BIOGAS POWER PLANT PROJECT Business Process, · PDF fileDesign & Planning Stage Construction...

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BIOGAS POWER PLANT PROJECT

Business Process, Due Diligence and Risk

Management

USAID ICED II

Belitung, 26 October 2016

OUTLINE

Small Scale Commercial Biogas Power Plant Business

Commercial Biogas Power Project Development

Biogas Power Project Due Diligence

Risks Analysis and Management

PLTBG= Pembangkit Listrik Tenaga Biogas


BIOGAS DARI POME PLTBG 20 kV, 50 Hz, 3 PhaseJTR 400 V, JTM 20 kV, Transmisi diatas 20 kV

IDR/USD as FIT Regulation

Energi Primer/

Sumber Energi Terbarukan

Teknologi Pembangkit Listrik

Tenaga ListrikTitik Koneksi,

Jaringan Listrik PLNPembayaran PLN

Pembelian/ Pengadaan Energi

Primer

Konversi Energi Primer Menjadi Energi Listrik

ProdukPenjualan &

Penyaluran ProdukRevenue/

Penghasilan

Resources Resources Owner Developers Mechanism

BOOT/BOT approach requires

Legally Binding Agreements on:

• Land Use

• Delivery of waste stream

• Energy supply and purchase

Key Benefit of BOOT/BOT approach:

• Reduces many financial risks for “Host” company of implementing an

improved energy system

• Reduce energy costs in the near term, during BOOT period, and significantly

over the long term after transfer of assets

• Improves Environment around mill


Model

FEEDSTOCK (POME)Private / BUMN /

Public

Resources Owner

Third Party

Project Developer

Own Project

(In-House or Turn-Key)

BOO Scheme

(Built-Own-Operate)

BOOT Scheme

(Built-Own-Operate-Transfer

OUTLINE





Studi Lingkungan

Studi Interkoneksi

Pengurusan Ijin, Akusisi

Lahan

Pra-Studi

Kelayakan/Pr

e-FS/FS

Konsep/ Basic Desain

Perijinan & Lahan

Equitas

PJBL/PPA

EPC Kontrak Draft

O&M Kontrak Draft

Fuel Supply Agreement

Draft

Financing

Detail Engineering

Design

Procurement

Construction

COD

Production

Design & Planning Stage Construction StageOperational

Stage

Kualitas Basic Design & Planning yg baik menentukan

tingkat kelayakan finansial, ekonomi, dan lingkungan

dari proposal bisnis

Project Management dan Kontraktor

yang berkualitas menentukan

suskes tidaknya tahap konstruksi

3 ~ 6 bulan 6 ~12 bulan

12 bulan

12 ~ 18 bulan

Commercial Biogas Power Project Development:

Project Stages

O & M

RISK MANAGEMENT and DUE DILIGENCE MUST BE DONE IN ALL STAGES OF THE PROJECTS!!

Typically 15 ~ 20 years

1. Pre-FS and & Interconnection Study

2. Raise Seed Equity

3. Feasibility Study

4. Obtain Local Permits

5. Feedstock Supply Agreement (FSA)

6. Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) with PLN

7. EPC Contract & O&M Contract

8. Land Acquisition

9. Obtain balance of permits & License

10. Raise balance of equity

11. Obtain debt financing

12. Financial Closure

13. Implement construction work

14. Test Run and COD

15. Operation Stage

16. Project Transfer or Decommissioning

Commercial Biogas Power Project Development:

Project Timeline

3 - 6 months 6 - 12 months 6 - 12 months 12 – 18 months Typically 15 ~ 20 years

OUTLINE


Development of Commercial Biogas Power Project

Due Diligence of Commercial Biogas Power Project


9

Due Diligence Process

Independent Engineering Consultant

Independent Environment & Socio-

Culture Consultant

Independent Law Consultant

Independent SpecilistIndependensi, kerahasiaan, bebas dari konflik

interest, quality & control risk management control

adalah kunci suksesnya due dligence yg berkualitas

konsultan ahli project

biogas yang

berpengalaman

nasional/internasional

konsultan ahli

lingkungan,sosio-kultur

harus nasional/lokal

konsultan ahli hukum

harus nasional

METODE DUE DILIGENCE DALAM TAHAP DESIGN &

PLANNING (GREEN FIELD TYPE PROJECT)

cek semua aspek teknis

desain, analysis, metode

dan data apakah valid?

cek semua aspek lingkungan

& sosial apakah ada

rencana mitigasi & alokasi

risk yg jelas?

cek semua aspek yg berkaitan dengan legalitas

contract,perizinan, hukum apakah ada masalah?

spesialis ahli project biogas yang

berpengalaman nasional/internasional

cek semua aspek teknis yang

spesifik apakah ada masalah?

DETAIL DESK REVIEW &

ASSESMENT

FIELD REVIEW/CHECK

10




Culture Consultant


Independent SpecilistIndependensi, kerahasiaan, bebas dari konflik

interest, quality & control risk management control

adalah kunci suksesnya due dligence yg berkualitas


biogas yang

berpengalaman


konsultan ahli




harus nasional

METODE DUE DILIGENCE DALAM TAHAP DESIGN &

PLANNING (GREEN FIELD TYPE PROJECT)

cek semua aspek teknis

desain, progress project,

dan output apakah sesuai

dengan desain?

cek semua aspek lingkungan

& sosial apakah ada

rencana mitigasi & alokasi

risk yg jelas?

cek semua aspek yg berkaitan dengan

legalitas, contract, perizinan, hukum apakah

ada masalah?



cek semua aspek teknis yang

spesifik apakah ada masalah?


ASSESMENT

DETAIL FIELD REVIEW &

ASSESSMENT

Questions need to be answered:

• Is the project developer a credible, experienced and financially

capable to develop the proposed project design?

• Is the project proposal complete, qualified, and feasible?

• Is the project location properly selected and located?

• Is there any issue related to land right, environment and social

related to project site?

PROPER DUE DILIGENCE

PROPER DUE DILIGENCE

DETAIL DESK REVIEW & ASSESSMENT of PROJECT DEVELOPER and PROJECT PROPOSAL + FIELD REVIEW/CHECK

DETAIL DESK REVIEW & ASSESSMENT of PROJECT DEVELOPER and PROJECT PROPOSAL + DETAIL FIELD REVIEW &

ASSESSMENT

Questions need to be answered:

• Is the project developer a credible, experienced and financially

capable to finish the proposed project construction/operation?

• Is the project detail design complete, qualified, and constructible?

• Is the project location properly selected and located?

• Is there any issue related to land right, environment and social related

to project site?

GREEN FIELD TYPE PROJECTS

BROWN FIELD TYPE PROJECTS

TUJUAN:1. Mengindentifikasi gap atau resiko yang ada pada proposal investasi yang

diajukan oleh pengembang proyek.

2. Mengundang pengembang proyek untuk melakukan proper mitigasi dan

proper alokasi resiko yang berhasil diindentifikasi dalam proses DD.

MANFAAT: Mendapatkan proposal proyek dan pengembang proyek yang dapat

diandalkan dalam mengembangkan/mewujudkan proyek.

Note:Due Diligence/Uji Tuntas adalah suatu proses yang berulang yang harus dilakukan oleh

lender/investor untuk sampai pada tahap dimana lender/investor yakin dan puas bahwa

tidak ada lagi gap/resiko signifikan pada proposal proyek yang diajukan oleh pengembang

dan lender/investor yakin bahwa pengembang akan mampu mewujudkan proyeknya

sesuai dengan target dan jadwal yang ditentukan, dan project tersebut mampu beroperasi

dan menghasilkan revenue sesuai dengan yang diperkirakan sehingga pada akhirnya

lender/investor sampai pada keputusan untuk membiayai proyek.12

TUJUAN DAN MANFAAT DARI DUE DILIGENCE

(DD)/UJI TUNTAS

Aspect of Structure Type of The Project

Aspect of Project Company & Sponsor

Aspect of Contractual Structure

Aspect of Technical (Engineering Design & Construction)

Aspect of Environment and Social Culture

Aspect of Financial

13

ASSESSMENT OF VARIOUS KEY ASPECTS IN THE DUE

DILIGENCE

LIMITED RESOURCE STRUCTURE, PROJECT FINANCING

FUEL SUPPLIER

LENDERS

MAIN CONTRACTOR

INSURANCE COMPANY

O & M OPERATOR

HOST GOVERNMENT

POWER PURCHASER

PEMEGANG SAHAM

Partner 1 Partner 2Other equity

investors

Sub-contractor

Power Purchase Agreement

Fuel Supply Agreement

Construction Contract O & M Contract

Loan AgreementPermits & Licenses

Insurance Agreement

Shareholder’s Agreement

ProjectVehicle

Loan Proceeds

Limited Guarantees

“Deliver or pay

Agreement”“Take or/& pay

Agreement”

ASPECT OF STRUCTURE PROJECT (1)

Permits (IUPTL, Principal

Permit, IMB, UKL-UPL, Etc)

PLN

EPC

LENDERS

MAIN CONTRACTOR

POWER PURCHASER

Sub-contractor

Power Purchase Agreement

Construction Contract

ProjectSponsor

Loan Proceeds

“Take or/& pay

Agreement”

Loan Agreement

Loan Proceeds

Sales Proceeds

Loan Repayment

15

ASPECT OF STRUCTURE PROJECT (2)

FULL RESOURCE STRUCTURE, BALANCE SHEET FINANCING

PLN

EPC

A small commercial project: The capacity of small scale Biogas Projectcapacity is around 0.5 MW to 3 MW.

A dedicated Power Plant: A small scale IPP Biogas Power Plant thatconnects and serves to PLN as a Sole Of Taker within “TAKE OR PAYPPA” type or “TAKE AND PAY PPA” type.

Project Sponsor generally has Equity around 20-35% of totalinvestment cost and Lender provides Loan for the rest.

Project Company may use single EPC (turn key) contractor or somedifferent contractors for project construction.

Project Company may use different O & M contractor(s) to Operateand Maintenance the Biogas Power Plant.

All agreements or contracts are significant for project risk allocations

BOO/BOT/BOOT agreement is complicated. All related parties arelooking for the best deal structure for the agreement.

GENERAL CHARATERISITICS






Aspect of Financial

17


DILIGENCE

Lakukan Audit/Investigasi pada Project Company dan Sponsor

pada:

Besarnya presentase saham masing-masing partner dalam project

Pengalaman partne & sponsor utama dalam pengembangan proyek

Role masing-masing masing-masing partner dalam project

Cek Share Holder Agreement/BOO/BOT/BOOT Agreement: Perjanjian

yang ada diantara partner (struktur, prosedur voting, dll)

Apakah sponsor utama memiliki dokumen legal yang cukup?

Financial Statement proyek (Proforma) dari sponsor utama

Struktur Manajemen Proyek, CV manager dan board member

Strategi corporate dan kebijakan manajemen finansial sponsor (termasuk

rasio finansial, dividend policy, dll)

Rencana pengembang untuk akses ke sumber-sumber pendanaan jika

sponsor kekurangan ‘equity’ dimasa yang akan datang.

Review/Assessment of Project Company & Sponsor

Flow Diagram to review/assess the Strength of Project

Company & Sponsor in the Project Development

No Due Diligence Item Informasi Yang Diperlukan Check

1 Shareholders and percentage of

ownership of each shareholder in

the Project Company

Project Company Name : PT. XYZ

Share holders:

a. Share holder 1 : ? %

b. Share holder 2 : ? %

c. Share holder 3 : ? %

d. Share holder 4 : ? %

2 Corporate Licenses a. Approval Letter of Foreign Capital Investment ("SP-PMA")

b. MOLHR approval of the IPP’s deed of establishment.

c. Certificate of Domicile issued by the Head of Sub District.

d. Registration of the Deed of Establishment with the DOT.

e. Corporate Financial Year Reports

f. Report on Domestic and Foreign Capital Investment

Activities

3 Shareholders review a. Shareholders Agreement

b. Shareholders structure changes

c. Shareholders ‘s structure changes

d. Voting procedures

Yes No

Example Check list for DD of Project Company & Sponsor

(1)


4 Company Management Review a. CV of each manager

b. CV of each board member

c. Relevance of background experience

5 Proforma review a. Project assumptions are reasonable

b. Financial model is audited.

c. Sensitivity/scenario analysis conducted to weigh various risks.

d. Cost & production structure is appropriate from technical

perspective.

e. Technical specialists are involved in the analysis

6 Project sponsor experiences a. Experiences in RE power projects in Indonesia

b. Experiences in the similar/same power projects

c. Experiences in RE power projects in overseas

7 Project sponsor corporate

strategy

a. Financial management policy (financial ratios, dividend policy)

b. Plan to access the equity market/investors in the future

c. Plan for developing future projects

Example Check list for DD of Project Company & Sponsor

(2)






Aspect of Financial

22


DILIGENCE

Lakukan Investigasi pada seluruh kontrak/perjanjian yang meliputi:

Purchase Power Agreement (PPA)

Kontrak EPC, atau kontrak-kontrak dengan seluruh kontraktor.

Fuel Supply/POME Supply Agrement

Kontrak Operation & Maintenance (O & M)

Kontrak servis dan maintenance jangka panjang (Long-Term Services

Agreement – LTSA) dengan suplier peralatan (jika ada)

Perjanjian jual beli/sewa tanah

Rencana persiapan Jaringan listrik dan Interkoneksinya ke grid PLN

Asuransi (Construction All Work, business interruption, third party

liabilities, dll.)

Review/Assessment of Project Contractual Structure


5 Land-lease agreement review a. Agreement in place ?

b. Located in protected forest land?

c. Any guarantee on available capacity

d. Fair reward and penalty clause on meeting contracted

capacity

6 Interconnection and distribution

line arrangement review

a. Interconnection requirements

b. Agreement and planned facilities

c. Testing and Commissioning Date & Procedures

d. Interconnection point review

e. Transaction point review

f. Power meter review

7 Project insurance program a. Construction insurance all work

b. Business interruption insurance

c. Third party liabilities

Yes No

Example Check list for DD of Contractual Structure of The

Project (1)


1 PPA review a. PPA in place ?

b. Type of PPA contract: (take-or-pay contract)?

c. Any guarantee on available capacity

d. Fair reward and penalty clause on meeting contracted

capacity

2 EPC contract review a. EPC contract or not

b. EPC salient features:

c. - Warranty

d. - Lump sum

e. - Cost plus fee

f. Match with PPA

3 O & M contract review a. O & M contract in place?

b. Match with PPA

c. LTSA with equipment suppliers

4 Fuel Supply Agreement (in case of

biomass/biogas projects)

a. FSA in place?

b. Supply guarantee

c. FOB/CIF price structure

d. Review of transportation methodology

Yes No

25

Example Check list for DD of Contractual Structure of The

Project (2)






Aspect of Financial

26


DILIGENCE

No Due Diligence Item Note

1 Identify, evaluate & review Design Criteria Document

2 Check , evaluate and review Project Access Plans & related Issues

3 Evaluate & review POME and BIOGAS analysis

4 Evaluate & review energy analysis

5 Evaluate & safety design and analysis

6 Evaluate & review topographic studies

7 Evaluate & review geotechnical analysis

8 Evaluate & review M& E Equipment quality and specification

9 Evaluate & review Project Drawings

10 Evaluate & review Cost Estimate & cash flow, and Project scheduling

11 Evaluate & review design of transmission & interconnection system

12 Evaluate & review Project organization & quality control and O&M plan

Example Check list for DD of The Technical Aspect (1)


1 Identified risks and mitigation plan

development

a. Has the project company done it?

2 Feasibility Study Review a. Is FS in place?

b. Is FS updated with the newest information?

c. Review of project layout

d. Review of general design

e. Review of DED by Technical specialists/consultants

3 Project Organization review (during

construction and operational

phases)

a. Key management post s are filled

b. Key management competency are relevant

4 Technology issues review a. POME & BIOGAS study review

b. Feedstock availability and security supply study

c. Choice of technology review

d. Choice of equipment suppliers review

e. Choice of contractors review

f. Choice of DED consultant review

Yes No

28

Example Check list for DD of The Technical Aspect (1)






Aspect of Financial

29


DILIGENCE

Lakukan Investigasi pada aspek lingkungan dan sosial yang meliputi:

Kewajiban dan perijinan untuk memenuhi persyaratan lingkungan untuk

semua fasilitas proyek (AMDAL/UKL/UPL)

Dokumen AMDAL/UKL/UPL, apakah ada isu kritis lingkungan dan sosial

spesifik yang harus diperhatikan didalam pengembangan dan pengoperasian

PLTA. Apakah sudah diperhitungkan biaya yang mungkin timbul?

Aktivitas dan prosedur konsultasi publik: apakah sudah dilakukan atau

direncanakan? Bagaimana hal yang menjadi perhatian utama publik

dipertibangkan didalam dokumen AMDAL/UKL/UPL? Apakah ada protes

atau publisitas negatif untuk pembangunan proyek?

Tingkat pemahaman masyarakat terhadap manfaat PLTA

Review/Assessment of Environment & Social Aspects


1 Review AMDAL/UKL-UPL a. AMDAL/UKL-UPL in place?

b. UKL/UPL addresses and mitigates the environmental and

social risks

c. Critical socio-environmental issues addressed for project

development and operation

d. Critical socio-environmental issues reflected in the project

cost

2 Review description of project facilities a. Is there any potential risk that may affect project design

and investment and/or operational costs?

3 Review if public consultation

procedures and activities

a. Are the procedures and activities have been completed (or

planned)?

b. Review key public concerns and how they are addressed

in project planning/AMDAL documents

c. Have there been any protests or negative publicity

regarding the project?

4 Review support from the local

communities

a. Does the local communities understand the benefit of the

development of RE project for them

Yes No

31

Example Check list for DD of The Environment and Social

Aspect (1)






Aspect of Financial

32


DILIGENCE


1 Review rincian detail biaya proyek

(termasuk rincian biaya kontrak EPC

dan contingency

Konsultan independen harus mereview apakah detail

biaya proyek sudah diperkirakan dengan akurat.

Memastikan bahwa lingkup kerja kontraktor dan supplier

sudah lengkap tanpa ada kekurangan atau contingeny

yang kurang tepat. Garansi penyelesaian dari semua

kontraktor

2 Review kemungkinan terjadi COST OVERRUNS (apakah diberikan skenario optimis dan pesimis

disamping skenario dasar, dan apakah diberikan juga

analisa sensitivitas & bagaimana rencana

mitigasinya?)

Selain alokasi contigengy budget didalam total biaya

proyek, bank dapat meminta sponsor untuk berkontribusi

pada contingency modal yang siap untuk dilepaskan/

diberikan ketika diminta oleh bank.

3 Bagaimana rencana pendanaan: terms for

subscription of shares by any other shareholder ;

terms of proposed bridge financing (if any); terms of

proposed senior debt financing

Bank, as the senior debt provider, needs to ensure that it

has the strongest lender’s security in the financing terms

4 Review detil asumsi yang digunakan: Asumsi Makroekonomi dan referensi asumsi yang

diambil.

Asumsi tersebut seharusnya realistik, tidak terlalu jauh

dari kondisi saat ini.Refernsi asumsi: Gunakan asumsi

dari sumber terpercaya APBN, BI dan BPS

5 Asumsi Finansial: suku bunga, financial fee, IDC,

Required ROR

Suku bungan dan financial fee harus dikonfirmasi dengan

sumber pendanaan.Praktek umum proyek: memasukkan

IDC dalam biaya investasi. - ROR harus reaslistik33

Review/Assessment of Financial Aspects (1)


6 Review financial model:•Investment and operational assumptions

•Energy sold and revenues; other revenues, if any (e.g.

carbon credit, steam, compost etc)

•Operational costs; administrative costs (salaries); O&M

costs; lease payments, etc

•Taxes

•Depreciation and amortization of assets

•Interest during construction

•Insurance

•Fees to be paid to the government, if any

•Assumptions related to current assets and current

liabilities

•Dividend pay out

•Capital expenditures

•Disbursement schedule

Check that the financial model assumptions,

costs and revenues are reasonable and

realistic (e.g. the price of CER/carbon credit);

comparisons may be made with other project

investments, best practices, or in accordance

with the accounting standard. The Bank will

take input from engineer about project output

and project cash flow

7 Review capital cost; major equipment,

civil work, mechanical and installation

work, transmission lines

Different technology supplier may cause

differences in capital cost (for example Chinese

technology typically has lower investment cost

compared to its European competitors).

Therefore comparing the technology and the

cost proposed in important.



8 Review the project profitability and debt

service capacity (ratios, sensitivity and scenario

analysis, debt service coverage ratio)

Review that the project has adequate cash

flow to pay for the operational cost, debt

(interest and principal), taxes, and dividend

9 Review applicable PPA tariff (see if there’s any price

escalation over time, pass through of feedstock prices, etc).

Bank would want to ensure that PPA tariff

would be able to cover the project cost and

return on equity to project sponsor during the

term of the PPA

PPA tariff should be able to cover the

operational and maintenance cost that are

influenced by inflation

For biomass project, feedstock supply risk,

including prices should also be reflected in the

PPA tariff (however, the current price regime

does not provide a basis for tariff indexation.

35


36

TYPICALL SMALL SCALE BIOGAS POWER PLANT

PROJECT: Project Cost ComponentCAPEX:

Project Development Cost: Permits, Overhead Cost, Study and Engineering Cost (Feasibility

Study, Interconnection Study, Feedstock Lab Test, Soil Test, UKL-UPL,

Basic Engineering Design)

EPC Cost: Site Preparation & Civil Work

Digester System, Piping & Flaring

Gas Cleaning & Pumps System

Gas-Engines & Generator

Controller & Electrical System

Balance of Plants

Grid Interconnection System

Other Cost (IDC & Insurance)

Financing Cost: Interest, Equity Return

Other Cost: Insurance, Tax, CSR, etc

OPEX: Operating Labor

General Administration & Others

Insurance

Digester Service & Maintenance

Gas Engine Service & Maintenance

Sources: World Bank, 2008


PROJECT: Project Cost Reference (Value in 2008)

Capital Expenditures:

Project Development Cost 2%

Site Preparation & Civil Work 5%

Digester System, Piping & Flaring 34%

Gas Cleaning & Pumps System 11%

Gas-Engines & Generator 17%

Controller & Electrikal System 10%

Balance of Plants 11%

Grid Interconection System 4%

Other Cost (IDC & Insurance) 5%

100%

Operational Expenditures:

Operating Labour 25%

General Administration & Others 14%

Insurance 5%

Digester Service & Maintenance 17%

Gas Engine Service & Maintenance 39%

100%

Project Cost Composition

Digester SystemUnit Cost / MW

(USD Million)

CAL System 1.5 – 3

CSTR System 2.5 – 3.5

Install Capacity CAL System Cost

1 MW 2,000,000

1.5 MW 2,500,000

2 MW 3,500,000


PROJECT: Project Cost Reference of Biogas Power Plant

No Due Diligence Item Information Check

1 Review the detailed breakdown of

total project costs

a. Detailed cost has been accurately estimated

b. The Contractor(s) and Supplier(s)work scopes have full

coverage without gaps or inadequate contingencies

c. Completion guarantees of all parties

2 Review the probability of cost

overruns

a. The contingent budget allocation in the total project cost

b. Project sponsor(s) to commit contingent equity

contribution, ready to be disbursed upon request by the

bank

c. Check optimist and pessimist scenario besides basic

scenario

d. Sensitivity analysis and mitigation plan

3 Financing plan a. Check the financing plan: terms for subscription of shares

by any other shareholder ; terms of proposed bridge

financing (if any); terms of proposed senior debt financing

4 Review detail assumptions used a. Macroeconomic assumptions and the references of the

assumptions taken.

Yes No

39

Example Check list for DD of The Financial Aspect (1)


5 Financial assumptions a. Interest rate & financing fees should conform to the

proposed source of fund.

b. Include IDC in investment cost

c. Expected return of equity should be realistic compared to

current economic condition & market return

6 Review financial model a. Is financial model in place?

b. Financial model assumptions, costs and revenues are

reasonable and realistic

7 Review capital cost a. Is there any comparison of different capital cost at different

technology ?

8 Review the project profitability and

debt service capacity

a. The project has adequate cash flow to pay for the

operational cost, debt (interest and principal), taxes, and

dividend

Yes No

40



9 Review applicable PPA tariff a. There’s any price escalation over time, pass through of

feedstock prices, etc

b. PPA tariff would be able to cover the project cost and

return on equity to project sponsor during the term of the

PPA

c. PPA tariff should be able to cover the operational and

maintenance cost that are influenced by inflation

d. For biomass project, feedstock supply risk, including prices

should also be reflected in the PPA tariff

Yes No

41


OUTLINE





43




Culture Consultant


Independent Specilist


biogas yang

berpengalaman


konsultan ahli




harus nasional

ANALIS MANAJEMEN RESIKO PADA TAHAP DESIGN &

PLANNING




ASSESMENT

FIELD REVIEW/CHECK

Resiko-resiko baru tambahan yg

terindentifikasi

Rencana-rencana baru Mitigasi

Resiko

Alokasi Resiko kedalam perbaikan Studi, Desain

Kontrak, dll.

Pengembangan proyek IPP

skala kecil adalah pekerjaan

yang melibatkan

IDENTIFIKASI, MITIGASI

dan ALOKASI RESIKO

proyek selama

pengembangan dan

pengoperasiannya.

ANALIS MANAJEMEN RESIKO UNTUK

PENGEMBANGAN PROYEK BIOGAS

TANPA DESIGN, CONTRUCTION, OPERATION & MAINTENANCE &

MANAGEMENT SAFETY YG TEPAT PROYEK BIOGAS DAPAT MUSNAH TERBAKAR !!

BANK harus memahami dan

memanajemen RESIKO

- Identifikasi Resiko

- Mitigasi Resiko:

Data yang akurat

Desain yang tepat

Lingkungan

Sosial

- Alokasi Resiko:

Contracts

Insurance

Management

Peran BANK dalam MANAJEMEN RESIKO

Seduction of "free money" from CDM

Development of new estates is a priority for many palm oil mill enterprises

Self-contained business generally not interested in local interaction

Limited sense of obligation to operate cleanly

Permit issues: Limited GOI support: incentive + permits

Long wait to obtain PPA

Significant deposits and demanding supply condition made by PLN

Unrealizable grid infrastructure

Lack of business trust between business entities

Term & Condition Lender for Loan Application cannot be fulfilled by

Returns generally not attractive to developers

CHALLENGES OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF BIOGAS

POWER PROJECT IN INDONESIA

THE OVERALL PROPER PROJECT PROPOSAL

Note: by making good choices will a project be viable. Optimal decisionsare necessary for a good return.

SUITABLE ANAEROBIC DIGESTION TECHNOOGY

SUITABLE GAS HANDLING & SCRUBBING TECHNOLOGY

HIGH RELIABILITY & PERFORMANCE RECIPROCATING GAS ENGINE

HIGH RELIABILITY GRID INTERCONNECTION

SUSTAINABLE SUPPLY OF FEEDSTOCK (POME, OTHER ORGANICS WASTE)

LONG LASTING, LOW COST INCOME STREAM + OTHER BENEFIT

+

+

+

+

=

ALIGN FINANCIAL EXPECTATIONS WITH REALITY

Capital cost of digester system...too much and it will slow

down the returns, say 30% total

Performance of biogas system...often overstated

Scrubber and gas handling .. must work well otherwise create

problems, say 20%

Gas Engines ...efficiency, reliability, focus on biogas,

maintenance support, parts cost, suggest 50% of total cost

(include transformer, control panel, MW switchgear)

Grid Connection requirement and cost…..often

underestimated

Electricification costs ...variable and underestimated

A biogas project is an infrastructure project ...simple payback

periode 5 year or longer

UNDERSTANDING COMMERCIAL BIOGAS PROJECT

RISKS Construction risks, process performance risks, operating risks

Risk management theory says: P(sucess) + P(failure) = 1

P(success)= high standards of gas yield, high performance, financial return, safe

operation

Resource of time, money, know-how are scarce, and there is competition

Wisely allocate scarce resources to increase P(success) or decrease P(failure)

Example of ways to increase P(success):

choose commercially proven technology

select good quality equipment

hire (possibly more expensive) qualified consultant

Examples of ways of decrease P(failure):

ensure senior management commitment

independent project assessment

detailed checking and review during construction

maintain effective communication

Key area:

- POME & Biogas analysis

- Geoteknik

- Project Layout

- Equipment

- Project Budget

- Logistik

- Distribusi listrik dan interkoneksi jaringan

Perencanaan dan Desain

yang tepat:

- Perizinan yang lengkap

- Kriteria desain berkualitas

- Analisa resiko kebakaran,

longsor, gempa bumi dan

desain pencegahannya yang

lengkap.

- Rencana pengoperasian,

pemeliharaan dan perawatan

yang lengkap & terjadwal

Identifikasi Mitigasi

Resiko proyek di

alokasikan melalui

KONTRAK-KONTRAK:

- BOO/BOT/BOOT

agreement

- EPC contract

- Owner Financial Ability

- Insurance

- PPA

- Land Contracts

- Engineer

- Local Authorities

Alokasi

RESIKO DALAM PENGEMBANGAN PROYEK BIOGAS (1)

MANAJEMEN RESIKO penting dalam Kontrol Biaya dan Pendapatan Proyek

BANK SEHARUSNYA TIDAK MENERIMA RESIKO YANG BELUM

DIALOKASIKAN

- Detail POME & BIOGAS Analysis

- Analisa Geoteknikyang cukup akurat

- Concept Design

- Batasan Lingkungandan Sosial

- Local Political Risk

- Kebutuhan Equity

Akses Kapital yang cukup

Perencanaan dan target

yang realistis

Analisa Engineering yang

lengkap

Desain dilaksanakan oleh

Konsultan yg kompeten

Estimasi biaya yang

masuk akal dan lengkap

Securing Land Rights

Identifikasi Mitigasi

Equipment Contract with

reliable supplier

Fixed price contract(s) for

Civil Works and

Installation

Proper Property Rights

Enforceable PPA

Completed Permits

Sufficient Capital -

Proper Project

Contingency

Quality Control

Alokasi

RESIKO DALAM PENGEMBANGAN PROYEK BIOGAS (2)

RESIKO KONSTRUKSI DALAM PENGEMBANGAN

PROYEK BIOGAS

RESIKO EQUIPMENT/PROCESS PERFORMANCE

RESIKO OPERASI

CONTOH RESIKO PROYEK KETIKA DALAM TAHAP

KONSTRUKSI DAN PENGOPERASIAN: KEBAKARAN

CONTOH RESIKO PROYEK KETIKA DALAM TAHAP

KONSTRUKSI DAN PENGOPERASIAN: INSTALASI LINING

COVER LAGOON YG TIDAK TEPAT

Tahap Konstruksi:

– Unexpected conditions

– Design Changes

– Delays

– Delivery Delays

– Commodity Prices

– Contractor financial problems

Tahap Pengoperasian, Perawatan dan Pemeliharaan:

– Hyper-inflation

– Excessive repairs or replacement

– Design related problems

Resiko Biaya dalam pelaksanaan Konstruksi dan

Pengoperasian Proyek

Kapasitas terpasang, instalasi, pengoperasian,

pemeliharaan dan perawatan pembangkit

Total volume BIOGAS yang tersedia – Analisa POME

DAN BIOGAS

Total efficiency (including unit efficiency and losses in the

system)

Kerugian karena transmisi listrik dijaringan

Kehandalan Pembangkit

Currency/Inflation

Resiko-resiko kunci terhadap

Pendapatan Proyek (Revenue)

DR. Hanny J. Berchmans

Clean Energy Project Development Consultant

[email protected]

USAID ICED – Indonesia Clean Energy Development II

Implemented by

Tetra Tech | Complex World, Clear Solutions™

Menara Jamsostek, North Tower 14th Floor | Jl. Gatot Subroto No. 38 | Jakarta12710 INDONESIA

Main: +62 21 5296 2325 | Fax: +62 21 5296 2326

www.iced.or.id

mailto:[email protected]

http://www.iced.or.id/

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