TINJAUAN KEBIJAKAN MONETE R - bi.go.id · T i n j a u a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t e r | 12 13.4...
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Tinjauan Kebijakan Moneter | 1 TINJAUAN KEBIJAKAN MONETE R Juni 2013
Transcript of TINJAUAN KEBIJAKAN MONETE R - bi.go.id · T i n j a u a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t e r | 12 13.4...
T i n j a u a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t e r | 1
TINJAUAN KEBIJAKAN MONETE R
Juni 2013
T i n j a u a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t e r | 2
T i n j a u a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t e r | 3
T i n j a u a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t e r | 4
T i n j a u a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t e r | 5
T i n j a u a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t e r | 6
T i n j a u a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t e r | 7
T i n j a u a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t e r | 8
T i n j a u a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t e r | 9
T i n j a u a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t e r | 10
5.75
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
3.6
4.1
4.6
5.1
5.6
16-M
ar-1
2
5-Ap
r-12
25-A
pr-1
2
15-M
ay-1
2
4-Ju
n-12
24-J
un-1
2
14-J
ul-1
2
3-Au
g-12
23-A
ug-1
2
12-S
ep-1
2
2-O
ct-1
2
22-O
ct-1
2
11-N
ov-1
2
1-D
ec-1
2
21-D
ec-1
2
10-J
an-1
3
30-J
an-1
3
19-F
eb-1
3
11-M
ar-1
3
31-M
ar-1
3
20-A
pr-1
3
10-M
ay-1
3
30-M
ay-1
3
Vol DF O/N (RHS) Vol PUAB O/N
BI Rate rPUAB O/N
rDF O/N
% Rp T% Rp T% Rp T% Rp T
Avg Vol DF: Rp56,5 TRRT Vol PUAB : Rp12,0 T
rPUAB : 4,16%
(rhs)
T i n j a u a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t e r | 11
11
.49
11
.27
13
.58
11
.49
11
.29
13
.40
11
.45
11
.27
13
.22
11
.44
11
.24
13
.28
11
.44
11
.21
13
.22
11
12
13
14
Sb KMK Sb KI Sb KK
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
%
Apr Mei Jun Jul Agt Sep Okt Nov Des Jan Feb Mar Apr
BI Rate 5,75 5,75 5,75 5,75 5,75 5,75 5,75 5,75 5,75 5,75 5,75 5,75 5,75
Penjaminan Deposito 5,50 5,50 5,50 5,50 5,50 5,50 5,50 5,50 5,50 5,50 5,50 5,50 5,50
Dep 1 bulan (rata-rata tertimbang) 5,42 5,35 5,39 5,39 5,42 5,40 5,49 5,42 5,58 5,49 5,43 5,51 5,42
Kredit Modal Kerja (KMK) 11,86 11,78 11,79 11,78 11,73 11,70 11,68 11,61 11,49 11,49 11,45 11,44 11,44
Kredit Investasi (KI) 11,56 11,51 11,46 11,42 11,35 11,36 11,29 11,24 11,27 11,29 11,27 11,24 11,21
Kredit Konsumsi (KK) 14,10 14,03 13,90 13,92 13,69 13,67 13,60 13,53 13,58 13,40 13,22 13,28 13,22
2013Suku Bunga (%)
2012
T i n j a u a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t e r | 12
13.4
16.0
4
6
8
10
12
14
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Jan-
10
Mar
-10
May
-10
Jul-1
0
Sep-
10
Nov
-10
Jan-
11
Mar
-11
May
-11
Jul-1
1
Sep-
11
Nov
-11
Jan-
12
Mar
-12
May
-12
Jul-1
2
Sep-
12
Nov
-12
Jan-
13
Mar
-13
M2 M1 BI Rate (RHS)%, yoy %, yoy
Per April 2013
Indikator
Utama Apr Mei Juni Jul Agt Sep Okt Nov Des Jan Feb Mar Apr
Total Aset (T Rp) 3.745,1 3.827,4 3.891,1 3.902,5 3.923,8 4.009,4 4.028,8 4.103,5 4.262,6 4.211,0 4.237,1 4.313,8 4.367,8
DPK (T Rp) 2.841,4 2.909,0 2.955,8 2.961,4 2.984,1 3.050,0 3.070,6 3.130,5 3.225,2 3.204,5 3.207,3 3.243,1 3.299,4
Kredit * (T Rp) 2.317,2 2.386,1 2.452,9 2.470,1 2.510,6 2.555,9 2.585,4 2.631,0 2.742,7 2.687,4 2.742,7 2.792,7 2.844,9
LDR* (%) 81,6 82,0 83,0 83,4 84,1 83,8 84,2 84,0 84,0 83,9 84,8 85,4 85,6
NPLs Gross* (%) 2,3 2,3 2,2 2,2 2,2 2,1 2,2 2,0 1,9 2,0 2,0 2,0 2,0
CAR (%) 18,0 17,9 17,5 17,3 17,3 17,4 17,3 17,4 17,4 19,2 19,2 18,9 18,6
NIM (%) 5,3 5,3 5,4 5,4 5,4 5,5 5,5 5,5 5,5 5,5 5,3 5,4 5,4
ROA (%) 3,0 3,0 3,2 3,1 3,1 3,1 3,1 3,1 3,1 3,1 2,9 3,0 2,9
* tanpa channeling
20132012
T i n j a u a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t e r | 13
21.88
16.15.75
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Jan
-08
Mar
-08
Mei
-08
Juli-
08
Sep
-08
No
v-0
8Ja
n-0
9M
ar-0
9M
ei-0
9Ju
li-0
9Se
pt-
09
No
v-0
9Ja
n-1
0M
ar-1
0M
ay-1
0Ju
l-1
0Se
p-1
0N
ov-
10
Jan
-11
Mar
-11
May
-11
Jul-
11
Sep
-11
No
v-1
1Ja
n-1
2M
ar-1
2M
ay-1
2Ju
l-1
2Se
p-1
2N
ov-
12
Jan
-13
Mar
-13
Kredit DPK BI rate (RHS)%
Per Apr 2013 -5
5
15
25
35
45
55
Jan
-08
May
-08
Sep
-08
Jan
-09
May
-09
Sep
-09
Jan
-10
May
-10
Sep
-10
Jan
-11
May
-11
Sep
-11
Jan
-12
May
-12
Sep
-12
Jan
-13
Total Kredit KMK KI KK% yoy
Per Apr 2013
T i n j a u a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t e r | 14
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
Jan
-07
Ap
r-0
7Ju
l-0
7O
ct-0
7Ja
n-0
8A
pr-
08
Jul-
08
Oct
-08
Jan
-09
Ap
r-0
9Ju
l-0
9O
ct-0
9Ja
n-1
0A
pr-
10
Jul-
10
Oct
-10
Jan
-11
Ap
r-1
1Ju
l-1
1O
ct-1
1Ja
n-1
2A
pr-
12
Jul-
12
Oct
-12
Jan
-13
Ap
r-1
3
JCI BI RATE
0,7%
-5,7%
-12,5%
-4,4%
-3,3%
-2,2%
13,3%
5,6%
9,4%
17,1%
-15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20%
IHSG
Infrastructure
Mining
Finance
Basic Industry
Misc. Industry
Consumption
Trade
Agriculture
Property
Monthly Changes
T i n j a u a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t e r | 15
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
4
4,5
5
5,5
6
6,5
7
7,5
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 15 20 30
Apr 2013 - Mei 2013 (mtm)Apr-13May-13
%bps
Tenor
3,49
9,50
3,54 3,43
5,98
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
ThaiLand Vietnam Philippine Malaysia Indonesia
Yield SBN
Inflation
%
(1,9)
1,4
5,2 5,8 5,3 4,1
2,8
(2,9)
(11,0)
1,4
(1,6)
5,7 7,3
(5,8)
(2,9)
4,1
(3,9)
(8,6)
3,7
(7,7)
3,5
(2,0)
5,5
(2,8)
0,6 2,0
(5,6)
4,4 4,6
4,0
5,0
6,0
7,0
8,0
9,0
10,0
(15,0)
(10,0)
(5,0)
0,0
5,0
10,0
15,0
Jan
Mar
May
July
Sep
t
No
v
Jan
Mar
Mei
Juli
Sep
t
No
v
Jan
Mar
Mei
2011 2012 2013
Short Term Medium Term
Long Term 'yield SBN'
T i n j a u a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t e r | 16
Mei Juni Jul Agt Sep Okt Nov Des Jan Feb Mar Apr Mei
SUKU BUNGA & SAHAM
Suku bunga SBI 9 bln 1) 4,24 4,32 4,46 4,54 4,67 4,75 4,77 4,80 4,84 4,86 4,87 4,89 -
Suku bunga deposito 1 bln 2) 5,35 5,39 5,39 5,42 5,40 5,49 5,42 5,58 5,49 5,43 5,51 5,42 -
Suku bunga deposito 3 bln 2) 5,89 5,76 5,67 5,61 5,69 5,66 5,81 5,76 5,89 5,92 5,64 5,73 -
JIBOR satu minggu 2) 3,83 4,10 4,17 4,29 4,24 4,27 4,29 4,32 4,30 4,28 4,28 4,28 -
IHSG Indeks 3) 3.833 3.956 4.142 4.060 4.263 4.350 4.276 4.317 4.454 4.796 4.941 5.034 5.069
BESARAN MONETER (miliar Rp)
Uang Primer 604.979 627.359 634.993 657.955 638.869 648.106 647.979 704.843 664.007 655.486 664.935 667.122 -
M1(C+D) 749.450 779.416 771.792 772.429 795.518 774.983 801.403 841.721 787.916 786.606 810.112 836.508 -
Uang Kartal (C) 294.768 314.670 315.375 327.059 325.566 326.119 327.069 361.967 326.885 321.541 331.226 328.628 -
Uang giral (D) 454.682 464.746 456.417 445.370 469.952 448.864 474.334 479.755 461.031 465.065 478.886 507.880 -
Uang Beredar Luas (M2 = C+D+T+S) 2.992.057 3.050.355 3.054.534 3.089.011 3.125.533 3.161.726 3.205.129 3.304.645 3.265.869 3.277.426 3.319.468 3.318.858 -
Uang kuasi (T) 2.227.527 2.254.329 2.269.809 2.304.474 2.318.559 2.376.102 2.393.320 2.452.503 2.467.124 2.479.959 2.497.223 2.469.449 -
Uang kuasi (Rupiah) 1.900.824 1.915.625 1.926.046 1.960.339 1.968.062 2.009.812 2.022.975 2.092.654 2.095.427 2.105.861 2.123.999 2.100.406 -
Deposito 1.027.151 1.016.060 1.017.021 1.030.262 1.030.830 1.060.357 1.058.871 1.066.527 1.079.275 1.098.083 1.123.609 1.102.593 -
Tabungan Total 873.673 899.565 909.025 930.077 937.232 949.456 964.105 1.026.127 1.016.152 1.007.778 1.000.390 997.813 -
Deposito (Valas) 159.186 164.762 170.722 171.517 180.380 187.859 190.178 177.508 173.616 169.755 182.383 178.375 -
Simpanan Giro Valuta Asing 167.516 173.942 173.041 172.617 170.117 178.430 180.166 182.341 198.081 204.343 190.841 190.669 -
Surat Berharga Selain Saham (S) 15.081 16.610 12.932 12.108 11.457 10.640 10.406 10.420 10.829 10.861 12.132 12.902 -
Tagihan kepada Sektor Lainnya 2.586.786 2.653.871 2.668.447 2.696.876 2.758.170 2.791.363 2.833.571 2.920.934 2.897.711 2.921.209 2.970.116 2.971.524 -
Tagihan pada Sektor Swasta 2.289.504 2.361.812 2.378.914 2.406.188 2.471.071 2.504.939 2.504.347 2.584.819 2.556.620 2.571.080 2.616.046 2.601.903 -
Inflasi bulanan (%, mtm) 0,07 0,62 0,70 0,95 0,01 0,16 0,07 0,54 1,03 0,75 0,63 -0,10 -0,03
Inflasi tahunan (%, yoy) 4,45 4,53 4,56 4,58 4,31 4,61 4,32 4,30 4,57 5,31 5,90 5,57 5,47
Rp/USD (akhir periode, nilai tengah) 9.565 9.480 9.485 9.560 9.588 9.615 9.605 9.670 9.698 9.667 9.719 9.722 9.795
Ekspor Barang Non migas (f.o.b, juta USD) 4) 13.315 12.420 13.168 11.238 13.011 12.636 13.202 12.313 12.386 11.897 12.727 - -
Impor Barang Non migas (c & f, juta USD) 4) 13.363 12.918 13.282 10.366 11.733 13.053 12.479 11.715 11.608 11.619 10.969 - -
2013
Pertumbuhan PDB (%, yoy) 6,2 6,1 6,0
Konsumsi 4,5 3,9 4,7
Investasi (PMTB) 9,8 7,3 5,9
Perubahan Stok -9,5 94,6 10,2
Ekspor -2,6 0,5 3,4
Impor -0,2 6,8 -0,4
1) minggu terakhir
2) rata-rata tertimbang
3) penutupan pada akhir periode
4) closed file
Sumber : Bank Indonesia, kecuali data pasar modal (BAPEPAM), IHK, ekspor/impor dan PDB dari BPS
2013
Tw.I
5,6
SEKTOR KEUANGAN
11,3
12,5
H A R G A
SEKTOR EKSTERNAL
INDIKATOR KUARTALAN
2012
Tw.IV
2012
Tw.III
108,7
2,6
Tw.II
6,4
