ANALISIS-JALUR-Makruf-Akbar (1).pdf

TEKNIK ANALISIS JALUR DAN TERAPANNYA

Maruf Akbar

PROGRAM PASCASARJANA UNIVERSITAS NEGERI JAKARTA

2013

A. PENDAHULUAN TUJUAN PENGGUNAAN ANALISIS JALUR (PATH ANALYSIS)

1. ANALISIS JALUR MERUPAKAN SUATU CARA UNTUK MEMPELAJARI PENGARUH-PENGARUH LANGSUNG DAN TIDAK LANGSUNG SEJUMLAH VARIABEL YANG DIHIPOTESISKAN SEBAGAI VARIABEL SEBAB TERHADAP VARIABEL AKIBAT

(As a method for studying the direct and indirect effects of variables hypothesized as causes of variables treated as effects)

( Sewall Wright dikutip Elazar J. Pedhazur. Multiple Regression in Behavioral Research. New York: Holt, Rinehart and Winston, 1981, p. 580)

2. As was noted above, path analysis is not a method for discovering

causes, but a method applied to a causal model formulated by the researcher on the basis of knowledge and theoretical consideration.

(Elazar J. Pedhazur. Multiple Regression in Behavioral Research. New York: Holt, Rinehart and Winston, 1981, p. 580)

TAMBAHAN

1. Relasi kausal antar variabel dalam model polanya atas dasar kajian sejumlah teoretik

2. Relasi kausal antar variabel: pengaruh langsung, tidak langsung, dan total

3. Relasi bersifat linear dan aditif 4. Relasi bersifat rekursif 5. Tipe variabel dalam model jalur: eksogen

dan endogen

Lanjutan tambahan

6. Skala data minimal interval 7. Model tersusun dalam pola yang utuh

menunjukkan esensi keilmuan peneliti 8. Model tersusun dalam pola yang

berkaitan dengan variabel yang menjadi masalah utama penelitian

9. Model tersusun dengan pilihan-pilihan variabel ada yang baru (menghindari duplikasi)

Lanjutan tambahan 10. Model jalur memberikan kontribusi hasil

riset: a.penjelasan(explanasi), b. kontrol, c. Prediktor

11. Model tidak mengandung relasi antar sejumlah variabel bentuk loop

12. Pengukuran variabel-variabel dalam model hanya memiliki satu unit analisis

13. Susunan variabel dalam model memiliki causal order atas dasar kajian teoretik

CONTOH MODEL PATH

X1

X2

X3

X4

Y

X1

X2

X3

X4

Y

X1

X2

X5

X3

X4

Y

Y

X3

X4

X2

X1

CONTOH

MASALAH TUJUAN PENELITIAN

KINERJA

PENELITIAN KAUSAL

VARIABEL VARIABEL PENYEBAB

DASAR TEORI Joint Effects of Goals and Self-Efficacy on performance (Stephen P. Robbins, and Timothy A. Judge. Organizational Behavior. New

Jersey: Pearson Prentice Hall, 2007, p. 181)

Managers sets difficult, specific goals

for job or task

Individuals sets higher personal (self-set) goal

for their performance

Individuals has higher level of

job or task performance

Individuals has confidence that given level of

performance will be attained

(self-efficacy)

CONTOH MODEL TEORETIK PENELITIAN

X2 X1 Y X3

KINERJA

UPAYA KERJA

(SELF-SET)

KOMUNIKASI INTERPERSONAL

SELF-EFFICACY

ALTERNATIF LAIN MEMBANGUN MODEL TEORETIK PENELITIAN

TEORI SUMBER DESKRIPSI TEORETIK

VARIABEL-VARIABEL

PENGARUH (DE, IE, TE)

PLACEMENT OF THE THEORY

IN QUANTITATIVE STUDIES ONE USES THEORY DEDUCTIVELY AND PLACES IT TOWARD THE BEGINNING OF THE PLAN FOR A STUDY.

IN QUANTITATIVE RESEARCH THE OBJECTIVE IS TO TEST OR VERIFY A THEORY, RATHER THAN TO DEVELOP IT

(JOHN W. CRESWELL. RESEARCH DESIGN QUALITATIVE AND QUANTITATIVE APPROACHES. NEW DEHLI: SAGE PUBLICATIONS, 1994, p.87)

Researcher Test a Theory

Researcher Test Hypotheses or Research Questions Derived from the Theory

Researcher Operationalizes Concepts Or Variables Derived from the Theory

Researcher Uses an Instrument to Measure Variables in the Theory

HUBUNGAN ANTAR VARIABEL 1. KORELASI 2. KAUSAL 3. TIMBAL BALIK (RECIPROCAL) 4. SPURIOUS 5. PENGARUH LANGSUNG DAN TIDAK LANGSUNG

X Y

X Y

X Y

X Y

Z

X1 Y

X2

B. CONTOH ANALISIS

MASALAH PENELITIAN 1. Apakah ada pengaruh langsung komunikasi interpersonal terhadap self-efficay? 2. Apakah ada pengaruh langsung komunikasi interpersonal terhadap upaya kerja? 3. Apakah ada pengaruh langsung self-efficay terhadap upaya kerja? 4. Apakah ada pengaruh langsung self-efficacy terhadap kinerja? 5. Apakah ada pengaruh langsung upaya kerja terhadap kinerja?

HIPOTESIS STATISTIK

1. Ho. : β21 ≤ 0 Hi. : β21 > 0 2. Ho. : β31 ≤ 0 Hi. : β31 > 0 3. Ho. : β32 ≤ 0 Hi. : β32 > 0 4. Ho. : βy2 ≤ 0 Hi. : βy2 > 0 5. Ho. : βy3 ≤ 0 Hi. : βy3 > 0

PILIHAN ANALISIS (SOFTWARE PROGRAM)

1. SPSS 2. LISREL

PILIHAN 1

TAHAPAN: 1. SAJIAN DATA SAMPEL 2. SAJIAN PENGUJIAN PERSYARATAN ANALISIS DATA a. Uji Normalitas Data Galat Taksiran b. Uji Linearitas Regresi 3. Menhitung Koefisien Jalur (Data sampel) a. Manual b. Program 4. MENCARI DAN MENGUJI SIGNIFIKANSI KOEFISIEN JALUR 5. MENCARI BESARAN PENGARUH LANGSUNG, TIDAK LANGSUNG DAN PENGARUH TOTAL 6. PENAFSIRAN

PROSEDUR

1. MEMBUAT PERSAMAAN STRUKTURAL

ε2 X2 ε4 p42 X1 p21 p32 X4 p31 p43 X3 ε3

SELF-EFFICACY


UPAYA KERJA

(SELF-SET)

KINERJA

PERSAMAAN STRUKTURAL

1. p21 X1 X2 X2 = p21X1 + ε2 ε2 2. X2 p32 X1 p31 ε3 X3 = p31X1 + p32X2 + ε3 X3

KOMUNIKASI INTERPERSONAL SELF-EFFICACY


SELF-EFFICACY

UPAYA KERJA

(SELF-SET)

LANJUTAN …

3. y = py2 X2 + py3 X3 + ε4

SELF-EFFICACY

UPAYA KERJA

(SELF-SET)

KINERJA

ε4

py2

py3

X2

X3

MENGHITUNG KOEFISIEN KORELASI ANTAR VARIABEL

Correlations

1 .719** .726** .814**. .000 .000 .000

50 50 50 50.719** 1 .689** .808**.000 . .000 .000

50 50 50 50.726** .689** 1 .771**.000 .000 . .000

50 50 50 50.814** .808** .771** 1.000 .000 .000 .

50 50 50 50

Pearson CorrelationSig. (1-tailed)NPearson CorrelationSig. (1-tailed)NPearson CorrelationSig. (1-tailed)NPearson CorrelationSig. (1-tailed)N

Komunikasi Interpersonal

Self-Efficacy

Upaya Kerja

Kinerja

KomunikasiInterpersonal Self-Efficacy Upaya Kerja Kinerja

Correlation is significant at the 0.01 level (1-tailed).**.

MENGHITUNG KOEFISIEN JALUR

1. X2 = p21X1 + ε2

p21 = 0, 719 (nilai t = 7.174 dan nilai probabilitas (Sig.)=0.000) t = r √ (n-2)/(1 – r2) t tabel = (0.05, dk= n-2) = 1,67 = 0,719 √ (50-2)/(1-0,52) = 7.17

Coefficientsa

14.894 3.830 3.889 .000.667 .093 .719 7.174 .000

(Constant)Komunikasi Interpersonal

Model1

B Std. Error

UnstandardizedCoefficients

Beta

StandardizedCoefficients

t Sig.

Dependent Variable: Self-Efficacya.

LANJUTAN

2. X3 = p31X1 + p32X2 + ε3 Coefficientsa

10.946 3.982 2.749 .008.429 .121 .478 3.533 .001.334 .131 .345 2.555 .014

(Constant)Komunikasi InterpersonalSelf-Efficacy

Model1

B Std. Error


Beta


t Sig.

Dependent Variable: Upaya Kerjaa.

p31 = 0, 478 (nilai t = 3.533 dan nilai probabilitas (Sig.)=0.001) p32 = 0, 345 (nilai t = 2.555 dan nilai probabilitas (Sig.)=0.014)

LANJUTAN

Menghitung nilai t t1 = p31 / √ (1- R2) C11/(n-k-1) =0.478/ √ (1-0.585)(2.07)/(50-2-1) = 3,536 t tabel = (0.05, dk=47) = 1.684 t2 = p32 / √ (1- R2) C11/(n-k-1) =0.345/ √ (1-0.585)(2.07)/(50-2-1) = 2,552 t tabel = (0.05, dk=47) = 1.684

Model Summary

.765a .585 .568 5.69430Model1

R R SquareAdjustedR Square

Std. Error ofthe Estimate

Predictors: (Constant), Self-Efficacy, KomunikasiInterpersonal

a.

1

0.719

0.719

1

1− 2.07

1.488−

1.488−

2.07

=

LANJUTAN

3. y = py2 X2 + py3 X3 + ε4

Coefficientsa

1.457 4.301 .339 .736.645 .126 .526 5.125 .000.517 .130 .408 3.975 .000

(Constant)Self-EfficacyUpaya Kerja

Model1

B Std. Error


Beta


t Sig.

Dependent Variable: Kinerjaa.

py2 = 0, 526 (nilai t = 5.125 dan nilai probabilitas (Sig.)=0.000) py3 = 0, 408 (nilai t = 3.975 dan nilai probabilitas (Sig.)=0.000)

LANJUTAN

Menghitung nilai t

Model Summary

.860a .740 .729 5.71003Model1



Predictors: (Constant), Upaya Kerja, Self-Efficacya.

1

0.689

0.689

1

1− 1.904

1.312−

1.312−

1.904

=

t1 = p42 / √ (1- R2) C11/(n-k-1) =0.526/ √ (1-0.740)(1.904)/(50-2-1) = 5,125 t tabel = (0.05, dk=47) = 1.684 t2 = p43 / √ (1- R2) C11/(n-k-1) =0.408/ √ (1-0.740)(1.904)/(50-2-1) = 3,975 t tabel = (0.05, dk=47) = 1.684

UJI HIPOTESIS

1. Ho. : β 21 ≤ 0 Hi. : β 21 > 0

Coefficientsa

14.894 3.830 3.889 .000.667 .093 .719 7.174 .000

(Constant)Komunikasi Interpersonal

Model1

B Std. Error


Beta


t Sig.

Dependent Variable: Self-Efficacya.

p21 = 0, 719 (nilai t = 7.174 dan nilai probabilitas (Sig.)=0.000) t = r √ (n-2)/(1 – r2) t tabel = (0.05, dk= n-2) = 1,6 = 0,719 √ (50-2)/(1-0,52) = 7.17 Kriteria Penolakan Ho. 1. α =0.05 > p (Sig) tolak Ho. dan α =0.05 < p (Sig) terima Ho 2. t hitung > t tabel, tolak Ho t hitung < t tabel terima Ho Kesimpulan : Tolak Ho, dengan demikian ada pengaruh langsung x1 terhadap x2

LANJUTAN

2. Ho. : β 31 ≤ 0 Hi. : β 31 > 0

Coefficientsa

10.946 3.982 2.749 .008.429 .121 .478 3.533 .001.334 .131 .345 2.555 .014

(Constant)Komunikasi InterpersonalSelf-Efficacy

Model1

B Std. Error


Beta


t Sig.

Dependent Variable: Upaya Kerjaa.


3. Ho. : β 32 ≤ 0 Hi. : β 32 > 0

t1 = p31 / √ (1- R2) C11/(n-k-1) =0.478/ √ (1-0.585)(2.07)/(50-2-1) = 3,536 t tabel = (0.05, dk=47) = 1.684 t2 = p32 / √ (1- R2) C11/(n-k-1) =0.345/ √ (1-0.585)(2.07)/(50-2-1) = 2,552 t tabel = (0.05, dk=47) = 1.684 Kriteria Penolakan Ho. 1. α =0.05 > p (Sig) tolak Ho. dan α =0.05 < p (Sig) terima Ho 2. t hitung > t tabel, tolak Ho t hitung < t tabel terima Ho Kesimpulan : Tolak Ho, dengan demikian ada pengaruh langsung x1 terhadap x3. Dan Tolak Ho. Dengan demikian ada pengaruh langsung x2 terhadap x3

LANJUTAN

4. Ho. : β y2 ≤ 0 Hi. : β y2 > 0

5. Ho. : β y3 ≤ 0 Hi. : β y3 > 0

Coefficientsa

1.457 4.301 .339 .736.645 .126 .526 5.125 .000.517 .130 .408 3.975 .000

(Constant)Self-EfficacyUpaya Kerja

Model1

B Std. Error


Beta


t Sig.

Dependent Variable: Kinerjaa.


t1 = p42 / √ (1- R2) C11/(n-k-1) =0.526/ √ (1-0.740)(1.904)/(50-2-1) = 5,125 t tabel = (0.05, dk=47) = 1.684 t2 = p43 / √ (1- R2) C11/(n-k-1) =0.408/ √ (1-0.740)(1.904)/(50-2-1) = 3,975 t tabel = (0.05, dk=47) = 1.684 Kriteria Penolakan Ho. 1. α =0.05 > p (Sig) tolak Ho. dan α =0.05 < p (Sig) terima Ho 2. t hitung > t tabel, tolak Ho t hitung < t tabel terima Ho Kesimpulan : Tolak Ho, dengan demikian ada pengaruh langsung x2 terhadap x4. Dan Tolak Ho. Dengan demikian ada pengaruh langsung x3 terhadap x4

MENGHITUNG BESARAN PENGARUH RESIDU (ε)

1. p2ε2 = √ 1- 0.517 =0,694 2. p3ε3 = √ 1- 0.585 = 0,644 3. pyε4 = √ 1- 0.740 = 0, 509

Model Summary

.719a .517 .507 6.28094Model1



Predictors: (Constant), Komunikasi Interpersonala.

Model Summary

.765a .585 .568 5.69430Model1



Predictors: (Constant), Self-Efficacy, KomunikasiInterpersonal

a.

Model Summary

.860a .740 .729 5.71003Model1



Predictors: (Constant), Upaya Kerja, Self-Efficacya.

MODEL TEORETIK PENELITIAN DAN HASIL

p2ε2 =0, 694 X2 ε2 ε4 py2=0,526 p4ε4 = 0,504 p21=0,719 p32=0,345 X1 Y p31=0,478 py3 =0,408 ε3 X3 p3ε3 =0,644

SELF-EFFICACY


UPAYA KERJA

(SELF-SET)

KINERJA

MENGHITUNG PENGARUH LANGSUNG, TIDAK LANGSUNG, DAN TOTAL

Pengaruh variabel

Pengaruh Kausal Langsung Melalui X2 Melalui X3 Melalui X2 dan X3 Total

X1->X2 0,719 - - - 0,719 X1->X3 0,478 (0,719)(0,345)=

0,248 - - 0,726

X1->Y - (0,719)(0,526)= 0,378

(0,478)(0,408)= 0,195

(0,719)(0,345)(0,408)= 0,101

0,674

X2->X3 0,345 - - - 0,345 X2->Y 0,526 - - - 0,526 X3->Y 0,408 - - - 0,408

KESIMPULAN

1.Ada pengaruh langsung komunikasi interpersonal terhadap self-efficay 2. Ada pengaruh langsung komunikasi interpersonal terhadap upaya kerja 3. Ada pengaruh langsung self-efficay terhadap upaya kerja 4. Ada pengaruh langsung self-efficacy terhadap kinerja 5. Ada pengaruh langsung upaya kerja terhadap kinerja

2. ALTERNATIF ANALISIS KE DUA DATA MATRIK KOVARIANS

Correlations

1 .719** .726** .814**. .000 .000 .000

4565.680 3044.520 2974.840 4220.920

93.177 62.133 60.711 86.14150 50 50 50

.719** 1 .689** .808**

.000 . .000 .000

3044.520 3923.780 2616.760 3882.380

62.133 80.077 53.403 79.23250 50 50 50

.726** .689** 1 .771**

.000 .000 . .000

2974.840 2616.760 3673.920 3585.960

60.711 53.403 74.978 73.18350 50 50 50

.814** .808** .771** 1

.000 .000 .000 .

4220.920 3882.380 3585.960 5888.980

86.141 79.232 73.183 120.18350 50 50 50

Pearson CorrelationSig. (1-tai led)Sum of Squares andCross-productsCovarianceNPearson CorrelationSig. (1-tai led)Sum of Squares andCross-productsCovarianceNPearson CorrelationSig. (1-tai led)Sum of Squares andCross-productsCovarianceNPearson CorrelationSig. (1-tai led)Sum of Squares andCross-productsCovarianceN

Komunikasi Interpersonal

Self-Efficacy

Upaya Kerja

Kinerja

KomunikasiInterpersonal Self-Efficacy Upaya Kerja Kinerja

Correlation is significant at the 0.01 level (1-tai led).**.

LANJUTAN (Save as Type ketik PATHANL.spl.) muncul

LANJUTAN (KLIK Icon Gb. Orang berlari L) didapat :

LANJUTAN

MODEL TEORETIK PENELITIAN DAN HASIL

X2 ε2 ε4 p42=0,53 p21=0,72 p32=0,35 X1 X4 p31=0,48 p43 =0,41 ε3 X3

SELF-EFFICACY


UPAYA KERJA

(SELF-SET)

KINERJA

LANJUTAN

MODEL TEORETIK PENELITIAN DAN HASIL (t hitung)

X2 ε2 ε4 th= 5,18 th= 7,17 th= 2,58 X1 X4 th=3,57 th = 4,02 ε3 X3

SELF-EFFICACY


UPAYA KERJA

(SELF-SET)

KINERJA

DAFTAR PUSTAKA Elazar J.Pedhazur. Multiple Regression in Behavioral

Research. (New York: CBS College Publishing, 1982) Randall E. Schumacker, Richard G.Lomax. A

Beginner’s Guide to Structural Equation Modeling (New York: Taylor & Francis Group, 2004)

Petter Cuttance. Structural Modeling by Example

Applications in Educational, Sociological, and Behavioral Research (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2009)

SELAMAT MENCOBA

ANALISIS-JALUR-Makruf-Akbar (1).pdf

Documents

Transcript of ANALISIS-JALUR-Makruf-Akbar (1).pdf