1 Peneliti Ekonomi di Grup Riset Ekonomi Bank Indonesia. Pandangan dalam paper … ·...

1 Peneliti Ekonomi di Grup Riset Ekonomi–Departemen Riset Ekonomi dan Kebijakan Moneter (DKM),

Bank Indonesia. Pandangan dalam paper ini merupakan pandangan penulis dan tidak semata-mata mencerminkan pandangan DKM atau Bank Indonesia.

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KKI2 Nama Kelompok Industri Jumlah Perusahaan %

15 Makanan dan Minuman 84 37.33

16 Tembakau 9 4.00

17 Tekstil 11 4.89

18 Pakaian Jadi 1 0.44

19 Kulit dan barang dari kulit 6 2.67

20 Kayu, barang dari kayu, dan anyaman 10 4.44

21 Kertas dan barang dari kertas 5 2.22

22 Penerbitan, percetakan, dan reproduksi 11 4.89

24 Kimia dan barang2 dari bahan kimia 12 5.33

25 Karet dan barang2 dari plastik 26 11.56

26 Barang galian bukan logam 21 9.33

28 Barang2 dari logam dan peralatannya 4 1.78

31 Mesin listrik lainnya dan perlengkapannya 1 0.44

36 Furniture dan industri pengolahan lainnya 24 10.67

225 100.00Total

(3.18)

22

α β

α β

-

23

П

П

П

π

25

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

REER PDB Manufaktur (yoy) - Kanan

Apr

esia

si

Indeks

ApresiasiApresiasi

%

26

Sub Sektor Industri Pengolahan Non Migas Share Ekspor

1) Makanan, Minuman, dan Tembakau 13.86

2) Tekstil, Barang Kulit, dan Alas Kaki 39.70

3) Barang Kayu dan Hasil Hutan Lainnya 48.00

4) Kertas dan Barang Cetakan 25.81

5) Kimia dan Barang dari Karet 27.32

6) Semen dan Barang Galian Bukan Logam 11.79

7) Logam Dasar, Besi dan Baja 16.62

8) Alat Angkutan, Mesin dan Peralatannya 22.71

9) Barang Lainnya 60.43

Total 25.19 5 30 55 80

Industri kimia

Industri alat pengangkutan dan perbaikannya

Industri pupuk dan pestisida

Industri barang dari logam

Industri mesin, alat-alat dan perlengkapan listrik

2008

2005

2000

1995

Kandungan Input Impor pada Outputt

%

27

Tabel II.4 Distribusi Perusahaan berdasarkan Tingkat Profit

Rugi Kecil Sedang Besar

2002 0% 95% 4% 1%

2003 2% 95% 2% 1%

2004 0% 96% 2% 2%

2005 0% 95% 3% 2%

2006 0% 93% 4% 3%

2007 0% 96% 2% 2%

2008 0% 95% 4% 1%

2009 0% 95% 3% 2%

Total 0% 95% 3% 2%

TahunTingkat Profit

28

0

1

2

3

4

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

REER Rasio Profit - Kanan

%Indeks

ApresiasiApr

esia

si

19.64

3.9

-5.71

0.93

20.09

2.4

-5.01-3.72

0

1

2

3

4

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

REER (yoy) Rasio Profit - Kanan

% %

Apr

esia

si

Apresiasi

29

KKI 2 Subsektor Kecil Sedang Besar

15 Makanan dan Minuman 80% 18% 2%

16 Tembakau 22% 33% 44%

17 Tekstil 27% 9% 64%

18 Pakaian Jadi 0% 0% 100%

19 Kulit dan barang dari kulit 67% 33% 0%

20 Kayu, barang dari kayu, dan anyaman 50% 30% 20%

21 Kertas dan barang dari kertas 60% 40% 0%

22 Penerbitan, Percetakan, dan Reproduksi 36% 45% 18%

24 Kimia dan Barang2 dari Bahan Kimia 42% 50% 8%

25 Karet dan Barang2 dari Plastik 50% 31% 19%

26 Barang Galian Bukan Logam 76% 19% 5%

28 Barang2 dari Logam dan Peralatannya 75% 25% 0%

31 Mesin Listrik Lainnya dan Perlengkapannya 0% 0% 100%

36 Furniture dan Industri Pengolahan Lainnya 50% 42% 8%

61% 27% 12%Total

KKI2 Subsektor

15 Makanan dan Minuman 0.13 *** 0.58 ***

16 Tembakau 0.13 * 1.29 ***

17 Tekstil 0.21 *** 0.48 ***

18 Pakaian Jadi -0.03 0.43 **

19 Kulit dan barang dari kulit 0.05 1.33 ***

20 Kayu, barang dari kayu, dan anyaman 0.12 *** 1.20 ***

21 Kertas dan barang dari kertas -0.49 ** 1.06 ***

22 Penerbitan, Percetakan, dan Reproduksi 0.33 *** 0.78 ***

24 Kimia dan Barang2 dari Bahan Kimia 0.05 1.40 ***

25 Karet dan Barang2 dari Plastik 0.14 *** 0.10

26 Barang Galian Bukan Logam -0.01 0.62 ***

28 Barang2 dari Logam dan Peralatannya 0.17 *** 0.74 ***

31 Mesin Listrik Lainnya dan Perlengkapannya -0.02 1.30 ***

36 Furniture dan Industri Pengolahan Lainnya 0.11 ** 0.67 ***

Kapital Tenaga Kerja

30

KKI 2 Subsektor Rendah Sedang

15 Makanan dan Minuman 100% 0%

16 Tembakau 100% 0%

17 Tekstil 100% 0%

18 Pakaian Jadi 100% 0%

19 Kulit dan barang dari kulit 0% 100%

20 Kayu, barang dari kayu, dan anyaman 100% 0%

21 Kertas dan barang dari kertas 100% 0%

22 Penerbitan, Percetakan, dan Reproduksi 100% 0%

24 Kimia dan Barang2 dari Bahan Kimia 100% 0%

25 Karet dan Barang2 dari Plastik 100% 0%

26 Barang Galian Bukan Logam 100% 0%

28 Barang2 dari Logam dan Peralatannya 100% 0%

31 Mesin Listrik Lainnya dan Perlengkapannya 100% 0%

36 Furniture dan Industri Pengolahan Lainnya 100% 0%

97% 3%Total

32

Tahun 2003

Rendah Sedang Tinggi 99% 0% 1% 89% 11% 0% 91% 0% 9%

100% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 91% 9% 0% 83% 8% 8% 96% 4% 0%

100% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0%

0% 0% 100% 100% 0% 0% 96% 2% 2%

Tahun 2004

KKI 2 Subsektor Rugi Rendah Sedang Tinggi 15 Makanan & minuman 1% 96% 1% 1% 16 Tembakau 0% 89% 11% 0% 17 Tekstil 0% 100% 0% 0% 18 Pakaian Jadi 0% 100% 0% 0% 19 Kulit & barang dari kulit 0% 83% 17% 0% 20 Kayu & anyaman 0% 100% 0% 0% 21 Kertas & brg dr kertas 0% 100% 0% 0% 22 Penerbitan 0% 91% 9% 0% 24 Kimia 0% 92% 0% 8% 25 Karet & Plastik 0% 96% 4% 0% 26 Barang Galian non Logam 5% 95% 0% 0% 28 Barang Logam 0% 100% 0% 0% 31 Mesin Listrik 0% 100% 0% 0% 36 furnitur 8% 92% 0% 0%

2% 95% 2% 1% Total

33

Tahun 2005 Tahun 2006

KKI 2 Subsektor Rendah Sedang Tinggi 15 Makanan & minuman 98% 1% 1% 16 Tembakau 89% 11% 0% 17 Tekstil 91% 9% 0% 18 Pakaian Jadi 100% 0% 0% 19 Kulit & barang dari kulit 83% 0% 17% 20 Kayu & anyaman 100% 0% 0% 21 Kertas & brg dr kertas 100% 0% 0% 22 Penerbitan 91% 0% 9% 24 Kimia 92% 8% 0% 25 Karet & Plastik 100% 0% 0% 26 Barang Galian non Logam 100% 0% 0% 28 Barang Logam 100% 0% 0% 31 Mesin Listrik 0% 0% 100% 36 Furnitur 92% 8% 0%

95% 3% 2% Total

Rendah Sedang Tinggi 94% 4% 2% 78% 11% 11%

100% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0%

91% 0% 9% 100% 0% 0%

88% 12% 0% 90% 5% 5% 75% 25% 0%

100% 0% 0% 92% 4% 4% 93% 4% 3%

34

0

1

2

3

4

5

-

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

Total Rugi Rendah Sedang Tinggi

Output (ribu Rp)

Tingkat teknologi (level) - Kanan

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000

Total

Rugi

Rendah

Sedang

Tinggi

Produktivitas (ribu Rp/orang)

Tenaga kerja (orang)

35

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

Rugi Rendah Sedang Tinggi

Tingkat Profit

Ra

sio

Ko

nse

ntr

asi

(Le

ve

l)

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

Rugi Rendah Sedang Tinggi

Tingkat Profit

Pe

rtu

mb

uh

an

Pe

nju

ala

n

37

α

α

38

Konstanta -3.212 * 1.935 0.033 0.028 -2.238 2.738

BIRate -0.054 0.088

BIRate(-1) -0.174 0.119 -0.145 0.118

TFP 0.397 *** 0.112 0.355 *** 0.115

TFP(-1) 0.106 0.122

CR 0.001 0.003

CR(-1) 0.000 0.003 0.000 0.003

Sales 0.004 0.005

Sales(-1) 0.008 0.006 0.006 0.005

REER 0.050 ** 0.020 0.033 0.028 0.041 0.028

Standard

ErrorPanel FEVariabel

Standard

Error

Standard

ErrorPanel FE Panel FE

(1) (2) (3)

VariabelStandard

Error

White

Standard

Error

Standard

Error

White

Standard

Error

Standard

Error

White

Standard

Error

BIRate -0.142 0.085 0.087

BIRate(-1) -0.302 *** 0.098 0.096 -0.305 *** 0.097 0.096

TFP 0.325 *** 0.117 0.098 0.294 *** 0.120 0.093

TFP(-1) -0.037 0.143 0.085

CR 0.000 0.003 0.002

CR(-1) 0.000 0.004 0.003 -0.000 0.004 0.003

Sales (REER <=82.24) -0.008 0.010 0.005

Sales (REER > 82.24) 0.004 0.006 0.009

Sales(-1) (REER <=82.24) -0.008 0.010 0.005 -0.080 0.045 0.051 -0.083 0.045 0.051

Sales(-1) (REER > 82.24) 0.004 0.006 0.009 0.007 * 0.005 0.004 0.006 * 0.005 0.004

Test Efek Threshold

Threshold

Confidence Interval

F

p-value

( 10%, 5%, 1% )

(1) (2) (3)

Koefisien Koefisien Koefisien

(1) (2) (3)

82.24

[81.49, 101.13]

82.24

[81.49, 101.13]

82.24

[81.49, 101.13]

3.15

0.03

(1.75, 2.58, 4.19)

2.37

0.03

(1.22, 2.01, 4.18)

0.88

0.42

(3.01, 4.09, 6.49)

Konstanta 1.443 *** 0.374 2.347 *** 0.403 1.646 *** 0.381

BIRate -0.129 0.084 0.092

BIRate(-1) -0.223 ** 0.092 -0.223 ** 0.091

TFP 0.343 *** 0.112 0.323 *** 0.115

TFP(-1) 0.078 0.123

CR 0.000 0.003

CR(-1) -0.000 0.003 -0.001 0.003

Sales 0.003 0.005

Sales(-1) 0.006 0.005 0.004 0.005

REERg 0.028 * 0.015 0.032 * 0.019 0.028 0.019

Standard


Standard

Error

Standard


(1) (2) (3)

39

VariabelStandard

Error

White

Standard

Error

Standard

Error

White

Standard

Error

Standard

Error

White

Standard

Error

BIRate -0.175 * 0.087 0.096

BIRate(-1) -0.302 *** 0.098 0.095 -0.305 *** 0.097 0.096

TFP 0.300 *** 0.117 0.093 0.294 *** 0.120 0.093

TFP(-1) -0.004 0.143 0.085

CR 0.000 0.003 0.002

CR(-1) 0.000 0.004 0.003 -0.000 0.004 0.003

Sales (REERg <=19.64) -0.011 ** 0.008 0.005

Sales (REERg > 19.64) 0.011 0.007 0.012

Sales(-1) (REERg <=-5.01) -0.080 0.045 0.051 -0.083 0.045 0.051

Sales(-1) (REERg >-5.01) 0.007 * 0.005 0.004 0.006 * 0.005 0.0035

Test Efek Threshold

Threshold

Confidence Interval

F

p-value

( 10%, 5%, 1% )

(1) (2) (3)

-5.01

[-5.71, 20.09]

3.15

0.05

(2.08, 3.01, 5.18)

-5.01

[-5.71, 20.09]

2.37

0.06

(1.73, 2.50, 3.99)

19.64

[-5.71, 20.09]

2.08

0.17

(2.86, 3.90, 5.21)

(2) (3)(1)


40

Konstanta -13.282 9.429 -9.762 8.932 -10.498 9.370

BIRate -0.148 0.424

BIRate(-1) 0.204 0.617 -0.007 0.563

TFP 0.716 0.594 0.508 0.763

TFP(-1) -2.562 3.291

CR 0.019 0.047

CR(-1) 0.152 0.153 0.014 0.057

Sales -0.038 0.041

Sales(-1) -0.072 0.092 -0.003 0.050

REER 0.171 * 0.092 0.238 0.161 0.145 0.093

Standard


Standard

Error

Standard


(1) (2) (3)

VariabelStandard

Error

White

Standard

Error

Standard

Error

White

Standard

Error

Standard

Error

White

Standard

Error

BIRate -0.287 0.474 0.304

BIRate(-1) -0.971 0.602 0.703 -0.941 0.533 0.584

TFP 0.250 1.099 1.151 1.782 1.511 1.648

TFP(-1) -4.805 3.494 4.004

CR -0.070 0.078 0.101

CR(-1) 0.306 0.177 0.217 -0.007 0.062 0.042

Sales(-1) (REER <=86.42) 0.198 0.126 0.129

Sales(-1) (REER >86.42) -0.079 0.066 0.063

Sales(-1) (REER <=92.50) 0.109 0.105 0.075

Sales(-1) (REER >92.50) -0.228 0.135 0.159

Sales (REER <=98.76) -0.040 0.071 0.043

Sales (REER > 98.76) 0.001 0.072 0.048

Test Efek Threshold

Threshold

Confidence Interval

F

p-value

( 10%, 5%, 1% )

(3)


86.42

[81.49, 101.13]

2.73

0.16

(3.45, 4.89, 6.76)

(1) (2)

92.50

[81.49, 101.13]

2.34

0.21

(3.43, 4.08, 6.06)

98.76

[81.49, 101.13]

0.27

0.87

(4.23, 5.06, 9.31)

(1) (2) (3)

41

Konstanta 5.631 ** 1.634 1.084 6.961 2.967 2.383

BIRate -0.738 * 0.431

BIRate(-1) -0.290 0.550 -0.297 0.550

TFP -0.657 0.578 0.380 0.772

TFP(-1) 0.982 2.298

CR -0.055 0.037

CR(-1) -0.033 0.093 -0.027 0.082

Sales -0.083 * 0.046

Sales(-1) 0.015 0.072 0.002 0.057

REERg 0.127 ** 0.579 0.042 0.117 0.075 0.098

(1) (2) (3)

VariabelStandard

Error

Standard

Error

Standard

ErrorPanel FE Panel FE Panel FE

VariabelStandard

Error

White

Standard

Error

Standard

Error

White

Standard

Error

Standard

Error

White

Standard

Error

BIRate -0.234 0.477 0.300

BIRate(-1) -0.905 * 0.693 0.533 -0.515 0.542 0.417

TFP 0.056 1.130 1.113 -0.194 1.095 0.739

TFP(-1) 0.010 2.787 2.260

CR -0.045 0.059 0.085

CR(-1) -0.029 0.121 0.099 0.012 0.065 0.041

Sales(-1) (REER <=-5.01) 0.074 0.228 0.094

Sales(-1) (REER >-5.01) -0.008 0.060 0.032

Sales(-1) (REER <=2.40) 0.032 0.103 0.081

Sales(-1) (REER >2.40) -0.078 0.119 0.057

Sales (REERg <=20.09) -0.035 0.060 0.033

Sales (REERg > 20.09) 0.020 0.080 0.051

Test Efek Threshold

Threshold

Confidence Interval

F

p-value

( 10%, 5%, 1% )

(1) (2) (3)

-5.01

[-5.71, 20.09]

0.19

0.66

(1.62, 2.23, 4.95)

2.40

[-5.71, 20.09]

0.61

0.44

(2.67, 3.93, 5.63)

20.09

[-5.71, 20.09]

0.54

0.71

(5.53, 7.18, 11.08)

(1) (2) (3)


42

Tahun Share Ekspor/Output

1990 9.05%

1995 10.01%

2000 0.00%

2005 0.00%

43

Konstanta 7.111 11.670 27.381 ** 13.289 -6.007 16.765

BIRate -0.186 0.321

BIRate(-1) -0.451 0.475 0.758 0.588

TFP 0.149 0.148 0.435 ** 0.163

TFP(-1) 0.070 0.098

CR 0.006 0.018

CR(-1) 0.033 * 0.016 0.020 0.015

Sales 0.004 0.064

Sales(-1) -0.105 * 0.062 -0.154 *** 0.058

REER -0.062 0.127 -0.296 * 0.148 0.025 0.173

Standard


Standard

Error

Standard


(1) (2) (3)

VariabelStandard

Error

White

Standard

Error

Standard

Error

White

Standard

Error

Standard

Error

White

Standard

Error

BIRate 0.019 0.317 0.239

BIRate(-1) -0.431 0.444 0.402 0.407 0.451 0.304

TFP 0.173 * 0.101 0.088 0.411 ** 0.137 0.170

TFP(-1) -0.089 0.124 0.074

CR 0.015 0.016 0.017

CR(-1) 0.049 ** 0.000 0.019 0.026 * 0.016 0.014

Sales (REER <=82.24) 0.254 0.161 0.162

Sales (REER > 82.24) -0.031 0.057 0.081

Sales(-1) (REER <=86.42) 0.200 0.097 0.119 -0.277 ** 0.087 0.108

Sales(-1) (REER >86.42) 0.026 0.051 0.039 -0.129 * 0.069 0.069

Test Efek Threshold

Threshold

Confidence Interval

F

p-value

( 10%, 5%, 1% )

(1) (2) (3)

86.42

[86.42, 101.13]

-1.28

0.06

(-1.96, -0.53, 2.39)

0.45

(7.03, 9.03, 16.33)

86.42

[81.49, 101.13]

5.90

0.15

(8.20, 10.43, 12.89)

82.24

[81.49, 101.13]

2.67

(1) (2) (3)


44

Konstanta 1.251 0.918 1.149 1.055 -3.796 ** 1.633

BIRate -0.211 0.306

BIRate(-1) 0.416 0.459 0.666 *** 0.298

TFP 0.220 ** 0.097 0.437 *** 0.129

TFP(-1) -0.059 0.231

CR 0.014 0.016

CR(-1) 0.029 0.020 0.023 0.015

Sales 0.049 0.467

Sales(-1) -0.024 0.048 -0.167 *** 0.058

REERg 0.091 * 0.054 0.074 0.171 -0.031 0.067

(1) (2) (3)

VariabelStandard

Error

Standard

Error

Standard


VariabelStandard

Error

White

Standard

Error

Standard

Error

White

Standard

Error

Standard

Error

White

Standard

Error

BIRate 0.019 0.317 0.239

BIRate(-1) 0.029 0.392 0.261 0.715 ** 0.373 0.303

TFP 0.173 * 0.101 0.088 0.487 *** 0.132 0.177

TFP(-1) 0.199 0.215 0.160

CR 0.015 0.016 0.016

CR(-1) 0.054 ** 0.020 0.022 0.033 * 0.017 0.017

Sales (REERg <=-5.01) 0.254 0.161 0.162

Sales (REERg > -5.01) -0.031 0.057 0.081

Sales(-1) (REERg <=3.90) -0.037 0.049 0.038 -0.217 *** 0.063 0.079

Sales(-1) (REERg >3.90) 0.151 0.127 0.115 -0.101 0.074 0.073

Test Efek Threshold

Threshold

Confidence Interval

F

p-value

( 10%, 5%, 1% )

3.90

[2.40, 20.09]

2.04

0.16

(4.35, 6.51, 9.20)

3.90

[-5.71, 20.09]

0.97

0.61

(5.85, 8.95, 14.48)

-5.01

[-5.71, 20.09]

2.67

0.32

(5.80, 8.27, 12.46)

(1) (2) (3)

(1) (2) (3)


α

45

Konstanta 22.459 12.985 7.520 8.080 4.350 10.099

BIRate -0.410 0.265

BIRate(-1) -0.244 0.460 0.059 8.080

TFP -1.366 *** 0.700 -0.280 0.559

TFP(-1) -0.408 0.326

CR -0.002 0.007

CR(-1) -0.007 0.009 -0.003 0.009

Sales 0.021 ** 0.010

Sales(-1) -0.010 0.014 -0.017 0.013

REER -0.123 0.097 -0.024 0.069 -0.002 0.079

(1) (2) (3)

VariabelStandard

Error

Standard

Error

Standard


46

VariabelStandard

Error

White

Standard

Error

Standard

Error

White

Standard

Error

Standard

Error

White

Standard

Error

BIRate -0.147 0.271 0.219

BIRate(-1) -0.476 0.528 0.534 0.325 0.495 0.339

TFP 0.698 0.655 0.504 -1.308 1.380 1.021

TFP(-1) -0.442 * 0.309 0.242

CR 0.003 0.008 0.007

CR(-1) -0.016 0.017 0.021 -0.005 0.017 0.016

Sales(-1) (REER <=82.24) -0.213 0.244 0.302

Sales(-1) (REER >82.24) -0.001 0.020 0.017

Sales(-1) (REER <=86.42) -0.094 0.105 0.073

Sales(-1) (REER >86.42) -0.005 0.022 0.017

Sales (REER <=101.13) 0.001 0.014 0.014

Sales (REER > 101.13) 0.239 *** 0.106 0.074

Test Efek Threshold

Threshold

Confidence Interval

F

p-value

( 10%, 5%, 1% )

86.42

[81.49, 101.13]

0.65

0.58

(3.06, 3.97, 5.59)

82.24

[81.49, 101.13]

0.90

0.34

(2.58, 3.64, 5.12)

101.13

[81.49, 101.13]

-0.87

0.78

(1.13, 2.75, 7.28)

(1) (2) (3)

(1) (2) (3)


Konstanta 6.507 *** 1.756 3.888 * 2.051 4.255 ** 2.164

BIRate -0.343 0.240

BIRate(-1) -0.321 0.361 -0.261 0.394

TFP -0.544 ** 0.265 -0.205 0.395

TFP(-1) -0.132 0.363

CR -0.008 ** 0.008

CR(-1) -0.011 0.010 -0.011 0.009

Sales 0.024 0.010

Sales(-1) -0.008 0.013 -0.007 0.013

REERg -0.039 0.028 -0.048 0.056 -0.059 0.041

(1) (2) (3)

VariabelStandard

Error

Standard

Error

Standard


47

VariabelStandard

Error

White

Standard

Error

Standard

Error

White

Standard

Error

Standard

Error

White

Standard

Error

BIRate -0.249 0.342 0.260

BIRate(-1) -0.049 0.343 0.298 -0.208 0.457 0.381

TFP -0.559 0.401 0.390 -0.225 0.439 0.379

TFP(-1) -0.447 * 0.302 0.237

CR -0.004 0.008 0.006

CR(-1) -0.006 0.016 0.015 -0.014 0.016 0.017

Sales(-1) (REERg <=3.90) -0.025 * 0.019 0.013

Sales(-1) (REERg >3.90) -0.003 0.017 0.015

Sales (REERg <=19.64) 0.018 0.029 0.028

Sales (REERg > 19.64) 0.020 0.017 0.014Sales(-1) (REERg <=20.09) -0.008 0.015 0.012

Sales(-1) (REERg >20.09) -0.434 ** 0.299 0.197

Test Efek Threshold

Threshold

Confidence Interval

F

p-value

( 10%, 5%, 1% )

(3)(2)


20.09

[-5.71, 20.09]

-0.20

0.81

(5.06, 6.85, 10.95)

[-5.71, 20.09]

2.08

0.17

(2.86, 3.90, 5.21)

3.90

[-5.71, 20.09]

1.25

0.63

(4.49, 5.90, 8.07)

(2) (3)(1)

(1)

19.64

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

-50

0

50

100

150

200

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Profit TFP - kanan

Persen Persen

48

Konstanta -3.212 * 1.935 0.033 0.028 -2.238 2.738

BIRate -0.054 0.088

BIRate(-1) -0.174 0.119 -0.145 0.118

TFP 0.397 *** 0.112 0.355 *** 0.115

TFP(-1) 0.106 0.122

CR 0.001 0.003

CR(-1) 0.000 0.003 0.000 0.003

Sales 0.004 0.005

Sales(-1) 0.008 0.006 0.006 0.005

REER 0.050 ** 0.020 0.033 0.028 0.041 0.028

(1) (2) (3)

VariabelStandard

Error

Standard

Error

Standard


49

VariabelStandard

Error

White

Standard

Error

Standard

Error

White

Standard

Error

Standard

Error

White

Standard

Error

BIRate -0.242 0.482 0.277

BIRate(-1) -0.881 * 0.773 0.484 -1.114 * 0.748 0.611

TFP -0.546 1.194 0.822 0.274 1.005 0.498

TFP(-1) 0.776 2.213 1.805

CR -0.001 0.005 0.001

CR(-1) 0.001 0.005 0.002 0.001 0.005 0.002

Sales(-1) (REER <=96.07) -0.035 0.051 0.051

Sales(-1) (REER >96.07) -0.094 * 0.081 0.049

Sales (REER <=101.13) 0.028 0.035 0.026

Sales (REER >101.13) 0.021 0.265 0.118Sales(-1) (REER <=101.13) -0.027 0.031 0.019

Sales(-1) (REER >101.13) -0.129 * 0.077 0.072

Test Efek Threshold

Threshold

Confidence Interval

F

p-value

( 10%, 5%, 1% )

101.13

[81.49, 101.13]

-1.23

0.42

(-0.65, -0.14, 3.07)

96.07

[81.49, 101.13]

-1.54

0.70

(5.93, 8.27, 18.39)

101.13

[81.49, 101.13]

-0.01

0.61

(1.06, 2.83, 7.46)

(1) (2) (3)

(1) (2) (3)


Konstanta 1.689 4.581 1.383 7.280 -0.484 4.265

BIRate -0.263 0.402

BIRate(-1) 0.165 0.580 0.254 0.411

TFP -0.061 0.900 0.362 0.704

TFP(-1) 0.060 1.521

CR -0.004 0.004

CR(-1) -0.003 0.004 -0.003 0.004

Sales 0.022 0.028

Sales(-1) -0.016 0.037 -0.015 0.024

REERg 0.142 ** 0.066 0.180 * 0.102 0.202 ** 0.083

VariabelStandard

Error

Standard

Error

Standard


(1) (2) (3)

50

VariabelStandard

Error

White

Standard

Error

Standard

Error

White

Standard

Error

Standard

Error

White

Standard

Error

BIRate 0.015 0.437 0.112

BIRate(-1) 0.047 0.476 0.265 -0.152 0.566 0.228

TFP 0.649 1.164 0.381 -1.964 1.687 1.987

TFP(-1) 0.143 1.213 0.786

CR 0.002 0.004 0.002

CR(-1) 0.001 0.004 0.001 -0.005 0.005 0.005

Sales(-1) (REERg <=-3.72) 0.000 0.033 0.022 0.550 0.392 0.452

Sales(-1) (REERg >-3.72) -1.994 * 0.623 1.026 -0.032 0.030 0.020

Sales (REERg <=0.93) -0.017 0.035 0.013

Sales (REERg >0.93) 0.111 0.047 0.070Sales(-1) (REERg <=20.09) 0.000 0.033 0.022

Sales(-1) (REERg >20.09) -1.994 * 0.623 1.026

Test Efek Threshold

Threshold

Confidence Interval

F

p-value

( 10%, 5%, 1% ) (3.24, 4.10, 7.55)

(3)

-3.72

[-5.71, 20.09]

1.66

0.44

(5.16, 7.39, 10.00)

(2)

20.09

[-5.71, 20.09]

-0.51

0.79

0.93

[-5.71, 20.09]

-0.43

0.11

(-0.27, 2.92, 5.79)

(1) (2) (3)


(1)

51

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Profit Pertumbuhan Penjualan

Rasio Persen

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Profit TFP Rasio Konsentrasi - Kanan

Persen

52

Konstanta 4,728 *** 1,535 58,378 *** 9,476 2,134 1,769

BIRate 0,005 0,616

BIRate(-1) 0,487 *** 0,106 0,137 0,176

TFP -0,299 0,399 -0,411 0,730

TFP(-1) -13,665 *** 2,264

CR 0,004 * 0,002

CR(-1) 0,006 ** 0,003 0,003 0,003

Sales -0,009 0,005

Sales(-1) -0,120 *** 0,021 0,005 0,006

REER -0,024 ** 0,011 -0,157 *** 0,031 0,002 0,027

Salesbbm -0,562 *** 0,063

Salesbbm(-1) -0,014 0,009 -0,008 0,011

Dummy BBM -33,893 *** 3,759 -3,375 *** 0,712 0,795 0,724

Standard


Standard

Error

Standard


(1) (2) (3)

53

VariabelStandard

Error

White

Standard

Error

Standard

Error

White

Standard

Error

Standard

Error

White

Standard

Error

BIRate 0,099 0,089 0,085

BIRate(-1) 0,290 0,116 0,181 0,024 0,092 0,071

TFP -0,975 0,640 0,616 -0,145 0,429 0,356

TFP(-1) -4,671 * 1,413 2,543

CR 0,006 * 0,003 0,003

CR(-1) 0,006 0,004 0,005 0,002 0,004 0,004

Salesbbm -0,579 *** 0,067 0,100

Salesbbm(-1) -0,547 *** 0,068 0,097 -0,563 0,069 0,106

Dummy BBM -35,059 *** 3,986 5,831 -34,167 *** 4,099 5,736 -33,474 4,166 6,384

Sales (REER <=82.24) -0,012 * 0,007 0,006

Sales (REER > 82.24) -0,016 0,010 0,011Sales(-1) (REER <=82.24) 0,484 0,158 0,351 0,446 0,16 0,336

Sales(-1) (REER >82.24) -0,038 *** 0,013 0,002 0,003 0,003 0,002

Test Efek Threshold

Threshold

Confidence Interval

F

p-value

( 10%, 5%, 1% ) (4.18, 6.40, 10.12)

KoefisienKoefisienKoefisien

(3)

82,24

[82.24, 82.24]

8,18

0,02

(2.46, 3.78, 6.48)

(2)

82,24

[82.24, 82.24]

2,45

0,27

(5.00, 6.82, 11.54)

(1)

82,24

[81.49, 101.13]

-2,53

0,79

(1) (2) (3)

Konstanta 2,661 ** 1,043 24,454 *** 5,775 2,346 1,478

BIRate -0,040 0,071

BIRate(-1) 0,366 *** 0,106 0,129 0,116

TFP -0,323 0,352 -0,401 0,560

TFP(-1) -7,157 *** 1,783

CR 0,004 0,003

CR(-1) 0,003 0,003 0,003 0,003

Sales -0,007 0,005

Sales(-1) -0,075 0,021 0,004 0,007

REERg 0,017 0,124 0,106 ** 0,044 0,006 0,038

Salesbbm -0,564 *** 0,063

Salesbbm(-1) 0,033 ** 0,016 -0,006 0,013

Dummy BBM -34,507 *** 3,774 -4,841 *** 1,601 0,661 0,951

Panel FE

(1) (2) (3)

VariabelStandard

Error

Standard

Error

Standard


54

VariabelStandard

Error

White

Standard

Error

Standard

Error

White

Standard

Error

Standard

Error

White

Standard

Error

BIRate 0,052 0,085 0,074

BIRate(-1) 0,290 0,116 0,181 0,024 0,092 0,071

TFP -0,872 * 0,584 0,480 -0,145 0,429 0,356

TFP(-1) -4,671 * 1,413 2,543

CR 0,005 * 0,003 0,003

CR(-1) 0,006 0,004 0,004 0,002 0,004 0,004

Salesbbm -0,591 *** 0,067 0,096

Salesbbm(-1) -0,547 *** 0,068 0,097 -0,563 *** 0,069 0,106

Dummy BBM -35,274 *** 3,976 5,741 -34,167 *** 4,099 5,736 33,474 *** 4,166 6,384

Sales (REERg <=3.90) -0,013 * 0,007 0,006

Sales (REERg >3.90) 0,005 0,009 0,007

Sales(-1) (REERg <=-5.01) 0,484 0,158 0,351 0,446 0,160 0,336

Sales(-1) (REERg >-5.01) -0,038 * 0,013 0,023 0,003 0,003 0,002

Test Efek Threshold

Threshold

Confidence Interval

F

p-value

( 10%, 5%, 1% ) (3.96, 6.36, 10.92)


(3)

-5,01

[-5.01, -5.01]

8,18

0,03

(3.93, 5.27, 8.72)

(2)

-5,01

[-5.01, 20.09]

2,45

0,28

(4.61, 6.12, 13.34)

(1)

3,90

[-5.71, 20.09]

0,65

0,61

(1) (2) (3)

α

α

55

Konstanta -12,810 8,602 -10,620 11,883 -10,198 12,267

BIRate 0,225 0,422

BIRate(-1) -0,028 0,550 -0,040 0,553

TFP 0,114 0,355 -0,052 0,380

TFP(-1) -0,001 0,393

CR 0,004 0,015

CR(-1) 0,008 0,018 0,008 0,018

Sales 0,014 0,027

Sales(-1) 0,219 0,031 0,022 0,031

REER 0,163 * 0,088 0,126 0,125 0,124 0,126

WTV 0,094 0,093

WTV(-1) 0,094 0,093 0,308 0,269 0,308 0,269

(1) (2) (3)

VariabelStandard

ErrorPanel FE

Standard

Error

Standard


VariabelStandard

Error

White

Standard

Error

Standard

Error

White

Standard

Error

Standard

Error

White

Standard

Error

BIRate -0.072 0.423 0.395

BIRate(-1) -0.493 0.621 0.526 -0.503 0.614 0.526

TFP 0.123 0.401 0.171 -0.010 0.424 0.222

TFP(-1) 0.089 0.525 0.101

CR -0.001 0.018 0.013

CR(-1) 0.020 0.023 0.014 0.022 0.023 0.015

WTV 0.013 0.197 0.169

WTV(-1) 0.378 0.452 0.241 0.374 0.444 0.252

Sales (REER <=98.76) 0.027 ** 0.039 0.014

Sales (REER >98.76) -0.030 0.050 0.031

Sales(-1)(REER <=86.42) -0.040 ** 0.060 0.020 -0.040 ** 0.060 0.020

Sales(-1) (REER >86.42) 0.050 ** 0.040 0.022 0.051 ** 0.040 0.024

Test Efek Threshold

Threshold

Confidence Interval

F

p-value

( 10%, 5%, 1% )

0.49 0.43 0.42

(2.41, 3.25, 5.83) (2.15, 3.34, 6.06) (2.14, 3.53, 5.65)

[81.49, 101.13] [81.49, 101.13] [81.49, 101.13]

0.56 0.03 0.00

98.76 86.42 86.42

(1) (2) (3)


56

Konstanta 2,785 * 1,560 0,985 2,521 1,587 2,469

BIRate -0,099 0,392

BIRate(-1) -0,415 0,425 -0,417 0,424

TFP 0,030 0,360 -0,113 0,377

TFP(-1) 0,717 0,403

CR 0,001 0,016

CR(-1) 0,060 0,018 0,007 0,183

Sales 0,008 0,028

Sales(-1) 0,013 0,030 0,014 0,030

REERg 0,009 0,067 -0,022 0,086 -0,020 0,083

WTV 0,041 0,095

WTV(-1) 0,041 0,095 0,335 0,277 0,333 0,277

VariabelStandard


Standard

Error

Standard

Error

VariabelStandard

Error

White

Standard

Error

Standard

Error

White

Standard

Error

Standard

Error

White

Standard

Error

BIRate -0.082 0.424 0.389

BIRate(-1) -0.597 0.627 0.594 -0.615 0.616 0.582

TFP 0.114 0.402 0.176 -0.069 0.428 0.213

TFP(-1) 0.106 0.556 0.113

CR 0.000 *** 0.018 0.001

CR(-1) 0.021 0.024 0.016 0.021 0.025 0.016

WTV 0.017 0.198 0.174

WTV(-1) 0.183 0.426 0.197 0.170 0.413 0.200

Sales (REER <=2.40) 0.027 0.045 0.019

Sales (REER >2.40) -0.010 0.040 0.021

Sales(-1) (REER <=20.09) 0.017 0.035 0.019 0.018 0.036 0.020

Sales(-1) (REER >20.09) 0.079 0.127 0.065 0.074 0.122 0.061

Test Efek Threshold

Threshold

Confidence Interval

F

p-value

( 10%, 5%, 1% ) (2.77, 3.53, 5.72) (4.51, 7.15, 14.42) (4.43, 6.69, 15.62)

0.40 -0.22 -0.23

0.70 0.85 0.81

2.40 20.09 20.09

[-5.71, 20.09] [-5.71, 20.09] [-5.71, 20.09]


(1) (2) (3)

(1) (2) (3)

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