USULAN PERENCANAAN PRODUKSI DENGAN METODE …

USULAN PERENCANAAN PRODUKSI DENGAN

METODE AGGREGATE PLANNING PADA

PRODUK GREY BOARD NON LAMINATING

DI PT. PKNI

SKRIPSI

Oleh :

IMAM RAHARJO

201310215155

PROGRAM STUDI TEKNIK INDUSTRI

FAKULTAS TEKNIK

UNIVERSITAS BHAYANGKARA JAKARTA RAYA

2017

Usulan Perencanaan..., Imam, Fakultas Teknik 2018

ABSTRAK

Imam Raharjo 201310215155. Usulan Perencanaan Produksi dengan

Menggunakan Metode Aggregat Planning pada Grey Board Non Laminating

(GBNL) di PT. PKNI.

Grey Board Non Laminating adalah lembaran kertas yang digunakan oleh

konsumen untuk membuat berbagai macam produk, misalnya kalender, cover buku,

kotak makanan dan kerah baju. Pada PT. PKNI permasalahan yang berkaitan dengan

Grey Board Non Laminating adalah perusahaan kurang tepat dalam meramalkan

permintaan dan merencanakan produksi. Tujuan penelitian ini adalah 1) Menentukan

metode peramalan yang tepat diantara Moving Average, Weight Moving Average dan

Single Exponential Smoothing dalam meramalakan produk Grey Bord Non

Laminating. 2) Menentukan variasi apa yang tepat diantara Variasi Tingkat

Persediaan, Tingkat Tenaga Kerja dan Jam Kerja dalam merencanakan produksi Grey

Board Non Laminating pada periode April 2017-Maret 2018. Metode peramalan yang

dibandingkan adalah Moving Average, Weight Moving Average dan Single

Exponential Smoothing. Perencanaan produksi dengan menggunakan Metode

Aggregate Planning. Hasil temuan pengolahan data dan pembahasan diperoleh 1)

Metode peramalan yang tepat untuk meramalkan permintaan Grey Board Non

Laminating untuk periode April 2017- Maret 2018 adalah Metode Single

Exponenstial Smoothing. 2) Perencanaan produksi yang tepat untuk Grey Board Non

Laminating untuk periode April 2017- Maret 2018 adalah Variasi Tingkat Persediaan

dimana biayanya sebesar Rp 226.035.000,-/tahun yang memberikan penurunan total

biaya variasi persediaan sebesar 0.33%. Presentase perencanaan persediaan/bulan

sebesar 3.94%/bulan dari peramalan.

Kata Kunci : Peramalan, Aggregat Planning, Moving Average, Weight Moving

Average, Single exponential Smoothing


ABSTRACT

Imam Raharjo 201310215155. Proposed Production Planning Using Aggregat

Planning Method on Gray Board Non Laminating (GBNL) at PT. PKNI.

Gray Board Non Laminating is a sheet of paper used by consumers to create

a wide range of products, such as calendars, book covers, food boxes and collar. At

PT. PKNI problems related to Gray Board Non Laminating is the company is less

precise in predicting demand and planning production. The purpose of this research

is 1) Determine the correct forecasting method between Moving Average, Weight

Moving Average and Single Exponential Smoothing in predicting product of Gray

Bord Non Laminating. 2) Determine what variations are right between the Inventory

Level Variation, Labor Level and Working Hours in planning the production of Gray

Board Non Laminating in the period April 2017-March 2018. The forecasting method

compared is Moving Average, Weight Moving Average and Single Exponential

Smoothing. Planning production using Aggregate Planning Method. The findings of

data processing and discussion are obtained 1) Appropriate forecasting method to

predict the demand of Gray Board Non Laminating for April 2017-March 2018

period is Single Exponenstial Smoothing Method. 2) Appropriate production

planning for Gray Board Non Laminating for the period of April 2017 - March 2018

is Variation of Inventory Level where the cost is Rp 226.035.000, - / year giving the

total inventory cost decrease by 0.33%. Percentage of inventory planning / month of

3.94% / month of forecasting.

Keywords: Forecasting, Aggregat Planning, Moving Average, Weight Moving

Average, Single Exponential Smoothing


viii

KATA PENGANTAR

Assalamualaikum. Wr . wb

Puji Syukur kepada Allah SWT yang telah memberikan rahmat dan

karunia-Nya sehingga peneliti dapat menyelesaikan proposal skripsi yang berjudul

“USULAN PERENCANAAN PRODUKSI DENGAN METODE AGGREGATE

PLANNING PADA PRODUK GREY BOARD NON LAMINATING DI PT. PKNI ” dapat

diselesaikan. Penulisan skripsi ini dibuat untuk memenuhi salah satu syarat

kelulusan dalam strata satu di Universitas Bhayangkara Jakarta Raya.

Penulisan skripsi ini tidak lepas dari bimbingan, saran, dan bantuan baik

moral dan materil, dorongan serta keritikan dari berbagai pihak. Kesempatan ini

penulis akan menyampaikan ucapan terima kasih serta penghargaan yang setinggi-

tingginya kepada:

1. Ibu Ismaniah, S,Si.,MM., Selaku Dekan Fakultas Teknik Universitas

Bhayangkara Jakarta Raya.

2. Ibu Denny Siregar, ST., M.Sc. Selaku Ketua Program Studi Teknik

Industri Universitas Bhayangkara Jakarta Raya.

3. Ibu Helena Sitorus, ST.,MT., selaku dosen pembimbing I penulisan skripsi

Universitas Bhayangkara Jakarta Raya.

4. Bapak Ir. Zulkani Sinaga.,MT., selaku dosen pembimbing II penulisan

skripsi Universitas Bhayangkara Jakarta Raya.

5. Kepada Bapak/Ibu dosen yang telah banyak memberi dukungan dan

bantuan akademis dalam penulisan ini..

6. Bapak Dauddy Bahar manager HR&GA yang telah memberikan izin

kepada kami untuk melakukan penelitian.

7. Bapak A. Rizal selaku kepala departemen, Bapak Widodo selaku Kepala

design dan pembimbing lapangan, Ibu yani kepala PPIC dan staf

marketing, Terimakasih Atas Bimbingan selama kami melaksanakan

penelitian di PT. PKNI

8. Teman-teman Teknik Industri angkatan 2013 yang selalu memberi

semangat dalam menyelesaikan penulisan skripsi ini.


ix


x

DAFTAR ISI

Halaman

LEMBAR PERSETUJUAN .......................................................................... ii

LEMBAR PENGESAHAN ........................................................................... iii

LEMBAR PERNYATAAN ............................................................................ iv

ABSTRAK ...................................................................................................... v

ABSTRACT ..................................................................................................... vi

LEMBAR PERNYATAAN PUBLIKASI ..................................................... vii

KATA PENGANTAR ..................................................................................... viii

DAFTAR ISI ................................................................................................... x

DAFTAR TABEL ........................................................................................... xiii

DAFTAR GAMBAR ...................................................................................... xvii

BAB I PENDAHULUAN ............................................................................... 1

1.1. Latar Belakang .......................................................................................... 1

1.2. Identifikasi Masalah .................................................................................. 3

1.3. Rumusan Masalah ..................................................................................... 4

1.4. Batasan Masalah........................................................................................ 4

1.5. Tujuan Penelitian ....................................................................................... 4

1.6. Manfaat penelitian ..................................................................................... 4

1.7. Metode Penelitian...................................................................................... 5

1.8. Sitematika Penulisan ................................................................................. 5

BAB II LANDASAN TEORI ........................................................................ 7

2.1. Peramalan (forecasting) ............................................................................ 7

2.1.1. Manfaat Peramalan.......................................................................... 7

2.1.1. Ketepatan Peramalan ....................................................................... 7

2.2. Metode Time Series ................................................................................... 8

2.2.1. Pola Siklis ....................................................................................... 8

2.2.2. Pola Musiman ................................................................................. 9

2.2.3. Pola Horizontal ............................................................................... 10

2.2.4. Pola Trend ....................................................................................... 10


xi

2.3. Pergerakan Rata-Rata (moving avarage) .................................................. 10

2.4. Rata-rata Berat Bergerak (weight moving avarage) .................................. 11

2.5. Expontial Smoothing ................................................................................. 13

2.6. Tracking Signal ......................................................................................... 14

2.7. Proses Verifikasi ........................................................................................ 15

2.8. Perencanaan Aggregat ............................................................................... 17

2.8.1 Tujuan Perencanaan Aggregat ......................................................... 17

2.8.2 Biaya Perencanaan Aggregat........................................................... 18

2.9. Strategi Aggregat ....................................................................................... 18

BAB III METODOLOGI PENELITIAN .................................................... 20

3.1. Lokasi Penelitian ....................................................................................... 20

3.2 Jenis Penelitian ........................................................................................... 20

3.3 Waktu Penelitian ........................................................................................ 20

3.4. Teknik Pengumpulan Data dan Pengolahan .............................................. 20

3.4.1. Teknik Pengumpulan Data .............................................................. 20

3.4.2. Pengolahan Data ............................................................................. 21

3.5. Metode Perencanaan Produksi Aggregat .................................................. 22

3.6. Analisis ...................................................................................................... 22

3.7 Kesimpulan ................................................................................................ 23

3.8. Kerangka Berfikir...................................................................................... 24

BAB IV ANALISIS DATA DAN PEMBAHASAN ..................................... 25

4.1 Deskripsi Umum Perusahaan ..................................................................... 25

4.2 Analisis Data .............................................................................................. 25

4.3. Metode Usulan Peramalan ........................................................................ 26

4.3.1. Moving Average (MA) .................................................................... 26

4.3.2. Weight Moving Average (WMA) .................................................... 30

4.3.3. Single Exponential Smoothing (SES) .............................................. 34

4.4 Hasil Peramalan Terpilih............................................................................ 39

4.5 Verifikasi Forecast..................................................................................... 40

4.6 Tracking Signal .......................................................................................... 42

4.7 Perencanaan Aggrergat .............................................................................. 44

4.7.1 Variasi Tingkat Persediaan ......................................................... 44


xii

4.7.2 Variasi Tingkat Tenaga Kerja ..................................................... 46

4.7.3 Variasi Tingkat Penambahan Jam Kerja Karyawan.................... 49

4.7.4 Perbandingan Variasi aperencanaan Produksi ............................ 50

4.7.5 Perhitungan Biaya Perusahaan Sebelumnya ............................... 52

4.7.6 Perbandingan Biaya Perusahaan Sebelumnya dengan Usulan

Perencanaan ................................................................................. 53

BAB V PENUTUP .......................................................................................... 54

5.1. Kesimpulan ............................................................................................... 54

5.2. Saran .......................................................................................................... 54

DAFTAR PUSTAKA


xiii

DAFTAR TABEL

Halaman

Tabel 1.1 Produksi dan Permintaan ....................................................................... 2

Tabel 2.1 Perhitungan Pergerakan Rata-rata .................................................... 11

Tabel 2.2 Nilai Pembobotan ............................................................................. 12

Tabel 2.3 Perhitungan pergerakan Rata-rata .................................................... 12

Tabel 2.4 Hasil Peramalan ................................................................................ 13

Tabel 4.1 Data Permintaan Grey Board Non Laminating ................................ 26

Tabel 4.2. Hasil Perhitungan Peramalan Metode Moving Average untuk n=2... 27

Tabel 4.3 Hasil Perhitungan Peramalan Metode Moving Average untuk n = 3.... 28

Tabel 4.4 Hasil Perhitungan Peramalan Metode Moving Average untuk n = 4….. 29

Tabel 4.5 Perbandingan Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) Metode

Moving Average ............................................................................... 30

Tabel 4.6 Hasil Perhitungan Peramalan Metode Weight Moving Average

untuk n = 2 ....................................................................................... 31


untuk n = 3 ....................................................................................... 32


untuk n = 4 ...................................................................................... 33

Tabel 4.9 Perbandingan Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) Metode

Weight Moving Average .................................................................. 33

Tabel 4.10 Hasil Perhitungan Peramalan Metode Single Exponential

Smoothing untuk α =0,66 .............................................................. 36


Smoothing untuk α = 0,5 ............................................................... 37


Smoothing untuk α = 0,4 .................................................................. 38


xiv

Tabel 4.13 Perbandingan MAD (mean absolute deviation)

dari Metode Single Exponential Smoothing .................................... 38

Tabel 4.14 Perbandingan MAD (mean absolute deviation) dari Tiga

Metode ............................................................................................. 39

Tabel 4.15 Perhitungan Moving Range ............................................................ 41

Tabel 4.16 Perhitungan Tracking Signal .......................................................... 43

Tabel 4.17 Perhitungan Variasi Tingkat Persediaan ........................................ 46

Tabel 4.18 Perhitungan Variasi Tingkat Tenaga Kerja .................................... 47

Tabel 4.19 Total Hari Tenaga Kerja ................................................................ 49

Tabel 4.20 Perhitungan Penambahan Jam Kerja ............................................. 50

Tabel 4.21 Perhitungan Variasi Perencanaa Produksi ..................................... 51

Tabel 4.22 Biaya Perusahaan Sebelumnya ...................................................... 52

Tabel 4.23 Perbandingan Biaya Perusahaan dengan Usulan Perencanaan ...... 53


xvii

DAFTAR GAMBAR

Halaman

Gambar 1.1 Grafik Data Produksi dan Permintaan .......................................... 3

Gambar 2.1 Pola Siklis ..................................................................................... 9

Gambar 2.2 Pola Musiman ............................................................................... 9

Gambar 2.3 Pola Horizontal ............................................................................. 10

Gambar 2.4 Pola Trend .................................................................................... 10

Gambar 2.5 Isyarat Arah .................................................................................. 14

Gambar 2.6 Moving Range Chart .................................................................... 16

Gambar 3.1 Kerangka Berfikir ......................................................................... 24

Gambar 4.1 Diagram Perbandingan Mean Absolute Deviasi ........................... 39

Gambar 4.2 Moving Range Chart .................................................................... 44

Gambar 4.3 Tracking Signal ............................................................................ 44


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