ANALISIS PROSPEKTIF1

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LBLAM[M[ XVC[XNEZMG

Lblam{m{ xvc{xnezmg jlxlz jmale~elb dlb}l {nznald alxcvlb en~lbolb dm{zcvm{ jm{n{~lmelb ~bz~e

inbknvimbelb embnv`l necbcim{ xnv~{ldllb {nklvl le~vlz" Lblam{ xvc{xnezmg inv~xlelb mbzm

xnbmalmlb ngne" Lblam{m{ xvc{xnezmg `~ol fnvo~bl ~bz~e inbo~`m enznxlzlb vnbklbl {zvlznom{

xnv~{ldllb" ^bz~e mz~ xnva~ jmlblam{m{ lxleld xnv~{ldllb ilix~ inbodl{maelb lv~{ el{ }lbo

k~e~x ~bz~e inbjlblm xnvz~if~dlb }lbo jmdlvlxelb lzl~ lxleld xnv~{ldllb ininva~elb

xnbjlbllb ~zlbo lzl~ ne~mzl{ jm il{l jnxlb" Xnva~ jmlblam{m{ x~al lxleld vnbklbl {zvlznom{ embm

lelb inbodl{maelb ilbgllz {nxnvzm }lbo jmvlilaelb cand ilbl`ninb xnv~{ldllb" Jlb ledmvb}l!

lblam{m{ xvc{xnezmg fnvo~bl flom evnjmzcv ~bz~e inbmalm enilix~lb xnv~{ldllb ~bz~e ininb~dm

enwl`mflbb}l"

XVC[N[ XVC]NE[M

<" Xvc}ne{m Alxcvlb En~lbolb

Xvc{n{ xvc}ne{m jmi~alm jlvm alxcvlb alfl v~om! jmme~zm bnvlkl jlb alxcvlb lv~{ el{"

l" Xvc}ne{m Alxcvlb Alfl V~om

Xvc{n{ xvc}ne{m jmi~alm jnbolb xnvz~if~dlb xnb`~lalb }lbo jmdlvlxelb" Jlali

kcbzcd mbm jmo~blelb zvnb dm{zcvm{ ~bz~e inixvnjme{m zmboelz xnb`~lalb jm il{l

jnxlb" Lblam{m{ anfmd vmbkm inamflzelb mbgcvil{m ne{znvbla {nxnvzm0

… Zmboelz lezmmzl{ necbcim ilevc }lbo jmdlvlxelb" Elvnbl xnifnamlb xnalboolb

jmxnbolv~dm cand zmboelz xnbodl{malb xvmfljm }lbo fm{l jmfnalb`lelb $xnv{cbla

jm{xc{lfan mbkcin-! lblam{m{ inbome~mz{nvzlelb n{zmil{m }lbo znvelmz jnbolb

xnvz~if~dlb necbcim xljl ~i~ib}l jlb xnvz~if~dlb xnb`~lalb nknvlb xljl



ed~{~{b}l" [nflolm kcbzcd! fmal necbcim iniflme! jlxlz jmxvc}ne{melb ljlb}l

enblmelb xnb`~lalb jmflbjmboelb xnb`~lalb zld~b ala~"

… Xnzl xnv{lmbolb! Lxleld `~iald xn{lmbo fnvzlifld3 Lzl~! lxleld xn{lmbo }lbo anfmd

anild inbodnbzmelb cxnvl{mb}l3 Xnv~fldlb xnzl xnv{lmbolb lelb ininbolv~dm

xvc}ne{m lzl{ ~bmz xnb`~lalb il~x~b enilix~lb xnv~{ldllb ~bz~e inblmeelb dlvol"

Enj~l dla znv{nf~z lelb fnvjlixle xljl xnvz~if~dlb"

… Fl~vlb zcec flv~ jlb zcec alil" Zcec flv~ ~i~ib}l inbmeilzm enblmelb xnb`~lalb

}lbo anfmd fn{lv jmflbjmboelb jnbolb zcec alil elvnbl zcec flv~ jlxlz invlmd xl{lv

}lbo zmjle znvzlbolbm jnbolb flme lzl~ inb}njmlelb ecixc{m{m flvlbo znvembm

jmflbjmboelb jnbolb xn{lmbo }lbo ljl" Zcec alil ~i~ib}l z~if~d {nmvmbo jnbolb

zmboelz xnvz~if~dlb necbcim ackla {nklvl en{na~v~dlb" Elvnblb}l! lblam{m{ dlv~{

inixnvzmiflboelb vnbklbl ne{xlb{m }lbo jm~i~ielb cand ilbl`ninb"

Alxcvlb Alfl V~om Zlvonz Kcvxcvlzmcb

688< 6888 <===

Xnb`~lalb fnv{md *;="444 *;7"=8; *;;"?86

Dlvol xcece xnb`~lalb 6?"6:7 6>"6=> 6;"86=

Alfl eczcv <6"7:6 <<"784 <8"7?;

Fnflb xnb`~lalb ~i~i jlb ljimbm{zvl{m 4"44; 4"<=8 ?":=8

Fnflb xnb}~{~zlb jlb licvzm{l{m <"8?= =:8 4>:

Fnflb f~bol :7: :6> ;=;

Alfl {nfna~i xl`le 6"6<7 6"8>; <"=;7

Fnflb Xl`le 4:6 ?4= ?><

Env~omlb jlvm xc{ a~lv fml{l jlb cxnvl{m jlali

Xnbodnbzmlb 7 8 :<

Alfl fnv{md * <";74 * <"67: * <"<::

[ldli fnvnjlv =8> 4=4 =<6



Fnfnvlxl vl{mc znvxmamd

Xnvz~if~dlb xnb`~lalb 4"8=. =">8. ="=<.

Ilvomb alfl eczcv ;<"7= ;<":7 ;<"7?

Fnflb xnb`~lalb ~i~i! jlb ljimbm{zvl{m

# Xnb`~lalb 66"6? 66"<= 66"66

Fnflb xnb}~{~zlb # lezml znzlx eczcv zld~b

{nfna~ib}l 7"4> 7"48 7"?8

Fnflb f~bol # ~zlbo `lboel xlb`lbo zld~b

{nfna~ib}l ?!<> 4!:? 4!;>

Xl`le xnbodl{malb # alfl {nfna~i xl`le ;4!88 ;4!:; ;4!?=

Xnb`~lalb xnv~{ldllb z~if~d lbzlvl 4. jlb =">. xnv zld~b" Emzl l{~i{melb fldwl

xnb`~lalb lellb z~if~d {nfn{lv 4"8=. jm zld~b 688<" [nznald xvc}ne{m {nan{lm! lblam{m{

{nb{mzmmzl{ lelb inixnal`lvm mixamel{m zmboelz xnvz~if~d}lb }lbo anfmd zmboom jlb anfmd

vnbjld znvdljlx vlilalb"

Ilvomb alfl eczcv xnv~{ldllb znzlx {zlfma ;<">.);<"?. jlvm xnb`~lalb" ^bz~e z~`~lb

xvc}ne{m! jml{~i{melb ilvomb alfl eczcv znvflv~ {nfn{lv ;<"7=." Fnflb xnb`~lalb!

~i~i! jlb ljimbm{zvl{m `~ol znzlx {nfn{lv e~vlbo jlvm 66. jlvm xnb`~lalb" Xvc}ne{m

fnflb xnb`~lalb! ~i~i! jlb ljimbm{zvl{m ljlald {nfn{lv 66!6?. jlvm xnb`~lalb! {lil

jnbolb xnv{nbzl{n zld~b ala~"

Fnflb xnb}~{~zlb inv~xlelb xc{ ilznvmla jlb dlv~{ jmxvc}ne{melb {nklvl znvxm{ld"

Xnb}~{~zlb inv~xlelb fnflb znzlx jlb inv~xlelb g~bo{m jlvm `~iald lezml }lbo

jm{~{~zelb" Zld~b)zld~b {nfna~ib}l! xnv~{ldllb inalxcvelb fnflb xnb}~{~zlb emvl)

emvl 7"4>. jlvm {lajc lezml znzlx zld~b 688<"

Jnbolb klvl }lbo {lil ! jmdmz~bo vl{mc dm{zcvm{ fnflb f~bol znvdljlx {lajc lwla zld~b

~zlbo fnvf~bol" Vl{mc znv{nf~z flv~)flv~ mbm z~v~b jlvm 4":?. inb`ljm ?"<>. jm{nflfelb

znv~zlil cand xmb`lilb flv~ jlb xnvxlb`lbolb xmb`lilb jnbolb zmboelz f~bol }lbo

anfmd vnbjld" Xvc}ne{m inbol{~i{melb fnflb f~bol {nfn{lv ?"<>. jlvm {lajc lwla zld~b

~zlbo fnvf~bol" Xljl xvlezmeb}l! l{~i{m dlv~{ inb}nvzlelb xvc}ne{m zmboelz f~bol

`lboel xlb`lbo jm il{l jnxlb" Ledmvb}l! lboel }lbo jmo~blelb ~bz~e xvc}ne{m lzl{

fnflb xl`le! {nflolm xnv{nbzl{n znvdljlx alfl {nfna~i xl`le zld~b ala~! z~v~b inb`ljm;4."



Fnvme~z mbm ljlald alboeld)alboeld jlali inixvc}ne{melb alxcvlb znv{nf~z0

<" Xnb`~lalb0 *:;"<<> 9 *;="444 t <!848=

6" Alfl eczcv0 *<;"77> 9 *:;"<<> t ;<!7=.

;" Dlvol xcece xnb`~lalb0 *6=":>8 9 *:;"<<> ) * <;"77>

:" Xnb`~lalb! ~i~i! jlb ljimbm{zvl{m0 *="786 9 *:;"<<> t 66!6?.

>" Xnb}~{~zlb0 *<"67; 9 *<4"::6 $lezml znzlx eczcv lwla xnvmcjn-t 7!4>.

7" F~bol *>?4 9 *4"844 $~zlbo fnvf~bol lwla xnvmcjn- t ?!<>.

?" Alfl {nfna~i xl`le0 *6"666 9 *<;"77> ) *="786 ) *<"67; ) *>?4

4" Fnflb xl`le0 *4:: 9 *6"666 t ;4.

=" Xc{ a~lv fml{l jlb cxnvl{m jlali xnbodnbzmlb0 zmjle ljl

<8"Alfl fnv{md0 *<";?4 9 *6"666 ) *4::

Xvc}ne{m Alxcvlb Alfl V~om Zlvonz Kcvxcvlzmcb

Alboeld

Xvc}ne{m

N{zmil{m

Zld~b 6886

Alxcvlb alfl v~om

Xnb`~lalb fnv{md < * :;"<<>

Dlvol xcece xnb`~lalb 6 6=":>8

Alfl eczcv ; <;"77>

Fnflb xnb`~lalb! ~i~i! jlb ljimbm{zvl{m : ="786

Fnflb xnb}~{~zlb jlb licvzm{l{m > <"67;

Fnflb f~bol 7 >?4

Alfl {nfna~i xl`le ? 6"666

Fnflb xl`le 4 4::

Xc{ ‛ xc{ a~lv fml{l jlb cxnvl{m jlali xnbodnbzmlb = 8

Alfl fnv{md <8 *<";?4

[ldli fnvnjlv =8>



L{~i{m Xnvlilalb

Xnvz~if~dlb xnb`~lalb 4!8=.

Ilvomb alfl eczcv ;<!7=

Fnflb xnb`~lalb! ~i~i! jlb ljimbm{zvl{m#Xnb`~lalb 66!6?

Fnflb xnb}~{~zlb#Lezml znzlx eczcv zld~b {nfna~ib}l 7!4>

Fnflb f~bol#^zlbo @lboel xlb`lbo zld~b {nfa~ib}l ?!<>

Xl`le Xnbodl{malb#Alfl {nfna~i xl`le ;4!88

f" Xvc}ne{m Bnvlkl

Bnvlkl xnv~{ldllb Zld~b <=== ‛ 688< fnvme~z fnfnvlxl vl{mc jm{l`melb xvc}ne{m

alxcvlb alfl v~om xnv~{ldllb" Vlilalb bnvlkl zld~b 6886 inamx~zm alboeld ‛ alboeld

fnvme~z mbm 0

<" F~lzald xvc}ne{m lezml albklv {nalmb el{! jnbolb inboo~blelb xvc}ne{m xnb`~lalb

lzl~ dlvol xcece xnb`~lalb jlb vl{mc xnvx~zlvlb }lbo vnanlb"

6" F~lzald xvc}ne{m enblmelb lezml znzlx jnbolb n{zmil{m xnbona~lvlb icjla }lbo

jmjl{lvelb xljl zvnb dm{zcvm{ lzl~ mbgcvil{m jlali flomlb IJ'L jm alxcvlb zld~blb"

;" F~lzald xvc}ne{m enwl m̀flb albklv {nalmb ~zlbo

:" Dmz~boald flomlb albklv ~zlbo `lboel xlb`lbo $flomlb }lbo `lz~d znixc- jlvm klzlzlb

~zlbo `lboel xlb`lbo"

>" ^zlbo `lboel xnbjne almbb}l jml{~i{melb zmjle fnv~fld jlvm zld~b)zld~b

{nfna~ib}l"

7" [lajc lwla ~zlbo `lboel xlb`lbo jml{~i{melb {lil jnbolb ~zlbo `lboel xlb`lbo

zld~b ala~ jme~vlbom flomlb }lbo `lz~d znixc jlvm f~zmv $:- jm lzl{"?" Enwl`mflb `lboel xlb`lbo almbb}l {lil jnbolb {lajc zld~b ala~ enk~lam zlixle `nal{

zvnb }lbo almb"

4" [ldli fml{l lwla jml{~i{melb {lil jnbolb {lajc zld~b ala~"

=" Alfl jmzldlb jml{~i{melb {lil jnbolb {lajc zld~b ala~ jmzlifld $jme~vlbom- jnbolb

alfl $v~om- fnv{md jlb jme~vlbo jmmjnb }lbo jmxnvemvlelb"

<8" Xc{ ne~mzl{ almbb}l jml{~i{melb {lil jnbolb {lajc zld~b ala~ enk~lam zlixle zvnb

}lbo b}lzl"



^bz~e ini~alm xvc}ne{m xm~zlbo! xnv{njmllb! lezml znzlx! ~zlbo ~{ldl! jlb lev~la fnflb

inboo~blelb xvc}ne{m xnb`~lalb jlb dlvol xcece xnb`~lalb {nvzl zmboelz xnvx~zlvlbb}l!

v~i~{b}l 0

~{ldl xm~zlbo[lajc

Xnb̀~lalb ~{ldl xm~zlbo xnvx~zlvlbZmboelz 9

[nalb`~zb}l! xvc}ne{m xm~zlbo ~{ldl jmdmz~bo {nflolm fnvme~z 0

~{ldl xm~zlbo xnvx~zlvlbZmboelz

xnb`~lalbXvc}ne{m ~{ldl xm~zlboXvc}ne{m 9

Bnvlkl Zlvonz Kcvxcvlzmcb

688< 6888 <===

El{ *:== *;>7 *668

Xm~zlbo ;"4;< <"=:< <"?6:

Xnv{njmllb :"::= :"6:4 ;"?=4

Lezml albklv almb 47= ?>= ?:<

Zczla lezml albklv ="7:4 ?";8: 7":4;

Lezml znzlx <4"::6 <>"?>= <;"46:

Le~i~al{m xnb}~{~zlb :"=8= :";:< ;"=6>

Lezml znzlx fnv{md <;">;; <<":<4 ="4==

Lezml zle albklv almbb}l =?; ?74 ?7<

Zczla lezml *6:"<>: *<=":=8 *<?"<:;

^zlbo ~{ldl *:"<78 *;">?7 *;"><:

Flomlb albklv ~zlbo ̀lboel xlb`lbo =8> 4>? :=4

Fnflb lev~la <">77 <">8? <">68

^zlbo xl`le :6; ;7< ;<4

Zczla enwl`mflb albklv ?"8>: 7";8< >"4>8

Xl`le zlboo~dlb jlb enwl`mflb almb <"<>6 <"8;7 =<8



^zlbo `lboel xlb`lbo 4"844 >"7;: :">6<

Zczla enwl`mflb <7"=6: <6"=?< <<"64<

[ldli xvngnvnb 8 8 8

[ldli fml{l ?> ?> ?7

[~vxa~{ icjla <"8=4 =86 ?;8

Alfl jmzldlb 7"74? >">:6 >"8>7

Ne~mzl{ xninolbo {ldli ?"478 7"><= >"476

Zczla enwl`mflb jlb ne~mzl{ fnv{md *6:"<>: *<=":=8 *<?"<:;

Fnfnvlxl Vl{mc Znvxmamd

Zmboelz xnvx~zlvlb xm~zlbo ~{ldl <8!:< <=!8< <=!>>

Zmboelz xnvx~zlvlb xnv{njmllb 7!<6 >!=> 7!87

Zmboelz xnvx~zlvlb ~zlbo ~{ldl 7!>> ?!8? 7!>>

Zmboelz xnvx~zlvlb fnflb lev~la 6>!:? 6:!:= 66!<?

^zlbo xl`le#Fnflb xl`le >8!6:. :>!?>. :6!;:.

Zczla lezml#Ne~mzl{ xninolbo {ldli $anwnvlonen~lbolb-

;!8? 6!== 6!=6

Jmmjnb xnv aniflv {ldli *8!66> *8!6<> *8!6<:

Xnbona~lvlb icjla $KLXNT- *;"<7; *6">64 *<"=<4

Xnbona~lvlb icjla#Xnb`~lalb ?!=;. 7!4>. >!7=.

Zmboelz xnvx~zlvlb xm~zlbo ~{ldl z~v~b jlvm <=!>> jm zld~b <=== inb`ljm <8!:< jm zld~b

688<" Dla znv{nf~z elvnbl jm{nvzlelbb}l xm~zlbo xnv~{ldllb {nfn{lv *488 `~zl }lbo

{nfna~ib}l znald jm`~la xljl ”nbzmzl{ fnvz~`~lb ed~{~{” $ {xnkmla x~vxc{n nbzmz} ‛ [XN -

jlb zmjle jmle~m jm bnvlkl"

Zmboelz xnvx~zlvlb xnv{njmllb fnvem{lv lbzlvl >!=> jlb 7!<6 {nalil zmol zld~b znvledmv"

Elvnbl en{zlfmalb vl{mc znv{nf~z jlb zmjle ljlb}l mbgcvil{m }lbo inbombjmel{melb

xnv~fldlb xnvx~zlvlb znv{nf~z! jmo~blelb zmboelz xnvx~zlvlb }lbo znvflv~ {nfn{lv 7!<6

fnv{lil dlvol xcece xnb`~lalb ~bz~e inixvc}ne{melb xnv{njmllb" Lblam{m{ }lbo anfmdinbjlali lelb iniflbjmboelb zmboelz xnvx~zlvlb xnv{njmllb zcec alil jnbolb zcec



flv~! {nvzl inbolbzm{mxl{m xnvz~if~dlb zcec flv~" Xnv{njmllb {llz mbm jlxlz

jmxvc}ne{melb z~if~d {nmvmbo jnbolb zmboelz xnvz~if~dlb xnb`~lalb }lbo jmxnmemvlelb"

Xnv{njmllb zlifldlb }lbo jmxnva~elb ~bz~e zcec flv~ lelb jmzlifldelb xljl `~iald

znv{nf~z"

Lezml znzlx jmn{zmil{m {nflolm {lajc lezml znzlx eczcv zld~b ala~ jmzlifld xnv{nbzl{n

xnbona~lvlb icjla znvdljlx xnb`~lalb dm{zcvm{" Xnbona~lvlb icjla dm{zcvm{ jmxnvcand jlvm

alxcvlb lv~{ el{" [nalil zmol zld~b znvledmv! xnv{nbzl{n xnbona~lvlb icjla znvdljlx

xnb`~lalb inbmboelz jlvm >!7=. inb`ljm ?!=;." Xnv{nbzl{n znvledmv {nfn{lv ?!=;.

jmo~blelb ~bz~e inbon{zmil{m xnbona~lvlb icjla zld~b 6886" [nznald xvc}ne{m {nan{lm!

xnv{nbzl{n znv{nf~z jlxlz jm{n{~lmelb ~bz~e inamdlz mixamel{m en~lbolb lzl{ xnbona~lvlb

icjla }lbo anfmd zmboom $vnbjld-"

Zmboelz xnvx~zlvlb znvembm {nfn{lv 7!>> jmo~blelb ~bz~e inbon{zmil{m ~zlbo zld~b 6886"

Jnbolb klvl }lbo {lil! xnv{nbzl{n lev~la fnflb znvdljlx xnb`~lalb jmn{zmil{m jnbolb

inboo~blelb zmboelz xnvx~zlvlb lev~la }lbo znvflv~ {nfn{lv 6>!:?" Ledmvb}l! ~zlbo

xl`le jmn{zmil{m fnvjl{lvelb d~f~bolb dm{zcvm{ lbzlvl ~zlbo jnbolb fnflb xl`le" Zmboelz

}lbo znvflv~ {nfn{lv >8!6:. jmo~blelb ~bz~e inixvc}ne{melb ~zlbo xl`le zld~b 6886"

Fnvjl{lvelb l{~i{m)l{~i{m znv{nf~z! xvc}ne{m bnvlkl xnv~{ldllb zld~b 6886 jm{l`melb jmzlixmalb jm flwld mbm" Fnvme~z mbm ljlald alboeld)alboeld jlali inixvc}ne{melb bnvlkl

znv{nf~z0

<" Xm~zlbo0 *:!<:< 9 *:;"<<> $Xnb`~lalb-#<8!:< $Xnvx~zlvlb xm~zlbo-"

6" Xnv{njmllb0 *:!48= 9 *6=!:>8 $Dlvol xcece xnb`~lalb-#7!<6 $Xnvx~zlvlb xnv{njmllb-"

;" Lezml albklv almb0 zmjle fnv~fld"

:" Lezml znzlx0 *6<!47< 9 *<4!::6 $[lajc zld~b ala~- % *;!:<= $N{zmil{m xnbona~lvlb

icjla-"

>" Le~i~al{m xnb}~{~zlb0 *7!<?6 9 *:!=8= $[lajc {nfna~ib}l- % *<!67; $N{zmil{m

xnb}~{~zlb-"

7" Lezml znzlx fnv{md0 *6<!47< ) *7!<?6"

?" Lezml `lboel xlb`lbo almbb}l0 zmjle fnv~fld"

4" ^zlbo ~{ldl0 *6=!:>8 $Dlvol xcece xnb`~l-lb-#7!>> $Xnvx~zlvlb ~zlbo-"

=" Flomlb albklv ~zlbo `lboel xlb`lbo0 `~iald }lbo jmalxcvelb jlali klzlzlb elem

~zlbo `lboel xlb`lbo {nflolm flomlb }lbo `lz~d znixc jm zld~b 6886"

<8" Fnflb lev~la0 *:;"<<> $Xnb`~lalb-#6>!:? $Xnvx~zlvlb fnflb lev~la-"



<<" ^zlbo xl`le0 *4:: $fnflb xl`le- t >8!6:. $^zlbo xl`le#Fnflb xl`le-"

<6" Xl`le zlboo~dlb jlb enwl`mflb almb0 zmjle fnv~fld"

<;" ^zlbo `lboel xlb`lbo0 *4!844 $^zlbo `lboel xlb`lbo zld~b ala~- ) *4=6

<:" Flomlb ~zlbo }lbo `lz~d znixc jlvm f~zmv =-"

<>"[ldli fml{l0 zmjle fnv~fld"

<7" [~vxa~{ icjla0 *<!<<4 9 *<!8=4 % *68 $inbknvimbelb lezmmzl{ N[CX jlb cx{m

{ldli-"

<?" Alfl jmzldlb0 *?!47< 9 *7!74? $Alfl jmzldlb zld~b ala~- % *<!;?4 $Xvc}ne{m alfl

fnv{md- ) *68: $N{zmil{m jmmjnb {nfn{lv *8!66> xnv aniflv {ldli-"

<4" El{0 `~iald }lbo jmxnva~elb ~bz~e inb}nmiflboelb zczla enwl`mflb jlb ne~mzl{

jme~vlbom $a-)$?-"

Xvc}ne{m Bnvlkl Zlvonz Kcvxcvlzmcb

688<

Alboeld

Xnvlilalb

N{zmil{m

6886 Lwla

N{zmil{m 6886

Ledmv

El{ * <== <7 *$<!>?:- * 767

Xm~zlbo ;"4;< < :"<:< :"<:<

Xnv{njmllb :"::= 6 :"48= :"48=

Lezml albklv almb 47= ; 47= 47=

Zczla lezml albklv ="7:4 4"6:> <8"::>

Lezml znzlx <4"<:6 : 6<"47< 6<"47<

Le~i~al{m xnb}~{~zlb :"=8= > 7"<?6 7"<?6

Lezml znalx fnv{md <;">;; 7 <>"74= <>"74=

Lezml zle albklv almbb}l =?; ? =?; =?;

Zczla lezml *6:!<>: *6:!=8? *6?!<8?

^zlbo ~{ldl * :"<78 4 * :":=7 * :":=7

Flomlb albklv ~zlbo ̀lboel xlb`lbo =8> = 4=6 4=6

Fnflb lev~la <">77 <8 <"7=; <"7=;

^zlbo xl`le :6; << :6: :6:

Zczla enwl`mflb albklv ?"8>: ?">8> ?">8>



Xl`le zlboo~dlb jlb enwl`mflb almb <"<>6 <6 <"<>6 <"<>6

^zlbo `lboel xlb`lbo 4"844 <; ?"<=7 =";=7

Zczla enwl`mflb <7"6=: <>"4>; <4"8>;

[ldli fml{l ?> <: ?> ?>

[~vxa~{ icjla <"8=4 <> <"<<4 <"<<4

Alfl jmzldlb 7"74? <> ?"47< ?"47<

Ne~mzl{ xninolbo {ldli ?"478 ="8>: ="8>:

Zczla enwl`mflb jlb ne~mzl{ fnv{md *6:!<>: *6:!=8? *6?!<8?

Fnfnvlxl Vl{mc Znvxmamd

Zmboelz xnvx~zlvlb xm~zlbo ~{ldl <8!:< <8!:<

Zmboelz xnvx~zlvlb xnv{njmllb 7!<6 7!<6

Zmboelz xnvx~zlvlb ~zlbo ~{ldl 7!>> 7!>>

Zmboelz xnvx~zlvlb fnflb lev~la 6>!:? 6>!:?

^zlbo xl`le#Fnflb xl`le >8!6:. >8!6:.

Zczla lezml#Ne~mzl{ xninolbo {ldli ;!8? 6!==

Jmmjnb xnv ani flv {ldli *8!66> *8!66>

Xnbona~lvlb icjla $KLXNT- *;!<7; *;!:<=

KLXNT#Xnb`~lalb ?!=;. ?!=;.

k" Xvc}ne{m Alxcvlb Lv~{ El{

Xvc}ne{m alxcvlb lv~{ el{ jm{l`melb xljl zlfna jm flwld mbm" Xvc}ne{m lv~{ el{ fnv{md

jlvm cxnvl{m {nfn{lv *6!:;> `~zl inbjlblm {nflomlb jlvm xnbona~lvlb icjla {nfn{lv

*;":<= `~zl jlb jmmjnb {nfn{lv *68: `~zl" Ene~vlbolbb}l jmz~z~x jnbolb enblmelb

~zlbo `lboel xlb`lbo {nfn{lv *<"6=> `~zl"

Xvc}ne{m Alxcvlb Lv~{ El{ Zlvonz Kcvxcvlzmcb



N{zmil{m Zld~b 6886

Alfl fnv{md *<!;?4

Xnb}n{~lmlb alfl inb`ljm lv~{

el{0

Xnb}~{~zlb <"67;

Xm~zlbo ~{ldl $;<8-

Xnv{njmllb $;78-

^zlbo ~{ldl ;;7

Fnflb lev~la <6?

Xl`le <

Lv~{ el{ fnv{md jlvm lezmmzl{cxnvl{m

6":;>

Xnbona~lvlb icjla $;":<=-

Lv~{ el{ fnv{md jlvm lezmmzl{mbn{zl{m

$;":<=-

^zlbo `lboel xlb`lbo <"6=>

Zlifldlb icjla jm{nzcv 68

Jmmjnb $68:-

Lv~{ el{ fnv{md jlvm lezmmzl{ xnbjlbllb

<"<<<

Xnv~fldlb fnv{md el{ <6?

El{ lwla :==

El{ ledmv * 767

6" Lblam{m{ [nb{mzmmzl{

Xvc}ne{m alxcvlb en~lbolb jmjl{lvelb xljl d~f~bolb }lbo jmdlvlxelb lbzlvl xc{ alxcvlb

alfl v~om jnbolb xc{ bnvlkl" Jlali kcbzcd mbm! jmo~blelb vl{mc }lbo znvledmv elvnbl cxnvl{m

xnv~{ldllb k~e~x {zlfma jlb jml{~i{melb zmjle znvjlxlz xnv~fldlb fn{lv jlali {zvlznom

cxnvl{m"



Bli~b l{~i{m)l{~i{m znv{nf~z jlxlz jmlvml{melb ~bz~e inbolblam{m{ jlixleb}l xljl

enf~z~dlb jlbl! xnboniflamlb lezml jlb ne~mzl{! jlb {nflolmb}l" [nflolm kcbzcd

xnv{nbzl{n xnbona~lvlb icjla znvdljlx xnb`~lalb xnv~{ldllb blme fnvzldlx jlvm >!7=. zmol

zld~b }lbo ala~ inb`ljm ?!=;. zld~b ala~" @mel jml{~i{melb enblmelb }lbo {lil jm zld~b

6886 inb`ljm =.! xnbona~lvlb icjla lelb blme inb`ljm *;!4; imamlv! }lbo ininva~elb

jlbl zlifldlb {nfn{lv *>88 `~zl" Enblmelb }lbo {lil `~ol jlxlz fnvl{la jlvm xnb~v~blb

xnvx~zlvlb xm~zlbo jlb xnvx~zlvlb xnv{njmllb" Lblam{ {nvmbo elam inb}mlxelb fnfnvlxl

xvc}ne{m ~bz~e inbo~`m {enblvmc znvflme $znvf~v~e- {nflolm zlifldlb lzl{ {enblvmc }lbo

/xlambo i~boemb/ $ic{z amena}- znv`ljm" Lblam{m{ {nb{mzmmzl{ mbm inb~b`~eelb l{~i{m ilbl

}lbo inimamem jlixle xlambo fn{lv xljl dl{ma en~lbolb jlb! {nflolm ecb{ne~nb{mb}l!

iniflbz~ mjnbzmgmel{m lvnl }lbo ininva~elb xninvme{llb anfmd alb`~z"

LXAMEL[M LBLAM[M[ XVC[XNEZMG JLALI ICJNA

XNBMALMLB ALFL)[M[L

Icjna xnbmalalb alfl {m{l inbnbz~elb bmalm ne~mzl{ xljl {llz z {nflolm `~iald bmalm f~e~ embm jlb

bmalm {nelvlbo alfl {m{l }lbo jmxnvemvlelb jm il{l jnxlb0



jm ilbl FW! inv~xlelb bmalm f~e~ xljl ledmv xnvmcjn z! VMz%b {nflolm alfl {m{l jm xnvmcjn z % b!

jlb e {nflolm fml}l icjla" Alfl {m{l $vn{mj~la" mbkcin- xljl wlez~ z jmjngmbm{melb {nflolm alfl

fnv{md ecixvndnb{mg jme~vlbom xnifnflblb xljl bmalm f~e~ lwla! }lmz~! VMz 9 BMz ) $e t FWz)<-"

Xvc{n{ xnbmalmlb ininva~elb n{zmil{m alfl fnv{md jm il{l jnxlb jlb bmalm f~e~ ne~mzl{

xninolbo {ldli" Icjna xnbmalmlb ininva~elb n{zmil{m lzl{ nbli xlvlinznv {nflolm fnvme~z0

… Xnvz~if~dlb xnb`~lalb

… Ilvomb alfl fnv{md $Alfl fnv{md#Xnb`~lalb-"

… Xnvx~zlvlb icjla env`l fnv{md $Xnb`~lalb#Icjla env`l fnv{md-"

… Xnvx~zlvlb lezml znzlx $Xnb`~lalb#Lezml znzlx-"

… Annvlon en~lbolb $Lezml cxnvl{m#Ne~mzl{-"

… Fml}l icjla ne~mzl{"

Kcbzcd jlxlz jmamdlz xljl zlixmalb jm flwld0

<" Xnb`~lalb jmdlvlxelb z~if~d {nfn{lv 4!=. jm zld~b 688< jlb =!<. jm zld~b 6886! eni~jmlb

inb~v~b xljl zmboelz xnvz~if~dlb 4.! ?.! jlb 7. ~bz~e zmol zld~b fnvme~zb}l" Xnvmcjn

amil zld~b mbm inv~xlelb —dcvmpcb xnvlilalb” $gcvnkl{z dcvmpcb-! xnvmcjn wlez~ jm ilbl emzl

inimamem en}lemblb znvzmboom lzl{ n{zmil{m emzl"

6" Ilvomb alfl fnv{md jmdlvlxelb blme inb`ljm =!6. jlb =!:. {nalil j~l zld~b fnvme~zb}l jlb

eni~jmlb fnvzldlb xljl xnv{nbzl{n znv{nf~z"

;" Zmboelz xnvx~zlvlb icjla env`l fnv{md jmdlvlxelb znzlx xljl zmboelz <<!4;

:" Zmboelz xnvx~zlvlb lezml znzlx jmdlvlxelb znzlx xljl zmboelz <!== elam"

>" Annvlon en~lbolb `~ol jmdlvlxelb ecb{zlb xljl zmboelz {nelvlbo {nfn{lv 6!>6 elam"

7" Fml}l icjla ne~mzl{ jmxnvemvlelb {nfn{lv <6!>." $Fml}l icjla ne~mzl{ jmznbz~elb cand

klxmzla l{{nz xvmkmbo icjna UKLXIY -



…

Alfl fnv{md jmn{zmil{m jnbolb inboo~blelb v~i~{ 0Alfl Fnv{md 9 Xnb`~lalb t Ilvomb alfl fnv{md"

… Icjla env`l fnv{md jmn{zmil{m jnbolb inboo~blelb v~i~{0

fnv{mdenv̀ licjla xnvx~zlvlbZmboelz

Xnb`~lalb fnv{mdenv̀ lIcjla 9



… Icjla lezml znzlx jmn{zmil{melb jnbolb inboo~blelb v~i~{ 0

znzlxlezmwl xnvx~zlvlbZmboelz

Xnb̀~lalb znzlxlezmwlIcjla 9

… Ne~mzl{ jmn{zmil{m jnbolb inboo~blelb v~i~{ 0

Anwnvlon

cxnvl{mlezmwlZczla {ldli xninolbone~mzl{Zczla 9

Lezml cxnvl{m 9 Icjla env`l fnv{md % Lezml znzlx

… Alfl {m{l ~bz~e zld~b 688< jmn{zmil{melb jnbolb inboo~blelb v~i~{ 0

[m{l alfl 9 Alfl fnv{md ) $Ne~mzl{ lwla zld~b t Fml}l icjla ne~mzl{-

*7"6?4 9 *4"4>7 ) $ *6876: t 8!<6> -

… Zld~b)zld~b {nznaldb}l jlali dcvmpcb xnvlilalb jmdmz~bo jnbolb klvl }lbo {lil" [nzmlx

zld~b {nalil dcvmpcb xnvlilalb {nalb`~zb}l jmjm{ecbzcelb xljl fml}l icjla ne~mzl{$<6!>.-" [nflolm kcbzcd! glezcv jm{ecbzc ~bz~e zld~b enj~l jmdmz~bo {nflolm fnvme~z0

bbe!e-$<

< XWMG

%

9

… Bmalm {nelvlbo ~bz~e zmlx)zmlx zld~b jlali dcvmpcb xnvlilalb jm̀ ~ialdelb ~bz~e

inbjlxlzelb bmalm {nelvlbo e~i~alzmg {lixlm zld~b 688> {nfn{lv *67";8;" Xvc}ne{m alfl {m{l

jm zld~b 6887 jml{~i{melb z~if~d xljl zmboelz mbgal{m $;!>.-" Bmalm {nelvlbo lb~mzl{ mbm!

jmjm{ecbzcelb en zld~b 6888 ljlald0

bbe-mbg"-$<)$e

<GWXW

%

9



… N{zmil{m bmalm {ldli [}imbnt Kcvx" xljl zld~b 6888 0

bmalm f~e~ ne~mzl{ xninolbo {ldli % bmalm {nelvlbo alfl {m{l

$*68"76:- % $*67";8; % *>:"8;=- 9 *<88"=77"

… Jnbolb {ldli fnvnjlv {nflb}le <"?;? aniflv! bmalm xnv aniflv {ldli [}imbnt Kcvx" ljlald

*>4!<;"

ZVNB XNBOONVLE BMALM

Icjna alfl {m{l inbnbz~elb dlvol {ldli {nflolm bmalm f~e~ ne~mzl{ xninolbo {ldli jmzlifld

bmalm {nelvlbo jlvm —alfl {m{l” $vn{mj~la mbkcin‚VM- }lbo jmxnvemvlelb! jm ilbl VMz 9 BMz ) $e t

FWz)<-" Alfl {m{l `~ol jlxlz jmb}lzlelb jlali fnbz~e vl{mc! }lmz~

jmilbl VCN 9 BMz#FWz)<" Fnbz~e mbm inbnelbelb enb}lzllb fldwl dlvol {ldli fnv~fld dlb}l

fmal VCN ≨ e" Jlali en{nmiflbolb! znelblb ecixnzm{m lelb inbjcvcbo zmboelz xnboniflamlb

$VCN- inbjnelzm fml}l $e- {ndmbool alfl lfbcvila lelb dmalbo" Jnbolb jnimemlb n{zmil{m

dlvol {ldli ljlald {nfn{lv xvc}ne{m xniflamelb VCN xljl bmalm `lboel xlb`lbob}l flom

xnv~{ldllb jlb mbj~{zvm znvznbz~"

Xniflamelb VCN



Zlixmalb jm lzl{ mbm inb}l m̀elb embnv`l VCN ~bz~e e~mbzma xnv~{ldllb" Ovlgme inb}l`melb bmalm

injmlb zmlx xcvzcgcamc" Dl{ma xnbolilzlb }lbo znvamdlz ljlald0

<" VCN knbjnv~bo ~bz~e eniflam en en{nmiflbolb `lboel xlb`lbo" Dla mbm inbknvimbelb

znelblb ecixnzm{m" Anfmd alb`~z! zmboelz xniflamelb flom xnv~{ldllb }lbo xlambo zmjle

inbo~bz~boelb anfmd fn{lv jlvmxljl zmboelz xniflamelb xnv~{ldllb }lbo xlambo

inbo~bz~boelb" Jlb ledmvb}l! zmboelz xniflamelb flom xnv~{ldllb }lbo inimamem zmboelz

VCN }lbo xlambo ne{zvni ljlald anfmd fn{lv jlvmxljl zmboelz xniflamelb flom xnv~{ldllb

}lbo inimamem zmboelz VCN anfmd icjnvlz"

6" Xniflamelb zmjle anboelx" ]lmz~! znzlx znvjlxlz xnvfnjllb {nemzlv <6. lbzlvl xnv~{ldllb

jnbolb VCN znvzmboom jlb xnv~{ldllb jnbolb VCN znvnbjld in{emx~b {nznald <8 zld~b" Dla

mbm i~boemb jm{nflfelb cand j~l dla0 xnvfnjllb vm{mec }lbo znvknvimb jlali xnvfnjllb

fml}l icjla $e-5 lzl~! zmboelz ecb{nvlzm{in }lbo anfmd zmboom $vnbjld- jlalmb enfm`lelb

le~bzlb{m"

Ovlgme jm lzl{ inb}lzlelb fldwl {nflomlb xniflamelb {nan{lm {nznald {nemzlv > zld~b" Dla mbm

inbj~e~bo xnboo~bllb dcvmpcb xnvlilalb > zld~b flom xnv~{ldllb znv{nf~z elvnbl zmjle znvjlxlz jlixle fn{lv xljl dlvol {ldli {nznald zmzme jm ilbl VCN 9 e! znvanxl{ jlvm l{~i{m

zmboelz xnvz~if~dlb xnb`~lalb"

VCN jmlboolx {nflolm xnboonvle bmalm $la~n jvmnv- elvnbl VCN inv~xlelb lvmlfna }lbo

ininbolv~dm dlvol {ldli {nklvl albo{~bo" [nalb`~zb}l ecixcbnb VCL jmxnkld inb`ljm

ilvomb alfl jlb xnvx~zlvlb" Ecixcbnb) ecixcbnb znv{nf~z `~ol inv~xlelb xnboonvle bmalm"



Xniflamelb Ilvomb Alfl Fnv{md

Zlixmalb jm lzl{ mbm inb}l`melb ovlgme znbzlbo xniflamelb ilvomb alfl fnv{md ~bz~e e~mbzma

xnv~{ldllb" Ovlgme mbm jmf~lz jnbolb klvl }lbo {lil jnbolb xnif~lzlb ovlgme VCN" Zlixle

`nal{ zmboelz xniflamelb }lbo {mobmgmelb ~bz~e xnv~{ldllb jnbolb ilvomb alfl fnv{md $bnz xvcgmz

ilvomb‚BXI- znvzmboom jlb znvnbjld" [nalmb mz~! zmboelz xniflamelb ~bz~e xnv~{ldllb jnbolb

alfl znvnbjld anfmd fn{lv jlvmxljl zmboelz xniflamelb xnv~{ldllb }lbo xlambo ~bz~bo" Zmboelz

xniflamelb ~bz~e j~l enacixce ne{zvni xnv~{ldllb znv{nf~z anfmd fn{lv jlvmxljl zmboelz

xniflamelb xnv~{ldllb jnbolb alfl }lbo anfmd icjnvlz" Jlb ledmvb}l! znzlx znvjlxlz {nam{md

lbzlvl xcvzcgcamc jnbolb ilvomb alfl fnv{md znvzmboom jlb znvnbjld xljl ledmv <8 zld~b! }lbo

fn{lvb}l e~vlbo anfmd {lil jnbolb {nam{md ~bz~e VCN" Xniflamelb VCN zlixleb}l jm{nflfelb

cand xniflamelb jlali ilvomb alfl fnv{md"

Xniflamelb Xnvx~zlvlb Zczla Lezml

Xnvx~zlvlb zczla lezml $zczla l{{nz z~vbcnv‚ZLZ- inv~xlelb ecixcbnb enj~l jlali VCL"

Jlali zlixmalb jm lzl{ mbm jm{l`melb zmboelz xniflamelb xnvx~zlvlb zczla lezml }lbo jmf~lz



jnbolb klvl }lbo {lil jnbolb ovlgme znvjld~a~" _lal~x~b zlixle ljlb}l xniflamelb!

zmboelzb}l anfmd enkma jlvm zmboelz xniflamelb ~e~vlb xvcgmzlfmamzl{" [nalmb mz~! znvjlxlz zmboelz

xnvx~zlvlb lezml }lbo fnvlvml{m lbzlvl xnv~{ldllb jnbolb xnvx~zlvlb znvzmboom jlb znvnbjld"

Dla mbm inbknvimbelb zmboelz mbznb{mzl{ icjla"

Xljl {llz xnif~lzlb n{zmil{m! xvc}ne{m ilvomb alfl jlb zmboelz xnvx~zlvlb xnva~

inixnvzmiflboelb xcal xniflamelb }lbo ~i~i jlb zmboelz xnboonvle bmalm jlvm vlzl)vlzl

`lboel xlb`lbob}l" Anfmd alb`~z! jmxnva~elb xnvdlzmlb lzl{ elvleznvm{zme mbj~{zvm {nflolmilbl

jmz~b`~eelb cand zlixmalb fldwl znvjlxlz xnvfnjllb xljl ilvomb alfl fnv{md" Jlb ledmvb}l

dcvmpcb xvc}ne{m zmjle xnva~ znvala~ xlb`lbo elvnbl lelb inbo~vlbom en}lemblb lzl{ xvc}ne{m

jlb VCN knbjnv~bo eniflam inbjnelz en fml}l icjla {nalil xnvmcjn wlez~ }lbo vnalzmg

xnbjne"

XNVLILALB @LBOEL XNBJNE

^bz~e lblam{m{ ame~mjmzl{ `lboel xnbjne! {lald {lz~ lalz }lbo fnvo~bl ljlald xnvlilalb el{

`lboel xnbjne ${dcvz)znvi kl{d gcvnkl{zmbo-" Xnvlilalb el{ `lboel xnbjne jmimblzm cand

xnboo~bl mbznvbla {nxnvzm ilbl`nv jlb l~jmzcv ~bz~e inbonla~l{m lezmmzl{ cxnvl{m xnv~{ldllb

{llz mbm jlb il{l jnxlb" Xnvlilalb mbm `~ol jmimblzm cand xnboo~bl ne{znvbla {nxnvzm evnjmzcv

`lboel xnbjne o~bl inbmalm enilix~lb xnv~{ldllb ~bz~e ina~bl{m ~zlbo `lboel xnbjne"

Lblam{m{ mbm inbnelbelb xljl xnvlilalb el{ `lboel xnbjne {llz enilix~lb xnv~{ldllb ~bz~e

ininb~dm enwl`mflb `lboel xnbjneb}l jmvlo~elb" Enle~vlzlb xnvlilalb lv~{ el{ fnvflbjmbo

znvflame jnbolb dcvmpcb xnvlilalb ‚ilemb alil xnvmcjn xnvlilalb! ilemb fnve~vlbo

enlbjlalb xnvlilalb znv{nf~z" Dla mbm jm{nflfelb `~iald jlb ecixane{mzl{ glezcv) glezcv }lbo

ininbolv~dm lv~{ el{ il{~e jlb lv~{ el{ ena~lv }lbo zmjle jlxlz jmn{zmil{m {nklvl lbjla jlali

`lboel xlb`lbo" Jlali xnvlilalb `lboel xnbjne x~b! jmxnva~elb mbgcvil{m }lbo `~ialdb}l

{mobmgmelb" Elvnbl xnvlilalb lv~{ el{ fnvolbz~bo xljl mbgcvil{m }lbo znv{njml flom x~fame!

z~`~lb lblam{ mbm ljlald xnvlilalb }lbo k~e~x le~vlz" Jnbolb inixnal`lvm jlb inif~lz

xnvlilalb lv~{ el{! lblam{m{ lelb inbodl{maelb xlbjlbolb }lbo anfmd a~l{ lzl{ xcal lv~{ el{

xnv~{ldllb"



XCAL LV^[ EL[

Xcal lv~{ el{ xnbzmbo ~bz~e jmxnal`lvm {nfna~i inbo~`m icjna ~bz~e lblam{m{ jlb xvc}ne{m lv~{

el{" El{ jlb {nzlvl el{ ${nalb`~zb}l jm{nf~z ‑el{’- inv~xlelb lezml }lbo xlambo ame~mj" Dlixmv

{na~v~d enx~z~{lb ilbl`ninb ~bz~e inale~elb mbn{zl{m lezml lzl~ inifl}lv fnflb

ininva~elb el{" Dla mbm inb}nflfelb ilbl`ninb anfmd fnvgce~{ xljl el{ jlvmxljl ecb{nx

jlbl ame~mj almbb}l" Fnfnvlxl xnboo~bl ${nxnvzm evnjmzcv- eljlbo elal inbolboolx leml {nxnvzm

xm~zlbo jlb xnv{njmllb {nflolm flomlb jlvm lezml }lbo ame~mj inbombolz xc{ znv{nf~z lelb

znvecbnv{m inb`ljm el{ jlali wlez~ jnelz"

El{ }lbo jmimamem zmjle inbodl{maelb lzl~ dl{mab}l enkma! jlb jlali {mz~l{m enblmelb dlvol! el{

${nxnvzm {ni~l lezml icbnznv- inbodljlxm xnb~v~blb jl}l fnam" Bli~b jnimemlb! el{ inimamemvm{mec }lbo xlambo enkma" Ilbl`ninb fnvzlboo~bo`lwlf lzl{ enx~z~{lb ~bz~e mbn{zl{m el{ jlali

fnbz~e lezml lzl~ ~bz~e inifl}lv fml}l" Ecbnv{m el{ mbm inbmboelzelb vm{mec elvnbl

xni~amdlb el{ jlvm lezmmzl{)lezmmzl{ znv{nf~z {mglzb}l e~vlbo xl{zm" Znvjlxlz fnvloli `nbm{ jlb

zmboelz vm{mec }lbo znvelmz jnbolb ecbnv{m el{ znv{nf~z" [nflolm kcbzcd! vm{mec ecbnv{m el{

inb`ljm mbn{zl{m {ninbzlvl `lboel xnbjne anfmd vnbjld jlvmxljl vm{mec ecbnv{m el{ inb`ljm

lezml `lboel xlb`lbo {nxnvzm xlfvme jlb xnvlalzlb" Mbn{zl{m el{ jlali lezml lzl~ fml}l ~bz~e

inboniflboelb jlb inil{lvelb xvcj~e flv~ inimamem vm{mec xni~amdlb inb`ljm el{ }lbo

anfmd zmboom" Ame~mjmzl{ `lboel xnbjne il~x~b {calfmamzl{ `lboel xlb`lbo fnvolbz~bo xljl

xni~amdlb jlb enilix~lb vnlam{l{m xnbona~lvlb el{"

Lv~{ el{ il{~e jlb lv~{ el{ ena~lv znvelmz {lz~ {lil almb" Enololalb {lald {lz~ l{xne lezmmzl{

fm{bm{ xnv~{ldllb lelb fnvjlixle xljl en{na~v~dlb {m{zni lv~{ el{" Enololalb xnb`~lalb

fnvjlixle xljl ecbnv{m xnv{njmllb inb`ljm xm~zlbo jlb el{! inbolemflzelb xnb~v~blb

enznv{njmllb el{! enzmjleilix~lb xnv~{ldllb ~bz~e inboolbzm el{ jlvm {~ifnv {nxnvzm ne~mzl{!

xmb`lilb! jlb ~zlbo ~{ldl jlxlz inbodliflz lezmmzl{ xvcj~e{m jlb inv~omelb xnb`~lalb jm

il{l jnxlb" [nflameb}l! iniflzl{m xnbona~lvlb xljl xc{ {nxnvzm mealb jlb xnil{lvlb jlxlz

inixnvaliflz ecbnv{m xnv{njmllb inb`ljm xm~zlbo jlb el{" Xniflzl{lb `lboel xlb`lbo lzl{

lv~{ el{ ena~lv lzl{ lv~{ el{ il{~e jlxlz inb~v~belb {calfmamzl{ xnv~{ldllb"

Enznvelmzlb lbzlvl lv~{ el{! lev~la! jlb alfl dlv~{ jm{nvzlelb jlali lblam{m{" [llz xnv{njmllb

flvlbo `ljm }lbo inv~xlelb le~i~al{m flb}le fml}l jlb fnflb jm`~la! ilvomb alfl xnv~{ldllb

inbodl{maelb lv~{ il{~e jlbl ame~mj inala~m xm~zlbo jlb el{" Ilemb zmboom ilvomb alfl! ilemb

fn{lv xnvz~if~dlb jlbl ame~mj" Alfl znv~zlil fnvl{la jlvm {nam{md lbzlvl xnb`~lalb jlb dlvol



xcece xnb`~lalb $alfl eczcv- jlb inimamem jlixle }lbo fnvloli lzl{ lv~{ el{" Flb}le fml}l!

{nxnvzm fml}l }lbo fnvl{la jlvm xnboo~bllb lezml znzlx lzl~ fnflb }lbo jmzlboo~delb! zmjle

ininva~elb xnifl}lvlb el{" [lil dlab}l jnbolb xc{ {nxnvzm xnb`~lalb zlbld {nklvl kmkmalb

`lboel xlb`lbo }lbo inbodl{maelb xm~zlbo zle albklv }lbo iniflzl{m vnanlb{m lev~la flom lv~{

el{! ~e~vlb)~e~vlb znv{nf~z dlv~{ jmo~blelb {nklvl znxlz jlali lblam{m{ ~bz~e inbmalm xcal lv~{

el{"

Lv~{ el{ inimamem enznvflzl{lb jlali {lz~ dla xnbzmbo" [llz xnv~{ldllb inixnvcand el{ il{~e!

ilbl`ninb inimamem wnwnblbo ~bz~e inbnbz~elb xnboo~bllbb}l" Xmamdlb xnboo~bllbb}l

znvolbz~bo xljl ecimzinb xnifl}lvlb {nxnvzm jmmjnb! le~i~al{m xnv{njmllb! xnbona~lvlb

icjla! lzl~ xnifl}lvlb ~zlbo" Lv~{ el{ `~ol fnvolbz~bo xljl enilix~lb xnv~{ldllb ~bz~e

inbjlxlzelb jlbl jlvm fnvflolm {~ifnv {nxnvzm ne~mzl{ jlb ~zlbo" Ilbl`ninb inimamem

wnwnblbo fn{lv lzl{ xnboo~bllb lv~{ el{ il{~e }lbo zmjle jmecimzinbelb $jm{nf~z {nflolm

lv~{ el{ fnfl{-" Ecixcbnb lv~{ el{ fnfl{ mbm xnbzmbo jlb inb`ljm xnvdlzmlb ed~{~{ jlali

lblam{m{"

XNBZMBOB]L XNVLILALB XNB@^LALB

Enbjlal xnvlilalb alfl fnvolbz~bo xljl e~lamzl{ xnvlilalb xnb`~lalb" Xnvlilalb xnb`~lalb

inamx~zm lblam{m{ lzl{0

… Lvld jlb zvnb xnb`~lalb

… Xlbo{l xl{lv

… Ecbjm{m mbj~{zvm jlb necbcim

… Elxl{mzl xvcj~e{m jlb en~lbolb

… Glezcv ecixnzm{m

XNVLILALB LV^[ EL[ JNBOLB LBLAM[M XVC GCVIL

Enwl`lvlb jlb enal}lelb vlilalb el{ `lboel xnbjne fml{lb}l jm~`m jnbolb alxcvlb en~lbolb

xvc gcvil $xvc gcvil gmblbkmla {zlzninbz-" Alxcvlb en~lbolb xvc gcvil jmo~blelb ~bz~e

inbodmz~bo vl{mc en~lbolb jlb inb}mix~aelb d~f~bolb almbb}l! jlb jmflbjmboelb jnbolb



jlzl dm{zcvmn{ ~bz~e inbo~`m enal}lelb" Xnvflbjmbolb mbm dlv~{ inb}nvzlelb xnb}n{~lmlb ~bz~e

dla)dla }lbo jmxnvemvlelb inixnbolv~dm {nalil xnvmcjn }lbo jmvlilaelb"

Alxcvlb xvc gcvil znv{nf~z dlv~{ jm~`m {nklvl evmzm{ jlb jm~`m enal}lelbb}l lzl{ vlilalb jlb

l{~i{m)l{~i{mb}l" Vl{mc jlb d~f~bolb }lbo jm{mix~aelb jlali alxcvlb en~lbolb xvc gcvil

dlv~{ jmnla~l{m jlb jmflbjmboelb jnbolb vl{mc dm{zcvm{ ~bz~e inbnbz~elb enwl`lvlb jlb

enal}lelbb}l"

Znv{njml xvcovli {xvnlj{dnnz nanezvcbme ~bz~e iniflbz~ lblam{m{ xvc gcvil" Eni~jldlb

inv~fld lvmlfan ~bz~e ~`m {nb{mzmmzl{ inbmboelzelb ilbgllz alxcvlb xvc gcvil" bli~b

jnimemlb! eni~jldlb jlb gane{mfnamzl{ xvcovli {ndlv~{b}l zmjle vlbk~ jnbolb xnva~b}l

inboniflboelb jlb inbo~`m n{zmil{m jlb l{~i{m }lbo inbjl{lvm" Enwl`lvlb n{zmil{m jlb

l{~i{m xnbzmbo! fnvme~z ilbgllz lblam{m znv{nf~z fnvolbz~bo xljl nla~l{m evmzm{ jlb xnbmalmlb

emzl! f~elb fnvolbz~bo xljl znebcacom"

XLBJ^LB @L_LFLB XLBJLBOLB LBLAM[M[

Xmlalbo {ldli

Xnvfljllb lbzlvl vlilalb lv~{ el{ jnbolb alfl fna~i znbz~ xna~ jmedlwlzmvelb" Flb}le

xnv~{ldllb }lbo {njlbo z~if~d inbolalim lv~{ el{ xc{mzmg vnbjld lzl~ zmjle ljl {lil {nelam

jlali wlez~ jnelz" Lv~{ el{ `lboel xnbjne }lbo vnbjld mbm znbz~ {l`l jmdlvlxelb inbodl{maelb

lv~{ el{ jm lzl{ vlzl)vlzl xljl il{l jnxlb" Lblam{m{ dlv~{ inamdlz ecixcbnb)ecixcbnb lv~{ el{

il~x~b alfl ~bz~e ini~z~{elb mbn{zl{m jlali {ldli xnvjlbl xnv~{ldllb"

Xnifnvm xmb`lilb

Alboeld lwla jlali xnifnvmlb xmb`lilb ljlald inbnvmil lzl~ inbcale xnb`nal{lb ilbl`ninb

lzl{ alxcvlb xnb`~lalb" @mel xnb`nal{lb inbn`ninb zmjle jmj~e~bo jnbolb f~ezm }lbo cf`nezmg!

xnifnvm xmb`lilb dlv~{ inbcale xnvicdcblb xmb`lilb

Bli~b `mel xnb`nal{lb ilbl`ninb jlxlz jm~`m enfnblvlbb}l xnifnvm xmb`lilb jlxlz inbmalm

zmboelz vlilalb xnb`~lalb {nvzl enzmjlexl{zmlbb}l" Lblam{ vlilalb xnb`~lalb dlv~{

inixnvzmiflboelb glezcv necbcim }lbo xnbzmbo znvil{~e xnvimbzllb xnalboolb! ecixnzm{m

mbj~{zvm! fml}l xnil{ce! jlb elxl{mzl{#e~lamzl{ xvcj~e{m xnv~{ldllb"

ANALISIS PROSPEKTIF1

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