10m (MRCSWUP-FIN

2007) An exceptional and highly productive floodplain

ecosystem has been formed and the Tonle Sap is believed to

be among the worldrsquos most productive freshwater ecosys-

tems The Tonle Sap is also exceptional for a lake of its size

as the impacts of climate changemdashor any other environ-

mental changesmdashare felt as a combination of changes in its

own basin and that of the Mekong River The actual lsquoimpact

basinrsquo of the Tonle Sap Lake is thus not merely the lake

basin (86000 km2) but the entire Mekong River Basin

upstream from the Tonle Sap (680000 km2) This naturally

makes the assessment of potential impacts on the area a

particular challenge

The people living in and around the Tonle Sap Lake

are well adapted to the remarkable variation of the lakersquos

water level living in floating and stilt houses and making

use of the resources the flood pulse supports (Poole 2005

Keskinen 2006) Overall the Tonle Sap Lake and the

surrounding floodplains form a source of livelihoods and

food for well over million people living in and around the

lake The significance of the Tonle Sap extends however

much further it is estimated that up to half of Cambodiarsquos

population benefits directly or indirectly from the lakersquos

resources and the Tonle Saprsquos high fish production also

Ca Mau

Kratie

Prek Kdam

Can Tho

Chau Doc

SiemReap

PHNOM PENH

Stung Treng

Sihanoukville

Ho Chi Minh City

VIETNAM

106deg00E104deg00E102deg00E

14deg00N

12deg00N

10deg00N

100km

Permament water

Floodplain

Countries

Tonle S

ap

River

Mekong

Stung S

en

Bassac

South China Sea

Gulf of Thailand

CAMBODIA

Figure 1 | The map of the Lower Mekong floodplains including the Tonle Sap Lake and its floodplains as well as the Mekong Delta of Vietnam


bring benefits to other Mekong countries (Bonheur 2001

Bonheur amp Lane 2002 MRCSWUP-FIN 2007)

The Vietnamese side of the Mekong Delta1 covers an

area of around 39200 km2 with total population of over 16

million (SIWRP amp VNMC 2003 MRCSWUP-FIN 2006)

The delta is thus much more intensely populated than the

Tonle Sap area with average population density over

400personskm2 compared to approximately 80persons

km2 in the Tonle Sap (Keskinen 2008b) The delta is a low-

level plain not more than three meters above sea level at any

point and the life in the delta is greatly affected by the

floods tides saline water intrusion from the sea and

alluvium-rich floods of the Mekong The delta is criss-

crossed by a maze of canals and rivers that enable deltarsquos

remarkable agricultural production and also serve as

important means of transportation The vast rice fields

together with other agricultural as well as aquacultural

products make up the core of the regionrsquos economy Rice

cultivation is of major importance to Vietnam and as up to

half of the national production and 70 of the exported

rice comes from the Mekong Delta the area is often

described as the rice basket of entire Vietnam (Miller 2003

MRCSWUP-FIN 2006 Kakonen 2008)

METHODS

Assessing the impacts and adaptation capacity

The research presented in this article builds on a multi-

disciplinary approach that makes use of various approaches

and methods (Figure 2) Two interlinked modelling exer-

cises formed the core of the research one exercise focused

on modelling and downscaling of selected climate change

scenarios for the Mekong Region and the other on

modelling the impacts of these changes with the help of

hydrological and hydrodynamic models The objective of

the modelling exercises was to estimate how climate change

alters the flood pulse ( Junk et al 1989) characteristics in

the Lower Mekong floodplains in the first half of the

21st Century with a focus on the Tonle Sap Lake area and

the Mekong Delta of Vietnam The modelling approach is

briefly explained next while a more thorough description

is provided by Vastila (2009) and Vastila et al (2010)

The models run for two periods the baseline (years vary

depending on data availability) and the future (2010ndash2049)

The output from one model was converted into the input for

another model with the so-called delta change method

where the changes between the simulated baseline and the

Adaptation policiesCoo

rdin

atio

n m

anag

emen

t and

mee

tings

Diagnosis

Scenarios

Basin wideclimate change

Basin wideplanning

A

B

CD

AIIAI

DeltaLivelihoodsanalysis

Tonle sapBI BII

BIII

Nature NaturePeople

Figure 2 | The main components of the lsquoWater amp climate change in the Lower Mekong Basinrsquo project (TKK amp SEA START RC 2008)

1 The definition of the entire Mekong Delta varies with estimates of its total area ranging

from 49000km2 (SIWRP amp VNMC 2003) up to 65000km2 (MRC 2003b) Commonly

however the delta is defined to consist of the area downstream from Cambodian capital

of Phnom Penh and the delta can thus be divided into two parts Cambodian and

Vietnamese In this article we usemdashsimilarly to many other publicationsmdashthe general

term lsquoMekong Deltarsquo also to refer just to the Vietnamese part of the delta


simulated future were imposed on the observed input time

series The climatic changes were simulated by dynamically

downscaling data from the ECHAM4 atmosphericndashocean

general circulation model runs (Roeckner et al 1996) with

the PRECIS regional climate model (Jones et al 2004)

under the SRES A2 emissions scenario (Nakicenovic amp

Swart 2000) The PRECIS output included rainfall tem-

perature wind speed and wind direction

The downscaled temperature and precipitation data

were used as an input to a hydrological model (Variable

Infiltration Capacity model VIC) The VIC model covered

the Upper Mekong Basin and produced the discharge of the

Mekong (at Kratie location shown in Figure 1) as an

output The downscaled wind speed and wind direction

data were used as an input to an ocean circulation model

(Princeton Ocean Model POM) which simulated the local

sea level fluctuations at the mouth of the Mekong Delta

The future sea level time series were produced by combining

the POM results with the estimated global sea level rise

obtained with the so-called DIVA tool (Hinkel 2005)

A three-dimensional hydrodynamic model was chosen

for flood pulse simulation as it is more suitable for

simulating complex floodplain flows than simpler one-

dimensional models The EIA 3D hydrodynamic model

(Koponen et al 2005 Kummu et al 2006 MRCSWUP-FIN

2008) was run for three types of hydrological years the

decadersquos wettest driest and average hydrological years in

the baseline decade (1995ndash2004) and in the 2010sndash2040s

Hydrological year was defined based on the flood timing

starting on May 1st and ending on April 30th The

baseline was compared with the following three scenarios

1) climate-change induced alterations in basin hydrology

upstream of Kratie (river flow obtained from the VIC

model) 2) sea level rise (obtained from the POM and DIVA

models) and 3) their cumulative impacts Three scenarios

simulated for three types of hydrological years produced

altogether nine scenario cases Simulated flood pulse

characteristics such as average and maximum water levels

and the duration and timing of the flooding were compared

between the baseline and the scenario cases (TKK amp SEA

START RC 2009 Vastila et al 2010)

The modelling exercises were complemented with

analyses of national adaptation policies in Cambodia and

Vietnam a review of regional adaptation initiatives as well as

a study on livelihood resilience and local adaptation

strategies in the Tonle Sap area In addition a one-day

stakeholder consultation workshop was carried out in

the Mekong Delta discussing the estimated climate

change impacts and possibilities for adaptation in the area

While the study on national and regional adaptation plans

was based on review of existing literature (TKK amp SEA

START RC 2008 2009) the livelihood analysis built on key

informant interviews in six study villages around the Tonle

Sap Lake To understand the differences in different parts of

the floodplain the study villages were selected so that they

formed two transectsmdashor crosscutsmdashacross the floodplain

with three villages in both transects one close to the lake

another one in the middle of the floodplains and the third

one in the upper parts of the floodplain close to the National

Roads surrounding the lake (Nuorteva et al 2010)

The livelihood analysis looked at climate change

adaptation through the concepts of vulnerability and

resilience (Holling 1973 Adger 2000 Cutter et al 2008

World Resources Institute 2008) As noted by Cutter et al

(2008) vulnerability is a function of the exposure and

sensitivity of system while resilience refers then to the

ability of a social system to respond to and recover from

disasters Resilience therefore looks at the ability of social-

ecological systems to cope with changing situations and

climate change adaptation was thus considered as one

change factor among many rather than as a completely new

paradigm At the end of the research the findings from all

research componentsmdashmodelling review of adaptation

policies livelihood analysismdashwere put together and overall

recommendations synthesising these findings formulated

(TKK amp SEA START RC 2009) This article presents a

summary on these key conclusions

RESULTS

Climate change impacts and adaptation in the Mekong

Climate change scenarios warmer and wetter

The results from the climate modelling used in this research

indicate that the Mekong Region will become slightly

warmer but the duration of warm periods will be greater

and cover a much wider area The greatest changes were


simulated for the northern areas of the Mekong River Basin

The annual rainfall in the basin was projected to grow on

average by some 4 during the study period These

estimated changes will however be spread unevenly

with rainfall estimated to increase in the upper parts of

the basin but to decrease in the Lower Mekong floodplains

The overall increasing trend results from increasing rainfall

intensity as the length of the rainy season is estimated to be

more or less the same as at present (TKK amp SEA START RC

2009 Vastila et al 2010)

In addition to the impacts of the changes in temperature

and rainfall the sea level rise is estimated to have a

significant impact particularly in the Mekong Delta affect-

ing both the flooding and the saline water intrusion While

the sea level rise has clearly the most significant impacts

for the hydrological changes in the delta their impact is

negligible in the Tonle Sap where the impacts of the

changed basin hydrology (ie the changes occurring within

the entire Mekong River Basin) due to changing climate

dominate The change in sea level is very consistent

throughout the study period increasing in magnitude

decade by decade whereas the impacts of changed basin

hydrology are more varied in both magnitude and direction

of change (TKK amp SEA START RC 2009)

Hydrological and hydrodynamic changes

more intensive flooding

A majority of the nine scenario cases used for assessing the

climate change impacts to Mekongrsquos flow produced similar

clear changes in flooding patterns In the first half of the

21st century the flood pulse in the Tonle Sap and

Cambodian floodplains as well as in the Mekong Delta is

likely to be greater than in the baseline decade Annual

average water level was projected to rise in every scenario

case both in the Tonle Sap area and the Mekong Delta

The projected rise was up to 20 cm increasing also the

annual cumulative flooded area Flood duration increased

in all the scenario cases by 0ndash9 ie between 1 and 23 days

It is also notable that the models indicated increase in the

average dry-season water level of the Tonle Sap (Vastila

2009 Vastila et al 2010) However as the EIA 3D model

was not able to simulate the dry-season water level very

reliably this result should be regarded as indicative only

All the simulated flood pulse characteristics indicate

that the average and driest hydrological years are likely to

be wetter in the future The wettest hydrological years also

show increases in the average and dry-season flood pulse

characteristics but undergo decreases in terms of high

water characteristics For instance the average high water

level increases by 1ndash25 cm in the average and driest years

whereas it decreases by up to 27 cm in the wettest years in

comparison to the baseline (Vastila et al 2010) Overall in

both the Tonle Sap and the Mekong Delta the estimated

climate change impacts are being felt through regional

(ie basin-wide) as well as local changes

National adaptation plans amp policies focus on sectoral

approaches

Adaptation to climate change can be done through a range

of measures including technological (eg protective infra-

structure and early warning systems) behavioural (eg

changes in consumption or food choices) managerial

(eg changes in agricultural practices) as well as policies

(eg new regulations for planning) (IPCC 2007a Francisco

2008) This research focused on adaptation policies that can

be seen to provide the overall framework for the different

adaptation measures

In both Cambodia and Vietnam climate change adap-

tation policies and plans are coordinated by the respective

environmental ministries In Cambodia the Cambodian

Climate Change Office (CCCO) under the Ministry of

Environment is responsible for climate change adaptation

The main programme guiding adaptation is the National

Adaptation Program of Action to Climate Change (NAPA)

that provides a framework for coordination and implemen-

tation of adaptation initiatives (Ministry of Environment

2006) The NAPA takes a primarily sectoral approach for

adaptation and recognises four priority sectors for climate

change adaptation in Cambodia agriculture forestry

human health and coastal zone In addition water

resources sector is included as a fifth crosscutting priority

sector due to its close linkages with the other priority

sectors and its importance for Cambodiarsquos overall devel-

opment It is notable that the NAPA puts little emphasis

on fisheries despite their remarkable social and economic

importance and clear vulnerability to environmental and


climatic changes (Resurreccion et al 2008 TKK amp SEA

START RC 2009)

Vietnam is considered as one of the worldrsquos most

vulnerable countries to climate change impacts because of

its heavy and variable rainfall long low lying coastline and

exposure to typhoons and storms (MONRE et al 2008)

Policies to assess and to respond to climate change impacts

are therefore high in the governmentrsquos agenda The

adaptation actions are guided by the National Target

Program to Respond to Climate Change that was approved

in December 2008 and places the Ministry of Natural

Resources and Environment as the lead agency for

its implementation The programme aims to enhance

Vietnamrsquos capacity to respond to climate change and its

objective is to ldquoassess climate change impacts on sectors

and regions in specific periods and to develop feasible

action plans to effectively respond to climate change in the

short-term and long-termrdquo (The Socialist Republic of

Vietnam 2008 2) The assessment of climate change

impacts and the identification of adaptation measures are

in the National Target Program organised mainly on a

sectoral basis emphasising the role of different ministries

in these actions

In addition to national plans there exist regional

initiatives related to climate change adaptation (see eg

MRC 2008b TKK amp SEA START RC 2008 SEI 2009 WWF

2009) For instance the Mekong River Commission initiated

in 2008 its own climate change and adaptation initiative for

the Lower Mekong Basin highlighting that the climate

change is fundamentally a basin-wide issue The initiative

aims to improve the capacity of the riparian governments

to manage and adapt to climate change by developing

scientific data and analytical tools for the projection of

future climate impacts and by identifying adaptation

strategies to these impacts (MRC 2008b)

Livelihoods and local adaptation strategies increasing

vulnerability

The findings from the field research looking at livelihood

resilience and adaptation capacity in the Tonle Sap area

indicate that people are generally well adapted to remark-

able seasonal variation in the lakersquos waters However their

adaptation capacity towards unusual environmental

changes such as extraordinary high floods and sudden

storms both expected to intensify due to climate change is

limited The reasons for the low adaptation capacity and

resulting high vulnerability seem to be related to the rather

homogenous livelihood structures weak opportunities to

diversify the livelihood sources institutional and govern-

ance challenges as well as decreasing availability of natural

resources The vulnerabilities were relatively similar in all

study villages including both the floating villages in the lake

and the agricultural villages further up in the floodplains

(Nuorteva 2009 Nuorteva et al 2010) The research findings

also point out that the adaptation capacity of the poorest

groups is particularly low as their already low living

standards and limited asset-base intensifies their vulner-

ability to challenges and changes This seems to be the case

also in other countries in the region including Vietnam

(Chaudhry amp Ruysschaert 2007 Resurreccion et al 2008)

The findings from the field research indicate that among

the most efficient strategies for adapting to the impacts of

environmental changes is to increase the general standards

of living and the prerequisites to maintain a productive

livelihood base Equally important is to support local

capacities and institutions to cope with both sudden shocks

as well as with more long-term stresses and changes In

addition both the Tonle Sap field studies and the

stakeholder consultation in the Mekong Delta indicate

that the efforts to enhance local adaptation capacity should

build on existing livelihoods as well as lessons learnt from

the exceptional events of the past The informants in the

Tonle Sap and the delta had several ideas about the sort of

activities through which they could improve their future

livelihoods and thus to enhance their resilience and

adaptive capacity Supporting and nurturing these ideas

can thus be seen as one of the keys for enhancing the overall

adaptation capacity as well (Nuorteva et al 2010)

DISCUSSION

Changes and their timescales

Due to the multitude of spatial and temporal scales included

in the assessment of climate change impacts it is obvious

that such impacts should be looked at together with other


environmental changes In the Mekong the development of

large-scale hydropower dams represents undoubtedly the

most important change factor to be considered together

with climate change indicating a need to assess the possible

impacts of these two drivers simultaneously While such

assessment has not yet been done comprehensively Table 1

shows some preliminary estimates by presenting a simpli-

fied summary of the expected impacts of these two changes

to selected hydrological indicators in the Tonle Sap

As can be seen from the table the hydrological impacts

of climate change and hydropower development are

estimated to be largely opposite to each other An exception

to the opposing effects of changing climate and hydropower

development is the dry season water level that is estimated

to increase due to both hydropower development and

climate change Given the radical negative consequences

that this is expected to have for the floodplain ecosystems of

the Lower Mekong Basin (Kummu amp Sarkkula 2008) this

combined impact of increased dry season water level poses

a serious concern for the Lower Mekong floodplains and

would therefore require a more detailed study

The impacts of climate change and hydropower devel-

opment are also likely to occur at noticeably different

timescales and they cannot therefore be considered

simply to counter-balance each other The most remarkable

changes in climate-related variables such as precipitation

and sea level rise are estimated to occur over the time span

of several decades On the other hand the changes caused

by large-scale hydropower development in terms of increas-

ing reservoir capacities and their consequent impacts are

going to be felt with much shorter timescale possibly

already over next 5ndash20 years

The differences in the timescales of climate change and

hydropower development are illustrated in an simplified

form in Figure 3 which shows the slowly increasing trends

in climatic variables over the coming decades and

compares these to the swiftly intensifying changes projected

for the storage capacity of planned hydropower reservoirs

already within next decade or so While the figure does not

show directly the timescale of the actual impacts of climate

change and hydropower development many of their

impacts are closely related to the variables presented in

the figure and they can therefore be expected to have similar

timescales As Figure 3 illustrates only the timescales within

which the variables are expected to start to change most of

the impacts caused by such changes will in the long run be

simultaneousmdashassuming that the planned hydropower dams

will still be in operation in the latter half of the century Yet

it is important to consider also the so-called intermediate

period ie the period within which the impacts of hydro-

power development are already felt but the most severe

climate change impacts are not yet

Table 1 | A summary showing simplified estimated impacts of hydropower development and climate change on selected hydrological indicators in the Tonle Sap area Impact

timescale refers to the time horizon within which the impacts are expected to start to occurp

Hydrological variable Impact development Impact climate Certainty of climate impact

Average water level (FebndashJul) Very likely increases

Average water level (AugndashJan) Likely increases

Annual cumulative flooded area Very likely increases

Maximum water level Likely increases

Maximum flooded area Likely increases

Flood start date ˆ Very likely occurs earlier

Flood peak date ndash ˆ Occurs possibly later in averageyears and earlier in driest years

Flood end date ˆ Likely occurs later

Flood duration Likely increases

IMPACT TIMESCALE Shortndashmedium(5ndash30 years)

Mediumndashlong(20ndash100 years)

pData on hydropower development is summarised from the modelling results of WUP-FIN Project (MRCSWUP-FIN 2007 Kummu amp Sarkkula 2008) while data on climate change is based on

the research presented in this article providing an average of all simulated climate scenarios (TKK amp SEA START RC 2009 Vastila 2009 Vastila et al 2010)


CONCLUSIONS

Climate change adaptation in the broader context

of environmental and social change

This article has presented our understanding of the possible

implications of climate change in the Lower Mekong Basin

concluding that remarkable impacts to the areasrsquo water

resources and consequently to ecosystems and livelihoods

are expected particularly in the longer term Due to the

trans-boundary nature of the Mekong River such impacts

are to be felt through changes at multiple geographical

scales making their assessment particularly challenging

At the same time several other factors are likely to induce

changes in the area often with much shorter timescales

There is thus a need for integrated assessment of

different changes impacting water resources and environ-

ment instead of separate assessments focusing merely on

climate change or for that matter on hydropower develop-

ment irrigation land use changes and so forth To fully

understand the combined impacts of these varied changes a

cumulative impact assessment should be carried out and the

impacts of the different changes considered at multiple

spatial scales (Kummu 2008) Due to the exceptionally long

timescale of climate change impacts it is also crucially

important to consider thoroughly the temporal scales of

different impacts

The adaptive capacity is not however based on under-

standing of environmental changes alone but also very

much on people and related institutions and policies

Consequently in addition to the environmental changes

other changesmdashsocial economic political legal and insti-

tutionalmdashhave a remarkable effect on the ways the societies

are able to cope with and respond to changes (Leary et al

2008b) Climate change adaptation should thus be seen as

an integral part of broader development policy and not

merely as an environmental issuemdashas seems still often to be

the case in the Mekong countries

Adaptation to climate change has different facets

including reducing exposure and minimising sensitivity of

the vulnerable groups as well as increasing their capacity to

cope with future risks Reducing exposure is usually seen to

require profound understanding of climate change impacts

and a certain level of certainty about the future risks as the

measures to reduce exposure relate in most cases to costly

investments such as infrastructure Enhancing the coping

capacity on the other hand is commonly building on softer

approaches such as strengthening the resilience of house-

holds and communities to future risk as well as supporting

sustainable and equal practices in the use of natural resources

Consequently the most feasible ways to build adaptive

capacity at the local level are essentially the same as those

needed for example in livelihood diversification and more

generally in poverty reduction and sustainable development

(see also Banhuri 2009 Le Blanc 2009) Enhancing climate

45

Expected CC-related changes

next 20ndash100 years30

15

Pre

cipi

tatio

n ch

ange

(

)

0

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Projections for the future

300

200

100

Sea

leve

l cha

nge

(mm

)

0

Res

ervo

ir st

orag

e (k

m3 )

90

60

30

0

Expected dam-related changes

next 5ndash15 years


next 20ndash100 years

Figure 3 | Diagrams showing the future projections for two climate-related variables

precipitation and sea level change (upper two diagrams) compared to the

change in planned reservoir storage in the Mekong Basin Data for climate

change (CC) modified from IPCC (2007b) and for hydropower from King et al

(2007) and MRC (2008a)


change adaptation should therefore build on these initiatives

and support them to respond also to the emerging impacts

from climate change Our findings indicate that in many

cases the most straightforward way to increase the adaptive

capacity is to support local livelihoods and enhance the

living conditions of local people and the poorest in

particular Such a finding is supported by other studies

such as Resurreccion et al (2008) and Le Blanc (2009)

In addition there is plenty to learn from the past

experiences of adaptation leading to the recognition of

successfulmdashand failedmdashadaptation mechanisms and of exist-

ing knowledge gaps Climate change adaptation planning

may thus be viewed as a risk communication process that

feeds information to the stakeholders and policymakers to

help them to revise and articulate their adaptation strategies

Consequently climate change forms a kind of stress test for

development initiatives providing initiative to examine their

relevance and applicability under future conditions

Finally it is important to note that socio-political

contexts evolve continuously and often very rapidly par-

ticularly when compared to the long-term view required in

climate change adaptation Accordingly we feel that generic

simple solutions cannot really be established for climate

change adaptation as a solution that may seem feasible in

todayrsquos circumstances may be out-of-date in tomorrowrsquos

setting Similarly situations differ and a sound solution in

one contextmay actually turn out to be a failure in another as

changing climate produces varying impacts at different

locations and the adaptive capacity makes each area vulner-

able to climate change in its own way Understanding these

two fundamental preconditions is particularly crucial inmost

developing countriesmdashsuch as Cambodia and Vietnammdashwith

their dynamic political and social settings Indeed one needs

only to look back some 30 yearsmdasha relatively short period in

climate change impact studiesmdashto understand how funda-

mentally different both Cambodia and Vietnam were in

terms of their economic institutional and political systems

Area-based approach for climate change adaptation

The national adaptation policies including those in Cam-

bodia and Vietnam build largely on sectoral approaches

with different ministries and organisations considering

climate change predominantly from their specific view

points (see also Michel amp Pandya 2009) While usually

providing a natural starting point for adaptation actions

we suggest that such a sectoral view alone is inadequate to

address the diverse needs related to adaptation This is the

case particularly in terms of strengthening the household

resilience as well as understanding the different spatial and

institutional scales involved (see also Acosta-Michlik et al

2008 Cutter et al 2008 Resurreccion et al 2008)

The social-ecological system in any particular area has

its own characteristics consisting of various sectors that

cannot be really separated from each other Understanding

these specific characteristics is a prerequisite for the

adaptation strategy of any community (Cutter et al 2008)

Throughout their history people have responded to

changes first and foremost in the spatial context of their

social and environmental conditions However as the

different sectors are threatened differently by climate risks

they are responding differently to the climate change

impacts These responses are also likely to affect the risk

conditions and choices of adaptation measures of other

sectors creating unexpected and unintended impacts

To reduce the overlaps and the possibilities for unin-

tended impacts between the sectors we see that an area-

basedmdashin other words context-basedmdashapproach for climate

change adaptation forms one very plausible way to

complement the sectoral approaches In the area-based

approach the assessment of future climate risks and related

adaptation policies is based on a holistic area-specific

framework that considers first the specific context of each

area and the diverse views of its stakeholders and only then

the potential sectoral and cross-sectoral responses (see also

Cutter et al 2008 SEA START RC ampWWF 2008) Although

this approach is by no means entirely new and is in some

ways already included in many adaptation strategies we

suggest that the adaptation strategies still maintain too

strong emphasis on sectoral approaches without proper

consideration of the broader contexts where the adaptation

is taking place

With such an area-based approach the national adap-

tation policies would provide a general framework for

adaptation while the actual adaptation activities are planned

at the level seen most appropriate for each situation We

foresee that in most cases this would be the local level with

the local context forming a starting point to both sectoral and


cross-sectoral actionsWhile such an approachwill naturally

have to build on existing governance structures and their

limitations we still believe that it would encourage the

different sectors to work better together and bring

the context-specific challenges and opportunities more into

the discussion In this way the adaptation planning also

addresses better the possible trade-offs between the sectors

To conclude our findings indicate that climate change

forms an important crosscutter and a risk multiplier for

water and natural resources use in the Mekong Region

At the same time it is obvious that climate change must be

viewed in the broader context within which a variety of

changes are taking place at different temporal and spatial

scales This is important for four main reasons Firstly the

amount of resources being put into climate change

adaptation is likely to increase astronomically in the near

future (see eg Banuri 2009 Copenhagen Accord 2009) The

adaptation activities thus have a potential to enhance

significantly our understanding of the linkages between

nature and society as well as our capacity to respond to

various environmental challenges Secondly climate

change itself is expected to have remarkablemdashlargely

negativemdashimpacts for ecosystems and society and it will

therefore impact directly the development of the region

Thirdly the timescale within which the most severe

impacts of climate change are to be felt is exceptionally

long and the temporal dimensions of different changes

require therefore particular attention including the over-

laps and gaps between their estimated impacts Finally

current activities on climate change adaptation tend to

apply a rather narrow approach often focusing only on

climate change per se To ensure that the increasing

resources for adaptation are really used to respond to the

different environmental changes the adaptation efforts

should have the right kind of focus and scope from the

very beginning For this to happen we see that the

understanding of the broader environmental and socio-

political context is the most critical factor

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

The research presented in this article formed a part of the

research project ldquoWater and Climate Change in the Lower

Mekong Basinrdquo The project was funded by the Ministry

for Foreign Affairs of Finland with additional funding from

the Maa-ja vesitekniikan tuki ry and Academy of Finland

project 111672 Thank you for the two anonymous

reviewers for comments that considerably improved the

text In addition thank you very much to our colleagues

and project counterparts in Cambodia Vietnam and

elsewhere for your cooperation and support Special

thanks to Dr Tin Ponlok Sour Sethy Dr Babette

Resurreccion Dr Juha Sarkkula Jorma Koponen and

Professor Pertti Vakkilainen

REFERENCES

Acosta-Michlik L Kelkar U amp Sharma U 2008 A critical

overview local evidence on vulnerabilities and adaptations

to global environmental change in developing countries

Glob Environ Change 18 (4) 539ndash542

Adger W N 2000 Social and ecological resilience are they

related Prog Hum Geogr 24 (3) 347ndash364

Banuri T 2009 Climate change and sustainable development

editorial Nat Resour Forum 33 (4) 257ndash258

Biggs D 2003 Problematic progress reading environmental and

social change in the Mekong Delta J Southeast Asian Stud

34 (1) 77ndash96

Bonheur N 2001 Tonle Sap Ecosystem and Value Technical

Coordination Unit for Tonle Sap Ministry of Environment

Phnom Penh Cambodia

Bonheur N amp Lane B D 2002 Natural resources management for

human security in Cambodiarsquos Tonle Sap Biosphere Reserve

Environ Sci Policy 5 33ndash41

Chaudhry P amp Ruysschaert G 2007 Climate Change and Human

Development in Viet Nam Occasional Paper Human

Development Report 20072008 Human Development Report

Office UNDP

Chinvanno S Souvannalath S Lersupavithnapa B Kerdsuk V

amp Thuan N 2008 Strategies for managing climate risks in the

Lower Mekong River Basin a place-based approach In

Climate Change and Adaptation (ed N Leary J Adejuwon

V Barros I Burton J Kulkarni amp R Lasco) pp 333ndash350

Earthscan London UK

Copenhagen Accord 2009 Decision Advance unedited version UN

Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen COP 15CMP 5

Available online at httpunfcccint2860php

Cutter S L Barnes L Berry M Burton C Evans E Tate E amp

Webb J 2008 A place-based model for understanding

community resilience to natural disasters Glob Environ

Change 18 (4) 598ndash606

Dugan P 2008 Mainstream dams as barriers to fish migration

international learning and implications for the Mekong Catch

Culture 14 (3) 9ndash15


Eastham J Mpelasoka F Mainuddin M Ticehurst C Dyce P

Hodgson G Ali R amp Kirby M 2008 Mekong River Basin

Water Resources Assessment Impacts of Climate Change

CSIRO Water for a Healthy Country National Research

Flagship report

EEA 2007 Climate Change and Water Adaptation Issues European

Environment Agency (EEA) Copenhagen Denmark

Falkenmark M 2007 Global Warming Water the Main Mediator

Stockholm Water FrontmdashA Forum for Global Water Issues

Stockholm International Water Institute (SIWI) Stockholm

Francisco H A 2008 Adaptation to climate changemdashneeds and

opportunities in Southeast Asia ASEAN Econ Bull 25 (1)

7ndash19

Hinkel J 2005 DIVA an iterative method for building modular

integrated models Adv Geosci 4 45ndash50

Holling C S 1973 Resilience and stability of ecological systems

Annu Rev Ecol Syst 4 1ndash23

IPCC 2007a Climate Change 2007mdashImpacts Adaptation and

Vulnerability Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth

Assessment Report of the IPCC Cambridge University Press

IPCC 2007b Climate Change 2007mdashThe Physical Science Basis

Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment

Report of the IPCC Cambridge University Press

IUCN TEI IWMI amp M-POWER 2007 Exploring water futures

together Mekong Region Waters Dialogue Report from

regional dialogue the World Conservation Union (IUCN)

Thailand Environment Institute (TEI) International Water

Management Institute (IWMI) amp M-POWER Vientiane

Lao PDR

Jones R G Noguer M Hassell D C Hudson D Wilson S S

Jenkins G J amp Mitchell J F B 2004 Generating High

Resolution Climate Change Scenarios Using PRECIS Met

Office Hadley Centre Exeter UK

Junk W J Bayley P B amp Sparks R E 1989 The flood pulse

concept in river-floodplain systems Can Spec Publ Fish

Aquat Sci 106 110ndash127

Kakonen M 2008 Mekong Delta at the crossroads more control

or adaptation Ambio 37 (3) 205ndash212

Keskinen M 2006 The lake with floating villages socioeconomic

analysis of the Tonle Sap Lake Int J Water Resour Dev

22 (3) 463ndash480

Keskinen M 2008 Water resources development and impact

assessment in the Mekong Basin which way to go Ambio

3 (3) 193ndash198

Keskinen M 2008 Population natural resources amp development in

the Mekong does high population density hinder

development In Modern Myths of the MekongmdashA Critical

Review of Water and Development Concepts Principles and

Policies (ed M Kummu M Keskinen amp O Varis) Water amp

Development Publications Helsinki University of Technology

Espoo Finland

King P Bird J amp Haas L 2007 The Current Status of

Environmental Criteria for Hydropower Development in the

Mekong Region A Literature Compilation Consultants Report

to Asian Development Bank Mekong River Commission

Secretariat and World Wide Fund for Nature Vientiane

Lao PDR

Koponen J Kummu M amp Sarkkula J 2005 Modelling Tonle Sap

Lake environmental change Verhandl Int Vereins Limnol

29 (2) 1083ndash1086

Kummu M 2008 Spatio-temporal Scales of Hydrological Impact

Assessment in Large River Basins the Mekong Case

Dissertation for the degree of Doctor of Science in

Technology Water amp Development Publications Helsinki

University of Technology Espoo Finland

Kummu M amp Sarkkula J 2008 The impact of Mekong river flow

alteration on the Tonle Sap flood pulse and flooded forest

Ambio 37 (3) 185ndash192

Kummu M Sarkkula J Koponen J amp Nikula J 2006 Ecosystem

management of Tonle Sap Lake integrated modelling

approach Int J Water Resour Dev 22 (3) 497ndash519

Leary N Adejuwon J Bailey W Barros V Batima P Caffera

M Chinvanno S Conde C De Comarmond A De

Sherbinin A Downing T Eakin H Nyong A Opondo M

Osman-Elasha B Payet R Pulhin F Pulhin J Ratnasiri J

Sanjak E von Maltitz G Wehbe M Yin Y amp Ziervogel G

2008a For whom the bell tolls vulnerabilities in a changing

climate In Climate Change and Vulnerability (eds Leary N

Conde C Kulkarni J Nyong A amp Pulhin J) Earthscan

London UK pp 3ndash30

Leary N Adejuwon J Barros V Batima P Biagini B Burton I

Chinvanno S Cruz R Dabi D de Comarmond A

Dougherty B Dube P Githeke A Hadid A A

Hellmuth M Kangalawe R Kulkarni J Kumar M Lasco R

Mataki M Medany M Mohsen M Nagy G Njie M

Nkomo J Nyong A Osman-Elasha B Sanjek E Seiler R

Taylor M Travasso M von Maltitz G Wandiga S amp Wehbe

M 2008b A stitch in time general lessons from specific cases

In Climate Change and Adaptation (eds Leary N Adejuwon J

Barros V Burton I Kulkarni J amp Lasco R) Earthscan


Lebel L 2007 Social justice implications of emerging responses to

climate change in Asia USER Briefing BN-2007-09 Unit of

Social and Environmental Research (USER) Chiang Mai

Thailand

Le Blanc D 2009 Climate change and sustainable development

revisited implementation challenges introduction Nat Resour

Forum 33 (4) 259ndash261

Ludwig F amp Moench M 2009 The impacts of climate change on

water In Climate Change Adaptation in the Water Sector

(ed F Ludwig P Kabat H van Schaik amp M van der Valk)

pp 35ndash50 Earthscan London UK

Michel D amp Pandya A (eds) 2009 Troubled WatersmdashClimate

Change Hydropolitics and Transboundary Resources The

Henry L Stimson Center Washington DC USA

Middleton C Garcia J amp Foran T 2009 Old and new

hydropower players in the Mekong Region agendas and

strategies In Contested Waterscapes in the Mekong Regionmdash

Hydropower Livelihoods and Governance (ed F Molle

T Foran amp M Kakonen) pp 23ndash54 Earthscan London UK


Miller F 2003 Society-Water Relations in the Mekong Delta A

Political Ecology of Risk A Thesis submitted in fulfilment

of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy

Division of Geography University of Sydney Australia

Ministry of Environment 2006 National adaptation programme of

action to climate change (NAPA) Endorsed by the Council

of Ministers in its Meeting on 20 October 2006 Ministry of

Environment Phnom Penh Cambodia

Molle F Foran T amp Floch P 2009 Introduction Changing

waterscapes in the Mekong Regionmdashhistorical background and

context In Contested Waterscapes in the Mekong Regionmdash



MONRE MOIT Peoples Provincial Committee of Quang Nam

Peoples Provincial Committee of Ben Tre amp Ministry of

Foreign Affairs Denmark Danida 2008 Climate Change

Adaptation and MitigationmdashVietnam Final Program

Document Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment

(MONRE) Ministry of Industry and Trade (MOIT) Peoples

Provincial Committee of Quang Nam Peoples Provincial

Committee of Ben Tre and Ministry of Foreign Affairs

Denmark

MRC 2003a Social Atlas of the Lower Mekong Basin Mekong

River Commission (MRC) Phnom Penh Cambodia

MRC 2003b State of the Basin Report 2003 Mekong River

Commission (MRC) Phnom Penh Cambodia

MRC 2005 Overview of the Hydrology of the Mekong Basin

Mekong River Commission (MRC) Vientiane Lao PDR

MRC 2008a Existing Under Construction and PlannedProposed

Hydropower Projects in the Lower Mekong Basin September

2008 Map produced by the Mekong River Commission

(MRC) Available online at httpwwwmrcmekongorg

programmeshydropowerhtm

MRC 2008b Concept NotemdashAusAID Support to MRC Environment

Programme Climate Change and Adaptation Initiative 2008ndash

2012 Mekong River Commission (MRC) Vientiane Lao PDR

MRCSWUP-FIN 2006 Mekong Delta Socio-Economic Analysis

ReportmdashInterconnections between water and livelihoods in the

Mekong Delta WUP-FIN Phase 2mdashHydrological

Environmental and Socio-Economic Modelling Tools for the

Lower Mekong Basin Impact Assessment Mekong River

Commission and Finnish Environment Institute Consultancy

Consortium Vientiane Lao PDR

MRCSWUP-FIN 2007 Final ReportmdashPart 2 Research findings and

recommendations WUP-FIN Phase 2mdashHydrological





MRCSWUP-FIN 2008 Technical paper no 1mdashEIA 3D model

manual WUP-FIN Phase 2mdashHydrological environmental and

socio-economic modelling tools for the Lower Mekong Basin

impact assessment Mekong River Commission and Finnish

Environment Institute Consultancy Consortium Vietnam

Lao PDR

Nakicenovic N amp Swart R 2000 Special report on emissions

scenarios A special report of working group III of the

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Cambridge

University Press Cambridge UK

Nuorteva P 2009 Resilience and Adaptation Strategies of Rural

Livelihoods in Tonle Sap Area Cambodia Masterrsquos Thesis

Department of Geography University of Helsinki Finland

Nuorteva P Keskinen M amp Varis O 2010 Water livelihoods and

climate change adaptation in the Tonle Sap Lake area

CambodiamdashLearning from the past to understand the future

Journal of Water and Climate Change 1 (1) 87ndash101

Poole C 2005 Tonle SapmdashThe Heart of Cambodiarsquos Natural

Heritage Wildlife Conservation Society the River Books Co

Ltd Bangkok Thailand

Resurreccion B P Sajor E E amp Fajber E 2008 Climate

adaptation in Asia knowledge gaps and research issues in

South East Asia Full Report of the South East Asia Team

Climate Change Adaptation ISET-International and ISET-

Nepal Kathmandu Nepal

Roeckner E Arpe K Bengtsson L Christoph M Claussen M

Dumenil L Esch M Giorgetta M Schlese U amp

Schulzweida U 1996 The atmospheric general circulation

model ECHAM-4 Model description and simulation of

present-day climate MPI-Report 218

Rowcroft P 2008 Frontiers of change the reasons behind land-use

change in the Mekong Basin Ambio 37 (3) 213ndash218

Sarkkula J Keskinen M Koponen J Kummu M Richey J E

amp Varis O 2009 Hydropower in the Mekong Region what

are the likely impacts upon fisheries In Contested

Waterscapes in the Mekong RegionmdashHydropower Livelihoods

and Governance (ed F Molle T Foran amp M Kakonen)

pp 227ndash249 Earthscan London

SEA START RC amp WWF 2008 Climate Change impacts in Krabi

Province ThailandmdashA study of environmental social and

economic challenges Southeast Asia START Regional Center

and WWF Greater Mekong Programme

SEI 2009 New programme on climate adaptation in Asia by Delia

Paul Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI) Online source

accessed 15th December 2009 httpsei-internationalorg

indexphpnews-and-media1621-climate-adaptation-in-asia-

finding-out-what-we-dont-know-sharing-what-we-do

Shaochuang L Pingli L Donghui L amp Peidong J 2007

Pinpointing source of Mekong and measuring its length

through analysis of satellite imagery and field investigations

Geo-Spat Inf Sci 10 (1) 51ndash56

SIWRP amp VNMC 2003 Analysis of Sub-Area 10V Report for Basin

Development Plan Sub-Institute of Water Resources Planning

(SIWRP) and Vietnam National Mekong Committee (VNMC)

Hanoi Vietnam

The Socialist Republic of Vietnam 2008 Decision on approval of the

National Target Program to respond to climate change

Unofficial Translation of Vietnamese Version Hanoi Vietnam

TKK amp SEA START RC 2008 Water and Climate Change in the

Lower Mekong Basin Diagnosis amp recommendations for

adaptationmdashInterim Report Water and Development Research


Group Helsinki University of Technology (TKK) and

Southeast Asia START Regional Center (SEA START RC)

Chulalongkorn University Water amp Development

Publications Helsinki University of Technology Espoo

Finland



adaptation Water and Development Research Group Helsinki

University of Technology (TKK) and Southeast Asia START

Regional Center (SEA START RC) Chulalongkorn University

Water amp Development Publications Helsinki University of

Technology Espoo Finland

UNDP 2006 Human Development Report 2006mdashBeyond Scarcity

Power Poverty and the Global Water Crisis

The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP)

New York USA

Vastila K 2009 Climate Change Impacts on Floods in the Lower

Mekong Floodplains Modelling Approach for Tonle Sap Lake

Thesis for Master of Science in Technology Helsinki

University of Technology Finland

Vastila K Kummu M Snidvongs A amp Chinvanno S 2010

Modelling climate change impacts on the flood pulse in the

Lower Mekong floodplains Journal of Water and Climate


World Resources Institute in collaboration with United Nations

Development Programme United Nations Environment

Programme amp World Bank 2008 World resources 2008 Roots

of resiliencemdashgrowing the wealth of the poor World Resources

Institute (WRI) Washington DC USA

World Water Assessment Programme 2009 The United Nations

World Water Development Report 3 Water in a Changing

World UNESCO Paris and Earthscan London

WWF 2009 Greater Mekong Climate Change Adaptation agreement

a worldrsquos first in the making World Wide Fund for Nature

(WWF) Online resource accessed 15th December 2009

httpwwwpandaorgthuNewsIDfrac14171621

First received 15 July 2009 accepted in revised form 14 January 2010


Climate change andwater resources in the LowerMekong

River Basin putting adaptation into the context

M Keskinen S Chinvanno M Kummu P Nuorteva A Snidvongs

O Varis and K Vastila

ABSTRACT

M Keskinen (corresponding author)

M Kummu

P Nuorteva

O Varis

K Vastila

Water and Development Research Group

Aalto University

PO Box 15200

00076 AALTO

Finland

Tel +358 50 3824626

Fax +358 9 47023856

E-mail keskinenikifi

S Chinvanno

A Snidvongs

Southeast Asia START Regional Center

Chulalongkorn University

Chulawich 1 Building

Bangkok 10330

Thailand

Adaptation to climate change has become one of the focal points of current development

discussion This article summarises the findings from a multidisciplinary research project looking

at climate change impacts and adaptation in the Mekong River Basin in Southeast Asia

The research highlights the central role that the hydrological cycle has in mediating climate

change impacts on ecosystems and societies The findings indicate that climate change should

not be studied in isolation as there are several other factors that are affecting the hydrological

cycle In the Mekong the most important such factor is the on-going hydropower development

that is likely to induce changes at least as radical as climate change but with shorter timescales

The article concludes that climate change adaptation should broaden its view to consider

environmental changes likely to occur due to different factors at various spatial and temporal

scales It is also important to recognise that climate change adaptation is a dynamic

development-orientated process that should consider also broader socio-political context

To enable this we propose that an area-based adaptation approach should be used more actively

to complement the dominant sector-based approaches

Key words | adaptation policies climate change adaptation livelihoods Mekong Delta Tonle Sap

water resources management

ABBREVIATIONS

3D Three-Dimensional

CC Climate Change

CCCO Cambodian Climate Change Office

DIVA Dynamic and Interactive Vulnerability

Assessment a method for modular

integrated modelling

ECHAM An atmospheric general circulation

model

EEA European Environment Agency

EIA Environmental Impact Assessment

Center of Finland Ltd

IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate

Change

IUCN International Union for Conservation

of Nature

MOIT Ministry of Industry and Trade Vietnam

MONRE Ministry of Natural Resources and

Environment Vietnam

MRC Mekong River Commission

MRCS Mekong River Commission Secretariat

NAPA National Adaptation Program of Action

to Climate Change

POM Princeton Ocean Model

PRECIS Providing REgional Climates for Impacts

Studies a regional climate modelling

system

SEA START RC Southeast Asia START Regional Center

SEI Stockholm Environment Institute

doi 102166wcc2010009

103 Q IWA Publishing 2010 Journal of Water and Climate Change | 012 | 2010


Planning Vietnam





UN United Nations


Programme


Programme





INTRODUCTION















Programme 2009 68)
















































et al 2008)





























adaptation






























































































Ca Mau

Kratie

Prek Kdam

Can Tho

Chau Doc

SiemReap

PHNOM PENH

Stung Treng

Sihanoukville

Ho Chi Minh City

VIETNAM


14deg00N

12deg00N

10deg00N

100km

Permament water

Floodplain

Countries

Tonle S

ap

River

Mekong

Stung S

en

Bassac

South China Sea

Gulf of Thailand

CAMBODIA


























METHODS























rdin

atio

n m

anag

emen

t and

mee

tings

Diagnosis

Scenarios


Basin wideplanning

A

B

CD

AIIAI


Tonle sapBI BII

BIII

Nature NaturePeople






















































































RESULTS































































approaches









adaptation measures






















START RC 2009)





















in these actions














vulnerability









































DISCUSSION











































































CONCLUSIONS
























different impacts





























45



15

Pre

cipi

tatio

n ch

ange

(

)

0

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050


300

200

100

Sea

leve

l cha

nge

(mm

)

0

Res

ervo

ir st

orag

e (k

m3 )

90

60

30

0


next 5ndash15 years







(2007) and MRC (2008a)

















































































is taking place














































ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS














REFERENCES











34 (1) 77ndash96



Phnom Penh Cambodia







Office UNDP






Earthscan London UK
















Flagship report








7ndash19
















Lao PDR












22 (3) 463ndash480



3 (3) 193ndash198







Espoo Finland






Lao PDR



29 (2) 1083ndash1086



































Thailand






































Denmark

































Lao PDR

















































Hanoi Vietnam












Finland











New York USA
























Planning Vietnam





UN United Nations


Programme


Programme





INTRODUCTION















Programme 2009 68)
















































et al 2008)





























adaptation






























































































Ca Mau

Kratie

Prek Kdam

Can Tho

Chau Doc

SiemReap

PHNOM PENH

Stung Treng

Sihanoukville

Ho Chi Minh City

VIETNAM


14deg00N

12deg00N

10deg00N

100km

Permament water

Floodplain

Countries

Tonle S

ap

River

Mekong

Stung S

en

Bassac

South China Sea

Gulf of Thailand

CAMBODIA


























METHODS























rdin

atio

n m

anag

emen

t and

mee

tings

Diagnosis

Scenarios


Basin wideplanning

A

B

CD

AIIAI


Tonle sapBI BII

BIII

Nature NaturePeople






















































































RESULTS































































approaches









adaptation measures






















START RC 2009)





















in these actions














vulnerability









































DISCUSSION











































































CONCLUSIONS
























different impacts





























45



15

Pre

cipi

tatio

n ch

ange

(

)

0

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050


300

200

100

Sea

leve

l cha

nge

(mm

)

0

Res

ervo

ir st

orag

e (k

m3 )

90

60

30

0


next 5ndash15 years







(2007) and MRC (2008a)

















































































is taking place














































ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS














REFERENCES











34 (1) 77ndash96



Phnom Penh Cambodia







Office UNDP






Earthscan London UK
















Flagship report








7ndash19
















Lao PDR












22 (3) 463ndash480



3 (3) 193ndash198







Espoo Finland






Lao PDR



29 (2) 1083ndash1086



































Thailand






































Denmark

































Lao PDR

















































Hanoi Vietnam












Finland











New York USA












































adaptation






























































































Ca Mau

Kratie

Prek Kdam

Can Tho

Chau Doc

SiemReap

PHNOM PENH

Stung Treng

Sihanoukville

Ho Chi Minh City

VIETNAM


14deg00N

12deg00N

10deg00N

100km

Permament water

Floodplain

Countries

Tonle S

ap

River

Mekong

Stung S

en

Bassac

South China Sea

Gulf of Thailand

CAMBODIA


























METHODS























rdin

atio

n m

anag

emen

t and

mee

tings

Diagnosis

Scenarios


Basin wideplanning

A

B

CD

AIIAI


Tonle sapBI BII

BIII

Nature NaturePeople






















































































RESULTS































































approaches









adaptation measures






















START RC 2009)





















in these actions














vulnerability









































DISCUSSION











































































CONCLUSIONS
























different impacts





























45



15

Pre

cipi

tatio

n ch

ange

(

)

0

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050


300

200

100

Sea

leve

l cha

nge

(mm

)

0

Res

ervo

ir st

orag

e (k

m3 )

90

60

30

0


next 5ndash15 years







(2007) and MRC (2008a)

















































































is taking place














































ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS














REFERENCES











34 (1) 77ndash96



Phnom Penh Cambodia







Office UNDP






Earthscan London UK
















Flagship report








7ndash19
















Lao PDR












22 (3) 463ndash480



3 (3) 193ndash198







Espoo Finland






Lao PDR



29 (2) 1083ndash1086



































Thailand






































Denmark

































Lao PDR

















































Hanoi Vietnam












Finland











New York USA



















































Ca Mau

Kratie

Prek Kdam

Can Tho

Chau Doc

SiemReap

PHNOM PENH

Stung Treng

Sihanoukville

Ho Chi Minh City

VIETNAM


14deg00N

12deg00N

10deg00N

100km

Permament water

Floodplain

Countries

Tonle S

ap

River

Mekong

Stung S

en

Bassac

South China Sea

Gulf of Thailand

CAMBODIA


























METHODS























rdin

atio

n m

anag

emen

t and

mee

tings

Diagnosis

Scenarios


Basin wideplanning

A

B

CD

AIIAI


Tonle sapBI BII

BIII

Nature NaturePeople






















































































RESULTS































































approaches









adaptation measures






















START RC 2009)





















in these actions














vulnerability









































DISCUSSION











































































CONCLUSIONS
























different impacts





























45



15

Pre

cipi

tatio

n ch

ange

(

)

0

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050


300

200

100

Sea

leve

l cha

nge

(mm

)

0

Res

ervo

ir st

orag

e (k

m3 )

90

60

30

0


next 5ndash15 years







(2007) and MRC (2008a)

















































































is taking place














































ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS














REFERENCES











34 (1) 77ndash96



Phnom Penh Cambodia







Office UNDP






Earthscan London UK
















Flagship report








7ndash19
















Lao PDR












22 (3) 463ndash480



3 (3) 193ndash198







Espoo Finland






Lao PDR



29 (2) 1083ndash1086



































Thailand






































Denmark

































Lao PDR

















































Hanoi Vietnam












Finland











New York USA














































METHODS























rdin

atio

n m

anag

emen

t and

mee

tings

Diagnosis

Scenarios


Basin wideplanning

A

B

CD

AIIAI


Tonle sapBI BII

BIII

Nature NaturePeople






















































































RESULTS































































approaches









adaptation measures






















START RC 2009)





















in these actions














vulnerability









































DISCUSSION











































































CONCLUSIONS
























different impacts





























45



15

Pre

cipi

tatio

n ch

ange

(

)

0

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050


300

200

100

Sea

leve

l cha

nge

(mm

)

0

Res

ervo

ir st

orag

e (k

m3 )

90

60

30

0


next 5ndash15 years







(2007) and MRC (2008a)

















































































is taking place














































ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS














REFERENCES











34 (1) 77ndash96



Phnom Penh Cambodia







Office UNDP






Earthscan London UK
















Flagship report








7ndash19
















Lao PDR












22 (3) 463ndash480



3 (3) 193ndash198







Espoo Finland






Lao PDR



29 (2) 1083ndash1086



































Thailand






































Denmark

































Lao PDR

















































Hanoi Vietnam












Finland











New York USA




































































































RESULTS































































approaches









adaptation measures






















START RC 2009)





















in these actions














vulnerability









































DISCUSSION











































































CONCLUSIONS
























different impacts





























45



15

Pre

cipi

tatio

n ch

ange

(

)

0

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050


300

200

100

Sea

leve

l cha

nge

(mm

)

0

Res

ervo

ir st

orag

e (k

m3 )

90

60

30

0


next 5ndash15 years







(2007) and MRC (2008a)

















































































is taking place














































ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS














REFERENCES











34 (1) 77ndash96



Phnom Penh Cambodia







Office UNDP






Earthscan London UK
















Flagship report








7ndash19
















Lao PDR












22 (3) 463ndash480



3 (3) 193ndash198







Espoo Finland






Lao PDR



29 (2) 1083ndash1086



































Thailand






































Denmark

































Lao PDR

















































Hanoi Vietnam












Finland











New York USA














































































approaches









adaptation measures






















START RC 2009)





















in these actions














vulnerability









































DISCUSSION











































































CONCLUSIONS
























different impacts





























45



15

Pre

cipi

tatio

n ch

ange

(

)

0

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050


300

200

100

Sea

leve

l cha

nge

(mm

)

0

Res

ervo

ir st

orag

e (k

m3 )

90

60

30

0


next 5ndash15 years







(2007) and MRC (2008a)

















































































is taking place














































ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS














REFERENCES











34 (1) 77ndash96



Phnom Penh Cambodia







Office UNDP






Earthscan London UK
















Flagship report








7ndash19
















Lao PDR












22 (3) 463ndash480



3 (3) 193ndash198







Espoo Finland






Lao PDR



29 (2) 1083ndash1086



































Thailand






































Denmark

































Lao PDR

















































Hanoi Vietnam












Finland











New York USA
























START RC 2009)





















in these actions














vulnerability









































DISCUSSION











































































CONCLUSIONS
























different impacts





























45



15

Pre

cipi

tatio

n ch

ange

(

)

0

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050


300

200

100

Sea

leve

l cha

nge

(mm

)

0

Res

ervo

ir st

orag

e (k

m3 )

90

60

30

0


next 5ndash15 years







(2007) and MRC (2008a)

















































































is taking place














































ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS














REFERENCES











34 (1) 77ndash96



Phnom Penh Cambodia







Office UNDP






Earthscan London UK
















Flagship report








7ndash19
















Lao PDR












22 (3) 463ndash480



3 (3) 193ndash198







Espoo Finland






Lao PDR



29 (2) 1083ndash1086



































Thailand






































Denmark

































Lao PDR

















































Hanoi Vietnam












Finland











New York USA




























































































CONCLUSIONS
























different impacts





























45



15

Pre

cipi

tatio

n ch

ange

(

)

0

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050


300

200

100

Sea

leve

l cha

nge

(mm

)

0

Res

ervo

ir st

orag

e (k

m3 )

90

60

30

0


next 5ndash15 years







(2007) and MRC (2008a)

















































































is taking place














































ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS














REFERENCES











34 (1) 77ndash96



Phnom Penh Cambodia







Office UNDP






Earthscan London UK
















Flagship report








7ndash19
















Lao PDR












22 (3) 463ndash480



3 (3) 193ndash198







Espoo Finland






Lao PDR



29 (2) 1083ndash1086



































Thailand






































Denmark

































Lao PDR

















































Hanoi Vietnam












Finland











New York USA






































































































is taking place














































ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS














REFERENCES











34 (1) 77ndash96



Phnom Penh Cambodia







Office UNDP






Earthscan London UK
















Flagship report








7ndash19
















Lao PDR












22 (3) 463ndash480



3 (3) 193ndash198







Espoo Finland






Lao PDR



29 (2) 1083ndash1086



































Thailand






































Denmark

































Lao PDR

















































Hanoi Vietnam












Finland











New York USA





























































ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS














REFERENCES











34 (1) 77ndash96



Phnom Penh Cambodia







Office UNDP






Earthscan London UK
















Flagship report








7ndash19
















Lao PDR












22 (3) 463ndash480



3 (3) 193ndash198







Espoo Finland






Lao PDR



29 (2) 1083ndash1086



































Thailand






































Denmark

































Lao PDR

















































Hanoi Vietnam












Finland











New York USA



























Flagship report








7ndash19
















Lao PDR












22 (3) 463ndash480



3 (3) 193ndash198







Espoo Finland






Lao PDR



29 (2) 1083ndash1086



































Thailand






































Denmark

































Lao PDR

















































Hanoi Vietnam












Finland











New York USA












































Denmark

































Lao PDR

















































Hanoi Vietnam












Finland











New York USA



























Finland











New York USA























Climate change and water resources in the Lower Mekong River Basin: putting adaptation into the...

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Transcript of Climate change and water resources in the Lower Mekong River Basin: putting adaptation into the...