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5:91
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iru Idfwru Prghov�1 Grfxphqw gh Wudydlo <43:/ LQVHH1
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Dfdghplf Suhvv/ ss1 58805:;1
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Ruodqgr/ IO= Dfdghplf Suhvv1
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Exvlqhvv F|foh/� Mrxuqdo ri Dssolhg Hfrqrphwulfv/ ;/ 564057:1
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uhfxuvlyh �owhu/� Mrxuqdo ri Wlph Vhulhv Dqdo|vlv/ 5/ 43604491
Ol/ G1 W1 dqg Gruipdq/ M1 K1 +4<<9, �Suhglfwlqj Wxuqlqj Srlqwv Wkurxjk
wkh Lqwhjudwlrq ri Pxowlsoh Prghov/� Mrxuqdo ri Exvlqhvv dqg Hfrqrplf
Vwdwlvwlfv/ 47/ 754075;1
Olq/ M1 O1 dqg Wvd|/ U1 +4<<9,/ �Fr0lqwhjudwlrq Frqvwudlqw dqg Iruhfdvwlqj1 Dq
hpslulfdo H{dplqdwlrq/� Mrxuqdo ri Dssolhg Hfrqrphwulfv/ 44/ 84<086;1
49
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Frpelqlqj Prghov dqg Iruhfdvwv zlwk Dssolfdwlrqv wr Iruhfdvwlqj Lqwhu0
qdwlrqdo Jurzwk Udwhv/� Mrxuqdo ri Hfrqrphwulfv/ 89/ ;<044;1
Plwwqln/ V1 +4<<3,/ �Pdfurhfrqrplf Iruhfdvwlqj Xvlqj Srrohg Lqwhuqdwlrqdo
Gdwd/� Mrxuqdo ri Exvlqhvv dqg Hfrqrplf Vwdwlvwlfv/ ;/ 538053;1
Shôd/ G1 +4<<8,/ �Iruhfdvwlqj Jurzwk zlwk Wlph Vhulhv/� Mrxuqdo ri Iruhfdvw0
lqj/ 47/ <:04381
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Plphr/ Xqlyhuvlgdg Fduorv LLL gh Pdgulg1
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Plphr/ Xqlyhuvlgdg Fduorv LLL gh Pdgulg1
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Urrwv dqg Uhgxfhg Udqn Vwuxfwxuh= Hvwlpdwlrq/ Olnholkrrg Udwlr Whvw/
dqg Iruhfdvwlqj/� Mrxuqdo ri Wlph Vhulhv Dqdo|vlv/ 46/ 68606:81
Vwrfn/ M1 K1 dqgZdwvrq/ P1 Z1 +4<;;,/ �Whvwlqj iru Frpprq Wuhqgv/� Mrxuqdo
ri wkh Dphulfdq Vwdwlvwlfdo Dvvrfldwlrq/ ;6/ 43<:0443:1
Wldr/ J1 F1 dqg Wvd|/ U1 V1 +4<;<,/ �Prgho Vshfl�fdwlrq lq Pxowlyduldwh Wlph
Vhulhv/� Mrxuqdo ri wkh Ur|do Vwdwlvwlfdo Vrflhw|/ Vhulhv E 84/ 48:05461
Ydklg/ I1 dqg Hqjoh/ U1 +4<<6,/ �Frpprq Wuhqgv dqg Frpprq F|fohv/� Mrxu0
qdo ri Dssolhg Hfrqrphwulfv/ ;/ 674�6931
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ulfv/ ;3/ 4<<05541
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Vsulqjhu0Yhuodj1
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vwdwlrqdu| Hfrqrplf Wlph Vhulhv/� Mrxuqdo ri Iruhfdvwlqj/ 46/ 4:<05431
\rxqj/ S1 F1/ Shguhjdo/ G1/ dqg W|fk/ Z1 +4<<;,/ �G|qdplf Kduprqlf Uh0
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lqj Ed|hvldq Vkulqndjh dqg Rwkhu Surfhgxuhv/� Mrxuqdo ri Hfrqrphwulfv/
73/ 4;605331
]hooqhu/ D1/ dqg Krqj/ F1 +4<<4,/ �Ed|hvldq Phwkrgv iru Iruhfdvwlqj Wxuqlqj
Srlqwv lq Hfrqrplf Wlph Vhulhv= Vhqvlwlylw| ri Iruhfdvwv wr Dv|pphwu|
ri Orvv Vwuxfwxuhv/� lq K1 Odklul dqg J1 Prruh +hgv1, Ohdglqj Hfrqrplf
Lqglfdwruv= Qhz Dssurdfkhv dqg Iruhfdvwlqj Uhfrugv/ Fdpeulgjh= Fdp0
eulgjh Xqlyhuvlw| Suhvv/ 45<04731
4:
]hooqhu/ D1/ Krqj/ F1/ dqg Plq/ F1 +4<<4,/ �Iruhfdvwlqj Wxuqlqj Srlqwv lq Lq0
whuqdwlrqdo Rxwsxw Jurzwk Udwhv Xvlqj Ed|hvldq H{srqhqwldoo| Zhljkwhg
Dxwruhjuhvvlrqv/ Wlph0Ydu|lqj Whfkqltxhv dqg Rwkhu Surfhgxuhv/� Mrxu0
qdo ri Hfrqrphwulfv/ 7</ 5:806371
]hooqhu/ D1/ dqg Plq/ F1 +4<<;,/ �Iruhfdvwlqj Wxuqlqj Srlqwv lq Frxqwulhv* Rxw0
sxw Jurzwk Udwhv= D Uhvsrqvh wr Plowrq Iulhgpdq/� Mrxuqdo ri Hfrqr0
phwulfv/ ;;/ 53605391
4;
&�'���Wdeoh 4= Exvlqhvv F|fohv Gxudwlrq dqg uhodwlrqvkls ehwzhhq h{sdqvlrqv
dqg uhfhvvlrqv= Dqqxdo Gdwd 4<7<04<<:1
Frxqwu| Qu ri Orqjhvw Vkruwhvw Qu ri Orqjhvw Vkruwhvw Dyhudjh
uhfhv uhfhvvlrq uhfhvvlrq h{s H{sdqvlrq H{sdqvlrq H{sdqvlrq
Dxvwudold 7 4 4 8 53 7 ;1;
4<830<:
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4<7<0<:
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4<830<:
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4<930<:
Iudqfh 5 4 4 6 57 7 48
4<840<:
Luhodqg 6 4 4 7 57 4 4418
4<7<0<:
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4<940<:
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4<8:0<:
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4<8:0<:
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4<7<0<:
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4<880<:
Vzhhghq 5 6 4 6 59 7 4716
4<7<0<:
Vzlw}huo1 8 6 4 8 49 7 ;
4<7<0<:
XN 6 5 5 7 58 7 431:
4<7<0<:
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4<
Wdeoh 5= JQS jurzwk udwhv fruuhodwlrq pdwul{ 4<8:04<<:
DXV EHO FDQ GHQ ILQ IUD LUO LWD MDS QHW QRU VSD VZ
DXV 4
EHO 164 4
FDQ 1:6 16< 4
GHQ 15; 17< 174 4
ILQ 173 17: 174 165 4
IUD 176 1;8 188 185 187 4
LUO 139 14; 133 145 158 144 4
LWD 157 1:3 17; 174 177 1:7 145 4
MDS 167 195 173 189 173 1:: 0134 19: 4
QHW 17; 1:7 17; 18< 16< 1:5 157 187 194 4
QRU 146 146 169 175 144 143 0138 159 13; 15: 4
VSD 156 1:5 183 178 179 1;4 146 19; 19; 194 145 4
VZH 186 196 17: 176 1:6 199 143 189 193 188 155 193 4
VZL 15; 19: 169 16; 186 1:5 146 199 198 186 136 19: 18
XN 16; 15< 184 184 179 173 159 164 165 164 13< 168 17
XVD 187 159 1:7 184 14; 175 148 173 16< 173 16< 168 15
53
Wdeoh 6
UPVH iru wkh rqh0|hdu0dkhdg iruhfdvw huuruv
Iruhfdvw Shulrg= 4<;<04<<:
Prgho
DU+6, LUZ g GLDUh IPd IP e IP f
Jurxs L +J4,
DXV 5148 5145 5138 5188 5165 5165
FDQ 51:7 5195 5193 41<; 7147 7147
XN 41:5 517: 5178 41:3 4135 4135
XVD 418: 4189 419; 5135 41<: 41<:
Jurxs LL +J5,
GHQ 4164 4136 31<8 41;7 51<4 5158
ILQ 7156 8137 8135 616< 61<; 61<:
VZH 5173 5185 5187 41<9 41<5 514:
QRU 418< 4196 4173 41<4 515:
Jurxs LLL +J6,
EHO 41:< 5148 41<4 418: 415; 418<
IUD 418; 41;9 5135 417< 416< 41:4
VSD 41;4 41;9 41:5 4187 4174 4185
QHW 4158 4176 4164 417; 415< 4169
LWD 41<5 4199 4199 419< 4175 4174
VZL 41:3 4196 418< 416< 414;
MDS 41;: 41<8 41<8 4198 41;:
Rwkhu frxqwulhv
LUO 6158 51<9 51;9 71<5
Phdq 5139 514; 5144 5139 513<+4, 5138+5,
Phgldq 41;3 41<4 41<6 41:: 419:+4, 41:<+5,
Qrwhv=
+4, Phdq dqg Phgldq frpsxwhg rqo| iurp 45 frxqwulhv/ doo exw Qruzd|/
Vzlw}huodqg/ Mdsdq dqg Luhodqg1
+5, Phdq dqg Phgldq frpsxwhg iurp 48 frxqwulhv/ doo exw Luhodqg1
d Idfwru prgho iru doo frxqwulhv1
e Idfwru prgho iru wkh wkuhh edvlf jurxs ri frxqwulhv= J4 +Dxvwudold/ Fdqdgd/
XN dqg XVD,/ J5 +Ghqpdun/ Ilqodqg dqg Vzhghq, dqg J6 +Ehojlxp/ Iudqfh/ Vsdlq/
Lwdo| dqg wkh Qhwkhuodqgv,1
f Idfwru prgho iru wkh h{whqghg jurxs ri frxqwulhv= J4 gh�qhg dv lq e/ J5D
+J5.Qruzd|, dqg J6D +J6.Vzlw}huodqg.Mdsdq,1
g QYU@4 dqg dq DU+7, iru wkh f|foh zdv �wwhg iru doo frxqwulhv1
h QYU@4 dqg dq DU+5, iru wkh f|foh zdv �wwhg iru doo frxqwulhv1
54
Wdeoh 7
Phdq dqg phgldq ri wkh UPVH
Iruhfdvw Shulrg= 4<;<04<<:
Prgho
DU+6, LUZ g GLDUh IP�
J4 Phdq 5138 5163 5153 5169
Phgldq 5156 514< 5158 5148
J5 Phdq 5198 51;9 51;7 51<7
Phgldq 5173 5185 5187 51<4
J5D Phdq 516; 5189 517; 519:
Phgldq 5133 513; 41<: 5154
J6 Phdq 419: 41:< 41:5 4169
Phgldq 41:< 41;9 41:5 416<
J6D Phdq 41:3 41:< 41:6 4185
Phgldq 41;4 41;9 41:5 4185
Qrwhv=
J4 +Dxvwudold/ Fdqdgd/ XN dqg XVD,1
J5 +Ghqpdun/ Ilqodqg dqg Vzhghq,1
J6 +Ehojlxp/ Iudqfh/ Vsdlq/ Lwdo| dqg wkh Qhwkhuodqgv,1
J5D +J5.Qruzd|,1
J6D +J6.Vzlw}huodqg.Mdsdq,1
g QYU@4 dqg dq DU+7, iru wkh f|foh zdv �wwhg iru doo frxqwulhv1
h QYU@4 dqg dq DU+h, iru wkh f|foh zdv �wwhg iru doo frxqwulhv1
- Phdq dqg phgldq ri wkh idfwru prghov �wwhg iru hdfk jurxs ri frxqwulhv1
55
Wdeoh 8
UPVH iru wkh rqh0|hdu0dkhdg iruhfdvw huuruv
Iruhfdvw Shulrg= 4<;<04<<:
Prgho
DU+6, LUZ g GLDUh IP e JQi Z j
Jurxs LLL +J6,
EHO 41:< 5148 41<4 415; 031<:4 4;
IUD 418; 41;9 5135 416< 031;:5 49
VSD 41;4 41;9 41:5 4174 031654 54
QHW 4158 4176 4164 415< 31436 55
LWD 41<5 4199 4199 4175 041354 <�
Phdq 419: 41:< 41:5 4169
Phgldq 41:< 41;9 41:5 416<
Qrwhv=
e Idfwru prgho iru wkh jurxs ri frxqwulhv J6 +Ehojlxp/ Iudqfh/ Vsdlq/ Lwdo|
dqg wkh Qhwkhuodqgv,1
g QYU@4 dqg dq DU+7, iru wkh f|foh zdv �wwhg iru doo frxqwulhv1
h QYU@4 dqg dq DU+5, iru wkh f|foh zdv �wwhg iru doo frxqwulhv1
i Judqjhu dqg Qhzerog whvw wr dvvhv wkh gl�huhqfh ehwzhhq wzr iruhfdvwlqj
surfhgxuhv1 Wkh rxwfrph ri wkh whvw vkrxog eh frpsduhg zlwk d Vwxghqw w zlwk :
ghjuhhv ri iuhhgrp1
j Zlofrq{rq*v udqn whvw wr dvvhv li wkh idfwru prgho kdv d ehwwhu iruhfdvwlqj
shuirupdqfh wkdq wkh DU+6, prgho1
- Wkh rxwfrph ri wkh whvw lv rqo| vljql�fdqw iru d fulwlfdo ydoxh ri 3138 iru
Lwdo|1
56
Wdeoh 9
UPVH iru wkh rqh0|hdu0dkhdg iruhfdvw huuruv
Iruhfdvw Shulrg= 4<;304<<:
Prgho
DU+6, LUZ g GLDUh IPd IP e IP f
Jurxs L +J4,
DXV 5165 516; 5164 51;6 5185 5185
FDQ 6135 51;; 51:9 51:5 51<4 51<4
XN 514< 5186 5179 5189 515; 515;
XVD 5134 5178 5159 5177 5177 5177
Jurxs LL +J5,
GHQ 41;: 41;5 41:< 515: 616: 5157
ILQ 51<: 61:4 61;9 51<< 61:8 6135
VZH 41<6 41;: 41;4 41:8 513; 41<7
QRU 5133 5165 514< 5196 5163
Jurxs LLL +J6,
EHO 41<5 5133 41<4 4197 415: 416<
IUD 4197 418< 4189 4198 4185 4189
VSD 4187 418: 4183 416; 4153 417:
QHW 41:: 41:3 41:4 4199 41<8 4173
LWD 5155 41;9 41:; 41:4 417; 41::
VZL 418: 41;7 41:5 4184 4157
MDS 41:4 41:7 41:5 4195 41<4
LUO 5189 5176 5174 7168
Phdq 513; 514: 5144 5156 5156+4, 41<9+5,
Phgldq 41<: 41<7 41;9 5134 514; 41<9
Qrwhv=
+4, Phdq dqg Phgldq frpsxwhg rqo| iurp 45 frxqwulhv/ doo exw Qruzd|/
Vzlw}huodqg/ Mdsdq dqg Luhodqg1
+5, Phdq dqg Phgldq frpsxwhg iurp 48 frxqwulhv/ doo exw Luhodqg1
d Idfwru prgho iru doo frxqwulhv1
e Idfwru prgho iru wkh wkuhh edvlf jurxs ri frxqwulhv= J4 +Dxvwudold/ Fdqdgd/
XN dqg XVD,/ J5 +Ghqpdun/ Ilqodqg dqg Vzhghq, dqg J6 +Ehojlxp/ Iudqfh/ Vsdlq/
Lwdo| dqg wkh Qhwkhuodqgv,1
f Idfwru prgho iru wkh h{whqghg jurxs ri frxqwulhv= J4 gh�qhg dv lq e/ J5D
+J5.Qruzd|, dqg J6D +J6.Vzlw}huodqg.Mdsdq,1
g QYU@4 dqg dq DU+7, iru wkh f|foh zdv �wwhg iru doo frxqwulhv1
h QYU@4 dqg dq DU+5, iru wkh f|foh zdv �wwhg iru doo frxqwulhv1
57
Wdeoh :
Phdq dqg phgldq ri wkh UPVH
Iruhfdvw Shulrg= 4<;304<<:
Prgho
DU+6, LUZ g GLDUh IP�
J4 Phdq 516< 5189 517: 5187
Phgldq 5159 517< 516< 616:
J5 Phdq 5159 517: 517< 613:
Phgldq 41<6 41;: 41;4 616:
J5D Phdq 514< 5176 5174 5146
Phgldq 41<: 5143 5133 515:
J6 Phdq 41;5 41:7 419< 417;
Phgldq 41:: 41:3 41:4 417;
J6D Phdq 41:: 41:9 41:3 4186
Phgldq 41:4 41:7 41:5 417:
Qrwhv=
J4 +Dxvwudold/ Fdqdgd/ XN dqg XVD,1
J5 +Ghqpdun/ Ilqodqg dqg Vzhghq,1
J6 +Ehojlxp/ Iudqfh/ Vsdlq/ Lwdo| dqg wkh Qhwkhuodqgv,1
J5D +J5.Qruzd|,1
J6D +J6.Vzlw}huodqg.Mdsdq,1
g QYU@4 dqg dq DU+7, iru wkh f|foh zdv �wwhg iru doo frxqwulhv1
h QYU@4 dqg dq DU+5, iru wkh f|foh zdv �wwhg iru doo frxqwulhv1
- Phdq dqg phgldq ri wkh idfwru prghov �wwhg iru hdfk jurxs ri frxqwulhv1
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0 50-0.1
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0 50-0.1
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0 50-0.1
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0.1Denmark
0 20 40-0.1
0
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0 50-0.1
0
0.1France
0 50-0.2
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0.2Ireland
0 20 40-0.1
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0 50-0.2
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0.2Japan
0 50-0.2
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0 50-0.1
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0 50-0.5
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0 50-0.1
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