1

BASIC APPROACH TO CLIMATE MONITORING PRODUCTS

AND

CLIMATE MONITORING PRODUCTS IN WMO RA VI

Mesut DEMIRCAN

Geodesy and Photogrametry Engineer Turkish State Meteorological Service Agrometeorology and Climatological Observation Department Climate and Climate Change Division e-mail: mdemircan@dmi.gov.tr

A. The Climate for Whose:

Climate products, has different meanings for the users from every sector. For this reason, each user community tends to a different product. For example, scientists interested in such climate products which consist of climate variability from past to present, oscillation range and the extreme conditions, comparison of past, present and the future climate conditions. In this context, products; which shows oscillation and changes in climate, comparing with today's climate and long term normal as monthly and annual assessment in local and global scale with the standard time periods and what is the climate and climatic parameters from the beginning of the world, are used in scientific studies.

Public and sectorial user community show more interest in another class of climate products such as seasonal and monthly forecasts and the secondary climate products such as cooling and heating degree days, heat index and drought and so on and they use these products for planning their works. For example, ‘What will happen’ is very important than ‘What happened’ for the energy sector to plan future energy use and agricultural sector to plan stages of agricultural production. However, sectors such as insurance especially interest in records of extreme weather events when they occurred. And also long term climate data are demanded by sectorial user while planning and building industrial plants, solar and wind energy farms, dams, airports and so on. This issue can be seen also in recommendations of Fifteenth session of the Commission for Agricultural Meteorology (CAgM) “the Commission recommended the implementation of tools and services aimed at multiple stakeholders and for assisting with risk management. Tools and services should address long-term (strategic), seasonal (tactical) and short-term (operational) forecasting and the distinct differences between these services. Service delivery should assume a basic minimum access to ICT and should build up from the minimum in a progressive manner (paragraph 4.27 WMO-No. 1062)”.

Prediction products of global and regional climate models are used mostly by scientists and decision-makers, governments, intergovernmental and international structures for one or more decadal planning (fig. 1).

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B.2 Climate Products Features:

While analyzing of a climate parameter; must be evaluated together with the normal period, the normal value, deviation of the normal value, the lowest and the highest value. For example, while analyzing temperatures of a month or a year, it can be seen normal trend in temperature but also it can consist of extreme cold or heat at same time. If we produce only temperature normal product we do not make a true assessment for temperature. Nevertheless, that appears in recent years, a month can be seen arid after heavy rains which fall down in one or two days with above normal. In today's general findings, while temperature and precipitation do not show an excessive increase in their normal, they show an increase in their extreme events (fig. 4).

Figure4. Increase in average temperature, temperature variance and together (http://hot-topic.co.nz/when-the-rain-comes/)

C. Climate Products Training and Tools:

Training of climate services personnel, it has got great importance for national and global climate observations and climate monitoring products. In this regard, WMO Regional Training Centers (WMO RTC) can be used to provide training for climate service of NHMSs. Through this training, climate monitoring products can gain a standard format in all NHMSs. In this process, WMO must take an active role both training of RTC trainer, supplying of training document to RTC and providing financial support to trainees in developing or least developed countries (fig.6).

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D. Recommendations for Climate Products:

1 - National and global assessments must be done with comparing standard normal, and must be consisted extreme values since the beginning of the observation .

2 – To be used products and analysis by national and global users, presentation should be made with at least one UN official language as well as the national language. The second language should be preferably in English.

3 -It must be developed a common language between among climate services and users for climate monitoring products. CMPs must be promoted according to requirements of users such as mentioned in CAgM’s report “As for regional climate change and variability impacts, the Commission acknowledged the need to standardize and adopt climate impact assessments at a regional level in order to identify common issues and find common solutions and comparable results e.g., impact of high temperatures on emergence and growth cereal crops(paragraph 4.74 WMO-No. 1062)”.

4 - Monthly and yearly analysis should be made containing at least temperature, rainfall and extreme events with extreme values. Essential climate variables which are recommended by WMO may also be useful to the entire analysis.

5 - Climate products must be supported by secondary products such as climatic indices, heating and cooling degree days, heat index and drought.

6 - Monthly and annual climate monitoring products and reports must be shared immediately with the Regional Climate Centers (RCC).

7 - Monthly and seasonal climate forecasts should be done by climate service or RCC products can be used directly or with increasing the resolution of products. RCC and developed prediction centers must be take active role to support national climate services in their region and to help them to improve national climate forecast products.

8 - Global and regional climate models must be operated by RCC leadership and must be shared with the member countries. BIM, the member countries should assist efforts to increase the resolution for their own regions.

9 - Climate monitoring products must be serviced in digital map formats such as raster, netcdf or shape formats as well as picture format to users. So users can use easily in their own works.

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Source:

Demircan, M., Alan, I., Sensoy, S., Increasing resolution of temperature maps by using geographic information systems (GIS) and topography information,5th Atmospheric Science Symposium, 27-29 April 2011, Istanbul Technical University, Istanbul – Turkey

Robert J. H., Susan E. C., Juan L. P., Peter G. J. And Andy J., Very High Resolution Interpolated Climate Surfaces For Global Land Areas, International Journal of Climatology, Int. J. Climatol. 25: 1965–1978 (2005)

Abridged Final Report with resolutions and recommendations (WMO-No. 1062), Fifteenth session of the Commission for Agricultural Meteorology (CAgM), 15 to 21 July 2010, Belo Horizonte, Brazil