ORIGINAL ARTICLE

Building blocks of economic resilience to climate change:a south east Australian fisheries example

Ingrid E. van Putten • Sarah Jennings • Stewart Frusher • Caleb Gardner •

Marcus Haward • Alistair J. Hobday • Melissa Nursey-Bray • Gretta Pecl •

Andre Punt • Hilary Revill

Received: 18 July 2012 / Accepted: 30 March 2013

� Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2013

Abstract Climate change will impact on ecological,

social, and economic elements of fisheries; however, the

three are seldom considered in an integrated fashion. We

develop a fishery-level assessment of economic resilience

to climate change for the Tasmanian rock lobster fishery, a

linked social–ecological system. We outline the main cli-

mate change forcing influences that link climate change to

the fishery via changes in lobster abundance, distribution,

and phenology. Using a bottom-up approach, we identify

twelve economic attributes strongly related to the fisheries’

economic resilience to climate change. Resilience attri-

butes are grouped according to the level of the economic

domain (business, sectoral, and governance). Attributes are

then evaluated to determine the overall economic resilience

of the rock lobster fishery in the context of the specific

nature of predicted climate change effects. We identify

areas of low resilience in the economic sub-system for this

fishery. Evaluating the economic resilience of regional

fisheries using this integrated, interdisciplinary framework

provides a practical, parsimonious, and conceptually sound

basis for undertaking comprehensive and contextually tai-

lored assessments of climate change impacts and economic

vulnerability. The framework can be extended to include a

broader range of climate change impacts and the social

domain of the human sub-system.

Keywords Climate change � Economic resilience � Rock

lobster fishery � Social–ecological system � Adaptation

Introduction

Changes are already occurring in marine environments that

are consistent with expectations under climate change

(IPCC 2007; Burrows et al. 2011; Lough and Hobday

2011). Even though there are significant uncertainties

associated with the timing, location, and magnitude of

future climate change (Hobday 2010), biological impacts

I. E. van Putten (&)

Wealth from Oceans Flagship, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric

Research, Hobart, TAS, Australia

e-mail: ingrid.vanputten@csiro.au

I. E. van Putten � S. Frusher � C. Gardner � M. Haward � G. Pecl

Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of

Tasmania, Hobart, TAS, Australia

I. E. van Putten � S. Jennings � S. Frusher � M. Haward �A. J. Hobday � M. Nursey-Bray � G. Pecl

Adaptation Research Network for Marine Biodiversity and

Resources (NCCARF), Hobart, Australia

S. Jennings

School of Economics and Finance, University of Tasmania,

Hobart, TAS, Australia

A. J. Hobday

Climate Adaptation Flagship, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric

Research, Hobart, TAS, Australia

M. Nursey-Bray

Department of Geography, Environment and Population,

University of Adelaide, Adelaide, Australia

A. Punt

School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences, University of

Washington, Seattle, USA

H. Revill

Tasmanian Department of Primary Industries and Water, Wild

Fisheries Management Branch, Hobart, TAS, Australia

123

Reg Environ Change

DOI 10.1007/s10113-013-0456-0

will include changes in marine species abundance

(Simpson et al. 2011), distribution (Last et al. 2011),

physiology (Somero 2010; Neuheimer et al. 2011), and

phenology (Dufour et al. 2010), affecting, amongst other

things, future fisheries’ catches and profitability (Hobday

et al. 2008; Cheung et al. 2010; Grafton 2010) and

challenging sustainability and food security (Rice and

Garcia 2011).

Some argue that because fishers have historically coped

with short-term uncertainty in biological and economic

conditions, and inter-annual variation in resource avail-

ability as a matter of course, they have a relatively high

capacity to adapt to the longer-term challenges presented

by climate change (Mazur et al. 2010; Pitcher and Ains-

worth 2010). However, climate change threatens to push

marine systems beyond their historical ranges of variability

and uncertainty, creating a complex and unpredictable mix

of challenges (Perry et al. 2011). Effective fishery-level

adaptation planning must be underpinned by an under-

standing of the way in which climate and other drivers

force change in the biophysical system and the effect of

resulting perturbations on the fishery and the role of

resilience of the linked socio-ecological system in deter-

mining vulnerability (Adger et al. 2005; Allison et al. 2005,

2009; O’Brien et al. 2007).

One way to depict this social–ecological fishery system

is through linking three major sub-systems: the forcing

system (Anderson and Anderson 2010), the biophysical

system, and the human system (Fig. 1). Arrows indicate

connections and feedback between all three sub-systems.

The human sub-system consists of linked economic and

social domains.

The arrows on the left hand side of Fig. 1 indicate the

feedback impacts of the human sub-system on climate

change (e.g. greenhouse gas emissions) and the biophysical

system (e.g. fishing and pollution). The human sub-system

is impacted by aggregate biophysical climate change

effects, such as changes in species distribution, abundance,

and fishable biomass. Change in the human sub-system of

the fishery is also forced indirectly via changes in the rel-

ative prices of both inputs and outputs (e.g. Perry et al.

2011). While difficult to predict, the forcing of change on

the human system via general equilibrium effects in mar-

kets at various scales (regional, national and global) may

present important sources of climate change-related expo-

sure for regional fisheries.

The human component of regional fisheries systems is

also perturbed by changes in climate that directly affect

human activity in the marine environment (light grey arrow

in Fig. 1) such as an increase in the frequency of high wind

events (and storms) which directly affects the number of

‘fishable’ days, fuel efficiency, insurance costs, maintain-

ing shore-based community infrastructure, such as

wharves, and design of fishing gear.

The resilience of this socio-ecological can be defined as

its ‘‘ability to absorb disturbances while retaining the same

basic structure and ways of functioning, the capacity for

self-organisation, and the capacity to adapt to stress and

change’’ (IPCC 2007, p. 880). This definition effectively

encompasses both the static notion of resilience where a

system retains its original way of functioning (Rose 2004)

and the dynamic characterisation of resilience (Kelly and

Adger 2000) where the systems reorganises into a new

state.

In this study, we provide a framework for ‘unpacking’

the static notion of economic resilience at the scale of an

individual fishery. We use the Tasmanian rock lobster

fishery which is located within a marine climate change hot

spot (Hobday and Pecl in review) as a case study, and draw

on, and extend the work of Pecl et al. (2009), and Nursey-

Bray et al. (2012). We begin by describing the lobster

fishery as a complex social–ecological system (Perry et al.

2011; Ostrom 2009) and contextualise our discussion on

economic resilience. We then present a qualitative assess-

ment of predicted climate change forcing influences on the

biology and ecology of the lobster and the implications for

lobster abundance, distribution, and phenology. We iden-

tify and organise economic resilience attributes for the

fishery according to a three-level classification which

enables us to identify particular areas of resilience. The

Fig. 1 Characterisation of regional fishery as a social–ecological

system showing relationships, including feedbacks, between predicted

climate change forcing influences, biological and ecosystem pertur-

bation variables, climate change effects, and the domains of the

human sub-system

I. E. van Putten et al.

123

framework for assessing fishery-level economic resilience

effectively connects the human domain to climate change-

induced biophysical perturbations.

A number of studies have developed biological, social,

and economic indicators of resilience (Moss et al. 2001;

Eriksen and Kelly 2007; Allison et al. 2009) and of general

‘economic health’ (Moss et al. 2001; Eriksen and Kelly

2007; Allison et al. 2009) for fisheries. However, we

deliberately focus on key economic attributes that are

strongly linked to the ability of a fishery (in this case

southern rock lobster) to cope with projected effects of

climate change in this socio-economic system.

The Tasmanian rock lobster fishery

The southern rock lobster growth rates and population

dynamics are influenced by warmer sea surface tempera-

tures (SST’s). The ocean on the east coast of Australia,

where this lobster occurs, is warming (Allison et al. 2009;

Badjeck et al. 2010) at almost four times the global average

(2.28 �C per century on the east coast) (Poloczanska et al.

2007; Hobday et al. 2008; Lough and Hobday 2011) due to

both general ocean warming and a southward extension of

the East Australia Current (EAC) (Ridgway 2007; Hill et al.

2008). While warmer sea surface temperatures (SST’s) are

considered the primary variable influencing the rock lob-

ster, additional variables may also have an impact. For

example, wind speed, ocean current speed, and direction

influences settlement patterns of lobster larvae (Ridgway

2007; Hill et al. 2008). In addition, ocean acidification may

adversely affect organisms that use calcium carbonate for

their skeletons and shells (Griffin et al. 2001), as well as

other non-morphological traits (Hall-Spencer et al. 2008).

Rock lobsters have a complex life history, with a pro-

tracted phyllosoma larval stage (12–24 months) in oceanic

waters off the continental shelf. At the end of this phase,

puerulus recruit to coastal reefs and begin the benthic phase

of their life cycle (Munday et al. 2009). Growth occurs in

discrete steps, with juvenile lobsters typically moulting

several times each year. Mature lobsters typically moult

only once per year. Females are generally smaller than

males as they divert greater energy into reproduction.

There is extensive spatial variation in rock lobster growth

rates with smaller slower-growing lobsters in cooler southern

regions and faster larger-growing lobsters in warmer northern

regions around Tasmania (Gardner et al. 2006). Growth is

also affected by food availability and population density

(Punt et al. 1997). Juvenile and adult lobsters live in rocky

reef and are targeted by the fishery in depths from intertidal to

150 m. Inshore reefs are dominated by macroalgae down to

around 25 m with sponges and other encrusting invertebrates

dominating deeper reefs.

Rock lobsters rocky reef habitat is undergoing change in

some areas through overgrazing from the urchin Centro-

stephanus rodgersii. This species has extended its range

southward into Tasmania over the last 30 years and creates

so-called urchin barrens (Chandrapavan et al. 2009). The

southward incursion of C. rogersii and its successful estab-

lishment in Tasmanian waters are due to higher average water

temperatures during the larval period in late winter and

increased larval transport by the southerly extension of the

EAC (Ling et al. 2009). Populations of C. rogersii estab-

lishing in Tasmania appear to have been released from pre-

dation pressure as the numbers of large lobsters that prey on

the urchin have declined. The climate change forcing influ-

ences have also led to changes in a range of other species

including the eastern rock lobster Sagimarius verreauxi,

which is currently captured in low numbers in Tasmania

(Ling 2008). Rock lobster is predated on by a range of finfish

species and octopus (Last et al. 2011; Johnson et al. 2011).

The Tasmanian rock lobster (Jasus edwardsii) fishery is

the second largest commercial Tasmanian wild harvest

fishery in terms of revenue, estimated to be $72 million at

the first point of landing (2008/09 quota year, DPIW

database April 2009). In 2007, there were 221 active

licensed vessels. There is also a popular recreational rock

lobster fishery with 10 % of the total allowable catch

(TAC) allocated to this sector.

The rock lobster catch is mainly sold live into Asian

markets with 80 % shipped to China. The Chinese market

tends to be controlled by Chinese importers with a few

wholesale buyers controlling the entry points (Mills et al.

2006; Harrington et al. 2007). The beach price is mainly

determined by seasonal changes in demand from these

overseas markets and currency exchange rates. Traits of the

individual lobster, including weight and colour, affect price.

Premium prices are paid for lobsters with dark red shells that

are caught in shallow water (Griffiths and Pauley 2002).

Rock lobster is managed using output controls and

individual transferable quota (ITQ), the latter of which

were introduced in 1998. Quota allocation per unit is a

function of the total allowable commercial catch (TACC).

Fishers can operate for the majority of the year, but tra-

ditionally, catches peak during the summer months of

November to February. Female rock lobster can only be

harvested between November and April.

There are substantial differences between fishers in

terms of landing ports, vessel size, seasonality of fishing

activity, and quota ownership characteristics. Small vessels

are generally not equipped to travel to the more remote and

rough-fishing grounds. Catch is landed at many ports

around Tasmania. At the landing ports, processors take

possession of the catch, transporting it to their premises for

subsequent export. Greater separation between active

fishing and quota ownership has been observed and there

Building blocks of economic resilience

123

are expanding classes of both fishers who are reliant on

leasing quota and those who are non-fishing investors

(Hamon 2008; Chandrapavan et al. 2009).

Methodology

Our analysis is centred on qualitative social research

methods and uses a structured, mixed method approach. As

Espinosa-Romero et al. note, such approaches ‘‘can help

stakeholders and managers construct (a) framework …based on the values of the participants, which can be used

to create, evaluate and select between alternatives’’ (2011,

p. 576) This approach links primary data obtained from the

research team and other key informants with data from

secondary sources such as scientific papers and the broader

grey literature. Expert opinion can bridge incomplete pro-

cess understanding and a lack of experimental data. Expert

opinion can also be used to operationalise academic

research, in particular when timescales are short and policy

demands urgent (Vrana et al. 2012).

The research drew on key elements of adaptive capacity

identified from the literature, recognising an increasing

interest in socio-ecological systems as frameworks for

enhancing adaptation and sustainability (see for example,

Ostrom 2009). Adaptive capacity can be defined as the

resources available to adapt to change as it occurs and the

capability to deploy these resources in order to achieve

adaptation goals. The economic condition of individuals and

groups is an indicator of resilience (Rowan et al. 2012; Brand

and Jax 2007).

We use a ‘bottom-up’ approach incorporating an expert

workshop to operationalise the assessment of economic

resilience within the socio-ecological system. The 10 mem-

ber research team drew on a breadth of disciplinary back-

grounds (economics, political science, geography, fisheries

science, management, and marine ecology) and utilised data

obtained in a major study of the likely impacts of climate

change on the rock lobster fishery (Pecl et al. 2009; Nursey-

Bray et al. 2012). Team members, who had worked together

on previous projects, had also all been involved in interdis-

ciplinary work and understood the principals of a socio-

ecological system. The aim of the 1-day workshop, which

was to assess the climate change relevance of economic

resilience attributes in the fishery, was clearly explained to

team members both prior to and at the workshop. The

development and scoring of the economic resilience attri-

butes was carried out in four steps outlined below:

1. literature review:

• a comprehensive list of economic resilience attri-

butes was prepared (i.e. Anderson and Anderson

2010a).

2. pre-workshop information briefing:

• the aim of the workshop was explained and team

members familiarised themselves with economic

resilience attributes.

3. workshop:

• economic resilience attributes considered most

relevant to climate change were prioritised;

• each of the attributes was allocated to either the

micro-, meso- or macro-scale category;

• the process by which the attribute is affected by

climate change was described (abundance, distri-

bution, and phenology);

• the way in which each economic attribute contrib-

utes to resilience was described, and

• the current status of the economic attribute in the

system was established.

The 1-day workshop provided an avenue for face-to-

face interactions. The iterative convergence towards a

common assessment was achieved post-workshop, via

online (and email) discussions over a period of 5 months.1

These post-workshop discussion achieved the following:

• a deepening of the understanding of the relationship

between climate change effects (abundance, distribu-

tion, and phenology) and individual economic resil-

ience attributes;

• an iterative exchange of reasoning and opinion to

achieve a consensus scoring of the current status of

economic resilience attributes in the system;

In this way, the ability of the rock lobster fishery to cope

with the predicted effects of climate change was evaluated

against a total of twelve individual economic resilience

attributes which were linked to the three climate change

effects (abundance, distribution, and phenology). A sub-

jective scoring of high or low resilience strength was

assigned to each attribute by the expert team. A high (low)

scoring indicated that, with respect to that particular eco-

nomic resilience attribute, the consensus view of the team

of experts was that the fishery was (was not) well posi-

tioned both to meet the challenges and to take advantage of

the opportunities presented by climate change. In cases

where the current status of the attribute was considered to

afford no particular advantage or disadvantage in this

respect, a ‘neutral’ level was assigned.

1 Due to workshop participants’ time constraints further input and

discussion were sought via email and through the provision of

comments in writing. Agreement on the scoring of attributes was

achieved in this manner.

I. E. van Putten et al.

123

Results

Linking climate change to rock lobster biology

and ecology

To understand the links between (1) the climate change

forcing influences, (2) the biological and ecosystem per-

turbation variables, and (3) the direct and indirect eco-

nomic impacts are complex. We first summarise and

classify each perturbation variable according to whether it

affects lobster abundance, distribution, and/or phenology

(Table 1) then link this to the economic system in the next

Section.

The uncertainty associated with the predicted effect of

forcing influences on each perturbation variable is largely

undetermined and hence, not indicated in Table 1. Simi-

larly, information on the ‘strength’ of the impact of forcing

influences on the perturbation variables is not widely

available. For instance, even though rising sea temperature

is known to affect all nine perturbation variables, it is

unknown which variable will be most severely affected. It

is also not known which perturbation variable will have the

greatest impact on the fishing resource in terms of its effect

on abundance, distribution, and phenology. Second order

effects, such as the expected colour change of rock lobster

due to changes in spatial and depth distribution, are not

shown in Table 1.

Economic resilience attributes

Four attributes captured the ability of individual rock lob-

ster fishers and of the owners of quota entitlement to cope

with and adapt to climate-related changes. At the fisher

level, key economic resilience attributes are profitability

and product mix. For quota asset owners, return on capital

and access to capital are key to economic resilience. At the

sectoral level, five contextually important resilience attri-

butes were identified. Three of these, namely diversifica-

tion, information flow, and sectoral climate change

planning, relate to fishery supply chains and markets. The

fourth sectoral-level resilience attributes, input flexibility

and infrastructure, relate to the fishing fleet. Three gover-

nance-level economic considerations were central to the

resilience of the rock lobster fishery: property rights; co-

management; and resource-sharing arrangements.

Although we do not draw the distinction here, overall

resilience derives both from inherent responses at all three

organisational levels and from adaptive responses ema-

nating from and orchestrated by private and public sector

units and/or institutions (Miller et al. 2010; Brand and Jax

2007; Carpenter and Brock 2008). A ‘current status over-

view’ of the perceived strengths and weaknesses of attri-

butes at the three organisational levels of the fishery is

shown in Table 2. Most of the literature we draw on to

underpin our assessment are specific to this local system. In

a number of cases, other explanations can be found in the

broader and general literature.

The socio-economic system that is the focus here is

affected by climate change, but is not isolated from other

exogenous drivers. Moreover, the system resilience

assessment reflects the structure of current industry and

management and does not explicitly consider the possi-

bility of system restructuring and the possibility for new

opportunities to emerge.

Abundance and distribution changes affect attributes

across all levels in the fishery. In particular, the impact of

changes in abundance will pressure all business (micro)

level and governance-level attributes. Coping with changes

Table 1 Links between climate change forcing influences, biological and ecosystem perturbation variables and observed or expected climate

change effects (i.e. abundance, distribution and phenology) for the Tasmanian rock lobster fishery

Biological and ecosystem

perturbation variables

Climate change forcing influences Climate change effects

Wind strength Sea currents pH Salinity Sea temperature Abundance = A Distribution = D

Phenology = P

Puerulus settlement 4 4 ? 4 4 A, D, P

Post-settlement survival ? 4 4 A

Moulting ? 4 4 P

Growth rates ? 4 A, P

Suitable habitat (range and depth) 4 4 4 4 A, D

Other lobster species 4 4 ? 4 A

Number and suite of predators 4 4 ? 4 4 A, D

Invasive species (e.g. urchin) 4 4 ? 4 A

A tick mark (4) indicates a known relationship between a climate change forcing influence and a perturbation variable based on published

research. A question mark (?) indicates that a relationship may exist, but no research has been carried out to date to confirm this. Where no tick

mark is indicated, no relationship is thought to exist

Building blocks of economic resilience

123

in species distribution will also require strength in attri-

butes across all levels of the fishery, while our assessment

shows that phenological changes require resilience partic-

ularly for supply chain and market attributes.

Economic resilience attribute ratings for the rock

lobster fishery

The fishery is perceived to have a low level of resilience for

three of the four business-level resilience attributes. The

first, profitability, is a key determinant of economic resil-

ience (Rose 2004; Rose and Liao 2005). The combined

effect of prices received and operating cost incurred

determine profitability. Prices transmit signals about a

changing environment (and fish abundance) and thus

require flexibility to allow system adaptation. In many wild

fisheries, fisher profitability is tightly linked to changes in

operating or variable costs, mostly comprising labour, fuel,

and lease quota costs. Rising fuel prices and the health and

safety implications of reducing labour costs make fishers

vulnerable. The increasing number of fishers who rely on

leasing quota will be less profitable during periods of

declining abundance or catch rates, rendering a high pro-

portion of lease fishers less resilient. Businesses with low-

profit margins have a reduced ability to diversify their

operations or to engage in other income-earning activities

(van Putten et al. 2011) and are not well placed to absorb

either slow or sudden increases in operating costs. Thus,

we scored attribute 1 (profitability) as low (Table 2).

The Tasmanian lobster fishery is single species, and

fishers generally derive a large proportion of their income

from this ‘luxury product’ (Smit et al. 2001). Businesses

that produce a mix of products are likely to be more

resilient than those that are more specialised (Chandrapa-

van et al. 2009; Gardner and Ziegler 2010). Moreover,

businesses that rely on producing luxury or specialised

goods, such as lobster, and which have limited opportuni-

ties for value adding and price differentiation, are vulner-

able to economic fluctuations (Kalikoski et al. 2010). We

thus rated resilience attribute 2 (product mix) as low.

An adequate return on invested capital is required for

asset owners to absorb short- and longer-term changes

(Parry 2007). The price of quota units and thus market

capitalisation is a direct measure of wealth in the fishery

(Glaeser et al. 1995; Gottlieb and Fogarty 2003). The

economic return to quota unit ownership in the fishery has

averaged around 9 percent over the past 5 years (Anderson

and Anderson 2010). Investors comprise a growing own-

ership group in this fishery and are responsible for sup-

plying the growing lease quota market (Gardner and

Ziegler 2010). Climate change may negatively affect

market capitalisation of quota units, and thereby the wealth

of asset owners, through its effect on expected future

resource productivity and profitability and perception of

increased uncertainty, and risk. Based on past experience,

where the market mechanism has accurately and ade-

quately reflected returns on capital, a continuation of this

pattern into the medium-term future is expected to increase

resilience for the longer term. Even though high uncer-

tainty and risk are expected, the resilience of current

returns on capital (attribute 3) is therefore considered high

in Table 2.

Asset owners and fishers who have the capacity to

borrow (van Putten et al. 2011) and access credit so as to

manage climate variability will be better able to adapt

(Badjeck et al. 2009). Tighter loan to value ratios, an

Table 2 Summary of economic

resilience assessment showing

mapping between resilience

attributes and climate change

effects (abundance, distribution,

and phenology), and resilience

attribute strength

White high resilience, black low

resilience, grey neutral

Level Category Resilience attribute

Abu

ndan

ce

Dis

trib

utio

n

Phe

nolo

gy

Res

ilien

ce a

ttr.

st

reng

th

i) Business (Micro)

Fishers 1) Profitability 2) Product mix

Asset owners and fishers

3) Return on capital 4) Access to capital

ii) Sectoral (Meso)

Supply chains and market

5) Diversification 6) Information flow 7) Sectoral climate change plan

Fleet 8) Input flexibility 9) Infrastructure provision

iii) Governance (Macro)

Management organisations & institution

10) Property rights 11) Co-management 12) Resource sharing

I. E. van Putten et al.

123

increase in required yield, and reduced demand for quota

units negatively impact on asset owners in the fishery.

Currently financial institutions are reluctant to provide

credit to fishers who do not already own quota, but are

wishing to purchase quota. Quota is currently either traded

in small quantities as part of investment portfolios or as

larger quantities to large processors or investors who often

lease this quota out. The difficulties (especially younger)

fishers experience accessing credit accounts for the low

resilience score of attribute 4 (access to capital).

Tasmanian rock lobster producers have little opportunity

to influence the price of their product, selling around 80

percent of catch into the competitive Asian market (Graf-

ton 2010). Heavy reliance on a single market, high

exchange rate exposure, and the premium product status of

Tasmanian rock lobster all contribute to high potential

price risk. It is well known that the effects of unpredictable

global events can be reduced by market diversification

(Hurn and McDonald 1997) and domestic markets may

contribute to the well-being and socio-ecological resilience

of local fishing communities (Richards 2006). As lobster

producers have not diversified their markets and are

exposed to changes in and potentially closure of their

largest market, the resilience rating for attribute 5 (diver-

sification) is considered low.

Economic resilience at the sectoral level is also under-

pinned by well-functioning markets, where information is

easily accessible and pricing mechanisms are efficient

(Allison et al. 2009). Economic vulnerability is heightened

in situations where producers are ‘price takers’ (Rose 2007)

and hence, lack market power. Opaque distribution pro-

cesses and a lack of market intelligence will further

entrench the vulnerability of firms that sell their product in

markets in which they lack market power (Kalikoski et al.

2010). Limited and poor-quality information about the

physical flow of the product (Richards 2006), supply chain

transparency and associated business processes reduces

economic resilience for this fishery (attribute 6).

The existence of a sectoral-level climate change strate-

gic planning process will increase the preparedness of

managers, fishers, processors, and even consumers through

the identification of adaptation pathways and barriers

(Griffiths and Pauley 2002). While managers and

researchers have engaged with rock lobster fishers for cli-

mate change communication and adaptation planning,

processors, freight forwarders, airlines, and end buyers

have to date not been involved. The resilience for attribute

7 (sectoral climate change plan) is therefore estimated to be

low.

At the fleet level, economic resilience is linked to the

ability to adapt to environmental changes by redeploying

capital assets, gear, and labour (Richards 2006). Flexi-

bility in the use and application of fishing gear and of

human capital in the fishery is an indicator against which

benchmark responsiveness changes (Grafton 2010). The

high specificity of the type of fishing gear used in the rock

lobster fishery limits the scope for adaptation through

target species switching. However, the level of investment

in such gear is modest, and even though it may pose a

barrier to change and reduce flexibility, it is not consid-

ered high. There was some discussion amongst the expert

team about the relevance of this resilience attribute for the

rock lobster fishery resulting in the attribute being rated

neutral.

Inadequate budget allocations to build and maintain

infrastructure, ineffective planning for sectoral needs, and a

lack of coordination where multiple jurisdictions and/or

departments are involved (Pitcher and Ainsworth 2010) can

all weaken economic resilience. Increasing pressure on

local government budgets may affect economic resilience

in the future. The Tasmanian rock lobster fishery pays for

infrastructure through levies and is heavily reliant on this

collectively provided infrastructure (attribute 9) such as

wharfs and landings, with over 60 percent of catch being

landed at 2 ports. Even though current infrastructure pro-

vision is adequate and the attribute is therefore rated high,

the ability of local governments to effectively plan for

sectoral infrastructure needs with predicted changes in

lobster distribution is largely untested. Even though the

expert team considered ‘static’ resilience, the ‘dynamic’

nature of all attributes was particularly illustrated by

infrastructure needs and development.

Although there is evidence of some social drawbacks

(Tobey et al. 2010), many argue that the use of individual

harvesting rights improves returns from fishery resources

(Ostrom and Hess 2007) and that the establishment of

property rights regimes is crucial to maintain resilience

(Grafton et al. 2000). An absence of clearly defined prop-

erty rights can lead to overfishing and the collapse of

fisheries (Badjeck et al. 2009). The existence of a well-

defined property rights system, based on ITQs, and sup-

ported by an array of input, access and output controls with

specifically targeted objectives, has resulted in improved

efficiency in the rock lobster fishery (Townsend 2010) and

is reflected in an increase in the value of the fishery. The

resilience of attribute 10 (property rights) for this fishery,

where access rights and responsibilities are well estab-

lished, is thus considered high.

Co-management arrangements and effective consulta-

tive processes are often associated with good fishery out-

comes in terms of biology, economics (Hamon et al. 2009),

and increased resilience (Jentoft 1989; Adger et al.2005;

Sutinen and Johnston 2003; Townsend 2010; Olsson et al.

2004; Gelcich et al. 2010). Governance of the Tasmanian

rock lobster fishery incorporates a form of participatory co-

management. Recent downward adjustments of the rock

Building blocks of economic resilience

123

lobster TAC suggests that fishers have a high level of

understanding of the implications of maintaining the TAC

at its previous high level for both biological sustainability

and economic returns. The resilience of attribute 11 (co-

management) is estimated to be high mainly due to the

high level of fisher awareness of the connection between

sustainable catch levels and economic performance of the

fishery, and their participation in the decision-making

process.

Fish stocks are common-pool resources, and compe-

tition for access may create tension between user groups

(Badjeck et al. 2009). Formal resource-sharing arrange-

ments between commercial and recreational fishers exist

in legislation in the rock lobster fishery. Nevertheless,

tensions remain, fuelled by perceptions that responsibility

for maintaining resource security (through fleet restruc-

tures and reductions in the TAC) is borne dispropor-

tionately by the commercial sector and that ability to

control recreational fishing effort is limited. Anticipated

increases in recreational fishing demand reinforce con-

cern that recent reductions in the commercial sector

catch may be offset by an expanding recreational sector

(Dolsak and Ostrom 2004). There was some discussion

between expert team members about the score for this

attribute as resource-sharing arrangements are officially

prescribed, which suggests predictability and thus high

resilience. Other members indicated that tensions have

not abated, and the issue has remained on the agenda

nevertheless. The latter reasoning prevailed, and a low

score for the resilience of attribute 12 (resource sharing)

is estimated.

In summary, for the Tasmanian rock lobster fishery,

there is perceived low resilience in economic attributes of

fishers (1 and 2) and supply chains, and markets (5–7).

Aside from the resource-sharing issue (12), there is high

resilience at the governance level. Most attributes are

susceptible to pressure from more than one identified cli-

mate change effects.

Conclusion

Adaptation planning in marine fisheries must be informed

by the systematic evaluation of the resilience of the bio-

physical and human components of the embedded socio-

ecological system. Understanding the resilience of the

economic sub-system of the fishery is central to this, but

requires knowledge of the nature and extent of climate

forcing and perturbations to which the system is exposed.

The need to develop an understanding of economic resil-

ience of a fishery within the context of a socio-ecological

system suggests the need for research teams that encom-

pass a broad range of disciplinary knowledge (Revill and

Williams Undated) and for an assessment framework to

link and integrate this knowledge.

In this paper, we showcase a framework which can be

used to assess economic resilience attributes of a socio-

ecological fishery system in the context of climate change.

The framework is particularly valuable where little quan-

titative data exists or where a first-pass assessment is

required. Sectoral assessments can be carried out following

the six steps developed in this study:

1. Identify a case study;

2. Evaluate general effects of climate change and sum-

marise these in a small set of physical variables;

3. Link physical variables to a set of biological attributes

pertaining to the case study and develop a biophysical

model (Table 1);

4. Build a qualitative socio-economic model for the case

study containing a set of variables relevant to resilience;

5. Determine variables that will appear in both models

through which climate change effects are transmitted

(Abundance, Distribution, Phenology—Table 2);

6. Use a ‘bottom-up’ approach incorporating wide disci-

plinary expertise to operationalise the assessment of

economic resilience within the socio-ecological system

(‘‘Methodology’’).

A complex pattern of links between the climate change

forcing influences and biophysical perturbation variables

and the way in which the effects challenged economic

resilience in the fishery was identified. For instance, seven

of the eight predicted biological perturbations will affect

regional rock lobster abundance which will, in turn, have

implications for ten of the twelve economic resilience

attributes. Phenological changes will primarily affect eco-

nomic resilience along the supply chain and markets.

Changes in puerulus settlement, habitat availability, and

predator interactions will drive distributional changes in

rock lobsters. Coping with changes in species distribution

will require resilience across all levels of the fishery as

changes in fishing costs impact fisher profitability and

quota values and may pose challenges to the fleet in terms

of input flexibility and infrastructure.

Our findings provide strong direction for the develop-

ment of an adaptation plan that embeds actions and prior-

ities that map to biophysical and human conditions in the

fishery and account for linkages between them. Our results

suggest seven attributes of the economic sub-system that

currently significantly weaken the resilience of the rock

lobster fishery to climate change. Importantly, three of

these are at the business level. Key weaknesses in the

fishery are the increasing reliance of fishers on lease quota,

strong consumer preference for certain product character-

istics, and the potentially negative effect of lower returns

on quota, and increased uncertainty of asset owners. At the

I. E. van Putten et al.

123

sectoral level, the lack of transparency along the supply

chain is a serious issue for economic resilience.

Pressures on public infrastructure and the lack of

engagement with stakeholders along the supply chain in

sectoral planning were all identified as potential threats to

sectoral resilience. Resource sharing between commercial

and recreational sectors was also identified as a risk to the

ability of the fishery to adapt to climate change, thus threat-

ening governance-level resilience. However, the presence of

ITQs and a strong tradition of participatory co-management

were seen as providing a solid foundation upon which to

address climate change.

We added significantly to the strength of the Tasmanian

rock lobster fishery economic resilience assessment by draw-

ing on the knowledge and experience of disciplinary specialists

in climate modelling, ecology, fisheries biology, management,

governance, economics, and sociology. A collaborative, team-

based approach to construct our characterisation of the linked

socio-ecological system provided a platform for building

interdisciplinary capacity. Furthermore, the research process

that lies behind our economic resilience assessment has

assisted in highlighting critical data and knowledge gaps across

the entire social–ecological fishery system.

Our assessment focussed only on the resilience of the

economic component of the human sub-system. The ability

of the fishing sector to cope with climate change will

depend on a broader set of resilience attributes of the

human sub-system than those explored here. Strengths in

economic dimensions are, for instance, strongly correlated

with the strength of networks, social capital, and social

development (Beder 2011; Christie 2011). Incorporating a

broader set of economic attributes and extending the

assessment to encompass the social dimensions of the

fishery would beneficially extend the framework. More-

over, we acknowledge that there are multiple non-climate

drivers that may amplify or dampen climate change effects.

This is a dimension not explored in this study. The

assessment reported here could also be enriched by indi-

cating the relative strength of various biophysical and

ecological perturbations and climate change effects and,

importantly, by incorporating measures of uncertainty into

all domains and levels of the assessment. The framework

developed in this current study will help other environ-

mentally exposed sectors to take the first step in a climate

change economic resilience assessment for a socio-eco-

logical system and help identify empirical research needs.

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