ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE AND GLOBAL RISK MANAGEMENT(SEMINAR WORK, BENSON IDAHOSA UNIVERSITY)

CHAPTER ONE

INTRODUCTION

BACKGROUND OF THE STUDY

Artificial intelligence (AI) is a field of study based on

the premise that intelligent thought can be regarded as a

form of computation one that can be formalized and

ultimately mechanized To achieve this however two major

issues need to be addressed The first issue is knowledge

representation and the second is knowledge manipulation

Within the intersection of these two issues lies mechanized

intelligence The extension of application domains for

robotics from factories to human environments is growing

due to the elderly-dominated scenario of most industrialized

countries the desire of automatizing common daily tasks

and the lack or high cost of local human expertise Safety

and dependability are the keys to a successful introduction

of robots into human environments Robots for physical

assistance to humans should reduce fatigue and stress

increase human capabilities in terms of force speed and

precision and improve in general the quality of life on

the other hand the human can bring experience global

knowledge and understanding for a correct execution of

tasks Only dependable robot architectures can be accepted

for supporting ldquohuman-in-the-looprdquo conditions and human-

robot teams Application domains asking for human

augmentation and substitution by robot include everyday

houses and offices but also unmanned warfare operations

1

mainly in USA Moreover teleassistance and the use of

computers and devices for remote medical care pave the way

to the future use of robots in domestic environments

Researchers worldwide are studying the social factors

related to the introduction of robots in human environments

and often their attention is focused on the cognitive

interaction with machines

Since it is impossible to model every action in an

unstructured anthropic environment the ldquointelligent

connection of perception with actionrdquo of robots implies the

presence of autonomous behavior which is interesting per se

and needed to solve real problems However this can result

in dangerous situations for humans co-existing in the robot

operational domain When considering the current mechanical

structure of robots available on the market it is clear how

physical issues are crucial since ldquonaturalrdquo or unexpected

behavior of people during interaction with robots can result

in very severe injuries While robots should make

ldquoindependent decisionsrdquo their designers must consider

physical social and ethical implications of such autonomy

In order to spread the presence of robots in every-day life

Personal Robots just like Personal Computers safety and

dependability issues must be solved first Today computers

are no more perceived as strange machines while current

robots are still heavy and unsafe However it must be

pointed out that safety standards for pHRI are still not

well defined in the scientific community Also efficient

2

communication systems are crucial to have ldquowearable robotsrdquo

analogous to ldquowearablerdquo PCs One crucial capability of a

robot for pHRI is the generation of supplementary forces to

overcome human physical limits In anthropic domains a

robot may substitute the complex infrastructure needed for

ldquointelligent environmentsrdquo or telesurveillance instead of

equipping the environment with many sensors and devices a

single robot could behave both as a sensor and an actuator

able to navigate through different rooms sense the

environment and perform the requested task Right now a

sort of Descartes ldquodualityrdquo leads to accepting a dichotomy

the ldquobrainrdquo of robotic systems is usually studied by

computer scientists and neuroscientists whereas the study

of mechanisms and their control is assigned to cybernetics

electronic and mechanical engineers Cognitive and physical

interaction however are not independent physical

interaction can help in setting rules for cognitive

evaluations of the environment during interaction tasks

while cognitive aspects may improve the physical interaction

by setting suitable control interaction parameters As a

simple example haptics is used to ldquounderstandrdquo the

characteristics of an environment (soft or rigid) while

cognitive-based inference rules can be considered for

compliance control of manipulators physically interacting

with humans (if the person is a child then the compliance

should be high) Therefore an improved analysis of the

problems related to the physical interaction with robots

3

becomes necessary This topic must be addressed considering

together the design of mechanism sensors actuators and

control architecture in the special perspective for the

interaction with humans

The progress in human development is becoming

increasingly dependent on the surrounding natural

environment and may be restricted by its future

deterioration The increasing population urbanisation and

industrialisation which our planet has faced this century

have forced society to consider whether human beings are

changing the very conditions essential to life on Earth

Risk management has long been associated with the use of

market insurance to protect individuals and companies from

various losses associated with accidents (Harrington and

Niehaus 2003) In 1982 Crockford wrote ldquoOperational

convenience continues to dictate that pure and speculative

risks should be handled by different functions within a

company even though theory may argue for them being managed

as one For practical purposes therefore the emphasis of

risk management continues to be on pure risksrdquo In this

remark speculative risks were more related to financial

risks than to the current definition of speculative risks

New forms of pure risk management emerged during the mid-

1950s as alternatives to market insurance when different

types of insurance coverage became very costly and

incomplete Several business risks were costly or impossible

to insure During the 1960s contingent planning activities

4

were developed and various risk prevention or self-

protection activities and self- insurance instruments

against some losses were put in place Protection activities

and coverage for work-related illnesses and accidents also

arose at companies during this period The use of

derivatives as instruments to manage insurable and

uninsurable risk began in the 1970s and developed very

quickly during the 1980s1 It was also in the 1980s that

companies began to consider financial management or

portfolio management Financial risk management has become

complementary to pure risk management for many companies

Financial institutions

including banks and insurance companies intensified their

market risk and credit risk

management activities during the 1980s Operational risk and

liquidity risk management emerged in the 1990s

In software development process risk management

concerns all aspects of the program life cycle phases as

they relate to each other from initiation to disposal

There are basic risks that are generic to almost all

software projects In reality many IT projects are very

similar at a high strategic level They differ in people

involved and exact events An effective risk management

process requires a commitment on the part of the project

manager the project team and the contractor to be

successful The project team and management should establish

a risk management process that includes not only risk

5

planning but also risk identification risk analysis risk

mitigation planning risk mitigation plan implementation

and risk tracking to be integrated and continuously applied

throughout the whole program

11 AIM AND OBJECTIVE OF THE STUDY

The aim and objectives of this study is to show the

advantages and disadvantages of using artificial

intelligence mechine in critical decision making like life

support machine critical safety machine police robot

deteronating bomb This include

Increasing the awareness of using intelligence

system(robot) in place of humans in risk management

To make risk management team to depend on human robot

as their alternative of managing

Security of life and property

To aid more accuracy and efficiency in the of robot

carrying out dangerous whereby human lives are not

endanger

12 SIGNIFICANT OF THE STUDY

With the ever increasing advancement in software and system

development in the field of computer science the undeniable

fact that artificial intelligence has brought about new and

better evolution in areas of life With an insightful view

of artificial intelligence in global risk management it is6

certain that artificial intelligence has potentially reduce

the losses that is associated with risk and hereby providing

means which they can be managed Risk can not be fully

manage without expert system Artificial intelligence and

global risk management is aimed at making machine or system

that can act in human place to reduce lost of lives and

properties

13 SCOPE OF THE STUDY

This research covers several concept of artificial

intelligence and risk management such as expert system

risk management process and knowledge acquition Function

of artificial intelligence in risk management and control

Finally deals with benefit of using an expert system over

human expert

14 DEFINITION OF TERMS

RISK MANAGEMENT is the continuing process to identify

analyze evaluate and treat loss exposures and monitor risk

control and finacial resources to mitigate the adverse

effects of loss It can also be defined as the

identification assessment and prioritization of risks

followed by coordinated and economical application of

resources to minimize monitor and control the probability

7

or impact of unfortunate events to the realization of

opportunities

KNOWLEDGE ACQUISITION is the process used to define the

rules and ontologies required for a knowledge-based system

HEURISTICS it refers to experience-based techniques for

problem solving learning and discovery that fid a solution

which is not guaranteed to be optmal but good enough for a

given set of goals

8

CHAPTER TWO

LITERATURE REVIEW

The term artificial intelligence was first coined by John

McCarthy in 1956 when he held the first academic conference

on the subject But the journey to understand if machines

can truly think began much before that In Vannevar Bushrsquos

seminal work As We May Think [Bush45] he proposed a system

which amplifies peoplersquos own knowledge and understanding

Five years later Alan Turing wrote a paper on the notion of

machines being able to simulate human beings and the ability

to do intelligent things such as play Chess

The study of artificial intelligence has a long

history dating back to the work of British mathematician

Charles Babbage (1791ndash1871) who developed a special purpose

Difference Engine for mechanically computing the values of

certain polynomial functions Similar work was also done by

German mathematician Gottfried Wilhem von Leibniz (1646ndash

1716) who introduced the first system of formal logic and

constructed machines for automating calculation George

Boole Ada Byron King Countess of Lovelace Gottlob Frege

and Alfred Tarski have all significantly contributed to the

advancement of the field of artificial intelligence In this

section Clearly the development of robots was the

essential rst step in artificial intelligence Althoughfi

robot technology was primarily developed in the mid and late

20th century it is important to note that the notion of

robot-like behavior and its implications for humans have

9

been around for centuries in religion mythology

philosophy and ction The word ldquorobotrdquo originates fromfi

the Czechoslovakian word robota which means work ldquoRobotrdquo

appears to have rst been used in Karel Chapekrsquos 1920rsquosfi

play Rossumrsquos Universal Robots though this was by no means

the earliest example of a human-like machine Indeed

Leonardo da Vinci sketched a mechanical man around 1495

which has been evaluated for feasibility in modern times

Pre-dating da Vincirsquos humanoid robot are automata and

mechanical creatures from ancient Egypt Greece and China

The Iliad refers to golden maids that behave like real

people The idea of golem an ldquoarti cial being of Hebrewfi

folklore endowed with liferdquo has been around for centuries

and was discussed by Wiener in one of his books Ancient

Chinese legends and compilations mention robot-like

creations such as the story from the West Zhou Dynasty

(1066BCndash771BC) that describes how the craftsman Yanshi

presented a humanoid The creation looked and moved so much

like a human that when it winked at the concubines it was

necessary to dismantle it to prove that it was an arti cialfi

creation Similar robotic devices such as a wooden ox and

oating horse were believed to have been invented by thefl

Chi- nese strategist Zhuge Liang and a famous Chinese

carpenter was reported to have created a woodenbamboo

magpie that could stay aloft for up to three days More

recently robotic-like automata including Vaucansonrsquos duck

have been created Mechanical-like birds were present in the

10

1933 poem Byzantium by W B Yeats and robots have had a

large presence in science ction literature most notablyfi

Azimovrsquos works Indeed Asimovrsquos Laws of Robotics appear to

be the rst designer guidelines for HRI Early robotfi

implementations were remotely operated devices with no or

minimal autonomy In 1898 Nicola Tesla demon- strated a

radio-controlled boat which he described as incorporating

ldquoa borrowed mindrdquo In fact Tesla controlled the boat

remotely His invention which he generalized to many

different types of vehicles was described in patent

613809 ldquoMethod and Apparatus for Controlling Mechanism of

Moving Vessels In 2006 the European Land-Robot Trial

(ELROB) was created to ldquoprovide an overview of the European

state-of-the-art in the eld of [Unmanned Groundfi

Vehicles]rdquo Such systems frequently included robust user

interfaces intended for eld conditions in challengingfi

environments such as those faced in military and rstfi

responder domains Another big in uence in the emergence offl

HRI has been compeitions The two with the greatest impact

have been (a) the AAAI Robotics Competition and Exhibition

and (b) the Robocup Search and Rescue competition The Sixth

AAAI Robot Competition in 1997 had the rst competitionfi

speci cally designed for HRI research called ldquoHorsfi

drsquoOeuvres Anyonerdquo The goal of the competition was for a

robot to serve snacks to attendees of the conference during

the conference recep- tion This event was repeated in 1998

Starting in 1999 a new grand challenge event was

11

introduced For this competition a teamrsquos robot had to be

dropped off at the front door of the conference venue and

through interaction with people nd its way to thefi

registration desk register for the conference and then

nd its way at the correct time to a place where it was tofi

give a presentation This task was designed to be hard

enough to take many years to accomplish helping to drive

research In recent years this conference held several

general human-interaction events In some cases an

application domain has helped to draw the eld togetherfi

Three very in uential areas are robot-assisted search andfl

rescue assistive robots and space exploration Literature

from each of these domains is addressed further in a

subsequent section Robot-assisted search and rescue has

been a domain in which the robotics eld has workedfi

directly with the end users which in this case consists of

specially trained rescue personnel The typical search and

rescue situation involves using a small robot to enter into

a potentially dangerous rubble pile to search for victims

of a building col- lapse The robots are typically equipped

with a video camera and possibly chemical and temperature

sensors and may sometimes be equipped with a manipulator

with which they can alter the environment

The study of risk management began after World War II



various losses associated with accidents Other forms of

12

risk management alternatives to market insurance surfaced

during the 1950s when market insurance was perceived as very

costly and incomplete for protection against pure risk The

use of derivatives as risk management instruments arose

during the 1970s and expanded rapidly during the 1980s as

companies intensified their financial risk management

International risk regulation began in the 1980s and

financial firms developed internal risk management models

and capital calculation formulas to hedge against

unanticipated risks and reduce regulatory capital Several

sources (Crockford 1982 Harrington and Niehaus 2003

Williams and Heins 1995) date the origin of modern risk

management to 1955-1964 Snider (1956) observed that there

were no books on risk management at the time and no

universities offered courses in the subject The first two

academic books were published by Mehr and Hedges (1963) and

Williams and Hems (1964) Their content covered pure risk

management which excluded corporate financial risk In

parallel engineers developed technological risk management

models Operational risk partly covers technological losses

today operational risk has to be managed by firms and is

regulated for banks and insurance companies Engineers also

consider the political risk of projects Risk management has

long been associated with the use of market insurance to

protect individuals and companies from various losses

associated with accidents (Harrington and Niehaus 2003) In

1982 Crockford wrote ldquoOperational convenience continues to

13

dictate that pure and speculative risks should be handled by

different functions within a company even though theory may

argue for them being managed as one For practical purposes

therefore the emphasis of risk management continues to be

on pure risksrdquo In this remark speculative risks were more

related to financial risks than to the current definition of

speculative risks


1950s as alternatives to

market insurance when different types of insurance coverage

became very costly and incomplete

Financial institutions developed internal risk management

models and capital calculation formulas to protect

themselves from unanticipated risks and reduce regulatory

capital At the same time governance of risk management

became essential integrated risk management was introduced

and the chief risk manager (CRO) position was created In

the wake of various scandals and bankruptcies resulting from

poor risk management the Sarbanes-Oxley regulation was

introduced in the United States in 2002 stipulating

governance rules for companies Stock exchanges including

the NYSE (New York Stock Exchange) in 2002 (Blanchard and

Dionne 2004) also added risk management governance rules

for listed companies However all these regulations rules

and risk management methods did not suffice to prevent the

financial crisis that began in 2007 It is not necessarily

the regulation of risks and governance rules that were14

inefficient but rather their application and enforcement

It is well Before the 1970s derivatives were rarely used to

cover financial products They were mainly limited to

agricultural products known that managers in various

markets regularly skirt the regulation and rules However

it seems that deviant actions had become much more common in

the years preceding the financial crisis a trend the

regulatory authorities did not anticipate notice or

evidently reprimand

Risk management is a relatively recent corporate

function Historical milestones are helpful to illustrate

its evolution Modern risk management started after 1955

Since the early 1970s the concept of financial risk

management evolved considerably Notably risk management

has become less limited to market insurance coverage which

is now considered a competing protection tool that

complements several other risk management activities After

World War II large companies with diversified portfolios of

physical assets began to develop self-insurance against

risks which they covered as effectively as insurers for

many small risks Self-insurance covers the financial

consequences of an adverse event or losses from an accident

(Erlich and Becker 1972 Dionne and Eeckhoudt 1985) A

simple self-insurance activity involves creating a fairly

liquid reserve of funds to cover losses resulting from an

accident or a negative market fluctuation Risk mitigation

now frequently used to reduce the financial consequences of

15

natural catastrophes is a form of self-insuranceSelf-

protection activities have also become very important This

type of activity affects the probabilities of losses or

costs before they arise It can also affect the conditional

distribution of losses ex ante Accident prevention is the

most natural form of self-protection Precaution is a form

of self-protection applied to suspected but undefined events

for which the probabilities and financial consequences are

unknown A pandemic is one such event (Courbage et al

2013) All protection and prevention activities are part of

risk management Insurersrsquo traditional role was seriously

questioned in the United States in the 1980s particularly

during the liability insurance crisis characterized by

exorbitant premiums and partial risk coverage In that

decade alternative forms of protection from various risks

emerged such as captives (company subsidiaries that insure

various risks and reinsure the largest ones) risk retention

groups (groups of companies in an industry or region that

pool together to protect themselves from common risks) and

finite insurance (distribution of risks over time for one

unit of exposure to the risk rather than between units of

exposure) The concept of risk management in the financial

sector was revolutionized in the 1970s when financial risk

management became a priority for many companies including

banks insurers and non-financial enterprises exposed to

various price fluctuations such as risk related to interest

rates stock market returns exchange rates and the prices

16

of raw materials or commodities This revolution was sparked

by the major increase in the price fluctuations mentioned

above In particular fixed currency parities disappeared

and prices of commodities became much more volatile The

risks of natural catastrophe also magnified considerably

Historically to protect themselves from these financial

risks companies used balance sheets or real activities

(liquidity reserves) To increase flexibility or to reduce

the cost of traditional hedging activities derivatives were

then increasingly used

Derivatives are contracts that protect the holder from

certain risks Their value depends on the value and

volatility of the underlier or of the assets or value

indices on which the contracts are based The best-known

derivatives are forward contracts options futures and

swaps Derivatives were first viewed as forms of insurance

to protect individuals and companies from major fluctuations

in risks However speculation quickly arose in various

markets creating other risks that are increasingly

difficult to control or manage In addition the

proliferation of derivatives made it very difficult to

assess companiesrsquo global risks (specifically aggregating and

identifying functional forms of distribution of prices or

returns) At the same time the definition of risk

management became more general Risk management decisions

are now financial decisions that must be evaluated based on

their effect on firm or portfolio value rather than on how

17

well they cover certain risks This change in the definition

applies particularly to large public corporations which

ironically may be the companies that least need risk

protection (apart from speculation risk) because they are

able to naturally diversify much more easily than small

companies In particular shareholders can diversify their

portfolios on financial markets at a much lower cost than

the companies whose shares they hold

Risk management became a corporate affair in the late 1990s

The major orientation

decisions in firmsrsquo management policy (and monitoring) are

now made by the board of directors Most often the audit

committee monitors these decisions although some large

financial institutions have put risk management committees

in place The position of Chief Risk Officer or CRO

emerged

18

CHAPTER THREE

30 DESCRIPTION AND ANALYSIS OF ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE AND

RISK MANAGEMENT

Artificial intelligence in risk management is one of the way

to completely eradicate insurgency that could lead to the

loss of lives and property Managing risk with artificial

intelligent system or an expert system pro-active measure

put in place to aid human security in all human endeavor it

include risk analysis risk assessement and risk management

Risk analysis methods deal with the evaluation of risks

risks quantification means that probabilities can be

associated to expected values or results however its

effectiveness depends on the previous steps in the risk

management process (RMP) because those steps are the

foundation of the whole process The planning process for

implementing risk management is a crucial phase it provides

the opportunity to the project and risk managers to explain

and describe in details what risk management is about why

it is important to have a risk team what is expected from

them and what are the deliverables Consequently risk

reporting and communication play a critical role under the

risk analysis process it is also a great opportunity to

explore with the team any doubts or questions about the risk

19

management process and also a chance for convincing the

project stakeholders the executives and the rest of the

team about the benefits of implementing a serious

quantitative risk analysis Risk analysis is the most

important milestone for performing an effective quantitative

assessment All these processes define the requirements to

be attended on the search of inputs and the definition of

stochastic models and their functions consequently the

utilization of quantitative methods like Monte Carlo

Simulation shall become a requirement for risk analysis

Checklists are mostly used for risk identification they are

necessary and useful for the identification but not

sufficient for the analysis The following risk analysis

methods dispose adequacy and opportunities for quantitative

risk analysis

Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) (Widely used by Risk

analysis practitioners)

Artificial Neuronal Networks (ANNs)

Artificial Intelligence (AI) is a field of study based on


form of computation-one that can be formalized and





intelligence Artificial intelligence is also a science of

making computers do things that require intelligence when20

done by human For a system(robot) to execute at human

level the knowledge has to be inplanted into it by the

knowledge engineer to enable the system perform the said

task Expert base system is programming computers to make

decision in real-life situations Expert sytem do not work

on it own but work directly on the knowledge of the expert

who built the system Expert system are capable of

performing task that require human expert There are various

expertise trained to manage risk so also are systems design

to manage in a more complex form Expert such as robot has

been design in such a way that human can operate it without

engaging in the same operation with it Eg dangerious

operation such as robot for bomb disposal robot for inter-

planetary pro robot for neuclear power station All of this

are dangerous work which can cause human hisher when doing

it Artificial intelligence has created a more sophisticated

way of managing risk through robots(expert base system)

Risk analysis can be broadly defined to include risk

assessement risk characterization risk communication risk

management and policy relating to risk in the context of

risk of concern to individuals to public and private sector

organizations regional national or global level It also

involves a process of gathering data and synthesizing

information to develop an understanding of the risk of a

perticular event

Risk assessment is the determination of quantitative and

qualitative value of risk related to a concrete situation

21

and a recognized threat Quantitative risk assessment

requires calculations of two components of risk the

magnitude of the potential loss and the probability that the

loss will occur Risk assessment consists of an objective

evaluation of risk in which assumptions and uncertainties

are clearly cosidered and presented

Expert systems are computer programs aiming to model

human expertise in one or more specific knowledge areas

They usually consist of three basic components a knowledge

database with facts and rules representing human knowledge

and experience an inference engine processing consultation

and determining how inferences are being made and an

inputoutput interface for interactions with the user

According to K S Metaxiotis expert systems can be

characterized by

1 using symbolic logic rather than only numerical

calculations

2 the processing is data-driven

3 a knowledge database containing explicit contents of

certain area of knowledge

4 the ability to interpret its conclusions in the way

that is understandable to the user

The key technological issues facing expert systems lie in

the areas of software standards and methodology knowledge

acquisition handling uncertainty and validation

31 KNOWLEDGE ACQUISITION

Knowledge acquistion is usually considered as a way to

22

discover static facts of the world and the relationships of

various events that human uses in solving real life

problems The problem-solving skills in humans oftentimes

are far more complicated and complex than what knowledge

collection can achieve For example humans learn how to

walk at an early age through practice and sometimes painful

experience This kind of trial and error know-how is not

accessible in the form of facts and rules If humans are

asked to articulate a set of rules based on their know- how

more often than not it will not accurately reflect their

skill

Some expert systems in areas such as linear and

nonlinear control pattern recognition financial systems

and data analysis incorporate fuzzy logic to cope with

imprecise rules and inputs The fuzzy logic in such systems

usually uses preset labels to categorize real-time inputs

and utilizes fuzzy inference to calculate numerical

conclusions from imprecise rules

VALIDATION OF EXPERT SYSTEM

The quality of expert systems is often measured by comparing

the results to those derived from human experts However

there are no clear specifications in validation or

verification techniques How to adequately evaluate an

expert system remains an open question although attempts

have been made to utilize pre-established test cases

developed by independent experts to verify the performance

and reliability of the systems

23

Managerial and Organizational Challenges The success in

technical or economic sense of an expert system does not

guarantee a high-level of adoption rate or long-term use in

business T Grandon Gill surveyed expert systems built

during the early and mid 1980s Of all the systems surveyed

the key results were as follows

1 about one-third were being actively used and maintained

2 about one-sixth were still available to users but were

not being maintained

3 about one-half had been abandoned

Maintenance cost could be high because expert systems are

complicated and might require extensive knowledge of both

application domain and development tools in people who

develop and maintain the system

311 EXPERT SYSTEMS MAKE MISTAKES

Legal concerns over ldquoexpert system makes mistakesrdquo could

drive investors and developers away As mentioned

previously there is little consensus on what testing is

necessary to evaluate an expert systemrsquos validity

reliability and performance There are no legal authorities

to certify and validate systems The potential legal and

financial liabilities if such systems should go wrong

especially in life-critical systems such as medical

diagnosis and air-traffic control could be crippling and

astronomical

24

KNOWLEDGE REPRESENTATION

It has long been recognized that the language and models

used to represent reality profoundly impact ones

understanding of reality itself When humans think about a

particular system they form a mental model of that system

and then proceed to discover truths about the system These

truths lead to the ability to make predictions or general

statements about the system However when a model does not

sufficiently match the actual problem the discovery of

truths and the ability to make predictions becomes

exceedingly difficult

A classic example of this is the pre-Copernican model in

which the Sun and planets revolved around the Earth In such

a model it was prohibitively difficult to predict the

position of planets However in the Copernican revolution

this Earth-centric model was replaced with a model where the

Earth and other planets revolved around the Sun

25

Through artificial intelligence engineers and computer scientists are capable of

creating machines that perform dangerous tasks in place of humans Here a

police robot handles a live bomb

KNOWLEDGE MANIPULATION

Many problems that humans are confronted with are not fully

understood This partial understanding is reflected in the

fact that a rigid algorithmic solution a routine and

predetermined number of computational steps cannot be

applied Rather the concept of search is used to solve such

problems When search is used to explore the entire solution

space it is said to be exhaustive

312 HEURISTICS

Heuristics is a major area of AI that concerns itself with

how to limit effectively the exploration of a search space

Chess is a classic example where humans routinely employ

sophisticated heuristics in a search space A chess player

will typically search through a small number of possible

moves before selecting a move to play Not every possible

move and countermove sequence is explored Only reasonable

sequences are examined A large part of the intelligence of

chess players resides in the heuristics they employ A

heuristic-based search results from the application of

domain or problem-specific knowledge to a universal search

function The success of heuristics has led to focusing the

application of general AI techniques to specific problem26

domains This has led to the development of expert systems

capable of sophisticated reasoning in narrowly defined

domains within fields such as medicine mathematics

chemistry robotics and aviation

32 GLOBAL RISK MANAGEMENT

In general there are risk which cannot be manage by human

expert except by an expert system because it may result to

the lost of human expert so it is preferable to use an

expert system Losing a machine to risk is better than

losing human expert This is the motive behind the

innovation of expert system to make machine work in place

of humans to avoid lost of life avoid causing disability to

the human expert body

Risk is a situation involving exposure to danger harm orloss Itrsquos a probability or threat of damage injury

liability loss or any other negative occurrence that is

caused by external or internal vulnerabilities and that may

be avoided through preemptive action

Risk Management is the continuing process to identifyanalyze evaluate and treat loss exposures and monitor risk






27


opportunities

Providing insights to support informed decision making is

the primary objective of Risk Management In practice Risk

Management concentrates on performing bottom-up detailed

continuous assessment of risk and opportunity It focuses

on addressing the day-to-day operational risks that a

program faces Risk Management follows a two-stage

repeatable and iterative process of assessment (ie the

identification estimation and evaluation of the risks

confronting a program) and management (ie the planning

for monitoring of and controlling of the means to

eliminate or reduce the likelihood or consequences of the

risks discovered) It is performed continually over the

life of a program from initiation to retirement

28

321 RISK MANAGEMENT PROCESS

Identify potential losses

Measure and analyze the loss exposures

Select the appropriate combination of techniques fortreating the loss exposures

Implement and monitor the risk management program

Risk control refers to techniques that reduce thefrequency and severity of losses

Methods of risk control include

ndash Avoidance

ndash Loss prevention

ndash Loss reduction

29

Avoidance means a certain loss exposure is never

acquired or an existing loss exposure is abandoned

The chance of loss is reduced to zero

It is not always possible or practical to avoid all

losses

Loss prevention refers to measures that reduce the

frequency of a particular loss

bull eg installing safety features on hazardous products

Loss reduction refers to measures that reduce the

severity of a loss after is occurs

bull eg installing an automatic sprinkler system

30

1 Risk identification In this sub process the main task

is to discover all the possible risks that might have an

impact on the projectacutes objectives After the

identification the corresponding probabilities and

impacts must be quantified For this sub process

methods as ldquoCheck listsrdquo ldquoBrainstormingrdquo or ldquoPonderingrdquo

provide an important aid

31

2 Risk Analysis The second sub process assists in the

quantification of the probabilities and impact of each

factor (risks) for this several methods like Var at

Risk Delphi Monte Carlo Simulation etc can be used

Risk analysis can be qualitative only but it should be

quantitative For example with the assistance of

stochastic models a quantitative risk analysis can be

performed

3 Risk evaluation amp response After the quantification and

determination of the probabilities and impacts the

management of the possible results takes place

Typically the response strategies are avoidance

transfer mitigate etc As well risk owners are

assigned to each risk to help to implement the

strategies and also to assist the project manager in

providing the status of the risk

4 Risk verification amp monitoring Subsequently to the

definition of the needed actions to handle the risks a

supervision and control system has to be developed aimed

to identify deviations of the defined goals (settled in

the previous process)

5 Risk planning Risk planning is about defining and

designing the strategy for implementing the whole life

cycle of risk management for one project as a pilot

program for many projects or for implementing a formal

process with the organization Risk planning quantifies

the resources needed defines the roles and32

responsibilities of each member of the risk team

designs the risk team and establishes the formality of

risk management with a company directive or

memorandum Risk planning is the critical path of the

risk management system because it outlines those tasks

and processes that are crucial to be deployed in order

to be successful

6 Risk controlling Risk controlling involves all the risk

metrics necessary to track any change in the risk

behavior towards the project objective The change in

the risk can be attributed to an impact into the cost

time quality or scope of the project Risk controlling

is an opportunity to evaluate the effectiveness of the

risk strategies and also provides a basis for the

decision-making in order to control the overall target

of the project It is also an important tool for the

further development of the Risk Management Process for

its communication procedures and the Risk planning

322 THE MOST COMMONSERIOUS SOFTWARE RISKS

There are numerous reasons as to why formal risk management

is difficult to implement effectively These include the

sheer number of risk factors that have been identified in

the literature For example Capers Jones assessed several

hundred organizations and observed over 100 risk factors (of

which 60 he discusses in detail in [Jones 1994]) He

observed however that few projects have more than 15

33

active risk factors at any one time but many projects have

approximately six simultaneous risk factors

Another reason for the relatively low implementation of

formal risk management methods in practice are according to

[Kontio 1998] the fact that risk is an abstract or fuzzy

concept for which users lack the necessary tools to more

accurately define risk for a deeper analysis In addition

many risk management methods may be based on risk

quantification Users may not have the ability to provide

accurate estimates for probability and lossopportunity

projections required for a reliable risk analysis Table-

based approaches can sometimes be too biased or too coarse

for proper risk prioritization Risks may also have

different implications for different stakeholders (or

conversely be perceived differently by different

stakeholders) Existing risk management methods may not

provide support for dealing with these differences Risks

may also affect a project in more than one way For

example most risk management approaches focus on cost

schedule or quality risks but there may be combinations of

risks or other characteristics such as future required

maintenance company reputation or potential

liabilitylitigation that should be considered important in

influencing the decision-making process Finally many

current risk management techniques may be perceived as too

costly or too complex to use

34

The Risk Management Map Contains Five Evolutionary Stages Of

Risk Management Capability defined as

1 Problem Stage Describes circumstances when risk

identification is not seen as positive Characterized

by lack of communication which causes a subsequent lack

of coordination Crisis management is used to address

existing problems

2 Mitigation Stage Details a shift from crisis

management to risk management People become aware of

risks but do not systematically confront them There

is uncertainty as to how to communicate risks

3 Prevention Stage Discusses the shift of risk

management as solely a managerrsquos activity to risk

management as a team activity This is a transitional

stage from avoidance of risk symptoms to identification

and elimination of root cause of risk characterized by

team and sometimes customer involvement For risk

management to succeed it must occur at each level

within an organization This stage represents a

turning point from a reactive to a more proactive

approach to risk management

4 Anticipation Stage Describes the shift from subjective

to quantitative risk management through the use of

measures to anticipate predictable risks that is

characterized by the use of metrics to anticipate

failures and predict future events This stage

35

involves the ability to learn from adapt to and

anticipate change representing a completely proactive

approach to risk management Quantified analysis used

to determine resolution costbenefit for the project

5 Opportunity Stage This represents a positive vision of

risk management that is used to innovate and shape the

future Risks are perceived as an opportunity to save

money and do better than planned Risk like quality

is everyonersquos responsibility A continuous process of

identifying communicating and resolving risks in an

open and non-threatening environment is used

323 ADVANTAGES AND DISADVANTAGES OF RISK MANAGEMENT

ADVANTAGES RISK MANAGEMENT

1 Save on loss costs

2 Save on expenses

3 Encourage loss prevention

4 Increase cash flow

DISADVANTAGES OF RISK MANAGEENT

1 Possible higher losses

2 Possible higher expenses

3 Possible higher taxes

36

324 BENEFITS OF RISK MANAGEMENT

1 Pre-loss and post-loss objectives are attainable

2 A risk management program can reduce a firmrsquos cost of

risk

3 The cost of risk includes premiums paid retained

losses outside risk management services financial

guarantees internal administrative costs taxes

fees and other expenses

4 Reduction in pure loss exposures allows a firm to

enact an enterprise risk management program to treat

both pure and speculative loss exposures Society

benefits because both direct and indirect losses are

reduced

325 THE ROLE OF ROBOTICS IN RISK MANAGEMENT

Robots play an undinable function in risk management most

essentially in critical risk management this include the

following

1 Robots save workers from performing dangerous tasks

2 They can work in hazardous conditions such as poor

lighting toxic chemicals or tight spaces

3 They are capable of lifting heavy loads without

injury or tiring

4 Robots increase workers safety by preventing accidents

since humans are not performing risky jobs

37

5 Workcells provide safety features separating the

worker from harms way

33 ADVANTAGES AND DISADVANTAGES OF ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE

ADVANTAGES OF ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE

Artificial Intelligence (AI) applications are utilized to

simulate human intelligence for either solving a problem or

making a decision

1 AI provides the advantages of permanency reliability

and cost-effectiveness while also addressing

uncertainty and speed in either solving a problem or

reaching a decision

2 AI has been applied in such diverse realms as

engineering economics linguistics law manufacturing

and medicine and for a variety of modeling

prediction and decision support and control

applications One of the most promising applications of

AI has been its rigorous use in the Internet such as in

search engines

3 In an organization in which human intelligence is tied

to a particular person or a group of people AI

applications can provide permanency that prevents the

knowledge from being lost when the individual or the

38

group members retire or are no longer available to the

organization

4 AI enables the development of a learning capability

which can be utilized to further prolong the life and

relevance of the application

5 Learning from real-world success and failure is an

enabling feature of AI tools known as ldquoreinforcement

learningrdquo and is advantageous in that it increases the

reliability of the tools with their increased use in

applications

6 AI can support faster solutions to complex problems

DISADVANTAGES OF ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE

1 The life of the knowledge encapsulated in an AI

framework could be as long as the relevance of the

problems and decision scenarios remain unchanged

2 The broad application of any tool only occurs when its

reliability has been established

3 AI methods are suitable when a direct mathematical

relationship cannot be established between cause and

effect

4 AI machine are cost power consuming

5 Limitation associated with the use of AI methods to

solve a given problem stems from the fact that for

several AI methods there is currently little guidance

on how to decide upon the best values to use for a

39

given methodrsquos tuning parameters With respect to

automation in general

6 Challenge related to the issue of potential liability

34 APPLICATION AREAS OF ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE IN RISK

MANAGEMENT

Artificial is one of the most vital course in computer

science because it cover all sector in real-life

application this sector include the following

SECTORS FUNCTIONALITYUSESBanking

sector

The modern technology combines the latest

advancement of artificial intelligence

numerical mathematics statistics heuristic

approaches It allows offering new promising

approaches to risks estimation These

approaches give positive results even with

small amounts of data Eg credit risk

operational risk market riskSecurity Artificial intelligence are usually use in

critical situations like bomb handlingEngineering

and computer

scientist

Through artificial intelligence engineers

and computer scientists are capable of

creating machines(robot) that perform

dangerous tasks in place of humansAnd many

other sectors

Medicine mathematics chemistry robotics

and aviation

40

CHAPTER FOUR

41 SUMMARY

The field of artificial intelligence is truly a fascinating

one Like many other new technologies Artificial

Intelligence is changing our lives every day It is quite

possible that the near future will bring intelligent

machines to make life more convenient and comfortable for

all of us Although some may argue otherwise there is no

need to fear artificial intelligence Like all other

machines Artificial Intelligence machines do what human

programmers tell them to do There is however a need to

understand Artificial Intelligence for it is through

understanding that we can make the AI technology most

beneficial Also making Artificial Intelligence machine

like robot perform dangerous work that might claim human

life when done by human will definitely reduce the loss of

human expertise and also guarantee a faster and accurate

work in risk management41

42 CONCLUSION

There are clearly some good in use of robot and some bad in

use of robot Advantages such as improving qualities of

life increase interaction oppotunities make humans daily

life easier performing tasks that are impossible for human

Autonomous robots would appear to offer some real bene tsfi

in the management of the risk of disaster events However

the very real social and technological barriers to the

acceptance of robotic assistance at disaster sites need to

be overcome Risk and uncertainty define all types of

projects including the technical ones Therefore it is

important to clearly establish the project objectives and to

identify sources of risk It is very important to use the

right tools and techniques in order to conduct the risk

assessment

43 RECOMMENDATION

Base on this work it is recommended that all risk management

agencies should abduct using robots to manage risk rather

than engaging their selves in dangerous task to guarantee

security in carrying out their operations It is recommended

that software and systems for risk management should be

relatively low in price of acquiring it

44 REFERENCES42

J Williams C George (1966) Adaptation and Natural

Selection A Critique of Some Current Evolutionary

ThoughtPrinceton Science Library Princeton NJ Princeton

University Press

H Weisberg W Robert (1986)

CreativityGeniusandOtherMythsSeries of Books in

Psychology New York W H Freeman

Mueller Robert A and L Rex (1988) Symbolic Computing with

LISP and Prolog New York Wiley and Sons

Luger F George and William A Stubblefield (1993)

Artificial Intelligence Structures and Strategies for Complex Problem Solving

Redwood City CA BenjaminCummings Publishing Company

B Kompare(1994) ldquoQualitative modelling of environmental

processesrdquo in Environmental Systems vol II Computer

Techniques in Environmental Studies V edited by P

Zannetti Com- putational Mechanics Publications

N Reeves and C Nass(1996) ldquoThe Media Equation How People

Treat Computers Television and New Media Like Real People

and Placesrdquo Cambridge University Press Cambridge

JD Englehart (1997) ldquoBayesian-risk analysis for

sustainable process

designrdquoJournalofEnvironmentalEngineering vol123

OVaris(1997)

ldquoBayesiandecisionanalysisforenvironmentalandre source

managementrdquo Environmental Modelling and Software vol 12

43

R Paggio G Agre C Dichev D Dochev G Umann and T

Rozman (1998) ldquoTRACE A development platform for environmen-

tal decision support systemsrdquo in Workshop Binding Environ-

mental Sciences and Arti cial Intelligence edited by Ufi

Corteacutes and M S`anchez-Marre`

R Sanguumlesa and P Burrell (2000) ldquoApplication of Bayesian

network learning methods to wastewater treatment plantsrdquo

Applied In- telligence vol 13

E Rogers(2000) ldquoIntroduction to Human-Computer Interaction

(HCI)rdquo RASIFRR Summer School on ldquoHuman-Robot Interactionrdquo

Retrieved from

httpwwwcaskthseras-ifrr-ss04materialrogers-hci-

intro

C Bartneck (2002) An embodied emotional character for the

ambient intelligent home Unpublished PhD thesis

Eindhoven University of Technology Eindhoven

C Breazeal (2003) Designing Sociable Robots Cambridge

MIT Press

Fong T Nourbakhsh I amp Dautenhahn K (2003) A survery

of socially interactive robots Robotics and Autonomous

Systems

F Gemperle C DiSalvo J Forlizzi amp W Yonkers (2003)

The Hug A new form for communication Paper presented at

the Design- ing the User Experience New York

H Hashimoto(2005) ldquoIntelligent interactive space -

Integration of IT and Roboticsrdquo IEEE Workshop on Advanced

44

Robotics and its Social Impacts Retrieved from

httpwwwrobocasanetworkshop2005indexphppage=program

M Taddei (2007) Leonardo da Vincis robots Milano Italy

Leonardo3

httpwwwmariotaddeinetMario_Taddei_exLibris-Leonardo-

yearshtm

Gartner Research (2012) Improve Business Decision Making

With Risk-adjusted Value Management Retrieved from

httpwwwgartnercomtechnologyresearchsecurity-risk-

managementrisk- adjusted-value-management

B Moshinsky (2012) Applying Actuarial Techniques in

Operational Risk Modeling ERM Symposium Retrieved from

httpwwwbloombergcomnews2012-09-27big-eu-banks-faced-

256-billion- basel-iii-capital-gap-last-yearhtml

45

mainly in USA Moreover teleassistance and the use of

computers and devices for remote medical care pave the way

to the future use of robots in domestic environments

Researchers worldwide are studying the social factors

related to the introduction of robots in human environments

and often their attention is focused on the cognitive

interaction with machines

Since it is impossible to model every action in an

unstructured anthropic environment the ldquointelligent

connection of perception with actionrdquo of robots implies the

presence of autonomous behavior which is interesting per se

and needed to solve real problems However this can result

in dangerous situations for humans co-existing in the robot

operational domain When considering the current mechanical

structure of robots available on the market it is clear how

physical issues are crucial since ldquonaturalrdquo or unexpected

behavior of people during interaction with robots can result

in very severe injuries While robots should make

ldquoindependent decisionsrdquo their designers must consider

physical social and ethical implications of such autonomy

In order to spread the presence of robots in every-day life

Personal Robots just like Personal Computers safety and

dependability issues must be solved first Today computers

are no more perceived as strange machines while current

robots are still heavy and unsafe However it must be

pointed out that safety standards for pHRI are still not

well defined in the scientific community Also efficient

2




























3




























4




























5


















endanger













properties







human expert









7


opportunities






given set of goals

8

CHAPTER TWO

LITERATURE REVIEW


























9




























10




























11




























12




























13







speculative risks





























evidently reprimand



















15




























16




























17
















emerged

18

CHAPTER THREE


RISK MANAGEMENT





















19















risk analysis





































perticular event



21















characterized by


calculations











22











skill

















23

























astronomical

24


















25












312 HEURISTICS





































27


opportunities














28








ndash Avoidance



29





losses







30








31








performed


























to be successful




















33



























34







existing problems




















35















2 Save on expenses







36




risk









reduced




following





injury or tiring



37







making a decision




reaching a decision







search engines





38


organization








applications










effect






39





MANAGEMENT





sector










and computer

scientist





other sectors


and aviation

40

CHAPTER FOUR

41 SUMMARY

















42 CONCLUSION














assessment

43 RECOMMENDATION







44 REFERENCES42




University Press

















sustainable process


OVaris(1997)



43











Retrieved from


intro





MIT Press



Systems






44




Leonardo3


yearshtm









45




























3




























4




























5


















endanger













properties







human expert









7


opportunities






given set of goals

8

CHAPTER TWO

LITERATURE REVIEW


























9




























10




























11




























12




























13







speculative risks





























evidently reprimand



















15




























16




























17
















emerged

18

CHAPTER THREE


RISK MANAGEMENT





















19















risk analysis





































perticular event



21















characterized by


calculations











22











skill

















23

























astronomical

24


















25












312 HEURISTICS





































27


opportunities














28








ndash Avoidance



29





losses







30








31








performed


























to be successful




















33



























34







existing problems




















35















2 Save on expenses







36




risk









reduced




following





injury or tiring



37







making a decision




reaching a decision







search engines





38


organization








applications










effect






39





MANAGEMENT





sector










and computer

scientist





other sectors


and aviation

40

CHAPTER FOUR

41 SUMMARY

















42 CONCLUSION














assessment

43 RECOMMENDATION







44 REFERENCES42




University Press

















sustainable process


OVaris(1997)



43











Retrieved from


intro





MIT Press



Systems






44




Leonardo3


yearshtm









45




























4




























5


















endanger













properties







human expert









7


opportunities






given set of goals

8

CHAPTER TWO

LITERATURE REVIEW


























9




























10




























11




























12




























13







speculative risks





























evidently reprimand



















15




























16




























17
















emerged

18

CHAPTER THREE


RISK MANAGEMENT





















19















risk analysis





































perticular event



21















characterized by


calculations











22











skill

















23

























astronomical

24


















25












312 HEURISTICS





































27


opportunities














28








ndash Avoidance



29





losses







30








31








performed


























to be successful




















33



























34







existing problems




















35















2 Save on expenses







36




risk









reduced




following





injury or tiring



37







making a decision




reaching a decision







search engines





38


organization








applications










effect






39





MANAGEMENT





sector










and computer

scientist





other sectors


and aviation

40

CHAPTER FOUR

41 SUMMARY

















42 CONCLUSION














assessment

43 RECOMMENDATION







44 REFERENCES42




University Press

















sustainable process


OVaris(1997)



43











Retrieved from


intro





MIT Press



Systems






44




Leonardo3


yearshtm









45




























5


















endanger













properties







human expert









7


opportunities






given set of goals

8

CHAPTER TWO

LITERATURE REVIEW


























9




























10




























11




























12




























13







speculative risks





























evidently reprimand



















15




























16




























17
















emerged

18

CHAPTER THREE


RISK MANAGEMENT





















19















risk analysis





































perticular event



21















characterized by


calculations











22











skill

















23

























astronomical

24


















25












312 HEURISTICS





































27


opportunities














28








ndash Avoidance



29





losses







30








31








performed


























to be successful




















33



























34







existing problems




















35















2 Save on expenses







36




risk









reduced




following





injury or tiring



37







making a decision




reaching a decision







search engines





38


organization








applications










effect






39





MANAGEMENT





sector










and computer

scientist





other sectors


and aviation

40

CHAPTER FOUR

41 SUMMARY

















42 CONCLUSION














assessment

43 RECOMMENDATION







44 REFERENCES42




University Press

















sustainable process


OVaris(1997)



43











Retrieved from


intro





MIT Press



Systems






44




Leonardo3


yearshtm









45


















endanger













properties







human expert









7


opportunities






given set of goals

8

CHAPTER TWO

LITERATURE REVIEW


























9




























10




























11




























12




























13







speculative risks





























evidently reprimand



















15




























16




























17
















emerged

18

CHAPTER THREE


RISK MANAGEMENT





















19















risk analysis





































perticular event



21















characterized by


calculations











22











skill

















23

























astronomical

24


















25












312 HEURISTICS





































27


opportunities














28








ndash Avoidance



29





losses







30








31








performed


























to be successful




















33



























34







existing problems




















35















2 Save on expenses







36




risk









reduced




following





injury or tiring



37







making a decision




reaching a decision







search engines





38


organization








applications










effect






39





MANAGEMENT





sector










and computer

scientist





other sectors


and aviation

40

CHAPTER FOUR

41 SUMMARY

















42 CONCLUSION














assessment

43 RECOMMENDATION







44 REFERENCES42




University Press

















sustainable process


OVaris(1997)



43











Retrieved from


intro





MIT Press



Systems






44




Leonardo3


yearshtm









45







properties







human expert









7


opportunities






given set of goals

8

CHAPTER TWO

LITERATURE REVIEW


























9




























10




























11




























12




























13







speculative risks





























evidently reprimand



















15




























16




























17
















emerged

18

CHAPTER THREE


RISK MANAGEMENT





















19















risk analysis





































perticular event



21















characterized by


calculations











22











skill

















23

























astronomical

24


















25












312 HEURISTICS





































27


opportunities














28








ndash Avoidance



29





losses







30








31








performed


























to be successful




















33



























34







existing problems




















35















2 Save on expenses







36




risk









reduced




following





injury or tiring



37







making a decision




reaching a decision







search engines





38


organization








applications










effect






39





MANAGEMENT





sector










and computer

scientist





other sectors


and aviation

40

CHAPTER FOUR

41 SUMMARY

















42 CONCLUSION














assessment

43 RECOMMENDATION







44 REFERENCES42




University Press

















sustainable process


OVaris(1997)



43











Retrieved from


intro





MIT Press



Systems






44




Leonardo3


yearshtm









45


opportunities






given set of goals

8

CHAPTER TWO

LITERATURE REVIEW


























9




























10




























11




























12




























13







speculative risks





























evidently reprimand



















15




























16




























17
















emerged

18

CHAPTER THREE


RISK MANAGEMENT





















19















risk analysis





































perticular event



21















characterized by


calculations











22











skill

















23

























astronomical

24


















25












312 HEURISTICS





































27


opportunities














28








ndash Avoidance



29





losses







30








31








performed


























to be successful




















33



























34







existing problems




















35















2 Save on expenses







36




risk









reduced




following





injury or tiring



37







making a decision




reaching a decision







search engines





38


organization








applications










effect






39





MANAGEMENT





sector










and computer

scientist





other sectors


and aviation

40

CHAPTER FOUR

41 SUMMARY

















42 CONCLUSION














assessment

43 RECOMMENDATION







44 REFERENCES42




University Press

















sustainable process


OVaris(1997)



43











Retrieved from


intro





MIT Press



Systems






44




Leonardo3


yearshtm









45

CHAPTER TWO

LITERATURE REVIEW


























9




























10




























11




























12




























13







speculative risks





























evidently reprimand



















15




























16




























17
















emerged

18

CHAPTER THREE


RISK MANAGEMENT





















19















risk analysis





































perticular event



21















characterized by


calculations











22











skill

















23

























astronomical

24


















25












312 HEURISTICS





































27


opportunities














28








ndash Avoidance



29





losses







30








31








performed


























to be successful




















33



























34







existing problems




















35















2 Save on expenses







36




risk









reduced




following





injury or tiring



37







making a decision




reaching a decision







search engines





38


organization








applications










effect






39





MANAGEMENT





sector










and computer

scientist





other sectors


and aviation

40

CHAPTER FOUR

41 SUMMARY

















42 CONCLUSION














assessment

43 RECOMMENDATION







44 REFERENCES42




University Press

















sustainable process


OVaris(1997)



43











Retrieved from


intro





MIT Press



Systems






44




Leonardo3


yearshtm









45




























10




























11




























12




























13







speculative risks





























evidently reprimand



















15




























16




























17
















emerged

18

CHAPTER THREE


RISK MANAGEMENT





















19















risk analysis





































perticular event



21















characterized by


calculations











22











skill

















23

























astronomical

24


















25












312 HEURISTICS





































27


opportunities














28








ndash Avoidance



29





losses







30








31








performed


























to be successful




















33



























34







existing problems




















35















2 Save on expenses







36




risk









reduced




following





injury or tiring



37







making a decision




reaching a decision







search engines





38


organization








applications










effect






39





MANAGEMENT





sector










and computer

scientist





other sectors


and aviation

40

CHAPTER FOUR

41 SUMMARY

















42 CONCLUSION














assessment

43 RECOMMENDATION







44 REFERENCES42




University Press

















sustainable process


OVaris(1997)



43











Retrieved from


intro





MIT Press



Systems






44




Leonardo3


yearshtm









45




























11




























12




























13







speculative risks





























evidently reprimand



















15




























16




























17
















emerged

18

CHAPTER THREE


RISK MANAGEMENT





















19















risk analysis





































perticular event



21















characterized by


calculations











22











skill

















23

























astronomical

24


















25












312 HEURISTICS





































27


opportunities














28








ndash Avoidance



29





losses







30








31








performed


























to be successful




















33



























34







existing problems




















35















2 Save on expenses







36




risk









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37







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38


organization








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effect






39





MANAGEMENT





sector










and computer

scientist





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and aviation

40

CHAPTER FOUR

41 SUMMARY

















42 CONCLUSION














assessment

43 RECOMMENDATION







44 REFERENCES42




University Press

















sustainable process


OVaris(1997)



43











Retrieved from


intro





MIT Press



Systems






44




Leonardo3


yearshtm









45




























12




























13







speculative risks





























evidently reprimand



















15




























16




























17
















emerged

18

CHAPTER THREE


RISK MANAGEMENT





















19















risk analysis





































perticular event



21















characterized by


calculations











22











skill

















23

























astronomical

24


















25












312 HEURISTICS





































27


opportunities














28








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29





losses







30








31








performed


























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33



























34







existing problems




















35















2 Save on expenses







36




risk









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37







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38


organization








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effect






39





MANAGEMENT





sector










and computer

scientist





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40

CHAPTER FOUR

41 SUMMARY

















42 CONCLUSION














assessment

43 RECOMMENDATION







44 REFERENCES42




University Press

















sustainable process


OVaris(1997)



43











Retrieved from


intro





MIT Press



Systems






44




Leonardo3


yearshtm









45




























13







speculative risks





























evidently reprimand



















15




























16




























17
















emerged

18

CHAPTER THREE


RISK MANAGEMENT





















19















risk analysis





































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21















characterized by


calculations











22











skill

















23

























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24


















25












312 HEURISTICS





































27


opportunities














28








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29





losses







30








31








performed


























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33



























34







existing problems




















35















2 Save on expenses







36




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37







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38


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effect






39





MANAGEMENT





sector










and computer

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40

CHAPTER FOUR

41 SUMMARY

















42 CONCLUSION














assessment

43 RECOMMENDATION







44 REFERENCES42




University Press

















sustainable process


OVaris(1997)



43











Retrieved from


intro





MIT Press



Systems






44




Leonardo3


yearshtm









45







speculative risks





























evidently reprimand



















15




























16




























17
















emerged

18

CHAPTER THREE


RISK MANAGEMENT





















19















risk analysis





































perticular event



21















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calculations











22











skill

















23

























astronomical

24


















25












312 HEURISTICS





































27


opportunities














28








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29





losses







30








31








performed


























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33



























34







existing problems




















35















2 Save on expenses







36




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37







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38


organization








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39





MANAGEMENT





sector










and computer

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40

CHAPTER FOUR

41 SUMMARY

















42 CONCLUSION














assessment

43 RECOMMENDATION







44 REFERENCES42




University Press

















sustainable process


OVaris(1997)



43











Retrieved from


intro





MIT Press



Systems






44




Leonardo3


yearshtm









45









evidently reprimand



















15




























16




























17
















emerged

18

CHAPTER THREE


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19















risk analysis





































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21















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calculations











22











skill

















23

























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24


















25












312 HEURISTICS





































27


opportunities














28








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29





losses







30








31








performed


























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33



























34







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35















2 Save on expenses







36




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37







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38


organization








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effect






39





MANAGEMENT





sector










and computer

scientist





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and aviation

40

CHAPTER FOUR

41 SUMMARY

















42 CONCLUSION














assessment

43 RECOMMENDATION







44 REFERENCES42




University Press

















sustainable process


OVaris(1997)



43











Retrieved from


intro





MIT Press



Systems






44




Leonardo3


yearshtm









45




























16




























17
















emerged

18

CHAPTER THREE


RISK MANAGEMENT





















19















risk analysis





































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21















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calculations











22











skill

















23

























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24


















25












312 HEURISTICS





































27


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28








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29





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30








31








performed


























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33



























34







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35















2 Save on expenses







36




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37







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38


organization








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effect






39





MANAGEMENT





sector










and computer

scientist





other sectors


and aviation

40

CHAPTER FOUR

41 SUMMARY

















42 CONCLUSION














assessment

43 RECOMMENDATION







44 REFERENCES42




University Press

















sustainable process


OVaris(1997)



43











Retrieved from


intro





MIT Press



Systems






44




Leonardo3


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45




























17
















emerged

18

CHAPTER THREE


RISK MANAGEMENT





















19















risk analysis





































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21















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22











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23

























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24


















25












312 HEURISTICS





































27


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28








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29





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30








31








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33



























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35















2 Save on expenses







36




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37







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38


organization








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39





MANAGEMENT





sector










and computer

scientist





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and aviation

40

CHAPTER FOUR

41 SUMMARY

















42 CONCLUSION














assessment

43 RECOMMENDATION







44 REFERENCES42




University Press

















sustainable process


OVaris(1997)



43











Retrieved from


intro





MIT Press



Systems






44




Leonardo3


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45
















emerged

18

CHAPTER THREE


RISK MANAGEMENT





















19















risk analysis





































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22











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23

























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24


















25












312 HEURISTICS





































27


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28








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29





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30








31








performed


























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33



























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35















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36




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37







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38


organization








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effect






39





MANAGEMENT





sector










and computer

scientist





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40

CHAPTER FOUR

41 SUMMARY

















42 CONCLUSION














assessment

43 RECOMMENDATION







44 REFERENCES42




University Press

















sustainable process


OVaris(1997)



43











Retrieved from


intro





MIT Press



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44




Leonardo3


yearshtm









45

CHAPTER THREE


RISK MANAGEMENT





















19















risk analysis





































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21















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22











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23

























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24


















25












312 HEURISTICS





































27


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28








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29





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30








31








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33



























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35















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36




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37







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38


organization








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39





MANAGEMENT





sector










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40

CHAPTER FOUR

41 SUMMARY

















42 CONCLUSION














assessment

43 RECOMMENDATION







44 REFERENCES42




University Press

















sustainable process


OVaris(1997)



43











Retrieved from


intro





MIT Press



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44




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45















risk analysis





































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21















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22











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24


















25












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27


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28








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29





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30








31








performed


























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33



























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35















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36




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37







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38


organization








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39





MANAGEMENT





sector










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40

CHAPTER FOUR

41 SUMMARY

















42 CONCLUSION














assessment

43 RECOMMENDATION







44 REFERENCES42




University Press

















sustainable process


OVaris(1997)



43











Retrieved from


intro





MIT Press



Systems






44




Leonardo3


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45

























perticular event



21















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22











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23

























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24


















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27


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28








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29





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30








31








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33



























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35















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36




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38


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39





MANAGEMENT





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40

CHAPTER FOUR

41 SUMMARY

















42 CONCLUSION














assessment

43 RECOMMENDATION







44 REFERENCES42




University Press

















sustainable process


OVaris(1997)



43











Retrieved from


intro





MIT Press



Systems






44




Leonardo3


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45















characterized by


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22











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23

























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24


















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27


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28








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29





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30








31








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33



























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35















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36




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37







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38


organization








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39





MANAGEMENT





sector










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40

CHAPTER FOUR

41 SUMMARY

















42 CONCLUSION














assessment

43 RECOMMENDATION







44 REFERENCES42




University Press

















sustainable process


OVaris(1997)



43











Retrieved from


intro





MIT Press



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44




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45











skill

















23

























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24


















25












312 HEURISTICS





































27


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28








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29





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30








31








performed


























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33



























34







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35















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36




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37







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38


organization








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effect






39





MANAGEMENT





sector










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and aviation

40

CHAPTER FOUR

41 SUMMARY

















42 CONCLUSION














assessment

43 RECOMMENDATION







44 REFERENCES42




University Press

















sustainable process


OVaris(1997)



43











Retrieved from


intro





MIT Press



Systems






44




Leonardo3


yearshtm









45

























astronomical

24


















25












312 HEURISTICS





































27


opportunities














28








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29





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30








31








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33



























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35















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36




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37







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38


organization








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effect






39





MANAGEMENT





sector










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and aviation

40

CHAPTER FOUR

41 SUMMARY

















42 CONCLUSION














assessment

43 RECOMMENDATION







44 REFERENCES42




University Press

















sustainable process


OVaris(1997)



43











Retrieved from


intro





MIT Press



Systems






44




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45


















25












312 HEURISTICS





































27


opportunities














28








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29





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30








31








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33



























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35















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36




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37







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38


organization








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effect






39





MANAGEMENT





sector










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40

CHAPTER FOUR

41 SUMMARY

















42 CONCLUSION














assessment

43 RECOMMENDATION







44 REFERENCES42




University Press

















sustainable process


OVaris(1997)



43











Retrieved from


intro





MIT Press



Systems






44




Leonardo3


yearshtm









45












312 HEURISTICS





































27


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28








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29





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30








31








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33



























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35















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36




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37







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38


organization








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effect






39





MANAGEMENT





sector










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and aviation

40

CHAPTER FOUR

41 SUMMARY

















42 CONCLUSION














assessment

43 RECOMMENDATION







44 REFERENCES42




University Press

















sustainable process


OVaris(1997)



43











Retrieved from


intro





MIT Press



Systems






44




Leonardo3


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45
























27


opportunities














28








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29





losses







30








31








performed


























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33



























34







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35















2 Save on expenses







36




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37







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38


organization








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effect






39





MANAGEMENT





sector










and computer

scientist





other sectors


and aviation

40

CHAPTER FOUR

41 SUMMARY

















42 CONCLUSION














assessment

43 RECOMMENDATION







44 REFERENCES42




University Press

















sustainable process


OVaris(1997)



43











Retrieved from


intro





MIT Press



Systems






44




Leonardo3


yearshtm









45


opportunities














28








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29





losses







30








31








performed


























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33



























34







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35















2 Save on expenses







36




risk









reduced




following





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37







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38


organization








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effect






39





MANAGEMENT





sector










and computer

scientist





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and aviation

40

CHAPTER FOUR

41 SUMMARY

















42 CONCLUSION














assessment

43 RECOMMENDATION







44 REFERENCES42




University Press

















sustainable process


OVaris(1997)



43











Retrieved from


intro





MIT Press



Systems






44




Leonardo3


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45








ndash Avoidance



29





losses







30








31








performed


























to be successful




















33



























34







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35















2 Save on expenses







36




risk









reduced




following





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37







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38


organization








applications










effect






39





MANAGEMENT





sector










and computer

scientist





other sectors


and aviation

40

CHAPTER FOUR

41 SUMMARY

















42 CONCLUSION














assessment

43 RECOMMENDATION







44 REFERENCES42




University Press

















sustainable process


OVaris(1997)



43











Retrieved from


intro





MIT Press



Systems






44




Leonardo3


yearshtm









45





losses







30








31








performed


























to be successful




















33



























34







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35















2 Save on expenses







36




risk









reduced




following





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37







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38


organization








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effect






39





MANAGEMENT





sector










and computer

scientist





other sectors


and aviation

40

CHAPTER FOUR

41 SUMMARY

















42 CONCLUSION














assessment

43 RECOMMENDATION







44 REFERENCES42




University Press

















sustainable process


OVaris(1997)



43











Retrieved from


intro





MIT Press



Systems






44




Leonardo3


yearshtm









45








31








performed


























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33



























34







existing problems




















35















2 Save on expenses







36




risk









reduced




following





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37







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38


organization








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effect






39





MANAGEMENT





sector










and computer

scientist





other sectors


and aviation

40

CHAPTER FOUR

41 SUMMARY

















42 CONCLUSION














assessment

43 RECOMMENDATION







44 REFERENCES42




University Press

















sustainable process


OVaris(1997)



43











Retrieved from


intro





MIT Press



Systems






44




Leonardo3


yearshtm









45








performed


























to be successful




















33



























34







existing problems




















35















2 Save on expenses







36




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reduced




following





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37







making a decision




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38


organization








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effect






39





MANAGEMENT





sector










and computer

scientist





other sectors


and aviation

40

CHAPTER FOUR

41 SUMMARY

















42 CONCLUSION














assessment

43 RECOMMENDATION







44 REFERENCES42




University Press

















sustainable process


OVaris(1997)



43











Retrieved from


intro





MIT Press



Systems






44




Leonardo3


yearshtm









45







to be successful




















33



























34







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35















2 Save on expenses







36




risk









reduced




following





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37







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38


organization








applications










effect






39





MANAGEMENT





sector










and computer

scientist





other sectors


and aviation

40

CHAPTER FOUR

41 SUMMARY

















42 CONCLUSION














assessment

43 RECOMMENDATION







44 REFERENCES42




University Press

















sustainable process


OVaris(1997)



43











Retrieved from


intro





MIT Press



Systems






44




Leonardo3


yearshtm









45



























34







existing problems




















35















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36




risk









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following





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37







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38


organization








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effect






39





MANAGEMENT





sector










and computer

scientist





other sectors


and aviation

40

CHAPTER FOUR

41 SUMMARY

















42 CONCLUSION














assessment

43 RECOMMENDATION







44 REFERENCES42




University Press

















sustainable process


OVaris(1997)



43











Retrieved from


intro





MIT Press



Systems






44




Leonardo3


yearshtm









45







existing problems




















35















2 Save on expenses







36




risk









reduced




following





injury or tiring



37







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38


organization








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effect






39





MANAGEMENT





sector










and computer

scientist





other sectors


and aviation

40

CHAPTER FOUR

41 SUMMARY

















42 CONCLUSION














assessment

43 RECOMMENDATION







44 REFERENCES42




University Press

















sustainable process


OVaris(1997)



43











Retrieved from


intro





MIT Press



Systems






44




Leonardo3


yearshtm









45















2 Save on expenses







36




risk









reduced




following





injury or tiring



37







making a decision




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38


organization








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effect






39





MANAGEMENT





sector










and computer

scientist





other sectors


and aviation

40

CHAPTER FOUR

41 SUMMARY

















42 CONCLUSION














assessment

43 RECOMMENDATION







44 REFERENCES42




University Press

















sustainable process


OVaris(1997)



43











Retrieved from


intro





MIT Press



Systems






44




Leonardo3


yearshtm









45




risk









reduced




following





injury or tiring



37







making a decision




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search engines





38


organization








applications










effect






39





MANAGEMENT





sector










and computer

scientist





other sectors


and aviation

40

CHAPTER FOUR

41 SUMMARY

















42 CONCLUSION














assessment

43 RECOMMENDATION







44 REFERENCES42




University Press

















sustainable process


OVaris(1997)



43











Retrieved from


intro





MIT Press



Systems






44




Leonardo3


yearshtm









45







making a decision




reaching a decision







search engines





38


organization








applications










effect






39





MANAGEMENT





sector










and computer

scientist





other sectors


and aviation

40

CHAPTER FOUR

41 SUMMARY

















42 CONCLUSION














assessment

43 RECOMMENDATION







44 REFERENCES42




University Press

















sustainable process


OVaris(1997)



43











Retrieved from


intro





MIT Press



Systems






44




Leonardo3


yearshtm









45


organization








applications










effect






39





MANAGEMENT





sector










and computer

scientist





other sectors


and aviation

40

CHAPTER FOUR

41 SUMMARY

















42 CONCLUSION














assessment

43 RECOMMENDATION







44 REFERENCES42




University Press

















sustainable process


OVaris(1997)



43











Retrieved from


intro





MIT Press



Systems






44




Leonardo3


yearshtm









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MANAGEMENT





sector










and computer

scientist





other sectors


and aviation

40

CHAPTER FOUR

41 SUMMARY

















42 CONCLUSION














assessment

43 RECOMMENDATION







44 REFERENCES42




University Press

















sustainable process


OVaris(1997)



43











Retrieved from


intro





MIT Press



Systems






44




Leonardo3


yearshtm









45

CHAPTER FOUR

41 SUMMARY

















42 CONCLUSION














assessment

43 RECOMMENDATION







44 REFERENCES42




University Press

















sustainable process


OVaris(1997)



43











Retrieved from


intro





MIT Press



Systems






44




Leonardo3


yearshtm









45

42 CONCLUSION














assessment

43 RECOMMENDATION







44 REFERENCES42




University Press

















sustainable process


OVaris(1997)



43











Retrieved from


intro





MIT Press



Systems






44




Leonardo3


yearshtm









45




University Press

















sustainable process


OVaris(1997)



43











Retrieved from


intro





MIT Press



Systems






44




Leonardo3


yearshtm









45











Retrieved from


intro





MIT Press



Systems






44




Leonardo3


yearshtm









45




Leonardo3


yearshtm









45

ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE AND GLOBAL RISK MANAGEMENT(SEMINAR WORK, BENSON IDAHOSA UNIVERSITY)

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