Update Laporan: 24 APRIL 2019 · 2019. 4. 24. · Quality Control & Validasi Data Quick Count 7...

Update Laporan:

24 APRIL 2019

http://www.indikator.co.id/

http://www.indikator.co.id/

Pendahuluan

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Laporan Quick Count Pilpres dan Pileg 2019

• Pemilihan Presiden dan Pemilu Legislatif telah dilaksanakan pada 17 April 2019 oleh Komisi Pemilihan Umum (KPU).

• Indikator Politik Indonesia (Indikator) melakukan quick count dalam pemilihan tersebut.

• Apa itu quick count?

• Quick count adalah prediksi hasil Pilpres dan Pileg melalui pengamatan dan pencatatan data penghitungan suara langsung dari TPS yang dipilih secara acak.

• Quick count bukan hasil resmi KPU. Namun quick count diharapkan dapat menjadi instrumen pembanding hasil rekapitulasi suara yang akan dilakukan KPU, untuk memastikan apakah pemilu kita berjalan dengan jurdil atau tidak.

Metodologi

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• Populasi quick count adalah seluruh pemilih yang datang ke TPS dan memilih secara sah (seluruh suara sah) yang tersebar di seluruh TPS nasional (809.497 TPS).

• Sampel suara sah dipilih dengan metode metode Stratified Systematic Cluster Random Sampling.

• Prosedur pemilihan sampel:

• Stratifikasi: TPS dikelompokkan menurut wilayah dapil DPR RI dan status pedesaan-perkotaan.

• Systematic Cluster Random Sampling:

• Di masing-masing stratum (sub populasi yang merupakan irisan Dapil dan wilayah pedesaan-perkotaan), dipilih TPS secara systematic random sampling dengan jumlah proporsional.

• Seluruh suara sah di TPS terpilih menjadi sample quick count. Total dirandom 3000 TPS.

• Dari 3000 TPS yang dirandom, sebanyak 25 TPS tidak bisa dijangkau, yakni 1 TPS di Kalimantan Timur dan 24 TPS di Papua. Dengan demikian quick count final dilakukan di 2975 TPS.

• Saat laporan ini dibuat, dari 2975 TPS, data masuk untuk quick count pilpres 2974 TPS (99.97%) dengan total sampel suara sah sebanyak 565,912. Sementara data masuk untuk quick count pileg 2969 TPS (99.80%) dengan total sampel suara sah sebanyak 473,826.

• Pada tingkat kepercayaan 95%, toleransi kesalahan atau margin of error (moe) hasil Quick Count Pilpres secara nasional diperkirakan +/-0.63%, sementara moe hasil Quick Count Pileg bervariasi tergantung suara partai yang diestimasi.

Flow chart penarikan sampel

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• Estimasi perolehan suara capres atau partai dan margin of error dihitung dengan formula sebagai berikut (Cochran 1977, Kish 1965, Scheaffer at al. 1996):

• Estimasi proporsi suara paslon/partai:

• Margin of error pada confidence level 95% *:

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* KET:

• Metode quick count (qc) Indikator adalah stratified systematic cluster random sampling (SSCS), sementara standard error (SE) dalam formula moe ini adalah SE dalam metode stratified cluster random sampling (SCS), yakni populasi TPS dalam tiap stratum dipandang dalam kondisi terurut secara acak (random order).

• Dari pengalaman dan analisis qc Indikator selama ini, penerapan “systematic sampling” dalam memilih TPS pada setiap stratum dalam metode SSCS dapat menghasilkan estimasi error yang lebih kecil jika dibandingkan dengan asumsi SCS, di mana rasio antara SE pada SSCS dan SE SCS sebesar 0.85. Besaran 0.85 inilah deft dalam formula margin of error.

• Deft=0.85 ini juga telah mengakomodasi potensi bias noncoverage luar negeri (yang relatif kecil).

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LAPANGAN: Relawan mengirim data hasil rekapitulasi suara di TPS lewat aplikasi sms berbasis android.

DATA CENTER INDIKATOR: Data divalidasi dan dihitung dengan sistem qc, kemudian ditransfer ke media partners (TV, media online, dll).

MEDIA PARTNERS: Hasil Quick Count ditampilkan media partners

TPS Quick Count dipilih secara acak. Di masing-masing TPS ditugaskan satu orang relawan sebagai enumarator.

Alur Data Quick Count

Quality Control & Validasi Data Quick Count

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Quality Control:

1. Pelatihan relawan (enumerator dan spotchecker) sebelum hari H

2. Simulasi bersama sebelum hari H untuk memastikan proses quick count dapat berjalan lancar.

3. Pada hari H call center menelepon relawan untuk memastikan relawan bertugas di TPS-TPS yang telah ditentukan.

4. Relawan menggunakan aplikasi input data dengan format terstruktur.

5. Tim spotchecker di luar relawan enumerator diterjunkan di 10% TPS yang dipilih secara acak untuk memastikan relawan melakukan tugas dengan benar.

Validasi data:

1. Validasi secara otomatis oleh sistem Quick Count:

Nomor HP pengirim data terdaftar sebagai nomor HP relawan,

Validitas isi data (logic): (suara calon atau partai + suara tidak sah) <= DPT, dll.

2. Call center menelepon relawan untuk memverifikasi data.

3. Lembar catat hasil penghitungan suara di setiap TPS Quick Count ditandatangani petugas/ketua KPPS bersangkutan.

Distribusi TPS Quick Count menurut Provinsi

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PROVINSI Populasi TPS (%) TPS QC (%) PROVINSIPopulasi

TPS(%) TPS QC (%)

ACEH 15610 1.93% 58 1.95% KALIMANTAN BARAT 16474 2.04% 61 2.05%

SUMATERA UTARA 42644 5.27% 158 5.31% KALIMANTAN TENGAH 8078 1.00% 30 1.01%

SUMATERA BARAT 16702 2.06% 62 2.08% KALIMANTAN SELATAN 13128 1.62% 49 1.65%

RIAU 17636 2.18% 65 2.18% KALIMANTAN TIMUR 10824 1.34% 39 1.31%

JAMBI 11341 1.40% 42 1.41% KALIMANTAN UTARA 2183 0.27% 8 0.27%

SUMATERA SELATAN 25320 3.13% 94 3.16% SULAWESI UTARA 7825 0.97% 29 0.97%

BENGKULU 6165 0.76% 23 0.77% SULAWESI TENGAH 9179 1.13% 34 1.14%

LAMPUNG 26265 3.24% 97 3.26% SULAWESI SELATAN 26348 3.25% 98 3.29%

KEPULAUAN BANGKA BELITUNG 3800 0.47% 14 0.47% SULAWESI TENGGARA 7815 0.97% 29 0.97%

KEPULAUAN RIAU 5457 0.67% 20 0.67% GORONTALO 3363 0.42% 12 0.40%

DKI JAKARTA 29010 3.58% 107 3.60% SULAWESI BARAT 3864 0.48% 14 0.47%

JAWA BARAT 138050 17.05% 511 17.18% MALUKU 5514 0.68% 20 0.67%

JAWA TENGAH 115391 14.25% 429 14.42% MALUKU UTARA 3792 0.47% 14 0.47%

DAERAH ISTIMEWA YOGYAKARTA 11780 1.46% 44 1.48% PAPUA BARAT 3914 0.48% 15 0.50%

JAWA TIMUR 130012 16.06% 482 16.20% PAPUA 15243 1.88% 33 1.11%

BANTEN 33420 4.13% 123 4.13% Grand Total 809497 100.00% 2975 100.00%

BALI 12384 1.53% 46 1.55%

NUSA TENGGARA BARAT 15988 1.98% 59 1.98%

NUSA TENGGARA TIMUR 14978 1.85% 56 1.88%

KET: Karena ada sejumlah TPS terpilih di Papua yang tidak bisa dijangkau maka TPS quick count di Papua kurang proporsional (kurang seimbang) dibanding populasi TPS. Ketidakseimbangan ini dapat diatasi oleh formula estimasi hasil quick count yang digunakan Indikator (weighting).

HASIL QUICK COUNT PILPRES

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Dari 99.97% data yang masuk, Jokowi-Ma’ruf Amin mendapat suara 54.58%, Prabowo-Sandi 45.42%. Margin of error diperkirakan +/- 0.63%. Grafik stabilitas suara

menunjukkan perolehan suara calon sudah stabil.

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Analisis Quick Count Pilpres Data masuk: 99.97%, sampel suara sah: 565,912


No Pasangan

Calon Estimasi

Suara Margin of

Error* 95% Confidence

Interval

1 Jokowi - Ma'ruf Amin

54.58% +/-0.63% 53.95% - 55.22%

2 Prabowo - Sandi

45.42% +/-0.63% 44.78% - 46.05%

* KET: Hasil quick count dengan ketelitian lima angka di belakang koma: Jokowi-Ma’ruf Amin 54.58424%, Prabowo-Sandi 45.41576%, dan margin of error +/-0.63479% pada confidence level 95%.

• Dari 99.97% data yang masuk diperoleh total sampel suara sah quick count sebanyak 565,912. Dari total sampel suara sah ini, suara Jokowi-Ma’ruf Amin diestimasi sekitar 54.58%, dan Prabowo-Sandi 45.42%.

• Dengan margin of error +/- 0.63%, maka suara Jokowi-Ma’ruf Amin diperkirakan antara 53.95% - 55.22% dan suara Prabowo-Sandi 44.78% - 46.05%.

• Selisih suara antar kedua calon signifikan secara statistik, sehingga pasangan Jokowi-Ma’ruf Amin diprediksi akan memenangkan pemilihan presiden.

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Estimasi Suara, Moe & Signifikansi Perbedaan Suara Capres Menurut Provinsi


PROVTPS

TERPILIH

TPS

MASUK% TPS

SAMPEL

SUARA SAH

JOKOWI-

AMIN (%)

PRABOWO-

SANDI (%)

MOE (+/-)

(%)

SIG

(p < 0.05) *

11. ACEH 58 58 100.00 10,368 15.01 84.99 4.34 sig.

12. SUMATERA UTARA 158 158 100.00 27,532 50.09 49.91 4.83 ts

13. SUMATERA BARAT 62 62 100.00 10,964 15.88 84.12 3.44 sig.

14. RIAU 65 65 100.00 12,295 40.63 59.37 6.42 sig.

15. JAMBI 42 42 100.00 7,438 36.34 63.66 6.54 sig.

16. SUMATERA SELATAN 94 94 100.00 18,235 38.84 61.16 3.67 sig.

17. BENGKULU 23 23 100.00 4,449 52.61 47.39 7.32 ts

18. LAMPUNG 97 97 100.00 17,326 60.33 39.67 4.32 sig.

19. KEP. BANGKA BELITUNG 14 14 100.00 2,789 66.45 33.55 9.96 sig.

21. KEPULAUAN RIAU 20 20 100.00 3,904 47.10 52.90 4.86 ts

31. DKI JAKARTA 107 107 100.00 23,341 51.39 48.61 3.11 ts

32. JAWA BARAT 511 511 100.00 99,368 39.37 60.63 1.24 sig.

33. JAWA TENGAH 429 429 100.00 80,608 77.02 22.98 1.20 sig.

34. DI YOGYAKARTA 44 44 100.00 9,002 70.05 29.95 3.52 sig.

35. JAWA TIMUR 482 482 100.00 91,119 65.66 34.34 1.52 sig.

36. BANTEN 123 123 100.00 24,610 37.22 62.78 2.82 sig.

51. BALI 46 46 100.00 9,464 90.14 9.86 4.07 sig.

* KET:

• SIG (p<0.05) adalah signifikansi selisih suara antar kedua calon di masing-masing provinsi pada significance level 0.05: sig=signifikan, ts=tidak signifikan.

• Dari 34 provinsi, ada 10 provinsi yang tidak signifikan—terutama karena jumlah sampel yang terbatas—, yang berarti quick count tidak punya bukti yang cukup untuk menyimpulkan pasangan mana yang unggul dalam pilpres di provinsi-provinsi tersebut. Sepuluh provinsi tersebut adalah Sumut, Bengkulu, Kepri, DKI, Kalbar, Kaltara, Sulteng, Gorontalo, Maluku, Malut.

• Analisis simultan memungkinkan setidaknya ada 2 dari 34 provinsi yang hasil sebenarnya di luar margin of error.

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… Lanjutan: Estimasi Suara, Moe & Signifikansi Perbedaan Suara Capres Menurut Provinsi


PROVTPS

TERPILIH

TPS

MASUK% TPS

SAMPEL

SUARA SAH

JOKOWI-

AMIN (%)

PRABOWO-

SANDI (%)

MOE (+/-)

(%)

SIG

(p < 0.05) *

52. NUSA TENGGARA BARAT 59 59 100.00 10,603 29.78 70.22 4.54 sig.

53. NUSA TENGGARA TIMUR 56 56 100.00 10,734 83.10 16.90 6.49 sig.

61. KALIMANTAN BARAT 61 61 100.00 11,104 50.28 49.72 8.02 ts

62. KALIMANTAN TENGAH 30 30 100.00 5,088 59.22 40.78 8.94 sig.

63. KALIMANTAN SELATAN 49 49 100.00 8,301 33.27 66.73 4.82 sig.

64. KALIMANTAN TIMUR 39 39 100.00 6,973 59.25 40.75 6.06 sig.

65. KALIMANTAN UTARA 8 8 100.00 1,512 62.19 37.81 13.52 ts

71. SULAWESI UTARA 29 29 100.00 6,012 77.12 22.88 7.82 sig.

72. SULAWESI TENGAH 34 34 100.00 6,059 53.26 46.74 7.03 ts

73. SULAWESI SELATAN 98 98 100.00 18,323 43.61 56.39 4.34 sig.

74. SULAWESI TENGGARA 29 28 96.55 5,530 31.14 68.86 6.53 sig.

75. GORONTALO 12 12 100.00 2,638 53.52 46.48 8.20 ts

76. SULAWESI BARAT 14 14 100.00 2,922 69.48 30.52 6.72 sig.

81. MALUKU 20 20 100.00 3,629 61.07 38.93 15.82 ts

82. MALUKU UTARA 14 14 100.00 2,730 41.26 58.74 14.19 ts

91. PAPUA BARAT 15 15 100.00 3,017 77.80 22.20 9.03 sig.

94. PAPUA 33 33 100.00 7,925 83.57 16.43 10.15 sig.

TOTAL 2975 2974 99.97 565,912 54.58 45.42 0.63 sig.* KET:

• SIG (p<0.05) adalah signifikansi selisih suara antar kedua calon di masing-masing provinsi pada significance level 0.05: sig=signifikan, ts=tidak signifikan.

• Dari 34 provinsi, ada 10 provinsi yang tidak signifikan—terutama karena jumlah sampel yang terbatas—, yang berarti quick count tidak punya bukti yang cukup untuk menyimpulkan pasangan mana yang unggul dalam pilpres di provinsi-provinsi tersebut. Sepuluh provinsi tersebut adalah Sumut, Bengkulu, Kepri, DKI, Kalbar, Kaltara, Sulteng, Gorontalo, Maluku, Malut.

• Analisis simultan memungkinkan setidaknya ada 2 dari 34 provinsi yang hasil sebenarnya di luar margin of error.


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• Dari 99.97% data yang masuk, diperoleh sebanyak 565,912 total sampel suara sah dalam quick count pilpres.

• Dari total sampel suara sah tersebut, suara Jokowi-Ma’ruf Amin diestimasi sekitar 54.58%, dan Prabowo-Sandi 45.42%.

• Dengan margin of error +/- 0.63%, maka suara Jokowi-Ma’ruf Amin diperkirakan antara 53.95%-55.22% dan suara Prabowo-Sandi 44.78%-46.05%.

• Selisih suara antar kedua calon signifikan secara statistik, sehingga pasangan Jokowi-Ma’ruf Amin diprediksi akan memenangkan pemilihan presiden.

Kesimpulan Quick Count Pilpres

QUICK COUNT PILEG DPR RI

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Estimasi Suara Partai secara Nasional Data Masuk: 99.80%, Total sampel suara sah: 473,826

10.13

12.66

18.92

11.84

9.04

0.62

2.37

8.18

2.68

4.39

2.03

6.54

1.75

7.61

0.95 0.28

0

5

10

15

20

25

PKB Gerindra PDIP Golkar NasDem Garuda Berkarya PKS Perindo PPP PSI PAN Hanura Demokrat PBB PKPI

Pers

enta

se

Analisisi Suara Partai Secara Nasional Data Masuk: 99.80% (Total Sampel Suara Sah=473,826)

Lower Upper

PDIP 18.92% 0.47% 18.45% 19.39% Lolos

GERINDRA 12.66% 0.35% 12.31% 13.01% Lolos

GOLKAR 11.84% 0.37% 11.47% 12.21% Lolos

PKB 10.13% 0.47% 9.66% 10.60% Lolos

NASDEM 9.04% 0.46% 8.58% 9.50% Lolos

PKS 8.18% 0.25% 7.93% 8.43% Lolos

DEMOKRAT 7.61% 0.29% 7.32% 7.90% Lolos

PAN 6.54% 0.29% 6.25% 6.83% Lolos

PPP 4.39% 0.21% 4.18% 4.60% Lolos

PERINDO 2.68% 0.11% 2.57% 2.79% Tidak Lolos

BERKARYA 2.37% 0.54% 1.83% 2.91% Tidak Lolos

PSI 2.03% 0.25% 1.78% 2.28% Tidak Lolos

HANURA 1.75% 0.15% 1.60% 1.90% Tidak Lolos

PBB 0.95% 0.09% 0.86% 1.04% Tidak Lolos

GARUDA 0.62% 0.10% 0.52% 0.72% Tidak Lolos

PKPI 0.28% 0.04% 0.24% 0.32% Tidak Lolos

CONFIDENCE

INTERVAL 95%SUARA MOE (+/-)PARTAIPrediksi

Lolos PT

• Sebanyak sembilan partai politik diperkirakan akan lolos ke Senayan karena mendapat suara signifikan di atas 4%, yakni PDIP, Gerindra, Golkar, PKB, NasDem, PKS, Demokrat, PAN, dan PPP.

• Perolehan suara Perindo dan Berkarya masih terpaut dalam margin of error, yang berarti quick count tidak mendapat bukti yang cukup untuk menyimpulkan bahwa total suara Perindo di atas Berkarya.

• Total suara Berkarya juga tidak beda signifikan dengan PSI dan Hanura, sehingga di antara ketiga partai itu yang lebih tinggi suaranya bisa Berkarya, bisa PSI, bisa Hanura.

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Estimasi Suara Partai Per Provinsi*


% MOE Lo Up % MOE Lo Up % MOE Lo Up % MOE Lo Up

ACEH 58 58 100.00 8,250 7.25% 2.42% 4.82% 9.67% 12.76% 2.56% 10.19% 15.32% 3.43% 1.32% 2.12% 4.75% 13.24% 3.88% 9.36% 17.13%

SUMATERA UTARA 158 158 100.00 22,873 3.30% 0.75% 2.55% 4.05% 14.64% 1.82% 12.82% 16.47% 19.52% 2.92% 16.59% 22.44% 12.91% 1.65% 11.26% 14.56%

SUMATERA BARAT 62 62 100.00 9,967 3.99% 1.44% 2.55% 5.43% 19.60% 3.41% 16.20% 23.01% 4.68% 1.84% 2.84% 6.51% 7.58% 2.09% 5.49% 9.67%

RIAU 65 65 100.00 10,488 7.41% 2.46% 4.95% 9.87% 12.04% 2.32% 9.72% 14.36% 13.87% 3.53% 10.34% 17.40% 12.01% 2.70% 9.31% 14.71%

JAMBI 42 42 100.00 6,176 5.51% 2.28% 3.23% 7.80% 14.73% 5.26% 9.47% 19.98% 9.07% 3.70% 5.38% 12.77% 19.91% 6.40% 13.50% 26.31%

SUMATERA SELATAN 94 93 98.94 15,762 7.36% 2.15% 5.21% 9.51% 16.10% 2.95% 13.15% 19.05% 12.64% 2.03% 10.61% 14.66% 13.95% 2.56% 11.38% 16.51%

BENGKULU 23 23 100.00 3,582 7.90% 2.75% 5.15% 10.65% 12.85% 4.52% 8.34% 17.37% 14.05% 4.08% 9.97% 18.13% 15.15% 5.28% 9.87% 20.43%

LAMPUNG 97 97 100.00 14,503 8.99% 1.98% 7.00% 10.97% 10.30% 1.45% 8.85% 11.74% 21.97% 3.82% 18.15% 25.78% 10.21% 1.65% 8.55% 11.86%

KEP. BANGKA BELITUNG 14 14 100.00 2,418 3.25% 1.22% 2.03% 4.48% 11.39% 3.28% 8.10% 14.67% 22.86% 5.63% 17.23% 28.49% 12.43% 4.37% 8.06% 16.79%

KEPULAUAN RIAU 20 20 100.00 3,129 3.13% 0.94% 2.19% 4.07% 8.82% 2.85% 5.97% 11.68% 16.03% 4.44% 11.59% 20.46% 18.51% 9.74% 8.77% 28.25%

DKI JAKARTA 107 107 100.00 20,214 4.42% 0.64% 3.78% 5.05% 14.07% 1.53% 12.54% 15.60% 23.41% 2.25% 21.16% 25.66% 4.22% 0.99% 3.23% 5.21%

JAWA BARAT 511 511 100.00 80,952 7.94% 0.76% 7.18% 8.69% 17.75% 0.90% 16.85% 18.65% 14.10% 0.84% 13.26% 14.93% 13.02% 0.99% 12.02% 14.01%

JAWA TENGAH 429 429 100.00 69,171 14.16% 1.24% 12.92% 15.39% 8.65% 0.87% 7.78% 9.52% 29.88% 1.70% 28.18% 31.58% 12.34% 1.16% 11.18% 13.50%

DI YOGYAKARTA 44 44 100.00 8,168 14.26% 5.24% 9.02% 19.49% 10.52% 2.73% 7.79% 13.24% 29.43% 4.27% 25.16% 33.70% 6.80% 2.05% 4.75% 8.86%

JAWA TIMUR 482 481 99.79 77,893 18.35% 1.30% 17.05% 19.65% 11.73% 1.34% 10.39% 13.07% 18.87% 1.37% 17.50% 20.24% 9.20% 0.89% 8.31% 10.09%

BANTEN 123 123 100.00 17,561 8.24% 1.52% 6.72% 9.75% 14.57% 1.39% 13.18% 15.96% 15.81% 2.13% 13.68% 17.94% 12.95% 1.89% 11.06% 14.84%

BALI 46 46 100.00 7,953 2.28% 1.21% 1.06% 3.49% 4.53% 1.07% 3.46% 5.60% 56.61% 8.17% 48.44% 64.79% 13.03% 4.35% 8.68% 17.37%

NUSA TENGGARA BARAT 59 59 100.00 8,844 10.43% 3.53% 6.90% 13.96% 15.56% 3.21% 12.35% 18.77% 7.26% 2.08% 5.18% 9.35% 12.64% 3.44% 9.20% 16.09%

NUSA TENGGARA TIMUR 56 54 96.43 7,995 7.88% 3.11% 4.77% 10.98% 7.37% 2.44% 4.93% 9.81% 19.49% 4.31% 15.18% 23.80% 13.27% 3.56% 9.71% 16.84%

KALIMANTAN BARAT 61 61 100.00 9,551 7.70% 1.98% 5.73% 9.68% 11.21% 2.33% 8.88% 13.54% 23.80% 6.61% 17.19% 30.41% 9.22% 2.46% 6.76% 11.67%

KALIMANTAN TENGAH 30 30 100.00 3,728 7.37% 2.90% 4.47% 10.27% 10.04% 3.55% 6.50% 13.59% 30.26% 9.23% 21.03% 39.49% 17.00% 5.55% 11.45% 22.55%

KALIMANTAN SELATAN 49 49 100.00 5,912 9.33% 3.75% 5.58% 13.08% 17.23% 4.53% 12.69% 21.76% 15.69% 3.83% 11.86% 19.52% 17.53% 6.26% 11.27% 23.80%

KALIMANTAN TIMUR 39 39 100.00 5,929 4.74% 1.14% 3.60% 5.87% 10.97% 3.24% 7.73% 14.22% 20.67% 4.30% 16.37% 24.96% 21.19% 4.92% 16.27% 26.11%

KALIMANTAN UTARA 8 8 100.00 1,374 8.06% 5.55% 2.52% 13.61% 5.90% 3.12% 2.79% 9.02% 17.88% 7.21% 10.67% 25.09% 6.28% 2.14% 4.14% 8.42%

SULAWESI UTARA 29 29 100.00 5,470 0.97% 0.42% 0.55% 1.39% 3.98% 1.43% 2.55% 5.40% 39.27% 7.69% 31.58% 46.96% 14.43% 5.54% 8.89% 19.97%

SULAWESI TENGAH 34 34 100.00 5,507 7.74% 2.77% 4.97% 10.51% 14.81% 3.73% 11.08% 18.54% 11.04% 4.38% 6.67% 15.42% 12.67% 2.95% 9.72% 15.63%

SULAWESI SELATAN 98 98 100.00 16,567 5.47% 1.59% 3.89% 7.06% 15.22% 3.04% 12.17% 18.26% 6.76% 1.46% 5.30% 8.22% 16.93% 3.14% 13.79% 20.07%

SULAWESI TENGGARA 29 27 93.10 3,755 5.18% 2.56% 2.61% 7.74% 15.82% 5.44% 10.38% 21.25% 15.10% 5.49% 9.62% 20.59% 15.14% 6.41% 8.73% 21.55%

GORONTALO 12 12 100.00 2,459 1.40% 0.74% 0.66% 2.13% 9.57% 3.99% 5.58% 13.55% 4.14% 2.31% 1.83% 6.46% 21.60% 8.81% 12.79% 30.41%

SULAWESI BARAT 14 14 100.00 2,452 6.39% 3.71% 2.68% 10.10% 9.28% 2.56% 6.71% 11.84% 27.63% 9.59% 18.04% 37.21% 7.89% 3.59% 4.31% 11.48%

MALUKU 20 20 100.00 3,023 7.81% 4.89% 2.92% 12.69% 8.29% 3.34% 4.95% 11.63% 22.81% 8.45% 14.37% 31.26% 9.31% 4.47% 4.84% 13.78%

MALUKU UTARA 14 14 100.00 2,307 9.54% 7.76% 1.78% 17.30% 6.14% 2.26% 3.87% 8.40% 13.67% 6.59% 7.07% 20.26% 15.20% 5.36% 9.83% 20.56%

PAPUA BARAT 15 15 100.00 2,585 4.42% 2.02% 2.40% 6.44% 12.73% 4.07% 8.66% 16.80% 16.65% 6.81% 9.84% 23.46% 15.22% 5.74% 9.48% 20.97%

PAPUA 33 33 100.00 7,308 21.03% 14.44% 6.58% 35.47% 4.52% 2.84% 1.68% 7.36% 7.82% 3.62% 4.20% 11.44% 5.95% 3.10% 2.85% 9.05%

TOTAL 2975 2969 99.80 473,826 10.13% 0.47% 9.66% 10.60% 12.66% 0.35% 12.31% 13.01% 18.92% 0.47% 18.45% 19.39% 11.84% 0.37% 11.47% 12.21%

PDIP GOLKARSampel

Suara SahPROV

TPS

Terpilih

TPS

Masuk% TPS

PKB GERINDRA

* KET: Lo=batas bawah confidence interval 95%, Up=batas atas confidence interval 95%. Dengan 34 provinsi dan 16 partai maka total ada 34x16=544 parameter (suara partai) yang diestimasi. Dalam analisis simultan ini maka ada kemungkinan setidaknya 27

dari 544 (5%) estimate yang nilai sebenarnya berada di luar confidence interval.

19






ACEH 58 58 100.00 8,250 7.04% 1.63% 5.41% 8.67% 0.55% 0.23% 0.32% 0.79% 2.91% 0.83% 2.08% 3.74% 8.24% 1.52% 6.72% 9.76%

SUMATERA UTARA 158 158 100.00 22,873 11.12% 1.96% 9.16% 13.07% 0.71% 0.68% 0.03% 1.39% 1.43% 0.24% 1.19% 1.67% 9.18% 1.26% 7.92% 10.43%

SUMATERA BARAT 62 62 100.00 9,967 8.90% 2.85% 6.05% 11.74% 0.48% 0.18% 0.30% 0.66% 2.05% 0.50% 1.55% 2.56% 10.98% 1.91% 9.07% 12.90%

RIAU 65 65 100.00 10,488 5.40% 1.84% 3.57% 7.24% 0.36% 0.13% 0.23% 0.49% 2.33% 0.99% 1.34% 3.32% 11.28% 2.37% 8.91% 13.65%

JAMBI 42 42 100.00 6,176 5.78% 2.11% 3.68% 7.89% 0.24% 0.15% 0.09% 0.39% 2.59% 0.62% 1.96% 3.21% 8.57% 3.60% 4.98% 12.17%


BENGKULU 23 23 100.00 3,582 10.99% 5.38% 5.61% 16.37% 0.89% 0.44% 0.46% 1.33% 2.31% 0.64% 1.68% 2.95% 6.31% 1.74% 4.57% 8.05%

LAMPUNG 97 97 100.00 14,503 9.53% 3.15% 6.38% 12.68% 0.71% 0.23% 0.48% 0.95% 2.04% 0.38% 1.66% 2.42% 8.68% 2.13% 6.55% 10.81%


KEPULAUAN RIAU 20 20 100.00 3,129 12.53% 6.22% 6.31% 18.76% 0.96% 1.25% 0.00% 2.21% 1.79% 0.94% 0.85% 2.73% 11.61% 4.93% 6.68% 16.54%

DKI JAKARTA 107 107 100.00 20,214 5.02% 1.04% 3.97% 6.06% 0.45% 0.18% 0.28% 0.63% 1.47% 0.30% 1.17% 1.78% 17.50% 1.85% 15.65% 19.35%

JAWA BARAT 511 511 100.00 80,952 5.18% 0.51% 4.68% 5.69% 0.55% 0.09% 0.46% 0.63% 2.50% 0.27% 2.23% 2.76% 13.13% 0.86% 12.27% 13.99%

JAWA TENGAH 429 429 100.00 69,171 7.32% 1.01% 6.31% 8.33% 0.34% 0.08% 0.27% 0.42% 1.63% 0.16% 1.47% 1.80% 6.00% 0.62% 5.37% 6.62%

DI YOGYAKARTA 44 44 100.00 8,168 7.66% 2.42% 5.24% 10.08% 0.45% 0.18% 0.28% 0.63% 2.54% 0.50% 2.05% 3.04% 9.14% 2.97% 6.17% 12.11%

JAWA TIMUR 482 481 99.79 77,893 9.73% 1.33% 8.40% 11.06% 0.37% 0.07% 0.30% 0.44% 1.37% 0.13% 1.24% 1.50% 4.30% 0.56% 3.74% 4.85%

BANTEN 123 123 100.00 17,561 4.55% 1.00% 3.55% 5.55% 0.49% 0.13% 0.35% 0.62% 3.10% 0.59% 2.51% 3.69% 11.54% 1.71% 9.83% 13.24%

BALI 46 46 100.00 7,953 4.77% 2.44% 2.33% 7.21% 0.54% 0.23% 0.31% 0.77% 1.56% 0.48% 1.08% 2.04% 2.43% 2.51% 0.00% 4.94%








SULAWESI UTARA 29 29 100.00 5,470 16.62% 4.04% 12.58% 20.67% 0.67% 0.60% 0.07% 1.27% 1.14% 0.43% 0.71% 1.58% 1.31% 1.17% 0.14% 2.48%

SULAWESI TENGAH 34 34 100.00 5,507 17.33% 4.37% 12.95% 21.70% 0.83% 0.43% 0.40% 1.27% 2.75% 0.65% 2.10% 3.41% 5.26% 2.18% 3.08% 7.45%



GORONTALO 12 12 100.00 2,459 34.65% 12.49% 22.16% 47.13% 0.16% 0.20% 0.00% 0.36% 1.26% 0.51% 0.76% 1.77% 4.32% 2.12% 2.20% 6.44%

SULAWESI BARAT 14 14 100.00 2,452 14.05% 4.58% 9.47% 18.64% 1.36% 0.64% 0.72% 2.00% 1.59% 0.66% 0.93% 2.26% 2.23% 1.16% 1.07% 3.39%

MALUKU 20 20 100.00 3,023 13.04% 5.73% 7.31% 18.77% 0.70% 0.32% 0.38% 1.02% 2.72% 0.96% 1.76% 3.68% 9.03% 5.22% 3.81% 14.26%

MALUKU UTARA 14 14 100.00 2,307 10.25% 5.85% 4.40% 16.10% 2.93% 1.85% 1.08% 4.77% 2.74% 1.53% 1.21% 4.27% 8.64% 8.44% 0.21% 17.08%

PAPUA BARAT 15 15 100.00 2,585 13.96% 9.45% 4.51% 23.40% 0.85% 0.79% 0.05% 1.64% 2.67% 1.17% 1.50% 3.85% 3.99% 1.96% 2.03% 5.95%

PAPUA 33 33 100.00 7,308 18.25% 13.20% 5.05% 31.45% 3.75% 3.85% 0.00% 7.59% 13.45% 20.85% 0.00% 34.30% 2.36% 1.14% 1.22% 3.50%

TOTAL 2975 2969 99.80 473,826 9.04% 0.46% 8.58% 9.50% 0.62% 0.10% 0.52% 0.72% 2.37% 0.54% 1.83% 2.91% 8.18% 0.25% 7.93% 8.43%

PROVTPS

Terpilih

TPS

Masuk% TPS

BERKARYA PKSNASDEM GARUDASampel

Suara Sah

20






ACEH 58 58 100.00 8,250 1.01% 0.37% 0.64% 1.38% 7.68% 1.57% 6.10% 9.25% 1.29% 0.47% 0.82% 1.77% 10.29% 2.94% 7.35% 13.22%

SUMATERA UTARA 158 158 100.00 22,873 4.09% 1.00% 3.09% 5.10% 2.95% 0.60% 2.35% 3.56% 1.40% 0.37% 1.03% 1.77% 8.69% 1.64% 7.05% 10.32%

SUMATERA BARAT 62 62 100.00 9,967 1.56% 0.53% 1.02% 2.09% 5.35% 1.80% 3.55% 7.15% 1.55% 0.62% 0.93% 2.18% 15.99% 3.67% 12.32% 19.66%

RIAU 65 65 100.00 10,488 2.31% 0.74% 1.57% 3.05% 7.46% 2.58% 4.88% 10.04% 1.42% 0.51% 0.92% 1.93% 10.99% 2.61% 8.38% 13.60%

JAMBI 42 42 100.00 6,176 3.55% 2.64% 0.91% 6.19% 3.90% 1.27% 2.63% 5.17% 1.26% 0.64% 0.63% 1.90% 11.67% 4.20% 7.46% 15.87%


BENGKULU 23 23 100.00 3,582 4.91% 2.29% 2.61% 7.20% 2.68% 0.67% 2.01% 3.34% 0.89% 0.42% 0.47% 1.31% 11.03% 6.04% 4.98% 17.07%

LAMPUNG 97 97 100.00 14,503 2.96% 0.78% 2.18% 3.74% 2.71% 0.85% 1.86% 3.56% 1.44% 0.46% 0.98% 1.89% 8.11% 1.79% 6.33% 9.90%


KEPULAUAN RIAU 20 20 100.00 3,129 1.82% 0.74% 1.08% 2.56% 2.42% 1.24% 1.18% 3.66% 1.41% 0.48% 0.92% 1.89% 11.67% 3.83% 7.85% 15.50%

DKI JAKARTA 107 107 100.00 20,214 2.75% 0.39% 2.36% 3.14% 3.07% 0.91% 2.15% 3.98% 8.34% 2.11% 6.23% 10.46% 6.65% 1.38% 5.27% 8.03%

JAWA BARAT 511 511 100.00 80,952 2.81% 0.22% 2.59% 3.03% 4.29% 0.48% 3.81% 4.76% 1.81% 0.24% 1.56% 2.05% 6.68% 0.68% 6.00% 7.36%

JAWA TENGAH 429 429 100.00 69,171 2.10% 0.25% 1.85% 2.35% 4.67% 0.61% 4.07% 5.28% 1.33% 0.27% 1.06% 1.60% 4.35% 0.66% 3.68% 5.01%

DI YOGYAKARTA 44 44 100.00 8,168 1.11% 0.34% 0.77% 1.45% 2.49% 0.99% 1.51% 3.48% 1.72% 0.51% 1.20% 2.23% 9.93% 3.00% 6.93% 12.93%

JAWA TIMUR 482 481 99.79 77,893 2.33% 0.27% 2.06% 2.60% 5.95% 1.03% 4.92% 6.98% 1.64% 0.34% 1.30% 1.98% 5.71% 1.07% 4.64% 6.78%

BANTEN 123 123 100.00 17,561 3.20% 0.61% 2.59% 3.81% 4.98% 1.09% 3.89% 6.07% 2.57% 0.71% 1.86% 3.28% 5.61% 1.28% 4.33% 6.90%

BALI 46 46 100.00 7,953 1.33% 0.59% 0.74% 1.92% 0.61% 0.44% 0.17% 1.04% 3.72% 2.42% 1.30% 6.14% 0.29% 0.17% 0.12% 0.46%








SULAWESI UTARA 29 29 100.00 5,470 2.11% 1.39% 0.72% 3.50% 1.79% 1.32% 0.47% 3.10% 1.76% 0.88% 0.89% 2.64% 5.74% 3.56% 2.19% 9.30%

SULAWESI TENGAH 34 34 100.00 5,507 3.17% 1.89% 1.28% 5.06% 2.87% 1.87% 1.01% 4.74% 2.94% 1.17% 1.77% 4.11% 5.60% 2.05% 3.55% 7.65%



GORONTALO 12 12 100.00 2,459 1.61% 0.99% 0.61% 2.60% 9.32% 5.11% 4.20% 14.43% 1.77% 1.89% 0.00% 3.67% 2.35% 1.48% 0.86% 3.83%

SULAWESI BARAT 14 14 100.00 2,452 3.06% 2.12% 0.94% 5.17% 1.99% 1.13% 0.86% 3.12% 0.91% 0.49% 0.42% 1.39% 4.22% 1.66% 2.55% 5.88%

MALUKU 20 20 100.00 3,023 2.99% 1.03% 1.96% 4.02% 3.80% 2.51% 1.29% 6.31% 2.70% 1.38% 1.32% 4.08% 4.14% 2.60% 1.54% 6.74%

MALUKU UTARA 14 14 100.00 2,307 7.51% 6.75% 0.76% 14.26% 2.43% 1.49% 0.95% 3.92% 1.42% 0.99% 0.43% 2.40% 2.75% 1.25% 1.49% 4.00%

PAPUA BARAT 15 15 100.00 2,585 2.98% 1.71% 1.27% 4.70% 2.44% 1.13% 1.31% 3.57% 1.67% 1.03% 0.64% 2.70% 2.67% 1.45% 1.22% 4.12%

PAPUA 33 33 100.00 7,308 3.02% 1.50% 1.52% 4.53% 1.91% 0.96% 0.95% 2.88% 6.11% 9.21% 0.00% 15.32% 2.51% 2.30% 0.21% 4.81%

TOTAL 2975 2969 99.80 473,826 2.68% 0.11% 2.57% 2.79% 4.39% 0.21% 4.18% 4.60% 2.03% 0.25% 1.78% 2.28% 6.54% 0.29% 6.25% 6.83%

Sampel

Suara SahPROV

TPS

Terpilih

TPS

Masuk% TPS

PERINDO PPP PSI PAN

21






ACEH 58 58 100.00 8,250 2.37% 2.23% 0.13% 4.60% 16.53% 3.45% 13.08% 19.98% 5.11% 3.15% 1.96% 8.25% 0.31% 0.29% 0.02% 0.60%

SUMATERA UTARA 158 158 100.00 22,873 2.31% 0.63% 1.68% 2.94% 6.05% 1.09% 4.97% 7.14% 1.36% 0.49% 0.86% 1.85% 0.35% 0.23% 0.11% 0.58%

SUMATERA BARAT 62 62 100.00 9,967 2.68% 1.54% 1.14% 4.22% 12.91% 3.33% 9.58% 16.24% 1.55% 0.50% 1.05% 2.06% 0.14% 0.08% 0.06% 0.22%

RIAU 65 65 100.00 10,488 2.54% 1.75% 0.80% 4.29% 9.09% 2.30% 6.78% 11.39% 1.20% 0.56% 0.64% 1.76% 0.29% 0.16% 0.12% 0.45%

JAMBI 42 42 100.00 6,176 0.81% 0.34% 0.47% 1.15% 11.13% 5.17% 5.96% 16.30% 1.18% 0.82% 0.36% 1.99% 0.10% 0.08% 0.02% 0.17%


BENGKULU 23 23 100.00 3,582 2.77% 1.33% 1.44% 4.09% 5.14% 2.69% 2.45% 7.83% 1.05% 0.85% 0.20% 1.90% 1.09% 0.75% 0.34% 1.83%

LAMPUNG 97 97 100.00 14,503 0.94% 0.49% 0.44% 1.43% 10.81% 2.85% 7.96% 13.66% 0.42% 0.18% 0.24% 0.59% 0.21% 0.16% 0.05% 0.36%


KEPULAUAN RIAU 20 20 100.00 3,129 0.73% 0.44% 0.29% 1.18% 7.19% 2.56% 4.63% 9.75% 1.27% 1.17% 0.11% 2.44% 0.10% 0.11% 0.00% 0.20%

DKI JAKARTA 107 107 100.00 20,214 1.54% 0.67% 0.87% 2.21% 5.67% 0.95% 4.72% 6.62% 1.10% 0.51% 0.59% 1.62% 0.32% 0.17% 0.15% 0.49%

JAWA BARAT 511 511 100.00 80,952 1.21% 0.23% 0.98% 1.44% 7.82% 0.63% 7.18% 8.45% 0.95% 0.18% 0.77% 1.12% 0.28% 0.08% 0.20% 0.36%

JAWA TENGAH 429 429 100.00 69,171 0.69% 0.17% 0.51% 0.86% 6.03% 0.78% 5.25% 6.80% 0.35% 0.11% 0.24% 0.46% 0.18% 0.07% 0.11% 0.25%

DI YOGYAKARTA 44 44 100.00 8,168 0.16% 0.13% 0.03% 0.29% 3.29% 1.43% 1.87% 4.72% 0.37% 0.18% 0.18% 0.55% 0.12% 0.08% 0.04% 0.21%

JAWA TIMUR 482 481 99.79 77,893 1.52% 0.48% 1.04% 2.00% 8.14% 1.03% 7.11% 9.16% 0.61% 0.20% 0.40% 0.81% 0.19% 0.06% 0.13% 0.26%

BANTEN 123 123 100.00 17,561 1.81% 0.49% 1.32% 2.30% 9.20% 1.67% 7.53% 10.88% 1.20% 0.55% 0.65% 1.76% 0.18% 0.07% 0.10% 0.25%

BALI 46 46 100.00 7,953 2.57% 1.48% 1.08% 4.05% 5.50% 2.47% 3.03% 7.97% 0.09% 0.08% 0.01% 0.17% 0.16% 0.12% 0.04% 0.29%








SULAWESI UTARA 29 29 100.00 5,470 4.92% 4.91% 0.01% 9.83% 5.12% 1.81% 3.31% 6.92% 0.02% 0.04% 0.00% 0.06% 0.16% 0.12% 0.04% 0.28%

SULAWESI TENGAH 34 34 100.00 5,507 4.48% 1.92% 2.56% 6.40% 6.84% 3.62% 3.23% 10.46% 1.42% 0.77% 0.66% 2.19% 0.22% 0.13% 0.08% 0.35%



GORONTALO 12 12 100.00 2,459 2.56% 2.09% 0.47% 4.65% 4.64% 3.46% 1.17% 8.10% 0.49% 0.60% 0.00% 1.10% 0.17% 0.18% 0.00% 0.35%

SULAWESI BARAT 14 14 100.00 2,452 2.61% 2.83% 0.00% 5.44% 15.74% 10.21% 5.53% 25.95% 0.69% 0.36% 0.33% 1.05% 0.37% 0.35% 0.02% 0.72%

MALUKU 20 20 100.00 3,023 4.70% 2.51% 2.20% 7.21% 5.86% 2.79% 3.06% 8.65% 0.99% 0.54% 0.45% 1.53% 1.09% 0.76% 0.33% 1.86%

MALUKU UTARA 14 14 100.00 2,307 5.06% 3.54% 1.52% 8.59% 10.78% 5.32% 5.47% 16.10% 0.73% 0.56% 0.17% 1.30% 0.22% 0.21% 0.01% 0.43%

PAPUA BARAT 15 15 100.00 2,585 4.39% 5.14% 0.00% 9.53% 10.91% 5.93% 4.99% 16.84% 3.55% 3.99% 0.00% 7.55% 0.89% 0.96% 0.00% 1.85%

PAPUA 33 33 100.00 7,308 3.96% 2.49% 1.47% 6.46% 3.56% 2.31% 1.25% 5.87% 0.62% 0.52% 0.11% 1.14% 1.18% 1.16% 0.02% 2.34%

TOTAL 2975 2969 99.80 473,826 1.75% 0.15% 1.60% 1.90% 7.61% 0.29% 7.32% 7.90% 0.95% 0.09% 0.86% 1.04% 0.28% 0.04% 0.24% 0.32%

PROVHANURA DEMOKRAT PBB PKPITPS

Terpilih

TPS

Masuk% TPS

Sampel

Suara Sah

22

Stabilitas Suara Partai


Perolehan suara partai di akhir periode data masuk terlihat cukup stabil.


23

• Dari 99.80% data yang masuk, diperoleh sebanyak 473,826 total sampel suara sah dalam quick count pileg DPR RI.

• Dari total sampel suara sah tersebut, diprediksi ada sembilan partai yang akan lolos ke senayan karena perolehan suaranya signifikan di atas ambang batas 4%.

• Perolehan suara 9 partai tersebut diperkirakan sebagai berikut:

• PDIP : 18.92% (moe +/-0.47%)

• GERINDRA : 12.66% (moe +/-0.35%)

• GOLKAR : 11.84% (moe +/-0.37%)

• PKB : 10.13% (moe +/-0.47%)

• NASDEM : 9.04% (moe +/-0.46%)

• PKS : 8.18% (moe +/-0.25%)

• DEMOKRAT : 7.61% (moe +/-0.29%)

• PAN : 6.54% (moe +/-0.29%)

• PPP : 4.39% (moe +/-0.21%)

Kesimpulan Quick Count Pileg DPR RI

REFERENSI

Cochran, W.G. 1977. Sampling Techniques, 3rd ed. New York: Wiley.

Kish, L. 1965. Survey Sampling. New York: Wiley.

Scheaffer, R.L., Mendenhall, W., and Ott, L. 1996. Elementary Survey Sampling, 5th ed. Belmont, Calif [u.a.]: Duxbury Press.


25

DOKUMENTASI


27

Workshop & Simulasi Data Center H-2 (Jakarta, 15 April 2019)


28

Simulasi Data Center H-1 (Jakarta, 16 April 2019)


29

Data Center Hari H (Jakarta, 17 April 2019)


30

Press Conference Hasil Quick Count (Jakarta, 17 April 2019)


31

Workshop Relawan (Aceh, 13 April 2019)


32

Workshop Relawan (Sumatera Selatan, 14 April 2019)


33

Workshop Relawan (Jawa Barat, 14 April 2019)


34

Workshop Relawan (Jawa Tengah, 13 April 2019)


35

Workshop Relawan (Jawa Timur, 14 April 2019)


36

Workshop Relawan (Bali, 14 April 2019)


37

Workshop Relawan (NTB, 12 April 2019)


38

Workshop Relawan (Kalimantan Selatan, 13 April 2019)


39

Workshop Relawan (Maluku Utara, 13 April 2019)


40

Workshop Relawan (Papua, 14 April 2019)


41

Relawan Quick Count di TPS (Simeulue, Aceh, 17 April 2019)


42

Relawan Sedang Melakukan Exit Poll (Sumatera Utara, 17 April 2019)


43

Suasana di TPS Quick Count

(Bekasi, Jawa Barat, 17 April 2019)


44

Suasana di TPS Quick Count

(Jepara, Jawa Tengah, 17 April 2019)


45

Relawan Quick Count di TPS

(Gunung Kidul, DIY, 17 April 2019)


46


(Bengkayang, Kalbar, 17 April 2019)


47

Relawan Sedang Melakukan Exit Poll

(Sulawesi Selatan, 17 April 2019)


48


(Halmahera Utara, Malut, 17 April 2019)


49


(Papua, 17 April 2019)


50

Relawan Sedang Melakukan Exit Poll

(Papua, 17 April 2019)

Update Laporan: 24 APRIL 2019 · 2019. 4. 24. · Quality Control & Validasi Data Quick Count 7...

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